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ABSTRACT
The goal of current building codes is to protect life-safety and do not contain
provisions that aim to mitigate the amount of damage and economic loss suffered during an
earthquake. However, recent earthquakes in California and elsewhere have shown that
seismic events may incur large economic losses due to damage in buildings and other
structures, which in many cases were unexpected to owners and other stakeholders.
Performance-based earthquake engineering is aimed at designing structures that achieve a
performance that is acceptable to stakeholders. The approach developed the Pacific
Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) center has showed promise by providing a fully
probabilistic framework that accounts for uncertainty from the ground motion hazard, the
structural response, and the damage and economic loss sustained. This framework uses
building-specific loss estimation methodologies to evaluate structural systems and help
stakeholders make better design decisions.
The objectives of this dissertation are to improve and simplify the current PEER
building-specific loss estimation methodology. A simplified version of PEER’s framework,
termed story-based loss estimation, was developed. The approach pre-computes damage to
generate functions (EDP-DV functions) that relate structural response directly to loss for
each story. As part of the development of these functions the effect of conditional losses of
spatially dependent components was investigated to see if it had a large influence on losses.
The EDP-DV functions were also developed using generic fragility functions generated
using empirical data to compute damage of components that do not currently have
component-specific fragilities. To improve the computation of the aleatoric variability of
economic loss, approximate analytical and simulation methods of incorporating building-
level construction cost dispersion and correlations, which are better suited to use
construction cost data appropriately, were developed. The overall loss methodology was
modified to incorporate the losses due to demolishing a building that has not collapsed but
cannot be repaired due to excessive residual drift. Most of these modifications to PEER’s
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methodology were implemented into computer tool that facilities the computation of
seismic-induced economic loss.
This tool was then used to compute and benchmark the economic losses of a set of
reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame office buildings available in literature that were
representative of both modern, ductile structures and older, non-ductile structures. The
average normalized economic loss of the ductile frames was determined to be 25% of the
building replacement value at the design basis earthquake (DBE) for this set of structures.
The non-ductile frames exhibited much larger normalized losses that averaged 61%. Of the
structural and architectural design parameters examined in this study, the height of the
building demonstrated the largest influence on the normalized economic loss. One of the 4-
story ductile structures was analyzed as a case-study to determine the variability of its
economic loss. Its mean loss at the DBE was estimated to be 31% of its replacement value
with a coefficient of variation of 0.67. To examine the effect of losses due to building
demolition, four example buildings (two ductile and two non-ductile frames) were
analyzed. It was found that this type of loss had the largest effect on the ductile structures,
increasing economic loss estimates by as much as 45%.
The economic losses computed in this investigation are large even for the code-conforming
buildings. The aleatoric variability of these losses is also large and heavily influenced by
construction cost uncertainty and correlations. The story-based loss estimation method
provides an alternative way of assessing structural performance that is efficient and less
computationally expensive than previous approaches. This allows engineers and analysts to
focus on the input – the seismic hazard analysis and the structural analysis – and the output
– the design decisions – of loss estimation rather than on the loss estimation procedure
itself. Limiting the amount of time and resources spent on the loss estimation process will
hopefully facilitate the acceptance of performance-based seismic design methods into the
practicing engineering community.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work was primarily funded by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research
(PEER) Center with support from the Earthquake Engineering Research Centers Program of
the National Science Foundation. Additional financial assistance provided by the John A.
Blume Fellowship and the by the John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center.
This report was initially published as the Ph.D. dissertation of the first author. The
authors would like to thank Professors Gregory Deierlein, Helmut Krawinkler and Jack
Baker for their valuable and insightful comments on this research. The authors would also
like to acknowledge Professors Abbie Liel and Curt Haselton for the use of their structural
simulation results and Professor Judith Mitrani-Reiser for the use of her MDLA toolbox.
This research was not possible without their collaboration and their contributions to this
work.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................... II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................. IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... V
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. IX
LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... XI
1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1
1.1 MOTIVATION & BACKGROUND ................................................................................ 1
1.2 OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................. 3
1.3 ORGANIZATION OF DISSERTATION ........................................................................... 4
2 PREVIOUS WORK ON LOSS ESTIMATION ........................................................ 8
2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW............................................................................................... 8
2.2 REGIONAL LOSS ESTIMATION .................................................................................. 8
2.3 BUILDING-SPECIFIC LOSS ESTIMATION .................................................................. 10
2.4 LIMITATIONS OF PREVIOUS STUDIES ...................................................................... 14
3 STORY-BASED BUILDING-SPECIFIC LOSS ESTIMATION .......................... 17
3.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 17
3.2 STORY-BASED BUILDING-SPECIFC LOSS ESTIMATION ............................................ 20
3.2.1 Previous loss estimation methodology (component-based) ............................. 20
3.2.2 EDP-DV function formulation ......................................................................... 22
3.3 DATA FOR EDP-DV FUNCTIONS ........................................................................... 24
3.3.1 Building Components & Cost Distributions .................................................... 24
3.3.2 Fragility Functions Used .................................................................................. 28
3.4 EXAMPLE STORY EDP-DV FUNCTIONS ................................................................. 33
3.5 CONDITIONAL LOSS OF SPATIALLY INTERDEPENDENT COMPONENTS..................... 40
3.6 DISCUSSION OF LIMITATIONS OF STORY-BASED APPROACH & EDP-DV FUNCTIONS
50
3.7 CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................... 51
4 DEVELOPMENT OF COMPONENT FRAGILTIY FUNCTIONS FROM
EXPERIMENTAL DATA.................................................................................................. 53
4.1 AUTHORSHIP OF CHAPTER ..................................................................................... 53
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4.2 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 53
4.3 DAMAGE STATE DEFINITIONS ................................................................................ 56
4.4 EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS USED IN THIS STUDY ..................................................... 58
4.5 FRAGILITY FUNCTION FORMULATION .................................................................... 61
4.5.1 Fragility Functions for Yielding....................................................................... 64
4.5.2 Fragility Functions for Fracture ....................................................................... 74
4.6 CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................... 77
5 DEVELOPMENT OF COMPONENT FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS FROM
EMPIRICAL DATA ........................................................................................................... 79
5.1 AUTHORSHIP OF CHAPTER ..................................................................................... 79
5.2 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 79
5.3 SOURCES OF EMPIRICAL DATA .............................................................................. 82
5.3.1 Instrumented Buildings (CSMIP) .................................................................... 82
5.3.2 Buildings surveyed in the ATC-38 Report....................................................... 84
5.4 DATA FROM INSTRUMENTED BUILDINGS ............................................................... 86
5.4.1 Structural response simulation ......................................................................... 86
5.4.2 Motion-damage pairs for each building ........................................................... 92
5.5 DATA FROM ATC-38 ............................................................................................. 95
5.5.1 Structural response simulation ......................................................................... 95
5.5.2 Motion-damage pairs for each building ........................................................... 98
5.6 FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS FORMULATION ................................................................ 102
5.6.1 Procedures to compute fragility functions ..................................................... 102
5.6.2 Limitations of fragility function procedures .................................................. 107
5.6.3 Adjustments to fragility function parameters ................................................. 109
5.7 FRAGILITY FUNCTION RESULTS ........................................................................... 112
5.7.1 Comparison with generic functions from HAZUS ........................................ 118
5.8 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................... 119
6 DEVELOPMENT OF A STORY-BASED LOSS ESTIMATION TOOLBOX .. 121
6.1 PROGRAM STRUCTURE ........................................................................................ 121
6.2 GRAPHICAL USER INTER FACE ............................................................................. 124
6.2.1 Building Information & Characterization ...................................................... 124
6.2.2 EDP-DV Function Editor ............................................................................... 125
6.2.3 Main Window................................................................................................. 129
6.2.4 Hazard Module ............................................................................................... 130
6.2.5 Response simulation module.......................................................................... 132
6.2.6 EDP-DV Module............................................................................................ 137
6.2.7 Loss Estimation Module ................................................................................ 139
6.2.8 Loss Disaggregation and Visualization Module ............................................ 140
7 BENCHMARKING SEISMIC-INDUCED ECONOMIC LOSSES USING
STORY-BASED LOSS ESTIMATION .......................................................................... 143
7.1 AUTHORSHIP OF CHAPTER ................................................................................... 143
7.2 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 144
7.3 LOSS ESTIMATION PROCEDURE ........................................................................... 146
7.4 DESCRIPTION OF BUILDINGS ................................................................................ 147
7.4.1 Architectural Layouts and Cost Estimates (developed by Spear and Steiner)
149
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7.4.2 Nonlinear Simulation Models and Structural Analysis (computed by Liel and
Haselton) ..................................................................................................................... 152
7.5 ECONOMIC LOSSES .............................................................................................. 156
7.5.1 Expected losses conditioned on seismic intensity .......................................... 157
7.5.2 Expected Annual Losses ................................................................................ 163
7.5.3 Present value of life-cycle costs ..................................................................... 166
7.5.4 Comparison to Non-ductile Reinforced Concrete Frame Buildings .............. 168
7.5.5 Loss Toolbox Comparison ............................................................................. 170
7.5.6 Discussion of results relative to other loss estimation methodologies ........... 172
7.6 LIMITATIONS ....................................................................................................... 174
7.7 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................... 175
8 VARIABILITY OF ECONOMIC LOSSES ........................................................... 178
8.1 AUTHORSHIP OF CHAPTER ................................................................................... 178
8.2 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 178
8.3 TYPES OF LOSS VARIABILITY & CORRELATIONS ................................................. 180
8.3.1 Variability and Correlations in Construction Costs ....................................... 181
8.3.2 Variability and Correlation in Response Parameters ..................................... 189
8.3.3 Variability and Correlations in Damage Estimation ...................................... 198
8.4 VARIABILITY OF LOSS METHODOLOGY ............................................................... 200
8.4.1 Mean annual frequency of loss & loss dispersion condition on seismic
intensity ...................................................................................................................... 200
8.4.2 Dispersion of loss conditioned on collapse .................................................... 201
8.4.3 Dispersion of loss conditioned on non-collapse............................................. 202
8.4.4 Monte Carlo simulation method..................................................................... 211
8.4.5 Evaluation of quality of FOSM approximations ............................................ 212
8.5 DISPERSIONS OF ECONOMIC LOSS FOR EXAMPLE 4-STORY BUILDING .................. 223
8.5.1 Variability of loss conditioned on non-collapse at the DBE .......................... 224
8.5.2 Variability of loss conditioned on non-collapse as a function of IM ............. 233
8.5.3 Variability of loss conditioned on collapse as a function of IM .................... 237
8.5.4 Variability of loss as a function of IM & MAF of loss .................................. 240
8.6 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................... 244
9 SIGNIFICANCE OF RESIDUAL DRIFTS IN BUILDING EARTHQUAKE
LOSS ESTIMATION ....................................................................................................... 246
9.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 246
9.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................... 248
9.3 APPLICATIONS ..................................................................................................... 252
9.3.1 Description of Buildings Studied ................................................................... 252
9.3.2 Results ............................................................................................................ 255
9.3.3 Sensitivity of Loss to Changes in the Probability of Demolition ................... 264
9.3.4 Limitations of results & discussion of residual drift estimations ................... 268
9.4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................ 269
10 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................... 271
10.1 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... 271
10.2 FINDINGS & CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................. 272
10.2.1 Story-based Loss Estimation...................................................................... 272
10.2.2 Improved Fragilities in support of EDP-DV Function Formulation .......... 273
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10.2.3 Implementing loss estimation methods into computer tool ....................... 275
10.2.4 Benchmarking losses ................................................................................. 275
10.2.5 Improved estimates on the uncertainty of loss ........................................... 276
10.2.6 Accounting for Non-collapse losses due to building demolition ............... 278
10.3 FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS .................................................................................. 279
10.3.1 Data collection for fragility functions and repair costs .............................. 280
10.3.2 Improvements to building-specific loss estimation methodology ............. 281
REFERENCES .................................................................................................................. 283
APPENDIX A: COST DISTRIBUTIONS FOR EDP-DV FUNCTIONS .................. A-1
APPENDIX B: GENERIC STORY EDP-DV FUNCTIONS ....................................... B-1
APPENDIX C: SUBCONTRACTOR EDP-DV FUNCTIONS ................................... C-1
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LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 3.1 EXAMPLE BUILDING AND STORY COST DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MID-RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS ........... 26
TABLE 3.2 EXAMPLE COMPONENT COST DISTRIBUTION FOR A TYPICAL STORY IN A MID-RISE OFFICE
BUILDING ........................................................................................................................................... 27
TABLE 3.3 FRAGILITY FUNCTION & EXPECTED REPAIR COST (NORMALIZED BY COMPONENT REPLACEMENT
COST) PARAMETERS FOR DUCTILE STRUCTURAL COMPONENTS ......................................................... 28
TABLE 3.4 FRAGILITY FUNCTION & EXPECTED REPAIR COST (NORMALIZED BY COMPONENT REPLACEMENT
COST) PARAMETERS FOR NON-DUCTILE STRUCTURAL COMPONENTS .................................................. 28
TABLE 3.5 FRAGILITY FUNCTION & EXPECTED REPAIR COST (NORMALIZED BY COMPONENT REPLACEMENT
COST) PARAMETERS FOR NONSTRUCTURAL COMPONENTS ................................................................. 29
TABLE 4.4 SUMMARY OF YOUSEF ET AL.’S BUILDING SURVEY RESULTS FOR TYPICAL GIRDER SIZES OF
EXISTING BUILDINGS ......................................................................................................................... 68
TABLE 4.5 REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS FOR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IDRY AND L/DB ................................. 69
TABLE 4.6 RECOMMENDED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS FOR FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS ................................... 69
TABLE 4.7 AVERAGE VALUES FOR PARAMETERS IN EQUATION (9), RELATING L/DB AND IDR ..................... 71
TABLE 5.1 CSMIP BUILDING PROPERTIES .................................................................................................. 83
TABLE 5.2 GENERAL DAMAGE CLASSIFICATIONS (ATC-13, 1985)............................................................. 84
TABLE 5.3 ATC-13 DAMAGES STATES (ATC, 1985) .................................................................................. 84
TABLE 5.4 OCCUPANCY TYPES AND CODES (ATC-38) ............................................................................... 85
TABLE 5.5 MODEL BUILDING TYPES (ATC-38) .......................................................................................... 86
TABLE 5.6 FORMULAS USED FOR ESTIMATING STRUCTURAL BUILDING PARAMETERS ............................... 97
TABLE 5.7 PARAMETERS FOR SAMPLE FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS COMPUTED DIRECTLY AND WITH
ADJUSTMENTS FROM DATA FOR ACCLERATION NONSTRUCTRAL COMPONENTS (FROM CSMIP). ...... 111
TABLE 5.8 FRAGILITY FUNCTION PARAMETERS GENERATED FROM THE CSMIP DATA. ............................ 114
TABLE 5.9 FRAGILITY FUNCTION STATISTICAL PARAMETERS FOR SUBSETS OF ATC-38 DATA .................. 117
ix
TABLE 7.1 ARCHETYPE DESIGN PROPERTIES AND PARAMETERS ................................................................ 149
TABLE 7.2 COST ESTIMATES FOR STRUCTURES STUDIED ........................................................................... 152
TABLE 7.3 STRUCTURAL DESIGN INFORMATION AND COLLAPSE RESULTS (HASELTON AND DEIERLEIN 2007)
......................................................................................................................................................... 155
TABLE 7.4 EXPECTED LOSSES AND INTENSITY LEVELS .............................................................................. 156
TABLE 7.5 COMPARISON OF ASSUMED REPAIR COSTS FOR FINAL DAMAGE STATE OF GROUPS OF
COMPONENTS OF THE BASELINE 4-STORY BUILDINGS, NORMALIZED BY BUILDING REPLACEMENT
TABLE 8.1 STATISTICAL DATA OF CONSTRUCTION COSTS PER SUBCONTRACTOR (TOURAN & SUPHOT, 1997)
......................................................................................................................................................... 182
TABLE 8.2 CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS OF CONSTRUCTION COSTS BETWEEN DIFFERENT SUBCONTRACTORS
......................................................................................................................................................... 183
TABLE 8.3 EXAMPLE COST DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN CONSTRUCTION SUBCONTRACTORS OF EACH
COMPONENT IN A TYPICAL STORY OF AN OFFICE BUILDING .............................................................. 184
TABLE 8.4 AVERAGE OF EDP CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FROM 1000 REALIZATIONS ........................... 194
TABLE 8.5 STANDARD DEVIATION OF EDP CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FROM 1000 REALIZATIONS ....... 195
TABLE 8.6 COMPARISON OF STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF ECONOMIC LOSS DUE TO EDP VARIABILITY ONLY
USING FOSM (LOCAL DERIVATIVE) AND SIMULATION METHODS ..................................................... 218
TABLE 8.7 COMPARISON OF STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF ECONOMIC LOSS DUE TO EDP VARIABILITY ONLY
USING FOSM (AVERAGE SLOPE) AND SIMULATION METHODS .......................................................... 219
TABLE 8.8 COMPARISON OF INHERENT SUBCONTRACTOR LOSS CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS DUE TO EDP
VARIABILITY BETWEEN ANALYTICAL AND SIMULATION RESULTS .................................................... 230
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LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 3.3 EDP-DV FUNCTIONS FOR LOW-RISE, MID-RISE AND HIGH RISE DUCTILE REINFORCED CONCRETE
MOMENT FRAME OFFICE BUILDINGS ................................................................................................... 36
FIGURE 3.4 COMPARISON BETWEEN DUCTILE AND NON-DUCTILE STRUCTURAL COMPONENT EDP-DV
FUNCTIONS OF TYPICAL FLOORS ......................................................................................................... 37
FIGURE 3.5 COMPARISON OF STRUCTURAL EDP-DV FUNCTIONS BETWEEN PERIMETER AND SPACE FRAME
TYPE STRUCTURES .............................................................................................................................. 38
FIGURE 3.8 PROBABILITY TREE FOR COMPONENTS CONSIDERED TO ACT INDEPENDENTLY .......................... 44
FIGURE 3.9 PROBABILITY TREE FOR INDEPENDENT COMPONENTS THAT USE DOUBLE-COUNTING TO
ACCOUNT FOR DEPENDENCY .............................................................................................................. 45
FIGURE 3.10 PROBABILITY TREE FOR PROPOSED APPROACH TO ACCOUNT FOR DEPENDENT COMPONENTS.. 46
FIGURE 3.11 EDP-DV FUNCTIONS FOR THREE DIFFERENT APPROACHES OF HANDLING COMPONENT
DEPENDENCY...................................................................................................................................... 47
FIGURE 3.12 FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS FOR PRE-NORTHRIDGE STEEL BEAMS AND PARTITIONS ...................... 48
FIGURE 3.13 PROBABILITY TREE FOR PROPOSED APPROACH, INCLUDING OTHER DS3 PARTITION-LIKE
COMPONENTS ..................................................................................................................................... 49
FIGURE 3.14 EDP-DV FUNCTIONS FOR PROPOSED APPROACH VS TREATING COMPONENTS INDEPENDENTLY,
WITH DS3 PARTITION-LIKE COMPONENTS INCLUDED. ........................................................................ 49
FIGURE 4.1 TYPICAL DETAIL OF PRE-NORTHRIDGE MOMENT RESISTING BEAM-TO-COLUMN JOINT ......... 54
FIGURE 4.2 TYPICAL TEST SETUPS (A) SINGLE SIDED (B) DOUBLE SIDED ................................................... 59
FIGURE 4.3 YIELDING WITHOUT CORRECTION FOR SPAN-TO-DEPTH RATIO (A) A36 (B) A572 GRADE 50 . 65
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FIGURE 4.4 SPAN-TO-DEPTH RATIO’S RELATIONSHIP TO INTERSTORY DRIFT (A) A36 (B) A572 GRADE 50 67
FIGURE 4.5 RECOMMENDED FRAGILITY FUNCTION CORRECTED FOR SPAN-TO-DEPTH RATIO WITH 90%
CONFIDENCE BANDS ........................................................................................................................... 69
FIGURE 4.6 FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS FOR TO BE USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN ANALYTICAL PREDICTION
OF IDRY (A) A36 (B) A572 GRADE 50................................................................................................. 73
FIGURE 4.7 EXAMPLE FRAGILITY FUNCTION FOR W36 BEAM GENERATED BY USING (A572 GRADE 50) .. 74
FIGURE 4.8 FRAGILITY FUNCTION FOR FRACTURE ...................................................................................... 75
FIGURE 4.9 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IDR AT FRACTURE AND BEAM DEPTH FOR ALL SPECIMENS. .............. 76
FIGURE 4.10 RECOMMENDED FRAGILITY FUNCTION CORRECTED FOR BEAM DEPTH WITH 90% CONFIDENCE
BANDS ................................................................................................................................................ 77
FIGURE 4.11 EXAMPLE CORRECTED FRAGILITY FOR W36 WHEN BEAM DEPTH IS KNOWN. .......................... 77
FIGURE 5.1 CONTINUOUS MODEL USED TO EVALUATE STRUCTURAL RESPONSE ......................................... 87
FIGURE 5.2 EXAMPLE OF SIMULATED STRUCTURAL RESPONSE COMPARED TO RECORDED RESPONSE ....... 88
FIGURE 5.3 CSMIP BUILDING RESPONSE COMPARISON SUMMARY SHEET LAYOUT .................................. 90
FIGURE 5.4 CSMIP BUILDING SUMMARY SHEET LAYOUT .......................................................................... 93
FIGURE 5.5 EXAMPLE OF RESULTS FROM SIMULATED STRUCTURAL RESPONSE. ........................................ 98
FIGURE 5.6 ATC-38 BUILDING SUMMARY SHEET LAYOUT ...................................................................... 100
FIGURE 5.7 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBSERVED VALUES AND VALUES PREDICTED BY A LOGNORMAL
DISTRIBUTION FOR DAMAGE STATE DS2 OF DRIFT-SENSITIVE NONSTRUCTURAL COMPONENTS BASED
FIGURE 5.8 DEVELOPING FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS USING THE BOUNDING EDPS METHOD. .......................... 106
FIGURE 5.9 LIMITATIONS OF FINDING UNIQUE SOLUTIONS FOR FRAGILITY FUNCTION PARAMETERS (A)
MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS FOR LEAST SQUARES AND MAXIMUM LIKELIKHOOD METHODS (B) MULTIPLE
FIGURE 5.10 SAMPLE COMPARISONS OF DIFFERENT METHODS TO FORMULATE FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS (A)
EXAMPLE OF ALL THREE METHODS AGREEING (B) EXAMPLE OF 2 OUT OF 3 METHODS AGREEING. .... 109
FIGURE 5.11 (A) SAMPLE FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS COMPUTED FROM DATA FOR ACCLERATION
NONSTRUCTRAL COMPONENTS (FROM CSMIP) (B) SAMPLE FUNCTIONS AFTER ADJUSTMENTS. ....... 111
FIGURE 5.12 CSMIP FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS FOR (A) STRUCTURAL DAMAGE VS. IDR (B) NONSTRUCTURAL
DAMAGE VS. IDR AND (C) NONSTRUCTURAL VS. PBA. ................................................................... 113
FIGURE 5.13 EXAMPLE OF ATC-38 DATA SHOWING LIMITATIONS OF DATA .............................................. 116
FIGURE 5.14 FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS USING SUBSETS OF ATC-38 DATA BASED ON TYPE OF STRUCTURAL
SYSTEM (A) C-1: CONCRETE MOMENT FRAMES – DRIFT-SENSITIVE (B) S-1: STEEL MOMENT FRAMES –
DRIFT-SENSITIVE (C) C-1: CONCRETE MOMENT FRAMES – ACCELERATION-SENSITIVE (D) S-1: STEEL
xii
FIGURE 6.2 BUILDING CHARACTERIZATION MODULE ................................................................................ 125
FIGURE 6.3 EDP-DV FUNCTION EDITOR MODULE ..................................................................................... 126
FIGURE 6.4 ADDING EDP-DV FUNCTIONS ................................................................................................ 127
FIGURE 6.5 VIEWING / EDITING / DELETING EDP-DV FUNCTIONS ............................................................ 128
FIGURE 6.6 MAIN WINDOW OF TOOLBOX ................................................................................................... 129
FIGURE 6.7 DEFINING THE SEISMIC HAZARD CURVE .................................................................................. 131
FIGURE 6.8 IMPORTING RESPONSE SIMULATION DATA. .............................................................................. 134
FIGURE 6.9 COLLAPSE FRAGILITY ADJUSTMENTS AND EDP EXTRAPOLATION OPTIONS ............................ 136
FIGURE 6.10 RESPONSE SIMULATION VISUALIZATION. .............................................................................. 137
FIGURE 6.11 ASSIGNING EDP-DV FUNCTIONS. ......................................................................................... 138
FIGURE 6.12 LOSS ESTIMATION MODULE - INCLUDING BUILDING DEMOLITION LOSSES GIVEN THAT THE
STRUCTURE HAS NOT COLLAPSED..................................................................................................... 139
FIGURE 6.13 TOTAL AND DISAGGREGATION RESULTS FOR EXPECTED ECONOMIC LOSSES AS A FUNCTION OF
GROUND MOTION INTENSITY ............................................................................................................ 141
FIGURE 6.14 TOTAL AND DISAGGREGATION RESULTS FOR EXPECTED ANNUAL LOSSES. ............................ 142
FIGURE 7.1 GROUND MOTION PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD CURVES (GOULET ET AL., 200&) ............ 148
FIGURE 7.2 EXAMPLE ARCHITECTURAL LAYOUT FOR HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS ............................................. 151
FIGURE 7.3 PEAK EDPS ALONG BUILDING HEIGHT FOR DESIGN 4-S-20-A-G (HAZELTON AND DEIERLEIN,
2007) ............................................................................................................................................... 153
FIGURE 7.4 COLLAPSE FRAGILITIES FOR 1, 2, 4, 8, 12 AND 20 STORY SPACE-FRAME BUILDINGS (HASELTON
AND DEIERLEIN, 2007) ..................................................................................................................... 154
FIGURE 7.5 EXPECTED LOSS GIVEN IM FOR 4-S-20-A-G (WITH COLLAPSE LOSS DISAGGREGATION) ......... 157
FIGURE 7.6 NORMALIZED EXPECTED ECONOMIC LOSS RESULTS AT DBE FOR 30 CODE-CONFORMING RC
FRAME STRUCTURES ......................................................................................................................... 158
FIGURE 7.7 EFFECT OF HEIGHT ON NORMALIZED EXPECTED LOSSES CONDITIONED ON GROUND MOTION
INTENSITY: (A) SPACE FRAMES AS A FUNCTION OF NORMALIZED GROUND MOTION INTENSITY (B)
FIGURE 7.8 EFFECT OF STRONG-COLUMN, WEAK-BEAM RATIO ON: (A) NORMALIZED EXPECTED LOSS AS A
FUNCTION OF NORMALIZED GROUND MOTION INTENSITY (B) NORMALIZED EXPECTED LOSS AT THE
FIGURE 7.10 EAL RESULTS FOR 30 CODE-CONFORMING RC FRAME STRUCTURES .................................... 164
FIGURE 7.11 RESULTS OF MEAN ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF COLLAPSE FOR 30 CODE-CONFORMING RC FRAME
STRUCTURES (HASELTON AND DEIERLEIN, 2007). ........................................................................... 165
xiii
FIGURE 7.12 SCATTER PLOTS AND CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS BETWEEN: (A) EAL & MAF OF COLLAPSE
(B) MAF OF COLLAPSE & YIELD BASE SHEAR COEFFICIENT (C) EAL & YIELD BASE SHEAR
COEFFICIENT .................................................................................................................................... 166
FIGURE 7.13 PRESENT VALUE OF NORMALIZED ECONOMIC LOSSES OVER 50 YEARS FOR 30 CODE-
CONFORMING RC FRAME STRUCTURES: (A) PRESENT VALUE OF LOSSES FOR EACH BUILDING AT A
DISCOUNT RATE OF 3% (B) RANGE OF PRESENT VALUE OF LOSSES AS A FUNCTION OF DISCOUNT RATE
FIGURE 7.15 COMPARISON OF EAL DISAGGREGATION OF COLLAPSE AND NON-COLLAPSE LOSSES FOR NON-
DUCTILE AND DUCTILE FRAMES........................................................................................................ 170
FIGURE 7.16 COMPARISON OF VULNERABILITY CURVES FROM THIS STUDY AND FROM MDLA: (A)
PERIMETER FRAMES (B) SPACE FRAMES ............................................................................................ 171
1. FIGURE 8.1 CORRELATION BETWEEN SUBCONTRACTOR LOSSES DUE TO EDP VARIANCE (A) EDP-DV
FUNCTION FOR SUBCONTRACTOR K (B) EDP-DV FUNCTION FOR SUBCONTRACTOR K' ..................... 187
FIGURE 8.2 EDP DATA FROM INCREMENTAL DYNAMIC ANALYSIS AT INCREASING IM LEVELS ................. 190
FIGURE 8.3 EXAMPLE OF EDP RELATIONSHIPS WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF CORRELATION ...................... 191
FIGURE 8.4 CORRELATION TRENDS AT LOW AND HIGH SEISMIC INTENSITY LEVELS................................... 192
FIGURE 8.5 VARIATION OF EDP CORRELATION WITH INTENSITY LEVEL.................................................... 193
FIGURE 8.6 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AVERAGE AND STANDARD ERROR OF CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
ESTIMATES ....................................................................................................................................... 195
FIGURE 8.7 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 97.5TH AND 2.5TH PERCENTILES CONFIDENCE BANDS WITH MEDIAN
ESTIMATES OF CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS .................................................................................... 196
FIGURE 8.8 CONFIDENCE BANDS USING CLOSED FORM SOLUTION FOR DIFFERENT NUMBER OF GROUND
MOTIONS (A) BANDS FOR N = 10, 20, 40 AND 80 (B) COMPARISON WITH DATA FROM EXAMPLE
FIGURE 8.9 EDP-DV FUNCTIONS FOR ACCELERATION-SENSITIVE COMPONENTS IN A TYPICAL FLOOR FOR
THE EXAMPLE 4-STORY REINFORCED CONCRETE MOMENT-RESISTING FRAME OFFICE BUILDING ...... 206
FIGURE 8.10 EDP-DV FUNCTIONS FOR DRIFT-SENSITIVE COMPONENTS IN A TYPICAL FLOOR FOR THE
EXAMPLE 4-STORY REINFORCED CONCRETE MOMENT-RESISTING FRAME OFFICE BUILDING ............. 207
FIGURE 8.11 FOSM APPROXIMATIONS (A) LINEAR FUNCTION (B) NON-LINEAR FUNCTION ........................ 215
FIGURE 8.12 COMPUTING THE DERIVATIVE OF G(X) (A) LOCAL DERIVATIVE (B) AVERAGE SLOPE WITHIN
REGION THAT X WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN. ................................................................................ 217
FIGURE 8.13 TYPICAL CASES OF EDP-DV FUNCTIONS FOR FOSM APPROXIMATIONS (A) UNDER-ESTIMATE
AT SMALL VALUES (B) OVER-ESTIMATE AT LARGE VALUES (C) GOOD APPROXIMATION AT MIDDLE
xiv
FIGURE 8.14 QUANTITATIVE EXAMPLES OF FOSM APPROXIMATIONS USING THE DIFFERENT SLOPE
METHODS ......................................................................................................................................... 221
FIGURE 8.15 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EACH SUBCONTRACTOR LOSS (A) DISPERSIONS DUE TO EDP
VARIANCE (B) DISPERSIONS DUE TO CONSTRUCTION COST VARIANCE ............................................... 225
FIGURE 8.16 MEAN VALUES OF ECONOMIC LOSS FOR EACH SUBCONTRACTOR AT THE DBE ..................... 227
FIGURE 8.17 COEFFICIENT OF VARIATIONS FOR EACH SUBCONTRACTOR LOSS (A) DISPERSIONS DUE TO EDP
VARIANCE (B) DISPERSIONS DUE TO CONSTRUCTION COST VARIANCE .............................................. 228
FIGURE 8.18 EFFECT OF SUBCONTRACTOR CORRELATION DUE TO EDP VARIABILITY .............................. 229
FIGURE 8.19 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF LOSS CONDITIONED ON NON-COLLAPSE AT THE DBE CONSIDERING
DIFFERENT TYPES OF VARIABILITY AND CORRELATIONS .................................................................. 231
EDP & COST VARIABILITY (D) EDP & COST VARIABILITY WITH EDP CORRELATIONS (E) EDP & COST
VARIABILITY WITH CONSTRUCTION COST CORRELATIONS (F) EDP & COST VARIABILITY WITH EDP &
SA(T1) ≤ 1.0G BASED ON THE RESULTS FROM THE SIMULATION METHOD. ........................................ 237
FIGURE 8.24 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION FOR OF LOSS (A) CONDITIONED ON NON-COLLAPSE (B)
CONDITIONED ON COLLAPSE. ............................................................................................................ 239
FIGURE 8.25 NORMALIZED EXPECTED LOSS AND DISPERSION GIVEN IM FOR EXAMPLE 4-STORY OFFICE
BUILDING ......................................................................................................................................... 241
FIGURE 8.26 COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION AS A FUNCTION OF INTENSITY LEVEL FOR EXAMPLE BUILDING. 242
FIGURE 8.27 MAF OF LOSS (A) EFFECT OF CORRELATIONS (B) COMPARISON BETWEEN ANALYTICAL AND
SIMULATION METHODS ..................................................................................................................... 243
FIGURE 9.1: PROBABILITY OF COLLAPSE FOR DUCTILE 4-STORY REINFORCED CONCRETE STRUCTURE
(HASELTON AND DEIERLEIN, 2007) ................................................................................................. 255
FIGURE 9.2: EDP DATA AS A FUNCTION OF BUILDING HEIGHT FOR DUCTILE 4-STORY REINFORCED
CONCRETE STRUCTURE (HASELTON AND DEIERLEIN, 2007)............................................................. 255
FIGURE 9.3 NORMALIZED EXPECTED ECONOMIC LOSS AS A FUNCTION OF GROUND MOTION INTENSITY. .. 257
xv
FIGURE 9.4 EFFECT OF CONSIDERING LOSS DUE TO DEMOLITION CONDITIONED ON NON-COLLAPSE ON
NORMALIZED EXPECTED ECONOMIC LOSSES FOR A 4-STORY BUILDING AT THREE DIFFERENT LEVELS
FIGURE 9.5 COMPARISON OF THE PROBABILITY OF COLLAPSE WITH THE PROBABILITY OF BUILDING BEING
DEMOLISHED DUE TO RESIDUAL DEFORMATION AS A FUNCTION OF GROUND MOTION INTENSITY. ... 260
FIGURE 9.6 EFFECT OF CONSIDERING LOSS DUE TO DEMOLITION CONDITIONED ON NON-COLLAPSE ON
NORMALIZED EXPECTED ECONOMIC LOSSES FOR A 12-STORY BUILDING AT THREE DIFFERENT LEVELS
FIGURE 9.7 LOSS RESULTS FOR NON-DUCTILE BUILDINGS STUDIED (A) 4-STORY (B) 12-STORY ................ 262
FIGURE 9.8 COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE PROBABILITY OF COLLAPSE AND THE PROBABILITY OF
DEMOLITION FOR (A) A 4-STORY DUCTILE STRUCTURE (B) A 12-STORY DUCTILE STRUCTURE (C) A 4-
STORY NON-DUCTILE STRUCTURE AND (D) A 12 STORY NON-DUCTILE STRUCTURE. ......................... 264
FIGURE 9.9 DIFFERENT DISTRIBUTIONS FOR PROBABILITY OF DEMOLITION GIVEN RIDR (A) VARYING THE
MEDIAN (B) VARYING THE DISPERSION ............................................................................................ 266
FIGURE 9.10 RESULTS FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF PROBABILITY OF DEMOLITION GIVEN RIDR FOR 4-
STORY DUCTILE REINFORCED CONCRETE MOMENT FRAME OFFICE BUILDING. .................................. 267
xvi
CHAPTER 1
1 INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 1 1 Introduction
(Hall, 1995). Although the levels of ground motion intensity these seismic events
produced were considered relatively moderate, buildings experienced extensive structural
damage requiring substantial repairs.
