Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

U.S. Defense Secretary to Visit
Vietnam - L

Carlyle A. Thayer
January 22,2018

The Defense Ministers of Russia and the United States will visit Hanoi next week. We
request your assessment of the purposes of and likely outcomes of these visits.

Ql. What are the main reasons behind both trips by the Russian and the U.S.
Ministers of Defense to Vietnam at this point of time?
ANSWER: The visit of the defence ministers from Russia and the United States to
Vietnam at this time is no coincidence. Their simultaneous visits are an example of
Vietnam's policy of "diversification and multilateralization" of relations with the
major powers.
Russia and Vietnam have annual alternating exchanges by defence ministers and the
current visit by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is part of this pattern.
General Shoigu will visit Vietnam to advance the comprehensive strategic
partnership with Vietnam and to seek Vietnam's continued support for Russia's role
in East Asian security.
Presidents Donald Trump and Tran Dai Quang declared in their Joint Statement
issued in November last year that they welcomed the early visit of the U.S. Secretary
of Defence. James Mattis' visit to lndonesia and Vietnam is significant because he is
likely to return to Asia to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in May-June
and make a later visit to China. This is a significant commitment.
The main reason for Secretary Mattis' visit is to explain the recently released U.S.
Nation Security Strategy (NSS) and the U.S. National Defense Strategy (NDS) that
highlight the importance of regional partners in working with the United States to
advance a stable regional order. Secretary Mattis will offer suggestions as to how the
U.S. and Vietnam can develop defence cooperation, particularly maritime security.

Q2. ln your opinions, what are the major topics of discussion between
Vietnam's Minister of Defense and his U.S. counterpart during this visit?
ANSWER: The context for defence cooperation between the United States and
Vietnam has been set in three documents: Memorandum of Understanding on
Advancing Bilateral Defense Cooperation in 20LL, the 2015 ioint Vision Statement on
Defence Cooperation and the Plan of Action to implement these two statements,
2OL8-2O20. There will be no need for Defense Secretary James Mattis and Defence
Minister Ngo Xuan Lich to discuss these agreements in detail.
 2

Secretary Mattis and General Ngo Xuan Lich will likely focus their discussions on
maritime security in the South China Sea, nuclear proliferation in North Korea, and
China. On maritime security, Secretary Mattis will likely raise how both sides can
further advance cooperation, such as more frequent port calls by the U.S. Navy after
the visit of the first U.S. aircraft carrier to Cam Ranh lnternational Port later this year.
Secretary Mattis likely will indicate that the Trump Administration is willing to treat
favourably any request from Vietnam to purchase U.S. arms, platforms and
technology. The issue of future cooperation in co-production of defense technology,
mentioned in the 2015 Joint Vision Statement, could be raised.
Q3. Also, what are the major topics of discussion between Vietnam's Minister of
Defense and his Russia's counterpart during this visit?

ANSWER: General Shoigu is likely to discuss with General Ngo Xuan Lich the
effectiveness of past defence cooperation, including fulfilling agreements already
signed, cooperation in international forums, further arms sales and cooperation in
military training.
The main topics will be on continued Russian support for the maintenance and
servicing of military platforms and weapons already provided to Vietnam (Su-30s,
Gephord frigates, Kilo-class submarines etc.), co-production of military weapon
systems such as missiles, professional military education and training, and possible
new weapon sales.

Q4. What are the U.S.' major points of interest that the Secretary of Defense will
raise with Vietnam's Minister of National Defense when they meet?

ANSWER: Secretary Mattis will brief General Lich on the main content of the U.S. NSS
and U.S. NDS. These documents described both China and Russia as revisionist
powers that seek to dominate other countries economic, diplomatic and security
decisions. Mattis will tell Lich that the U.S. views China as a strategic competitor of
the United States that seeks to undermine the U.S. position in the region.
Mattis will discuss with Lich the extent to which Vietnam will partner with the United
States to create a networked security architecture that contributes to regional
stability and ensures freedom of access to the South China Sea. Specifically, Mattis
will raise how to step up cooperation in sharing intelligence on regional security
developments, and cyber issues.
Q5. Also, what are the major points of interest that the Russian Minister of Defense
will raise when he meets Vietnam's Minister of National Defense?
ANSWER: Defence Minster Shoigu will offer further military-technical cooperation
with Vietnam, continued access of Cam Ranh military port, and possibly offer to sell
the P-400 advanced air defence systems and the MiG-35 to replace Vietnam's retired
MiG-21s.

