China’s rising naval power means trouble for India

HARSH V. PANT

New Delhi will need to look to the US for help resisting Beijing’s maritime ambitions.

Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning Source: Wikipedia

MSR

China’s navy launched its second aircraft carrier this week, five years after
commissioning its first. The Type 001A, China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier,
is likely to be operational by 2020. Beijing’s uneasy neighbors watched as the People’s
Liberation Army Navy indulged in an elaborate ceremony to notify the wider world of its
arrival as a serious naval power.

Such displays are not out of the ordinary. As a rising power, China’s military
advancement is to be expected. If Beijing wants to project power far beyond its shores, a
blue-water navy is a prerequisite.

However, China’s naval development will be seen in a different light because the country
is entangled in multiple maritime disputes around its periphery. Its naval presence is also
growing in the Indian Ocean and the larger Pacific.

President Xi Jinping has launched defense reforms to shift resources from land to air and
sea. The Chinese defense ministry has been articulating the need for its navy to gradually
shift focus from “offshore waters defense” to “open-seas protection.”

Even with its growing might, China’s navy remains far from a serious challenger to the
formidable US Navy. But regional powers now have to seriously rethink their naval
options.
India faces some real dilemmas. New Delhi isn’t officially allied with any power and is
still struggling to reform its military, even as China’s challenge to Indian interests grows
by the day.

At the global level, China refuses to recognize India’s rise and seeks to thwart it in every
forum, from the United Nations Security Council to the Nuclear Supplier’s Group.

At the regional level, Beijing is taking a consistently pro-Pakistan position on issues

ranging from Afghanistan to Kashmir. Bilaterally, the disputed-border issue is getting
trickier. China recently renamed unilaterally six places in the Indian state of Arunachal
Pradesh in apparent retaliation against the Dalai Lama’s visit to India’s easternmost state.

China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean region continues to grow. Chinese submarines
have been making regular forays in the Indian Ocean region since December 2013 on the
pretext of antipiracy patrols. Its Maritime Silk Road initiative aims to gain a higher
profile in the Indian Ocean Region, while reducing India’s natural geographic advantages.

In the garb of protecting its trade and energy sea lanes, China is building partnerships
with countries around the Indian Ocean periphery. From Djibouti to Hambantota in
SriLanka to Gwadar in Pakistan, new military facilities are being constructed to project
Chinese naval power.

For New Delhi, this looks like strategic encirclement at a time when there are growing
concerns about Chinese intentions. Not surprisingly, India is investing to ramp up its
naval power. Unlike China, India has been operating an aircraft carrier since 1961, but
delays and shoddy planning continue to mar its aspirations.

India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier, the 40,000-tonne INS Vikrant, was launched in
2013, but its commissioning has been delayed to 2020. It will be another decade before
the second indigenous carrier, the 65,000-tonne INS Vishal, is up and running. As a
result, the 44,570-tonne INS Vikramaditya will be India’s only carrier for the next few
years.

China’s state-run Global Times newspaper took a swipe at Indian efforts recently,
arguing, “New Delhi is perhaps too impatient to develop an aircraft carrier. The country
is still in its initial stage of industrialization, and there will be many technical obstacles
that stand in the way of a build-up of aircraft carriers.” It continued, “New Delhi should
perhaps be less eager to speed up the process of building aircraft carriers in order to
counter China’s growing sway in the Indian Ocean, and focus more on its economy.”
India will have to focus more on antiship capabilities, especially submarines and antiship
missiles. But beyond platforms, India is now actively engaged in the maritime domain
with likeminded countries in the region. Naval cooperation with countries like Australia,
Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam is a top priority of Indian defense diplomacy.

Yet without active participation from the US, the regional states lack the ability to resist
China’s maritime ambitions. The Trump administration will have to think beyond North
Korea in crafting policy on the Indo-Pacific. Otherwise, China’s aircraft carrier display
will be one more step toward regional maritime dominance by Beijing.

This commentary was published in The Wall Street Journal.

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