A prominent example of how current design procedures fall short of building owners’
and users’ needs, was the nonstructural damage sustained by the Olive View Hospital
during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Located in Sylmar, California, this six-story
structure was designed beyond minimum building code requirements in response to the
structural failure of the previous Olive View Hospital building during the 1971 San
Fernando earthquake. The replacement structure’s lateral force resisting systems consisted
of a combination of moment frames with concrete and steel plate shearwalls. Although the
building only experienced minor structural damage during the Northridge event, substantial
nonstructural damage was sustained. Particularly, sprinkler heads, rigidly constrained by
ceilings, ruptured when their connecting piping experienced large displacements. The
resulting water leakage caused the hospital to temporarily shut down. Not only was the
essential facility not able to treat injuries resulting form the earthquake, 377 patients being
treated at the time of the earthquake had to be evacuated (Hall, 1995). While the structure
conformed to building code standards for hospitals, the nonstructural damage resulted in the
loss of functionality of an essential facility directly after a seismic event. This damage
suffered by the Olive View Hospital illustrates how structural designs using prescriptive
codes may not be enough to achieve satisfactory seismic performance.
Damage, losses and loss of functionality sustained in these seismic events prompted
structural engineers to formulate preliminary documents (Vision 2000, FEMA 273 &
FEMA 356) that attempt to provide some guidance on how to achieve different levels of
performance that help stakeholders and design professionals make better and more
informed decisions that meet project-specific needs. Although these first generation
guidelines were a step towards making earthquake engineering adopt design approaches
that are more performance-based, the performance levels defined in these documents were
often qualitative, not well-defined and, consequently, open to subjectivity.
Recent advancements in performance-based earthquake engineering methods have
demonstrated the need for better quantitative measures of structural performance during
seismic ground motions and improved methodologies to estimate seismic performance. The
Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center has conducted a significant
amount of research to address this need, by formulating a framework that quantifies
CHAPTER 1 2 Introduction
performance in metrics that are more relevant to stakeholders, namely, deaths (loss of life),
dollars (economic losses) and downtime (temporary loss of use of the facility). The PEER
methodology uses a probabilistic approach to estimate damage and the corresponding loss
based on the seismic hazard and the structural response. PEER’s work on performance-
based earthquake engineering is currently being implemented into seismic design standards
and guidelines by the Applied Technology Council through the ATC-58 project (ATC,
2007).
Building-specific economic loss estimation methods have advanced in recent years.
However, the process to calculate loss can become complicated because of the type and
amount of required computations. Practicing structural engineers are hard-pressed to
devote extra time towards detailed loss estimations in addition to delivering the structural
design. The successful adoption of performance-based design in the near future may hinge
on simplifying the loss estimation procedures and minimizing the computational effort
these procedures require.
1.2 OBJECTIVES
The goals of this is investigation are to improve areas of PEER’s economic loss
estimation framework by incorporating aspects that have been previously ignored, and, to
simplify it to decrease the amount of information required or time involved in performance
estimations. The resulting methods are then implemented into a computer tool that
estimates earthquake-induced economic losses as a quantitative metric of structural
performance. Specifically, the objectives of this study are as follows:
Introduce a new approach of estimating earthquake-induced monetary loss that
sums the losses by sub-contractor and by story, rather than by component, which is
more consistent with the way costs of construction projects are calculated and
requires less information to conduct the assessment.
Develop a simplified methodology of estimating mean economic losses by
consolidating fragility functions and normalized repair costs and collapsing out the
intermediate step of estimating damage to generate functions that relate response
simulation data directly to economic loss (EDP-DV functions).
Account for loss of a building’s entire inventory, given that the structure has not
collapsed, by developing generic fragility functions that estimate damage of
CHAPTER 1 3 Introduction
components that do not have specific fragilities. These fragilities will be derived by
establishing when damage initiates using empirical data, and then inferring the
probabilistic distribution parameters of more severe damage states.
Develop a computer toolbox that implements the new approach and to make
recommendations on how to address the computational challenges encountered.
Use the newly developed methods and tools to evaluate seismic-induced economic
losses of reinforced concrete moment frame buildings, including both ductile
concrete frames (that conform to current building seismic codes) and non-ductile
frames (that are representative of buildings built pre-1967 in California).
Propose a method of quantifying uncertainty on economic losses that incorporates
the correlations of construction costs at the building level. Cost correlations at the
component level have previously been considered at the building component-level,
however construction cost data is typically produced in terms of the entire building
or per subcontractor. A new procedure to integrate this type of data into the
computation of dispersion of economic losses is presented.
Evaluate the influence of the number of ground motions considered during
structural response analysis on the quality of estimates of response simulation
correlations.
Incorporate losses of a building that has not collapsed, but requires demolition due
to excessive residual drifts.
CHAPTER 1 4 Introduction
Chapter 3 details the proposed method of simplifying PEER’s current building-
specific loss estimation methodology. It proposes collapsing out the intermediate step of
estimating damage by making assumptions on the building cost distribution among floors,
systems and components based on the building’s use, occupancy and structural system. The
formulation of generic EDP-DV functions is presented and example functions for
reinforced concrete moment frame office buildings are presented. The EDP-DV functions
are investigated to see which parameters have the greatest influence and how the issue of
conditional losses in spatially-interacting components affects the value of predicted loss.
Chapter 4 supplements the EDP-DV functions presented in Chapter 3 by
developing fragility functions for pre-Northridge beam-column joints. These functions can
be used to predict damage for pre-1994 steel moment frame buildings that have been found
to experience fracture at interstory drifts lower than previously expected. Results from
previous experimental studies are consolidated to formulate lognormal cumulative
distribution functions that predict yielding and fracture in these joints as a function of
interstory drift. Other parameters that significantly influence the functions were also
investigated.
Chapter 5 addresses the issue of estimating damage for components that do not
currently have fragility functions such that the entire building inventory is accounted for in
EDP-DV functions. Generic fragility functions are derived from empirical data gathered
during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Two sources of data are considered in this study.
The first source generates motion-damage pairs from damage evaluations of instrumented
buildings documenting seismic performance (Naeim 1998). The second source relates
structural response to damage using damage data from the ATC-38 report (ATC 2000,
which documents damage for structures located close to ground motion stations) and
structural simulation to infer the response parameters. Functions are formulated for several
types of component groups, however, fragilities for drift-sensitive and acceleration sensitive
non-structural elements are of particular interest as these types of components typically lack
enough data to predict damage. The generic fragility functions for non-structural elements
presented here are used in Chapter 3 to supplement the formulation of the EDP-DV
functions. They are used for building components that do not have specific fragilities
generated from experimental data.
Chapter 6 documents the implementation of the simplified method presented in
Chapter 3, into an MS-EXCEL based computer tool. Despite the simplifications proposed
CHAPTER 1 5 Introduction
in this study, the performance-based framework still involves many variables and several
integrations that require a large amount of computation, necessitating a computer tool that
can facilitate these calculations. The tool also has the capability of computing economic
losses due to building demolition conditioned on non-collapse (as described in detail in
Chapter 9).
Chapter 7 presents economic seismic loss estimations for a set of archetypes of
reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame buildings, designed and analyzed by previous
investigators (Haselton and Deierlein, 2007, Liel and Deierlein, 2008), using the simplified
method presented in Chapter 3 and the computer tool illustrated in Chapter 6. The results
presented here are used to quantify loss results for both code-conforming structures, and
non-ductile concrete structures, representing buildings of an older vintage. The study
benchmarks performance in terms of economic loss for these types of structures, and
attempts to identify building parameters that have the strongest influence on seismic
performance.
Chapter 8 presents a modified approach of incorporating correlations into the
calculation of the uncertainty in predicting earthquake-induced economic losses. Aslani
and Miranda (2005) first introduced methods on how to incorporate repair cost correlations
at the component-level. However, estimates of these correlations at the component level
are not available, and collecting this type of data can be difficult. There is, however,
dispersion and correlation data available for construction costs between different
construction trades at the building level (Touran and Suphot, 1997). The approach
proposed in this investigation attempts to incorporate these correlations at the building
level, by first breaking down the costs associated with repair or replacement of each
component into different construction trades. The dispersions are then aggregated and
propagated for each trade until the uncertainty of the loss is calculated at the building level
where the construction cost correlations can be included. The influence of accounting for
these correlations on the loss dispersions is evaluated. The effect of correlations from
simulation data is also evaluated and the appropriate number of ground motions considered
in response simulation to accurately capture these correlations is investigated.
Chapter 9 proposes modifying the PEER loss estimation framework to incorporate
an intermediate building damage state in which demolition of a building becomes necessary
when excessive damage that cannot be repaired has occurred. The proposed approach uses
peak residual interstory drift as an engineering demand parameter to predict the likelihood
CHAPTER 1 6 Introduction
of having to demolish a building after an earthquake, given that the building has not
collapsed. The simplified method of Chapter 3 is used to evaluate losses of example
buildings taken from the study conducted in Chapter 6, to illustrate the effect of considering
these types of losses. It is shown that incorporating losses to due possible demolition has a
significant impact on predicted losses due to seismic ground motions.
Chapter 10 summarizes the results and contributions from this investigation.
Conclusions are drawn from these results and extended to identify what impact they have
on the field earthquake engineering. Finally, areas of future research are identified to lay
the groundwork for future investigators.
CHAPTER 1 7 Introduction
CHAPTER 2
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Current seismic codes are aimed primarily at protecting life-safety by providing a
set of prescriptive provisions. Recently a few documents have been published which have
laid the ground work for performance-based design. In the United States, the two most
notable are Vision 2000 (SEAONC, 1995) and ASCE-41 (which was based the pre-standard
document FEMA-356 and the previous guidelines FEMA-273). Both documents define
discrete global performance goals. For instance, ASCE-41 (ASCE, 2007) describes four
structural performance levels as follows: operational, immediate occupancy, life safety and
collapse prevention. However measuring performance in this way is difficult because the
performance levels are not clearly defined or easy to work with. Recent research suggests
structural performance should be quantified in more useful terms on which stakeholders can
base their decisions. The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center suggests
that economic losses, down time and number of fatalities are better seismic performance
measures. Thus, there is a great need to develop procedures to estimate economic loss that
a structure is likely to experience in future seismic events.
PEER has established a fully probabilistic framework that uses the results from
seismic hazard analysis and response simulation to estimate damage and monetary losses
incurred during earthquakes. The methodology is divided into four basic stages that
PEER
Methodology
Engineering Demand
Parameter (EDP)
EDP-DV
Damage Measure Functions
(DM)
Decision Variable
(DV)
The third and fourth stages of PEER’s methodology, as described in the previous
section, involve building-specific damage and loss estimation procedures that have been
developed at the component level. It is assumed that the total loss in a building, LT, is equal
the sum of repair and replacement costs of the individual components damaged during
seismic events. This loss can be computed as:
n
LT L j L j 1 L j 2 L j 3 ... L j n (3.2)
j 1
where Lj is the loss in the jth component and n is the total number of components in the
building (note that all the losses in this equations are random variables). Every damageable
component considered in the analysis is assigned fragility functions to estimate damage
based on the level of structural response. This is what will be herein referred to as
component-based loss estimation.
Previous studies (Krawinkler & Miranda 2006, Aslani 2005, Mitrani-Reiser, 2007)
have already derived the mathematical expressions used in PBEE. Calculating expected
losses conditioned on ground motion intensity, E[LT | IM], is the summation between losses
due to total collapse multiplied by the probability of collapse and the losses due to non-
collapse multiplied by the probability of non-collapse as shown by the following
expression,
E LT | IM E LT | NC , IM P NC | IM E LT | C P C | IM (3.3)
where E[LT | NC,IM] is the expected loss in the building provided that collapse has not
occurred for ground motions with an intensity level of IM, E[LT | C] is the expected loss in
the building when collapse has occurred in the building, P(NC | IM) is the probability that
the structure will not collapse conditioned on the occurrence of an earthquake with ground
motion intensity, IM, and P(C | IM) is the probability that the structure will collapse
N N
E LT | NC , IM E L j | NC , IM E L j | NC , IM (3.4)
j 1 j 1
where E[Lj |NC , IM] is the expected loss in the jth component given that global collapse
has not occurred at the intensity level IM, and Lj is the loss in the jth component defined as
the cost of repair or replacement.
Using the total probability theorem, the expected loss given no collapse has
occurred can be calculated as follows:
E L j | NC , IM E L j | NC , EDPj dP EDPj edp j | NC , IM (3.5)
0
where E[Lj | NC, EDPj] is the expected loss in the jth component when it is subjected to an
engineering demand parameter, EDPj, P(EDPj > EDPj | NC, IM ), is the probability of
exceeding EDPj, in component j given that collapse has not occurred in the building and the
level of ground motion intensity IM is im. Further detail on the estimation of the
conditional probability P(EDPj > EDPj | NC, IM ) and probabilistic seismic response
analysis, can be found in Aslani and Miranda (2005).
where m is the number of damage states in the jth component, E[Lj | NC, DSi] is the
expected value of the normalized loss in component j when it is in damage state i , DSi, and
P(DS = dsi | NC, EDPj) is the probability of the jth component being in damage state i, dsi ,
given that it is subjected to a demand of EDPj. The probability of being in each damage
state for component j can be obtained from component-specific fragility functions. The
reader is referred to Aslani and Miranda (2005) for further details on the development of
component-specific fragility functions.
The first step in developing story EDP-DV functions is collapsing out the third
intermediate step of damage estimation by combining information from loss functions and
fragility function as shown in equation (3.6). This requires consolidating all the fragility
and expected repair costs for each component. However, if the repair costs are normalized
by the component’s replacement value, aj, this computation can be conducted without
having to provide these values for every damage state, which will save a substantial amount
of number keeping. Mathematically, aj can be factored out of equation (3.6), and canceled
on both sides equations such that:
where E’[Lj | NC, DSi] and E’[Lj | NC, EDPi] are now normalized by the component’s
replacement value, aj.
m
E [ LSTORY | NC , EDPk ] b j E [ L j | NC , EDPj ] (3.8)
j
where E [ LSTORY | NC , EDPk ] is the expected loss of the entire story normalized by the
replacement value of the story, conditioned on the kth EDP. This is how the generic EDP-
DV functions will be expressed. With the loss expressed in these terms, the analysts no
longer needs to specify j replacement values for each component, but rather only needs to
stipulate the total value of the story to determine the loss of the component. The monetary
value of the expected loss for the entire story can then be found with the following
equation:
where E[ LSTORY | NC , EDPk ] is the economic loss of the story expressed in dollars and cl is
Building
Distribution (% of Story Distribution (% of story value)
Component Group
total bldg value)
Total1 1st Floor Typical Floor Top Floor
A. SUBSTRUCTURE
2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B. SHELL
B10 Superstructure 17.6% 17.9% 18.5% 15.4%
B20 Exterior Enclosure 16.3% 18.8% 16.2% 16.9%
B30 Roofing 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5%
C. INTERIORS
19.4% 20.7% 21.4% 11.1%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying 9.5% 9.1% 9.4% 11.8%
D20 Plumbing 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
D30 HVAC 13.0% 12.3% 12.7% 17.6%
D40 Fire Protection 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8%
D50 Electrical 16.8% 16.6% 17.2% 17.9%
100% 100% 100% 100%
Notes: 1) Cost distribution of total bldg value take from RS Means Square Foot Costs (2007)
Table 3.2 goes into greater detail of the story cost distribution for a typical story in
a 7-story office building by further dividing the cost of each component group into
individual components. The distribution of cost for each component group was primarily
based on engineering judgment. Also included in the table is information about each
component’s seismic sensitivity and assigned fragility group. Several of the components
were assumed to only be damaged if the entire structure collapsed. These components,
termed “rugged,” were assumed to not contribute to the loss due to non-collapse. The
fragilities assigned to the components that are deemed damageable are explained in greater
detail in Section 3.3.2. All the cost distributions for low-rise, mid-rise and high-rise
buildings used in this study can be found in Appendix A.
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes IDR Partitions 4.5%
Interior Doors IDR Partitions 1.9%
Fittings IDR Generic-Drift 0.6%
Stair Construction IDR Generic-Drift 1.9%
21.4%
Floor Finishes - 60% carpet IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.4%
30% vinyl composite tile Rugged 2.2%
10% ceramic tile Rugged 0.7%
Ceiling Finishes PFA Ceilings 5.1%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts IDR Generic-Drift 0.9%
9.4%
PFA Generic-Accl 8.5%
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures IDR DS3 Partition-like 0.9%
1.9%
Rugged 1.1%
D30 HVAC
Terminal & Package Units PFA Generic-Accl 9.5%
12.7%
IDR Generic-Drift 3.2%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment –
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers PFA Generic-Accl 2.0%
2.7%
Standpipes IDR Generic-Drift 0.7%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution PFA Generic-Accl 1.5%
Lighting & Branch Wiring Rugged 1.1%
Lighting & Branch Wiring PFA Generic-Accl 5.1%
Lighting & Branch Wiring IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.5% 17.2%
Communications & Security Rugged 1.0%
Communications & Security PFA Generic-Accl 1.5%
Communications & Security IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.5%
= 100% 100%
Creating EDP-DV functions requires consolidating fragility and mean repair costs
for all the components being considered. Table 3.3, Table 3.4 and Table 3.5 display the
parameters for the fragility and normalized mean repair costs used in this study for ductile
concrete structural components, non-ductile concrete structural components and
nonstructural components, respectively. The first column identifies the type of component
and the second column lists the different damage states associated with each component.
The third and fourth columns list the medians and lognormal standard deviations of the
fragility functions used, respectively. The fifth column lists the expected value of the
corresponding cost of repair/replacement actions. The sixth and final column cites the
reference that developed the functions.
Table 3.3 Fragility function & expected repair cost (normalized by component replacement cost)
parameters for ductile structural components
Fragility Function Parameters Repair Cost
Component Damage State Median (% for Expected Reference
Dispersion
IDR, g for PFA) Value
DS1 Method of Repair 1 0.70 0.45 0.14
Beam-column DS2 Method of Repair 2 1.70 0.50 0.47 Brown & Lowes
Subassembly DS3 Method of Repair 3 3.90 0.30 0.71 (2006)
DS4 Method of Repair 4 6.00 0.22 2.25
DS1 Light Cracking 0.40 0.39 0.10 Aslani & Miranda
Slab-column
DS2 Severe Cracking 1.00 0.25 0.40 (2005), & Roberson
Subassembly
DS3 Punching Shear Failure 9.00 0.24 2.75 et al. (2002)
Table 3.4 Fragility function & expected repair cost (normalized by component replacement cost)
parameters for non-ductile structural components
Fragility Function Parameters Repair Cost
Component Damage State Median (% for Expected Reference
Dispersion
IDR, g for PFA) Value
DS1 Light Cracking 0.35 0.33 0.10
DS2 Severe Cracking 1.00 0.44 0.50 Aslani & Miranda
Columns
DS3 Shear Failure 2.60 0.55 2.00 (2005)
DS4 Loss of Vertical Carrying Capacity 6.80 0.38 3.00
DS1 Method of Repair 1 0.65 0.35 0.14
DS2 Method of Repair 2 1.20 0.45 0.47
Beam-column Pagni & Lowes
DS3 Method of Repair 3 2.20 0.33 0.71
Subassembly (2006)
DS4 Method of Repair 4 3.00 0.30 1.41
DS5 Method of Repair 5 3.60 0.26 2.31
DS1 Light Cracking 0.40 0.39 0.10
Aslani & Miranda
Slab-column DS2 Severe Cracking 1.00 0.25 0.40
(2005), & Roberson
Subassembly DS3 Punching Shear Failure 4.40 0.24 1.00
et al. (2002)
DS4 Loss of Vertical Carrying Capacity 5.40 0.16 2.75
Most of the fragility functions were used directly from the reference cited in Table
3.5, without any additional modifications. However, several of the structural fragilities
required making assumptions to establish the functions’ parameters. The following section
will detail the assumptions and modifications to the made for this study.
Parameters for non-ductile concrete column fragility functions were taken directly
from Aslani and Miranda (2005). The value of IDR that column shear failure occurs, the
third damage state for this component, is dependent on the amount for axial (gravity) load it
is carrying. Consequently, the parameters of the fragility function for the third damage state
are also a function of the level of axial load creating a fragility surface. To determine the
parameters for this fragility, a relatively low level of axial load was assumed
( P Ag f c 50 , where P is the axial load, Ag is the gross cross-sectional area of the
column, fc is the compressive strength of the concrete and ’’ is the reinforcement ratio), for
low to mid-rise buildings and intermediate level of axial load ( P Ag f c 150 ) for high-
rise buildings.
