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The future of the Olympic Winter

Games in an era of climate change
a b a a
D. Scott , R. Steiger , M. Rutty & P. Johnson
a
Department of Geography and Environmental Management,
University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo,
Ontario N2 L 3G1, Canada
b
Tourism Business Studies, Management Center Innsbruck,
Weiherburggasse 8, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Published online: 25 Feb 2014.

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 Current Issues in Tourism, 2014
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2014.887664

The future of the Olympic Winter Games in an era of climate change

∗
D. Scotta , R. Steigerb, M. Ruttya and P. Johnsona
a
Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, 200
University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario N2 L 3G1, Canada; bTourism Business Studies,
Management Center Innsbruck, Weiherburggasse 8, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
(Received 14 January 2014; final version received 21 January 2014)

The Olympic Winter Games (OWG) stands as a symbol of international cross-cultural

exchange through elite-level sport. As a mega-event with a significant reliance on a
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specific range of weather conditions for outdoor competitions, the OWG have
developed several technologies and strategies to manage weather risk. Can these
climatic adaptations cope with future climate change? Based on an analysis of two
key climate indicators (probability of a minimum temperature of ≤08C, and
probability of a snow depth of ≥30 centimetres with advanced snowmaking
capacity), this paper examines how projected changes to climate will impact the
ability of the 19 previous host cities/regions to provide suitable conditions for
outdoor competitions in the future. The results indicate that while the 19 former
OWG hosts all have a suitable climate in the 1981–2010 period, only 11 or 10
(low –high-emission scenarios) remain climatically suitable in the 2050s, with as few
as 6 in the high-emission scenario of the 2080s. The analysis reveals that climate
change has important implications for the future geography of OWG host cities/
regions as well as broader implications for participation in winter sport.
Keywords: Olympic Winter Games; climate change; sports tourism; mega-events;
weather risk

Introduction
The Olympic Winter Games (OWG) will commemorate its first centennial in 2024. Over
the past nine decades, this increasingly global celebration of winter sport has grown to
become one of the world’s mega-events. The economic, social and environmental
impacts of the OWG vary significantly from games to games and have been widely
debated (International Olympic Committee [IOC], 2012a; Mangan & Dyreson, 2010;
Wallechinsky & Loucky, 2010). Nonetheless, the international prestige of hosting the
OWG and positive Olympic legacy for host cities/regions that can result from massive
infrastructure investment by higher levels of government, economic development and
increased tourism can explain why cities/regions compete aggressively for the opportunity
to host the Olympics.
The OWG is a mega-event with a significant dependency on weather conditions.
Weather directly affects preparations for the games, outdoor opening and closing cer-
emonies, fairness of outdoor competitions, the ability to complete the full competition pro-
gramme, spectator comfort, transportation, and visibility and timing of television

∗
Corresponding author. Email: daniel.scott@uwaterloo.ca

# 2014 Taylor & Francis

 2 D. Scott et al.

broadcasts. The success of the games has often been partially attributed to favourable
weather, while poor weather has been highlighted as one of the greatest challenges faced
by organising committees (Rutty, Scott, Steiger, & Johnson, 2014). While much of the
weather risk of historic OWG was overcome by moving competitions indoors, the specific
climate and terrain conditions required by the diverse outdoor winter sports that comprise
the OWG restrict the range of cities/regions that are capable of hosting the event.
Rutty et al. (2014) document the wide range of climatic adaptation strategies (e.g. tran-
sition of some competitions to indoor venues, snowmaking and advanced weather forecast-
ing) that have been developed over the last 90 years to manage weather risk at the OWG. The
need for weather risk management strategies by Olympic organisers has intensified, as the
average February daytime temperature of OWG locations has steadily increased – from
0.48C in the 1920–1950s, to 3.18C in the 1960–1990s, to 7.88C in games held in the
twenty-first century (Rutty et al., 2014). Indeed, it would be difficult to imagine successfully
completing the Olympic programme exclusively on natural ice and snow at the warmer host
locations of the early-twenty-first century, compared to the colder and decidedly more alpine
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hosts of the early decades of the twentieth century. As weather-related impacts at recent OWG
clearly reveal, there are limits to what current weather risk management strategies can cope
with. These limits will be increasingly tested in a warmer world.
As the world comes together for the 22nd Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia in 2014, the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has begun to release
the findings of its fifth Assessment on global climate change. The first report (IPCC,
2013) documents the observed changes in the global climate system, including a 0.858C
warming in global average surface temperatures between 1880 and 2012 and continued
decline in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and glacier ice since the mid-twentieth
century. With even stronger scientific confidence, the IPCC (2013) concluded that the
‘human influence on the climate system is clear. . . . (and) . . . has been the dominant
cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century’. The IPCC (2013) also empha-
sises that human-caused global climate change has just begun, and depending on future
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, additional warming of global average surface tempera-
tures of 0.3 –4.88C (relative to 1986 – 2005) is likely to occur by end of the twenty-first
century. Critically, the IPCC (2013) anticipates that additional warming in the winter
months will cause a further decrease in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and ice extent.
The implications of this projected climate change for winter sports and mega-events
such as the OWG are unmistakable. Several studies have demonstrated the potential nega-
tive impact of future climate change on outdoor winter sports (see Scott, Hall, & Gössling,
2012 for a summary), but the implications of a warmer world for the OWG remains uncer-
tain. This paper assesses whether projected climate change represents a long-term risk to the
future viability of the OWG. Specifically, we examine which of the previous 19 host cities/
regions would continue to have a climate suitable to once again host the full outdoor
athletics programme of the OWG in the mid- to late-twenty-first century. Any differential
climatic suitability among past host cities/regions would have implications for the IOC’s
consideration of bids to host future OWG.

