IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER APPARATUS AND SYSTEMS, VOL. PAS-89, NO.

7, SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1970 1455

Estimating the Switching-Surge Performance of

Transmission Lines
ANDREW R. HILEMAN, FELLOW, IEEE, PIERRE R. LEBLANC, MEMBER, IEEE, AND
GORDON W. BROWN, MEMBER, IEEE

Abstract-From the results of an ANACOM study to investigate XI=35% X1.15%

BKR.
the frequency function of the occurrence of a switching surge, a rr-A 125 mi LINE
simplified method to estimate the switching-surge flashover prob- -Q30
30;

ability of a transmission line is developed and presented in a series SLG FAULT

of curves. 00 lri LINE
BASE: 1000kV, 4000 MVA
LINE CONSTANTS
INTRODUCTION f.62.0 Ric 0.12 n/mi Ro 0.25fAni
LL 1.27 mHAli
- Lo 3.34 mAnWi
AT 550 kV, the switching-surge design of transmission lines CCl =0.0233PF/mi COs0.0151EpF/rNi
consisted of the selection of a tower strike distance and Fig. 1. Simplified diagram of 1100-kV transmission circuit used in
insulator string length whose withstand voltage is equal to ANACOM study.
the maximum switching-surge voltage that can appear on the
line. The withstand voltage was defined as the critical flashover
(CFO) voltage minus three standard deviations Of. It was
recognized by many investigators that this design method, II
lt =o.7ms

although offering the advantage of simplicity, was not the best at, PHASE
method to employ. Rather, it was noted that switching-surge 1t2
line design should be based on a probability of switching-surge
flashover or, preferably, the line insulation design should be t2-4
based on the probability of line outage-a combination of light-
t3
ning and switching-surge flashover probabilities [1]. 7AP

Previous estimates of UHV transmission line design have
employed the selection criterion as discussed previously [2], [3].
However, the importance of the use of probability methods in
switching-surge design is accentuated at UHV. It is believed
that the present switching-surge flashover probability for 550-kV
lines is extremely low. If this assumption is shown to be correct
by operating records, then increases in the design probability of
flashover could be made.
Investigations into the estimates of switching-surge flashover
probabilities have been performed by many noted investigators
[4]-[7]. However, a need exists for a simple, accurate method
[8].
This paper presents a method to estimate the probability of
switching-surge flashovers on transmission lines. However,
any simplified method requires two obvious assumptions: 1)
the frequency of occurrence of switching-surge voltages, and 2)
the probability of flashover of tower insulation as a function of
voltage. Although the switching-impulse flashover probability
has been shown to approximate a cumulative Gaussian distri-
bution to at least 4or below the CFO voltage [9], the frequency
function of the occurrence of a switching surge is not known with
a similar degree of accuracy.
In addition, it has been common practice to assume that the
Paper 70 TP 38-PWR, recommended and approved by the Trans-
mission and Distribution Committee of the IEEE Power Group for
presentation at the IEEE Winter Power Meeting, New York, N. Y.,
January 2.5-30, 1970. Manuscript submitted September 16, 1969;
made available for printing December 3, 1969.
A. R. Hilemen and P. R. Leblanc are with the Westinghouse
Electric Corporation, East Pittsburgh, Pa. 15112.
G. W. Brown is with the University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh,
Pa. 15213.
-/ts >-1& PHASE 3
t'o
Fig. 2. Random selection of closing times for aiming point to;
At are Gaussian deviates about to.
distribution of occurrence is only composed of the absolute case
peak voltages; i.e., the maximum surge voltage on any of three
phases irrespective of its polarity. That is, the surge voltages
appearing on the other two phases were assumed to be sufficiently
low in magnitude that they would not significantly contribute to
the total line flashover probability. It has also been tacitly
assumed that surge voltages appearing later or earlier in time,
but on the same phase as the absolute peak voltage, did not
significantly alter the total line flashover probability, either.
Therefore, a miniature system study was performed to in-
vestigate the probability distribution and the validity of the
above assumptions. The results of this study were then used
to produce sets of curves from which estimates of the switching-
surge flashover probability can be obtained.
MINIATURE SYSTEM STUDY
To investigate the frequency of occurrence of switching-surge
voltages, a 125-mile 1100-kV line was set up on the ANACOM
as shown in Fig. 1. A single line-to-ground fault was placed at the
end of the opened line, resulting in a trapped charge voltage of
i 1.0 pu on the unfaulted phases when the breakers were opened.
The breaker was then reclosed onto the line with the fault re-
moved. The 1-pu voltage reference was chosen as the peak line-
to-ground steady-state voltage on the line side of the transformer
with the line connected but unloaded. Under this condition
1456 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER APPARATUS AND SYSTEMS, SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1970

the voltage at the end of the line was 1.035 pu. With the line
disconnected the voltage on the line side of the transformer
was 0.90 pu. ~-3.0
Two cases were studied: 1) a circuit breaker with no resistor 2.8
inserted in the closing stroke, and 2) a circuit breaker with a w

single 450-ohm resistor inserted in the closing stroke. Opening w 2.6 4 6

AIMAXIMUM
10 1 - 4
resistors in the breaker were not used. The closing times of the 24 ~~~~~~PEAKS
. SiMULTANEOUS at =mu
-

. Ms
first breaker contact were assumed to be normally distributed >t'
cr
2.2
CLOSING
't 00 Ms 't
about uniformly random aiming points to over a 16.67-ms in- zo
terval, as shown in Fig. 2, where At,, /t2, and At3 are Gaussian
deviations from the aiming point for each phase. For the case cao
where a 450-ohm resistor was used, the second breaker contact 1.8
was assumed to close 10 ms after the first contact. No prestrike
of the breaker contacts was assumed.
6 4' i2' i4'6/
1.0

Breakers with No-Insertion Resistors

Since resulting overvoltages may exceed 3.0 pu with this AIMING POINT-ms

configuration, a large numbei of random cases would be required

Maximum absolute peak voltage as a function of aiming
to obtain an accurate distribution over the entire range of Fig. 3.point (o-7 = 0.7 ins) and simultaneous closing (ot = 0).
overvoltages. However, since only the absolute peak voltage for
each case was initially required, a digital readout voltmeter
was used to simplify the task of recording values. Breaker pre-
strike was ignored both because of the difficulty in determining
the breaker voltages during closing and because of the large
number of cases that would be used.
Rather than select breaker closing times at random, a system-
atic method of selection was used to cover the range of breaker
closings. Aiming points were taken from -0.5 to 16.0 ms, at
E
0.5-ms intervals. Actual closings were allowed to vary 42at 'Li
from the aiming point. With at = 0.7 ms, and a step size of 0.5 0
z
4c
ms, this resulted in deviations of 1.5, 4±1.0, 40.5, and 40.0
ms the aiming point for each phase. Thus, for each aiming point -

there are 343 combinations of closing times for the three phases.
J

Since there are 33 different aiming points, the total number of

cases required is 11 319. However, because of duplicate closing
times for more than one aiming point, the number of different
cases is reduced to 4407. The absolute peak voltage was recorded 1.5
to the nearest 0.05 pu at three points on the line: 41.7, 83.3, and
125 miles from the sending end. OA CLOSING 2.0 ms a

