Chair of Entrepreneurship

Seminar Paper

Negotiation Analysis of Cuban Missile Crisis

Negotiation Analysis Seminar

Supervised by Prof. Dr. Matthias Raith

&

M. Sc. Charlott Menke

Summer Term 2017

Authors:

Ayça Sabah 217221 ayca.sabah@st.ovgu.de

Özgür Erol 217021 ozgur.erol@st.ovgu.de

Date of submission: 07/08/2017

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Table of Contents

List of abbreviations iii

Abstract iv
1. Introduction 1
3. Negotiation Parties 3
3.1 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics 3

3.2 United States of America 5

3.3 Republic of Cuba 6

4. Background of Negotiations: Relations between parties 8

4.1 U.S. - Soviet Union Relations 8

4.2 U.S. - Cuba Relations 9

4.3 Soviet Union - Cuba Relations 10

6. Issue Evaluations of Parties 13

6.1. Union of Soviet Socialist Republics 13

6.2. United States of America 15

6.3. Republic of Cuba 17

7. Negotiation Analysis with BATNA Method 18

8. Discussion and Conclusion 20
References v

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List of abbreviations
BATNA Best Alternative to the Negotiated Agreement
DANSS Decision and Negotiation Support System
EX-COMM The Executive Committee of the National Security Council
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
U.S. United States of America

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Abstract
In October 1962, world was in the edge of a nuclear war due to the reconnaissance of Soviet
nuclear missiles placement in Cuba by an American U-2 spy plane. The competition between
Soviet Union and United States of America was in the hottest period on the nuclear arms race.
Soviet Union claimed that the missile placement is for the defense of Cuba and the Soviet
territories in case of possible attack. However, United States refused to accept this argument and
declared the missiles as offensive weapons, contrary to the warnings given to Soviet Union earlier.
Menacing toned negotiations has been held between parties by the representatives John F.
Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev. This seminar paper gives an overview of the negotiation analysis
between parties, aiming to review the efficiency of the result of the negotiation. At the beginning,
negotiation parties and the background of relations has been given. An evaluation matrix has been
drawn up that focuses on the conflicts and the interest of parties. Subsequently, the analysis was
carried out by weighting the respective focus areas. Through the evaluation matrix and the
application of the negotiation methodology "Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement”
(BATNA), results have been placed on the efficiency plane by using the Decision and Negotiation
Support System (DANSS) software. Results showed that both parties have a high level of
satisfaction through the issues accepted. Finally, possible reasons for not achieving the efficiency
frontier has been given.

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1. Introduction
After the World War II, Soviet Union has become the principal adversary of the United States
(hereafter referred to as U.S.) with an intense competition on power. Both parties were showing
off their strengths at the earliest opportunity through developments in production, technology or
science. In 1962, this struggle on power was about to cause a nuclear war. Soviet Union’s plan
was secretly placing the nuclear missiles in Republic of Cuba (hereafter referred to as Cuba) for
defense purposes against U.S. or to keep as a display of power in the future. It has been known
that Soviets was supporting Cuba with armaments to use in defense of the island before the crisis.
In 1962, Soviet Union came up with an offer to place the missiles on the island to defend Castro’s
regime when there is a need. (Fursenko A./Naftali T., 2006) This was an offer that can not be
rejected by Castro since after the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, U.S. might carry out a second
attack.

After the events become evident, U.S. felt threatened and immediately started to debate on
possible actions against the Soviets. During the EX-COMM (The Executive Committee of the
National Security Council) meetings, John F. Kennedy was under the pressure of his advisors
suggestions in favor of a military attack or invasion where the Soviets were ready to use the nuclear
missiles in defense of Cuba.

The representatives of each party were encumbered with a major responsibility of the lives of
millions living in both continents. Although threat was a part of almost all of the dialogs, both
parties aimed to avoid from an active nuclear contest. In further sections, it will be revealed the
effect of the background of the negotiations by presenting the history and relations between
parties.

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2. Timeline
October 14 - U.S. reconnaissance planes fly over Cuba

October 15 - Evidence of the site preparation and Soviet nuclear missile placement has been
photographed
October 16 - EX-COMM meetings begin: Kennedy’s advisors debate over the possible actions

October 17 - U.S. Military starts to head south to be prepared for a possible attack

October 18 - Yet unrevealing the crisis; Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko states that any Soviet
aid is purely defensive after being reminded by Kennedy that the offensive
weapon supply to Cuba would not be acceptable
October 20 - During EX-COMM meetings, potential actions of U.S. are determined as:
quarantine on the delivery of the armaments, attack on missile sites and invasion
October 21 - No guarantee can be given by U.S. air forces on the 100% destruction of the
missiles during in a possible attack against Cuba
October 22 - Kennedy’s writes his first letter to Khrushchev and publicly announces the
quarantine. States that at all cost, U.S. is determined to remove the threat
October 23 - U.S. naval fleet place around the island of Cuba, Soviet submarines threaten the
quarantine
October 24 - Khrushchev replies Kennedy stating that the threat on Soviets and Cuba is
unacceptable and missiles are only for defensive purposes
October 25 - Soviets accused with false assurance during the United Nations meeting, some
Soviet freighters turn back before facing the quarantine
October 26 - John Scali, ABC News reporter is approached by Aleksandr Fomin, Soviet embassy
staff, in return of removal of missiles; non-invasion of Cuba should be guaranteed
in addition to the removal of quarantine. Right after Khrushchev writes in his
letter the same demands
October 27 - A second letter from Khrushchev, demanding the U.S. missile displacement in
Turkey, Robert Kennedy unofficially meets Soviet representatives to accept deal
in silent
October 28 - Radio Moscow announces the removal of missiles in exchange for removing the
quarantine and a guarantee that the U.S. will never invade Cuba

