Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

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Vietnam Top 6 Military Turning
Points in 2017
Carlyle A. Thayer
December 21, 2017

Our editorial board listed the top six most impactful Vietnamese military-related
events in 2017. Below is the list (in no particular order of importance):
1. Received modern warships from Russia, including: (1) the sixth and last Kilo class
submarine. Vietnam procured from Russia and (2) the second pair of Gepard-class
frigates (the third ship was delivered and the fourth is on its way to Vietnam). In 2018,
the Vietnam People's Navy (VPN) will have total four Gepard class frigates. Unlike the
first two, the new frigates feature anti-submarine weapons and an advanced
propulsion system.
2 Ensured a safe and secure 2017 Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) Summit
in Đà Nẵng on November 5-11.
3. Dispatched its first female officer to a UN peacekeeping mission.
4. Sent the first pair of Gepard-class frigates to take part in joint military drills in
Malaysia (LIMA 2017) and Thailand (AMNEX-1) and ASEAN International Fleet Review
2017.
5. Took delivery of a U.S. Hamilton-class high-endurance cutter (that was previously in
service with the United States Coast Guard (USCG) for forty-eight years) and six coastal
patrol boats (Metal Shark 45-foot) for the Vietnam Coast Guard (VCG).
6. Took delivery of the first T-90S/SK Russian tanks.
TASKING and RESPONSE
Q1. Out of the six events above, which three do you think are the significant TURNING
POINTS in 2017 for the Vietnam People's Army? Please provide a few reasons for each
of your choices.
ANSWER: My top three turning points are:
[1] Received modern warships from Russia (Kilo submarines and Gepard frigates).
Reason: Vietnam has now acquired a four dimensional defence capability – land, sea,
air, and sub-surface. The enhanced Kilo submarines will be hard to detect and will
serve as a deterrent force against China. The new Gepard’s are configured for anti-
submarine warfare and thus counter a threat from China’s submarines.
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[2] Sent first pair of Gepard-class frigates to take part in overseas joint military
exercises.
Reason: Vietnam’s Navy lacks experience in blue water operations and practical
cooperation with other regional navies. The deployment of the modern Gepard
frigates to Malaysia and Thailand represent a continuation of Vietnam’s naval
diplomacy with other ASEAN members. In previous years a Gepard frigate visited
Indonesia, Brunei and the Philippines. These are the initial steps in gaining blue water
experience and in naval engagement with regional navies that will lead to combined
exercises.
[NOTE: in military terminology joint operations refers to operations between two or
more armed services of the same country, such as army-navy cooperation; combined
operations refer to cooperation between military forces of two or more countries]
[3] Vietnam took delivery of the first of its Russian T-90S/SK tanks.
Reason: Since 2006, Vietnam has given priority to the modernizations of its navy and
air-defence air force. In 2015 LTGEN Vo Van Tuan, Deputy Chief of the General Staff,
announced that in the next five years the ground forces would be the focus of
modernization. The procurement of modern T-90S/SK tanks represents the first major
commitment by Vietnam to modernize its land army.
Q2. And then, out of three you've chosen, if you have to pick one, which event do you
consider THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TURNING POINT in 2017 for the Vietnamese People's
Army?
Response: The most significant military turning point in 2017 was the acquisition of
the sixth enhanced Kilo-class submarine and the two Gepard frigates. These two
platform acquisitions directly contribute to transforming the Vietnam People’s Army
Navy into a modern blue water navy. The two systems can interact in exercises
designed to test the combat capabilities of the stealth submarines with the detection
capabilities of the Gepards. Both the surface and sub-surface ships will gain valuable
experience.
Q3. Based on the events you've chosen, could you give us your views on the
implications of these turning points on the Vietnam People's Army in 2018.
Response: The Vietnam People’s Army’s acquisition of new submarines, frigates and
combat tanks will pose major challenges in maintenance and repair and to Vietnam’s
defence budget. If the purchase of the T-90 combat tanks represents the start of army
modernization will this be at the expense of funding for naval and air modernization?
The Kilo submarines are very expensive to maintain. Military modernization in
Vietnam is vitally dependent on increased GDP growth of 7 per cent or more to meet
current operating costs plus the acquisition of new platforms and weapons. Budget
constraints could lead to restrictions on operations and live firing exercises.
In 2018 Vietnam Navy will be challenged to integrate these new platforms and systems
not only into their parent service – army and navy – but to integrate these forces with
the air-defence air force. This will only occur through joint exercises between
Vietnamese armed services and combined exercises with foreign military forces as
well. Vietnam will also need to develop a national defence strategy that promotes
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joint force operations through the integration of various weapon systems, platforms
and technologies. The implications are that though there are major challenges, the
Vietnam People’s Army should emerge as a more capably defence force.
Q4. Can you suggest any other events that are not on the list that you see as a turning
point for Vietnam People's Army in 2017? If yes, what is it, and why so?
I think a major turning point in 2017 not on the list was Vietnam’s decision to deploy
a level II field grade hospital to the UN peacekeeping mission in the Sudan. This will be
followed by the deployment of combat engineers to assist in demining and removal
of unexploded ordnance. The decision to assign the first female officer to UN
peacekeeping missions will add to Vietnam’s capability to interact with the wider
community during overseas deployments.
Vietnam will deploy its level II field grade hospital with the assistance of the Royal
Australian Air Force that will provide transport to Africa. This is a significant decision
by Vietnam to cooperate in practical and constructive activities, under the auspices of
the UN, with another foreign military force. This could mark a significant step forward
in Vietnam’s engagement with other foreign military forces.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam Top 6 Military Turning Points in 2017,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, December 21, 2017. All background briefs are
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