TABLE 1: Sales for Carlson Department Store, September

1992 through August 1996 ($ Millions)

Month 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
January 1.45 2.31 2.31 2.56
February 1.80 1.89 1.99 2.28
March 2.03 2.02 2.42 2.69
April 1.99 2.23 2.45 2.48
May 2.32 2.39 2.57 2.73
June 2.20 2.14 2.42 2.37
July 2.13 2.27 2.40 2.31
August 2.43 2.21 2.50 2.23
September 1.71 1.90 1.89 2.09
October 1.90 2.13 2.29 2.54
November 2.74 2.56 2.83 2.97
December 4.20 4.16 4.04 4.35

TABLE 2: All Department Store Sales for the Country, September 1992
through August 1996 ($ Millions)
Month 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
January 46.8 46.8 43.8 48.0
February 48.0 48.6 45.6 51.6
March 60.0 59.4 57.6 57.6
April 57.6 58.2 53.4 58.2
May 61.8 60.6 56.4 60.0
June 58.2 55.2 52.8 57.0
July 56.4 51.0 54.0 57.6
August 63.0 58.8 60.6 61.8
September 55.8 57.6 49.8 47.4
October 56.4 53.4 54.6 54.6
November 71.4 71.4 65.4 67.8
December 117.6 114.0 102.0 100.2

(Actual Sales for All Departments during Hurricance)

1996
September 69.0
October 75.0
November 85.2
December 121.8
 Carlson Department Stores

t dt 12mma cma sv si ds
1992 September 1 1.71 0.80 2.14
October 2 1.90 0.94 2.03
November 3 2.74 1.12 2.45
December 4 4.20 1.68 2.50
1993 January 5 1.45 0.96 1.51
February 6 1.80 0.82 2.20
March 7 2.03 2.24 2.25 0.90 0.91 2.24
April 8 1.99 2.26 2.27 0.88 0.93 2.14
May 9 2.32 2.28 2.27 1.02 1.01 2.29
June 10 2.20 2.26 2.26 0.97 0.94 2.35
July 11 2.13 2.26 2.29 0.93 0.94 2.27
August 12 2.43 2.33 2.33 1.04 0.98 2.49
September 13 1.90 2.34 2.34 0.81 0.80 2.38
October 14 2.13 2.34 2.35 0.91 0.94 2.28
November 15 2.56 2.36 2.36 1.08 1.12 2.29
December 16 4.16 2.36 2.36 1.76 1.68 2.48
1994 January 17 2.31 2.36 2.36 0.98 0.96 2.41
February 18 1.89 2.37 2.36 0.80 0.82 2.30
March 19 2.02 2.35 2.35 0.86 0.91 2.23
April 20 2.23 2.35 2.36 0.95 0.93 2.40
May 21 2.39 2.36 2.37 1.01 1.01 2.36
June 22 2.14 2.39 2.38 0.90 0.94 2.28
July 23 2.27 2.38 2.38 0.96 0.94 2.42
August 24 2.21 2.38 2.38 0.93 0.98 2.27
September 25 1.89 2.38 2.40 0.79 0.80 2.37
 October 26 2.29 2.42 2.43 0.94 0.94 2.45
November 27 2.83 2.44 2.44 1.16 1.12 2.53
December 28 4.04 2.45 2.46 1.64 1.68 2.41
1995 January 29 2.31 2.47 2.48 0.93 0.96 2.41
February 30 1.99 2.49 2.50 0.80 0.82 2.43
March 31 2.42 2.51 2.52 0.96 0.91 2.67
April 32 2.45 2.53 2.54 0.97 0.93 2.63
May 33 2.57 2.55 2.55 1.01 1.01 2.54
June 34 2.42 2.56 2.57 0.94 0.94 2.58
July 35 2.40 2.58 2.59 0.93 0.94 2.56
August 36 2.50 2.61 2.62 0.96 0.98 2.56
September 37 2.09 2.63 2.64 0.79 0.80 2.62
October 38 2.54 2.65 2.65 0.96 0.94 2.71
November 39 2.97 2.65 2.66 1.12 1.12 2.65
December 40 4.35 2.67 2.67 1.63 1.68 2.59
1996 January 41 2.56 2.66 2.66 0.96 0.96 2.67
February 42 2.28 2.66 2.64 0.86 0.82 2.78
March 43 2.69 2.63 0.91 2.96
April 44 2.48 0.93 2.67
May 45 2.73 1.01 2.70
June 46 2.37 0.94 2.53
July 47 2.31 0.94 2.47
August 48 2.23 0.98 2.29
Assuming No Hurricane Trend Forecast
1996 September 49 2.71 2.16 dt Sales
October 50 2.72 2.54 12mma 12 monthly moving average
November 51 2.73 3.06 cma centered moving average
December 52 2.74 4.60 sv seasonal value
 si seasonal index
Given Hurricane ds deseasonalized sales
Forecast Lift Actual
1996 September 2.16 1.37 2.95
October 2.54 1.41 3.59
November 3.06 1.28 3.90
December 4.60 1.18 5.43
Lost Sales 15.86
 All Department Stores