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3. Negotiation Parties
3.1 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the Soviet Union or Soviets, had its origins in 1917 with the
October Revolution leaded by Vladimir Lenin as successor to the Russian Empire of tsar. The
revolution started with the riots in major cities during the World War I when Russian Army was
not strong enough to dominate over. (CIA World Fact Book, 2017) After civil war era, in 1921
Lenin’s supporters succeeded eliminating opponents first in Russia and following in
Transcaucasia (divided in 1936 into Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia), Belarus and Ukraine. In
1922 Soviet Union has been established first with this four Soviet Republics and until 1940 in
chronological order Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Estonia,
Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania followed the constitution. Until the end of it’s existence in year 1991,
Soviet Union was constituted with farther autonomous republics, provinces and districts in
addition keeping the hegemony on the satellite socialist republics. (Britannica, 2017)

Soviet revolution aimed to adapt the Marxist ideology based on democratic and social control of
lands and means of production by the proletariat. Lenin addressed the economic substance of
socialism through providing high living standards to socialist countries better than capitalists and
the necessity of an international socialist revolution to sustain the Soviet regime. After Lenin’s
death in 1924, Joseph Stalin became the leader of Soviet Union and adapted a nationally limited
socialism in practice. (Warde W. F., 1961) Soviet Union developed heavily in industry in this era.
In Stalin's regime, the opposition was silenced and dominated with cultural purges, given supreme
punishments or life imprisonment throughout the army and government. Leon Trotsky as a strong
opponent, a revolutionist alongside with Lenin has been exiled during this period and later found
murdered. (Biography, 2017)

During the World War II, Germany invaded the Soviet Union in spite of the Molotov-Ribbentrop
non-aggression pact signed between Hitler and Stalin in year 1939. With the counterattack of
Soviets, Berlin captured in May 1945 by Soviet Union, leading the victory against Germany and
starting competition with the United States about the interest on Berlin. After the World War II
Soviet Union increased the influence in Eastern Europe with satellite socialist republics in Poland,
Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Bulgaria and Romania. (Britannica, 2017) The victory of the war
lead the Soviet Union to emerge as a global power and the principal adversary of the United States.
(CIA World Fact Book, 2017)

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During the Cold War era (1947-1991) Soviet Union and United States were in an endless
competition in terms of production, technology and science. In the year 1945 United States had
its first atomic explosion aiming to shorten the war era and gaining the sole possession eliminating
Soviets. Four year later in 1949 Soviet Union exploded its first atomic bomb. This ended the U.S.
owned victory in nuclear armaments field and launched the Cold War.

In 1953 after Stalin’s death Georgi Malenkov became prime minister. This year he announced that
Soviet Union has its first hydrogen bomb (which has greater destructive power than the atomic
bomb), only one year after United States has tested its own hydrogen bomb. (Atomcentral, 2017)
In 1955 Nikolay Bulganin, an ally of the following premier Nikita Khrushchev became prime
minister. As Soviets focused on the rocket science as their crucial military assets, the
developments lead a success both in army and also in the space race by launching the first artificial
earth satellite, Sputnik, to the space through a intercontinental ballistic missile in 1957. This
success had a big impact on United States and started the space race by the constitution of NASA.
(NASA, 2017)

In 1958 Khrushchev replaced Bulganin defeating a coup attempt led by Malenkov and became
prime minister. Khrushchev was the son of a coal miner family. He was active in politics by joining
socialist movement after revolution and became Communist Party member in year 1929. He had
a key role in the victory of Stalingrad as political commissar and was in the inner circle of Stalin
during his politic life before his death. Despite that Khrushchev’s leadership consisted the heavy
criticism on Stalin, he reaffirmed and formalized Stalin’s doctrines that dissent Lenin’s socialist
principals and class struggle. (Warde W. F., 1961)

According to his son Sergei Khrushchev states in an interview record, he was a calculated person.
He had the image of being very emotional and he liked to use this to threaten the people. He is
known by once taking his shoe off to brandish at the United Nations meeting. He is also known
by his words “We will show you Kuzka's mother!” to President Nixon in year 1959. This can be
interpreted as “We'll show you who's boss!” (Fram M., 2015)

Khrushchev attended meetings with Presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy, and unlike Stalin in
1959, during his tour of the United States, he announced his desire of easing the relations between
the West and the Soviet Union. In the meantime, Khrushchev also showed his commitment to the
socialism to the Soviet conservatives. In 1960 a U-2 reconnaissance aircraft had been detected and

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shot down in Soviet territory by Soviet air defense troops. After this Khrushchev cancelled a
summit meeting with President Eisenhower to demonstrate national prestige. Khrushchev
demanded the western sectors in Berlin to be incorporated with East Germany. When this rejected
and with the increasing number of migration to the West Germany from East, he approved the
construction of Berlin wall in 1961. (The Office, 2017) In the same year Soviet astronaut Yuri
Gagarin headed the moon and became the first human in space. In 1962 Cuban missile crisis
erupted with the reconnaissance of the Soviet missiles placement works in Cuba, 90 miles away
from the U.S border.

