Although water managers, policy makers and engineers
are generally aware of the hazards that are exposed by floods, and although average and general numbers are known in their own region of work, many questions and facts remain unsolved and are not revealed when it concerns floods and flooding on a global scale. How many major flood events occur on an annual basis? How are these events distributed over the continents? What is the main cause of these floods? How large are the areas affected? This is just a sample of questions on which this overview attempts to give an indication to initiate discussions on e.g. policy making, mitigation and coping strategies. The importance and relevance of a sound and reliable global database on floods and flooding will become more evident. Not only insurance companies will be interested in economic losses and risk exposures, but research institutes, government and financial organisations such as (development) banks can also benefit from accurate data on floods and flooding. A wide range of scientists is interested in these characteristics to determine and formulate research questions for the development of e.g. assessment methodologies. Engineers can develop more appropriate and suitable flood management and protection schemes, both structural and non-structural, by analysing where mitigation strategies actually work. Governments and international development agencies want to optimise their investments to alleviate poverty and to simulate (economic) prosperity and finally, all these stakeholders are interested in collecting correct information to improve their knowledge on floods and flooding. This contribution gives an overview of characteristic data on floods and flooding on a global scale. Data on flood events from 1985 till 2003 have been analysed and will be presented. An overview and comparison of flood management strategies gives an indication how different societies and nations attempt to cope with these hazards. In order to analyse data on floods and flooding, a distinction is made between different categories of countries and continents. The categorisation is based on the economic status of countries, as defined by the World Development Indicators database of the World Bank (2003): � Least developed countries: low (US$ 2,975 or less) Gross National Income (GNI)/capita; � Emerging countries: middle (US$ 2,976�9,205) GNI/capita; � Developed countries: high (US$ 9,206 or more) GNI/capita. Definition of floods and flooding Definitions of �floods� and �flooding� are often confounding and mixed up when issues concerning high water stages or peak discharges are portrayed. Here both denominations are defined as follows: � A flood is defined as a temporary condition of surface water (river, lake, sea), in which the water level and/or discharge exceed a certain value, thereby escaping from their normal confines. However, this does not necessarily result in flooding (Munich-Re, 1997). � Flooding is defined as the overflowing or failing of the normal confines of e.g. a river, stream, lake, sea or accumulation of water as a result of heavy precipitation by lacking or exceedance of the discharge capacity of drains, both affecting areas which are normally not submerged. 1.1 Floods, flooding and other natural disasters The worldwide damage caused by floods has been extremely severe in recent decades. No other natural hazard appeared so frequent, has claimed more human lives, generated such large economic losses, ruined more fertile land and destroyed more houses. Out of over 7,000 natural disasters that occurred during the last decades, more than 74% were water related. Among these, floods are the most frequent and account for about one-third (Figure 1.1.a) (Dutta, 2003; Cosgrove & Rijsberman, 2000; Munich-Re, 1997). In economic terms too (Figure 1.1.b), floods were responsible for about a third of the overall losses between 1986 and 1995 (Loster, 1999; Munich-Re, 1997) and for 20% during the past 30 years (Dutta, 2003). The largest economic losses were incurred as a Characteristic data on river floods and flooding; facts and figures N. Douben & R.M.W. Ratnayake UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands Copyright � 2006 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK result of urban floods or by immense areas of farmland being destroyed. The overall economic loss caused by natural catastrophes amounted up to approximately US$ 630 billion between 1986 and 1995. The fastgrowing costs of floods and other weather-related disasters (nowadays US$50 to 60 billion per year and much of this in emerging and least developed countries) roughly equal the global development aid provided by all donor countries combined (EO News, 2004). Natural catastrophes claimed the lives of approximately 367,000 people between 1986 and 1995. More than half were victims of storm surges, river floods or flash floods (Figure 1.1.c). Most of the casualties were recorded in Asia, where large-scale natural events have been occurring repeatedly (Munich-Re, 1997). 