PROCEEDINGS OF ICETECT 2011
Reliability Well-Being Assessment Of PV-Wind
Hybrid System Using Monte Carlo Simulation
L. Nanda Kishore, M.Tech student,
Department of Electrical Engineering,
Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee,
Roorkee, India.
Abstract—The utilization of renewable energy has gained
momentum nowadays due to the rapid decrease in fossil fuel
resources and increased environmental concerns. But the amount
of power available from these natural resources will vary
continuously from place to place and time to time depending on
its geographical locations, terrains, altitude, climatic conditions.
So the energy supplied from these sources will be fluctuating in
nature. Hybrid energy systems are excellent options for supplying
small isolated power systems (SIPS) and remote villages where
conventional grid cannot reach due to technical and economical
reasons. This paper will discuss various components of hybrid
energy systems involving photo voltaic (PV) and wind energy
conversion systems (WECS) and their modeling for reliability
studies. The reliability of supply is the major concern in the
hybrid energy systems. Several methods for reliability evaluation
have been reported in this paper. The traditional methods for
evaluating reliability evaluation like deterministic and
probabilistic techniques have their own disadvantages. An
improved method known as system well-being analysis which is
the combination of deterministic and probabilistic techniques has
been applied for evaluation of reliability of the system applying
Monte Carlo simulation technique. The reliability and cost
implications of PV and wind energy utilization in hybrid energy
systems designed for Indian conditions are discussed in this
context. The effect of different energy types, effect of changes in
peak load and renewable capacity on system health and fuel
savings are also studied in this paper.
Keywords— renewable, fuel savings, solar, wind, loss of
health, excess renewable energy.
I. INTRODUCTION
The use of renewable energy sources is gaining interest all
over the world as the fossil fuel reserves are depleting and
because of their advantages such as unlimited availability, free
of cost and non-polluting nature. The increased environmental
concerns after Kyoto Protocol and Copenhagen summit have
also led the development of renewable technologies.
Government of India has also initiated National Action Plan
on Climate Change (NAPCC) to combat the challenges posed
by fossil fuels such as global warming, green house effect and
melting of Himalayan glaciers [1].
In India, there are about 95000 un-electrified villages and
nearly 24,500 of these villages cannot be electrified through
the extension of conventional utility grid [2]. Most of these
villages have difficult accessibility and high terrain. This
increases the cost of delivery of power to these villages.
Renewable energy based isolated power system is a possible
option for the electrification of these villages. An isolated
978-1-4244-7926-9/11/$26.00 ©2011 IEEE
Dr. E. Fernandez, Assoc. Professor,
Department of Electrical Engineering,
Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee,
Roorkee, India.
power system generates power at the point of utilization and
hence reduces the transmission and distribution losses. The
effective use of renewable energy based isolated power
systems can lead to sustainable and environmental friendly
energy security in villages.
In early days, diesel generators were the main sources of
electricity in most of the isolated islands as the electricity
demand is constantly increasing in these isolated islands.
Providing oil for diesel generators involves buying, transport,
and storage costs. Hence, the installation of renewable energy
support systems has become a necessary issue. Among various
renewable energy systems, photovoltaic and wind energy are
believed to play an important role as clean electricity power
sources in meeting future electricity demands. But, as all the
renewable sources are intermittent in nature, there is a need for
backup system such as battery or a conventional generator to
supply power during unavailability of the renewable energy
source.
A hybrid energy system is an excellent solution for
electrification of remote rural areas where the grid extension is
difficult and uneconomical. Such system incorporates a
combination of one or several renewable energy sources such
as solar photovoltaic, wind energy, micro-hydro, fuel cells and
may be conventional generators for backup. The use of hybrid
energy system has various advantages such as improved
reliability, reduced emissions and pollutions, reduced cost and
more efficient use of power.
Even with the use of hybrid energy system, there is a
chance of loss of load due to outage of system components. So
reliability of the system has to be taken care of while
evaluating the hybrid system performance. Reliability
evaluation can be done either by deterministic and
probabilistic methods. Deterministic methods cannot
recognize the random behavior of the system. So they cannot
be directly applied to renewable energy systems [3].
Probabilistic methods will interpret a single numerical risk
index such as the loss of load expectation (LOLE). The lack of
system operating information contained in a single risk index
limits the use of these techniques. Hence probabilistic methods
have not been readily accepted in reliability evaluation of
small isolated power systems [3]. A new approach known as
system ‘well-being’ approach is implemented by combining
deterministic and probabilistic approaches for applying to
hybrid energy systems. Reliability evaluation of PV/Wind
hybrid energy system using well-being approach and Monte
Carlo Simulation (MCS) method is discussed in this paper.
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 II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Reliability evaluation of power systems involving
renewable energy sources was started in 1980s. Lauffenburger
et al. [4] extended standard reliability terminology and
formulae to include photovoltaic power systems. Pereira et al.
[5] gave a general framework for combining analytical models
and Monte Carlo simulation technique. Li and Billinton [6]
presented a new method based on system state transition
sampling approach which can be used to calculate an actual
frequency index without requiring an additional enumeration