3.2 United States of America

United States of America declared independence in 1776 and recognized in 1783. Between 1775
and 1783, thirteen colonies won the War of Independence and became independent from Great
Britain. George Washington was the first president of U.S. and he served between 1789 and 1797.
(www.usa.gov, 2017)

U.S. involved in many wars including Vietnam War, Korean War, World War I, and World War
II. Moreover, Soviet Union and U.S. was on the same side during World War II. After World War
II, cold war between U.S. and Soviet Union began and lasted until 1991. (www.usa.gov, 2017)
During Cuban Missile Crisis, U.S. side was led by President of U.S. Government John Fitzgerald
Kennedy, commonly known as JFK.

He was born in United States in 1917, in Massachusetts. Afterwards, he went to Harvard

University and graduated in 1940. Soon after his graduation, he joined the navy, with his older
brother and assigned to a patrol torpedo boat at South Pacific as the Commander with Lieutenant
grade. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017)

During the World War II, his boat was destroyed but he managed to survive with most of his crew.
After he came back from his Navy assignment, he was awarded a medal by U.S. Army. But during
World War II, his older brother died in a mission when his plane blew up. (JFK Presidential
Library and Museum, 2017) His father was a diplomat and served as U.S. Ambassador to England.
His father’s job made him interested in politics. Moreover, because of the loss of his older brother
in war affected him to change his decisions about his future, and he decided to start a political
career. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017)

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He was elected to Congress in Massachusetts in 1946, and to U.S. Senate in 1952. In November
1960, as the candidate of Democratic Party, he won the elections and became the youngest
president of U.S. at the age of 43. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017)

JFK was the 35th President of United States, and served between 1961 and 1963, until he was
tragically assassinated in November 1963.

He was the president when the unsuccessful attempt to invade Cuba was undertaken in 1961, also
known as Bay of Pigs Invasion. Although this attempt was mostly planned by previous president
Eisenhower, this failure against Fidel Castro was perceived as lack of leadership ability of JFK
and inadequacy of his team. (History, 2017)

Another failure of him was in Vienna Summit, against President of Soviet Union, Nikita
Khrushchev, who is also the leader of Soviet Union side in Cuban Missile Crisis. In Vienna
Summit negotiations, JFK was bludgeoned by Khrushchev and afterwards Berlin Wall was
constructed. (Independent, 2011)

Therefore, Cuban Missile Crisis was considerably sensitive and crucial for him to prove his
leadership. His priority was to avoid nuclear war in Cuban Missile Crisis. Correspondingly, he
also resisted to use military attack option to remove missiles in Cuba and tried to implement
diplomatic ways instead. In later analysis about Cuban Missile Crisis, cautious attitude of JFK
was stated as the main reason that the world escaped nuclear war. (Roches, 2015)

3.3 Republic of Cuba

After the Cuban War of Independence from Spain ended in 1898, Cuba was ceded to the United
States. Although being independent, United States had the right to intervene to the Cuban internal
affairs due to the Platt Amendment. In 1906 United States occupied Cuba due to a rebellion act
and Jose Miguel Gomez became the president after the resignation of current president Tomas
Estrada Palma. During his regime, racism against Afro-Cubans raised and United States sent the
troops back in Cuba to bear against the conflicts. In 1925 Gerado Machado became president and
he developed the country in terms of mining industry, agriculture and public works. Later that
year first Socialist Party founded in Cuba. (BBC, 2015)

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Cuban economy was heavily dependent on sugar export. By 1928 sugar prices decreased and with
the additional effect of 1929 Wall Street stock market crisis, economy went down. This lead a
reaction from opposition that later turned into a civil war. In early 1933 Sumner Welles, the
ambassador of United States visited Cuba demanding the cancelled constitutional guaranties back
during Machado’s regime. After noncooperative position of Machado, Welles encouraged
disaffection among politicians and army officers and this led the end of Machado’s regime with
the coup, led by Sergeant Fulgencio Batista. (Dur P./Gilcrease C., 2002)

With the backing of Sumner Welles, Batista had a strong influence over numerous presidents until
1940. (Guzman T. A., 2015) In this period United States removed its rights to intervene in Cuba's
internal affairs. Additionally, increased the quotas to import Cuban sugar with the raise of prices
paid for sugar import in Cuban’s favor. Finally, Batista elected to the presidency for four years in
1940. During his presidency, he favored United States businesses and had the personal benefits.
After end of the presidential period in 1944 he lived in Florida United States during his retirement
with the 20 million dollars savings. During this term, he kept the influence on Cuban politics and
president. Finally returned to Cuba for an election in 1952. (Butts E./Schwartz J.R., 2005)

Batista’s position during the elections stayed behind the other candidates, this led the cancellation
of elections and a military coup planned by Batista to replace current president. Soon United States
recognized the new Cuban government. During his regime Batista restrained the Cuban’s civil
liberties and acted in favor of wealthy sugar plantations landowners. Although during 1950’s
Cuban economy was already in steady decline period; during Batista’s regime the gap between
rich and poor, corruption trends in government increased. The mafia from United States raised the
control over drugs, gambling and prostitution in the island and corporations based on United States
was favoring the government. (Guzman T. A., 2015)

Fidel Castro attempted an unsuccessful revolt against the Batista regime in 1953 and got arrested.
After his release through a political amnesty, in 1956 he waged a guerrilla war deployed in Sierra
Mountains with Ernesto Che Guevara. This spread across Cuba with the help of revolution
volunteers. In year 1958 United States withdrew the military support to regime and with a guerrilla
army of 9000 leaded by Castro, in 1959 Batista was overthrown with a civil rebellion turned into
Cuban Revolution. (BBC, 2015)

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Fidel Castro was born in 1926 as a child of a wealthy sugar plantation owner. At the age of 14
“My good friend Roosevelt…” Castro wrote to the Franklin Roosevelt in his letter. He
congratulated his presidency and demand a 10-dollar bill since he had never saw one. In postscript,
he also noted his offer to show the biggest Cuban iron mines for possible use in ship construction.
(Butts E./Schwartz J.R., 2005) In year 1945 he entered to the School of Law at the University of
Havana and had a political focus on anti-imperialism and socialism.