Literature review
The evolution of the OWG
The OWG is the world’s premier winter sporting event. This celebration of winter sport has
grown from a modest gathering of 250 amateur athletes from 16 countries competing in 16
medal events at the 1924 games in Chamonix, France, to over 2500 athletes, representing
 Current Issues in Tourism 3

82 countries, competing in 86 medal events at the 2010 games in Vancouver, Canada (IOC,
2013). The OWG has always attracted large numbers of spectators and international tourists
(Wallechinsky & Loucky, 2010), but has grown to become one of the world’s sporting
mega-events, with approximately 1.5 million tickets sold at each of the recent games in
Salt Lake City, USA and Vancouver, Canada (IOC, 2012a).
The OWG has undergone a radical transformation over the last 40 years, since the
decision to allow sporting professionals of all types to compete, promotion of the games
to the world through partnerships with media and commercialisation through a wide
range of private-sector sponsorships (Mangan & Dyreson, 2010; Preuss, 2004; Walle-
chinsky & Loucky, 2010). As a global mega-event, host regions and countries garner inter-
national prestige through the promotion of their natural and cultural heritage – both genuine
and packaged as a tourism product (Garcia, 2008) – during television broadcasts to a
worldwide audience of billions (e.g. the 2010 games reached 200 countries and a potential
audience of 3.8 billion people worldwide [IOC, 2013]). The worldwide media broadcast
revenues for the most recent games in Vancouver, Canada, exceeded US$1.2 billion
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(IOC, 2012a). The increased economic value of the games has influenced the timing of
events, to better coincide with prime viewing times of the largest markets and broadcast
sponsors) and increased the salience of weather risk management strategies to ensure
both quality of conditions and timing of competitions (Rutty et al., 2014).
The OWG generates economic, social and environmental impacts on the host city and
region. These negative and positive impacts have been widely debated elsewhere (Mangan
& Dyreson, 2010; Wallechinsky & Loucky, 2010). Negative impacts can include crowding
(Ritchie & Smith, 1991), price inflation (Ritchie & Aitken, 1984), increased crime
(Mihalik & Cummings, 1995) and long-term national or state/provincial government debt
(Preuss, 2004). Many examples exist of ‘white elephant’ sports infrastructure and large
public debt associated with hosting the Olympics. The IOC has become increasingly
mindful of these negative impacts and limits the qualifying host countries to those that
have the resources and infrastructure to successfully host an Olympic Games without nega-
tively impacting the region or nation. The IOC requires prospective cities/regions to include a
legacy plan in the bid proposal, to demonstrate the long-term economic, social and environ-
mental impacts the Olympics will have on the host region and has worked with host cities/
regions/countries to document the long-term legacies of the games (IOC, 2012a).
Although the overall economic benefit of hosting the Olympics varies significantly from
games to games, the Olympic legacy for host city/region is generally considered to be
positive. This is in part because higher levels of government (federal and state/provincial
levels) largely make the massive investment in infrastructure to host the games, leaving
much improved transportation systems, additional housing, and sporting and tourism
related infrastructure (Deccio & Baloglu, 2002; Gratton & Preuss, 2008; IOC, 2012b).
The stature of hosting an OWG also brings long-term business development and increased
tourism to host cities/regions (Bridges, 2008; IOC, 2012b; Jeong & Faulkner, 1996;
Madden, 2002; Ritchie & Smith, 1991; Smith & Stevenson, 2009). It is the promise of
these types of tangible economic and reputation benefits that drive cities and regions
from around the world to engage in the highly competitive and lengthy process of
bidding to host the OWG.

Climate change and vulnerability of winter sports

Concern about global climate change has increased worldwide and continues to feature pro-
minently in high-profile international policy debates. Reviews of international climate
 4 D. Scott et al.

