American Geographical Society

Empirical Mathematical Rules concerning the Distribution and Equilibrium of Population

Author(s): John Q. Stewart
Source: Geographical Review, Vol. 37, No. 3 (Jul., 1947), pp. 461-485
Published by: American Geographical Society
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/211132 .
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 EMPIRICAL MATHEMATICAL RULES CONCERNING
THE DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM
OF POPULATION*

JOHN Q. STEWART

rftlHERE was a time when scholarsdid not realizethat number had the
principal role in the description of the phenomena of physics. The
transition from medieval to modern science was made in celestial
mechanics, in three stages. These can be concisely representedby Tycho
Brahe's extensive observations of planetary motions, Kepler's faith in
mathematicsas a means of insight into phenomena,and Newton's progress
from Kepler'sempiricalrules for the solar system to the mechanicsof the
entire universe.
We are now seeing a similardevelopmentin the social studies.Astonish-
ing amounts of significantnumericaldata have been accumulatedby con-
scientioussocial statisticians.Publicationsof the Bureau of the Census, for
example, are comparablein extent and variety with cataloguesof starsor
tables of spectroscopicwave lengths, even if the numericalprecisionneces-
sarily is much less. Thus the observationalstage is well advanced. A few
investigatorswhose trainingis not confined to the social fieldsare beginning
to proceed with the condensationof the voluminous sociological data into
concisemathematicalrules.The finalrationalinterpretationof suchempirical
rulescannot come until after the rules themselvesare established.
The way of progress is obstructed by the opinion, common among
authoritieson economics, politics, and sociology, that human relationships
never will be describedin mathematicalterms. There may be some truth in
this as regardsthe doings of individualpersons.Even the physicisthas given
up the idea that the behaviorof individualparticlescan be preciselydescribed
thus and necessarilycontents himself with discussionsof averages.But the
time to emphasizeindividual deviations is after the general averageshave
been established,not before.
Demography, the study of populations, offers an especially favorable
field for the study of averagesof social behavior. This paper presentsfour
empirical rules relating to populations and their mutual influences. Two
of these have been stated by the writer previously, the third has been pub-
*Thanks must be expressedto Dr. Kingsley Davis for tabulationsof data from censusesof India
and to Dr. Irene B. Taeuber for data on Japan, to the Princeton University Observatory,and to the
Institutefor Advanced Study and Miss CatherineKennelly.

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462 THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW

lishedby others;new supportingevidenceand developmentof thesethree

aregiven,anda fourthruleis presentedfor the firsttime.
THE RANK-SIZE RULE FOR CITIES

ProfessorGeorge Kingsley Zipf of Harvard University describedwith

much emphasisin a book publishedhalf a dozen years ago' the rank-size
rule for cities. The original statementwas by Auerbach,2but Zipf gave it
far more attention.The rule appliesto certaingroups of cities and is
RSR = M. (I)
Here M and n are constantsfor the given group, SRstandsfor the numberof
people who live in the Rth city in the group, and R is the rank in the group
of that city. The rankis a city's ordernumberin a list that runsconsecutively
from the largestcity in the given group to the smallestone. Thus for cities
of the United Statesin 1940 we have the following ranks,R: New York, I;
Chicago, 2; Philadelphia, 3; .....; Utica, 92; .....; Sharon, Pa., 401;
and so on. There were 3464 citiesand towns greaterin size than 2500; smaller
villages are classedby the United Statescensusas "rural."
The rank so defined is necessarilya positive integer. When R is I, equa-
tion I, whateverthe value of n, requiresthat S is then M; hence the constant
M is equalto the size of the largestcity in the group. However, sincethe rule
holds only to a statisticalapproximationand is not rigorous,a betteraverage
fit in practicemay be obtainedby an adjustmentof M to a value that is not
exactly equal to the size of the largest city. The value of 8,660,ooo in 1940
fitted the average run of United States city sizes better than New York's
actual size of 7,454,995.
Throughout this paper we must guard, on the one hand, against giving
the impressionthat any one of the empiricalrules presentedis at all exact
and, on the other, against suggesting that the approximationsare so rough
as to be without profound interestand meaning. If we divide 8,660,ooo by
401, the populationindicatedfor Sharon,Pa., comes out 21,600, as compared
with its actual25,622. As anotherillustration,the populationof Indianapolis
was 386,972, which, divided into 8,660,ooo,would correspondto a rank of
22, whereas the actual rank of Indianapolis in 1940 was 20.
If there are C cities of sizes not less than a certainlower limit, Sc-the
size of the city of rank C being Sc-equation I requires:
CSc =M S1, (2)
' G. K.
Zipf: National Unity and Disunity, Bloomington, Ind., I941.
2
Felix Auerbach: Das Gesetz der Bevolkerungskonzentration,PetermannsMitt., Vol. 59, I913,
pp. 74-76. See also A. J. Lotka: Elementsof PhysicalBiology, Baltimore, I924, pp. 306-307; the same:
The Law of Urban Concentration,Science,Vol. 94 (N.S.), 1941, p. 164.

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 463
the size of the largest city being Si or M. In 1940 there were 3464 cities
largerthan 2500 population; the product of 3464 x 2500 is the 8,660,ooo already
mentioned as the adjustedvalue of M in I940.
It is obvious that, when we assigna numericalvalue to any S, a difficulty
which will often arise is that the usual census figure is for the "political"
city, whose people live within the somewhat arbitrary"city limits."3The
"physical"city, a single urban concentrationthat presumablyfunctions as
a single whole, may be considerablylarger than the political city. This is
not a fundamentaldifficulty,but one of refinementmerely; it is worth special
study, which can be postponed.
If an arbitrarygroup of cities is selected-for example, the largest city
in one state, the second largest in another,and so on-equation I will not
be found to hold. It does not hold for the cities of GreatBritain,unlessthey
are consideredwith all other Europeancities. But it is a fact that when all
the cities in the United States larger than 2500 (or than some lower limit
greater than 2500) are examined in any one of the I6 censuses I790-I940,
equation I holds approximately,and always with n equal to I, or nearly
I. For each census,M, as expressed in equation 2 with n I, is found to
approximatethe size of New York City at that census.4Since the number of
cities above 2500 increased from 24 in 1790 to 3464 in 1940, this is a very
large range of agreement.It at once establishesthe rank-sizerule as an im-
portantempiricalrelation,with the presumptionthat it is the resultof major
underlying demographic tendencies.
Readerswhose training has been verbal rather than mathematicalmay
be impatientto be told at once what the underlyingreasonsare for the rank-
size rule and what applicationsit has to immediately practicalproblems.
These are reasonableinquiries, but their answers can only come in due
course, and such readerswill be blind to the lessons of physical science if
they lose patienceand interestwhen it is confessedthat full answerscannot
yet be provided.
The total population of a number of cities of consecutive ranks has a
formula easily derivedfrom the rank-sizerule. The value of n in (I) may be
between o and I, I, or more than I. Since by definition the largest city has
rank i, it is clearthat n must not be negative. Three excellentapproximations
to the exact sum can be written for these three cases.
Let Pu stand for the total population of the largest R cities. Evidently,
3J. K. Wright: Certain Changes in Population Distribution in the United States,
Geogr.Rev.,
Vol. 31, I94I, pp. 488-490.
4 As tabulatedin Sixteenth Census of the United States,
1940: Population, Vol. i, Number of
Inhabitants,Table 12 (pp. 32-33), which totals the people who lived in what now are the five boroughs.