Although Castro was strongly linked to the communists of the Popular Socialist Party, Cuba’s first
provisional government was chosen from non-communists. Castro was a Marxist through
economic and social policies. He assigned the lands to peasants, opened thousands of schools,
provided free education and health care system. He also positioned a strict control on opposition
by media and forced exiles of opponents. (Burns et al., 2004) The properties on the island belong
to other nations namely Spain, France, United Kingdom, Switzerland and United States
expropriated subject to compensation for public good with an agrarian reform. All nations but
United States agreed on compensation. (Lamrani S., 2013) After this nationalization process the
relations with United States got worse and underpin a commercial embargo in 1961.

4. Background of Negotiations: Relations between parties

4.1 U.S. - Soviet Union Relations
Relations between Unites States and Soviet Union includes many conflicts, even though these two
sides were together during the World War II against Adolf Hitler. They cooperated to defeat
Hitler’s Army and to end the war. But after the end of World War II, relations had been strained
for a long time. From 1947, problematic affairs had retained until 1991, the time Soviet Union
collapsed. Because these sides were superpowers of the world for that period, this chaotic
atmosphere involved many other countries which were supported by either U.S. or Soviet Union.
Rivalry between communism and capitalism were mostly called ‘Cold War’. (Library of Congress,
2017)
Berlin Ultimatum
In 1958 Soviet Union Leader Khrushchev gave an ultimatum to US, Great Britain and France to
withdraw their military forces from Berlin. This ultimatum was rejected by NATO and
Khrushchev’s attempt was unsuccessful. (Office of the Historian - USA Department of State,
2017)

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Berlin Crisis
Many people from East Germany were crossing to West Germany by Berlin every day. These
immigrations accumulated very quickly and reached up to 20% of East German population.
Moreover, people who had immigrated were mostly educated and qualified. (Britannica, 2017)
Therefore, Soviet Union wanted to stop immigrations making East German people incapable of
crossing to the West Germany without permission. Khrushchev demanded an agreement, and it
was discussed in Vienna Summit but ended up without any agreement. Afterwards, in August
1961, Berlin Wall was built. (Britannica, 2017)

Tank Stand-off in Berlin

In October 1961, a U.S. diplomat went to East Berlin. He was stopped by East German border
guards and asked to show his passport, and after he denied it saying that only Soviet officials could
ask, he was sent back by border guards. (The Guardian, 2011)
A U.S. Commander ordered military forces to escort the next time a U.S. diplomat visit East
Berlin. But East Germany border guards kept asking for passport check. Correspondingly, U.S.
tanks were sent to East Berlin border and stood 75 meters away as a threat. Soviet tanks were
immediately sent to same location as well, and tanks stood facing each other for 16 hours. After
communication between Kremlin and Washington, they agreed that there is no point to risk a
conflict and tanks were pulled back one by one. (The Guardian, 2011)

4.2 U.S. - Cuba Relations

By the year 1959 oil production, communication, mining and energy sectors were dominated,
trade was relied upon United States as 65% of its imports and 74% of its exports. (Paterson T.G.,
1989) United States owned investments did not have significant contributions to country itself
since they were often derated on taxes and freed to repatriate their profits. (Lamrani S., 2013)

During anti Batista movement, United States supported Batista in military missions by providing
armaments, infiltrating supportive political groups and organizing an anticommunist police unit.
(Paterson T.G., 1989) After Batista’s overthrown in 1958, he left the country with 424 million
dollars bankruptcy. Cuba asked for a loan from United States to stabilize its currency. However,
this request had been rejected. (Lamrani S., 2013) Despite the progress on housing, education,
health care systems and decreased corruption, his revolution was disparaged and named as
"betrayed revolution” by United States. (Paterson T.G., 1989) On August 1959 United States
based electricity company cancelled its 15 million dollars worth investment on Cuba which was

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planned to upgrade Cuban electrical grid. This was right after Cuba’s new government reduced
the electricity price by thirty percent. Through the expropriation of the foreign assets in Cuba,
compensations provided to the owners. Only United States rejected the compensation process.
Thus in 1960 Cuban sugar quota has been cancelled and energy source delivery has been stopped.
One year later in 1961 travel ban was imposed. This embargo later turned in to a total embargo
including banning the drugs and food supplies. (Lamrani S., 2013)

Castro was planned to be murdered by several attempts-by United States but never succeed. In
1961 with the military support of United States, Cuban exiles attempt an invasion at the Bay of
Pigs. However, this attempt has been failed. Within this year Castro declared Cuba as a communist
state and built strong the relations with the Soviet Union both politically and economically.
Following that United States suspended Cuba from Organization of American States established
for regional solidarity and cooperation among its member states, due to it’s adherence to Marxism-
Leninism. (BBC, 2015)

On October 14, 1962 an U-2 reconnaissance plane photographed the construction of missile sites
in Cuba to place Soviet nuclear missiles. Kennedy was frustrated after this evidence snapping "He
can't do that to me!…”. United States declared the missiles as offensive weapons, a great nuclear
threat on its territories. (Paterson T.G., 1989)

4.3 Soviet Union - Cuba Relations

Besides interactions during World War II, Soviet Union and Cuba did not have a significant
diplomatic relation until Cuban Revolution. (Fagen, 1978)

Batista’s Government was defeated by revolutionist rebels who are under the command of Fidel
Castro and Che Guevara in 1959. This defeat led to Cuban Revolution and Fidel Castro’s became
the President transforming the regime into communism. Afterwards, U.S. broke off diplomatic
relations with Cuba when all U.S. businesses in Cuba was nationalized. (Fagen, 1978)

After the revolution, Soviet Union did not know about Fidel Castro. But by the time U.S. started
an embargo on Cuba, government had to search for new markets to sustain the economy of the
country. (Peterson, 1994)

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New market search of Cuba let a trade start between two sides, and this help Cuba avoid economic
crisis for many years.