change mitigation commitments conclude that the policy goal of restricting global warming
to below 28C is increasingly unlikely and the trajectory is towards a warming of +48C or
greater by the end of the twenty-first century (Peters et al., 2013). Although the conse-
quences of climate change will vary geographically, it is inevitable that all nations and econ-
omic sectors will have to adapt to additional climatic change in the decades ahead. This has
led to an explosion of interest in climate change impacts and adaptation research (Adger,
Arnell, & Tompkins, 2005; Janssen, Schoon, Ke, & Borner, 2006; Stehr & von Storch,
2010).
With multiple sensitivities to climate and environmental changes, the outdoor sports
industry, associated tourism sectors and mega-events such as the OWG are no exceptions.
The rapidly growing literature on climate change and recreation/tourism (Becken & Hay,
2007, 2012; Hall & Higham, 2005; Scott, McBoyle, Minogue, & Mills, 2006; Scott
et al., 2012) shows that the implications of climate change will vary by market segment
and geographic region, and that all tourism destinations will need to adapt to climate
change to minimise risks and capitalise on new opportunities, in an economically, socially
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and environmentally sustainable manner (Scott et al., 2012). For time-limited and weather-
dependent mega-events, such as the OWG, the implications of climate change are even
more significant, as events have substantially less flexibility to adopt activity or time sub-
stitution adaptations.
The risks posed by climate change to snow-based sports/recreation, particularly the
large international ski tourism industry, have received considerable attention in the scho-
larly literature, government assessment reports and the media. The climate change vulner-
ability of the ski industry has been examined to some extent by over 30 studies in 13
countries (Scott, Gössling, & Hall, 2012). This geographically and methodologically
diverse literature has consistently projected decreased reliability of natural snow cover,
shortened and more variable ski seasons, increased snowmaking requirements, contraction
in the number of operating ski areas, altered ski tourism revenues and employment, and
declining real-estate values of vacation properties. The extent and timing of these
impacts depend on the rate of climate change, the types of adaptation considered, and
the relative impact on competing ski tourism regions. International comparative analyses
of major ski markets have demonstrated that climate change risk is not evenly distributed
among or within regional ski tourism markets. Rather, they are specific destinations and ski
areas that are at risk due to a variety of climatological, operational and physical character-
istics (Scott & Steiger, 2013). This research points to a growing scarcity of specific environ-
mental conditions, coupled with infrastructural, economic and political criteria that could
support a mega-event, such as the OWG.
The current literature on mega-events, including the Olympics, points to limitations in
how environmental impacts are assessed and how environmental remediation and restor-
ation are implemented (Collins, Jones, & Munday, 2009; Laing & Frost, 2010). Despite
a high level of ‘environmentally friendly’ rhetoric from the IOC and strong integration
of environmental considerations into the bidding process (Cantelon & Letters, 2000), the
actual assessment of the environmental impacts of an event such as the Olympics
remains problematic (Collins et al., 2009). Dickson and Arcodia (2010) call for increased
inquiry into how events adopt sustainability policies, specifically outlining key failures of
the Olympic Games to consider environmental factors. As the global events sector remains
a significant contributor to climate change, the movement from consideration to actual
assessment and remediation of environmental impacts of the OWG is a needed initiative.
The declaration of the 2010 Vancouver OWG as ‘carbon neutral’, with carbon offset pro-
grammes and policies, stands as an initially foray into reconciling the overall climate and
 Current Issues in Tourism 5

environmental impacts of the OWG mega-event. With the implementation of climate adap-
tation technologies to ensure adequate conditions for Olympic competitions (Rutty et al.,
2014), the sustainability and environmental impact of future OWG is an area of pressing
research need.
Moreover, with the prominent role of snow and temperature-dependent sports at the
OWG, there is a clear relevance of sports and weather research for further understanding
the climate vulnerability of the games itself. Studies that have examined the impacts of
weather on Olympic sports (Borghesi, 2007; Koch & Panorska, 2013; Martin, 1996;
Peiser & Reilly, 2004; Verdaguer-Codina, Martin, Pujol-Amat, Ruiz, & Prat, 1995), cold
weather athletic performance (Buhl, Fauve, & Rhyner, 2001; Gould, Greenleaf, Chung,
& Guinan, 2002; Niinimaa, Shephard, & Dyon, 1979; Rammsayer, Bahner, & Netter,
1995) and winter tourism events (Scott et al., 2002; Scott, McBoyle, Minogue, & Mills,
2006) offer additional insights into how changing temperatures and snow conditions
could affect the performance of Olympic athletes and the comfort of spectators. This
study considers the insights from this body of work in the specific context of developing
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climate change vulnerability indicators and adaptation strategies.

Snowmaking as a winter sports climate adaptation

The technical production of snow as a way to improve or guarantee snow conditions for
winter sports was first implemented in 1952 at a ski resort in the USA (Scott et al., 2012).
Snowmaking technology has since become nearly universally employed by ski areas through-
out Eastern Canada and the USA (Scott & McBoyle, 2007). Additionally, snowmaking is
widely adopted in all major ski regions of the world, including Western North America,
the European Alps, Japan, and Australia (Abegg, Agrawala, Crick, & De Montfalcon,
2007; Hennessy et al., 2008; Scott, 2006). The implementation of snowmaking has substan-
tially reduced the vulnerability of these ski tourism markets to adverse weather and inter-
annual climate variability (Dawson & Scott, 2013; Hennessy et al., 2008; Scott, Dawson,
& Jones, 2008; Scott, McBoyle, & Mills, 2003; Scott, McBoyle, & Minogue, 2007;
Steiger, 2010; Steiger & Abegg, 2013; Steiger & Stötter, 2013). Lake Placid in 1980 was
the first OWG to introduce snowmaking, which allowed alpine events to run on schedule
despite the worst snow drought in the eastern USA since 1887 (Lake Placid, 1980). Since
the late 1980s, snowmaking capacity has been mandatory for OWG competition sites.