Q6. ln your view, who will be interested in watching these talks between Vietnam
and the U.S. and Russia? Why?

ANSWER: China will be most interested to learn how far Vietnam intends to develop
defence cooperation with the United States and to what extent this cooperation is
aimed at China. China will also be interested to learn the scope of any future Russian
 a
J

arms sales to Vietnam. Russia currently provides China with 57 percent of all its arms
imports and Russia provides Vietnam with 88 per cent of its arms imports.
All regionalstates in the lndo-Pacific will be interested in the outcome of the visits by
both defence ministers to Vietnam.
Q7. Will any significant arms deal or MOU on defence cooperation be reached
between Vietnam and the U.S. and between Vietnam and Russia during these visits?
Why? lf yes, what are they?
ANSWER: Secretary Mattis' trip is aimed at the strategic level and is unlikely to result
in a specific MOU on arms sales. Why? Because specific service chiefs (army, navy,
air force) and senior defence officials can follow up on understandings reached.
Mattis and Lich are likely to issue a Joint Statement that sets out the trajectory of
defence relations in general terms but also noting specific areas of agreement.
As for the visit by Russia's defence minister, the ball is in Vietnam's court. The two
sides can easily agree to continue defence cooperation but Vietnam must decide if it
wants to make further "big ticket" purchases of weapons from Russia.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "U.S. Defense Secretary to Visit Vietnam - 1,"
Thoyer Consultancy Background Brief , January 22, 20L8. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
IJ.S. Defense Secretary to Visit
Vietnam - 2
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 22,2018

We request your assessment of the following issues:

Q1/ What is the purpose of Defense Secretary Mattis' visit to Vietnam? What will the
two defense ministers discuss?
ANSWER: The main purpose of Secretary of Defense James Mattis' visit to Vietnam is
to promote the goals of the recently released U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS)
and U.S. National Defense Stategy (NDS). These documents give emphasis to
creating a network of U.S. allies and partners to oppose China's drive to be the
hegemonic power in East Asia. Vietnam has been identified in the NSS as one of the
four main partners in Southeast Asia, listed first before lndonesia, Malaysia and
Singapore.

Q2/ What is the U.S. defence policy towards Vietnam under President Trump?
ANSWER: U,S. military policy is to create a coalition of states, including Vietnam, that
will resist China's aggressive attempt to displace the United States as the dominant
power in the lndo-Pacific Region. The Trump Administration is more open to arms
sales to Vietnam than the Obama Administration; in other words human rights will
not influence U.S. arms and defence technology sales to Vietnam.

Q3/ Will the South China Sea be discussed during Mattis' visit? What will be the re-
action from China? Will China put more pressure on Vietnam after Mattis' visit to
Vietnam?
ANSWER: The South China Sea will be prominent in SecDef Mattis' visits to lndonesia
and Vietnam. Under the U.S. NSS and NDS the Trump Administration is trying to
orchestrate a coalition of countries to oppose Chinese militarization of the South
China Sea.

Of course, China will employ both indirect and direct pressures on Vietnam to limit
defence cooperation with the United States.