When an official announcement by Fidel Castro stated that Cuba is a socialist republic, as the
socialist superpower of the world, Soviet Union congratulated Cuba and diplomatic relations
became closer. The U.S. threat on Cuba was obvious. To that end, defense of Cuba was interpreted
as prestige matter for Soviet Union. (Richard E. Welch, 1985)

Fidel Castro let Soviet Union to install nuclear missiles in Cuba, and after spy aircrafts of U.S.
realized the missile sites, the Cuban Missile Crisis was triggered. As the result of negotiation,
defense of Cuba against U.S. was guaranteed. (Gonzalez, 2002)

After Cuban Missile Crisis, relations between Soviet Union and Cuba became even better. In 1963,
Fidel Castro made a trip to Soviet Union to talk about construction projects in Cuba. In 1968, he
politically supported the invasion of Czechoslovakia. And relations retained until the dissolution
of Soviet Union in 1991. (Roeschley, 2011)

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5. Evaluation (Pay-off) Matrix
Evaluation matrix is being used to demonstrate the issues, options and parties comparative
positions during the negotiation. It contains each parties name in the head of the columns, options
headed by issues on the left column and numerical evaluation of each option by each party on the
body of the table. In following table marked options are determined to calculate BATNA of each
party.

Republic of
USA USSR Cuba
1 USSR Missiles in Cuba 55 20 20
a Removal by USSR 55 10 0
b Removal by Cuba Government 40 0 5
c Removed after somewhile 22 15 15
d Retained permenantly 0 20 20
2 USA Missiles in Turkey 15 15 0
a Removed 0 15 0
b Removed after 6 months 5 10 0
c Retained permenantly 15 0 0

3 Quarantine And Embargo on Cuba 10 20 30

a No Embargo or Defensive Blockade 0 20 30
b Only Defensive Blockade 4 5 10
c Only Embargo 7 10 20
d Both Embargo and Defensive Blockade 10 0 0
4 US Military Attack to Cuba 10 40 50
a Never 0 40 50
b No promise 10 20 30
c Only for missile setups 5 10 10
d Attack for missile setups and invasion 7 0 0
5 Public Announcement 10 5 0
a USSR Missiles and Peace in Cuba 10 3 0
b USSR Missiles and USA Missile 5 0 0
c USSR Missiles, USA Missiles, and Peace in Cuba 0 5 0
d USA Missiles and Peace in Cuba 0 0 0
e USA Missiles Removal 0 0 0
f USSR Missiles Removal 0 0 0
g Peace in Cuba 0 0 0

Table I- Evaluation Matrix

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6. Issue Evaluations of Parties
In this section, issues and each parties’ interests will be discussed in detail.

6.1. Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

6.1.1 Missiles in Cuba
As being the only communist state in the western hemisphere and as past experiences reveal, an
invasion threat against the Cuba by United States was undeniable. This would also lead a threat
of war against Soviet Union and any of the Soviet Republics as stated by Khrushchev. Beyond
being just a strong war power, nuclear missiles are also giving a crucial power both to Soviet and
Cuban governments during further negotiations and trades with United States which eventually
had been used for quid pro quo removal of missiles in Turkey.

During the crisis resolution meetings Kennedy’s advisers came up with few explanations of Soviet
placement of nuclear missiles. According to George Ball, Khrushchev wanted to trade the Cuban
disarm in return of United States abandon its interest in Berlin, surrounded by communist East
Germany. Another explanation is that the Soviet Union was behind the United States in
development of nuclear missiles and wanted to close the gap. This is as well the dominant view in
scholarly literature is the nuclear missiles had a mission to strengthen Soviet’s position in the
nuclear arms race with United States. (Paterson T.G., 1989)

During the crisis, Khrushchev wrote in his letter to Kennedy “We affirm that the armaments which
are in Cuba, regardless of the classification to which they may belong, are intended solely for
defensive purposes, in order to secure the Republic of Cuba against the attack of an aggressor.”

6.1.2 Missiles in Turkey

In year 1961 United States installed fifteen nuclear tipped missiles in right beside the Soviet Union
borders, in Turkey, as a member county of NATO. Those missiles gave a strong war-power to
United States to use in further direct attacks or to threaten Soviets to refrain spreading
communism. Although its being known that United States has more missiles across the Europe, in
last minute Khrushchev pointed out the missiles in Turkey and demanded the removal of missiles
from Turkey. Later confirmed by his son Sergei Khrushchev this issue was not crucial for Soviet
Union at all. This request can be interpreted as using as a quid pro quo and not to lose face in the
deal and decreasing the possible threat of attack even it is an underachiever.

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6.1.3 Quarantine on Cuba
Khrushchev stated that the relation between two country related goods and products is only
concern these two countries and no third party should be involved. The quarantine represents an
ultimatum and clear threat that if the demands of United States unfilled, oppress is inevitable. He
claimed United States is violating the international law with the quarantine as a piracy and doing
this with the hatred of Cuban people and government.