2 FLOODS; TYPES, CAUSES AND IMPACTS 2.1 Types of flood In general, a distinction can be made between five different types of floods, which are partly emanating from large-scale surface waters (1 and 2) or linked with relatively small-scale events of local character and/or stagnant water bodies (3, 4 and 5): 1. River flood. The majority of floods recorded around the world are the result of river floods in middle or lower stretches that occur after prolonged precipitation over large areas of a basin. Melting snow and obstructing ice can also exceed the conveyance capacity of river channels, hence leading to flooding. Normally, river floods last for several days to several weeks and usually affect large areas (Munich-Re, 2000); 2. Coastal flood. Areas along coastlines may be subject to flooding as a result of tsunamis, hurricanes (cyclonic storms) and unusually high tides. In addition, long-term processes like subsidence and sea level rise can lead to the gradual encroachment of the sea; 3. Flash flood. Flash floods usually develop from local precipitation of extreme high intensity, as generated during (slow-moving) thunderstorms, leading to flooding in a limited area with a high flow rate and catastrophic amounts of damage. Flash floods appear sudden and unforeseen and tear away everything that is not securely fixed. The discharge during a flash flood amounts many times the normal average flow in a watercourse. Flash floods can occur almost anywhere but are particularly dangerous on steep slopes and are also a common phenomenon in arid zones due to parched ground, which normally has a low absorbing capacity; 4. Stagnant and urban floods. Extreme local rainfall, combined with impeded and/or blocked drainage, may cause severe inundations. This type of flooding, depending on topographical and soil conditions and the existence of adequate and well-maintained drainage facilities, mainly occurs in flat and lowerlying regions (e.g. reclaimed areas), but is also often witnessed in urban areas. When land surface is converted from fields or woodlands to built-up area, it loses its ability to absorb rainfall. On average urbanisation may remove storage capacity and increases runoff several times compared to natural terrain; 5. Lake and canal floods. Exceptional periods of precipitation or long lasting inflows from streams and rivers can cause a substantial rise in the water level of lakes, which lack sufficient drainage or adequate outlets. The often densely populated shore areas then inundate for several metres. Longerterm or even permanent flooding of lake areas may occur if sediment fills the lake to the point where the capacity to store in-flowing water is reduced. Similarly, flooding by (drainage) canals occurs 20 32% 18% 34% 16% 55% 29% 9% 7% Number Economic losses Casualties 30% 29% 31% 10% Flooding Earthquake Windstorm Others Figure 1.1. Number (a), economic losses (b), and casualties (c) caused by natural catastrophes worldwide in % (1986�1995; Munich-Re, 1997). Copyright � 2006 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK after periods of long or heavy rain, when the drainage capacity and/or pumping capacity, in case of reclaimed or polder areas, is exceeded. However, also during periods of drought a risk of inundation by embankment failure subsists, as was seen in The Netherlands during the summer of 2003, when two peat embankments failed as a result of instabilities. Compared to river floods the affected area often remains relatively small, but the damages can be high, especially in densely populated areas. 2.2 Causes of river floods and flooding The causes of different types of river floods are numerous. Approximately 50% of the most frequently occurring causes are related to anthropogenic interferences (�man-made floods�). Drainage systems are modified to prevent flooding, but sometimes these efforts have adverse effects and actually may enhance the causes of flooding in up and downstream areas. By protecting (urban) areas against floods, interferences often increase flooding risks (e.g. inundation depth) and concomitant potential damages. Regarding the anthropogenic influence on the occurrence of floods, a distinction can be made between direct (short-term) and indirect (long-term) causes. The direct causes are related to the failure of flood defence structures as a result of exceedance of design conditions or inadequate design, construction, maintenance and operation. The indirect causes have many different appearances; important in this case are: � Physical and spatial planning; � River training and regulation (confinement of rivers); � Water and river basin management (groundwater, deforestation, etc.); � Urbanisation (sealing) and settlement in flood prone areas; � (Men induced) climate variability. Natural causes of floods and flooding Weather patterns determine the amount and location of precipitation and snowfall. The amount and time over which precipitation occurs is not constant for any given area. When the amount of water flowing into an area exceeds the capacity of the river system, the result is usually a flood. Deep snow cover can melt into a large volume of water. Often, heavy rain and a rapid increase in temperature, combined with rapidly melting snow, are the cause of major flooding problems. Saturated soils (i.e. natural sealing) are encountered after long periods of heavy rain, which reduces the absorption capacity considerably. Precipitation results in surface runoff and flows rapidly into streams and rivers. Permafrost can also cause flooding, similar as in the case of saturated soils. When heavy rain and unusually mild temperatures