RAINFALL ESTIMATION USING AUTO-ESTIMATOR BASED ON CLOUD-TOP

TEMPERATURE OF HIMAWARI 8 SATELLITE COMPARED TO RAINFALL

OBSERVATION IN PANGKALPINANG METEOROLOGICAL STATION

Nurhastuti Anjar Rani, Aulia Nisa’ul Khoir*, Sausan Yulinda Afra

State Collage of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysic,

Jalan Perhubungan I no 5 Pondok Betung, Tangerang Selatan, Indonesia

*Corresponding author: aulianisaul@gmail.com

Abstract
The rainfall rate estimation method needs to be developed in Indonesia because its high
rate of variabilities. The method, called auto-estimator, is used to predict the potential of
rainfall occurrence in an area at a certain moment that constituted by algorithm
calculation which utilizes cloud-top temperature data from Himawari 8 satellite. Weather
satellite is satellite to monitor and capture real time weather behavior which occurs on the
earth’s surface. The function of weather satellite are identifying clouds types, measuring
wind direction and speed, tracking the tropical cyclon, measuring sea surface
temperature, estimating rainfall, etc. This study’s aims is to determine the validity and
accuracy of the auto-estimator method for predicting the rainfall rate on Pangkalpinang
Meteorological Station where located at 2.160 0N dan 106.140 0E. We used the data of
three months daily rainfall of Himawari 8 Satellite from January to March 2016. Actual
daily rainfall observation data from Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station was used to
verify data of the result by algorithm calculation. Results showed that the cold cloud-top
produced more rainfall than warmer tops. The results also showed the under estimate
value between rainfall estimation and actual rainfall observation on Pangkalpinang
Meteorological Station. The correlation between the data compared was 0.7 which means
it has positive relevancy. The rate of the relevancy was moderate, concluded by the value
of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of 68.7 mm.

Keywords: rainfall estimation, auto-estimator

Introduction
Rainfall is a form of precipitation any water droplet or ice crystal which falls from the clouds
base and reach the earth surface. The amount and intensity of rainfall are the most important variables
of weather. To understand these variables, rainfall observation is needed. In general, rainfall
observation is done conventionally by measuring rainfall which has reached the land surface using rain
gauge. But, there are some obstacles in this conventional method like the high price of the instruments
and observers should do routine maintenance. Additionally, rain gauge sometimes can not handle bad
weathers which occur in a certain area. These can become a serious problems in collecting time,
accurate, and continuous rainfall data. Besides, more detailed information for weather service,
including accurate rainfall forecast, also needs to be developed, especially in Indonesia because its
high rainfall rate variabilities. Consequently, rainfall estimation based on weather satellite needs to be
developed.
This study focused on calculating the accuracy of the result of rainfall estimation by auto-
estimator method during Januari to March 2016 in Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station where
located at 2.160 0S dan 106.140 0E. Auto-estimator method was used by Vicente to calculate rainfall
estimation on 1998. The method was based on algorithm which utilizes the cloud-top temperature data
from Infrared (IR) image which was produced by geostasioner satellite. Comparison between this
cloud-top temperature and weather radar image shows that convective cloud type can be characterized
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by a very low temperature of cloud-top, which ranges 195 K to 210 K (Vicente, 1998). One of the
most important facts about rain coluds used in the development of the auto-estimator is that clouds
with cold tops in the IR imagery produce more rainfall than those with warmer tops (Secherer and
Hudlow 1971; Scofield 1987).
Himawari 8 satellite is one of satellites which produces cloud-top temperature information.
Himawari 8 satellite was developed by Japan Meteorogical Agency (JMA) to observe weather and
climate paramaters occur in the earth. IR image from Himawari 8 satellite has 10 minutes temporal
resolution and 2 kilometers spacial resolution. Satellite image is generally used to identify clouds
distribution (Kristanti, 2015). IR image generates cloud-top temperature on celcius which can be
displayed using Satellite (SATAID).

