Raw Mats Data

Table 4
Countries of Origin of UCO in Million Tons
Country of Origin Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

2008-2009 209-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012
Australia 0.04 0.27
Austria 0.31 2.93 0.27
Belgium 0.68 20.39 2.72
Canada 19.5
Chile 0.27 0.23 30.91
China 1.25
Czech Republic 0.11 0.88
Denmark 1.09 1.74
Finland 0.23 3.66
France 0.79 16.46 4.91
Germany 1.25 2.35 83.72 84.23
Hong Kong 2.57
Ireland 0.85 0.34 2.8 5.33
Italy 0.28 7.56
Netherlands 2.08 128.4 229.07
Philippines 1.43 0.11 7.29
Portugal 2.93 0.65
Republic of Korea 4.38
Singapore 0.13
Spain 41.56 39.64
Sweden 0.38 0.11
Switzerland 0.31 0.1 0.21
United Arab Emirates 0.35
United Kingdom 35.92 29.75 106.41 136.94
United States 0.06 50.82 130.95
Unknown 1.5 4.48 0.25 55.1
total 39.52 42.85 459.24 770.35
e4
UCO in Million Tons
Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
0.65 2.69 4.8 7.51
0.27 2.2175 1.09 0.367
3.96 16.67 9.02 0.94
0.84 63.54 207.6 433.02
0.96 31.04 21.52 8.26
0.18 4.83 15.2 31.29
0.05 12.04 28.1 50.56
0.22 17.36 39.93 71.18
0.27 50.82 118.98 214.42
1.64 16.38 8.71 1.32
21.55 89.09 63.01 27.12
0.89 13.05 39.05 78.89
2.26 4.16 3.86 3.35
1.78 93.92 223.02 404.36
33.39 318.46 205.29 51.88
9.2 4.80 6.94 9.48
0.43 12.13 30.23 56.57
5.27 44.76 122.85 239.54
0.2 1.59 4.3 8.33
16.04 184.84 427.16 756.2
0.01 0.73 2.06 4.07
0.12 0.09 0.13 0.18
0.42 3.57 9.8 19.11
128.18 139.21 144.31 146.64
80.61 153.53 125.50 84.85
7.45 24.83 24.42 23.08
316.95 1306.34 1886.89 2732.50
GLOBAL PROPYLENE GLYCOL DE
Arithmetic Straight Line Method
Year Demand (MT) a 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_�

2011 0.38 -0.19 0 0 0
2012 0.11 -0.19 3.80E-01 1.95E-01 -8.50E-02
2013 0.01 -0.19 1.10E-01 -7.50E-02 8.50E-02
Total
N 3
N-1 2
Standard Deviation
Total 5.00E-01
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method
Year Demand (MT) % increase/decrease 1+r 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�

2011 0.38 0 0.1902 0 0
2012 0.11 -0.7105263158 0.1902 3.80E-01 7.23E-02
2013 0.01 -0.9090909091 0.1902 1.10E-01 2.09E-02
N 3
N-1 2
Total 0.50 -1.6196
r -0.80981
Statistical Straight Line Method
Year Demand (MT) X �^� XY a

2011 0.38 1 1 3.80E-01 5.37E-01
2012 0.11 2 4 2.20E-01 5.37E-01
2013 0.01 3 9 3.00E-02 5.37E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 0.50 6 14 0.63
Statistical Parabolic Curve Method
Year Demand (MT) X �^� �^� XY

2011 0.38 -1 1 1 -3.80E-01
2012 0.11 0 0 0 0.00E+00
2013 0.01 1 1 1 1.00E-02
N 3
N-1 2
Total 0.50 0 2 2 -3.70E-01
PROJECTION USING STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE METHOD
Demand (metric tons)

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 0.73 4 Pro
2015 2.06 6 100
2016 4.07 8 90
2017 6.76 10 80
2018 10.13 12 70
2019 14.18 14 60
2020 18.91 16 50
2021 24.32 18 40
2022 30.41 20 30
2023 37.18 22 20
2024 44.63 24 10
2025 52.76 26 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 61.57 28
2027 71.06 30
2028 81.23 32
PROPYLENE GLYCOL DEMAND
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
7.23E-03 METHOD STD DV REMARKS
7.23E-03
1.45E-02
6.94E-02
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
3.77E-02 1.42E-03
-1.09E-02 1.19E-04
Total 1.54E-03
Standard Deviation 2.27E-02
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-1.85E-01 3.52E-01 2.83E-02 8.03E-04
-1.85E-01 1.67E-01 -5.67E-02 3.21E-03
-1.85E-01 -1.83E-02 2.83E-02 8.03E-04
Total 4.82E-03
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
3.80E-01 1.10E-01 -1.85E-01 8.50E-02 3.80E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.10E-01 -1.85E-01 8.50E-02 1.10E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.00E-02 1.10E-01 -1.85E-01 8.50E-02 1.00E-02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 2.19E-33
Standard
2.70E-17
3.90E-01 Deviation
Projected Global Demand of Propylene Glycol

00
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year
−𝐘_� )

2010 0.31 -0.06 0 0 0
2011 0.1 -0.06 3.10E-01 2.47E-01 -1.47E-01
2012 0.21 -0.06 1.00E-01 3.67E-02 1.73E-01
2013 0.12 -0.06 2.10E-01 1.47E-01 -2.67E-02
Total
N 4
N-1 3
Standard Deviation
Total 7.40E-01
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�

2010 0.31 0 0.9980 0 0
2011 0.10 -0.6774193548 0.9980 3.10E-01 3.09E-01
2012 0.21 1.1 0.9980 1.00E-01 9.98E-02
2013 0.12 -0.4285714286 0.9980 𝐘_𝐢−�
2.10E-01 𝐘_�
2.10E-01
N 4 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
N-1 3
Total 0.74 -0.0060
r -0.00200
�^�

2010 0.31 1 1 3.10E-01 3.00E-01
2011 0.10 2 4 2.00E-01 3.00E-01
2012 0.21 3 9 6.30E-01 3.00E-01
2013 0.12 4 16 4.80E-01 3.00E-01
N 4
N-1 3
Total 0.74 10 �^�30 �^�
1.62
�^�
�^�
�^� �^�
2010 0.31 -9 81 6561 -2.79E+00
2011 0.10 -7 49 2401 -7.00E-01
2012 0.21 7 49 2401 1.47E+00
2013 0.12 9 81 6561 1.08E+00
N 4
N-1 3
Total 0.74 0 260 17924 -9.40E-01

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 0.09 5 Pro
2015 0.13 7 �^� �^� 3
2016 0.18 9
2017 0.25 11 2
2018 0.33 13 �^� �^�
2019 0.43 15 2
2020 0.54 17
2021 0.67 19 1
2022 0.81 21
2023 0.97 23 1
2024 1.14 25
2025 1.33 27 0
2014
2015
2016
2026 1.54 29
2027 1.75 31
2028 1.99 33 Demand (metric tons)
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
3.00E-02
7.11E-04
5.23E-02
1.14E-01
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
-2.09E-01 4.38E-02
1.10E-01 1.21E-02
_� 𝐘−𝐘_�
-8.96E-02 (𝐘−𝐘_� )
8.02E-03
^�
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
Total ^�6.40E-02

𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-4.60E-02 2.54E-01 5.60E-02 3.14E-03
-4.60E-02 2.08E-01 -1.08E-01 1.17E-02
-4.60E-02 1.62E-01 4.80E-02 2.30E-03
-4.60E-02 1.16E-01 4.00E-03 1.60E-05
Total 1.71E-02

�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
�^�Y ^� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
a b c
^�
�^�Y (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
2.51E+01 6.31E-02 -3.62E-03 1.88E-03 2.48E-01 6.25E-02 3.90E-03
4.90E+00 6.31E-02 -3.62E-03 1.88E-03 1.80E-01 -8.03E-02 6.45E-03
1.03E+01 6.31E-02 -3.62E-03 1.88E-03 1.30E-01 8.03E-02 6.45E-03
9.72E+00 6.31E-02 -3.62E-03 1.88E-03 1.82E-01 -6.25E-02 3.90E-03
Total 2.07E-02
Standard
7.19E-02
5.00E+01 Deviation

�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
2021
2022
2024
2026
2027
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2023
2025
2028
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2012 0.35 0.07 0 0 0
2013 0.42 0.07 3.50E-01 4.20E-01 0.00E+00
Total
N 2
N-1 1
Standard Deviation
Total 7.70E-01

2012 0.35 0 1.2000 0 0
2013 0.42 0.2 1.2000 3.50E-01 4.20E-01
N 2
N-1 1
Total 0.77 0.2000 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
r 0.20000

2012 0.35 1 1 3.50E-01 2.80E-01
2013 0.42 2 4 8.40E-01 2.80E-01
N 2
N-1 1
Total 0.77 3 5 1.19

2012 0.35 -1 1 1 -3.50E-01
2013 0.42 1 �^� 1 1 4.20E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 0.77 0 2 2 7.00E-02

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 3.57 3 Pro
2015 9.80 5 800
2016 19.11 7 700
2017 31.50 9
600
2018 46.97 11
2019 65.52 13 500
2020 87.15 15 400