Pagni and Lowes’ (2006) developed fragility functions for modern reinforced
concrete beam-column subassemblies. These functions were used in this study with minor
modifications made to some of their parameters. The dispersion of damage state 1 was
decreased from 0.47 to 0.35 to increase the range of IDR where these components behave
elastically and no damage occurs (i.e. increase the “quiet zone” as described in section
3.3.2.1. The other parameters for this function were adjusted to achieve a better fit with the
empirical data reported in the Pagni and Lowes (2006) paper.
Functions for non-ductile concrete slab-column subassemblies were taken directly
from the study conducted by Aslani and Miranda (2005). The level of deformation at which
Fragility functions derived by Aslani and Miranda (2005) for partitions and windows
and partition-like components were used in this study. Aslani and Miranda (2005)
introduced the concept of “partition-like” components – other components whose loss is
dependent on the damage state of the partition. Many of these components, such as
electrical wiring, plumbing…etc., are often contained within the partitions. If a partition is
damaged to an extent that it needs to be replaced, these other components have to be
replaced as well, regardless if they have been damaged independently. Consequently, these
components were assigned the same fragility as the function for the partition replacement,
the partitions’ third damage state, and were termed “DS3 partition-like components.” This
physical and spatial interaction between partitions and the components contained within the
partitions results in their losses being dependent. There are other building components that
exhibit this type of loss dependency and this phenomenon is discussed and investigated in
further detail in section 3.5. No modifications were made to the parameters of functions for
partitions, DS3 partition-like components, and window and were used as documented by
Aslani and Miranda (2005). For all other components, generic fragility functions derived
from empirical data, as described in Chapter 5 of this dissertation, were used to estimate
damage and loss.
Ceiling fragility functions taken from preliminary data and documents from the ATC-
58 project (ATC, 2007) were used in this study with only one modification made to its first
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
IDR
0.60 0.60
0.40 0.40
0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00
IDR PFA [g]
Figure 3.2 Story EDP-DV functions for typical floors in mid-rise office buildings with ductile
reinforced concrete moment resisting perimeter frames.
Comparing plots in Figure 3.2(a) between the different floor types shows that losses
for drift-sensitive structural components are slightly higher for the 1st and typical floors than
the top floor. A similar trend is observed in Figure 3.2(b) for drift sensitive nonstructural
components. Conversely, acceleration-sensitive nonstructural components show the
opposite trend (Figure 3.2(c)), where the larger losses are observed in the top floor. These
trends can be explained by how the cost is distributed along the height of the building.
Drift-sensitive items, such as partitions and structural members, make more of the relative
story value in the lower stories, especially in the 1st floor where more expensive
components (ex. finishes) may be located. On the other hand, acceleration-sensitive
components may make up more of the story value at the top floor because mechanical items
(such as HVAC units) are typically located on the roof of these types of buildings.
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00 0.05 IDR 0.10 0.15
0.60 0.60
0.40 0.40
0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00
IDR PFA [g]
Figure 3.3 EDP-DV Functions for low-rise, mid-rise and high rise ductile reinforced concrete
moment frame office buildings
E(L | IDR)
Structural components
1.00
Ductile
Non-ductile
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
IDR
Figure 3.4 Comparison between ductile and non-ductile structural component EDP-DV functions
of typical floors
Different EDP-DV functions for perimeter frames and for space frames were
formulated to account for the different type of construction implemented for these systems.
The functions for perimeter frame buildings accounted for beam-column subassemblies and
slab-column subassemblies, whereas the functions for space frame buildings only
considered beam-column subassemblies. It was assumed that the value of the slab-columns
represented in the perimeter frame buildings would be replaced by an equivalent value of
beam-column components in the space frame buildings to keep the total percentage of story
value due to structural components consistent with the cost distributions taken from the RS
Means data (this is primarily because the data from RS Means did not make a distinction
between perimeter and space frame buildings). The value of beam-column subassemblies
was increased by the value of slab-column connections that was removed. Figure 3.5 plots
E(L | IDR)
Structural components
1.00
Perimeter
Space
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
IDR
Figure 3.5 Comparison of structural EDP-DV functions between perimeter and space frame type
structures
E(L | IDR)
Structural components
1.00
Low gravity load
High gravity load
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
IDR
Figure 3.6 Influence of varying assumed gravity load on slab-column subassemblies on structural
EDP-DV functions
Sprinklers - DM2:
0.40 Replacement
0.20
(a)
0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
PFA
Sprinklers - DM2:
0.40 Replacement
0.20
(b)
0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
PFA
Figure 3.7 Hypothetical fragility functions of spatially interacting components (sprinklers &
suspended lighting) (a) example where losses are unaffected (b) example when losses are
conditional
Therefore, there are two possible errors in estimating loss that may arise if this
dependency is not accounted for properly: (1) underestimating the loss by ignoring this
dependency; or (2) overestimating the loss by counting the repair cost of a component twice
(double-counting). A proposed method that addresses these errors and accounts for these
losses correctly is presented here using a more detailed example of the dependent
relationship between steel beams and partitions. The failures of pre-Northridge steel-
column joints fracturing have been well-documented (FEMA-355E, 2000). Although these
types of structures avoided catastrophic collapse during this event, many stakeholders ended
up paying large sums of money to repair the steel structural members, which fractured at
smaller interstory drifts than expected. It has been demonstrated that steel beams,
particularly ones with large depths, are susceptible to fracture at very small amounts of
E[Lbms | IDR]
= 0.01
TOTAL
DM =1, Fracture
E[LTOTAL | IDR] = 0.034 E[L | DM = 1] = 2.0
P(DM = 1 | IDR) = 26%
PARTITIONS DM = 0, No Damage
E[L | DM = 0] = 0.0
aparts = 3.3% P(DM = 0 | IDR) = 5%
DM = 1, Small cracking
E[L | DM = 1] = 0.1
E[Lparts | IDR] P(DM = 1 | IDR) = 13%
=0.024 DM = 2, Extensive cracking
E[L | DM = 2] = 0.6
P(DM = 2 | IDR) = 47%
DM = 3, Replacement req’d
E[L | DM = 3] = 1.2
P(DM = 3 | IDR) = 35%
Another approach to account for this loss, is to include the cost of replacing the
partitions, as part of the repair cost of the steel beams. An example of this approach is
documented by Beck et al. (2002), where they list the replacement cost of partitions and
other nonstructural components as part of total estimate of the repair cost function. This
creates the second issue mentioned above of double-counting, where the partitions are being
assessed a loss twice. It is being counted in the repair cost function of the beam, as well as
a separate component that experiences damage. This approach is illustrated through
probability trees shown in Figure 3.9. This figure is the same as Figure 3.8, with the
exception that the expected loss of repairing the steel beams is increased from 2.0 to 5.0
(these losses are normalized by the value of a new component) to account for the cost of
replacing nonstructural components demolished to access the structural member. If the
same numerical example for IDR = 0.01 is carried out, the total loss from both components
results in 0.05 of the total value of the story, this is a 47% increase over the approach that
treats the components independently. Although this approach accounts for the partitions’
dependency on the steel beams, a significant portion of this increase in loss may be
attributed to the fact that the repair cost of the partitions are counted twice.
E[Lbms | IDR]
= 0.026
TOTAL
DM =1, Fracture
E[LTOTAL | IDR] = 0.05 E[L | DM = 1] = 5.0
P(DM = 1 | IDR) = 26%
PARTITIONS DM = 0, No Damage
E[L | DM = 0] = 0.0
aparts = 3.3% P(DM = 0 | IDR) = 5%
DM = 1, Small cracking
E[L | DM = 1] = 0.1
E[Lparts | IDR] P(DM = 1 | IDR) = 13%
=0.024 DM = 2, Extensive cracking
E[L | DM = 2] = 0.6
P(DM = 2 | IDR) = 47%
DM = 3, Replacement req’d
E[L | DM = 3] = 1.2
P(DM = 3 | IDR) = 35%
Figure 3.9 Probability tree for independent components that use double-counting to account for
dependency
Thus far we have demonstrated that the first approach ignores the loss produced by
repair actions that affect more than one component, therefore, may be underestimating the
combined loss of both components. Although the second method accounts for this
dependency, it may be overestimating the loss because it double counts the repair of the
dependent component. The actual loss will be somewhere in between the two methods.
Therefore an approach that captures this dependency without double-counting is required.
The proposed approach computes the loss such that the estimation of the dependent
components’ damage is conditional on the damage state of the other component. Figure
3.10 shows the probability tree that illustrates this method. The partitions’ damage is now
conditional on what damage state the steel beams are in, as represented by the branches of
the partitions being stacked behind those of the beams. If the steel beam does not
experience damage, the partitions’ damage is estimated by using the same fragility
functions as before. If the beam has been damaged, then only two possible damage states
are considered: no damage and replacement required. Note that the replacement damage
state is assigned a conditional probability of 100% to ensure that the partition will be
replaced if we know that the beam has fractured.
DM = 0, No Damage
E[L | DM = 0] = 0.0
P(DM = 0 | IDR) = 5%
DM = 1, Small cracking
E[L | DM = 1] = 0.1
DM = 0, No Damage P(DM = 1 | IDR) = 13%
DM = 3, Replacement req’d
E[L | DM = 3] = 1.2
P(DM = 3 | IDR) = 35%
E[LTOTAL | IDR]
= 0.038 DM = 0, No Damage
E[L | DM = 0] = 0.0
P(DM = 0 | IDR) = 0%
DM =1, Fracture
P(DM = 1 | IDR) = 26%
DM = 3, Replacement req’d
Figure 3.10 Probability tree for proposed approach to account for dependent components.
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0.000 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.016 0.020
IDR
Figure 3.11 EDP-DV functions for three different approaches of handling component dependency
For this particular example, using conditional fragility functions did not have a
significant difference in loss than if the components were treated independently. This can
be explained examining the fragility functions of both components as shown in Figure 3.12.
How much loss increases due to component dependence, depends on how much the fragility
of the steel beam overlaps with the first two damage states of the partitions. If the steel
beams’ fragility overlaps with these damage states, it means that there is a probability that
the beams may fracture, initiating replacement, before small or extensive cracking is
experienced in the partitions. The greater the overlap, the higher this probability is and the
greater expected loss is. Although, these particular components have small levels of
overlap, other dependent components may have greater overlap, and have a more significant
difference in expected losses than if the components were considered independent.
0.8
0.6
0.4
Beam - DM1
Partition - DM1
0.2
Partition - DM2
Partition - DM3
0.0
0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030
IDR
Figure 3.12 Fragility functions for Pre-Northridge steel beams and partitions
The effect of component dependency will also be more significant if there are more
than one component whose loss is conditioned on the damage of other components. Aslani
and Miranda (2005) introduced the concept of “partition-like” components – other
components that needed to be replaced when a partition was replaced (ex. electrical wiring,
plumbing…etc.). They were assigned the same fragility as the one for the partitions’ third
damage state for replacement, and therefore termed “DS3 partition-like components.” If the
value of these DS3 partition-like components is incorporated into the previous example, and
the calculations for expected loss at an IDR of 0.01 are repeated, the resulting loss is equal
to 0.114. This is 33% greater than if the components were treated independently (which has
an expected loss of 0.085 when DS 3 partition-like components are included). Figure 3.14
plots the corresponding EDP-DV functions to illustrate the effect of including more
dependent components. Note that the losses become larger at smaller values of IDR
DM = 0, No Damage
E[L | DM = 0] = 0.0
P(DM = 0 | IDR) = 5%
DM = 1, Small cracking
E[L | DM = 1] = 0.1
DM = 0, No Damage P(DM = 1 | IDR) = 13%
DM = 3, Replacement req’d
E[L | DM = 3] = 1.2
P(DM = 3 | IDR) = 35%
E[LTOTAL | IDR]
= 0.114 DM = 0, No Damage
E[L | DM = 0] = 0.0
P(DM = 0 | IDR) = 0%
DM =1, Fracture
P(DM = 1 | IDR) = 26%
DM = 3, Replacement req’d
Figure 3.13 Probability tree for proposed approach, including other DS3 Partition-like components
E[L | IDR]
25.0%
Independent
Dependent, w/o Double-counting
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0.000 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.016 0.020
IDR []
Figure 3.14 EDP-DV functions for proposed approach vs treating components independently, with
DS3 Partition-like components included.
3.7 CONCLUSIONS
A simplified approach to implementing the PEER loss estimation methodology,
referred to here as story-based loss estimation, has been presented. The new approach
collapses out the intermediate step of estimating damage to create generic relationships at
the story-level between structural response parameters and loss (EDP-DV functions). These
relationships can be established without knowing the building’s exact inventory ahead of
time by using an assumed cost distribution based on knowing the building’s structural
system and occupancy, and normalizing all repair costs by the entire value of the story.
Functions for reinforced concrete moment resisting frames were developed and documented
in this study to for use in loss assessments for these types of structures. The functions
aggregate building components into 3 primary groups: drift-sensitive structural components,
drift-sensitive nonstructural components, and acceleration-sensitive nonstructural
components
Assessment of the story EDP-DV functions yielded several significant findings.
Comparing the functions of the 3 different component groups shows that losses due to drift-
sensitive, non-structural components will comprise the majority of the repair costs in a story
4.2 INTRODUCTION
Prior to the 1994 Northridge earthquake, steel moment resisting frame buildings
were widely regarded as one of the best structural systems to resist lateral loads generated
by seismic events. In particular, moment resisting beam-to-column connections in welded
steel moment frames (WSMF) were considered to be able to withstand large inelastic
deformations without developing significant strength degradation or instabilities. Should
damage occur in these frames, it would be limited to ductile yielding of beams and beam-
column connections (FEMA, 2000a). The moment connection detail most commonly used
Complete joint
penetration
Top & Bottom Flange
W Steel Beam
Fillet Weld
Each side
Shear tab
w/ bolts
While investigating the effects of supplement welds placed between the beam web
and the shear tab, Engelhardt and Husain (1993) observed that welded flange-bolted web
steel moment connections could experience fractures at relatively low levels of
deformation. Of the eight specimens they tested, only one was able to reach a plastic
rotation of 0.015. Analysis of their results, together with a re-examination of the plastic
rotation capacity attained in five previous experimental investigations, led them to conclude
that this type of connection had highly variable performance with a significant number of
specimens having poor or marginal performance when subjected to cyclic loading. They
expressed concern that the performance of this widely used connection was not as reliable
as once thought. Soon after the publication of their study, the January 17th, 1994
Northridge, California confirmed their concerns.
Consolidated damage reports from the Northridge earthquake and found that of 155
steel moment resisting frame buildings inspected, 90 of them experienced some connection
damage (FEMA-355E, 2000). Close inspection of buildings following the earthquake
DS2 Fracture: Fracture is a failure mode occurring when molecular bonds in the metal
matrix begin to physically separate, resulting in a sudden loss in the joint’s strength.
Fracture often occurs in the complete joint penetration welds that connected the beam
flanges to the column face; however, fracture was also observed in the beam flanges and the
column flanges. It is particularly important to be able to predict this damage state because
it leads to expensive repairs and downtime. Further, if it occurs in sufficient number of
connections, it may lead to a local or global collapse of the structure. As with the damage
state for yielding, the first reported occurrence of fracture anywhere on the specimen by the
experimental study was used to define the IDR this damage state initiates.
Location of
h/2 Applied Load
h/2 W Steel Beam
W Steel
Column
(a)
LcL
Location of
Applied Load
W Steel
Column W Steel
Beam
(b)
Figure 4.2 Typical Test Setups (a) Single Sided (b) Double Sided
With the exception of the tests conducted by Popov et al. (1985), all of the
specimens were set up in a single-sided configuration and loaded by displacing the free-end
of the beam as shown in Figure 4.2a. This displacement of the beam’s free end, can be
used to calculate the joint rotation, and thus the equivalent interstory drift, by dividing it by
the length between the beam end and the column centerline, LcL. Popov et al.’s (1985)
investigation used a two-sided configuration, as shown in Figure 4.2b, and loaded these
specimens by displacing the free ends of the upper and lower columns. Interstory drift was
calculated by taking this displacement, and dividing it by the half the total height of the
(i 0.5)
P (4.1)
n
where i is the position of the peak interstory drift ratio within the sorted data and n is the
number of specimens. This equation is also known as Hazen’s Model, and is one of several
commonly-used equations used to compute quantiles. This particular definition was
selected because previous research has shown this definition limits the amount of bias
introduced into the plotting position (Cunnane 1978). It also prevents the first data point in
a sample to be assigned a probability of 0 (i.e. the damage state will never occur at this
drift), and the last data point with a probability of 1 (i.e. the damage state is guaranteed to
occur at this drift), which is unrealistic. However, the differences between the different
definitions of the quantile are subtle and for large sample sizes, all of them converge to the
same value.
After the data is plotted, a lognormal cumulative distribution function was fitted to
the data points, by using its logarithmic statistical parameters to define the function. It has
been well-established that the lognormal distribution provides relatively good fit to
empirical cumulative distributions computed from experimental data (Aslani 2005; Aslani
and Miranda 2005; Pagni and Lowes 2006; Brown and Lowes 2007). The equation of this
fitted function is given by:
i, Ln IDR is the natural logarithm of the counted median of the interstory drift ratios
(IDRs) at which damage state i was observed, LnIDR is the standard deviation of the natural
logarithm of the IDRs, and is the cumulative standard normal distribution. Alternatively,
Ln IDR can be replaced by the geometric mean, which is the mean of the natural
1
plower (4.3)
2n
1
pupper 1 (4.4)
2n
If a data point’s cumulative probability was smaller than the probability calculated with
Equation (4.3), or was greater than the probability calculated with Equation (4.4), then it
was excluded from the data set.
Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests (Benjamin and Cornell 1970) were
conducted to verify that the cumulative distribution function could be assumed to be
lognormally distributed. This was done by plotting graphical representations of this test for
10% significance levels on the same graph as the data and its fitted cumulative distribution
function. If all the data points lie within the bounded significance levels, the assumed
cumulative distribution function fits the empirical data adequately.
In addition to the specimen to specimen variability, statistical uncertainty was
considered to account for inherent uncertainty in the proposed fragility functions because
their parameters have been established using data with a limited amount of specimens
(finite-sample uncertainty). This uncertainty is quantified by bounding our fitted lognormal
cumulative distribution function with confidence intervals of the median and dispersion
IDR exp z / 2 LnIDR (4.5)
n
where z/2 is the value in the standard normal distribution such that the probability of a
random deviation numerically greater than z/2 is , and n is the number of data points.
90% confidence intervals can were obtained and plotted for each fragility function.
The experimental data used included specimens that were fabricated from both A36
and A572 grade 50 steel (Fy = 36 ksi and 50 ksi, respectively). The data was divided into
these two categories because the A36 specimens are expected to yield at lower drifts. It was
found that the difference in IDRs in the two groups was statistically significant. Therefore,
two separate fragility functions were created based on the yielding stress of the specimen.
When the test specimen consisted of members fabricated from differing types of steel (e.g.
the beam made from A36 and the column made from A572 grade 50), the specimen was
categorized based on the member where yielding first occurred. Figure 4.3a displays the
fragility function for test specimens whose yielded members were fabricated from A36
steel, while Figure 4.3b displays the fragility function for A572 grade 50 steel. Statistical
parameters for both functions are listed in Table 4.3.
Table 4.3 Uncorrected statistical parameters for IDRs corresponding to the damage states for Pre-
Northridge beam-column joints
0.6
0.4
0.2 Data
Fitted Curve
K-S Test, 10% Signif.
0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Interstory Drift, IDR [%]
0.6
0.4
Data
0.2
Fitted Curve
K-S Test, 10% Signif.
0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Interstory Drift, IDR [%]
0.0
-0.4
-0.8 Data
Fitted Data
95% Confid. on Mean
Theoretical
-1.2
6 8 10 12
Span-to-Depth Ratio, SDR
ln(IDR) [% ]
0.4
(b)
0.0
-0.4
-0.8 Data
Fitted Line
95% Confid. on Mean
Theoretical
-1.2
4 6 8 10 12
Span-to-Depth Ratio, SDR
Shortly after the 1994 Northridge earthquake, Youssef et al. (1995) conducted a
survey of steel moment-resisting frame buildings that were affected by the earthquake.
According of their report, the buildings surveyed had a mean L/db of 10. Assuming that this
can serve as a fairly accurate representation of typical span-to-depth ratio’s used in practice,
we can conclude that the functions displayed in Figure 4.3, if used directly to estimate
damage in existing steel moment-resisting frame buildings built prior to 1994, may result in
Table 4.4 Summary of Yousef et al.’s Building Survey Results for Typical Girder Sizes of Existing
Buildings
Typical No of Floor- Min Bay Avg Bay Max Bay Beam Depth [cm] Span-to-depth ratio
Weight
Girder Bldgs Frames [m] [m] [m] db Weighted Avg. L/d b Weighted Avg.
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
W14/16 6 48 4.6 5.8 8.5 0.04 38 1.5 15.2 0.6
W18 9 46 3.7 6.1 12.2 0.04 46 1.7 13.3 0.5
W21 12 112 3.4 5.5 12.2 0.09 53 4.9 10.3 1.0
W24 23 135 4 7 10.4 0.11 61 6.8 11.5 1.3
W27 19 56 4.9 7.9 12.2 0.05 69 3.2 11.5 0.5
W30 20 106 4 7.6 12.8 0.09 76 6.7 10.0 0.9
W33 20 174 4.9 8.5 12.8 0.14 84 12.1 10.1 1.5
W36 30 533 4.6 7.9 14 0.44 91 40.3 8.6 3.8
1210 77.2 10.0
Notes:
- Column (10) is the calculated average span-to-depth ratio calculated by dividing (5) by (8) accounting for unit conversion
- A weighted average was used based on the number of floor frames included in Yousef et al.'s study. The weight (7) is found by taking the value of (3) and dividing it
by the sum of column (3). For example, the weighted average for span-to-depth ratio is obtained by multiplying (7) by (10) to get (11), and then summing up column
(11).
There are different alternatives approaches that one may use to modify the fragility
functions shown in Figure 4.3. A first approach is to compute the median IDR as a function
of the L/db ratio as follows:
where IDRy is the geometric mean IDR at yielding, and a and b are dimensionless
coefficients the y-intercept and the slope of the linear regression relationship respectively.
Table 4.5 documents the values of the regression coefficients, a and b, for the data
considered in this study for both A36 and A572 grade 50 specimens. In cases in which the
L/db ratio is not known, one could use an L/db of 10 (based on Yousef et al.’s survey), in
equation (4.6) and then the median IDRy become 0.77and 0.76 for A36 and A572 gr 50
specimens, respectively (see also Table 4.6). In cases where L/db is known, small
reductions in dispersion are achieved to 0.24 for A36 specimens and to 0.18 for A572 grade
50 specimens (Table 4.6).
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Original Function
0.2 Corrected Function
90% Confid. Intervals
0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Interstory Drift, IDR [%]
Figure 4.5 Recommended Fragility Function corrected for Span-to-Depth Ratio with 90%
confidence bands
Table 4.5 Regression coefficients for relationship between IDRy and L/db
Regression A36 A572
Parameters Specimens Specimens
Y-intercept, a -1.83 -0.56
Slope, b 0.16 0.028
where,
L
3
cL d2c P
IDRb (4.8)
3EI b LcL
h db
3
PLcL
IDRc (4.9)
12 EI c h2
IDRPZ
h db PL 1 1
(4.10)
h As G db h
where P is the load imposed on the specimen, dc is the depth of the column, h is the height
of the column, Ic is the column’s moment of inertia, db is the depth of the beam, Ib is the
beam’s moment of inertia, L is the distance from the beam-end to the face of the column, E
is Young’s modulus and G is the corresponding shear modulus. Equations (4.7) to (4.10)
are only true under the following simplifying assumptions (Krawinkler et al. 2000): (i)
inflection points are assumed to occur at mid-height and at mid-span in columns and beams,
respectively; (ii) the is no vertical deflection in the point of inflection in the beam; (iii)
2 d L
IDRb 1 c y cL (4.11)
3 2 LcL db
2
1 d F
IDRb 1 c y L db (4.12)
3 2 LcL E
h db
3
I b Fy
IDRc L db (4.13)
12h 2 LcL d2c Ic E
h db
2
I b Fy
IDRPZ 2.6 L db (4.14)
h 2 db LcL d2c tc d c E
where Fy is the material yield stress and tc is the column’s web thickness. By using
equations (4.12)-(4.14) in equation (4.7) it is then possible to compute IDR at yield as a
function of L/db Table 4.7 displays mean values taken from our test specimens for the
parameters that are used in the derived analytical equations above. Figure 4.4a and b show
the analytical expression computed with these equation using the mean values indicated in
Table 4.7. It can be seen that, in both cases, the analytical expression falls within the 95%
confidence intervals suggesting that the linear regression of our data set follows the
analytical prediction.
Table 4.7 Average values for parameters in Equation (9), relating L/db and IDR
In cases in which there is enough information (e.g., section geometry and nominal
material properties) to analytically compute the interstory drift at which yielding will be
initiated, then experimental information shown in Table 4.2 can be used to obtain a fragility
function specifically for each connection by considering a random variable , defined as the
ratio of the IDR in which yielding was observed in the test to the analytical yielding IDR as
follows:
IDRObserved
(4.15)
IDRy
Figure 4.6 shows the cumulative distribution functions of for both the A36
specimens and the A572 grade 50 specimens. Figure 6 also shows fitted lognormal
distributions computed with parameters listed in Table 4.6 and 10% significance curves
corresponding to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, suggesting that the random variable can
also be assumed to be lognormally distributed.
0.6
0.4
Data
Fitted Curve
0.2
K-S Test, 10%
Significance
0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Correction Factor,
P(DS | )
for A572
1.0
(b)
0.8
0.6
0.4
Data
Fitted Curve
0.2
K-S Test, 10%
Significance
0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Correction Factor,
Figure 4.6 Fragility Functions for to be used in conjunction with an analytical prediction of IDRy
(a) A36 (b) A572 grade 50
For a given beam-to-column connection one would first compute analytically the
IDR corresponding to the onset of yielding and the median of the fragility function is then
computed as the product of IDRy and the median of Meanwhile the dispersion in the
fragility is set equal to the dispersion of shown in Table 4.6. It should be noted that using
this procedure a further reduction in dispersion was obtained for A36 specimens, however
for A572 grade 50 specimens the dispersion increased due to the fact that in several
P(DS|IDR) A572
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Fitted Function
90% Confid. Intervals
0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
IDR [%]
Figure 4.7 Example Fragility Function for W36 beam generated by using (A572 grade 50)
0.8
0.6
0.4
Data
Fitted Curve
0.2
K-S Test, 10%
Significance
0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Interstory Drift, IDR [%]
Roeder and Foutch (1996) showed that beams of pre-Northridge joints with larger
depths have significantly smaller flexural ductility than shallower beams. Furthermore,
their work was the basis for creating relationships between beam depth plastic rotation
capacity as described in FEMA-355D (FEMA, 2000b). This study also investigated the
effect of beam depth on the drift at which fracture is likely to occur in this type of
connections by using the data in Table 4.2. Figure 4.9 shows the plot of the natural
logarithm of IDR as a function of beam depth. Consistent with Roeder and Foutch
observations, it can be seen that the IDR at which fracture occurs decreases as beam depth
increases. Using linear regression on this sample, the median IDR at which fracture occurs
can be estimated as a function of the beam depth by using the following equation:
where db is the depth of the beam (in cm). Equation (4.16) is also plotted in Figure 4.9
along with 95% confidence intervals on the mean. It should noted that this equation is not
directly comparable to the equations developed by Roeder and Foutch in FEMA-355D
(2000) because those equations were based on beam ductility and beam plastic rotation
capacity, rather than on the IDR of the connection. The fragility function corresponding to
fracture can then constructed by first estimating the median parameter using equation (4.16)
and using a somewhat smaller logarithmic standard deviation of 0.44. Figure 4.10
illustrates an example of a fragility created with this procedure, using the calculated
weighted average of beam depth from Yousef et al.’s survey (1995, see Table 4.4), and
enveloped by 90% confidence intervals associated with the statistical uncertainty produced
by computing the parameters of the fragility function using a small sample size (i.e., a small
number of experimental tests). Figure 4.11 also implements this procedure using the beam
depth of a specific steel shape (W36x150, the same shape used above in the yielding
fragility example) as an example for users that have this information.
ln(IDR) [% ]
2.0
1.0
0.0
Data
Fitted Data
95% Confid. Intervals
-1.0
0 30 60 90 120
Beam Depth, db [cm]
Figure 4.9 Relationship between IDR at fracture and beam depth for all specimens.
