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My Under/Over strategy [COMEBACK]
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yuvalfra
02-11-04, 17:01
Warning - this is long!
I never really thought about betting Over/Under but in the last few days
I've been trying out a new strategy, seeing how successful I could be with
Over/Under.
I will include all the bets I have noted till now, and no one has to believe
me that I actually guessed these before the matches, since you have no
proof, but that's your choice, I will show my bets from now on, hopefully
continuing with a successful run.
My strategy is simple - stats. You all know this, but very few actually write
down the stats and learn them. Here's what I do - say there's a match
between Fullham and Liverpool. I will check what's Fullham's average of
goals scored and conceived at home - which is 1.16 scored and 1.5
conceived, overall - 2.66 avg. goals in Fullham's home games. Let's
continue...
Liverpool away scores 1.3 goals and conceives 1.5, overall - 2.8 avg.
goals in Liverpool's away games. Now I check the minimum and maximum
amount of goals according to the stats. Fullham scores in home games
1.16 goals, and Liverpool conceives 1.5, the higher number is 1.5. Now,
Liverpool scores in away games 1.3 goals and Fullham conceives in home
games 1.5 goals, the higher number is 1.5. So the max is 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0
goals in the game. In the same manner you find the minimum which is
2.46. The avg. of the min/max is 2.73.
Meaning, all the stats show a possibility of OVER. 2.66 avg goals in
Fullham home games, 2.80 avg goals in Liverpool away games and the
min/max avg. is 2.73 - all OVER 2.5.
[edit] In the latest refined strategy of the system only if matches have
5/5 values over/under they are taken. Not 4/5 nor 3/5.
Since these are the stats, my bet would ofcourse be OVER. If the numbers
are a not as decisive towards over, and I am not almost sure what the
stats say, I will not touch the game. Sometimes if I can't decide by the
home/away stats, I will check the home team's games and see how many
were under and how many were over, but usually I would leave a game
alone if the stats weren't very decisive. The only way I would bet if the
stats aren't decisive are if they show a good possibility of over or under
and the odd on that is very high (above 2 - f.ex Udinese-Palermo which
was a lost bet).
[edit] According to the newest strategy of the system value bets are NOT
picked anymore, they did not prove true value in the long run.
Now, you could say I'm stupid since if under is a low odd it means the
stats are decisive at under and same if over is a low odd but that's not the
truth. Usually the odds are based more on the team's squads rather than
stats, f.ex Real played against Getafe, and the stats showed a sure under,
but the odd on under was over 2.40, and I managed to win that bet
(again, I'm just testing, no money involved yet).
So anyway, here are my first bets and I will continue updating in this
thread (all bets 100 USD, odds taken from betfair, could be higher/lower
at a later/earlier date):
[Let's assume my bank is 1000 USD]
Wolfsburg v Mainz
OVER 2.5 @ 1.75 :D
Bolton v Newcastle
OVER 2.5 @ 2.06 :D
Real v Getafe
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.46 [value] :D
Udinese v Palermo
OVER 2.5 @ 2.43 [value] :(
Betis-Malaga
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.78 :D
Maritimo-Braga
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.79 :D
Setubal-Guimeras
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.78 :D
ManCity-Norwich
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.86 :D

Original bank: 1,000
New bank: 1,548 (54% profit)
Overall 8 bets, 7 bets won, 1 bet lost
Hope this run will continue and this will help some people, and if it does
continue to be successful I will start investing money in it.
Good luck to all U/O bettors.
+Jimmy+
03-11-04, 13:50
It's all about mathematic but wouldn't that take up most of your time
especially during the weekend?
However, do you see any profitable pick today? I am going to place my

bet on over 2.5 for the match between OB Odense and Herfolge in an
hour time.
yuvalfra
03-11-04, 16:06
No, it really takes a minute or two to write down the numbers for each
match.
I'll try and see if I can post some picks from the Danish league today, I
don't wanna apply the strategy to the CL since I don't think it's as
effective.
About the match you specified:
Odense at home scores 2.1 goals and conceives 1.3 - 3.4 overall
Herfolge away scores 1.1 goals and conceives 2.6 - 3.7 overall
minimum goals (statistically) = 3.2

maximum goals (statistically) = 3.9
minimum/maximum average = 3.55
So, a definite OVER according to the stats.
yuvalfra
03-11-04, 16:07
Perhaps the Danish league is not the best league to apply the strategy to,
since it seems most if not all games are OVER in the stats, but I'll try
anyway...
Pick: OB Odense-Herfolge OVER 2.5 goals, 100 USD @ 1.59
AGF-AAB
AGF at home: 1.6, 1.1, overall 2.7
AAB away: 1.6, 1.8, overall 3.4
min=3.2
max=3.4
avg=3.3
Pick: OVER 2.5 goals, 100 USD @ 1.63
Esbjerg - Brondby
Esbjerg at home: 2.8, 1.5, overall 4.3

Brondby away: 1.8, 0.5, overall 2.3
min=2.0
max=4.6
avg=3.3
FC Midtjylland v FC Kobenhavn
Midtjylland at home: 1.8, 0.8, overall 2.6

Kobenhavn away: 1.6, 2.0, overall 3.6
min=2.6
max=3.6
avg=3.1
FC Nordsjaelland v Randers
Nordsjaelland at home: 1.8, 2.3, overall 4.1

Randers away: 0.8, 2.4, overall 3.2
min=2.6
max=4.7
avg=3.65
Viborg v Silkeborg
Viborg at home: 1.3, 0.8, overall 2.1

Silkeborg away: 1.1, 2.1, overall 3.2
min=2.1
max=3.2
avg=2.65
The stats are not decisive about an OVER, so there's some value in the
opposite bet.
Pick: UNDER 2.5 goals, 100 USD @ 2.34

That's all for today, we'll see how good this turns out.
yuvalfra
03-11-04, 17:37
From now on I'll just state the bets I make, without adding the stats, I'll
just note when a bet is of special status - a "value" bet for example.
Here are the bets so far (all flat stake of 100):
OB Odense v Herfolge
OVER 2.5 @ 1.59
AGF v AAB
OVER 2.5 @ 1.63
Esbjerg v Brondby
OVER 2.5 @ 1.88
OVER 2.5 @ 1.73
OVER 2.5 @ 1.65
Viborg v Silkeborg
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.34 [value]
yuvalfra
03-11-04, 17:50
Some bets from English Coca-Cola Championship:
Coventry v Preston
Derby v Brighton
OVER 2.5 @ 2.05
Leeds v Burnley
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.75
Nottm Forest v Rotherham

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.93
yuvalfra
03-11-04, 19:17
OK, some results...
OB Odense v Herfolge
OVER 2.5 @ 1.59 :D
AGF v AAB
OVER 2.5 @ 1.63 :D
Esbjerg v Brondby
OVER 2.5 @ 1.88 :D
OVER 2.5 @ 1.73 :(
OVER 2.5 @ 1.65 :D
Viborg v Silkeborg
CURRENT:
5 won bets, 1 lost bet

Staked: 600
Overall: +309 (51% profit)
OVERALL:
12 won bets, 2 lost bets

Magical
03-11-04, 20:22
Very nice Job Uvalfra !! :D :D
Theses stats can work for "last 5 match home" ???
And For Basketball and NFL ??
Where do you take stats please ??
Thnak you and good luck :wink:
yuvalfra
03-11-04, 20:44
Well, I don't know about Basketball and NFL, but interesting - maybe
applying the same tactic for NBA games could be successful, but we'll see
about that later, first I want to keep trying this in soccer to see how
successful this really is :wink:
What I do is go to http://soccerway.com/ to one of the league and then

just check the goal stats in the HOME or AWAY sections. I calculate them
by simply dividing the amount of goals (scored/conceived) with the
amount of matches played, and then I write down the stats as seen above
in my reply.
Hopefully this good run will continue :)
yuvalfra
03-11-04, 21:24
Not as successfull, but still a profit and that's what matters.
Coventry v Preston
Derby v Brighton
OVER 2.5 @ 2.05 :D
Leeds v Burnley
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.75 :(
Nottm Forest v Rotherham

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.93 :(
CURRENT:

Staked: 400
OVERALL:

+Jimmy+
04-11-04, 15:01
Great job!
Personally I went for over 2.5 on OB Odense vs Herfolge and

Nordsjaelland vs Randers and that sum up a good day for me.
I might have an early bet for tomorrow's fixture. I am going for under 2.5
on Roosendaal vs Graafschap. The only set-back will be the fact that your
strategy will probably indicate an over outcome.
yuvalfra
05-11-04, 11:38
One bet...
Millwall v Sunderland
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.70
yuvalfra
05-11-04, 22:24
Some more profit...
Millwall v Sunderland
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.70 :D
CURRENT:
1 won bet, 0 lost bets

Staked: 100
OVERALL:

yuvalfra
05-11-04, 22:28
Great job!
I might have an early bet for tomorrow's fixture. I am going for under 2.5
on Roosendaal vs Graafschap. The only set-back will be the fact that your
strategy will probably indicate an over outcome.
FT RBC Roosendaal 3 : 0 De Graafschap
You might wanna stick to my strategy for the time being, it's red hot at
the moment :)
The downside of that is that it will probably stay hot only until the
moment I begin investing money in it :?
TomPearce
06-11-04, 11:02
where is the best site to find these stats out from as the only place i can
find at the moment is Ladbrokes. It also looks like the game at Newcastle
this weekend is sure to go over, is this correct?
yuvalfra
06-11-04, 12:04
Here is the best site: http://soccerway.com/.
As for Newcastle-Fullham, indeed according to the stats it is sure to go

over.
Here is one bet, the other bets for the games taking place in the evening
will be added later...
Aston Villa v Portsmouth

OVER 2.5 @ 2.32 [value]
yuvalfra
06-11-04, 14:10
61 Aston Villa 3 : 0 Portsmouth
Another won bet... 8)
Here are some more bets for today:
C Palace v Arsenal
OVER 2.5 @ 1.84
Chelsea v Everton
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.85
Liverpool v Birmingham
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.80
Norwich v Blackburn
OVER 2.5 @ 2.10
Southampton v West Brom

OVER 2.5 @ 2.32 [value]
Tottenham v Charlton
OVER 2.5 @ 2.32 [value]
+Jimmy+
06-11-04, 14:21
I have punted on Saints match to go OVER as well. :)
yuvalfra
06-11-04, 14:28
Shame, I forgot to check the German Bundesliga and the games have
already started :?
+Jimmy+
06-11-04, 15:32
Southampton 1-2 now and that's my first bet won. I have taken a look at
Arsenal stats and it seems it suit the OVER as well. :)
iozell
06-11-04, 15:58
:twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: 55 Norwich 0 : 0
Blackburn Rovers
yuvalfra
06-11-04, 16:10
Well it looks like the successful run is not going to stop just yet. Chelsea,
Liverpool appear to be safe. Southhampton and Totenham are safe.
Norwich probably lost, and Arsenal yet to be played. So surely another
profitable line of bets...
I'm going to start placing my money where my mouth is next week I

think, this is enough evidence for me. Shame I haven't done that so far :(
iozell
06-11-04, 16:13
but i lose....
yuvalfra
06-11-04, 16:42
OK, results are in... I will update Arsenal when the match over there will
be over (no pun intended lol)

OVER 2.5 @ 2.32 [value] :D
C Palace v Arsenal
OVER 2.5 @ 1.84 :(
Chelsea v Everton
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.85 :D
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.80 :D
Norwich v Blackburn
OVER 2.5 @ 2.10 :(

OVER 2.5 @ 2.32 [value] :D
OVER 2.5 @ 2.32 [value] :D
CURRENT:

Staked: 600
OVERALL:

Value bets: 5/6
New bank: 2,308(130% profit)
romi
06-11-04, 16:51
OK, results are in... I will update Arsenal when the match over there will
be over (no pun intended lol)

OVER 2.5 @ 2.32 [value] :D
Chelsea v Everton
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.85 :D
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.80 :D
Norwich v Blackburn
OVER 2.5 @ 2.10 :(

OVER 2.5 @ 2.32 [value] :D
OVER 2.5 @ 2.32 [value] :D
CURRENT:

Staked: 600
OVERALL:

Value bets: 5/6
:D Cheers,Great !!!Come on !
dickiebow
06-11-04, 17:07
Great picks Yuvalfra, doubled your bank in no time well done.
I'll be following your selections with cash, keep em coming.
sazkarik
06-11-04, 18:00
Hi! What about Caen Sochoux i think it is great pick for under isnt it ? I
will check your statistic It look really GRET!
yuvalfra
06-11-04, 18:19
Yep, definitly a good pick. Quite a low odd on betfair, 1.60, but good
enough, but I won't note it down since I gotta go and if I'm doing one
game I'd rather do the rest of the games too, 1 game doesn't reflect the
strategy's efficiency (or disefficiency).
sazkarik
06-11-04, 18:35
I see , so make next list of your picks and we will see if this really work
:))))
yuvalfra
06-11-04, 22:35

:))))
Umm I've been posting like 20 games already :D
But I'll keep posting my picks, hopefully continuing this nice run.
Tomorrow there are many games - Prempiership, Serie A, Primera...
sazkarik
07-11-04, 13:55
[quote=dickiebow]Great picks Yuvalfra, doubled your bank in no time well
done.
:))))
Umm I've been posting like 20 games already :D
But I'll keep posting my picks, hopefully continuing this nice run.
Tomorrow there are many games - Prempiership, Serie A,

Primera...[/quote
So what do you suggest today ?
lsorin
07-11-04, 14:26
let's say from your formula we have a statistical average on over/under of
2.73(i took your explanation match -first example u posted Fulham -
Liverpool) how do we determine the value of this bet if the bookmaker
offers let's say Under 1.90 Over 1.80, I'm interested in all those percent
calculation or what if the bookmaker offers under/over - 1.80/1.90?
Great work keep up the good job!
yuvalfra
07-11-04, 16:44
Argh, unfortunately I didn't come back home in time to post today's picks,
but I still have a few games left.
lsorin - if all the stats imply of under or over then usually I will bet it no
matter what the odd is, unless it is really low like 1.60 or 1.70, then I will
decide wether it is worth it or not.
TomPearce
07-11-04, 16:44
i got good odds of 1.9 on newcastle game having 2.5 or more goals in it.
it finished 1-4. the way i worked this out was how many goals newcastle
score and concede at home, and how many fulham score and concede
away on average. then add these 2 numbers together and divide by 2. is
this the same way as you do it or slightly different. in this case the games
average goals was 3.4?
yuvalfra
07-11-04, 16:46
Mine is slightly different.
As you said I calculate the scored/conceived amount for Newcastle and

Fullham, and then I check what's the "minimum" amount of goals
according to the stats and what's the "maximum" amount (read in my
initial post). Then I caluclate the average and check all the stats to see
what they mean.
yuvalfra
07-11-04, 16:53
AC Milan v Roma
OVER 2.5 @ 2.04
Malaga v Real Madrid

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90
Atl Madrid v Zaragoza

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.76
Paris St-G v Marseille

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.64
TomPearce
08-11-04, 13:39
another 3/4 which is not bad apart from that the only game i choose to
stake on was the one that lost but still.
yuvalfra - i also find that Ladbrokes is best to find averages on goals

scored and conceded both home and away, this saves a lot of time instead
of caculating it all the time.
yuvalfra
08-11-04, 14:06
Thanks TomPearce, I'll check it out.
Unfortunately it wasn't 3/4 but 2/4. Milan and PSG were lost bets due to
unpredictable circuimstances (Shevchenko playing only one half, Marseille
getting a red card).
AC Milan v Roma
OVER 2.5 @ 2.04 :(
Malaga v Real Madrid

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90 :D
Atl Madrid v Zaragoza

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.76 :D
Paris St-G v Marseille

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.64 :(
CURRENT:

Staked: 400
Overall: -34 (9% loss)
OVERALL:
22 won bets, 8 lost bets (73% accuracy)

lOZ
08-11-04, 14:10
Firslty, thanks for the entertaining thread Yuvralfa and hte time you've
put in to explaining your method.
Do you have any preferred leagues that you will play under/over? I am
guessing that the best leagues would be tose where there is a fairly equal
spread of high and low scoring games.
btw, hwere are you from?

yuvalfra
08-11-04, 14:16
You're welcome lOZ, since I really saw potential in this method I knew
some others bettors could benefit from it surely. I found no reason to
keep it a secret as some people do and then try to sell their "formula". I
just hope this is no coincidence and using this strategy consistantly will
continue to produce profit.
To answer your questions, I prefer leagues with not so many goals.

Indeed so far I've had success with the Danish league, but I doubt that
would continue in the long run. Leagues like the Danish one, Bundesliga
and others are way too unpredictable. I prefer leagues like Spain and
England, I've yet to evaluate the Italian Serie A. As for your second
question - I'm from Israel :)
Porto v Sp Lisbon
OVER 2.5 @ 2.30 [value]
Pescara v Empoli
OVER 2.5 @ 2.22
lOZ
08-11-04, 15:10
Its funny how sometimes the simple methods can produce really good
results.
Of course no system is perfect, but the short term results certainly are
very promising and seem to suggest that there is something working with
your method.
lOZ
08-11-04, 17:08
Yuvralfa, how far back do you go when using the goals for and against in
your calculations. i.e. do you just use data from the last 5,10,15 matches
for each team, or, do you just take the data from the entire season?
thanks
Jesp
08-11-04, 17:59
Sorry Yuvralfa I'm a bit confused as to how you selected the Leicester -
Coventry game as one of your picks.
I make it that Leicester have scored seven and conceded eight from their
eight home games so far, thus giving an average of 1.875 goals per
game, whereas Coventry have scored eleven and conceded eighteen from
their eight away games giving an average of 3.625 goals per game. Why
with these two stats contradicting themselves do you still have it as a
pick?
Great thread and I hope results carry on looking good!
yuvalfra
08-11-04, 18:14
Sorry Yuvralfa I'm a bit confused as to how you selected the Leicester -
Coventry game as one of your picks.
I make it that Leicester have scored seven and conceded eight from their
eight home games so far, thus giving an average of 1.875 goals per
game, whereas Coventry have scored eleven and conceded eighteen from
their eight away games giving an average of 3.625 goals per game. Why
with these two stats contradicting themselves do you still have it as a
pick?
Great thread and I hope results carry on looking good!
Well, indeed that's a very vague pick. I picked OVER because the average
of both the stats is 2.75, and since 2.10 is a good odd I saw some value in
it, but indeed the stats are not decisive enough, so I will remove the pick.
If I want to test this system the best I need to rely as little as possible on
luck. But, if the odd on OVER would be 2.20 or 2.30, it would be picked as
it is a value bet. I'm removing the pick, thanks for your comment.
TomPearce
08-11-04, 22:55
1 out of 2 tonight, i had a small stake on a double with porto and leister
going over and that paid off. The leister game was hard to call but under
new management players are bound to pull out all the stops to try and
impress him. as for the one that didnt go over tonigh Empoli, again you
said as of yet you havent actually tested the system with italian games
that is why i gave this one a miss as sometimes they can be very
unpredictable.
with odds of 2.10 and 2.20 was quite a nice double
yuvalfra
09-11-04, 00:00
Too bad I removed the Leicester bet, but still at least a profit was made.
Porto v Sp Lisbon
OVER 2.5 @ 2.30 [value] :D
Pescara v Empoli
OVER 2.5 @ 2.22 :(
CURRENT:
1 won bet, 1 lost bet (50% accuracy)
Staked: 200
OVERALL:

TomPearce
09-11-04, 11:35
how about tonights games, i am not sure how your system will fair in the
cup as anything can happen. i think in German W Bremnen will be a high
scoring game and in france, both Nice and Mets will be UNDERS, what do
you recon?
yuvalfra
09-11-04, 14:29
I think I'll leave tonight's games alone, cup encounters are too
unpredictable. Only one bet today:
Blackpool v Wrexham
OVER 2.5 @ 1.90
yuvalfra
09-11-04, 14:31
Yuvralfa, how far back do you go when using the goals for and against in
your calculations. i.e. do you just use data from the last 5,10,15 matches
for each team, or, do you just take the data from the entire season?
thanks
Entire season, which at the moment is 5-8 matches in most leagues.
karan316
09-11-04, 15:16
hey... excellent picks... congratulations on the results so far
you have won yourself another supporter ;)
anyways i was just wondering, what is your strategy for european and cup
games, do you look at last few european/cup games only or all games?
and why?
thanks...
karan316
09-11-04, 15:17
and why?
thanks...
geldrausch
09-11-04, 17:06
yuvalfra
If I did it right
Blackpool tip is:
3,28 2,57 3,71 2,14 2,925
that means 2 close and 3 times over.

Why did you chose it?
Do you give the number of goals at hometeam more value than the goals
of the away-team?
For example :
Longford against Dublin today:
average goals home-team: 0,933 - 1,066 = 1,99 under

average goals away-team: 1,375 - 1,937 = 3,31 over
Min 0,933 - 1,066 = 1,99 under

Max 1,375 - 1,937 = 3,31 over
Min/Max av = 2,65 over
For me nobet, but as we are playing "at home" could we give av goals
home = average Min a plus ?
Thank you
yuvalfra
09-11-04, 18:33
Here are the calculations:
Blackpool - 1.14, 2.14 = 3.28

Wrexham - 1.0, 1.57 = 2.57
minimum = 2.14
maximum = 3.71
average = 2.925
The only number here pointing at under is the minimum value, and that is
2.14 which is not so bad. All the others stats point at OVER, so 1.90 is
good enough for me.
EDIT - I see your point, 2.57 is very close, but I still count it as over. If 4
out of 5 stats point at over, especially the fact the home team's games
end with 3.28 goals make me pick over.
yuvalfra
09-11-04, 18:33
and why?
thanks...
As of yet I haven't picked any cup games, maybe in the future I will try it
out on them and see the results.
geldrausch
09-11-04, 19:29
I have done the calculation for AUSTRIA today:
The numbers are:

1 av Homegoals
2 av Awaygoals
3 Min Goals
4 Max Goals
5 av Min/Max Goals
Leoben - Kapfenberg
1 - 2,125 under
2 - 1,75 under
3 - 1,5 under
4 - 2,375 under
5 - 1,937 under
UNDER 5/5
RESULT 0:1 UNDER -- WON :D
Lustenau - LASK
1 - 2,75 over
2 - 3,125 over
3 - 2,75 over
4 - 3,125 over
5 - 2,9375 over
OVER 5/5
RESULT 4:0 OVER -- WON :D
Untersieben - Gratkorn
1 - 3,375 over
2 - 3,286 over
3 - 2,804 over
4 - 3,857 over
5 - 3,33 over
OVER 5/5
RESULT 1:1 UNDER -- LOST :?
Ried - Altach
1 - 2,125 under
2 - 2,625 over
3 - 2,625 over
4 - 3,125 over
5 - 2,875 over
OVER 4/5 only under 0,376 away from over

RESULT 3:0 OVER -- WON :D
I know games are running, but I wanted to post-perhaps we can see if it

works for Austria 1.Division
I´ll look at results, now ..
Makes 3 from 4 games won -- hm great,isn´t it ??
Fantastic strategie :!: :!: :!: 8O
Magical
09-11-04, 20:28
Congratulations Yuvalfra for your system !!!
it work for the moment.
the right test will be at pick #100
but i'm sure that your method will stay up !!!! :wink: :wink:
Good luck yuvalfra for your next picks

geldrausch
09-11-04, 21:23
Blackpool is right, too 8O
cyan
09-11-04, 21:31
i don't undestand how you calculated your min & max
AGF-AAB
AGF at home: 1.6, 1.1, overall 2.7

AAB away: 1.6, 1.8, overall 3.4
min=3.2
max=3.4
avg=3.3
Esbjerg - Brondby
Esbjerg at home: 2.8, 1.5, overall 4.3

Brondby away: 1.8, 0.5, overall 2.3
min=2.0
max=4.6
avg=3.3
according to your first post i calculated this:

AGF-AAB
AGF scored 1,6 - AAB conceded 1,8 -> min 1,6, max 1,8
AGF conceded 1,1 - AAB scored 1,6 -> min 1,1, max 1,6
-> min = 1,6+1,1 = 2,7

-> max = 1,8+1,6=3,4
but in the esbjerg - brondy game everything was calculated fine...
geldrausch
09-11-04, 21:52
He made a mistake !
AGF - AAB must have been calculated as:

1,6 against 1,8 -- attack (home) against defense (away)
and
1,1 against 1,6 -- defense (home) against attack (away)
you have to compare the crossing numbers
That should have given

Min : 1,6 + 1,1 = 2,7 over
Max: 1,8 + 1,6 = 3,4 over
Avg 2,7+3,4 / 2 = 3.05 over
cyan
09-11-04, 21:59
ahh... thanks =)
i was only a little bit confused =)
btw, nice system stats so far =)
yuvalfra
09-11-04, 22:22
Yep, a little mistake.
Blackpool v Wrexham
OVER 2.5 @ 1.90 :D
OVERALL:

yuvalfra
09-11-04, 22:24
Congratulations Yuvalfra for your system !!!
it work for the moment.
the right test will be at pick #100
but i'm sure that your method will stay up !!!! :wink: :wink:
Good luck yuvalfra for your next picks
Thank you :) I disagree with you though. The right test won't be the #100
pick, because since I'm already with a doubled bank (+39%) even if the
system fails, most probably a nice profit will remain at bet 100, and then
you could say the system was "successful". The right test would be when I
start investing money in this, and all you other's who are impressed start
using the system consistantly and report your results (please do), then
we'll know if this strategy is gold, or simply I had a stroke of luck.
yuvalfra
09-11-04, 22:26
Thanks for the time you spent on those calculations, geldrausch. The stats
are quite encouraging!
TomPearce
09-11-04, 22:40
As i said earlier i was loooking tonight @
W Brenmen Over
Nice Under
Mets Under
and added in Blackpool Over
3/4 from this lot so with my nice double last night makes this week look
very promising.
lOZ
09-11-04, 22:45
Well done!
Apart from the Bristol v Tranmere match, I also used your calculation for
the match between Blackpool v Wrexham (over) which ended 4:0. Next
time I will post that information earlier so you guys know.
TomPearce
09-11-04, 22:57
a lot of the forigen games, for example Gatafe in the cup tomorrow,
(which is sure to go over) is not possible for us to bet on cause a lot of the
bookies i use do not do over under on such small games. Shame other
wise i could be raking it in.
lOZ
09-11-04, 23:06
I am with Centrebet and I am sure that they used to have u/o for certain
leagues but dont seem to have that betting option any more. I'm also with
Gamebookers, but can anyone suggest other good bookies for u/o bets.
Thanks.
CG
09-11-04, 23:11
Fonbet and Interwetten have the Getafe match. ;)
yuvalfra
10-11-04, 08:49
Well done!
Well, I picked the Blackpool match as you can see above, but I left
BristolC alone because it was a no-bet (considering the odd offered).
yuvalfra
10-11-04, 09:07
Unfortunately many no-bets in Serie A.
Brescia v AC Milan
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.80
Juventus v Fiorentina
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.96
Parma v Reggina
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.86
Roma v Udinese
OVER 2.5 @ 1.92
Magical
10-11-04, 10:25
About sienne-Lecce :
here stats :
*2/4
* Min : 2.55 max : 3.45
* Moyenne : 3
Possibility of over ??
why do not take ??
geldrausch
10-11-04, 10:52
@yuvalfra
Roma is only a 3 from 5 over plus home-over

I left it out
What is about Livorno -Lazio ? That gives me a clear 5 from 5 under !

I took it as a under.
Did I made a mistake? Have to calc again.

ganza
10-11-04, 11:11
@yuvalfra

I left it out

Could you please explain me what you mean by "Roma is only a 3 from 5
over plus home-over" ??? and similarly "That gives me a clear 5 from 5
under ! " ????
Thanks
Magical
10-11-04, 11:38
@yuvalfra

I left it out

Livorno-lazio : clear 5/5 under ?? are you sure ??
Max=2.40.....
average=2.20...
not clear under.
Roma is ok. (4/5 over) and the only under = 2.40

min= 2.60
max= 3.60
average = 3.10
no problem i think.
lOZ
10-11-04, 11:47
Well done!
Well, I picked the Blackpool match as you can see above, but I left
BristolC alone because it was a no-bet (considering the odd offered).
I got odds of 1.85 from Centrebet (over) for the Bristol match. Are those
odds that bad?
Magical
10-11-04, 11:50
Other sport , but i don't know if it work or not... :roll: :roll:
NBA / New-Jersey @ Philadelphie

Conditions : 5/5 over
OVER 183 @ 2.04
lOZ
10-11-04, 12:24
@yuvalfra

I left it out

Livorno-lazio : clear 5/5 under ?? are you sure ??
Max=2.40.....
average=2.20...
Hi gedralsch
not clear under.
Roma is ok. (4/5 over) and the only under = 2.40

min= 2.60
max= 3.60
average = 3.10
no problem i think.
Hi Geraldsch,
i also calculated only 3/5 over for Roma match.
I think that the Livorno v Lazio match has been left out simply cos the
odds of around 1.65 may be a bit low.
mvinders
10-11-04, 12:39
Gamebookers offers 1,75 for Livorno-Lazio under.
geldrausch
10-11-04, 12:46
@IOZ
it is 3/5
3,8
2,4
2,4
3,8
3,1
but I see, it could be taken :D
Livorno-Lazio is 5/5
2,2
2,2
2,2
2,2
2,2
perhaps too risky for low odds :?:
ganza
10-11-04, 13:17
geldrausch could you please tell me what those figures mean??? :roll:
3/5 over???
3,8 --> 3 Number of goals and 8 ??? please explain don't uderstand u
otherwise.
@IOZ
it is 3/5
3,8
2,4
2,4
3,8
3,1
but I see, it could be taken :D

Livorno-Lazio is 5/5
2,2
2,2
2,2
2,2
2,2
perhaps too risky for low odds :?:
yuvalfra
10-11-04, 14:13
geldrausch, I do not look at how many stats are over/under only, but
rather look at the numbers. If Livorno-Lazio match's stats are 2.20 and
the odd on under is 1.70 I don't think it's worth a pick. And if the only
number in Roma-Udinese which is under is 2.40 then I think it's worth a
pick. I look closely into the stats and compare them to the odd, I don't
use a completely dry formula.
geldrausch
10-11-04, 15:20
@ganza
How you have to calculate is explained in posting #1.

Please read it first. If you have further questions send me a PM,please.
lOZ
10-11-04, 15:53
I am testing the method on one match from the Belgium Jupiler League:
La Louviere v St.Truiden
It seems to me that this is the most "certain" over from games in this
league. Mthe other games are quite uncertain either way. y calculated
stats for the match are:
La Louviere goals playing at home --> 2.67

St Truiden goals playing away --> 3
Max --> 3
Min --> 2.67
Average --> 2.84
Odds from Gamebookers is 1.70 for the over and would probably take
this. Please le me know if I should be wary of u/o picks on Belgium
League matches.
lOZ
10-11-04, 16:04
Also another pick from the Belgium League though the odds on this are
pretty low (1.60 at Gamebookers)
Cercle Bruge v Lierse (over)
Cercle at home --> 3.66

Lierse away --> 3.66
Max --> 3.88
Min --> 3.49
Av --> 3.68
This one is also just for interest and probably wont put money on it at
these odds.
TomPearce
10-11-04, 16:34
Magical
it will be intresting to see if this system will work for the nba espically at
them okks, let us know how it goes.
TomPearce
10-11-04, 20:39
Seria A looking very good after 65 mins, only 6 goals in total out of all the
games and the roma game which you choose over in have 2 of these goal
in it. Juve game is real boring and if won at all will be just by a goal.
yuvalfra
10-11-04, 21:04
Could it still be just coincidence?
Brescia v AC Milan
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.80 :D
Juventus v Fiorentina
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.96 :D
Parma v Reggina
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.86 :D
Roma v Udinese
OVER 2.5 @ 1.92 :D
CURRENT:

Staked: 400
OVERALL:

Bigmouth
10-11-04, 21:22
I too have been following your thread since it started yuvalfra and your
results have been superb to say the least :D
Today was the first day I compiled my own numbers for tonights Serie A
games which came out with the same picks as yours, with the addition of
Livorno - Lazio.
5 out of 5 8O
Well done, again yulvalfra
TomPearce
10-11-04, 22:16
Went for the treble in the end today with odds at 6.56 which payed off.
very nice pay off very much up on the money this week because of this
system, keep up the good work.
yuvalfra
10-11-04, 22:21
Went for the treble in the end today with odds at 6.56 which payed off.
very nice pay off very much up on the money this week because of this
system, keep up the good work.
Excellent! I'm so glad my idea is helping people make money. Hopefully it

will continue this way.
TomPearce
10-11-04, 22:47
not sure baout the games this weekend cause the uk have FA cup fever
but i have worked out the prem games and championship games stats
which i can post if people want me to, let me know if you do?
There are 6 games that are 5/5 this weekend.
Yohawn
10-11-04, 23:11
Dont you guys find the home team's away games and the away team's
home games important?? shouldn't these be taken inot consideration
too??
pedjavp
10-11-04, 23:20
not sure baout the games this weekend cause the uk have FA cup fever
but i have worked out the prem games and championship games stats
which i can post if people want me to, let me know if you do?
There are 6 games that are 5/5 this weekend.

i want to know about these games.thanx
geldrausch
10-11-04, 23:43
@yohawn
No, why??
The home team is playing at home and the away team away.
That is what is interesting because if team "a" for example for 10 times
shots 5 goals at home and 10 times only 1 goal away and is now playing
away, why should be intersting how many goals they score at home?
geldrausch
10-11-04, 23:47
@tom
please give us your calcs.
I will do the calcs for German Bundesliga tomorrow and post it !
Perhaps each of us can choose a league and do the calcs? Would be
easier.
But I know that somebody is working on a script that does the calc for all
european leagues itself.
But he will tell you himself if it is ready!
geldrausch
10-11-04, 23:49
Today I did the calculation for begium and italy
It was 7 out of 8 games that were right ?

From which yuvalfra had 4 out of 4
It is too good to believe :roll: But true :D
smashko
10-11-04, 23:50
I`ve just joined the topic.
Let me see if I get the calculation right :
MESSINA - PALERMO
H Messina 5 3 1 1 11 - 9
A Palermo 5 0 3 2 3 - 6
Messina
g: 11/5 = 2,2
c: 9/5 = 1,8
Palermo
g: 3/5 = 0,6
c: 6/5 = 1,2
So,
av Home = 2,8
av Away = 3,0
min = 1,8
max = 4
av m/m = 2,9
Should be OVER
Am I correct in calculation?
Thanks
geldrausch
11-11-04, 00:23
@smashko
No you made a mistake in adding the 2 home and away-numbers:

Messina HOME is
2,2 plus 1,8 = 4,0
Palerma AWAY is
0,6 plus 1,2 = 1,8
Min is (crossed) 1,2 plus 0,6=1,8

Max is (crossed) 2,2 plus 1,8=4,0
AV m/m is (1,8+4,0)/2 =2,9
Gives 3 times over 2 times under but the home tendency is over and goes
with the "bigger" number
So it is close but you could give it a try with over for 2.0 at betandwin
GPOL
11-11-04, 06:54
Hmmm
Ok, you are right, that's what I used in my calculations as well, but what
Smashko brought up gives perhaps another idea? another set of criteria?
I mean, why not add the average scoring for each team
that is
awaited total (based on home averages): 2,2+0,6 = 2,8
awaited total (based on away averages): 1,8+1,2 = 3,0
which could also give a tendency...
:roll:
Yohawn
11-11-04, 07:17
so tell me if this is right...
Birmingham vs. Everton
Birmingham home:
Scored goals : 4/6 = 0.666

goals received : 5/6 = 0,833
Everton away:
scored goals : 8:6 = 1.333

received goals : 4:6 = 0.666
min avg. = 0.666+0.666 = 1.332

max avg. = 1.333+0.833 = 2.166
average = (1.332+2.166)/2 = 1.749 - UNDER!
what i dont get tho i why i have to cross the numbers - having to plus the
2 highest numbers and the 2 lowest numbers cuz what ever way you do it
the average will be be 1.75... look
(1.333+0.666)+(0.666+0.833) = 3.5/2 = 1.75 - still under
yuvalfra
11-11-04, 08:05
Ofcourse the average stays the same. The min/max average is actually
simply the average of goals of home team and away team. The thing
about using crossing numbers is that you have to determine the min and
the max by using numbers that are actually the same event in relation to
the game at hand (home scored = away conceived or home conceived =
away scored).
Hmmm
Ok, you are right, that's what I used in my calculations as well, but what
Smashko brought up gives perhaps another idea? another set of criteria?
I don't think so, because it would be very common when two teams score
very high, and conceive low amount of goals, and then the stats would be
confusing, many stat contradiction like 4.0 goals and 1.8 goals, or from
the other hand 1.8 goals and 4.0 goals. Analyzing scored goals and
conceived goals together gives the true picture.
yuvalfra
11-11-04, 08:11

OVER 183 @ 2.04
Philadelphia 96 - New Jersey 96 = 192 = OVER 183 8O
etic
11-11-04, 08:22

OVER 183 @ 2.04
Philadelphia 96 - New Jersey 96 = 192 = OVER 183 8O
Yuvalfra, do jo have some "predictions" for Royal league matches?
TomPearce
11-11-04, 08:23
yuvalfra
Nice to see that the NBA worked, maybe it was just lucky but you can
always keep going and see what hapens with it.
It seems that this post is becoming very popular with a lot of people, but
the idea of people posting their own leagues seems likes a good idea.
what leagues are good to use and which are best to aviod. England and
italy seem good, so far.
The Answer
11-11-04, 08:28
Try your strategy on ice-hockey.Maybe it will be work.
Otherwise you and your strategy are magnificent.
Some calculation on today´s Royal league.
lOZ
11-11-04, 11:10
Also another pick from the Belgium League though the odds on this are
pretty low (1.60 at Gamebookers)
Cercle Bruge v Lierse (over) :D
Cercle at home --> 3.66

Lierse away --> 3.66
Max --> 3.88
Min --> 3.49
Av --> 3.68
This one is also just for interest and probably wont put money on it at
these odds.
This match was over like the stats indicated.

the other Belbium match La Louviere v St.Truiden was under :cry: but
we'll keep watching the results for this league over many more matches to
see if a winning trend emerges.
geldrausch
11-11-04, 11:33
@IOZ
Lokeren-Beveren was right,too
mvinders
11-11-04, 12:23
royal league
esbjerg: (2,62 - 1,75) 4,37

vålerenga: (1,46 - 1,23) 2,69
av: 3,53
min: 2,98
max: 4,08
over 5/5, expect 1,80!!!
cyan
11-11-04, 12:44
i've calculated min, max, avg, the goal avgs of boath teams for some
leagues & weekend matches and that are the results:
----------------------------------------------
England - Premier League
5/5:
Charlton-Norwich UNDER
Birmingham-Everton UNDER
4/5:
Liverpool - Crytal Palace UNDER
----------------------------------------------
England - Championship
5/5:
Gillingham - Derby UNDER
Leicester - Sunderland UNDER
Sheffield Utd - Watfort UNDER
West Ham - Brighton UNDER
4/5:
Rotherham - Wolverhampton UNDER
----------------------------------------------
Germany - 1. Bundesliga
5/5:
Mönchengladbach - Nürnberg OVER
Hannover 96 - Mainz OVER
Bochum - Bayern München OVER
4/5:
Wolfsburg - Stuttgart OVER
----------------------------------------------
Spain - Primera Division
5/5:
Deportivo - Levante OVER
Numancia - Sevilla UNDER
Getafe - Malaga UNDER
Espanyol - Santander UNDER
----------------------------------------------
France - Le Championnat
5/5:
Lyon - Nantes UNDER
Marseille - Strasbourg UNDER
Nice - Lens UNDER
Rens - Toulouse UNDER
Sochaux - Istres UNDER
Lille - Monaco UNDER
4/5:
Auxerre - Ajaccio UNDER
Bordeaux - PSG OVER
----------------------------------------------
Holland - Eredivisie
5/5:
Heerenven - Vitesse OVER
NAC - AZ OVER
Utrecht - Roda OVER
4/5:
Den Haag - Roosendal OVER
Ajax- Feyenoord OVER
Groningen - Den Bosch OVER
----------------------------------------------
lOZ
11-11-04, 13:06
@IOZ
Lokeren-Beveren was right,too
thanks. i didnt check that one :roll:
Picard
11-11-04, 13:33
Hello everybody!
I don`t know if this system can work on international matches like
today`s Royal league, but why don`t give it a try!
Brann - Halmstad
Avg Home: 3.53

Avg Away: 2.77
Max Goals: 4.00
Min Goals: 2.30
Avg Max/Min: 3.15
So 4/5 for OVER
GL!
Yohawn
11-11-04, 14:01
@ cyan...
so far i have checked 3 of our calculations and 2 of them are both "only"
4/5...
it's charlton vs. norwich and hannover vs. mainz
here's the hannover...
Hannover home:
goals for : 12:6 = 2

goals against : 4:6 = 0.667
Mainz away
goals for : 10:6 = 1.667

goals against : 13:6 = 2.167
min. average = 2.334 - under

max. average = 4.167 - over
average = 3.251 - over
hannover = 2.667 - over
Mainz = 3.834 - over
it's the min. average which is uner in the other one too...
am i wrong or??
cyan
11-11-04, 14:26
you're wrong:
hannover home scored avg: 2
mainz away conceded avg: 2,17
min1 = 2
max1 = 2,17
hannover home conceded avg: 0,67

main away socred avg: 1,67
min2 = 0,67
max2 = 1,67
min = min1+min2 = 2,67

max = max1+max2 = 3,84
-> avg 3,25
Yohawn
11-11-04, 15:32
then what am i doing wrong??
Yohawn
11-11-04, 16:04
nevermind.. i get it now... :D
Yohawn
11-11-04, 16:05
i wouldn't mind controlling the danish SAS league and possibly lower
danish leagues too...
what you the rest of u??

TomPearce
11-11-04, 18:06
Yohawn you are correct some of Cyan predictions are wrong. This is the
run down of the premiership and championship. How did you decided that
West Ham Brighton was going 5/5 under i do not know.For me this
worked out @ 3/5 going over?
Premiership
Brum vs Everton Under 5/5
Championship
Gillingham vs Derby Under 5/5
Leicester vs Sunderland Under 5/5
Sheff U vs Watford Under 5/5
There are quite a few close 4/5 which i can post if you which but i think i
have this system right, if not them may someone be of help.
yuvalfra are these picks correct?
yuvalfra
11-11-04, 18:12
It's not effective for me to calculate the stats right now, as only tomorrow
there will be stable odds on betfair. You can't rely only on the stats, but
have to compare them to the odds and see what's the best way to go. A
4/5 Under might be a nice value bet at 2.20+ for example, or a 5/5 Under
could be not worthwhile as the odd is 1.6 and the stats are just slightly
under.
So anyway, tomorrow I calculate the stats and will post my picks.
cyan
12-11-04, 05:22
West Ham - Brighton is not incorrect:
West Ham: 9-13-6

Brighton: 9-7-15
West Ham home scored avg: 1,44

Brighton away conceded avg: 1,67
min1 = 1,44
max1 = 1,67
West Ham home conceded avg: 0,67

Brighton away scored avg: 0,78
min2 = 0,67
max2 = 0,78
min=min1+min2=2,11
max =max1+max2=2,44
avg = 2, 28
so, all under....
i've made a programm that calculated everything... so i don't think any of

my picks are wrong
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
you have to take the stats "crossed"
e.g
home scored avg - away conceded avg -> take the min1&max1 value out
here
home conceded avg - away conceded avg -> take the min2& max2 value
out here
->
min = min1+min2
max= max1+max2
GPOL
12-11-04, 08:33
I have also created an excel file, and our results match exactly.
Yet, is it a problem (not mathematically or statistically, as it is obvious
that it all points to an under) that all stats are "near" 2,5?
which perhaps shows that this is on the limit?
Just a question before the match, so that we could comment on that ...
after the match ... :wink:
lOZ
12-11-04, 08:54
please. whoever may have a program to calculate these odds, I would
really like to have a copy. These calculations give me rfinger cramps after
a while :cry: 8O
dickiebow
12-11-04, 09:16
Just to repeat IOZ 's request.
If anyone has a spreadsheet for working the figs out it would be a
godsend.
I'm also getting cramp, backache, eyestrain and brainache.
Many thanks
Picard
12-11-04, 09:36
Hello everybody!
I don`t know if this system can work on international matches like
today`s Royal league, but why don`t give it a try!
Brann - Halmstad
Avg Home: 3.53

Avg Away: 2.77
Max Goals: 4.00
Min Goals: 2.30
Avg Max/Min: 3.15
So 4/5 for OVER
GL!
FT 1:0 Pick Lost!
Maybe it`s better to stick with national competitions only!
Sunsura
12-11-04, 11:30
Hi guys, i made a little script to compute the data for the Portuguese
Super liga.
Here's the result's that look interesting.
Match Estoril vs Académica

Estoril at home: scores 1.75 conceives 1 Total: 2.75
Académica on the road: scores 0.75 conceives 2 Total: 2.75
Min = 1.75 + 0.75 =2.5
Max = 2 + 1 =3
Crossed Average = 2.75
4/5 Over ( it's not 5/5 since one is @ 2.5)
Match Gil Vicente vs FC Porto

Gil Vicente at home: scores 1 conceives 1 Total: 2
FC Porto on the road: scores 1.25 conceives 0.75 Total: 2
Min = 0.75 + 1 =1.75
Max = 1 + 1.25 =2.25
Crossed Average = 2
5/5 Under
I will post updates on result's, and will get odd's from a bookie later.
p.s. Matches changed from 11º round to the 10º round.

cyan
12-11-04, 12:15
so, i uploaded my proggie:
Screenshot:
http://home.arcor.de/cyan2k/uo.jpg
I think it's self explaining.