2021 111.86 17 300
2022 139.65 19 �^� �^�
200
2023 170.52 21
100
2024 204.47 23
2025 241.50 25 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 281.61 27
2027 324.80 29
2028 371.07 31
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
Standard Deviation ^�0.00E+00
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
7.00E-02 3.50E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
7.00E-02 4.20E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
Standard Deviation 0.00E+00
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
3.50E-01 0.00E+00 3.50E-02 3.85E-01 3.50E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.20E-01 𝐘_�
0.00E+00 𝐘−𝐘_�
3.50E-02 (𝐘−𝐘_� )
3.85E-01 4.20E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
^�
Total 0.00E+00
Standard
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
7.70E-01 Deviation

00
00
00
00
00
00
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
00 ^�
00
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2009 35.92 23.07 0 0 0
2010 29.75 23.07 3.59E+01 5.90E+01 -2.92E+01
2011 106.41 23.07 2.98E+01 5.28E+01 5.36E+01
2012 136.94 23.07 1.06E+02 1.29E+02 7.47E+00
2013 128.18 23.07 1.37E+02 1.60E+02 -3.18E+01
Total
N 5
N-1 4
Standard Deviation
Total 4.37E+02

2009 35.92 0 1.6570 0 0
2010 29.75 -0.1717706013 1.6570 3.59E+01 5.95E+01
2011 106.41 2.5768067227 1.6570 2.98E+01 4.93E+01
2012 136.94 0.2869091251 1.6570 1.06E+02 1.76E+02
2013 128.18 -0.0639696217 1.6570 1.37E+02 2.27E+02
N 5
N-1 4
Total 437.20 2.6280
r 0.65699

2009 35.92 1 1 3.59E+01 -7.30E-02
2010 29.75 2 4 5.95E+01 -7.30E-02
2011 106.41 3 9 3.19E+02 -7.30E-02
2012 136.94 4 16 5.48E+02 -7.30E-02
2013 128.18 5 25 6.41E+02 -7.30E-02
N 5
N-1 4
Total 437.20 15 55 1603.31

2009 35.92 -9 81 6561 -3.23E+02
2010 29.75 -7 49 2401 -2.08E+02
2011 106.41 5 25 625 5.32E+02
2012 136.94 7 49 2401 9.59E+02
2013 128.18 9 81 6561 1.15E+03
N 5
N-1 4
Total 437.20 5 285 18549 2.11E+03

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 139.21 6 Pro
2015 144.31 8 12,000,000
2016 146.64 10
2017 146.18 12 10,000,000
2018 142.94 14
2019 136.93 16 8,000,000
2020 128.14 18
6,000,000
2021 116.57 20
2022 102.22 22 4,000,000
2023 85.09 24
2024 65.18 26 2,000,000
2025 42.50 28
2026 17.04 30 0
2027 (11.21) 32
2028 (42.23) 34
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
8.55E+02 METHOD STD DV REMARKS
2.87E+03
5.57E+01
1.01E+03
4.80E+03
3.10E+01
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
-2.98E+01 8.86E+02
5.71E+01 3.26E+03
-3.94E+01 1.55E+03
-9.87E+01 9.75E+03
Total 1.54E+04
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
2.92E+01 2.91E+01 6.82E+00 4.65E+01
2.92E+01 5.83E+01 -2.85E+01 8.13E+02
2.92E+01 8.74E+01 1.90E+01 3.60E+02
2.92E+01 1.17E+02 2.03E+01 4.13E+02
2.92E+01 1.46E+02 -1.76E+01 3.10E+02
Total 1.94E+03

�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
2.91E+03 1.07E+02 7.41E+00 -3.47E-01 1.24E+01 2.35E+01 5.54E+02
1.46E+03 1.07E+02 7.41E+00 -3.47E-01 3.83E+01 -8.58E+00 7.36E+01
2.66E+03 1.07E+02 7.41E+00 -3.47E-01 1.36E+02 -2.92E+01 8.53E+02
6.71E+03 1.07E+02 7.41E+00 -3.47E-01 1.42E+02 -5.17E+00 2.67E+01
1.04E+04 1.07E+02 7.41E+00 -3.47E-01 1.46E+02 -1.76E+01 3.11E+02
Total 1.82E+03
Standard
1.91E+01
2.41E+04 Deviation

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )

2010 0.06 26.85 0 0 0
2011 50.82 26.85 6.00E-02 2.69E+01 2.39E+01
2012 130.95 26.85 5.08E+01 7.77E+01 5.33E+01
2013 80.61 26.85 1.31E+02 1.58E+02 -7.72E+01
Total
N 4
N-1 3
Standard Deviation
Total 2.62E+02
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�

2010 0.06 0 283.3974 0 0
2011 50.82 846 283.3974 6.00E-02 1.70E+01
2012 130.95 1.5767414404 283.3974 5.08E+01 1.44E+04
2013 80.61 -0.3844215349 283.3974 𝐘_𝐢−�
1.31E+02 𝐘_�
3.71E+04
N 4 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
N-1 3
Total 262.44 847.1923
r 282.39744
�^�

2010 0.06 1 1 6.00E-02 -1.48E+01
2011 50.82 2 4 1.02E+02 -1.48E+01
2012 130.95 3 9 3.93E+02 -1.48E+01
2013 80.61 4 16 3.22E+02 -1.48E+01
N 4
N-1 3
Total 262.44 10 �^�30 �^�
816.99
�^�
�^�
�^� �^�
2010 0.06 -9 81 6561 -5.40E-01
2011 50.82 -7 49 2401 -3.56E+02
2012 130.95 7 49 2401 9.17E+02
2013 80.61 9 81 6561 7.25E+02
N 4
N-1 3
Total 262.44 0 260 17924 1.29E+03

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 153.53 5 Pro
2015 125.50 7 �^� �^� 3
2016 84.85 9
2017 31.55 11 2
2018 (34.38) 13 �^� �^�
2019 (112.96) 15 2
2020 (204.16) 17
2021 (308.01) 19 1
2022 (424.49) 21
2023 (553.62) 23 1
2024 (695.37) 25
2025 (849.77) 27 0
2014
2015
2016
2026 (1,016.80) 29
2027 (1,196.48) 31
2028 (1,388.78) 33 Demand (metric tons)
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
2.84E+03
5.96E+03
9.37E+03
4.84E+01
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
3.38E+01 1.14E+03
-1.43E+04 2.04E+08
_� 𝐘−𝐘_�
-3.70E+04 (𝐘−𝐘_� )
1.37E+09
^�
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
Total ^�1.57E+09

𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
3.22E+01 1.73E+01 -1.73E+01 2.99E+02
3.22E+01 4.95E+01 1.30E+00 1.69E+00
3.22E+01 8.17E+01 4.93E+01 2.43E+03
3.22E+01 1.14E+02 -3.33E+01 1.11E+03
Total 3.83E+03

�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
�^�Y ^� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
a b c
^�
�^�Y (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
4.86E+00 1.68E+02 4.95E+00 -1.58E+00 -4.18E+00 4.24E+00 1.79E+01
2.49E+03 1.68E+02 4.95E+00 -1.58E+00 5.63E+01 -5.45E+00 2.97E+01
6.42E+03 1.68E+02 4.95E+00 -1.58E+00 1.26E+02 5.45E+00 2.97E+01
6.53E+03 1.68E+02 4.95E+00 -1.58E+00 8.48E+01 -4.24E+00 1.79E+01
Total 9.52E+01
Standard
4.88E+00
1.54E+04 Deviation

�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
2021
2022
2024
2026
2027
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2023
2025
2028
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2009 1.50 1.49 0 0 0
2010 4.48 1.49 1.50E+00 2.99E+00 1.49E+00
2011 0.25 1.49 4.48E+00 5.97E+00 -5.72E+00
2012 55.10 1.49 2.50E-01 1.74E+00 5.34E+01
2013 7.45 1.49 5.51E+01 5.66E+01 -4.91E+01
Total
N 5
N-1 4
Standard Deviation
Total 6.88E+01

2009 1.50 0 55.8944 0 0
2010 4.48 1.9866666667 55.8944 1.50E+00 8.38E+01
2011 0.25 -0.9441964286 55.8944 4.48E+00 2.50E+02
2012 55.10 219.4 55.8944 2.50E-01 1.40E+01
2013 7.45 -0.8647912886 55.8944 5.51E+01 3.08E+03
N 5
N-1 4
Total 68.78 219.5777
r 54.89442

2009 1.50 1 1 1.50E+00 -5.00E+00
2010 4.48 2 4 8.96E+00 -5.00E+00
2011 0.25 3 9 7.50E-01 -5.00E+00
2012 55.10 4 16 2.20E+02 -5.00E+00
2013 7.45 5 25 3.73E+01 -5.00E+00
N 5
N-1 4
Total 68.78 15 55 268.86

2009 1.50 -9 81 6561 -1.35E+01
2010 4.48 -7 49 2401 -3.14E+01
2011 0.25 5 25 625 1.25E+00
2012 55.10 7 49 2401 3.86E+02
2013 7.45 9 81 6561 6.71E+01
N 5
N-1 4
Total 68.78 5 285 18549 4.09E+02