0.8
0.6
0.4
Corrected Function
0.2 90% Confid. Intervals
Original Function
0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Interstory Drift, IDR [%]
Figure 4.10 Recommended fragility function corrected for beam depth with 90% confidence bands
0.8
0.6
0.4
Corrected Function
0.2
90% Confid. Intervals
0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Interstory Drift, IDR [%]
Figure 4.11 Example corrected fragility for W36 when beam depth is known.
4.6 CONCLUSIONS
Fragility functions for pre-Northridge steel beam-column joint connections have been
developed in this study based on experimental results of 51 specimens. Fragility functions
for two damage states, yielding and fracture, were generated to establish relationships
between building response parameters, namely interstory drift ratio, and the level of damage
experienced in the beam-column connection. The fragility functions presented in this study
5.2 INTRODUCTION
Quantifying structural performance in terms of economic loss induced by seismic
ground motions requires estimating damage as a function of structural response. Fragility
functions compute the probability of being in to or exceeding a given damage state or
performance level as a function of a structural response parameter. Fragility functions need
to be assigned to all components in a building’s inventory to estimate the damage and
associated monetary loss that is representative of the entire value of the building. However,
functions for every type of building component are currently not available. Most studies
(see Chapter 2) on seismic-induced economic losses have ignored the loss due to
components without fragilities or accounted for their loss only when the structure collapsed
Lateral Dist. To
No. of Interstory EQ Damping
Station ID Resisting Occupancy Type Epicenter Period [s] Alpha
Stories Ht. [cm] Direction Ratio
System [km]
24231 7 Steel MRF School 18 411 EW 1.10 4.1 0.054
24231 7 Steel MRF School 18 411 NS 0.62 7.0 0.100
24236 14 Rconcrete MRF Warehouse 23 320 EW 0.81 8.5 0.088
24236 14 Rconcrete MRF Warehouse 23 320 NS 2.30 5.0 0.075
24322 13 Rconcrete MRF Commercial 9 358 EW 2.92 29.5 0.050
24322 13 Rconcrete MRF Commercial 9 358 NS 2.60 19.1 0.090
24332 3 Shear Walls Commercial 20 508 EW 0.48 6.0 0.035
24332 3 Shear Walls Commercial 20 508 NS 0.59 30.0 0.050
24370 6 SMRF Commercial 22 396 EW 1.39 30.0 0.040
24370 6 SMRF Commercial 22 396 NS 1.38 30.0 0.029
24385 10 Shear Walls Residential 21 207 EW 0.59 2.0 0.055
24385 10 Shear Walls Residential 21 207 NS 0.60 2.0 0.059
24386 7 Rconcrete MRF Hotel 7 265 EW 1.98 8.9 0.130
24386 7 Rconcrete MRF Hotel 7 265 NS 1.60 5.0 0.130
24463 5 Rconcrete MRF Warehouse 36 725 EW 1.45 10.2 0.037
24463 5 Rconcrete MRF Warehouse 36 725 NS 1.62 15.5 0.035
24464 20 Rconcrete MRF Hotel 19 257 EW 2.60 9.1 0.050
24464 20 Rconcrete MRF Hotel 19 257 NS 2.79 29.0 0.030
24514 6 Shear Walls Hospital 16 472 EW 0.30 3.5 0.180
24514 6 Shear Walls Hospital 16 472 NS 0.37 3.0 0.180
24579 9 Rconcrete MRF Office Building 32 396 EW 1.29 4.1 0.053
24579 9 Rconcrete MRF Office Building 32 396 NS 1.04 29.5 0.050
24580 2 Base Isolation Office Building 38 NA NA NA NA NA
24580 2 Base Isolation Office Building 38 NA NA NA NA NA
24601 17 Shear Walls Residential 32 264 EW 1.08 1.8 0.033
24601 17 Shear Walls Residential 32 264 NS 1.14 1.5 0.036
24602 52 Steel MRF Office Building 31 396 EW 6.20 6.9 0.015
24602 52 Steel MRF Office Building 31 396 NS 5.90 9.8 0.010
24605 7 Base Isolation Hospital 36 NA NA NA NA NA
24605 7 Base Isolation Hospital 36 NA NA NA NA NA
24629 54 Steel MRF Office Building 32 396 EW 5.60 30.0 0.005
24629 54 Steel MRF Office Building 32 396 NS 6.20 27.5 0.009
24643 19 Steel MRF Office Building 20 406 EW 3.90 30.0 0.021
24643 19 Steel MRF Office Building 20 406 NS 3.47 4.0 0.026
24652 6 Steel MRF Office Building 31 427 EW 0.91 30.0 0.049
24652 6 Steel MRF Office Building 31 427 NS 0.86 13.0 0.032
24655 6 Steel MRF Parking Structure 31 305 EW 0.40 1.4 0.067
24655 6 Steel MRF Parking Structure 31 305 NS 0.51 2.0 0.102
The damage collected for each building used the criteria established by ATC-13
(ATC, 1985). Overall damage for the entire building was reported using the following
damage states: none, insignificant, moderate and heavy. These damage states are defined in
Table 5.2. In addition to the reporting the building’s overall damage, damage to specific
Code Description
N None . No damage is visible, either structural or non-structural
Insignificant. Damage requires no more than cosmetic repair. No structural
repairs are necessary. For non-structural elements this would include
I spackling partition cracks, picking up spilled contents, putting back fallen ceiling
tiles, and righting equipement.
Moderate. Repairable structural damage has occurred. The existing elements
can be repaired in place, without substantial demolition or replacement or
M elements. For non-structural elements this would include minor replacement of
damaged partitions, ceilings, contents or equipment.
Heavy. Damage is so extensive that repair of elements is either not feasible or
requires major demolition or replacement. For non-structural elements this
H would include major or complete replacement of damaged partitions, ceilings,
contents or equipment.
The response parameters being considered in this study to create fragility functions
are listed and defined as the following:
Peak Building Acceleration (PBA): The maximum acceleration
experienced by the building at any floor during the earthquake.
Peak Interstory Drift (IDR): The maximum interstory drift experienced
by the building at any story during the earthquake
These response parameters are also often referred to as engineering demand
parameters (EDPs) under the terminology established by PEER for their performance-based
earthquake engineering framework (Krawinkler and Miranda, 2004). Calculating these
parameters requires knowing what the maximum displacements and accelerations are for
every floor of each building. The sensors for each CSMIP building were not located at
every floor. Therefore, approximate methods of structural analysis were used to evaluate the
building’s response at the intermediate floors that did not have any motion recordings.
Taghavi and Miranda (2005) have shown that in many cases it is possible to obtain
a relatively good approximation of the response of buildings subjected to earthquake ground
motions. In their model, the building is replaced by a continuous system consisting of a
shear beam laterally connected to a flexural beam by axially ridge struts (Figure 5.1). The
continuous system’s primary advantage is that it requires only three parameters to calculate
Flexural beam
Shear beam
Axially-rigid links
The distribution of the building mass and stiffness was assumed to be uniform along
the height of the structure. Although making this assumption may seem restrictive, Miranda
and Taghavi (2005) have shown that, provided that there are no large sudden changes in
mass or stiffness along the height, this model leads to reasonable approximations of the
dynamic characteristics of many types of buildings. Any deviation in response that was
produced by nonuniform mass or stiffness, was small enough to neglect or could be
accounted for by using approximate equations.
The continuous model has been shown to have produced similar structural
responses for structures responding elastically that were predicted by more rigorous models
that required greater computational effort. Furthermore, by using the building’s
Summary sheets were assembled to consolidate all the structural response and
damage information gathered for each of the 19 instrumented CSMIP buildings included in
this study. Figure 5.4 illustrates an example of the type of data generated for each building.
The example building shown is a 17 story shear wall residential building. General building
characteristics (e.g. number of stories, type of lateral resisting system, occupancy
type…etc) and a summary of the reported damage are documented. A map showing the
locations of the sensors in each building and plots of peak response parameters, similar to
those shown in Figure 5.2, are also reported in the summary sheets.
Unlike the CSMIP buildings in the previous section, the actual structural response
was not recorded in buildings surveyed by ATC-38 and therefore is not known. The ground
motion accelerations for each specific building is also not known. However, because the
buildings in the ATC-38 report are located in close proximity to ground motion recording
stations, the ground motion accelerations for these structures are assumed to be the same as
those recorded at the nearby stations. By making this assumption, the ground motion
recordings were used to estimate the probable structural response during the 1994
Northridge earthquake by using simplified structural analyses of all 500 buildings.
Most of the buildings surveyed in ATC-38 were 5 stories or less. For low-rise
buildings the continuous model, used to model the CSMIP building, does not do as well in
simulating response parameters. This is because the distribution of mass along the height of
a building is much more discrete in low-rise buildings, than it is in taller structures. Instead
of using the continuous model described in Section 5.4.1, a more traditional discrete, linear
model was used to simulate the structural response. The discrete model consisted of a two
dimensional linear one-bay frame with lumped mass at the floor heights. Assuming a
linearly elastic model to estimate the response parameters of these buildings in this study
was deemed reasonable because the ground motion intensities observed during this
earthquake were, for the most part, not large enough to induce inelastic behavior in the
majority of these structures. The model was assumed to have uniform mass and uniform
stiffness throughout the height of the structure. Like the continuous model, this approach
uses the same three parameters (the building’s fundamental period, its damping ratio and
the nondimensional parameter, 0) to calculate the discrete model’s dynamic properties.
The dynamic properties were calculated by assembling a stiffness and mass matrix for a
uniform, one bay frame and solving the resulting eigenvalue problem. Once the dynamic
properties were established, the model was subjected to the recorded ground motion from
the nearby recording station. The response was calculated by using Newmark’s time-
integration algorithm in combination with modal superposition to solve the equations of
motion for the multi-degree-of-freedom problem.
S2,
Steel Brace Frame 13.75 0.017H 0.9 0.3 6 0.2 0.03 0.35
S2A
S3 Steel Light Frame 13.0 0.038H 0.8 0.3 20 0.2 0.1057NS -0.565 0.35
RM1,
RM2,
Masonry Buildings 12.0 0.017H 0.3 5 0.2 0.278NS -0.701 0.20
URM,
URMA
Concrete Frame w/
C3, 9.0 – res., hotel
Infill Masonry Shear 0.015H 0.9 0.3 18 0.2 0.09NS -0.24 0.25
C3A 13.8 – other
Wall
Commercial Wood
W2 Frame Buildings 13.4 0.032H 0.55 0.3 15 0.2 0.077 0.40
(Longspan)
NOTE: H = height of building [ft] ( = typical interstory height [ft] * number of stories )
NS = number of stories above ground
4 3 4
3 3
Story
Floor
Floor
2
2 2
1 1 1
0 1 2 0 1 2 3 0 500 1000
Peak Displacement [cm] Peak IDR -3
x 10 Peak Floor Acceleration [cm/s.2]
4 3 4
3 3
Story
Floor
2 Floor
2 2
1 1 1
0 0.5 1 1.5 0 1 2 0 500 1000
Peak Displacement [cm] Peak IDR x 10
-3
Peak Floor Acceleration [cm/s.2]
The following summary sheets were assembled to consolidate all the structural
response and damage information gathered for each of the buildings from the ATC-38
report included in this study. Figure 5.6 illustrates how the information on each building
summary is laid out. General building characteristics and the assumed median and
dispersions of the building’s structural properties were reported. Figures showing peak
response parameters along the height of the building and tables summarizing the peak
state j, EDP is the median of the EDPs at which damage state j was observed, LnEDP is the
standard deviation of the natural logarithm of the EDPs, and is the cumulative standard
normal distribution (Gaussian distribution).
A lognormal distribution is chosen because it has been shown that it fits damage
data well for both structural components and nonstructural components (Porter and
Kiremidjian 2001, Aslani and Miranda 2005, Pagni and Lowes 2006). Theoretically, the
lognormal distribution is ideal because it equals zero probability for values of EDP that are
parameters: the median EDP ,and the lognormal standard deviation, LnEDP. Three different
methods were used to determine the statistical parameters of the lognormal distribution for
the fragility functions produced in this investigation: (1) the least squares method, (2) the
maximum likelihood method, and (3) the second method (“Method B”) for bounding EDPs
as proposed by Porter et al. (2007).
The least squares method is a common statistical approach that attempts to fit
observed data to the values produced by a predicting function. This is accomplished by
minimizing the sum of the square of the differences between the observed data and the
values, g edp , predicted by the proposed function, F edp . Mathematically, this can be
expressed as:
N 2
g edp1 ,..., edpN min F edpi DS j edpi (5.2)
i 1
where N is the number of data points, EDPi is the peak EDP observed for data point i, and
DSj(EDPi) indicates whether damage state j has been exceeded by taking on a binary value
of 1 when the damage state has been exceeded and 0 when the damage state has not
occurred. Figure 5.7 illustrates this procedure for damage state DS2 of drift-sensitive
nonstructural components based on the CSMIP data. The parameters EDP and LnEDP are
varied until the sum of the distances F edpi DS j edpi is minimized. The “Solver”
function in MS EXCEL was used to vary EDP and LnEDP, until a minimum value of
g edp was found.
0.80
0.60
F edpi DS j edpi
0.40
0.20
Predicted Value
Observed value
0.00
0 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.01
IDR
Figure 5.7 Difference between observed values and values predicted by a lognormal distribution for
damage state DS2 of drift-sensitive nonstructural components based on data from CSMIP.
L EDP, LnEDP g ds1 , ds2 ,..., dsn EDP, LnEDP (5.3)
where L( ) is the likelihood operator, the joint density is a function of EDP and LnEDP
rather than a function of dsi. If DSi are assumed to be identically distributed and
independent random variables, then their PDF is the product of the marginal densities such
that equation (5.3) becomes
The values of EDP and LnEDP that maximizes the likelihood function – that is, the values
that make the observing the damage state DS “most probable” – are the values that are
selected to define the parameters of fragility functions.
Since our damage states are discrete and binary (i.e. either the damage state has
occurred or not occurred), it is assumed that each DSi observation is an ordinary Bernoulli
random variable, where:
g dsi EDP, LnEDP F edpi
DSi
1 F edp
i
1 DSi
(5.5)
n
L EDP, LnEDP F edpi 1 F edp
DSi 1 DSi
i (5.6)
i
where F(EDPi) is the lognormal cdf as defined in equation (5.1) defined by the parameters
EDP and LnEDP. As was the case when using the least squares method, the MS EXCEL
solver tool was used to find the maximum value of equation (5.6) by varying the two
parameters of the lognormal distribution.
The bounding EDPs method determines the probability of a damage state occurring
from observed data, by dividing the data set into discrete bins based on equal increments of
EDPs as shown in Figure 5.8. For each subset of data in every bin, the probability of
damage state DS occurring is calculated in each bin, according to:
P DS 1 EDP edpi
m
(5.7)
M
where m is number of data points that experienced this level of damage and M is the total
number of data points within the bin being considered. These probabilities are then plotted
at the midpoints of the EDP ranges in each bin as shown by the hollow points in Figure 5.8.
A lognormal distribution is then fitted to these points by varying the parameters EDP and
LnEDP. The interested reader is directed to Porter et al. (2007) for more information
regarding this procedure for developing fragility functions.
P(DS2 | PBA)
1.00
0.80
Bin Size
0.60
0.40
Observed Data
0.20
Ratio of DS=1 per Bin
Fitted function
0.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000
2
PBA [cm/s ]
Figure 5.8 Developing fragility functions using the bounding EDPs method.
How robust the methods were in finding reliable parameters was dependent on the
data available. The three different methods were used to formulate fragility functions
because each of the methods had limitations in their ability to find reliable solutions for the
parameters of the lognormal distribution given the available data. In cases where one
method was not able to find a solution that was reliable, the other methods were used to
determine the values of EDP and LnEDP. Having several methods was necessary to
confirm that estimates of EDP and LnEDP obtained were fairly accurate based on the
available data extracted from the CSMIP and ATC-38 buildings.
There were situations where the available data made finding unique solutions for
EDP and LnEDP using the least squares and the maximum likelihood methods impossible.
For instance, finding unique solutions was impossible when the range of EDPs for the
buildings that experienced damage state DSj did not overlap with the range of EDPs for the
buildings that did not experience this level of damage. This situation is illustrated Figure
5.9(a) which shows the fragility function for DS5 of acceleration-sensitive nonstructural
components derived from the CSMIP data. The range of EDPs that do not experience
damage ends at a PBA value of 1080 cm/s2, while the range of EDPs that experience DS5
begins at a PBA of 1550 cm/s2. For a given value of EDP , there can be multiple values of
LnEDP that will yield a fitted lognormal distribution that passes through all the data points.
This is shown in Figure 5.9(a) for an assumed EDP value of 1,315 cm/s2 (the midpoint
between the bounding data points with PBA values of 1,080 and 1,550 cm/s2) where the
range of possible solutions for the fitted functions is represented in the bounded area with
the diagonally striped hatching. Similarly, for a very small value of LnEDP, such that the
fitted function is almost vertical, EDP can take on any value between 1,080 and 1,550
cm/s2 and still yield a lognormal distribution that pass through all the data points as shown
in Figure 5.9(a). Under these circumstances, it was decided that EDP would be taken to be
the midpoint of the bounding EDP data points. The associate dispersion, LnEDP, would be
chosen as the largest value that would still produce a fitted function that passes through all
the data points.
Area in which
0.40 0.40
possible fitted
functions can vary
within
0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
2 2
PBA [cm/s ] PBA [cm/s ]
Figure 5.9 Limitations of finding unique solutions for fragility function parameters (a) multiple
solutions for least squares and maximum likelikhood methods (b) multiple solutions for bounded
EDPs method.
The bounded EDPs method can also produce multiple solutions for estimated
fragility function parameters. The plotting position of the points that are used to fit the
lognormal distribution are highly dependent on number of data points and the distribution
of those points along the range of EDPs. Porter et al. (2007) suggests that this method
works best for data sets containing greater than 25 data points. The number of data points
and their distribution are important because the size and number of bins can be chosen
subjectively and consequently can change the resulting fitted functions. Figure 5.9(b) shows
the damage state DS4 for acceleration-sensitive nonstructural components that plots data
from the CSMIP buildings. The same data was used to derive fragility functions using 4
bins (solid line) and 3 bins (dashed line), yielding two very different probability
distributions. Typically, when confronted with different functions produced by selecting
different bin sizes, the function chosen was the one that was most similar to those produced
by the other methods.
For the most part, good agreement was shown between the three methods as shown in
Figure 5.10(a) for the DS2 damage state of drift-sensitive nonstructural components. In
instances where two of the methods showed good agreement and one did not, the
parameters from the methods that displayed closer results were used to define the fragility
function. An example of this is shown in Figure 5.10(b) for the DS 2 damage state of drift-
0.80 0.80
0.60 0.60
0.40 0.40
IDR IDR
Figure 5.10 Sample comparisons of different methods to formulate fragility functions (a) example
of all three methods agreeing (b) example of 2 out of 3 methods agreeing.
Once the parameters for the fragility functions were established using the
procedures presented in the previous sections the results were examined to see if the
resulting distributions were reasonable. Although the fragilities were based on actual
empirical data from earthquake reconnaissance, the motion-damage pairs have limitations
types of adjustments that were made to the parameters EDP and LnEDP. This set of
functions is for acceleration-sensitive nonstructural components based on data from
the CSMIP buildings. The example functions computed directly from the data using
the procedures described in the preceding sections are shown in Figure 5.11(a) and
their corresponding parameters are listed in Table 5.7. It can be observed that for
large accelerations (>1,300 cm/s2) that these functions estimate that the probability of
the damage state DS5 (Heavy damage) occurring, is higher than the probability of
DS3 (Light damage) or DS4 (Moderate damage), which, by definition of the damage
states, is impossible and problematic when estimating economic losses. Examining
the data used to compute the fragility for DS5 closer (as illustrated in Figure 5.9)
reveals that this function was based only one building experiencing damage that
0.80 0.80
0.60 0.60
0.40 0.40
DS 2: Slight
DS 3: Light
0.20 0.20
DS 4: Moderate
DS 5: Heavy
0.00 0.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
2 2
PBA [cm/s ] PBA [cm/s ]
Figure 5.11 (a) Sample fragility functions computed from data for accleration nonstructral
components (from CSMIP) (b) Sample functions after adjustments.
Table 5.7 Parameters for sample fragility functions computed directly and with adjustments from
data for accleration nonstructral components (from CSMIP).
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02
IDR
0.80 0.80
0.60 0.60
0.40 0.40
DS 2: Slight
DS 3: Light
0.20 0.20
DS 4: Moderate
DS 5: Heavy
0.00 0.00
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0 500 1000 1500 2000
2
IDR PBA [cm/s ]
Figure 5.12 CSMIP Fragility Functions for (a) Structural Damage vs. IDR (b) Nonstructural
Damage vs. IDR and (c) Nonstructural vs. PBA.
The value of EDPs at which damage initiates is of particular interest because it can
play a large role in computing the value expected annual loss (EAL). Expected annual loss
is the average economic loss that is expected to accrue every year in the building being
considered. It is a function of the expected economic losses as a function of seismic
intensity and the mean annual frequency of seismic ground motion intensity. The frequency
of occurrence for small ground motion intensities (intensity levels at which damage
initiates) is very high and has been shown to significantly contribute to value of EAL
(Aslani and Miranda, 2005). Therefore, to estimate EAL accurately, it is important that the
function of the first damage state does a relatively good job in capturing when damage
initiates.
CSMIP
Damage Structural | IDR Nonstructural | IDR Nonstructural | PBA [cm/s2]
State LN Standard LN Standard LN Standard
Median Median Median
Deviation Deviation Deviation
DS2 0.003 0.32 387 0.52
DS3 0.012 0.30 0.011 0.30 995 0.50
DS4 0.015 0.30 0.016 0.30 1202 0.36
DS5 1300 0.30
The CSMIP functions for drift-sensitive structural components are shown in Figure
5.12(a). This figure does not include the function for the DS2 damage state for slight
damage because the level of damage associated with this damage state is very small.
Structural damage at this level is typically too small to warrant any repair actions and
therefore is excluded from the results presented here. The first damage state of consequence
is DS3 (light damage), which represents a damage associated with 1-10% of the
replacement cost, has a median of IDR of 0.012 and a lognormal standard deviation of 0.30.
This value is in the same range of other fragility functions for structural components that
were computed using experimental data (see Chapter 4, Pagni and Lowes 2006). To
compare values of structural response that initiates damage, damage initiation is assumed to
occur at the level of EDP that results in a probability of experiencing or exceeding the first
level of damage of consequence equal to 1%. Using this criteria, the resulting value of IDR
at which damage initiates of structural components occurs at 0.006.
Figure 5.12(a) and Figure 5.12(b) show the resulting fragility functions for drift-
sensitive and acceleration-sensitive nonstructural components, respectively. These functions
are of particular interest because nonstructural components make up a large portion of a
building’s value and consequently can play a large role in economic losses due to
earthquake ground motions (Taghavi and Miranda, 2003). The median IDR and lognormal
standard deviation for the first damage state (DS2: Slight) of drift-sensitive components are
0.0030 and 0.30, respectively. According the criteria assumed in the previous paragraph,
this function estimates that damage initiates at an IDR of approximately 0.0014. These
parameters are in the same range of as other component-specific fragility functions that
have been computed from experimental data. For instance, the median IDR for the first
damage state of partitions has been previously computed to be 0.0021 by the ATC-58
project (ATC, 2007).
P(DS2 | EDP)
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000
2
PBA [cm/s ]
0.80 0.80
0.60 0.60
0.40 0.40
DS2: Slight
0.20 0.20 DS3: Light
DS4: Moderate
0.00 0.00
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02
IDR IDR
P(DS | PBA) (c) C-1 P(DS | PBA) (d) S-1
1.00 1.00
0.80 0.80
0.60 0.60
0.40 0.40
0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
2
PBA [cm/s ] PBA [cm/s ]
2
Figure 5.14 Fragility functions using subsets of ATC-38 Data based on type of structural system (a)
C-1: concrete moment frames – drift-sensitive (b) S-1: steel moment frames – drift-sensitive (c) C-
1: concrete moment frames – acceleration-sensitive (d) S-1: steel moment frames – acceleration-
sensitive
Table 5.9 Fragility function statistical parameters for subsets of ATC-38 data
Nonstructural | IDR
Damage C-1: Conc. Moment Frame S-1: Steel Moment Frame
State LN Standard LN Standard
Median Median
Deviation Deviation
DS2 0.002 0.25 0.0026 0.38
DS3 0.004 0.60 0.0050 0.40
DS4 0.0080 0.40
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
HAZUS
DS1: Slight
0.4 0.4
HAZUS DS1:
Slight
0.2 0.2 CSMIP
CSMIP DS2: DS2:Slight
Slight
0.0 0.0
0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
IDR PBA [g]
5.8 CONCLUSIONS
The preceding study consolidated data from instrumented CSMIP buildings and
buildings documented in the ATC-38 report to create data points that related structural
response parameters to damage states, or motion-damage pairs. Each building in the study
had detailed information and consistent measurements of the amount of damage these
building experienced. Approximate structural analyses using multi-degree of freedom
models were used to simulate structural response and estimate the EDPs associated with the
observed damage. Although these models are approximate, they yield more accurate
estimates of response parameters, as compared to those previously computed using spectral
single-degree of freedom systems.
Summary sheets detailing each building’s structural characteristics, response
parameter results and a summary of damage experienced were created to form a motion-
damage database. The sheets report two primary engineering demand parameters: peak
building acceleration and peak interstory drift ratio. The building summaries also report
each structures general damage, structural damage, nonstructural damage, equipment
damage and contents damage. The ATC-38 buildings also include more detailed
nonstructural damage information on structures’ partitions, lighting and ceiling. Once these
motion-damage pairs were generated, they were used to create fragility functions that
estimate the probability of experiencing or exceeding discrete levels of damage conditioned
on EDP.
Toolbox
Main Window
Story EDP-
Building Hazard
Characterization
DV Function
Module
Editor
Simulation
Bldg Cost
Response
Distribution
Module
EDP-DV
Module
Loss
Estimation
Module
Dissagregation
& Visualization
The seismic hazard module permits the user to import and visualize a user-supplied
site-specific seismic hazard curve or to use a USGS seismic hazard curve which can then be
modified to account for local site conditions.
Purpose: To input general building information such as number of stories, total building
value, and building use and to define the way the total cost of the building is distributed in
each floor and substructure.
(5) Select
method of
distributing cost
(3) Select
along height of
building use /
building
type
Purpose: To define, visualize, edit and delete EDP-DV functions used to by toolbox to
estimate loss.
(5) Press to
finalize and add
function
The process and interface for viewing, editing and deleting is similar and is illustrated in
Figure 6.5 in 3 steps:
Step 1: Select the EDP-DV function you want to view / edit / delete.
Step 2: Edit values as necessary (this step is not necessary if you are only viewing or
deleting functions).
Step 3: Press “Return / Accept Changes / Delete” button when finished.
Press to cancel
Press to plot
function
Purpose: This is window is the primary interface of the toolbox once the preliminary
building information and EDP-DV functions have been entered. The remaining modules of
the toolbox can be accessed from here. The use of this module is illustrated in Figure 6.7.
Press to exit
(4) Press to perform Toolbox
loss estimation
calculations using Loss
Estimation Module
Purpose: To define the seismic hazard curve for the site being considered. This is curve is
integrated with the vulnerability curves (expected losses given intensity) to obtain expected
annual losses (EAL).
The use of this module is illustrated in Figure 6.7. There are 3 steps to import a curve and 6
steps to look up a pre-defined curve.
Step 1: Select the desired method of defining the hazard curve. (A) The curve can be
imported from another program used to conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
(PSHA). (B) Alternatively, the curves for rock sites generated by USGS (USGS, 2005) can
be looked up by geographic coordinates and scaled to account for site-specific soil
conditions if desired.
To import a hazard curve:
Step 2: Enter the number of points needed to define the seismic hazard curve.
Step 3: Press ‘OK’ when finished.