GP = Games played
GS = Goals scored
GC = Goals conceded
the important things are sum, Stat Min, Stat Max and Stat Avg..
-> you can see a 4/5 Over (only Stat Min <2,5) in the screenshot example
http://home.arcor.de/cyan2k/ou.exe
btw, you need the latest service pack or the VB runtime files to run the
proggie
Picard
12-11-04, 12:26
Hi guys, i made a little script to compute the data for the Portuguese
Super liga.
Here's the result's that look interesting.
Match Sp. Braga vs Estoril
Sp. Braga at home: scores 2 conceives 1.2 Total: 3.2

Estoril on the road: scores 1.4 conceives 1.8 Total: 3.2
Min = 1.8 + 1.2 =3
Max = 2 + 1.4 =3.4
5/5 OVER
Match Guimarães vs U. Leiria

Guimarães at home: scores 1.2 conceives 1.2 Total: 2.4
U. Leiria on the road: scores 1.2 conceives 1 Total: 2.2
Min = 1 + 1.2 =2.2
Max = 1.2 + 1.2 =2.4
5/5 Under
Match Benfica vs Rio Ave

Benfica at home: scores 1.6 conceives 0.4 Total: 2
Rio Ave on the road: scores 0.4 conceives 0.8 Total: 1.2
Min = 0.8 + 0.4 =1.2
Max = 1.6 + 0.4 =2
5/5 Under
Match Nacional vs Marítimo

Nacional at home: scores 1.4 conceives 0.8 Total: 2.2
Marítimo on the road: scores 0.8 conceives 1.4 Total: 2.2
Min = 1.4 + 0.8 =2.2
Max = 1.4 + 0.8 =2.2
5/5 Under
I will post updates on result's, and will get odd's from a bookie later.
p.s. Can someone please check my result's? Im not confident.
These are not the matches of this weekend in Portugal! You made a
mistake man!
yuvalfra
12-11-04, 14:15
so, i uploaded my proggie:
Screenshot:
http://home.arcor.de/cyan2k/uo.jpg
I think it's self explaining.

GP = Games played
GS = Goals scored
GC = Goals conceded
the important things are sum, Stat Min, Stat Max and Stat Avg..
-> you can see a 4/5 Over (only Stat Min <2,5) in the screenshot example
http://home.arcor.de/cyan2k/uo.exe
btw, you need the latest service pack or the VB runtime files to run the
proggie
I think you might have uploaded the wrong file, because I get a program
called "cyan's kleiner <something>" and the results are a mess :)
geldrausch
12-11-04, 14:40
But you can use this as an additional programm.
If it is a 3/5 it shows another aspect :)
cyan
12-11-04, 14:42
hehe... yeah i misspelled the link....
"cyan's kleiner fußballvorhersager" is a programm based on poisson
distribution ^^
btw, i fixed the link... everything should be fine now =)
salas
12-11-04, 15:09
hehe... yeah i misspelled the link....
"cyan's kleiner fußballvorhersager" is a programm based on poisson
distribution ^^
btw, i fixed the link... everything should be fine now =)
Fixed which link? coz i still get this cyan's kleiner fußballvorhersager
proggie .
TomPearce
12-11-04, 15:17
the idea of a caculator is good but i have just tried it for the everton game
which is 5/5 to go under and it says 3/5 going over? how comes?
cyan
12-11-04, 15:17
@salas
the link in page 5 of this thread
or you klick here: http://home.arcor.de/cyan2k/ou.exe (the wrong link

had "uo.exe" instead of the correct "ou.exe")
@tom
yeahh... you have the wrong calculator... please take the link above =)
sry for the troubles i made ^^
TomPearce
12-11-04, 15:21
Signed up to Gamebookers betting online today and they have very good
over under picks for all the major leagues around the globe.
Mark-y
12-11-04, 16:42
The max/min that come out seem very wrong, 1 min and 2 max in the
Tottenham - Arsenal game.
But the avg GS and GC are correct so you could easily make out the last
part by your self.
Sunsura
12-11-04, 16:44
Well, right, i did the calculations for the 11º round, not 10º round. Since
the script does all the stuff auto, i didn't noticed i was getting the URL for
two rounds ahead, not the ahead one.
So, here it comes the result's for the 10º round.
Match Estoril vs Académica

Estoril at home: scores 1.75 conceives 1 Total: 2.75
Académica on the road: scores 0.75 conceives 2 Total: 2.75
Min = 1.75 + 0.75 =2.5
Max = 2 + 1 =3
4/5 Over ( it's not 5/5 since one is @ 2.5)
Match Gil Vicente vs FC Porto

Gil Vicente at home: scores 1 conceives 1 Total: 2
FC Porto on the road: scores 1.25 conceives 0.75 Total: 2
Min = 0.75 + 1 =1.75
Max = 1 + 1.25 =2.25
Crossed Average = 2
5/5 Under
Match Estoril vs Académica 4/5 Over

Match Gil Vicente vs FC Porto 5/5 Under
I will also update my first post.
cyan
12-11-04, 16:51
The max/min that come out seem very wrong, 1 min and 2 max in the
Tottenham - Arsenal game.
But the avg GS and GC are correct so you could easily make out the last
part by your self.
no, they aren't wrong... please read the very first post to check how to
calculate min&max.... it sucks that every second guy sais the calculations
are wrong....
Tottenham: 6 games 5-7 goals
Arsenal: 6 games 13-5 goals
Tottenham scored avg = 0,83

Arsenal conceded avg = 0,83
min1 = 0,83
max1=0,83
Tottenham conceded avg = 1,17

Arsenal scored avg = 2,17
min2 = 1,17
max2=2,17
min= min1+min2 = 2
max= max1+max2 = 3
avg = 2,5
that's exactly that what my proggie calculated

http://home.arcor.de/cyan2k/arsenal.jpg
Mark-y
12-11-04, 17:11
http://upl.silentwhisper.net/uplfolders/upload6/OU.JPG
The one to the right is what i got..
cyan
12-11-04, 17:14
oh yeahh... it's typical for windows xp... it doesn't like visual basic
programms =/
yuvalfra
12-11-04, 17:34
Two bets for today...both indicate OVER in the stats quite consistantly,
and the odd is good enough for me.
Estoril v Academica
OVER 2.5 @ 2.16
Ascoli v Crotone
OVER 2.5 @ 2.16
Magical
12-11-04, 18:21
oh yeahh... it's typical for windows xp... it doesn't like visual basic
programms =/
Cyan, i have the same "problem" that mark-y

how to resolve the problem please ??
thank you
TomPearce
12-11-04, 19:53
yuvalfra which leagues are these in i cant find them anywhere?
CG
12-11-04, 19:57
yuvalfra which leagues are these in i cant find them anywhere?
Ascoli has already started (Serie B), Estoril is Portugal .
yuvalfra
12-11-04, 20:05
I check fixtures at www.soccerstand.com.
'35 in Ascoli-Crotone still 0-0, seems to be the same scenario as Pescara-

Empoli match, maybe it's best to avoid Serie B.
dickiebow
12-11-04, 22:49
Cyan thanks for the proggie , its going to save a lot of time.
Yuvalfra thanks for the system, very generous of you to share it.
Its people like this that make BA the best!!!!
A million thanks!!
jugo
12-11-04, 23:09
yuvalfra, both were under :(
It's because I followed you for the first time...
Jovica S
13-11-04, 00:02
Yuvalfra,
I have one observation to yor over bet on game Ascoli - Crotone. Your
algorithm for tis game is:
1. 2.667
2. 2.667
max:2.833
min: 2.500
average: 2.667
All number is on range 2-3 goals (none of them is not exactly 2 or 3). Use
this I decide to play for this case on my local bokies bet 2 or 3 goals.
For this bet value is about 1.8
I'm playng 3 games on french II division:
1. Klermont - Amiens 1.75
1:0 :cry:
2. Ginjon - Lorien 1.75
2:1 :D
3. Le Man - Nansi 1.8
1:2 :D
I have a program, which I can send evry who is request for me.
romi
13-11-04, 00:12
Yuvalfra,
I have one observation to yor over bet on game Ascoli - Crotone. Your
algorithm for tis game is:
1. 2.667
2. 2.667
max:2.833
min: 2.500
average: 2.667
All number is on range 2-3 goals (none of them is not exactly 2 or 3). Use
this I decide to play for this case on my local bokies bet 2 or 3 goals.
For this bet value is about 1.8
I'm playng 3 games on french II division:
1. Klermont - Amiens 1.75
1:0 :cry:
2. Ginjon - Lorien 1.75
2:1 :D
3. Le Man - Nansi 1.8
1:2 :D
I have a program, which I can send evry who is request for me.
Great,well done and i want to see your program :lol:
roxxor
13-11-04, 02:12
i'm currently testing an improved version of your idea.
of course it's based on your mathmatical aproach, but it
changes according to the league and its teams.
i'm still testing, but so far it looks really sensible and successful.
will tell you about it in a few days...
yuvalfra
13-11-04, 03:06
Well this day had to come some time, but at least I learnt something from
it - stay away from Serie B. About Portugal so far the stats are quite good.
Estoril v Academica
OVER 2.5 @ 2.16 :(
Ascoli v Crotone
OVER 2.5 @ 2.16 :(
CURRENT:

Staked: 200
Overall: -200
OVERALL:

yuvalfra
13-11-04, 03:16
Some picks from tomorrow's afternoon games...
Southhampton v Portsmouth
OVER 2.5 @ 2.42 [value]
Bolton v Aston Villa

OVER 2.5 @ 2.24 [value]
Charlton v Norwich
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90
Birmingham v Everton
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.66
romi
13-11-04, 04:40
OVER 2.5 @ 2.42 [value]
By your strategy it's UNDER :o
Mark-y
13-11-04, 05:51
OVER 2.5 @ 2.42 [value]
Did you not notis the "[value]"?
He thinks that its a value in 2.42 in that game.
Magical
13-11-04, 08:14
http://upl.silentwhisper.net/uplfolders/upload6/OU.JPG
The one to the right is what i got..
Anybody have the solution to resolve this problem please ??
thank you very much :wink:
Yohawn
13-11-04, 09:15
@ yuvalfra
where do u odds at?? i can't find as good odds as u get anywhere...!
Regand
13-11-04, 09:39
@ yuvalfra
where do u odds at?? i can't find as good odds as u get anywhere...!

http://www.betfair.com/
yuvalfra
13-11-04, 10:50
OVER 2.5 @ 2.42 [value]

The stats are borderline (2.50-2.60) and the minimum value is 1.97.
Definitly worth an odd of 2.42.
yuvalfra
13-11-04, 11:03
Some more picks...
SPAIN:
Osasuna v Sociedad
OVER 2.5 @ 2.26
Numancia v Sevilla
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.70
Getafe v Malaga
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.75
Espanyol v Santander
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.68
Deportivo v Levante
OVER 2.5 @ 2.10
GERMANY:
Hannover v Mainz
OVER 2.5 @ 1.76
Wolfsburg v Stuttgart
OVER 2.5 @ 1.83
W Bremen v Leverkusen
Mgladbach v Nurnberg
OVER 2.5 @ 1.82
FRANCE:
Auxerre v Ajaccio
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.80
Bordeaux v Paris St-G

OVER 2.5 @ 2.56 [value]
Bastia v St Etienne
OVER 2.5 @ 2.54 [value]
Marseille v Strasbourg
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.83
Lyon v Nantes
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.76
Nice v Lens
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.67
PORTUGAL:
Gil Vicente v Porto

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.91
Maritimo v Benfica
OVER 2.5 @ 2.44 [value]
Penafiel v Beira Mar

OVER 2.5 @ 2.06
SCOTLAND:
Interesting bet...stats are borderline so worth a shot...
Celtic v Inverness CT
Jovica S
13-11-04, 11:20
Yuvalfra,
Too much risk on games:
Southhampton v Portsmouth OVER - no bet.

1. 2.5
2. 2.6
3. max 3.133
4. min 1.967
5. avg max/min 2.550
Because, oscilation between max and min is big and game maybe go in
any
direction, over or under. One more argument is games for Southempton.
In last time all his game close under 1.5 or over 3.5.
Bolton - Aston Vila OVER - no bet

1. 2.667
2. 2.5
3. max 2.667
4. min 2.5
5. min 2.583
Classic for 2 or 3 goal @ 1.9, but for me no bet.
Reason: Aston Vila play as Southempton. Under 1.5 or over 3.5.
Liverpool v C Palace UNDER - no bet

3. max 2.833
4. min 1.733
Big oscilation and for me no bet.
Charlton - Noric UNDER is OK.
I'm go on match:
Birminghem - Everton UNDER
1. 1.500
2. 2.0
3. MAX 2.0
4. MIN 1.5
5. AVG min/max 1.75
Also:
England Champinship:
Gillingham - Derby UNDER 2.5 (0:2) :D

1. 2.111
2. 2.000
3. 2.444
4. 1.667
5. avg 2.056
Ipswich - Leeds OVER 2.5 (avg is acceptable) (1:0) :cry:

1. 3.333
2. 2.111
3. 3.444
4. 2.000
5. avg 2.722
Leicester - Sunderland UNDER 2.5 (0:1) :D

1. 2.00
2. 1.889
3. 2.00
4. 1.889
5. avg 1.944
Rotherham - Wolves UNDER 2.5 (1:2) :cry:

1. 2.111
2. 2.111
3. 2.778
4. 1.444
5. avg 2.111
Sheffield U. - Watford maybe UNDER 2.5, but for me no bet, because is

tradicional high scores game.
1. 1.556
2. 2.375
3. 2.375
4. 1.556
5. 1.965
West Ham - Brighton UNDER 2.5 (0:1) :D

1. 2.111
2. 2.444
3. 2.444
4. 2.111
5. avg 2.278
yuvalfra
13-11-04, 11:29
Good comments. About Liverpool - you're absolutly right, I misread the
stats. About Bolton and Southhampton - you're wrong, because they are
value bets and are meant to be "risky", both have a good possibility for
OVER and if one of them is won it means profit (both above odd 2). BTW
concerning Soton's last home games (0-0, 0-0), first of all they were
against Birmingham and ManC which are both not high-score-away teams.
And besides, I relate less to the last games, since the system relies on
stats of total goals. I do take note the last few games, but don't
necessarily change my bet if the last few games don't comply with the
bet.
About Birmingham - you're right, I saw the game was a sure under but
was scared of the odd of 1.66, but I will add it, it should be ok.
yuvalfra
13-11-04, 12:04
20 Southampton 1 : 1 Portsmouth :wink:
Detroit
13-11-04, 12:19
hello
yuvalfra, are you sure about Hannover,Wolfsburg and Mgladbach? all 3
matches are over?
yuvalfra
13-11-04, 12:32
According to the stats they're over, I can't assure that will be the result.
So far the accuracy of the system is 70% so I would hope 2 out of the 3
will end in over.
yuvalfra
13-11-04, 21:19
Some results...
Premiership is proven again to be a fantastic league for the system. Spain

disappointing. Germany OK but disappointing as well (possibly leagues
like Bundesliga should be avoided - unpredictable), France with fantastic
results.
ENGLAND:
OVER 2.5 @ 2.42 [value] :D
Bolton v Aston Villa

OVER 2.5 @ 2.24 [value] :D
Charlton v Norwich
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90 :(
Birmingham v Everton
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.66 :D
TOTAL 3/4
SPAIN:
Osasuna v Sociedad
OVER 2.5 @ 2.26 :(
Numancia v Sevilla
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.70 :(
Getafe v Malaga
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.75 :D
Espanyol v Santander
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.68 :(
Deportivo v Levante
OVER 2.5 @ 2.10 :(
TOTAL 1/5
GERMANY:
Hannover v Mainz
OVER 2.5 @ 1.76 :(
Wolfsburg v Stuttgart
OVER 2.5 @ 1.83 :D
W Bremen v Leverkusen
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.50 [value] :(
Mgladbach v Nurnberg
OVER 2.5 @ 1.82 :D
TOTAL 2/4
FRANCE:
Auxerre v Ajaccio
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.80 :D
Bordeaux v Paris St-G

OVER 2.5 @ 2.56 [value] :D
Bastia v St Etienne
OVER 2.5 @ 2.54 [value] :D
Marseille v Strasbourg
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.83 :D
Lyon v Nantes
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.76 :D
Nice v Lens
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.67 :D
TOTAL 6/6
PORTUGAL:
Gil Vicente v Porto

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.91 :D
Maritimo v Benfica
OVER 2.5 @ 2.44 [value] :(
Penafiel v Beira Mar

OVER 2.5 @ 2.06 :D
TOTAL 2/3
SCOTLAND:
Celtic v Inverness CT
UNDER 2.5 @ 3.20 [value] :(
yuvalfra
13-11-04, 21:25
Overview...
CURRENT:

Staked: 2,200
OVERALL:

lOZ
13-11-04, 21:38
@yuvalfra
Sensational results in France and Portugal leagues!
Germany and Spain werent a complete loss - a few close games could
have gone either way.
Jovica S
13-11-04, 21:43
Yuvalfra,
Bingo on French Ligue 1.
8 of 8
Besides your 6, I play
Metz - Caen OVER :D
Rennes - Toulouse UNDER :D
Sochaux - Istres UNDER :D
Also COMBO 7 of 8 with 8 scores and @43.5 :D :D :D
but, not enaugh time to place this post before start games.
yuvalfra
13-11-04, 21:54
Awesome Jovica!!!
yuvalfra
13-11-04, 22:39
I might have spoken too soon about Benfica's match, I noted it as over
since when I posted the results the score was 1-1 and the minute was '15,
but now it's still 1-1 in the 80th minute. Deportivo has ended 1-0 so that's
a lost bet. I gotta go now so I will update the accurate results tomorrow,
hopefully Benfica will finish OVER, but even if not it was still a successful
day.
lOZ
14-11-04, 00:26
Yuvalfra,
Bingo on French Ligue 1.
8 of 8
Besides your 6, I play
Metz - Caen OVER :D
Rennes - Toulouse UNDER :D
Sochaux - Istres UNDER :D
Also COMBO 7 of 8 with 8 scores and @43.5 :D :D :D
but, not enaugh time to place this post before start games.
congrats jovica.
were there good odds for those extra bets u put down and were the stats
fairly safe on them. i didn have time to do da calculations 8O
Jovica S
14-11-04, 00:31
Some results...
Premiership is proven again to be a fantastic league for the system. Spain

disappointing. Germany OK but disappointing as well (possibly leagues
like Bundesliga should be avoided - unpredictable), France and Portugal
with fantastic results.
:(
I think that Germany II maybe good for your sistem.

My experience on friday is:
Greuther Furth - Saarbrucken UNDER (2:0) :D
Munchen 1860 - Oberhausen OVER (5:1) :D
RW Erfurt - Burghausen UNDER (1:0) :D
For sundey:
Aachen - Essen OVER :cry:

Ahlen - Dynamo Dresden OVER :cry:
Aue - Karlsruher OVER :cry:
Duisburg - Cottbus - OVER :cry:
Trier - Frankfurt - OVER :D
Moreover, COMBO 5/5 and COMBO 4/5 on 5 combinations.
yuvalfra
14-11-04, 08:24
Some picks for today...
West Brom v Middlesbrough

OVER 2.5 @ 2.30 [value]
AC Milan v Siena
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.18
Atalanta v Brescia
OVER 2.5 @ 2.30
Fiorentina v Livorno
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.79
Lazio v Bologna
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.82
Lecce v Juventus
OVER 2.5 @ 2.00
Palermo v Sampdoria
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.66
Parma v Chievo
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.72
R Madrid v Albacete
Lille v Monaco
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.66
GPOL
14-11-04, 08:37
OK, just for the sake of the conversation and the experimenting...
I checked also the German II...

So, the match between Aaachen RW Essen caught my eye...
Let's see...
OK, the numbers show over... and perhaps I also see over, yet...
Yet, if we only take into account their last 3 matches overall, then
Aachen shows 2 unders and 1 over (scores 1-0, 2-1, 1-0)
and RW Essen shows 3 unders... (1-1, 2-0, 1-0). So, perhaps over could
prove dangerous?
Well, these matches are home AND away for each team... but, perhaps
we could check, let's say the last 3 matches form..., or we could extend to
more matches, or on the other hand leave this criterion out for all...
OK, let's ... see...
Jovica S
14-11-04, 09:10
Statistics
I'm play this sistem from friday.

Stakes is on my local bokies, because, i'm not play on Internet.
Prize is less, and I'm sure that avaliable best on Internet.
Initial value is 40 Euro.

Every stake on single is 2 Euro.
With sistem I'm play COMBO tickets, who calcultae with single games.
Combo stakes is 1.5-5 Euro, in depend from prize.
Summary:
Single: 50 - 15 loss, 35 won
Commbo: 9 - 3 loss, 6 won
Original bank: 40
New bank: 128.75 (321.87%); Profit 221.67%. :D :D :D
Stake: 123.33; Won 212.08; Profit on stake: 71.96%.

For two days is huge profit
Sorry my bad english.
Jovica S
14-11-04, 11:03

Let's see...
prove dangerous?

Well, this sistem based on statistics information, and this is the FIRST and
primary criteria.
In Germany II on all 5 games is OVER with this algorithm.
For second, criteria, yuvalfra, bet on games where value is big, and this
games is VALUE.
I'm not play this games because on my local bokies, price is small.
I prefer to use tradicional stats for games which is not safe in this sistem.
To Germany II tradicional stats is OK for over to all games.
romi
14-11-04, 11:19
Statistics
I'm play this sistem from friday.
Stakes is on my local bokies, because, i'm not play on Internet.
Prize is less, and I'm sure that avaliable best on Internet.
Initial value is 40 Euro.

Every stake on single is 2 Euro.
With sistem I'm play COMBO tickets, who calcultae with single games.
Combo stakes is 1.5-5 Euro, in depend from prize.
Summary:
Single: 50 - 15 loss, 35 won
Commbo: 9 - 3 loss, 6 won
Original bank: 40
New bank: 128.75 (321.87%); Profit 221.67%. :D :D :D
Stake: 123.33; Won 212.08; Profit on stake: 71.96%.

For two days is huge profit
Sorry my bad english.
That's great,hope you success everyday :D
romi
14-11-04, 11:32
Jovica,what are your picks today?
TomPearce
14-11-04, 13:36
Had a good saturday here is what i did:
Charlton v Norwich <2.5 @ 1.71

Sheffield Utd v Watford <2.5 @ 1.71
Leicester City v Sunderland <2.5 @ 1.71
Gillingham v Derby County <2.5 @ 1.71
Birmingham v Everton <2.5 @ 1.65
Bet with 10 doubles and got 4/5 correct
Also had success with French league in last few weeks so out of pick
choose 6 games and with a small stake betting 12 doubles here is what i
did:
Bastia v St. Etienne >2.5 @ 2.10

Bordeaux v Paris SG >2.5 @ 2.10
Olympic Lyon v Nantes <2.5 @ 1.75
Nice v Lens <2.5 @ 1.50
Marseille v Racing Strasbourg <2.5 @ 1.71
Auxerre v Ajaccio <2.5 @ 1.71
With the 2 value bets this meant that i only needed 4/6 to get a profit,
luckly there was 6/6 right, very good choice. I will be sticking with French,
and english games for a while cause they seem more successful.
Jovica S
14-11-04, 15:38
Bad luck on Germany II.
1/5 ...
romi
14-11-04, 15:43
Bad luck on Germany II.
I find it is better to avoid picks from most of the II div...
Too many uncertain things there.
mighty-duck
14-11-04, 16:11
bad luck on serie A
2/7 .....
yuvalfra
14-11-04, 19:21
Bad bad day...Will post results after Lille-Moncao.
Jovica S
14-11-04, 19:48
bad luck on serie A
2/7 .....
I don' understand why on Serie A 2/7, I have 3/6:
Atalanta - Brescia :cry:

1. 3.0
2. 3.0
3. 3.4
4. 2.6
5. 3.0
OVER; score: 0:0
AC Florenz - AS Livorno :D
1. 2.2
2. 2.4
3. 2.4
4. 2.2
5. 2.3
UNDER; score: 1:1
Palermo - Sampdoria :D
1. 1.4
2. 1.6
3. 2.0
4. 1.0
5. 1.5
UNDER; score: 2:0
Udinese - Messina
1. 2.6
2. 2.4
3. 2.6
4. 2.4
5. 2.5
NO BET; Score 1:1
Lecce - Juventus :cry:

1. 4.4
2. 2.6
3. 5.0
4. 2.0
5. 3.5
4/5 OVER; Score: 0:1
Lazio - Bologna
1. 2.0
2. 2.0
3. 2.0
4. 2.0
5. 2.0
UNDER. Yesterday on same situation (all 5 is equal 2) game Charlton -
Noriwich score is OVER (4:0).
Score: 2:1
Reggina - Roma
1. 2.0
2. 3.4
3. 3.4
4. 2.0
5. 2.7
3/5 OVER, but for me no bet, because I'm wrong on game Ipswich - Leeds
(1:0).
score: 1:0
Cagliari - Inter :D
1. 1.667
2. 3.5
3. 3.5
4. 1.667
5. 2.583
3/5 OVER; Score 3:3
Parma - Chievo :cry:
1. 2.0
2. 1.6
3. 2.0
4. 1.6
5. 1.8
UNDER; Score 2:2
Milano - Siena
1. 2.667
2. 1.833
3. 2.667
4. 1.833
5. 2.250
UNDER, but for me no bet. Milano is so strong, and never know how goal
his scored against team from bottom of table
score 2:1
I'm today out of home mostly time, and don't place bets. This good for all.
Mostly games ended bad.
Only pick on Spain Segunda save money.
mighty-duck
14-11-04, 20:29
Some picks for today...
West Brom v Middlesbrough

OVER 2.5 @ 2.30 [value]
AC Milan v Siena FAILED

UNDER 2.5 @ 2.18
Atalanta v Brescia FAILED

OVER 2.5 @ 2.30
Fiorentina v Livorno SUCSESS

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.79
Lazio v Bologna FAILED

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.82
Lecce v Juventus FAILED

OVER 2.5 @ 2.00
Palermo v Sampdoria SUCSESS

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.66
Parma v Chievo FAILED

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.72
R Madrid v Albacete
Lille v Monaco
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.66
-------------------------------------------
milan Under Failed
Atlanta Over Failed
Fiorentina Under Sucsess
Lazio Under Failed
Juve Over Failed
Palermo Under Sucsess
Parma Under Failed
2/7
mighty-duck
14-11-04, 20:34
ok so here is some statistics might help choosing the leagues to use this
method or whatever you need it for.
ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE

---------------------------------
Goals Per Game - 2.62

Matches > 2.5 goals 48.0 %
Matches < 2.5 goals 51.9 %
Spanish La Liga
--------------------
Goals per match 2.21
Italy Serie A
----------------
Holland Casino
-------------------
Germany Bundesligue
--------------------------
France League
-----------------
hope this help's with anything at all.
TomPearce
14-11-04, 20:54
nice stats there mighty ducks, i cant believe that the french league have
60% of games going over! they always seem like low scoring games to
me most of the time.
2/7 has now become 2/8 cause Real Madrid have just won 6-1, very much
over. i always avoid real madrid cause they are very unpredictable, some
weeks they go out and are happy with the odd goal other weeks they go
out with a point to prove this week was obviously one of them, thats why i
stay well clear of any bets on them.
TomPearce
14-11-04, 20:56
yuvalfra probably one of the worst days today, were that stats close today
or we they looking good, anyway this thread is now becoming very
popular of 10000 people viwed it now, good on you!
Regand
14-11-04, 20:58
http://www.regand.com/soc/ I hope this tool/script will help you with
selecting the best picks. Some of you have tested it allready and use it
also i think all bugs are removed.
If you wish that i shoud add a other league please send me a PM or send
a msg at ICQ. :)
TomPearce
14-11-04, 21:43
Regand again very good system, which makes it very easy, but you have
just added up both the home and away goals which you really need to
keep seperate to make it more accurate. Other than that they site looks
very helpful. the english championship would be nice.
looking at bets tonight again French league looks very promising. out of 9
picks 3 were right tonight, last night 6/6 for french league and again
tonight 1/1. still looking good though.
pedro
14-11-04, 23:21
I like to add some NBA tipps for tonight again, which i calculated with
Jovica´s Calculator !!! (Thanks Jovi :D )
Seattle - Memphis Under 193
Sacramento - Denver Under 200,5
Cya
yuvalfra
15-11-04, 01:22
yuvalfra probably one of the worst days today, were that stats close today
or we they looking good, anyway this thread is now becoming very
popular of 10000 people viwed it now, good on you!
Most of the picks were pretty good. I guess I could have avoided Real, but
I'm just trying to stick to the system as much as possible, which means
rely more on stats and less on judgement and by the stats it was a good
pick.
I know it sounds funny but possibly the reason it went so bad in Serie A
was the fact some of the matches had heavy rain, like Lecce-Juventus
where the match could hardly take place as it was so damp.
yuvalfra
15-11-04, 01:29
Worst day so far for the system. Accuracy getting closer to 60% after
staying around 70% for 30-40 bets. Hopefully as the picks continue the
accuracy will remain above 60% which is still spectacular.
CURRENT:

Staked: 900
Overall: -259
OVERALL:

Macot
15-11-04, 01:30
The weather will be a major factor now, not only in Italy, so I am a bit
afraid of Over/Unders now... we should check weather first when we place
the bet...
:?
GL!
IolaoBet
15-11-04, 02:59
The weather will be a major factor now, not only in Italy, so I am a bit
afraid of Over/Unders now... we should check weather first when we place
the bet...
:?
GL!
Indeed! I avoided betting over on Lecce - Juventus because I knew field

was almost unplayable.
GPOL
15-11-04, 07:25

Let's see...
prove dangerous?
Hm...
Now, after the matches are over in Germany
and checking the results... I have to bring again this idea up...
I checked yesterday the matches and using the last 3 form, plus the
history... I chose only two of them for overs. That is Frankfurt and
Duisburg. In fact only the Frankfurt match pointed to an over in ALL
coefficients, whereas Duisburg had not a convincing last 3 matches form,
but I decided to bet over in Duisburg due to last years' 4-2 score...
Well, if we want to be perhaps more picky, more cautious etc, perhaps we

could filter our results through the last 3 form, plus h2h history...
Jovica S
15-11-04, 09:21
Conclusion
Hi all
First I must say: THIS IS VERY GOOD SYSTEM, who is help to determinate
game OVER or UNDER.
Look thtough one or two league, for this system isnt good.
League like French I, Freench II, Spain Segunda, Bundesliga I, England
Champinship, Italy I, are very predictable this year (under, over). This
fact is well-know to me. With this system, is possibly to find which games
is not good to play.
I put many sugestion on England Premier and stay on this. This league is
unpredictible for me, but with this system I think that may be change.
Also, Italy I is provide very good results on wednesday, but on sunday
bad.
This not be a problem because, with time, number of score must be
minimum 70% games. For me that conclusion is for all specify.
You don't leave league like Italy II, Bundesliga II (on friday is good, on
sunday bad)...
On Spain Primera, I love to play adversely. If stats say UNDER, I got
OVER... Yuvalfra this call "value" because value, generally, is very good.
But I think this is not (or yes) good for system.
I treat over 150 games for 3 days, and play 84 with 16 COMBO. Stats will
be today.
TomPearce
15-11-04, 09:58
pedro 1/2 for your NBA games last night
lOZ
15-11-04, 11:00
selecting the best picks. Some of you have tested it allready and use it
also i think all bugs are removed.
If you wish that i shoud add a other league please send me a PM or send
a msg at ICQ. :)
@Regand
Thanks for the excellent stats site.
Jovica S
15-11-04, 14:06
Overview...
CURRENT:
84 bets
16 combo
SUNDAY
29 bets: 15 won; 14 lost
7 combo: 2 won; 5 lost
summary:
Staked: 80 euro;
Overall: -15 (-18.75% on staked and -37.5% on original bank)
Overall (for 3 days):

78 bets: 46 won 32 lost
16 combo: 8 won 8 lost
(60% accuracy)
Original bank: 40 euro
New bank: 113.1 (182.75% profit)
Staked: 204
won: 277.1 (profit 35% on staked)
Before, I make mistake on counting games, but calculating money is

good.
Now it's correct.
"Regand wrote:
selecting the best.."
Very, very good site
eirebhoy
15-11-04, 14:35
Do you think Over > 2.5 on Unterhaching v Koln tonight at 1.70 is a
decent bet?
lOZ
15-11-04, 14:40
Hi Eireboy,
I am having a small punt on that match (over). The stats seem to indicate
a clear over for all stats, but then again, if u see Reganda's stats site, the
over is only 3/5 over using stats from last three matches played.. so could
be a little less confident on an over. anyway, I think if you can get over
1.75 its certainly worth a try.
Jovica S
15-11-04, 14:40
Today:
Sambenedettese - Avellino UNDER @1.45 :D

Brest - Dijon UNDER @1.6 :D
Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimaraes UNDER @1.65 :D
With COMBO @3.83 :D

Unterhaching - FC Cologne OVER. @ 1.55 :D
To risk, but who know.
SuperGreek
15-11-04, 17:07
The price for the over in Hacking's game you suggest is ridiculously low!
You can find 1,88 to 1,90 @ Betfair and 1,72 @ Centrebet. Also, very nice
offer is 2,06 @ Pinnacle for the over 2,75 bet! Best Regards.
yuvalfra
15-11-04, 17:32
Good enough for me.
Unterhach. v FC Koln
OVER 2.5 @ 1.90
yuvalfra
15-11-04, 17:35
P.S I have to comment on Regand's site as well. I've been using it ever
since it was beta, and now it's gone through so many improvements and
is pretty much a perfect script for calculating the stats. Much thanks to
him!
Jovica S
15-11-04, 17:36
I'm saying before that I play on my local bokies, not on Internet, and the
price is that. I not place price on my next pick.
Jovica S
15-11-04, 17:37
yuvalfra,
I have idea to aplly this system for WC 2006 on next round.

Input data for algoritham it's total goals on qualification.
Example:
3. group
Rusija - Estonija
Russland 3 1 1 1 6:8
Estland 4 2 1 1 8 7
1. 3.750
2. 4.667
3. max 4.417
4. min 4.0
5. avg 4.208
OVER?
2. group
Turkei - Ukraine
Turkei 4 1 3 0 6:2
Ukraine 4 2 2 0 6:3
1. 2.0
2. 2.250
3. 3.0
4. 1.250
5. avg 2.125
UNDER?
pedro
15-11-04, 18:43
Today no Values ???
I see big value in :
Brest - Dijon Over 2,5 @2,1
It is a 2 or 3 goal game, so 3 could happen ! And i go over 2,5 tonight and

take the value with me :wink:
Good luck !
eirebhoy
15-11-04, 19:43
What is the difference between Over 2.5 and over 2.75?
Macot
15-11-04, 20:04
What is the difference between Over 2.5 and over 2.75?
If three goals are scored, in first example (2,5) you get all winnigns and in
second example (2,75) only half...
:wink:
eirebhoy
15-11-04, 20:21
If three goals are scored, in first example (2,5) you get all winnigns and in
second example (2,75) only half...
Oh, Cheers.
Its 2-1 Koln BTW with 64 minutes gone so I got that bet in. :D
yuvalfra
15-11-04, 20:22
Successful...
Unterhach. v FC Koln
OVER 2.5 @ 1.90 :D
CURRENT:

Staked: 100
Overall: +90
OVERALL:

Mark-y
15-11-04, 20:54
Nice play in Germany to day for most it looks like.
Lets just hope for the Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimaraes to end under 2.5.
its 0-0 at the moment.
Jovica S
15-11-04, 21:17
Very nice,
3 score, without loss

Waiting...
Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimaraes 1:0 HT
mighty-duck
15-11-04, 21:46
i must understand
how do you calculate it for NBA ?
by what stats ? on from where ?
thanks
Jovica S
15-11-04, 21:52
i must understand
how do you calculate it for NBA ?
by what stats ? on from where ?
thanks
I'm not bet on basketball
mighty-duck
15-11-04, 21:54
okay .
anyone who DID try it ?
anyone like this ?
i have seen some picks on nba
thanks
Jovica S
15-11-04, 22:01
89'
Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimaraes 1:1
:roll:
Jovica S
15-11-04, 22:20
Successful day.
All 5 games. :D :D :D
pedro
15-11-04, 22:23
Ok, trying again some NBA Action
Cleveland - Golden State Over 180,5
New Jersey - Houston Under 171
So far Picks 2, Correct 1
How to calculate ?? Do it the same as you calc soccer !!
Good luck !
Jovica S
15-11-04, 22:25
Successful day.
6/6
4 single, and 2 COMBO. One combo you see and second COMBO it's
system 4/5 with game Opava - Liberec UNDER :D
With 5 score - @6.83.
:D :D :D
TomPearce
15-11-04, 22:49
Jovica S & yuvalfra
successfull days again, didnt find time to get on and bet today but maybe
next time, keep it up.
TomPearce
15-11-04, 22:54
Jovica S looking at your world cup games, much like the english FA cup,
not sure if i will bet on them but maybe be worth seeing if the system
works on them first hand. cause this system has not been tested in the
cups as of yet
Jovica S
15-11-04, 23:08
Overview...
CURRENT:
82 bets
18 combo
Overall:

New bank: 153.59 (284% profit) :D
mighty-duck
15-11-04, 23:43
Good luck !
where do you find this statistics ?
for scoring home games and away games ?
i cant seem to find it
or even tough maybe i dont know i have
:oops:
lOZ
16-11-04, 00:14
Good luck !
:oops:
You can find home/away points stats for these teams at www.livescore.cc
Just follow the links.
mighty-duck
16-11-04, 08:47
Good luck !
:oops:
You can find home/away points stats for these teams at www.livescore.cc
Just follow the links.
thanks for the link

you got both of the right
thats 3\4 now
superdzik
16-11-04, 11:34
http://interwetten.enetpulse.com/index.php?s=1&lang=en&id=&g=all&g_
m=ts&g_i=&l=&c=&live=true&result
that's better site
romi
16-11-04, 13:55
by the Under/Over strategy
Malta U21 0 - 2 Hungary U21 UNDER :D

Cyprus U21 0 - 0 Israel U21 UNDER :D
romi
16-11-04, 14:05
Georgia 21 - Denmark 21 OVER
Luxembourg 21 - Portugal 21OVER
Germany 21 - Poland 21 OVER
Belgium 21 - Serbia & Mont. 21 OVER
Jovica S
16-11-04, 15:31
Feucht - Wehen OVER :cry:
Obi Worgl - Karnten OVER :cry:
Turkey - Ukraine U21 UNDER :D
Belgium - Serbia & Montenegro U21 OVER :D
Mark-y
16-11-04, 15:50
Wörgl - FC Kärnten Over or Under?
Wörgls last 3 games at home have only seen 2 goals, 1-0, 0-0 and 0-1
But then FC Kärnten conced and score goals in masive numbers, 4-10 in
the last 3.
mighty-duck
16-11-04, 16:11
by the Under/Over strategy
Malta U21 0 - 2 Hungary U21 UNDER :D

Cyprus U21 0 - 0 Israel U21 UNDER :D
Israel Won 1-0

its under , but hey ... dont take that away fomr the guys.
:D
Jovica S
16-11-04, 16:57
the last 3.
I'm go over and
Germany - Poland U21 UNDER value :D
mighty-duck
16-11-04, 18:19
okay so here is some NBA
its all based on the Under Over Proggie.
all picks are followed by AVARGE STATS that came Not High Or Low.
Seatttle - UNDER 199

Utah - Under 192
Houston - Over 181
Miami - Under 188
Knicks - Under 185.5
Dallas - Over 213.5
Kings - Over 197
Clippers - Over 198.5
all u/o is from Victor Chandler.
results coming up ......

good luck
Mark-y
16-11-04, 18:37
the last 3.
I'm go over and
Germany - Poland U21 UNDER value
I went under just before kick off now in halftime it 0-0..but its 45min
more to play and Wörgls have one player sent off.
Magical
16-11-04, 20:49
okay so here is some NBA
its all based on the Under Over Proggie.
all picks are followed by AVARGE STATS that came Not High Or Low.
Seatttle - UNDER 199
Utah - Under 192
Houston - Over 181
Miami - Under 188
Knicks - Under 185.5
Dallas - Over 213.5
Kings - Over 197
Clippers - Over 198.5
all u/o is from Victor Chandler.
results coming up ......

good luck
is the yuvalfra strategie ???

If yes,...... 8O 8O 8O 8O
If no,In wich calculs do you find your Over-Under please ?
thank you mighty-ducks :wink:
mvinders
16-11-04, 20:50
sorry, mighty-duck. I am getting different results on the over-under NBA.
For eksampel LA: LA at home: 196,5. Toronto away: 195,25. Av 196. Min
187,7, max 204. I took this game as an under at expekt (odds 2,00). Am
I doing something wrong? or is it you?
mighty-duck
16-11-04, 21:04
LA AT HOME
L. A. Clippers 2 1 0 1 210-183
Toronto Away.
Toronto Raptors 4 1 0 3 385-396
Min 196.5
Max 294.25
AVG - 245.38
Using the program
GP - 2 GS 210 GC 183
4 385 396
right ?
mvinders
16-11-04, 21:18
I can't understand your max 294.25.
I am counting this way.
LA at home 196,5 per game (105 - 91,5).
Toronto away per game 195,25 (96,25 - 99).
Av: 196,5 + 195,25 / 2 = 195,87.
Min (91,5 + 96,25) 187,75.
Max (105 + 99) 204.
Expekt offered under 199.
CG
16-11-04, 21:24
LA AT HOME
L. A. Clippers 2 1 0 1 210-183
Toronto Away.
Min 196.5
Max 294.25
AVG - 245.38
Using the program
GP - 2 GS 210 GC 183
4 385 396
right ?
Mighty Duck, the program is not correct. I already pointed this out to
Cyan but he hasn't replied. The stats that mvinders wrote ARE the correct
ones. Try working it out by hand with pen and paper and you'll see what I
mean GC Avg for team 2 is 99 NOT what you wrote.
Jovica S
16-11-04, 22:11
Huh,
Test on representation U21 it's excelent:
5/5
Georgia 2 : 4 Denmark U21 OVER :D
Turkey 1 : 0 Ukraine U21 UNDER :D
Germany 1 : 1 Poland U21 UNDER value :D
Belgium 4 : 0 Serbia & Montenegro U21 OVER :D
U-21: Friendlies:
Spain 1 : 0 England UNDER :D
Overview...
Overall:

New bank: 152.42 (281% profit)
pedro
16-11-04, 22:31
Hey guys take Jovicas calculator. It works perfect under XP !
Make not the mistake and calc every NBA game for tonight.
In Nba you must have a look to the form of the teams !! Sure when you
calc all, there will be 50% right, but if you look how good there scoring
form is you can drop some games.
Maybe i post one or two tonight, but only if i think they are real good to
play over/under !!! :wink:
Cya
TomPearce
16-11-04, 22:45
yuvalfra and Regands systems are slightly different, this is because
Regands system doent cross the numbers over like yuvalfras does. not
sure how accurate this makes Regands findings. What do you thnik?
mighty-duck
16-11-04, 23:08
LA AT HOME
L. A. Clippers 2 1 0 1 210-183
Toronto Away.
Min 196.5
Max 294.25
AVG - 245.38
Using the program
GP - 2 GS 210 GC 183
4 385 396
right ?
Mighty Duck, the program is not correct. I already pointed this out to
Cyan but he hasn't replied. The stats that mvinders wrote ARE the correct
ones. Try working it out by hand with pen and paper and you'll see what I
mean GC Avg for team 2 is 99 NOT what you wrote.
what i wrote is not the AVG its the statistics of the teams.
the conceded 183 points in 2 games
scores 210 points in 2 games.
etc etc.....
if you say the application is wrong then it is....

need's to be checked.... by hand and by the app
CG
16-11-04, 23:11
Mighty-Duck, the MAX is 204 NOT 294 as you've worked it out. Forget the
program, try working it out on paper and you'll see that the program is
not working it out correctly.
mighty-duck
16-11-04, 23:19
dont get me wrong
i belive you 100%
it seemed a bit wierd 294 maximum
its very high....
then whats the best pick for tonight ?
CG
16-11-04, 23:21
dont get me wrong
i belive you 100%
it seemed a bit wierd 294 maximum
its very high....
then whats the best pick for tonight ?
LOL, try asking someone who knows something about basketball ;)

mighty-duck
16-11-04, 23:25
its all about statistics
no need to know anything bout bball
yuvalfra
16-11-04, 23:46
From what I've checked it does cross the numbers, doesn't it?
mighty-duck
16-11-04, 23:48
From what I've checked it does cross the numbers, doesn't it?
do you know the proggie is not working well ?
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TomPearce
17-11-04, 07:58
mighty-duck
I thought so much cause when i worked it out on paper and with the
system it seemd to come up with totally different results.
mvinders
17-11-04, 09:45
Succesfull with 4 NBA-games yesterday using "the" method. Therefor I
dare to post this "incredible" OVER 5/5.
Portland - Memphis OVER 182,5 (Pinnacle odds 1,99).
Portland at home (99,5 - 91,5) 191 (only based on 2 games).

