CRITICAL PATH METHOD & PROJECT

EVALUATION REVIEW TECHNIQUE

Dr. Saurabh
SMVD University
Katra, J&K 182320
 Critical Path Method
Activity Immediate Predecessor Duration in Weeks
A ----- 5

B ----- 11

C ------ 8
Example 1
D C 7

E A 9

F A,B,D 4

G C 12

H C 5

I E,F,G 10

J F,G 5

K H 5

L H 9

M J,K 3

N L 6
Network Diagram Example 1
E(9)
2 5
I(10)
A(5) D1 D2

B(11) F(4) J(5)

1 3 6 8 10

D(7) G(12) K(5)

C(8) N(6)

4 7 9
H(5) L(9)
Network Diagram Example 1
Determine Critical Path……

5
20
E(9)
2 5

A(5) D1 I(10)
D2

15 20 25 30
0 B(11) J(5)
F(4)
1 3 6 8 10

G(12)
D(7) K(5)
N(6)
C(8)

4 7 9
8 H(5) L(9)

13 22
Network Diagram Example 1
Conditions for CPM:
Determine Critical Path……
20 (i) ESi=LCi
11 (ii) ESj=LCj
20
5 E(9) (iii) ESj-Esi=LCj-Lci=Dij
2 5

A(5) D1 I(10)
D2
16 27 30
0
15 25 30
0
B(11) F(4)
J(5)
1 3 6 8 10
20
G(12) 20
D(7) K(5)
N(6)
C(8)

8
4 7 9
8 H(5) L(9)
13 27

13 22
 Floats in Critical Path
Activity Earliest Earliest Latest Duration Total Free
Start Start Start (Dij) Float Float
(ESi) (ESj) (Lci) (TFij) (FFij) Total Float
A 0 5 11 5 6 0 = LCj – Esi - Dij
B 0 15 16 11 5 4

C 0 8 8 8 0 0

D 8 15 16 7 1 0
Free Float
E 5 20 20 9 6 6 = ESj – ESi - Dij
F 15 20 20 4 1 1

G 8 20 20 12 0 0

H 8 13 15 5 2 0

I 20 30 30 10 0 0

J 20 25 27 5 2 0

K 13 25 27 5 9 7

L 13 22 24 9 2 0

M 25 30 30 3 2 2

N 22 30 30 6 2 2

D1 5 15 16 0 11 10

D2 20 20 20 0 0 0
PROJECT EVALUATION REVIEW TECHNIQUE
The time estimate if the
• Optimistic Time Estimate (a) execution goes extremely
good

• Pessimistic Time Estimate (b) The time estimate if the

execution goes very bad

• Most Likely time estimate (m) The time estimate if the

execution is normal
(The probabilistic data for project activities generally follow beta
distribution) (a+4m+b)
Hence : Mean (µ) = &
6
2
2 (b-a)
Variance (σ ) =
6
PERT contd…
• The expected project Completion time is ∑ µi
i
Where µ i is the expected duration of the ith critical activity in the critical path

2
• And the variance of the project completion time = ∑ σi
2
Where σ i is the variance of the ith critical activity in the critical path

C= Due date then What is the probability of completing the project within due
date.
(x-µ)
Beta distribution is approximated to standard normal distribution z =
σ
x is the actual project completion time
µ is the expected project completion time
σ is the standard deviation of the expected project completion time
Where P (x<C) represents the probability that the project will be completed on or before the C time
units
(C-µ) (C-µ)
∑ P (x-µ) < = P z<
σ σ σ
PERT example 1
Activity Time Estimates
Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
1-2 3 6 15
1-6 2 5 14
2-3 6 12 30
2-4 2 5 8
3-5 5 11 17
4-5 3 6 15
6-7 3 9 27
5-8 1 4 25
7-8 4 19 22

A) Find the expected duration and variance of each activity

B) Draw project network
C) Find critical path and corresponding project completion time
D) What is the probability of completing the project on or before 35 months?
PERT example 1 contd..
Activity Time Estimates Expected Variance
Duration (Months)
Optimistic Most Pessimistic (Months)
Likely
1-2 3 6 15 7 4
1-6 2 5 14 6 4
2-3 6 12 30 14 16
2-4 2 5 8 5 1
3-5 5 11 17 11 4
4-5 3 6 15 7 4
6-7 3 9 27 11 16
5-8 1 4 25 7 16
7-8 4 19 22 17 9
PERT example 1 Network Diagram contd..
21
7
21
7 (14)
2 3 32
(11)
32
(7)
25 5 39
0 (5) (7)
12 (7) 39
0
1 4 8

(6) (17)

22
17
11
6 6 7
(11)
PERT example 1 contd..
• Probability of completing the project on or before 35 months
• Sum of variances of the critical activities i.e. 1-2, 2-3,3-5,5-8
2 2 2 2 2
σ = σ 1-2 + σ 2-3 + σ 3-5 + σ 5-8

0.5
• Hence: σ = (40) = 6.325 months

P (x<=35) = P[ (x-µ)/σ <= (35-39)/6.325]

= P[ z<= -0.6324 ]
= 1-P[ z<= -0.6324 ]

= 1-0.7357 = 0.2643

Hence the probability is 26.43 %

• Thank you