move into an area with frozen rivers, ice jam flooding can occur. Rising water stages break ice layers into large chunks, which float downstream and often pile up near narrow passages or obstructions, such as bridges, dams and barriers. The potential for a backwater flood depends on the initial water levels before the formation of the ice dam and on the time period that the ice dam remains intact. During periods of thaw or due to volcanic eruptions, masses of water and volcanic debris enclosed in glaciers sometimes burst out and shoot down the mountain as a flash flood (also called mudflow or lahars). Moraines are masses of debris deposited by retreating glaciers, behind which water can be trapped. Especially when the permafrost base is receding, thus robbing morainic areas of the stability that the frost provides, the frozen core melts, water seeps through and the barrier is eroded. When the moraine dam breaks, masses of water are suddenly released and gush into the areas below. These events are also known as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF�s). When a steep mountain stream enters a flat valley, there is a sudden decrease in gradient and velocity. Sediment transported is suddenly deposited along the valley walls in an alluvial fan. The mountain stream becomes choked with sediment and breaks up into numerous distributary channels. These obstacles of sediment and debris can cause a flash flood after periods of intense and heavy rainfall. Natural and man-made causes of floods and flooding Landslides and debris flows nearly always have natural causes but are frequently influenced or triggered by human action. Alterations in the structure or gradient of the slope, the extraction of materials (e.g. during road construction), changes in the natural vegetation or changes in water resources management have caused many landslides in the past. The large solid content in the water sometimes leads to a river blocking itself. When the barrier breaks, e.g. after periods of exceptional precipitation, a wave of sediment-laden water shoots down the river. However, these barriers can also cause a substantial rise in water levels, resulting in a backwater flood. Backwater floods usually occur in connection with torrential rain and flash floods, due to the fact that the local drainage system cannot cope with large volumes of water that accumulate in a short period of time. The causes may be �external� (e.g. a drainage system that is overloaded by large volumes of precipitation) or �internal� (e.g. a backwater gate fails, is put out of action or when there is a blockage). Man-made causes of floods and flooding It may seem contradictory, but many river engineering works reduce the natural storage for floodwaters, 21 Copyright � 2006 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK both by preventing water from flowing into the floodplains and, where impermeable floodwalls are used, by not allowing water to be stored behind the (natural) banks. Some adverse developments in river engineering, and thereby potential causes of floods include: � Exceedance of design conditions or inadequate design of dams, storage reservoirs and flood control reservoirs, coupled with a reduced amount of areas that can be flooded without causing too much damage (e.g. natural floodplains or detention ponds); � River regulation, which increases the flood wave propagation, leading to downstream problems; � Excessive levee construction and channelling, accelerating peak flows, wave heights and celerities; � Exceedance of design conditions or inadequate or faulty design of levees, construction errors and the use of incorrect construction materials; � Inadequate maintenance of flood defence structures (ageing, damage); � Inadequate riverbed maintenance (sedimentation or erosion at critical points); � Technical or human failure in the operation of safety installations such as levee openings and spillways; � Exceedance of design conditions or inadequate control and operation of storage reservoirs (reduced buffer capacity). The overtopping or failure of a dam or levee often leads to a failure within a short period of time. This also applies to dams and levees in which it is not so much the structure that is threatened as its stability by erosion of the dam base or levee bank. An important element of a dam is therefore its spillway, which must be designed in such a way that very rare, excessive inflows can be channelled without causing any damage. Furthermore, levee and dam failures can also be caused by: � Weakening by sliding and piping due to prolonged deep soaking by high water levels; � Damage caused by earthquakes, landslides, etc.; � Damage caused by animals, e.g. undermining by musk-rats, damage by cattle hoofs, etc.; � Settlement processes, e.g. by drainage of the subsoil. Urban sewer and storm water drainage systems accelerate the rapid response to rainfall, in combination with the extended impermeable surfaces in urban areas. However, urbanisation has a proportionately greater effect on smaller flooding events. The effects of urbanisation appear less important as the size of the flood and the interval between floods increase (Goudie & Viles, 1998). Large-scale modifications to vegetation are always linked with changes in the water balance. Deforestation and forest decline have extreme effects on runoff generation, because the retaining capacity of large areas is impaired and at the same time the upper soil zone can be destroyed, which leads to erosion. Alterations in the natural landscape for agricultural purposes such as land consolidation, unsuitable methods of cultivation and soil compaction by means of agricultural machines can accelerate the runoff from farmland. 