Memphis away (96 - 106,7) 202,7 (based on 4 games).
Average for the 2 teams: 196,8
Min (91,5 + 96) 187,5
Max (99,5 + 106,7) 206,2
Without any knowledge of the NBA! Too good to be true. Am I missing

something?
Mark-y
17-11-04, 09:49
Swansea - Darlington under 2.5
Swanseas last 3 home games: 1-0, 1-0 and 1-0
The statistic also shows for under 2.5 for Swanseas all 8 home games and
Darlingtons all 8 away games.
lOZ
17-11-04, 10:06
@yuvalfra
Without wanting to get too technical, I have been wondering about where
you may have originally found the idea for your method. I mean, it seems
fairly simple in hindsight, but is there any particular statistical/maths
theory behind it. Doing the calculations reminds me a bit of matrix theory
in maths...which I was not much good at anyway.
@Regand
Is it possible to put the NBA stats up on your site too.

thx
Jovica S
17-11-04, 11:43
Today:
Armenia - Romania OVER :cry:
Rep. of Macedonia - Czech Republic OVER :cry:
Cyprus - Israel UNDER :cry:
Georgia - Denmark UNDER :cry:
Belgium - Serbia & Montenegro UNDER :D
mighty-duck
17-11-04, 12:14
where did you find this statistics ?
lOZ
17-11-04, 12:42
Lets see how this works on Russian Ice Hockey Matches.....
Usually I get these picks wrong for Russian Ice Hockey, but it will be
interesting to see if this method can make some sense of determining
likely u/o.
Molot (11) 11-29

Salavat (11) 19-37
Average Away goals: 3.63

Average Home goals: 5.09
Max: 5.99
Min: 2.72
Ave Max-Min: 4.35
No bet.
****************
AK BARS KAZAN (11) 33-17

LOKOMOTIV JAROSLAVL (12) 31-20

Max: 5.58
Min: 3.36
Ave Max-Min: 4.47
Most likely outcome --> Over 4.5

****************
NEFTEHIMIK NIZNEKAMSK (11) 30-22

SPARTAK MOSCOW (13) 21-37

Max: 5.36
Min: 4.34
Ave Max-Min: 4.85
Most likely outcome --> Over 4.5

****************
SEVERSTAHL CHEREPOVETS (13) 26-16

METALLURG MAGNITOGORSK (11) 25-20
Max: 3.04
Min: 4.27
Ave Max-Min: 3.65
Most likely outcome --> Under 4.5

****************
CSKA MOSCOW (11) 29-22

LADA TOLJATTI (11) 17-22

Max: 4.64
Min: 3.54
Ave Max-Min: 4.09

****************
SKA ST PETERSBURG (12) 23-23

DINAMO MOSCOW (12) 32-21

Max: 4.58
Min: 3.66
Ave Max-Min: 4.12

***************
SIBIR NOVOSIBIRSK (12) 19-23

METALLURG NOVOKUZNETSK (12) 18-32

Max: 4.58
Min: 3.08
Ave Max-Min: 3.83
:( I won't bother commenting on these results as I was silly enough to

include OT goal stats in this - so the stats would have been distorted.
Apologies if this may have mislead anyone.
yuvalfra
17-11-04, 14:36
mighty-duck
Well, it seems just fine to me. Can you give me an example of when the
stats are different manually and through the site?
@yuvalfra
@Regand

thx
No statistical theory behind the system. Just common sense - I thought

that by crossing the data of goals of the home team and the away team I
would get a good picture of the amount of goals scored in the particular
match. And then I decided I should use the stats I calculated and present
the minimum and maximum amount of goals, according to the stats. That
way I can see how risky the bet would be - by relating to the minimum
and maximum as true borders of the amount of goals possible in the
game.
I didn't think at first it would succeed this much, but obviously it has. I'm
also very surprised to see how well this is working in NBA bets now that
people are trying to implent it to other sports. It's getting clearer every
day that this system is truly a breakthrough, because a stroke of luck can
last only so long...
romi
17-11-04, 14:43
yuvalfra,what will you take today ?
yuvalfra
17-11-04, 15:04
None, I don't touch cup games. I'll leave that to all of you, as I see some
people are applying the system to all sorts of different leagues and
competitions and delivering satisfying results. I'll stick to the major
leagues for now :)
lOZ
17-11-04, 15:14
mighty-duck
@yuvalfra
@Regand

thx

game.
I'm not as surprised perhaps that it has produced some good reults in the
NBA. I mean, in theory, it should really work for most sports given that it
is quite a strict statistical-based approach. I mean today I placed two bets
on the NBA which both turned out correct...and usually my record with
such bets is ordinary to say the least. From the reading hte other posts, it
seems that this method really is making some difference thats for sure.
yuvalfra
17-11-04, 15:44
mighty-duck
@yuvalfra
@Regand

thx

game.
I'm not as surprised perhaps that it has produced some good reults in the
NBA. I mean, in theory, it should really work for most sports given that it
is quite a strict statistical-based approach. I mean today I placed two bets
on the NBA which both turned out correct...and usually my record with
such bets is ordinary to say the least. From the reading hte other posts, it
seems that this method really is making some difference thats for sure.
Well,I'm not completely surprised, since as you said if it works for soccer
due to statistics, why wouldn't it work for other sports? But still you gotta
admit it's still astonishing how adding a couple of numbers can produce
such accuracy. The fact it works for NBA as well just strengthens the
possibility of this system working in the long run (don't forget, 70 bets are
a lot, but there's still some more "proving" to be done). So I guess
surprised is not the right word but rather I'm "delighted" as it helps
proving this system to be effective.
TomPearce
17-11-04, 16:12
yuvalfra
This topic is getting hit so so much recently it just goes to prove how
popular the simplest of systems can be.
geldrausch
17-11-04, 16:48
@yuvalfra
Could you please keep on writing your bets and results at this thread.
I mean the percentages of won tips and won "money".
I test the strategie since the second page of this thread with taking the
4/5 and 5/5 th of the calculated games (all soccer,but different leagues)
and my results are now after nearly 40 bets in the range of winning 60%.
Statistically we should go to 50% as it is a 50/50 bet.

To see if we could outperform in long time, please keep posting your stats
! Thanks a lot
Magical
17-11-04, 17:40
Well,
I think ice hockey give bad results.
The reason is simple : they have much extra time in ice hockey .
statistics are wrong.....
Jovica S
17-11-04, 17:45
where did you find this statistics ?
My bet is based on statistics from newspaper.

That bets may be not work. All teams play a little of games. One, two or 3
games home. This is very low for statistics calculating.
Example how calculating on friendly:
New picks (Friendly):
Italy - Finland OVER :cry:

Italy (group 5):
sum
7:5 - 4 games
home
4 - 2 games
Finland (group 1)
sum
10:6 - 5 games
away
4:5 - 3 games
Calculating sum and home/away I have 10 statistical value:
9/10 it's OVER
France - Poland no bet

6/10 UNDER
4/10 OVER
Spain - England UNDER :D

6/10 UNDER
2/10 OVER
2/10 = 2.5
If I place all my calculating, I never have enought time to bet.
yuvalfra
17-11-04, 20:06
@yuvalfra
Could you please keep on writing your bets and results at this thread.
I mean the percentages of won tips and won "money".
I test the strategie since the second page of this thread with taking the
4/5 and 5/5 th of the calculated games (all soccer,but different leagues)
and my results are now after nearly 40 bets in the range of winning 60%.
Statistically we should go to 50% as it is a 50/50 bet.

To see if we could outperform in long time, please keep posting your stats
! Thanks a lot
I'm still writing my bets - my last one was Unterhaching vs FC Koln (won).
I don't wanna bet on random games - like WC or U21 friendlies, I'm
waiting for good oppurtunities.
Regarding the accuracy - I think 50% is not enough, because probably the
average odd of all the won bets is under 2.0, meaning that 50% equals a
loss. 55-58% is the accuracy I'm seeking in the long run, 60% and over
would be spectacular.
yuvalfra
17-11-04, 20:09
yuvalfra
This topic is getting hit so so much recently it just goes to prove how
popular the simplest of systems can be.
Definitly. Sometimes the best approach to take is right under your nose.
While people are trying and failing random systems with no point, a
simple 1+1 delivers great results :)
BTW - the system has been going for 15 days, hits are approaching
15,000 - that's 1,000 hits a day 8O
mighty-duck
17-11-04, 22:31
any nba picks for tonight ?
i checked 5 games and they all were too close for the line bookie offered.
2 points here or there

and i dont know what to choose
:( 8O
lOZ
17-11-04, 22:59
Well,
@Magical
I forgot about the over time. And you're right, the ice hockey sux for this.
geldrausch
17-11-04, 23:12
But NBA has overtime,too !!
Does it mean it´ll fail,too?
pedro
17-11-04, 23:13
One pick tonight :
Indiana - Atlanta OVER 188
Picks 3, Correct 2 !
GL !! :lol:
Jovica S
17-11-04, 23:15
This day is low. This is maybe expect, after yesterday very good bets on
U21.
Only: 3/8 single and 0/5 COMBO.
Overview...
97 bets: 58 won 39 lost (accuracy 59.8%)


New bank: 132.62 (232% profit) 8)
On yesterday 20 euro less.
lOZ
17-11-04, 23:21
Just some NBA stats I calculaed:
Indiana v Atlanta
Home: 186.6
Away: 193
Max: 201
Min: 178.5
Av: 190
Orlando v Utah
Home: 199.3
Away: 194
Max: 208
Min: 185.3
Av: 197
NJ v Seattle
Home: 163
Away: 197.3
Max: 197.3
Min: 163
Av: 180
Detroit v Minnesota
Home: 178
Away: 186.5
Max: 187
Min: 177.5
Av: 182
good luck
lOZ
17-11-04, 23:24
Well,
come to think of it, the same could be said of NBA, although I must admit,
the OT wont happen as often as in ice hockey
lOZ
18-11-04, 08:04
NBA Success
So far in the past two days I have placed 5 bets on the NBA games and
4/5 have been corretly predicted. 1 match was a push.
I've noticed that in a lot of cases, the calculated stats tend to be

extermely close to the bookies predicted number. Maybe this is
conincidence, perhaps the bookies a slightl;y more sophisticated, but
more or less similar approach to determining the likely total goal score in
an NBA game.
I didn't put bets on any of the games listed above only due to lack of time
to fully analyse the matches, but I did use the method on the Lakers
game and also on the GSW game, and the stats were quite certain (5/5)
for each and both games won.
The Answer
18-11-04, 08:23
Yeah,fantastic success with NBA.So keep on going :)
mighty-duck
18-11-04, 09:11
like he said
the stats and the bookie line is too close...
even tough i placed by the system utha's game

OVER 196.5 and i've won
CG
18-11-04, 09:47
I tried a slightly different angle on NBA last night which gave 3/3. I'll keep
a check on it for the next week or so and post the results in here.
lOZ
18-11-04, 10:47
My calculated stats for tomorrows NBA games:
(points scored in OT not included in the calculations)
********************
Houston v NYN :D
Home team: 178.25

Away team: 190.6
Min: 178.25
Max: 190.6
Av: 184.43
Bookies Line: 178.5
Likely Outcome --> Over at 1.90
*********************
Charlotte v Cleveland
Home team: 203

Away team: 180
Min: 180
Max: 203
Av: 191.5
Bookies Line: 194.5
Likely Outcome --> Too Uncertain
*******************
Philadelphia v Spurs :(
Home team: 195.8

Away team: 199.67
Min: 195.8
Max: 199.67
Av: 197.74
Bookies Line: 188.5
Likely Outcome --> Hmmm, try Under @ 1.90
************************
Remember this is still just testing the method out. But I am very curious
to see what happens still...
CG
18-11-04, 10:56
Mine brings up both Houston and Philadelphia as overs.
lOZ
18-11-04, 11:04
I tried a slightly different angle on NBA last night which gave 3/3. I'll keep
a check on it for the next week or so and post the results in here.
What is your "different angle".

It will be good to see as many different view points on this and hopefully
try and identify which way produces postive trends. Anyway, at least one
of us will get lucky on the Philly match :lol:
alemo
18-11-04, 11:50
Philadelphia v Spurs
Home team: 195.8

Away team: 199.67
Min: 195.8
Max: 199.67
Av: 197.74
Bookies Line: 188.5
Why is UNDER here ?
lOZ
18-11-04, 11:53
Philadelphia v Spurs
Home team: 195.8

Away team: 199.67
Min: 195.8
Max: 199.67
Av: 197.74
Bookies Line: 188.5
Why is UNDER here ?
sorry, i hada brain explosion. i meant OVER...hopefully 8O

mvinders
18-11-04, 12:27
To IOZ
where do you find the NBA-scores without overtime.
lOZ
18-11-04, 12:39
To IOZ
where do you find the NBA-scores without overtime.
Hi Mvinders,
I adjusted the NBA scores the hard way. Just checked all the OT games
for the Home team when playing at home, allthe OT games for Away team
when playing away, etc... I used Sportsline.com/nba/schedules to find a
summary of all matches for NBA teams...
If anyone knows of a good site with very good stats on NBA it would be
excellent. I know Interwettne nad Livescore are pretty good, but has
limitations.
CG
18-11-04, 12:50
www.nba.com
yuvalfra
18-11-04, 22:48
Trying some NBA picks...
San Antonio At Philadelphia

OVER 188 @ 1.90
A clear over according to the stats. 5/5, almost 10 points over the line.
New York At Houston

OVER 178.5 @ 1.90
A bit questionable. Houston home is 178.25 (slight under) and New York
away is 190.6 (clear over). The minimum/maximum are the same: 178.25
and 190.6. The average is 184.425.
And a new concept, I'm totally unsure wether it is suitable to apply the
system to this, maybe a little too adventureous so if the above win and
these next ones lose don't be surprised.
Cleveland At Charlotte(+6.5)
Charlotte with HC @ 1.90
Charlotte at home loses by 3.5 points
Cleveland away loses by 2 points
Statistical conclusion: Cleveland to win by 1.5
San Antonio At Philadelphia(+8)

Philedelphia with HC @ 1.90
Philedelphia at home loses by 0.2 point
San Antonio away wins by 1.6 points
Statistical conclusion: San Antonio to win by 1.8
New York(+7) At Houston

Houston by 8 @ 1.90
New York on the road loses by 10 points
Houston at home loses by 1 point
Statistical conclusion: Houston to win by 9.
Jovica S
19-11-04, 08:13
Some picks for today
Northampton T. - Chester C. UNDER :D
Italy - Serie B
Verona - Ternana OVER :D
Italy - Coppa Italia

Torino - Sampdoria UNDER :D
Germany - Bundesliga II.

RW Essen - Munich 1860 OVER postp.
France - Ligue 1
Paris S.G. - Lyon UNDER :D
Holland
Roda Kerkrade - Den Haag OVER :cry:
Austria - Erste Division

Austria Lustenau - Karnten OVER :cry:
InterWetten.com - Altach OVER :cry:
Leoben - Obi Worgl UNDER :cry:
Ried - LASK Linz OVER :cry:
Ireland - Premier Division

Cork City - Bohemians UNDER :D
Argentina - Apertura
Instituto - Velez Sarsfield UNDER :D
Germany - Regionalliga
1860 Munchen (A) - Kickers Offenbach UNDER :D
VfR Aalen - Regensburg OVER :cry:
romi
19-11-04, 08:36
Northampton T. - Chester C. UNDER
Italy - Serie B
Verona - Ternana OVER

Torino - Sampdoria UNDER

RW Essen - Munich 1860 OVER
France - Ligue 1
Paris S.G. - Lyon UNDER
Holland
Roda Kerkrade - Den Haag OVER

Austria Lustenau - Karnten OVER
InterWetten.com - Altach OVER
Leoben - Obi Worgl UNDER
Ried - LASK Linz OVER

Cork City - Bohemians UNDER
Instituto - Velez Sarsfield UNDER
1860 Munchen (A) - Kickers Offenbach UNDER
VfR Aalen - Regensburg OVER
what do you take as COMBO today? :D

yuvalfra
19-11-04, 09:48
Well, I knew the idea of applying the system to spread-betting will fail. In
the U/O bets there was 1 out of 2, which isn't bad, so we'll keep testing it.
I'll post my picks for today's soccer matches soon.
yuvalfra
19-11-04, 11:56
Next bets...
Cardiff v Preston
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.82
Verona v Ternana
OVER 2.5 @ 2.00 [last try with Italy Serie B if this bet fails]
Oberhausen v G Furth
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.14
Paris St-G v Lyon

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.67
CG
19-11-04, 12:01
Just been looking through Finnish basketball odds at NordicBet (mainly
because of placing bets on Trotting from Onslow) and came up with 1 that
'would' be a bet:-
KTP v Tarmo <177.50
mighty-duck
19-11-04, 12:20
San Antonio At Philadelphia LOST :(

OVER 188 @ 1.90
A clear over according to the stats. 5/5, almost 10 points over the line.
New York At Houston WON :)

OVER 178.5 @ 1.90
A bit questionable. Houston home is 178.25 (slight under) and New York
away is 190.6 (clear over). The minimum/maximum are the same: 178.25
and 190.6. The average is 184.425.
And a new concept, I'm totally unsure wether it is suitable to apply the
system to this, maybe a little too adventureous so if the above win and
these next ones lose don't be surprised.
Cleveland At Charlotte(+6.5) :(
Charlotte with HC @ 1.90
Charlotte at home loses by 3.5 points
Cleveland away loses by 2 points
Statistical conclusion: Cleveland to win by 1.5
San Antonio At Philadelphia(+8) :(

Philedelphia with HC @ 1.90
Philedelphia at home loses by 0.2 point
San Antonio away wins by 1.6 points
Statistical conclusion: San Antonio to win by 1.8
New York(+7) At Houston :)

Houston by 8 @ 1.90
ganza
19-11-04, 13:12

Houston by 8 @ 1.90
the score was Houston - NY 92-93 so this bet is lost should be this :(
and not this :) - I would say this NBA pickas were unsuccessfull - just 1
win, 3 losses and 1 void
lOZ
19-11-04, 16:30
My NBA Game stats for tomorrow
(OT points excluded)
****************
Toronto v Seattle
Home: 99 + 91.33 = 190.33

Away: 93.5 + 91.25 = 184.75
Min: 182.58
Max: 192.5
Av: 187.5
Bookies Line 200.5 ---> UNDER (5/5)
****************
Spurs v Celtics
Home: 92.5 + 90 = 182.5

Away: 97.5 + 94.25 = 191.75
Min: 182.5
Max: 191.5
Av: 187
Bookies Line 184.5 ---> OVER (3/5)
****************
Miami v Utah
Home: 95.25 + 96.25 = 191.5

Away: 101.75 + 93.5 = 195.25
Min: 189.75
Max: 197
Av: 193.5
***************
Detroit v Indiana
Home: 93 + 85 = 178
Away: 102.75 + 99.75 = 202.5
Min: 178
Max: 202.5
Av: 190.25
Bookies Line 183.5 ---> Too Uncertain
****************
Dallas v NYN
Home: 102 + 95.25 = 197.25

Away: 91 + 98.25 = 189.25
Min: 189.25
Max: 197.25
Av: 193.25
****************
Denver v Chicago
Home: 97.5 + 103.5 = 201

Away: 93.5 + 103.67 = 197.25
Min: 191
Max: 207.25
Av: 199
***************
Phoenix Suns v Lakers
Home: 111.5 + 97.5 = 209

Away: 93.6 + 102.2 = 196
Min: 196
Max: 209
Av: 202.5
***************
Portland v Milwaukee
Home: 93.67 + 94.67 = 188.25

Away: 98.5 + 99 = 197.5
Min: 188.25
Max: 197.5
Av: 193
***************
Kings v Memphis
Home: 107.33 + 95.67 = 203

Away: 97.25 + 100.5 = 197.75
Min: 196
Max: 204.5
Av: 200.25
Good Luck!
yuvalfra
19-11-04, 17:00

Houston by 8 @ 1.90
the score was Houston - NY 92-93 so this bet is lost should be this :(
and not this :) - I would say this NBA pickas were unsuccessfull - just 1
win, 3 losses and 1 void :roll:
Wrong, they were fine. The system can't be applied to spread betting as I
said, it was just a wacky try. In the Under/Over there was 1 out of 2
which is not bad at all. You need more than 2 games in order to test the
system's accuracy.
yuvalfra
19-11-04, 17:03
****************
Toronto v Seattle
Home: 99 + 91.33 = 190.33

Away: 93.5 + 91.25 = 184.75
Min: 182.58
Max: 192.5
Av: 187.5
****************
Spurs v Celtics
Home: 92.5 + 90 = 182.5

Away: 97.5 + 94.25 = 191.75
Min: 182.5
Max: 191.5
Av: 187

****************
Miami v Utah
Home: 95.25 + 96.25 = 191.5

Away: 101.75 + 93.5 = 195.25
Min: 189.75
Max: 197
Av: 193.5
***************
Detroit v Indiana
Home: 93 + 85 = 178
Away: 102.75 + 99.75 = 202.5
Min: 178
Max: 202.5
Av: 190.25
****************
Dallas v NYN
Home: 102 + 95.25 = 197.25

Away: 91 + 98.25 = 189.25
Min: 189.25
Max: 197.25
Av: 193.25
****************
Denver v Chicago
Home: 97.5 + 103.5 = 201

Away: 93.5 + 103.67 = 197.25
Min: 191
Max: 207.25
Av: 199
***************
Home: 111.5 + 97.5 = 209

Away: 93.6 + 102.2 = 196
Min: 196
Max: 209
Av: 202.5
***************
Home: 93.67 + 94.67 = 188.25

Away: 98.5 + 99 = 197.5
Min: 188.25
Max: 197.5
Av: 193
***************
Kings v Memphis
Home: 107.33 + 95.67 = 203

Away: 97.25 + 100.5 = 197.75
Min: 196
Max: 204.5
Av: 200.25
Good Luck!
Thanks for your effort!
To summarize:
Toronto v Seattle
UNDER 200.5 @ 1.90
Spurs v Celtics
OVER 184.5 @ 1.90 [questionable]
Miami v Utah
UNDER 197.5 @ 1.90
Dallas v NYN
UNDER 199.5 @ 1.90
OVER 184.5 @ 1.90
lOZ
19-11-04, 17:40
No Problem. Calculating the NBA stats is a major drag but its the only way
to see if there if this strategy is working.
You're right about the Spurs game being uncertain too actually. Hopefully
its gonna be a profitable day :D
Jovica S
19-11-04, 18:03
Northampton T. - Chester C. UNDER
Italy - Serie B
Verona - Ternana OVER


RW Essen - Munich 1860 OVER
France - Ligue 1
Holland
Roda Kerkrade - Den Haag OVER

Austria Lustenau - Karnten OVER
InterWetten.com - Altach OVER
Leoben - Obi Worgl UNDER
Ried - LASK Linz OVER

Instituto - Velez Sarsfield UNDER
1860 Munchen (A) - Kickers Offenbach UNDER
VfR Aalen - Regensburg OVER
what do you take as COMBO today? :D

I'm go 5 COMBO:
First is

Second:

etc...
CG
19-11-04, 19:07
Just been looking through Finnish basketball odds at NordicBet (mainly
because of placing bets on Trotting from Onslow) and came up with 1 that
'would' be a bet:-
KTP v Tarmo <177.50
KTP v Tarmo 82-85 (167) :)
CG
19-11-04, 19:21
As for tonights NBA, mine come out as:-
Toronto U 200
Detroit O 183.5
Phoenix U 206
Portland O 185
Jovica S
19-11-04, 21:02
Ha, ha
Austria - Erste Division :evil: :cry: :evil: :evil:
0/4
Leoben - Obi Worgl UNDER :cry:
Jovica S
19-11-04, 21:57
One more good COMBO :
Torino - Sampdoria UNDER :D

Paris S.G. - Lyon UNDER :D
Cork City - Bohemians UNDER :D
yuvalfra
19-11-04, 22:28
Back in top form...
Cardiff v Preston
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.82 :D
Verona v Ternana
OVER 2.5 @ 2.00 :D
Oberhausen v G Furth
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.14 :D
Paris St-G v Lyon

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.67 :D
CURRENT:

Staked: 400
OVERALL:
Duration: 17 days
yuvalfra
19-11-04, 22:42
Record so far:
Started with 7/8, since then:
1. Nov. 3: 7/10
2. Nov. 5: 1/1
3. Nov. 6: 5/7
4. Nov. 8: 3/6
5. Nov. 9: 1/1
6. Nov.10: 4/4
7. Nov.12: 0/2
8. Nov.13: 14/23
9. Nov.15: 4/10
10.Nov.19: 4/4
Two bad days, eight good days. Lets hope that continues :)
Jovica S
19-11-04, 23:03
Today:
Bets: 6/12
Combo: 1/4
Profit 4.83%
Overview...


New bank: 134.29 (235.735% profit)
mighty-duck
20-11-04, 10:53
VERY BAD NBA NIGHT
Seattle UNDER 200 WON :D

Dallas Under 198 LOST :(
Lakers Under 205.5 LOST :(
Destroit OVER 182.5 LOST :(
Milwakke Over 185 WON :D
Spurs Over 183.5 LOST :(
2\6
Very Bad Results. :(
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 11:15
Geez, how was Detroit a pick? It was completely uncertain according to
the stats (see lOZ's calculations), same goes to Lakers' game...if someone
wants to post picks, please use the strategy correctly. 3/5 over/under is
usually not enough to make a pick. Sometimes even 4/5 isn't enough.
The "real" results:
Toronto v Seattle
UNDER 200.5 @ 1.90 :D
Spurs v Celtics
OVER 184.5 @ 1.90 [questionable] :(
Miami v Utah
UNDER 197.5 @ 1.90 :D
Dallas v NYN
UNDER 199.5 @ 1.90 :(
OVER 184.5 @ 1.90 :D
3/5 when one of the picks was avoidable is good.

CG
20-11-04, 11:39
wants to post picks, please use the strategy correctly.
Was that aimed at the post I made?
TomPearce
20-11-04, 11:59
Nice work yuvalfra again last night, i went for the double with
championship game and French game @2.96 which i didnt think was that
bad, hope you have some good picks for us again for today have not had
a chance too look through todays games yet but i am sure i will very
soon.
Detroit
20-11-04, 12:02
hi yuvalfra.
What are your picks for German Bundesliga today?
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 12:15
wants to post picks, please use the strategy correctly.
Was that aimed at the post I made?
No,I didn't notice your post, I just saw Mighty-duck posted "results" from
last night, and now I see those are the picks you posted last night. Please
don't take offense from what I said/say, I just think it's confusing that
everyone is posting picks, when many of them are not by the strategy, or
the strategy not used correctly. If the stats are not very decisive
regarding an over/under it can't be a pick, unless it is value, and in case
of nba totals there's no value as all bets are 1.90.
mighty-duck
20-11-04, 12:17
****************
Toronto v Seattle
Home: 99 + 91.33 = 190.33

Away: 93.5 + 91.25 = 184.75
Min: 182.58
Max: 192.5
Av: 187.5
Bookies Line 200.5 ---> UNDER (5/5) :)
****************
Spurs v Celtics
Home: 92.5 + 90 = 182.5

Away: 97.5 + 94.25 = 191.75
Min: 182.5
Max: 191.5
Av: 187
Bookies Line 184.5 ---> OVER (3/5) :(
****************
Miami v Utah
Home: 95.25 + 96.25 = 191.5

Away: 101.75 + 93.5 = 195.25
Min: 189.75
Max: 197
Av: 193.5
Bookies Line 197.5 ---> UNDER (5/5) :D
***************
Detroit v Indiana
Home: 93 + 85 = 178
Away: 102.75 + 99.75 = 202.5
Min: 178
Max: 202.5
Av: 190.25
Bookies Line 183.5 ---> Too Uncertain UNDER
****************
Dallas v NYN
Home: 102 + 95.25 = 197.25

Away: 91 + 98.25 = 189.25
Min: 189.25
Max: 197.25
Av: 193.25
Bookies Line 199.5 ---> UNDER (5/5) :(
****************
Denver v Chicago
Home: 97.5 + 103.5 = 201
Away: 93.5 + 103.67 = 197.25
Min: 191
Max: 207.25
Av: 199
Bookies Line 200.5 ---> Too Uncertain BIG TIME UNDER Bad night BULLS
***************
Home: 111.5 + 97.5 = 209

Away: 93.6 + 102.2 = 196
Min: 196
Max: 209
Av: 202.5
Bookies Line 206.5 ---> Too Uncertain Over
***************
Home: 93.67 + 94.67 = 188.25

Away: 98.5 + 99 = 197.5
Min: 188.25
Max: 197.5
Av: 193
Bookies Line 184.5 ---> OVER (5/5) :D
***************
Kings v Memphis
Home: 107.33 + 95.67 = 203

Away: 97.25 + 100.5 = 197.75
Min: 196
Max: 204.5
Av: 200.25
Bookies Line 202.5 ---> Too Uncertain OVER
Good Luck!
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 12:20
Will keep adding picks in this post...
Man Utd v Charlton

Arsenal v West Brom
OVER 2.5 @ 1.63
C Palace v Newcastle
OVER 2.5 @ 1.92
Middlesbrough v Liverpool
OVER 2.5 @ 2.36 [value]
B Munich v Kaiserslautern
Mainz v Bochum
OVER 2.5 @ 1.77
H Berlin v H Rostock
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.16
Dortmund v Freiburg
OVER 2.5 @ 1.82
Lens v Lille
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.58
Toulouse v Bastia
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.64
Strasbourg v Auxerre
OVER 2.5 @ 2.50 [value]
Nantes v Bordeaux
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.57
Istres v Metz
OVER 2.5 @ 2.60 [value]
Caen v Nice
OVER 2.5 @ 2.46 [value]
Ajaccio v Marseille
OVER 2.5 @ 2.58 [value]
Porto v Boavista
OVER 2.5 @ 2.14
Beira Mar v Sp Lisbon

OVER 2.5 @ 1.98
Crewe v Gillingham
OVER 2.5 @ 1.88
Derby v Sheff Utd
OVER 2.5 @ 1.92
TomPearce
20-11-04, 12:51
Looking at the French league
Lens vs Lille Under

Nantes vs Bordeaux Under
Toulouse vs Bastia Under
Championship
Derby vs Sheff u Over
French league is very predictable, but odds are very low, thats y i may
just have these 3 french games together as a treble, which makes up
odds of about 3.50
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 12:53
Yes, the odds on the french league are very low, so I only take them when
the stats are completely certain (the 3 bets you mentioned were taken).
When there is doubt, I take the value odd - as you can see many value
bets today in French league 1.
TomPearce
20-11-04, 12:57
yuvalfra
are you looking at any games in the championship today
Man U games looking very quiet man u looking best at scoring but quite
boring at the mo.
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 13:02
Yep, I just added these 2 bets:
Crewe v Gillingham
OVER 2.5 @ 1.88
Derby v Sheff Utd

OVER 2.5 @ 1.92
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 13:39
2-0 ManUtd. I knew it was a mistake. 2.18 is not really value ;)
mighty-duck
20-11-04, 13:56
2-0 ManUtd. I knew it was a mistake. 2.18 is not really value ;)
game still runing

who said there will be a 3rd goal.
have some faith
8)
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 13:58
Well, ofcourse it could stay 2-0, but even if it will it was a mistake to pick
it - the odd is not good enough for the assurance the stats gave.
Jovica S
20-11-04, 14:00
Some interesting picks for today:
Crystal Palace - Newcastle U. OVER :cry:
Brighton & Hove A. - Burnley UNDER :D

Crewe Alexandra - Gillingham OVER :D
Derby County - Sheffield U. OVER :cry:
Leeds U. - Queens Park R. UNDER :cry:
Nottingham F. - Reading UNDER :D
Plymouth Argyle - Stoke C. UNDER :D
Watford - Rotherham U. UNDER :D
Bayer Leverkusen - Schalke OVER :D
COMBO 1:
Arsenal - West Bromwich A. OVER :cry:
Chelsea - Bolton W. UNDER :cry:
Crystal Palace - Newcastle U. OVER :cry:
COMBO 2:
Bayer Leverkusen - Schalke OVER :D
Mainz - Bochum OVER :cry:
OB Odense - Herfolge BK OVER :cry:
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 14:07
Jovica, I can't understand some of your picks. Please post picks only if
they are in accorance to the system (even if they are all right, it doesn't
reflect the system's effectiveness and tells a "lie").
Chelsea-Bolton, how could you pick under at an odd of barely 1.90?

Average homegaols : 1.67, Average awaygaols : 2.83
Minimum goals : 1.67, Maximum goals : 2.83
Average minimum/maximum : 2.25
Under 3/5
Leverkusen-Shcalke, over?

Over 3/5
And since I didn't pick most of the games from English Championship I'm
guessing there are wrong picks there too.
TomPearce
20-11-04, 14:12
alot of Jovica picks are at 3/5 with several of them low odds where as
yuvalfra pick are 5/5 (not including the value picks)
mighty-duck
20-11-04, 14:13

Under 3/5
i must understand
why minimum goal 1.67 and not 1.5
Home Score - 1.5

Home Con - 0.17
Away Score - 1.33

Away Con - 1.5
am i right ?
chelsea conceded 1 goals at 6 matches .
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 14:14
alot of Jovica picks are at 3/5 with several of them low odds where as
yuvalfra pick are 5/5 (not including the value picks)
Exactly TomPearce. I give less importance to the odd, rather more to the
stats. I pick some 4/5 unders or overs too, but only if the stat that isn't in
accordance to the pick is not significant (if it's over than 2.4, if it's under
2.6, stuff like that, mainly when the problem is in minimum/maximum).
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 14:17

Under 3/5
i must understand
why minimum goal 1.67 and not 1.5
Home Score - 1.5

Home Con - 0.17
Away Score - 1.33

Away Con - 1.5
am i right ?
chelsea conceded 1 goals at 6 matches .
Home score vs Away conceived = 1.5 vs 1.5 = 1.5 (minimum1)

Home conceived v Away score = 0.17 vs 1.333 = 0.17 (minimum2)
minimum1+minimum2 = 1.67
TomPearce
20-11-04, 14:20
man u vs Charlton Under :D
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 14:22
Yes, but still was too risky, just lucky.
mighty-duck
20-11-04, 14:22
yeah
thanks
:)
lOZ
20-11-04, 14:52
Keeping with the NBA, here are stats for the next matches...
(OT excluded)
Seems that the Cleveland Match is the best bet for the day using the
stats. Others too close to the line.
**************
Cleveland v Charlotte
Home: 183.5
Away: 183.5
Max: 184
Min: 183
Av: 183.5
Bookies Line --> 193.5 (UNDER)
***************
Clippers v Houston
Home: 184.67
Away: 168
Max: 183.33
Min: 169.33
Av: 176.33
Bookies Line --> 177.5 (Too Uncertain)
**************
Atlanta v Utah
Home: 178.3
Away: 192.4
Max: 192.4
Min: 178.3
Av: 185.3
**************
NJ Nets v Washington
Home: 160
Away: 192
Max: 192
Min: 160
Av: 176
**************
New Orleans v Minnesota
Home: 190
Away: 180.33
Max: 190
Min: 180.33
Av: 185

***************
Good Luck!
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 15:15
Well, things looking bad in England for the first time, we'll see what
happends...
dickiebow
20-11-04, 15:20
Ioz, thanks for doing the stats for next NBA games saves me some
valuable time.
Been using the system on NBA with some success. I find the average of
the 5 totals and if there is a difference of 10 or more with the bookies line
then its a bet. 2/2 last night.
Good luck for tonights selection
Dickiebow
Jovica S
20-11-04, 15:33

Under 3/5
Leverkusen-Shcalke, over?

Over 3/5
And since I didn't pick most of the games from English Championship I'm
guessing there are wrong picks there too.
Crystal Palace - Newcastle U. OVER

1. 2.667
2. 3.667
3. 3.667
4. 2.667
5. 3.167
5/5 OVER
Brighton & Hove A. - Burnley UNDER

1. 2.22
2. 1.11
3. 2.22
4. 1.11
5. 1.667
5/5 UNDER
Crewe Alexandra - Gillingham OVER

Derby County - Sheffield U. OVER
This two it's same as your picks
Leeds U. - Queens Park R. UNDER

1. 1.625
2. 2.778
3. 2.778
4. 1.625
5. avg. 2.201
3/5 UNDER with avg. 2.201 (for me this is main value for this sitem)
Nottingham F. - Reading UNDER

1. 2.556
2. 2.111
3. 2.556
4. 2.111
5. 2.33
3/5 UNDER. Classic for 2 or 3 goal, but number near 2 goal. For me this
UNDER. I expet exactly 2 goal on this game.
Plymouth Argyle - Stoke C. UNDER

1. 2.667
2. 1.667
3. 2.667
4. 1.667
5. 2.167
3/5 UNDER; see game Leeds U. - Queens Park R. UNDER.
Watford - Rotherham U. UNDER

1. 2.33
2. 2.11
3. 2.556
4. 1.889
5. 2.22
4/5 UNDER
Bayer Leverkusen - Schalke OVER

1. 4.167
2. 1.833
3. 4.167
4. 1.833
5. 3.0
3/5 OVER with very big avg (3.0)
COMBO 1:
Arsenal - West Bromwich A. OVER
1. 4.5
2. 3.167
3. 4.5
4. 3.167
5. 3.83
Chelsea - Bolton W. UNDER

1. 1.667
2. 2.833
3. 2.833
4. 1.667
5. 2.250
3/5 UNDER
see game Leeds U. - Queens Park R. and game Plymouth Argyle - Stoke
C.
Crystal Palace - Newcastle U. OVER

1. 2.667
2. 3.667
3. 3.667
4. 2.667
5. 3.167
5/5 OVER
COMBO 2:
Bayer Leverkusen - Schalke OVER
Mainz - Bochum OVER

1. 2.667
2. 3.33
3. 3.33
4. 2.667
5. 3.0
5/5 OVER
OB Odense - Herfolge BK OVER

1. 4.25
2. 3.62
3. 4.35
4. 3.62
5. 3.93
5/5 OVER 3.5.
I play this game OVER 3.5 in single and OVER 2.5 in COMBO.
yuvalfra
This is your sistem. I'm play today 18 bets and 6 COMBO based on this
calculation, and this is only a half for today. If you can I'm not place my
bet and overall in this FORUM.
I'm never place my bet before good analizing game. Time it's limt for my
explanation for all bet.
One more. When I'm speak about predictible league, i say that for me
England shampionship is predictible league, also French I, French II, Spain
segunda etc... Because I'm risk more on this games.
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 15:37
Jovica, I think it's great that people are posting their picks. I just found
some of your picks not in accordance to the system. I think that the avg.
is important but also it is important what the first stat is (home) and the
second (away) so to me home @ 1.2 and away @ 9.5 is not an over, see
what I mean?
And indeed I missed some of the picks in the English Championship (like
Brighton-Burnley), I guess I skipped the games too quickly.
Anyway, keep posting your picks and we'll see, maybe your approach will
deliver more successful results.
mighty-duck
20-11-04, 15:42
england looking very bad at the moment
but there are still 45 minutes to play
hope alot of goals will be scored.
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 15:45
Yep, also Bundesliga is looking bad.
TomPearce
20-11-04, 17:08
yuvalfra not such a good day today, not sure on what leagues you think
are doing well so far but i thought i could run them down for you this
includes todays games, not including the French and Portugiese as they
have not started as of yet.
Bets Wins Losses % Correct
Germany 2 2 2 0 100%
League 1 (ENG) 1 1 0 100%
France 8 7 1 87.5%
Denmark 6 5 1 80%
Premiership 18 12 6 67%
Portugal 6 4 2 67%
Chamapionship 8 5 3 62.5%
Spain 10 6 4 60%
Italy A 13 6 7 46%
Germany 1 9 4 5 44%
Italy B 3 1 2 33%
SPL 1 0 1 0%
Jovica S
20-11-04, 18:20
I say before that England Premiere and Bundesliga I it's not predictble.
England Championship yes.
5/7 is not bad.
Brighton & Hove A. - Burnley UNDER :D
Crewe Alexandra - Gillingham OVER :D
Derby County - Sheffield U. OVER :cry:
Leeds U. - Queens Park R. UNDER :cry:
Nottingham F. - Reading UNDER :D
Plymouth Argyle - Stoke C. UNDER :D
Watford - Rotherham U. UNDER :D
Jovica S
20-11-04, 20:41
AZ Alkmaar [3 - 0] RKC Waalwijk
16' [1 - 0] D. Landzaat
50' [2 - 0] B.V. Galen
90' [3 - 0] S. Huysegems :D :D :D
yuvalfra
20-11-04, 21:49
Wow, took a beating today...
Man Utd v Charlton

Arsenal v West Brom

OVER 2.5 @ 1.63 :(
C Palace v Newcastle
OVER 2.5 @ 1.92 :(
Middlesbrough v Liverpool
OVER 2.5 @ 2.36 [value] :(
B Munich v Kaiserslautern
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.40 [value] :(
Mainz v Bochum
OVER 2.5 @ 1.77 :(
H Berlin v H Rostock
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.16 :D
Dortmund v Freiburg
OVER 2.5 @ 1.82 :(
Lens v Lille
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.58 :D
Toulouse v Bastia
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.64 :D
Strasbourg v Auxerre
OVER 2.5 @ 2.50 [value] :D
Nantes v Bordeaux
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.57 :D
Istres v Metz
OVER 2.5 @ 2.60 [value] :(
Caen v Nice
OVER 2.5 @ 2.46 [value] :(
Ajaccio v Marseille
OVER 2.5 @ 2.58 [value] :(
Porto v Boavista
OVER 2.5 @ 2.14 :(
Beira Mar v Sp Lisbon

OVER 2.5 @ 1.98 :D
Crewe v Gillingham
OVER 2.5 @ 1.88 :D
Derby v Sheff Utd

OVER 2.5 @ 1.92 :(
CURRENT:

Staked: 1900
Overall: -353
OVERALL:

Detroit
21-11-04, 01:54
hello yuvalfa !!!
my picks from today from french football today.
Racing-Auxerre over :lol:
Nantes- Bordeaux under :lol:
Toulouse- Bastia under :lol:
All 3 games in a Combo with 100 Euro
Result: Won 492 Euro! 8O
Thank you yuvalfa, thank you.
Detroit
21-11-04, 01:56
yuvalfa, what are your picks for sunday?
Do you have someone :?: :D
lOZ
21-11-04, 08:49
Keeping with the NBA, here are stats for the next matches...
(OT excluded)
Seems that the Cleveland Match is the best bet for the day using the
stats. Others too close to the line.
**************
Cleveland v Charlotte :D (Final Score 184)
Home: 183.5
Away: 183.5
Max: 184
Min: 183
Av: 183.5
Bookies Line --> 193.5 (UNDER)
***************
Clippers v Houston
Home: 184.67
Away: 168
Max: 183.33
Min: 169.33
Av: 176.33
**************
Atlanta v Utah
Home: 178.3
Away: 192.4
Max: 192.4
Min: 178.3
Av: 185.3
**************
NJ Nets v Washington
Home: 160
Away: 192
Max: 192
Min: 160
Av: 176
**************
New Orleans v Minnesota
Home: 190
Away: 180.33
Max: 190
Min: 180.33
Av: 185