To obtain the frequency of occurrence distribution of absolute

peaks, the probability of each combination of closing times Fig. 4. Topographical view of absolute peak voltage, 2 ms.
must be considered. The probability P of occurrence of a voltage
resulting from selection of an aiming point to and closing times
Atl, At2, At3 relative to the aiming point is
P(to,Atl,At2,At3) = P(to)P(Atl)P(At2)P(At3) (1)
where to, Atl, At2, and At3 are assumed to be statistically inde-
pendent. For this case, P(to) is equal to 0.0333 since there are 33
equally likely aiming points.
The distribution for each aiming point resulted in maximum
absolute peak voltages as a function of aiming point as shown in
Fig. 3. Also shown are the absolute peaks for simultaneous
breaker closing, which is equivalent to a o° of zero. This in-
dicates the regions of breaker closing where significantly high
overvoltages occur. A portion of the peak region is illustrated
topographically in Fig. 4, holding the closing time of phase A,
the faulted phase, constant at 2.0 ms and allowing the closings of
the other two phases to vary between i 1.5 ms. If the closing on
phase A were then allowed to vary, the peak areas shown would 16 lS 2.0 Z2 2.4 26 2.8
be closed surfaces with roughly ellipsoidal shapes. ABSOWTE PEAK VOLTAGE,PU
The resulting histogram for the entire range of aiming points
is shown for the receiving end of the line in Fig. 5, with its Fig. 5. Histogram of absolute peak voltages for receiving end of
line with no-resistor breaker, and estimate of actual frequency
estimated distribution superimposed. The cumulative prob- function.
HILEMAN et al.: ESTIMATING SWITCHING-SURGE PERFORMANCE

ao,p, percent
Maximum voltage
TABLE I
SUMMARY OF RESULTS-NO-INSERTION RESISTOR

Per-unit line length, l/L

Mean, A
Standard deviation, 0o0

Upper truncation point,

number of oTO's above,
1/3
1.920
0.200
10.4
2.75
4.15
2/3
2.100
0.215
10.2
2.95
3.95
1
2.325
0.250
10.8
3.30
3.90
en
0
>

a,.

4
t>

, 28-
0
co
ef
34

3.2

r%.

tA
_ ,~ ~ I.
+
T~~~~~~~~~~~~
:1-1
ILI .I.I. I.L
I _I
I~~~~~I I'
1457

43 _I I
1.2 1.6
1.4 Is 2.0 2.2 2.4
NEXT HIGHEST PEAK OF SAME POLARITY ON PEAK PHASE,PU VOLTS
(a)

<3.4 _-1'

0 32 --- 4 -__ - -

0~

I-.
4.
,'1B

1.6 EXT 2P
2.0 Z4 L T VO L a

NEXT HIIGHEST PH1ASE PEAK OF SAME POLARITY,PU VOLTS

(b)
Fig. 7. Scatter diagrams for high end of no-resistor voltage distribu-
tion. (a) Absolute case peak voltage versus second highest peak
voltage of same polarity on same phase. (b) Absolute case peak
voltage versus second highest phase peak of same polarity.
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY. PER CENT

Fig. 6. Cumulative probability of occurrence for three points on line

with no-resistor breaker and Gaussian fit at high end. - 53
999999.
99.999
4 ACTUAL
ability of occurrence is shown for the three points on the line in 99.99
Fig. 6, and it will be noted that the high-probability end of the
distribution can be closely approximated by a Gaussian curve > ..

:1
99.9
99s
with means and standard deviation as shown, where l/L is the CO 99.-
IOOCASES SES
per-unit line length as measured from the sending end. The 50 CASES, / 5 CASES
results are summarized in Table I.
I-
2 Q
> 95
98-
-
I/7 '
/I .
It can be seen that the mean and the standard deviation are
C-

Cl) i 90 -
fairly linear with per-unit distance l/L; that oo/IL ranges between ,, 80
10 and 11 percent; and that the upper truncation, the point Ir 70

at which the maximum voltage occurs, is at approximately 4.Ouo v-

60

50
above the mean throughout the length of line considered. 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
ABSOLUTE PEAK OVERVOLTAGE
2.8 3.0 3.2 34

The validity of using only the absolute case peak voltage is

based on the assumption that only this peak will be significant
in the calculation of flashover probability. Therefore, oscillo-
grams of cases with peak voltages of 2.7 pu or greater were
obtained and examined to determine the significance of
1) the second highest peak voltage of the same polarity as the
absolute peak voltage, which occurs on the same phase as does
the absolute peak voltage;
2) the second highest peak voltage of the same polarity as the
absolute peak voltage, which occurs on one of the other two
phases.
The results, given in Fig. 7 as scatter diagrams, show that
1) the second highest peak voltage of the same polarity and
on the same phase as the absolute peak voltage never exceeded
2.2 pu, or 0.5ao below the mean;
2) the second highest peak voltage of the same polarity never
exceeded 2.7 pu, or 1.5ao above the mean.
As shown in Appendix I, ignoring these values does not
seriously affect line flashover probabilities.
Fig. 8. Comparison of cumulative frequency of occurrence for 50,
100, and 200 random cases with actual cumulative probability
curve.
A point of interest, which can be estimated from this study,
is how many randomly selected combinations of closing times
are required to obtain a good fit at the tail end of the distribution.
Two sets of 50 cases and one set each of 100 and 200 cases were
randomly generated on the digital computer and the absolute
peak voltages at the receiving end were determined from the
4407 cases run on the ANACOM. The upper half of the cumulative
probability curves obtained from these four sets of cases are
shown in Fig. 8, with the actual probability curve shown for
comparison. Fifty cases seemed totally inadequate for obtaining a
tail-end fit, but 100 cases fit quite well up to the 95-percent
probability level. On the other hand, the 200 random cases
had a good fit between 92 and 99 percent, corresponding to peak
voltage levels of 2.70 and 2.95 pu, respectively, and a maximum
1458 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER APPARATUS AND SYSTEMS, SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1970

z
Z 60
lr
a P.j . 0

4
y
c
0 CLe
_
_- _

1
1.4

U)
-- i
& r- I, . u
IL) L~ L4 l U
1.2 1.3 1.4 L5 1.6 1.7
-I -I
ABSOLUTE PEAK VOLTAGE, P U 0
CD AC - - -

4n

Fig. 9. Histogram of absolute peak voltages at receiving end for

200 random cases with single-step resistor breaker.
1.0 L2 L4 1.6 1.8 2.0
NEXT HIGHEST PEAK OF SAME POLARITY ON PEAK PASE PU VOLS

(a)

j)
b

1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 i.B 2.0

NEXT HIGHEST PHASE PEAK OF SAME POLARITY, P U VOLTS

(b)
Fig. 11. Scatter diagrams for single-step resistor cases. (a) Absolute
case peak voltage versus second highest peak voltage of same
polarity on same phase. (b) Absolute case peak voltage versus sec-
ond highest phase peak of same polarity.
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY, PER CENT