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464 THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW

since the city of rank I is expected to have size M, that of rank2 has the size
M/2n, that of rank 3, M/3", and so on, if the rank-sizerule holds. Hence
P-=M (I + I/2n+ I/3 + ... + I /Rn). (3)
For a given value of n, the seriesin the parenthesescan always be summed
by direct computation;but when R is in the hundredsor thousands,that is
extremely laborious. When R is not too small, direct summation is un-
necessary,becausethe following approximateformulascan be established:
When n is between o and I:
= M(Rl- Kn (4)
I
When n is I:
P,=M(loge R+ +KI). (5)

When n exceeds I:
Pu =M (
PU=M( .( (n-I)Rn-
+ Kn)*
-n) (6)
(6)
-2R

In each case Knis a specialconstant:its value depends only on n and not on

R. The term I/2R" becomes unimportantas R increases.The seriesin the
parenthesesof (3) has received much study from mathematicians.Equations
4, 5, and 6 are simplificationsof an exact formula, which has the form
of an infinite seriesin descendingterms ofR.5
In orderto use these equationsfor total urbanpopulations,it is necessary
to have the proper numericalvalues of Kn. These are tabulatedin Table I,
for a practicalrange of values ofn.
We see that P~, the sum of the populations of the R largest cities, is
determinedas a function of the size, SR, of the Rth city, providedn is known.
Note that when n exceeds i, P, approachesa finite limit, namely MK,, as
R gets larger and larger. When n is I or less, P, grows without limit as R
increases-provided the rank-sizerule holds all the way.
The best determinationfrom census data of M and n for a particular
group of cities is made by the well-known statisticalmethod of "least
squares."This is time-consuming,and for the purposesof the presentsurvey
adequate solutions have been obtained by trial and error, or by graphing.
When logarithmsare taken, (I) becomes
log SR = log M- n log R.
Consequently, when values of SR are plotted to a logarithmic scale as
ordinates,againstcorrespondingvalues of R as abscissas,for an actual group
s See J. W. L. Glaisher:The ConstantsThat Occur in Certain Summationsby Bernoulli'sSeries,
Proc. London Math. Soc., Vol. 4, 1871, pp. 48-56.

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 465
of citiesapproximately obeyingthe rank-sizerule,the plottedpointsscatter
somewhatbut nevertheless linethatslopesdownwardfrom
definea straight
left to right.Its negativeslopeis n, and its intersectionwith the axis of S
whenR is I fixeslog M.
I-VALUESOFKn (EQUATIONS
TABLE 4, 5, 6)

n KKn Kn n Kn
O.I -0.60 1/4 -o.8i 10/9 +9.58
0.2 -0.73 I/3 -0.97 9/8 +8.59
0.3 -0.90 I/2 -I.46 8/7 +7.59
0.4 -I.I4 2/3 -2.45 7/6 +6.59
0.5 -1.46 5/7 -2.95 6/5 +5.59
0.6 -1.96 3/4 -3-45 5/4 +4.60
0.7 -2.78 10/13 -3.78 4/3 +3.60
0.8 -4-44 4/5 -4-44 3/2 +2.61
0.9 -9.42 5/6 -5.44 7/4 +1.96
1.o +0.58 6/7 -6.43 2 +1.64

NOTE.-Values not listed by Glaisher (loc. cit.) were computed by applying the Euler-
Maclaurinformula (cf. E. T. Whittakerand G. Robinson:The Calculusof Observations,
London I924, p. 138). The variation of Kn with n, except near n = i, is regularand
smooth, and can be interpolated graphically between the above values. For n = 3,
Kn = +I.20.

TablesII and IIIpresentobservational confirmationof the applicability

of the rule
rank-size and its for
corollaries citiesof the UnitedStatesover a
periodof manycensuses,andfor the6o0citiesof theworldthatin the I930's
werelistedaslargerthanIoo,ooo. Therespectivevaluesof n arei andIO/I3,
but least-squaresolutionswould show some tolerancein eachestimate.
UnitedStatescensusdataarenot completefor the villages.These,unless
incorporated,are lumpedindistinguishably with their farm neighborsin
eachminorcivildivision.Thereforeit is not possibleto give the lowerlimit
of size,abovewhichthe rank-sizeruleholds.If it held down to individual
persons,the rankof the "finalcommunity"of one personalwayswould be
M; compareequation2. If we ignorethe difficultyof havingcommunities
comprisedof whole people plus a fractionalperson,equation5 would
requirethatthepopulationof all theM communities-i.e. the totalpopula-
tion of the United States-shouldbe
PT = M (logeM+ 0.58). (7)
In each censusbefore 1930 substitutionof the observedvalue of M gives too
smalla value of the total population-much too small in earlierdays. There-
fore equation 7 is inapplicable.This matter has been discussedby Zipf, in
his second chapter,in a speculativeway.
When in (7) the value ScC is substitutedfor M, and Sc is taken as 2500

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 TABLEII-THE INVARIANT
POPULATION
PATTERNOF THE UNITED STATES

C = number of cities of sizes >2500 (C)= I +1/2 +I/3 +1/4+. . logs C= In C + o.58
U = urbanfraction= PU/PT M = populationof largestcity = 2500 C
PU = urban population, which the censusreportsas the sum of the populationsof the cities
PT = fotal population PR = ruralpopulation (towns <2500 and country districts)
Computed values Observedvalues
Census C f(C) U log M log Pu log PR log PT U log M log Pu log PR log PT
1790 24 3.76 4.8 4.78 5.35 6.65 6.67 5.I 4.69 5.36 6.57 6.59
I8oo 33 4-07 5.6 4.92 5.53 6.75 6.78 6. 4.90 5.5I 6.70 6.72
I8Io 46 4.4I 6.6 5.o6 5.7I 6.85 6.88 7-3 5.o8 5.72 6.83 6.86
1820 6I 4.69 7.6 5.I8 5.85 6.95 6.97 7.2 5.18 5.84 6.95 6.98
I830 90 5.o8 9-3 5.35 6.o6 7-05 7.09 8.8 5.38 6.05 7-07 7.II
1840 I3I 5-45 II.2 5.52 6.25 7.15 7.20 i0.8 5.59 6.27 7.-8 7.23
I85o 236 6.04 I5.0 5.77 6.55 7.3I 7.38 I5.3 5.85 6.55 7-29 7-37
i860 392 6.55 I9.4 5.99 6.8I 7.43 7.52 I9.8 6.07 6.79 7.40 7-50
I870 663 7.07 25.2 6.22 7.07 7.54 7.67 25.7 6.17 7.00 7.46 7.59
I88o 939 7.42 30.0 6.37 7.24 7.6I 7-77 28.2 6.28 7.I5 7.56 7-70
I890 1348 7.78 35.9 6.53 7.42 7.67 7.86 35.1 6.40 7.34 7.6I 7.80
I900 1737 8.04 40.8 6.64 7.54 7-7I 7.93 39-7 6.54 7.48 7.66 7.88

