A Novel Method For Improving MLE approximation in the

Exponential Random Graph Model

Brandon Chow
Swarthmore College

Introduction Overview of ERG Model Theoretical Results

Simulation Study 1: True MLE Known Simulation Study 2: True MLE Unknown
Observed Graph: Simulated Sampling Distribution: Observed Graph: Simulated Sampling Distribution:
Gradient Estimator (edges) Gradient Estimator (edges)
20 3

15
2
Frequency

Frequency
10

1
5

0 0
2.75 2.85 2.95 3.05 3.15 3.20 3.25 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60
Simulated Sampling Distribution:
Gradient Estimator (triangles) Simulated Sampling Distribution:
Gradient Estimator (triangles)
20 MCMC-MLE approximation: 5
MCMC-MLE Approximation vs. True MLE:
15 4
Frequency

Frequency
3
10
2

5
1

0 0
6.90 6.93 6.96 6.99 7.02 7.05 7.08 -0.80 -0.70 -0.60 -0.50 -0.40 -0.30