To look up hazard curve using geographic coordinates:
Step 2: Input latitude coordinates.
Step 3: Input longitude coordinates.
Step 4: Enter the building’s fundamental period. (Seismic intensity is measured by spectral
acceleration at the fundamental period, Sa(T1))
Step 5: Select the desired method of scaling the hazard curve to account for site-specific
soil conditions. The values provided by USGS are for PSHA’s conducted assuming a rock
(or very stiff) site. Select this option to obtain values for a site located on rock (very stiff
soil).
Step 5B: Select this option to scale rock values using site amplification factors where the
type of soil defined by NEHRP soil classifications.
The use of this module is illustrated in Figure 6.8. There is 1 step to import a data from a
pre-formatted EXCEL file and 10 steps to enter the data manually.
Step 1: Select the desired method of importing the response data. (A) The module allows
data to be entered manually such that it does not matter what computer program is used to
generate the simulation data. (B) The module also is capable of importing data from an MS
EXCEL file that has been preformatted such that it can be read in by the toolbox properly.
Step 2: Enter the number ground motion records that were used in the structural analysis.
Results produced from each ground motion are used to produce statistical parameters
(median and lognormal standard deviation) for the probability of collapse and EDP (e.g.
IDR and PFA) values at each story/floor.
Step 3: Enter the number of levels of ground motion intensity that each record was scaled
to during structural analysis.
Step 4: Enter collapse data into the spreadsheet form provided. Space is provided for the
user to enter the value of seismic ground motion intensity at which the structure collapses
for each ground motion record. In addition, there are cells where the user can enter the
statistical parameters for the collapse fragility directly (median and lognormal standard
deviation of the collapse fragility function).
Step 5: Once the collapse data has been entered, press the ‘Add’ button to write the data
into the program’s memory.
Step 6: Press the ‘EDP DATA’ tab to switch to the form to enter in EDP data.
Step 7: Select the value of seismic intensity (IM level) that is currently being entered using
the pull-down menu provided.
Step 8: Enter in the EDP data generated from structural analysis. The first few lines are for
entering in peak IDRs for each story. The next few lines are for entering peak residual
The following windows allow users to make adjustments to the response simulation
data after the raw values have been imported. The user will have the opportunity to make
adjustments to the parameters of the collapse fragility. Based on the final collapse fragility
parameters, the toolbox will determine if there is enough EDP data to calculate losses at
enough ground motion intensity levels to complete the integration for EAL. If there is not
enough data, the program gives users the option of extrapolating the EDP data for higher
(11A) Adjustments to
the lognormal standard
deviation of the collapse
probability distribution
can be made here.
The use of this module is illustrated in Figure 6.11. There are 4 steps required to complete
this process.
Step 1: Click on the pull-down menu to select the desired floor to make EDP-DV function
assignments.
Purpose: To provide the user the option of considering building demolition losses given
that structure has not collapsed and to compute the loss estimation calculations.
The use of this module is illustrated in Figure 6.12. There are 5 steps to complete this
process.
Step 1: Click on the check box if monetary losses from building demolition conditioned on
non-collapsed are going to be considered in the analysis.
Step 2 & 3: If non-collapse losses due to building demolition are to be considered, enter the
statistical parameters for the probability of building demolition conditioned on residual IDR
in the textboxes provided.
Step 4: If non-collapse losses due to building demolition are to be considered, enter the
estimated percentage of the building’s replacement value that can be salvaged and reused.
Step 5: Press the ‘OK’ button when finished to start running the loss estimation
computations or press the ‘CANCEL’ button to return to the main window.
Figure 6.12 Loss Estimation Module - including building demolition losses given that the structure
has not collapsed.
Purpose: To display the results from the loss estimation computations. The module
displays total losses and disaggregated losses. Results for both expected losses as a
function of ground motion intensity and EALs are provided.
The types of results for expected loss as a function of ground motion intensity are illustrated
in Figure 6.13.
Graph A: This graph plots the total expected losses as a function of increasing levels of
ground motion intensity. This type of information can be used for so called “scenario-
based” events where the monetary loss can be found for a ground motion intensity of
particular interest. For instance, this graph may be used to obtain expected monetary loss
given the ground motion intensity level associated with the design basis earthquake (DBE),
the event with an exceedance rate of occurrence of 10% in 50 years. Also plotted on this
graph are the losses disaggregated with respect to losses given that the building has
collapsed, losses given that the building has not collapsed due to building demolition, and
losses given that the building has not collapsed due to repair costs. For each level of ground
motion intensity, the user can identify how much each of these sources of economic losses
contribute to the overall losses.
Graph B: This graph plots the loss given that the building has not collapsed due to repair
costs as a function of ground motion intensity, disaggregated by floor. This information is
useful to identify which floor(s) are contributing the most to losses due to non-collapse
caused by repair costs.
Graph C: This graph plots the loss given that the building has not collapsed due to repair
costs as a function of ground motion intensity disaggregated by types of building
components grouped as follows: (1) drift-sensitive structural components (2) drift-sensitive
nonstructural components and (3) acceleration-sensitive nonstructural components.
Figure 6.13 Total and disaggregation results for expected economic losses as a function of ground
motion intensity
The types of results for expected loss as a function of ground motion intensity are
illustrated in Figure 6.14. The total EAL and disaggregated EALs are tabulated in the upper
left part of the window.
Graph A: This pie graph plots the EAL disaggregated by collapse losses, non-collapse
losses due to building demolition and non-collapse losses due to repair costs.
Graph B: This pie graph plots the EAL of non-collapse losses due to repair costs
disaggregated by drift-sensitive structural components (ST | IDR), drift-sensitive
This part of the Graph A: This graph plots EAL Graph B: This graph plots EAL results
form summarizes results disaggregated by collapse for non-collapse losses due to repair
key values for the losses, non-collapse losses due to disaggregated by component type
EAL results demolition and non-collapse losses
due to repair. Press RETURN Press SAVE &
button to return CLOSE button to
to main window. save loss results
in output file.
Graph C: This graph plots EAL results that have Graph D: This graph plots EAL of non-collapse
been disaggregated by ground motion intensity losses due to repair disaggregated by both
level. component type and ground motion intensity level.
Figure 6.14 Total and disaggregation results for expected annual losses.
7 BENCHMARKING SEISMIC-INDUCED
ECONOMIC LOSSES USING STORY-BASED
LOSS ESTIMATION
Ramirez, C.M., A.B. Liel, J. Mitrani-Reiser, C.B. Haselton, A.D. Spear, J. Steiner, G.G.
Deierlein, E. Miranda. (2009), “Performance-Based Predictions of Earthquake-Induced
Economic Losses in Reinforced Concrete Frame Structures,” Earthquake Spectra, (in
preparation).
7.2 INTRODUCTION
Recent earthquakes in California, particularly Loma Prieta (1989) and Northridge
(1994), have demonstrated that while modern U.S. building codes have been relatively
successful in protecting human life in moderate magnitude events, significant economic
losses may still occur. These losses suggest that building owners and other stakeholders
may wish to evaluate other aspects of building seismic performance beyond protecting life-
safety. The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center has established a
framework for performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) that can be used to
assess several metrics of seismic performance, including economic losses, downtime and
number of fatalities (Krawinkler and Miranda, 2004). By providing quantitative measures
of structural performance, PBEE can be used to consider possible earthquake economic
losses and loss mitigation strategies when making design decisions.
Methodologies for predicting economic losses in earthquakes can be characterized
as either regional loss estimation or building-specific loss estimation. Regional loss
estimation predicts earthquake economic losses in a broad geographical area, by estimating
building inventory data and categorizing buildings into generic structural types to evaluate
earthquake performance In 1992, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
and the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) began funding the development of a
geographic information system (GIS)-based regional loss estimation methodology
(Whitman et al. 1997), which eventually was implemented in the widely-used computer
tool, HAZUS (National Institute of Building Sciences, 1997). Based on a building’s lateral
force resisting system, height and occupancy, structural response and damage is calculated
using pre-established capacity and fragility functions, to determine repair costs.
Generalizing buildings in this manner provides a simple and widely applicable way of
1.0E-01
1.0E-02
1.0E-03
1.0E-04
1.0E-05
0.01 0.1 1 10
IM = Sa(T1)
Figure 7.1 Ground motion probabilistic seismic hazard curves (Goulet et al., 200&)
The reinforced concrete frame structures were designed according to the 2003
International Building Code and related ACI and ASCE provisions by Haselton and
Deierlein (2007) (ACI 2002; ASCE 2002; ICC 2003,). Seismic design is based on the
mapped seismicity at the site of interest with Ss = 1.5g and S1 = 0.6g (these values define
corners of the design spectra, which is associated with a mean annual frequency of
approximately 10% in 50 years as specified in the International Building Code (ICC 2003)).
Each of the structures are designed to fully comply with the building code provisions for
special moment frames, including strong column-weak beam ratios, joint shear strength and
detailing provisions, and requirements for strength and stiffness. The buildings range in
height from 1 to 20 stories, and include both perimeter and space frame systems. Table 7.1
details the design parameters of the 30 buildings evaluated in this study. The shorter
buildings (1, 2 and 4-stories) have a plan area of 120 ft. x 180 ft. The taller buildings (8,
12, and 20 stories) have a smaller footprint, reflecting typical ratios of usable floor area to
lot sizes in high rise construction.
7.4.1 Architectural Layouts and Cost Estimates (developed by Spear and Steiner)
Building replacement costs were determined sing the RS Means Cost Estimating
Manuals (RS Means 2007). Table 7.2 reports the estimated replacements costs for all the
structures considered in this study, in terms of both total cost and costs per square foot.
Estimates developed using RS Means tend to be low compared to actual office building
construction costs in the geographical area being considered, but the method is used here as
a rational, systematic approach to estimate building replacement values. Since expected
losses are normalized by replacement costs to compare economic losses in different
structures underestimation of replacement costs is not a significant limitation, provided that
repair costs and replacement costs are consistent. Comparisons to other studies must be
made with caution as these normalized results are subjective to the method used to calculate
building replacement costs.
7.4.2 Nonlinear Simulation Models and Structural Analysis (computed by Liel and
Haselton)
Each of the RC frame structures of interest in this study was modeled in OpenSees
(PEER 2006), using a two-dimensional, three-bay model of the lateral resisting system and
a leaning (P-Δ) column. The model does not incorporate strength or stiffness from
components designed to resist gravity loads only. Beams and columns are modeled with
concentrated plastic hinge (lumped plasticity) elements, which employs a material model
developed by Ibarra et al.(2005). This model is defined by a monotonic backbone and
associated hysteretic rules, such that it can capture critical aspects of strength and stiffness
deterioration for predicting structural behavior up to collapse. Model parameters for RC
elements are predicted from design and detailing parameters on the basis of empirical
relationships developed from calibrating the material model to experimental data from more
than 250 tests of RC columns (Haselton et al. 2007). All model parameters represent
expected (average) values. Haselton and Deierlein (2007) have shown that the lumped
plasticity modeling approach provides reasonable results, compared to fiber-element
models, at low levels of deformation and, in addition, captures material nonlinearities as the
structure approaches collapse.
Nonlinear simulation models for RC frames are analyzed using the incremental
dynamic analysis (IDA) technique (Vamvatsikos and Cornell, 2002). The analysis utilizes
a suite of ground motion records, in order to capture the effects of variation in ground
STORY FLOOR
4 5
Sa Values
0.05
0.25
0.50
1.00
3 2.00 4
2 3
1 2
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0 1 2
PEAK IDR PEAK FLR ACCEL [g]
Figure 7.3 Peak EDPs along building height for Design 4-S-20-A-G (Hazelton and Deierlein, 2007)
fragilities directly can be misleading, because buildings have different fundamental periods
and therefore respond to different regions of the earthquake spectra. For purposes of
comparison, it is more appropriate to normalize the fragilities by the intensity of the Design
Basis Earthquake (DBE), defined as an earthquake with a spectral-ordinate equal to two-
thirds of the Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE)1, as shown in Figure 4(b). At the
DBE, the probability of collapse is fairly small for these modern code-conforming
structures (0.41% to 4.2%).
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
1-S-20-A-G
2-S-20-A-G
0.2 4-S-20-A-G 0.2
8-S-20-A-G
12-S-20-A-G
20-S-20-A-G
0.0 0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
IM = Sa [g] IM = Sa / Sa @ DBE
Figure 7.4 Collapse fragilities for 1, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 20 story space-frame buildings (Haselton and
Deierlein, 2007)
1
The MCE is a seismic event that has a 2% in 50 years frequency of occurrence. The DBE is defined as
two-thirds of the MCE, which is approximately equal to an event with a 10% in 50 years probability of
occurring for regions in the Western US.
Table 7.3 Structural design information and collapse results (Haselton and Deierlein 2007)
Adjusted
1st Mode Yield Base Adjusted MAF of
Design Design Base Geometric P(C | IM =
Design ID No. Period Shear Coeff. Log Std. Sa @ DBE collapse,
Number Shear Coeff. Mean, DBE)
(sec) Frm Pushover Dev., σLN λcol [10-4]
Sa(T1) [g]
1 1-S-20-A-G 0.42 0.125 0.47 3.35 0.68 1.00 3.8% 7.3
2 1-S-20-A-P 0.42 0.125 0.57 3.67 0.67 1.00 2.6% 4.7
3 1-S-20-A-F 0.42 0.125 0.47 3.36 0.68 1.00 3.8% 7.3
4 1-P-20-A-G 0.71 0.125 0.20 1.80 0.63 0.85 11.7% 17.3
5 2-S-20-A-G 0.63 0.125 0.39 3.55 0.65 0.95 2.2% 2.6
6 2-S-20-A-P 0.56 0.125 0.51 3.65 0.64 1.00 2.2% 2.2
7 2-S-20-A-F 0.63 0.125 0.37 2.94 0.66 0.95 4.4% 4.8
8 2-P-20-A-G 0.66 0.125 0.22 2.48 0.66 0.91 6.6% 8.7
9 4-P-20-A-G 1.12 0.092 0.14 1.56 0.62 0.54 4.3% 11.3
10 4-P-20-C-G 1.11 0.092 0.15 1.83 0.65 0.54 3.0% 8.1
11 4-S-20-A-G 0.94 0.092 0.24 2.22 0.63 0.64 2.4% 5.4
12 4-P-30-A-G 1.16 0.092 0.14 1.87 0.65 0.52 2.3% 8.2
13 4-S-30-A-G 0.86 0.092 0.27 3.17 0.65 0.70 1.0% 2.5
14 8-P-20-A-G 1.71 0.05 0.08 1.00 0.64 0.35 5.1% 25.5
15 8-S-20-A-G 1.80 0.05 0.11 1.23 0.62 0.33 1.9% 11.5
16 8-S-20-C-G 1.80 0.05 0.11 1.20 0.62 0.33 1.8% 9.2
17 8-S-20-B(1-65)-G 1.57 0.05 0.15 1.41 0.63 0.38 1.9% 10.0
18 8-S-20-B(1-80)-G 1.71 0.05 0.15 1.47 0.64 0.35 1.2% 8.7
19 8-S-20-B(2-65)-G 1.57 0.05 0.14 1.17 0.63 0.38 3.9% 16.8
20 8-S-20-B(2-80)-G 1.71 0.05 0.13 1.10 0.64 0.35 3.7% 16.8
21 12-P-20-A-G 2.01 0.044 0.08 0.85 0.62 0.30 4.6% 20.3
22 12-S-20-A-G 2.14 0.044 0.09 0.83 0.63 0.28 4.2% 15.5
23 12-S-20-C-G 2.13 0.044 0.09 0.96 0.63 0.31 3.9% 12.6
24 12-S-20-B(1-65)-G 1.92 0.044 0.14 1.06 0.63 0.31 2.6% 12.1
25 12-S-20-B(1-80)-G 2.09 0.044 0.10 0.95 0.62 0.29 2.7% 14.0
26 12-S-20-B(2-65)-G 1.92 0.044 0.11 0.95 0.62 0.31 3.7% 18.1
27 12-S-20-B(2-80)-G 2.09 0.044 0.10 0.84 0.63 0.29 4.3% 18.0
28 12-S-30-A-G 2.00 0.044 0.09 1.18 0.65 0.30 1.7% 8.5
29 20-P-20-A-G 2.63 0.044 0.07 0.71 0.62 0.23 3.3% 13.4
30 20-S-20-A-G 2.36 0.044 0.09 0.99 0.64 0.25 1.7% 9.0
Loss vulnerability curves were computed for every building in the study, as shown
in Figure 7.5 for a 4-story space frame building (Design 4-S-20-A-GB). Vulnerability
curves have a characteristic shape like that in Figure 7.5; losses initially increase fairly
linearly with increasing levels of ground motion intensity. The relationship subsequently
becomes more nonlinear (for Design 4-S-20-A-GB at Sa(T1) = 1.0g) and saturates at the
total median replacement cost of the building. For the 4-story building in Figure 7.5,
expected losses of $3.2 million, or 25.8% of the median replacement cost, are predicted
under the design basis earthquake (Sa(T1) = 0.64g). Figure 7.5 also disaggregates the
expected losses into mean losses due to collapse, and mean losses due to non-collapse.
Design 4-S-20-A-G’s losses are primarily dominated by the non-collapse losses at the lower
intensity ground motions (Sa(T1) = 0.05g to 0.60g) which have greater rate of occurrence.
At the DBE (Sa(T1) = 0.64), 94% of the expected loss is due to non-collapse losses. For
this building, non-collapse losses peak at an approximate Sa(T1) of 1.60g and collapse
losses do not begin to dominate until an intensity of 2.20g.
E[L | IM]
1.00
Total
Non-Collapse
Collapse
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
IM = Sa [g]
Figure 7.5 Expected loss given IM for 4-S-20-A-G (with collapse loss disaggregation)
60%
1 story 2 stories 4 stories 8 stories 12 stories 20 st
50%
Normalized Loss at DBE
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1314 15 16 17 1819 20 21 22 2324 25 26 27 2829 30
Design Number
Figure 7.6 Normalized expected economic loss results at DBE for 30 code-conforming RC frame
structures
The largest expected economic loss was experienced by the 1-story perimeter frame
(1-P-20-A-G) and is substantially greater than the other losses computed. According to
Curt Haselton (via verbal conversation), this building was designed with the specific intent
of making it as flexible as current US building codes would allow. The structure was
computed to have a median peak of IDR of 0.027 when subjected to ground motions equal
to the DBE (Sa(T1) = 0.85g). Although this value exceeds the code-specified limit of 0.025
for reinforced concrete moment frame structures (ICC, 2003) it is very close. Story drift
0.40 0.40
0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
IM = Sa / Sa @ DBE IM = Sa / Sa @ DBE
(c) STORY
(d)
STORY
0.60 12
4
Sa Values Sa Values
Space Frames
E[Loss] @ DBE [% of replacement cost]
0.05
11 0.05
Perimeter Frames 0.25 10 0.25
0.50 0.50
9 1.00
1.00
0.40 3 2.00 8 2.04
7
6
5
0.20 2
4
3
2
0.00 1 1
0 5 10 15 20 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0 0.05 0.1
Num of Stories PEAK IDR PEAK IDR
Figure 7.7 Effect of height on normalized expected losses conditioned on ground motion intensity:
(a) Space frames as a function of normalized ground motion intensity (b) Perimeter frames as a
function of normalized ground motion intensity (c) Normalized losses at the DBE as a function of
height (d) Comparison of peak IDRs between 4 & 12-story space-frame buildings to illustrate
concentration of lateral deformations.
The results reported so far are for structures that conform to current US building
codes. Several code provisions that significantly change structural behavior were studied to
evaluate the effect of relaxing or escalating the restrictions on building performance,
particularly economic losses. ACI code provisions require columns to be 1.2 times stronger
than beams at each joint (ΣMcolumn/ ΣMbeam), referred to as the strong-column, weak-beam
E[L | IM]
(a) (b)
1.00 E[L | IM = Sa @ DBE]
0.50
Non-Collapse
0.80
0.40 Collapse
0.60
0.30
4S30AG - SCWB = 0.4
0.40 4S30AG - SCWB = 0.6 0.20
4S30AG - SCWB = 0.8
4S30AG - SCWB = 1.0
0.20
4S30AG - SCWB = 1.2 0.10
4S30AG - SCWB = 1.5
4S30AG - SCWB = 2.0
4S30AG - SCWB = 3.0 0.00
0.00 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0 3.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
IM = Sa / Sa @ DBE
Strong-Col, Weak-Bm Ratio
Figure 7.8 Effect of strong-column, weak-beam ratio on: (a) normalized expected loss as a function
of normalized ground motion intensity (b) normalized expected loss at the DBE, disaggregated by
collapse & non-collapse losses.
Both figures demonstrate that SCWB ratios of 0.4 and 0.6 have larger economic
losses because of the higher probability of collapse in these cases. While the losses due to
collapse significantly decrease as the SCWB ratio increases, the total losses remain
approximately the same (~23-26%) for ratios greater than 0.8. In buildings with small
SCWB ratios column hinging occurs early and produces collapse mechanism in one story
and the probability of collapse increases. Since column hinging results in concentration of
lateral deformation demands in 1 or 2 stories, non-collapse losses are smaller and the total
losses are smaller and the total losses are dominated by collapse losses. Although
increasing the SCWB ratio reduces the probability of collapse by preventing hinging in the
E[L | IM]
1.00
R=4
R=8
0.80 R=10
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
IM = Sa / Sa @ DBE
Figure 7.9 Effect of design base shear on normalized expected loss as a function of ground motion
intensity
The other design parameters considered in this study had minimal influence on
expected losses. Structures that maintained uniform strength and stiffness of structural
EAL results for all the modern, code-forming RC buildings analyzed in this study
are shown in Figure 7.10. The expected annual losses vary between 0.4% and 1.5% of the
replacement costs (with one extreme outlying value of 3.3%), depending on the structure,
with the mean EAL for this set of structures of approximately 1.0%. The 20-story space
frame (20-S-20-A-G) has the lowest predicted expected annual losses, primarily because
damage tends to concentrate in smaller fraction of stories in taller building. The highest
expected annual loss relative to its replacement cost (3.3%) was experienced by a 1-story
perimeter frame structure (1-P-20-A-G, Design #4). As was described previously, this
building may not be representative of common engineering practice and can be considered
an outlier. If this structure is excluded, the mean EAL for this structure reduces to 0.94%.
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1314 15 16 17 1819 20 21 22 2324 25 26 27 2829 30
Design Number
25
-4
MAF Collapse x 10
20
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1314 1516 1718 1920 2122 232425 2627 2829 30
Design Number
Figure 7.11 Results of mean annual frequency of collapse for 30 code-conforming RC frame
structures (Haselton and Deierlein, 2007).
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.0%
0 10 20 30
-4
MAF Collapse (x10 )
-4
MAF Collapse (x10 ) (b) EAL (c)
30 1.6%
= -0.66 = 0.42
25
1.2%
20
15 0.8%
10
0.4%
5
0 0.0%
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Yield Base Shear Coefficient Yield Base Shear Coefficient
Figure 7.12 Scatter plots and correlation coefficients between: (a) EAL & MAF of collapse (b)
MAF of collapse & yield base shear coefficient (c) EAL & yield base shear coefficient
(a)
100%
Normalized PV of Losses over 50 yrs
1 story 2 stories 4 stories 8 stories 12 stories 20 st
(assuming a discount rate of 3%)
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920 21 22 23 24 25 2627 28 29 30
Design Number
(b)
80%
PV of Expected Loss over 50 years
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Discount Rate
Figure 7.13 Present value of normalized economic losses over 50 years for 30 code-conforming RC
frame structures: (a) Present value of losses for each building at a discount rate of 3% (b) Range of
present value of losses as a function of discount rate (excluding design number 4).
Figure 7.13(b) gives a likely range where present value of expected losses are likely
to be for buildings designed according to present code. This figure highlights two
important things: (1) the range of losses over buildings that are expected to have similar
performance, may end up varying by a factor as high as three, and (2) the losses are fairly
large (ranging from 11% to 36% at a discount of 3%). Assuming the discount rate of 3%,
stakeholders may lose up to 36% of their initial investment due to future earthquakes.
100%
(a)
Non-ductile (1967) Ductile (2003)
Normalized Loss at DBE
80%
Perimeter
Space
60%
40%
20%
0%
2-story 4-story 8-story 12-story 2-story 4-story 8-story 12-story
10%
(b)
Normalized Expected Annual Loss
4%
2%
0%
2-story 4-story 8-story 12-story 2-story 4-story 8-story 12-story
Figure 7.14 Comparison between normalized economic loss results between modern, ductile (2003)
and older, non-ductile reinforce concrete frame structures: (a) Expected loss at DBE (b) EAL
Non-
Collapse
97%
Collpase
3%
Collpase
28%
Non-ductile (1967) Ductile (2003)
Figure 7.15 Comparison of EAL disaggregation of collapse and non-collapse losses for non-ductile
and ductile frames
Previous loss estimation methods have relied heavily on expert opinion and
engineering judgment, making the results open to subjectivity (Aslani and Miranda, 2005).
One of the goals of PEER’s building-specific loss methodologies is to establish a
framework that is rational and generates vulnerability curves from data that is well-
documented. It is also important that the methodology produces results that are consistent
and robust given the same input data and parameters. Mitrani-Reiser and Beck (2007)
developed a computer tool, the MATLAB Damage and Loss Analysis (MLDA) toolbox,
0.40 0.40
0.20 0.20
Perimeter Frames
Space Frames
0.00 0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
IM = Sa / Sa @ DBE IM = Sa / Sa @ DBE
Figure 7.16 Comparison of vulnerability curves from this study and from MDLA: (a) perimeter
frames (b) space frames
The collapse losses in both approaches are identical because the main equation to
compute these losses (Chapter 3, equation 3.2) and the parameters that go into the equation,
the building replacement costs and collapse fragilities, are the same. Therefore, the way
non-collapse losses are computed can be the only source of discrepancy. The space frames
exhibit larger differences in estimations between the two approaches because the non-
collapse losses play a larger role in the overall losses. Space frames have lower
Table 7.5 Comparison of assumed repair costs for final damage state of groups of components of
the baseline 4-story buildings, normalized by building replacement value
Perimeter Space
Component
MDLA This study MDLA This study
Beam-Column 41.2% 11.4% 102.1% 16.4%
Slab-Column 2.2% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nonstructural 19.8% 91.1% 19.0% 91.1%
TOTAL 63.1% 108.5% 121.1% 107.5%
Although the expected economic loss results presented in this study are consistent
with results produced by other research efforts using PEER’s framework, they may differ,
in some cases, from those computed using other methodologies (e.g. regional loss
7.6 LIMITATIONS
In conducting this study, we encountered a variety of challenges in implementing
the PEER methodology for predicting economic losses that warrant further research. These
items include:
In the current study, uncertainties in structural modeling were incorporated in
predictions of the structural collapse limit state, but not the non-collapse EDPs.
These modeling uncertainties represent the uncertainty in how well the model
reflects the true behavior of the structure. Modeling uncertainties have a particularly
important effect in highly nonlinear limit states such as collapse, because these
phenomena are more difficult to model. Previous studies have shown them to be
less significant for smaller levels of structural response that tend to dominate losses
7.7 CONCLUSIONS
PEER’s performance-based earthquake engineering methodology was used to
evaluate economic losses for a set of 30 modern concrete moment frame buildings. All the
buildings were designed -- structurally and architecturally -- to provide a realistic inventory
of damageable components. The structural designs are representative of modern code-
conforming structures and were reviewed by a practicing engineer as part of the Applied
Technology Council Project 63 (ATC 2008). Results from probabilistic seismic hazard
analysis and incremental dynamic analysis performed by previous investigators (Goulet et
al. 2007, Haselton and Deierlein 2007) were used to evaluate the site’s hazard and structural
response respectively. Ramirez and Miranda’s toolbox (2009) was then used to calculate
damage and economic loss, defined as cost of repairing earthquake damage, of each
structure. Seismic performance metrics generated in this study include expected losses
8.2 INTRODUCTION
Estimating expected annual monetary losses in a building due to damage from
seismic ground motions is of great interest to stakeholders & decision makers.