I9Io 2262 8.30 46.5 6.75 7.67 7-73 8.oi 45.7 6.68 7.62 7-70 7.96
I920 2732 8.49 5I.I 6.84 7.76 7.75 8.o6 51.2 6.75 7-73 7.7I 8.03
I930 3165 8.65 55-0 6.90 7.84 7.75 8.Io 56.2 6.84 7.84 7-73 8.09
I940 3464 8.73 57.6 6.94 7.88 7.75 8.I2 56.5 6.87 7.87 7.76 8.I2

TABLEIIIA-LEADING CITIESOP THE WORLD TABLEIIIB-THE WORLD'S LARGEST

CITIES

Rank Size log M Rank Size log M Rank City Computed size Actual size
R S R S R S

I 8,655,000 .... 52 790,398 7.218 I London I4,900,000 8,655,000

66 7.221 2 New York 8,7I0,000 7,I54,300
2 7,I54,300 7.168 662,000
3 Tokyo 6,380,000 5,875,667
3 5,875,667 7.I36 83 570,622 7.233
4 Berlin 5,120,000 4,25 ,0oo
4 4,25I,ooo 7.091 I04 489,488 7.241
5 Moscow 4,3Io,ooo000 3,64I,500
5 3,64I,500 7.099 I30 386,900 7.2I3 6 Chicago 3,750,000 3,397,700
7 3,489,998 7.I93 I63 3Io,II8 7.I93 7 3,330,000 3,490,000
Shanghai
10 2,739,800 7.207 204 261,226 7.I93 8 Osaka 3,OI0,000 2,990,000
I2 I,972,700 7.I25 257 2II,000 7-I77 9 Paris 2,740,000 2,830,000
1S I,666,Ioo 7.I26 323 173,573 7.167 Io Leningrad 2,530,000 2,740,000
I8 I,354,100 7,097 406 I40,500 7.I55
22 I,257,890 7.I3I 5Io 116,687 7.228 48 St. Louis 747,000 830,000
27 1,I48,I29 7.160 6oi I00,000 7.I37
I25 KansasCity, Mo. 339,600 4I2,600
34 I,029,700 7.I89
42 9Io,154 7.207 Average 7.I72
473 Trenton, N.J. I30,000 I24,000
NOTE.-A card index of all 6o0 cities was prepared, each card NOTE.-From the formula S = MIR0?769, with M = 4,860,000,
being marked with the size and corresponding rank of a city. In values of S are computed for the first ten ranks and certain others.
this illustrative table examples are chosen at random scattered over London does not fit the formula. But for New York to move
the whole range of ranks. In the third column values of log M into rank i would require an increase of 75 % not only in its size
are computed from the assumed formula M = R0O769S. These but in the size of other American cities, since these are subject also
of course scatter somewhat about their average, 7.172-which to their own rank-size rule with exponent I. The sum of the com-
corresponds to M = 4,860,000. London is not nearly big enough puted populations of the nine cities of ranks 2-Io inclusive is
to fill rank i. (The size of New York is from the same compilation 39,880,000. This compares well with the sum from equation 4,
as the others and is less than in the 1940 census.) with n = 0.769, and Kn = -3.78; namely 39,800,000.

466

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 467

(therurallimit),we obtain,if we writePufor the populationof the cities-

the totalurbanpopulation-
PT = Pu + M loge 2500.
This equation,also, does not apply;the observedrelationbetweenurban,
rural,andtotalpopulationsis givenin (9) and (io) below.
Applicabilityof the rank-sizerule is not confinedto city sizes.With
n= I/2 it is Pareto'srule for the sizeof incomes.6Condon found thatthe rule,
with n = i, describedthe frequencyof occurrenceof words in written
English,7and Zipf has foundthatthe rulehasfurtherapplicability
to other
word counts.8Yule'sobjection9to it has no immediaterelevance.LotkaI0
found that the rule, with n = 2, describedthe distributionof scientificpapers
amongdifferentauthors.
In physics,the Boltzmanndistribution of energiesamongthe molecules
of a gasin thermodynamic equilibrium offers a generalanalogy,but only a
generalone. It seemsthatthe rank-sizeruleis one whichoccurs,or at any
rateis closelyapproximated,in a differenttype of equilibriumamongcom-
peting elements,which has not yet been in
recognized physics,thoughit
occursin the above-mentioned widely differentsociologicalcases.
A consideration of what factorsproducethe hypotheticalequilibrium
will be aidedby a comparisonof demographicand socialconditionsthat
areexpressedin differentvaluesof the exponentn. CensusesofJapanI920-
1935 indicate a country in transition,because n increasedfrom about 2/3
to I for shi above 20,000. This contrastswith the stability of n over I5o
yearsin the UnitedStates.Sufficientcensusdataareavailablealsofor India
I89I-I94I. The rank-sizerule therefor citiesabove 5ooo populationhas
n = 5/7 approximately, duringthisentireperiod.
The authoris not familiarwith any studywhich relatesthe rank-size
rule or the potentialof populationto existingstudiesdealingwith the
locationof cities"andwith the degreeof concentration
of communities.'2
6
Zipf, op. cit., Chap. 5.
7 E. U. Condon: Statisticsof Vocabulary, Science,Vol. 67 (N.S.), 1928, p. 300.
8 See list of referencesin G. K.
Zipf: The Repetition of Words: Time, Perspective,and Semantic
Balance, Journ. of General Psychology, Vol. 32, 1945, pp. 127-148.
9 G. U. Yule: The StatisticalStudy of LiteraryVocabulary, Cambridge, England, 1944, p. 55.
10A. Lotka: The
J. FrequencyDistribution of Scientific Productivity,Journ. WashingtonAcad. of
Sci., Vol. I6, 1926, pp. 317-323. This paper includes additional interesting references.
" See, for example, Edward Ullman: A Theory of Location for Cities, Amer.
Journ.of Sociology,
Vol. 46, 1940-1941, pp. 853-864, which discussesWalter Christaller'sfactor of centrality. See also E.
M. Hoover, Jr.: Location Theory and the Shoe and LeatherIndustries,Harvard Univ. Press, 1937;
Chaps. I-6; the same: The Location of Economic Activity (In preparation).
12Referencesto the work of Albert Demangeon and othersare includedin the note "The
Geography
of Rural Settlements," Geogr. Rev., Vol. 24, I934, pp. 502-504.