Methods
Indicators for assessing the impact of climate change on the OWG
To assess which of the 19 locations that have formerly hosted the OWG would have a
climate suitable to potentially host future games in the mid- to late-twenty-first century
under projected climate change, several climatic indicators important to winter sports com-
petitions were identified from the literature, and a content analysis conducted of the official
post-games report submitted to the IOC by each from the Organising Committee from 1924
to 2010. Warm temperatures, rain, storms, fog, heavy snowfall and lack of snow were
reported to have caused a range of impacts at the OWG outlined by Rutty et al. (2014).
As indicated, much of the weather risk of former games has been overcome by moving
many competitions indoors, leaving outdoor sports including alpine and cross-country
skiing, ski jump and others vulnerable to natural conditions. Here, we focus on lack of
snow and the presence of rain and warm temperatures. Other potentially relevant
 6 D. Scott et al.

weather conditions, such as fog, heavy snowfall and storms are not adequately represented
in global climate models, precluding local-scale projections. The indicators identified, with
their relevance to winter sports competitions, specifically to the OWG which are typically
held in the month of February, are summarised below:

(1) probability of average maximum temperature ≥108C in February – maximum

temperatures above 108C cause substantial deterioration of snow and ice quality,
with a corresponding impact on durability (e.g. rutting) and fair/safe competition
surfaces (e.g. soft and slow ski surfaces), however the occurrence is typically
mid-day, so that scheduling of outdoor events can adapt, provided daily
minimum temperatures are below freezing;
(2) probability of average minimum temperature ≤08C in February – when daily
minimum temperatures are above freezing, snow and unrefrigerated ice surfaces
continue to degrade and cannot refreeze overnight (snowmaking is not possible
either), which can hamper the preparation of high-quality surfaces needed for
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elite competition and disrupt scheduling of competitions to ensure fair conditions

for athletes;
(3) number of days with liquid precipitation in February – rain at low temperatures is
unpleasant for spectators and can also negatively impact snow and ice quality for
competitions;
(4) probability of sufficient snow base for skiing – sufficient snow depth is a precondi-
tion for snow-based competitions, especially alpine and cross-country skiing
(a minimum snow depth of ≥30 centimetresin smooth terrain and ≥60 centimetres
in rough terrain are identified in the literature – Abegg, 1996; Scott, 2003);
(5) average natural snow depth on 1 February – natural snow fall has historically been
a critical climatological factor for winter sports, but as snowmaking has become
standard operating practice at elite international skiing events, the salience of
this indicator for the operational feasibility of the OWG has declined and now is
largely an aesthetic indicator, where snow cover provides an environment specta-
tors would expect at the OWG;
(6) average snow depth with snowmaking on 1 February – snowmaking has become
an integral technology to supplement natural snow fall at the OWG and the capacity
to make sufficient snow has supplanted natural snow fall as the key indicator of
operational feasibility for ski areas;
(7) number of snowmaking hours in January – efficient snowmaking is considered
physically possible at temperatures below 258C and with advanced snowmaking
systems capable of producing a skiable snow depth of 10 centimetres of snow per
day (Scott et al., 2008; Steiger & Abegg, 2013) a minimum of snowmaking 72
hours is needed to open a ski slope with 30 centimetre base or 144 hours for a
60 centimetre base.

This list of potential indicators was refined in three stages. First, indicators that would not
prevent sporting competitions from taking place, but rather would require scheduling
changes and reduce the winter aesthetic of the games, were eliminated from the analysis.
These types of indicators included rainfall and natural snow fall/depth. Second, strong
cross-correlations were found between the remaining temperature-based indicators, for
example, where temperature thresholds also have important influences on precipitation
indicators (i.e. when daily minimum temperature is above freezing, a considerable
amount of precipitation falls as rain, further deteriorating snow and ice quality). These
 Current Issues in Tourism 7

indicators were considered as secondary to the critical requirement of minimum daily

temperatures of ≤08C. Lastly, indicators of snowmaking capacity and hours are again
not deemed as critical indicators, but rather as subsets of the critical indicator of prob-
ability of a snow depth of ≥30 centimetres with advanced snowmaking capacity.
Without this level of snow depth (whether natural or artificial), outdoor events would
not be possible.
These two indicators (probability of minimum daily temperatures of ≤08C and the prob-
ability of snow depth ≥30 centimetres with advanced snowmaking capacity) were deter-
mined to provide the greatest insight into the climatic suitability of a city/region to host
the OWG under current or future climate conditions. A previous host location was deemed
climatically reliable if both indicators were achieved in 9 out of 10 winters (≥90% prob-
ability). If one or both indicators were achieved in less than 75% of winters, the location
was considered unreliable for elite Olympic competitions. If one indicator was achieved
≥90% of winters and the other indicator was achieved only 75–89% of winters, or when
both indicators were achieved 75–89% of winters, the location was classified as marginal/
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higher risk for the OWG. Each of the 19 former host locations was evaluated for its climatic
suitability in the baseline or current climate normal period (1981–2010), as well as four future
climate change scenarios (low- and high-emission scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s).

