ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 45, 3, 2009, p.

375-389

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Rainfall over Bangladesh

During the Time Period 1969-2003

Shamsuddin Shahid and Osman Salleh Khairulmaini

Department of Geography, University of Malaya 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
(Manuscript received 10 February 2009; in final form 2 April 2009)

Abstract

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Bangladesh has been studied in this paper from thirty-five years
(1969-2003) of rainfall data recorded at 24 rain gauges distributed over the country. Long-term annual average rainfall,
coefficient of variation of annual rainfall, precipitation concentration and aridity indices at each station have been com-
puted and then interpolated using kriging method within a geographic information system to show the temporal and
spatial variability of rainfall. Mann-Kendall test has been used to analyze the trend in rainfall data in different recording
stations and the Sen’s slope method has been used to determine the magnitude of change. A moderate variation in in-
ter-annual rainfall and high variation in intra-annual rainfall in Bangladesh have been observed. Non-significant positive
trend of annual, monsoon and pre-monsoon rainfall, and a negative trend in winter rainfall are found in Bangladesh.
Spatial distribution of rainfall trends shows that rainfall is increasing in the coastal zone and northern Bangladesh, and
decreasing in the central part of the country. A declining trend of precipitation concentration is also observed in most
of the stations. These results may be a first indication of the precipitation response to global warming – a hypothesis
which needs to be further investigated by means of climate model projections.

Key words: Aridity, rainfall trend analysis, precipitation concentration index, climate change, GIS