Q4/ How will China react when Vietnam hosts the first ever visit by a U.S. aircraft
carrier to Vietnam?
ANSWER: Vietnam has been very clever in giving access to Cam Ranh lnternational
Port to the navies of many countries - Singapore, Japan, the United States and
China. China will be constrained in its response as it permits U.S. aircraft carriers to
 2

visit Hong Kong. China is also aware of the symbolic nature of friendly port
visits. Besides the Chinese Navy visited Cam Ranh lnternational Port in the wake of
the first U.S. Navy visit to this port.
Q5/ What is your assessment of the visit by Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu
to Vietnam on Tuesday? What will they discuss?
ANSWER: The visit of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is an example of
Vietnam's vinta.ge policy of "diversifying and multilateralizing" relations with the
great powers. Shoigu's visit was engineered by Hanoi to take the heat of the visit of
the U.S. Secretary of Defense. Russia provides China with 68 per cent of its arms
imports, and Russia provides Vietnam with 88 per cent of its arms imports. China
cannot afford to protest too loudly. General Shoigu's purpose is to advance the
comprehensive strategic partnership with Vietnam and ensure that the current
momentum continues, he will offer further sales of advanced weaponry.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "U.S. Defense Secretary to Visit Vietnam - 2,"
Thayer Consultoncy Background Brief , January 22, 2018. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
IJ.S. Defense Secretary to Visit
Vietnam - 3
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 22,2018

of Defense James Mattis is scheduled to visit Vietnam on

U.S. Secretary 23'd January.
We request your assessment of the following issues:

Ql. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis will visit Vietnam this week and meet his
counterpart Ngo Xuan Lich. Last year, they met for the first time in Washington.
What is your assessment about the impact of this visit on Vietnam - U.S. defence
cooperation?
ANSWER: Secretary of Defense James Mattis' visit was welcomed in the joint
statement issued by Presidents Donald Trump and Tran Dai Quang in November last
year. Secretary Mattis will attempt to raise defence cooperation with Vietnam across
the board by proposing increased naval interaction, intelligence exchanges and arms
and technology sales.

Q2. ln your opinion, what are the priority areas in the defence relationship between
Vietnam and the U.S. under the Trump Administration?
ANSWER: The Trump Administration recently issued the U.S. National Security
Strategy (NSS), while the Pentagon issued its U.S. National Defense Strategy (NDS).
Both these documents identify China and Russia as revisionist powers seeking to
undermine U.S. strategic dominance.
It is clear from both the NSS and NDS that the United States has given priority to
developing relations with Vietnam as a partner in defence cooperation to oppose
China's drive to exert hegemony over the East Asia region. The U.S. has set a priority
to enlist Vietnam as a security partner through defence cooperation, intelligence
sharing, and coordination of approaches in multilateral forums.

Q3. The first visit by a US aircraft carrier to Vietnam is scheduled for March. What is
your assessment of this visit?
ANSWER: Vietnam has opened the Cam Ranh lnternational Port to the navies of all
countries. Many countries - Singapore, Japan, lndia, the United States, Australia,
China - have already visited. No country has sent an aircraft carrier. The forthcoming
visit of a U.S. aircraft carrier is symbolic of Vietnam's attempt to have the major
powers balance each other. Vietnam consistently welcomes the presence of the U.S.
Navy in Southeast Asia's waters - as Iong as it contributes positively to regional
 2

security. To put this in perspective, China permits U.S. aircraft carriers to visit Hong
Kong.

Q4. Secretary Mattis visited Asia many times during his first year in office. What can
be implied from this?
ANSWER: Secretary of Defense Mattis' visit to Vietnam and lndonesia is indicative of
the importance the United States military gives to maintaining a balance of power in
East Asia. Mattis will likely attend the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in May-June
and China later in the year. This is a significant commitment of his time and
illustrates the importance the U.S. places on enlisting Vietnam and lndonesia as
security partners.
Q5. Regarding the South China Sea issue, although there are very few strong
statements, the U.S Navy. has conducted many patrols in this region. What is your
assessment about the U.S. policy toward the South China Sea dispute?