Data sources
Three sources of data (climate station data, climate change scenarios, and snowmaking oper-
ations model output) were used to operationalise the final set of two climate indicators at
each of the 19 previous host cities/regions. Historic climate data were obtained from inter-
national (World Meteorological Organization) and national meteorological organisations
(Deutscher Wetterdienst, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Meteo France,
Environment Canada, Meteo Swiss, Hydrografisches Amt Bozen and Arpa Piemonte). Fol-
lowing standard practice in climatology, 30-year periods (‘climate normal’) were defined for
each host city, representing average (i.e. ‘normal’) climate conditions over the time span.
Daily data were obtained from 1981–2010, representing the baseline period for analysis.
For each past host city/region, meteorological stations were chosen according to two criteria:
(1) distance to host city or main competition sites, and (2) length and completeness of his-
torical climate data record. Emphasis was placed on selecting meteorological stations within
close proximity, due to the alpine nature of many host cities/regions and the need to accu-
rately represent local climate. The climate station selected and the elevation at which the cli-
matological analysis was conducted (i.e. station data were adjusted to the elevations of the
majority of competitions using standard lapse rates) are identified in Table 1.
Climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation (monthly resolution) for
each of the 19 host city/regions were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project phase 5 (CMIP-5) (World Climate Research Program, 2013), which uses 24
global climate models to prepare simulations for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
(Taylor, Stouffer, & Meehl, 2012). Scenarios for two future periods were used in the analy-
sis: 2041– 2070 (referred to as the central decade of the ‘2050s’), representing climatic con-
ditions in the middle of the twenty-first century, and 2071 – 2100 (referred to as the central
decade of the ‘2080s’), representing late-twenty-first-century conditions. To consider the
possible range of future climates, the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCP) emission scenarios were used, with RCP 2.6 representative of a low GHG emission
future and RCP 8.5 representative of a high-emission future. The range of projected temp-
erature change during the winter months (December– January – February) at each of the
 8
D. Scott et al.
Table 1. Climate stations and altitudes analysed at each OWG host city/region.
Host city/region Year hosted OWG Altitude (masl) Station name Station altitude (masl) Altitude analyseda (masl) Lat Long
Chamonix 1924 1042 Chamonix 1042 1042 46.62 7.47
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St. Moritz 1928, 1948 1798 Segl Maria 1798 1798 46.16 9.77
Lake Placid 1932, 1980 591 Lake Placid 591 591 44.25 273.99
Garmisch-Partenkirchen 1936 719 Garmisch 719 719 47.48 11.06
Oslo 1952 1 Tryvasshogdab 514 300 59.98 10.67
Cortina d’Ampezzo 1956 1211 Toblach 1219 1700 46.73 12.22
Squaw Valley 1960 1899 Tahoe City 1899 1899 39.17 2120.14
Innsbruck 1964, 1976 578 Innsbruck 578 1600 47.26 11.38
Grenoble 1968 384 Grenoble St. Geoirs 384 1600 46.15 6.10
Sapporo 1972 26 Sapporoc 26 600 43.07 141.33
Sarajevo 1984 630 Sarajevod 630 1300 43.87 18.43
Calgary 1988 1048 Kananaskis Pocaterra 1610 1500 50.71 115.12
Albertville 1992 328 Chamonix 1042 2100 46.62 7.47
Lillehammer 1994 440 Venabu 930 200 61.65 10.11
Nagano 1998 419 Naganoc 419 1500 36.67 138.20
Salt Lake City 2002 1288 Heber 1704 2300 40.49 2111.43
Turin 2006 240 Prericharde 1353 1900 45.08 6.72
Vancouver 2010 10 Whistler Alta Lake 658 800 50.13 2122.95
Sochi 2014 30 Krasnaya Polyanad 568 900 43.68 40.20
a
The altitude analysed is that of the finish line of alpine skiing events held in each location (the most recent games, where a location has hosted the OWG more than once).
b
Missing data between 1976–1998. Temperature was extrapolated with data from station Oslo Blindern (94 metres above sea level, 59.94, 10.72) with monthly temperature lapse rates
derived from periods with data at both stations. Oslo Blindern does not record precipitation, therefore missing precipitation data at Tryvasshogda were filled with precipitation data from
station Bjornholt (360 metres above sea level, 60.05, 10.69).
c
Daily snow depth data were not of sufficient quality for Nagano and Sapporo, therefore SkiSim snow model performance was tested against the average number of days with snow on the
ground (snow cover) and monthly snowfall, which were available from the Japan Meteorological Agency for the baseline period.
d
Snow depth data were not available, therefore standard SkiSim parameter values (based on previous model applications, e.g. Steiger, 2010; Steiger & Abegg, 2013) were used.
e
For this station, only data from 1992– 2011 were available. No suitable nearby station was available to fill this missed data period, so the analysis could only be conducted with a shorter
‘normals’ period.
 Table 2. Projected winter (December, January and February) warming at each OWG host city/region.
2050s 2080s
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a
DJF Average Tmax Low emissions High emissions Low emissions High emissions
Host city/region 1981–2010 (RCP 2.6) (RCP 8.5) (RCP 2.6) (RCP 8.5)
Chamonix 4.5 +2.58C +3.08C +2.48C +4.58C
St. Moritz 20.1 +4.18C +4.88C +3.98C +6.38C
Lake Placid 20.9 +2.28C +3.98C +2.28C +6.38C
Garmisch- 4.6 +4.18C +4.88C +3.98C +6.38C
Partenkirchen
Oslo 0.7 +1.38C +2.48C +1.28C +4.28C
Cortina d’Ampezzo 3.5 +4.18C +4.98C +4.08C +6.58C
Squaw Valley 6.0 +2.18C +3.18C +2.28C +4.78C
Innsbruck 6.0 +4.18C +4.98C +4.08C +6.58C
Grenoble 7.1 +2.68C +3.28C +2.58C +4.68C
Sapporo 0.0 +2.08C +3.08C +1.98C +5.08C
Sarajevo 4.9 +2.08C +2.78C +2.08C +4.48C
Calgary 2.6 +1.18C +2.48C +1.38C +4.38C