1. Introduction graphic position. Severe floods in the years of 1974,

Climatic change due to global worming is a major
concern in the recent years. It has been indicated that
rainfall is changing due to global warming on both
the global (Hulme et al., 1998; Lambert et al., 2003;
Dore, 2005) and the regional scales (Rodriguez-
Puebla et al., 1998; Gemmer et al., 2004; Kayano and
Sansigolo, 2008). Future climate changes may in-
volve modifications in climatic variability as well as
changes in averages (Mearns et al., 1996). The im-
plications of these changes are particularly significant
for areas already under stress, such as in Bangladesh
where hydrological disasters of one kind or another
is a common phenomenon. The country is one of the
most flood prone countries in the world due to its geo-
Corresponding Author: Shamsuddin Shahid, Department of
Geography, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia.
Phone : +603-7967-7375
E-mail: sshahid_ait@yahoo.com
1984, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007 ravaged the
country. Drought in the northern part of the country
has also become a growing concern in the recent years.
The country experienced eight droughts of severe
magnitude in the years of 1973, 1977, 1979, 1982,
1989, 1992, 1994-1995 and 1999 (Shahid, 2008;
Shahid and Behrawan, 2008).
Rainfall variability in space and time is one of the
most relevant characteristics of the climate of Bangladesh.
Climatic modelers forecast that as the world warm, the
monsoon rains in Bangladesh will be increased and at
the same time winter precipitation will be decreased.
This will cause a cruel combination of more extreme
floods and longer periods of droughts. Bangladesh has
been termed as one of the most vulnerable countries in
the world due to climatic change (IPCC, 2007). Therefore,
for disaster mitigation, agriculture and water resources
planning and management in the context of global cli-
matic change it is essential to study the characteristics
and trends of rainfall in Bangladesh. In the present pa-
per, spatial and temporal variation of rainfall during the
376 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
period 1969-2003 has been analyzed.
Several studies have been carried out on temporal
variability of rainfall in Bangladesh (Ahmed, 1989;
Ahmed and Karmaker, 1993; Ahmed, 1994; Ahmed et
al., 1996, Hussain and Sultana, 1996; Kripalni et al.,
1996; Rahman et al., 1997; Ahmed and Kim, 2003).
Ahmed and Karmakar (1993) studied the variability of
the arrival and withdrawal dates of summer monsoon
in Bangladesh, Ahmed (1994) studied the variability
of summer monsoon and its relation with the monsoon
onset dates, Ahmed et al. (1996) showed the relation-
ship between the annual rainfall and the ENSO,
Rahman et al. (1997) studied the trend of summer mon-
soon rainfall in Bangladesh, Ahmed and Kim (2003)
investigated the patterns of daily rainfall in Bangladesh
during the summer monsoon. All the studies were car-
ried out to show the seasonal and temporal pattern of
rainfall in Bangladesh. However, no studies have been
carried out so far on spatial distribution of temporal
rainfall characteristics of Bangladesh. The main ob-
jectives of this paper are to show the spatial patterns of
inter-annual as well as intra-annual variation of rainfall
over Bangladesh during the time period 1969–2003.
Aridity assessment using De Martonne’s (De Martonne,
1926) and Thornthwait’s (Thornthwaite, 1931) methods
has been carried out for climate zoning of Bangladesh.
Trend analysis has been carried out to show the long-
term change in annual, monsoon, pre-monsoon and win-
ter precipitation over Bangladesh as well as in each cli-
mate zone. Mann-Kendall test has been used to analyze
the trends in rainfall data in different recording stations
and the Sen’s slope method (Sen, 1968) has been used
to determine the magnitude of change. Spatial dis-
tribution, temporal variation and trend of Precipitation
Concentration Index (PCI) have also been assessed.
GIS has been used for the development of historic rain-
fall database, and development of raster maps of rainfall
properties.
2. Climate of Bangladesh
2
Bangladesh, occupies an area of 143,998 km , cli-
matically belongs to sub-tropical regions where mon-
soon weather prevails throughout the year. Geographically,
it extends from 20°34'N to 26°38'N latitude and from
88°01'E to 92°41'E longitude. Except the hilly south-
east, most of the country is a low-lying plain land. Three
distinct seasons can be recognized in Bangladesh from
climatic point of view: (i) the dry winter season from