2.3 Impacts on development and societal relevance of floods and flooding Flood disasters, impact on development The escalation of severe flooding events is increasingly posing a substantive threat to both sustainable development and poverty-reduction. The associated increase in reconstruction costs and loss of development assets has forced the issue of disaster reduction and risk management on various policy agenda�s. Building and maintaining resilient societies by developing a culture of prevention and preparedness is an important step in flood mitigation of least developed, emerging as well as developed countries. While no country in the world is entirely safe, lack of capacity to limit the impact of floods (and other hazards) remains a major burden for developing countries. An estimated 97% of natural disaster related casualties each year occur in least developed countries (World Bank, 2000) and, although smaller in absolute figures, the percentage of economic loss in relation to the Gross National Product (GNP) in these countries far exceeds the ones in emerging and developed countries. The need to reverse trends in vulnerability to flood disasters The emphasis on disaster response has absorbed significant amounts of resources, which normally would be allocated for development efforts. If the trend of increasing flooding damages persists, coping capacities of societies in especially least developed and emerging countries, are likely to be overwhelmed. Vulnerability to floods is a function of human action and behaviour. It describes the degree to which 22 Table 2.1. Dam failures with over 1,000 casualties (Munich-Re, 1997). Height Storage capacity Year Name, country (m) (#106m3) 1868 lruhaike, Japan 28 1,633 1889 South Fork, USA 21 1,852 1917 Tigra, India 24 1,360 1960 Oros, Brazil* 54 4,000 1961 Panshet, India* 51 214 1979 Machu, India 26 101 * During construction. Note: unconfirmed dam failure in Huai River, China (1975), causing 230,000 casualties not included. Copyright � 2006 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK a socio-economic system or physical assets are either susceptible or resilient to the impact of flood hazards. It is determined by a combination of several factors, including awareness, the condition of human settlements and infrastructure, public policy and administration, the wealth of a given society and organising abilities in all fields of flood risk management. The level of flood risk in a society is determined by the levels of vulnerability combined with the level of probability and intensity of occurrence. Risk reduction includes activities to reduce both vulnerable conditions and, when possible, the source of floods. There is a close correlation between increasing demographic pressure, especially in least developed countries, escalated environmental degradation, increased human vulnerability and the intensity of flood impacts. Environmental degradation increases the intensity of natural disasters and is often the factor that transforms a flood into a disaster. For example, river floods may be aggravated by poor catchment management (deforestation), which causes erosion and clogs rivers. Poverty and flood vulnerability are integrally linked and mutually reinforcing. The poor are compiled to exploit environmental resources for survival, therefore increasing both the risk and exposure to floods. Moreover, poor people (particularly in least developed countries) are more vulnerable to floods, as they are often forced to settle in flood prone areas such as floodplains, unstable hillsides and deforested lands, because there is no other land available at reasonable cost, sufficiently close to employment opportunities. Flood disasters contribute to, and exacerbate, factors that make (poor) people vulnerable like unemployment, political instability, poor economic conditions and unequal distribution of wealth. Repeated exposure to flooding disasters can lead into a downward spiral of chronic poverty, due to the limited options and means to cope and recover from their impacts. Benefits of floods Floods also provide benefits and some ecosystems depend strongly on them. Moreover, many farming communities rely on floods for water supply and fertilisation (Cosgrove & Rijsberman, 2000). On the long term, benefits of natural floods almost certainly outweigh the negative aspects for these areas (Chatterjee, 1996). Basically, the benefits of floods include the following (United States Department of Agriculture, 1976): � When a river overflows its banks it deposits sediments into the floodplains, thereby fertilising the soil with organic matter and minerals, making the area suitable for agriculture; � Floods provide much of the critical habitat for many biotas such as fish, wildlife and waterfowl. Spring pools that remain after flooding support insects and small animals, which in turn, feed larger creatures. Many species show a very strong response to floods due to