procedure and the associated approximate assumptions.
Jonnavithula et al. [7] applied sequential Monte Carlo
simulation technique for the evaluation of distributions having
composite system indices.
Karki et al. [8] presented a new probabilistic method
designated as 'System Well-being Analysis', which
incorporates the accepted deterministic criteria in the
definition of 'Healthy', 'Marginal' and ‘Risk’ system states.
Billinton et al. [9] explained the utilization of Monte Carlo
simulation to evaluate system well-being indices and their
distributions and the significance of them on capacity reserve
evaluation. Karki et al. [10] presented an evaluation model and
applied it to analyze optimum generation expansion of small
isolated systems using PV and wind energy sources. Billinton
et al. [3] studied reliability and cost implications of PV and
Wind Energy utilization in small isolated power systems. A
Monte Carlo simulation approach has been utilized to
incorporate the numerous random variables and their
interactions. Miranda et al. [11] presented an application of
Monte Carlo chronological simulation to evaluate the reserve
requirements of generating systems, considering renewable
energy sources. Khatod et al. [12] developed an analytical
method for well-being assessment of small autonomous power
systems having solar and wind energy systems.
III. RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF HYBRID
ENERGY SYSTEMS
Reliability evaluation is a very important in the planning of
hybrid energy system for a particular site. It involves assessing
the potential of various renewable energy sources at that site
based on historical data such as solar radiation, ambient
temperature, wind speed etc.
A. Reliability Evaluation Methods
The reliability evaluation methods can be broadly
classified into two types namely deterministic and
probabilistic techniques [13]. Deterministic techniques
allocate fixed capacity outputs to the generating units and
cannot be directly applied to the continuously fluctuating
renewable energy sources. Probabilistic techniques provide
quantitative risk assessments which can be used for renewable
systems but they give single reliability index such as Loss of
Load Expectation (LOLE). This will not be sufficient for the
analysis of complete system behavior. So, a new technique
known as system well-being analysis is used combining both
deterministic and probabilistic techniques [3].
Probabilistic techniques can be further classified into two
types. They are analytical and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)
methods [13]. In analytical technique, the system is analyzed
based on mathematical models. Capacity Outage Probability
(COPT) table is constructed and the generation is compared
with load at each state of COPT and reliability indices are
obtained. The disadvantage of this method is that it will not
consider the actual behavior of the system. This can be
overcome by Monte Carlo Simulation through simulating the
system using random number generators and failure rates of
the system.
MCS can be classified into two types: Non-sequential and
sequential MCS [14]. In Non-sequential MCS, system states
are randomly sampled irrespective of event chronologies.
These methods are simple and easy but applicable only to
systems with exponentially distributed failure rates. In
Sequential MCS, chronological behavior of the system is
simulated by sampling sequences of system states for several
time periods. The sequential MCS approach can provide
accurate and additional information that the non-sequential
cannot, but requires higher computational effort and time.
System well-being analysis incorporates deterministic
technique into probabilistic framework to determine the
system healthy, marginal and risk states as shown in Fig 1 [8].
A system is said to be in the healthy state when it has
sufficient capacity reserve to meet a deterministic criterion
such as the loss of the largest unit. In the marginal state, the
system is not in any difficulty but does not have sufficient
margin to meet the specified deterministic criterion [8]. The
system load exceeds the available capacity in the risk state.
The probability of health, P(H), probability of margin, P(M)
and probability of risk P(R) are the probabilities of finding the
system in the healthy, marginal and at risk states respectively
[8]. The probability of risk is equivalent the conventional loss
of load probability (LOLP).
B. Evaluation Methodology Used
The reliability assessment of hybrid PV-wind system is
done in three steps as shown in Fig 2 [10]. In the first step,
required atmospheric data such as hourly solar radiation,
hourly ambient temperature and hourly wind speed are
collected from sources like weather monitoring stations,
meteorological department etc. In next step, hourly output
power available from each type of source is obtained from
respective power generation models and considering outage
schedules generated randomly using failure rates of respective
units [10]. In the final step, total available generation for all
hours is combined with hourly load data and well-being
indices are obtained.
C. Modeling of PV systems
The output from a PV system depends on the solar
radiation, ambient temperature values at the site of installation
and rating of PV system. The rating of a PV module is
expressed in peak-watt (Wp) and is equal to the maximum
power produced by a module under standard test conditions
(STC).
STC corresponds to a radiation level of 1 kW/m2 and a cell
temperature of 25°C. The manufacturers provide the
characteristics of PV module under STC by specifying ISC
(short-circuit current in A), VOC (open-circuit voltage in V),
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IMPP (current at maximum power point in A), VMPP (voltage at The power output from a PV array, containing total N
maximum power point in V), and NOT (noominal operating modules, can be directly calculated as
temperature of cell in °C). The current–voltaage characteristic
of a PV cell can be determined for a given raadiation level ‘s’ PPV = N * FF *V *I (4)
and ambient temperature TA using the followinng relations [12]: where PPV is a function of soolar radiation level ‘s’ for
calculating power output from a PV
V array and fill factor (FF)
N OT − 2 0 (1) depends on the material of PV mo odule, and is given by the
TC = T A + s
0 .8 following relation:

V M PP I MPP (5)
I = s [ I S C + K I ( T C − 2 5 )] (2) FF =
V O C I SC

V = V OC − K V TC (3) D. Modeling Of Wind Energy Sysstems

where TC represents cell temperature in °CC, I stands for PV
module short-circuit current in A, KI signifi fies short- circuit
current temperature coefficient in A/°C, V indicates open-
circuit voltage in V, and KV is open-circuit volltage temperature
coefficient in V/°C.
The power output from a Wind Turbine Generator (WTG)
depends on its rated power Prated, cut-in speed Vcut-in, rated
speed Vrated, and cut-out speed Vcuut-out. WTG are designed to
start generating at the cut-in wind speed, Vcut-in. Fig. 3 shows
that the power output increases non nlinearly as the wind speed
increases from Vcut-in to the rated wind
w speed Vrated. The rated
power, Prated, is produced when th he wind speed varies from
Vrated to the cut out wind speed Vcutt-out, at which the WTG will
be shut down for safety reason ns. The electrical power
generated hourly can be calculated d from the wind speed data
using the power curve of the WTG.
The mathematical function relatting the power output from
a WTG with the wind speed can be written as [12]:

⎧0 for 0 ≤ v ≤ Vcut − in and v ≥ Vcut − out

⎪ 3 (6)
PWTG = ⎨ ( av + bPrated ) for Vcut − in ≤ v ≤ Vrated
Fig.1. System well-being analysis state ddiagram ⎪P for Vrated ≤ v ≤ Vcut − out
⎩ rated

where ‘a’ and ‘b’ constants are functions

f of Vcut-in, Vrated,
and Prated and can be obtained by thee following relations:

Prated (7)
a= 3 3
V rated− V cut − in

3
V cut (8)
b= − in

V ra3 ted − V cu3 t − in

Fig.2. Reliability evaluation model of PV-w
wind system

E. Overall System Evaluation

The powers available from PV, WTG units are evaluated at
each hour of the year using the methods
m explained in above
sections. Monte Carlo Simulation n procedure is utilized to
simulate the operation of the system
m for number of years.
For reliability evaluation, the av
vailability of PV, WTG and
DG units also should be considered d. An outage history of each
unit can be generated by simulating g its failure and repair with
respect to time using (9) and (10 0), respectively [3], where
Fig.3. Power curve of a WTG
MTTF and MTTR are the mean times t to failure and repair,

65
respectively, of the unit assuming that failure rates of all units
are exponentially distributed and x1 and x2 are random
numbers .