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468 THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW

THE RELATION OF THE NUMBER OF UNITED STATES CITIES

AND THE URBAN FRACTION

We passnow to a hithertounpublishedempiricalrelation,which is
well establishedonly for one specialcase.At presentwritingthisnew rule
is farfromhavingthe varietyof observational thatthe rank-size
significance
rule possesses.As has been said,the United StatesBureauof the Census
definesa villageas "rural"whenit hasfewerthan2500people;andof course
TABLE IV-RELATION OF URBAN FRACTION TO NUMBER OF CITIES, UNITED STATES

Urban fraction
Number of U
Year Cities Observed Computed log C
C I0450U2
i790 24 0.05I 0.048 -o.055
I8oo 33 .o6i .056 - .070
i8io 46 .073 .066 - .082
I820 6i .072 .076 + .050
1830 90 .088 .093 + .045
1840 131 .Io8 .112 + .032
I85o 236 .153 .I50 - .oi6
i860 392 .198 .194 - .020
1870 663 .257 .252 - .017
i88o 939 .282 .300 + .054
I890 1348 -35I .359 + .017
1900 1737 .397 .408 + .023
9Igo 2262 .457 .465 + .034
1920 2732 .512 .511 + .005
1930 3165 .562 .550 - .019
1940 3464 .565 .576 + .017

NOTE.-Valuesof U usuallyare statedin percentages:thuso.o5I correspondsto 5.1%,etc. The lastcolumn

shows the close agreementof the formula (io) with the facts.The statistical"probableerror"in the loga-
rithm (base io) is ?0.0277, correspondingto a factor of 1.066.

dwellers in the open country are classed as rural. People who live in all
largertowns are "urban."This distinctionis made in each of the I6 censuses.
As everyone knows, the proportion of city dwellers has been consistently
increasingin the United States.The number of cities above 2500, which we
shall call C, likewise has increasedconsiderably.
The urbanfraction, U, is defined as the fractionof the total population,
PT, that lives in cities above 2500. Thus
PU = UPT, (8)
PU being the total urbanpopulationof the C cities. Letting PR standfor the
rural population, we have
PR = PT- PU. (9)

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 469
Table IV shows that the relations
C = 0450 U2, (Io)
U = 0.009782/C, (II)
hold very well, from census to census, I790-I940.
If the rank-sizerule representsan equilibriumamong competing cities,
this relationof U to C must mean that there is also an equilibriumbetween
the competing attractionsof ruraland urbanlife.
Values of U are also availablefor India, but the range of change in the

POPULA /O/N FIG.I-Structure of the population

of the United States (See Table II).
o00, o, o000o PT / Observed values at the 16 censusesare
Zj _ _indicated by the crosses and dots;
RR;^ r?/ curvesor straightlines show the values
- *^~ )^g \/computed from the observed number
~ ~
.^^^ ^\ - y\ -of cities, C, of size largerthan 2500, as
J0,000,000 base variable, by equations 12. Up to
~- -S /^ /^~ \~ ~- C = Io,450 the extrapolated curves
-_ ~vX rr~
//~- likewise
- follow these equations. Any
/_ , -_ one of five quantities- total popula-

7,000,000 _______ ___y

tion, PT, urban population, PU, rural
M~A-/ _ population, PR, population of largest
Pu / city, M, and number of cities, C, -
-4"~~~ >~~/*~ - could be taken as the singleindependent
~~~~~~~~~~~- - variable.Additional computed curves,
oo00,000 - and compatible observations,could be
~~~~~~~~~~- given for selected groups of cities;
i for example, the number and summed
I| f[ jI~ l
GEOGR.REVIEW, 25 JOO 4o0 600o 6400 populations of those between sizes
JULY, 1947 C/ITES OVER 2500 POPULAT/OAV IO,000 and 25,000.

availablecensusesis too small to establishequally well relationscorrespond-

ing to (io) and (11). The evidence is that the exponent of U in the relation
correspondingto (IO) for India is reducedperhapsto 12/7.
THE FUNDAMENTAL STRUCTURE OF UNITED STATES POPULATION

Figure I shows how well the simple equations we have developed

describe the rural-urbandistribution in every United States census. It
graphsdata of Table II, with extrapolationsto the future. The continuous
curves representcomputed values of the various components of popula-
tions; the x's, crosses, or circles represent the actual populations, census
by census. The number, C, of cities larger than 2500 is taken as the base
variable. In terms of it the following quantitiesare computed: S1 or M,
the size of the largest city (New York, people living in the present five
boroughs); Pu, the total urban population of the C cities; PT, the total
United Statespopulation;and PR, the ruralpopulation.

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 470 THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW

The applicableequationsarebroughttogetherherefor clarity(cf equa-

tions 2, 5, II, 8, 9). We take n = I, for the United States, and Sc = 2500:
M = SCC;

Pu = Sc C (loge C + -2 + 0.577);

U =o.oo009782\IC; (I2)

PT = P /U;
PR = PT- Pu.

Note that Figure I has no intrinsic time scale, but only the empirical
time scale that successivecensusesestablish,through the observed values of
C from decade to decade. A predictionof future total populationwas made
by Pearl,I3 but he did not break down the populationinto ruraland urban
components.
Demographers are now making predictions of populations by extra-
polating the birth rate and death rate. The latest such prediction for the
United States'4gave estimatesof the total population,PT, for various years
until 2000. If we assume that the equilibrium equations (12) of Figure I
will continue to hold, these values of PT establishthe correspondingvalues
of C, M, Pu, PR.
Since the equations indicate that PR has already reached its maximum
value, the expected increasein PT all goes to an increasein Pu. Briefly, one
can say that the outlook is for an increasein urbanpopulation for the next
20 or 25 yearsat the rate of I per cent a year of the presenturbanpopulation.
The same prediction applies to every United States city, large or small,
that holds its present rank among our cities. Of course, some will make
relative gains, others will lose rank.
Figure I in itself does not mean that the populationwill increaserather
than decrease.However, if PT ever becomes 260,000,000, the indication is
that the rural population will have disappeared-except, doubtless, for a
stubborn remnant that has not yet made its resistanceevident in the data.
If that time ever comes, all the people will be living in I0,400 cities greater
than 2500, and the largest city (still New York?) will have a population of
26,000,000.
If populationsshould still go on increasingafterthat highly problematical
time, an extrapolationof the above treatmentsuggeststhat the larger cities
I3 Raymond Pearl: Introductionto Medical Biometry and Statistics,3rd edit., Philadelphia,I940,
Chap. I8.
I4 U. S. Bureau of the Census,Population-Special Reports, Ser. P-46, No. 7, SeptemberIj, 1946.

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 47I

wouldthenbeginto eatup the smallerones,andthatfinallyeveryonewould

live in a single greatH. G. Wells city. Its populationwhen that epoch begins
works out as 61 billions-but these extreme extrapolationshad better be
regardedasjust a little fun with arithmetic.15
THE POTENTIAL OF POPULATION

The evident tendency of people to congregatein largerand larger cities

representsan attractionof people for people that turnsout to have a mathe-
maticalas well as a merely verbal resemblanceto Newton's law of gravita-
tion. Lagrangein 1773 found that where the attractionof severalplanetsat
once was under consideration,a new mathematicalcoefficient,not used by
Newton, simplifiedthe calculations.This coefficientamountedto a measure
of the gravitationalinfluenceof a planet of massm at a distanced, and it was
as simple as possible, merely m/d.
Later mathematicalphysicists, Laplace and Poisson, further elaborated
the m/d concept in celestialmechanics.Not until 1828 did Green find that
similar measuresexisted of the influence of an electric charge, e, and of a
magnet pole, p, at a distanced; namely e/d and p/d respectively.To these
quantities the name "potentials" was given-the gravitational potential,
the electrostaticpotential, the magnetic potential.
In 1939 evidence was uncovered which suggested that the influence of
people at a distancecould be expressedby a similarcoefficient,namely N/d
-N being the number of people, and d their distance away.'6 For this
coefficient the name "potential of population" was at once suggested,
becauseof the physicalanalogies.
As examplesof "influence"referencemay be made to:17 (I) the drawing
power of a college or school on given communitiesor states (enrollmentin
seasoned,privatelyendowed, "national"institutionstends to be proportion-
ate to the populationof a statedivided by its distancefrom the campus); (2)
attendanceat the New York World's Fair in I940 by states (proportionate
to the population of a state divided by its distance from Flushing, Long
I5 The last time the author used in
print the expression "fun with arithmetic" was in connection
with extravagant illustrations of the enormous size of the constitutional energy of matter-illustrations
that have been widely reproduced since August 6, 1945, in popular explanations of nuclear fission (The
Search for the Source of Stellar Energy, Journ. Franklin Inst., Vol. 204, 1927, p. 464).
I6 T. Q. Stewart: The Gravity of the Princeton
Family, Princeton Alumni Weekly, Vol. 40, 1940,
pp. 409-4I0; idem: An Inverse Distance Variation for Certain Social Influences, Science, Vol. 93 (N.S.),
194I, pp. 89-90; idemn:A Measure of the Influence of Population at a Distance, Sociometry, Vol. 5.
I942, pp. 63-7I.
Cf. J. Q. Stewart: Coasts, Waves, and Weather for Navigators, Boston, New York, etc., I945,
I7

Chap. I .

