ABSTRACT

Rahmawati Nur Aini. 2016. Elementary Students Response in Solving Probability Problem in terms
of Mathematical Ability Differences. Thesis, Mathematics Education, Postgraduate, Surabaya State
University, Supervisor: (1)Prof. Dr. Dwi Juniati, M.Si., dan (2)Dr. Pradnyo Wijayanti, M.Pd.

The aim of this research described the respons of elementary students with high, middle, and low
academic level in probability problem. The response in question is an explanation in the decision to
determine the solution. The problem is a question to predict the probability of an outcome that
may occur which contain elements of uncertainty. This research is a qualitative descriptive study.
This study used three elementary fifth grade students as research subjects, each of which has a high
mathematical ability (S1), moderate (S2), and low (S3). Data collection techniques in this research
were the tests and interviews. The main instrument of this research was the researcher it self and
additional instrument was math test, probability problem, and interview guidance. The data analysis
was conducted by the steps, data reduction, categorization, data presentation, sintesasi, and
conclusion. Meanwhile, to get the valid research data, in this study used triangulation of time.
The results showed that, for S1, the sample space problems, the student provided an explanation for
the answer used subjective estimations and beliefs based on everyday experience, listed some space
samples, but not the whole story, including non-statistical response. On the issue of the probability of
an event, student used the estimation of chances, give reason quantitatively by comparing the
quantities of objects. On the issue of comparison of probabilities, student used the estimation of
chances, give reason quantitatively by comparing the quantities of objects on each and between
places, including statistical response. Representations used is verbal terms associated with a
probability as more frequent, sometimes, perhaps, at most, more, more often, less, equal, easier, and
most easily and used numerical.
For S2, the sample space problems, the student provided an explanation for the answer using
subjective estimations and beliefs based on everyday experience, listed some space samples, but not
the whole story, including non-statistical response. On the issue of the probability of an event, student
used a subjective estimation, that is the order of objects and believes that these objects are in the
arrangement. Student applied rules but incorrect sequence, including a partial statistical response. On
the issue of comparison of probabilities, student used the estimation of chances, give reason
quantitatively by comparing the quantities of objects on each and between places, including statistical
response. Represetations used is verbal terms related to the probability of such most frequently
occurring, perhaps, sometimes, the most convenient and easier, the same, less, and more and used
numerical.
For S3, the sample space problems, the student provided an explanation for the answer by using
subjective estimations and beliefs based on everyday experience, listed some space samples, but not
the whole story, early time student also have difficulty with the language, so repeated read the
questions to understand ,including non-statistical response. On the issue of the probability of an event,
student used the estimation of chances, give reason quantitatively by comparing the quantities of
objects, including statistical response. On the issue of comparison of probabilities, student used a
subjective estimation, reasoning quantitatively by comparing the quantities of objects between the
place but did not pay attention to the quantities of other objects, including non-statistical response.
Represetation used is verbal terms associated with occasional, more and most, fewer, and more easily
and used numerical.

Key word : response, the problem of probability, mathematical abilities.