the additional habitat provided by downed trees for instance (Kolber, 1999). Floods also benefit (commercial) fisheries, as is the case for instance in Cambodia (Mekong River); � Floods carry food to ocean estuaries, which are breeding grounds for marine life; � An improvement of livelihood and health services of communities after a flooding event, as a result of sustainable relief and recovery practices, is regarded an important indirect benefit, especially in least developed countries (Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, 2000); � In many areas, the deposition of sediment keeps the elevation of deltas and estuaries above sea level. Nowadays floodwaters are often no longer able to reach these lands as a result of large scheme river engineering works. Without the continued replenishment of sediment from river floods, many of these areas have subsided to elevations below the mean sea level; � Percolating floodwater in floodplains recharges groundwater reserves, commonly used as sources of drinking water and often considered as an important drought mitigation strategy. 3 CHARACTERISTIC DATA ON RIVER FLOODS 3.1 A regional approach of river floods and flooding Out of a total of 207 countries, the minority (less than 30%) is categorised as developed, 40% as emerging and 33% as least developed (Table 3.1). Nearly all least developed counties are situated in Africa (62%), Asia (19%) and Oceania (18%). Europe on the other hand accounts for over half of all developed countries. With regard to the total geographic area covered, 29% is categorised as developed, 53% as emerging 23 Table 3.1. Distribution of developed, emerging and least developed countries over the world�s continents (World Bank, 2003). Least Developed Emerging developed Total Africa 2 12 42 56 Americas 9 30 1 40 Asia 12 25 13 50 Europe 31 13 0 44 Oceania 4 1 12 17 Total 58 81 68 207 Copyright � 2006 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK and 18% as least developed. In total, 80% of the geographic area covered by least developed countries is situated in Africa and approximately half of the developed area in North America. The economic status of societies determines to a large extend their capability to cope and �live� with floods and flooding. Societies in developed countries are relatively well prepared; most of the river systems are heavily engineered and confined and safety standards are basically sufficient to prevent regular flood disasters. On the other hand, damages will be extremely high when a levee or flood defence structure fails, especially in urbanised areas. In many cases this level of preparedness is based on the strong financial resources. Formally, these societies do not really �live with floods�, but they live with recurring peak flows. In a variety of emerging and least developed countries societies are used to regular flooding, which may be even considered as beneficial. In these countries, people may �welcome� a flood, because it brings fertile soils and benefits (commercial) fishery. In general, river systems are not heavily engineered, both as a result of lacking financial resources as well as the (wise) consciousness that controlling and maintaining those large river systems is extremely difficult. Through the years, people and societies have adapted their way of living to recurring flooding events by flood proofing their houses and main infrastructure. Meanwhile, flood forecasting instruments and organisations have improved and relief, response and recovery measures are established or in development. Nevertheless, major floods still have large impacts on the socio-economic structure and on societal development. Since (fighting) poverty is a main issue, the level of vulnerability to floods is still very high. All the more, because the effects of floods undermine the achievements reached in poverty reduction significantly (Shanks et al., 1999). In emerging and least developed countries, which are not used to regular flooding, the awareness of floods is rather low. Generally, a flooding event has devastating impacts. Often there is a lack of emergency institutions, which results in complete chaos during and after the flooding event. Large amounts of people become homeless for a longer period of time and many are in need of food and medicines. The physical devastation of (not flood proofed) houses, industries and infrastructure is tremendous, crops may be completely destroyed and a large amount of cattle casualties may be counted. Diseases and illness spread easily and clean water is hard to obtain. The reconstruction costs are enormous, which generally means that these societies may have to depend on international aid (Robinson, 2000). Population, growth and density Asia hosts by far the majority of the world population (over 60%). The distribution over the other continents, with exception of Oceania, ranges between 12 and 14%. It is therefore not surprising that the emerging countries, of which nearly one-third is situated in Asia, host 70% of the world population. By the year 2030 it is estimated that the world�s population will amount approximately 8.3 billion of which 60% will be living on the Asian continent and 18% in Africa (Population Reference Bureau, 2002). The world�s highest populated areas are located in Asia, resulting in large and numerous concentrations of dense population, such as 832 persons per km2 in Bangladesh and in deltaic areas of China (Figure 3.2). Exceptional high population densities are found in emerging countries, while developed and least developed nations have more or less equal values. However, the population density ratio between Asia and emerging countries is not similar as observed with absolute population numbers, due to a relative large geographic area covered by emerging countries in Europe and North America, with relatively low amounts of population. 