Lectures 2 and 3: Four - Step Travel Demand Forecasting Model System

9/11/17
Lectures 2 and 3:

Four-‐Step Travel Demand
Forecasting Model System
Song Gao
CEE509 Transportation Systems Analysis
University of Massachusetts Amherst

Fall 2017
Outline
• (from p revious lecture) Equilibrium analysis of
transportation s ystems
• Basics of travel d emand modeling
• The trip-‐based 4 -‐step model
– Trip generation
– Trip distribution
Readings:
S 1.1 (equilibrium analysis of t ransportation systems)
M 5.4 (4-‐step models; focusing on t rip generation and
distribution),
S1.2 (network representation; centroid and connectors)
CEE509 Transportation Systems Analysis Song Gao September 11 and 12, 2017
University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of CEE Page 2
Modeling Framework
Land Use and Economic
Long Term
Development
Household & Individual
Behavior
Lifestyle and Mobility Decisions

Activity and Travel Scheduling

Implementation and Rescheduling

Transportation System
Short Term
Performance

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Elements in Demand Models

• Resolution of space
à zones
• Resolution of time
à separate into time bands
• Resolution of people
à define by demographics
• Resolution of activities
à work, shop, entertainment, other
• Depiction of travel patterns
à trips, t ours, activity schedules
Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)
• Study area: delineates the geographical area that

includes the transportation system under analysis
and encompasses most of the project effects
• Traffic analysis zones (TAZs): a number of discrete
geographic units obtained by subdividing the
study area
– Centroid and centroid connectors
– External stations
– Interzonal and intrazonal trips
– the d ensity of z oning s hould approximately correspond
to the d ensity of the relevant n etwork elements
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Network
• Level of detail depends on the problem at

hand and the TAZ level
An Example
An Example
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Representing Activity/Travel Behavior
Schedule Tours Trips

Space Space Space
H
H H
W
W W
W
S
S H S
H S
H
H H D
D D D
H H
H
Time Time Time
H: Home W: Work S: Shop D: Dinner out
Trip-‐Based: The 4-‐Step Model

• Trip Purposes Space
Home-‐based work (HBW) H
Home-‐based shop (HBShop) W 1. HBW
Home-‐based other (HBOth)

Non-‐home-‐based (NHB)
W 2. NHB
• Behavioral Steps H
S
S 3. HBShop
1. Trip Generation (Trip F requency) H

D
D
4. HBOth
5. HBOth
Time H
2. Trip Distribution (Destination Choice)
3. Modal S plit (Mode Choice)
4. Assignment (Route Choice)
Trip-‐Based: The 4-‐Step Model
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Trip Generation: Trip Production

• Trip production
– The home end of a trip, e.g., the d estination of a
work-‐home trip
– The origin of a n on-‐home-‐based trip
• Depends on
– Household income, auto ownership and size,
number of workers p er h ousehold, residential
density, d istance of the z one from CBD
• Common method
– Cross classification
Trip Production: Cross-‐Classification
Trip Generation: Trip Attraction

• Trip attraction
– The non-‐home end of a trip, e.g., the d estination
of a trip b ack h ome from a s hopping center
– The destination of a n on-‐home-‐based trip
• Depends on
– Zonal employment levels by category ( e.g.
industrial, commercial, s ervices), accessibility to
the work force
• Common methods
– Regression
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Trip Attraction: Regression Examples
Trip Balance
• Ensure the area-‐wide production and
attraction totals are the same
• Scale the attractions to match productions
– Attraction models are generally less accurate than
production models, largely d ue to the lack of good
quality employment d ata compared to h ousehold
data ( from census and other regular h ousehold
surveys)
Trip Balancing
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The 4-‐Step Model: Trip Distribution

• Trip Matrix
Productions
P1
P2
P3
Pi
PI
A1 A2 A3 Aj AJ
The 4-‐Step Model: Trip Distribution

• Gravity Model (doubly constrained)
𝑇"# = 𝑘"# 𝑃" 𝐴#𝑓 𝐶"# ,𝑖 = 1,… , 𝐼 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑗 = 1, … , 𝐽
5 𝑇"# = 𝑃" , 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝐼
#
5 𝑇"# = 𝐴#, 𝑗 = 1, … , 𝐽
"
– f(C ij) : Friction factor ( function of the generalized
cost of travel b etween i and j)
−bC
• E.g., f (C
ij ) = C ij , f (C
ij ) =
e ij , or a lookup table
−b
– 𝑘"# : b alancing p arameter

• Solve iteratively for Tij
€
Example: A Simple Three-‐Zone System
A2
A1
A3
• tij: travel time b etween zone i and j

• P i: p roduction of z one I; Ai : attraction of z one I
• Friction factor fij = ( tij) -‐1.5
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An Iterative Process for Gravity Model