Fig. 10. Extreme value regression lines representing cumulative of 0.7 ms; actual closing times were permitted to vary 42at
probability of occurrence for four points on line (1/L = 0, 1/3,
2/3, 1) for single-step resistor breaker. from the aiming point;
3) a constant resistor insertion time of 10 ms was chosen.
A resistor value of 450 ohms was used, and prestrike was
TABLE II ignored for the reasons mentioned earlier. Absolute peaks were
SUMMARY OF RESULTS-SINGLE-STEP RESISTOR obtained in the same manner as the above no-resistor case, with
the exception that the sending-end absolute peaks were also
Per-unit line length, 1/L 0 1/3 2/3 1 recorded. The resulting histograms for the four points on the
Mode, u 1.17 1.23 1.29 1.33 line illustrate a marked skewness to the high end. The receiving-
Slope 0.072 0.083 0.086 0.091 end histogram is shown in Fig. 9. Since the normal curve will
pl/u,yercent 6.1
1.6
6.8 6.7
1.70
6.8
1.70 not fit this type of distribution, the application of the extreme
Maximum voltage 1.65
Upper truncation 5.8 5.1 4.8 4.1 value function was examined. This is a cumulative probability
points, number of B's function of the form
above mode
P(y) = e-e-Y (2)
where y is a reduced variate defined by
value of 3.05 pu. Therefore, it appears that at least 200 random
cases should be used to obtain a reasonable tail-end fit for a Y=
(x -
u) (3)
distribution with the range of values of 1.2 to 3.3 pu. The number
of cases required will decrease with a decreased range of possible
values. where x is the true variable, per-unit voltage, u the mode, and ,3
the slope on extreme probability paper.
Breakers with Single-Step Insertion Resistor These two quantities can be related to the mean and standard
One method for limiting switching-surge overvoltage is by the deviation of the distribution as follows:
insertion of a resistor for a short period of time (8-10 ms), before / = u + 7(3
the main breaker contacts are closed. Two hundred cases were
generated for this study as follows: -'
1) aiming points for resistor contact were uniform random 0,0= -
(4)
numbers between 0 and 16.66 ms;
2) closing times of the resistor contacts are random normal where -y is Euler's constant, equal to 0.57722. Fig. 10 shows
deviates about this aiming point with a standard deviation the application of extreme value theory to the distribution of
HILEMAN et al.: ESTIMATING SWITCHING-SURGE PERFORMANCE
absolute peaks at the four points on the transmission line, and
the summarized results appear in Table II.
Again, with the exception of the sending end, the mode and
slope are fairly linear with distance l/L, and the per-unitized
slope 13/u is nearly constant at 6.8 percent. However, there
is a drop in the upper truncation points at the receiving end,
mainly because of the high frequency of the maximum value.
It is suspected, however, that the actual maximum may be at
1.8 pu, which would result in a truncation at 5.01.
As in the no-resistor cases, the validity for using only the
absolute case peaks is demonstrated in the scatter diagrams in
Fig. 11, indicating that
1) the second highest peak voltage of the same polarity and
on the same phase as the absolute peak voltage never exceeded
1.4 pu, or 0.771 above the mode;
2) the next highest phase peak of the same polarity never
exceeded 1.5 pu, or 1.8713 above the mode.
Again, as shown in Appendix I, these values may be ignored.
SUMMARY OF MINIATURE SYSTEM STUDY RESULTS
From the miniature system study, the following conclusions
for the specific system studied were derived.
1) The probability distribution of the occurrence of a switching-
surge voltage was either a Gaussian distribution or an extreme
value distribution.
2) The point at which the maximum voltage occurred, defined
as the truncation point, was 4fof above the mean for the normal
distribution and 51 above the mode for the extreme value
distribution.
3) The per-unitized standard deviation co/y for the normal
distribution and 13/u for the extreme value distribution were
approximately constant along the line.
4) The mean g of the normal distribution and the mode u
of the extreme value distribution at measuring points along the
line vary approximately linearly with l/L. It can be shown that
the assumption of a linear variation of , with l/L necessitates
the assumption of a linear variation of voltage along the line.
In the cases studied M5/,iA is approximately 0.70 for the normal
distribution and u,/u, is approximately 0.90 for the extreme
value distribution. The assumption of linearity of the maximum
voltage in the latter case is questionable since at l/L = 2/3
the voltage is equal to that at l/L = 1.0. However, as stated pre-
viously, it is suspected that the actual maximum voltage at
l/L = 1.0 is greater than 1.7 pu and that the rounding of all
measurements to the closest 0.05 pu contributed to this problem.
5) Surge voltages other than the absolute case peak voltage
may be neglected.
Therefore, for purposes of estimating the probability of line
flashover caused by switching surges, the following assumptions
are made:
1) probability of occurrence of switching surges may have two
distributions: Gaussian or extreme value;
2) the truncation point is,u + 4o-o and u + 51;
3) uo/y or 13/u is constant along the line;
4) the mean IA and mode u vary linearly along the line;
5) surge voltage other than the absolute case peaks can be
ignored;
6) the absolute case peaks may be equally of positive or
negative polarity;
7) the single tower probability of flashover is a cumulative
Gaussian function, with mean, CFO, and standard deviation
I.f
1459
VOLTAGE
Fig. 12. Line flashover probability (shaded area).
PROBABILITY OF SWITCHING-SURGE FLASHOVER
Theory and Calculations
Assuming that the largest positive voltage peak per switching
operation is, as indicated above, the significant surge, the
probability of flashover of a line may be written
Pr,= [ -kPk)
( f(V) dv,
flashovers per switching operation (5)
where Pk is the probability of flashover at the kth tower for a
surge of voltage magnitude v at the kth tower and f(V) is the
frequency distribution of the occurrence of voltage magnitudes.
The factor 1/2 reflects the fact that the switching-surge strength
of tower insulation for negative polarity greatly exceeds that for
positive polarity and therefore only positive polarity switching
surges need be considered.
The above probability may be visualized by referring to Fig
12. The shaded area is the probability of line flashover. It should
be noted that Fig. 12 is not to scale.
Estimating Curves
The results of this study are presented in Figs. 13-18, in
which the probability of line flashover per switching operation
is shown as a function of ,/CFO (or u/CFO) with oa-/CFO,
ao/,u (or 13/u), n (the number of towers), and Ms/MUT (or uS/uT) as
parameters. For estimating purposes, linear interpolation be-
tween values presented gives sufficiently accurate results for
other assumed values of the parameters. However, the curve
for n = 1000 lies approximately midway between the curve for
n = 500 and n = 2000.
Where it is within the range of probability values shown on
the curves, a dot on the curve indicates the design criterion
previously used at 550 kV; i.e., the maximum switching-surge
voltage is equal to CFO - 3Tf. In terms of these curves, this
occurs at the point where,u + 4f0o = CFO -3 of for the Gaussian
distribution and at u + 51 = CFO - 3o-f for the extreme value
distribution. As noted, this method of design produces a change-
able probability of surge flashover dependent on the assumed
parameters. Also the values of probability are below 10-3 for
practical design parameters-less than 1 flashover per 1000
breaker operations.
These curves can be used in two ways. First, if a new design is
contemplated and a miniature system study is performed, values
of A (or u), ao (or 1), and M,s/,M (or us/uT) are known. Entering
the curve at a desired flashover probability gives a M/CFO (or
u/CFO) from which the CFO can be obtained. The tower
1460 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER APPARATUS AND SYSTEMS, SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1970

z
0 z
4

z
U lr
L

a:

I
I-
4
4
A
a:
0

w
a:

ot

(a) -i (a)

U.
J

1-
am
co

S
z

w
a.
>

a:
tD

Di
0.
:
a

U/LCFO /L / CFO
(b) (b)
Fig. 13. Probability of switching-surge flashover for Gaussian Fig. 14. Probability of switching-surge flashover for Gaussian
distribution of switching-surge voltages. distribution of switching-surge voltages.
HILEMAN et al.: ESTIMATING SWITCHING-SURGE PERFORMANCE 1461

o 2t / // / 0 2

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0- 4t,
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CFO

04 _4- -I IF 0 C_F
I I I' - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~N.500
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2-

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,U/CFO /L//CFO
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4; i

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07080 0.A0

Fig. 15. Probability of switching-surge flashover for Gaussian Fig. 16. Probability of switching-surge flashover for extreme value
distribution of switching-surge voltages, distribution of switchin-surge voltages.
1462 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER APPARATUS AND SYSTEMS, SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1970

2
/~~~~~~~~~~~~
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o ,/ I 0
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0.5 ~0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 07 OS

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(a) (a)

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-- N 2000~
Z 2 /Z 2/
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a: 4 --- 4---
er 0/,-/~~5% ccI
w
I.j~~~~ ,
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0~~~~~~~~ 6

