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CHAPTER 3: The Science of Physical Geography

(b). The Hypothetico-Deductive Method

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Philosopher Karl Popper suggested that it is impossible to prove a scientific theory true by means of induction, because
contrary evidence will not be found. Instead, Karl Popper proposed that proper science is accomplished by deduction. De
falsification. Falsification is a particular specialized aspect of hypothesis testing. It involves stating some output from theo
contrary cases using experiments or observations. The methodology proposed by Popper is commonly known as the hypot

Popper's version of scientific method first begins with the postulation of a hypothesis. A hypothesis is an educated guess o
phenomenon. The researcher then tries to prove or test this scientific theory false through prediction or experimentation
forecast or extrapolation from the current state of the system of interest. Predictions are most useful if they can go beyond
controlled investigation designed to evaluate the outcomes of causal manipulations on some system of interest.

To get a better understanding of the hypothetico-deductive method, we can examine the following geographic phenomena.
Pacific Coast of British Columbia and Washington, we find that the plants in these communities spatially arrange themselve
elevation. Near the shoreline plant communities are dominated primarily by a single species known as Scirpus americanus.
Scirpus americanus disappears and a species called Carex lyngbyei becomes widespread. The following hypothesis has been
phenomenon:

The distribution of Scirpus americanus and Carex lyngbyei is controlled by their tolerances to the frequency of tidal f
more tolerant of tidal flooding than Carex lyngbyei and as a result it occupies lower elevations on the tidal marsh. Ho
cannot survive in the zone occupied by Carex lyngbyei because not enough flooding occurs. Likewise, Carex lyngbye
than Scirpus americanus and as a result it occupies higher elevations on the tidal marsh. Carex lyngbyei cannot surviv
Scirpus americanus because too much flooding occurs.

According to Popper, to test this theory a scientist would now have to prove it false. As discussed above this can be done
analysis; or 2) by way of experimental manipulation. Each of these methods has been applied to this problem and the resu

Predictive Analysis

If the theory is correct, we should find that in any tidal marsh plant community that contains Scirpus americanus and Care
of these two species should be similar in all cases. This is indeed true. However, there could be some other causal factor,
be responsible for these unique spatial patterns.

Experimental Manipulation

If the two species are transplanted into the zones of the other they should not be able to survive. An actual transplant exp
can actually grow in the zone occupied by Carex lyngbyei, while Carex lyngbyei could also grow at lower Scirpus sites. Ho
vigorous as the elevation became lower and at a certain elevation it could not grow at all. These results falsify the postulat
modified based on the results and tested again.

The process of testing theories in science is endless. Part of this problem is related to the complexity of nature. Any one p
numerous factors each having its particular cause and effect. For this reason, one positive test result is not conclusive proo
explained. However, some tests are better than others and provide us with stronger confirmation. These tests usually allow
from the effects of causal factors. Manipulative experiments tend to be better than tests based on prediction in this respect

Study Guide
Additional Readings
Internet Weblinks
Citation: Pidwirny, M. (2006). "The Hypothetico-Deductive Method". Fundamentals of Physical Geography, 2nd Edition. Date Viewed. http://www.phys

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Created by Dr. Michael Pidw irny & Scott Jones University of British Columbia Okanagan

Email Corrections and Suggestions to: geo@physicalgeography.net

Copyright © 1999-2014 Michael Pidw irny

05/07/2009 9:57

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