Up Time = −MTTF *ln( x1 ) (9)

Down Time = −MTTR *ln( x2 ) (10)

From the outage history of units the chronological

variation of power outputs of PV, WTG and DG units will be
obtained. The wind system generation model also depends on
the load level due to the operating constraints applied to
maintain system stability.
The simulation algorithm first compares the system load
level with the PV sub-system output and dispatches all the
available PV energy in that interval. The remaining load is
then compared with WTG system output and load is supplied
from WTG. If the PV and WTG systems are not sufficient to
supply the load, DG system will be used to supply that extra
load. In this way, the useful capacity of the each system is
calculated for each hour.
The generation model is created by combining the powers
available from all the generating units, which is compared
with the hourly load and the accepted deterministic criterion to
identify the healthy, marginal and at risk states. Fig. 4 shows
the flowchart of the Monte Carlo simulation procedure for the
reliability evaluation of PV-wind hybrid energy system. The
simulation proceeds chronologically from one hour to the next
for repeated yearly samples until specified convergence
criteria are satisfied. The number of healthy states n(H), risk Fig.4. Flowchart for the reliability evaluation of PV-wind hybrid system
using MCS
states n(R) and their durations t(H) and t(R) are recorded for
the entire simulation. The system health and risk indices are N * y e a rly h o u rs

evaluated using (11)–(13) [3]. ∑ PGi

EES by PV = i =1 (14)
n(H )
N
∑ t ( H )i N * y e a r ly h o u rs
P (H ) = i =1

N * Y e a r in h rs
(11)
∑ W Gi
E E S b y W in d = i =1 (15)
N

LO H E = [1 − P ( H )] * Y ear in hrs (12) IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

A. Test System Data
n (R )

∑ t( R )i The methodology explained above has been applied to the

LO LE = i=1 (13)
N generating units (with 5% FOR, MTTF 950 hours, MTTR 50
Where N is the total number of simulated years
P(H) is the probability of healthy state
LOHE is the loss of health expectation
LOLE is the loss of load expectation
The fuel energy saving due to renewable energy sources is
equal to the total energy supplied by them. If PGi and WGi are
the PV and wind power output in hour ‘i’, the expected
energy supplied (EES) by the PV and wind sub-systems can be
obtained using (14) and (15), respectively, when the
simulation is run for N sample years.
base system having two 20 kW and one 40kW diesel
hours). The hourly chronological load shape of the IEEE-RTS
[15] was used with a peak load of 30 kW. The system was
assumed to be located in rural outskirts of New Delhi. The
mean hourly atmospheric data of New Delhi such as solar
radiation, ambient temperature and wind speed are obtained
from the reference [16].
PV modules of 80 Wp (with 4% FOR, MTTF 1920h,
MTTR 80h) are used in the system. The specifications of PV
modules are given in Appendix-A. WTG units of 10 kW rating
(with 4% FOR, MTTF 1920h, MTTR 80h, cut-in, rated, and
cut-out wind speeds of 3,10 and 21 m/sec, respectively) are
used in the system.

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 1
A renewable energy source can give maximum fuel
savings when all of its generated energy can be utilized. The
0.99 energy available from these sources may not always be
consumed to the full extent due to lower instantaneous
Healthy State Probability

0.98
demand. Fig. 8 compares the excess energy wasted for the four
0.97 cases of energy mixes. It can be observed that most of the
energy generated has been consumed except for the lower
0.96
loads in the case when only PV arrays are added to the system.
0.95
The excess energy evaluation provides a valuable indicator
when deciding the types of energy sources that can be added
0.94 and the expected benefits. The excess renewable energy is less
Base System WTG added PV+WTG added PV added DG added in the case when PV and WTG units are added because of
diversified nature of solar and wind resources.
Fig.5. System health for different energy types
10
D. Effect Of Variation Of Renewable Penetration
As the capacity of renewable energy generation is
9
increases, the system health improves, hence loss of health
decreases. Fig. 9 illustrates the decrease in system loss of
Fuel savings (kL/yr)

health with increase in renewable energy penetration.