< 6-~~1

0: It~
II
0.4- 0.060. . . .
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1FO1-.L/CFO50
(b) (b)~~ -- -20

distrbutin ofswithingsurg volages ditrbuioFoOsithig-ure olags

HILEMAN et al.: ESTIMATING SWITCHING-SURGE PERFORMANCE
insulation dimensions can be obtained from laboratory test
data such as shown in [3]. Alternatively, for an existing tower
design the probability of flashover can be found.
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
Several items in this paper require further discussion, but
chief among these is the observation that the results of a minia-
ture system study on a specific system were used to establish the
assumptions and parameters of the estimating method. Criticism
of the miniature system study is justified in that it did not en-
compass various line lengths, sources, fault locations, etc., and
did not include the prestrike characteristics of breakers. For
example, additional studies may reveal distributions other
than the Gaussian or the extreme value are more representative.
It should also be noted that the value of o, was fixed at 0.7 ms
and the procedure used only permits deviation around the aiming
point of 42o-t. Increasing this range may have produced a
distribution different from that shown in Fig. 5. It is hoped that
the parameters presented have sufficient variation that the es-
timating method will be useful in future studies.
The authors employed a "brute force" method of attack in an
attempt to determine an exact distribution of occurrence for the
no-insertion-resistor case. Then a 200-case random sampling
method was used for the single-resistor case. However, the
"brute force" method suffers from the exhaustive time required,
whereas the limited random sample method does not produce the
exact distribution and may vary depending upon the random
numbers used. Since only the tail of the distribution is of im-
portance, alternate methods should be considered. For example, a
short search at various aiming points could produce a curve
such as that of Fig. 3. This could be followed by a topological
search at these aiming points such as illustrated in Fig. 4.
From these figures, the distribution could be accurately esti-
mated. It was recently noted that H. Glavitsch of CIGRE Work-
ing Group 33.02 independently proposed a similar method.
It presently appears that a large magnitude of effort has been
and is being devoted to the determination of tower insulation
flashover characteristics, whereas the effort devoted to the
determination of the probability distribution of occurrence and
its variables has been at a low level. It is hoped that other
investigators will perform studies to adequately determine this
distribution and its parameters. Field studies would also help to
determine the probability distribution.
Using the curves of Figs. 13-18 gives an estimate of the prob-
ability of switching-surge flashover per breaker operation.
However, the primary design criterion is outage rate, which
is a function of both the lightning and switching-surge flashover
probabilities. If, for example, the lightning flashover rate is 1
per year for a 100-mile line and the switching-surge flashover
probability when reclosing after a lightning flashover is 1 X 10-2
per switching operation, then the outage probability for this
case is 1 X 10-2 or 1 in 100 years for a 100-mile line. Considering
UHV transmission design, it appears that the lightning flash-
over rate may decrease, and therefore a higher switching-surge
flashover rate could be permitted to achieve the same outage
rate.
The curves of Figs. 13-18 indicate that the switching-surge
flashover rates using the design criterion of maximum switching-
surge equals CFO -3f are extremely low. Therefore, if this
observation is verified by operating experience at 550 kV,
consideration should be given to using a design probability of
switching-surge flashover in the range of 1 X 10-2 or per 100
breaker operations. This could decrease the required tower
1463
insulation dimensions significantly. For example, assuming a
Gaussian distribution of switching-surge voltages, a o0o4 of
10 percent and a u of 1.5 pu would give a maximum voltage of
2.1 pu at u + 4o-o. Using the previous design rules would result
in a CFO of 2.39 pu for a af/CFO of 4 percent. Using Fig. 14(a)
for a probability of 1 X 10-2, the resulting ,/CFO is 0.755 for
n = 500. The CFO should therefore be set at 1.99 pu. Assuming a
linear relation between the CFO and tower strike distance, a
16.7-percent decrease in insulation distance would be indicated.
At UHV transmission, control of the maximum switching-
surge voltage to 1.5 pu or less has been proposed. As the maxi-
mum per-unit over-voltage is decreased, ai (or u) will decrease
and from Figs. 13-18, assuming constant probability, aO/lq
(or p3/u) will increase. Therefore, the required CFO voltage will
decrease, as would be expected. However, this decrease in CFO
voltage as determined from these curves should be compared
with the decrease in required CFO voltage if it is assumed that
the CFO voltage decreases in a direct proportion to the per-unit
overvoltage. Sample calculations, assuming that both CFO volt-
ages are equal at 2.0 pu for 1100-kV transmission showed that
the required CFO voltage using the probability method was
about 4 percent higher than the CFO voltage for the simple ratio
method when the maximum voltage decreased from 2.0 to 1.4 pu.
This is amplified to 7 percent when the strike distances are
compared as a result of the shape of the curve of CFO voltage
versus strike distance.
Also, it appears that as the maximum voltage is decreased the
ratio of uJdr (or u,/u,) increases. This factor would increase
the required CFO voltage. Sample calculations showed that the
required CFO voltage is increased by an additional 2 percent
over that calculated above. That is, considering the increase of
141,4 the decrease of ao4, and the decrease of u, the probability
method calculations indicated a CFO voltage about 6 percent
higher than that calculated using the simple ratio method. This
again is amplified to about 9 percent when the strike distances
are compared.
SUMMARY AND CONCLIJSIONS
1) The results of a miniature system study showed that the
frequency distribution of absolute case peak voltage approximates
either a Gaussian or an extreme value distribution.
2) Analysis of the above results indicated that for the system
studied, the voltages on the other two phases and the voltage
peaks (other than the absolute peak voltage) on the same phase
do not significantly contribute to the total line flashover prob-
ability.
3) From the results of the above study, parameters were
assumed for the frequency of occurrence of switching-surge
voltages and combined with the probability of flashover of
tower insulation to obtain curves that can be used to estimate
the probability of switching-surge flashover of a transmission
line.
4) "Brute force" and random sampling methods were used to
obtain the probability of occurrence frequency distribution.
Since only the tail of the distribution is important, other methods
are suggested to accurately obtain the distribution in this
probability area.
5) Maintaining a constant probability of switching-surge
flashover, decreasing the maximum switching-surge voltage
does not produce a proportional decrease in the required CFO
voltage or the tower strike distance.
6) Switching-surge design criterion used at 550 kV results in
probabilities of switching-surge flashover of less than 1 in 1000
1464

breaker operations. It is suggested that values of 1 in 100 years or

less should be considered, providing that operating experience
at 550 kV verifies the calculated performance.
7) Additional miniature system studies are required to sub-
stantiate and expand the results of this study.

APPENDIX I
SIGNIFICANCE OF SECONDARY VOLTAGE PEAKS
Only the absolute peak voltage, the highest voltage that
occurred on any of the three phases after the switching operation,
was considered in the calculation of line flashover probability.
Fig. 19 shows how the total probability is accumulated as the
deviation above the mean A or mode B increases toward the
maximum overvoltage at 4o0O or 5t. Various probability levels
were obtained by varying both the location of the CFO and the
value of its standard deviation (4-8 percent). In the case of the
no-resistor breaker, the highest secondary peak on the same
phase and of the same polarity as the absolute peak was at the
-0.5-ro level, and it is obvious from Fig. 19(a) that these may be
neglected. Regarding the next highest phase peak, only one of the
remaining two phases will have a peak of the same polarity
of significant value. Since this peak is at most equal to the
absolute peak, the total flashover probability will no more than
double when the effect of its probability is included. However,
for cases where the overall probability of flashover is very low
(i.e., 1 per 1000) and the standard deviation of the CFO is small
(4 percent), the assumption of using only absolute peaks results
in very little error.
For example, as stated earlier, the second highest phase peak
had a maximum of 2.7 pu, or 1.50o above the mean. Since
nothing is known about the distribution of these peaks, it is
assumed that for all absolute peaks less than 2.7 pu, the next
highest phase peak is of equal magnitude; for all absolute peaks
greater than 2.7 pu, let it be equal to 2.7 pu. Consider the case in
Fig. 19(a) with a probability of 1.8 X 10-3. The probability of
3
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER APPARATUS AND SYSTEMS, SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1970

z
w
U

w
a.

c
(0

Co um

ak:
> tu

Jo

LLI
>h
0\

(L
-J

LOX
cr:
LJ
o:
100

60
DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEAN,MULTIPLES OF°o

CU *-07

N.500

O--'wi-"Yv0

I.0 .0
(a)
f/CFO -O04
'f/CFO.0S/'

3D 4ID
_

P.L3xt5e
t

DEVIATION ABOVE THE MaX. MULTIPLES OFB

(b)
Fig. 19. Accumulation of line flashover probability P. (a) For no-
,resistor breaker case using Gaussian distribution. (b) For single-
step resistor breaker case using extreme value distribution.