∗
7 8 9 :<8:
𝑇"# = ? (1)
∑> @A 9 ∗><8>
• A* is a modified attraction term

– To ensure that the p redicted trips to a given z one j
∑iTij equal the true z onal attraction Aj
– Iterations
• Initial setting: (A j*)1 = A j
• Each iteration n: -‐ use (A j*)k to calculate (Tij)k using Eq. (1)
-‐ calculate (A j*)k+1 =(A j*)k(A j/∑i (Tij)k)
• Stopping condition: | (A j*)k+1 – (A j*)k|/ (A j*)k < ε (e.g., 0.05)
Iteration 1
A A
1 2 3 Pi 1 2 3 Pi
P P
1 100 1 75 5 20 100
2 200 2 55 55 90 200
3 100 3 28 11 61 100
Aj 200 50 150 400 Aj 200 50 150 400
A*j 200 50 150 ΣTij 158 71 171
A*j 253 35 132
A1* t11
−1.5
A1
T11 = P1 new A1* = (old A1* )
A1* t11−1.5 + A2* t12
−1.5
+ A3* t13−1.5 T11 + T21 + T31
200 × 2−1.5 200
= 100 = 200 = 253
200 × 2−1.5 + 50 × 5−1.5 + 150 × 4 −1.5 158
€ €
Iteration 2
A
1 2 3 Pi
P
1 82 3 15 100
2 74 42 84 200
3 37 8 55 100
Aj 200 50 150 400
ΣTij 193 52 154
A1* t11
−1.5
T11 = P1
A1* t11−1.5 + A2* t12
−1.5
+ A3* t13−1.5
253× 2−1.5
= 100
253× 2−1.5 + 35 × 5−1.5 + 132 × 4 −1.5
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Predicted vs. Observed P-‐A Matrix

A
1 2 3 Pi
P Predicted P-A matrix
1 82 3 15 100 after two iterations
2 74 42 84 200
3 37 8 55 100
Aj 193 53 154 400
A
1 2 3 Pi
P
Observed P-A matrix 1 80 5 15 100
2 80 40 80 200
3 40 5 55 100
Aj 200 50 150 400
Gravity Model Calibration

Adjust parameters in the friction factor function so that
observed and predicted trip length distributions are close
to one another, and the observed and predicted average
trip lengths differ by no more than some pre-specified
percentage.
The 4-‐Step Model: Modal Split

• MNL
eVauto
P(auto ) = Vauto
e + eVtransit
• Nested Logit
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9/11/17
PA to OD
• Production: home-‐end of a home-‐based trip,
not necessarily the origin
• Attraction: the non-‐home end of a home-‐
based trip, not necessarily the destination
• Need to convert home-‐based PA matrix to OD
matrix
• For a 24-‐hour matrix, there are equal number
of leaving and returning trips
ODij = (PAij + PAji )/2
The 4-‐Step Model: Assignment

• Route Choice
– Deterministic: s hortest p ath, minimum
generalized cost
– Stochastic: p erception errors on travel time ( e.g.
Logit)
• Equilibrium
– Supply Side
– User Equilibrium
• No user can improve t ravel
time by unilaterally changing route
10
9/11/17
Commercial Software
Current:
•TransCAD
•EMME
•VISUM
•Cube
Legacy:
•TRIPS
•TP+
•TRANPLAN
11

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9/11/17

Lectures 2 and 3:

University of Massachusetts Amherst

Elements in Demand Models

Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)

• Study area: delineates the geographical area that

• Level of detail depends on the problem at

Representing Activity/Travel Behavior

Schedule Tours Trips

H: Home W: Work S: Shop D: Dinner out

Trip-­‐Based: The 4-­‐Step Model

Home-­‐based work (HBW) H

Home-­‐based shop (HBShop) W 1. HBW

Home-­‐based other (HBOth)

1. Trip Generation (Trip F requency) H

Trip-­‐Based: The 4-­‐Step Model

Trip Generation: Trip Production

Trip Production: Cross-­‐Classification

Trip Generation: Trip Attraction

Trip Attraction: Regression Examples

The 4-­‐Step Model: Trip Distribution

The 4-­‐Step Model: Trip Distribution

– 𝑘"# : b alancing p arameter

Example: A Simple Three-­‐Zone System

• tij: travel time b etween zone i and j

An Iterative Process for Gravity Model

• A* is a modified attraction term

Predicted vs. Observed P-­‐A Matrix

Gravity Model Calibration

The 4-­‐Step Model: Modal Split

The 4-­‐Step Model: Assignment

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Trip-‐Based: The 4-‐Step Model

Home-‐based work (HBW) H

Home-‐based shop (HBShop) W 1. HBW

Home-‐based other (HBOth)

Trip-‐Based: The 4-‐Step Model

Trip Production: Cross-‐Classification

The 4-‐Step Model: Trip Distribution

The 4-‐Step Model: Trip Distribution

Example: A Simple Three-‐Zone System

Predicted vs. Observed P-‐A Matrix

The 4-‐Step Model: Modal Split

The 4-‐Step Model: Assignment