Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

About the Survey

A Pre-election Tracker Survey (the first round) was conducted in Gujarat by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of
Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from August 9 through
August 16, 2017 among 4090 voters in 200 locations (polling stations) spread across 50 assembly
constituencies (the State has a total of 182 assembly constituencies). The sampling design adopted was Multi-
stage random sampling. The assembly constituencies where the survey was conducted were randomly selected
using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, four polling stations within each of the sampled
constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, the respondents were also
randomly selected from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations.

Before going to the field for the survey, field investigators were imparted training about the survey method and
interviewing techniques at a day-long training workshop held in Ahmedabad and Anand. The field
investigators conducted face-to-face interviews of the respondents in Gujarati asking them a set of standardized
questions. The duration of an interview was about 25 minutes. At some locations the non-availability of
sampled respondents or difficulty in finding households necessitated replacements or substitutions.

The achieved raw sample is quite representative of Gujarat’s population profile. It has been weighted by
gender, locality, religion, and caste group based on Census 2011. The poll has an overall margin of error of
plus or minus 2.2 points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

Profile of Achieved Sample in Gujarat

Survey Census
Sample (raw) 2011
(%) (%)
Scheduled Caste 7.7 6.7
Scheduled Tribe 16.3 14.7
Muslim 10.1 9.7
Women 46.1 47.8
Urban 39.8 44.6

The fieldwork of the survey was coordinated by Mahashweta Jani (Researcher, Ahmedabad) and Dr. Bhanu
Parmar (Associate Professor, Nalini-Arvind & T.V.Patel Arts College, Vallabh Vidyanagar, Anand district).
The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti. The team included Dhananjay
Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. The survey was
directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti.

Survey details in a nutshell

Conducted by Lokniti-CSDS, for ABP News
Dates of fieldwork Aug 9-16, 2017
No. of Assembly Constituencies covered 50
No. of Polling Stations (Locations) covered 200
No. of interviews of voters conducted (Sample size) 4090
Overall Margin of Error +/- 2.2
Sampling method Multi-stage random sampling
Fieldwork method Standardized face-to-face interview in Gujarati
 

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
August 31, 2017

BJP way, way ahead of the Congress in Gujarat at the current moment

Lokniti team

It’s going to take no less than a gargantuan effort on the part of the Congress party to defeat the Bharatiya
Janata Party in the Gujarat Assembly elections due to take place at the end of the year. The first round of the
Tracker poll (there will be more rounds in the months ahead) conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS for ABP
News, finds the ruling BJP, which has been in power in Gujarat for the last two decades, to be way, way ahead
of the Congress at the current moment. As things stand right now, the upcoming election of Gujarat appears
like a ‘no-contest’ with the BJP leading its arch-rival by over thirty percentage points in terms of people’s
voting intention. Close to three in every five (59%) randomly sampled voters said that they would vote for the
BJP if state elections were to take place now. Only about one in three (29%) were found to be rooting for the
Congress. This means that the BJP has thus far managed to retain the level of support it received in the 2014
Lok Sabha election and the Congress has slid down further. A note of caution is in order here - pre-election
surveys done this early when campaigning hasn’t begun and candidates haven’t been named usually suffer
from some amount of over-reporting by voters in favour of the ruling party, so this wide gap between the BJP
and Congress could lessen in the weeks and months ahead. However with a gap so massive, bridging it entirely
in just four months is going to be a very tall order for the Congress. The survey fielded from August 9 to
August 16 among a representative sample of 4090 voters spread across Gujarat found the BJP to be leading the
Congress in each and every region of the State and quite handsomely at that. Not only does the ruling party
continue to dominate the regions where it did well in 2012 assembly elections - Saurashtra, Kutch and South
Gujarat, it also appears to be widening its lead over its opponent in Central and North Gujarat – the two areas
where the Congress had put up a strong fight five years ago.