APPENDIX II
PROBABILITY OF LINE FLASHOVER
0
A

line flashover accumulated up to the 1.5ao point is only 0.1
percent of the total or 1.8 X 10-6. This is so small in comparison
with the total that it may be ignored. The probability of occur-
rence for values greater than 1.5ao is 0.06681, and the probability
of flashover at 2.7 pu, determined from the CFO and o,a is 4.3 X
10-6. Assuming also that the 2.7-pu secondary peak is present
across the entire line, 500 towers, the contribution to the total
probability is
P = (500) (0.06681) (4.3 X 10-6) = 1.4 X 10-4.
The probability based on only absolute peaks was 1.8 X 10-3,
so there is a difference of more than an order of magnitude be-
tween the two. Therefore, based upon these very conservative
assumptions, the error would be no more than 10 percent. A
similar calculation was performed for a crf of 8 percent and a
flashover probability of 4.5 X 10-3 with the additional assump-
tion that the 2.7-pu secondary phase peak decreased linearly
across the line with 1.9 pu at the sending end. This resulted in a
INCLUDING ALL PEAK VOLTAGES
The significant parameters of a given surge that will affect
the probability that the surge will cause flashover are the
voltage magnitude, voltage polarity, and waveshape. For a given
tower structure, surge voltage, polarity, and waveshape, it can
be assumed with reasonable confidence [9] that the relation
between voltage magnitude and flashover probability is the
cumulative normal distribution, with parameters CFO and 07f.
Both of these parameters will be dependent on polarity and
waveshape. If it is assumed that one parameter w is sufficient to
describe waveshape, the probability of flashover of a given tower
structure can be expressed
P(V,w).
A surge voltage VI at tower 1 on a given line will yield prob-
abilities
P(V1,W1),P(V2,W2), ' * * 2 P(VkiWk)i * *P(Vn,wn) ...

75-percent increase in the original value of probability, not quite

double the original values, and again the assumptions are very at towers 1,2,* ,k,** ,n, respectively. This expresses the
conservative. fact that voltage and waveform can change. Given the variation
Regarding the one-resistor cases shown in Fig 19(b), the of voltage and waveshape with tower number (i.e., distance),
levels of 0.77 and 1.87,B for the two types of secondary peaks the probability of line flashover PLj for the jth surge becomes
considered will contribute very little if at all to the overall -n
flashover probability. This is primarily due to the skewness of the PLi = 1 - i [1 -
P(Vl,Wk)]. (6)
voltage frequency distribution, which requires a large separation k= 1
between the mode of this distribution and the CFO to obtain Unfortunately, the variation of waveshape is not known in
acceptable flashover probabilities. sufficient detail to make computation practical according to (6).
HILEMAN et al.: ESTIMATING SWITCHING-STJRGE PERFORMANCE
2i--] 1r I 4
0L
-2.
w
l-j
14
_yr
0 20 40
TIME-ms
Fig. 20. Typical oscillogram from ANACOM study; important voltage
peaks are shown.
Hence the approximation is made that the waveshape is constant
and flashover probability is dependent only on voltage. Then
n In a three-dimensional space, the area around the maximum over-
PL= 1-JjJ[1-P(Vk)]. (7)
k=1
Now any given switching operation will result in many surges
on each of three phases. A typical ANACOM result is shown in
Fig. 20. The important peaks have been numbered in the oscillo-
gram. There are quite obvious questions regarding the definition
of an "important" peak, and of the effect of previous peaks on
the probability of flashover, all of which are relevant, but
will require much more study. However, if the peaks indicated
are assumed to be the important ones, and if they result in
independent flashover probabilities, then the overall probability
of line flashover becomes
M prestrike.
PL =1 H (1 -PL)) (8)
where the numbering system encompasses all "important"
surges on all phases and M is the number of the last significant
surge. The analysis of Appendix I, however, indicates that it is
adequate to consider only the highest peak.
REFERENCES
[1] G. E. Grosser and A. R. Hileman, "Ecomonic optimization of
transmission tower grounding and insulation," IEEE Trans.
Power Apparatus and Systems, vol. PAS-86, pp. 979-986,
August 1967.
[2] J. K. Dillard, A. R. Hileman, and J. P. McKinnon, "1100-kV
station and line insulation design," CIGRE, Paper 25-06,
June 1968.
[3] J. K. Dillard and A. R. Hileman, "UHV transmission tower
insulation tests," Paper 70 TP 78, presented at the IEEE
Winter Power Meeting, New York, N. Y., January 25-30,
1970.
[4] R. Gert, J. Jirku, S. Kriz, J. Kucera, and J. Vokalek, "Switch-
ing surges in EHV systems and their influence on the electrical
strength of external insulation," CIGRE, Rept. 406, June 1966.
[5] G. N. Aleksandrov, "Methods of choosing insulation for
distribution networks with the view to reliable operation in the
presence of internal voltage surges," Energetika, no. 7, pp.
16-24, 1932.
[6] A. J. McElroy and J. H. Charkow, "Probabilistic aspects cf
transmission system switching-surge reliability," IEEE Trans.
Power Apparatus and Systems, vol. PAS-86, pp. 1012-1024,
August 1967.
1 465
[7] J. G. Anderson and R. L. Thompson, "The statistical computa-
tion of line performance using METIFOR," IEEE Trans. Power
Apparatus and Systems, vol. PAS-85, pp. 677-686, June 1966.
[8] J. D. M. Phelps, P. S. Pugh, and J. E. Beehler, "765-kV station
insulation coordination," IEEE Trans. Power Apparatus and
Systems, vol. PAS-88, pp. 1372-1382, September 1969.
[9] T. Suzuki, I. Kishijima, Y. Ohuch, and K. Anjo, "Parallel
muligap flashover probability," IEEE Trans. Power Ap-
paratus and Systems, vol. PAS-88, pp. 1814-1823, December
1969.
Discussion
H. Glavitsch (Brown Boveri AG, Baden, Switzerland): In this
paper the authors bring to light the relevant aspects of employing
probabilistic methods in the field of insulation coordination and they
are to be congratulated for their excellent work.
In their discussion of the results it is mentioned that there is a
need for more effective methods for the determination of distribution
functions, especially in the area of the highest switching overvoltages,
and reference is made to the work of CIGRE Working Group
33-02.
The method proposed there relies on the determination of the
magnitude of the switching overvoltage by the triple of electrical
closing instants (in degrees or milliseconds for the three phases).
voltage magnitudes can be represented as a cigar-shaped body with
several layers denoting surfaces of constant overvoltage magnitude.
In the determination of the electrical closing instants, random
number generators on a digital computer are used to take into
account the probabilistic behavior of the aiming point, the me-
chanical closing of the breaker contacts around the aiming point, and
the prestrike of the closing poles. This simulation of the breaker
operation yields the effects of various breaker parameters on the
distribution of the maximum overvoltage magnitudes, i.e., on a
limited portion of the distribution function that is of interest.
For a given line and power system, the determination of over-
voltages as a finction of the aforementioned three closing angles
has to be done only once, which is highly advantageous. The simula-
tion runs with this given system showed that the distribution at the
tail end, being of interest, is quite sensitive to the permanent dis-
placement of the mechanical closing instants, their dispersion, and
This kind of investigation is very valuable in the development of
breakers and of measures for the reduction of overvoltage mag-
nitudes. For system planning the presence of a great number of
breakers and various system configurations must be accounted for,
and therefore a composite distribution, as mentioned by other
discussers, will be appropriate. The consideration above will give
some guidance on the establishment of such a composite distribution
where the selected area of the highest overvoltage magnitudes will
be of main interest.
Manuscript received February 9, 1970.
A. Clerici and A. Colombo (Centro Elettrotecnico Sperimentale
Italiano [CESI], Milan, Italy): We would like to offer the follow-
ing comments on the paper.
1) Although further investigation may be needed to substantiate
the source of the authors' suggestions, we completely agree on the
importance of a better knowledge of the frequency function of
switching surges. The influence of the assumptions adopted in
simulating a breaker operation should be investigated in par-
ticular. For instance, the authors have assumed equal "aiming
points" for all three phases, which may be invalid when considering
an individual breaker installed on a particular line. It should also
Manuscript received February 3, 1970.
1466 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER APPARATUS AND SYSTEMS, SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1970

