OTC 10945

Reliability analysis of permanent downhole monitoring systems

S.J.C.H.M. van Gisbergen, Shell International Deepwater Services B.V., A.A.H. Vandeweijer, Shell International
Exploration and Production B.V.

Copyright 1999, Offshore Technology Conference

(i) Permanent downhole flowmeters for liquid-only
This paper was prepared for presentation at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference held in mixtures,
Houston, Texas, 3–6 May 1999.
(ii) PDG systems in ESP-lifted wells that use the ESP
This paper was selected for presentation by the OTC Program Committee following review of power cable for data transmission,
information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper, as
presented, have not been reviewed by the Offshore Technology Conference and are subject to (iii) The Fibre Optic Well Monitoring (FOWM) system for
correction by the author(s). The material, as presented, does not necessarily reflect any
position of the Offshore Technology Conference or its officers. Electronic reproduction, measuring pressure and temperature.
distribution, or storage of any part of this paper for commercial purposes without the written
consent of the Offshore Technology Conference is prohibited. Permission to reproduce in print
(iv) The Tucatran system for cableless communication.
is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words; illustrations may not be copied. The (v) The SCRAMS system.
abstract must contain conspicuous acknowledgment of where and by whom the paper was
presented. The installation of electric gaslift valves, all electric inflow
control devices and reservoir monitoring systems are planned
in the near future. Once all these systems are available, the so-
Abstract
called ‘Intelligent Well’ concept, which can be defined as a
Permanent downhole gauge (PDG) systems have been
modular combination of downhole monitoring and control
installed in many oil and gas wells to date. These systems
systems will become reality.
enable improved reservoir management and production
For all these systems reliability is key: Shell’s targets are a
optimisation. Currently, more complex downhole monitoring
90% probability to survive 5 years for monitoring systems and
and control systems are being installed, in what is often called
a 90% probability to survive 10 years for actuators. In this
‘Intelligent Wells’. For all these systems reliability is a critical
study, we have performed an evaluation of the reliability of
aspect.
installed systems, where we have focused on electric pressure
We have evaluated the performance of 952 pressure and
and temperature measurement systems, since sufficient have
temperature monitoring systems installed since 1987. It was
been installed to allow a statistical evaluation.
found that the 5-year survival probability of these systems
The paper contains a description of a PDG system and its
improved from 40% for systems installed in the period 87/88
components, the method of obtaining field data, the statistical
to 75% for the period 91/92. As from 1992 no further
analysis and the final results. Conclusions are then drawn from
improvements have been observed resulting in a 5-year
the results.
survival probability of 69% for the period 1993-1998.
Failure modes have been evaluated and could mostly be
System description
attributed to the downhole gauge and to the cable. Based upon
A schematic of an electrical PDG system for pressure and
these findings, recommendations have been made to achieve
temperature measurement is depicted in Fig. 1.
reliability improvements.
The sensing element is an electronic gauge that measures
the pressure and temperature in the tubing. The gauge is
Introduction
mounted in a mandrel, which forms part of the tubing string.
Permanent downhole gauge (PDG) systems have been
The topside of the gauge is formed by the cablehead. Here,
installed in several hundreds of oil and gas wells so far. These
the gauge is connected to the electrical metal-sheathed cable
systems form an alternative to wireline-conveyed downhole
that runs along the tubing to the hanger.
surveys. In comparison, PDG systems avoid hazardous
The cable is coaxial and consists of an insulated
operations and offer continuous measurements, which enable
monoconductor that is encapsulated in a metal sheath. This
better reservoir management and production optimisation. An
metal sheath forms the return wire and protects the cable from
increasing number are being installed, mainly in wells where
the medium in the annulus. The sheath is in most cases
wireline surveys are expensive (subsea, offshore, remote) or
encapsulated in a thermoplastic to prevent it from damage
where they result in high deferred production (e.g. horizontal
during the installation.
wells). Electric pressure and temperature (p,T) monitoring
Splices in downhole cables are used in case of insufficient
systems are most common. Other systems that have been
cable length or if the cable breaks during installation. It has
installed are:
2 S.J.C.H.M. VAN GISBERGEN, A.A.H. VANDEWEIJER
always been considered as a weak element, and therefore the
average number of splices in an installation has been reduced
significantly over the last years. Continuous cable-lengths of
10,000 m can now be made and more care is given to the
installation.
The cable is supported by protectors at every tubing joint.
These hold the cable in place and protect it across the
couplings, where the cable is most vulnerable to crushing.
The wellhead outlet differs for a platform/land and a
subsea installation. In case of a land or platform system, the
cable is normally fed through the tubing hanger with
compression fittings at the top and bottom. The cable can be
fed out of the tree through a downhole safety-valve line port or
a flanged outlet. In order to provide a pressure barrier inside