“What morality, what law can justify such an approach by the American Government to
international affairs? No such morality or law can be found, because the actions of the United
States with regard to Cuba constitute outright banditry or, if you like, the folly of degenerate
imperialism.” Khrushchev wrote in his letter to Kennedy dated 26th of October,1962 “…Naturally
we will not simply be bystanders with regard to piratical acts by American ships on the high seas.
We will then be forced on our part to take the measures we consider necessary and adequate in
order to protect our rights. We have everything necessary to do so.” he continued. (JFK
Presidential Library and Museum, 2017)

6.1.4 U.S. Military attack to Cuba

Khrushchev was decisive to prevent its ally Cuba from a possible attack by United States at all
cost. In his letter to Kennedy he reminded the failed invasion of Bay of Pigs and yet destructive
results on Cubans. Despite stating the terrifying results of possible disagreement, he clearly
threatened back to attack in case of possible military attack against Cuba. This was the most
important issue for the Soviet Union as they committed to the defense of Cuba while agreeing on
the missile placement, additionally Cuba was a strong ally and the only communist state in western
hemisphere.

Later in this letter he stated if United States stops the threat of any attack or invasion, Cuban
government evidently would declare demobilization of the armaments. This statement later leaded
a guarantee given by U.S. for Cuba’s peace.

6.1.5 Public Announcement

During the unofficial meeting held on 27th October, 1962 between Robert Kennedy and Soviet
ambassador Dobrynin, United States demanded the missiles in Turkey will be displaced if only
this will not publicly announced due to reason such deployment decision by United States would
damage the structure of NATO - since deployment was the decision of the NATO Council- United

14
States claimed that the withdrawal of missiles from Turkey will require few months, taking into
account the procedures within the NATO framework. This was reasonable enough and not so
important for Khrushchev as he publicly announced the next day not a word about the missiles in
Turkey, the missiles will be removed from Cuba, in return the quarantine will be ended and a
guarantee has been given that Cuba will not be invaded. (National Security Archive, 1995)

6.2. United States of America

After U.S. Government realized Soviet missile installation in Cuba, they decided to keep the
situation quiet and established a committee with members from different governmental
organizations including U.S. Army to evaluate the situation. They called it ExComm which stands
for Executive Committee of the National Security Council. (Coleman, 2017)

The most important priority for U.S. was of course to avoid nuclear war, since the missile
installation created very sensitive circumstance which could easily end as Nuclear War. But this
was not a negotiation issue for any sides, because it would have been the result in case there was
no agreement. Therefore, evaluation of them depended on the issues covered by negotiation:
Soviet Missiles in Cuba, U.S. Missiles in Turkey, Quarantine on Cuba, U.S. Military Attack to
Cuba and Public Announcement.

6.2.1. Missiles in Cuba

As the incident that creates crisis, the most important issue for U.S. was Soviet missiles in Cuba.
Since it was an obvious threat for the country, U.S. wanted those missiles to be removed
immediately. They were not willing to accept any result of negotiation which did not include
removal of those missiles. Although it would provide much lower satisfaction, they were also
willing to accept the removal of Soviet Missiles after some time, such as 6 months later.
Furthermore, to compensate this removal, U.S. government brought another issue to the table:
U.S. Missiles in Turkey. (Coleman, 2017)

6.2.2. Missiles in Turkey

U.S. missiles in Turkey were already installed before Cuban Missile Crisis. By the time U.S.
realized the missile installation in Cuba, their missiles in Turkey were already there. Not making
any progress about the removal of Soviet Missiles in Cuba, U.S. government created a new issue
for negotiation by proposing that they could remove missiles in Turkey. Thus, retaining these
missiles were the best option for U.S., but they were also willing remove them. But the important

15
point was that U.S. Government didn’t want to do it at the same time with removal of Soviet
Missiles. Because they were considered to be overwhelmed by Soviet Union and Cuba in prior
crisis. So, to preserve their political reputation, U.S. proposed to remove the missiles in Turkey
after six months, and this was an acceptable option for U.S.. (Allison, 2012)

6.2.3. Quarantine on Cuba

U.S. applied an embargo on Cuba before Missile Crisis start. After ExComm decision, they also
started to place defensive blockade to prevent anymore military was shipped to Cuba by Soviet
Union. Therefore, both embargo and defensive blockade, so-called quarantine, were issues in
Cuban Missile Crisis negotiation. Best option for U.S. was retaining both embargo and defensive
quarantine. But they were willing to accept to withdraw defensive blockade in case Soviet missiles
were removed. This means to keep the situation as it was before Missile Crisis, only with embargo.
Furthermore, U.S. preferred keeping only embargo than keeping only defensive blockade, because
defensive blockades carried more risk, cost and effort for them. And finally, withdrawing both
embargo and defensive blockade was the least satisfying option.

6.2.4. U.S. Military Attack to Cuba

The main objective of U.S. when considering the military attack was to defuse Soviet Missiles in
Cuba. But this move was likely to bring an inevitable need to invade Cuba afterwards, because
keeping everything under control might have been too difficult without invasion. So, military
attack and invasion afterwards was a relatively good option for U.S. But Soviet Union created
another option and wanted to include the guarantee that US will never make a military attack to
Cuba, which became the worst option for U.S. since it would also be valid for any future crisis.
Correspondingly, not attacking to Cuba immediately, but providing no guarantee about military
attack either was the best option for U.S. in this issue.