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 24.83 6 Pro
2015 24.42 8 12,000,000
2016 23.08 10
2017 20.79 12 10,000,000
2018 17.57 14
2019 13.42 16 8,000,000
2020 8.33 18
6,000,000
2021 2.30 20
2022 (4.67) 22 4,000,000
2023 (12.57) 24
2024 (21.42) 26 2,000,000
2025 (31.19) 28
2026 (41.91) 30 0
2027 (53.56) 32
2028 (66.15) 34
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
3.27E+01
2.85E+03
2.41E+03
5.30E+03
3.25E+01
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
-7.94E+01 6.30E+03
-2.50E+02 6.26E+04
4.11E+01 1.69E+03
-3.07E+03 9.44E+06
Total 9.51E+06
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
6.25E+00 1.25E+00 2.48E-01 6.15E-02
6.25E+00 7.50E+00 -3.02E+00 9.14E+00
6.25E+00 1.38E+01 -1.35E+01 1.82E+02
6.25E+00 2.00E+01 3.51E+01 1.23E+03
6.25E+00 2.63E+01 -1.88E+01 3.54E+02
Total 1.78E+03

�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
1.22E+02 2.04E+01 1.44E+00 -1.17E-01 -1.98E+00 3.48E+00 1.21E+01
2.20E+02 2.04E+01 1.44E+00 -1.17E-01 4.64E+00 -1.64E-01 2.69E-02
6.25E+00 2.04E+01 1.44E+00 -1.17E-01 2.47E+01 -2.44E+01 5.97E+02
2.70E+03 2.04E+01 1.44E+00 -1.17E-01 2.47E+01 3.04E+01 9.22E+02
6.03E+02 2.04E+01 1.44E+00 -1.17E-01 2.39E+01 -1.64E+01 2.69E+02
Total 1.80E+03
Standard
1.90E+01
3.65E+03 Deviation

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )

2011 2.93 -1.25 0 0 0
2012 0.65 -1.25 2.93E+00 1.68E+00 -1.03E+00
2013 0.43 -1.25 6.50E-01 -6.00E-01 1.03E+00
Total
N 3
N-1 2
Standard Deviation
Total 4.01E+00

2011 2.93 0 0.4417 0 0
2012 0.65 -0.7781569966 0.4417 2.93E+00 1.29E+00
2013 0.43 -0.3384615385 0.4417 6.50E-01 2.87E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 4.01 -1.1166
r -0.55831

2011 2.93 1 1 2.93E+00 3.84E+00
2012 0.65 2 4 1.30E+00 3.84E+00
2013 0.43 3 9 1.29E+00 3.84E+00
N 3
N-1 2
Total 4.01 6 14 5.52

2011 2.93 -1 1 1 -2.93E+00
2012 0.65 0 0 0 0.00E+00
2013 0.43 1 1 1 4.30E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 4.01 0 2 2 -2.50E+00

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 12.13 4 Pro
2015 30.23 6 100
2016 56.57 8 90
2017 91.15 10 80
2018 133.97 12 70
2019 185.03 14 60
2020 244.33 16 50
2021 311.87 18 40
2022 387.65 20 30
2023 471.67 22 20
2024 563.93 24 10
2025 664.43 26 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 773.17 28
2027 890.15 30
2028 1,015.37 32
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
1.06E+00
2.12E+00
8.41E-01
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
-6.44E-01 4.15E-01
1.43E-01 2.04E-02
Total 4.35E-01
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-1.25E+00 2.59E+00 3.43E-01 1.18E-01
-1.25E+00 1.34E+00 -6.87E-01 4.72E-01
-1.25E+00 8.67E-02 3.43E-01 1.18E-01
Total 7.07E-01
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
2.93E+00 6.50E-01 -1.25E+00 1.03E+00 2.93E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 6.50E-01 -1.25E+00 1.03E+00 6.50E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
4.30E-01 6.50E-01 -1.25E+00 1.03E+00 4.30E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 3.73E-31
Standard
3.53E-16
3.36E+00 Deviation

00
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year
−𝐘_� )

2012 4.38 0.89 0 0 0
2013 5.27 0.89 4.38E+00 5.27E+00 0.00E+00
Total
N 2
N-1 1
Standard Deviation
Total 9.65E+00

2012 4.38 0 1.2032 0 0
2013 5.27 0.203196347 1.2032 4.38E+00 5.27E+00
N 2
N-1 1
Total 9.65 0.2032 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
r 0.20320

2012 4.38 1 1 4.38E+00 3.49E+00
2013 5.27 2 4 1.05E+01 3.49E+00
N 2
N-1 1
Total 9.65 3 5 14.92

2012 4.38 -1 1 1 -4.38E+00
2013 5.27 1 �^� 1 1 5.27E+00
N 3
N-1 2
Total 9.65 0 2 2 8.90E-01

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 44.76 3 Pro
2015 122.85 5 800
2016 239.54 7 700
2017 394.83 9
600
2018 588.72 11
2019 821.21 13 500
2020 1,092.30 15 400

2021 1,401.99 17 300
2022 1,750.28 19 �^� �^�
200
2023 2,137.17 21
100
2024 2,562.66 23
2025 3,026.75 25 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 3,529.44 27
2027 4,070.73 29
2028 4,650.62 31
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
8.90E-01 4.38E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
8.90E-01 5.27E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
4.38E+00 0.00E+00 4.45E-01 4.83E+00 4.38E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
5.27E+00 𝐘_�
0.00E+00 𝐘−𝐘_�
4.45E-01 (𝐘−𝐘_� )
4.83E+00 5.27E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
^�
Total 0.00E+00
Standard
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
9.65E+00 Deviation

00
00
00
00
00
00
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
00 ^�
00
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2012 0.13 0.07 0 0 0
2013 0.2 0.07 1.30E-01 2.00E-01 0.00E+00
Total
N 2
N-1 1
Standard Deviation
Total 3.30E-01

2012 0.13 0 1.5385 0 0
2013 0.20 0.5384615385 1.5385 1.30E-01 2.00E-01
N 2
N-1 1
Total 0.33 0.5385 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
r 0.53846

2012 0.13 1 1 1.30E-01 6.00E-02
2013 0.20 2 4 4.00E-01 6.00E-02
N 2
N-1 1
Total 0.33 3 5 0.53

2012 0.13 -1 1 1 -1.30E-01
2013 0.20 1 �^� 1 1 2.00E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 0.33 0 2 2 7.00E-02

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 1.59 3 Pro
2015 4.30 5 800
2016 8.33 7 700
2017 13.68 9
600
2018 20.35 11
2019 28.34 13 500
2020 37.65 15 400

2021 48.28 17 300
2022 60.23 19 �^� �^�
200
2023 73.50 21
100
2024 88.09 23
2025 104.00 25 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 121.23 27
2027 139.78 29
2028 159.65 31
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
7.00E-02 1.30E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
7.00E-02 2.00E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
1.30E-01 0.00E+00 3.50E-02 1.65E-01 1.30E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.00E-01 𝐘_�
0.00E+00 𝐘−𝐘_�
3.50E-02 (𝐘−𝐘_� )
1.65E-01 2.00E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
^�
Total 0.00E+00
Standard
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.30E-01 Deviation

00
00
00
00
00
00
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
00 ^�
00
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2011 41.56 -12.76 0 0 0
2012 39.64 -12.76 4.16E+01 2.88E+01 1.08E+01
2013 16.04 -12.76 3.96E+01 2.69E+01 -1.08E+01
Total
N 3
N-1 2
Standard Deviation
Total 9.72E+01

2011 41.56 0 0.6792 0 0
2012 39.64 -0.0461982676 0.6792 4.16E+01 2.82E+01
2013 16.04 -0.595358224 0.6792 3.96E+01 2.69E+01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 97.24 -0.6416
r -0.32078

2011 41.56 1 1 4.16E+01 5.79E+01
2012 39.64 2 4 7.93E+01 5.79E+01
2013 16.04 3 9 4.81E+01 5.79E+01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 97.24 6 14 168.96

2011 41.56 -1 1 1 -4.16E+01
2012 39.64 0 0 0 0.00E+00
2013 16.04 1 1 1 1.60E+01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 97.24 0 2 2 -2.55E+01

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 (184.84) 4 Pro
2015 (427.16) 6 100
2016 (756.20) 8 90
2017 (1,171.96) 10 80
2018 (1,674.44) 12 70
2019 (2,263.64) 14 60
2020 (2,939.56) 16 50
2021 (3,702.20) 18 40
2022 (4,551.56) 20 30
2023 (5,487.64) 22 20
2024 (6,510.44) 24 10
2025 (7,619.96) 26 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 (8,816.20) 28
2027 (10,099.16) 30
2028 (11,468.84) 32
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
1.18E+02
2.35E+02
8.85E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
1.14E+01 1.30E+02
-1.09E+01 1.18E+02
Total 2.49E+02
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-1.28E+01 4.52E+01 -3.61E+00 1.31E+01
-1.28E+01 3.24E+01 7.23E+00 5.22E+01
-1.28E+01 1.97E+01 -3.61E+00 1.31E+01
Total 7.83E+01
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
4.16E+01 3.96E+01 -1.28E+01 -1.08E+01 4.16E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.96E+01 -1.28E+01 -1.08E+01 3.96E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.60E+01 3.96E+01 -1.28E+01 -1.08E+01 1.60E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
Standard
0.00E+00
5.76E+01 Deviation

