HURRICANE HARVEY

BRIEFING
5 PM CDT
Thursday August 24 2017
th

Prepared by:
Barry Goldsmith

NWSBrownsville weather.gov/rgv
 Overview Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey
 330 PM Center Location: 230 miles east-
southeast of Brownsville, moving northwest at
around 10 mph
 Steady to rapid strengthening as it moves east
of Lower TX coast tonight. Will be at least a Dry Air
Cat 3 before landfall along Coastal Bend
 Glancing blow for the RGV
 Prime Impacts include:
 Flooding of poor drainage areas Friday; possible
life-threatening in worst drainage areas
Cameron/Willacy
 Tide run-up will flood beach by sunset. Water
into the dunes overnight peaking at sunrise
Friday. Should not overtop seawall
 60 to 70 mph gusts at beach/bay with some
damage and power outages; 45 to 50 mph gusts
in Brownsville/Raymondville Corridor
 Main Rainfall timing: Friday, Sunrise through 5
PM (buffer: 3 AM through Sunset)
 Main Wind Timing: Sunrise through Sunset
(buffer: 3 AM through 10 PM)

8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv

Track and Warning/Watches Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey

8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv

Wind Speed Probabilities Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey
I
 Follow the “nose” (black line)
for strongest wind potential
and not just the “center” line
 Coastal Cameron, Willacy
have a 6 to 8 in 10 chance of
39 to 57 mph wind; a 4 to 6 in
10 chance for inland
Cameron/Willacy/Brooks,
mainly in gusts
 A 3 to 5 in 10 chance for
Hidalgo County, but only from
gusts in stronger bands
 These are cumulative
probabilities; the best chance
for gusts will be from 7 AM to
5 PM Friday
8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv
High TS Wind Speed Probabilities Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Tropical Cyclone Harvey

I
 Follow the “nose”(black line)
for strongest wind potential
and not just the “center” line
 Coastal Cameron, Willacy
have a 3 to 4 in 10 chance of
57 to 73 mph mainly in gusts.
Inland
Cameron/Willacy/Brooks, a 1
to 3 in 10 chance
 Marginal chances for Hidalgo
 These are cumulative
probabilities; the best chance
for gusts will be from pre-
dawn through 3 PM Friday

8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv

Hurricane Wind Speed Probs Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey

I
 Follow the “nose” (black
line) for strongest wind
potential and not just
the “center” line
 Coastal Bend (Corpus,
Aransas, Matagorda)
have signficant chances
 A 5 percent probability
for SPI, but 10 to 30
percent for Kenedy Co.
Coast

8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv

Wind Speed Arrival Times Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey

 The reasonable time for

arrival of tropical storm
force (39 mph or higher)
wind is toward daybreak
 Tropical Storm force
winds will continue
through 5 PM (Lower
Valley) and mid evening
(King Ranch) Friday on
“backside” of circulation,
favoring the coast.

8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv

Storm Surge Information Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey
 Storm Surge watch (SPI-
Mansfield) for potential for 3
feet of water depth right at
the shoreline. Warning for
likelihood of 3+ feet of water
depth at shoreline in Kenedy
 2 to 4 feet of water depth in
areas where water could
collect along bays/channels
 This would look similar to
Gustav (2008), see following
slide
 Beach floods by sunset
Thursday. Water into dunes
late night through 9 AM Friday.
High tide at sunrise.

8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv

Potential Impact/Actions - Surf Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey

Should look like this on SPI Thursday Night/Fri Noon (no sunshine, though)

 Water into dunes midnight to 10 AM Friday, highest at high tide. Impact

High tide is around sunrise Friday. Should remain shy of seawall.
 Rough and confused surf with waves 8 to 15 feet or higher during same
period
 Beach will be flooded for vehicles. Fishing/boating trips Friday/Saturday
should be postponed.
 Tide Water will “surge” outbound by noon; beach should “return” by mid
to late afternoon
8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv
 Potential Impact/Actions - Rain Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey

 Rainfall: 2 to 4” locally 6” (persistent bands) Cameron/Willacy; 1.-2.5” locally 4” Hidalgo/Brooks

(mainly eastern for highest). 4 to 7”, locally 8+ for Kenedy
 Potential impact: nuisance to potentially property threatening flooding 2 to 3 feet water depth in
poor drainage areas fairly widespread 6 inches to 1 foot of water depth in Cameron mainly Friday
9 AM to 6 PM
8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv
 Potential Impact – More Rain Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey

 Additional 0.5 to 1”, locally 2+ in heavier bands, for parts of RGV over weekend
 Could cause or exacerbate any flooding from prior rains Friday/Friday evening
 Area of concern Hebbronville through Sarita for heavier bands as Harvey “spins around” in South
Texas
8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv
Potential Impact/Actions - Wind Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey

 Coastal Cameron/Willacy:
 Favoring Friday all day. Sustained winds during peak period (9 AM to
5 PM) likely to be 45 to 55 mph with gusts 60 to 65 mph. Minor
damage to unfastened lightweight objects is possible along the shore.
 Damage to some trees and poorly built structures (trailers, etc.)
Damage significant to unfastened/tied down object such as tents and
temporary structures. Scattered power outages
 Remainder of Cameron/Willacy: Tie down or move
indoors tents, volleyball nets, trampolines, beach
furniture, temporary structures by Thursday
afternoon. 25 to 35 mph gusts 40 to 50 mph likely in
frequent rain bands.
 Hidalgo/Brooks: Tie down other lightweight objects (lawn
furniture, etc) inland in case of 35-45 mph gusts in stronger
cells Friday (into Friday night in Brooks)
8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv
Summary Brownsville/RGV
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Hurricane Harvey

 Preparations should be completed by sunset today

 Track of storm is now stable, so forecast confidence in
hazards and impacts is high
 Impacts will be potentially devastating for the Coastal
Bend (Corpus to Matagorda)
 Long duration rain and flooding may produce more
than 30 inches of rain along/near the mid and upper
Texas coast through Monday

8/24/2017 5:20 PM weather.gov/rgv

 HURRICANE HARVEY
BRIEFING
Next Update Will be Overnight Tonight

Please contact WFO Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley at

956-504-1432 ext. 2

You can get the latest graphics and information on this storm at hurricanes.gov

NWSBrownsville weather.gov/rgv