Moreover, contrary to popular analysis, the recent agitation by some Patel leaders demanding OBC status does
not seem to have greatly negatively impacted the BJP’s popularity among its staunchest voters, the Patels, with
nearly three in every four voters belonging to the dominant community still supporting the party. This is
despite the fact that the survey found that six of every ten Patels like Hardik Patel (who has vowed to “finish
the BJP in Gujarat”) and that close to two-thirds of them support the OBC status demand (which has not been
met yet). Other than holding on to its core voters, the BJP seems to have also made some serious inroads
among the old voting bloc of the Congress - Kshatriyas, Dalits, Tribals and Muslims - politically known as
KHAM. While the Kshatriya drift away from the Congress has been going on since the mid-1990s, what is
stunning are the BJP’s gains among Dalits, Tribals and Muslims. The Una Dalit flogging incident does not
seem to have resulted in a consolidation of Dalits behind the Congress. On the contrary, the party’s
traditionally high lead over the BJP among Dalits has narrowed considerably. The survey found one in every
four Dalits to be unaware of the incident and the BJP leads the Congress among this segment. Even among the
three-fourths Dalits who know about the incident, the Congress’s lead over the BJP is not too high currently.
Among Muslims too, the Congress’s stock seems to have fallen with one in every four of them indicating
support for the BJP at present. The level of support for the BJP among Muslim men and women is nearly the
same. What is most remarkable however is the support that the BJP seems to be getting among Tribals. For
the first time in many years, it leads the Congress among this critical segment of voters that constitute about 15
percent of the state’s electorate. This tribal shift to the BJP is particularly significant as even during the ‘wave’
election of 2014, a majority of them had stood by the Congress. Significantly, the survey also found tribal
households to have benefitted much more from some of the Central government schemes like Ujjwala (free
LPG cylinders to Poor families) than households of other communities.
 

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
The survey found a sentiment of pro-incumbency to be prevailing in Gujarat as of now. About 70 percent of
the voters said they were satisfied with the performance of the State BJP government during the last five years
and 63 percent expressed a strong or moderate desire to see the BJP government back in office for yet another
term. Nearly three in every five (57%) were also satisfied with the aid work done by the Gujarat government
during and after the recent floods that affected some parts of the State. Satisfaction was also fairly high among
the few respondents who said that their area had been badly affected by floods.

Interestingly, while the survey found farmers, traders, women and the youth to be quite satisfied with the
Gujarat government’s performance in resolving their concerns, their positive assessment was found to be
tilting more towards the moderate zone, that is, all these categories of voters were more likely to say that the
Gujarat government had ‘somewhat succeeded’ in resolving their issues than ‘fully succeeded’. In fact, the
proportion of those saying the government had ‘fully failed’ in addressing their concerns was greater than the
proportion who said it had ‘fully succeeded’. Further, if there is one area in which the Gujarat government
doesn’t do too well, it is that of caste and community welfare. Voters across all castes and communities, be it
Patels, Kshatriyas or Dalits, were more likely to say that the government had failed to address the problems of
their caste-community than it had succeeded.

What seems to be working in the BJP’s favour the most is its decision to replace Anandiben Patel with Vijay
Rupani as the chief minister a year ago. When asked whose performance as chief minister had been better
among the two, twice as many chose Rupani’s term as they did Patel’s term (34% to 17%). This perhaps means
that any anti-incumbency sentiment that might have existed against Patel’s government may now have
weakened with Rupani as the State’s leader. The survey also tried to measure the likeability of the two leaders
and found Rupani to be slightly ahead of his predecessor in this respect as well. While 73 percent of the voters
said they like Rupani, 66 percent said they like Patel. Importantly, the survey found Anandiben Patel’s
supporters (those who have been traditional BJP voters and prefer her tenure to Rupani’s) to be nearly as
enthusiastic about voting for the BJP as Rupani’s supporters.

In fact, at the moment there seems to be no major challenger to Vijay Rupani for the position of chief minister
within or outside the BJP and he leads the chief ministerial race by a wide margin. In response to an open
ended question on chief minister preference, 24 percent of the voters said they would like to see Rupani back at
the helm. The preference for other leaders on the other hand was in single digits. About 7 percent yearn for
Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come back and govern Gujarat and around 5 percent said they would like to
see Anandiben Patel as CM. Interestingly, 43 percent of the voters did not take the name of any leader. What
is however most remarkable is that only one Congress leader, Bharatsinh Solanki made it to the top five
choices and even his ratings are abysmally low. Only a few respondents (2% of the sample) said they would
like to see him as chief minister. Nearly just as many also took the name of Shankersinh Vaghela, the
disgruntled Congress leader who quit the party recently. In fact, the poll found Vaghela to be more liked by the
people than Solanki. While 45 percent of the voters said they like Vaghela, only 31 percent said they like
Solanki (25% had not even heard about him!). Even among traditional Congress voters, Solanki has no edge
over Vaghela in terms of likeability (both leaders were liked by 53% such respondents). Meanwhile, in
response to another question on who the Congress should declare as its chief ministerial candidate, 4 percent
of Congress’s traditional voters took Vaghela’s name (even though he is no longer in the Congress party) and
13 percent said Solanki. Significantly, 41 percent of them did not take the name of any Congress leader
indicating the crisis of leadership within the Gujarat Congress at the moment.
 