***************
Good Luck!
lOZ
21-11-04, 08:54
Ioz, thanks for doing the stats for next NBA games saves me some
valuable time.
Been using the system on NBA with some success. I find the average of
the 5 totals and if there is a difference of 10 or more with the bookies line
then its a bet. 2/2 last night.
Good luck for tonights selection
Dickiebow
Glad someone is using the stats to help win some $. Like yourself, I have
had some OK results from the NBA too.
Did you manage to win anythin today using your averaging technique?
Bogdan
21-11-04, 10:00
Good idea, and this strategy can be improved a little using maybe another
average than aritmethic, and to ponderate the results depending of key-
player missing
Can tell someone please a site where I can find NBA stats split on
home/away sections, for season 2003-2004?
GL
lOZ
21-11-04, 11:40
Next Round of NBA Match Stats
(OT Points Exlcuded)
**************
Toronto v Spurs
Home: 191.5
Away: 188.5
Max: 194
Min: 186
Av: 190
Bookies Line: 187.5 (UNCERTAIN)
**************
Clippers v Suns
Home: 192
Away: 179.5
Max: 197.5
Min: 174
Av: 186
Bookies Line: 201.5 (UNDER)
**************
Boston v Seattle
Home: 181
Away: 187
Max: 187
Min: 181
Av: 184
**************
Knicks v Cleveland
Home: 190
Away: 184
Max: 190
Min: 187
Av: 187

**************
Portland v Houston
Home: 193.35
Away: 167.33
Max: 193.25
Min: 167.33
Av: 175.25
**************
Kings v Bucks
Home: 205.25
Away: 193
Max: 205.25
Min: 193
Av: 196

**************
Lakers v Bulls
Home: 189
Away: 193
Max: 193
Min: 189
Av: 191
Good Luck!
dickiebow
21-11-04, 15:11
Ioz
Cleveland / Charlotte was a bet for me . The av was 183.5 the line was
193.5.. Exactly 10 points under.
Today Clippers/Suns are a massive 15.7 under the line (big bet )
Boston/Seattle are 10.5 under the line..
Be lucky
Dickiebow
yuvalfra
21-11-04, 15:52
Moreiren. v Penafiel
OVER 2.5 @ 2.10
Braga v Estoril
OVER 2.5 @ 1.95
Benfica v Rio Ave

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.98
Hamburg v Wolfsburg
OVER 2.5 @ 1.76
Nurnberg v Hannover
yuvalfra
21-11-04, 15:58
hello yuvalfa !!!
my picks from today from french football today.
Result: Won 492 Euro! 8O
Thank you yuvalfa, thank you.
I'm really glad for you!! Hope my picks will only keep helping you make
money.
yuvalfra
21-11-04, 16:00
**************
Home: 183.5
Away: 183.5
Max: 184
Min: 183
Av: 183.5
Talk about accurate! Stats and match result are identical!
Thanks so much lOZ for the effort you're making in delivering us the
stats!
TomPearce
21-11-04, 16:47
Well done on your win detroit, may it continue, i had my french treble
with lower odds but at 2.96 with 3 games going under, was sucessful.
lord_casko
21-11-04, 17:49
Hi guys! I've been impressed very much about this kind of strategy,so I
started to make some proves on leagues of previous years...
Here are a little result:
italian serie B 2001-2002 39 bets on UNDER and OVER with all three
criteria satisfied.
won 46.67 %
english first division (now championship) some games of current year and
some of another year
won 54.28 %
So...i have some ideas and question:
1) it could be a short term lucky those good results until today here on
the forum
2) Probably there are some leagues in which the system works, some not
3) i think to put down some statistical results meaning how many win on
under the system gets, and how many betting on over...then i will see if
there is some kind of threshold value. Example: betting on under with the
max of the three criteria (min, max and average) =2.00 what % it
gets...so go on putting max=2.2 2.3 and so on....
4) someone of you could help me with the work? it costs a lot of time
working alone...and i am very interested to make some proves on
differents leagues of past years.
5) have some of you just tested if the strategy works on some leagues
better than some others?
Sorry for bad english :-(
Good luck to all 8)
PS: yuvalfra, first of all i thionk you have done a great work! I was
thinking...in my excel sheets I use calculate an index of variability for
goals, and use it togheter with averages. A simple variability index that
goes from 0 to 1. Have you never tryed to add something like that to
goals average? what do you think about it?
lord_casko
21-11-04, 17:54
forgotten that my way to analyze leagues is:
take all the results of the league until 10th game played, so i have some
averages to work on;
put results game by game, so refreshing stats
It is just like a year ago leauge lives now,day by day, game by game. I
make it using a database of previous years.
If you need details of my first results i just posted tell me, so i will find a
way to make you get my excel sheets with them.
Bye
yuvalfra
21-11-04, 18:40
Hmmm lord_casko, I'm not sure as to how you calculated this. Did you
check each game by the stats until it was played? (f.ex a game in the
12th week of the league you checked the stats of the 11 weeks only? or
the stats from the entire season?)
Did you pick under/over only when there was at least 4/5 and the stats
were very clear about under/over?
Lastly, you must not forget the impact of odds - if an odd is too low in
comparison to the stats I will not pick it, if an odd is too high I will pick it
as value, even if the stats don't 100% show under/over etc.
I agree with you it could certainly be just a stroke of luck, that's the
reason I keep posting bets, it's not for fun, but rather to check the system
+ help people make some money as long as this stroke of luck stays.
If you could explain more about the check-ups you made I would be glad
to hear, and learn from your research - thanks!
And about your question regarding leagues - so far Italian Serie B has
been proven to be bad for the system (in your results under 50%),
English Championship has been OK (I guess 55% or so).
The best leagues so far have been English Premiership, Portugal Superliga
and French League 1. Especially Portugal and France have great results
(60-65%).
yuvalfra
21-11-04, 18:44
We have reached the 100th bet mark. Accuracy encouragingly is still
above 60%.
Moreiren. v Penafiel
OVER 2.5 @ 2.10 :D
Braga v Estoril
OVER 2.5 @ 1.95 :(
Benfica v Rio Ave

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.98 :(
Hamburg v Wolfsburg
OVER 2.5 @ 1.76 :D
Nurnberg v Hannover
CURRENT:

Staked: 500
Overall: +116
OVERALL:

New bank: 2,990
lOZ
21-11-04, 22:22
Ioz
Cleveland / Charlotte was a bet for me . The av was 183.5 the line was
193.5.. Exactly 10 points under.
Today Clippers/Suns are a massive 15.7 under the line (big bet )
Boston/Seattle are 10.5 under the line..
Be lucky
Dickiebow
Hi Dickiebow,
I didnt get to calculate all the stats. But thanks for letting me know about
the Charlotte match. I will have a small punt on it .
Oh, and BTW, what bookie do you use? I have to change bookies cos the
odds i am getting are a bit too low.
lOZ
22-11-04, 06:33
Next Round of NBA Match Stats
(OT Points Exlcuded)
**************
Toronto v Spurs (187 UNDER)
Home: 191.5
Away: 188.5
Max: 194
Min: 186
Av: 190
**************
Clippers v Suns :( (233)
Home: 192
Away: 179.5
Max: 197.5
Min: 174
Av: 186
**************
Boston v Seattle :) (185)
Home: 181
Away: 187
Max: 187
Min: 181
Av: 184
**************
Knicks v Cleveland (186)
Home: 190
Away: 184
Max: 190
Min: 187
Av: 187

**************
Portland v Houston (190)
Home: 193.35
Away: 167.33
Max: 193.25
Min: 167.33
Av: 175.25
**************
Kings v Bucks :D (167)
Home: 205.25
Away: 193
Max: 205.25
Min: 193
Av: 196
**************
Lakers v Bulls :) (195)
Home: 189
Away: 193
Max: 193
Min: 189
Av: 191
Good Luck!
3/4 picks correct using Yuvalfra's method. Its important to assess how the
method didn't work as much as it did..and what lessons can be learned
from applying it to NBA...more insights later...
lord_casko
22-11-04, 08:04
Hi Yuvalfra! thanks for answering me :) So...about my way to calculate
the results:
1) For example, if a calculate results for 12th day I consider the stats of
1 - 11 day. I have the calendars and all the results, i take them in day by
day, so it is just like the league is running for real. The stats refresh day
by day. So, with the stats of 1-11th day i calculate 12th day under over
results. Then i put in the results of games in calendar and the stats
refresh. At 13th game i have the stats 1-12th game. Anyway, to have
some statistics to work on, i wait the 11th day to start testing, cause i
think a lower number of played games isn't sufficient to have an idea of a
trend of goals. So I start with 11th day, calculating under/over on the
stats of 1-10th day.
2) unfortunately i haven't got the odds for previous years leagues...so I

can only calculate the % of success of the strategy, betting on all Under
and Over that satisfy your system:
1ST = overall homegames HGFA + HGSA
2ND = overall awaygames AGFA + AGSA
3RD = MEDIA((MAX(HGFA;AGSA)+MAX(HGSA;AGFA));(MIN(HGFA;AG
SA)+(MIN(HGSA;AGFA)))
I write this way so you can easily put them on an excel sheet to calculate.
3) On english league i noticed that the % of win under is higher than over
%. And i noticed that playng under with the max of 3 criteria = 2.00 the
% is about 80% win. For the moment i have tested it on 60 games of
english 1st division (now championship).
I will put my work on the leagues you told, portugal, french 1st and
english 1st. I wil analyze years from 2001-2002 up to current year.
Obviously the odd is very important. For calculating money I can only put
into my model a "paviment odd"...so for example i can get what % of U-O
winnings let me get a profit if the minimum of all odds betted in 1.70, o
1.75 and so on.
let me say again you have made a really good and interesting system, all
that i want is to help it and all who plays it :) I think some test on 3-4
complete leagues will be useful...
Have a nice day! bye 8)
lOZ
22-11-04, 12:27
**************
Home: 183.5
Away: 183.5
Max: 184
Min: 183
Av: 183.5
Talk about accurate! Stats and match result are identical!
Thanks so much lOZ for the effort you're making in delivering us the
stats!
No thanks required Yuvralfa - just glad to use your excellent formula. I

am just as interested to see what the stats turn up as a lot of other people
I imagine.
As for the NBA results over the past two days, it is very curious how some
of the final scores are close the the predicted stats. On the other hand, a
few of the predictions have been completely off. However, this should be
expected as whenever you are using probability there is always going to
be at least one completely wrong game now and again.
Also, I didnt put a prediction down for every match in the last round of
games because of the unceretainty. However, it can be seen that if a
prediction was made for those games based on the stats, 2/3 would also
have been correct. This is not a bad result at all. But again, I wouldnt be
willing to put money behind those uncertain games just yet - as they may
just be pure luck.
lOZ
22-11-04, 13:34
And for the next NBA Matches....
(OT points exlcuded from calculations...)
****************
DALLAS v MINNESOTA :D
Home: 198.5
Away: 183.5
Max: 198.5
Min: 183.5
Av: 186
Bookies Line --> 200.5

Likely Outcome --> UNDER (But this may be close...)
***************
UTAH v HORNETS :(
Home: 193.75
Away: 188
Max: 193.75
Min: 188
Av: 191
Bookies Line --> 187

(OVER)
****************
MEMPHIS v SPURS
Home: 181
Away: 188.5
Max: 190
Min: 179.5
Av: 184.75

(UNCERTAIN)
****************
PHOENIX v BULLS
Home: 209
Away: 193
Max: 209
Min: 193
Av: 201

(UNCERTAIN)
*****************
I cant guarantee the accuracy of the stats ( partciularly lately as I am sick
as a dog with the flu). Thank God theres only 4 games this round 8O
Good Luck!
yuvalfra
22-11-04, 15:03
lord_casko, seems like you're working very hard to complete this
research,I'd like to thank you again.
lOZ - I think Jazz-Hornets match's stats are good enough for an over pick,
it's close, but what do you think?
yuvalfra
22-11-04, 15:09
A Villa v Tottenham
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.83
lOZ
22-11-04, 15:15
lord_casko, seems like you're working very hard to complete this
research,I'd like to thank you again.
lOZ - I think Jazz-Hornets match's stats are good enough for an over pick,
it's close, but what do you think?
Yes, I think it is worth a shot. Some bookies line is moving towards 187
now... I actually too the over on this match
Jovica S
22-11-04, 15:29
Today:

Longford Town - Drogheda United UNDER(5/5) :cry:
1. H: 2.059
2. A: 2.235
3. max: 2.353
4. min: 1.941
5. avg: 2.147
Germany - Bundesliga II
Energie Cottbus - Alemannia Aachen UNDER (4/5) :cry:
1. H: 1.667
2. A: 2.0
3. max: 2.667
4. min: 1.00
5. avg: 1.833
Italy - Serie C1/A

Pavia - Grosseto UNDER (4/5) :D
1. H: 2.250
2. A: 1.4
3. max: 3.2
4. min: 0.45
5. avg: 1.825
This games like very good for combo.
Jovica S
22-11-04, 15:33
A Villa v Tottenham
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.83
???
This only 3/5
1. H: 2.5
2. A: 1.667
3. max: 2.5
4. min: 1.167
5. avg: 1.833
lOZ
22-11-04, 15:44
A Villa v Tottenham
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.83
???
This only 3/5
1. H: 2.5
2. A: 1.667
3. max: 2.5
4. min: 1.167
5. avg: 1.833
Jovica, this is not an exact science. I think he took the under as a

calculated risk as there are no overs to speak of... also using Regand's
web site, it shows stats on last three matches mostly under...
Tipoune56
22-11-04, 17:55
As many of yours, I think Yuvalfra has made a superb work with his
formula, and I just regret to not have followed him since the start, but i
wonder if, for a few games, we shouln't include some qualitative
information like weather forecasts or a lay-off of a coach... Like today, I
wouldn't bet on Villa- Totenham because here is a team which played very
defensive and now seems have chosen an attacking tactics ( with the
coach change ...)
lOZ
22-11-04, 21:25
****************
DALLAS v MINNESOTA
Home: 198.5
Away: 183.5
Max: 198.5
Min: 183.5
Av: 186

***************
UTAH v HORNETS
Home: 193.75
Away: 188
Max: 193.75
Min: 188
Av: 191

Likely Outcome --> (OVER)
****************
MEMPHIS v SPURS
Home: 181
Away: 188.5
Max: 190
Min: 179.5
Av: 184.75

(UNCERTAIN)
****************
PHOENIX v BULLS
Home: 209
Away: 193
Max: 209
Min: 193
Av: 201

(UNCERTAIN)
*****************
Good Luck!
The bookies line for the Dallas v Minnesota match is now around 194.5
which is too uncertain for me to pick under. At the time I posted the stats,
I think I got the line at 200.5 from Bet 365 or something like that.
lOZ
22-11-04, 21:45
As many of yours, I think Yuvalfra has made a superb work with his
formula, and I just regret to not have followed him since the start, but i
wonder if, for a few games, we shouln't include some qualitative
information like weather forecasts or a lay-off of a coach... Like today, I
wouldn't bet on Villa- Totenham because here is a team which played very
defensive and now seems have chosen an attacking tactics ( with the
coach change ...)
I see the sense in what you are saying. However, I think when you start
to take those factors in to consideration, you get abit too complicated.
I think there is something worthshile in sticking with the simplicity of the

current method.
yuvalfra
22-11-04, 22:20
****************
DALLAS v MINNESOTA
Home: 198.5
Away: 183.5
Max: 198.5
Min: 183.5
Av: 186

***************
UTAH v HORNETS
Home: 193.75
Away: 188
Max: 193.75
Min: 188
Av: 191

Likely Outcome --> (OVER)
****************
MEMPHIS v SPURS
Home: 181
Away: 188.5
Max: 190
Min: 179.5
Av: 184.75

(UNCERTAIN)
****************
PHOENIX v BULLS
Home: 209
Away: 193
Max: 209
Min: 193
Av: 201

(UNCERTAIN)
*****************
Good Luck!
The bookies line for the Dallas v Minnesota match is now around 194.5
which is too uncertain for me to pick under. At the time I posted the stats,
I think I got the line at 200.5 from Bet 365 or something like that.
Well, don't relate to the new lines, the fact the line has gone down just
goes to show that many people are betting under on the original line and
that is probably the right pick.
Tipoune56, the "magic" of the system is that it is very simple. Stats only
are taken in consideration. As you can see I have betted at least twice
UNDER in a Real Madrid match, or OVER in a match in France where
usually the scores are low. So, I try to keep logic and various information
as much out of it as possible. Questioning every pick would be easy (Team
A is highly motivated and will defend well = under. Team B is crushed and
no new coach has been found yet, messy game = over, and so on and
fourth). If we mix our own opinions into the bets, then there is no use for
the formula, luck will be a bigger factor than it is now, and believe me it's
a big factor even now - this is not a magic formula, just a reflective of the
stats in one whole combination, that delivers possibly better probabiliy of
winning than in normal bets - that probability can still never be certain, so
you can always lose as any bet.
So anyway what I'm trying to say is that it would take too much time and
effort to check every game thoroughly, plus it could harm the
effectiveness of the system if we judge each pick seperately. I think the
only factor that should be taken in consideration is weather, if you know
of a game that has very damp conditions and your bet is OVER, then it
should be a no-bet for sure. If it's UNDER, you can probably stick with it...
yuvalfra
22-11-04, 22:23
A Villa v Tottenham
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.83 :D
CURRENT:

Staked: 100
Overall: +83
OVERALL:

New bank: 3,073
TomPearce
22-11-04, 23:01
again looked at the spurs game tonight, and was gonna take quite nice
odds, really should have too, villa very defencive, and not scoring many
either, but agree with the change of coach can effect things and also the
weather, as we saw last week in the Juve game. but again as you say it all
gets too complicated then.
TomPearce
22-11-04, 23:05
I think Regands site is a great help to all of us, looking tonights games
with spurs, does anyone see any colleration in the previous meetings with
teams, for example last 10 games spurs v villa 8 have been under, (11/9
inc tonight) i wonder if this stat can maybe be looked at and see if it has a
bearing on games,
what do you think?
lOZ
22-11-04, 23:11
I think Regands site is a great help to all of us, looki
Log in
Pages : 1 2 [3] 4 5
Gintas
30-11-04, 21:12
Hi All,
I was following this thread for a couple of days, getting more and more
interested. I know, this stuff works quite good on NBA but there is still
some things to be improved. I will add 5 new stats making a rating of
10/10. It will be:
1) Home team's points in won matches + Away team's in lost matches
2) Home team's points in lost matches + Away team's in won matches
3) Points that both teams scores in particular weekday
4) Total average of Home team games
5) Total average of Away team games
*All Stats are taken from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com
Still I'm not sure if I done any good, so criticism is welcome.
So here's my first picks:

NJ Nets v CHA Bobcats
Home: 163
Away: 187
Min: 163
Max: 187
Avr: 176
HomeW+AwayL: 180
HomeL+AwayW: 183
Avr on Tuesday: 174
NJ avr: 174
CHA avr: 194
Bookies Line --> 175 at GB
Pick --> 6/10 Over
ATL Hawks v NY Knicks

Home: 186
Away: 194
Min: 180
Max: 200
Avr: 190
HomeW+AwayL: 181
HomeL+AwayW: 189
Avr on Tuesday: 179
ATL avr: 189
NY avr: 194
Pick --> 7/10 Under
MIA Heat v TOR Raptors

Home: 198
Away: 198
Min: 195
Max: 202
Avr: 198
HomeW+AwayL: 200
HomeL+AwayW: 189
Avr on Tuesday: 185
MIA avr: 196
TOR avr: 198
Pick --> 8/10 Under
MIL Bucks v LA Lakers

Home: 196
Away: 198
Min: 195
Max: 200
Avr: 197
HomeW+AwayL: 196
HomeL+AwayW: 195
Avr on Tuesday: 194
MIL avr: 198
LA avr: 194
Bookies Line --> 200.5 at GB
Pick --> 10/10 Under
MEM Grizzlies v SAC Kings

Home: 182
Away: 203
Min: 182
Max: 204
Avr: 194
HomeW+AwayL: 194
HomeL+AwayW: 197
Avr on Tuesday: 192
MEM avr: 191
SAC avr: 203
Pick --> 7/10 Under
HOU Rockets v DET Pistons

Home: 179
Away: 192
Min: 179
Max: 192
Avr: 185
HomeW+AwayL: 180
HomeL+AwayW: 181
Avr on Tuesday: 175
HOU avr: 177
DET avr: 188
Pick --> 9/10 Over
DAL Mavericks v SA Spurs

Home: 194
Away: 185
Min: 185
Max: 194
Avr: 189
HomeW+AwayL: 197
HomeL+AwayW: 183
Avr on Tuesday: 196.3
DALavr: 193
SA avr: 182
Pick --> 6/10 Over
UTA Jazz v PHX Suns

Home: 185
Away: 201
Min: 184
Max: 203
Avr: 193
HomeW+AwayL: 211
HomeL+AwayW: 196
Avr on Tuesday:208
UTA avr: 189
PHX avr: 201
Pick --> 6/10 Over
POR Trailblazers v SEA Supersonics

Home: 186
Away: 186
Min: 184
Max: 189
Avr: 186
HomeW+AwayL: 178
HomeL+AwayW: 185
Avr on Tuesday: 184
POR avr: 177
SEA avr: 190
Pick --> 8/10 Over
Ok, my bets for today will be:

MIL Bucks v LA Lakers Under
HOU Rockets v DET Pistons Over
Thanks for your comments in advance
TomPearce
30-11-04, 22:48
always good to try out new ways as things i am sure can always be
imporved upon. Will be watching this one as the NBA looks very
promising. I am also doing the same with football based out of 20. As for
tonight only one correction
MIL Bucks v LA Lakers 9/10 UNDER is reallly 10/10 under as 200 is under
200.5 (if you get that)
kepp us posted on results any way and see how it goes.
500+ now yuvalfra and still going strong!
TomPearce
30-11-04, 23:01
Still in its early stage but using 20/20 for predictions here is what i have
done so far in last few days (since Saturday)
17/20 - 1/1 - 100%

16/20 - 3/6 - 50%
13/17 - 1/1 - 100%
14/15 - 0/1 - 0%
Total - 5/9 (just over 50%)
As i say still in its early days but with the right pick could become
promising, will keep a track until this weekend and see what happens till
then. And will try and get this up to 60% until then.
lOZ
01-12-04, 00:08
Ginats, sorry about hte late reply to your question, but it seems that you
have found the stats for NBA ok. Gooc luck with your system - I hope that
you are able to change our NBA fortunes at least :D Acually, i've had
better luck on the soccer lately as i've notice many of our friends on this
board have too.
I have been lookin over the stats/results of the last few matches trying to
identify any possible trends etc and taking in to consideration other
factors like yourself.
Anyway, it will be excellent to compare how the results of these systems

to see what works and what doesnt. My picks are:
Miami - Toronto (Under 200) :D

NJ Nets v Charlotte (Over 175.5) :D
Good luck to all!
lOZ
01-12-04, 02:40
Also go for Portland v Seattle (Over 183) :D
I not only take into account hte usual stats, but also place added weight
on the following:
- dominant team performance; (what is the dominant tema can be
borderline and matter of opinion);
- home team games average;
- last 3 H-to-H
- Last 3 matches for home team playing at home, last 3 matchs for away
team playing away;
- general offensive performance of each team.
From a rough analysis of hte past match results, there seems a trend that
the end score more often than not gravitates towards the dominant team
(pehraps as that team dictates play esier), and even more so whe nthe
dominant tema is playing at home. Again, this is not perfect, but worth
texperimenting with.
Its still jut a crude variation on the original method, and surely needs to
be tests further... but from the past mistakes, I think these added factors
can only improve the accuracy of predictions...good luck
lOZ
01-12-04, 05:47
Hi All,
I was following this thread for a couple of days, getting more and more
interested. I know, this stuff works quite good on NBA but there is still
some things to be improved. I will add 5 new stats making a rating of
10/10. It will be:
1) Home team's points in won matches + Away team's in lost matches
2) Home team's points in lost matches + Away team's in won matches
3) Points that both teams scores in particular weekday
4) Total average of Home team games
5) Total average of Away team games
*All Stats are taken from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com
Still I'm not sure if I done any good, so criticism is welcome.
So here's my first picks:

NJ Nets v CHA Bobcats
Home: 163
Away: 187
Min: 163
Max: 187
Avr: 176
HomeW+AwayL: 180
HomeL+AwayW: 183
Avr on Tuesday: 174
NJ avr: 174
CHA avr: 194
Pick --> 6/10 Over
ATL Hawks v NY Knicks

Home: 186
Away: 194
Min: 180
Max: 200
Avr: 190
HomeW+AwayL: 181
HomeL+AwayW: 189
Avr on Tuesday: 179
ATL avr: 189
NY avr: 194
Pick --> 7/10 Under
MIA Heat v TOR Raptors

Home: 198
Away: 198
Min: 195
Max: 202
Avr: 198
HomeW+AwayL: 200
HomeL+AwayW: 189
Avr on Tuesday: 185
MIA avr: 196
TOR avr: 198
Pick --> 8/10 Under
MIL Bucks v LA Lakers

Home: 196
Away: 198
Min: 195
Max: 200
Avr: 197
HomeW+AwayL: 196
HomeL+AwayW: 195
Avr on Tuesday: 194
MIL avr: 198
LA avr: 194
MEM Grizzlies v SAC Kings

Home: 182
Away: 203
Min: 182
Max: 204
Avr: 194
HomeW+AwayL: 194
HomeL+AwayW: 197
Avr on Tuesday: 192
MEM avr: 191
SAC avr: 203
Pick --> 7/10 Under
HOU Rockets v DET Pistons

Home: 179
Away: 192
Min: 179
Max: 192
Avr: 185
HomeW+AwayL: 180
HomeL+AwayW: 181
Avr on Tuesday: 175
HOU avr: 177
DET avr: 188
Pick --> 9/10 Over
DAL Mavericks v SA Spurs

Home: 194
Away: 185
Min: 185
Max: 194
Avr: 189
HomeW+AwayL: 197
HomeL+AwayW: 183
Avr on Tuesday: 196.3
DALavr: 193
SA avr: 182
Pick --> 6/10 Over
UTA Jazz v PHX Suns

Home: 185
Away: 201
Min: 184
Max: 203
Avr: 193
HomeW+AwayL: 211
HomeL+AwayW: 196
Avr on Tuesday:208
UTA avr: 189
PHX avr: 201
Pick --> 6/10 Over
POR Trailblazers v SEA Supersonics

Home: 186
Away: 186
Min: 184
Max: 189
Avr: 186
HomeW+AwayL: 178
HomeL+AwayW: 185
Avr on Tuesday: 184
POR avr: 177
SEA avr: 190
Pick --> 8/10 Over
Ok, my bets for today will be:

MIL Bucks v LA Lakers Under
HOU Rockets v DET Pistons Over
Thanks for your comments in advance
Congrats Glintas on the excellent work you've done.
Just wanted to clarify, how did you decide to consider (1) and (2) above?
Are these just taken from Sportsillustrated.com?
When calculating the Home, Away, av, max min, do you remove the
points scored by the teams in OT matches? Thanks and congrats again :D
TomPearce
01-12-04, 08:06
Nice one Gintas 7/9 for your first attempt, can believe HOU Rockets v DET
Pistons stayed under, but a very good start keep us posted.
mircearos
01-12-04, 12:14
Best system available around here. I have made some money using it and
now it's time to thank yuvalfra for the system.
So any predictions for the NBA matches tonight?
Thank you again and good luck to us all. And let's hope this topic will
reach 1000 posts.
lOZ
01-12-04, 15:43
NBA Picks...
Orlando v Toronto (Under 204.5) :(
Boston v Bucks (Under 199) :(
Wizards v Nets (Over 183) :(
Nicks v Grizzlies (Under 195.5) :D
Hornets v Kings (Over 189) :(
Bulls v Lakers (Under 195.5) :D
Spurs v 76ers (Under 187) :D
Suns v Cavs (Under 202.5) :(
Seattle v Jazz (Under 202.5) (I think this odds wre wrong and should be
around 192 now and if so take OVER 192) :D
GSW v Minnessota (Under 189) :(
TomPearce
01-12-04, 16:32
mircearos Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:14 pm Post subject:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
reach 1000 posts.
Lots of web sites charging people for the privelage of knowledge which is
no where near as good either.
mircearos
01-12-04, 16:40
I guess so that is why I am so thankfull.
Gintas
01-12-04, 16:51
NBA picks. Day 2. Overall: 7 won bets, 2 lost bets.
BOS Celtics v MIL Bucks

Home: 184
Away: 198.83
Min: 184
Max: 198.83
Avr: 191
HomeW+AwayL: 198
HomeL+AwayW: 195
Avr on Wednesday: 198
BOS avr: 193.6
MIL avr: 197
WAS Wizards v NJ Nets

Home: 213
Away: 186
Min: 186
Max: 213
Avr: 199
HomeW+AwayL: 185
HomeL+AwayW: 191
Avr on Wednesday:188
WAS avr: 206
NJ avr: 175
Pick --> 9/10 Over
ORL Magic v TOR Raptors

Home: 199
Away: 198
Min: 197
Max: 200
Avr: 198
HomeW+AwayL: 198
HomeL+AwayW: 194
ORL avr: 196
TOR avr: 197
NY Knicks v MEM Grizzlies

Home: 193
Away: 199
Min: 193
Max: 199
Avr: 196
HomeW+AwayL: 194
HomeL+AwayW: 189
NY avr: 196
MEM avr: 190
Pick --> 6/10 Under
NO Hornets v SAC Kings

Home: 191
Away: 202
Min: 189.26
Max: 203
Avr: 196
HomeW+AwayL: 170
HomeL+AwayW: 194
NO avr: 183
SAC avr: 202
Pick --> 7/10 Over
CHI Bulls v LA Lakers

Home: 193
Away: 196
Min: 187
Max: 202
Avr: 194.55
HomeW+AwayL: 198
HomeL+AwayW: 186
CHI avr: 191
LA avr: 194
Pick --> 7/10 Under
SA Spurs v PHI 76ers

Home: 177
Away: 190
Min: 177
Max: 190
Avr: 183
HomeW+AwayL: 188
HomeL+AwayW: 197.4
SA avr: 183
PHI avr: 197
Pick --> 6/10 Over
PHX Suns v CLE Cavaliers

Home: 201
Away: 184
Min: 184
Max: 201
Avr: 193
HomeW+AwayL: 196
HomeL+AwayW: 210
PHX on Wednesday: 210
CLE avr: 187
PHX avr: 202
Pick --> 8/10 Under
SEA Supersonics v UTA Jazz

Home: 194
Away: 193
Min: 186
Max: 201
Avr: 193
HomeW+AwayL: 193
HomeL+AwayW: 188
SEA avr: 190
UTA avr: 191
Pick --> 9/10 Over
GS Warriors v MIN Timberwolves

SEA Supersonics v UTA Jazz
Home: 185
Away: 193
Min: 185
Max: 193
Avr: 188.89
HomeW+AwayL: 200
HomeL+AwayW: 186
GS avr: 184
MIN avr: 195
Pick --> 6/10 Under
GL
yuvalfra
01-12-04, 18:02
reach 1000 posts.
Great to hear that. Always warms my heart to hear the bookies are losing
some money :)
yuvalfra
01-12-04, 19:14
lOZ, didn't you get 3/3 last night in the NBA? Good work!
Great job Gintas too!
rile
01-12-04, 21:31
Hi, guys!
I am new here, but I have read every 21 page of this topis.
I don't know how this system will work for UEFA cup but I noticed one
game that is according to the system pretty safe:
Aigaleo - Lazio Roma

AVG: 1,5
So, accordingly to this result, UNDER is pretty sure!
What do you think of this pick!?
TomPearce
01-12-04, 21:38
We tend to stay from the Cup matches as they can very often be
unpredictable. You also need to look for a 5/5 rating not just one average,
which i take it you have done, but its always worth looking at cup
matching but generally we dont put money on it, (well not me personally)
but in this case this game does look ok.
yuvalfra
01-12-04, 22:06
Cup games are a no-go. You may very well succeed, but it would have
nothing to do with the system. In national cup games I stay away because
the importance of the match varies for different teams and usually the
squads change from league matches, resulting in more unpredictable
results. In UEFA and other European cup matches I don't see any point
whatsoever of using the system, as the stats collected are from matches
against teams from all around the continent, and the competition is
knockout, away goals are important etc, there are too many factors
besides the stats that cause it to be useless with the system.
lOZ
02-12-04, 02:10
lOZ, didn't you get 3/3 last night in the NBA? Good work!
Great job Gintas too!

Thaks Yuvalfra. I hae to say, the past week was pretty demoralising with
the NBA results. and its a good breath of fresh air to have others getting
in on the NBA action. Like last night Glintas rocked big time. Cant wait to
see what results we have today.
Atilla
02-12-04, 08:41
gintas over unders suck last night :(
rile
02-12-04, 08:45
We tend to stay from the Cup matches as they can very often be
unpredictable. You also need to look for a 5/5 rating not just one average,
which i take it you have done, but its always worth looking at cup
matching but generally we dont put money on it, (well not me personally)
but in this case this game does look ok.
Hi!
I must admit one thing. As I said before, I read all pages of this topic, but
I still haven't understood what does 5/5 rating stand for?! I know, there
were some explanations, but those explanations didn't help me.
Maybe you could explain that better or even give an example. An example
would be great!!
Thnx for advice in cup games!

EDIT:
I've been doing some research about what 5/5 means.

The righter "5" means last 5 games, and lefter "5" means 5 out of 5
matches, let's say, went over!
And for example if we have 3/5 OVER, and 4/5 OVER, then the probability
for over is for the team that has the 4/5 statistic. Am I right?!
But, still I have questions: For X/Y statistic, do you take H2H matches or
last 5 games of home team?!
Atilla
02-12-04, 08:54
5/5 is 5 out of 5
rile
02-12-04, 08:55
5/5 is 5 out of 5
No ****?! :lol:
I know that, but I want to know 5 OF WHAT out of 5 OF WHAT?!
Is it for example, 5 matches that went under out of 5 matches?!
Atilla
02-12-04, 09:00
lol u must be so lame.
u dont even refer to anything dude
rile
02-12-04, 09:30
lol u must be so lame.
u dont even refer to anything dude
Sorry, but I don't understand what you're trying to say! :?
Atilla
02-12-04, 09:36
I just dont understand what U ARE trying to say i will be happy to help u
but u have to refer to something specific
rile
02-12-04, 09:42
OK, let's try it this way!
Can you give me an example of determining X/Y ratio? Take two clubs and
show me how do you get the 5/5, 4/5, 3/5 or any other X/Y?!?!?
mircearos
02-12-04, 11:01
Hi rile read the first page of the topic. There you will see what the "5/5"
means. It's about the nr of goals/match scored by the home team plus the
no goals/match conceded by the hame team and this is just on home
matches for the first team . THIS IS JUST 1 out of 5. The rest of 4 out of 5
you will see explained there. Good luck.
yuvalfra
02-12-04, 14:03
Read the first page.
There you can learn how to calculate HOME average, AWAY average,
MINIMUM value, MAXIMUM value and OVERALL average.
Each of these factors are determined over or under, if they are over 2.5 or
under 2.5. If all the values are under 2.5 that means it's under 5/5, if only
4 of the values are under 2.5 that means it's under 4/5 and so on.
rile
02-12-04, 15:09
Read the first page.
There you can learn how to calculate HOME average, AWAY average,
MINIMUM value, MAXIMUM value and OVERALL average.
Each of these factors are determined over or under, if they are over 2.5 or
under 2.5. If all the values are under 2.5 that means it's under 5/5, if only
4 of the values are under 2.5 that means it's under 4/5 and so on.
Finally, an excellent explanation! Thnx! And thnx to everyone else for

trying to explain! :)
TomPearce
02-12-04, 22:18
Not sure when i will get on tomorrow so just posting an early pick which
comes from the German Bundsleiga 2.
Karlscuher v Duisberg UNDER 18/20
This is a near certain Under as almost every stat points towards this
outcome. We will see...
lOZ
02-12-04, 22:37
Not sure when i will get on tomorrow so just posting an early pick which
comes from the German Bundsleiga 2.
Karlscuher v Duisberg UNDER 18/20
This is a near certain Under as almost every stat points towards this
outcome. We will see...
Thanks Tom. BTW, you've been using your variation of x/20 stats for
soccer rite? Are you finding that works better generally? Unfortunately I
haven't been able to keep up with al lthe posts lately.
cheers
lOZ
03-12-04, 00:13
NBA stats...
DALLAS v HOUSTON :D (186 Normal time 186 - 219 OT)
Home: 191
Away: 173
Max: 191
Min: 173
Av: 180
Line 183.5 Gamebookers
Other factors FYI:

Last 3 H-H @ Dallas is Over
Last 3 H-H anywhere is Over
Dallas last 3 home or away is Under

Houston last 3 home or away generally is Under
Dallas last 3 @ home is Under

Houston last 3 away is Over
Dominant team: Over

Home Team: Over
( My variation places weight on home team stat and the dominant team
stat which is both Dallas)
On the balance, pick OVER (but just for fun)
I'm gong to stick with this system for a bit. Don't place any bets on it
based on its current form. just watch and make up you own mind. I have
had limited success - but all things being equal (ie no major injuries etc)
there is a trend i want to test...particularly where the home home team +
dominant team generally brings in the money on these unde/over bets.
enjoy the w/end guys!
TomPearce
03-12-04, 08:23
Thanks Tom. BTW, you've been using your variation of x/20 stats for
soccer rite? Are you finding that works better generally? Unfortunately I
haven't been able to keep up with all the posts lately.
cheers
i have only been testing this for a weeks so far so its too early to tell
really, as i said i will do it for the weeksends to come and see what
happens.
what the system is, is 5/5 for yuvalfra system

5/5 h2h
5/5 in home teams last 5 games
5/5 in away teams last 5 games
mircearos
03-12-04, 08:43
Hello Tom,
I have one question your sistem is as you said 5/5 from ( Master) Yuvalfra
and except the 5/5 from h2h it's about the same thing only that it's a bit
more confined. What I mean is that 5/5 from last 5 matches at home you
can find it in the average goals scored plus the average goals against. Is
that right?
And please excuse me if it's a silly question but I am after a white night
and full of emotions after the NBA match between Houston Rockets and
Dallas Mavericks. :D :D :D
lOZ
03-12-04, 15:56
With the NBA, I'm basically going towards Tom's rating system and
including a much wider number of relevant data (eg. h-to-h etc).
It seems that for large number of NBA games showing 5/5 stats, for some
reason these alone are generally misleading and are giving poor results. It
seem different in soccer though and I like to stick with the basic 5/5 type
games when making u/o bets.
lOZ
03-12-04, 17:07
NBA Stats... Only 1 pick today
SUNS v MINNESOTTA (PICK --> UNDER 210) 190 :D
Home: 203.5 Under

Away: 193 Under
Max = 205.5 Under
Min = 191 Under
Av = 198 Under
Last 3 H-to-H (anywhere) --> Under
Last 3 H-to-H (@Suns) --> Under
Last 3 Minnesota (anywhere) --> Under
Last 3 Minnesota (away) --> Under
Last 3 Suns (anywhere) --> Over
Last 3 Suns (@Suns) --> Over
Dominant Team: Under
Home Team weight: Under
Offensive rating: Over
Line 210 (gamebookers)
TomPearce
03-12-04, 17:32
Hello Tom,
I have one question your sistem is as you said 5/5 from ( Master) Yuvalfra
and except the 5/5 from h2h it's about the same thing only that it's a bit
more confined. What I mean is that 5/5 from last 5 matches at home you
can find it in the average goals scored plus the average goals against. Is
that right?
yuvalfras system looks at the home teams last 5 home games, where as
the extra 5 i have added on look about the home teams, home and away
form. This is the same for the away team. Yuvalfra looks at the away
teams away record, where as i am just looking at the last 5 games,
generally 3 are at home and 2 are away, or 2 are at home and 3 are
away.
Hope this has answered your question.
mircearos
03-12-04, 17:49
Aha now I got it.
Jovica S
03-12-04, 17:59
Some pick for evening:
Monaco - Rennes OVER :cry:

3/5
Brest - Angers UNDER :D

5/5
Creteil - Clermont Ferrand OVER :cry:

3/5 with HOME:2.5 and MIN:2.5
Grenoble - Lorient 2 or 3 goal :D

5/5 - 2 or 3 (also OVER 3/5, but not for me)
Montpellier - Laval UNDER :cry:

5/5
Sedan - Troyes OVER :D

3/5
Arezzo - Torino UNDER :D

4/5
TomPearce
03-12-04, 18:12
Karlscuher v Duisberg UNDER 18/20 :cry:
Cant believe it 30 mins and already 3 goals! will avoid the bundisleiga 2
as from now.[/quote]
mircearos
03-12-04, 18:20
Yeah I got a preety nice amount on it too. :cry: :cry: :cry:
Jovica S
03-12-04, 18:50
Karlscuher v Duisberg UNDER 18/20 :cry:
Cant believe it 30 mins and already 3 goals! will avoid the bundisleiga 2
as from now.[/quote]
My very nice COMBO go out.... :x
TomPearce
03-12-04, 21:27
cant beleiev them 3 early goals finished the game, in the end it stayed 3-
0. Cant beleieve it but theres always tomorrow.
lOZ
03-12-04, 23:02
Just some more NBA stats...
SPURS v PISTONS (Pick --> OVER 173) 157 :(

Home: 177 over
Away: 185 over
Max = 185 Over
Min = 177 over
Av = 181 Over
Last 3 H-to-H (@Spurs) --> over
Last 3 Spurs (anywhere) --> Over
Last 3 Spurs (@Spurs) --> over
Last 3 Pistons (anywhere) --> Under
Last 3 Pistons (away) --> Under
Dominant Team: Spurs --> over
Home Team: over
Offensive Rating: Over
Line --> 173 (Gamebookers)
**********************
BOSTON v TORONTO (PICK --> UNDER 206.5) 180 :D
185.5 Under
201 Under
Max: 201 Under
Min: 185.5 Under
Av: 193 Under
Last 3 H-to-H (@Boston --> Under
Last 3 Boston (anywhere) --> Over
Last 3 Boston (@Boston) --> Under
Last 3 Toronto (anywhere) --> Over
Last 3 Toronto (away) --> Over
Dominant Team(Boston) Under
Home Team: --> Under
Offensive Rating: --> Over
Line --> 206.5 (gamebookers)
**********************
KINGS v PACERS (No bet)
Home: 202
Away:186.5
Max: 202
Min: 186.5
Av: 192
Line --> 197 (Canbet)
mighty-duck
04-12-04, 11:33
any picks for today ?
thanks
Jovica S
04-12-04, 13:11
Norwich C. - Fulham OVER :cry:
5/5
Portsmouth - West Bromwich A. OVER :D

5/5
Brighton & Hove A. - Rotherham U. UNDER :D

4/5
Crewe Alexandra - Ipswich T. OVER :D

5/5
Derby County - Coventry C. OVER :D

5/5
Leeds U. - Leicester C. UNDER :D

4/5
Plymouth Argyle - Burnley UNDER :D

5/5
Sunderland - West Ham U. 2 OR 3 :D

5/5
Watford - Stoke C. UNDER :D

5/5
TomPearce
04-12-04, 13:32
working it out with 20 i would steer clear of the Norwich game 10/20 and
the Leeds game 9/20. But again this is my personal opinion.
Today the stats are not very definative so i am going to only stake low
today.
Pompey v W Brom OVER 14/20

Plymouth v Burnley UNDER 12/20
Watford v Stoke UNDER 13/20
Crewe v Ipswich OVER 13/20
Brighton v Rotherham UNDER 13/20
i normally go with 10 doubles!
yuvalfra
04-12-04, 14:30
Late bets...
A Villa v Liverpool
OVER 2.5 @ 2.46 [value]
Everton v Bolton
OVER 2.5 @ 2.32 [value]
Man Utd v Southampton

UNDER 2.5 @ 2.38
Norwich v Fulham
OVER 2.5 @ 2.18
Portsmouth v W Brom
OVER 2.5 @ 2.08
Bielefeld v H Rostock
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.10
Freiburg v W Bremen
OVER 2.5 @ 1.76
Hamburg v Hannover
OVER 2.5 @ 1.82
H Berlin v Mgladbach
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.10
Leverkusen v Wolfsburg
OVER 2.5 @ 1.66
Nurnberg v B Munich
Stuttgart v Bochum
OVER 2.5 @ 1.81
Parma v AC Milan
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.75
Albacete v Valencia
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.69
Barcelona v Malaga
Paris St-G v Lille