Consequently, building-specific loss estimation is also currently being incorporated into
performance-based design methodologies. For instance, one approach taken by the Pacific
Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center is to use expected losses as a metric for
structural performance during seismic events. In addition to knowing mean losses, there is
also interest in quantifying the probable range these economic losses can lie within and how
large these losses can become. Computing this type of information requires knowing the
variability associated with estimating these losses. Both the mean and variability of
Data on construction costs are scarce because of the way contractors price
construction projects. Contractors keep internal cost databases and price projects based on
previous costs of past projects. These databases are usually kept private to maintain a
competitive edge when bidding for projects, and as a result, are not typically accessible to
researchers. Furthermore, although subcontractors may use unit costs for preparing their
bids, usually their budgets only include budgets and schedules for all of the work that they
will be conducting and not broken down component by component. Therefore, variability of
constructions costs and the correlation among them is not available because is typically not
provided to general contractors.
Building-specific loss estimation has typically computed expected earthquake losses
and loss dispersions on a component-by-component basis. Aslani and Miranda (2005)
developed closed-form solutions to compute the loss dispersion for the entire building by
Table 8.1 Statistical data of construction costs per subcontractor (Touran & Suphot, 1997)
Mean StdDev LN
Subcontractor COV LN Mean
($/sf) ($/sf) StdDev
Concrete 5.8 5.52 0.95 1.44 0.8
Masonry 3.86 3.28 0.85 1.08 0.74
Metals 5.12 3.8 0.74 1.41 0.66
Carpentry 3.58 3.96 1.11 0.88 0.89
Moisture Protection 2.95 2.44 0.83 0.82 0.72
Doors, windows, and glass 3.78 3.11 0.82 1.07 0.72
Finishes 5.84 3.74 0.64 1.59 0.59
Mechanical 8.94 5.84 0.65 2.01 0.6
Electrical 5.61 3.45 0.61 1.56 0.57
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes 0% 0% 0% 40% 0% 0% 0% 60% 0% 0%
Interior Doors 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Fittings 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 50% 0% 0%
Stair Construction 0% 5% 0% 90% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0%
Floor Finishes 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Ceiling Finishes 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Escalators & Moving Walks
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Domestic Water Distribution 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Rain Water Drainage 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
D30 HVAC
Energy Supply 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Heat Generating Systems 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Cooling Generating Systems 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Terminal & Package Units 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Standpipes 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Lighting & Branch Wiring 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Lighting & Branch Wiring 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Lighting & Branch Wiring 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Communications & Security 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Communications & Security 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Communications & Security 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Other Electrical Systems 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
8.3.1.1 Inherent subcontractor cost correlation due to work performed on the same
floor/story
In addition to the correlations between subcontractor costs that are obtained from
construction cost data, there is another type of correlation between subcontractor losses that
needs to be accounted for. Monetary losses due to work done by different subcontractors on
drift-sensitive components on the same floor/story will be fully correlated because the
damage on that floor/story will depend on the same EDP. Similarly, economic losses due to
repairs done by different subcontractors on acceleration-sensitive components on the same
floor/story will be fully correlated because the damage on that floor/story will depend on
the same EDP. As a result, when the losses due to each subcontractor are summed for the
entire building, the total losses due to each subcontractor will be correlated because their
losses per floor are fully correlated. That is, a significant amount of work done by different
subcontractors will be correlated because portions of the work are triggered by the same
Lk ,1 g k EDP1 (8.1)
Lk ,2 g k EDP2 (8.2)
where Lk,1 and Lk,2 denotes the value of loss due to subcontractor k due to EDPs in the 1st
and 2nd floors, respectively. Similarly, Lk’,1 and Lk’,2 denote the losses due to subcontractor
k’ in the 1st and 2nd floors and can also be computed using the EDP-DV function gk’(EDPj).
Note that losses computed from both subcontractors are dependent on the same EDPs. To
compute the total economic losses per subcontractor for the entire building, these losses can
be summed using the following equations:
Lk Lk ,1 Lk ,2 (8.3)
These equations demonstrate that because g k EDP1 and g k EDP1 are both dependent
on EDP1 they are highly correlated. Similarly, g k EDP2 and g k EDP2 are also highly
correlated because both are dependent on EDP2. This implies that correlation will also
exists between the losses due to work performed by subcontractor k and subcontractor k’, Lk
and Lk’ even if constructions costs of subcontractors k and k’ are uncorrelated.
k,2
Lk,2
k,1
Lk,1 k,1
1 1 2 2
EDP1 EDP2
EDP
k’,2
Lk’,2
k’,2
k’,1
Lk’,1
k’,1
1 1 2 2
EDP1 EDP2
EDP
1. Figure 8.1 Correlation between subcontractor losses due to EDP variance (a) EDP-DV
function for subcontractor k (b) EDP-DV function for subcontractor k'
This type of correlation will influence the variability of Lk and Lk’ even when the
EDPs are uncorrelated. EDP1 and EDP2 can be modeled as random variables using
probability distributions as shown in the figure with standard deviations, 1 and 2,
respectively. The EDP-DV functions can be used to propagate the dispersion of the EDPs
to loss dispersions for each subcontractor at each floor using either FOSM or simulation
methods (as will be demonstrated in greater detail later in section 8.4.3.2). For the purposes
of this illustrative example, FOSM can be used to compute the dispersion of the losses due
to EDP variability as follows:
2
g
2
2
k
12 (8.7)
k ,1 k ,1
EDP1
mEDP 1
2
g
k2,2 k
22 (8.8)
EDP2
mEDP 1
derivatives of g k EDPj evaluated at the mean values of EDP 1 (mEDP1) and EDP2 (mEDP1),
respectively. Likewise, the standard deviations of the loss of subcontractor k’, denoted k’,1
and k’,2 for dispersions at the 1st and 2nd floor respectively, can be found using analogous
expressions using the derivatives of g k EDPj . Assuming that the EDPs at different
stories are uncorrelated, the total dispersion for each subcontractor can be found using the
sum of squares as shown using these equations:
where k and k’ and are the standard deviations of economic losses for work performed by
subcontractor k and subcontractor k’ in all floors, respectively. To obtain the dispersion of
economic losses of the entire building, the results from equations (8.9) and (8.10) can be
summed together. However, because this inherent correlation between losses due to work
performed by different subcontractors exists, the covariance produced by this correlation
needs to be accounted for as follows:
BLDG
2
k2 k2 2 k , k (8.11)
where BLDG is the standard deviation of economic loss for the entire building and k,k’ is the
covariance between losses due work performed by subcontractor k and subcontractor k’ that
results from this inherent correlation. This covariance can be estimated as follows:
g k g k g k g k
k ,k 12 22 (8.12)
EDP1 mEDP 1
EDP1 mEDP1 EDP2 mEDP 2 EDP2 mEDP 2
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
IDR [%]
Figure 8.2 EDP data from incremental dynamic analysis at increasing IM levels
IDR @ 2nd Story (a) Sa = 0.55g PFA @ 4th Floor [g] (b) Sa = 0.55g PFA @ 4th Floor [g] (c) Sa = 0.55g
0.06 1.5 1.5
Correlations between response parameters can also vary as the intensity level of the
ground motions is increased. Figure 8.4 shows scatter plots between different EDPs at two
different levels of ground motion intensity. It can be observed from these plots that
parameters that are highly correlated at lower intensity levels can either remain highly
correlated, or decrease their level of correlation at higher levels of intensity (Figure 8.4 (a)
to (d)). On the other hand, parameters that are initially poorly correlated, can increase their
level of correlation as the earthquake intensity is increased (Figure 8.4 (e) to (f)). To better
illustrate this, Figure 8.5 plots correlations coefficients for a range of seismic intensities
(measured in spectral acceleration at the fundamental period, Sa(T1)). The figure shows the
same three trends of variation in correlation coefficients in Figure 8.4. Most changes in
correlation occur because of the change from elastic to inelastic behavior when damage
occurs to the structure. For instance, IDR in the fourth story and PFA in the fifth floor are
highly correlated at lower ground motion intensities because they are close in proximity to
each other, the structure is likely first-mode dominated (low-rises structure) and because
linear relationships exist between displacements and accelerations before the structure
yields. However, the EDP correlation decreases at higher seismic intensities because at
IDR @ 2nd Story (a) Sa = 0.25g IDR @ 2nd Story (b) Sa = 1.6g
0.010 0.10
0.008 0.08
0.006 0.06
0.004 0.04
0.002 0.02
= 0.97 = 0.95
0.000 0.00
0 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1
IDR @ 1st Story IDR @ 1st Story
PFA @ 5th Floor [g] (c) Sa = 0.25g PFA @ 5th Floor [g] (d) Sa = 1.6g
0.5 2.5
0.4 2.0
0.3 1.5
0.2 1.0
0.1 0.5
= 0.87 = 0.18
0.0 0.0
0 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1
IDR @ 4th Story IDR @ 4th Story
RIDR @ 4th Story (e) Sa = 0.25g RIDR @ 4th Story (f) Sa = 1.6g
0.00025 0.10
= 0.22 = 0.79
0.00020 0.08
0.00015 0.06
0.00010 0.04
0.00005 0.02
0.00000 0.00
0 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1
IDR @ 4th Story IDR @ 4th Story
Figure 8.4 Correlation trends at low and high seismic intensity levels
Figure 8.6 shows the standard deviations as a function of the average values for the
correlation coefficients listed in Table 8.4. EDPs that are well correlated have smaller
variability than those that are not well correlated. Figure 8.6 also includes results for
correlation coefficients when only 10 ground motions are sampled for each realization of
the bootstrapping process. The standard deviations are much larger when compared to
results using 80 ground motions, suggesting that the estimates are much less reliable.
0.50
Std. Dev.of Correlation Coeff Estimations
80 Ground Motions
10 Ground Motions
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
Avg. of Correlation Coeff Estimations
Figure 8.6 Relationship between average and standard error of correlation coefficient estimates
Perhaps a better way of capturing how well correlation coefficients are estimated is
to calculate 95% confidence bands of the bootstrap samples. The upper confidence band in
this context is defined by the difference between the 97.5th percentile and the median value
of the correlation coefficient estimates, whereas the lower confidence band is defined by the
1.0
80 Ground Motions
10 Ground Motions
0.5
95% Confidence Bands
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Median of Correlation Coeff. Estimates
Figure 8.7 Difference between 97.5th and 2.5th percentiles confidence bands with median estimates
of correlation coefficients
This trend – correlation coefficients are more difficult to estimate as their value
approaches zero – is not something that is specific to response parameter correlations and is
a well established statistical phenomenon. A closed-form solution exists to compute the
bands shown in Figure 8.7 (Neter et al, 1996). Estimating these intervals is usually
conducted by using an approximate procedure based on a transformation. This
transformation, known as the Fisher z transformation, is as follows:
1 1
z ln (8.13)
2 1
1
z2 (8.14)
N 3
z 1.96 z (8.15)
where 1.96 is the value of the 1 2 100 percentile of the standard normal distribution
for confidence value of 95% ( = 5). The 95% confidence limits for can then be
computed by transforming the limits obtained from equation (8.15) back in terms of using
the inverse solution of equation (8.13). Figure 8.8(b) compares the results from this
procedure to the bands obtained from the example building’s EDP data for N = 10 and 80.
The figure shows that there is fairly good agreement between the EDP data generated from
the bootstrap sampling and the analytical procedure. Figure 8.8(a) uses the analytical
procedure to approximate the 95% confidence bands for N = 10, 20, 40 and 80 ground
motions. As the number of ground motions considered are decreased, the difference
between confidence bands and median increases. This procedure can be used to help
engineers decide how many ground motions to use during structural analysis based on how
well analysts would like to approximate EDP correlation coefficients.
0.0 0.0
-0.5 -0.5
-1.0 -1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Median of Correlation Coeff. Estimates Median of Correlation Coeff. Estimates
Figure 8.8 Confidence bands using closed form solution for different number of ground motions (a)
bands for N = 10, 20, 40 and 80 (b) comparison with data from example building.
The confidence bands in Figure 8.8 illustrate that the number of ground motions
considered can have a large effect on the EDP correlation coefficients estimated and,
consequently, can have a large effect on the value of economic loss dispersion computed.
For instance, the mean correlation coefficient between the 3rd story IDR and the 3rd floor
PFA is equal to 0.30 for the example building (given that the spectral acceleration at the
fundamental period equal to 0.55g’s) as shown in Table 8.4. According to the results in
Figure 8.8(a), the estimated value of this coefficient could vary between approximately -
0.40 and 0.75 if only 10 ground motions are considered. This means that if only 10 ground
motions are considered, the correlation between these two EDPs can be estimated to be
either negatively correlated or strongly positively correlated. This will yield opposite
effects on the value of the overall economic loss dispersion, resulting in a poor estimate of
the loss variability.
Previous studies (Aslani and Miranda, 2005) have established that a building’s
mean annual frequency of exceeding a particular value of monetary loss, lT, can be
calculated using:
dv IM
v LT lT P LT lT IM dIM (8.16)
0
dIM
given non-collapse at a seismic intensity level IM=im, and v IM is the mean annual
frequency of exceeding a seismic intensity IM (taken from the seismic hazard curve,
generated from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). Aslani and Miranda (2005) have
distribution. To define this probability distribution, the mean and dispersion of the
estimated economic loss need to be computed. Computing the mean of the loss is described
in greater detail in Chapter 3. The following paragraphs will present an approach to
compute the dispersion of loss conditioned on the level of ground motion intensity, 2L IM
.
T
Baker and Cornell (2003) and Aslani and Miranda (2005) have proposed using the
following equation to compute the variance of losses conditioned on IM:
2L IM
2LT NC , IM P NC IM 2LT C P C IM
T
P NC IM
2
E LT NC , IM E LT IM (8.17)
E L P C IM
2
T C E LT IM
conditioned on IM, respectively (note that these probabilities are complimentary such that
denoted by E LT NC , IM , the expected loss given that the building collapsed is denoted
by E LT C (taken to be the mean replacement value of the building) and the expected
variance of loss conditioned on collapse and the variance of loss conditioned on non-
collapse are represented by 2L C
and 2L NC , IM
, respectively.
T T
construction cost data similar to those shown in Table 8.2. The expected loss conditioned
defined as the cost of constructing a new structure to replace the one that has collapsed
(including the costs for removing the collapsed building). The dispersion associated with
this loss is assumed to be similar to the variability of the cost of constructing a new building
of the same occupancy that can be obtained from construction cost data.
The variance of economic loss conditioned on collapse, 2L C
, can be obtained
T
form the standard deviations of the loss conditioned on collapse due to each subcontractor
k, L C
, as follows:
k
l l
2L C
k ,k Lk C Lk C
T
k 1 k 1
l l l (8.18)
2Lk C k ,k Lk C Lk C
k 1 k 1 k 1
k k
computed using:
L C
k E Lk C (8.19)
k
where k is the coefficient of variation of the construction costs for the kth subcontractor
is extracted from construction cost data and E Lk C can be found computed from the
E Lk C bk E LT C (8.20)
where b’k is the normalized proportion of the building replacement cost that is due to the kth
subcontractor. This value can also be determined from construction cost data by dividing
the mean cost of each subcontractor by the total mean cost of the entire building.
complicated. Not only does estimating this type of loss dispersion involve the variability of
construction costs, it must account for variabilities from structural response and fragility
functions. The variability due to fragility functions is accounted for indirectly by collapsing
on EDP is expressed as E L EDP , it is implied that this value is also conditioned on non-
collapse as well (i.e. it is implied that the expected loss is conditioned on EDP and on the
Estimating damage is collapsed out because the damage states for each component
are discrete random variables. The next step in this approach will involve using FOSM
methods to propagate response parameter dispersions. Using FOSM methods can become
EDP has been experienced, E Li EDPj , can be calculated using the following equation
p
E Li EDPj E Li DS q P DS dsq EDPj (8.21)
q 1
where E Li DS q is the expected repair cost of the ith component given it has experienced
damage state, DSq=dsq, and P DS dsq EDPj is the probability of the component being
costs for each damage state. However, since data on the dispersion of component costs
were unavailable, these investigations used building-level cost data to estimate the variance
of the repair costs for each damage state. Instead, the approach here will apply the
variability associated with construction costs when the losses are summed for the entire
building as will be described later in this chapter. This process more closely represents the
way costs are assembled in construction projects. Although the variance of loss conditioned
on EDP, 2L EDPj
, is not explicitly calculated, the dispersions of the fragility functions are
i
P DS ds y EDPj , which is defined by its mean and dispersion parameters.
In order to make use of the dispersions and correlations obtained from available
construction cost data, the losses need to be grouped by the different subcontractors being
considered. Up to this point the expected losses have been expressed per component. The
on non-collapse in Chapter 9). Expected values of losses ( E Lk , j EDPj ) for the jth EDP
n
E Lk , j EDPj E Lk ,i EDPj (8.23)
i 1
where n is the number of components whose damage depends on the same EDP. This
procedure is the same the one used to formulate the EDP-DV functions described Chapter 3
except that these functions in addition to being grouped by type of EDP, these functions are
also grouped by subcontractor cost using the assumed distributions in Table 8.3. Figure 8.9
and Figure 8.10 shows the subcontract floor used to calculate the dispersions for the
example 4-story reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame building. The expected
economic losses shown in these figures are normalized by the entire value of the story.
E( L | IDR) Drift-sensitive
0.30
Concrete
Metals
Doors, Window s, Glass
Finishes
0.25 Mechanical
Electrical
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.000 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100
IDR
Figure 8.9 EDP-DV functions for acceleration-sensitive components in a typical floor for the
example 4-story reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame office building
Mechanical
0.25
Electrical
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
PFA [g]
Figure 8.10 EDP-DV functions for drift-sensitive components in a typical floor for the example 4-
story reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame office building
The subcontractor EDP-DV functions shown in Figure 8.9 and Figure 8.10 can be
combined with the variability of EDPs conditioned on a given intensity level, IM=im, to
compute the dispersion of economic loss as a function of ground motion intensity. The
variability of EDPs for a given ground motion intensity level can be computed from
structural analysis. The EDP-DV functions, which express loss as function of EDP, can
then be used to translate the structural response dispersion into the variability of economic
loss due to the variability of EDP.
It has been suggested by previous investigators to use FOSM approximations to
accomplish this step in variability propagation (Benjamin and Cornell 1970, Ang and Tang
1984, Baker and Cornell 2008). Using the FOSM approach, the economic loss due to work
performed by subcontractor k to repair damage caused by EDP j conditioned on ground
motion intensity, Lk , j IM , can be calculated using a first-order Taylor expansion of the
economic loss due to work performed by subcontractor k to repair damage caused by EDP j,
Yk,,j, then the EDP-DV functions that relate the two variables can be denoted as
Lk , j IM is calculated by:
E Yk , j g k , j E X j (8.24)
The variance of this expected economic loss, Y2k , j , can be calculated using FOSM as
follows:
2
g
2
k, j x2 (8.25)
Yk , j x j
j mx j
2
where g k , j x j is the derivative of gk.j(X) evaluated at the mean of Xj, mxj and x2j is
mx j
the variance of Xj for the jth response parameter. The dispersion computed in equation
(8.25) only accounts for EDP variability and the variability from the fragility functions that
is embedded in the EDP-DV functions. The variability due to construction cost will be
incorporated in the following section. The correlations that exist between EDPs will also
produce variability and its influence needs to be considered by quantifying its associated
covariance. The covariance of economic losses between component groups whose damage
depends on response parameters j and j’, due to work performed by subcontractor k, Ykj ,kj ,
g k , j g k , j
Y x j , x j x j x j (8.26)
kj ,kj x x
j mx j j mx j
the variance of Xj’ for the j’th response parameter and x j , x j is the correlation coefficient
between Xj and Xj’ for the jth and j’th response parameter, respectively.
The total expected economic loss for each subcontractor k, E Yk , can be
m
E Yk E Yk , j (8.27)
j 1
The total variance of the economic loss for each subcontractor k, Y2k , is computed using the
results from equations (8.25) and (8.26), and adding the variability due to construction costs
as illustrated in the following expression:
m m
Y2 Y
k kj ,kj
Y2k
j 1 j 1
m m m
(8.28)
Yk , j Ykj ,kj Y2k
2
j 1 j 1 j 1
j j
where Y2k is the variance due construction costs for subcontractor k, which can be obtained
from cost databases. The dispersion results for this study will use cost data gathered by
Touran and Suphot (1997) as described in section 8.3.1. The second line of equation (8.28)
separates the variance terms (computed from equation (8.25)) and covariance terms
(computed from equation (8.26)) for clarity.
correlations from construction costs. This type of variability can be estimated using the
FOSM method with the following equation:
m m g k , j g k , j
Y x j , x j x j x j Yk ,Yk Yk Yk (8.29)
j 1 x j x j mx j
k ,k
j 1 mx j
where Yk is the standard deviation due construction costs for subcontractor k’ and Yk ,Yk is
the correlation coefficient between the construction costs of subcontractors k and k’. Both
Yk
and Yk ,Yk can be determined from construction cost databases similar to the
information described in section 8.3.1. Note that the first term in equation (8.29) is the term
that accounts for the inherent subcontractor loss correlations due EDP variability previously
described in section 8.3.1.1. The second term represents the covariance that results from the
correlations between construction costs of different subcontractors.
The expected economic loss for the entire building conditioned on non-collapse at a
given level of ground motion intensity, E Y , is computed by summing the losses due to
l
E Y E Yk (8.30)
k 1
where the second line of equation (8.31) separates the variance and covariance terms. The
first term of the second line is obtained from the results of equation (8.28) and the second
term is obtained from the results of (8.29). The final dispersion result in (8.31) accounts for
all three types of variability – variability from fragility functions, from response parameters
and from construction costs as well as their correlations.
Alternatively, the variability of economic loss can be computed by using Monte Carlo
simulation. Unlike the analytical method presented in the previous sections, Monte Carlo
simulations do not rely on approximations in variability propagation that the FOSM
methods do. However, Monte Carlo simulations are computationally intensive and may be
more difficult to implement.
Monte Carlo simulation can be used to predict the variability of economic loss using
the following steps:
1. Formulate EDP-DV functions for each subcontractor as described in section 8.4.3.1.
2. For each realization, simulate values of EDPs based on the statistical parameters at
given level of ground motion intensity computed from structural analysis.
3. Use EDP-DV functions and simulated EDP values to compute the expected
economic losses for each realization of EDP at each floor.
4. Sum the losses at each floor to obtain the total expected losses per subcontractor for
all floors.
5. Simulate the economic losses for each subcontractor as random variables by using
the total expected losses per subcontractor computed in step 4 as the mean and the
variability information extracted from construction cost data as the dispersion.
6. Sum the subcontractor losses simulated in step 5 to obtain the loss for the entire
building.
In this study, dispersion results for the example building using the Monte Carlo
simulation method described above was implemented by assuming lognormal probability
distributions for both the EDP simulations and the subcontractor loss simulations. To
obtain reliable results, 3000 realizations were used to obtain dispersion results at each level
of ground motion intensity.
Understanding how well FOSM methods approximate the direct solutions requires
examining the mean-valued Taylor series expansion of g k , j X evaluated around a point
X x
2
g 2 g
Y g x X x
x x x2 x
2!
(8.32)
X x
(n)
(n) g
x
xn x
n!
g g
Y g x X x
x x x x
(8.33)
X x X x
2 (n)
2 g (n) g
x
x2 x
2! xn x
n!
A first-order approximation truncates higher order terms such that equation (8.33) becomes:
Recognizing that only the second term in equation (8.34) is random and the other terms are
treated as constants, the mean value of Y is computed by applying the expectation operator
as follows:
g g
E Y g x E X x (8.35)
x x x x
E Y g mx (8.36)
Y2 E Y my
2
(8.37)
(8.36), equation (8.35) can be substituted into equation (8.37), which becomes:
g g
2
E g x
2
X x g my (8.38)
x x
Y
x x
g g
2
E
2
X mx (8.39)
x x
Y
mx mx
g
2
E X mx
2
2
(8.40)
x
Y
mx
2
g
E X mx
2 2
Y x
mx
2
(8.41)
g 2
x X
mx
The resulting equation in (8.41) shows the calculation of the derivative of g(X), g x m ,
x
becomes very important in the ability of FOSM to approximate the exact solution of Y2
well.
FOSM methods rely on approximating nonlinear functions using linear relationships
at the point of interest (which in this case is at the mean of X, mx ). Therefore, the quality
of FOSM approximations is dependent on how nonlinear g(X) is around this point and on
the level of dispersion of X. Figure 8.11 shows examples of two extremes that illustrate this
concept. In Figure 8.11(a), g(X) is linear and the solution the FOSM method yields is exact.
This is because the higher order terms in equation (8.33) are equal to zero for this case.
Conversely, if g(X) is highly nonlinear, as shown in Figure 8.11(b), then the FOSM
approximation deviates from the actual solution. As the nonlinearity of the function
g(x)
g
x g(x)
mx
y
y Y y
Y y
x x x x
X X
X X
Figure 8.11 FOSM approximations (a) linear function (b) non-linear function
The error of FOSM methods can be quantified by applying the expectation operator
to equation (8.33), substituting x mx and rearranging such that:
E X x E X x
2 (n)
2 g g
(n)
E Y g mx x (8.42)
x2 mx
2! xn mx
n!
If it is assumed that the first term of this equation is much larger than the other terms and
2 g x2
E Y g mx (8.43)
x2 mx
2!
nonlinearity of g(X) (as represented by the second derivative 2 g x2 ) but also on the
mx
follows:
g x0.84 g x0.16
mx x
g
(8.44)
x mx x x0.84 x0.16
where,
x0.16 mx x
(8.45)
x0.84 mx x
Using this method of computing the slope of g(X) improved dispersion results because
computing the derivative locally does not capture everything that occurs in g(X) within the
probable region of X (the most likely region of X being between mx +/- x ).
mean value of X occurs in a region where g(X) plateaus. Figure 8.12(a) shows that if the
derivative is computed locally, it would produce very small value of y . The figure also
shows that there is a large deviation between g(X) and the line produced by g x m
x
within the likely region of X, suggesting that errors between the exact solution and the
linear approximation are significant. Conversely, Figure 8.12(b) plots the variability
m
propagation using the alternative slope calculation ( g x mx x ). Using this method
x x
produces a larger value of y and a line that does a better job of following g(X). Rather
m
than obtain a slope based on one value of X ( mx ), g x mx x computes an average slope
x x
within the range of mx +/- x which captures more of the function g(X) in this region.
g(x) g(x)
y y
Y Y
m x x
g g
x mx x mx x
x x x x
X X
X X
Figure 8.12 Computing the derivative of g(X) (a) local derivative (b) average slope within region
that X will most likely occur in.
The two methods of computing the slope of g(X) were used on the example building
to see which approach produced better results for this case-study. Standard deviations
( Yk , j ) were calculated using both types of slope computations for all the possible
Table 8.6 Comparison of standard deviations of economic loss due to EDP variability only using
FOSM (local derivative) and simulation methods
As has been shown in the previous paragraphs, the accuracy of the FOSM method is
highly dependent on the level of dispersion of EDP and the shape and characteristics of
g(X). Since g(X) represents EDP-DV functions in the context of this dissertation, the
characteristics of typical EDP-DV functions can be identified to examine what common
situations will produce good FOSM approximations and what common situations produce
poor approximations. It can be observed from this dissertation (Chapter 3 and section
8.4.3.1) that many of these EDP-DV functions have typically an “S-shaped” curve. For
these types of functions, there are two primary regions where the curves are highly
nonlinear. Consequently, the FOSM method does not do as well in computing loss
dispersions in these ranges. The first nonlinear region, shown in Figure 8.13(a), is located
at the beginning of the curve at small values of X. In this range, the FOSM method tends to
underestimate the dispersion of economic loss in this range. The second nonlinear region
occurs when the function begins to level off (i.e. the top of the “S”) at large values of X as
shown in Figure 8.13(b). For the example building at the DBE, the loss dispersions
g(x) g(x)
y
Y
y
y
Y
y
x x x x
X X
X X
Y = g(X) (c)
g(x)
y
Y
y
x x
X
X
Figure 8.13 Typical cases of EDP-DV functions for FOSM approximations (a) under-
estimate at small values (b) over-estimate at large values (c) good approximation at
middle values
Figure 8.14 illustrates specific quantitative examples of the different cases discussed
in the previous paragraph using data from the example 4-story building and the EDP-DV
function for repair work done by the electrical subcontractor for drift-sensitive components.