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
Not only is the Congress’s state leadership unpopular, its national leadership’s popularity is also on the
decline. Less than half (48%) the respondents said that they like Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi. When
the same question had been asked by Lokniti in Gujarat during a survey in July 2013, a much higher
proportion - 57 percent – had said that they liked Gandhi. On the other hand, Prime Minister Modi’s already
high popularity in the State has grown further over the last four years. In 2013, Modi was liked by 66 percent
of Gujarat’s voters. In the latest survey, his likeability has touched 82 percent. Surprisingly, BJP President
Amit Shah’s popularity does not seem to be all that high. Just 50 percent of the voters said they like him (19%
like him a lot and 31% like him somewhat).

The survey found high satisfaction with the performance of the Modi government at the Centre (67%),
although a majority (50%) was also of the opinion that the Prime Minister had not yet succeeded in bringing
the achhe din he had promised during the 2014 campaign. Nevertheless, most voters were found to be highly
supportive of both demonetization and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and also quite
satisfied with the way they were implemented. However, people’s approval of GST and the way it has been
implemented is not as enthusiastic as their approval of demonetization.

While it is still early days and there could still be some twists and turns in Gujarat’s politics before voters vote
in December, all in all, as the situation exists today the BJP looks extremely comfortably placed to win
another term in its bastion.
 

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
Important findings from the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

Gujarat voters’ voting intention if assembly elections are held now (August 2017)
BJP way, way ahead of the Congress four months before actual polls

Voting intention Change since Change since

at present Vidhan Sabha Lok Sabha
(Aug 2017) (%) election 2012 (% points) election 2014 (% points)
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 59 +11 0
Congress (Cong) 29 -10 -4
Others 12 -1 +4
Note: The vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by voters through a secret dummy ballot. Undecided voters
who did not disclose their preference have been distributed based on their answers to other questions. The figures have also been adjusted
for the known patterns of under reporting for small parties and over reporting for the ruling party during pre-poll surveys.
Question asked was: If assembly elections in Gujarat take place tomorrow, then which party will you vote for?

Pro-incumbency sentiment across all regions at present; strongest in Saurashtra

Present State Present State Present No
Govt should Govt. should State Govt should Opinion
continue perhaps continue GO! (%)
(%) (%) (%)
All of Gujarat 50 13 25 12
Saurashtra and Kutch 54 12 21 13
North Gujarat 49 10 28 13
Central Gujarat 51 14 27 8
South Gujarat 46 19 25 10
Question asked was: Should the present BJP government in Gujarat get another chance?

Voting intentions of castes and communities at the moment - BJP consolidates base and makes gains
Caste-community Voting behaviour at present
Upper castes Very strongly with BJP
Patels Very strongly with BJP
Kshatriya Strongly with BJP
Kolis Very Strongly with BJP
Other OBCs Strongly with BJP
Dalits With Congress but BJP has made major inroads
Tribals With BJP, used to be with Cong till 2014
Muslims With Congress, but BJP making inroads

Spontaneous Chief Minister Preference -Vijay Rupani way ahead of others right now; 43% took no name
(%)
Vijay Rupani 24
Narendra Modi 7
Anandiben Patel 5
Bharatsinh Solanki 2
Amit Shah 2
Shankersinh Vaghela 2
Ahmed Patel 2
Shaktisinh Gohil 2
Other names (1% or less) 11
Did not take any name 43
Question asked was: After the upcoming assembly election who would you like to see as the chief minister of Gujarat?
The question was asked in an open ended manner, i.e., respondents were not offered any choices. These are their spontaneous responses.
 

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
Crisis of leadership in Gujarat Congress - Staunch Cong voters seem badly divided on the question of who
the party’s chief ministerial candidate should be; two in every five could not take any name
Bharatsinh Shaktisinh Ahmed Arjun Shankersinh Other No
Solanki Gohil Patel Modhwadia Vaghela leaders response
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
All voters 7 4 3 3 3 14 66
Traditional 13 9 7 3 4 23 41
Cong voters
Question asked was: Who should the Congress declare as its chief ministerial candidate in the upcoming assembly election?
The question was asked in an open ended manner, i.e, respondents were not offered any choices. These are their spontaneous responses.