the tree, a bulkhead splice is often made immediately outside
the tree, which terminates in a connector. An instrument cable
is used to couple this connector to the surface acquisition unit.
In case of a subsea installation, a wet-connector is used
between the hanger and the tree (see figure 1). The male part
of the connector is fitted into the hanger on the rig floor. The
female part is fitted into the tree. It is connected to the
wellhead outlet via a metal sheathed cable. The wellhead
outlet is usually a flanged wet connector, which is coupled to
the control pod, to a control line in the umbilical or to an
acoustic telemetry system via a diver mateable connector.
The data from the PDG is usually fed into an IBM-
compatible PC via an interface unit. Such a system can handle
a multiple of gauges. It can transmit the data to any location
via any chosen communication system, ranging from satellite
link to transporting floppy disks.
Field data
The data set of the track record was obtained from the four
major suppliers of these systems. Their data were cross-
checked with other sources of information, such as articles in
literature1 and information from Operators. In this manner
field data of 952 p,T measurement systems installed from
1987 till August 1998 were obtained. The reports of all failed
systems have also been collected in order to determine the
failing element.
Method of analysis
The systems under study differ by their inherent properties or
by the external conditions (pressure, temperature, etc.) under
which they are operating. Also other factors, like the oil
company, the field, the well type, the contractor and the
installation date may have influence on the failure behaviour
of the system. A physical model, explaining the influence of
these variables on the reliability, is not available. Hence a non-
parametric method (as described in 2) has been used to analyse
the reliability. The results obtained with this method are only
based on the observed track records of the installed systems,
without the inclusion of any physical model and without
making any assumption about the failure behaviour, as is done
by parametric models, e.g. a Poisson (constant failure-rate) or
Weibul life time distribution.
OTC 10945
Results
This section contains the results of the reliability analysis.
First the number of installations is discussed. Subsequently the
reliability of the total data set is discussed, and the change in
reliability over time is analysed. Finally the failures are
analysed, subdivided into the failure element.
Number of installations
We have obtained data from a total of 952 p,T
measurement systems that were installed in the period January
1987 until August 1998. In Fig. 2, the number of installations
is shown for each year, divided into subsea, platform and land
installations. This figure shows a sharp increase in the number
of installations up to 1996 with step increases in 1993 and
1996. Before 1993, typically 30 systems were installed yearly,
whereas from 1993 till 1995 about 100 installations per year
were done reaching a peak of 192 systems in 1996. After 1996
the number of installations shows a decrease. For 1998 this is
partly due to the fact that only installations up to August have
been taken into account.
Figure 2 also shows that the division into platform, land
and subsea installations on average remains fairly constant
over the years; 39% of all the installations are subsea
installations, approximately 61% are platform installations
whereas only few land installations have been done.
Reliability
Over the years, substantial developments of PDG systems
have taken place. This has resulted in a situation that
effectively every 2-4 years a new generation of systems have
come on the market. As PDG systems go through the learning
curve, one would expect to see a change in reliability over
time. To study this, the survival probability has been
calculated as a function of operational time for 6 different
periods of installation: 1987/88, 1989/90, 1991/92, 1993/94,
1995/96 and 1997/98. The results are shown in Figure 3. In
this figure also 90% confidence intervals are displayed that
give a 90% probability that the real value of the reliability is
within these intervals. The curves for the period 1995/96 and
1997/98 are terminated after 4 and 2 years, respectively, since
that is the longest time systems from these periods have been
installed.
These curves show that between 1987 and 1992,
substantial progress has been made in the reliability of PDG
systems: the 5-year survival probability has improved from
40% for systems installed in 1987/88 to 75% for the
installation period 1991/92. However, since 1992 no further
improvements have been observed. This has resulted in a 5-
year survival probability of 69% for the period 1993-1998. If
we compare this to the target 5-year reliability of 90%, it can
be concluded that the failure rate is still a factor 3 too high.
Failing elements for different generations
We have divided the failures of PDG systems into their
failing elements as follows: failure of (1) the downhole cable,
(2) fixed connections, such as splices and the gauge-cable
connection, (3) mateable connectors, (4) the downhole sensor
and (5) other failures. We have studied the change in
reliability for each element over time, which is shown in Fig.
OTC 10945 RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF PERMANENT DOWNHOLE MONITORING SYSTEMS
4. This figure depicts the position 1 year after installation and
shows the percentage of installations still operating and the
percentage that have failed split by failing element for 6
different periods of installation. It shows that the failures due
to fixed and mateable connections have dropped over the
years: in 1987/88 59% of all system failures after 1 year were