Each graph plots economic loss normalized by the replacement value of the story as a
function of IDR and the slope using both types of methods described previously. The first
economic loss dispersion of 0.0075, which is 42% less than the value calculated using
m
simulation. If instead the average slope is used ( g x mx x = 2.9), the normalized
x x
economic loss dispersion is equal to 0.0083 using FOSM and is 35% less than the value
computed using simulation. Both methods of computing the slope for the FOSM approach
significantly underestimates the standard deviation because this region of the EDP-DV
function is highly nonlinear; however, using the average slope method produces results that
are closer to the value computed from simulation.
0.08 mx x
m x x
g mx g
0.06
x mx
x m x x
0.02
m x x
g 0.04
mx x
x m x x
g 0.02
mx x
mx x mx x mx
0.00 0.00
0.000 0.005 0.010 0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030
X = IDR X = IDR
Figure 8.14 Quantitative examples of FOSM approximations using the different slope methods
0.08
0.06
mx x
m x x
0.04 g
x m x x
g
0.02 mx x mx
mx x
0.00
0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030
X = IDR
Figure 8.14 Quantitative examples of FOSM approximations using the different slope methods
(cont.)
Figure 8.14(b) shows the same EDP-DV function when the example building is
subjected to a higher ground motion intensity (Sa(T1) = 0.80g). At this intensity, a mean
IDR of 0.016 is computed, which occurs later on in the EDP-DV function where the curve
begins to level off (i.e. at the top of the “S-shaped” curve). Monte Carlo simulation
computes a normalized standard deviation equal to 0.028 of the story replacement value.
Also shown in the figure is the slope of g(X) computed using g x m , which is equal to
x
m
4.7, and the slope computed using g x mx x , which is equal to 4.5. These values result
x x
in normalized standard deviations of 0.042 and 0.039 of the story replacement value,
respectively, using the FOSM method. Both these values overestimate the dispersion
computed using simulation because of the nonlinearity of the function for these values of
IDR. The difference between the value using simulation and the value computed using the
average slope method (41%), however, is smaller than the value calculated using the local
derivative.
The final example, shown in Figure 8.14(c), illustrates an instance where the mean
IDR occurs within a linear region of the EDP-DV function. This figure shows the interstory
drift at a ground motion intensity level of Sa(T1) = 0.30 which has a mean of 0.0096. The
normalized standard deviation computed using simulation is equal to 0.19. Both types of
The first set of results presented here are dispersions that only consider EDP
variability only. The results of this part of the overall dispersion are particularly important
because it is in this part of the analytical method that FOSM approximations are
implemented. Therefore, any differences between the analytical and simulation approaches
will occur in these results.
As was reported earlier, Table 8.7 shows the standard deviation results of economic
loss for each type of subcontractor and each type of EDP considered. The largest
underestimation of the standard deviation of economic loss occurs for the dispersion of the
electrical subcontractor losses at the 4th floor. The FOSM method computes a standard
deviation of $4,823, whereas simulation calculates a standard deviation of $7,324,
representing an underestimation of 34%. The underestimation occurs because the probable
range of this EDP is within a nonlinear region of the EDP-DV function. Specifically, the
probable values of this EDP are located in the bottom part of the “S”(as plotted in Figure
8.13(a) for illustrative purposes).
The largest overestimation occurred for the standard deviation of the economic
losses due to the drift-sensitive components within the finishes subcontractor at the 4th
story. Using the FOSM method, a standard deviation of $91,815 is computed, whereas the
standard deviation calculated from simulation is $72,106, which represents an
overestimation of 36%. This overestimation occurs because the probable values of IDR in
the 4th story are within a nonlinear region of the EDP-DV function for the losses due to the
finishes subcontractor. In this case, the values are overestimated because the probable
values of this EDP are located in the top part of “S” curve as illustrated in Figure 8.13(b).
These trends of underestimations and overestimations also occur for the remaining standard
deviations in Table 8.7. The magnitude of the differences from the simulation values
depend on how nonlinear the region of the EDP-DV function is within the region being
considered. As demonstrated by Table 8.7, these differences can be very large and may
lead to large errors in overall dispersions for the entire building.
The individual dispersions due to EDP variability in Table 8.7 can be summed
together to obtain dispersions for the entire building for each subcontractor. The standard
deviations due to construction cost variability can be also computed for each subcontractor
0.060
0.040
0.020
0.000
Concrete Masonry Metals Carpentry Moisture Doors, Finishes Mechanical Electrical
Protection Window s,
Glass
Figure 8.15 Standard deviations for each subcontractor loss (a) dispersions due to EDP variance
(b) dispersions due to construction cost variance
0.060
0.040
0.020
0.000
Concrete Masonry Metals Carpentry Moisture Doors, Finishes Mechanical Electrical
Protection Window s,
Glass
Figure 8.15 Standard deviations for each subcontractor loss (a) dispersions due to EDP variance
(b) dispersions due to construction cost variance (coont.)
In both figures, the finishes subcontractor has the largest standard deviation of all
the other construction trades. It has standard deviation of 0.021 for EDP variability and
0.99 for construction cost variability. The finishes standard deviations are the largest
primarily because the repairs associated with this subcontractor make up large portion of
the building’s mean losses. This can be inferred from Figure 8.10 where the EDP-DV
function for finishes subcontractor is larger than the other functions for the entire range of
IDR (the EDP-DV functions for acceleration-sensitive components can also be considered,
however, in Chapter 7, it was shown that for this type of structure, reinforced concrete
moment frame office building, the majority of the economic loss is due to repairs of drift-
sensitive components). Although it is useful to be able to disaggregate the overall standard
deviation to see which subcontractors have the largest contributions, these values are highly
dependent on their corresponding mean economic losses. The largest standard deviations
do not necessarily correspond to the largest variations relative to the mean values.
Standard deviations must be understood in the context of means such that variation
between random variables with wildly different means can be compared. The standard
deviations in Figure 8.15 can be normalized by their corresponding mean values of loss for
each subcontractor, k, (shown in Figure 8.16) to obtain coefficient of variation values, k,
which are shown in Figure 8.17. As was observed in Figure 8.15, these graphs also show
that the dispersions due to construction cost variability (Figure 8.17(b)) are greater than the
dispersions due to EDP variability (Figure 8.17(a)). However, unlike the standard
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Concrete Masonry Metals Carpentry Moisture Doors, Finishes Mechanical Electrical
Protection Window s,
Glass
Figure 8.16 Mean values of economic loss for each subcontractor at the DBE
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Concrete Masonry Metals Carpentry Moisture Doors, Finishes Mechanical Electrical
Protection Window s,
Glass
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Concrete Masonry Metals Carpentry Moisture Doors, Finishes Mechanical Electrical
Protection Window s,
Glass
Figure 8.17 Coefficient of variations for each subcontractor loss (a) dispersions due to EDP
variance (b) dispersions due to construction cost variance
Figure 8.15 and Figure 8.17 also compare dispersion results that were computed
using both the analytical and simulation approach. The dispersion results due to
construction costs show good agreement between the two approaches because the Monte
Carlo simulations are simulating the value of dispersions in Table 8.1 directly. That is, the
variances are not being propagated from one type of dispersion to another. The dispersion
results due to EDP variability do not match up as well as the results due to construction cost
variability because FOSM approximations are used to propagate the EDP variability.
Particularly, the standard deviations of the finishes and electrical subcontractors show the
largest discrepancies between the two methods, with differences of 18% and 22%,
respectively. The analytical results of these subcontractor dispersions do not agree as well
0.050
0.025
0.000
Equation (8.25) only Equation (8.25) w ith inherent
correlation
How well the analytical results can reproduce the results from simulation depend on
the quality of the variance approximations in equation (8.28) and covariance
approximations computed from equation (8.29). Results from these equations were used to
Table 8.8 Comparison of inherent subcontractor loss correlation coefficients due to EDP variability
between analytical and simulation results
Figure 8.19 shows the total standard deviation of economic loss conditioned on non-
collapse at the DBE for the example building, normalized by the replacement value of the
building, when considering different types of variability. There are six sets of bar graphs
0.200 Simulation
0.150
0.100
0.050
0.000
(1) EDP (2) Cost (3) EDP & cost (4) EDP & cost (5) EDP & cost (6) EDP & cost
variability only variability only variability variability w / variability w / variability w /
EDP correlations cost EDP & cost
only correlations correlations
Figure 8.19 Standard deviations of loss conditioned on non-collapse at the DBE considering
different types of variability and correlations
[L | NC, IM]
1.00
Analytical
0.80 Simulation
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
(1) EDP (2) Cost (3) EDP & cost (4) EDP & cost (5) EDP & cost (6) EDP & cost
variability only variability only variability variability w / variability w / variability w /
EDP correlations cost EDP & cost
only correlations correlations
Figure 8.20 Coefficient of variation of loss conditioned on non-collapse at the DBE considering
different types of variability and correlations
The analyses to generate results shown in section 8.5.1 were repeated for a range of
seismic intensities to obtain dispersion results as function ground motion intensity. The
standard deviations of economic loss conditioned on non-collapse as function of ground
motion intensity, measured here as spectral acceleration at the fundamental period, Sa(T1),
are shown in Figure 8.21 for six cases that were reported in Figure 8.19. The standard
deviations reported here are normalized by the replacement value of the building. Figure
8.21(a) shows loss dispersions due to EDP variability only, Figure 8.21(b) shows loss
dispersions due to construction cost variability only and Figure 8.21(c) shows loss
dispersions for both EDP and construction cost variability. The remaining three graphs,
Figure 8.21(d), Figure 8.21(e) and Figure 8.21(f), plot the dispersion results for EDP and
construction cost variability when combined with EDP correlations only, with construction
cost correlations only, and with both EDP and cost correlations combined, respectively.
0.30 0.30
0.20 0.20
0.10 0.10
0.00 0.00
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
IM = Sa [g] IM = Sa [g]
Simulation Simulation
0.30 0.30
0.20 0.20
0.10 0.10
0.00 0.00
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
IM = Sa [g] IM = Sa [g]
0.30 0.30
0.20 0.20
0.10 0.10
Analytical Analytical
Simulation Simulation
0.00 0.00
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
IM = Sa [g] IM = Sa [g]
Figure 8.21 Standard deviation of loss conditioned on non-collapse as a function of ground motion
intensity (a) EDP variability only (b) construction cost variability only (c) EDP & cost variability
(d) EDP & cost variability with EDP correlations (e) EDP & cost variability with construction cost
correlations (f) EDP & cost variability with EDP & cost correlations.
0.20
0.10
0.00
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
IM = Sa [g]
Figure 8.22 Economic loss standard deviations conditioned on non-collapse (normalized by the
building replacement value) as a function of ground motion intensity based on the results from the
simulation method.
0.10
0.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
IM = Sa [g]
Figure 8.23 Economic loss standard deviations conditioned on non-collapse (normalized by the
building replacement value) as a function of ground motion intensity for values of Sa(T1) ≤ 1.0g
based on the results from the simulation method.
considered. Using the procedure in section 8.4.2 and the data in Table 8.2, this value was
computed to be 0.43 when considering construction cost correlations and 0.27 when cost
correlations were not considered. These values are only due to the variability of
construction costs and do not vary with the level of ground motion intensity. Figure 8.24(a)
show the results for the variability of loss conditioned on non-collapse computed in the
previous section and Figure 8.24 (b) plots the variability of loss conditioned on collapse as
function of ground motion intensity. Each figure plots standard deviations that are
normalized by the replacement value of the building and reports results for two cases:
0.40 0.40
0.30 0.30
0.20 0.20
0.10 0.10
w/ No Correlations w/ No Correlations
[L | IM]
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
Figure 8.24 Normalized standard deviation for of loss (a) conditioned on non-collapse (b)
conditioned on collapse.
where the probability of collapse is small, the terms involving the dispersion conditioned on
non-collapse in equation (8.17) are very large compared to the terms involving the
ground motion intensity, collapse plays a larger role in economic losses and its
corresponding dispersion has a larger contribution to the overall variability. Consequently,
the non-collapse correlations are more influential at small ground motion intensities and
collapse correlations are more important at higher ground motion intensities.
Figure 8.25 shows the expected losses conditioned on ground motion intensity and
the associated standard deviations for particular values of intensity. The results are
normalized by the replacement value of the building. The seismic intensity associated with
the DBE, is equal to 0.52g. At this intensity, the expected loss is 0.31, with a standard
deviation of 0.21. This means that expected loss could be as small as 0.10 or as large as
0.52 of the building’s replacement value based on a 68% confidence interval (i.e. within
one standard deviation of the mean). This represents a coefficient of variation ([L | IM]) of
0.67.
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
IM = Sa [g]
Figure 8.25 Normalized expected loss and dispersion given IM for example 4-story office building
The coefficient of variation, [L | IM], as a function of ground motion intensity in this
building is plotted in Figure 8.26. At very small ground motion intensities, [L | IM] is very
large and is as high as 0.97 at an Sa(T1) = 0.10g. Previous economic loss estimation studies
(ATC 1997, National Institute of Building Sciences 1997) have typically assumed
dispersion values that vary between 0.6 and 0.8, which is, in general, in the same range as
those shown in Figure 8.26. However, for very small intensities, these studies may
underestimate the dispersion. The values in Figure 8.26 decrease as ground motion
intensity increases until it levels off at 0.43. This is equal to the coefficient of variation that
is computed for the economic losses conditioned on collapse computed from the data
gathered by Touran and Suphot (1997). The probability of collapse increases as the ground
motion intensity level increases, such that the variability of loss will approach the values of
dispersion conditioned on collapse shown in Figure 8.24(b).
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
IM = Sa [g]
Figure 8.26 Coefficient of variation as a function of intensity level for example building
The results in Figure 8.25 can be integrated with the building site’s hazard curve
using equation (8.16) to obtain values for the mean annual frequency (MAF) of loss. Figure
8.27(a) compares the MAF of loss between economic loss dispersions that consider
correlations and economic loss dispersions that do not consider correlations. The figure
shows that for high probability events that induce losses smaller than $2M, the effect of
correlations is negligible. For losses greater than this value the effect of correlations
becomes much more significant. At a loss of $12M, the assumed mean replacement value
of the building, the MAF of loss is equal to 6.6x10-5 without considering correlations. This
increases by 110% to 1.4x10-4 when correlations are considered. This trend is similar to the
results obtained by Aslani and Miranda (2005) and confirms the importance of accounting
for correlations when computing the variability of seismically-induced economic loss.
1.0E-02 1.0E-02
1.0E-03 1.0E-03
1.0E-04 1.0E-04
1.0E-05 1.0E-05
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20
Loss [$M] Loss [$M]
Figure 8.27 MAF of loss (a) effect of correlations (b) comparison between analytical and simulation
methods
Figure 8.27(b) compares the MAF of loss computed using the analytical approach
with MAF of loss computed using simulation. For this building, there is very little
difference between the loss curves computed from the different methods. This is because
most of the economic loss dispersion calculated in this study was due to the large values of
construction cost variability. This type of variability does not require the use of any FOSM
approximations to propagate uncertainty using the analytical method because they are
already expressed in terms of monetary value and taken directly from cost data. The
contributions of the EDP variability, which rely on FOSM approximations using the
analytical method, are small for this building. Further, the FOSM method, in this particular
case, does a relatively good job of estimating the EDP variability generated from simulation
(as shown in Figure 8.21) because the errors in approximating loss dispersions at each floor
(as reported in Table 8.7) seem to offset each other when they are summed together. There
may be cases in which these errors in dispersion at each floor amplify each other and result
in large errors in total loss dispersion due to EDP variability. This means that the
agreement between the analytical and simulation methods shown in Figure 8.27(b) may not
necessarily always hold true if the errors in EDP variability are large and the contributions
of EDP variability are also large.
9.1 INTRODUCTION
Observation of the performance of buildings in previous earthquakes indicates that
significant residual displacements may occur. Recent analytical and experimental studies
(Mahin and Bertero 1981, MacRae and Kawashima 1997, Pampanin et al. 2002, Ruiz-
Garcia and Miranda 2005) have shown that the likelihood of experiencing residual
deformations increases as the level of inelastic deformation increases. This suggests that
lateral force resisting systems that are capable of sustaining large lateral displacements are
more likely to experience residual deformations when subjected to seismic ground motions.
Although it has been demonstrated that structural systems with large deformation capacity
do a relatively good job in reducing the probability of collapse in buildings (Haselton and
Deierlein, 2007), these structures are more likely sustain residual drifts that may result in
poor performance when considering other metrics such as economic losses and the loss of
facility use after and earthquake has occurred.
Residual displacements and its consequences play an important role in structural
performance (Ruiz-Garcia & Miranda 2005). In the 1985 Michoacan earthquake, for
instance, numerous reinforced concrete buildings were demolished in Mexico City because
of the complications associated with repairing and straightening the permanent
deformations the structures experienced (Rosenblueth and Meli, 1986). In another example,
E LT | IM E LT | NC R, IM P NC R | IM E LT | C P C | IM (9.1)
where E[LT | NC ∩ R, IM] is the expected value of the total loss in the building provided
that collapse does not occur (non-collapse) and the building is repaired given that it has
been subjected to earthquakes with a ground motion intensity IM=im, and E[LT | C] is the
expected loss in the building when collapse occurs in the building. The weights on these
two expected losses are P(NC ∩ R | IM) which is the probability that the building will not
collapse and that it will be repaired given that it has been subjected to earthquakes with a
ground motion intensity IM=im, and P(C | IM) is the probability that the structure will
collapse under a ground motion with a level of intensity, im.
Previous investigations have not included the consequence of earthquake damage
when collapse does not occur but the building has to be demolished, D (i.e., NC ∩ D). To
include this effect, this study proposes that a third intermediate term be added to equation
(9.1), to account for economic losses that may result from this outcome. With this term, the
equation becomes:
E LT | IM E LT | NC R, IM P NC R | IM
(9.2)
E LT | NC D P NC D | IM E LT | C P C | IM
P NC R | IM P R | NC , IM P NC | IM (9.3)
Similarly, the probability that the building will not collapse but that it will be
demolished given that it has been subjected to earthquakes with a ground motion intensity
IM=im can be computed as:
P NC D | IM P D | NC , IM P NC | IM (9.4)
Since the repair and demolition events are mutually exclusive events, given that no
collapse has occurred and collapse and non-collapse are also mutually exclusive events,
then:
P R | NC , IM 1 P D | NC , IM (9.5)
P NC | IM 1 P C | IM (9.6)
Previous studies (Aslani and Miranda 2005, Mitrani-Rieser 2007) have used a
component-based methodology to calculate E[LT | NC ∩ R, IM]. The damage and
corresponding loss for every component in the building is first calculated, and then summed
up using the following equation:
N
E LT NC , IM a j E L j NC , IM (9.8)
j 1
where E[Lj | NC,IM] is the expected normalized loss in the jth component given that global
collapse has not occurred at the intensity level IM, aj is the cost of a new jth component,
and Lj is the normalized loss in the jth component defined as the cost of repair or cost to
replace the component normalized by aj.
A method to simplify the calculation of this term using a story-based approach was
presented in Chapter 3. This approach relies on assumptions about the building’s cost
distribution to calculate loss at each story instead of at every component. If the repair costs
are normalized in the same manner show in equation (9.8), only the value of the story needs
to be specified, rather than the values and quantities of each component. Further,
relationships that relate structural response directly to loss can be developed, such that the
intermediate step of estimating component damage become unnecessary. This approach is
used in this study and the reader is referred to Chapter 3 of this dissertation for further
details of the methodology.
In Equation (9.7) E[LT | C] corresponds to cost of removing the collapse structure
from the site plus the replacement cost of the building. Similarly, E[LT | NC ∩ D] is equal
to the cost of demolishing the existing structure, plus cost of removing debris from the site
plus the replacement cost minus the cost of building components that may be salvageable
because the structure did not collapse.
As shown in Equation (9.7) all three terms are influenced by the probability of
collapse, P(C | IM). Previous studies (e.g., Krawinkler et al. 2005, Haselton and Deierlein
P D | NC , IM im GD|RIDR D | RIDR ridr , NC dP RIDR ridr | NC , IM im (9.9)
0
where, GD|RIDR(D | RIDR = ridr, NC) is the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the
probability that the structure will be demolished, given that the building has not collapsed
but that it has experienced a maximum residual drift is equal to ridr, when subjected to an
earthquake with intensity level, im, and P(RIDR > ridr | NC, IM=im) is the probability of
exceeding ridr given the that the building has not collapsed at the intensity, im. Note that
RIDR is the maximum residual drift in any story in the building. P(RIDR > ridr | NC,
IM=im) can be determined from the structural response simulation similarly to other types
of engineering demand parameters. In this study, GD|RIDR(D | RIDR = ridr, NC) was
assumed to be lognormally distributed. This probability may be interpreted as the
percentage of engineer that would recommend demolition of the building with increasing
levels of residual interstory drift. There is very little data available to obtain an accurate
estimate of the parameters for this probability distribution. For the purposes of this study,
GD|RIDR(D | RIDR = ridr, NC) was assumed to have a median of 1.5% and a lognormal
standard deviation of 0.30. These values were deemed reasonable using engineering
9.3 APPLICATIONS
9.3.1 Description of Buildings Studied
Each of the reinforced concrete frame structures of interest in this study was
modeled in OpenSees (PEER, 2006) using a two-dimensional, three-bay model of the
lateral resisting system and a leaning (P-Δ) column. The model does not incorporate
strength or stiffness from components designed to resist gravity loads. Beams and columns
were modeled with concentrated hinge (lumped plasticity) elements and employ a material
model developed by Ibarra et al. (2005). Haselton and Deierlein (2007) have shown that
the lumped plasticity modeling approach provides reasonable results (compared to fiber-
element models) at low levels of deformation and in addition, captures material
nonlinearities as the structure collapses.
The nonlinear simulation models of reinforced concrete frames were analyzed using
the incremental dynamic analysis technique. The selected ground motions records are from
large magnitude events and recorded at moderate fault-rupture distances on stiff soil or rock
sites (ATC, 2008). The collapse fragility, typically represented by cumulative probability
distribution, was adjusted to account for uncertainties in the structural modeling process and
the expected spectral shape of rare ground motions in California. As an example of the type
simulation data used, the collapse fragility and the EDP data for the ductile, 4-story building
considered in this study are shown in Figure 9.1 and Figure 9.2, respectively. Interested
readers are referred to (Haselton and Deierlein, 2007) for the remaining simulation results
of the example buildings used in this study and for more details on how the structural
simulation was conducted.
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
IM = Sa [g]
Figure 9.1: Probability of collapse for ductile 4-story reinforced concrete structure (Haselton and
Deierlein, 2007)
2 3 2
1 2 1
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0 1 2 0 0.02 0.04
E[EDP = IDR | IM=Sa] E[EDP = PFA | IM=Sa] E[EDP = RIDR | IM=Sa]
Figure 9.2: EDP data as a function of building height for ductile 4-story reinforced concrete
structure (Haselton and Deierlein, 2007)
9.3.2 Results
The economic loss results at the DBE normalized by the building replacement value
for all four structures considered in this study are summarized in Table 9.2. The normalized
values of each type of loss – non-collapse losses due to repair, non-collapse losses due to
demolition and collapse losses – are reported in columns (1) through (3). Each of the
Table 9.2 Summary table for expected economic loss results at design basis earthquake (DBE) as a
percentage of building replacement value
Expected Loss at design level EQ Disaggregation
Eq. (9.2) Eq. (9.2) Eq. (9.2) Eq. (9.2) Eq. (9.2) Eq. (9.2)
Building Total
Term 1 Term 2 Term 3 Term 1 Term 2 Term 3
(1) (2) (3) (4) (1) / (4) (2) / (4) (3) / (4)
4-story Ductile 25% 15% 3% 42% 58% 36% 6%
The first building analyzed in this study was a 4-story ductile, reinforced concrete
structure. Figure 9.3 shows the expected losses as a function of the intensity of ground
motion (measured here in terms of spectral acceleration at the fundamental period, Sa(T1)).
Economic losses here are normalized by the replacement value of the building. Losses
appear to rise very quickly as the earthquake intensity level increases. Structures in the US
are designed to a level of ground motion intensity typically referred to as the Design Basis
Earthquake (DBE), which is defined in Chapter 7. For this site, the DBE has a spectral
acceleration of 0.52g, and is identified on Figure 9.3. At this intensity level, the total
expected losses are approximately 59% of the mean replacement cost of the structure.
80%
60%
40%
20% Sa at DBE
0%
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
IM = Sa [g]
Figure 9.3 Normalized expected economic loss as a function of ground motion intensity.
60%
40%
20%
0%
Service DBE MCE
Sa = 0.31 Sa = 0.52 Sa = 0.78
Figure 9.4 Effect of considering loss due to demolition conditioned on non-collapse on normalized
expected economic losses for a 4-story building at three different levels of seismic intensity.
At the service-level earthquake, the effect of losses due to building demolition does
not have an influence on the overall normalized loss. On the other hand, the normalized
economic losses increase from 31% to 42% at the DBE. This represents a relative increase
of 35% (the relative increase is the difference between the two values of expected loss, with
and without considering losses due to demolition, divided by the expected loss with
considering losses due to demolition, multiplied by 100). At the MCE, the normalized
economic losses increase from 48% to 73% representing a relative increase of 52%. This
means that considering the losses due to demolition has a large influence on the overall loss
estimate, particularly for seismic events that have smaller ground motion intensities but
1.0
P(DM = Demolish | IM)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
IMIM = Sa
= Sa / Sa
/ Sa @10/50
DBE
Figure 9.5 Comparison of the probability of collapse with the probability of building being
demolished due to residual deformation as a function of ground motion intensity.
These results suggest that ignoring the financial consequences of excessive residual
drift can severely underestimate economic loss predictions. Previous loss estimation
methods that do not include these effects may be misleading, predicting better performance
than actually experienced. Performance can be underestimated by as much as 35% at the
DBE and 52% at the MCE as demonstrated by this case-study.
The results in Chapter 7 demonstrated that the effect of building height can have a
substantial influence on predicted economic losses. The effect of building height was also
investigated in this study by comparing the resulting economic losses of the 4-story
structure to the results of a 12-story structure. Figure 9.6 shows the loss results for the 12-
story building at the service-level earthquake, the DBE and the MCE. For each hazard
level, the total normalized economic losses are smaller than the losses of the 4-story
structure shown in Figure 9.4 (Note that the losses are smaller when normalized by the
replacement cost. The replacement costs and losses in the 12-story are larger in
magnitude.). This trend holds whether or not non-collapse losses due to demolition are
considered.
60%
40%
20%
0%
Service DBE MCE
Sa = 0.31 Sa = 0.52 Sa = 0.78
Figure 9.6 Effect of considering loss due to demolition conditioned on non-collapse on normalized
expected economic losses for a 12-story building at three different levels of seismic intensity.
Figure 9.6 also compares the losses with and without considering loss due
demolition, for each hazard level. Despite demonstrating lower total losses, the relative
increase in losses due to considering the effect of demolition losses is larger in the 12-story
structure than it is in the 4-story building. When demolition losses are considered at the
DBE, normalized losses are 45% greater than when the demolition losses are ignored. This
is larger than the 35% increase in normalized loss observed in the loss analysis of the 4-
story structure. This is also true for the MCE, where the relative increase due to demolition
losses is 63% for the 12-story building and only 52% for the 4-story building. This
suggests that large residual drifts may play a more significant role in estimating loss for
high-rise buildings, than it does for low-rise buildings.
The loss results in Figure 9.6 were disaggregated as described previously to
determine the value of contributions from each of the terms in equation (9.2). As was the
case for the 4-story building, demolition losses comprise the largest portion of the overall
loss at the MCE. At this level, losses due to demolition make up 51% of the overall loss.
These case-studies suggest that accounting for excessive residual drift in loss estimations is
important in both low-rise and high-rise structures. Although the proportion of demolition
losses relative to the overall loss is approximately the same in both cases, it was
E[L | IM] (a) NON-DUCTILE 4-STORY E[L | IM] (b) NON-DUCTILE 12-STORY
100% 100%
NC - Repair NC - Repair
NC - Demolish NC - Demolish
80% 80% Collapse
Collapse
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
Service DBE MCE Service DBE MCE
Sa = 0.31 Sa = 0.52 Sa = 0.78 Sa = 0.31 Sa = 0.52 Sa = 0.78
Figure 9.7 Loss results for non-ductile buildings studied (a) 4-story (b) 12-story
In addition to showing total losses, Figure 9.7(a) and Figure 9.7(b) also
disaggregates the loss of non-ductile buildings. Comparing these disaggregations with
those shown in Figure 9.4 and Figure 9.6, it can be determined that collapse plays a much
larger role in loss for the non-ductile buildings than it does for the ductile structures.