One in every five Congress voters sympathizes with Vaghela and nearly half refused to take a position on
the Vaghela issue
Cong disrespected Vaghela betrayed No
Vaghela, hence he was Congress by quitting opinion
right in leaving the just before elections (%)
party (%)
(%)
All voters 23 24 53
Cong voters 20 34 46
BJP voters 25 19 56
Others’ voters 19 27 54
Question asked was: People have different opinions about Shankersinh Vaghela leaving the Congress. Some believe that the Congress
disrespected a big leader like Vaghela and hence Vaghela’s decision to leave the Congress is right. Some others say that the Congress did a
lot for Vaghela and it was Vaghela who betrayed the Congress by leaving the party just a few months before the elections? Which opinion
among the two do you agree with?

At least one in every four Congress voters wants Vaghela to return to the Congress
Vaghela should Vaghela should Vaghela should Quit No
start his own join BJP return to politics response
party (%) Congress %) (%)
(%) (%)
All voters 5 16 11 24 45
Cong voters 4 5 25 30 36
BJP voters 5 24 4 19 48
Others’ voters 4 7 10 30 50
Note: Row percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Question asked was: What should Shankersinh Vaghela do now – should he form his own party, should he join the BJP or should he go
back to the Congress? (The option of ‘quit politics’ was a silent option)

Divided opinion on recent defection of Congress MLAs to BJP; many did not express an opinion
Cong MLAs joined BJP BJP paid Congress MLAs No
on their own money to join response
(%) (%) (%)
All voters 31 26 43
Cong voters 17 46 37
BJP voters 40 15 45
Others’ voters 22 37 41
Question asked was: People have different opinions about some Congress MLAs joining the BJP. Some say that these MLAs have joined
the BJP of their own volition, while some others say that the BJP paid them money to join the party. What is your opinion?
 

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
Satisfaction with BJP-led State govt. very high although it has dropped somewhat since last survey in May
May 2017 August 2017
(%) (%)
Fully satisfied 33 37
Somewhat satisfied 44 32
Somewhat dissatisfied 10 14
Fully dissatisfied 10 13
No opinion 5 4

TOTAL SATISFIED 77 69
TOTAL DISSATISFIED 20 27
Note: Column percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Question asked was: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work done by the BJP government in Gujarat over the last five years? (If
satisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat. If dissatisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat)
May 2017 figures are from the Mood of the Nation Survey 2017 conducted by Lokniti in Gujarat; Sample size was 587.

There is a general perception that the State govt did a good job in dealing with the recent flood situation;
even among the few who said their area was badly affected satisfaction was fairly high
Satisfied with Dissatisfied No
aid work by with aid work response
State govt. by State govt. (%)
during & after during &
floods (%) after floods (%)
All voters 57 20 23
Voters who said their area was badly affected (7%) 43 50 7
Voters who said their area was somewhat affected (21%) 65 26 9
Voters who said their area was not affected at all (68%) 60 14 27
No response (4%) 19 20 61
Note: Row percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Questions asked were: 1. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the aid work done for the people by the Gujarat government during and
after the floods? (If satisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat. If dissatisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat)
2. How much was your area affected by the recent floods in Gujarat – a lot, somewhat or not at all?

Plurality of staunch BJP voters prefer Vijay Rupani’s performance to Anandiben Patel’s
Vijay Rupani Anandiben Both have Both have No
has performed Patel performed performed response
better than performed equally equally (%)
Anandiben as better than well poorly
CM Rupani as CM (%) (%)
(%) (%)
All voters 34 17 17 21 11
Traditional/staunch BJP voters 45 20 20 7 8
Question asked was: Whose performance has been better as chief minister of Gujarat – Vijay Rupani’s or Anandiben Patel’s?