00
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year
−𝐘_� )

2010 1.43 2.59 0 0 0
2011 0.11 2.59 1.43E+00 4.02E+00 -3.91E+00
2012 7.29 2.59 1.10E-01 2.70E+00 4.59E+00
2013 9.2 2.59 7.29E+00 9.88E+00 -6.80E-01
Total
N 4
N-1 3
Standard Deviation
Total 1.80E+01

2010 1.43 0 22.5372 0 0
2011 0.11 -0.9230769231 22.5372 1.43E+00 3.22E+01
2012 7.29 65.2727272727 22.5372 1.10E-01 2.48E+00
2013 9.20 0.2620027435 22.5372 7.29E+00 1.64E+02
N 4 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
N-1 3
Total 18.03 64.6117
r 21.53722

2010 1.43 1 1 1.43E+00 -3.12E+00
2011 0.11 2 4 2.20E-01 -3.12E+00
2012 7.29 3 9 2.19E+01 -3.12E+00
2013 9.20 4 16 3.68E+01 -3.12E+00
N 4
N-1 3
Total 18.03 10 30 60.32

�^�
�^� �^�
2010 1.43 -9 81 6561 -1.29E+01
2011 0.11 -7 49 2401 -7.70E-01
2012 7.29 7 49 2401 5.10E+01
2013 9.20 9 81 6561 8.28E+01
N 4
N-1 3
Total 18.03 0 260 17924 1.20E+02

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 4.80 5 Pro
2015 6.94 7 10
2016 9.48 9
2017 12.42 11 0
2015
2014
2016
2018 15.77 13 �^� �^�
2019 19.52 15 -10
2020 23.67 17
-20
2021 28.23 19
2022 33.19 21 -30
2023 38.56 23
2024 44.33 25 -40
2025 50.50 27
2026 57.08 29 -50
2027 64.06 31
2028 71.44 33 Demand (metric tons)
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
2.11E+01
4.62E-01
3.68E+01
3.03E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
-3.21E+01 1.03E+03
4.81E+00 2.31E+01
-1.55E+02 2.41E+04
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
Total ^�2.51E+04
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
3.05E+00 -6.60E-02 1.50E+00 2.24E+00
3.05E+00 2.98E+00 -2.87E+00 8.25E+00
3.05E+00 6.03E+00 1.26E+00 1.58E+00
3.05E+00 9.08E+00 1.19E-01 1.42E-02
Total 1.21E+01
𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

�^�Y ^� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
a b c
^�
�^�Y (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
1.16E+02 1.23E+00 4.62E-01 5.05E-02 1.15E+00 2.75E-01 7.59E-02
5.39E+00 1.23E+00 4.62E-01 5.05E-02 4.64E-01 -3.54E-01 1.25E-01
3.57E+02 1.23E+00 4.62E-01 5.05E-02 6.94E+00 3.54E-01 1.25E-01
7.45E+02 1.23E+00 4.62E-01 5.05E-02 9.48E+00 -2.75E-01 7.59E-02
Total 4.03E-01
Standard
3.17E-01
1.22E+03 Deviation

10
0
2015
2017
2019
2022
2024
2026
2028
2014
2016
2018
2020
2021
2023
2025
2027
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
10 ^�
20
30
40
50
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2010 2.08 10.44 0 0 0
2011 128.4 10.44 2.08E+00 1.25E+01 1.16E+02
2012 229.07 10.44 1.28E+02 1.39E+02 9.02E+01
2013 33.39 10.44 2.29E+02 2.40E+02 -2.06E+02
Total
N 4
N-1 3
Standard Deviation
Total 3.93E+02

2010 2.08 0 21.2202 0 0
2011 128.40 60.7307692308 21.2202 2.08E+00 4.41E+01
2012 229.07 0.7840342679 21.2202 1.28E+02 2.72E+03
2013 33.39 -0.8542366962 21.2202 2.29E+02 4.86E+03
N 4 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
N-1 3
Total 392.94 60.6606
r 20.22019

2010 2.08 1 1 2.08E+00 4.96E+01
2011 128.40 2 4 2.57E+02 4.96E+01
2012 229.07 3 9 6.87E+02 4.96E+01
2013 33.39 4 16 1.34E+02 4.96E+01
N 4
N-1 3
Total 392.94 10 30 1079.65

�^�
�^� �^�
2010 2.08 -9 81 6561 -1.87E+01
2011 128.40 -7 49 2401 -8.99E+02
2012 229.07 7 49 2401 1.60E+03
2013 33.39 9 81 6561 3.01E+02
N 4
N-1 3
Total 392.94 0 260 17924 9.86E+02

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 318.46 5 Pro
2015 205.29 7 10
2016 51.88 9
2017 (141.78) 11 0
2015
2014
2016
2018 (375.69) 13 �^� �^�
2019 (649.85) 15 -10
2020 (964.26) 17
-20
2021 (1,318.93) 19
2022 (1,713.84) 21 -30
2023 (2,149.00) 23
2024 (2,624.41) 25 -40
2025 (3,140.07) 27
2026 (3,695.98) 29 -50
2027 (4,292.15) 31
2028 (4,928.56) 33 Demand (metric tons)
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
8.14E+03
4.25E+04
6.41E+04
1.27E+02
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
8.43E+01 7.10E+03
-2.50E+03 6.23E+06
-4.83E+03 2.33E+07
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
Total ^�2.95E+07
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
1.95E+01 6.90E+01 -6.70E+01 4.48E+03
1.95E+01 8.85E+01 3.99E+01 1.59E+03
1.95E+01 1.08E+02 1.21E+02 1.47E+04
1.95E+01 1.27E+02 -9.40E+01 8.84E+03
Total 2.96E+04
𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

�^�Y ^� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
a b c
^�
�^�Y (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
1.68E+02 4.25E+02 3.79E+00 -5.03E+00 -1.64E+01 1.85E+01 3.42E+02
6.29E+03 4.25E+02 3.79E+00 -5.03E+00 1.52E+02 -2.38E+01 5.65E+02
1.12E+04 4.25E+02 3.79E+00 -5.03E+00 2.05E+02 2.38E+01 5.65E+02
2.70E+03 4.25E+02 3.79E+00 -5.03E+00 5.19E+01 -1.85E+01 3.42E+02
Total 1.81E+03
Standard
2.13E+01
2.04E+04 Deviation

10
0
2015
2017
2019
2022
2024
2026
2028
2014
2016
2018
2020
2021
2023
2025
2027
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
10 ^�
20
30
40
50
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2011 0.28 0.75 0 0 0
2012 7.56 0.75 2.80E-01 1.03E+00 6.53E+00
2013 1.78 0.75 7.56E+00 8.31E+00 -6.53E+00
Total
N 3
N-1 2
Standard Deviation
Total 9.62E+00

2011 0.28 0 13.6177 0 0
2012 7.56 26 13.6177 2.80E-01 3.81E+00
2013 1.78 -0.7645502646 13.6177 7.56E+00 1.03E+02
N 3
N-1 2
Total 9.62 25.2354
r 12.61772

2011 0.28 1 1 2.80E-01 1.71E+00
2012 7.56 2 4 1.51E+01 1.71E+00
2013 1.78 3 9 5.34E+00 1.71E+00
N 3
N-1 2
Total 9.62 6 14 20.74

2011 0.28 -1 1 1 -2.80E-01
2012 7.56 0 0 0 0.00E+00
2013 1.78 1 1 1 1.78E+00
N 3
N-1 2
Total 9.62 0 2 2 1.50E+00

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 (93.92) 4 Pro
2015 (223.02) 6 100
2016 (404.36) 8 90
2017 (637.94) 10 80
2018 (923.76) 12 70
2019 (1,261.82) 14 60
2020 (1,652.12) 16 50
2021 (2,094.66) 18 40
2022 (2,589.44) 20 30
2023 (3,136.46) 22 20
2024 (3,735.72) 24 10
2025 (4,387.22) 26 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 (5,090.96) 28
2027 (5,846.94) 30
2028 (6,655.16) 32
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
4.26E+01
8.53E+01
5.33E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
3.75E+00 1.40E+01
-1.01E+02 1.02E+04
Total 1.02E+04
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
7.50E-01 2.46E+00 -2.18E+00 4.74E+00
7.50E-01 3.21E+00 4.35E+00 1.90E+01
7.50E-01 3.96E+00 -2.18E+00 4.74E+00
Total 2.84E+01
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
2.80E-01 7.56E+00 7.50E-01 -6.53E+00 2.80E-01 6.66E-16 4.44E-31
0.00E+00 7.56E+00 7.50E-01 -6.53E+00 7.56E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.78E+00 7.56E+00 7.50E-01 -6.53E+00 1.78E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 4.44E-31
Standard
3.85E-16
2.06E+00 Deviation