be taken into account that for UHV systems other overvoltage

(fault initiation and clearing) are to be considered as part of
the actual switching-surge frequency distribution. The great amount 0.95
of work necessary to determine such distribution functions with
reasonable reliability makes cooperation among specialists highly z0
C9x
desirable. .> DISTR'IBUTION
2) In connection with the above reliability considerations, Fig. 8 Xou-
Z 0.5SEVERITY __
seems to indicate that an estimate of the switching-surge distribu- A MOST SEVERE
tion based on 200 cases is more accurate than one based on 50 cases. n
8 MODERATELY SEVERE ___
080
However, the problem in both situations remains that of how to C LEAST SEVERE
mnake an extrapolation from a point, which is placed between 2 and
3 or above the 50-percent value, up to a point around 4, where the 0.01 0.1 1.0 10 20 40 60 80 90 99
distribution is likely to be truncated. Obviously under such condi- PERCENT OF SURGES EXCEEDING ORDINATE VALUES
tions large errors can always be introduced on the last part of the
curve, even when extrapolating a curve based on 200 cases. Nothing Fig. 21. Cumulative distributions of switching-surge voltage in per-
can assure that the estimate of the distribution will be conservative. unit maximum surge-Gaussian probability paper.
We think therefore that instead of increasing the number of
cases it is better to assess the accuracy of the evaluation by con-
sidering several random shorter series of cases. Furthermore, the
determination of the maximized overvoltage is of the greatest
importance in this respect.
3) We should like to learn why the authors have considered peaks
of the same polarity to assess the importance of the peaks subsequent
to the highest one. We would have included all polarity peaks. We
have checked' anyway that when preinsertion resistors are used the
increase of the insulation strength to keep the risk of failure at the
required level is of the order of 5 percent.
4) The influence of the overvoltage waveshape is often more
important (order of 10-percent) and should not be forgotten in
seeking a real improvement of the design criteria. A simplified
method is being developed by the discussers for the purpose, and
some examples of its application will appear in a paper at the next
CIGRE meeting. The consideration of the surge shape may imply
that a review of certain other conclusions is necessary. For instance,
if the absolute peak on one phase is 2 pu but its equivalent front
time is far from the critical, a critical surge of 1.7 pu on another
phase may have greater probability of determining the flashover. 0.9
V MAX.
C FO

Fig. 22. Probability of transmission line flashover as function of

N. Dag Reppen (Power Technologies, Inc., Schenectady, N. Y.):
This paper contains some very interesting information about the
statistics of switching surges. The authors have investigated two
switching situations and found that the surge distribution for one
case could be represented by a Gaussian distribution and the second
case could be represented by an extreme value distribution. They then
proceeded, in the second half of the paper, to display curves showing
the probability of flashover of switching operations for various
parameters of the two distribution types. This discusser feels that
practical estimating curves for switching-surge flashover probabili-
ties can be presented in a much simpler format. One approach is
presented at the end of this discussion. The thoroughness of the
switching-surge investigation is impressive and the execution of 4407
cases on the ANACOM to obtain one single surge distribution indicates
that the authors are in possession of the stubborn endurance that
sometimes is needed to produce reliable information.
The scatter diagrams of Fig. 7 show the correlation of maximum
surges on the three phases and the correlation of the magnitude of the
first peak and subsequent peaks on the same phase. From this
information, the authors draw the following conclusions: 1) that the
switching-surge flashover probability of the transmission line is
not significantly influenced by the surges on the phases that are not
exposed to the maximum surge, and 2) that the existence of multiple
peaks on the phase exposed to the highest surge is of no consequence
for the flashover probabilities. The first conclusion seems valid
enough. As a matter of fact, a statistical analysis would show that
even if all phases were exposed to the same maximum surge, the
increase in the probability of flashover would be of little practical
significance. As to the second conclusion, the authors' findings are
undoubtedly correct from the standpoint of probability calculations
as carried out in this paper. However, the effects of multiple peaks
may be important from the standpoint of the resulting insulation
strength. Very little information exists on the flashover voltage of
complex switching surges, but it does not seem proper to assume that
Manuscript received February 13, 1970.
ratio of maximum switching surge Vmax and critical flashover
voltage CFO-semilog paper.
flashover during the second peak is independent of the magnitude
of the first peak. The authors' comments on this would be appreci-
ated.
In evaluating the flashover probability curves, the authors did not
seem to have included weather statistics to obtain the variation in
insulation strength with varying humidity and air density. Inclusion
of such weather-based insulation strength corrections will signifi-
cantly modify the shape of the probability functions presented here.
Will the authors comment on their philosophy in this area?
In the context of line performance, the paper appears to over-
emphasize the importance of accurately determining the surge
voltage distribution. For one thing, the actual distribution of surges
on the line is determined by more than one system condition. A
composite distribution may be obtained by weighting and combining
the surge distributions representing each system condition. Further-
more, the composite distribution will change with time as the system
itself as well as operating modes change. This discusser feels that the
most one can expect to know of the switching surges and their
statistical properties are 1) the maximum surge voltage, and 2)
the approximate severity of the distribution, roughly classified.
Based on this belief, the discusser offers the following approach as a
practical method for estimating flashover probabilities.
For a specific surge voltage V and a specific critical flashover
voltage CFO the flashover probability PFO is a function of the stan-
dardized variable z:
PFO = F(z)
V - CFO (V/CFO - 1)
f al/CFO
Then for a specific value of c/CFO, for example, 5 percent
PFO = F'(V/CFO).
HILEMAN et al.: ESTIMATING SWITCHING-SURGE PERFORMANCE
TABLE III
INDICATION OF MAXIMUM LIKELY ERROR IN TOWER WINDOW CLEARANCE OBTAINED BY USING FIG. 22
Maximum Surge
Voltage Surge Profile
(kV) (feet) (meters)
600 0.3 0.1
900 0.6 0.2
1200 1.2 0.4
1500 2.0 0.6
With the surge distribution defined the flashover probability can
be written as a function of the assumed maximum surge voltage
Vmax and CFO:
PFO = F" V(ax
Fig. 21 shows three switching-surge distributions representing
three classes of different surge distribution severity. This may
seem like a rather rough classification but up till now very few
investigations, if any, have succeeded in establishing the composite
surge distribution with an accuracy requiring a finer classification.
Fig. 22 shows the probability curves for the three classes of surge
distribution severity. These curves were evaluated from the base
case of [10] and include the following assumptions.
1) On the average the surge voltages decrease with 0.4 percent
per mile from the receiving end. The relative surge magnitude along
the line is later referred to as the surge profile.
2) The effects of air density and humidity are included using the
results of a weather based analysis for Portland, Oreg. [11]. The
weather correction statistics for Portland are typical for sea-level
locations with moderate humidity.
To the extent that these assumptions are not representative for
the particular transmission line considered, the flashover prob-
abilities will be in error. Since the significance of a certain deviation
in the flashover probabilities is not always apparent, the investiga-
tion described in [10] gives the effect of erroneous assumptions in
terms of tower window clearance.
Table III contains an indication of the error in tower window
dimensions resulting when the estimating curves in Fig. 22 are used
and the differences between actual and assumed surge profiles and
weather correction statistics are quite extreme [101. The surge distri-
bution column indicates the maximum possible clearance error,
assuming that the proper distribution severity class is used. It can
be concluded from this table that:
1) the significance of misjudgments increases with the maximum
surge voltage and the voltage level;
2) assuming that the surge distribution is correctly classified in
one of the three classes, the surge profile and the weather correction
are at least as critical as the surge distribution itself;
3) the curves should be quite adequate for 345 kV and below, and
may be used for preliminary investigations at 500-kV, 765-kV, and
UHV voltages.
The use of the curves may be best illustrated by an example.
Consider a 500-kV line 3000 feet (915 meters) above sea level.
What is the required tower window CFO voltage that will produce
1-percent probability of flashover if the maximum surge (Vmax) is
2.0 pu and the composite surge distribution is classified as moderately
severe? It is seen that V1max/CFO = 0.87 and with Vmax = 2.0 X
500 X V/2/3 = 816 kV, a CFO of 816/0.87 = 940 kV is required.
This value may now be corrected to sea-level conditions and the
proper clearances evaluated based on flashover test data. Table III
indicates that in the worst case the clearance estimated is not likely
to be off by more than 1 foot (0.3 meter), and less than one-half of
this would be on account of the switching-surge distribution; 1
foot is thus a proper safety adder for the tower window clearance.
The authors have presented a very interesting paper and it is
hoped that they, as well as other investigators having access to a
transient network analyzer, will continue to use these tools for this
type of general studies and that results will be reported in this
TRANSACTIONS. What is particularly needed in the future is some
investigation of distributions composed from several system condi-
tions and some thinking on how distributions will change with time.
1467
Surge
Weather Statistics Distribution
(feet) (meters) (feet) (meters)
0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
0.6 0.2 0.4 0.1
1.5 0.5 0.7 0.2
2.2 0.7 1.5 0.5
REFERENCES
[10] N. D. Reppen, "Significance of assumptions in switching-surge
flashover calculations," Paper 70 CP 39, presented at the
IEEE Winter Power Meeting, New York, N. Y., January
25-30, 1970.
[11] S. Annestrand, E. F. Bossuyt, and N. D. Reppen, "Insulation
analysis of a 500-kV transmission line design," IEEE Trans.
Power Apparatus and Systems, vol. PAS-89, pp. 429-437,
March 1970.
A. J. McElroy (American Electric Power Service Corporation,
New York, N. Y.): The authors have prepared a thought-provoking
paper on a timely subject. From their list of references it would
appear that the overvoltage probability aspect of transmission line
switching-surge reliability has remained dormant for some 3
years. Perhaps in the interim period it has proven a more simple
and direct task to publish laboratory data on transmission tower
flashover behavior than to come to grips with what the authors have
again demonstrated to be a highly complex problem in overall
line design.
The authors present a plethora of original ideas based on the
exhaustive study of a particular transmission system. By presenting
a self-criticism they acknowledge that the validity of their results
may be restricted in application to an extent yet unknown. There-
fore, many questions this discusser might raise are best withheld
until the other investigations the authors call for are carried out.
Perhaps the authors would consider the following specific ques-
tions. With what statistical confidence do the Gaussian and their
extreme value distributions fit the data of Figs. 5 and 9, respec-
tively? Since the overvoltage distribution functions must be sub-
ject to a cutoff (truncation), then by what approximate factor will
the probability of flashover per switching operation be modified by
assuming a smooth (continuous second derivative) functional
transition between either the Gaussian or their extreme value dis-
tribution and the voltage level of truncation?
In the text the authors suggest that consideration be given to
designing a transmission line for 1 switching-surge flashover per 100
breaker operations. This significant suggestion is however apparently
obscured in their summary and conclusions where they call upon a
rather different arguement, i.e., that of 1 flashover per 100 years or
less. Based on [6] the discusser suggests that the following reliability
criterion be considered: with 99.9-percent confidence require that
the number of flashovers be no more than 1 per 100 breaker oper-
ations; on this basis specify the mean flashover rate, the precise
level being established by suitable statistical procedures once an
appropriate density function is established-in [6] a Poisson func-
tion is assumed whereby the mean flashover rate for the present
example would be significantly reduced to 1 per 500 breaker opera-
tions. Once the adjusted mean is established, the procedure sug-
gested in the paper might be pursued. (In this regard would the
authors define the meaning of s and 1ii.)
In conclusion, the discusser notes with great interest the authors'
suggestion of a topological search. Relations should be established
to- obtain the overvoltage probability density function directly
from the constant voltage contours of Fig. 4, once a breaker closing
probability function, even in its most general form, has been as-
signed.
Manuscript received April 9, 1970.
 ~~
1468 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER APPARATUS AND SYSTEMS, SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1970