Materials and Methods

Materials
Daily rainfall data from January to March 2016 has been used because these are the period of
rainy season in Pangkalpinang, which is a lot of rainy days occur and making the data representative.
There were two kinds of data used, temperature of cloud-top from Himawari 8 satellite as data for
estimation and actual daily rainfall observation data from Stasiun Meteorologi Pangkalpinang where
located at 2.160 0S dan 106.140 0E. Himawari 8 satellite has 10 minutes temporal resolution and 2
kilometers spasial resolution, which is provided by BMKG satellite.
Rainfall estimation
Auto-estimator, used by Vicente, was used to determine the rainfall estimation from Himawari 8
data satellite. Auto-estimator computes rainfall’s rate based on a nonlinear, power-law regression
relationship between cloud-top temperature (10.7µm brightness temperature), cloud-top growth
average, and cloud-top temperature gradient which were obtained from weather satellite image.
This study used cloud-top temperature data from Himawari 8 satellite to calculate the estimation
of the rainfall on milimeter (mm) (Swarinoto & Husain, 2012). On its algorithm, rainfall is assumed to
occur on the growing cloud-top (Eq 1).
R  1.1183 *1011 exp(3.6382 *10 2 * T 1.2 ) (1)
where R is the rainfall rate in millimeters per hour and T is the cloud-top temperature in Kelvins.
Verification
Verification was calculated for the result of calculated rainfall which is estimated by auto
estimator method and the result of actual rainfall from observation in Pangkalpinang Meteorological
Station based on statistic method which were Pearson correlation and Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE). Correlation is used to find the value which indicates the strength and the relation between the
amount of rainfall from estimation and observation (actual daily rainfall). The equation which is used
to calculate the coefficient of Person correlation is shown in Eq 2.
nxy  (x)(y )
r (2)
{nx  (x) 2 }{ny 2  (y ) 2
2

where r is Pearson coefficient correlation; x is n-th rainfall data calculated (mm); and y is n-th actual
rainfall data on Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station. The distribution value of r range from -1 to +1,
shows strong-weak relation between correlated variables. The stronger relation between correlated
variables, the greater the value of r obtained.
RMSE was used to show the value of error between the daily rainfall estimation by auto-
estimator and actual daily rainfall data from observation (Eq 3).

1 n
RMSE  
n i 1
( y1  y 2 ) 2 (3)

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where n is the amount of data; y1 is n-th rainfall data calculated (mm); and y2 is n-th actual rainfall data
in Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station (mm). The high value of RMSE means the difference
between daily rainfall estimation and daily rainfall observation is higher than the lower value of
RMSE. The best value of RMSE is 0, although it couldn’t happened in fact.

Results and Discussion

Table 1. Daily data comparison of rainfall estimation and actual rainfall observation on January 2016

Date Rainfall Rainfall Date Rainfall Rainfall

Estimation Observation Estimation Observation
53.0 17.6 17 0.0 5.2
1
12.7 0.0 18 0.0 29.2
2
0.0 0.0 19 23.7 0.2
3
0.0 0.0 20 14.7 37
4
0.0 0.0 21 0.8 34.9
5
0.0 0.9 22 0.0 19
6
0.0 20.5 23 163.9 12.1
7
0.2 0.8 24 12.8 13.6
8
0.0 0.0 25 0.5 0.0
9
0.0 0.0 26 0.0 0.0
10
0.0 27.9 27 0.0 5.1
11
3.8 0.0 28 0.0 5.3
12
1.8 0.0 29 0.0 43.2
13
0.0 0.0 30 0.0 0.0
14
0.0 0.0 31 0.0 0.0
15
41.2 0.0
16

Table 2. Daily data comparison of rainfall estimation and actual rainfall observation on February 2016

Date Rainfall Rainfall Date Rainfall Rainfall

Estimation Observation Estimation Observation
8.9 0.0 16 12.4 0.0
1
0.0 6 17 0.0 0.0
2
0.5 4 18 0.0 26.1
3
17.1 11.6 19 0.0 19.9
4
0.0 2.4 20 179.2 0.5
5
635.0 114.9 21 9.0 3.6
6
367.5 183.9 22 0.0 72.9
7
0.0 23.6 23 12.9 4.8
8
0.0 42.2 24 8.4 48.4
9
81.9 0.0 25 19.5 0.4
10
3.2 4.7 26 0.0 7.9
11
23.9 0.0 27 0.0 0.0
12
0.0 2.6 28 0.0 0.0
13
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 27.7 0.0 29 0.0 0.0
14
0.0 25.6
15