November to February, (ii) the pre-monsoon hot summ-
er season from March to May, and (iii) the rainy mon-
soon season which lasts from June to October (Rashid,
1991). Analysis of temperature data for the time period
1969-2003 shows that the average temperature of the
country ranges from 7.2°C to 12.8°C in winter and 23.9
to 31.1°C in summer. The average relative humidity for
the whole year ranges from 70.5% to 78.1% with a max-
imum in September and a minimum in March (Banglapedia,
2003). About 78% rainfall in Bangladesh occurs in
monsoon, caused by weak tropical depressions that are
brought from the Bay of Bengal into Bangladesh by the
wet monsoon winds.
3. Data and Methodology
Daily recorded rainfall data at 24 rainfall measuring
stations during the period 1969–2003 has been used
in the present study. The location of rainfall measuring
stations is shown in Fig. 1. The homogeneity of the pre-
cipitation records are analyzed by calculating the von
Neumann ratio (Von Neumann, 1941; Suhaila et al.,
2008) and the Buishand range test (Buishand, 1982).
The data sets of all stations which have been used in the
present study are found homogeneous.
Different statistical characteristics of rainfall like
mean rainfall over the year or different seasons, coefficients
of inter-annual rainfall variation, precipitation concen-
tration index (PCI), coefficient of variation of PCI are
calculated for all the stations. The spatial distributions
of these rainfall properties as well as trends of rainfall
and PCI are mapped to analyze the spatio-temporal pat-
tern of rainfall over Bangladesh. Methods used for the
processing of rainfall data to find the spatial and tempo-
ral trends and their mapping are discussed below.
a. Rainfall characteristics analysis
Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) proposed
by Oliver (1980) has been used to define temporal as-
pects of the rainfall distribution within a year. PCI is
31 August 2009 Shamsuddin Shahid and Osman Salleh Khairulmain
Fig. 1. Location of rain-gauge stations in the map of
Bangladesh.
expressed as percentage in according to following for-
mula:
12
∑p 2
i
(1)
PCI = 100 × i =1
P2
where Pi precipitation of i -th month, and P = annual
precipitation.
PCI is very useful to evaluate the degree of seasonal
concentration of precipitation. It provides information
to compare different climates in terms of seasonality
of precipitation regime. The more concentrated is pre-
cipitation, the more difficult is water management, irri-
gation control, soil erosion prevention and rainfed
agriculture.
In order to show the spatial distribution of the intra-
and inter- annual variability of rainfall in Bangladesh,
PCI and the coefficient of variation of the annual rain-
fall(R) at each station are calculated and then interpo-
lated using Kriging method (Isaaks and Srivastava,
1989).
377
b. Aridity indices
Aridity index of an area gives an idea about its cli-
mate, bio-environment, soil moisture, drought vulner-
ability and erosion susceptibility. For aridity mapping
of Bangladesh, De Martonne’s aridity index and
Thornthwait’s precipitation effectiveness index are
used. De Martonne (1926) proposed a method for cal-
culating aridity index (AI) of an area using following
equation:
AI = [ P / (T + 10) + 12 p / (t + 10) ] / 2 (2)
where P is the mean annual precipitation in mm, T is
the mean annual temperature in °C, p the precipitation
of the driest month in mm, and t the mean temperature
of the driest month in °C.
Thornthwaite (1931) classified the climatic regions
into different classes based on the precipitation effec-
tiveness index (PE), which is computed from the
monthly values of precipitation and temperature by us-
ing following equation:
(3)
where P is the monthly precipitation in inches, T is the
temperature in °F, and n is the months(=12).
c. Trend Analysis
Trend of rainfall (1969-2003) is calculated to envis-
age the temporal pattern of rainfall in Bangladesh.
There exist numerous parametric methods, such as
moving average or running mean (Sneyers, 1992,
Salinger et al., 1995), linear regression (Gregory, 1978;
Lanzante, 1996), etc. and non-parametric method, such
as Mann–Kendall’s test, Spearman’s test, etc. (Sneyers,
1992) for the trend analysis. As mentioned by several
authors (Yu and Neil, 1993; Suppiah and Hennessy,
1998), complementary information can be obtained by
using both techniques. In the present study, the Mann–
Kendall trend test (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975) has been
used to analyze the trends of rainfall.