TABLE IV
500-KV DESIGN DEMONSTRATION

Air Gap Tower Flashover Location Cost per Mile

Insulators Leg Truss CFO Insulators Leg Truss Surges Years Installed
(number) (feet) (feet) (kV) (percent) (percent) (percent) per Flashover per Flashover (dollars)
27 15 16.5 1358 37 30 33 1 069 000 000 106 900 000
27 14 15.4 1307 23 38 39 57 260 000 5 726 000 99 000
27 13 14.3 1251 11 45 44 2 510 000 251 000
27 12 13.2 1191 4 50 46 118 500 11 850 85 000
27 11 12.1 1128 1 53 46 6 420 642
27 10 11.0 1062 0 56 44 459 46 77 000
27 9 9.9 994 0 57 43 50 5
27 8 8.8 924 0 60 40 9 1

Single-circuit rigid towers.

All V Strings, specific creep = 1 in/kV.
2-pu switching surge-700 kV mean, 7.5-percent c.
100-mile line, 500 towers.
Assume 10 high-speed reclose operations per year.

W. S. Price (Bechtel Corporation, San Francisco, Calif.): Effective

EHV line design requires calculatioin of the line performance by z PS/Yr 1. X d
statistical consideration of the tower flashover and switching- -f/C-FO-.4%
4/
/
surge distributions. Although this problem has been studied before,
this is the first paper that permits easy determination of line switch- -
-- 0.- -4-

ing-surge performance for any tower and switching-surge distri- Z~~~~~~~~

bution.
At long intervals a TRANSACTIONS paper appears that is so valuable
that it serves as a source paper for much future work. We believe a.
that this excellent paper is in this category and predict that it will be
used for many future EHV line designs.
Our only disappointment with the paper is that it came 2 years
too late to assist in the design of the Churchill Falls, Labrador, 0~~~~~f/F
735-kV system. During this work, we were interested in reducing 10 Fig. 23.
phase spacing from 50 to 45 feet, which eventually saved $5 out of
$65 million in installed cost, primarily in tower and foundation steel.
However, because of the importance of this 5000-MW transmission 0

system, this gap reduction required a reasonable calculation of the

effect on line switching-surge performance. Therefore, a time-share
computer program called TPROB was developed which made a pre-
0.5
Ai 0.7

