SHIP COLLISION AND GROUNDING

SIMULATIONS AS A PART OF REGIONAL RISK

ASSESSMENT

BONUS STORMWINDS Project

Research group:
Kristjan Tabri
Martin Heinvee
Hendrik Naar
Jaanek Laanearu
Monika Sergejeva
Annika Urbel

DATAS Workshop, 19.04 2017

AIMS

• RISK ANALYSIS of maritime (oil) transportation

(in winter conditions)
• OPERATIONAL TOOL for a rapid assessment of
maritime accidents in means of
– structural damage
– possible oil spill
– environmental consequences
• to SUPPORT decision makers in oil spill
recovery operations and in the development
of preventive measures.

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EVALUATION OF ACCIDENTAL CONSEQUENCES

SCENARIO
ASSESSMENT
CONSEQUENCES
GROUNDING DAMAGE

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GROUNDING DAMAGE FE MODELS

Model is based on regression

analysis of numerical simulations
(tankers according to HST-OT rules)
GROUNDING DAMAGE

Damage (opening) length ldam

∆ ∙ 𝑣2 ∆ ∙ 𝑣2
𝐹𝐻 ∙ 𝑙𝑑𝑎𝑚 = → 𝑙𝑑𝑎𝑚 =
2 2𝐹𝐻

Grounding force
𝐹 𝐿, 𝑎, 𝛿, ℎ𝑑𝑏 = 𝑃 ∙ 𝐴 = ത
𝑓𝑐𝑇 (𝐿) ∙ 𝑃(𝑎) ∙ 𝐴(𝑎, 𝛿, ℎ𝑑𝑏 ) ∙ (0.105𝛿 + 1.04)
𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑐𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑃 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑐𝑡 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝐴 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡.𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔𝑖𝑡.𝐵𝐻
double-bottom height
penetration depth
rock size parameter
ship length
OPENING WIDTH

FEM OUTER BOTTOM

MODEL
INNER BOTTOM

The onset of inner

bottom failure is
determined by simple
criterion.

s
COLLISION DAMAGE
COLLISION DAMAGE

• Model is based on regression

analysis of numerical simulations
(tankers according to HST-OT
rules)
• Includes bow flare and bulb
collision
• Includes the effects from ice
COLLISION DAMAGE
• Probability of inner hull
breaching
• Size of damage opening is
based on the penetration
depth and relative position
OIL OUTFLOW
OIL OUTFLOW MODEL

• The oil outflow model

calculates the amount and
duration of the oil spill
• Can include winter conditions
• The oil outflow time and
volume
 COLLISION AND GROUNDING
ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF OF FINLAND
GROUNDING: SCENARIOS

 16 ships (oil tankers)

 Length ranges from 84 m to 254 m
 Five oil types: Asphalt, Gasoline, Light
diesel oil, Light-medium crude, Heavy
crude
 Six rock sizes
 Five velocities
 Five water depths
 Two ice thicknesses

Combined to 24 000 grounding scenarios

Computation time about 1 min
GROUNDING: RESULTS
Parameters:
Rock size a = 1 [1/m]
Velocity v = 10 kn
water depth w_d = 3 m
h_ice = 0.1 m

Variable: ship displ

(denoted with marker) &
oil type (color)

Ice cover effect (at ice thickness 0.1 m)

to the oil spill is negligible (<1 %)
GROUNDING: RESULTS

Oil type=light diesel oil

a = 1 [1/m]
w_d = 6 m
h_ice = 0.1 m

Variables: 13 ships
Velocities 2, 4, 6 kn
COLLISION: CRASHWORTYNESS AS A RISK CONTROL OPTION

• For example, what if the ships we much stronger?

• Oil spill from more than 2300 collision scenarios that could
theoretically occur in the Gulf of Finland.

(b) RCO2 design with two times (c) RCO4 design with four
(a) initial design times higher energy
higher energy absorption capacity
absorption

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OPERATIONAL TOOL
APPLICATION

Developed into WEB-BASED

APPLICATION and integrated
to SeatrackWeb and
SmartResponseWeb
OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT
• Example of fictional grounding of 180 m tanker close to Port
of Muuga
• The accident occurs on 3rd of October 2013
• Several grounding velocities, bottom shapes and penetration
depths are studied

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OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT: DAMAGE & SPILL
Seatrack Web

spill
amount

spill
trajectory SmartResponse
Web

consequences

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DIFFERENT SPILL TRAJECTORIES

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ADSAM, Seatrack Web and SmartResponse Web are used in oil
spill response training

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DISCUSSION

 Simplified models for the overall picture of

accidental risks
 Numerical models for ship-specific detailed
analysis
• Accidental limit state design is not very much
considered in ship design except for offshore
and inland shipping
• Relevant approach still missing for seagoing
ships?

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