Myanmar Economic Outlook

December 18, 2017

The manufacturing PMI recorded a second consecutive month of expansion in November,

chiefly led by strong domestic demand, which should bode well for Q4 growth. However, a
second round of reforms is still needed to speed up economic growth according to the IMF,
which concluded an annual Article IV consultation on 17 November. On 7 December, the new
Myanmar Companies Act, which relaxes foreign investment regulations, was finally signed,
allowing foreigners to hold an up to 35% stake in Burmese companies. Myanmar is, however,
still facing significant international criticism over the Rohingya crisis; U.S. Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson has called it “ethnic cleansing” and analysts warned it could affect development
finance and investor sentiment.

Myanmar Economic Growth

The economic outlook remains favorable, but risks are tilted to the downside. The banking sector
remains fragile following new regulations, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis could dent
investor sentiment and tourism. In addition, the government’s finances still suffer from fiscal and
current account deficits. Our panel sees GDP expanding 7.4% in 2018, unchanged from last
month’s forecast, and 7.5% in 2019.

Myanmar Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 7.3 8.4 8.0 7.3 6.3
Unemployment Rate
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
50.5 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.3
1,182 1,180 1,275 1,148 1,269
59.7 60.1 65.6 59.5 66.3
5.4 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8
0.9 -1.3 -0.9 -4.4 -4.6
40.7 33.2 29.9 34.9 35.8
2.8 5.7 5.1 10.0 7.0
10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
851.7 983.8 1,031 1,301 1,350
640.7 933.6 984.4 1,163 1,235
-4.0 -4.9 -3.3 -5.2 -6.5
-2.4 -2.9 -2.1 -3.1 -4.3
2.4 2.3 7.3 -5.4 -
9.8 11.4 18.0 11.4 -
7.4 9.1 10.8 16.8 -
 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exports (annual variation in %) 1.5 16.0 58.0 1.2 -
Imports (annual variation in %) 27.2 22.9 17.7 3.8 -
International Reserves (USD) 7.0 4.5 4.8 3.8 4.6
External Debt (% of GDP) 13.1 12.1 9.6 10.8 -

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Myanmar Facts
Value Change Date
Bond Yield 13.00 0.0 % Aug 15
Exchange Rate 1,369 0.0 % Dec 06

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