cision integration of [6, eq. (5)]. ,0/CFO

It seemed worthwhile to compare TPROB results with the paper,
as shown in Fig. 23. The curves of 5-, 10-, and 20-percent switching-
surge slope, 500 and 2000 towers, were traced from Fig. 13(a).
The circles are TPROB calculations, indicating a 1/1 correspondence.
Similar results were obtained with a TPROB calculation of Fig. 16(a),
using an extreme value switching-surge distribution. Obviously,
the curves in the paper are quite correct and can be used with
confidence.
Perhaps the importance of using these curves during EHV line
design work can be emphasized by presenting a recent study of 8
hypothetical 500-kV lines, as shown in Table IV.
For all designs, 27 standard insulators were used to prevent 60-Hz
contamination flashovers, such as might occur in the Ohio River
valley or in agricultural regions. Leg gaps were reduced in 1-foot
increments from 15 to 8 feet.
The composite tower CFOs were calculated by a TOWER program,
based on the air gap and insulator curves in [121. This program has
checked to within a few percentage points the tower CFOs of all
published full-scale tests.
TPROB then calculated the surges per flashover for each of the
designs, assuming 2-pu switching surges with normal distribution
and a 100-mile line. Note that the 15-foot tower would require more
than 1 billion surges to produce 1 flashover, or 100 million years,
assuming 10 high-speed reclose operations per year. At the other
end of the scale, the 8-foot tower would require only 9 surges per
flashover, or 1 per year.
All this would be little more than an interesting academic exercise,
were it not for the cost saving associated with gap reductions. Note
Manuscript received February 4, 1970.
brkn ietoe orus
reduced~~~~> Fig. 23.
in the last column of Table IV that the 10-foot tower will reduce
total installed costs by $22 000 per mile over the 14-foot tower.
This assumes average material and labor costs, for single-circuit
rigid steel towers. Most of this saving is in tower leg steel, through
reduced broken wire tower torques.
It is interesting to note in Table IV that the insulators are com-
pletely out of control of the flashover path for gaps of 12 feet or less.
Therefore, the performance figures calculated for the smaller towers
are good for rain along the entire line, since the air-gap strength is
not appreciably affected by rain.
Good line design requires a happy balance of all design parameters.
Therefore, the smaller designs noted would require full consideration
of hot line maintenance, radio and audible noise, and bad weather
corona losses.
In the overall line coordination problem, the surge distribution
is just as important as the tower distribution. Unfortunately, in-
dustry effort during the past seven years has been heavily biased
toward the tower side, with several million dollars worth of full-
scale tower tests. Therefore, the authors certainly deserve the
gratitude of the industry for their heroic efforts to better define
surge distributions with miniature system studies.
Their work indicates that the distribution with breaker resistors is
probably extremal. Comparison of Figs. 13(a) and 16(a) shows that
line probability for the extremal surge is approximately 100 times
that for the normal surge, which might be cause for some panic
during a close coordination study. However, comparison of Figs.
13(a) and 17(a) indicates that probability with an extreme value
HILEMAN et al.: ESTIMATING SWITCHING-SURGE PERFORMANCE
distribution and a reasonable ratio of 0.8 between sending and
receiving ends is only about 10 times that of the normal distribution
with level voltage. Therefore, either one of these combinations
appears reasonable for future coordination work.
This is truly a fine and most imnportant paper.
REFERENCES
[12] EHV Transmission Line Reference Book. New York: Edison
Electric Institute, 1969, ch. 6.
Andrew R. Hileman, P. R. Leblanc, and Gordon W. Brown: The
authors are indebted to the discussers for their excellent critiques of
the paper, which add greatly to its usefulness.
As mentioned in the paper, Mr. Glavitsch has proposed a method
for determining the tail of the frequency distribution of switching-
surge magnitudes. This method is similar to that referred to as a
topological search technique in the paper. We are indebted to Mr.
Glavitsch for his further discussion of his proposal.
In answer to Dr. Clerici and Dr. Colombo, equal aiming points
were assumed for the three circuit breakers. That is, a class of
breaker was assumed instead of specific breakers on a particular
line, in which case, each of the three breakers could possess different
aiming points.
From Fig. 19 it is noted that only 2 to 4 percent of the tail of the
frequency distribution is of importance in determining the prob-
ability of line flashover. The problem then is to determine a method
that can be used to determine this part of the distribution curve
with sufficient accuracy. The most important single value is the
maximum overvoltage. This value can be found easily but its
probability of occurrence is difficult. As shown in Fig. 8, even 200
cases appears questionable with regard to an adequate description of
the frequency distribution when the maximum overvoltage is 3.3
pu. However, the number of random cases required tends to decrease
as the maximum overvoltage decreases. In this paper, the "brute
force" or systematic method was used to develop the frequency
distribution when no preinsertion resistors were used in the breaker.
This laborious method is certainly not suggested for normal use.
We hope that other methods, such as the topological search, can be
developed. If sufficient cases are taken, the random method can be
employed.
In answer to Dr. Clerici and Dr. Colombos' third question, in this
paper it is assumed that the negative polarity insulation strength is
sufficiently greater than that for positive polarity that its effect may
be neglected in the line flashover calculations. Or in other words,
V-string insulators are assumed. For vertical string, the negative wet
strength is equal to or less than the positive wet strength. There-
fore, the maximum overvoltage of the three phase voltages was read.
Assuming this to be positive polarity, the maximum positive polarity
voltages on the other two phases were obtained, and the positive
polarity overvoltage subsequent to or preceding the maximum over-
voltage is recorded.
It is agreed that the wavefront of the switching surge is of im-
portance in determining the line insulation design. For 1200-1800-Is
"smooth" wavefronts,-the CFO voltage increases by 11 to 21-percent
[3]. However, shorter front voltage spikes on top of the "smooth"
wave decreases the insulation strength significantly. In this study no
large variation of wavefronts occurred for the higher magnitude
overvoltages.
-Mr. Reppen has proposed a simplified method of probability
estimation based on average conditions. Although not stated, it
appears that Mr. Reppen has assumed a 100-mile line with 5 towers
per mile and a Gaussian frequency distribution of switching-surge
magnitudes. Average weather conditions are assumed based on
historical data from Portland at an elevation 30 feet above sea level.
Also, it appears that Mr. Reppen has assumed V-strong insulators,
thus neglecting wind swing and discounting the effects of negative
polarity flashover.
The method is simple and direct and therefore could be used for
preliminary investigations at 500 kV and above. It is agreed that a
more thorough study of the parameters should be made at 500 kV
Manuscript received April 6, 1970; revised April 16, 1970.
1469
and above. In this regard, the authors feel that a comment on dis-
tribution severity is in order. It seems clear that above 500 kV,
increasing efforts will be made to reduce the maximum switching
surge by use of preinsertion resistors and/or controlled closing of the
breaker. Such measures will reduce absolute maximums, but will
result in more "moderately high" voltage surges. That is, the slope of
Fig. 21 will be reduced and the meaning of distribution severity
becomes less clear.
In contrast to Mr. Reppen, the authors are of the opinion that the
tail of the overvoltage distribution is of prime importance and
methods are needed to describe this portion of the curve more
accurately. We agree with Mr. Reppen that the variation of weather
conditions is of importance and must be considered in the line in-
sulation design. The discusser's approach appears to be to employ a
statistical distribution of all hourly weather observations. However,
since as assumed in the paper, the majority of high-speed-reclose
breaker operations occurred during and as a result of lightning, it
would be logical to segregate weather distributions into two classes;
i.e., those conditions that may produce high-speed circuit-breaker
reclose operations that produce the higher values of overvoltage
and those weather conditions during which no high-speed reclosing
will be employed. Of these two conditions, the first is of major
importance in assessing the system's reliability and therefore should
be separately analyzed for its outage probability.
Mr. Reppen's comment on the effects of multiple peaks is well
made. The effect of previous voltage surges on the flashover prob-
ability of the surges is not well known. The effect of an opposite
polarity bias voltage has been investigated with conflicting results,
and therefore at 500 kV most designers neglected this effect. In this
paper, the second peak was assumed to be independent of the first
peak. However, additional laboratory investigations of this param-
eter are needed.
The authors agree fully with Mr. Reppen's last comment about
the need for a composite distribution and an assessment of its
possible changes with time.
Regarding Dr. McElroy's first question, for the Gaussian case
Fig. 6 shows the assumed normal curve (dashed line) superimposed
over a curve fit through the actual data points, and the corre-
spondence appears to be fairly good above the 80-percent probability
level. Confidence intervals were used, however, for the extrerme value
distribution based on 200 cases. Nearly all data fell within 1 standard
error of the extreme value regression line, except where the reading
error (± .025 pu) exceeded the standard error.
Dr. McElroy also wishes to know how the probability of flashover
will change if a smooth transition from the assumed distribution to
the truncation voltage. This of course is dependent on the kind of
tapering that is used and at what point it should begin. Also, the
difference will be most evident when the probability of line flashover
is small (Fig. 19).
Regarding Dr. McElroy's final point, the probability of flashover
per switching operation must be brought into the correct perspective
by accounting for the number of breaker operations per year. One
operation per year was assumed in the conclusions of the paper,
but it is actually quite dependent on environmental conditions,
particularly the frequency of lightning storms. Also, the authors
feel that the 99.9-percent confidence suggested by Dr. McElroy
is much too high for practical purposes.
One final point is that I,r and ys were not properly defined in the
paper. The subscripts s and r denote the sending and receiving ends
of the line, respectively, so that ,S//IT is a measure of the voltage
variation along the line.
The authors would like to particularly thank Mr. Price for his
gracious discussion and to also thank him for placing in dramatic
perspective the financial advantage of the use of probability methods
in line insulation design. In 1968, when Mr. Price and G. G. Sauv6
presented [13], the discusser developed his TPROB program to
determine the required line insulation strength using probability
analysis.
Again the authors wish to thank the discussers, all of whom are
recognized experts in this and related fields. Their encouragement and
probing comments are appreciated.
REFERENCES
[131 W. S. Price and G. G. Sauve, "Insulation coordination and
conductor selection for the Churchill Falls 735-kV transmission
lines," presented at the IEEE EHV Conference, Montreal,
P. Q., Canada, September 30-October 2, 1968.