Even staunch BJP supporters who prefer Anandiben over Rupani are rooting for the BJP at the moment,
although they are slightly less likely to do so than Rupani supporters
Voting for Voting for Voting for
BJP (%) Cong (%) Others (%)
Staunch BJP voters who prefer Anandiben over Rupani 88 8 4
Staunch BJP voters who prefer Rupani over Anandiben 95 2 3
 

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
Like with State govt., satisfaction with Modi’s govt continues to be high, however it’s declined since May
May 2017 August 2017
% %
Fully satisfied 29 37
Somewhat satisfied 46 30
Somewhat dissatisfied 9 15
Fully dissatisfied 7 11
No opinion 10 7

TOTAL SATISFIED 75 67
TOTAL DISSATISFIED 16 26
Note: Column percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Question asked was: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work done by the Narendra Modi led BJP/NDA government at the Centre
over the last three years? (If satisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat. If dissatisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat)
May 2017 figures are from the Mood of the Nation Survey 2017 conducted by Lokniti in Gujarat; Sample size was 587.

Despite high satisfaction with Modi, most including many who voted BJP in 2014 still await Achhe Din
Agree that Narendra Modi Disagree that Narendra No
has failed in bringing Achhe Modi has failed in opinion
Din (%) bringing Achhe Din (%) (%)
All voters 50 42 8
BJP voters of 2014 44 48 8
Congress voters of 2014 64 28 8

Dalits 61 33 6
Muslims 59 36 5
Kolis 58 37 5
Question asked was: Narendra Modi has failed in bringing Achhe Din (good days). Do you agree or disagree with this statement?

Tribal households far more likely to have benefitted from Modi’s Ujwala & Awaas schemes than others
My household has benefitted from My household has benefitted from
Ujwala yojana (%) PM Awaas yojana (%)
All voters 28 13
Tribal voters 39 29
Questions asked were: Have you or any member of your household benefitted from the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana?
Have you or any member of your household benefitted from the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana?

Modi most liked leader followed by Rupani, Many haven’t heard of Solanki, Hardik Patel disliked by most
Like Dislike Not heard of him No response
(%) (%) (%) (%)
Narendra Modi 82 14 2 2
Vijay Rupani 73 19 5 5
Anandiben Patel 66 27 4 3
Amit Shah 50 30 11 9
Rahul Gandhi 48 38 5 9
Shankersinh Vaghela 45 35 9 12
Bharatsinh Solanki 31 28 25 16
Alpesh Thakore 30 26 33 12
Hardik Patel 28 46 10 16
Jignesh Mevani 16 29 40 16
Note: Row percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Question asked was: Do you like or dislike the following leaders? (Probe whether fully or somewhat like or dislike)
Strongly and somewhat like have been merged as ‘Like’ and strongly and somewhat dislike categories have been merged as ‘Dislike’
 

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
Modi’s already high popularity has risen in Gujarat in last four years, Rahul Gandhi’s has declined
Like Dislike
(%) (%)
Jul Aug Jul Aug
2013 2017 2013 2017
(%) (%) (%) (%)
Narendra Modi 66 82 17 14
Rahul Gandhi 57 48 20 38
Question asked was: Do you like or dislike the following leaders? (Probe whether fully or somewhat)
Note: Jul 2013 figures are from the Pre-Lok Sabha Election Tracker survey conducted by Lokniti in Gujarat; Sample size was 910.

One in four traditional BJP voters thinks the party will suffer electoral losses due to Modi’s absence
BJP will suffer Modi’s absence BJP will gain No opinion (%)
losses now that won’t make a now that
Modi is not in difference to the Modi is not in
Gujarat (%) BJP’s prospects (%) Gujarat (%)
All voters 29 31 8 32
Traditional BJP voters 26 40 9 25
Traditional Cong voters 44 22 7 27
Voters not aligned to a party 26 26 6 42
Question asked was: After 15 years, the BJP will fight the assembly election in Gujarat for the first time without Modi. Some believe that
due to this the BJP will suffer losses in the upcoming elections compared to the past. While some others believe that this won’t make a
difference to the BJP’s electoral performance. What is your opinion?

Even though Hardik Patel is quite unpopular overall, he is quite liked among Patels
Like Dislike Not heard of him No response
(%) (%) (%) (%)
Hardik Patel (opinion among Patels only) 61 27 2 10
Alpesh Thakore (opinion among Kshatriyas only) 53 19 19 9
Jignesh Mevani (opinion among Dalits only) 31 21 35 13
Question asked was: Do you like or dislike the following leaders? (Probe whether fully or somewhat)

Leuva Patels seem to be less supportive of Hardik Patel than Kadva Patels
Agree that Hardik Patel Disagree that Hardik No
used the Patidar Patel used the Patidar opinion
agitation for his own agitation for his own (%)
personal benefit (%) personal benefit (%)
All voters 44 29 27
Kadva Patel voters 31 61 8
Leuva Patel voters 44 46 10
Question asked was: Hardik Patel used the Patidar agitation for his own personal benefit. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
((If agrees then probe whether fully or somewhat. If disagrees then probe whether fully or somewhat)