7
The increase in system reliability decrease with further
6 additions and at some point the curves in Fig. 9 will saturate. It
implies that adding only renewable energy to meet load
5
growth may not be able to provide the desired reliability.
4
Base System WTG added PV+WTG added PV added DG added
Fig. 10 illustrates the increase in fuel savings with
increasing renewable energy penetration. The benefit of fuel
Fig.6. Fuel savings for different energy types savings decreases with further penetration. So it is necessary
to decide the optimum capacity of renewable system for
B. Effect Of Variation Of Energy Type Added
getting more benefits.
A total capacity of 20 kW was added to the base system in
four different cases: one diesel unit, 10 PV arrays (built by 1

assembling 5 groups of 5 series modules), 2 WTG, and a mix 0.9

of 5 PV arrays and WTG units. Fig. 5 compares the system

healthy state probability for the four cases with the base case. 0.8
Healthy State Probability

It can be observed that the system health increases for each 0.7

capacity addition case but not to the same degree. Fig. 5 also 0.6
Base System
WTG added
shows that conventional energy sources like diesel generators PV+WTG added
PV added

are much superior to renewable energy sources in terms of 0.5 DG added

system reliability. The benefit of using PV or WTG is a 0.4

significant reduction in the system operating costs due to fuel

savings. Fig. 6 shows the comparison of the fuel savings for
0.3

the four cases considering a heat-rate of 3.3 kWh/liter. In the 0.2

20 30 40 50 60 70 80

considered site, solar radiation is more reliable than wind peak load(KW)

speed availability. So the system health and fuel savings are Fig.7. System health with load growth
more when PV is added to the base system. This may vary for
site to site depending on resource availability data. 1200

C. Effect Of Variation Of Peak Load

Excess renewable energy(kWh/year)

1000 WTG added

As the system peak load increases, the system reliability

PV+WTG added
PV added

degrade i.e. healthy state probability will decrease. Fig. 7 800

compares the variation in reliability with increase in peak load

for the base system and four cases of capacity addition. It can 600

be observed that diesel units are less affected by peak load 400
compared to renewable sources. The relative reliability benefit
from conventional unit addition is higher at higher loads. The 200
variation in the system load was modeled by increasing the
peak load while maintaining the same load shape. Changes in 0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
load factor or in the shape of the load curve will also affect the peak load(KW)

system reliability and cost indices.

Fig.8. Excess renewable energy with load growth

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 renewable energy sources will reduce environment pollution
500
which is a major concern nowadays. Maximum benefit in
utilizing renewable energy can be achieved by injecting an
appropriate mix of energy sources in order to generate a power
PV added
450 WTG added

output profile that closely matches the load profile.

LOHE(h/yr)

400

350
REFERENCES
300
[1] National Action Plan on Climate Change, Govt. Of India, Nov. 2009
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200
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Fig.9. LOHE variation with increasing penetration
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15
10
5
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
capacity added(KW)
Fig.10. Fuel savings with increasing penetration
V. CONCLUSIONS
Reliability well-being analysis is done for hybrid PV-wind
system using Monte Carlo Simulation. The study carried on
will be useful for the planning of a system installation. As the
capacity of renewable energy sources increases, the cost
benefits will increase. After certain level the increase in
benefits will not be relatively more. So it is important to
determine optimum size of the units. The capacities of
generating units which will give more benefits can be
determined using the method.
Monte Carlo simulation approach has been utilized to
include a number of random variables and their interactions.
The model discussed here can be used to conduct system cost
and reliability studies in order to examine the actual benefits
that can be obtained. The system health indices, fuel savings,
and their variations have been obtained for a hybrid PV-wind
energy system.
The Conventional energy sources are superior to
renewable energy sources in terms of system reliability but
there will be benefit of reduced operating costs with renewable
sources because of their cost-free nature. Moreover, use of
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