Current Issues in Tourism

Albertville 7.3 +2.58C +3.08C +2.48C +4.58C
Lillehammer 22.5 +1.38C +2.48C +1.28C +4.28C
Nagano 4.3 +4.28C +5.38C +4.18C +6.98C
Salt Lake City 6.1 20.88C +0.98C 20.78C +2.88C
Turin 9.7 +2.58C +3.08C +2.48C +4.58C
Vancouver 5.9 +1.18C +2.28C +1.38C +4.18C
Sochi 8.5 +3.68C +4.28C +3.68C +5.88C
a
December, January, February.

9
 10 D. Scott et al.

former OWG host locations is presented in Table 2. Given that the global climate models
used in CMIP-5 provide projections of climate variables at a spatial resolution of approxi-
mately 250 km, the climate change scenarios were downscaled to the climate station repre-
senting each former host location (Table 1) using the LARS stochastic weather generator
(Semenov, 2013; Semenov & Barrow, 1997; Semenov & Stratonovitch, 2010). This
weather generator produces synthetic weather time series on a daily basis, keeping the
characteristics of the individual weather stations.
Snowmaking and snow depth data were produced using SkiSim2 (Steiger, 2010), a ski
operations simulation model, that incorporates both natural snowfall and advanced snow-
making capacities. SkiSim (1.0 and 2.0) has been used extensively to investigate the
potential impact of climate change on the ski industry in North America (Dawson &
Scott, 2013; Scott et al., 2003, 2006, 2008; Scott & Steiger, 2013) and Europe (Steiger,
2010; Steiger & Abegg, 2013; Steiger & Stötter, 2013). SkiSim 2 uses a degree-day-based
snow model, with an integrated snowmaking module that allows for an analysis of the
impact of climate change on ski operations, including snowmaking potential, impact of
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altitude on snow conditions (in 100 metre intervals) and snow – rain precipitation classi-
fication (for details, see Steiger, 2010). Key climate data inputs for SkiSim2 include daily
temperature and precipitation. These variables were obtained from the historical climate
record of the station nearest to each former host location and were extrapolated from the
altitude of the particular climate station to the host city and main competition site alti-
tudes, using a standard winter lapse rate of 0.48C/100 metres (see Kunz, Scherrer,
Liniger, & Appenzeller, 2007 for Switzerland, or Steiger & Abegg, 2013 for Austria)
and 3%/100 metres for precipitation (Steiger, 2010). For some Olympic host cities,
snow-based competitions were held at multiple altitudes (e.g. the start and a finish line
for alpine skiing across several hundred metres of vertical terrain). In such cases, the
highest finish line was used to represent the altitude of the competition. This choice is
conservative with respect to the potential climate change risk, but reflects the potential
for host cities to develop infrastructure and hold events at higher altitudes as an adaptation
to poor snow conditions at a lower altitude.

Results
Figure 1 illustrates the probability that minimum daily temperatures in February were ≤08C
at each of the 19 former host cities/regions during the baseline period (1981–2010) and under
the low- and high-emission scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s. In the baseline climate (1981–
2010), all locations have ≥90% probability of average daily minimum temperatures that
would remain below 08C. In the 2050s, between 8 (low-emission) and 9 (high-emission)
scenarios no longer fulfil this indicator of climate suitability. Locations such as Garmisch-
Partenkirchen (Germany), Vancouver (Canada) and Sochi (Russia) are projected to achieve
threshold in less than 75% of winters under the high-emission scenario and therefore are con-
sidered unreliable for hosting the outdoor sports programme of the OWG.
In the 2080s, the number of former host locations able to achieve this indicator ≥90%
of the time declines even further to between 9 (low-emission scenario) and 13 (high-emis-
sion scenario). Under the warmer high-emission scenario, three locations are projected
to achieve this threshold less than 50% of winters (Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany;
Vancouver, Canada and Sochi, Russia), while several others have a probability less than
75% (Innsbruck, Austria; Squaw Valley, USA; Chamonix, France; Grenoble, France;
Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Oslo, Norway).
 Current Issues in Tourism 11
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Figure 1. Probability of average daily minimum temperature in February ≤08C.