Most important election issues will be price rise, jobs & poverty; one in four couldn’t think of an issue
(%)
Price rise 13
Unemployment 10
Poverty 9
Development 7
Drinking water supply 5
 

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
Corruption 5
Poor condition of roads 4
Good condition of roads 3
Housing 3
Farmer problems 3
Other issues (1% or less) 11
No response 27
Question asked was: If assembly elections in Gujarat take place tomorrow, then what will be the most important issue for you while
voting? (Note down answer and consult codebook for coding)
The question was asked in an open ended manner, i.e, respondents were not offered any choices. These are their spontaneous responses

Plurality supports demonetization and GST; but support for GST is much lower than for demonetization
(%)
Demonetization was a good move 55
Demonetization was a so-so move 22
Demonetization was a bad move 19
No opinion 4

GST was a good move 38

GST was a so-so move 22
GST was a bad move 25
No opinion 15
Question asked was: In your opinion was the decision of Demonetisation taken by the Modi government good or bad?
Question asked was: In your opinion was the decision of GST taken by the Modi government good or bad?

Plurality satisfied with how demonetization and GST were implemented, however satisfaction with GST
implementation is much lower than with demonetization
%
Satisfied with Demonetization implementation 67
Dissatisfied with Demonetization implementation 29
No opinion 4

Satisfied with GST implementation 52

Dissatisfied with GST implementation 33
No opinion 15
Question asked was: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Demonetisation was implemented? (Probe whether fully or somewhat)
Question asked was: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way GST was implemented? (Probe whether fully or somewhat)

Support for Patel demand for OBC status only among Patels
Support Patel demand for Oppose Pated demand No opinion
OBC status (%) for OBC status (%) (%)
All voters 24 40 36
Patel voters 63 21 16
Upper caste voters 28 40 32
OBC voters 18 44 38
Dalit voters 12 51 37
Tribal voters 17 42 41
Muslim voters 18 32 50
Question asked was: Do you support or oppose the demand by the Patel-Patidar community for inclusion in the OBC category? (If
supports then probe whether fully or somewhat. If opposes then probe whether fully or somewhat)
 

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 1

 
Awareness about Una incident higher than average among Dalits, but one in four haven’t heard of it
Heard of Una flogging incident (%)
All voters 58
Dalit voters 74
Question asked was: Have you heard about the incident of atrocity against Dalits in Una?

Dalit voters who haven’t heard of Una incident far more likely to vote BJP than those who are aware of it
Voting for BJP (%)
Dalit voters who have heard of Una (74%) 35
Dalit voters who haven’t heard of Una (26%) 51

Even as most farmers, traders, youths and women feel the State govt has succeeded in resolving their
problems, they are more likely to say ‘somewhat succeeded’ than ‘fully succeeded’; youths least satisfied
Guj. Govt. Guj. Govt. has Guj. Govt. has Guj. Govt. No
has Fully Somewhat Somewhat has Fully response
succeeded succeeded Failed failed (%)
(%) (%) (%) (%)
Resolving farmer problems 19 37 15 24 5
(farmer responses only)
Resolving Traders’ problems 10 37 23 14 16
(traders responses only)
Resolving Youths’ problems 12 33 22 21 12
(f18-35 year old responses only)
Resolving Women’s problems’ 17 32 17 21 13
(women responses only)
Question asked was: In your opinion has the Gujarat government succeeded or failed in resolving the problems of the following
communities? (If succeeded then probe whether fully or somewhat. If failed then probe whether fully or somewhat)

State govt gets low ratings on issue of caste welfare; all communities feel it’s failed in resolving their woes
In resolving my caste-community’s problems, the Gujarat govt. has…
Fully Somewhat Somewhat Fully No
succeeded succeeded failed failed Opinion
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Upper castes 10 24 18 23 25
Patels 10 31 24 24 11
OBCs 10 23 21 27 19
Dalits 7 17 20 34 22
Tribals 6 27 17 22 28
Muslims 7 26 17 30 20
Question asked was: In your opinion has the Gujarat government succeeded or failed in resolving the problems of your caste-community?
(If succeeded then probe whether fully or somewhat. If failed then probe whether fully or somewhat)