Simple seaseonal

Model Statistics
Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18)
Number of Stationary Number of
Model Predictors R-squared RMSE MAPE Statistics DF Sig. Outliers
Volume_Ekspor- 0 .585 17375.203 22.913 16.353 16 .429 0
Model_1

Simple non seasonal

Model Statistics
Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18)
Number of Stationary Number of
Model Predictors R-squared RMSE MAPE Statistics DF Sig. Outliers
Volume_Ekspor- 0 .022 20526.144 30.927 9.785 17 .912 0
Model_1

Hot Linier Trend

Model Statistics
Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18)
Number of Stationary Number of
Model Predictors R-squared RMSE MAPE Statistics DF Sig. Outliers
Volume_Ekspor- 0 .600 20535.379 31.327 19.588 16 .239 0
Model_1

Brown Linier Trend

Model Statistics
Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18)
Number of Stationary Number of
Model Predictors R-squared RMSE MAPE Statistics DF Sig. Outliers
Volume_Ekspor- 0 .533 21203.571 32.878 15.794 17 .539 0
Model_1
Damped Trend

Model Statistics
Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18)
Number of Stationary Number of
Model Predictors R-squared RMSE MAPE Statistics DF Sig. Outliers
Volume_Ekspor- 0 .022 20979.840 30.858 9.598 15 .844 0
Model_1

Winter Additive

Model Statistics
Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18)
Number of Stationary Number of
Model Predictors R-squared RMSE MAPE Statistics DF Sig. Outliers
Volume_Ekspor- 0 .570 17943.816 23.628 16.086 15 .376 0
Model_1

Winter Multiplicative

Model Statistics
Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18)
Number of Stationary Number of
Model Predictors R-squared RMSE MAPE Statistics DF Sig. Outliers
Volume_Ekspor- 0 .541 18819.910 30.172 37.683 15 .001 0
Model_1

Hasil forcast
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Model Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 Ma

Volume_Ekspor-Model_1 Forecast 76856.35 75717.85 80480.07 90044.61

UCL 111830.82 125154.50 141017.24 159941.09

LCL 41881.88 26281.21 19942.89 20148.13
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