00
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year
−𝐘_� )

2009 0.85 0.35 0 0 0
2010 0.34 0.35 8.50E-01 1.20E+00 -8.63E-01
2011 2.80 0.35 3.40E-01 6.93E-01 2.11E+00
2012 5.33 0.35 2.80E+00 3.15E+00 2.18E+00
2013 2.26 0.35 5.33E+00 5.68E+00 -3.42E+00
Total
N 5
N-1 4
Standard Deviation
Total 1.16E+01

2009 0.85 0 2.7407 0 0
2010 0.34 -0.6 2.7407 8.50E-01 2.33E+00
2011 2.80 7.2352941176 2.7407 3.40E-01 9.32E-01
2012 5.33 0.9035714286 2.7407 2.80E+00 7.67E+00
2013 2.26 -0.5759849906 2.7407 5.33E+00 1.46E+01
N 5
N-1 4
Total 11.58 6.9629
r 1.74072

2009 0.85 1 1 8.50E-01 -2.70E-02
2010 0.34 2 4 6.80E-01 -2.70E-02
2011 2.80 3 9 8.40E+00 -2.70E-02
2012 5.33 4 16 2.13E+01 -2.70E-02
2013 2.26 5 25 1.13E+01 -2.70E-02
N 5
N-1 4
Total 11.58 15 55 42.55

2009 0.85 -9 81 6561 -7.65E+00
2010 0.34 -7 49 2401 -2.38E+00
2011 2.80 5 25 625 1.40E+01
2012 5.33 7 49 2401 3.73E+01
2013 2.26 9 81 6561 2.03E+01
N 5
N-1 4
Total 11.58 5 285 18549 6.16E+01

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 4.16 6 Pro
2015 3.86 8 12,000,000
2016 3.35 10
2017 2.63 12 10,000,000
2018 1.70 14
2019 0.57 16 8,000,000
2020 (0.78) 18
6,000,000
2021 (2.34) 20
2022 (4.11) 22 4,000,000
2023 (6.08) 24
2024 (8.27) 26 2,000,000
2025 (10.66) 28
2026 (13.27) 30 0
2027 (16.08) 32
2028 (19.11) 34
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
4.44E+00
4.74E+00
1.17E+01
2.16E+01
2.08E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
-1.99E+00 3.96E+00
1.87E+00 3.49E+00
-2.34E+00 5.49E+00
-1.23E+01 1.52E+02
Total 1.65E+02
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
7.81E-01 7.54E-01 9.60E-02 9.22E-03
7.81E-01 1.54E+00 -1.20E+00 1.43E+00
7.81E-01 2.32E+00 4.84E-01 2.34E-01
7.81E-01 3.10E+00 2.23E+00 4.99E+00
7.81E-01 3.88E+00 -1.62E+00 2.62E+00
Total 9.28E+00

�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
6.89E+01 3.81E+00 2.16E-01 -2.62E-02 -2.58E-01 1.11E+00 1.23E+00
1.67E+01 3.81E+00 2.16E-01 -2.62E-02 1.01E+00 -6.72E-01 4.52E-01
7.00E+01 3.81E+00 2.16E-01 -2.62E-02 4.23E+00 -1.43E+00 2.06E+00
2.61E+02 3.81E+00 2.16E-01 -2.62E-02 4.04E+00 1.29E+00 1.67E+00
1.83E+02 3.81E+00 2.16E-01 -2.62E-02 3.63E+00 -1.37E+00 1.89E+00
Total 7.29E+00
Standard
1.21E+00
6.00E+02 Deviation

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )

2012 2.57 -1.68 0 0 0
2013 0.89 -1.68 2.57E+00 8.90E-01 0.00E+00
Total
N 2
N-1 1
Standard Deviation
Total 3.46E+00

2012 2.57 0 0.3463 0 0
2013 0.89 -0.6536964981 0.3463 2.57E+00 8.90E-01
N 2
N-1 1
Total 3.46 -0.6537 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
r -0.65370

2012 2.57 1 1 2.57E+00 4.25E+00
2013 0.89 2 4 1.78E+00 4.25E+00
N 2
N-1 1
Total 3.46 3 5 4.35

2012 2.57 -1 1 1 -2.57E+00
2013 0.89 1 �^� 1 1 8.90E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 3.46 0 2 2 -1.68E+00

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 13.05 3 Pro
2015 39.05 5 800
2016 78.89 7 700
2017 132.57 9
600
2018 200.09 11
2019 281.45 13 500
2020 376.65 15 400

2021 485.69 17 300
2022 608.57 19 �^� �^�
200
2023 745.29 21
100
2024 895.85 23
2025 1,060.25 25 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 1,238.49 27
2027 1,430.57 29
2028 1,636.49 31
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-1.68E+00 2.57E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
-1.68E+00 8.90E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 5.44E-30
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
2.57E+00 0.00E+00 -8.40E-01 1.73E+00 2.57E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
8.90E-01 𝐘_�
0.00E+00 𝐘−𝐘_�
-8.40E-01 (𝐘−𝐘_� )
1.73E+00 8.90E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
^�
Total 0.00E+00
Standard
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
3.46E+00 Deviation

00
00
00
00
00
00
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
00 ^�
00
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2009 1.25 5.08 0 0 0
2010 2.35 5.08 1.25E+00 6.33E+00 -3.98E+00
2011 83.72 5.08 2.35E+00 7.43E+00 7.63E+01
2012 84.23 5.08 8.37E+01 8.88E+01 -4.57E+00
2013 21.55 5.08 8.42E+01 8.93E+01 -6.78E+01
Total
N 5
N-1 4
Standard Deviation
Total 1.93E+02

2009 1.25 0 9.6919 0 0
2010 2.35 0.88 9.6919 1.25E+00 1.21E+01
2011 83.72 34.6255319149 9.6919 2.35E+00 2.28E+01
2012 84.23 0.0060917344 9.6919 8.37E+01 8.11E+02
2013 21.55 -0.7441529146 9.6919 8.42E+01 8.16E+02
N 5
N-1 4
Total 193.10 34.7675
r 8.69187

2009 1.25 1 1 1.25E+00 1.88E+00
2010 2.35 2 4 4.70E+00 1.88E+00
2011 83.72 3 9 2.51E+02 1.88E+00
2012 84.23 4 16 3.37E+02 1.88E+00
2013 21.55 5 25 1.08E+02 1.88E+00
N 5
N-1 4
Total 193.10 15 55 701.78

2009 1.25 -9 81 6561 -1.13E+01
2010 2.35 -7 49 2401 -1.65E+01
2011 83.72 5 25 625 4.19E+02
2012 84.23 7 49 2401 5.90E+02
2013 21.55 9 81 6561 1.94E+02
N 5
N-1 4
Total 193.10 5 285 18549 1.17E+03

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 89.09 6 Pro
2015 63.01 8 12,000,000
2016 27.12 10
2017 (18.58) 12 10,000,000
2018 (74.09) 14
2019 (139.40) 16 8,000,000
2020 (214.52) 18
6,000,000
2021 (299.45) 20
2022 (394.18) 22 4,000,000
2023 (498.72) 24
2024 (613.07) 26 2,000,000
2025 (737.23) 28
2026 (871.19) 30 0
2027 (1,014.96) 32
2028 (1,168.54) 34
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
5.82E+03
2.08E+01
4.59E+03
1.04E+04
4.57E+01
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
-9.76E+00 9.54E+01
6.09E+01 3.71E+03
-7.27E+02 5.29E+05
-7.95E+02 6.32E+05
Total 1.16E+06
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
1.22E+01 1.41E+01 -1.29E+01 1.66E+02
1.22E+01 2.64E+01 -2.40E+01 5.77E+02
1.22E+01 3.86E+01 4.51E+01 2.03E+03
1.22E+01 5.09E+01 3.34E+01 1.11E+03
1.22E+01 6.31E+01 -4.16E+01 1.73E+03
Total 5.62E+03

�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
1.01E+02 1.08E+02 4.12E+00 -1.23E+00 -2.79E+01 2.91E+01 8.49E+02
1.15E+02 1.08E+02 4.12E+00 -1.23E+00 1.96E+01 -1.72E+01 2.97E+02
2.09E+03 1.08E+02 4.12E+00 -1.23E+00 9.85E+01 -1.47E+01 2.17E+02
4.13E+03 1.08E+02 4.12E+00 -1.23E+00 7.73E+01 6.96E+00 4.84E+01
1.75E+03 1.08E+02 4.12E+00 -1.23E+00 4.63E+01 -2.47E+01 6.12E+02
Total 2.02E+03
Standard
2.01E+01
8.18E+03 Deviation

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )

2010 0.79 0.28 0 0 0
2011 16.46 0.28 7.90E-01 1.07E+00 1.54E+01
2012 4.91 0.28 1.65E+01 1.67E+01 -1.18E+01
2013 1.64 0.28 4.91E+00 5.19E+00 -3.55E+00
Total
N 4
N-1 3
Standard Deviation
Total 2.38E+01