due to these 2 elements, whereas in 1995/96 and in 1997/98
this has reduced to less than 7%. Therefore, it can be
concluded that significant improvements have been made in
the reliability of fixed and mateable connections. Also the
reliability of the cable has shown an improving trend
throughout the years. The gauges however still cause a large
number of failures. Throughout the years the failure rate of
this element has shown an increasing trend.
Current generation
In the remainder of this paper, we will focus on the failures
that are encountered in the current generation of PDG systems
to arrive at recommendations to prevent them. We have
somewhat arbitrarily defined the current generation as those
installed in the last 4 years, i.e. in 1995-1998. In this period in
total 557 systems for measuring pressure and temperature have
been installed.
Fig. 5 shows the split-up of failures of the 557 p,T PDG
systems installed since 1995. The total number of failures of
these systems was 96. This split-up shows that the dominant
failing element is the gauge (40%) followed by the cable
(17%).
Failure of the gauge
The largest cause of failures is the gauge: 40%. Failures have
typically been attributed to the gauge, based on evaluation of
the electrical behaviour of the downhole system.
Originally the gauges of PDG systems were identical to the
memory gauges used in well-tests. Some service companies
used identical electronic equipment, assembling methods
and/or testing methods. However, the lifetime requirement for
well-test gauges (maximum several months) is relaxed
compared to that for PDG systems (5-10 years). Therefore in
order to improve the gauge reliability it is recommended to use
(i) dedicated electronic circuits with proper QA/QC in place,
instead of those used for memory gauges, and (ii) improved
burn-in procedures and vibration testing. Further also
destructive sample testing to verify performance is
recommended. This should be done at actual conditions, e.g.
in the closed housing, rather than electronic boards tested in
open furnaces.
It should be noted that the failure rate of electronic
circuitry is temperature dependent. Most of the PDG systems
are operating at 100°C or below as can be seen in figure 6
where the number of installations is listed as a function of
bottomhole temperature. This figure shows that the
distribution is almost gausian. The maximum temperature at
which electronic gauges are operating is currently 150°C. The
useful temperature range for electronic gauges is extending
due to the use of dedicated electronics and efforts are ongoing
to extend this further to 200°C.
3
A decrease in reliability with temperature is expected,
mainly because of the expected higher failure rate of
electronics at higher temperatures: as a rule of thumb, the
failure rate of electronic circuitry doubles for each 8°C
temperature increase. Also other elements show a decrease of
reliability with increasing temperature.
The influence of bottomhole temperature on reliability is
shown in Fig. 7. This figure indeed shows that there is a
decreasing trend of the 1-year survival probability of systems
installed in the period 1995 till 1998 as a function of
bottomhole temperature.
Failure of the cable
The downhole cable has traditionally been a weak element of
PDG systems. Until 1990, all cables contained splices, which
were a major source of failures, however, splice-free cables in
lengths of over 10,000 m are now available. Furthermore,
currently cables with an Incoloy 825 sheath are used instead of
an AISI 316L sheath. This has contributed to improvements in
reliability.
Most cable related failures have occurred during or shortly
after the installation. Some of these cable failures occurred
when the cable was crushed by the tubing hanger while
landing the tree. These failures can be prevented by using a
protective cap/centraliser for the cable in the tubing section
immediately below the tubing hanger. It should be noted that
most identified cable failures have occurred in platform
installations, but crushing of the cable below the tubing hanger
has in some cases also occurred in subsea wells, only there the
tubing has been pulled and the cable was repaired. This is not
listed as a failure but results in lost rig-time, which could have
been saved by using a protective cap.
Another cause of cable failures is when tubing loads crush
the cable, especially in an area with severe doglegs. To
prevent these failures it is recommended to use cables with
bumper bars where it is expected that the load on the cable can
exceed the crush resistance of the cable. Alternatively, one
could consider to use mid joint protectors, although these have
a tendency to shift along the tubing string.
Finally cable failures also occur when the cable has to be
guided across large components in the completion string.
During some installations the cable was cut at these
components as it provided too little space for the cable to pass
along. To solve this problem it is recommended to use special
protectors that better guide the cable along these components.
Another option is to provide a recess in the component for the
cable to pass along.
Failure of fixed connections
Fixed connections include splices and the connection at the
cablehead between the gauge and the cable, but exclude the
make-break connections, such as wet-connectors.
Traditionally this was a weak element, but with the improved
cable quality, nowadays fewer splices are used. Also the use of
(partly) redundant metal-to-metal seals for fixed connections
has lead to improvements. One should however be careful not
to underestimate the importance of these fixed connections,
since it may very well be the case that a significant part of the
4 S.J.C.H.M. VAN GISBERGEN, A.A.H. VANDEWEIJER
unidentified failures is due to fixed connections. It is therefore