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472 THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW

Island); (3) circulationof the St. Louis Star-Timesby counties (copies sold
varied according to county population divided by distancefrom the city).
In each of these three cases the population-divided-by-distancerule
held only to a certainboundary.The colleges and schoolsexaminedincluded
Princeton, Yale, Harvard, MassachusettsInstitute of Technology, Vassar,
Stanford, Exeter, and Lawrenceville-all of them seasoned, privately en-
dowed, "national"institutions.For all the easternones therewas a systematic
tendency for enrollment to include two or three times more studentsfrom
the Rocky Mountain States and, particularly,from the West Coast States,
than the formula indicated.The same tendency appliedto attendanceat the
World's Fair.But Princetonundergraduatesincludedroughly io times fewer
Canadiansand 25 times fewer Mexicans than the formula required. As
regardsthe circulationof the St. Louis newspaper,it was found to be con-
fined to a territoryin adjoiningstatesthat was rathersharplylimited by the
KansasCity, Chicago, and Memphis competitions.
Again, the World's Fair "pulled" so strongly at a distanceof hundreds
of miles that extrapolationclose at hand in accordancewith the inverse-
distancerule was obviously absurd.Likewise, the Star-Timessold so many
copies at a moderate distance that extrapolationof the rule into the city
of St. Louis itself led to the impossible requirementthat everyone there
ought to have bought several copies apiece. Any college draws at any
distanceso few studentsper Ioo,ooo of the populationthat a similar"satura-
tion" effect does not occur close to the campus. Also, college competition,
unlike that of most newspapers,is not of the "all or none" type: Yale draws
studentswho live within a mile of Nassau Hall.
Dr. Kingsley Davis, in a recent discussion,'8made the interestingand
logical general suggestion that the "demographicinfluence"of population
N at a distanced is always N/d, but that its realizationin various types of
"social influence"is subjectto specialconsiderationsin individualcases.
Further examples of such "social influences" related to potential of
population have been furnishedby ProfessorZipf. These include such sur-
prising agreementsas the expectation of the occurrenceof obituariesfrom
specifiedcities in the New YorkTimesand of news items in inside pages of
the ChicagoTribune;'9also the number of bus passengersbetween specified
cities; the number of telegramsand of telephonemessagesinterchanged;the
number of railroadtickets sold.20
i8
Kingsley Davis: The Development of the City in Society, FirstConferenceon Long Term Social
Trends, Auspices of Social Science ResearchCouncil, March 22, I947.
x9G. K. Zipf, Amer.Journ.of Psychol.,Vol. 59, 1946, pp. 401-421.
20
Zipf, Amer.Journ.of Psychol, loc. cit.; idem,Journ.of Psychology,Vol. 22, 1946, pp. 3-8; etc.

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 473

"ENERGY OF INTERCHANGE"

In the physicalanalogies,the potentialis the energy in the field (gravita-

tional, electrical,or magnetic) of a unit mass (or chargeor pole). The energy
of any given mass at a point is the potential at that point multiplied by the
said mass. Likewise, we may consider that the "demographicenergy" or
"interchange"between a population N1 and a second population N2 at
distanced is N1 times N2/d. This demographicenergy is the same whether
it is computed at the first or the second population, since N1/d times N2
equalsN1 times N\2/d.
The data for college undergraduates,when we come to consider them
in this way, appearas one example of such "interchange,"proportionateto
NiN2/d, because doubling the size of the student body (without eclectic
selection) would be expected ultimately to double the number of students
from each state.
It may be assertedwith confidence that NiN2/d, like potential, is a
very important demographic quantity. The evolution of our civilization has
been in the direction of increasingit.

MAPS OF POTENTIALOF POPULATION

Density of population is a familiar demographic index-so familiar

that we forget its wholly physicalnature.In orderto determinethe potential
at any point in the United Statesproducedby all the people, it is necessary
to start with what amounts to a rathercomplete survey of the population
densities.However, if a very detailed, or "fine-grained,"map of potentials
is not required,it is enough to have the populationsof individualstatesor
larger districts.
On a density map each person-or, more usually, a given number of
persons-may be representedby a dot.2I Such a map shows where people
live, but does not show how strongly their influence extends from that
place.
Insteadof representinga person by a dot, think of each as surrounded
by a greatsandpile.22Supposethat the sandis piled in a ring with a one-mile
radiusabout the individual'sresidenceto some arbitraryheight, such as a
foot. Then suppose that wider rings are piled, the height decreasingpro-
21 See, for
example, the Sixteenth Census of the United States, I940: Population, Vol. I, p. 2. For
a seriesof density maps of the United StatesI790-1930 see C. O. Paullin:Atlas of the HistoricalGeogra-
phy of the United States, edited by J. K. Wright, Carnegie Institutionof Washington and American
GeographicalSociety, CarnegieInstn. Publ. No. 401, 1932, Plates 76-79.
22 This descriptionof the
"sand-pilecitizen"is adapted from Stewart,Coasts,Waves, and Weather,
loc. cit.

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474 THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW

portionallyas the radiusincreases,so thatin the two-mileringthe sandis

o.5 foot high andin the Iooo-mileringit is only o.ooI foot high. Then the
heightof his hypotheticalsandpileanywherein the countrysymbolizesthe
person's"demographic influence"there,on the basisof theassumedinverse-
distancerule.
Supposethatthereis a similarlyconstructedsandpile aroundthe place
of residenceof every individualin the country.Then supposethat all this
sandis superposed. At anypointthe totalheightof the sandwill be the sum
of all the heightsof the sandpilesof the individualsat thatpoint.Leta con-
tourmap be made of the elevationsof the resultant
terrain.
Wherethe influenceof peoplesumsup to largevalues,we have "high-
lands"and"peaks"of influence.Suchpointsarenearerto morepeople,and
all kindsof sociologicalactivitiesare expectedto be at a high level there.
Wherefew peopleare near,thereare "lowlands"of influence-areasthat
appeal to hermits.
Everycity is a separatepeak.Eachcity peakrisesfromthe generallevel
that holds throughoutthe ruraldistrictsaroundthat particularcity. The
ruraldistrictsimmediatelysurrounding New York City are alreadyat the
highestlevelof all the nonurbanregionsin the country,and from thishigh
platformthe "New Yorkpeak"risesto the maximum.
The readerwill understand thatwe are speakingonly in generalterms
and that the computeddemographicpotentialis not alwayseffectiveas a
visible sociologicalfactor.Thus the RamapoMountainsin New Jersey
areonly 30 milesfromNew YorkCity, butthe "New YorkWalkBook"23
saysof conditionsthere:"Mostof the farmsof the earlysettlershave re-
vertedto forest,and of these severaloccur along the CannonballRoad.
None of the housesare left, but appletreesremainto marktheirplace."
Evidentlythe summed-upvalue,at any pointin the country,of all the
individualsandpiles is the total potentialof populationat thatpoint. The
physiographic contourmapjust describedis exactlyequivalentto a map of
potentialof population.Along eachcontourthe potentialis constant.
Thuswe seethata potentialmapresultswhena densitymapis smoothed
in accordance formula.The originaldensitymap
with the inverse-distance
cannotbe reconstructed from the potentialmap.Eachtype of map hasits
specialadvantage use; the two are supplementary,
and not mutuallyex-
clusive.Eachconceptis a physicalone.
Figures3 to I5 presenta numberof geographicalmaps,all of which
23 R. H.
Torrey, Frank Place, Jr., and R. L. Dickinson: New York Walk Book, Amer. Geogr. Soc
Outing Ser. No. 2, I923, pocket edit., p. 9o.

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 475

except the one of Europe (Fig. 4) were computed by the writer and his
students.24
THE CONSTRUCTIONOF POTENTIALMAPS
The general procedure in constructing contours of equipotentials of
population may be clarified by considerationof a special case (Fig. 2), in
FIG. 2-Equipotentials surrounding four equal
charges at the corners of a square. The four equal
charges (populations, masses, magnetic poles), if
O j ?,) \/ ( [ ?^ )\\ \actually concentrated at points would give rise to
infinite potentials at these points; but this never
happens:each charge always is diffused over a finite
</ 42^g8 \ ~ space, however small. At a distance (outside the
- diagram) the equipotentialsare nearly circular. The
^
28^?72/ "mountain"rises, with four ridges and four ravines,
t940
X^ /"^to
3?/
\ 9 the level 2940. Above that it breaksinto four peaks,
I 3379) / ) \ )
(1C96 each rising above 3728. A central crater falls to a
0\\ / \7\
2
)2 ) level of 2828. These values of potential are each
proportional to the sum of the four reciprocalsof
'-- /24 respectivedistancesto the four corners.
2144 /

which we have a very simple situationon the original density map, namely
four equal concentrations.The contours of Figure 2 were constructedas
follows: The symmetry of the situationreducesthe problem to one of draw-
ing the contours for a single quarter-indeed, for half of this. A number of
points over the generalareaof one octant were selected.For each point the
four distanceswere measuredto the four corers of the squareand tabulated
in four columns. Since the four concentrationswere supposedto be equal,
summation of the four reciprocalsof the distancesgave the total potential
at each point. (Of course, a constant multiplying factor could have been
applied, the same at every point, to allow for any assumedsize of the equal
concentrationsof population at the four cornersof the square.).
After suchpotentialshad been determinedby measurementand computa-
tion for a number of differentselected points, the equipotentialsshown in
the diagramwere sketchedwithin the octant by interpolation.In a situation
such as this, labor is saved by the shrewd selectionof which contoursshould
be drawn first, becauseoften there are certaincontoursthat serve as
general
controls.Then over the entire areaof the squarethe contourswere sketched
by symmetry.
In actual demographicalcases the population is spread out over wide
areas,and it is always necessaryto begin with an approximation.The whole
24 See the referencein Stewart, Coasts, Waves, and Weather, loc. cit.

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476 THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW

areais dividedinto a numberof districts.On the map of the United States

(Fig. 3) 24 such districtswere selected,larger in area in the thinly peopled
West thanin the denselysettledEast.Eachdistrictcomprisedone full state
or more, so that the populationcould convenientlybe takenfrom census
data.The populationof each districtwas arbitrarilysupposedto be con-
centratedat somechosenpointwithinit. Distancesin mileswere measured

'^rY:D . So;'/ -* /-

30~L3

:'' 2000000
100,000 ... ............. ^ 200,000 400 000
^-Jc;
1940
O
MILES
500

300 000

r Contour
.UNITED STATES 1
/rterva/ 50,ooo/m//e Vf o 1 500 KILOMETERS000 '00500
50,
C'on~our
i/7&eia/ 50,000 mle 500 KILOMETERS

3-Contours of the "potentialsof population"for the United States, 940. The potential is a
FIG.
200, 000

: l7tou- ....e l ,00 77.........e ..........

0KILOMETERS
I"'. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~GEOGR.
I PEVIEW,oJULY,1947

FIG. 3-Contours of the "potentialsof population"for the United States, i940. The potential is a
measure of the propinquity of people. Each individual contributes to the total potential at any place an
amount equal to the reciprocal of his distance away; contours therefore are in units of "persons per mile."
Potential as a sociological influence exerts an effect measurable in many ways. For example, along any
one of these contours of equipotential, the density of rural population tends to a constant value, observed
to be proportional to the square of the potential. The reader is warned again that none of the maps are
precise; in particular the actual contours near large cities differ in that every city presents a separate peak
of potential.

on a United States map between the 24 x 23/2, or 276, pairs of districts.

Each distancewas recordedin its appropriatebox in a squarediagramhaving
24 rows and 24 columns. The population of each district was recorded at
the head of its column. Also, the name of each districtwas written alongside
one particular row. Down every column the population of the corresponding
district was divided by the distancebetween it and the district represented
by each row. The resultant quotient was entered in its appropriate box,
corresponding to row and column, and was the potential produced by one
district (column) at the other (row). When these partial potentials were

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 477

summedalonga row, theresultwasthe potentialat the district(correspond-

ing to the row) thatwas producedby all the otherdistricts.
To thishadto be addedthe potentialof the district"on itself."If there
aremanydistricts,eachis smallenoughto makethiscontribution to thetotal
potentialrelativelyminor,so that precisionin its computationis not very
important.
K ' ' ' 0 I 20 40 60 /
.:

EUROPE 7/- 0 3o,,

300o000
Co,ntour i,/7terYv/ ooo/k//ilomete, /

I 0 000

i
..P[
---- r '/.-""
~ >i0 500
MILES
'0 -500 KILOMETERS

" GEOGR.
/ , ,/ ^ REVIEW, JULY, 1947 \

FIG. 4-Potentials of population for Europe in the I930's. This map is the finest-grainedyet com-
puted, with 93 control points, as comparedwith only 24 for the United States.Consequentlyrelatively
minor inflectionsin the contours are presentedwith reasonableaccuracy.The kilometer is the unit of
distance:potentialsare in personsper kilometerand must be multipliedby 1.609 to give personsper mile.
(Dudley Kirk and PopulationResearchOffice.)