2010 0.79 0 7.1559 0 0
2011 16.46 19.835443038 7.1559 7.90E-01 5.65E+00
2012 4.91 -0.7017010936 7.1559 1.65E+01 1.18E+02
2013 1.64 -0.66598778 7.1559 4.91E+00 3.51E+01
N 4 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
N-1 3
Total 23.80 18.4678
r 6.15592

2010 0.79 1 1 7.90E-01 8.20E+00
2011 16.46 2 4 3.29E+01 8.20E+00
2012 4.91 3 9 1.47E+01 8.20E+00
2013 1.64 4 16 6.56E+00 8.20E+00
N 4
N-1 3
Total 23.80 10 30 55

�^�
�^� �^�
2010 0.79 -9 81 6561 -7.11E+00
2011 16.46 -7 49 2401 -1.15E+02
2012 4.91 7 49 2401 3.44E+01
2013 1.64 9 81 6561 1.48E+01
N 4
N-1 3
Total 23.80 0 260 17924 -7.32E+01

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 16.38 5 Pro
2015 8.71 7 10
2016 (1.32) 9
2017 (13.72) 11 0
2015
2014
2016
2018 (28.49) 13 �^� �^�
2019 (45.62) 15 -10
2020 (65.13) 17
-20
2021 (87.00) 19
2022 (111.23) 21 -30
2023 (137.84) 23
2024 (166.81) 25 -40
2025 (198.15) 27
2026 (231.86) 29 -50
2027 (267.94) 31
2028 (306.38) 33 Demand (metric tons)
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
1.40E+02
1.26E+01
3.89E+02
9.87E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
1.08E+01 1.17E+02
-1.13E+02 1.27E+04
-3.35E+01 1.12E+03
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
Total ^�1.40E+04
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-9.00E-01 7.30E+00 -6.51E+00 4.24E+01
-9.00E-01 6.40E+00 1.01E+01 1.01E+02
-9.00E-01 5.50E+00 -5.90E-01 3.48E-01
-9.00E-01 4.60E+00 -2.96E+00 8.76E+00
Total 1.53E+02
𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

�^�Y ^� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
a b c
^�
�^�Y (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
6.40E+01 2.52E+01 -2.82E-01 -2.96E-01 3.75E+00 -2.96E+00 8.75E+00
8.07E+02 2.52E+01 -2.82E-01 -2.96E-01 1.27E+01 3.80E+00 1.45E+01
2.41E+02 2.52E+01 -2.82E-01 -2.96E-01 8.71E+00 -3.80E+00 1.45E+01
1.33E+02 2.52E+01 -2.82E-01 -2.96E-01 -1.32E+00 2.96E+00 8.75E+00
Total 4.65E+01
Standard
3.41E+00
1.24E+03 Deviation

10
0
2015
2017
2019
2022
2024
2026
2028
2014
2016
2018
2020
2021
2023
2025
2027
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
10 ^�
20
30
40
50
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2011 0.04 0.31 0 0 0
2012 0.27 0.31 4.00E-02 3.45E-01 -7.50E-02
2013 0.65 0.31 2.70E-01 5.75E-01 7.50E-02
Total
N 3
N-1 2
Standard Deviation
Total 9.60E-01

2011 0.04 0 4.5787 0 0
2012 0.27 5.75 4.5787 4.00E-02 1.83E-01
2013 0.65 1.4074074074 4.5787 2.70E-01 1.24E+00
N 3
N-1 2
Total 0.96 7.1574
r 3.57870

2011 0.04 1 1 4.00E-02 -2.90E-01
2012 0.27 2 4 5.40E-01 -2.90E-01
2013 0.65 3 9 1.95E+00 -2.90E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 0.96 6 14 2.53

2011 0.04 -1 1 1 -4.00E-02
2012 0.27 0 0 0 0.00E+00
2013 0.65 1 1 1 6.50E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 0.96 0 2 2 6.10E-01

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 2.69 4 Pro
2015 4.80 6 100
2016 7.51 8 90
2017 10.82 10 80
2018 14.73 12 70
2019 19.24 14 60
2020 24.35 16 50
2021 30.06 18 40
2022 36.37 20 30
2023 43.28 22 20
2024 50.79 24 10
2025 58.90 26 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 67.61 28
2027 76.92 30
2028 86.83 32
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
5.63E-03
1.13E-02
6.12E-02
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
8.69E-02 7.54E-03
-5.86E-01 3.44E-01
Total 3.51E-01
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
3.05E-01 1.50E-02 2.50E-02 6.25E-04
3.05E-01 3.20E-01 -5.00E-02 2.50E-03
3.05E-01 6.25E-01 2.50E-02 6.25E-04
Total 3.75E-03
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
4.00E-02 2.70E-01 3.05E-01 7.50E-02 4.00E-02 -9.02E-17 8.14E-33
0.00E+00 2.70E-01 3.05E-01 7.50E-02 2.70E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
6.50E-01 2.70E-01 3.05E-01 7.50E-02 6.50E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 8.14E-33
Standard
5.21E-17
6.90E-01 Deviation

00
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year
−𝐘_� )

2010 0.31 -0.01 0 0 0
2011 2.93 -0.01 3.10E-01 2.97E-01 2.63E+00
2012 0.27 -0.01 2.93E+00 2.92E+00 -2.65E+00
2013 0.27 -0.01 2.70E-01 2.57E-01 1.33E-02
Total
N 4
N-1 3
Standard Deviation
Total 3.78E+00

2010 0.31 0 3.5146 0 0
2011 2.93 8.4516129032 3.5146 3.10E-01 1.09E+00
2012 0.27 -0.9078498294 3.5146 2.93E+00 1.03E+01
2013 0.27 0 3.5146 2.70E-01 9.49E-01
N 4
N-1 3
Total 3.78 7.5438
r 2.51459

2010 0.31 1 1 3.10E-01 1.64E+00
2011 2.93 2 4 5.86E+00 1.64E+00
2012 0.27 3 9 8.10E-01 1.64E+00
2013 0.27 4 16 1.08E+00 1.64E+00
N 4
N-1 3
Total 3.78 10 30 8.06

�^� �^�
2010 0.31 -9 81 6561 -2.79E+00
2011 2.93 -7 49 2401 -2.05E+01
2012 0.27 7 49 2401 1.89E+00
2013 0.27 9 81 6561 2.43E+00
N 4
N-1 3
Total 3.78 0 260 17924 -1.90E+01

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 2.22 5 Pro
2015 1.09 7 10
2016 (0.37) 9
2017 (2.15) 11 0
2015
2014
2016
2018 (4.26) 13
2019 (6.70) 15 -10
2020 (9.47) 17
-20
2021 (12.56) 19
2022 (15.98) 21 -30
2023 (19.73) 23
2024 (23.81) 25 -40
2025 (28.21) 27
2026 (32.94) 29 -50
2027 (38.00) 31
2028 (43.38) 33
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
7.00E+00
1.78E-04
1.39E+01
1.87E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
1.84E+00 3.39E+00
-1.00E+01 1.01E+02
-6.79E-01 4.61E-01
Total 1.04E+02
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-2.78E-01 1.36E+00 -1.05E+00 1.11E+00
-2.78E-01 1.08E+00 1.85E+00 3.41E+00
-2.78E-01 8.06E-01 -5.36E-01 2.87E-01
-2.78E-01 5.28E-01 -2.58E-01 6.66E-02
Total 4.87E+00
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
�^�Y (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
2.51E+01 3.61E+00 -7.30E-02 -4.09E-02 9.47E-01 -6.37E-01 4.06E-01
1.44E+02 3.61E+00 -7.30E-02 -4.09E-02 2.11E+00 8.19E-01 6.71E-01
1.32E+01 3.61E+00 -7.30E-02 -4.09E-02 1.09E+00 -8.19E-01 6.71E-01
2.19E+01 3.61E+00 -7.30E-02 -4.09E-02 -3.67E-01 6.37E-01 4.06E-01
Total 2.15E+00
Standard
7.34E-01
2.04E+02 Deviation

10
0
2015
2017
2019
2022
2024
2026
2028
2014
2016
2018
2020
2021
2023
2025
2027
10
20
30
40
50
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2010 0.68 1.09 0 0 0
2011 20.39 1.09 6.80E-01 1.77E+00 1.86E+01
2012 2.72 1.09 2.04E+01 2.15E+01 -1.88E+01
2013 3.96 1.09 2.72E+00 3.81E+00 1.47E-01
Total
N 4
N-1 3
Standard Deviation
Total 2.78E+01

2010 0.68 0 10.5249 0 0
2011 20.39 28.9852941176 10.5249 6.80E-01 7.16E+00
2012 2.72 -0.8666012751 10.5249 2.04E+01 2.15E+02
2013 3.96 0.4558823529 10.5249 2.72E+00 2.86E+01
N 4 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
N-1 3
Total 27.75 28.5746
r 9.52486

2010 0.68 1 1 6.80E-01 8.90E+00
2011 20.39 2 4 4.08E+01 8.90E+00
2012 2.72 3 9 8.16E+00 8.90E+00
2013 3.96 4 16 1.58E+01 8.90E+00
N 4
N-1 3
Total 27.75 10 30 65.46