6.2.5. Public Announcement

U.S. already had defeats in prior crisis with Soviet Union and Cuba such as Berlin Crisis which
ended up in Berlin Wall construction and Bay of Pigs Invasion attempt which ended up that Cuba
took U.S.-backed exiles and U.S. Soldiers. As a result, U.S. Government had to make this
agreement look like a diplomatic victory. To do so, they wanted to exclude removal of U.S.
missiles in Turkey and making another agreement for it which was kept as a secret for 25 years.
(John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Musem, 2017) But the agreement also had to cover a
mutual trade to be reasonable for all sides. A public announcement only covers sacrifices of one

16
side would not be possible. US was willing to make ‘Never Attack to Cuba Guarantee’ public in
the same agreement and this was the best option for them. Including both no attack guarantee and
removal of US Missiles in Turkey was obviously the worst option.

6.3. Republic of Cuba

Cuba was relatively inactive in Missile Crisis. Although the missiles were settled in Cuba,
negotiation was mostly between U.S. and Soviet Union. Moreover, some issues in the negotiation
were completely unimportant for Cuba.
Military attack was obviously the most important issue for Fidel Castro and his government. The
second important issue was Quarantine and embargo, and the Missiles in Cuba was the third
important issue. Public Announcement and U.S. Missiles in Cuba had no importance for Cuba.

6.3.1 US Military Attack to Cuba

U.S.-backed exiles tried to invade Cuba, just a year before Missile Crisis. And it was known that
U.S. didn’t want to let Fidel Castro govern Cuba. Therefore, a military attack by U.S. to Cuba
seemed very likely. This was also the reason that Castro created better relations with Soviet Union
and let them place missiles in Cuba.

Taking a guarantee that U.S. would never attack to Cuba was the best option for Cuba
Government. The worst option clearly was that US would attack Missile setups immediately and
invade Cuba. Even though it is not preferred, a military attack by US that only aims Soviet Missiles
was slightly better for Cuba. Finally, the option that US gives no guarantee was better than any
military attack.

6.3.2 Quarantine and Embargo

Besides ongoing embargo, Cuba faced the physical defensive blockade by U.S., and it would
create terrible consequences for Cuba in long term.

The best option for Cuba was to deal with no blockade or embargo. Additionally, dealing only
with embargo was still better than quarantine. And keeping both embargo and quarantine was the
worst option.

17
6.3.3 Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba
Soviet missile setups in Cuba was both a risk and an opportunity for government. Since they gave
a power to Cuba against U.S. by creating a threat; but at the same time, a considerable risk of a
military attack, and even an invasion, by U.S. arose.

Despite the risk it created, keeping missile setups was the best option for Cuba. Removal by Soviet
Union decision, was the worst option because it gave no authority to Cuba government in the
negotiation. Removal by Cuba government was slightly better, since although it would present a
powerful perception for Cuba, Soviet Union would not be satisfied in this case and relations
between Soviet Union and Cuba would go breakdown. Removal after some time was the better
option in removal cases.

7. Negotiation Analysis with BATNA Method

7.1 BATNA of United States
The priority of U.S. was avoiding a possible nuclear war. But in negotiation scope, almost all
agreements would be better than nuclear war. Moreover, nuclear war was not a direct negotiation
issue, it could be a possible result. Therefore, nuclear war could not be BATNA for U.S.

The clearest thing for U.S. was that they were not willing to accept any agreement without removal
of the missiles in Cuba. This was the most important issue for the security and the most important
safety measure that U.S. had to implement immediately.

As a result, Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba can be set as the BATNA of U.S. To determine the
BATNA on the point scale, weight of ‘Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba’ issue is used. Consequently,
the BATNA of U.S. is set as 55 points.

7.2. BATNA of Soviet Union

Soviet Union was the side that started crisis by placing nuclear missiles in Cuba. Unlike the U.S.
government, Soviet Union government didn’t focus on a single point, they were expecting to get
an agreement that covers different issues. Thus, instead of setting one certain issue as the BATNA,
considering issues that Soviet Union government perceived more important would be a better
approach.

18
Even though Soviet Union placed the missiles in the first place, they were still willing to accept
to remove missiles in Cuba. An important condition on removal was that Soviet Union wanted to
do it on their own, instead of Cuba. U.S. missiles in Turkey, was the issue that U.S. government
brought to the table. But it was not a priority for determining BATNA of Soviet Union.

Soviet Union wanted U.S. to withdraw the quarantine on Cuba immediately, but embargo was not
urgent issue that can affect the disagreement point. As the most important issue for Soviet Union,
guarantee that U.S. will never attack to Cuba was the most important option that affects the
BATNA directly. Finally, public announcement was considered as an unimportant issue by Soviet
Union and it didn’t have any effect on BATNA.

As the result, BATNA of Soviet Union was built considering the least options that Soviet Union
government was willing to accept. These options were ‘Removal by Soviet Union’ in the issue of
‘Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba’, ‘Only Embargo’ in the issue of ‘Quarantine and Embargo on
Cuba’, and ‘Never Military Attack’ in the issue of ‘US Military Attack to Cuba’. ‘U.S. Missiles
in Turkey’ and ‘Public Announcement’ issues were not considered while determining the
BATNA, because they were not important enough to affect BATNA. Determination of BATNA
of Soviet Union corresponds to 60 points.

7.3. BATNA of Cuba

Cuba was the relatively inactive negotiation party and had very similar evaluations with Soviet
Union. Even though missiles were set up on Cuban land, Cuba government did not install them
itself. Therefore, whether missiles would be removed or not was not an issue that affects the
BATNA directly. Similarly, U.S. Missiles in Turkey issue was not important for Cuba for both
geographical and political reasons; not affecting the BATNA as well.