378 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
In Mann-Kendall (MK) test the data are evaluated
as an ordered time series. Each data value is compared
to all subsequent data values in order to calculate the
Mann-Kendall statistic. The probability associated with
Mann-Kendall statistic is then computed to statistically
quantify the significance of the trend. Details of Mann-
Kendall test can be obtained in Sneyers (1992).
Some trends may not be evaluated to be statistically
significant while they might be of practical interest
(Yue and Hashino, 2003; Basistha et al., 2007). Even
if climate change component is present, it may not be
detected by statistical tests at a satisfactory significance
level (Radziejewski and Kundzewicz, 2004). In the
present study, linear trend analysis is also carried out
and the magnitude of trend is estimated by Sen’s Slope
method (Sen, 1968). Sen’s Slope method gives a robust
estimation of trend (Yue et al., 2002). Sen's method cal-
culates the slope as a change in measurement per change
in time. Sen's estimator of slope is simply given by the
median slope. Details of Sen’s slope method can be
found in Sen (1968).
d. Mapping using GIS
For mapping of spatial characteristics of rainfall,
mean annual rainfall, rainfall concentration index, their
variation coefficients and trends are calculated for each
station. GIS is used for the development of historic rain-
fall database and calculation of rainfall characteristics
at each rain gauge station. Raster maps of rainfall char-
acteristics are prepared from point data using kriging
interpolation method.
Historical rainfall database within a GIS is devel-
oped using the concept proposed by Goodall et al.
(2004). In the present study, a data model consists of
one spatial component called Rainfall and one temporal
component called TimeSeries is developed. The spatial
component contains feature classes relevant to that
component. For example, Rainfall component con-
tains the RainGaugePoint feature class. Every feature
within RainGaugePoint class is assigned a unique
identifier. This identifier is used to relate features and
objects internal to the geodatabase. Therefore, the tem-
poral component is linked to the spatial components
through the Feature ID. This allows one to query the
database using both spatial and temporal descriptions
(Goodall et al., 2004).
Geostatistical analysis tool of ArcGIS 9.0 (ESRI,
2003) has been used for the preparation of raster map
from point data using kriging interpolation method.
Kriging is a stochastic interpolation method (Isaaks and
Srivastava, 1989), which is widely recognized as stand-
ard approach for surface interpolation based on scalar
measurements at different points. Study showed that
Kriging gives better global predictions than other meth-
ods such inverse distance or weighted inverse distance
techniques (van Beers and Kleijnen, 2004). Therefore,
kriging is used in this study for the interpolation of point
data to prepare the raster maps of various rainfall
parameters. Kriging is an optimal surface interpolation
method based on spatially dependent variance, which
is generally expressed as a semi-variogram. Surface in-
terpolation using kriging depends on the selected semi-
variogram model and the semi-variogram must be fit-
ted with a mathematical function or model. Depending
on the shape of semi-variograms, spherical and Guassian
models are used in the present study for their fitting.
Spherical and Gaussian models are bounded variogram
functions. The spherical model employs a progressively
decreasing spatial autocorrelation for the fitting of data.
On the other hand Gaussian model uses the maximum
likelihood approach for this purpose.
4. Results and Discussion
Precipitation climatology over Bangladesh or the
mean of annual precipitation for the period 1969–
2003 is shown in Fig. 2a. Rainfall in Bangladesh varies
from 1527 mm in the west to 4197 mm in the east. The
gradient of rainfall from west to east is approximately
-1
7 mm km . The monthly distribution of rainfall over
the country is shown by a graph in Fig. 2b. The left verti-
cal axis of the graph represents rainfall in millimeter
and the right vertical axis represents .the rainfall as a
percentage of annual total rainfall. The graph shows
that the rainfall is very much seasonal in Bangladesh,
more than 89% of rainfall occurs during May to October.
The main mechanism of the rainfall in Bangladesh
during the summer monsoon season is caused by trop-
ical depressions known as monsoon depression in the
31 August 2009 Shamsuddin Shahid and Osman Salleh Khairulmain 379