recommended to further improve the connections and use fully
redundant metal-to-metal seals.
Failure of mateable connectors
Most common mateable connectors are the wet-connectors in
subsea completions, but also in platform/land systems, a
connector is used at the wellhead outlet. Failures of these
elements are often caused by a broken seal at the position
where the connector is attached to the cable or by an improper
electrical contact between the cable and the connector.
Improvements have been made by using redundancy in the
metal-to-metal seals. Further improvements can be made by
taking more care during installation as most connector failures
occur at this time.
Other failures
The third highest cause of failures is those of other elements.
Examples are failures of prototypes and of the control pod
interface card. Failures of prototypes are by their nature more
likely and can only be prevented by more rigorous shop testing
including complete system integration and stack-up testing.
Failures of the control pod interface can be prevented by
testing of the complete system with the control pod and not
relying upon system simulators. Functional testing of the
complete PDG system after completion should also be
completed to ensure that the pod interface and downhole
system are performing to specification. Also standardisation of
the downhole communication protocol will reduce the various
types of control cards that are in use, which will have a
positive impact on reliability.
Summary
In Table 1, the failing elements and the recommended actions
are summarised. For many elements, the actual care during the
installation is important. This can be achieved by making the
functionality of the gauge part of the well gain-share incentive
scheme. Further improvements of the system by the service
companies can be stimulated by performance based pay, as has
been used e.g. for ESPs.
Reliability per service company
The dataset that we have enables us to make a comparison
of reliability between the service companies for the systems
installed since 1997. This is shown in Fig. 8 together with
90% confidence intervals, that give a 90% chance that the real
value of the reliability is within these intervals. It shows that
none of the service companies have likely reached the target of
90% survival probability over 5 years if we extrapolate these
curves. It also shows that differences exist in performance of
the various service companies. It should be noted that these
differences are partly caused by the fact that some service
companies have done more difficult installations than others (a
subsea installation under stormy conditions is different from a
platform or land one under mild conditions). However, Service
Companies should be aware that performance comparisons
may very well impact which company to select, and they
should therefore seriously address their systems performance,
in all aspects.
OTC 10945
Conclusions
This report shows that historically PDG systems for measuring
pressure and temperature exhibited a low reliability. In the
period 1987-1992, substantial improvements have been made,
which has increased the 5-year survival probability to 75% for
systems installed in the period 1991/92. However, since 1992
no further improvements have been made in reliability. This
has resulted in a 5-year survival probability of 69% for the
installation period 1993 till 1998.
We have identified what improvements need to be made to
achieve the target 5-year survival probability of 90%:
technical quality, care during installation and management of
interface. We believe that a system reliability well above the
90% reliability over 5 years is achievable if these
improvements are implemented. Financial incentives could be
considered to stimulate this, such as making the correct
functioning of the PDG system part of the well gain-share
incentive scheme, and/or pay-for-data schemes.
Improvements in reliability will be required, not only for
PDG systems that measure pressure and temperature, but also
for more complex downhole systems that are entering the
market, such as inflow control devices, flow meters, reservoir
monitoring devices, etc. These new systems will form a suite
of equipment to meet various business needs and will probably
increase the market potential of permanent downhole
installations still further. However, for all these systems
reliability will be a key issue in the decision process to install
them. The lessons-learned from pressure and temperature
monitoring systems can be very useful input to achieve the
required high-level of reliability.
References
1.Unneland,T. and Haugland,T.:”Permanent downhole gauges used in
reservoir management of complex North Sea oil fields”, paper SPE
26871 presented at the 1993 SPE Offshore European Conference,
Aberdeen UK.
2.Gertsbakh,I.B.:”Statistical reliability theory”, Marcel Dekker, New
York (1989)
Table 1 Overview of the failure causes with the number of failures due to each cause as a percentage of all
identified failures and the proposed main action to overcome them, for p,T systems installed in 1995-
1998.
Failure % of identified fail. Main action
Cable 17 More care during installation
Protective cap tubing hanger
Calculate required crush resistance: use bumper bars
Design special protectors for guiding cable across large
completion components
Gauge 40 Use of dedicated electronics
Burn-in and vibration/shock testing
Destructive testing at completely actual conditions
Mateable connection 3 Improved installation (Incentive payment scheme)
Fixed connection 1 Use full redundant metal-to-metal seals
Other elements, e.g. 8 1) No specific action (prototype failures will happen)
1) Prototypes 2) Functional testing of the complete system.
2) Control pod interface
6 S.J.C.H.M. VAN GISBERGEN, A.A.H. VANDEWEIJER OTC 10945

