What is the Future for SCO?

ZHAO HUASHENG
 Article
 August 29, 2012
Summary: Five issues are of critical importance for maintaining the
dynamics of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in the near to medium
future.
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Five issues are of critical importance for maintaining the dynamics of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in the near to medium future.

First, the SCO should assume its responsibility to maintain regional stability.

This is essential for the Central Asian region. At present and for the
foreseeable future, possible regional instability is one of the biggest problems
the region faces. Under such circumstances, as a regional organization, the
SCO has to respond to the region’s concern by assuming its responsibility to
deal with regional crisis. It answers the core needs of the region. Otherwise,
the SCO will certainly lose its popularity and be marginalized in regional
management.

While not denying the political principle of non-interference in internal

affairs, the SCO should follow a policy of “constructive engagement” that
would try to settle a crisis, prevent its escalation, and restore stability by
taking active steps based on international laws. It is obvious that the SCO
cannot guarantee cure-all solutions, given the complexity of the situation and
the insufficiency of the resources at its disposal; however, its contribution
could make a difference. More importantly, it is the right path for the SCO
politically.

Second, the SCO should play a more visible role in Afghanistan.

This has been high on the SCO’s agenda because of the Afghanistan’s
proximity to SCO’s member states in terms of both geography and security.
However, with the on-going withdrawal of American and NATO forces and
scheduled transfer of administrative and security responsibilities to the
Afghan government by 2014, the SCO is facing a situation that is totally new,
with uncertain prospects. The surrounding countries, including the member
states of the SCO, will certainly be the first and most seriously affected if the
situation in Afghanistan takes an unexpected turn. Concern for the future of
Afghanistan is great among the member states of the SCO. Although the SCO
cannot resolve the Afghanistan problem, it should play a more active and
substantial role in helping to resolve it to meet the security demands of its
member states and of the region.

As an organization that consists of most of the neighbors of Afghanistan, the

SCO possesses considerable potential to aid Afghanistan, particularly in the
economic and humanitarian spheres. The SCO must find a decision how to
realize its potential in a more effective way.

Third, the SCO should make a breakthrough in economic areas.

The SCO has achieved great success in the area of security by creating a
common approach to combating terrorism, separatism, and extremism, and
by forming an overall cooperative mechanism among the functional organs of
the member states relating to security issues. However, economic cooperation
within the SCO lags behind and the results are not satisfying. Among the
problems and difficulties that stand in its way are the different visions and
approaches of the member states, particularly of China and Russia, although
all of them agree on carrying out economic cooperation in principle. The
economy is one of the three pillars of the SCO (alongside security and
humanitarian cooperation), and economic benefits are very desirable to the
member states, especially for the Central Asian countries. Further delay in
economic cooperation will disappoint those member states and hurt the
organization’s reputation. The SCO has to make great efforts to step forward in
the economic area to bring about tangible gains.

Fourth, the SCO should make the Eurasian Union a partner.

The development of the relationship between the SCO and Eurasian Union
will have a significant impact on the SCO’s future. Prior to the presidential
election in March 2012, President Putin put forward the new Eurasian
integration project, which has four planned phases: the Customs Union, the
Common Economic Space, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Eurasian
Union. At the present time, the Eurasian Union is in the phase of the Eurasian
Common Economic Space, which includes Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan,
with Kyrgyzstan waiting to be accepted. The Eurasian Union is dominated by
Russia, and it overlaps significantly with the SCO in terms of members and
functions. Many people regard the SCO and the Eurasian Union as
competitors and predict that the competition between them will intensify with
time.

The SCO should form constructive relations with the Eurasian Union.
Politically, they should be partners. Functionally, they could be parallels. This
kind of relationship is possible for the SCO and the Eurasian Union. The two
organizations share major member states. This creates natural conditions for
them to be political partners. Economically, the SCO and the Eurasian Union
are not doomed to exclude each other. Actually, the SCO and the Eurasian
Economic Community, the precursor of the Eurasian Union, have been
coexisting from the very beginning. The Eurasian Economic Community came
into being in 2000, one year before the SCO. The Eurasian Union is supported
by the traditional linkages of the former Soviet republics, while the SCO is
based on newly established economic connections. Both of them have a solid
foundation in promoting economic cooperation, and both of them could be
beneficial for the member states.

Fifth, the SCO should handle the issue of expansion properly.

Whether or not the SCO should expand is an important question. Russia

actively advocates for India and Pakistan to become members in the SCO,
while China is treating this with caution, worrying that it may lead to a
reduction in the organization’s efficiency. China and Russia, along with the
other member states, can continue their discussion of the issue, but it is
important that the SCO should not let this issue negatively affect the internal
solidarity among the member states, particularly between China and Russia. It
is also important for the SCO to predict all the possible effects the expansion
could bring about and prevent the most undesirable outcomes from
happening, if it does finally decide to expand. At the same time, the SCO
should make the best use of the possibilities that the expansion could provide.

Zhao Huasheng is a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai. His most

recent book, “Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Analysis and Outlook,” was
published in Beijing in June 2012 by the Publishing House of Contemporary
Affairs.