24 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Developed Emerging Least developed Population (million) Estimated population 2025 2002 Population Estimated population 2050 Figure 3.1. Population (2002) and estimated population (2025 and 2050; Population Reference Bureau, 2002). 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Developed Emerging Least developed Population density (persons/km2) Figure 3.2. Worldwide population densities in 2002 (Population Reference Bureau, 2002). Copyright � 2006 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure for the total value of production of a country (or region) in a specific period, before deducting allowances for consumption of fixed capitals. The GDP is an important indicator for economic growth and size of the economy. The GDP per unit area (Figure 3.3) shows the average production power of a continent or category of countries with reference to the total geographic area concerned. Compared with Africa and Oceania, the values for the GDP/km2 are relatively high in Europe, the Americas and Asia. These high values are also reflected in the GDP/km2 for the developed countries, which claim approximately 65% of the total earnings worldwide. The low values for Africa and Oceania are mainly caused by the fact that relatively large areas of lands are not used for production. Irrigated and drained area The percentage of irrigated area is a measure for the use of water. On a global scale nearly 70% of all natural water resources are used for irrigation purposes (Schultz, 2001). However, the local and regional climate, farming practices and technologies applied have a significant influence on the percentage of irrigated land. By continents, Asia claims the largest percentage of irrigated area out of its total geographic area (Figure 3.4). Vast areas of land are used for agriculture and the tropical climate demands a large volume of water to maintain a sufficient crop yield. Asia is also responsible for the relative high percentage of irrigated land in emerging countries, where agriculture is the main source of income. The percentage of irrigated area in Africa and Oceania is very low, especially when the population density ratio is considered, which equals approximately 6.5. The percentages in developed countries are relatively low compared to emerging countries as a result of relatively favourable climatic conditions. Generally, climatic factors determine the relevance and importance of drainage facilities. The percentage of drained area can be considered as a measure for the venerability of land and water development. As most areas have their own natural drainage system, manmade drainage systems are implemented to develop (reclaimed) areas for specific use or for water logging and salinity control in irrigated areas. Reliable and well-maintained drainage systems reduce the probability of inundation as a result of floods caused by intense precipitation. In nearly all the planned and cultivated lands, natural or artificial drainage systems are implemented and/or modified somehow. Hence, an interrelation between the percentages of irrigated and drained area could be assumed. However, when comparing these percentages (Figure 3.4), this only applies for Oceania and Africa. The percentage of drained areas in the developed countries (Europe and Americas) is approximately twice as large as the irrigated areas. This is mainly due to the prevailing climatic conditions. In the emerging and least developed countries this ratio changes oppositely towards two to three times larger irrigated areas. This implies that the existing irrigation and drainage systems for mostly agricultural purposes have not been optimised yet. Food production On a global scale, Asia produces the largest amount of cereals such as wheat, coarse grains and milled rice (Food and Agricultural Organisation, 2004). Although the ratio between irrigated and drained area is not yet fully optimised, the productivity of agricultural land, as far as the cereal production is concerned, is much higher in comparison with the other continents (Figure 3.5). The cereal production in emerging and least developed countries amounts approximately 25 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Developed Emerging Least developed GDP/unit area (103 US$/km2) Figure 3.3 Worldwide distribution of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area (World Bank, 2003). 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Developed Emerging Least developed Irrigated and drained area (%) Irrigated Drained Figure 3.4 Percentage of irrigated and drained area worldwide (International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, 2004). Copyright � 2006 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK 55% of the world�s total. However, the efficiency of food production in the developed countries is higher, when taking the percentage of irrigated area into account. 