Wellhead outlet

Wet connector

Splice

Downhole cable

Cross-coupling protector

Cablehead

Gauge mandrel

Fig. 1 - Schematic sketch of a subsea PDG system.

OTC 10945 RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF PERMANENT DOWNHOLE MONITORING SYSTEMS 7

250
number of installations

200

150 land
subsea
100 platform

50

0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
year of installation

Fig. 2 - Number of PDG installations as a function of the year of installation (1998 until August).

95
85 87/88
reliability [%]

75 89/90
65 91/92
93/94
55
95/96
45
97/98
35
25
11

16

21

26

31
36

41

46

51

56
61
1
6

operational time [Months]

Fig. 3 - Reliability of PDG systems (p,T) for 6 periods of installation: 1987/88, 1989/90, 1991/92, 1993/94, 1995/96 and 1997/98.
8 S.J.C.H.M. VAN GISBERGEN, A.A.H. VANDEWEIJER OTC 10945

Fig. 4 - Division of the PDG systems (p,T) into those that have survived 1 year, and into the failing element, for those that have failed. This is
done for 6 periods of installation.

Cable 17%

Not Identified 31% . Fixed connections

1%

Mateable connectors
3%

Other 8%

Gauge 40%

Fig. 5 - Division of the failures of the PDG p,T systems, installed in 1995-1998, according to the failing element.
OTC 10945 RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF PERMANENT DOWNHOLE MONITORING SYSTEMS 9

200
180
Number of installations

160
140
120 subsea
100
80 platform/land
60
40
20
0
0-59 60-79 80-99 100- 120- 150-
119 149 200
Bottom hole tem perature [Degr. C.]

Fig. 6 - Temperature distribution of the PDG systems installed in 1995-1998.

100

90
Re lia b ility [% ]

80

70

60

50

40
0 -5 9 6 0 -7 9 8 0 -9 9 1 0 0 -1 1 9 1 2 0 -1 4 9
Bo tto m h o le te m p e r a tu r e [D e g r . C]

Fig. 7 - The 1-year survival probability of systems installed in 1995-1998 as a function of bottomhole temperature, with 90% confidence
intervals.
10 S.J.C.H.M. VAN GISBERGEN, A.A.H. VANDEWEIJER OTC 10945

survival probability

100
90 Service company A
80 Service company B
[%]

70 Service company C
60 Service company D
50

11
13
15
17
19
21
1
3
5
7
9
operating time [Months]

Fig. 8 - Reliability of PDG systems installed in 1997/98, split-up according to the service company, with 90% confidence intervals.