�^�
�^� �^�
2010 0.68 -9 81 6561 -6.12E+00
2011 20.39 -7 49 2401 -1.43E+02
2012 2.72 7 49 2401 1.90E+01
2013 3.96 9 81 6561 3.56E+01
N 4
N-1 3
Total 27.75 0 260 17924 -9.42E+01

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 16.67 5 Pro
2015 9.02 7 10
2016 (0.94) 9
2017 (13.21) 11 0
2015
2014
2016
2018 (27.78) 13 �^� �^�
2019 (44.67) 15 -10
2020 (63.86) 17
-20
2021 (85.37) 19
2022 (109.18) 21 -30
2023 (135.30) 23
2024 (163.73) 25 -40
2025 (194.47) 27
2026 (227.51) 29 -50
2027 (262.87) 31
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
3.52E+02
2.15E-02
6.99E+02
1.32E+01
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
1.32E+01 1.75E+02
-2.12E+02 4.49E+04
-2.47E+01 6.08E+02
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
Total ^�4.57E+04
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-7.83E-01 8.11E+00 -7.43E+00 5.52E+01
-7.83E-01 7.33E+00 1.31E+01 1.71E+02
-7.83E-01 6.55E+00 -3.83E+00 1.46E+01
-7.83E-01 5.76E+00 -1.80E+00 3.25E+00
Total 2.44E+02
𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

�^�Y ^� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
a b c
^�
�^�Y (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
5.51E+01 2.57E+01 -3.62E-01 -2.89E-01 5.58E+00 -4.90E+00 2.40E+01
9.99E+02 2.57E+01 -3.62E-01 -2.89E-01 1.41E+01 6.30E+00 3.97E+01
1.33E+02 2.57E+01 -3.62E-01 -2.89E-01 9.02E+00 -6.30E+00 3.97E+01
3.21E+02 2.57E+01 -3.62E-01 -2.89E-01 -9.40E-01 4.90E+00 2.40E+01
Total 1.27E+02
Standard
5.64E+00
1.51E+03 Deviation

10
0
2015
2017
2019
2022
2024
2026
2028
2014
2016
2018
2020
2021
2023
2025
2027
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
10 ^�
20
30
40
50
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2012 19.5 -18.66 0 0 0
2013 0.84 -18.66 1.95E+01 8.40E-01 0.00E+00
Total
N 2
N-1 1
Standard Deviation
Total 2.03E+01

2012 19.50 0 0.0431 0 0
2013 0.84 -0.9569230769 0.0431 1.95E+01 8.40E-01
N 2
N-1 1
Total 20.34 -0.9569 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
r -0.95692

2012 19.50 1 1 1.95E+01 3.82E+01
2013 0.84 2 4 1.68E+00 3.82E+01
N 2
N-1 1
Total 20.34 3 5 21.18

2012 19.50 -1 1 1 -1.95E+01
2013 0.84 1 �^� 1 1 8.40E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 20.34 0 2 2 -1.87E+01

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 63.54 3 Pro
2015 207.60 5 100
2016 433.02 7 90
2017 739.80 9 80
2018 1,127.94 11 70
2019 1,597.44 13 60
2020 2,148.30 15 50
2021 2,780.52 17 40
2022 3,494.10 19 �^� �^� 30
2023 4,289.04 21 20
2024 5,165.34 23 10
2025 6,123.00 25 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 7,162.02 27
2027 8,282.40 29
2028 9,484.14 31
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
-9.99E-16 9.98E-31
Total 9.98E-31
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
Standard Deviation ^�7.07E-16
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-1.87E+01 1.95E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
-1.87E+01 8.40E-01 -1.05E-14 1.11E-28
Total 1.11E-28
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
1.95E+01 0.00E+00 -9.33E+00 1.02E+01 1.95E+01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
8.40E-01 𝐘_�
0.00E+00 𝐘−𝐘_�
-9.33E+00 (𝐘−𝐘_� )
1.02E+01 8.40E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
^�
Total 3.56E-30
Standard
1.09E-15
1.09E-15
2.03E+01 Deviation

00
90
80
70
60
50
40
30 �^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
20
^�
10
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2010 0.27 0.23 0 0 0
2011 0.23 0.23 2.70E-01 5.00E-01 -2.70E-01
2012 30.91 0.23 2.30E-01 4.60E-01 3.05E+01
2013 0.96 0.23 3.09E+01 3.11E+01 -3.02E+01
Total
N 4
N-1 3
Standard Deviation
Total 3.24E+01

2010 0.27 0 45.0914 0 0
2011 0.23 -0.1481481481 45.0914 2.70E-01 1.22E+01
2012 30.91 133.3913043478 45.0914 2.30E-01 1.04E+01
2013 0.96 -0.9689420899 45.0914 3.09E+01 1.39E+03
N 4 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
N-1 3
Total 32.37 132.2742
r 44.09140

2010 0.27 1 1 2.70E-01 -9.50E-02
2011 0.23 2 4 4.60E-01 -9.50E-02
2012 30.91 3 9 9.27E+01 -9.50E-02
2013 0.96 4 16 3.84E+00 -9.50E-02
N 4
N-1 3
Total 32.37 10 30 97.3

�^�
�^� �^�
2010 0.27 -9 81 6561 -2.43E+00
2011 0.23 -7 49 2401 -1.61E+00
2012 30.91 7 49 2401 2.16E+02
2013 0.96 9 81 6561 8.64E+00
N 4
N-1 3
Total 32.37 0 260 17924 2.21E+02

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 31.04 5 Pro
2015 21.52 7 10
2016 8.26 9
2017 (8.73) 11 0
2015
2014
2016
2018 (29.46) 13 �^� �^�
2019 (53.93) 15 -10
2020 (82.14) 17
-20
2021 (114.09) 19
2022 (149.78) 21 -30
2023 (189.21) 23
2024 (232.37) 25 -40
2025 (279.28) 27
2026 (329.92) 29 -50
2027 (384.30) 31
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
9.27E+02
9.11E+02
1.84E+03
2.14E+01
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
-1.19E+01 1.43E+02
2.05E+01 4.22E+02
-1.39E+03 1.94E+06
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
Total ^�1.94E+06
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
3.28E+00 3.18E+00 -2.91E+00 8.47E+00
3.28E+00 6.46E+00 -6.23E+00 3.88E+01
3.28E+00 9.73E+00 2.12E+01 4.49E+02
3.28E+00 1.30E+01 -1.20E+01 1.45E+02
Total 6.41E+02
𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

�^�Y ^� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
a b c
^�
�^�Y (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
2.19E+01 3.85E+01 8.50E-01 -4.67E-01 -7.03E+00 7.30E+00 5.33E+01
1.13E+01 3.85E+01 8.50E-01 -4.67E-01 9.62E+00 -9.39E+00 8.82E+01
1.51E+03 3.85E+01 8.50E-01 -4.67E-01 2.15E+01 9.39E+00 8.82E+01
7.78E+01 3.85E+01 8.50E-01 -4.67E-01 8.26E+00 -7.30E+00 5.33E+01
Total 2.83E+02
Standard
8.41E+00
1.63E+03 Deviation

10
0
2015
2017
2019
2022
2024
2026
2028
2014
2016
2018
2020
2021
2023
2025
2027
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
10 ^�
20
30
40
50
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2012 1.25 -1.07 0 0 0
2013 0.18 -1.07 1.25E+00 1.80E-01 0.00E+00
Total
N 2
N-1 1
Standard Deviation
Total 1.43E+00

2012 1.25 0 0.1440 0 0
2013 0.18 -0.856 0.1440 1.25E+00 1.80E-01
N 2
N-1 1
Total 1.43 -0.8560 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�
r -0.85600

2012 1.25 1 1 1.25E+00 2.32E+00
2013 0.18 2 4 3.60E-01 2.32E+00
N 2
N-1 1
Total 1.43 3 5 1.61

2012 1.25 -1 1 1 -1.25E+00
2013 0.18 1 �^� 1 1 1.80E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 1.43 0 2 2 -1.07E+00

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 4.83 3 Pro
2015 15.20 5 800
2016 31.29 7 700
2017 53.10 9
600
2018 80.63 11
2019 113.88 13 500
2020 152.85 15 400

2021 197.54 17 300
2022 247.95 19 �^� �^�
200
2023 304.08 21
100
2024 365.93 23
2025 433.50 25 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 506.79 27
2027 585.80 29
2028 670.53 31
Pro
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-1.07E+00 1.25E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
-1.07E+00 1.80E-01 1.17E-15 1.36E-30
Total 1.36E-30
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
1.25E+00 0.00E+00 -5.35E-01 7.15E-01 1.25E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
1.80E-01 𝐘_�
0.00E+00 𝐘−𝐘_�
-5.35E-01 (𝐘−𝐘_� )
7.15E-01 1.80E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
^�
Total 0.00E+00
Standard
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.43E+00 Deviation

00
00
00
00
00
00
�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
00 ^�
00
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year

2,000,000
0,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
4,000,000
2,000,000
Year
−𝐘_� )
−𝐘_� )