(a)

(b)

Fig. 2. (a) Spatial variation of mean annual rainfall over Bangladesh; (b) Monthly distribution of rainfall computed from
35 years (1969-2003) rainfall data.

Bay of Bengal (Ahmed and Kim, 2003). The monsoon
depressions enter Bangladesh from the Bay of Bengal
with south-to-north trajectory and then turn toward the
northwest and west being deflected by the Meghalaya
Plateau. As these depressions move farther and farther
inland, their moisture content decreases, resulting in
decreasing rainfall toward the northwest and west of
Bangladesh (Ahmed and Kim, 2003). On the other
hand, the additional uplifting effect of the Meghalaya
plateau increased the rainfall in northeast of Bangladesh.
De Martonne’s aridity index and Thornthwait’s pre-
cipitation effectiveness index maps of Bangladesh are
shown in Figs. 3(a) and 3(b) respectively. The aridity
maps reveal three climate zones in Bangladesh viz.
moist sub-humid, humid and wet. The climate of
Bangladesh is mostly humid type. The northeastern
side of the country belongs to wet climate and the central
western part of the country belongs to moist sub-humid
380 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

(a)

(b)

Fig. 3. Dryness map of Bangladesh obtained by (a) De Martonne and (b) Thornwait models.

climate. Low rainfall and high variation between winter
and summer temperature is the characteristics of moist
sub-humid zone of Bangladesh. Mean annual rainfall
in this zone is less than 2000 mm and the mean temper-
ature varies between 20°C in winter and 32°C in
summer. In summer, some of the hottest days experi-
ence a temperature of about 45°C or even more and in
winter it falls to about 5°C in some places of this zone
(Banglapedia, 2003). Therefore, the region experi-
ences the two extremities that clearly contrast with the
climatic condition of rest of the country. The lowest in-
dex values obtained by De Martonne and Thornthwaite
methods are 20.89 and 64.04 respectively in the north-
western side of this zone. As the dryness index values
in northwestern Bangladesh is close to that of a ‘dry
zone’, the climate of this region of Bangladesh is termed
as ‘dry climate’. The total annual potential evapotranspi-
ration in this part of Bangladesh is also lower than or
equal to annual rainfall in some years. High rainfall and
low variation between winter and summer temperature
is the characteristics of humid zone of Bangladesh.
Mean annual rainfall in this zone varies between 2000
31 August 2009 Shamsuddin Shahid and Osman Salleh Khairulmain 381

mm and 4000 mm. The mean annual rainfall is around

two times more than the mean annual potential evapo-
transpiration in most parts of this zone. The mean tem-
perature in humid zone is 22°C in winter and 28°C in
summer. On the other hand, the wet zone is charac-
terized by huge rainfall and moderate variation of
temperature. The mean annual rainfall in the wet zone of
Bangladesh is higher than 4000 mm which is four-times
more than the mean annual potential evapotranspiration.
Maximum aridity index values obtained in this zone by
De Martonne and Thornthwait methods are 161.25 and
874.24 respectively.
Spatial pattern of the inter-annual variability of rain-
fall over Bangladesh is shown in Fig. 4. There exists
no defined method for the classification of rainfall
variability. Classification of rainfall variability de-
pends on the rainfall characteristics of a region. In the
present paper, if the coefficient of variation (CV) of an-
nual rainfall is more than 24% then the rainfall is termed
as highly variable, if CV is within the range of 16% to
24% then the rainfall is termed as moderately variable
and if it is less than 16% then the rainfall is termed as Fig. 4. Rainfall variability map of Bangladesh.
less variable. According to that classification, a moder-
ate inter-annual variability of rainfall is observed in
most parts of Bangladesh. The value gradually de- February) rainfall over Bangladesh are shown in Figs.
creases in all directions except in northeastern hilly 5(b), 5(c) and 5(d), respectively. The means of mon-
region. High variability of rainfall in the northwester soon, pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over Bangladesh
part of the country has made the region highly prone are found 1946 mm, 230 mm and 88 mm, respectively.
to droughts. The region experienced more than eight The trend analysis of monsoon, pre-monsoon and win-
droughts of major magnitude in last forty years (Paul, ter rainfall by Sen’s slope method shows increase of
1998). The coefficient of variation of rainfall is com- monsoon and pre-monsoon rainfall with a rate of +3.33
-1 -1
paratively low in the coastal region of Bangladesh mm y and +2.43 mm y respectively and decrease of
which is highly prone to cyclones and storm surges. winter rainfall with a rate of -0.47 mm y-1. However,
The time series of annual average rainfall over none of the trends is found statistically significant at
Bangladesh for the period 1969-2003 is shown in Fig. 95% level of confidence by Mann-Kendall test.
5a. The mean annual rainfall over Bangladesh is 2488 Trend analysis is also carried out in each climate zone
mm. The deviation of annual precipitation from mean identified by De Martonne’s aridity index and
precipitation is found to vary from +408 mm to -586 Thornthwait’s precipitation effectiveness index meth-
mm during the time period 1969 to 2003. The magni- ods to explore the existence of any significant trends
tude of change of annual rainfall computed by Sen’s of rainfall in a particular climate zone. Statistically sig-
slope method shows an increase of annual rainfall with nificant change is observed only in annual rainfall in
-1
a rate of +4.94 mm y . However, the Mann-Kendall test humid zone. The annual average rainfall time series in
shows that the trend is not statistically significant. humid zone is shown in Fig. 6. The study shows that
The time series of monsoon (June–October), pre- annual average rainfall in humid zone of Bangladesh
monsoon (March–May) and winter (November – is increasing by 9.88 mm y-1 at 95% level of confidence.
382 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Table 1. Trend of rainfall in 24 stations of Bangladesh during the period 1969-2003