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.62
Ajaccio v Lyon
OVER 2.5 @ 2.66 [value]
Caen v Marseille
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.60
Istres v Bastia
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.56
Lens v Metz
OVER 2.5 @ 2.62 [value]
Nantes v Nice
OVER 2.5 @ 2.60 [value]
Strasbourg v Sochaux
OVER 2.5 @ 2.52 [value]
lOZ
04-12-04, 15:28
NBA picks...
Bucks v Spurs (OVER 186 gamebookers) (Result --> 187) :D
Dallas v Utah (UNDER 199.5 gamebookers) (Results --> 185) :D
rile
04-12-04, 16:00
Hi guys!
My picks for today are:
Paris SG - Lille
5/5 UNDER @ 1,6
Caen - Marseille
5/5 UNDER @ 1,6
Istres - Bastia
5/5 UNDER @ 1,5
St. Etienne - Toulouse

5/5 UNDER @ 1,6
Genclerbirligi - Galatasaray
UNDER 5/5 @ 1,9
Roosendal - Breda
OVER 5/5 @ 2,1
Nac. Fu - Leiria
UNDER 5/5 @ 1,8
Parma - Milan
UNDER 5/5 @ 1,7
GL to everyone!
Jovica S
04-12-04, 16:46
Very nice today
Premier 1/2
Championship 7/7
TomPearce
04-12-04, 16:50
nice one Jovica S, did say about the Norwich game, the leeds one was
close at the end too. but nice one,
I only bet small doubles today but
Championship 5/5 seems very good to me, if only i had it as a combo @

odds of 19.38 but still its not very often i get 5/5. Guess it must just be
luck.
Man u was also 5/5 under, but as i have said before very unpredictable so
i gave this one a miss, thank god!
Jovica S
04-12-04, 17:39
...
Championship 5/5 seems very good to me, if only i had it as a combo @
odds of 19.38 but still its not very often i get 5/5. Guess it must just be
luck.
Man u was also 5/5 under, but as i have said before very unpredictable so
i gave this one a miss, thank god!
For me England Championship it's one of most predictible league on

yuvalfra system, and risk on these games produce money.
I'm not love Premiership, but sometimes place pick, and not have succes
if play on favorite like Mancester U., Arsenal or Chelsi.
lOZ
05-12-04, 01:05
NBA...
SETATTLE v PORTLAND (Pick --> OVER 187.5) (Results 188 :D)

CLIPPERS v MINNESOTA (Pick --> UNDER 194.5 gamebookers) (OVER :( )
If not for @#$! Minnesota and Clippers hitting OT, it would have been a
nice 4/4 for the day on the new NBA method. But thats life :D
The positive thing is that at least the additional stats seem to provid a
much more accurate prediction of the outcome over past week or so and
even though lost money on Minnesota, it was good to see that it would
have ended well under. Havent quite finalised the weightings which should
be given to each stat, but getting closer to a regular method.
yuvalfra
05-12-04, 02:38
Overall stats will be posted only tomorrow due to shortage of time...
Overall loss today was 540.
I'm thinking perhaps it's time to lose the idea of "value" bets. Without
them this would be a very positive day. From now on I'll stick to 5/5
(sometimes 4/5) bets only.
rile
05-12-04, 11:52
Hi guys!
My picks for today are:
Paris SG - Lille
5/5 UNDER @ 1,6
Caen - Marseille
5/5 UNDER @ 1,6
Istres - Bastia
5/5 UNDER @ 1,5
5/5 UNDER @ 1,6
UNDER 5/5 @ 1,9
Roosendal - Breda
OVER 5/5 @ 2,1
Nac. Fu - Leiria
UNDER 5/5 @ 1,8
Parma - Milan
UNDER 5/5 @ 1,7
GL to everyone!
Paris SG - Lille
5/5 UNDER @ 1,6 :D
Caen - Marseille
5/5 UNDER @ 1,6 :(
Istres - Bastia
5/5 UNDER @ 1,5 :D

5/5 UNDER @ 1,6 :D
UNDER 5/5 @ 1,9 :(
Roosendal - Breda
OVER 5/5 @ 2,1 :(
Nac. Fu - Leiria
UNDER 5/5 @ 1,8 :(
Parma - Milan
UNDER 5/5 @ 1,7 :(
Jovica S
05-12-04, 12:30
Some interesting pick for today:
Cagliari - Chievo :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Fiorentina - Bologna :D
5/5 UNDER
Juventus - Lazio :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Udinese - Siena :D
4/5 UNDER
Ascoli - Ternana :cry:

5/5 OVER
Bari - Venezia :D
5/5 UNDER
Vicenza - Empoli :D
4/5 OVER
Kaiserslautern - Mainz :cry:

5/5 OVER
Racing Santander - Deportivo La Coruna :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Auxerre - Bordeaux :D
4/5 UNDER
Young Boys Bern - Zurich :D

5/5 OVER
lOZ
05-12-04, 15:42
NBA stats...
KINGS v CELTICS (Pick --> UNDER) (Result 224) :(
105 97 = 202 Under

103.5 99 = 202.5 Under
Max: 208.5 Over
Min: 196 Under
Av: 202 Under

Last 3 H-to-H (@kings --> Under
Last 3 kings (anywhere) --> Under
Last 3 kings (@kings) --> Over
Last 3 Celtics (anywhere)--> Under
Last 3 Celtics (away) --> Over
Dominant Team (historical and/or league table): (Kings) Under
Home Team: Under
Bookies Line --> 206.5 (gamebookers)
The only conern I have with this match is that the majority of last 3
games the kings have played at home, and the majority of last 3 games
Celtics have played away hae all gone over the 206.5 line. However, I
believe that the other stats outweighs this concerns and my money is on
the under.
***********************************
BLAZERS v SUNS (No Bet) (Result 220)
Home: 187 Under

Away: 200 Over
Max: 201 Over
Min: 185.5 Under
Av: 193 Under
Last 3 H-to-H (anywhere) --> Over

Last 3 H-to-H (@Blazers) --> Over
Last 3 Blazers (anywhere) --> Under
Last 3 Blazers (@Blazers) --> Under
Last 3 Suns (anywhere)--> Over
Last 3 Suns (away) --> Over
Dominant Team (historical and/or league table): (Blazers) Under

Home Team: Over
Bookies Line --> 194.5 (gamebookers)
I am too chicken to make a pick on this game simply because the stats
are all over the place - pretty much 50/50 for under/over. If I were forced
to make a pick I would probably go for the OVer 194 here (but I won't put
money on this) because the method gives weight to the dominant team to
drive or restrict the scoreline...but just a game to watch and no bet.
******************************
Some tough ones, but hopefully using the extended stats method we will
have some beer money compliments of the Kings n Celtics today :D
Post-Match Comments: In hindsight, the stats on Portland match maybe

werent so bad afterall. But everything is easy in hindsight... :(
yuvalfra
05-12-04, 16:06
Santander v Deportivo
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.76
Mallorca v Numancia
OVER 2.5 @ 2.40
Villarreal v R Madrid
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90
Atl Madrid v Osasuna

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.69
Braga v Penafiel
OVER 2.5 @ 1.94
Auxerre v Bordeaux
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.61
Gil Vicente v Rio Ave

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.80
Moreirense v Boavista
OVER 2.5 @ 2.28
Setubal v Maritimo
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.70
Kaisers. v Mainz
OVER 2.5 @ 1.82
yuvalfra
05-12-04, 21:32
Is our system starting to get disproved?
Santander v Deportivo
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.76 :(
Mallorca v Numancia
OVER 2.5 @ 2.40 :D
Villarreal v R Madrid
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90 :D
Atl Madrid v Osasuna

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.69 :(
Braga v Penafiel
OVER 2.5 @ 1.94 :(
Auxerre v Bordeaux
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.61 :D
Gil Vicente v Rio Ave

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.80 :(
Moreirense v Boavista
OVER 2.5 @ 2.28 :(
Setubal v Maritimo
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.70 :D
Kaisers. v Mainz
OVER 2.5 @ 1.82 :(
CURRENT:
4 won bes, 6 lost bets (40% accuracy)

Overall: -239
OVERALL:

New bank: 2,291
mircearos
06-12-04, 09:24
Bank: 1000
My picks for today:

5/5 Chateauxroux - Dijon Under @1.46 (2-1) :( goal in 83rdminute.
5/5 Benfica - Estoril Over @1.71 (HT 2-1) :D
Stake 100 each + 100 combo. :(
Possible win 146+171+249.66=566.66
Actual Bank 700.
Bank : 871
Magical
06-12-04, 13:24
Yuvalfra, the system is near to 50 % now (54%).
* Do you think your % will go up or go down ??
* Can you beat the theorie that all system afters many bets will go down
to 50-52% ??
* why systems (after a good start : 60% won after 50 bets), always go
down after 100 or 150 bets ??? it's crazy !!!!! this always the same thing
!!!
* Wiches parameters we forget ?? i don't understand.
* Wich conclusion do we made ???
* it's impossible to stay to 60% and constantly ????
I hope no..... :roll: :roll:
CG
06-12-04, 13:34
It seems to me that the further a season progresses, the lower the strike-
rate.....or to put it another way, as each team plays more games, the hit-
rate of the system seems to be balancing itself out. Have you thought
about only applying the system to the last 20 games for example and then
keep this figure constant?
lOZ
06-12-04, 14:36
DALLAS v DETROIT
Home: 191* Over

Away: 180 Under
Max: 191 Over
Min: 180 Under
Av: 185.5 Equal
Last 3 H-H @Home Team: Over

Last 3 H-H All Over *
Last 3 Home Team @Home Over
Last 3 Home Team All Over
Last 3 Away Team Away: Under
Last 3 Away Team All: Under
Dominant Team (Dallas): Over

Home Team: Over

PICK --> OVER
*********************************
The Stats point to a clear OVER in this match.
yuvalfra
06-12-04, 15:30
I don't think the problem is in the stats. The further the season goes the
more accurate or balanced the stats are, as they are calculated from
many games to produce a single average, whereas after 5-6 games a
couple of very unexpected results would tilt the stats in one direction.
I think the system either works or doesn't work. We can only change
some small things. What I'm thinking about though, is what was the effect
of VALUE bets on all of this. Perhaps it was just a stroke of luck to win
many value bets at high odds and thus produce profit, and then the more
profit was made the more value bets were placed, which eventually began
losing and producing loss.
We'll see if in the next few days the situation gets better without value
bets, eventhough yesterday was without any and still was a loss, but
wasn't a major one.
What we need to investigate is wether this system will work in the long
run. You can't expect to be in profit every single day, but rather every
week or month. What I'm questioning is wether if the system was started
right now, would it produce profit in one month's time?
We'll see...
Jovica S
06-12-04, 18:42
Bank: 1000
My picks for today:

5/5 Chateauxroux - Dijon Under @1.46
5/5 Benfica - Estoril Over @1.71
Stake 100 each + 100 combo.
Possible win 146+171+249.66=566.66
Actual Bank 700.
Good choice.
I'm go this two and next pick:
Munich 1860 - Greuther Furth

3/5 OVER :D
Triestina - Piacenza
5/5 2OR3 (or 3/5 UNDER 2.5) exactly 2 goal :D :D
Middlesbrough - Manchester C. :cry: :evil:

5/5 2OR3
Jovica S
06-12-04, 21:55

to 50-52% ??
!!!

* For my picks, system is about 57%. But because small price on these
picks, I have only 2% price on stacked money.
* The best results show, if have small number of game, like friday or
monday, and if play with combo.
* Also good results it's on some legaue like Championship and French I
and French II.
* System give worse results on value pick, and I'm not play on him. I'm
espect this from start because this is not mathematics espect on result.
This is error of quota on some bookies.
* When championships on first part of seson near end, loses pick rise.
This is maybe because team transform tactics or change coach.
* I'm, also espect decrease on league where we have good results.
* I'm testing system on irish, on the end season, and have 4/5 good pick.
* On yesterday (sunday), I'm testing system on pick who have 4/5 value.
Only max or min out. These pick you will see, it's 3/3 good pick:
Udinese - Siena 4/5 UNDER; Vicenza - Empoli 4/5 OVER; Auxerre -
Bordeaux 4/5 UNDER.
* Statiscs say that we have not 100% safe event. On this system it's
interesting: small number of games on one day (or same time), produce
more succes.
* We must always testing, and import news, if want succes. Maybe cup
games, or representation games...
:) :) :)
lOZ
06-12-04, 22:39
to 50-52% ??
!!!

* For my picks, system is about 57%. But because small price on these
picks, I have only 2% price on stacked money.
* The best results show, if have small number of game, like friday or
monday, and if play with combo.
* Also good results it's on some legaue like Championship and French I
and French II.
* System give worse results on value pick, and I'm not play on him. I'm
espect this from start because this is not mathematics espect on result.
This is error of quota on some bookies.
* When championships on first part of seson near end, loses pick rise.
This is maybe because team transform tactics or change coach.
* I'm, also espect decrease on league where we have good results.
* I'm testing system on irish, on the end season, and have 4/5 good pick.
* On yesterday (sunday), I'm testing system on pick who have 4/5 value.
Only max or min out. These pick you will see, it's 3/3 good pick:
Udinese - Siena 4/5 UNDER; Vicenza - Empoli 4/5 OVER; Auxerre -
Bordeaux 4/5 UNDER.
* Statiscs say that we have not 100% safe event. On this system it's
interesting: small number of games on one day (or same time), produce
more succes.
* We must always testing, and import news, if want succes. Maybe cup
games, or representation games...
:) :) :)
Excellent observations Jovica. I agree with the comment that the biggest
losses tend to come when betting on many games at once. Perhaps this is
becaus less time is spent screening out individual games for ther
likelihood of success...(may be just bad luck too).
Macot
06-12-04, 23:57
Exactly!
This is one of the important rules in betting, dont bet at too many games,
which are played at the same time!
I would add, that there might be some reasons to that, which are still
beyond our understanding, but the point is... FOCUS on one bet at the
time!
:wink:
lOZ
07-12-04, 03:34
DALLAS v DETROIT
Home: 191* Over

Away: 180 Under
Max: 191 Over
Min: 180 Under
Av: 185.5 Equal

Last 3 H-H All Over *
Last 3 Home Team @Home Over
Dominant Team (Dallas): Over

Home Team: Over

PICK --> OVER
*********************************
The Stats point to a clear OVER in this match.
RESULT --> 186 :D

Maybe Not a "clear over" but i'll take it all the same... 8)
yuvalfra
07-12-04, 14:14
ANNOUNCEMENT:
In 2 days I'm unfortunately recruiting to the army.

Due to that at least in the next month or so I will not have time to keep
with the strategy, and my free time even after this period will be
questionable.
So, unless someone volunteers to keep the system test going (in addition
to lOZ's NBA picks), this means the system has come to a dead end as far
as testing it in an orderly fashion.
Jovica S
07-12-04, 15:29
Exactly!
This is one of the important rules in betting, dont bet at too many games,
which are played at the same time!
I would add, that there might be some reasons to that, which are still
beyond our understanding, but the point is... FOCUS on one bet at the
time!
:wink:
Macot, this is exactly what I'm not have to say (maybe my bad english).
Playing one games for my opinion it's just lucky. I'm play with this system
about 240 games and 43 combo for one month.
For this system it's interesting: if have one game today from unpredictible
league, it's easy to get positive pick. This situation is typical for monday.
Jovica S
07-12-04, 15:31
Testing on: England - League One and England - League Two
Blackpool - Torquay U. :D
5/5 OVER
Colchester U. - Barnsley :D -2 goal

5/5 2OR3 (5/5 OVER) expect 3 goal
Walsall - Hartlepool U. :D
5/5 OVER
Darlington - Mansfield T. :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Bristol R. - Chester C. :cry:

5/5 2OR3 (5/5 UNDER) expect 2 goal
Bury - Wycombe W. :cry:

4/5 UNDER
Leyton Orient - Southend U. :D

5/5 OVER
Macclesfield T. - Lincoln C. :cry:
4/5 UNDER
Shrewsbury T. - Rochdale :D
5/5 2OR3 (5/5 UNDER) expext 2 goal :D
lOZ
07-12-04, 21:04
NBA Stats....
MEMPHIS v NY (PICK --> OVER 190)

Home: 182 Under (Increasing +2)
Away: 196.5 Over (Increasing +7)
Max: 196.5 Over
Min: 182 Under
Av: 189 Under
Last 3 H-H All: Over
Last 3 Home Team @Home: Under
Last 3 Home Team All Under
Last 3 Away Team Away: Over
Last 3 Away Team All: Over
Dominant Team: Equal
Home Team: Under
Offensive Rating: Equal
Bookies Line --> 190 Gamebookers
*****************************
MINNESOTA v DALLAS (No BeT)
Home:198 Under (increasing)
Away: 192.5 Under (decreasing
Max: 199.5 Under
Min: 191 Under
Av: 195 Under
Last 3 H-H All: Over
Last 3 Home Team @Home: Over
Home Team: Under
Bookies Line --> 203 Gamebookers
***********************************
KINGS v BOBCATS (Pick --> OVER 202.5)
Home: 205 Over (Increasing)
Away: 179.5 Under (same)
Max: 205 Over
Min: 179.5 Under
Av: 190 Under
Last 3 H-H @Home Team: None
Last 3 H-H All: None
Last 3 Home Team All: Under
Dominant Team: Over
Home Team: Over
Bookies Line --> 202.5 Gamebookers
*********************************
SUNS v GSW (NO BeT)

Home: 201 Under (increasing)
Away: 179.5 Under (increasing)
Max: 201 Under
Min: 179.5 Under
Av: 190 Under
Last 3 H-H All: Under
Last 3 Home Team All: Over
Home Team: Under
Bookies Line --> 204.5 Gamebookers
************************************
INDIANA v BUCKS (PICK --> OVER 189)

Home: 184.5 Under (increasing)
Away: 194 Over (increasing)
Max: 194 Over
Min: 184.5 Under
Av: 189.5 Over
Last 3 H-H @Home Team: Equal
Last 3 H-H All: Equal
Last 3 Home Team All: Over
Last 3 Away Team Away: Over
Dominant Team: Over
Home Team: Under
Bookies Line --> 189 Canbet
****************************
Good Luck!!
Jovica S
07-12-04, 21:30
Tonight on England One and Two
5/9 :)
dino
09-12-04, 14:57
Hello! As I saw you have to deal with under over bets in this topic and I
need help about that. Im looking for a site or anything where I can find
stats on U/O for each team in NBA separately for this season how they
were playing from the first match till the last one! Like Utah has o u u o u
o o o.... etc for all teams! Many thanks!!!
CG
09-12-04, 15:04
www.covers.com
dino
09-12-04, 15:09
Many thanks that was quick!! :wink:
Elessar_TR
09-12-04, 19:09
After 2 weeks I have to come to this conclusion;
2,1 > under

2,9 < over
it is quite efficient in Serie A , Premiership , Ligue 1..... I have made some
good money in the last 2 weeks.
thx yuvalfra.....
Jovica S
10-12-04, 10:10
Pick for today:
West Ham U. - Leeds U. :D

5/5 UNDER
Cesena - Genoa :cry:

5/5 OVER
Greuther Furth - Alemannia Aachen

4/5 UNDER
"67' [2 - 1] M. Feinbier" :cry:
COMBO @ 5.05 :cry:
dickiebow
10-12-04, 14:07
Elessar
Can you explain please ?
Jovica S
11-12-04, 09:30
Manchester C. - Tottenham H.
5/5 UNDER
Norwich C. - Bolton W.
5/5 OVER
England - League Championship
Cardiff C. - Sunderland
5/5 UNDER
Crewe Alexandra - Plymouth Argyle

5/5 OVER
Leicester C. - Reading
5/5 UNDER
Millwall - Brighton & Hove A.

5/5 UNDER
Stoke C. - Coventry C.
3/5 UNDER
England - League One
Bradford C. - Walsall
5/5 OVER
Hartlepool U. - Stockport County

5/5 OVER
Oldham Athletic - Huddersfield T

5/5 OVER
Peterborough U. - Chesterfield
5/5 UNDER
England - League Two
Notts County - Wycombe W.

5/5 UNDER (5/5 2OR3) expect 2 goal.
Jovica S
11-12-04, 10:06
Germany - Bundesliga I.
Bochum - Hamburger SV :D
5/5 OVER
Schalke - Freiburg :cry:

5/5 OVER
Werder Bremen - Kaiserslautern :cry:

5/5 OVER
Italy - Serie A
Atalanta - Udinese :cry:

5/5 2OR3 (3/5 UNDER) expect 2 goal (only 0:1)
Lazio - Lecce :D
5/5 OVER

Albacete - Barcelona :cry:
5/5 UNDER
Spain - Segunda Division

Eibar - Nastic :D
5/5 UNDER
Xerez - Sporting Gijon :D

5/5 UNDER
France - Ligue 1
Marseille - Auxerre :D
5/5 UNDER (5/5 2OR3) expect 2 goal. (only 0:1)
More picks later.
TomPearce
11-12-04, 11:31
it will be interedting to see it this system work in the lower leagues today,
i feel that we just need to pick out certain game maybe max of 3 or 5 a
day then this system will become more accurtae rather than say 20 pick in
one day.
Jovica S
11-12-04, 14:40
This is like SF, but why not:
France - Ligue 1
Bastia - Monaco :)
5/5 UNDER
Last 5 years when Bastia home:
03/04 0:0
02/03 1:0
01/02 1:0
00/01 0:2
99/00 1:0
Bordeaux - Lyon :)
4/5 UNDER
Last 5 years when Bordeaux home:
03/04 1:1
02/03 0:1
01/02 0:1
00/01 1:1
99/00 1:3
Lille - Nantes :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Last 5 when Lille home:
03/04 2:0
02/03 0:1
01/02 1:0
00/01 1:1
96/97 3:3
Metz - Strasbourg :)
5/5 UNDER
Last 5 when Metz home:
03/04 1:0
00/01 1:0
99/00 0:0
98/99 1:0
97/98 1:0
Nice - Ajaccio :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Last 5 when Nice home:
03/04 2:2
02/03 3:0
01/02 3:1
00/01 1:0
99/00 0:1
Rennes - Lens :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Last 5 when Rennes home:
03/04 2:0
02/03 1:1
01/02 1:2
00/01 1:0
99/00 3:0
Toulouse - Istres :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Last years:
03/04 1:0; 4:0
Price on my local bokies is small for under and I deceide to play only next
COMBO:
Bastia - Monaco UNDER @1.5

Lille - Nantes UNDER @1.5
Metz - Strasbourg UNDER @1.5
Rennes - Lens UNDER @1.55
Toulouse - Istres UNDER @1.5
@7.85 - stake 4 euros :(
ANY SUGESTIONS...
TomPearce
11-12-04, 14:46
always worth a try to see if h2h in the past years will work. we will soon
see i am sure.
Jovica S
11-12-04, 18:10
First part it's very succesful: :D :D :D

2/2 :D :D :D
Manchester C. - Tottenham H. :D
5/5 UNDER
Norwich C. - Bolton W. :D
5/5 OVER

5/5 :D :D :D
Cardiff C. - Sunderland :D
5/5 UNDER
Crewe Alexandra - Plymouth Argyle :D

5/5 OVER
Leicester C. - Reading :D
5/5 UNDER
Millwall - Brighton & Hove A. :D

5/5 UNDER
Stoke C. - Coventry C. :D
3/5 UNDER

2/4
Bradford C. - Walsall :cry:

5/5 OVER
Hartlepool U. - Stockport County :D

5/5 OVER
Oldham Athletic - Huddersfield T :D

5/5 OVER
Peterborough U. - Chesterfield :cry:

5/5 UNDER

1/1
Notts County - Wycombe W. :D
5/5 UNDER (5/5 2OR3) expect 2 goal. only 0:1
Summary: 10/12 (83.33%)
Jovica S
11-12-04, 22:06
Results today:
England - Premier League 2/2 :D
England - League Championship 5/5 :D :D :D
England - League One 2/4 :)
England - League Two 1/1 :D
Germany - Bundesliga I. 1/3 :cry:
Italy - Serie A 1/2 :)
Spain - Primera Division 0/1 :cry:
Spain - Segunda Division 2/2 :D
France - Ligue 1 1/1 :D
France - Ligue 1 COMBO :cry:
Conclusion
21 picks; 16 good (76.19%)

Very good day.
- Second weeks in a row England - League Championship where I have
100% succes. For me this is the best league for this system. About 75%
good picks (I'm think 25/33).
- After first good picks, bad results on France - Ligue 1, it's not terrible.
- Play under on big team like Barcelona always risk.
- Spain segunda also give good results.
Jovica S
12-12-04, 08:57
Today we have only a few picks who have 4/5 and 5/5.
Because I decide to play some 3/5:

Aston Villa - Birmingham C. :cry:
4/5 UNDER
Italy - Serie A
Chievo - Palermo :cry:

5/5 UNDER
AC Milan - Fiorentina :cry:

3/5 UNDER
Sampdoria - Messina :D
3/5 UNDER
Italy - Serie B
Pescara - Ascoli :cry:

4/5 OVER
Piacenza - Bari :cry:

3/5 OVER
Ternana - Albinoleffe :D
5/5 UNDER
Torino - Catanzaro :cry:

4/5 UNDER
Switzerland - Super League

Young Boys Bern - Neuchatel Xamax :D
5/5 OVER
Holland - Holland Casino Eredivisie

De Graafschap - NEC Nijmegen :cry:
3/5 UNDER
Jovica S
12-12-04, 10:46
More picks:
Getafe - Villarreal :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Deportivo La Coruna - Sevilla :D

3/5 OVER
Espanyol - Mallorca :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Spain - Segunda Division
Lleida - Almeria :D
4/5 UNDER
Pontevedra - Real Murcia :cry:

3/5 OVER
France - Ligue 1 :D
Sochaux - Paris S.G.
5/5 2OR3 (3/5 UNDER) expect 2 goal.
Any sugestions?
Jovica S
12-12-04, 16:10
For now only 3/10 (30%).
Jovica S
12-12-04, 22:05
Today:
6/16 (37/5%)
This week (satday and sunday):

satday: 16/21
sunday: 6/16
22/37 or 59.46%
CG
12-12-04, 22:19
How can Sochaux v PSG be a smiley?
Yes, you've put 2 or 3 goals, but you've also put under 3/5 and expect 2
goals so how are you supposed to decide wether to take over or under?
Jovica S
12-12-04, 22:41
How can Sochaux v PSG be a smiley?
Yes, you've put 2 or 3 goals, but you've also put under 3/5 and expect 2
goals so how are you supposed to decide wether to take over or under?
I say one time before. I play on local bookies, and for all games i'm have
pick 2OR3 goal. Price for this game is 1.80. If you look my post before,
I'm always play first pick. Second pick it's only possibility. If good I'm
happy, but his not play, and not go in statistics.
CG
12-12-04, 22:45
Okay, just wondered :wink:
Jovica S
12-12-04, 22:47
No problem :) :)
haeras
14-12-04, 11:25
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2004 9:09 pm Post subject:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After 2 weeks I have to come to this conclusion;
2,1 > under

2,9 < over
it is quite efficient in Serie A , Premiership , Ligue 1..... I have made some
good money in the last 2 weeks.
thx yuvalfra.....
Elessar
Can you explain please ?
I am not Elessar but let me explain what i understand from his post.
He is comparing result of yuvalfra to 2.9 for over games to 2.1 for under
games instead of 2.5
for example.. A Team vs- B Team Stats (from yuvalfra calculations)
2.6
3.1
3.0
3.2
2.7
in yuvlfra's system this is counted as 5/5 but in Elessar's system it's
counted as 3/5 same for under..
Jovica S
16-12-04, 21:45
This is possibility for friday. Definitive picks I'm place tomorrow. If you
have sugestion place it. :)
Belgien 1. Liga
Mons - Anderlecht
5/5 UNDER (5/5 2OR3)
England Championship
Brighton - Stoke City

5/5 UNDER
Nottingham - Leicester
5/5 UNDER (5/5 2OR3)
England League Two 22.Runde
Grimsby - Oxford
5/5 2OR3 (3/5 UNDER)
Southend - Chester Fr,

5/5 OVER (5/5 2OR3 )
Frankreich 1.Liga
Lyon - Marseille
5/5 UNDER
Frankreich 2.Liga
Angers - Sedan
5/5 UNDER
Dijon - Montpellier
5/5 UNDER (3/5 UNDER 1.5)
Guingamp - Le Havre
5/5 2OR3 (3/5 UNDER)
Laval - Creteil
5/5 UNDER
Nancy - Grenoble
5/5 UNDER (5/5 2OR3)
Niort - Gueugnon
5/5 UNDER
Troyes - Chateauroux
5/5 UNDER
Holland 1.Liga
Twente - NAC Breda
5/5 OVER 2.5 (3/5 OVER 3.5)
Italien Serie B
Catania - Salernitana
3/5 UNDER
Portugal 1.Liga
FC Porto - Moreirense
5/5 2OR3
Türkei 1.Liga
Denizlispor - Galatasaray
4/5 UNDER
Jovica S
17-12-04, 13:03
OK,
I bet on next picks:
Brighton & Hove A. - Stoke C. :D

5/5 UNDER
Nottingham F. - Leicester C. :D
5/5 UNDER
Grimsby T. - Oxford U. :D
5/5 UNDER
Lyon - Marseille :D
5/5 UNDER
Angers - Sedan :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Dijon - Montpellier :D
5/5 UNDER
Guingamp - Le Havre :cry:

5/5 2OR3
Nancy - Grenoble :D
5/5 2OR3
Niort - Gueugnon :D
5/5 UNDER
And COMBO:
Angers - Sedan UNDER :cry:
Dijon - Montpellier UNDER :D
Niort - Gueugnon UNDER :D
Brighton - Stoke C. UNDER
@4.55 :cry:
Jovica S
17-12-04, 22:42
Good single picks tonight:
7/9 (77.7%)
burakunderover
17-12-04, 23:49
Good single picks tonight:
7/9 (77.7%)
i think this system is perfect.. !!
thanks..
everytime i look your opinions.. and here my ;
for everybody..
Juventus v AC Milan <2.5 @ 1.60 :D

Bologna v Reggina <2.5 @ 1.65 :D
Lens v Bastia <2.5 @ 1.55 :(
Nantes v Sochaux <2.5 @ 1.55 :(
Fenerbahçe v Konyaspor >2.5 @ 1.45 :D
Real Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao >2.5 @ 1.95 :(
Villarreal v Malaga <2.5 @ 1.60 :(
Sakaryaspor v Malatya >2.5 @ 1.60 :D
AS Roma v Parma >2.5 @ 1.79 :D
Inter Milan v Brescia >2.5 @ 1.60 :(
Portsmouth v Arsenal >2.5 @ 1.85 :(
Jovica S
18-12-04, 09:56
Thanks to burakunderover
:D

Gillingham - Rotherham U. :cry:
4/5 UNDER
Plymouth - Derby County :D

5/5 UNDER (5/5 2OR3)
Preston - West Ham U. :D

5/5 2OR3 (3/5 OVER)
Sunderland - Burnley :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Wolverhampton - Crewe Alexandra :cry:

5/5 OVER
Bristol C. - Luton T. :D
5/5 OVER
Hull C. - Tranmere R. :cry:

4/5 UNDER
Shrewsbury T. - Mansfield T. :D
5/5 UNDER
Boston U. - Darlington :cry:

4/5 UNDER
Leyton Orient - Yeovil :D

5/5 OVER
Jovica S
18-12-04, 16:15
Tonight picks:
Racing Santander - Real Madrid :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Caen - Toulouse :D
5/5 UNDER
Lokeren - Charleroi :D
4/5 UNDER
RBC Roosendaal - AZ Alkmaar :cry:

5/5 OVER
burakunderover
18-12-04, 20:06
serie B
Genoa v Empoli >2.5 19 Dec 04 15:00 CET

Verona v Vicenza >2.5 19 Dec 04 15:00 CET
Ternana v Pescara <2.5 19 Dec 04 15:00 CET
Jovica S
18-12-04, 21:41
Only 50% today.
7/14
Jovica S
19-12-04, 12:34
Burakunderover, one your pick maybe not good:
"Sakaryaspor v Malatya >2.5 @ 1.60"; only 3/5 OVER
I'm play today next picks (odds i's from my local bokies):
Bologna - Reggina
5/5 UNDER @1.60 :D
AS Roma - Parma :D
5/5 OVER @1.65
Arezzo - Perugia :cry:

3/5 UNDER @1.60
Genoa - Empoli :D
4/5 OVER @1.90
Triestina - Torino :D
5/5 UNDER @1.65
Verona - Vicenza :D
5/5 OVER @1.75
burakunderover
19-12-04, 13:30
Jovica S , i am from turkey..
sakarya - malatya
i think it is over .. when look their average goals and league situations..
thanks... :)
Jovica S
19-12-04, 13:50
OK
sakarya - malatya '90 4:1 :)
burakunderover
19-12-04, 15:59
Genoa v Empoli >2.5 :D
Verona v Vicenza >2.5 :D
Ternana v Pescara <2.5 :D
Jovica S
19-12-04, 17:13
Nice pick today.
5/6 83%
friday: 7/9 :D
satday: 7/14 :?
sunday: 5/6 :D
Summary: 19/29 (65.5%) :D
CSKAREV
19-12-04, 22:46
Jovica S I want to ask you something-please write in your posts about the
profit you got from your picks! It will be easier to understand if the
system is really good. please write your stakes and then the final
results(win-loss-profit)
bettor
20-12-04, 11:26
Jovica S I want to ask you something-please write in your posts about the
profit you got from your picks! It will be easier to understand if the
system is really good. please write your stakes and then the final
results(win-loss-profit)
Yep, that is true because it is hard to estimate the current balance of your
bankroll when we just know the number of your winning and losing picks
:wink:
mircearos
20-12-04, 12:19
Hey Jovica S it seams that you are the only one left posting the picks
consistently TomPearce got lost on the way.
Good job by the way and let's hope that Yuvalfra has an easy time in his
military service ( we all know how hard it is over there).
So any picks for tonight?
CSKAREV
20-12-04, 12:45
I'm expecting today's picks too!and please follow our advices to post your
current balance :arrow:
Jovica S
20-12-04, 16:40
Thanks to mircearos on support.
I'm try to post picks when yuvalfra come on, from military service.
Some explanation to CSKAREV and BETTOR:
I'm very busy, and not have enough time to place and explain all picks.
One reason it's that i'm not good speek, and write english.
In the last time, I'm calculate only week for week. Number of picks now
(for 7 week) is enormnly high, and request much more time.
If you want to see my first and second week go on page 11-15 (i think).
You probably see, my picks not have odds, because i'm play on local
bokies, and on Internet you will find high odds.
Tonight, i'm probably not have enough time to alalize games, because i'm
write this post half hour.
If I have, i'm post picks.
lOZ
20-12-04, 16:47
Jovica, you are doing a fantastic job. Keep it up. I am glad to see that
Yuvalfra's work is continuing here.
Give some picks now please!!! :D
lOZ
20-12-04, 16:52
Just one pick in the NBA for today:
Philly v Utah
Pick over 195 using the usual method. :D (Result --> 204)
Probably will end up over 200 in my opinion.
Jovica S
20-12-04, 16:55
Tonight we not have safe picks.
Maybe:
Charlton Athletic - Fulham :D

3/5 OVER (with two value = 2.5)
Ascoli - Cesena
3/5 UNDER (with two value = 2.5)
:cry:
German Hero
20-12-04, 19:41
Put i something wrong?
I used the programm from cyan.
Thats my steps:
I put ins the home stats from Charlton and the way stast from Fulham.
Avrg.: 2
I put the main stats from Charlton and Fulham.

Avrg.: 2
What do Jovica S different? Make I some mistakes??
Please help me!
Jovica S
20-12-04, 20:41
Charlton Athletic - Fulham
Charlton Athletic - home 12:8 8 games
Fulham - away 10:12 8 games
System say:
1. avg home 2.5
2. avg away 2.75
3. max value 2.75
4. min value 2.5
5. avg min/max 2.625
This game it's 3/5 over and two value 2.5.
CSKAREV
20-12-04, 22:33
Jovica S thanks for the picks. I played Charlton OVER and now I'm
celebrating my profit! Keep goin! I'm waiting for your next picks and some
new deas about your strategy
mircearos
20-12-04, 23:48
For GERMAN HERO:
Cyan's calculator has some problems with Windows XP he said. I use it
just for the first part, the second part where you compare which is smaller
and which is bigger i use a normal calculator.
That is probably why Jovica S has some different results than you do. Or it
may be that you are using other statistics.
I use www.soccerway.com And never had any problems.
mircearos
21-12-04, 02:40
For IOZ thank you very much for the pick tonight.
I made some money with it. Although I was a bit afraid at the end.
My bets were over 195, and small amounts on Jazz and Handicap on Jazz.
Tha match finished 103:101 in the last 4 seconds they did this.Till then
they were equal 101:101. So allmost to lose one bet. But in the end
everything was fine.
Thanks again and keep up the good work.
lOZ
21-12-04, 03:11
For IOZ thank you very much for the pick tonight.
I made some money with it. Although I was a bit afraid at the end.
My bets were over 195, and small amounts on Jazz and Handicap on Jazz.
Tha match finished 103:101 in the last 4 seconds they did this.Till then
they were equal 101:101. So allmost to lose one bet. But in the end
everything was fine.
Thanks again and keep up the good work.
Thanks mircearos. I was like you except i put a very small punt on Utah to
win - which was a good idea in the end. :D
Also, just out of interst. When I make a pick on the NBA based on the
stats, in most casts, if the bet is correct, the over will be at least 3-4
points over and vice versa. Some bookies such as Bet365 allow you to
shift the line (eg. from over 195 to over 198) for better odds. If I am
confident about a pick, I will shift hte line by about 3 points to get odds of
about 2.25+.
Loz
mircearos
21-12-04, 10:30
That is very nice of you to share it with us. I do not have an account with
bet365 I only have with GameBookers :( .
Jovica S
21-12-04, 15:02
Tonight, we have some interesting games. And France - Coupe De La
Ligue. Cup games not in this system, but on French i'm think will be good.
Spain - Primera Division :D

Barcelona - Levante
4/5 OVER
Spain - Segunda Division :cry:

Eibar - Recreativo Huelva
5/5 UNDER
France - Coupe De La Ligue
Bastia - Lens :D
4/5 UNDER
After last game on saturday Lens - Bastia HT/FT 1:0/2:1, i'm think this
game under and probably draw.
Clermont Ferrand - Dijon :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Monaco - Guingamp :cry:

Monako home: 16:13 - 9
Guingamp away: 8:17 - 10
4/5 OVER
Montpellier - Paris S.G. :cry:

Montpellier home: 13:9 - 10
Paris S.G. away: 11:15 - 10
5/5 2OR3 (3/5 UNDER)
lOZ
21-12-04, 15:25
NBA Pick for today:
Again, only one game for me.
NY Nicks v Dallas
Pick Under 200 @ 1.95 Bet365 :( (217)
Its a 5/5 under, but the only concern with this bet is that in the past H-to-
H the game total has generally been over 200. 8O
I don't recommend others do this, but I will do what I normally do now

and take the shifted odds at Bet365 at Under 199 for slightly better odds
of 2.05 as I have the impression that the total will be about 195-198 at
most.
Good luck!
lOZ
21-12-04, 16:22
Actually, there is another NBA pick I think is worth a punt:
Cleveland v Minnesota :( (204)
Pick Under 197

5/5
Jovica S
21-12-04, 20:54
Barcelona - Levante
86' [2 - 1] S. Eto'o :D
Eibar - Recreativo Huelva

90' [1 - 2] E. Viqueira :cry:
Jovica S
21-12-04, 22:08
Bad luck tonight.
Only 2/6 picks (33%).
Also odds it's small, and backing only 2.95/6 (about 50%).
Magical
22-12-04, 12:53
Jovica,
Can you give a big recap since you start this system please ??
I think it's very important to know % of success after many picks
* Played ...
Won ....
Lost ...
% .....
Thank you very much :wink:
Jovica S
22-12-04, 17:13
I'm try to make this in next few day.
Jovica S
22-12-04, 17:24
Tonight picks:
Albacete - Villarreal :cry:

5/5 UNDER @1.5
Malaga - Real Sociedad :cry:

5/5 UNDER @1.65
Valencia - Espanyol :cry:
5/5 UNDER @1.70
Almeria - Nastic :D
5/5 UNDER @1.45
Terrassa - Celta de Vigo :cry:

4/5 UNDER @1.55
Also combo with all 5 picks @9.46
Jovica S
22-12-04, 22:21
Ha, Ha SPAIN:
1/5 :x
Jovica S
22-12-04, 22:36
Recap
FIRST 3 week:
120/213 (accuracy 56.33%)
Start bank: 40 euro
New bank: 49.88
Here, calculate only single game, without combo.
Stake on all picks it's 2 euro

Starting bank: 40 euro
First number it's god picks; second - number of bets; third - profit; fourth
- stake;
1. weeks: 12-17. nov.

59/98 (60%);
stake: 196; price: 228.86
profit: 32.86
New bank: 72.86
12. nov.: 9/11 (81.8%); 34/22; bank: +12 euro

13. nov.: 22/38 (66.67%); 97.9/76; bank: +21.9 euro
14. nov.: 15/29 (51.7%); 51.56/58; bank: -6.44 euro
15. nov.: 5/5 (100%); 17.8/10; bank: +7.8 euro
16. nov.: 5/7 (71.4%); 17.4/14; bank: +3.4 euro
17. nov.: 3/8 (37.5%); 10.2/16; bank: -5.8 euro
2. weeks: 19-25. nov.

34/71
profit: -28.17
New bank: 44.69
19. nov.: 6/12 (50%); 20.1/24; bank: -3.9

20. nov.: 18/30 (60%); 58.4/60; bank: -1.6
21. nov.: 7/16 (43.75); 24.13/32; bank: -7.87
22. nov.: 2/5 (40%); 7.7/10; bank: -2.3
23. nov.: 1/5 (20%); 3.5/10: bank: -6.5
24. nov.: 0/3 (0%); 0/6; bank: -6
3. weeks: 26-29. nov.

27/44
stake: 88; price:93.19
profit: + 5.19
New bank: 49.88
26. nov.: 6/8 (75%); 20.8/16; bank: +4.8

27. nov.: 9/16 (56.25%); 29.89/32; bank: -2.11
28. nov.: 8/15 (53.33%); bank: -2.1
29. nov.: 4/5 (80%); bank +4.6
___________________________
mircearos
22-12-04, 22:44
Tonight was a bad night for Spain 1 I had a 2 feelings for Valencia and
Real so I put just the opposite (Valencia over, Real under). But Spain 2
was perfect tonight. As well as Portugal 1.
Anyway let's keep up the good work we are all doing here. :lol:
Jovica S
22-12-04, 23:32
Recap II part:
4. weeks: 3-9 dec.

27/44
stake: 88; price:94.82
profit: + 6.82
New bank: 56.7
5. weeks: 10-16 dec.

23/40
profit: - 1.9
New bank: 54.8
6. weeks: 17-22 dec.