Quarantine and Embargo on Cuba was an important part of BATNA evaluation for Cuba
Government. The option that could be acceptable for Cuba in this issue was dealing only with the
embargo.

As the most important part of BATNA evaluation, Cuba government wanted to have the guarantee
that U.S. will never attack to Cuba option in ‘US Military Attack to Cuba’ issue, but the least
acceptable option was that U.S. would give no guarantee about military attack. Finally, ‘Public
Announcement’ issue had no affect or importance on BATNA evaluation of Cuba.
Considering the least acceptable options for Cuba, BATNA of Cuba corresponds to 50 points.
19
8. Discussion and Conclusion
The DANSS software is a tool to present negotiations in a structured manner to analyze the
efficiency in negotiation processes. (DANSS, 2017) Issues, options and parties’ priorities has been
entered to software a graphical and tabular evaluation of the negotiation has been generated.

8.1. DANSS Results

Cuban Missile Crisis is a 3-sided negotiation, even though Cuba was inactive. On the other hand,
Cuba and Soviet Union was on together against U.S.. Therefore, the results must be interpreted
for two cases: U.S.-Soviet Union and U.S.-Cuba.
The actual agreement consists of following options for the issues, and the corresponding points
for the negotiation parties.

U.S. Soviet Union Cuba

1 Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba 55 20 20

a Removal by Soviet Union 55 10 0

2 U.S. Missiles in Turkey 15 15 0

b Removed after 6 months 5 10 0

3 Quarantine And Embargo on Cuba 10 20 30

c Only Embargo 7 10 20

4 US Military Attack to Cuba 10 40 50

a Never 0 40 50

5 Public Announcement 10 5 0

Soviet Union Missiles and Peace in

a Cuba 10 3 0

77 73 70

BATNA 55 60 50

Table II- Evaluation matrix including results and BATNA’s

20
8.1.1. U.S.-Soviet Union

Figure I: DANSS Software Results for U.S.- Soviet Union

The actual agreement is not on the efficient frontier, although it is very close to it. Looking through
the way to achieve the closest point on the efficient frontier, it is seen that only one tradeoff
between two sides which covers two issues could have been enough.

If negotiation parties had agreed on keeping U.S. Missiles in Turkey, instead of removing them in
6 months, (2. issue; option ‘c’ instead of option ‘b’) and withdrawing both embargo and quarantine
on Cuba, instead of keeping embargo (3. issue; option ‘a’ instead of option ‘c’) the actual result
would be on the efficient frontier. Because U.S. brought the issue of U.S. Missiles in Turkey,
Kennedy and his team should have suggested this tradeoff.

21
8.1.2. U.S.-Cuba

Figure II: DANSS Software Results for U.S.- Cuba

The actual agreement is not on the efficient frontier in U.S.-Cuba case as well. But in this case,
there are two possible agreements that includes at least as many points as the actual agreement for
both sides. The efficient point that is marked with blue is the same efficient agreement which is
concluded on U.S.-Soviet Union graph. Additionally, the other efficient point that is marked with
grey is only capable of increasing the point of U.S.. Thus, the efficient point that is marked with
blue could have been better for both sides.

To achieve blue efficient point, the same tradeoff which is explained U.S.-Soviet Union results is
required. If negotiation parties had agreed on keeping U.S. Missiles in Turkey, instead of removing
them in 6 months, (2. issue; option ‘c’ instead of option ‘b’) and withdrawing both embargo and
quarantine on Cuba, instead of keeping embargo (3. issue; option ‘a’ instead of option ‘c’) the
actual result would be on the efficient frontier.

As the result, the following agreement is likely to provide better results for all negotiation parties,
increasing payoffs of U.S. and Cuba, and keeping payoff of Soviet Union as it was.

22
 U.S. Soviet Union Cuba

1 Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba 55 20 20

a Removal by Soviet Union 55 10 0

2 U.S. Missiles in Turkey 15 15 0

b Retained permanently 15 0 0

3 Quarantine And Embargo on Cuba 10 20 30

c No Embargo or Defensive Blockade 0 20 30

4 U.S. Military Attack to Cuba 10 40 50

a Never 0 40 50

5 Public Announcement 10 5 0

Soviet Union Missiles and Peace in

a Cuba 10 3 0

80 73 80

BATNA 55 60 50

Table III- Evaluation matrix including results and BATNA’s

8.3. Reasons for Inefficient Results

The representatives of each party carried a major responsibility as the matter of the lives of
millions living in both continents. There were some odds that hinder the achievement of the
optimal result. First of all, there was an incredible time pressure. Because U.S. wanted to close the
deal before installation of missile setups was completed, and the installation process was estimated
to take 13 days. Therefore, time pressure can be a reason that causes inaccurate evaluations of
options for negotiation parties

Second, for U.S. side, there was an obvious conflict inside which is between army and President
Kennedy about the military attack to Cuba. While army representatives support that military attack
was the best option, President Kennedy didn’t want to approve it.

23
Third, characteristics of leaders affected the results. Especially, Khrushchev was known as a
person who loses his temper. This might cause Soviet Union to make sudden and wrong choices
during negotiation. In addition, Kennedy and Khrushchev are completely different characters and
this makes the communication and agreement hard to achieve.

The final and probably the most important reason was communication. The main communication
ways were letters and unofficial representatives of negotiation parties. Thus, negotiation process
neither fast nor clear for all sides. As the result, lack and inefficiency of communication triggered
inefficient agreement.

Despite all the odds, the crisis lasted in thirteen days from the beginning. Through the negotiations,
win-win settlement has been achieved and the world peace has been preserved.

24
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