3.2 Origin of data on river floods and flooding The data used to describe the characteristics of floods and flooding between 1985 and 2003 are derived from three different sources: � The annual overviews from the �Active Archive of Large Floods� developed and maintained by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO). The information in this database is derived from a wide variety of news, governmental, instrumental and remote sensing sources. The listings contain any flood that appears to be �large�, with for example, significant damage to structures or agriculture, long (decades) reported intervals since the last similar event, and/or casualties (Brakenridge et al., 2004); � The �International Disasters Database� (EM-DAT), compiled by the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) and the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This database contains records of flood events, matching at least one of the following criteria: (i) 10 or more people killed, (ii) 100 or more people affected, (iii) a call for international assistance and/or (iv) issuance of a declaration of a state of emergency (OFDA/CRED, 2005); � Compiled data from the �M�nicher R�ckversicherungs-Gesellshaft� (Munich-Re), derived from the �World of Natural Hazards� CDROM (Munich-Re, 2000), the �Flooding and Insurance� booklet (M�nich-Re, 1997) and various �Annual Reviews�. This database mainly contains major flood events in terms of monetary and economic losses. 3.3 Characteristics of river floods between 1985 and 2003 Number of floods The world has experienced between 1,700 and 2,500 (major) flood events between 1985 and 2003 (Table 3.2). The majority of these floods, over 50%, occurred in emerging countries. On a continental scale, Asia accounted for approximately 45% and the Americas for approximately 25%. The high frequency of flood events in Asia is mainly caused by the fact that the world�s highest amount of average rainfall and volume of river water (13,500km3/year) is observed in this continent (Dutta, 2003). Figure 3.6 illustrates an (statistically significant) increasing exponential trend in worldwide flood frequencies. However, the reliability of data increases with time, which means that the presented trend overestimates the increase of flood frequencies. Loster (1999) derived similar trends, but took different time periods into account and Meyers (1997) found similar trends as well, but only for data from the United States. 26 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Developed Emerging Least developed Annual cereal production (106*tonneskm2/year) Figure 3.5. Worldwide food production of cereals (Food and Agricultural Organisation, 2004). R2 = 0.5518 R2 = 0.7358 R2 = 0.6096 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Number of floods 1989 DFO CRED Munich-Re Expon. (CRED) Expon. (Munich-Re) Expon. (DFO) Figure 3.6. Global number of floods (1985�2003), based on data from DFO (Brakenridge et al., 2004), OFDA/ CRED (2005) and Munich-Re (1997 & 2000). Table 3.2. Number of flood events between 1985 and 2003 (Brakenridge et al., 2004; OFDA/CRED, 2005). Categories of countries Continents Worldwide Developed Emerging Least developed Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania DFO 2,493 672 1,434 387 320 649 1,186 251 87 CRED 1,734 381 956 397 339 443 668 229 55 Copyright � 2006 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK Dutta (2003) reports a doubling of the frequency of floods worldwide during the past 30 years, from about 50 flood events in the 70�s to 100 in the 90�s and a doubling of flood frequencies in Asia between 1978 and 1999. Flood duration The global average flood duration varies between one and two weeks (Table 3.3). Floods last longest in least developed countries, especially in Asia, Africa and South America. The relative short duration in developed countries is possibly due to the specific meteorological driving force that generates a flood and the ability to fight floods more effectively. Monsoon and tropical cyclone driven floods, which produce large volumes of precipitation, occur far more often in emerging and least developed countries (see also Table 3.4). Flood causes On a global scale floods are mainly caused by heavy and/or long lasting rain (approximately 65%), brief torrential rain (15%), tropical cyclones (10%) and monsoon rains (5%). Table 3.4 gives an overview of the percentile distribution (frequency) of flood causes for the various categories of countries and for the continents. The numbers in brackets indicate the percentile distribution of the total damage for which a specific cause is accounted for. Globally, there is no distinct relationship between flood causes and damages. Although heavy rain is accounted for the majority of damages, clear regional differences can be distinguished. In Africa and South America the frequency of heavy rain as a cause for floods is situated well above the global average. However, the �flooding damage potential� (percentile distribution of the total damage) for heavy rain is clearly less in Oceania and least developed countries. Brief torrential rains, which often are the cause of flash floods, have a higher damage potential in South America and Oceania. In the case of South America this could be related to the high degree of urbanisation, where 80 to 90% of the population is living in urban areas. Tropical cyclones are causing relative less damage in emerging countries, specifically Asia, and have a rather high damage potential in the Americas and Oceania. 