23/42
profit: - 8.9
New bank: 45.9
Current:
193/339 (accuracy 56.93%)
New bank: 45.9
cpt_amundsen
23-12-04, 07:07
New bank: 45.9
is it nice? :roll: i think not...something's wrong...
Magical
23-12-04, 08:06
New bank: 45.9
Is not bif profit but i'm very happy by the % .
56.93% of 339 picks is really good :)
the averages odds should be around 1.79. :roll:
dino
23-12-04, 13:57
Maybe you should try to use this system in the leagues where it works the
worst and then just bet oposite of the system predicted outcome. Its not
all about hitting the right one, you can also search for a system or
formulas that makes you hitting under 40% and then you play oposite. :D
Jovica S
23-12-04, 15:29
New bank: 45.9
This very nice. This is period of testing system and because I have some
lost pick. When I have about 700-800 picks, period of testing it's gone.
After that system has shown how it's profitable.
Jovica S
23-12-04, 15:51
Maybe you should try to use this system in the leagues where it works the
worst and then just bet oposite of the system predicted outcome. Its not
all about hitting the right one, you can also search for a system or
formulas that makes you hitting under 40% and then you play oposite. :D
Very god opinion. Always, when bet on Spain Primera, Italy I, England
Premier, or Holland, I'm think about that. Maybe try next time. Mostly
picks on sunday also it's not god, and this day, on some league i'm should
try to bet on "value" ("when system say over i'm play under", and
contrary)picks.
I'm not show, my statstics from all combo picks. Some combo have price
60 euro. Place all combo not possible, because not enaught time to this.
Mostly of them who i'm place it's not good, but altogether it's over 100
euro price.
When I'm have one or two lost pick on same time, must be one or two
god combo with price over 30 euro.
roxxor
23-12-04, 15:53
i will point out my version of over/under betting after christmas.
it uses simillar techniques, but differs about handling odds and profit
on the long run. it's not 100% finished, but i'll use it from the
beginning of next year. so be excited to hear from me. 8)
Jovica S
23-12-04, 18:18
Tonight one game and try with oposite picks:
Pontevedra - Racing Ferrol

3/5 UNDER
OVER @1.90 oposite :cry:
This pick not in this system, and i'm not include in statistics. Also in the
future not place picks like this.
Jovica S
25-12-04, 22:37
Arsenal - Fulham
5/5 OVER @1.5 :cry:
Blackburn R. - Newcastle U. :D
5/5 OVER @1.6

West Ham U. - Nottingham F. :cry:
4/5 UNDER @1.75
Leicester C. - Rotherham U. :D
4/5 UNDER @ @1.80
Sunderland - Leeds U. :cry:

3/5 UNDER @1.70
Blackpool - Hull C. :cry:

5/5 OVER @1.60
Doncaster R. - MK Dons :D
5/5 OVER @1.70

Darlington - Rochdale :cry:
5/5 UNDER
Jovica S
26-12-04, 00:09
...
and
Manchester U. - Bolton W. :cry:

3/5 OVER @1.55
Everton - Manchester C. :cry:

3/5 UNDER @1.65
Scotland - Division I. :D
St. Mirren - Hamilton @1.75
5/5 UNDER
Jovica S
26-12-04, 08:42
I'm remove picks:
Crystal Palace - Portsmouth

4/5 UNDER @1.65
Cardiff C. - Wolverhampton W.
3/5 UNDER @1.7 (5/5 2OR3)
Crewe Alexandra - Burnley

3/5 OVER @1.80
burakunderover
26-12-04, 12:06
Doncaster v Milton Keynes Dons >2.5 @ 1.71 5/5
Blackpool v Hull >2.5 @ 1.65 5/5
Arsenal v Fulham >2.5 @ 1.60 5/5
Jovica S
26-12-04, 12:41
I see that, but play this two only in one combo.
TomPearce
26-12-04, 12:42
Personally i would remove the Man u pick cause whenever we have a man
u pick it is generally wrong. i for sure will be giving this one a miss.
Jovica S
26-12-04, 13:54
I dont think Manchester U. - Bolton W. OVER bad picks:
1. avg home: 2.44

2. avg away: 3.44
3. max: 3.44
4. min: 2.44
5. avg: 2.94
H2H:
04/05 2:2
03/04: 4:0, 2:1
02/03: 0:1, 1:1
01/02: 1:2, 4:0
97/98: 1:1, 0:0
Last 3 games:
Manchester U. - home:
Manchester U. - Charlton 2:0
Manchester U. - Southampton 3:0
Manchester U. - Crystal Palace 5:2
Bolton W. - away:
Chelsea - Bolton W. 2:2
Everton - Bolton W. 3:2
Norwich - Bolton W. 3:2
I'm think result will be 2:1 or 2:2
burakunderover
26-12-04, 18:45
I see that, but play this two only in one combo.
yes, you are right. !!! :(
next match period i willl play everyting under because teams dont play
with full performance.. :(
Jovica S
26-12-04, 18:51
Today:
4/11 (36.36%)
Current:
197/350 (accuracy 56.28%)
Jovica S
26-12-04, 21:20
27. dec. 04 - Scotland:
Kilmarnock - FC Dundee :D
5/5 OVER - @1.60
Rangers - Motherwell - value :cry:

UNDER @2.80
Ross County - Partick Thistle :cry:

5/5 UNDER @1.75
Berwick - Greenock Morton :D

3/5 OVER @1.70
Forfar Athletic - Brechin City :D

4/5 OVER @1.60
East Fife - Montrose :D

5/5 UNDER @1.75
Queen's Park - Cowdenbeath :D

5/5 OVER @ 1.50
Jovica S
27-12-04, 17:57
Not bad pick on Scotland:
5/7 (71.42%)
Current:
202/357 (accuracy 56.58%)
TomPearce
27-12-04, 18:06
Jovica very much agree that almost every stat pointed in the direction of
the man u match going over but time and time again with the bigger
teams this doesnt mean much. if you look back at the last 26 pages of
this thread and look at the game where a top team, ie, man u, arsenal,
chelsea, real, barca have been involved the stats show no real colleration
in what happens in the game. and as i say this is why i very much stay
clear for teams of this nature.
Jovica S
27-12-04, 19:43
ENGLAND 28. dec. 2004.
Bolton W. - Blackburn R. :D
4/5 UNDER
Liverpool - Southampton :cry:

5/5 2OR3 (5/5 OVER)
Ipswich T. - Stoke C. :D
3/5 UNDER
Nottingham F. - Sunderland :cry:

5/5 UNDER
90' [1 - 2] M. Stewart
Queens Park R. - Crewe Alexandra :D

5/5 OVER
Sheffield U. - Leicester C. :D
5/5 UNDER
Macclesfield T. - Wycombe W. :D
5/5 2OR3 (5/5 UNDER)
Shrewsbury T. - Darlington :cry:
5/5 UNDER
Swansea C. - Boston U. :cry:

5/5 UNDER
Jovica S
27-12-04, 20:40
Jovica very much agree that almost every stat pointed in the direction of
the man u match going over but time and time again with the bigger
teams this doesnt mean much. if you look back at the last 26 pages of
this thread and look at the game where a top team, ie, man u, arsenal,
chelsea, real, barca have been involved the stats show no real colleration
in what happens in the game. and as i say this is why i very much stay
clear for teams of this nature.
You all right. Always if a bet on "big names" in this system, bet lost.
Rangers it's also one of them.
Jovica S
28-12-04, 15:11
First it's good:
Ipswich T. - Stoke C.
UNDER FT 1:0
Jovica S
28-12-04, 17:06
Aston Villa - Manchester U.
4/5 UNDER :D
TomPearce
28-12-04, 17:43
even if Villa Man U was 5/5 Under i would still not take this as a pick
Jovica S
28-12-04, 19:24
I'm agree, but system have good results on lonely game.
Jovica S
28-12-04, 19:38
Today
6/10 (60%)
Current:
208/367 (accuracy 56.67%)
Jovica S
28-12-04, 20:17
December 29 2004.

Hull C. - Doncaster R. :D
5/5 OVER @1.60
Cheltenham - Bristol R. :D
5/5 UNDER @1.60
Lincoln C. - Grimsby T. :cry:

3/5 OVER @1.80
Scotland - Division I.
Airdrie - Queen of the South :cry:

5/5 OVER @1.70
Clyde - St. Mirren postp.

4/5 UNDER @1.75
Hamilton - St. Johnstone :cry:

5/5 UNDER @1.75
Jovica S
29-12-04, 17:31
Newcastle U. - Arsenal
1. avg home: 3.556

2. avg away: 3.444
3. max: 4.0
4. min: 3.0
5. avg: 3.5
Maybe good reverse pick.

This is 5/5 OVER 2.5 game. But my expirience it's: game who it's over 3.5
(5. average value), on big league,
mostly end UNDER :D . My bokies give odds 2.0 for UNDER, end this is
low for me. I'm think odd about 2.3 will be good.
Jovica S
29-12-04, 21:54
Today:
2/5 (40%)
Current:
210/372 (accuracy 56.45%)
And one good reverse pick who not in statistics:
Newcastle Utd. - Arsenal London under 0:1
burakunderover
30-12-04, 13:44
01 Jan 16:00 Walsall v Doncaster >2.5 @ 1.79 :(
01 Jan 13:00 Derby County v Cardiff >2.5 @ 1.95 :(
01 Jan 16:00 Bristol C v Peterborough >2.5 @ 1.75
01 Jan 15:00 Fulham v Crystal Palace >2.5 @ 1.95 :D
01 Jan 16:00 Nottingham v Stoke <2.5 @ 1.71 :D
01 Jan 16:00 Barnsley v Hartlepool >2.5 @ 1.71 :(
01 Jan 16:00 Oldham v Tranmere >2.5 @ 1.75 :D
01 Jan 16:00 Watford v Millwall <2.5 @ 1.60 :D
01 Jan 16:00 Torquay v Stockport >2.5 @ 1.75 :D
01 Jan 16:00 Port Vale v Bradford City >2.5 @ 1.85 :(
but , dont forget overs are not certain because all footballers are tired..
Jovica S
31-12-04, 16:49
My picks (January 1):

Manchester C. - Southampton 4/5 UNDER :cry:
Newcastle U. - Birmingham C. 5/5 OVER :D

Burnley - Leicester C. 5/5 UNDER susp.
Gillingham - Reading 4/5 UNDER :D
Nottingham F. - Stoke C. 5/5 UNDER :D
Queens Park R. - Brighton 5/5 2OR3 :cry:
Sheffield U. - Wigan Athletic 4/5 UNDER :D
Watford - Millwall 5/5 UNDER :D
Wolverhampton - Plymouth 5/5 OVER :cry:
Jovica S
01-01-05, 11:39
Bristol C. - Peterborough U. 5/5 OVER :cry:
Walsall - Doncaster R. 5/5 OVER :cry:

Oxford U. - Wycombe W. 5/5 UNDER :cry:
Shrewsbury T. - Bristol R. 5/5 UNDER :D
Jovica S
01-01-05, 17:46
Today
6/12
first part: 5/8
second: 1/4
Current:
216/384 (accuracy 56.25%)
I'm hope this year will be best then picks today.
Happy New Year to all!!!
burakunderover
01-01-05, 21:55
i ask something !
Nottingham v Stoke <2.5 @ 1.60 - :D

Burnley v Leicester City <2.5 @ 1.65 THiS MATCH SUSP.
Watford v Millwall <2.5 @ 1.60 :D
Newcastle v Birmingham >2.5 @ 1.95 :D
when will start burney-leicester matcH ?
does anybody know.. ?
CG
01-01-05, 22:02
It was postponed because of a waterlogged pitch and because of the
games on Monday, it won't be played soon so bookies should void it.
burakunderover
02-01-05, 00:32
It was postponed because of a waterlogged pitch and because of the
games on Monday, it won't be played soon so bookies should void it.
ohw.. :( :evil: thanks...
Jovica S
03-01-05, 00:07
Norwich C. - Liverpool 5/5 OVER :D
Crystal Palace - Aston Villa 4/5 UNDER :D

Coventry C. - Leeds U. 5/5 UNDER :cry:
Millwall - Rotherham U. 5/5 UNDER :cry:
Stoke C. - Burnley 5/5 UNDER :D
Sunderland - Gillingham 5/5 OVER :cry:
Chesterfield - Barnsley 4/5 UNDER :cry:
Hartlepool U. - MK Dons 5/5 OVER :D
Stockport County - Hull C. 5/5 OVER :D
Tranmere R. - Torquay U. 5/5 OVER :D
Jovica S
03-01-05, 11:09
Chester C. - Lincoln C. 5/5 UNDER :D

Rushden & D. - Swansea C. 5/5 UNDER :D
Wycombe W. - Cheltenham 5/5 UNDER :D
roxxor
03-01-05, 11:23
honestly you can't make real profit by this.
it's just impossible.
time will tell.
Jovica S
03-01-05, 15:26
For me system it's only base for combo picks, who make profit.
Example:
On saturday i'm have 6 good and 6 lost picks, but good combo with odd
4.77.
Stake: 28 euro
Price: 39.48 euro (20.4 on single and 19.08 on combo)
Jovica S
03-01-05, 18:10
Today:
9/13 (69.23%)
Current: 225/397 (accuracy 56.67%)

New bank: 41.5 euro
CSKAREV
03-01-05, 22:33
Jovica_s what sysstem do you use?
Jovica S
04-01-05, 15:36
Today:
Everton - Portsmouth 5/5 UNDER @1.65 :cry:
90' [2 - 1] L. Osman
Manchester U. - Tottenham H. 4/5 UNDER @1.75 :D
Jovica S
04-01-05, 15:54
Jovica_s what sysstem do you use?
I'm don't understand this question, but i'm try to explain.
Statistics it's only from youvalfra basicly system, who presented on first
page on this forum.
All picks it's single with 2 euro stake for each. I'm also check H2H, and
last few games (5-6), before decide to place pick.
Jovica S
04-01-05, 21:57
Today:
1/2 (50%)
Everton - Portsmouth 5/5 UNDER @1.65
90' [2 - 1] L. Osman :evil:
Current:
226/399 (accuracy 56.64%)
Jovica S
04-01-05, 23:06
Southampton - Fulham
4/5 OVER @1.85
Jovica S
05-01-05, 20:30
:D :D :D
29' [2 - 1] K. Phillips
Jovica S
06-01-05, 11:40
RECAP after 2 month and 400 picks
good picks: [b]227 (56.75%)
lost pick: 173 (43.25%)

New bank: 42.7 euro
Stake: 800
Price: 802.7
Average odds for good pick 1.768.

Conclusion:
* For me this is first part of testing. Secon part begin today.
* Price not so good, but not negative.
* Average odds satisfy.
* I'm try to make double bank on next month. (80 euro).
Comment on pick always are welcome.
Jovica S
06-01-05, 12:05
Many games today it's good for reverse pick,
like:
Livorno - Inter Milan UNDER reverse @2.15
Parma - Juventus OVER reverse @1.80
Catanzaro - Genoa UNDER reverse @1.75
Vicenza - Triestina UNDER reverse @1.80
but for this system i'm select next two pick:
Sampdoria - Udinese 5/5 UNDER @1.65 :D

Salernitana - Verona 5/5 OVER @1.75 :D
lOZ
06-01-05, 15:13
Jovica your picks are looking very good so far :D . good luck!
Jovica S
06-01-05, 16:23
Thanks IOZ,
Today:
2/2
Current:
229/402 (accuracy 56.96%)
New bank: 45.5 euro
Jovica S
07-01-05, 16:56
France - Coupe De France
Lille - Le Mans 5/5 UNDER @1.75 :cry:

Sedan - Strasbourg 5/5 UNDER @1.65 :oops:
Nancy - Ajaccio 5/5 UNDER @1.60 :D
roxxor
07-01-05, 19:48
lille & sedan already over.
nancy 0-0 at HT.
guess cup matches aren't THAT good for under/over
your accuracy is too low for the odds you bet on.
after 400 picks you're +/- 0.
too much work for nothing. :cry:
Jovica S
07-01-05, 19:52
lille & sedan already over.
nancy 0-0 at HT.
guess cup matches aren't THAT good for under/over
your accuracy is too low for the odds you bet on.
after 400 picks you're +/- 0.
too much work for nothing. :cry:
Yes, but, still learn. Odd it's low because i'm carefully select pick in last
time, and local bokies give less odds.
Today not succesfull. :cry:
Jovica S
07-01-05, 21:04
Today 1/3:
Current:
230/405 (accuracy 56.79%)
New bank: 42.7 euro
roxxor, I'm love more comment before start games :wink:
Jovica S
07-01-05, 23:12
Sheffield W. - Swindon T. 5/5 OVER @1.75 :cry:

Rushden & Diamonds - Shrewsbury T. 3/5 OVER @1.80 :cry:
roxxor
08-01-05, 00:19
i don't like over/under in england :?
Jovica S
08-01-05, 10:57
i don't like over/under in england :?
Why, the best results it's from England, over 65% good picks
(about70%).
roxxor
08-01-05, 12:56
well i didn't like it with my old approach.
don't know how it's going with my new technique, yet haven't tested it.
to me, other leagues work out better. 8)
TomPearce
08-01-05, 13:29
You can not use cup games for this system is this why you have just
posted 5 more cup games, this will not be successful today.
Jovica S
08-01-05, 14:32
OK, i'm deleted cup games today, and game Huddersfield T. - Torquay U.
5/5 OVER @1.70 .
Jovica S
08-01-05, 17:00
What a day???
:? :? :?
How many we have if play reverse for all games, for all picks, for all
system.
Today
0/2
Current:
230/407 (accuracy 56.51%)
New bank: 38.7 euro
TomPearce thanks to prevent. :)
TomPearce
09-01-05, 11:18
you must just start to pick relevent picks, a bettors 1st tip is always dont
post bets for the point of bets, you should just maybe pick a main game a
day this will then get rid of all the rubbish ones and begin to get the
accuracy % higher. The system is a good one and i believe it can work,
still its just chosing relevance over convience
Jovica S
09-01-05, 14:13
I'm late, but picks are:
Fiorentina - Lazio 5/5 UNDER @1.70 :cry:

Catania - Venezia 5/5 UNDER @1.70 :D
Crotone - Pescara 5/5 UNDER @1.65 :cry:
yuvalfra
14-01-05, 14:35
Hey all, I'm back.
Nice to see Jovica and also lOZ have kept up with posting some picks,
thanks guys 8)
I'll see if in the near future I will be able to resume posting picks, as I
should have some more free time soon.
Jovica S
14-01-05, 18:14
Welcome yuvalfra 8) . We expect your picks.
mircearos
21-01-05, 11:41
Welcome back Yuvalfra.
Did you finish your military service? I hope so.
Now let's see some good picks.
Jovica S
22-01-05, 10:05
Today, it's good day to go again: 8)

Crystal Palace - Tottenham H. 5/5 UNDER @1.65 :cry:
Manchester U. - Aston Villa 5/5 UNDER @1.85 :cry:
Norwich C. - Middlesbrough 5/5 OVER @1.80 :D

Millwall - Wolverhampton W. 4/5 UNDER @1.75 :cry:
Stoke C. - Leeds U. 5/5 UNDER @1.70 :D
Sunderland - Sheffield U. 4/5 OVER 1.75 :cry:
mircearos
22-01-05, 10:10
I have:
Southampton Liverpool over
Chelsea Portsmouth under
Crystal Palace Tottenham Hotspurs under
Norwich Middlesborough over
Cardiff Burnley over
On the last one i have a feeling.
Jovica S
22-01-05, 11:52
OK, and, I'm remove Cardiff - Burnley and place:

Stockport County - Barnsley 4/5 OVER @1.75 :D
Tranmere R. - Walsall 5/5 OVER @1.70 :D

Chester C. - Rochdale 5/5 UNDER @1.70 :D
Grimsby T. - Lincoln C. 4/5 UNDER @1.70 :cry:
Notts County - Scunthorpe U. 5/5 UNDER @1.70 :D
Wycombe W. - Macclesfield T. 5/5 UNDER @1.65 :D
Interesting pick on Germany - Bundesliga I., but i'm not place picks
because small odds:
Nurnberg - Kaiserslautern OVER :D
Schalke - Werder Bremen OVER :D
mircearos
22-01-05, 12:41
Shalke i think will be under. Another feeling. let's see how my feelings
work.
yuvalfra
22-01-05, 21:41
Welcome back Yuvalfra.
Did you finish your military service? I hope so.
Now let's see some good picks.
Haha, have I finished it? I'm 43 days in the military, meaning I have
another 2 years, 10 months, 3 weeks and 4 days left!
Thanks for your concerns btw :)
I'll see if I can resume picks sometime this week or so.
yuvalfra
22-01-05, 21:56
Alright I decided to take some minutes before I go to sleep in order to
post some picks...
First of all, thanks again to Regand, without his site I could never have
the time or nerves to make picks.
Lets see...
Arsenal v Newcastle
OVER 2.5 @ 1.86 :(
Juventus v Brescia
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.32 :D
Lecce v Atalanta
OVER 2.5 @ 1.69 :(
Livorno v AC Milan
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90 :D
Messina v Parma
OVER 2.5 @ 2.24 :(
Udinese v Reggina
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.85 :D
Betis v Numancia
OVER 2.5 @ 2.10 :D
Getafe v Zaragoza
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.88 :(
Levante v Sociedad
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90 :(
Albacete v Sevilla
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.66 :D
Malaga v Atl Madrid

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.68 :D
Real Madrid v Mallorca

UNDER 2.5 @ 2.38 :(
Hannover v Leverkusen
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.24 :(
Bochum v H Berlin
OVER 2.5 @ 1.89 :D
Lille v Lyon
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.60 :(
Rio Ave v Estoril

OVER 2.5 @ 2.04 :D
Leiria v Porto
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.65 :D
Jovica S
12-02-05, 13:55
Cardiff C. - Brighton & Hove A. 5/5 UNDER

Coventry C. - Burnley 5/5 UNDER
Gillingham - Millwall 5/5 UNDER
Leeds U. - Reading 5/5 UNDER
Sunderland - Watford 4/5 OVER
Sheffield W. - Bradford C. 5/5 UNDER

Swindon T. - Barnsley 5/5 OVER
Wrexham - Torquay U. 5/5 OVER
bestbet123
12-04-05, 22:37
I tried NBA last week and it was 8/ 10 correct?
today
san ant spurs game:
min 189
max 195
avg 192
so over 186 for me....... it's tedious adding up all the points for NBA......
anyone doing this already? maybe we can help each other by posting !
Alright I decided to take some minutes before I go to sleep in order to

post some picks...
First of all, thanks again to Regand, without his site I could never have
the time or nerves to make picks.
Lets see...
Arsenal v Newcastle
OVER 2.5 @ 1.86 :(
Juventus v Brescia
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.32 :D
Lecce v Atalanta
OVER 2.5 @ 1.69 :(
Livorno v AC Milan
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90 :D
Messina v Parma
OVER 2.5 @ 2.24 :(
Udinese v Reggina
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.85 :D
Betis v Numancia
OVER 2.5 @ 2.10 :D
Getafe v Zaragoza
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.88 :(
Levante v Sociedad
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90 :(
Albacete v Sevilla
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.66 :D
Malaga v Atl Madrid

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.68 :D
Real Madrid v Mallorca

UNDER 2.5 @ 2.38 :(
Hannover v Leverkusen
UNDER 2.5 @ 2.24 :(
Bochum v H Berlin
OVER 2.5 @ 1.89 :D
Lille v Lyon
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.60 :(
Rio Ave v Estoril

OVER 2.5 @ 2.04 :D
Leiria v Porto
UNDER 2.5 @ 1.65 :D
Wettmeister
29-04-05, 19:24
how high is your bank at the moment?
yuvalfra
29-07-05, 21:40
Well well, hello folks...
I was wondering how long my thread would last after I left... nice to see it
kept on going a few months. I guess there's no way to actively investigate
the strategy atm as there are no major leagues active.
Hopefully when the leagues start, if I have the time and energy (G'damn
army) I will start with the system all over, with some conclusions we have
come to through past experiences, and new ideas to come.
Good betting to all.
Jovica S
30-07-05, 15:22
Well well, hello folks...
I was wondering how long my thread would last after I left... nice to see it
kept on going a few months. I guess there's no way to actively investigate
the strategy atm as there are no major leagues active.
Hopefully when the leagues start, if I have the time and energy (G'damn
army) I will start with the system all over, with some conclusions we have
come to through past experiences, and new ideas to come.
Good betting to all.
Heloo yuvalfra,
Nice to see you again.

I'm also wait my favorites league to go with this system, but maybe not
have time to play everyday.
:)
Jovica S
15-10-05, 11:14
Let's see what happening this year on my favorite league
Preston North End - Queens Park R. under 2.5 4/5 @1.65 :D (+1.3)
Sheffield U. - Wolverhampton W. over 2.5 4/5 @ 1.80 :( (-2)
Coventry C. - Crystal Palace over 2.5 5/5 @ 1.80 :D (+1.6)
Southampton - Hull C. under 2.5 5/5 @1.70 :D (+1.4)
Odds from local. For all picks stake 2
Starting bank: 40
Jovica S
15-10-05, 11:53
My second favorites leagues
Italy - Serie B
Bologna - Vicenza over 2.5 5/5 @1.90 :D (+1.8 )

Verona - Arezzo under 1.5 5/5 @2.65 :( (-2)
Also:
Ternana - Torino under 2.5 5/5, but odds it's small (1.45 on local) and i'm
not bet.
Jovica S
15-10-05, 22:08
Today:
4/6 (67%)
Stake: 12
Money back: 14.1
Current
Starting bank: 40
Current bank: 42.1 :D
Game Verona - Arezzo end under 2.5. Because odd very small i'm play
under 1.5 and this is my fault. Also game Ternana - Torino, who i'm not
bet.
rado_tdr
18-10-05, 13:59
I have see this topic today and the system i great.But I have problems
with these min/max.Am I right:
average min/max = (home side average score + away side average

score) /2 + (home side average conceived + away side average
conceived)/2
For example today England Championship:
Cardif - Preston
Home side 6 games 8:8

Away side 6 games 10:8
home side scores 8/6=1.333

home side conceived 8/6=1.333
away side score 10/6=1.667

away side conceived 8/6=1.333
home side average = 1.333+1.333=2.666 over
away side average = 1.667+1.333=3.000 over
MIN/MAX average = (1.333+1.667)/2 + (1.333+1.333)/2 =

1.5+1.333=2.833 over
Is that true.
I have read the first pick of this topic but this min max confuse
me.Because one time is the average scores and another time it is average
conceived.
Thanks a lot for your help.Sorry for my English
rado_tdr
18-10-05, 14:06
I have read all posts and someone says crossed about tha min max and
anotherone says somthingelse.Im confused :( :( :(
rado_tdr
18-10-05, 14:20
OK I think I got it.For MAX we compare home scores and away
conceives(average offcourse) and we take the higher one.Then we
compare away score and home conceives and we pick the
higher.Bouth=MAX.We make the same,but we take the lowest,so we find
the MIN.
Min+Max/2
Am I right :P :P
rado_tdr
18-10-05, 14:33
but wait a minute i make for me calculation on England Championship
right now and Min/Max average = home average/away average.
rado_tdr
19-10-05, 14:15
I want to try this system.Yesterday I have made my calculation for English
Championship and pick two games for over:
Crdif - Preston over 1.90 2:2 :lol:

Leeds - Southampton over 2.00 2:1 :lol:
Today I have thinking about which championship will be good for the
system.I have read all of your posts,but nobody have pick Brazil
championship.There is a lot of overs.i know the ratio is not so big and you
think is no value in 1.5-1.6 but I want to try with this and I will post my
prediction.
I think also to play system like 2/3
rado_tdr
19-10-05, 14:31
Vasco - Botafogo
home side 14-27:23 :arrow: 1,93+1,64=3,57 over

away side 15-17:25 :arrow: 1,13+1,66=2,79 over
min 1,66+1,13 = 2,79 over
max 1,64 + 1,93 = 3,57 over
min/max = 3,18
Vasco - Botafogo
over 2,5 - 1,60 :(
Interwetten
Ponte Preta - Sao Paolo
home side 15- 28:26 = 3,59 over

away side 16-35:30 = 4,05 over
min = 3,59 over
max = 4,05 over
min/max = 3,80 over
Ponte Preta - Sao Paolo

over 2,5 - 1,55 :(
Interwetten
Paysand - Cruzeiro
home side 15-28:25 = 3,54 over
away side 15 - 22:26 = 3,20 over
min = 3,20 over
max = 3,54 over
min/max = 3,37 over
Paysand - Cruzeiro
over 2,5 - 1,60 :D
Interwetten
rado_tdr
20-10-05, 07:01
No profit but I will not give up.:):):)
Jovica S
21-10-05, 16:32
I think Brazil not good for this system.
Maybe if you try with one or two picks with high ratio, on bet over 3.5,
where odds about 2.3 or 2.4.
Anyway, good luck, and welcome in this forum
globet
21-10-05, 16:50
I dont know but odds 2.10 offering by Eurobet on Standart-Charleroi
under are really tempting to me.Charleroi at most is a team which of his
games finishing under expect last two games which ended 4-3 and 3-3.So
now with Standard I expect them to play very carefully in defensive style.
Standard Liege-Charleroi under odds 2.10@Eurobet
Jovica S
21-10-05, 17:57
I dont know but odds 2.10 offering by Eurobet on Standart-Charleroi
under are really tempting to me.Charleroi at most is a team which of his
games finishing under expect last two games which ended 4-3 and 3-3.So
now with Standard I expect them to play very carefully in defensive style.
Standard Liege-Charleroi under odds 2.10@Eurobet
This is very good picks, but Belgium ... :)
Jovica S
21-10-05, 18:00
Tonight

Leeds U. - Sheffield U. over 2.5 5/5 @1.85 ( -2) :(
4/7 (57.14%)
Stake: 14
Money back: 14.1
Current
Starting bank: 40
Current bank: 40.1
globet
21-10-05, 19:59
HT Standard Liege 0 - 0 Charleroi
globet
21-10-05, 20:51
Tonight

Leeds U. - Sheffield U. over 2.5 5/5 @1.85
U can make it.The visitors had score now.20 min. left
Jovica S
21-10-05, 21:01
Tonight

Leeds U. - Sheffield U. over 2.5 5/5 @1.85
U can make it.The visitors had score now.20 min. left
I'm win bet:

over 1.5 in second half, for more many. @2.1 on local
globet
21-10-05, 21:06
FT Standard Liege 1 - 0 Charleroi
I make it :lol: :lol:
Jovica S
21-10-05, 21:16
FT Standard Liege 1 - 0 Charleroi
I make it :lol: :lol:

When i say today, very good pick. Congratulation :D
Jovica S
22-10-05, 10:39
Crystal Palace - Burnley under 2.5 5/5 @1.65 :D ( +1.3)

Ipswich T. - Watford over 2.5 5/5 @1.80 :( ( -2)
Jovica S
22-10-05, 11:14
Italy - Serie B
Brescia - Bari under 2.5 5/5 @1.50 :( ( -2)

Cremonese - Mantova under 2.5 5/5 @1.50 :( ( -2)
Crotone - Atalanta over 2.5 5/5 @1.85 :( ( -2)
Modena - Verona under 2.5 5/5 @1.50 :D ( +1)
I don't love to bet on England - Premier League, but 3 games are pretty
sure:
Blackburn R. - Birmingham C. under 2.5 5/5 @1.60 :D ( +1.2)

Fulham - Liverpool under 2.5 5/5 @1.60 :D (+1.2)
Manchester U. - Tottenham H. under 2.5 4/5 @1.75 :D ( +1.5)
Monchengladbach - Kaiserslautern under 2.5 4/5 @1.80 :( :( ( -2)
Jovica S
23-10-05, 11:47
Statistics:
Last picks:
5/10 (50%)
Stake: 20
Money back: 16.2
Current
9/17 (52.94%)
stake:34
money back:30.3
Starting bank: 40
Current bank: 36.3
yuvalfra
28-10-05, 00:44
Cheers all,
I'm back in buisiness, and going to bet using the
system, now that the main leagues are back.
Bet for tomorrow:

Ajax - Heerenven OVER 5/5
Saturday:
Wigan - Fullham UNDER 5/5

Totenham - Arsenal UNDER 5/5
Sunderland - Pourtsmouth NO BET
Chelsea - Blackburn NO BET
Charlton - Bolton OVER 4/5
Birmingham - Everton UNDER 4/5
Liverpool - Westham UNDER 5/5
Middlesbrough - Manchester U NO BET
more picks (incl. odds and stakes) coming tomorrow...

lOZ
28-10-05, 01:58
Cheers all,
I'm back in buisiness, and going to bet using the
system, now that the main leagues are back.
Bet for tomorrow:

Ajax - Heerenven OVER 5/5
Saturday:
Wigan - Fullham UNDER 5/5

Totenham - Arsenal UNDER 5/5
Sunderland - Pourtsmouth NO BET
Chelsea - Blackburn NO BET
Charlton - Bolton OVER 4/5
Birmingham - Everton UNDER 4/5
Liverpool - Westham UNDER 5/5
Middlesbrough - Manchester U NO BET
more picks (incl. odds and stakes) coming tomorrow...
Great to see you back again mate. Best of luck with your system - there
were som really promising signs from it and variations mad e up by the
other guys last time.
Best or luck!!!
yuvalfra
28-10-05, 02:25
hey lOZ! Great to see you're still here.
Yes, we've had great success with the system last time. I've also received
reports via PM from other punters who've made good money with it.
This time I'm betting using my hard eanred cash, and not fake 100USD
flat bets. :)
My bank is minimal atm though, so stakes will be low.
Good luck!
lOZ
28-10-05, 07:01
flat bets. :)
Good luck!
Yep, still here, can't pull myself away from the bettingadvice addiction.
Are there any tweaks or adjustments to your old strategy that you will be
trying this time around? I haven't monitored other ppl's success, but have
you heard of any decent profits being made then?
Loz
yuvalfra
28-10-05, 11:20
flat bets. :)
Good luck!
Loz
Well, mostly people just pm'ed me saying "damn, I got 5 games out of 7
right, how is this possible?", only Jimmy pm'ed me about long-term profit.
He got around 20 of 28 bets correct, which is quite impressive - 71%.
Anyway, the only changes I am thinking about are first of all to add a
stake factor - if the all 5 values are under 2, to double the stake. if all the
5 values are over 3, to double the stake. If they are "average" - normal
stake. If it's 4/5 under/over then half stake. But I still haven't decided
about that.
In addition I've pretty much decided to cut the "[value]" bets. In the
beggining they were nice, and had a nice hit percentage, but eventually it
doesn't really comply with the strategy outline, but rather increases the
luck factor in the entire deal. I still need to decide as well if I wanna bet at
all on 4/5 unders/overs. I think the best may be to stick to 5/5. Or at
least stake less on 4/5.
Will keep you updated...
rado_tdr
28-10-05, 11:29
I think it is very important to decide in witch Championships to play with
this strategy.Maybe if you have 4/5 you should look the last 5 or 10
matches of the club to decide to pick or to skip.:):)
Good luck with your strategy I will follow afcourse.
Jovica S
28-10-05, 12:30
Nice to see again gays. :D
yuvalfra:
About your changes.
I'm not play "value bets", and this is good for me.
Idea double stake if all 5 values under 2 or over 3, it's good and may give
profit in a future.
But, half stake if values 4/5 i think not give good result, because my picks
4/5 give same or best results then 5/5.
Picks for saturday:

Crewe Alexandra - Crystal Palace over 2.5 5/5 @1.80 double stake: 4 - all
5 over 3 or equal 3.
Norwich C. - Sheffield W. under 2.5 5/5 @1.65 stake: 2
Preston North End - Leicester C. under 2.5 5/5 @1.65 stake: 2
Sheffield U. - Cardiff C. over 2.5 4/5 @1.70 stake: 2 - I'm expect very
open games (over 1.5 in first half @2.55 stake: 5/10 and over 2.5 in first
half @6.50 stake: 2/10; odds from local).
- This speculation not for system.
England - Premier League NO BET for me today
Jovica S
28-10-05, 15:17
Friday:

Bochum - Paderborn under 2.5 4/5 @1.8 stake: 2 :D +1.6
Braunschweig - Siegen under 2.5 4/5 @1.8 stake: 2 :D +1.6

Cork City - St. Patricks under 2.5 5/5 @1.75 stake: 2 :D +1.5
Shamrock Rovers - Bray Wanderers over 2.5 4/5 @1.8 stake: 2 :cry: -2
Shelbourne - Finn Harps over 2.5 5/5 @1.65 stake 2: :x -2
yuvalfra
28-10-05, 19:01
First bet !
Ajax - Heerenven OVER 5/5 @ 1.65 @ 10USD
Good luck.
Jovica S
28-10-05, 22:15
Today:
3/5 (60%)
Stake: 10
Money back: 10.7
Current
12/22 (54.54%)
Starting bank: 40
New bank: 37
lOZ
29-10-05, 06:53
flat bets. :)
Good luck!
Loz
Well, mostly people just pm'ed me saying "damn, I got 5 games out of 7
right, how is this possible?", only Jimmy pm'ed me about long-term profit.
He got around 20 of 28 bets correct, which is quite impressive - 71%.
Anyway, the only changes I am thinking about are first of all to add a
stake factor - if the all 5 values are under 2, to double the stake. if all the
5 values are over 3, to double the stake. If they are "average" - normal
stake. If it's 4/5 under/over then half stake. But I still haven't decided
about that.
In addition I've pretty much decided to cut the "[value]" bets. In the
beggining they were nice, and had a nice hit percentage, but eventually it
doesn't really comply with the strategy outline, but rather increases the
luck factor in the entire deal. I still need to decide as well if I wanna bet at
all on 4/5 unders/overs. I think the best may be to stick to 5/5. Or at
least stake less on 4/5.
Will keep you updated...
that all sounds quite sensible Yuvalfra and hopefully we can take some
things away from last year where the problems were. Anyway I like your
ideas.
As others have said, the choice of particular country and league is
important from looking at the others experiences. Also probably bvest to
avoid League Cups where the results seem particularly wonky at times.
We WILL make some money this year.... so good luck to everyone getting
on this bandwagon!
Jovica S
29-10-05, 12:08
I decide to remove all picks from England premier.
Reason: small odds and big risk
Jovica S
29-10-05, 12:21
Let's see what happening on England - League One:
Brentford - Bournemouth under 2.5 5/5 @1.75 stake: 2

Doncaster R. - Tranmere R. under 2.5 5/5 @1.75 stake: 2
Milton Keynes Dons - Rotherham U. under 2.5 5/5 @1.65 stake: 2
Port Vale - Hartlepool U. under 2.5 5/5 @1.75 stake: 2
Scunthorpe U. - Oldham Athletic over 2.5 5/5 @1.80 stake: 2
Log in
Pages : 1 2 3 [4] 5
yuvalfra
29-10-05, 12:56
Ajax - Heerenven OVER 5/5 @ 1.65 @ 10USD LOST
WON BETS - 0
LOST BETS - 1
OVERALL -10
Didn't wake up in time for Totenham and Wigan...

Will include them in the overall figures, but unfortunately won't make $$$
out of it.
yuvalfra
29-10-05, 14:05
God...I got to wake up...I forgot to bet in Germany.
Anyway, for the sake of our system, here are the bets:
FC Koln - Bayern OVER 5/5

Kairserslautern - Bayer OVER 5/5
Dortmund - Munchengledbach UNDER 5/5
yuvalfra
29-10-05, 14:26
Some more...
Norwich - Sheffild W UNDER 5/5

Crewe - Crystal Palace OVER 5/5
Preston - Leicster UNDER 5/5
yuvalfra
29-10-05, 14:31
Ahhh...I missed this ****!
ENGLAND: Premier League
Wigan - Fullham UNDER 5/5 :)

Totenham - Arsenal UNDER 5/5 :)
Charlton - Bolton OVER 4/5 :(
Birmingham - Everton UNDER 4/5 :)
Liverpool - Westham UNDER 5/5 :)
ENGLAND: Coca-Cola Championship
Norwich - Sheffild W UNDER 5/5 :)

Crewe - Crystal Palace OVER 5/5 :)
Preston - Leicster UNDER 5/5 :)
GERMANY: Bundesliga
FC Koln - Bayern OVER 5/5 :)

Kairserslautern - Bayer OVER 5/5 :)
Dortmund - Munchengledbach UNDER 5/5 :(
History
WON BETS - 9
LOST BETS - 3
PERCENTAGE - 75% 8)
yuvalfra
29-10-05, 16:51
Next...
Monaco-Ajaccio UNDER 5/5

Strassbourg-St Etienne UNDER 5/5
Lyon-Sochaux UNDER 5/5
Nantes-Le Mans UNDER 5/5
Rennes Metz OVER 4/5
Jovica S
29-10-05, 16:57
Saturday results:

Crewe Alexandra - Crystal Palace over 2.5 5/5 @1.80 double stake: 4 - all
5 over 3 or equal 3. :D +3.2
Norwich C. - Sheffield W. under 2.5 5/5 @1.65 stake: 2 :D +1.3
Preston North End - Leicester C. under 2.5 5/5 @1.65 stake: 2 :D +1.3
Sheffield U. - Cardiff C. over 2.5 4/5 @1.70 stake: 2 :( -2
England - League One:

Brentford - Bournemouth under 2.5 5/5 @1.75 stake: 2 :D +1.5
Doncaster R. - Tranmere R. under 2.5 5/5 @1.75 stake: 2 :D +1.5
Milton Keynes Dons - Rotherham U. under 2.5 5/5 @1.65 stake: 2 :D
+1.3
Port Vale - Hartlepool U. under 2.5 5/5 @1.75 stake: 2 :( -2
Scunthorpe U. - Oldham Athletic over 2.5 5/5 @1.80 stake: 2 :D :D +1.6
Very good day :D :D :D :

Championship 3/4
League One 4/5
Today:
7/9 (77.77%)
Stake: 20
Money back: 27.7
Current:
19/31 (61.29%)
Starting bank: 40
New bank: 44.7
GONGRATULATION YUVALFRA :D :D for your picks.
lOZ
29-10-05, 17:06
You guys rock!!! :D
Great start to the day...enjoy your $$

yuvalfra
30-10-05, 01:00
Thanks lOZ! The system is back full blast, this time I'm making money out
of it.
FRANCE: Ligue 1
Monaco-Ajaccio UNDER 5/5 :(

Strassbourg-St Etienne UNDER 5/5 :)
Lyon-Sochaux UNDER 5/5 :)
Nantes-Le Mans UNDER 5/5 :)
Rennes Metz OVER 4/5 :)
History
WON BETS - 13
LOST BETS - 4
PERCENTAGE - 76.47%
yuvalfra
30-10-05, 01:07
another day emerges...
Chievo - Empoli UNDER 5/5

Fiorentina - Caligari OVER 5/5
Deportivo - Getafe OVER 5/5
Zaragoza - Malaga OVER 5/5
Barcelona - Sociadad OVER 5/5
lOZ
30-10-05, 05:50
This is not on topic but thought I would mention anyway.
In the Austraian A-Lague match between Sydney FC and Newcastle the

under is a good pick today as it is raining like theres no tomorrow.
It will be as struggle for the teams to run on the field let alone score
goals.
gamebookers has the under 2.5 going on at 1.83. Its good value.
Trystan19
30-10-05, 08:21
i heard that weather in portugal is really bad...should i play all their
games under????? and if so, which of them?
bonusman004
30-10-05, 13:13
Hi !
So my picks. Odds are from Betfair
5/5:
Fiorentina over 2.5 :arrow: 1.82 :lol:
Chievo under 2.5 :arrow: 1.71 :(
4/5:
Roma under 2.5 :arrow: 1.97 :(
Reggina under 2.5 :arrow: 1.76 :lol:
Lecce under :arrow: 1.79 :lol:
GL !
Hmm great.. small profit but PROFIT!
yuvalfra
30-10-05, 15:41
Nancy - Nice OVER 4/5 (great odd - 2.56)
Bielifeld - Hannover UNDER 5/5
Mainz - Nurnberg OVER 4/5
Kilian
30-10-05, 18:41
hi all,
Instituto Atletico - Quilmes UNDER 4/5

Sv Roeselare - GBA OVER 5/5
Auxerre - Paris SG UNDER 5/5
Atletico Madrid - Villarreal UNDER
:wink:
yuvalfra
30-10-05, 19:22
Alright, the bad day had to come...Part of the balance.
Chievo - Empoli UNDER 5/5 :(

Fiorentina - Caligari OVER 5/5 :)
Deportivo - Getafe OVER 5/5 :(
Zaragoza - Malaga OVER 5/5 :(
Barcelona - Sociadad OVER 5/5 :)
Nancy - Nice OVER 4/5 :(
Bielifeld - Hannover UNDER 5/5 :(
Mainz - Nurnberg OVER 4/5 :)
WON BETS - 16
LOST BETS - 9
PERCENTAGE - 64.00%
yuvalfra
30-10-05, 19:28
Auxerre - Paris Saint Germain UNDER 5/5
yuvalfra
30-10-05, 19:30
hi all,

Atletico Madrid - Villarreal UNDER 5/5
:wink:
How did you come to the conclusion that Atletico - Villareal is UNDER 5/5
?
You should read the first page again.
Kilian
30-10-05, 19:41
hi all,

Atletico Madrid - Villarreal UNDER 5/5
:wink:
How did you come to the conclusion that Atletico - Villareal is UNDER 5/5
?
You should read the first page again.
i used your strategy for all the match except for this one... :wink:
yuvalfra
30-10-05, 20:01
Ummm then please don't write it's Under 5/5 my friend...
This thread is not for simple under/over bets, but rather ones that fall
under the category of complying with the system.
I wouldn't want punters to be confused and think that this game is 5/5
Under with the system when it's actually 2 or 3 / 5 ...
Thanks mate.
Kilian
30-10-05, 20:36
Thanks mate.
okidoki, sorry for this mistake :oops: :wink:
Instituto Atletico - Quilmes UNDER 4/5 :)

Sv Roeselare - GBA OVER 5/5 :)
Auxerre - Paris SG UNDER 5/5 :)
without the system : Atletico Madrid - Villarreal UNDER :)
yuvalfra
30-10-05, 21:22
Thanks mate.
okidoki, sorry for this mistake :oops: :wink:
Instituto Atletico - Quilmes UNDER 4/5 :)