2011 0.11 -0.03 0 0 0
2012 0.88 -0.03 1.10E-01 8.00E-02 8.00E-01
2013 0.05 -0.03 8.80E-01 8.50E-01 -8.00E-01
Total
N 3
N-1 2
Standard Deviation
Total 1.04E+00

2011 0.11 0 4.0284 0 0
2012 0.88 7 4.0284 1.10E-01 4.43E-01
2013 0.05 -0.9431818182 4.0284 8.80E-01 3.55E+00
N 3
N-1 2
Total 1.04 6.0568
r 3.02841

2011 0.11 1 1 1.10E-01 4.07E-01
2012 0.88 2 4 1.76E+00 4.07E-01
2013 0.05 3 9 1.50E-01 4.07E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 1.04 6 14 2.02

2011 0.11 -1 1 1 -1.10E-01
2012 0.88 0 0 0 0.00E+00
2013 0.05 1 1 1 5.00E-02
N 3
N-1 2
Total 1.04 0 2 2 -6.00E-02

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 (12.04) 4 Pro
2015 (28.10) 6 0
2014
2015
2016
2016 (50.56) 8 -100
2017 (79.42) 10
-200
2018 (114.68) 12
2019 (156.34) 14 -300
2020 (204.40) 16 -400

2021 (258.86) 18 -500
2022 (319.72) 20 -600
2023 (386.98) 22
-700
2024 (460.64) 24
2025 (540.70) 26 -800
2026 (627.16) 28 -900
2027 (720.02) 30
2028 (819.28) 32
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
6.40E-01
1.28E+00
6.53E-01
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
4.37E-01 1.91E-01
-3.50E+00 1.22E+01
Total 1.24E+01
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-3.00E-02 3.77E-01 -2.67E-01 7.11E-02
-3.00E-02 3.47E-01 5.33E-01 2.84E-01
-3.00E-02 3.17E-01 -2.67E-01 7.11E-02
Total 4.27E-01
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
1.10E-01 8.80E-01 -3.00E-02 -8.00E-01 1.10E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 8.80E-01 -3.00E-02 -8.00E-01 8.80E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
5.00E-02 8.80E-01 -3.00E-02 -8.00E-01 5.00E-02 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 4.81E-33
Standard
4.01E-17
1.60E-01 Deviation

0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2024
2025
2027
2028
2020
2023
2026
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Year
−𝐘_� )

2011 1.09 -0.44 0 0 0
2012 1.74 -0.44 1.09E+00 6.55E-01 1.09E+00
2013 0.22 -0.44 1.74E+00 1.31E+00 -1.09E+00
Total
N 3
N-1 2
Standard Deviation
Total 3.05E+00

2011 1.09 0 0.8614 0 0
2012 1.74 0.5963302752 0.8614 1.09E+00 9.39E-01
2013 0.22 -0.8735632184 0.8614 1.74E+00 1.50E+00
N 3
N-1 2
Total 3.05 -0.2772
r -0.13862

2011 1.09 1 1 1.09E+00 1.89E+00
2012 1.74 2 4 3.48E+00 1.89E+00
2013 0.22 3 9 6.60E-01 1.89E+00
N 3
N-1 2
Total 3.05 6 14 5.23

2011 1.09 -1 1 1 -1.09E+00
2012 1.74 0 0 0 0.00E+00
2013 0.22 1 1 1 2.20E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 3.05 0 2 2 -8.70E-01

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 (17.36) 4 Pro
2015 (39.93) 6 100
2016 (71.18) 8 90
2017 (111.11) 10 80
2018 (159.72) 12 70
2019 (217.01) 14 60
2020 (282.98) 16 50
2021 (357.63) 18 40
2022 (440.96) 20 30
2023 (532.97) 22 20
2024 (633.66) 24 10
2025 (743.03) 26 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 (861.08) 28
2027 (987.81) 30
2028 (1,123.22) 32
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
1.18E+00
2.35E+00
8.86E-01
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
8.01E-01 6.42E-01
-1.28E+00 1.64E+00
Total 2.28E+00
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
-4.35E-01 1.45E+00 -3.62E-01 1.31E-01
-4.35E-01 1.02E+00 7.23E-01 5.23E-01
-4.35E-01 5.82E-01 -3.62E-01 1.31E-01
Total 7.85E-01
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
1.09E+00 1.74E+00 -4.35E-01 -1.09E+00 1.09E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 1.74E+00 -4.35E-01 -1.09E+00 1.74E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.20E-01 1.74E+00 -4.35E-01 -1.09E+00 2.20E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
Standard
0.00E+00
1.31E+00 Deviation

00
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year
−𝐘_� )

2011 0.23 0.02 0 0 0
2012 3.66 0.02 2.30E-01 2.50E-01 3.41E+00
2013 0.27 0.02 3.66E+00 3.68E+00 -3.41E+00
Total
N 3
N-1 2
Standard Deviation
Total 4.16E+00

2011 0.23 0 7.9934 0 0
2012 3.66 14.9130434783 7.9934 2.30E-01 1.84E+00
2013 0.27 -0.9262295082 7.9934 3.66E+00 2.93E+01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 4.16 13.9868
r 6.99341

2011 0.23 1 1 2.30E-01 1.35E+00
2012 3.66 2 4 7.32E+00 1.35E+00
2013 0.27 3 9 8.10E-01 1.35E+00
N 3
N-1 2
Total 4.16 6 14 8.36

2011 0.23 -1 1 1 -2.30E-01
2012 3.66 0 0 0 0.00E+00
2013 0.27 1 1 1 2.70E-01
N 3
N-1 2
Total 4.16 0 2 2 4.00E-02

Year Demand (MT) X
2014 (50.82) 4 Pro
2015 (118.98) 6 100
2016 (214.42) 8 90
2017 (337.14) 10 80
2018 (487.14) 12 70
2019 (664.42) 14 60
2020 (868.98) 16 50
2021 (1,100.82) 18 40
2022 (1,359.94) 20 30
2023 (1,646.34) 22 20
2024 (1,960.02) 24 10
2025 (2,300.98) 26 0
2014
2016
2015
2026 (2,669.22) 28
2027 (3,064.74) 30
2028 (3,487.54) 32
(𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0
1.16E+01
2.33E+01
2.78E+00
_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )
^�
0 0
1.82E+00 3.32E+00
-2.90E+01 8.40E+02
Total 8.43E+02
b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
2.00E-02 1.37E+00 -1.14E+00 1.29E+00
2.00E-02 1.39E+00 2.27E+00 5.17E+00
2.00E-02 1.41E+00 -1.14E+00 1.29E+00
Total 7.75E+00
�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

^�
2.30E-01 3.66E+00 2.00E-02 -3.41E+00 2.30E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
0.00E+00 3.66E+00 2.00E-02 -3.41E+00 3.66E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
2.70E-01 3.66E+00 2.00E-02 -3.41E+00 2.70E-01 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
Total 0.00E+00
Standard
0.00E+00
5.00E-01 Deviation

00
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2015
2024
2027
Year
−𝐘_� )

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Table 4

Countries of Origin of UCO in Million Tons

Country of Origin Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8

Arithmetic Straight Line Method

Year Demand (MT) a 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_�

Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method

Year Demand (MT) % increase/decrease 1+r 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�

Statistical Straight Line Method

Year Demand (MT) X �^� XY a

Statistical Parabolic Curve Method

Year Demand (MT) X �^� �^� XY

PROJECTION USING STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE METHOD

Demand (metric tons)

Standard Deviation 2.27E-02

b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

Standard Deviation 4.01E-02

�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

Projected Global Demand of Propylene Glycol

Arithmetic Straight Line Method

Year Demand (MT) a 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_�

Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�

Year Demand (MT) % increase/decrease 1+r 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�

Statistical Straight Line Method

Year Demand (MT) X �^� XY a

PROJECTION USING STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE METHOD

Demand (metric tons)

Standard Deviation 1.27E-01

b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

Standard Deviation 6.54E-02

Projected Global Demand of Propylene Glycol

�^�Y 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

Projected Global Demand of Propylene Glycol

Arithmetic Straight Line Method

Year Demand (MT) a 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_�

Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method

Year Demand (MT) % increase/decrease 1+r 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�

Statistical Straight Line Method

Year Demand (MT) X �^� XY a

Statistical Parabolic Curve Method

Year Demand (MT) X �^� �^� XY

PROJECTION USING STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE METHOD

Demand (metric tons)

2020 87.15 15 400

Demand (metric tons)

b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

Standard Deviation 0.00E+00

�^�Y a b c 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

Projected Global Demand of Propylene Glycol

Projected Global Demand of Propylene Glycol

Arithmetic Straight Line Method

Year Demand (MT) a 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_�

Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method

Year Demand (MT) % increase/decrease 1+r 𝐘_𝐢−� 𝐘_�

Statistical Straight Line Method

Year Demand (MT) X �^� XY a

Year Demand (MT) X �^� �^� XY

PROJECTION USING STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE METHOD

Demand (metric tons)

Standard Deviation 5.56E+01

b 𝐘_� 𝐘−𝐘_� (𝐘−𝐘_� )

Standard Deviation 1.97E+01

Projected Global Demand of Propylene Glycol