The potentialof a districton itselfcan be approximated by one of a

numberof expedients.Underno circumstances in actualpracticeis it ex-
cessivelylarge.For example,the potentialat the centerof a disk having
uniformdensityof populationcan be computed(by integralcalculus)as
the populationdividedby halfthe radius.
Even the potentialof a person"on himself"is finite.If we take, for
purposesof illustration,a man'saveragedistancefrom himselfas one foot
or I/5000 mile, the potential comes out 5000 personsper mile. This is far
less than any potential representedin Figure 3 for the United States. Since
potential of population is population divided by distance,it is always ex-
pressedin units of people per mile or per kilometer,or in millions of persons

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 FIGS. 5-9-Population potentialsfor South America, Africa, India, China, andJapan.Potentialsare in personsper
mile. The map for
India is only a rough approximation.The major peaks of potential in every continent are at salt-watermetropolises.The demographic
influenceof great river valleys is clearlyevident except in the case of the Amazon.

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 FIGS. IO-13-A century of increases in population potentials in the United States. Contours on successive maps refer to potentials
(in persons per mile) which have been selected in proportion to the nation's total population-which increased by a factor of about 7 from
1840 to 1940. If this increase had been uniform in every state and county, successive maps would be identical. Actually contours which in
r840 extended west of Chicago have moved farther west, while those east of Chicago have tended to cluster closer to New York.

POPULATION '.
OUTSIDE INCORPORATEDPLACES
1930 AREAS
Contour /ntervaf / ,00OO/mile Contour interval 500 persons per ml/e

FIG. 14-Potentials for population outside of incorporatedplacesin the United States, 1930. The peak potential is not far from Cin-
cinnati and Louisville.
FIG. I5-Potentials for uniform population density in the United States. If one person lived in each squaremile of land area,the
total population would be 2,977,i28, and the peak potential,about 6000oopersonsper mile, would be in Kansas.Compare with Figure 3;
so much for the illusion that Kansasis the demographicalcenter of the country.

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480 THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW

per mile, etc. Density of population is expressedin personsper unit area-

squaremile or squarekilometer.
If a potential map is computed by means of a large number of small
districts, such a "fine-grained"map will show that every city constitutes
a local peak of potential, large or small. In a large city there is heavy con-
centrationof population toward the center, but the peak potentialsdo not
exceed 2 or 3 millions per mile.

DISCUSSION OF THE MAPS

The maps of population potential, Figures 3 to 9, have two striking

features in common. The major peak in every concentration (except for
Nigeria) is a seaportmetropolis,from which runsa dominantaxis or "ridge,"
descending graduallyin the hinterland.
In some cases, namely Calcutta-Ganges River, Shanghai-Yangtze
River, Cairo-Nile River, Nigeria-Niger River, the major peaks and their
ridges might be explained in part or wholly as a matter of easy internal
communication and fertility of soil. But for New York and London the
explanationis not so simple.The fact that these citiesare the dominantpeaks
of their great human massifs must indicate the nonisolation of the two
continents. An isolated human grouping would be expected to have its
major peak near its center, provided the naturalresourcesthere permitted
it-and certainlynot away off at one side, next to the empty sea.
Figures Io to 13 show developments in the United States since 1840.
Even in 1840 New York was already establishedas the dominant peak,
though the axis west of Pittsburghthen ran down the Ohio River. That was
the effect of good agricultureand easy river communications.
School children hear much of the westward growth of this country.
The growth is evident in the contours west of Chicago: in this little series
of maps they have moved westward. But there has been another develop-
ment, which has involved many more people, although less area-the
growing prominenceof the New York peak, which had barely been estab-
lished in 1840. This represents,in effect, not a westward but an eastward
migration!
A potential map for I790 (not included here) shows differentcontours
-long semiellipsesextending north and south, with New York City not
yet the major peak but enjoying the central position on a relatively high
principal"plateau"that extended perhapsfrom Richmond, Va., to Salem,
Mass.25It may have been even then a blunder in demography to establish
25 Computations by C. R. Rourke and J. W. Thompson, Princeton undergraduates.

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 48I

Washington, D. C., insteadof New York, as the federalcapital.The Ohio

River axis of 1840 was, of course,not yet evident; insteadthere was the line
of CumberlandGap toward Kentucky.
In physics the rate of change of potential with distancein any direction
measuresthe "field intensity" in that direction.-The field intensity is the
number of people divided by the square of their distance away; it is a
directed,or "vector,"quantity,while potential is a "scalar"quantity with-
out direction. "Lines of force" define the field and always run at right
angles to the contours of equipotential.The sharpeningof the New York
peak, which presumably is still going on, is one indication that in this
respect also the physical analogue carries into demography. Populations
tend to shift slowly along the lines of force toward the peaks of potential.
Japan'sdouble peak has endured in defiance of this tendency, becausethe
mountains that intervene keep the Tokyo-Yokohama and Kyoto-Osaka
concentrationsseparated,notwithstanding their mutual attraction.
Majorroutesof communication,suchas rivervalleys, show up on density
maps as thickly settled ribbonsand thereforeof necessityare evident on the
potential maps as lines of force, at right angles to the contours of equi-
potential.26
Figures 14 and I5 are additional potential maps. Figure 14 is for one
class only of the population, people living outside incorporatedplaces in
I930. The old Ohio River axis is still dominant in this agriculturalpicture.
The peakis far from New York. (A map for the ruralfarmpopulationought
to be made.)
Figure I5 shows what would resultif the whole country were populated
with uniform density, one person per squaremile. The maximum potential
of 6000 personsper mile in Kansasthus appliesfor a total populationof only
about 3,000,000. If this were increased to the 132,000,000 of 1940, the level
would rise to 260,000 personsper mile, as comparedwith the actual650,ooo
in ruralterritorynear New York City in Figure 3.
Apologies are due to our Canadianfriends for the failure of all these
26
Reilly stateda "law of retail gravitation"for trade areas,which describedthe equilibriumpoint
or "breakingpoint" between two competing cities; he used population divided by the square of the
distance.See W. J. Reilly: Method for the Study of Retail Relationships,Univ. of TexasBull. No. 2944,
1929. Some such rule as his would follow from the concept of potential of population, if a given trade
areaextendedonly as faras the farthest-outcontoursof potentialwhich closedarounda city. For a recent
study of this phase,see P. D. Converse: A Study of Retail Trade Areasin East CentralIllinois, Univ. of
IllinoisBull., Vol. 4I, No. 7 (BusinessStudies No. 2), I943; also his "Retail Trade Areas in Illinois,"
ibid., Vol. 43, No. 68 (BusinesssStudies No. 4), 1946.
An early examination of the distancefactor in sociology was made by J. H. S. Bossard:Marriage
and the Child, Philadelphia, 1940, Chap. 4.

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482 THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW

United States maps to include the potential exerted by the population of

Canada.That is not large enough to be of primaryimportance,even along
the frontier, but no doubt it ought to have been included.
The typical major-peak-and-ridgedistributiondeservesfurther thought
and comment. It is clear that the tendency of the summed coefficients
N1N2/d for a human grouping to tend toward a maximum must be resisted
by a counterbalancingtendency, or "demographicforce." Otherwise there
would be one city at the peak and no ridge or rurallowlands. The student
in elementary celestialmechanicsis told that a planet's gravitationtoward
the sun is balancedby the centrifugalforce of the planet's orbital motion.
The correspondingoutwarddemographictendencycan also be given mathe-
maticalexpression,but this is reservedfor a later paper.
Thus the ridges down from the major peaks seem to be a result of the
tendency for people to draw together, while at the same time some of them
must keep spreadout in order to maintainthorough contact with the soil
and the herds, the mineralsand the sea.