Sv Roeselare - GBA OVER 5/5 :)
Auxerre - Paris SG UNDER 5/5 :)
without the system : Atletico Madrid - Villarreal UNDER
No problem mate :)
yuvalfra
30-10-05, 21:50
Auxerre - Paris Saint Germain UNDER 5/5 :)
WON BETS - 17
LOST BETS - 9
PERCENTAGE - 65.38%
Kilian
31-10-05, 10:57
For today :
Brno - Slavia Prague OVER 5/5

TSV 1860 - Aachen OVER 5/5
Cremonese - Piacenza OVER 5/5
Brescia - Modena UNDER 5/5
Internacional - Paysandu OVER 5/5
Flamengo - Coritiba OVER 5/5
bonusman004
31-10-05, 11:39
For today :

What? Brno, TSV and Cremonese OVER for 5/5 ??? hmm i dont think!
bonusman004
31-10-05, 11:43
Today:
odds are from betfair
Bohemians - Cork over2.5 | 2,22 | 5/5

Shelbourne - Bray over2.5 | 1,88 | 4/5
Brescia - Modena under2.5 | 1,57 | 5/5 <-- very low odds :(
Brest -Sedan under2.5 |1.49| 5/5 <-- again very low odds :(
Man. City - As. Vila under2.5 | 1.8 | 4/5
So GL !
Kilian
31-10-05, 14:15
For today :

What? Brno, TSV and Cremonese OVER for 5/5 ??? hmm i dont think!
For these three matchs, all the stats are over 2.5 (min,max and average)
:? Maybe 4/5 for Cremonese :roll:
Jovica S
31-10-05, 15:58
Today picks:
Italy - Serie B
Brescia - Modena under 2.5 :arrow: 1.50, double stake: 4 (all 5 under 2)
France - Ligue 2
Brest - Sedan under 2.5 :arrow: 1.45, stake: 2

Shelbourne - Bray Wanderers over 2.5 5/5 :arrow: 1.6, double stake: 4
Kilian for your information

Brno - Slavia Prague over 3/5 (NOT 5/5):evil:
Munich 1860 - Alemannia Aachen over 3/5 (NOT 5/5) :evil:
Cremonese - Piacenza over 3/5 (NOT 5/5) :evil:
Flamengo - Coritiba over 3/5 (one coefficient equal 2.5) - NOT 5/5 :evil:
You must place correct information, and DON'T confused people :twisted:
:twisted:
[/b]
Jovica S
31-10-05, 20:59
Bad day for system
Brest - Sedan under 2.5 :cry: -4

Brescia - Modena under 2.5 :cry: -2
Shelbourne - Bray Wanderers over 2.5 :) + 6.4
Jovica S
01-11-05, 00:09
today:
1/3 (33%)
Stake: 10
Money back: 6.4
Current:
20/34 (58.82%)
Starting bank: 40
New bank: 41.1
yuvalfra
01-11-05, 08:35
For today :

Kilian, please either stop posting picks, or join on the testing of the
system. This is not a thread for whichever under/over picks to be placed,
and theres no such thing as "surely 5/5, maybe 4/5!". It's mathematics
and statistics, it's either 4 or 5, or less. So please either go by the system,
or open a new thread.
Thanks.
yuvalfra
01-11-05, 08:39
Ps
Today haven't placed stake on Brescia due to low odd. That is also part of
the system - considering which odds should be backed and which not.
1.50, with all due respect to the system's accuracy is not good value.
I did place however OVER on Shelbourne v Bray, and it was indeed over.
Whoever doesn't wanna believe me is welcome, people who have been
following this thread know I don't lie :)
WON BETS - 18
LOST BETS - 9
PERCENTAGE - 66.66%
yuvalfra
01-11-05, 08:47
Brighton - Wolverhampton W OVER 5/5
Burnley -Millwall OVER 5/5
Norwich C. - Cardiff C. UNDER 5/5
Plymouth Argyle - Leicester C. UNDER 5/5
Preston North End - Hull C. UNDER 5/5
bonusman004
01-11-05, 09:16
Today:
odds are from betfair
Bohemians - Cork over2.5 | 2,22 | 5/5

Shelbourne - Bray over2.5 | 1,88 | 4/5
Brescia - Modena under2.5 | 1,57 | 5/5 <-- very low odds :(
Brest -Sedan under2.5 |1.49| 5/5 <-- again very low odds :(
Man. City - As. Vila under2.5 | 1.8 | 4/5
So GL !
Hmm.. i never bet odds lower than 1.7 in future, but i will bet opposite
odds around 2.3 for 3/5! What do you think?
bonusman004
01-11-05, 09:46
Today .. Bookie Betfair
Preston - Hull under 2.5 | 1.79 | 5/5

Burnley - Millwall over 2.5 | 2.4 | 4/5 8O value?
Norwich - Cardiff under 2.5 | 1.78 | 5/5
GL !
Kilian
01-11-05, 12:28
3 games for me today :
Burnley - Milwall (over 4/5)

Plymouth - Leicester (under 5/5)
Brighton - Wolver (over 5/5)
ps: yuvalfra, i join the system :wink:
Jovica S
01-11-05, 16:34
Only one picks for me tonight:

Preston North End - Hull C. under 2.5 5/5 @1.65 double stake: 4
Kilian
01-11-05, 21:14
3 games for me today :
Burnley - Milwall (over 4/5) :D

Plymouth - Leicester (under 5/5) :D :?:
Brighton - Wolver (over 5/5) :(
ps: yuvalfra, i join the system :wink:
match suspended : Plymouth-Leicester is abandoned

Plymouth's game at home to Leicester on Tuesday was abandoned due to
a water-logged pitch.
yuvalfra
01-11-05, 23:41
Brighton - Wolverhampton W OVER 5/5 :(
Burnley -Millwall OVER 5/5 :)
Norwich C. - Cardiff C. UNDER 5/5 :)
Plymouth Argyle - Leicester C. UNDER 5/5 :(
Preston North End - Hull C. UNDER 5/5 :?:
Preston Suspended.
WON BETS - 20
LOST BETS - 11
PERCENTAGE - 64.51%
goooooal
02-11-05, 06:24
what's the meaning of "conceive"?
Kilian
02-11-05, 13:13
Preston Suspended.
WON BETS - 20
LOST BETS - 11
PERCENTAGE - 64.51%
Preston North End 3 - 0 Hull C. (FT)
bonusman004
02-11-05, 13:15
Today .. Bookie Betfair
Preston - Hull under 2.5 | 1.79 | 5/5 :(

Burnley - Millwall over 2.5 | 2.4 | 4/5 8O value? 8)
Norwich - Cardiff under 2.5 | 1.78 | 5/5 8)
GL !
GREAT GREAT GREAT GREAT
Kilian
02-11-05, 13:21
only 2 games :roll:
Derby - Ipswich (under 4/5)

Sao Paolo - Atl Mineiro (over 4/5)
See you
yuvalfra
02-11-05, 23:13
Preston Suspended.
WON BETS - 20
LOST BETS - 11
PERCENTAGE - 64.51%
Preston North End 3 - 0 Hull C. (FT)
I meant Preston was lost and Plymouth was susp.
yuvalfra
02-11-05, 23:49
what's the meaning of "conceive"?
Goals Conceived = Goals the team RECEIVED..negative goals..hope you

understand.
goooooal
03-11-05, 08:00
yeah, thank you very much
garvil13
04-11-05, 17:02
Hi everybody. I've been reading this forum in the last weeks and
yuvalfra's system seems interesting.
Since I saw your system I´m testing it but with changes:
I only bet on picks 5/5.
I take only the last 4 matches for each team (the last 4 home matches for
local team and the last 4 visitant matches for the visitant team).
I only bet if odds are 1,75 or bigger.
At the moment, results are good.
If you allow me, I'd like to post here my picks and we all could see if "my
(dis)evolution" of yuvalfra system is good enough.
PD: Thanks to yuvalfra to share your system.

garvil13
04-11-05, 17:12
My picks for this weekend are (odds from betandwin):
Siena - Chievo OVER @ 1,75

Milan - Udinese OVER @ 1,95
Villarreal - Valencia OVER @ 1,85
Cardiff - Coventry OVER @ 1,80
Celta - Alaves UNDER @ 1,75
Karlsruher - Dresden UNDER @ 1,95
Unterhaching - Furth UNDER @ 2,10
Ipswich - Plymouth UNDER @ 1,75
PSV - Sparta Rotterdam UNDER @ 2,30
Initial bank: 200 units
Each bet: 10 units
yuvalfra
04-11-05, 22:15
Interesting garvil13, good luck!
yuvalfra
04-11-05, 22:51
Weekend is upon us...
Newcastle v Birmingham UNDER 5/5

Fulham v Man City UNDER 5/5
Portsmouth v Wigan UNDER 5/5
Leeds v Preston OVER 5/5

Stoke v Brighton UNDER 5/5
QPR v Reading UNDER 5/5
Villarreal v Valencia OVER 5/5
Frankfurt v Bielefeld OVER 5/5

H Berlin v Kaiserslautern OVER 5/5
Leverkusen v Dortmund OVER 5/5
Nantes v Nancy UNDER 5/5

Nice v Bordeaux UNDER 5/5
Jovica S
05-11-05, 12:29
Today picks like your yuvlafra, without some difference (small odds on
some picks):
Newcastle v Birmingham UNDER 5/5 @1.65 stake: 2 :D
Fulham v Man City UNDER 5/5 @ 1.60 stake: 2 :cry:
Portsmouth v Wigan UNDER 5/5 @160 stake:2 :D

Leeds v Preston OVER 5/5 @1.85 stake: 2 :cry:
QPR v Reading UNDER 5/5 @1.65 stake: 2 :cry:
Frankfurt v Bielefeld OVER 5/5 @1.65 stake: 2 :D
and:
Italy - Serie B
Cesena - Bologna under 5/5 @1.50 stake: 2 :D
Mantova - Brescia over 4/5 @1.85 stake: 2 :cry:
Pescara - Triestina under 5/5 @1.55 stake: 2 :cry:
Piacenza - Avellino over 4/5 @1.85 stake: 2 :cry:
Verona - Crotone under 5/5 @1.50 stake: 2 :D
Good luck to all. :D
yuvalfra
05-11-05, 21:11
Crappy day.
English Championship big let-down once again, might drop it from chosen
leagues.
Newcastle v Birmingham UNDER 5/5 :)

Fulham v Man City UNDER 5/5 :(
Portsmouth v Wigan UNDER 5/5 :)
Leeds v Preston OVER 5/5 :(

Stoke v Brighton UNDER 5/5 :(
QPR v Reading UNDER 5/5 :(
Villarreal v Valencia OVER 5/5 :(
Frankfurt v Bielefeld OVER 5/5 :)

H Berlin v Kaiserslautern OVER 5/5 :)
Leverkusen v Dortmund OVER 5/5 :)
Nantes v Nancy UNDER 5/5 :(

Nice v Bordeaux UNDER 5/5 :)
CURRENT: 6 / 12 = 50.00%
OVERALL: 26 / 43 = 60.46%
yuvalfra
06-11-05, 10:18
New bets...
AC Milan v Udinese OVER 5/5

Siena v Chievo OVER 5/5
Palermo v Sampdoria OVER 5/5
Lille v Strasbourg UNDER 5/5

Sochaux v Lens UNDER 5/5
Ferrol v R Madrid B OVER 4/5

Gijon v Cuidad de Murcia UNDER 5/5
Lorca v Numancia UNDER 5/5
Elche v Malaga B OVER 5/5
Ejido v Almeria OVER 5/5
OB v Viborg OVER 5/5
yuvalfra
06-11-05, 23:57
I think I'm sticking with first division leagues from now on..second
leagues just don't deliver.
AC Milan v Udinese OVER 5/5 :)

Siena v Chievo OVER 5/5 :(
Palermo v Sampdoria OVER 5/5 :(
Lille v Strasbourg UNDER 5/5 :)

Sochaux v Lens UNDER 5/5 :)
Ferrol v R Madrid B OVER 4/5 :(

Gijon v Cuidad de Murcia UNDER 5/5 :(
Lorca v Numancia UNDER 5/5 :)
Elche v Malaga B OVER 5/5 :(
Ejido v Almeria OVER 5/5 :(
OB v Viborg OVER 5/5:)
CURRENT: 5 / 11 = 45.45%
OVERALL: 31 / 54 = 57.40%
yuvalfra
07-11-05, 19:59
Bolton v Tottenham UNDER 5/5
yuvalfra
07-11-05, 21:23
Bolton v Tottenham UNDER 5/5 :)
CURRENT: 1 / 1 = 100%
OVERALL: 32 / 55 = 58.18%
AndreAlemao
07-11-05, 21:30
Yuvalfra what are you doing there? How you want to show something
without odds? :?
yuvalfra
07-11-05, 21:42
True AndreAlemao, simply in the beggining bets I didn't have time to
write the odds, so it went on till now..
I said to myself I'll present the odds later, as it's all in my betfair history.
The truth is what interests me most is the hit-rate, I aim to hit more than
55% accuracy in the long run, the odd is of less importance, as it will
surely be averaged somewhere around 1.75-1.80.
From my next bets I will include odds, and will try to calculate the average
won odd fom the older bets.
Thanks for your input.
yuvalfra
07-11-05, 21:58
Ok, done some calculations..
as expected, won odd average is 1.776.
I will incl. odds from now on, as I did in the past.
OVERVIEW:
32 won / 55 = 58.18%
average odd = 1.776
Yielf = +3.32%
Wettmeister
08-11-05, 11:42
True AndreAlemao, simply in the beggining bets I didn't have time to
write the odds, so it went on till now..
I said to myself I'll present the odds later, as it's all in my betfair history.
The truth is what interests me most is the hit-rate, I aim to hit more than
55% accuracy in the long run, the odd is of less importance, as it will
surely be averaged somewhere around 1.75-1.80.
From my next bets I will include odds, and will try to calculate the average
won odd fom the older bets.
Thanks for your input.
if you hit rate is 55% , then you should only bet on overs over odd 1.82
:wink:
yuvalfra
08-11-05, 12:08
Well that's not a final hit rate, it will get higher.
The aim is to hit OVER 55% with 1.80 and higher. I won't limit myself only
to high odd bets.
yuvalfra
14-11-05, 22:49
No picks... :(
yuvalfra
19-11-05, 14:13
Here we go...
Real Madrid v Barcelona OVER 5/5 @ 1.80

Sevilla v Betis UNDER 5/5 @ 1.61
Udinese v Messina UNDER 5/5 @ 1.85
Kaiserslautern v Nurnberg OVER 5/5 @ 1.63
Monaco v St Etienne UNDER 5/5 @ 1.62

Lyon v Troyes UNDER 5/5 @ 2.00
Lens v Metz OVER 5/5 @ 2.32
Porto v Academica UNDER 5/5 @ 1.91
yuvalfra
19-11-05, 23:13
Seems there is no interest anymore in the system, should I stop? I'm not
doing it for experimenting anymore, I'm staking money, so I don't require
the forum for recording my results. Is this helping anyone?
Real Madrid v Barcelona OVER 5/5 @ 1.80 :)

Sevilla v Betis UNDER 5/5 @ 1.61 :)
Udinese v Messina UNDER 5/5 @ 1.85 :)
Kaiserslautern v Nurnberg OVER 5/5 @ 1.63 :)
Monaco v St Etienne UNDER 5/5 @ 1.62 :)

Lyon v Troyes UNDER 5/5 @ 2.00 :(
Lens v Metz OVER 5/5 @ 2.32 :(
Porto v Academica UNDER 5/5 @ 1.91 :(
CURRENT : 5 / 8 = 62.50%
OVERALL : 37 / 63 = 58.73%
average odd = 1.766
Yield = +3.71%
yuvalfra
19-11-05, 23:42
While waiting for response, here are the next bets...
Tottenham v West Ham UNDER 5/5 @ 1.74

Chievo v Ascoli UNDER 5/5 @ 1.70
Fiorentina v AC Milan OVER 4/5 @ 2.10
Inter v Parma OVER 5/5 @ 1.79
Ath Bilbao v Alaves UNDER 5/5 @ 1.78

Celta Vigo v Atl Madrid UNDER 5/5 @ 1.71
Santander v Deportivo UNDER 5/5 @ 1.71
Stuttgart v Hannover OVER 5/5 @ 1.97
Boavista v Leiria OVER 5/5 @ 2.24
Sparta R v Heerenv OVER 5/5 @ 1.74
wayne99
20-11-05, 11:27
DAMN right it's helping!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Your tips were great yesterday expecialy first 5... :D :D :D
Please continue with your work :wink:
Ira32
20-11-05, 11:41
DAMN right it's helping!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Your tips were great yesterday expecialy first 5... :D :D :D
Please continue with your work :wink:
I agree, please continue posting
yuvalfra
20-11-05, 17:46
Ok, don't think that I just want praise or anything like that...but I would
like to believe that someone's reading the thread, or making use of it, else
it's a waste of time...
Today's picks look good, will post results later on.
wayne99
20-11-05, 18:26
I'm reading your posts almost every day and i think they're great...
Today i scored...
Tottenham v West Ham UNDER
Chievo v Ascoli UNDER
Athletic Bilbao v Deportivo Alaves UNDER
Stuttgart v Hannover OVER
...because of YOU :D thank you
I am just waiting Bordeaux v Paris S.G UNDER and this will be a perfect
day...
Continue with your posts............
yuvalfra
20-11-05, 21:32
Well, the system's working - it's producing profit. But, it always seems to
start good and end awful. Started out with 6 out of 6, final stats 6 out of
10, which means only low profit. But steadily, it's increasing my bank.
Can anyone check if I'm calculating my yield profit correctly? Thanks.
Tottenham v West Ham UNDER 5/5 @ 1.74 :)

Chievo v Ascoli UNDER 5/5 @ 1.70 :)
Fiorentina v AC Milan OVER 4/5 @ 2.10 :)
Inter v Parma OVER 5/5 @ 1.79 :(
Ath Bilbao v Alaves UNDER 5/5 @ 1.78 :)

Celta Vigo v Atl Madrid UNDER 5/5 @ 1.71 :(
Santander v Deportivo UNDER 5/5 @ 1.71 :(
Stuttgart v Hannover OVER 5/5 @ 1.97 :)
Boavista v Leiria OVER 5/5 @ 2.24 :(
Sparta R v Heerenv OVER 5/5 @ 1.74 :)
CURRENT : 6 / 10 = 60.00%
OVERALL : 43 / 73 = 58.90%
Average Odd = 1.776
Yield = +4.606%
yuvalfra
21-11-05, 10:23
Help...does anyone know a website where I can get average points scored
and received per home / away game, on NBA?
Thanks.
ine
21-11-05, 11:13
Help...does anyone know a website where I can get average points scored
and received per home / away game, on NBA?
Thanks.
regarde là : http://www.betexplorer.com/basketball/usa/NBA-2005-2006/
en espérant que tu trouves ton bonheur :wink:
my english is so poor
yuvalfra
21-11-05, 11:34
Great ine!
Thank you so much.
wayne99
22-11-05, 13:01
Any picks today????????????????
yuvalfra
22-11-05, 20:02
I've decided to bet only on premier leagues.
rado_tdr
22-11-05, 23:09
I think this website can help you too.
http://stats.sportfogadas.org/index.php
John Shura
24-11-05, 06:09
Yestoday I have great result with this strategu at russian ice hockey
league:
Molot - Sibir UNDER :)
Lokomotiv - Metalurg OVER :(
Bars - Vitjaz UNDER :)
Neftechimik - MVD UNDER :)
Severstal - Khimik UNDER :)
CSKA - Metalurg UNDER :)
SKA - Avangard UNDER :)
Spartak - Dimano OVER :(
Today predictions by NHL is:

--------------------------------
Atlanta - Rangers UNDER (7)
Nashvill - Los Angeles OVER (5,5)
Vankuver - San Jose OVER (5,5)
GOOD LUCK!
John Shura
25-11-05, 05:43
NHL is not to good.
Atlanta - Rangers UNDER (7) :(
Nashvill - Los Angeles OVER (5,5) :)
Vankuver - San Jose OVER (5,5) :(
yuvalfra
25-11-05, 22:01
Lets give NBA a try...
Atlanta @ Indiana under 192.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90

Charlotte @ Boston under 201.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90
Houston @ Memphis over 174.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90
Milwaukee @ Minnesota under 193.5pts 4/5 @ 1.90
Portland @ Orlando over 173.5pts 4/5 @ 1.90
Toronto @ Sacramento under 204.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90
yuvalfra
26-11-05, 08:31
Results...Not bad...
Atlanta @ Indiana under 192.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90 :)

Charlotte @ Boston under 201.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90 :)
Houston @ Memphis over 174.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90 :(
Milwaukee @ Minnesota under 193.5pts 4/5 @ 1.90 :)
Portland @ Orlando over 173.5pts 4/5 @ 1.90 :)
Toronto @ Sacramento under 204.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90 :(
NBA: CURRENT: 4 / 6 = 66.66%

NBA: OVERALL: 4/ 6 = 66.66%
AVERAGE ODD: 1.90
Yield = +26.66%
yuvalfra
26-11-05, 11:58
Aston Villa v Charlton OVER 5/5 @ 2.24
Man City v Liverpool UNDER 5/5 @ 1.64
Wigan v Tottenham UNDER 5/5 @ 1.63
Portsmouth v Chelsea UNDER 5/5 @ 1.92
Mallorca v Ath Bilbao OVER 4/5 @ 2.26

Valencia v Celta Vigo OVER @ 2.26 ( all values are exactly 2.5 , going
with value )
Hannover v Kaiserslautern OVER 4/5 @ 1.73

Nurnberg v Dortmund OVER 5/5 @ 1.80
Sochaux v Rennes UNDER 5/5 @ 1.62

yuvalfra
26-11-05, 16:03
NBA:
Memphis @ Dallas under 185.5pts 4/5 @ 1.90

New Orleans @ Seattle over 191.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90
Toronto @ Golden State under 199.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90
Washington @ Charlotte under 200.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90
yuvalfra
26-11-05, 22:57
Aston Villa v Charlton OVER 5/5 @ 2.24 :(
Man City v Liverpool UNDER 5/5 @ 1.64 :)
Wigan v Tottenham UNDER 5/5 @ 1.63 :(
Portsmouth v Chelsea UNDER 5/5 @ 1.92 :)
Mallorca v Ath Bilbao OVER 4/5 @ 2.26 :(

Valencia v Celta Vigo OVER @ 2.26 ( all values are exactly 2.5 , going
with value ) :(
Hannover v Kaiserslautern OVER 4/5 @ 1.73 :)

Nurnberg v Dortmund OVER 5/5 @ 1.80 :)
Sochaux v Rennes UNDER 5/5 @ 1.62 :)
CURRENT : 5 / 9 = 55.55%
OVERALL : 48 / 87 = 55.17%
chocapic
26-11-05, 23:45
Hi ! After having read all the pages, this system seems to be worth a try,
but what do you use to get these stats ?
The link for the program is dead so if someone could reupload it

somewhere like at http://www.yousendit.com/ it would be very nice !
And I did not manage to find a good and clear site that hosts these
statistics, so if you have one that do the job it would be nice too :wink:
I apologize for my english by the way
wayne99
27-11-05, 11:11
Hy I'm sure you must have picks for Italian league today :D
+Jimmy+
27-11-05, 13:05
May I know which do you guys visit for past records between 2 teams and
their last 10 matches at least? Beside using Soccerway of course....
yuvalfra
27-11-05, 14:03
Unfortunately did not arrive home in time to place bets, what a waste...
NBA:
Memphis @ Dallas under 185.5pts 4/5 @ 1.90

New Orleans @ Seattle over 191.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90
Toronto @ Golden State under 199.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90
Washington @ Charlotte under 200.5pts 5/5 @ 1.90
NBA : CURRENT : 2 / 4 = 50.00%
NBA : OVERALL : 6 / 10 = 60.00%
yuvalfra
27-11-05, 14:12
NBA:
New Jersey @ LA Lakers over 193.5pts 4/5 @ 1.90

Portland @ Atlanta over 185.5pts 4/5 @ 1.90
Indiana @ LA Clippers over 192.5 5/5 @ 1.90
yuvalfra
27-11-05, 15:02
Atl Madrid v Espanyol UNDER 5/5 @ 1.70
Betis v Cadiz UNDER 5/5 @ 1.61
Deportivo v Villarreal OVER 4/5 @ 2.32
Getafe v Malaga OVER 5/5 @ 2.20
Pacos de Ferreira v Naval UNDER 5/5 @ 1.71
Benfica v Belenenses OVER 5/5 @ 1.98
John Shura
29-11-05, 12:20
Finland icehockey
Pelicans - Esset UNDER(5)
Ilves - Kieko Espoo UNDER(5)
Lukko - HPK UNDER(5)
Kerpet - KalPa UNDER(6)
Yuv - Yokerit OVER(5)
Hifk - SeyPa OVER(4,5)
TPS - Tappara OVER(4)
John Shura
30-11-05, 05:32
Finland icehockey
Pelicans - Esset UNDER(5) :(
Ilves - Kieko Espoo UNDER(5) :(
Lukko - HPK UNDER(5) :(
Kerpet - KalPa UNDER(6) :)
Yuv - Yokerit OVER(5) :)
Hifk - SeyPa OVER(4,5) :)
TPS - Tappara OVER(4) :(
Hi All! Please tell me at what site is't home/away statistics?
typosfera_net
30-11-05, 08:08
in Fin hockey ??
http://www.livescore.cc
as well.
ine
30-11-05, 13:44
http://www.betexplorer.com/hockey/
StefanBG
19-12-05, 12:04
yuvalfra a very good strategy indeed, I'd be glad if you continue posting
your picks - I am sure that there are people interested in your system but
they are ungreatful and are not posting :)
kikekike
27-12-05, 09:32
anyone with the link ?
thanx
hirosia
27-12-05, 12:01
i new here...can some one provide the uo system scrip file to me, i can
download from the previous one...thank!
yuvalfra
12-12-06, 21:53
I'm BACK!
Over/Under project might be resumed soon enough.
Stay tuned.
yuvalfra
12-12-06, 21:59
OK, I'm looking for someone who can build a program that will calculate
probabilities and bets, according to the system strategy.
For further information and propositions contact me via MESSENGER

yuval_fr@012.net.il or ICQ 59481428.
My email is yuvalfrr@gmail.com
Thanks
Gaztro
12-12-06, 22:25
Dont you take any consideration of the prize? I mean if you find a small
possibility ov Over then its quite a difference if the prize is 1,20 or 2,10
isnt it?
koper
14-12-06, 21:59
To me you don't need any calculation cuz bookies made them, if a odd is
smaller on Over then Under just bet the small stake every time, is it
correct?
punter2000
15-02-07, 15:32
It's my first time seen this thread and I have to admit that this system is
astonishing!!!!
But why all of sudden, the posts stopped coming?
did anything happen?

or the system didn't work or what?
punter2000
16-02-07, 16:30
Well, I'm greatly inspired by yuvalra, and now I would like to carry on
with his amazing strategy..
The table that you see right now is a calculation according to yuvalra
formulae
And from all the match for this saturday, I could only find this very
ensuring as all the stats show "UNDER "
But I would like to say that I'm not used to this system as I solely used
Asian Handicapped but still I would like to find out if this system works
Here's the table
Wolves Burnley
Scored 1.38 0.81
Conceived 1.06 1.06
Total 2.44 1.87
Average 1.22 0.935
Average of Average 2.155
Under Over
History games H2H 5
punter2000
16-02-07, 16:33
sorry if the view is very uncomfortable as I copy and paste it from my
excel and it turned out to be in different format
well just want to say that it's strongly under
therefore I would go for under with $20
Bankroll : $400
actually I would like to go lower but too bad the min bet is $ 20
:oops:
let's just hope that wolves Burnley is under
GL 2 All
yuvalfra
17-02-07, 22:38
It's my first time seen this thread and I have to admit that this system is
astonishing!!!!
But why all of sudden, the posts stopped coming?
did anything happen?

or the system didn't work or what?
Well, last time I kept track of the system I had a special code that Regand
supplied which made calculating easier. The code no longer is availiable.
So it's just too much hasstle to calculate many games manually. But the
system should still work and be able to get you guys good money :)
I might resume the strategy record possibly by using an Excel file to make
calculation easier.
Stay tuned.
soczi
18-02-07, 02:42
I've just come across this thread as I find quite a lot of interest in
statistical analysis in sports. Honestly, I didn't expect to find a thread here
that lasted so long, many replies and updates. The system seems to work
fine especially in the beginning of the season I assume. As the season
goes longer, the results are probably less profitable in the long run and
you mentioned it a couple of times. It's quite obvious as teams tend to
change tactics, coaches, there is also the impact of the weather that
matters. I guess the Home/Away form of the teams should also be taken
into consideration for that matter if you want your results to be as
consistent throughout the whole season. This means one would have to
make a spreadsheet calculation as scoring averages based on a certain
amount of games are not easily available (if one needs to check lots of
games from differen leagues). Nevertheless the fact that you based your
system on home/away comparisons is crucial to the success of the system
IMO.
I spent quite a lot of time myself on spreadsheets of that sort for ice
hockey and basketball which are a little more complicated as there is a lot
of data included which they analyze - actually I'm still working on them as
there is a lot to be desired I guess.
I kept thinking about football though as this was and still is my prime
sport both actively and passively. What I was missing was a lack of stats
as I was thinking about a system that would include all sorts of goals
scored that is from set pieces (free kicks, penalties, corners etc), the
efficiency of set pieces taken, counterattacking goals, shots taken,
perhaps possession and so on. The preferable tactics and style of play of
each and every team would also be valuable for that matter. It seems to
be rather some sort of a dream to get access to such data anywhere on
the Net unless you read through all match reports and count yourself. I
know some info is easily available but on the whole it's not.
But still football is all about scoring goals so maybe leaving it simple
proves best bearing in mind time one sacrifies to it and the profits it is
supposed to generate.
I must admit your idea really encouraged me to have a try at it. Although
I tend to be quite busy from time to time it shouldn't take long to apply
your idea to a spreadshhet calculation of Excel. Then it would be much
easier to experiment and examine different solutions based on your idea
and who knows maybe it will evolve somehow (though it still looks great
so maybe there is no need or is not worth it) . What one would need to do
in the end while using this spradsheet, (at least at the beginning), is to
provide results of consecutive fixtures to the spredsheet but I guess it
doesn't take much time even if you consider a dozen leagues or more.
Some could say that bookies have tried it all since the booking industry
has its history and experience but IMO they are very often lazy b... and
thus there are lots of loopholes (niches) that can be found.
By the way I wasn't able to open any of the additions (adds-in) mentioned
here (Internet sites?) that u guys were using to calculate or ??? So maybe
I'm losing some interesting tool. If it's not possible to get that somewhere
pls at least give some info on what it was exactly.
Almost forgotten I don't think this system can bring some superb results
for instance in basketball unless one has deep knowledge about the teams
playing, that is above all the pace of game they play or prefer to play as
well as the offense and defense regarding most important aspects of the
game (paint, distance, perimeter, 3pts etc).
Good luck (I'll get you know when it is finished). Or maybe someone has
already put some effort to it?
yopsb
03-07-07, 14:04
Hi !!!
Does anybody still use this strategy ?
ty
yuvalfra
15-08-07, 20:33
Hello everyone, I'm back. As the major leagues' season is upon us, soon it
is time to use my under/over system again, hopefully making good profit
according to past success of this strategy.
Please, if anyone who understands how the strategy works and/or used it
in the past, and is able to build some code for easy calculation of
under/over prediction (in accordance with my guidelines) please contact
me!
yuvalfrr@gmail.com
Messenger: yuval_fr@012.net.il
Good luck everyone
EmrahGS
21-08-07, 13:04
I have made an excel formula, and added you to MSN. Lets try :D
Tampines v SengKang
UNDER 3,5 @ 1,95 Lost :( Result= 4-0
Average: 3,25
Max/min average: 3,25
EmrahGS
21-08-07, 13:11
My only concern here is, for example, in above case:
3,25 is for sure under 3,5.

But it is more than 3 goals.... :oops:
Should we only take it when the average is not only under 3,5 but also
under 3?
EmrahGS
22-08-07, 23:49
DC United - New York
OVER 2.5 @ 1,85 WON :D (score 3-1)
average is 3,5 :idea:.. Seems like a banker over
EmrahGS
23-08-07, 17:51
Flamengo v Juventude
OVER 2,5 @ 1,65 WON :D Result 4-0
Average: 3,81 Seems to be a banker over
LA Galaxy v Chivas
OVER 2,5 @ 1,90 WON :D Result 3-0
Average: 3,0
Record:
3W 1L
EmrahGS
25-08-07, 11:53
Longford Town v St Patricks
UNDER 2.5 @ 1,60 LOST :( Score: 2-1
Average: 1,9
Oita Trinita v Vissel Kobe

OVER 2.5 @ 1,55 LOST :( Score 2-0
Average: 3,3
Haugesund v HamKam
OVER 2.5 @ 1,45 WON :D Score 2-4
Average: 3,9
NE Revolution v Red Bull New York

OVER 2.5 @ 1.80 WON :D Score 2-1
Average: 3,3
Record
5W 3L
jerome81
30-08-07, 18:48
hi, there's point i dun realli understand. for most of the league, the season
has jus started. so if i use the past record to cal the formula, it is jus onli
a few games for calculation(4 or 5 matches onli). will it be accurate??
yuvalfra
30-08-07, 21:15
hi, there's point i dun realli understand. for most of the league, the season
has jus started. so if i use the past record to cal the formula, it is jus onli
a few games for calculation(4 or 5 matches onli). will it be accurate??
Good question.
Regularly, you need at least 5 games to have been played before statistics
can be applied. That is why I haven't bet yet on the big leagues. I'm
waiting a few weeks and then starting, when stats can be used.
jerome81
30-08-07, 22:11
thanks for the ans. anonther question. for those league that involved
clubs from difference countries example champion league, how r we going
to calculate the rate?? isst based on the last season champion league's
result? if so, wat abt those club tat did not qualify in the last season but
entering this season?? :)
EmrahGS
30-08-07, 23:40
Vasco de Gama v Nautico Recife
OVER 2.5 @ 1,55 WON :D
Average: 3.3
Score: 4-1
Record
6W 3L
EmrahGS
31-08-07, 11:01
After 9 bets:
if we started with a bank of 100 and each time bets of 10.. we would now
have a bank of 112
What concerns the question above.. thats why I am playing USA, Brazil,
Scandinavian leagues, because they are already at the end of the season.
In a couple of weeks I will start with European leagues.
yuvalfra
31-08-07, 16:53
thanks for the ans. anonther question. for those league that involved
clubs from difference countries example champion league, how r we going
to calculate the rate?? isst based on the last season champion league's
result? if so, wat abt those club tat did not qualify in the last season but
entering this season?? :)
Unfortunately I was not able to apply the strategy/system on cup games -

wether they be CL, Uefa, or even league cups. Cup games are just way
too unpredictable.
I think next week I will start with the big leagues (england, italy, spain,
germany, france etc).
Stay tuned! :)
yuvalfra
31-08-07, 16:57
After 9 bets:
if we started with a bank of 100 and each time bets of 10.. we would now
have a bank of 112
What concerns the question above.. thats why I am playing USA, Brazil,
Scandinavian leagues, because they are already at the end of the season.
In a couple of weeks I will start with European leagues.
6 wins out of 9 bets is IMO a very good record (66.6%), however the odds
you are getting are the reason the yield/increase was only +12%.
When I tested the system I used Betfair.com as it has the highest odds.
Certain games with an odd that was too low (like 1.60 and under) I simply
did not touch because they don't have big profit potential.
EmrahGS
06-09-07, 23:20
Today played:
Sirius Uppsala v Hacken Goteborg

Average: 3.3
Record: 7W 3L
Bank: 119 (+19%)
EmrahGS
07-09-07, 16:39
Galway Utd v Drogheda United
UNDER 2.5 @ 1,60 WON :D Score: 1-1
Average: 1.9
Record 8W 3L
Bank: 125 (+25%)
SirTomDobby
09-09-07, 12:20
VFL Wolfsburg 2 - Werder Bremen 2
OVER 2,5 @1,7
Avg. 3,5
Babelsberg - Rot Weiss Essen

UNDER 2,5 @1,8
Avg. 1,66
RW Erfurt - Union Berlin

OVER 2,5 @1,8
Avg. 4,42
Let´s see. ;)
EmrahGS
10-09-07, 10:32
Sirtomdobby,
You had too less games to have a good average. Thats why I use mostly
scandinavian and brasil leagues.
Cork City v UCD Dublin

Average: 1.7
Record 8W 4L
Bank: 115 (+15%)
yuvalfra
10-09-07, 11:47
Yeah, I think 5 games is the bare minimum. Less than that is just
coincidence.
Nice betting Emrah ;)
EmrahGS
12-09-07, 23:31
Flamengo v Cruzeiro
Average: 3.7
9W 4L
Bank: 124,5 (24,5%)
yuvalfra
14-09-07, 14:11
http://www.kopykatz.org/newkk/kk/images/icons/standard/icon14.gif
EmrahGS
14-09-07, 15:49
Shamrock Rovers v Galway Utd
Average: 1.6
9W 5L
Bank: 114,5 (+14,5%)
SirTomDobby
15-09-07, 09:38
JEF United Ichihara Chiba - Vissel Kobe
over 2,5
Avg: 3,71
EmrahGS
15-09-07, 14:20
NE Revolution v Dallas
OVER 2.5 @ 1,85 WON :D Score: 4-2
Average: 3.1
10W 5L
Bank: 123 (+23%)
SirTomDobby
15-09-07, 22:28
over 2,5
Avg: 3,71
4:2 FT :)
Goias - Nautico
over 2,5
Avg. 3,34
SirTomDobby
16-09-07, 08:55
over 2,5
Avg: 3,71
4:2 FT :)
Goias - Nautico
over 2,5
Avg. 3,34
0:3 FT ;)
SirTomDobby
16-09-07, 09:37
My focus for today is on the brasilian league.
Minierio - Cruzeiro over 2,5
Avg. 3,29
Sport - Paranas over 2,5

Avg. 3,27
Figuerense - Juventude over 2,5

Avg. 3,275
Flamengo - Vasco de Gama over 2,5

Avg. 3,2
:)
Tips so far:
2W
0L
yuvalfra
16-09-07, 13:46
I am very proud of my system :D :D :D
Way to go guys, Keep winning!
EmrahGS
16-09-07, 21:07
I only play this match, as I play this system a bit safer (also looking the
total goals of home or away to be above 3, not only the average)
Figueirense v Juventude
Average: 3.3
11W 5L
Bank 130 (+30%)
SirTomDobby
16-09-07, 22:38
My focus for today is on the brasilian league.
Minierio - Cruzeiro over 2,5

Avg. 3,29
Sport - Paranas over 2,5

Avg. 3,27
Figuerense - Juventude over 2,5

Avg. 3,275
Flamengo - Vasco de Gama over 2,5

Avg. 3,2
:)
Tips so far:
2W
0L
sport over
minierio over
4W
0L
2 open
:)
yuvalfra
17-09-07, 01:43
Figueirense v Juventude OVER :)
SirTomDobby
17-09-07, 06:31
figuerense over
:)
flamengo 1:1 :(
5W 1L
Rickie
17-09-07, 09:52
Guys, how do I know which match to bet on? There are so many matches
in a day. Im sure there are many which qualify as well..
Azure
17-09-07, 10:33
Guys, how do I know which match to bet on? There are so many matches
in a day. Im sure there are many which qualify as well..
Sure there are. But why don't you read the first post of this thread to get
an :idea:? yuvalfra explained the system there....
Over the last couple of weeks, I tested this on some leagues, too - worked
out quite well.
@yuvalfra: Do you still use this yourself? Question is: how do you limit
your bets when the recently started leagues get playable in two/three
rounds? I could imagine that the number of possible bets will rise
massively then. Till now, I bet singles at odds>1,8 and occasionally
parlayed some of the rest.
SirTomDobby
17-09-07, 11:57
My Pick(s) for today:
Aalesund - Strømsgodset over 2,5 (19:00)

Avg. 3,215
Sirius - Falkenbergs FF over 2,5 (19:00)

Avg. 3,13
Stats so far:
6 Picks total
5 won (83,3%)
1 lost (16,6%)
yuvalfra
17-09-07, 17:05
@yuvalfra: Do you still use this yourself? Question is: how do you limit
your bets when the recently started leagues get playable in two/three
rounds? I could imagine that the number of possible bets will rise
massively then. Till now, I bet singles at odds>1,8 and occasionally
parlayed some of the rest.
At the moment I am not using the system. The other guys have had luck
with various minor leagues (Brazil, Ireland etc) but I am waiting for the
big leagues to become playable. That would mean Spain, England, Italy,
Germany, France and Portugal. They will become playable within several
weeks. Right now the stats are somewhat random (only 2-4 matches have
been played).
As for which bets to choose - my stand a couple years ago when the
system was introduced is, as said, to bet on the big european leagues. In
addition I would not touch odds that are too low. If I remember correctly I
would bet only at above 1.60 per bet. I used Betfair.com for my bets.
Usually there were around 20 bets every played week. Thats not so much.
Feel free to use the system on all leagues in which 10+ matches have
been played already. Seems the other guys are getting good yield with
them as well.
Lets break those bookies ;)

SirTomDobby
17-09-07, 21:34
Aalesund - Strømsgodset over 2,5 (19:00)

Avg. 3,215 3:2 FT
Sirius - Falkenbergs FF over 2,5 (19:00)

Avg. 3,13 4:0 FT 3 goals in last 3 minutes. :D
Stats so far:
8 Picks total
7 won (87,5%)
1 lost (12,5%)
:D
yuvalfra
18-09-07, 00:12
SirTomDobby, great stuff!
One question though - are you using my original guidlines, in which you
need 5/5 under or 5/5 over to qualify as a bet?
Azure
18-09-07, 00:54
If he does, that would've been 4/5-overs or "weak" 5/5 like others played
earlier in this thread. I didn't play these due to that fact - in this case:
unfortunately ;)
But that brought a question back up, yuvalfra: if you already have 4 of
the 5 conditions fulfilled, isn't the fifth obligatory? I mean, with MIN and
MAX being both over, the TOTAL has to be too! So, if you strictly stay with
5/5, you could use 4/4 as well or am I missing sth?
Rickie
18-09-07, 00:59
Sure there are. But why don't you read the first post of this thread to get
an :idea:? yuvalfra explained the system there....
Over the last couple of weeks, I tested this on some leagues, too - worked
out quite well.
I read it before I posted my question. What I was referring to is not the

system. You see, I'm sure there are lots of matches in a day which might
qualify for the system. Lets say there are 15 matches worth punting on.
We dont bet on all 15, do we? Hence, my question "Which matches to bet
on?"
But I think Yuvalfra has indirectly answered me in his recent reply. I

guess I'll wait for the major leagues then
SirTomDobby
18-09-07, 06:54
I orientate myself at the Average. If this is over 3,0 , i think about playing
this game.
What exactly do you mean by 4/5 or 5/5 ? i cant follow you at the
moment. ;)
SirTomDobby
18-09-07, 06:59
NO Bets today!
Stats so far:
8 Picks total
7 won (87,5%)
1 lost (12,5%)
yuvalfra
18-09-07, 12:46
There are 5 criterias in my under/over strategy: home team avg goals,

away team avg goals, overall avg goals, minimum avg goals and
maximum avg goals. If all criterias are under or over it's a 5/5. If any of
them do not match with the others, it's not a 5/5.
this game.
moment. ;)
Well, the average alone is certainly not enough. Eventhough you've been
having great success the last few bets you are not implimenting the
strategy that I've layed out. You better read the original thread again. You
must be sure you have 5/5 of the stats in order to bet.
Azure
18-09-07, 13:11
away team avg goals,
overall avg goals, minimum avg goals and maximum avg goals. If all
criterias are under or over
it's a 5/5. If any of them do not match with the others, it's not a 5/5.
Yes, I understood all that, but according to your initial post the overall avg
goals is the average
of min and max. If min and max both are already over, the overall avg
goals will be certainly over
as well, it cannot be under! So you don't need that number as long as you
don't want to bet on
matches that only meet 4/5 or 3/5 conditions.
yuvalfra
18-09-07, 15:52
away team avg goals,
overall avg goals, minimum avg goals and maximum avg goals. If all
criterias are under or over
it's a 5/5. If any of them do not match with the others, it's not a 5/5.
Yes, I understood all that, but according to your initial post the overall avg
goals is the average
of min and max. If min and max both are already over, the overall avg
goals will be certainly over
as well, it cannot be under! So you don't need that number as long as you
don't want to bet on
matches that only meet 4/5 or 3/5 conditions.
Yes, the overall average is the average of the minimum/maximum but it is