According to these figures, the contributions of demolition losses to the overall losses are
greatest at the DBE (unlike the ductile structures, where the demolition loss contributions
1.0 1.0
P(DM = Demolish | IM) (a) (b)
0.8 P(DM = Collapse | IM) 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
IMIM = Sa
= Sa / Sa
/ Sa @10/50
DBE IM IM
= Sa / Sa
= Sa @10/50
/ Sa DBE
(c) (d)
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
IMIM
= Sa / Sa
= Sa @10/50
/ Sa DBE IMIM
= Sa / Sa
= Sa @10/50
/ Sa DBE
Figure 9.8 Comparisons between the probability of collapse and the probability of demolition for
(a) a 4-story ductile structure (b) a 12-story ductile structure (c) a 4-story non-ductile structure and
(d) a 12 story non-ductile structure.
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
EDP = RIDR [% ] EDP = RIDR [% ]
Figure 9.9 Different distributions for probability of demolition given RIDR (a) Varying the median
(b) Varying the dispersion
The economic loss results at the DBE for different values of the median RIDR of
the cumulative probability distribution GD|RIDR(D | RIDR = ridr, NC) are displayed in
Figure 9.10(a). The plot shows that the total loss decreases as the median increases. This
decrease is larger at smaller values of the median than it is at larger values of the median
GD|RIDR(D | RIDR = ridr, NC). Note that as the median is increased and approaches very
large values, the performance is equivalent to the case where demolition losses are not
considered. In this figure, only the value of the repair losses and the demolition losses vary,
whereas the collapse losses remain constant. This is because the statistical parameters of
GD|RIDR(D | RIDR = ridr, NC) only affect the probability of demolition.
A similar, but much weaker trend is observed when using expected annual loss
(EAL) as a metric for performance. Expected annual loss is the average economic loss due
to seismic ground motions that will be incurred each year. It is obtained by integrating
expected losses as a function of ground motion intensity with the site’s seismic hazard
curve (Figure 7.1). Figure 9.10(b) shows the EAL results for the different median values
for the probability of building demolition given RIDR. As was observed in Figure 9.10(a),
the values of loss decrease as the median of GD|RIDR(D | RIDR = ridr, NC) increases. The
decrease in EAL between RIDRs of 0.5% to 2.0%, however, is much smaller than it is for
the expected losses at the DBE. Median values of greater than 2.0% do not produce
differences that are as substantial.
40%
1%
20%
0% 0%
0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.2% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 10.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.2% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 10.0%
40%
1%
20%
0% 0%
0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.2% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Figure 9.10 Results for sensitivity analysis of probability of demolition given RIDR for 4-story
ductile reinforced concrete moment frame office building.
Changing the dispersion of GD|RIDR(D | RIDR = ridr, NC) does not seem to have a
significant effect on both the expected economic losses for the DBE and EAL, as shown in
Figure 9.10(c) and (d), respectively. The expected loss at the DBE does show some
increase as the dispersion increases, but the difference is very small. There is virtually no
change in EAL as the dispersion increases.
Based on this sensitivity analysis, it appears that loss estimations are much more
sensitive to changes in the median than the dispersion of the probability of demolition given
RIDR. Although the estimates of the statistical parameters of the probability of demolition
given RIDR used in this study (median = 1.5%, dispersion = 0.3) seem reasonable based on
the criteria described previously, it is recommended that further study be conducted to
obtain data that will validate the use of these values in this loss estimation method to
eliminate any subjectivity used to estimate these parameters.
It is recognized that the resulting economic loss estimates computed in this study
and the conclusions on the influence of residual deformations on seismic-induced economic
loss are dependent on how the values of the RIDR are computed. The simulation results
used in this study were taken from previous research that was conducted on the
performance of reinforced concrete moment frame structures. Although the simulation
techniques were state-of-the-art, the focus of these studies was on collapse performance and
not on capturing residual deformations. It is the opinion of the authors that the RIDR
values computed may be large and possibly overestimated. This is primarily because of the
type of hysteretic model used by Haselton and Deierlein (2007) and Liel and Deierlein
(2008) in their nonlinear simulations. These simulations implemented a material model
developed by Ibarra et al. (2005), which unloads using a stiffness equal to the initial
stiffness. For reinforced concrete members, this may lead to overestimations in residual
displacements as was demonstrated by Ruiz-Garcia and Miranda (2006).
Ruiz-Garcia and Miranda (2006) determined that hysteretic models that capture
stiffness-degradation will compute smaller residual displacements than models that do not
equate the unloading stiffness to the initial stiffness. The decrease in residual displacement
is primarily because stiffness-degradation models have a tendency to unload toward the
origin when subjected to cyclic loading. Systems that do not degrade have larger unloading
stiffness, which resists displacements that would restore the structural member being
modeled back to its original position. Although degrading stiffness systems are more
representative of actual behavior observed by reinforced concrete elements, the model
developed by Ibarra et al. (2005) does not model behavior. This suggests that residual
displacements computed by Haselton and Deierlein (2007) and Liel and Deierlein (2008)
may be overestimated.
If the residual displacements used in this study are overestimated, then the
economic loss results that consider replacement costs due to building demolition will also
be overestimated and may explain why the losses are fairly large. Although the actual
economic loss results may not be as high as those reported in this study, it is still important
to note that considering residual displacements will increase seismic-induced monetary
losses and that this increase may be large.
10.1 SUMMARY
Performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) has taken tremendous strides in
the past decade. The collaborative effort of PEER researchers has resulted in a methodology
that can quantify structural performance in terms that stakeholders can more readily
understand and use in making decisions regarding seismic risk (e.g. deaths, dollars and
downtime). Unfortunately, evaluating seismic-induced economic loss is no easy task. In
particular, it requires a significant amount of information and is computationally intensive.
Successful adoption of PBEE by practicing engineers may hinge on providing a version of
PEER’s framework that is easier to use and more efficient than previously presented.
This study has presented a new story-based loss estimation methodology, a simplified
implementation of PEER’s previous approaches, as a more efficient way of quantifying
structural seismic performance (Chapter 3). Relationships between structural response and
monetary loss in the form of EDP-DV functions were developed based on the assumptions
on the building’s cost distribution and structural system. Engineers using this method do not
need to conduct the intermediate step of estimating damage, because it has been already
been computed based on assumptions on the building’s cost distribution. Fragility functions
for structural components were developed from experimental data to supplement the
creation of EDP-DV functions (Chapter 4). Generic fragility functions for non-structural
components were generated from empirical data, making it possible to account for the entire
inventory of components in a story when generating EDP-DV functions, yielding more
complete predictions of non-collapse losses (Chapter 5).
These simplifications were implemented into a user-friendly computer tool that can
be used to estimate economic losses as a metric of structural performance (Chapter 6). The
Fragility functions were generated from both experimental and empirical data to
supplement the formulation of story EDP-DV functions. Experimental data from testing of
The methods and tools developed in this study were used to predict losses for a set
of typical reinforced concrete moment frame office buildings. The group of 30 modern
code-conforming buildings was designed with ductile detailing (e.g. well confined concrete)
by a previous investigation (Haselton and Deierlein, 2007). A brief comparison was made
to a second set of 25 buildings that were designed with non-ductile concrete moment
frames, representative of structures designed in California prior to 1967 (Liel and Deierlein,
2008). The findings and conclusions from these analyses are as follows:
For the ductile structures, expected losses results at the DBE were found
to be a significant percentage of the replacement value, ranging from 13%
to 54%. When a hazard curve from a site in L.A. was considered, the
EAL computed for this set of buildings varied from 0.4% to 3.3%. Both
metrics indicate that the economic losses can be very large considering
that they conform to current US codes. The wide range of results also
demonstrates that US building codes do not provide a consistent level of
monetary loss performance.
Of the code-conforming structural parameters considered in this study,
building height was found to have the largest influence on expected losses
To incorporate this new building damage state into PEER’s loss estimation
framework it is necessary to calculate the probability of building demolition given that it
has not collapsed at a ground motion intensity IM=im. It is proposed that this random
variable be computed as a function of two other probabilities: 1) the probability of
demolition given the building has not collapsed and has experienced a certain peak residual
interstory drift, RIDR = ridr, and 2) the probability of experiencing various levels of RIDR
with increasing levels of seismic intensity IM=im. The first probability accounts for the
variability associated with the amount of permanent deformation that will trigger building
demolition. The second probability accounts for the record-to-record variability of residual
drifts which can be determined from structural analysis.
The effect of including this source of economic loss into PEER’s loss estimation
framework was examined, and it was observed that a substantial increase in loss was
experienced in the ductile reinforced concrete moment resisting frame office buildings
analyzed in this study. The 4-story building analyzed in this part of the investigation
showed a relative increase of 35% in expected loss at the design-basis earthquake (DBE)
and an increase of 45% was observed in the 12-story building when compare to equivalent
buildings that do not consider these losses.
The effect of incorporating these types of monetary losses has a greater influence in
taller buildings because permanent lateral deformations are more likely to be higher in these
structures. The higher gravity loads in the lower stories of tall buildings tend to localize
most of the lateral deformation in these lower stories because of P-delta effects, whereas the
deformation is more evenly spread throughout the height of the building for short structures.
There are several areas in building-specific loss estimation that require further
development. These areas include the following:
The economic losses presented in this investigation and other recent building-
specific losses estimation studies are typically larger than those computed using
regional loss estimation methods. Validation studies using data collected from
previous and future earthquakes can be used to identify parts of the
methodology, if any, that may not capture the computation of earthquake-
induced economic losses well.
The concepts and framework presented in this dissertation for the computation
of economic losses can be extended to the calculation of fatalities and facility
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American Society of Civil Engineers.
ASCE (2007). Seismic Rehabilitation of Existing Buildings (ASCE/SEI 41-06). Reston, VA: American
Society of Civil Engineers.
Aslani, H., and Miranda, E. (2004). “Component-Level and System-Level Sensitivity Study for
Earthquake Loss Estimation.” 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (Paper No.
1070). Vancouver, B.C., Canada.
Aslani, H. and Miranda, E. (2005). Probabilistic Earthquake Loss Estimation and Loss Disaggregation in
Buildings, Report No. 157. Stanford, CA: John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center,
Stanford University.
ATC (1985). Earthquake Damage Evaluation Data for California, ATC-13 Report. Redwood City, CA:
Applied Technology Council.
ATC (2000). Database on the Performance of Structures Near Strong-Motion Recordings: 1994
Northridge, California, Earthquake, ATC-38 Report. Redwood City, CA.: Applied Technology
Council.
ATC (2007). Guidelines for Seismic Performance Assessment of Buildings, ATC-58 Report 35% Draft.
Redwood City, CA: Applied Technology Council.
ATC (2008). Recommended Methodology for Quantification of Building System Performance and
Response Parameters, ATC-63 (90% Draft). Redwood City, CA: Applied Technology Council.
Badillo-Almaraz, H., Whittaker, A.S., and Reinhorn, A.M. (2007). “Seismic Fragility of Suspended
Ceiling Systems.” Earthquake Spectra, 23(1), 21-40.
This appendix contains the assumed building and story cost distributions used to
compute the generic story EDP-DV functions. The cost distributions grouped by three
different categories of building height (low-rise, mid-rise and high rise structures). For
each category of building height, there are three types of story distributions based on floor
type (1st floor, typical floor and top floor). The building cost distributions are normalized
by the replacement value of the building and the story cost distributions are normalized by
the replacement value of the story.
Building
Distribution (% of Story Distribution (% of story value)
Component Group
total bldg value)
Total1 1st Floor Typical Floor Top Floor
A. SUBSTRUCTURE
4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B. SHELL
B10 Superstructure 11.5% 12.3% 12.7% 10.5%
B20 Exterior Enclosure 16.6% 19.3% 16.6% 17.1%
B30 Roofing 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3%
C. INTERIORS
22.7% 26.4% 27.3% 14.0%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying 8.3% 8.0% 8.3% 10.2%
D20 Plumbing 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2%
D30 HVAC 14.5% 13.6% 14.1% 19.2%
D40 Fire Protection 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
D50 Electrical 17.4% 17.7% 18.3% 18.8%
100% 100% 100% 100%
Notes: 1) Cost distribution of total bldg value take from RS Means Square Foot Costs (2007)
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes IDR Partitions 4.2%
Interior Doors IDR Partitions 2.1%
Fittings IDR Generic-Drift 1.1%
Stair Construction IDR Generic-Drift 2.9%
26.4%
Floor Finishes - 60% carpet IDR DS3 Partition-like 6.2%
30% vinyl composite tile Rugged 3.1%
10% ceramic tile Rugged 1.0%
Ceiling Finishes PFA Ceilings 5.8%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts IDR Generic-Drift 0.8%
8.0%
PFA Generic-Accl 7.2%
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures IDR DS3 Partition-like 0.9%
2.0%
Rugged 1.1%
D30 HVAC
Terminal & Package Units PFA Generic-Accl 10.2%
13.6%
IDR Generic-Drift 3.4%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment –
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers PFA Generic-Accl 0.5%
0.6%
Standpipes IDR Generic-Drift 0.2%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution PFA Generic-Accl 1.6%
Lighting & Branch Wiring Rugged 1.1%
Lighting & Branch Wiring PFA Generic-Accl 5.3%
Lighting & Branch Wiring IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.6% 17.7%
Communications & Security Rugged 1.0%
Communications & Security PFA Generic-Accl 1.5%
Communications & Security IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.6%
= 100% 100%
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes IDR Partitions 5.7%
Interior Doors IDR Partitions 2.5%
Fittings IDR Generic-Drift 0.8%
Stair Construction IDR Generic-Drift 2.5%
27.3%
Floor Finishes - 60% carpet IDR DS3 Partition-like 5.6%
30% vinyl composite tile Rugged 2.8%
10% ceramic tile Rugged 0.9%
Ceiling Finishes PFA Ceilings 6.5%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts IDR Generic-Drift 0.8%
8.3%
PFA Generic-Accl 7.5%
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures IDR DS3 Partition-like 0.9%
2.1%
Rugged 1.2%
D30 HVAC
Terminal & Package Units PFA Generic-Accl 10.6%
14.1%
IDR Generic-Drift 3.5%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment –
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers PFA Generic-Accl 0.5%
0.6%
Standpipes IDR Generic-Drift 0.2%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution PFA Generic-Accl 1.6%
Lighting & Branch Wiring Rugged 1.1%
Lighting & Branch Wiring PFA Generic-Accl 5.4%
Lighting & Branch Wiring IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.8% 18.3%
Communications & Security Rugged 1.1%
Communications & Security PFA Generic-Accl 1.6%
Communications & Security IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.7%
= 100% 100%
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes IDR Partitions 2.2%
Interior Doors IDR Partitions 1.1%
Fittings IDR Generic-Drift 0.6%
Stair Construction IDR Generic-Drift 1.5%
14.0%
Floor Finishes - 60% carpet IDR DS3 Partition-like 3.3%
30% vinyl composite tile Rugged 1.6%
10% ceramic tile Rugged 0.5%
Ceiling Finishes PFA Ceilings 3.1%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts IDR Generic-Drift 1.0%
10.2%
PFA Generic-Accl 9.2%
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures IDR DS3 Partition-like 1.0%
2.2%
Rugged 1.2%
D30 HVAC
Terminal & Package Units PFA Generic-Accl 14.4%
19.2%
IDR Generic-Drift 4.8%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment PFA Generic-Accl 0.0%
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers PFA Generic-Accl 0.5%
0.6%
Standpipes IDR Generic-Drift 0.2%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution PFA Generic-Accl 1.7%
Lighting & Branch Wiring Rugged 1.2%
Lighting & Branch Wiring PFA Generic-Accl 5.6%
Lighting & Branch Wiring IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.9% 18.8%
Communications & Security Rugged 1.1%
Communications & Security PFA Generic-Accl 1.6%
Communications & Security IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.7%
= 100% 100%
Building
Distribution (% of Story Distribution (% of story value)
Component Group
total bldg value)
Total1 1st Floor Typical Floor Top Floor
A. SUBSTRUCTURE
2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B. SHELL
B10 Superstructure 17.6% 17.9% 18.5% 15.4%
B20 Exterior Enclosure 16.3% 18.8% 16.2% 16.9%
B30 Roofing 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5%
C. INTERIORS
19.4% 20.7% 21.4% 11.1%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying 9.5% 9.1% 9.4% 11.8%
D20 Plumbing 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
D30 HVAC 13.0% 12.3% 12.7% 17.6%
D40 Fire Protection 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8%
D50 Electrical 16.8% 16.6% 17.2% 17.9%
100% 100% 100% 100%
Notes: 1) Cost distribution of total bldg value take from RS Means Square Foot Costs (2007)
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes IDR Partitions 3.3%
Interior Doors IDR Partitions 1.7%
Fittings IDR Generic-Drift 0.8%
Stair Construction IDR Generic-Drift 2.3%
20.7%
Floor Finishes - 60% carpet IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.8%
30% vinyl composite tile Rugged 2.4%
10% ceramic tile Rugged 0.8%
Ceiling Finishes PFA Ceilings 4.6%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts IDR Generic-Drift 0.9%
9.1%
PFA Generic-Accl 8.2%
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures IDR DS3 Partition-like 0.8%
1.9%
Rugged 1.1%
D30 HVAC
Terminal & Package Units PFA Generic-Accl 9.2%
12.3%
IDR Generic-Drift 3.1%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment –
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers PFA Generic-Accl 1.9%
2.6%
Standpipes IDR Generic-Drift 0.6%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution PFA Generic-Accl 1.5%
Lighting & Branch Wiring Rugged 1.0%
Lighting & Branch Wiring PFA Generic-Accl 5.0%
Lighting & Branch Wiring IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.3% 16.6%
Communications & Security Rugged 1.0%
Communications & Security PFA Generic-Accl 1.4%
Communications & Security IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.4%
= 100% 100%
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes IDR Partitions 4.5%
Interior Doors IDR Partitions 1.9%
Fittings IDR Generic-Drift 0.6%
Stair Construction IDR Generic-Drift 1.9%
21.4%
Floor Finishes - 60% carpet IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.4%
30% vinyl composite tile Rugged 2.2%
10% ceramic tile Rugged 0.7%
Ceiling Finishes PFA Ceilings 5.1%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts IDR Generic-Drift 0.9%
9.4%
PFA Generic-Accl 8.5%
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures IDR DS3 Partition-like 0.9%
1.9%
Rugged 1.1%
D30 HVAC
Terminal & Package Units PFA Generic-Accl 9.5%
12.7%
IDR Generic-Drift 3.2%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment –
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers PFA Generic-Accl 2.0%
2.7%
Standpipes IDR Generic-Drift 0.7%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution PFA Generic-Accl 1.5%
Lighting & Branch Wiring Rugged 1.1%
Lighting & Branch Wiring PFA Generic-Accl 5.1%
Lighting & Branch Wiring IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.5% 17.2%
Communications & Security Rugged 1.0%
Communications & Security PFA Generic-Accl 1.5%
Communications & Security IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.5%
= 100% 100%
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes IDR Partitions 1.8%
Interior Doors IDR Partitions 0.9%
Fittings IDR Generic-Drift 0.4%
Stair Construction IDR Generic-Drift 1.2%
11.1%
Floor Finishes - 60% carpet IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.6%
30% vinyl composite tile Rugged 1.3%
10% ceramic tile Rugged 0.4%
Ceiling Finishes PFA Ceilings 2.4%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts IDR Generic-Drift 1.2%
11.8%
PFA Generic-Accl 10.6%
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures IDR DS3 Partition-like 0.9%
2.0%
Rugged 1.1%
D30 HVAC
Terminal & Package Units PFA Generic-Accl 13.2%
17.6%
IDR Generic-Drift 4.4%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment PFA Generic-Accl 0.0%
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers PFA Generic-Accl 2.1%
2.8%
Standpipes IDR Generic-Drift 0.7%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution PFA Generic-Accl 1.6%
Lighting & Branch Wiring Rugged 1.1%
Lighting & Branch Wiring PFA Generic-Accl 5.3%
Lighting & Branch Wiring IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.7% 17.9%
Communications & Security Rugged 1.0%
Communications & Security PFA Generic-Accl 1.6%
Communications & Security IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.6%
= 100% 100%
Building
Distribution (% of Story Distribution (% of story value)
Component Group
total bldg value)
Total1 1st Floor Typical Floor Top Floor
A. SUBSTRUCTURE
1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
B. SHELL
B10 Superstructure 23.0% 23.1% 23.8% 19.8%
B20 Exterior Enclosure 14.3% 16.6% 14.2% 14.9%
B30 Roofing 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5%
C. INTERIORS
17.1% 17.7% 18.2% 9.5%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 6.1%
D20 Plumbing 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4%
D30 HVAC 16.6% 15.9% 16.3% 22.7%
D40 Fire Protection 4.2% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4%
D50 Electrical 16.8% 16.6% 17.0% 17.8%
100% 100% 100% 100%
Notes: 1) Cost distribution of total bldg value take from RS Means Square Foot Costs (2007)
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes IDR Partitions 2.8%
Interior Doors IDR Partitions 1.4%
Fittings IDR Generic-Drift 0.7%
Stair Construction IDR Generic-Drift 1.9%
17.7%
Floor Finishes - 60% carpet IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.1%
30% vinyl composite tile Rugged 2.1%
10% ceramic tile Rugged 0.7%
Ceiling Finishes PFA Ceilings 3.9%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts IDR Generic-Drift 0.5%
4.7%
PFA Generic-Accl 4.3%
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures IDR DS3 Partition-like 0.6%
1.3%
Rugged 0.7%
D30 HVAC
Terminal & Package Units PFA Generic-Accl 11.9%
15.9%
IDR Generic-Drift 4.0%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment –
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers PFA Generic-Accl 3.1%
4.1%
Standpipes IDR Generic-Drift 1.0%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution PFA Generic-Accl 1.5%
Lighting & Branch Wiring Rugged 1.0%
Lighting & Branch Wiring PFA Generic-Accl 4.9%
Lighting & Branch Wiring IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.3% 16.6%
Communications & Security Rugged 1.0%
Communications & Security PFA Generic-Accl 1.4%
Communications & Security IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.4%
= 100% 100%
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes IDR Partitions 3.8%
Interior Doors IDR Partitions 1.6%
Fittings IDR Generic-Drift 0.5%
Stair Construction IDR Generic-Drift 1.6%
18.2%
Floor Finishes - 60% carpet IDR DS3 Partition-like 3.7%
30% vinyl composite tile Rugged 1.9%
10% ceramic tile Rugged 0.6%
Ceiling Finishes PFA Ceilings 4.4%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts IDR Generic-Drift 0.5%
4.9%
PFA Generic-Accl 4.4%
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures IDR DS3 Partition-like 0.6%
1.3%
Rugged 0.7%
D30 HVAC
Terminal & Package Units PFA Generic-Accl 12.3%
16.3%
IDR Generic-Drift 4.1%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment –
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers PFA Generic-Accl 3.2%
4.3%
Standpipes IDR Generic-Drift 1.1%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution PFA Generic-Accl 1.5%
Lighting & Branch Wiring Rugged 1.1%
Lighting & Branch Wiring PFA Generic-Accl 5.1%
Lighting & Branch Wiring IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.4% 17.0%
Communications & Security Rugged 1.0%
Communications & Security PFA Generic-Accl 1.5%
Communications & Security IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.5%
= 100% 100%
C. INTERIORS
Partitions with finishes IDR Partitions 1.5%
Interior Doors IDR Partitions 0.8%
Fittings IDR Generic-Drift 0.4%
Stair Construction IDR Generic-Drift 1.0%
9.5%
Floor Finishes - 60% carpet IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.2%
30% vinyl composite tile Rugged 1.1%
10% ceramic tile Rugged 0.4%
Ceiling Finishes PFA Ceilings 2.1%
D. SERVICES
D10 Conveying
Elevators & Lifts IDR Generic-Drift 0.6%
6.1%
PFA Generic-Accl 5.5%
D20 Plumbing
Plumbing Fixtures IDR DS3 Partition-like 0.6%
1.4%
Rugged 0.8%
D30 HVAC
Terminal & Package Units PFA Generic-Accl 17.0%
22.7%
IDR Generic-Drift 5.7%
Other HVAC Sys. & Equipment PFA Generic-Accl 0.0%
D40 Fire Protection
Sprinklers PFA Generic-Accl 3.3%
4.4%
Standpipes IDR Generic-Drift 1.1%
D50 Electrical
Electrical Service/Distribution PFA Generic-Accl 1.6%
Lighting & Branch Wiring Rugged 1.1%
Lighting & Branch Wiring PFA Generic-Accl 5.3%
Lighting & Branch Wiring IDR DS3 Partition-like 4.6% 17.8%
Communications & Security Rugged 1.0%
Communications & Security PFA Generic-Accl 1.5%
Communications & Security IDR DS3 Partition-like 2.6%
= 100% 100%
This appendix contains the graphs and data points for the generic story EDP-DV
functions developed in Chapter 3. There are 36 functions for reinforced concrete moment-
resisting frame office buildings. On each sheet, a set of three functions for drift-sensitive
structural components, drift-sensitive nonstructural components and acceleration-sensitive
nonstructural components are reported. The sets of functions are categorized by the type of
frame four different building properties: the building height (low-rise, mid-rise or high-
rise), the type of material behavior (ductile or non-ductile reinforced concrete), the type of
structural frame (perimeter or space) and the location/type of floor (1st floor, typical floor or
top floor). The values of economic loss shown here are normalized by the replacement
value of the story. Interstory drift ratio (IDR) is unit-less and peak floor acceleration is
expressed in terms of the acceleration of gravity (g).
This appendix contains the graphs and data points for the subcontractor EDP-DV
functions developed in Chapter 8 to compute the variability of economic loss of the
example 4-story ductile reinforced concrete moment-resisting perimeter frame office
building. Each set of functions are grouped by floor type (1st floor, typical floor and top
floor) and seismic sensitivity (drift-sensitive and acceleration sensitive). Each set of
functions are presented in 2 pages: the first page plots the functions and the second page
reports the data points of each function. The values of economic loss shown here are
normalized by the replacement value of the story. Interstory drift ratio (IDR) is unit-less
and peak floor acceleration is expressed in terms of the acceleration of gravity (g).
Occupancy: Office
E( L | IDR )
0.25 Concrete
Metals
0.20
Doors,
Windows,
0.15 Glass
Finishes
0.10
Mechanical
0.05 Electrical
0.00
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
IDR
E( L | IDR )
0.25 Concrete
Metals
0.20
Doors,
Windows,
0.15 Glass
Finishes
0.10
Mechanical
0.05 Electrical
0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
IDR
Occupancy: Office
E( L | IDR )
0.25 Concrete
Metals
0.20
Doors,
Windows,
0.15 Glass
Finishes
0.10
Mechanical
0.05 Electrical
0.00
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
IDR
E( L | IDR )
0.25 Concrete
Metals
0.20
Doors,
Windows,
0.15 Glass
Finishes
0.10
Mechanical
0.05 Electrical
0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
IDR
Occupancy: Office
E( L | IDR )
0.25 Concrete
Metals
0.20
Doors,
Windows,
0.15 Glass
Finishes
0.10
Mechanical
0.05 Electrical
0.00
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
IDR
E( L | IDR )
0.25 Concrete
Metals
0.20
Doors,
Windows,
0.15 Glass
Finishes
0.10
Mechanical
0.05 Electrical
0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
IDR
Occupancy: Office
E( L | PFA )
0.25
Finishes
Mechanical
0.20
Electrical
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
PFA [g]
E( L | PFA )
0.25
Finishes
Mechanical
0.20
Electrical
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
PFA [g]
Occupancy: Office
E( L | PFA )
0.25
Finishes
Mechanical
0.20
Electrical
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
PFA [g]
E( L | PFA )
0.25
Finishes
Mechanical
0.20
Electrical
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
PFA [g]
Occupancy: Office
E( L | PFA )
0.25
Finishes
Mechanical
0.20
Electrical
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
PFA [g]
E( L | PFA )
0.25
Finishes
Mechanical
0.20
Electrical
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
PFA [g]