The most critical factor for snow-based competitions, such as alpine, nordic and free-
style skiing, is a sufficiently deep snow base. The minimum snow base for alpine skiing
is 30 centimetres, which is sufficient for smooth slopes on alpine meadows and track
setting for classic nordic skiing on smooth trails. For alpine slopes with rocky surfaces,
much greater snow depths of up to 1 metre are required for safe operations. This analysis

Figure 2. Probability of snow depth with snowmaking ≥30 centimetres on 1 February.

 12 D. Scott et al.

utilised an optimistic requirement of only 30 centimetre snow depth to account for slope/
trial grooming (smoothening) as a possible adaptation strategy. Figure 2 illustrates the prob-
ability that a snow depth of ≥30 centimetres, with advanced snowmaking capacity, could
be achieved at each of the 19 former host cities/regions. Similar to the first indicator, in the
baseline climate (1981– 2010), all locations achieved this operational threshold in 90% of
winters. Under projected climate change scenarios, some locations cannot guarantee a suf-
ficient snow depth despite advanced snowmaking, as temperatures become too warm to
produce enough snow. In the 2050s, three former host locations are projected to no
longer be able to produce a sufficient snow base by the beginning of February in ≥90%
of winters (Sochi, Russia; Squaw Valley, USA and Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany).
The number of locations that can no longer fulfil this indicator of climate suitability for
snow-based sports competitions remains the same under the low-emission scenario for
the 2080s, but increased substantially to 11 under the high-emission scenario. Each of
these 11 locations are projected to achieve this threshold of snow base in less than 75%
of winters under the high-emission scenario, and are therefore considered unreliable for
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hosting the outdoor sports programme of the OWG.

As previously noted, this analysis was conducted at the altitude of the finish line where
skiing events were previously held at each host location. A potential adaptation would be to
relocate competitions to higher altitudes, where this is physically feasible (i.e. ski slopes at

Figure 3. Probability of former host locations remaining climatically suitable for the OWG in the
2050s under climate change.
 Current Issues in Tourism 13

higher altitudes with a sufficient vertical drop for elite Olympic competitions). This adap-
tation was not considered here because the new elevation of the alpine slopes within an
acceptable distance to other games venues cannot be anticipated.
The two indicators were compared to assess the overall climatic suitability of past host
locations to reliably host future outdoor OWG competitions under changed climate con-
ditions. Figure 3 presents the probability that each of the 19 former host locations is projected
to achieve both indicators in the 2050s (Figure 3) and 2080s (Figure 4) under low- and high-
emission scenarios. Locations that were able to achieve both indicators in ≥90% of winters
and classified as climate reliable are found in the upper right shading in Figures 3 and 4. In the
baseline period (1981–2100), all former host locations were classified as climatically reliable
to host the outdoor competitions of the OWG. Despite some concerns about the climate
conditions at the recent host locations of Vancouver (Canada) and Sochi (Russia), both
were assessed to be climatically reliable using the indicators developed for this study,
supporting the IOC’s decision to award the games to these locations. A comparison of
Figures 3 and 4 reveals that the number of past host cities/regions falling outside of the
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reliable climate zone increases in both the 2050s and 2080s, particularly under higher emis-
sion scenarios. More locations become climatically marginal/higher risk in the 2050s because
of minimum daily temperatures exceeding 08C. The number of locations with one variable
being achieved in ,75% of winters (white area in Figures 3 and 4) are classified as not

Figure 4. Probability of former host locations remaining climatically suitable for the OWG in the
2080s under climate change.
 14 D. Scott et al.

Table 3. Climate suitability rating of host cities/regions for future OWG.

2050s 2080s
RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
Host city/region (low emission) (high emission) (low emission) (high emission)
Albertville (F) Reliable Reliable Reliable Reliable
Calgary (CDN) Reliable Reliable Reliable Reliable
Chamonix (F) Marginal–high Marginal –high Marginal –high Not reliable
risk risk risk
Cortina d’Ampezzo (I) Reliable Reliable Reliable Reliable
Garmisch-Partenkirchen Not reliable Not reliable Not reliable Not reliable
(GER)
Grenoble (F) Marginal–high Marginal –high Marginal –high Not reliable
risk risk risk
Innsbruck (A) Reliable Marginal –high Marginal –high Not reliable
risk risk
Lake Placid (USA) Reliable Reliable Reliable Marginal –high
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risk
Lillehammer (N) Reliable Reliable Reliable Marginal –high
risk
Nagano (J) Reliable Reliable Reliable Not reliable
Oslo (N) Marginal–high Marginal –high Marginal –high Not reliable
risk risk risk
Salt Lake City (USA) Reliable Reliable Reliable Reliable
Sapporo (J) Reliable Reliable Reliable Reliable
Sarajevo (BIH) Marginal–high Marginal –high Marginal –high Not reliable
risk risk risk
Sochi (RUS) Not reliable Not reliable Not reliable Not reliable
Squaw Valley (USA) Marginal–high Not reliable Not reliable Not reliable
risk
St. Moritz (CH) Reliable Reliable Reliable Reliable
Turin (I) Reliable Reliable Reliable Not reliable
Vancouver (CDN) Marginal–high Not reliable Not reliable Not reliable
risk