Annual Monsoon Pre-Monsoon Winter
Station PCI Trend
Rainfall Trend Rainfall Trend Rainfall Trend Rainfall Trend
Sylhet -15.71 -9.10* -6.65 -1.12 0.0229
Srimongal 7.41 9.00 2.52 -0.59 -0.0418
Comilla 6.60 3.12 1.62 0.86 0.0088
Rangamati 13.50 5.00 11.13* 0.33 -0.0586
Chittagong 4.40 -1.26 7.42** -0.41 -0.0489
**
CoxBaz 14.21 10.82 7.00 0.71 -0.0716
Hatya 7.15 1.90 2.41 -0.43 -0.0043
M.Cort -15.36 -18.79** 7.44** -2.22* 0.0089
Sandip 9.77 8.25 2.56 0.88 0.0248
Teknaf 33.23* 33.19* 8.00** 0.77 -0.0119
Faridpur -10.45 -9.72 -2.25 1.13 -0.0652**
Dhaka -7.01 -8.89 -1.51 0.19 -0.0182
Mymen 1.31 -6.41 4.62 -0.64 -0.1009*
Khulna -8.48 -12.10* 0.87 2.46* -0.1509*
Barishal -5.64 -2.48 0.33 -1.71 0.0324
Satkhira 0.57 -2.03 4.80* 0.44 -0.1200*
Khepupara 20.73* 14.78* 3.86 1.44 -0.0186
**
Bhola -17.54 -9.86 -1.95 -1.15 -0.0285
Jessore 3.22 3.17 1.48 0.63 -0.0043
Ishurdi -15.70 -12.37 -2.10 -0.35 -0.0318
*
Bogra 2.56 -0.67 1.76 0.38 -0.0934
Rajshahi -5.95 -7.23 0.75 -0.52 -0.0337
Dinajpur 16.00* 16.44** 2.60 0.29 -0.1166**
* * **
Rangpur 15.27 11.17 2.33 0.20 -0.0639
Average
4.94 3.33 2.43 -0.47 -0.037
Rainfall
* 5% level of significance ** 1% level of significance

Trend analysis of rainfall at each station is also car-
ried out to study the spatial variation of rainfall trends
in Bangladesh. The obtained result is given in Table 1.
Out of 24 stations, significant change of annual rainfall
is observed in five stations. Among them four stations
show positive change of rainfall and one station shows
negative change of rainfall. Among the rest nineteen
stations, eleven stations show positive change of rain-
fall and eight stations show negative change of rainfall.
Statistically significant change of monsoon rainfall is
observed in seven stations in Bangladesh. Positive
change is observed at four stations and negative change
is observed at three stations. Out of 24 stations, eleven
stations show increase of monsoon rainfall and thirteen
stations show decrease of monsoon rainfall over the
study period. Positive change in pre-monsoon rainfall
is observed at most of the stations of Bangladesh.
However, significant positive change is observed only
at six stations. Change in winter rainfall is negligible
in most of the stations. Significant change is observed
only is two stations.
The spatial distribution of annual, monsoon, pre-
monsoon and winter rainfall trend over the country are
shown in Figs. 7(a), 7(b), 7(c) and 7(d) respectively.
Plus (+) signs in the figures indicates an increase of rain-
fall, minus signs (-) means a decrease of rainfall and zero
(0) means no or negligible change of rainfall during the
time period 1969-2003. The signs in white color denote
31 August 2009 Shamsuddin Shahid and Osman Salleh Khairulmain 383

