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Background
In small doses, ultraviolet radiation can produce sunburn and has been
shown to cause skin cancer in laboratory animals. In greater amounts,
however A this radiation can "break apart" important biological chemicals,
including DNA. A 1% depletion in the ozone layer allows 2% more
ultraviolet radiation to reach the earth's surface. Scientists predict that this
would raise the incidence of skin cancer by 4% to 5%.
Chlorofluorocarbons
After CFC's are emitted, it takes ten years for them to reach the
stratosphere. Once there, they can continue to destroy ozone molecules for
75 to 100 years, depending on their type. Most continue for about 100
years with each CFC molecule destroying approximately 100,000 ozone
molecules. Compounding this is a process called "banking". Since not all
CFCs are emitted at the time of manufacture, some CFCs may take 15
years or more to escape from products such as refrigerators and foam
insulation. As a result, CFCs produced today will affect the ozone layer
for a century or more."
The United States and Britain are currently developing substitutes for
CFCS. Dupont, one of the world's leading producers of CFCs, announced
that it now has two possible substitutes for CFCs used as cleaning agents
by electronics companies. These account for about 20% of world
consumption. Dupont has also stated that it now has good substitute
prospects for all major CFC markets.
The use of CFCs and halons has been growing steadily since the 1970's.
Since then, CFCs have shown an average annual growth rate of 5% to 7%
and halons a growth rate of 20%.ls Furthermore, a World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) study showed that there is widespread use of carbon
tetrachloride in developing countries. Environmentalists say that its use
should be discontinued since carbon tetrachloride can be replaced easily
and its high toxicity makes it dangerous to both water quality and worker
health.
History
In 1985, scientists from the British Antarctic Survey found that the ozone
level above Antarctica had decreased drastically. This discovery prompted
the scientific community to reopen the ozone depletion debate. They
discovered that the ozone hole over Antarctica had been reoccurring every
spring since the 1970's. Scientists have concluded that the ozone level
above Antarctica is now about 50% less than in October 1979. The ozone
hole above Antarctica is now larger than the size of the U.S.
During the Antarctic winter, the air in the stratosphere becomes very cold
and small ice clouds begin to form. CFCs in the stratosphere then
condense on the surface of ice particles within these clouds. As a result,
when spring arrives and the sun's rays hit the clouds, the CFCs are able to
destroy ozone at an unprecedented rate. This period continues until the sun
warms up the clouds and causes them to disperse.
International Action
The discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole made it clear that international
regulation of ozone depleting chemicals was necessary. After nearly five
years of negotiations, the Montreal Protocol was adopted in September
1987. The treaty was developed with the guidance of the United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP) and went into effect January 1989. This
new treaty requires signatory countries to reduce their CFC production
and consumption by 50% by the year 1999 and also requires a freeze on
the use of halons to 1986 levels. Developing countries, such as China,
India, and most nations in South America and Africa, are allowed an
added ten years to meet these requirements. In the meantime, they are
allowed to increase their per capita use so they may continue with planned
development. (Western per capita consumption of CFCs is said to be 100
times higher than this).
Because of their great stability, 40% of the CFCs now in the air will still
be there in the year 2100. The Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Experiment
issued a statement saying that even if the Montreal Protocol received
worldwide cooperation, chlorine and bromine in the atmosphere would
still increase by a factor of 2 by the year 2500. These findings were
supported by Canadian scientists. Additionally, Mostafa Tolba, executive
director of UNEP has estimated that there will be a decrease in ozone of at
least 2% during the next century.
Fortunately, the accord does allow for the reevaluation of the current
timetable if new information is discovered. Because of current findings,
many countries are going beyond The Montreal Protocol. The twelve
nation European Community met in Brussels in March and adopted a plan
to stop all production and use of CFCs by the year 2000. They have agreed
to cut CFC production to 85% as soon as possible and gradually phase out
all production by the end of the century.
In May, the signatories to the Montreal Protocol met in Helsinki for the
first time since the Protocol's inception. They adopted a declaration calling
for a complete phase out of CFC's by the year 2,000 and for a ban on the
use of halons as soon as feasible. The declaration also calls for provisions
to assist developing countries through funding and transfer of technology.
These countries also showed support for the elimination of other harmful
chlorine containing chemicals, such as methyl chloroform and carbon
tetrachloride. Analysis presented at the conference showed that a ban on
CFCs alone will not be sufficient to eliminate the buildup of chlorine in
the stratosphere.
One of the main problems facing the regulation of CFCs is that they are
used extensively in manufacturing processes. Developing countries fear
that their restriction will hinder their ability to continue planned
development. Industrialized nations are concerned that as they phase out
CFCs, developing countries will "take up the slack". In a recent study,
Irving Mintzer, a research scientist with World Resources Institute, stated
that if only four developing countries (China, India, Indonesia, and Brazil)
increase their consumption of CFCs to the levels allowed by the Montreal
Protocol, CFC production on a worldwide basis would double from the
1986 base level.
China and India, the world's two most populated developing countries,
have been hesitant to sign the Montreal Protocol and have asked for an
international fund to be set up to help them change over to more
expensive, but environmentally safe chemicals. They ask that this fund be
financed by main producers and consumers of CFCs and also be used to
promote research into CFC alternatives and to provide free transfer of
technology to developing countries which comply with the Montreal
Protocol. Although the two countries currently account for only 10% of
the world market, their potential for growth is great. Without their support,
the protocol would have very little effect.
Currently, less than 10% of the 1.2 billion Chinese population have
refrigerators. China has built twelve CFC plants in an effort to provide its
population with refrigerators and raise the the standard of living in that
country. India, meanwhile, has stated that it will not accept that foreign
assistance for the environment be increased at the expense of other aid.
Another obstacle to CFC regulation has been the general disagreement
among scientists as to the extent of ozone depletion. Part of the problem is
that they have relied on models to predict ozone depletion from manmade
chemicals. The models attempt to reduce the earth's climate to a set of
grids and numbers based on the physical laws of motion and
thermodynamics. These models are not always accurate. Before the
Antarctic ozone hole was discovered, climate models had not factored in
the presence of ice clouds (PSCS) in the Antarctic stratosphere. Most
scientists agree that manmade chemicals are destroying the ozone, but
they disagree on the severity.
The United Nation 's Environment Program initiated work in 1981 aimed
at the elaboration of a global framework for the protection of the ozone
layer. After several years of negotiations, the Vienna Convention for the
Protection of the Ozone Layer was adopted in March 1985. The
convention provides for international cooperation in research, monitoring,
and exchange of data. This was the first time that the international
community had recognized a need for action on an environmental problem
before actual damages were recorded. Agreement was not reached at that
time, however, on concrete measures to control ozone depleting
chemicals. Instead, a process was launched to improve understanding of
the nature and impacts of ozone depiction and to narrow differences in
various countries' approaches to the problem. This process included: two
UNEP workshops, in Rome in May 1986 and in Leesburg, Virginia in
September 1986, on key economic and conceptual issues related to the
control of ozone-depleting chemicals; an international conference in June
1986, cosponsored by the U.S. Government and the UNEP, on the effects
of ozone depletion and climate change; and detailed assessments by the
international scientific community of atmospheric science and the effects
of ozone depletion. A highlight was the publication of a document on
atmospheric ozone, prepared by 150 scientists coordinated by Dr. Robert
Watson of NASA, under the sponsorship of NASA, the UNEP, the World
Meteorological Organization, the European Commission, NOAA
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), FAA (Federal
Aviation Administration) and the German Federal Ministry for Research
and Technology.
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