climatically reliable to host outdoor sports programme of the OWG, which visibly increases
in the higher emission scenario for the 2080s. This is because of the inability to produce suffi-
cient snow, even with advanced snowmaking.
Table 3 provides a summary of the climate suitability rating for each of the 19 former host
locations. In the baseline period (1981–2010), all locations were rated as climatically reliable.
In the 2050s, the number of climate reliable locations decreased to 11 in the low-emission
scenario and 10 in the high-emission scenario. The impact of projected climate change is
far greater in the late-twenty-first century, with the differential impact of the two GHG emis-
sion pathways particularly notable. In the low-emission scenarios for the 2080s, 10 of the
former host locations would still have reliable climate conditions. However, if the high-emis-
sion scenarios were realised, it is projected that less than one-third (six in total) of former host
locations would remain climatically suitable for the games. Interestingly, of the remaining
climate reliable locations under the highest emissions scenario, all global regions that have
previously hosted Olympics are represented (Western North America – Calgary, Canada
and Salt Lake City, USA; European Alps – St. Moritz, Switzerland, Cortina d’Ampezzo,
Italy and Albertville, France; East Asia – Sapporo, Japan).
 Current Issues in Tourism 15

Conclusion
The confluence of the 22nd OWG and the release of the final two reports of the 5th IPCC
Assessment in early 2014 provide an important opportunity to consider the long-term impli-
cations of global climate change for the world of sport and the collective cultural global
heritage symbolised by the Olympic Movement. It is evident from the results of this analy-
sis that the many climatic adaptations employed by recent OWG Organising Committees to
manage the risks of weather-related disruption of outdoor competitions begin to reach the
limits of effectiveness at some locations under projected climate change. The capacity of
snowmaking to ensure adequate snow conditions (even a highly optimistic 30 centimetre
snow base) for ski competitions is a particular source of climate change vulnerability for
future OWG. As a result, the findings indicate that projected climate change would
adversely impact the capacity of approximately half of the former OWG host cities/
regions to host the games by mid-century.
This finding suggests that the IOC choice of Vancouver and Sochi to host recent games
may prove very fortuitous, as the climatic capacity of these locations to host the games by
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mid-century is degraded, respectively becoming high risk and not reliable under even the
low-emission scenario. The differential vulnerability of former host cities/regions also
has implications for potential bids to host future OWG. For example, Munich, together
with sports venues at Garmisch-Partenkirchen, has considered a potential bid for the
2022 games, though this analysis indicates that Garmisch-Partenkirchen is not considered
to be climatically reliable by the 2050s. With the climatic capacity of this region to host the
OWG degraded by mid-century, climate change places greater impetus on a bid to host the
games over the next two decades.
Recognising that the format and technologies supporting winter sports in the later
decades of this century will clearly be different from today, they will nonetheless continue
to be founded on snow and ice as they have for the past 100 years. It is clear that the cultural
legacy of the world’s celebration of winter sport is at increased risk if the warmer climate
scenarios of the late-twenty-first century occur. With additional warming continuing in the
early-twenty-second century under a high-emission pathway, the number of former OWG
locations capable of hosting the games would continue to decline. In other words, in a sub-
stantially warmer world, celebrating the second centennial of the OWG in 2124 would
become increasingly challenging.
This analysis provides some initial insight into the implications of climate change for
the long-term future of the OWG, but raises several other research questions. With fewer
traditional winter sports regions climatically able to host OWG in a warmer world, will
the unifying cultural benefits be degraded? What are the broader implications for partici-
pation in winter sport and eventually participation by countries in the OWG? What other
regions of the world that have never hosted the OWG could replace the past host locations
that are anticipated to be no longer climatically suitable? Will new winter sports powers
and winter tourism regions develop in emerging markets? What are the long-term impli-
cations for the scale of the OWG as a mega-tourism and media event? Will the IOC need
to move away from recent decision to award the OWG to large/resort cities with nearby
mountainous areas capable of providing alpine skiing venues to more traditional, but
smaller, alpine cities? Are these smaller cities capable of once again hosting the OWG
given the tremendous growth in the number of athletes and spectators? Are there other
adaptation technologies that could overcome the climate change vulnerabilities identified
in this study? For example, could the development of truly artificial snow that is not temp-
erature dependent (as opposed to machine-made snow that physically responds to
 16 D. Scott et al.

temperature and solar radiation like natural snow) resolve the central remaining vulner-
ability of adequate snow for ski competitions?
The IOC has officially recognised the environment as the third integral dimension of
Olympism, alongside sport and culture. Since then, the OWG has shown leadership in
championing new technologies of the low-carbon economy, with no other major sporting
event being able to demonstrate carbon-neutrality for over a decade. This leadership
should be commended as it may foster other climate compatible mega-events and
tourism. Nonetheless, much more will be required of all nations if the goal of the inter-
national community is to limit the warming of global average temperatures to less than
+28C over pre-industrial times through a rapid transition to a low-carbon economy.

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