Table 3. Daily data comparison of rainfall estimation and actual rainfall observation on March 2016

Date Rainfall Estimation Rainfall Observation Date Rainfall Estimation Rainfall Observation
0.0 40.5 17 0.0 0.0
1
40.0 50.2 18 0.0 9.5
2
1.1 0.0 19 0.4 0.0
3
0.0 22.2 20 0.0 0.0
4
0.0 3 21 0.0 55.2
5
29.2 0.0 22 85.7 10
6
2.4 0.0 23 6.5 0.0
7
0.0 0.0 24 33.0 18.2
8
0.0 0.0 25 100.8 7.8
9
0.0 7 26 26.5 25.5
10
0.0 4.5 27 231.4 102.4
11
3.7 9.1 28 37.7 1.1
12
0.1 11 29 11.4 0.3
13
0.1 29.7 30 0.0 0.0
14
0.0 0.0 31 0.4 0.0
15
14.9 0.0
16

Based on table 1, 2, and 3, it shows that majority result of the rainfall estimation were lower
than the actual rainfall from observation in Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station. The correlation
between rainfall estimation and the rainfall observation is 0.7. It means that the relation between the
rainfall estimated by auto-estimator method and rainfall observation is moderate and also shows
possitive correlation. It indicated if the rainfall estimation increases, the actual rainfall also increases
and vice versa.
RMSE was calculated to show the difference value of rainfall estimation to rainfall observation.
The lower value of RMSE, the better result is obtained, because there are not much error is produced.
The value of RMSE in this study was 68.7 mm which means that the error of the estimation produced
by auto-estimator method is 68.7 mm per day. It is classified to high value to become an error of
rainfall estimation. It caused by auto-estimator method use the data obtained and calculated in the
clouds, not in the earth surface. These data were obtained from cloud-top temperature IR1 channel of
Himawari 8 satellite.

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 180
160

Curah Hujan (mm)

140 Rainfal Estimate
120
100
80 Rainfal
Observation
60
40
20
00

11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
1-Jan
3-Jan
5-Jan
7-Jan
9-Jan
Tanggal

Figure 1. Daily data comparison of rainfall estimation and actual rainfall observation on January 2016

700
600
Curah Hujan (mm)

Rainfall
500
Estimate
400
Rainfall
300
Observation
200
100
00
11-Feb

27-Feb
1-Feb
3-Feb
5-Feb
7-Feb
9-Feb

13-Feb
15-Feb
17-Feb
19-Feb
21-Feb
23-Feb
25-Feb

29-Feb
Tanggal
Figure 2. Daily data comparison of rainfall estimation and actual rainfall observation on February
2016

250
Curah Huajn (mm)

200
Rainfall
150 Estimate

100 Rainfall
Observation
50

00
1-Mar
3-Mar
5-Mar
7-Mar
9-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
31-Mar

Tanggal

Figure 3. Daily data comparison of rainfall estimation and actual rainfall observation on March 2016

Based on Figure 1, 2, and 3, it showed that the relevancy between rainfall estimation and actual
rainfall observation graph from Januari to March 2016 had irregular pattern. Considering in the
comparison of the relevancy, auto-estimator method was not proper for estimating rainfall in
Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station.

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Conclusion
Auto-estimator method is generally not suitable to estimation the rainfall in Pangkalpinang
Meteorological Station since the calculation results tend to under estimate. Correlation between the
rainfall estimation using auto-estimator and actual rainfall from observation is 0.7 and the Root Means
Square Error (RMSE) shows 68.7 mm. Figure of comparison between rainfall estimation and actual
rainfall also indicates irregular pattern.
The deviation of this estimation happened due to the data of cloud temperature which is used for
rainfall estimation calculated based on cloud-top temperature, while the rainfall measured as validation
occurs on the land surface. It means that the calculation only consider temperature on the cloud-top,
not enclose the temperature around the cloud.

Acknowledgment
We are grateful to Dr. Endarwin, S.Si., M.Si. for supporting this study.

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The 6th International Symposium for Sustainable Humanosphere

Humanosphere Science School 2016
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97