27 Table 3.3. Average flood duration (days) between 1985 and 2003 (Brakenridge et al., 2004; OFDA/CRED, 2005). Categories of countries Continents Least Worldwide Developed Emerging developed Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania DFO 9.1 6.3 9.6 12.7 11.7 8.4 9.5 7.1 7.2 CRED 10.9 6.4 10.9 15.1 12.9 9.3 12.1 8.6 5.5 Table 3.4. Percentile distribution of flood causes and damages accounted for between 1985 and 2003, based on Brakenridge et al. (2004) and OFDA/CRED (2005). The numbers in brackets indicate the percentile distribution of the total damage for which a specific cause is accounted for. Categories of countries Continents Least Global Developed Emerging developed Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Heavy rain 65 65 65 65 85 65 55 75 60 (87.5) (85) (90) (55) (90) (75) (90) (90) (42.5) Brief torrential 15 15 15 10 10 15 15 15 10 rain (5) (2.5) (5) (2.5) (5) (2.5) (5) (5) (12.5) Tropical 10 10 10 5 3 10 10 � 20 cyclones (5) (10) (2.5) (10) (5) (20) (2.5) (#1) (20) Monsoon 5 � 5 10 � � 15 � 5 rain (2.5) (1) (30) (#1) (#1) (2.5) (#1) (22.5) Dam/levee break 1 � 1 2 2 1 2 1 � or release (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) Rain and 3 5 2 1 � 3 � 5 � snowmelt (#1) (2.5) (#1) (#1) (#1) (2.5) (#1) (2.5) (#1) Others 1 5 2 7 � 6 3 4 5 (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) (#1) Copyright � 2006 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK Although the frequency of monsoon rains is high in Asia, they cause relative less damage, which is contrary to least developed countries and Oceania. Presumably the level of preparedness and awareness for these types of hazards is higher in the Asian continent. Floods caused by rain in combination with snowmelt are a typical phenomenon in developed countries (Europe and North America). Severity class and flood magnitude The �severity class� in the DFO database represents an indicator for flood magnitude assessment purposes on a 1 to 3 scale (Brakenridge et al., 2004): � Class I: large flooding events with significant damage to structures and/or agriculture, casualties and/or a 1 to 2 decades-long reported interval since the last similar event; � Class II: very large flooding events with a greater than 20, but less than 100-year estimated recurrence interval and/or a local recurrence interval of around 1 to 2 decades and affecting a large geographic region (#5,000km2); � Class III: extreme flooding events with an estimated recurrence interval greater than 100 years. Class I represents 85% of the globally recorded flooding events and class II and III represent respectively 13 and 3%. A similar distribution is observed with the continents and categories of countries, except Oceania and the developed countries where class I represents approximately 75% and class II approximately 20%. In Europe a lower percentage is found for class I (77%) and a higher percentage for class II and III (respectively 16 and 7%) floods. This is mainly due to the relative high flood defence standards (#20-year return periods) and the relative large affected areas in case of a levee or embankment breach, which cause a flooding event to be classified in a higher ranking. Although not statistically significant, a stronger increase in the annual frequency of class I events can be observed, compared with class II and III floods. The relative annual severity class, which is a percentage of all the recorded floods in a year, does not show any significant trend. However, it appears that class I floods are increasing, that class II events are slightly decreasing and that class III remains more or less constant. This would imply that the global increase of flood frequencies is mainly caused by relative large events with a recurrence interval of 10 to 20 years. Globally and in emerging countries the increase of flooding damages in between class II and III is larger compared with the increase in between class I and II. This deviation is mainly observed in Asia and to a lesser extend in Europe. In the Americas the damages remain more or less constant in between class II and III. The aerial extend of directly and indirectly affected regions, which are generally larger than the flooded area, is also increasing with severity classes. A larger increase is observed in between class II and III globally, in emerging countries, Asia and Europe. The flood magnitude indicator (FM) is another method to assess flooding events, including parameters such as duration (D), severity class (SV) and the affected region (AR) (Brakenridge et al., 2004): The �severity� of a flooding event increases with a higher flood magnitude indicator. A statistically significant annual trend of the flood magnitude indicator is not determined, but a slight increase is observed in the developed countries, Africa, Europe and Oceania. On a global basis and in the Americas the flood magnitude remains more or less constant and a slight decrease appears in the emerging and least developed countries as well as in Asia.