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Fig. 5. Trend of (a) annual; (b) monsoon; (c) pre-monsoon; and (d) winter rainfall of Bangladesh during 1969-2003.
384 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Fig. 6. Trend of average annual rainfall in humid zone of
Bangladesh shows an increase of rainfall by 9.88 mm/year
at 95% level of confidence.
significant change at 95% level of confidence. Spatial
distribution of annual rainfall trend reveals that annual
mean, monsoon and pre-monsoon rainfall have in-
creased in north Bangladesh and south-southeastern
coastal zones, and decreased in the central part of the
country. Maximum increase of annual rainfall is ob-
served at Teknaf (southeast corner of Bangladesh) with
-1
a rate of +33.23 mm y at 95% level of confidence.
Significant increase of annual rainfall is also observed
in the drought vulnerable zones of northern Bangladesh.
Maximum negative change of annual rainfall is ob-
served at Bhola station situated in central-south
Bangladesh. Spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall
trend (Fig. 7b) reveals almost similar pattern of annual
rainfall trend. Significant decrease of monsoon rainfall
-1
(-9.1 mm y ) is observed in the northeastern region. The
region is highly prone to flash flood due to heavy rainfall
in monsoon. Pre-monsoon rainfall is very important for
agriculture of Bangladesh. Increase pre-monsoon pre-
cipitation can reduce the irrigation water demand in
paddy field grown during dry season which shares al-
most 70% of total rice production in Bangladesh. Spatial
distribution of winter rainfall shows that change is negli-
gible in most parts of the country.
The monsoon of Bangladesh flows in two branches,
one of which strikes western India and the other travels
up the Bay of Bengal and over eastern India and
Bangladesh. The monsoon from the Bay of Bengal
crosses the plain to the north and northeast before being
turned to the west and northwest by the foothills of the
Himalayas. It is anticipated that increase in sea surface
temperature altered the wind patterns, leading to an ac-
cumulation of moisture in the northern region near the
foothills of the Himalayas and higher rainfall during the
summer monsoon season. The pre-monsoon is a transi-
tional season between the northerly circulation of win-
ter and southerly circulation of the summer monsoon.
The thunderstorms are the sources of pre-monsoon
rainfall in Bangladesh. The activity of the thunderstorms
during the pre-monsoon season depends upon the sup-
ply of moist air from the Bay of Bengal. Stronger and
more continuous winds from the Bay of Bengal during
pre-monsoon months in the recent year due to the in-
crease of sea surface temperature (Mandke and Bhide,
2003) are the causes of increased pre-monsoon rainfall
in Bangladesh.
Map of intra-annual distribution of rainfall or PCI
in Bangladesh is shown in Fig. 8a. PCI values in most
part of the country belong in the range of 13.4 to 16.0.
According the classification proposed by Michiels and
Gabriels (1996), this means that the rainfall of
Bangladesh is moderately seasonal. Higher PCI values
(PCI>16) in northern and southeastern part of the coun-
try means that rainfall in these region are seasonal. PCI
only allow us to examine the variability of rainfall with-
in a year. In order to measure the year-to-year variations
of rainfall concentration, coefficient of variation of PCI
is also calculated. The map of coefficient of variation
of PCI of Bangladesh is shown in Fig. 8b. The map
shows that irregular intra-annual rainfall distribution
is mainly concentrated in the low rainfall zone. Higher
values of coefficient of variation of PCI in western part
of Bangladesh mean that seasonal variability of rainfall
in the region is high.
No significant change in average PCI over Bangladesh
is observed by Mann-Kendall test. Trend analysis of
average PCI in each climate zone reveals statistically
significant change only in sub-humid zone. The aver-
age PCI time series in sub-humid zone is shown in Fig.
9. Trend analysis shows that the average PCI in sub-hu-
mid zone of Bangladesh is decreasing by -0.077% at
95% level of confidence.
The trend analysis of PCI at each station is given in
Table 1. PCI is found negative in 19 stations out of 24
stations of Bangladesh. Signification negative change
of PCI is found in five stations. Spatial distribution of
PCI trend over Bangladesh is shown in Fig. 10. The fig-
31 August 2009 Shamsuddin Shahid and Osman Salleh Khairulmain 385

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

Fig. 7. Spatial distribution of (a) annual; (b) monsoon; (c) pre-monsoon; and (d) winter rainfall trend over Bangladesh
during 1969-2003.
386 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