ANSWER: The Trump Administration has conducted more freedom of navigation

operational patrols than the Obama Administration. ln addition, the United States
has indicated its concerns about Chinese militarization in bilateral statements with
key allies, such as Australia, in statements by the Trilateral Security Dialogue (U.S.,
Japan and Australia) and the Quadrilateral Dialogue Defense Forum (U.S., Japan,
Australia and lndia).
Both the U.S. NSS and NDS highlight China's actions in the South China Sea as a
major concern of the United States. The NDS commits the United States to creating a
"networked Security architecture capable of deterring aggression, maintaining
stability, and ensuring free access to common domains [e.g. the South China Sea]."

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "U.S. Defense Secretary to Visit Vietnam - 3,"
Thoyer Consultoncy Background Brief , January 22, 20t8. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit th:

ano
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of curent regional security issues
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officiallY
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
LJ.S. Defense Secretary to Visit
Vietnam - 4
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 23,2018

Both Russia's Defence Minister and the US Secretary of Defence will visit Vietnam
this week. We request your assessment of the following issues:
Q1. What is your assessment of the visits by the top defence officials from Russia
and the United States to Vietnam this week? Why do these two visits take place in
the same week?
ANSWER: Both visits are part of reciprocal high-level exchanges between Vietnam
and Russia and Vietnam and the Unitdd States. The timing of these visits suggests
they are part of Vietnam's policy of "diversifying and multilateralizing" its foregn
relations with the major powers. lt is in Vietnam's interest to demonstrate that it is
independent and contributes positively to regional security, thus both Russia and the
United States have an interest is assisting Vietnam. Vietnam, for example, can
discuss defence cooperation with both ministers and move forward when it suits
Vietnam's national interest.
Q2. Last year, Vietnam's Defence Minister Ngo Xuan Lich met his counterpart in
Washington D.C. And nearly one year later, Secretary Mattis comes to Vietnam.
What do you think about the outlook for defence co-operation between Vietnam
and the United States?

ANSWER: Defence cooperation between Vietnam and the United States is structured
by three major documents, a Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2OLt, a Joint
Vision Statement agreed to in 2015, and a work plan for 2Ot8-2020.
Secretary of Defense James Mattis is coming to Hanoi to promote the new U.S.
National Security Strategy (NSS) and new U.S. National Defense Strategy (NDS). The
NSS lists Vietnam first among a group of four Southeast Asian countries that the
Trump Administration views as partners for regional security. The NDS has three
main "lines of effort" the second of which is for the U.S. to build more trust with
allies and partners. This includes Vietnam.
The NDS highlights strategic competition among the major powers as the primary
concern of the United States. Under the NDS the U.S. seeks to shape a "free and
open lndo-Pacific region. Specifically, Mattis will sound out General Ngo Xuan Lich on
how the two countries can work together to create a "networked security
architecture" that maintains regional stability and ensures free access to the South
 2

China Sea. ln this respect, Mattis will investigate whether Vietnam would like to step
up professional military education by sending more officers to the United States.
Marris also would like to explore the possibility of joint military training.

Q3. The South China Sea will be discussed, of course. Will there be any agreement on
arms sales? What kind of weapons do you think Vietnam is interested in?
ANSWER: The two defense ministers will discuss a range of defence cooperation
activities. Secretary Mattis' priority is to determine what level of engagement
Vietnam wants to pursue with the United States and what specific needs that
Vietnam would like addressed. The U.S. wants to assist Vietnam in protecting its
sovereignty over its territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zone.
Vietnam has already indicated it is interested in acquiring a second Hamilton-class
cutter for its navy. President Trump touted the sale of missiles to Vietnam. Vietnam
is interested in developing its capacity in lntelligence Surveillance and
Reconnaissance (lSR) so the sale of patrol aircraft and coastal radar could be on the
table. Finally, under the 2015 Joint Vision Statement, the two sidesagreed to explore
co-production of defence technology.
It is unlikely that an arms sales agreement will be signed during Mattis' visit. lt is
more likely the two ministers will reach general agreement on defence relations.
Mattis aims to build trust with Vietnam and move forward at a pace Vietnam is
comfortable with.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "U.S. Defense Secretary to Visit Vietnam - 4,"
Thoyer Consultoncy Bockground Brief , January 23, 2018. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.