t dt 12mma cma sv si ds
1992 September 1 55.8 0.86 64.87
October 2 56.4 0.91 62.23
November 3 71.4 1.14 62.68
December 4 117.6 1.76 66.78
1993 January 5 46.8 0.77 60.59
February 6 48.0 0.81 59.09
March 7 60.0 62.75 62.83 0.96 0.97 61.54
April 8 57.6 62.90 62.78 0.92 0.93 61.69
May 9 61.8 62.65 62.65 0.99 0.99 62.57
June 10 58.2 62.65 62.50 0.93 0.92 63.09
July 11 56.4 62.35 62.35 0.90 0.90 62.70
August 12 63.0 62.35 62.38 1.01 1.02 62.04
September 13 57.6 62.40 62.38 0.92 0.86 66.97
October 14 53.4 62.35 62.38 0.86 0.91 58.92
November 15 71.4 62.40 62.35 1.15 1.14 62.68
December 16 114.0 62.30 62.18 1.83 1.76 64.73
1994 January 17 46.8 62.05 61.83 0.76 0.77 60.59
February 18 48.6 61.60 61.43 0.79 0.81 59.83
March 19 59.4 61.25 60.93 0.97 0.97 60.93
April 20 58.2 60.60 60.65 0.96 0.93 62.33
May 21 60.6 60.70 60.45 1.00 0.99 61.36
June 22 55.2 60.20 59.70 0.92 0.92 59.84
July 23 51.0 59.20 59.08 0.86 0.90 56.70
August 24 58.8 58.95 58.83 1.00 1.02 57.90
September 25 49.8 58.70 58.63 0.85 0.86 57.90
October 26 54.6 58.55 58.35 0.94 0.91 60.25
November 27 65.4 58.15 57.98 1.13 1.14 57.41
December 28 102.0 57.80 57.70 1.77 1.76 57.92
1995 January 29 43.8 57.60 57.73 0.76 0.77 56.71
February 30 45.6 57.85 57.93 0.79 0.81 56.13
March 31 57.6 58.00 57.90 0.99 0.97 59.08
April 32 53.4 57.80 57.80 0.92 0.93 57.19
May 33 56.4 57.80 57.90 0.97 0.99 57.10
June 34 52.8 58.00 57.93 0.91 0.92 57.24
July 35 54.0 57.85 58.03 0.93 0.90 60.03
August 36 60.6 58.20 58.45 1.04 1.02 59.68
September 37 47.4 58.70 58.70 0.81 0.86 55.11
October 38 54.6 58.70 58.90 0.93 0.91 60.25
November 39 67.8 59.10 59.25 1.14 1.14 59.52
December 40 100.2 59.40 59.58 1.68 1.76 56.90
1996 January 41 48.0 59.75 59.90 0.80 0.77 62.15
February 42 51.6 60.05 60.10 0.86 0.81 63.52
March 43 57.6 60.15 0.97 59.08
 April 44 58.2 0.93 62.33
May 45 60.0 0.99 60.75
June 46 57.0 0.92 61.79
July 47 57.6 0.90 64.04
August 48 61.8 1.02 60.86
Assuming No Hurricane Trend Forecast
1996 September 49 58.77 50.55
October 50 58.70 53.20
November 51 58.62 66.78
December 52 58.55 103.11

Given Hurricane
Forecast Actual Lift
1996 September 50.55 69.0 1.37
October 53.20 75.0 1.41
November 66.78 85.2 1.28
December 103.11 121.8 1.18

Lift Factor= Actual Sales/Forecast Sales