Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2,928,350
2,904,978
2,900,000 2,889,010
2,905,943
Population
2,858,681 This begs the question: why is the population not growing? The answer lies in two
2,848,353 2,868,312 important factors. First, the state experienced a dramatic decline in births as a
2,850,000 result of aggressive policies to reduce teenage pregnancy. These numbers are
2,852,994
reported in slides 5-7. The population is also not growing because Mississippi is not
a new Hispanic destination. In fact, the state experienced the least positive net
international migration. These numbers are reported in slides 9-12. If Mississippi
had not experienced a reduction in numbers of births and had experienced the
2,800,000
same level of international in-migration as other states, Mississippi’s total
population would have continued to grow. Another key factor is that only a few
counties experience a significant negative net domestic migration (see slide 12).
2,750,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 4
Births by the Numbers
Annual Number of Births, 2011-2017
40,000
39,746
39,500 39,430
39,000
38,715
38,578
38,500
38,505
38,000 37,951
37,373
37,500
Overall Decline: -2,373
37,000
36,500
36,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
An important factor that needs to be accounted for in the population growth is the number of births. Mississippi
experienced a declining annual number of births. As a result, Mississippi’s total population would have had a net
positive growth if the number of births would have remained the same since 2011. Other indicators suggest that the
decline in birth stems primarily from a strong policy to reduce teen pregnancy. These numbers are presented in the
next two slides.
4.50 4.30
4.10 4.07 4.06
3.89 3.82 3.90
4.00 3.63 3.64 3.55
3.34
Teenage Pregnancy Rate
3.50
3.01
3.00 2.74
2.52
2.50 2.25
2.03
1.92
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Compared to the nation, Mississippi experienced one of the fastest reductions in teenage pregnancy. The teen
pregnancy rate declined by 361 percent since 2000.
3.50 3.37
Percent That Experienced Birth Event
3.00
2.50
Statewide: 1.9
2.00
1.68 1.77
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Abstinence-only Abstinence-plus No abstinence education
Curriculum Type
Mississippi has adopted an aggressive abstinence program by providing two types of curriculum. Official statistics
from the Department of Health show that these programs had a significant impact on reducing teen pregnancy in the
K12 system.
Louisiana 7,696
Oklahoma 7,322 and Hispanics. Unlike other
Kentucky 7,014
Iowa 6,836 states, Mississippi is not a
Hawaii 6,703
Kansas 6,198 new Hispanic destination. The
South Carolina 5,447
Utah 5,019 state ranks as one of the
Nebraska 4,853
Rhode Island 4,798 lowest in the country.
Alabama 4,475
District of Columbia 4,160
Arkansas 3,499
New Mexico 2,771
Delaware 2,722
New Hampshire 2,236
Mississippi 2,087
Idaho 1,928
Maine 1,578
Alaska 1,557
North Dakota 1,489
South Dakota 1,273
Vermont 933
West Virginia 867
Wyoming 328
Montana 296
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000
International Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 11
Domestic Migration: Gain and Loss to Other States
2016-2017
Moving To Mississippi Moving out of Mississippi
Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data – 2015-2016.
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls
13
Millennials by the Numbers
Share of Millennials (Ages 16-35) in State Population
District of Columbia 37.8
Utah 30.6
North Dakota 30.1
Alaska 29.0
Texas 28.7
California 28.7
Colorado 28.5
New York 28.0
Massachusetts 28.0
Rhode Island 27.9
Louisiana 27.9
Oklahoma 27.5
Washington 27.4
Georgia 27.4
Illinois 27.3
Nebraska 27.2
Kansas 27.2
Nation 27.1
Wyoming 27.0
Mississippi 27.0 When we look at the total
Indiana 27.0
Arizona 27.0 share of the millennial
Virginia 26.9
Oregon 26.8 population, Mississippi is
Nevada 26.8
right on the national
State
Iowa 26.8
New Mexico 26.7
Minnesota 26.7 average, suggesting that
Maryland 26.7 the state’s millennial
Missouri 26.6
Idaho 26.6 population is stable.
Arkansas 26.5
Tennessee 26.4
South Dakota 26.4
Alabama 26.4
Michigan 26.3
Wisconsin 26.2
Kentucky 26.2
Pennsylvania 26.1
Ohio 26.1
Vermont 26.0
South Carolina 26.0
North Carolina 26.0
Connecticut 26.0
Delaware 25.9
Montana 25.8
New Jersey 25.7
Hawaii 25.4
New Hampshire 25.2
Florida 24.9
West Virginia 24.4
Maine 23.6
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
Percent
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t 15
Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers
Estimates on migration flow
from the American
Community Survey indicate
that millennials have the
least negative net
outmigration in the state.
Millennials (17-35) 18% This is consistent with
current literature suggesting
that millennials are not as
mobile as other generations.
The estimates from the
American Community Survey
indicate that the largest
negative net outmigration in
the state are experienced by
people in the age group of
Generation X (35-50) with their Children 82%
35-50, commonly known as
Generation X. Estimates
from the American
Community Survey also
indicate that baby boomers
experience a positive net in
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% migration, suggesting that
this age group are growing in
the state.
19%
20%
10%
0%
Community College Community College Community College University In-State University Out-of-State
Associate of Arts Associate of Applied Certificate
Science
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
In-State Out-of-State
Over the last 10 years, the number of out-of-state students has grown at a faster rate than in-state students.
UM 44.38
MSU 33.64
ASU 24.24
This graph reports percentage
JSU 23.39
of university total enrollment
made up of out-of-state
students. Ole Miss and
MVSU 22.81
Mississippi State are the
universities that attract more
USM 20.88 out-of-state students.
DSU 17.17
UMMC 15.25
MUW 14.75
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00
Percent
1,102,603
1,081,138
1,090,000 1,096,802
1,080,000 1,076,488
1,085,748
1,070,000
1,074,617
1,060,000
1,050,000
1,040,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
Estimates from BLS indicate that the number of people employed is reaching pre-recession numbers. The state is only
6,400 shy of pre-recession numbers. Typically, the state enters recessions one year later, and the recovery is also
delayed one year relative to the national trends. As a result, the number employed is expected to grow for the next few
years.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017.
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv
23
Average Annual Wages Adjusted for Inflation
(Constant 2017 Dollars)
$42,000
Average Annual Pay (2017 Dollars)
$41,000 $40,532
$36,000
$35,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
Estimates from BLS indicate that wages, adjusted for inflation, have grown over the last 17 years. These estimates are
based on 2017 constant dollars.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017.
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv
24
Mississippi General Fund Contributions
Individual Income Tax Sales Tax
$1,900,000,000 $2,100,000,000
$1,800,000,000 $2,050,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$1,700,000,000
$1,950,000,000
$1,600,000,000
General Fund Dollars
$1,100,000,000 $1,650,000,000
$1,000,000,000 $1,600,000,000
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year Year
Contributions of income and sales tax to the general fund have experienced upward trends over the last 10
years. Individual income tax has shown an increase in tax payers, and the increase in sales tax shows an increase in
disposable income as the result of real wage increases.