"INDUCED" RURAL POPULATION

By no means all dwellers in ruralareasare occupied directly with rural

matters. A large number are there to perform servicesfor the remainder;
and many others, who work in cities, live in the country for one reason or
another. Acreage that is near many people-and thus at a high potential of
population-is likely to be utilized for the residencesof commuters,and also
of local workers, becausesuch an area offers specialopportunitiesfor liveli-
hood. One expects, then, a relationshipbetween potentialand the density of
rural population.The relation previously announced27has been abundantly
confirmed:
DR = k VT2, (13)
where VT is the potential at any point produced by the total population,
DR is the ruraldensity at and near the given point, and k is a constantfor the
isolated human grouping that is being considered (the United States or
Europe).
This equation has been verified for all the censusesof the United States
that were studied;namely 1840, 1900, I930, and I940. Agreement state by
state is relativelymore regularin later years.
Equation 13 evidently is equivalentto
Pr = k vT2 A, (14)
27 Stewart, An Inverse Distance Variation;idem, Coasts, Waves, and Weather, p. 164.

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 483

where Pr is the rural population of a given small area A having potential

VT2. Summing (14) over the entire United States,or any district thereof,
we have
Pr = k VT2A, (I)

Pr being the total rural population of the district. This equation permits
the easy determinationof k from the observeddata.Values of VT are taken
TABLE V-RELATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE U. S. RURAL POPULATION (I940) TO THE POTENTIAL
OF THE TOTAL POPULATION (EQUATION I5)

State VT2 A PR State VT2 A PR

Obs. Comp. Obs.Comp.
N. J. 26 x 10'4 77 x 104 92 X IO4 Vt. 8 x io'4 24 x IO4 28 x IO4
Conn. 13 55 46 N.H. 8 21 28
R. I. 2 6 7 Wis. 40 I46 I41
Penna. 90 331 318 Mo. 5I I82 i8i
Del. 4 13 14 Iowa 35 145 123
Mass. 17 46 60 Me. 12 50 42
Md. I8 74 63 Kans. 36 o15 127
N. Y. 77 231 272 Minn. 32 I40 113
Ohio 62 229 219 Okla. 30 I46 Io6
W.Va. 34 137 120 Nebr. 28 8o 99
Ind. 51 I54 I80 Tex. 84 350 295
Ill. 73 209 257 S.D. 20 48 70
Va. 52 173 183 N.D. 14 51 49
Ky. 48 200 169
Mich. 57 I80 201 Sums 1022 3603 3603
NOTE.-The over-all ratio 3603/022, or 3.525, is multiplied into each VT2Ato get the computed PR,
which compares well with the observed values. Values of VT were taken by inspection from Figure
3-a rough averagefor each state.In the table the statesare arrangedin decreasingorder of the potentials,.
from 520,000for N.J. to I40,000 for N.D. In the products VT2Athe unit of areais the squaremile.

from a potentialmap for each areaA, averaged,by inspection,over the area.

In Table V data for 1940 are given for 28 states east of Colorado, not
including nine statesof the deep South. The indicatedvalue of k is
(35I + 45) X IO-I2 people -I

The "probableerror"of only 13 per cent shows the regularityof the agree-
ment.
But when the rural equilibrium so indicated is extended to the deep
South, we have the resultsof Table VI. Each of the nine stateshad an excess
over the computedruralpopulation.The total excessamountedto 5,600,000.
For comparison, the total rural Negro population of these states in 1940
was about 5,000,000. The agreement is doubtless significant.
The equilibriumof Table V holds also for the ii Rocky Mountain and
PacificCoast Statesif all are takentogether.A deficitof about 2,000,000 rural

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484 THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW

dwellersbelow the formulain the eight statesof mountainand desertis

balancedby an equalsurplusin the threePacificstates.
It is worth noting that (I3) is the only form of the relation-of rural
density to potential of total population-that is independent of absolute
space. If the United Stateswere to be doubled in length and breadthwhile
the same people kept on living in the same counties, the existing rural
TABLEVI-"OVERPOPULATION"IN RURALDISTRICTSOF THE DEEP SOUTH (1940)

State VT2 A PR
Obs. Comp.
N. C. 49 xoIo4 260 X Io4 173 x Io4
Tenn. 42 I89 148
S. C. 22 143 78
Ga. 40 205 I41
Ala. 32 198 II3
Ark. 33 I52 ii6
Miss. 28 175 99
La. 22 138 78
Fla. I5 85 53

Sums 283 1545 999

NOTE.-The excess of actual observed rural population over that computed is 5,460,000. Values of PR
computed are obtained by multiplying the numbers in the second column by 3.525, according to the
equilibriumestablishedin the states of Table V.

equilibrium would not be disturbed, because all potentials would be re-

ducedby a factorof two while all areaswould be increasedby a factorof four.
The equationshold also for Europe, for censusesin the I930's correspond-
ing to the potentials of Figure 4. The most conspicuousdeviation there is
a latitude effect. There are fewer-than-formularural dwellers in the high
northern latitudesof Scandinaviaand Russiaif the value of k is chosen so
as to give the best average fit for all of Europe (that is to say about
I50 x io people1).
It is thus proved that potential of population, as regardsthe effect on
ruralpopulationdensity, canjump internationalboundariesas though these
were nonexistent. Sociologists point to the relatively small movement of
people acrosscertainEuropeanfrontiers,but physicistsknow that, although
rapidmobility within a system shortensthe time requiredto reachequilibri-
um, the characteristicsof the equilibriumitself may be independentof this
time, whether long or short. Equation 14 and its corollary, I5, describe
an equilibriumof the rural population, in relation to the total population.
Presumablysomemobility, ratherthan largemobility, is enough to establish
this equilibriumeverywhere.

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 DISTRIBUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION 485

At present writing, the four empirical rules, equations I, II, 13, and
the equation for potential of population, must be considered mutually
independent.The equationfor potential (or energy) is doubtlessthe funda-
mental one, and it is possiblethat a way will be found to derive one or more
of the other three from it.
The rank-size rule for cities presumablyexpressesan equilibrium that
results from urban competition. The rural-density rule, equation 13, as
has been said,expressesan equilibriumbetween the ruralpopulationand the
total population. The existence of any relation of C to U, such as equation
II, points to a third equilibrium-one between the rural and the urban
populationsas a whole.
Further applicationsof the rank-size rule have been worked out and
will be publishedlater, including applicationsthat hold for relatively small
samples of people; namely those classifiedby the census as employed in
some particularoccupationin each of the larger cities of the United States.
Still other empiricalrelations,not touched on at all in this paper,have been
found.
There is no longer excuse for anyone to ignore the fact that human
beings, on the average and at least in certain circumstances,obey mathe-
matical rules resemblingin a generalway some of the primitive "laws" of
physics. "Social physics" lies within the grasp of scholarshipthat is un-
prejudicedand truly modern. When we have found it, people will wonder
at the blind opposition its first proponentsencountered.
Meanwhile, let "social planners"beware! Water must be pumped to
flow uphill, and naturaltendenciesin human relationscannot be combated
and controlledby singing to them. The architectmust acceptand understand
the law of gravity and the limitations of materials.The city or national
plannerlikewise must adapthis studiesto naturalprinciples.

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