(a) ure shows a negative trend of PCI in all over Bangladesh

except in northeastern corner.
A positive trend in annual rainfall and negative trend
in winter rainfall means that the rainfall of Bangladesh
is concentrating in the monsoon and pre-monsoon
months. Increasing annual and monsoon rainfall has
been reported in other parts of Southeast Asia and East
Asia (Chang and Kwon, 2007; Zhang et al., 2009).
Chang and Kwon (2007) investigated the spatial pat-
terns of trends in summer precipitation for South Korea
and found increasing trends in precipitation amount
during the summer months. Zhang et al. (2009) studied
the precipitation trends of China and observed increas-
ing annual and summer precipitation. Most of the re-
gional climate models also predict similar results-in-
creasing annual rainfall and decreasing winter rainfall
in south Asia due to global climate change (IPCC,
2007). It has been predicted by using climate models
that rainfall in Bangladesh will increase in monsoon
and pre-monsoon, and decrease in winter in 21st cen-
tury (Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development, 2003). However, a negative trend of PCI
(b)
means concentration of rainfall during monsoon in
some parts of Bangladesh is decreasing. This may be
due to the increase of rainfall during pre-monsoon
months. Though it is not possible to come to a concrete
decision about climate change impact on rainfall in
Bangladesh by analyzing the data presented, the results
obtained in this study may be a first indication of the
precipitation response to global warming–a hypoth-
esis which needs to be further investigated by means
of climate model projections.

5. Summary

A study on spatio-temporal variability of rainfall

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of (a) precipitation concen-
tration index; and (b) coefficient of variation of precip-
itation concentration index.
over Bangladesh for the time period 1969-2003 has
been carried out in this paper. The results show a high
spatial and temporal variation of rainfall in Bangladesh.
The gradient of rainfall from west to east of Bangladesh
-1
is approximately 7 mm km . The aridity maps prepared
by using De Martonne’s and Thornthwait’s models re-
veal three climate zones in Bangladesh namely moist
sub-humid, humid and wet. Spatial pattern of the in-
ter-annual variability of rainfall shows a moderate to
31 August 2009 Shamsuddin Shahid and Osman Salleh Khairulmain
Fig. 9. Trend of average PCI in sub-humid zone of Bangladesh shows a decrease of rainfall concentration at 95% level
of confidence.
Fig. 10. Trend of average PCI in sub-humid zone of
Bangladesh shows a decrease of rainfall concentration at
95% level of confidence.
high variability in Bangladesh. The maximum in-
ter-annual variation is observed in northwestern part of
387
the county. Trend analysis of annual average rainfall
over Bangladesh shows an increase of annual rainfall
-1
at a rate of +4.94 mm y for the time period 1969-2003.
Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall shows increasing
monsoon and pre-monsoon rainfall and decreasing
winter rainfall in Bangladesh for the same time period.
However, none of the trends is statistically significant
at 95% level of confidence. Spatial distribution of rain-
fall trends reveal that annual, monsoon and pre-mon-
soon rainfalls have increased in north Bangladesh and
south-southeastern coastal zones, and decreased in the
central part of the country. Maximum increase of annual
rainfall is observed in southeast corner of Bangladesh
-1
at a rate of +33.23 mm y at 95% level of confidence.
Significant increase of annual and monsoon rainfall is
also observed in drought vulnerable north Bangladesh.
Significant decrease of monsoon rainfall is observed
in flood prone northeastern region. Pre-monsoon rain-
fall which is very important for agriculture of Bangladesh
is found to increase in the south and southeastern
Bangladesh at 95% level of confidence. Intra-annual
distribution of rainfall or PCI shows that the rainfall of
Bangladesh is moderately seasonal. Higher PCI values
in northern and southeastern part of the country mean
that rainfall in these regions is seasonal. The coefficient
of variation of PCI reveals that irregular intra-annual
rainfall distribution is mainly concentrated in the low
rainfall zone of Bangladesh. Trend analysis of PCI
388 ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
shows that rainfall concentration has decreased in most
part of the country over the time period 1969-2003.
Acknowledgements. The authors acknowledge
the Korean Meteorological Society for supporting
the publication fee.
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