ALSO the average of home team goals avg and away team goals avg.
Both values are the same (wether you calculate min/max avg or
home/away avg).
If both minimum and maximum values are OVER then ofcourse the total
average will be OVER as well, but you still need to look at the average of
home team goals and away team goals.
Theoretically it is possible that home avg will be UNDER, away avg will be
OVER, minimum will be OVER, maximum will be OVER and overall avg will
be OVER, however that is a no-bet because as you see one value is
UNDER meaning it is a 4/5 OVER overall.
Do you understand now? ;)

Azure
18-09-07, 16:32
I hope, I'm not too blind to see the obvious ;) ....
The question remains the same: why do you need the overall avg? No
matter what source you use to
calculate it -be it home/away or min/max.
Ok, let me try to explain what I mean like this:

-home avg and away avg indicate different trends = no bet!
and/or
-min avg and max avg indicate different trends = no bet!
So in both cases you don't need the overall avg., because the matchup is
a no bet anyways.
-home avg and away avg indicate the same trend = possible bet!
and
-min avg and max avg indicate the same trend = possible bet!
If all four criterias point in the same direction, you don't need the overall
avg anymore, b/c it will surely
produce the same result. That is, as I said before, ONLY if you limit the
possible bets to 5/5! If you
also want to bet 4/5-trends, you will need the overall avg b/c of such
cases which you described above.
yuvalfra
18-09-07, 16:54
I hope, I'm not too blind to see the obvious ;) ....
The question remains the same: why do you need the overall avg? No
matter what source you use to
calculate it -be it home/away or min/max.
Ok, let me try to explain what I mean like this:

-home avg and away avg indicate different trends = no bet!
and/or
-min avg and max avg indicate different trends = no bet!
So in both cases you don't need the overall avg., because the matchup is
a no bet anyways.
-home avg and away avg indicate the same trend = possible bet!
and
-min avg and max avg indicate the same trend = possible bet!
If all four criterias point in the same direction, you don't need the overall
avg anymore, b/c it will surely
produce the same result. That is, as I said before, ONLY if you limit the
possible bets to 5/5! If you
also want to bet 4/5-trends, you will need the overall avg b/c of such
cases which you described above.
Ahhh, I get your point. Yes - if home avg, away avg, minimum and
maximum are all the same then yes, the overall avg is not needed :)
However, I still like to relate to bets as X/5, even if one of the criterias is
not "needed". It's just more info :)
SirTomDobby
18-09-07, 22:10

away team avg goals, overall avg goals, minimum avg goals and
maximum avg goals. If all criterias are under or over it's a 5/5. If any of
them do not match with the others, it's not a 5/5.
this game.
moment. ;)
Well, the average alone is certainly not enough. Eventhough you've been
having great success the last few bets you are not implimenting the
strategy that I've layed out. You better read the original thread again. You
must be sure you have 5/5 of the stats in order to bet.
You missunderstood me. I orientated myself at the Average which comes

out of your criterias.
I make an example
Dortmund vs Schalke
Dortmund
Home Avg. goals : 2,3
Home Avg. conceding goals : 1,4
Schalke
Away avg. goals : 1,9
Away avg. conceding goals : 1,3
No i compare like in your post these statistic as i take the home avg. goals
and the away avg conceding goals and the same with home conceding
and away scoring.
than i have a maximum and a minimum of scoring. in this example its like
that.
maximum 4,2 goals

minimum 2,7 goals
avg. : 3,45 goals
see? ;)
Azure
19-09-07, 01:33
Tom, the difference is that yuvalfra relies on the five criterias that he
described while you are using one
number of the system (although you calculate the others, too). Your BVB-
S04 example would be 5/5:
home avg, away avg, min, max and overall avg are all >2,5. But take for
instance your Aalesund-bet two
days ago: away avg and min were 2,444, so it was a 3/5-bet, strictly
speaking.
As you said that you bet only matchups that have an overall avg of >3,0 ,
it is likely that the other
criterias are over very often, too - but not in any case....
SirTomDobby
19-09-07, 08:46
Tom, the difference is that yuvalfra relies on the five criterias that he
described while you are using one
number of the system (although you calculate the others, too). Your BVB-
S04 example would be 5/5:
home avg, away avg, min, max and overall avg are all >2,5. But take for
instance your Aalesund-bet two
days ago: away avg and min were 2,444, so it was a 3/5-bet, strictly
speaking.
As you said that you bet only matchups that have an overall avg of >3,0 ,
it is likely that the other
criterias are over very often, too - but not in any case....
Ah and you mean its safer to just take those you fulfill all 5 criterias ? ok,
i see and understand. :)
yuvalfra
19-09-07, 16:34
Ah and you mean its safer to just take those you fulfill all 5 criterias ? ok,
i see and understand. :)
That's the idea of the system. You need 5/5 under or over in order to bet.
Savica
26-09-07, 08:44
Well, after I read this sistem very carefully I can tell that isnt such bad
thing. You said that the any team must play 4-5 games home or away,
and we only then can play at this sistem. In Germany Regional Nord there
is such situation. I found one very preety game.
Oberhausen-F.Dusseldorf!
Oberhausen home score 0.5 goals per game and receive 0.75
F.Dusseldorf away score 0.6 goals per game and receive 0.6
Max should be 1.35 goals and minimum should be 1.1
Average of min and max is 1.225!!!
After the all you said this should be clear game for UNDER!
Oberhausen-F.Dusseldorf - Under 1.65
Savica
26-09-07, 09:05
Other games are:
Sweden Allsvenskan
Gais - Goteborg
Gais : give 1.2 , receive 1.3
Goteborg : give 2.2 , receive 1.3
MAX:3.5 MIN:2.5 AVERAGE:3.0
GAIS-GOTEBORG OVER 1.85
Switzerland Super League

Young Boys - Aarau
Young Boys : give 2.75 , receive 1
Aarau : give 1.6 , receive 1.8
MAX: 4.35 MIN: 2.8 AVERAGE:3.575
YOUNG BOYS - AARAU OVER 1.6
Azure
26-09-07, 09:37
Hi, Savica.
RWO - Düsseldorf fits indeed very good in the system, but you
miscalculated sth:
Düsseldorf received only 0,2 and not 0,6. That makes the stats even
better:
min=0,8; max=1,25; overall=1,03;
...GAIS-IFK was played yesterday (0-1) !
ps_Wuppertal vs Union Berlin is another strong OVER according to the

system today.
Savica
26-09-07, 10:35
Hi, Savica.
RWO - Düsseldorf fits indeed very good in the system, but you
miscalculated sth:
Düsseldorf received only 0,2 and not 0,6. That makes the stats even
better:
min=0,8; max=1,25; overall=1,03;
...GAIS-IFK was played yesterday (0-1) !

system today.
GAIS-GOTEBORG 0-1! Fu...ck. I read this sistem yesterday almost all day,
and I meant he is working. It would be wrong pick. I didnt even start I
made wrong pick :(
And FOrtune receive 3 goals in 5 games away. That is at my mathetatic
0.6.
Today morrning I meant to play this sistem, but only after few hours
(now) maybe is better to skip all that.
Savica
26-09-07, 10:46
system today.
Strong??? Average 2.85?! And GAIS-GTBG were 3.575 (that isnt big?!)
In game Wuppertal - Union Berlin the MIN is goals difference for
Wuppertal, and MAX is goals difference for Union Berlin! Is that have a
effect on this sistem?
Azure
26-09-07, 11:31
@RWO-Dü
Don't know where you get 3 received goals from...
Union Berlin - Düsseldorf 0-1

Wuppertal - Düsseldorf 0-1
Cottbus II - Düsseldorf 0-1
Dresden - Düsseldorf 0-0
Magdeburg - Düsseldorf 1-0
equals one (1) received goal = 0,2 avg
@Wup-UB
Mate, what are you calculating? overall avg is 3,78 for this.
(GAIS-IFK was 3,00 and the min was only 2,5...)

I don't understand what you mean with this.
yuvalfra
26-09-07, 15:54
The MINIMUM value is the following:
lower value(home_scored or away_conceived) + lower

value(home_conveived or away_scored)
the MAXIMUM value is the following:
higher value(home_scored or away_conceived) + higher

value(home_conceived or away_scored)
You just cross the stats, and find the MIN/MAX. I believe the MIN/MAX
values are what gives the system an edge. They simulate the best-worst
scenario and if both scenarios are POSITIVE you have high chance of
winning your bet.
yuvalfra
26-09-07, 16:08
A bet from the Austrian T-Mobile Bundesliga:
LASK Linz - FK Austria Wien UNDER 5/5
Good odds too. Around 2.0 on Betfair.
Good luck
yuvalfra
26-09-07, 23:12
Linzer ASK 1:1 Austria Wien UNDER :)
It is no coincidence. The system simply WORKS.
cmf
27-09-07, 08:01
Hi!
I've just recently begun reading this thread more thoroughly and I must
tell you yuvalfra, you've got a good thing going on here. Congrats! ;)
Now, maybe you guys can set me straight on some things. I understood
the way you're computing the goals, but I'd like to know how many games
do you go back to do the math (like the last 5 games, or since the
beginning of the season or what?) and how long do you wait after a
league has started before you take any picks from it (like say you won't
start analyzing it before the 5th round, 10th round or what?).
Oh, and one more thing. According to your stats does the system work on
all leagues, or are there any, let's say preferred, leagues to bet on?
Thx and keep up the good work!
Savica
27-09-07, 08:58
Lets see did I understand...
The game in Sunday:
Aalesunds FK - Tromso IL
Aalesunds FK HOME 5 1 4 - 20:21

Tromso IL AWAY 3 2 6 - 19:21
MIN should be 3.62, and MAX is 4.1!

Average 3.86! I dont know how much is over, but at this sistem this
should be clear OVER game.
cmf
27-09-07, 09:41
I've started looking for some games. So far, from Ligue 2, 28-29, I've
found:
Guingamp Chateroux 2.25 2 2.25 2 2.125

Montpellier Sedan 2 1.75 2.4167 1.33 1.875
Angers Amiens 2 1.5 2 1.5 1.75
So, apparently all of them should be under, the most obvious being
Angers vs Amiens.
cmf
27-09-07, 10:01
And, on the same note, from the Irish League I've found:
Bohemians Sligo 1.75 2.17 2.17 1.75 1.96

Bray Shamrock 2.18 2.08 2.18 2.08 2.13
Galway Athletic 2.00 1.83 2.15 1.69 1.92
Longford Drogheda 1.92 1.83 2.08 1.67 1.88
So again, all look like under.
cmf
27-09-07, 10:21
I've found two value bets for today:
Tampere Haka 2.89 2.44 3.56 1.78 2.67

Mainz Munchen 1860 4.00 3.67 6.00 1.67 3.84
Both look like over. I'd advise caution though, as there haven't been too
many games played in their respective leagues.
Azure
27-09-07, 11:18
Linzer ASK 1:1 Austria Wien UNDER
It is no coincidence. The system simply WORKS.
Yeah :) Wuppertal-Union Berlin 4-3 OVER
Hopefully, this goes on. It seemed as if the system always went worse in
Dec/Jan....
Now, maybe you guys can set me straight on some things. I understood
the way you're computing the goals, but I'd like to know how many games
do you go back to do the math (like the last 5 games, or since the
beginning of the season or what?) and how long do you wait after a
league has started before you take any picks from it (like say you won't
start analyzing it before the 5th round, 10th round or what?).
Oh, and one more thing. According to your stats does the system work on
all leagues, or are there any, let's say preferred, leagues to bet on?
-yuvalfra relies on the complete season data; there have been some guys
in this thread who included additional "form"-numbers.
-how long to wait: I guess five rounds should do it.
-which leagues: that's the question ;)
Lets see did I understand...

The game in Sunday:
Aalesunds FK - Tromso IL
Aalesunds FK HOME 5 1 4 - 20:21
Tromso IL AWAY 3 2 6 - 19:21
MIN should be 3.62, and MAX is 4.1!
Average 3.86! I dont know how much is over, but at this sistem this
should be clear OVER game.
You got it! :)
I've started looking for some games. So far, from Ligue 2, 28-29, I've
found:
Guingamp Chateroux 2.25 2 2.25 2 2.125
Montpellier Sedan 2 1.75 2.4167 1.33 1.875
Angers Amiens 2 1.5 2 1.5 1.75
So, apparently all of them should be under, the most obvious being
Angers vs Amiens.
Correct, despite that Montpellier-Sedan is postponed! France in general
looks really great for UNDERs so far this season, but still only few rounds
played.
And, on the same note, from the Irish League I've found:
Bohemians Sligo 1.75 2.17 2.17 1.75 1.96
Bray Shamrock 2.18 2.08 2.18 2.08 2.13
Galway Athletic 2.00 1.83 2.15 1.69 1.92
Longford Drogheda 1.92 1.83 2.08 1.67 1.88
So again, all look like under.
I come to slightly different numbers (?), all of them supporting the UNDER
as well.
I've found two value bets for today:

Tampere Haka 2.89 2.44 3.56 1.78 2.67
Mainz Munchen 1860 4.00 3.67 6.00 1.67 3.84
Both look like over. I'd advise caution though, as there haven't been too
many games played in their respective leagues.
I wouldn't bet this.
Tampere-Haka: away=UNDER, min=UNDER (with 1,78 being quite low)
and the overall avg is not even close to 3,0.
Mainz-1860M: as you said - only three rounds played so far (H/A), min
very low again;
yuvalfra
27-09-07, 14:18
cmf, I'm glad you too are thrilled about the system (as I am).
To answer some of you questions:
The system is best to be applied on all league data dating back to fixture
no. 1.
I claim that you need at least 10 matches/rounds before you can calculate
statistic probability for under/over. Therefore, the major leagues are yet
to be able to produce good bets for the next weeks at least.
As for your question about which leagues to bet on - generally, all leagues
are ok. However, 3 years ago when I introduced the system I had much
luck in english premiership, france ligue 1 and danish superlige.
I stayed away from lower leagues, however english championship was

quite good.
Oh and one more thing - the system no longer supports "value" bets. I
noticed that on the long run they aren't worthwhile. We take only 5/5
bets.
bim
27-09-07, 16:11
it really works mate..i think too that easiest way of winning is betting on
under or over..cus there is just two possibilities..you just have too do
some maths..but who dont wanna do that when all we are here to make
profit..thanks yuvalfra..
sic6sic
27-09-07, 19:13
After several unsuccessful under/over math-strategies (which were most
of the time only effective on short term :oops: ), i started reading this
way of playing. I spent loads of time reading, thinking and testing
yuvalfra's system, and I’ve approved it :D , now It’s time for me to join.
I’ve made a small calculation field in excel, and now work with a 0.5
margin (whether he decides that one (of the 5) criteria is fulfilled). I don’t
know if this is enough, but after a week of testing, I got around 65-70 %
accuracy, so I guess it will be enough.
Initial bank: 200 Units

Stake for each pick: 10 Units
For today I got the following picks (odds from Expekt.com)
FC Honka - FC Inter (Under 2,5) @ 1.8 >>> 5/5 :D

Tampere Utd - FC Haka (Under 2,5) @ 1.73 >>> 5/5 :(
Kalmar FF - IFK Goteborg (Over 2,5) @ 1.8 >>> 3/5 :D
Sion - Thun (Under 2,5) @ 2.0 >>> 3/5 :(
York - Halifax Town (Over 2,5) @ 1.9 >>> 3/5 :D
I hope that, if i picked the wrong bets, or i did something wrong, you guys
can point it out.
EDIT: Yuvalfra, i didn't read your last post in time. So only take the 5/5
bets ? And which margin do u take ? Something like mine or something
different ?
l8erz
P.S. Thank you yuvalfra for one of the most effective, yet simple system
ever !
yuvalfra
27-09-07, 20:00
EDIT: Yuvalfra, i didn't read your last post in time. So only take the 5/5
bets ? And which margin do u take ? Something like mine or something
different ?
l8erz
P.S. Thank you yuvalfra for one of the most effective, yet simple system
ever !
Hey sic6sic, I'm glad you're joining us on our venture to kill the bookies :)
To answer your question - yes, only 5/5 bets are taken. In the beggining
when I first tested the system (3 years ago) I also took 3/5 and 4/5 bets
as "value" bets if the odd was rewarding (2.0+). However, after over 100
bets I realized that "value" bets actually have no "value" profit-wise. In
the beggining they were successful, and afterwards less successful and in
the end I found them not worth-while. A lower odd, yet more sure bet
(5/5 in stats) is more rewarding on the long run.
There are different ways to use my system, however I would prefer if all
bettors joining me will use the guidlines I specify, or else it will be a mess.
I didn't understand your question about margins? What do you mean?
Azure
27-09-07, 20:13
@Oberhausen-Düsseldorf yesterday: system produced a clear UNDER but
it went OVER with 2-2.
Düsseldorf with important players missing esp in defence.
That brought back the question how to use this. You could play every 5/5-
match regardless of weather- and team-news or try to select the ones
that seem most reasonable to you because of additional info you got. In
the 2nd case that would certainly be a lot more work, looking up lineups
and match-writeups, not to speak of the difficulties to actually get such
informations for some leagues.
Refinements could be:

-including recent form (let's say last 5 games)
-including h2h-record of the two teams involved
-including uptodate infos (injuries, suspensions, coach-changes, new
players, weather,...)
I know that goes against yuvalfra's intention to keep the system as simple
as possible, but perhaps some adjustments will be necessary to get
positive results with season proceeding. It would be of interest to get
reliable data for a whole season. In the past years this thread always went
to sleep in January and came up again with the start of the big leagues in
September. Yuvalfra, did you ever bet an entire season?
yuvalfra
27-09-07, 20:31
@Oberhausen-Düsseldorf yesterday: system produced a clear UNDER but
it went OVER with 2-2.
Düsseldorf with important players missing esp in defence.
That brought back the question how to use this. You could play every 5/5-
match regardless of weather- and team-news or try to select the ones
that seem most reasonable to you because of additional info you got. In
the 2nd case that would certainly be a lot more work, looking up lineups
and match-writeups, not to speak of the difficulties to actually get such
informations for some leagues.
Refinements could be:

-including recent form (let's say last 5 games)
-including h2h-record of the two teams involved
-including uptodate infos (injuries, suspensions, coach-changes, new
players, weather,...)
I know that goes against yuvalfra's intention to keep the system as simple
as possible, but perhaps some adjustments will be necessary to get
positive results with season proceeding. It would be of interest to get
reliable data for a whole season. In the past years this thread always went
to sleep in January and came up again with the start of the big leagues in
September. Yuvalfra, did you ever bet an entire season?
Refining the system and adding more criterias will, as you understood
yourself, un-simplify the system. I do not want that. Sure, more data
could aid in the system's accuracy but I find it almost impossible to
determine under or over according to so many different criterias.
All in all, as long as our hit-percentage is positive (~60%+) our system

will produce profit. That's all I am looking for - hit percentage. If I can get
a good hit percentage whilst keeping the system simple then I don't find
any reason to change it.
As for your question wether I ever bet an entire season the answer is no.
The system's records began in November 2004, wheras in December I
was recruited to the Israel IDF army. That meant I could not follow-up nor
bet. However, other bettors kept the system alive and bet after my
"retirement" and had very good success.
After that year I was still serving in the army, and was released a year
ago. However due to unforseen events in my life as of then I still could
not really resume betting.
I am back now ;)
Azure
27-09-07, 20:52
I am back now ;)
...and it's YOUR thread :) !
I respect that - I just got the impression that things tended to get worse
the more the season goes on.
Well, we'll see about that - let's hope we gonna make loads of loot! :D
interbastian
27-09-07, 22:42
Very interesting betting strategy yuvalfra!
Thanks for sharing.
You can count me as one of your many fans.
I will try your strategy on Swedish football and report my findings here.
Allsvenskan is notoriously difficult to predict.
I will also try your formula on Uruguayan football. It's a league were most
smaller teams are forced to play their home games on a neutral ground
when facing one of the two big teams.
Thus depriving the smaller teams of any home game advantage.
Your formula is based on home, away performance, it will be interesting
to see if it still works even when there is no home advantage.
I must ask you. How did you come up with this genial strategy?
sic6sic
28-09-07, 01:26
...
Well, lets say we calculate a MIN/MAX of 3.1

With a margin of 0.5, we can say a OVER 2.5 is a go.
I use (for now) all 0.5 margins, for all the 5 criteria (home avg, away avg,
min, max and min/max avg).
Logically, the higher the margin, the "safer" the bet, but this results in
fewer 5/5 games.
yuvalfra
28-09-07, 03:00
I must ask you. How did you come up with this genial strategy?
Most good ideas were thought of in a random and un-planned fashion. I

was honestly just playing around with the stats and gave it a go. Things
just evolved from there and it was a snow ball of success.
...
Well, lets say we calculate a MIN/MAX of 3.1

With a margin of 0.5, we can say a OVER 2.5 is a go.
I use (for now) all 0.5 margins, for all the 5 criteria (home avg, away avg,
min, max and min/max avg).
Logically, the higher the margin, the "safer" the bet, but this results in
fewer 5/5 games.
Again, my system can be used in various ways, however I do prefer to

keep the guidlines and rules constant. According to the system's original
rules 2.6 is over and 2.4 is under. In other words - I don't use margins.
sic6sic
28-09-07, 12:35
For today, i got these picks:
Osnabruck - St Pauli (Under 2,5) @ 1,8 :(

Salavia Praha - Tescoma Zlin (Under 2,5) @ 1,6 :(
Austria Wien Am - SV Bad Aussee (Over 2,5) @ 1,5 :D
ZTE - Vasas (Over 2,5) @ 1,65 :D
Guingamp - Chateauroux (Under 2,5) @ 1,6 :(
FC Omniworld - BV Veendam (Over 2,5) @ 1,5 :(
FC Eindhoven - FC Dordrecht (Over 2,5) @ 1,53 :D
Haarlem - RBC Roosendaal (Under 2,5) @ 2,2 :D
Total: 7W - 6L (53.8% Accuracy)
I hate those low odds at Expekt, but i need to play some money around,
because i still got a bonus left there :) .
Once i can withdraw everything, i'll deposit it into my betfair account, and
get some better odds.
sic6sic
28-09-07, 13:45
Is there still the need for a program, so we wouldn't have to calculate all
the matches manually.
Right now i'm just using a simple excel-ws, but i could program some (vb
/ access ?)
Just let me know, and i will think about it!
yuvalfra
28-09-07, 14:12
Is there still the need for a program, so we wouldn't have to calculate all
the matches manually.
Right now i'm just using a simple excel-ws, but i could program some (vb
/ access ?)
Just let me know, and i will think about it!
Hi sic6sic. A good friend of mine is working on a code and I have another

offer from Chris, a member on this forum to help as well. If things go
wrong and the need comes I will ask you for your help - thanks for
offering :)
yuvalfra
28-09-07, 14:16
By the way, some of the bets you took are from leagues with under 8
matches played, which is too little.
In addition 1.50 odds are way too low.
sic6sic
28-09-07, 14:27
i know, i noticed it when i was calculating.

But i'm just tryin' some out ... i have them marked as risky.
I agree, 1.5 is just too low, but it's just the fkn bookmaker:
expekt:
Osnabruck - St Pauli >>> Under 2.5 @ 1.8
Guingamp - Chateauroux >>> Under 2,5) @ 1,6
Betfair:
Osnabruck - St Pauli >>> Under 2.5 @ 2
Anyhow, they are low indeed.

So i should take a min odd as well ?
How much ? Min 1.7 or 1.8 ?
yuvalfra
28-09-07, 15:00
i know, i noticed it when i was calculating.

But i'm just tryin' some out ... i have them marked as risky.
I agree, 1.5 is just too low, but it's just the fkn bookmaker:
expekt:
Osnabruck - St Pauli >>> Under 2.5 @ 1.8
Betfair:
Osnabruck - St Pauli >>> Under 2.5 @ 2
Anyhow, they are low indeed.

So i should take a min odd as well ?
How much ? Min 1.7 or 1.8 ?
I think 1.6 is a good minimum.
sic6sic
28-09-07, 21:59
No good day today, neither was it yesterday.
I did the math this afternoon, and i selected now only the leagues in
which they have played +10 games.
I'll post the new picks later.
yuvalfra
28-09-07, 22:53
No good day today, neither was it yesterday.
I did the math this afternoon, and i selected now only the leagues in
which they have played +10 games.
I'll post the new picks later.
Well I told you some of the bets were no good. However, evne if they
were valid, bad days are only natural and we will overcome them in the
future. It's all about overall percentage, not daily. Good luck!
sic6sic
28-09-07, 23:08
Thank you for the feedback, do you ever sleep yuvalfra ? :)
Anyway, i'm going to try to keep myself to the strategy, your strategy.
For the 5 years i'm betting now, it will be the first time ever i'm just using
math to pick bets.
I must say, i find i quite strange, not looking up any fact, just calculate.
But after i read this whole topic, i saw there were ups and downs, but in
the end, there was profit :D :idea: :D
Anyway, i'm now going to look further into tomorrows matches, i'll post
them within the hour. Can check them please (just to make sure i'm doing
everything right) ?
sic6sic
29-09-07, 00:02
Here is my selection, all picks are 5/5 & based on 10+ played games in
the leagues.
Luch Energia - Rubin Kazan (Under 2.5) @ 1.60 :D

1.62 - 2.17 - 1.62 - 2.17 - 1.89
SV Kapfenberg - Leoben (Over 2.5) @ 1.60 :D

3.40 - 3.80 - 3.80 - 3.40 - 3.60
Histon - Weymouth (Over 2.5) @ 1.70 :D

3.17 - 3.67 - 3.67 - 3.17 - 3.42
Salisbury - Kidderminster (Over 2.5) @ 1.75 :(

2.67 - 4.40 - 2.67 - 4.40 - 3.53
Rushden and Diamonds - Stafford Rangers (Under 2.5) @ 1.80 :D

1.17 - 2.33 - 1.17 - 2.33 - 1.75
Crawley Town - Altrincham (Over 2.5) @ 1.70 :(

3.00 - 4.20 - 4.00 - 3.20 - 3.60
Farsley Celtic - Ebbsfleet United (Under 2.5) @ 1.85 :D

2.00 - 2.40 - 2.40 - 2.00 - 2.20
MKS Tur Turek - Piast Gliwice (Under 2.5) @ 1.65 :D

1.03 - 1.83 - 1.20 - 1.67 - 1.43
Degerfors IF - Östers IF (Under 2.5) @ 1.75 :D

2.00 - 2.42 - 2.42 - 2.00 - 2.21
Status:
Current picks: 7W - 2L (77.78 % Accuracy)
Total: 14W - 8L (63.64 % Accuracy)
Starting bank: 200 Units

Current bank: 223.31 Units
Comments or suggestions are very much welcome !
interbastian
29-09-07, 12:23
Hello sic6sic!
You know many different leagues, I'm impressed.

However if I remember correctly yuvalfra mentioned something long ago
about the formula not working at the end of the season.
If this is correct the strategy is not applicable to the game between
Degerfors IF - Östers IF as Superettan is coming to a close.
Would be nice to have this confirmed or dismissed by yuvalfra.

What do you say. Is the formula applicable at the end of seasons?
sic6sic
29-09-07, 12:43
Hello sic6sic!


Thanks interbastian, i'll wait for yuvalfra's answer, and i'll keep it in mind.
About the different leagues, i'm playing a lot on the english leagues (one,
two and conference) and the scandinavian ones, because i've always had
positive results in it, and i hope it will continue in this strategy. I'm from
Belgium myself, so i'm reading about our league and also the dutch
league daily, which means that betting on it is almost like an obligation to
me :D
We'll see further on.

And what about you interbastian, i read in your previous post that you are
trying the strategy too. How are the results ?
yuvalfra
29-09-07, 12:43
Hello sic6sic!


The system should work through-out the season, meaning also at its end.
However, I haven't bet at the end of the season in the 3 years since I
came up with the system, as I was serving in the military. However, in
this thread you can find success of other people who bet after I left, I
think Jovica is one of them. Anyway, I intend to use the system all season
long.
sic6sic
29-09-07, 12:53
@ yuvalfra: the thing i asked you about margins ... i did a lot of
calculations on other +10 leagues, with (0.5) and without a margin, i'll
see if it will raise the accuracy.
When you have a 2.5 in your calculations, we count it as not valid is

think?
So lets say:
2.0 - 2.5 - 2.0 - 2.25 - 2.3
Then we have a 4/5 on under ?
yuvalfra
29-09-07, 12:58
@ yuvalfra: the thing i asked you about margins ... i did a lot of
calculations on other +10 leagues, with (0.5) and without a margin, i'll
see if it will raise the accuracy.
When you have a 2.5 in your calculations, we count it as not valid is

think?
So lets say:
2.0 - 2.5 - 2.0 - 2.25 - 2.3
Then we have a 4/5 on under ?
Yes, 2.5 is borderline. Not over, neither under.

yuvalfra
29-09-07, 16:53
Results are looking pretty good, sic6sic.
Way to go.
lOZ
29-09-07, 17:20
Way to go.
Yuvalfra,
good to see you back my friend. I remeber you started this strategy to
years ago and it wa freaky how accurate it was.
Really looking forward to seeing it make a lot of money for everyone once
again. glad to see you are keeping it simple. that is the beauty of it.
loz
yuvalfra
29-09-07, 17:58
Way to go.
Yuvalfra,
good to see you back my friend. I remeber you started this strategy to
years ago and it wa freaky how accurate it was.
Really looking forward to seeing it make a lot of money for everyone once
again. glad to see you are keeping it simple. that is the beauty of it.
loz
Hey lOZ! Good to hear from you compadre. Hope you will join us this
season making money via u/o.
P.S. it was nearly three years ago. Time flies by way too quickly :(
sic6sic
30-09-07, 01:07
Here are the picks for Sunday:
Saturn - FC Moskva (Under 2.5) @ 1.60 :D

1.63 - 2.01 - 1.64 - 2.00 - 1.82
Nova Gorica - Maribor (Over 2.5) @ 1.65 :D
2.60 - 3.20 - 3.00 - 2.80 - 2.90
Oxford Utd - York City (Over 2.5) @ 1.85 :(

2.83 - 3.00 - 3.00 - 2.83 - 2.92
Notodden - Haugesund (Over 2.5) @ 1.60 :D

3.09 - 3.25 - 3.25 - 3.09 - 3.17
OB - Esbjerg (Over 2.5) @ 1.65 :(

3.00 - 6.00 - 3.00 - 6.00 - 4.50
Lyn - Stabaek (Over 2.5) @ 1.60 :D

2.60 - 3.90 - 3.30 - 3.20 - 3.25
Lillestrom - Brann (Over 2.5) @ 1.65 :D

2.70 - 3.80 - 3.00 - 3.50 - 3.25
Status:

Current bank: 234.30 Units
interbastian
30-09-07, 14:00
Good on ya sic6sic!
Here some of my calculations
San Lorenzo vs. Argentinos Juniors (Over 2.5 goals)

4.5 - 2.75 - 2.75 - 4.5 - 3.62
Here is how I got the results:
Home team goals scored at home, average: 2.25

Home team goals conceded away, average: 2.25
Overall average for goals in San Lorenzo's games: 4.5
Away team goals scored away, average: 1.5

Away team average goals conceded away, average: 1.25
Overall average for goals in Argentinos Juniors games: 2,75
Minimum amount of goals scored in the game: 1.25+1.5=2.75

Maximum amount of goals scored in the game: 2.25+2.25=4.5
Average of min/max amount of goals: 2.75+4.5=3.62
AIK vs. Gais (Under 2.5 goals)

1.18 - 2.26 - 1.18 - 2.26 - 2.04 (Under 2.5 goals)
Halmstads BK vs. Gefle IF (Over 2.5 goals)

3.17 - 2.81 - 3.17 - 2.81 - 2.99
IFK Göteborg vs. Hammarby (Under 2.5 goals)

2.17 - 2.2 - 2.17 - 2.2 - 2.18
Hope I have understood the way of calculating right.

If so it will be very interesting to so what sort of success we can have on
Swedish Allsvenskan which is very, very hard to predict.
sic6sic
30-09-07, 14:12
Good on ya sic6sic!
Here some of my calculations
San Lorenzo vs. Argentinos Juniors (Over 2.5 goals)

4.5 - 2.75 - 2.75 - 4.5 - 3.62
Here is how I got the results:
Home team goals scored at home, average: 2.25

Home team goals conceded away, average: 2.25
Overall average for goals in San Lorenzo's games: 4.5
Away team goals scored away, average: 1.5

Away team average goals conceded away, average: 1.25
Overall average for goals in Argentinos Juniors games: 2,75
Minimum amount of goals scored in the game: 1.25+1.5=2.75

Maximum amount of goals scored in the game: 2.25+2.25=4.5
Average of min/max amount of goals: 2.75+4.5=3.62

1.18 - 2.26 - 1.18 - 2.26 - 2.04 (Under 2.5 goals)

3.17 - 2.81 - 3.17 - 2.81 - 2.99
IFK Göteborg vs. Hammarby (Under 2.5 goals)

2.17 - 2.2 - 2.17 - 2.2 - 2.18
Hope I have understood the way of calculating right.

If so it will be very interesting to so what sort of success we can have on
Swedish Allsvenskan which is very, very hard to predict.
For San Lorenzo - Argentions Juniors i got the same values

but:
AIK vs. Gais (Under 2.5 goals) (it's a clear under, but i got different
values)
1.82 - 2.27 - 1.82 - 2.27 - 2.05

same values
IFK Göteborg vs. Hammarby (Under 2.5 goals) (i got only a 3/5)
2,09 - 2,82 - 2,36 - 2,55 - 2,45
Is it a mistake in my calculations or in yours ?

If it is mine, then i need to check my excel formulas again. :idea:
Can you look it up please ?
yuvalfra
30-09-07, 14:56
Well this is odd. For IFK Göteborg vs. Hammarby I got the following:
home avg = 2.18

away avg = 2.54
minimum = 2.18
maximum 2.54
overall avg = 2.36
That is different from both of your's.
Please check your calculation methods.
P.S. please remember during calculation you must include all decimel
values, meaning you cannot replace 2.545454 with 2.54 during
calculation. After you find the values, you can minimize it, as you can see
above in my calculation some values were longer and I shortened them -
but ONLY after calculation.
Rickie
30-09-07, 15:04
sic6sic,
Why weren't these 3 games in your earlier list? Do you select certain
leagues only?
sic6sic
30-09-07, 15:49
sic6sic,
Why weren't these 3 games in your earlier list? Do you select certain
leagues only?
well, i printed the list on expekt last friday, and i noticed that a lot of
games were not included yet when i was calculating last night.
interbastian
30-09-07, 15:49
For San Lorenzo - Argentions Juniors i got the same values
but:
AIK vs. Gais (Under 2.5 goals) (it's a clear under, but i got different
values)
1.82 - 2.27 - 1.82 - 2.27 - 2.05

same values
IFK Göteborg vs. Hammarby (Under 2.5 goals) (i got only a 3/5)2,09 -
2,82 - 2,36 - 2,55 - 2,45
Is it a mistake in my calculations or in yours ?

If it is mine, then i need to check my excel formulas again. Idea
Can you look it up please ?
My mistake. AIK - Gais, got the same values as you but when I wrote in
this thread I accidentally miss wrote.
As you rightly pointed out it's still 5/5 on under.
1.82 - 2.27 - 1.82 - 2.27 - 2.05
In IFK Göteborg - Hammarby my mistake was severer as I missed to

calculate a match, namely Helsingborgs IF - Hammarby which ended 4-2
a result that pushes a couple of values to over 2.5.
Still I don't get the same values as you on this one but it's no more a 5/5
and therefore no bet.
Thank you for pointing this out.
If you are curious here are my reviewed calculations:
IFK Göteborg vs. Hammarby (No bet)
2.17 - 2.54 - 2.17 - 2.54 - 2.35
I enter match results and count the teams scored and conceded goals and
average by hand. Haven't figured out how to do it with excel yet. Perhaps
that's why there was a mistakes.
sic6sic
30-09-07, 15:52
home avg = 2.18

away avg = 2.54
minimum = 2.18
maximum 2.54
overall avg = 2.36
i'll check them asap.

I do all the calculations in excel, with will round up a numer to 2 decimal
numbers (00.00) but when working with different cells, it always uses the
full value (with more decimal numbers) so the problem isn't of that
category
interbastian
30-09-07, 15:54
yuvalfra wrote P.S. please remember during calculation you must include
all decimel values, meaning you cannot replace 2.545454 with 2.54 during
Thanks for pointing this out. I read this after I posted my previous
comments.
sic6sic
30-09-07, 17:12
home avg = 2.18

away avg = 2.54
minimum = 2.18
maximum 2.54
overall avg = 2.36
I got it right now ... just mistyped the scores i suppose, not very awake
atm :D
btw: it's looking good again ...
yuvalfra
30-09-07, 20:10
Guys, I don't understand why you need to enter the scores to find
averages.
Please use http://www.soccerway.com for stats, for home and away.
P.S. looks like a 5/7 - awesome! :D
Bosnian1978
30-09-07, 20:50
Hi yuvalfra,
can you tell me what are your main reasons when you decide about
over/unders ? Also how you select games wich you will betting on
over/under??
thank you..
yuvalfra
30-09-07, 20:59
Hi yuvalfra,
can you tell me what are your main reasons when you decide about
over/unders ? Also how you select games wich you will betting on
over/under??
thank you..
Uhhh, please read the first post in this thread, it's all layed out there.
EmrahGS
30-09-07, 21:25
I´m back again, and I started to play some "just started" leagues.
San Lorenzo v Argentinos Jrs

OVER 2.5 @ 1,85
WON :D
home 2,3 2,3 4,5

away 1,5 1,3 2,8
average: 3,6
maximum 2,3 2,3 4,5

minimum 1,3 1,5 2,8
average: 3,6
Cruzeiro v Figueirense
OVER 2.5 @ 1,45
WON :D
home 2,6 1,7 4,3

away 1,1 2,1 3,2
average: 3,8
maximum 2,6 1,7 4,3

minimum 2,1 1,1 3,2
average: 3,8
America v Cruz Azul

OVER 2.5 @ 1,80
WON :D
home 3,3 1,0 4,3

away 1,3 1,8 3,0
average: 3,6
maximum 3,3 1,3 4,5

minimum 1,8 1,0 2,8
average: 3,6
14W 5L
Bank: 151 (+51%)
sic6sic
30-09-07, 21:43
I´m back again, and I started to play some "just started" leagues.
San Lorenzo v Argentinos Jrs

OVER 2.5 @ 1,85
home 2,3 2,3 4,5

away 1,5 1,3 2,8
average: 3,6
maximum 2,3 2,3 4,5

minimum 1,3 1,5 2,8
average: 3,6
Cruzeiro v Figueirense
OVER 2.5 @ 1,45
home 2,6 1,7 4,3

away 1,1 2,1 3,2
average: 3,8
maximum 2,6 1,7 4,3

minimum 2,1 1,1 3,2
average: 3,8
America v Cruz Azul

OVER 2.5 @ 1,80
home 3,3 1,0 4,3

away 1,3 1,8 3,0
average: 3,6
maximum 3,3 1,3 4,5

minimum 1,8 1,0 2,8
average: 3,6
I'm playing two of those matches too, but your odds at the Cruzeiro
match are too low.
If you do it by yuvalfra's system, you should take a minimum odd of 1.6.
My last picks for today:
San Lorenzo - Argentions Jrs. (Over 2,5) @ 1,85 :D

2,75 - 4,50 - 4,50 - 2,75 - 3,63
America - Cruz Azul (Over 2,5) @ 1,85 :D

2,75 - 4,50 - 4,25 - 3,00 - 3,63
Status:

Current bank: 251.30 Units (25.65% Profit)
sic6sic
30-09-07, 21:44
averages.
P.S. looks like a 5/7 - awesome! :D
lol, that's what i mean :oops:

very sorry for that, it's just not my day :(
But the results of todays betting activity are smt else :) i like :D
interbastian
01-10-07, 00:02
Seven out of ten won tonight between us sic6sic .
5/7 by you and 2/3 by me.
Very nice indeed!!!
averages.
That simplifies things, thanks yuvalfra.
sic6sic
01-10-07, 00:04
Seven out of ten won tonight between us sic6sic .
5/7 by you and 2/3 by me.
Very nice indeed!!!
Indeed, let us keep up the good work !

Keep eachother on target, not doin' things we shouldn't do and always
and really always stick to yuvalfra's masterpiece :D
I'm now putting my statistics up to date (for later review), after that i'll
check the coming games.
interbastian
01-10-07, 00:09
It can get even better. I'm not counting your last pick, sic6sic and
EmrahGS, America - Cruz Azul (Over 2,5) which will be payed later
tonight.
Good luck!
sic6sic
01-10-07, 00:12
tonight.
Good luck!
thanks man! Good work from your side too :D !

Any interesting odds/bets for the new week ?
I think we better skip the whole European leagues (CL - UC) in every
stadium, it's not as reliable as a national league.
Yuvalfra, any :idea: idea/suggestion?
sic6sic
01-10-07, 00:44
as i said, i was updating my stats, now i've finished, and have some news.
In fact, it are all things that yuvalfra already said:
> I played 30 picks so far, 20W, 10L

> The first 2 days, i picked 7 "bad games", why bad ? They haven't played
8+ games in their leagues + they were not all 5/5's. This resulted in 3W
and 4L of these 7 games.
> If i would not count these games in, i would have had an accuracy of
73.91%, and logically a higher bankroll
Conclusion, which yuvalfra has already said a dozen times in this thread
:oops:
Only play leagues in which they have played 8+ games, i work with the
10+ rule he said earlier AND always have the 5 criteria fulfilled.
I know it's about 100 times explained in this thread before, but now i see
the (still small, but there are) results, i know why yuvalfra made this rule.
yuvalfra
01-10-07, 00:50
tonight.
Good luck!
thanks man! Good work from your side too :D !

Any interesting odds/bets for the new week ?
I think we better skip the whole European leagues (CL - UC) in every
stadium, it's not as reliable as a national league.
Yuvalfra, any :idea: idea/suggestion?
The system does not work on cup games. That includes CL. :idea:
sic6sic
01-10-07, 01:48
New picks:
FC Lahti - TPS Turku (Over 2,5) @ 1.69 :D

2,80 - 3,70 - 3,70 - 2,80 - 3,25
Sandeford - Start (Over 2,5) @ 1.60 :D

3,12 - 3,93 - 3,55 - 3,50 - 3,52
Status:

interbastian
01-10-07, 13:13
sic6sic wrote
New picks:
FC Lahti - TPS Turku (Over 2,5) @ 1.69

2,80 - 3,70 - 3,70 - 2,80 - 3,25
Sandeford - Start (Over 2,5) @ 1.60

3,12 - 3,93 - 3,55 - 3,50 - 3,52
Orgryte IS - Landskrona (Under 2,5) @ 1.87

1,83 - 2,17 - 2,08 - 1,92 - 2,00
Man you're fast!
You have already picked out today's games and one for tomorrow too. Not
bad!
If I'm to have any chance of beating you I will have to post bets a few
day's ahead of them being played. Before odds are set. ;)
Of course this is a joke as this is no competition.

It doesn't matter who posts a pick first.
What does matter is that we all help each other. This should be a
collective effort of both giving and taking.
So to all you that read this please take a little time to help by re-checking
values for picks posted in this thread.
Just as sic6sic and yuvafra already generously do.
Most of the time we get it right but sometimes a little error sneaks in and
can lead to wrong conclusions.
Sometimes different findings are of pure academic interest. As in

Sandeford - Start (Over 2,5) @ 1.60 I came to the following values
3.55 - 3.5 - 3.12 - 3. 93 - 3.53
Still it's clearly 5/5 over 2.5 so the bet is on.
sic6sic
01-10-07, 14:37
Man you're fast!
You have already picked out today's games and one for tomorrow too. Not
bad!
If I'm to have any chance of beating you I will have to post bets a few
day's ahead of them being played. Before odds are set. ;)
Of course this is a joke as this is no competition.

It doesn't matter who posts a pick first.
What does matter is that we all help each other. This should be a
collective effort of both giving and taking.
So to all you that read this please take a little time to help by re-checking
values for picks posted in this thread.
Just as sic6sic and yuvafra already generously do.
Most of the time we get it right but sometimes a little error sneaks in and
can lead to wrong conclusions.
Sometimes different findings are of pure academic interest. As in

Sandeford - Start (Over 2,5) @ 1.60 I came to the following values
3.55 - 3.5 - 3.12 - 3. 93 - 3.53
Still it's clearly 5/5 over 2.5 so the bet is on.
Indeed interbastian! We should help, advise and correct eachother as

much as possible. It's all about not that difficult math, equations, but
we've all seen in the last posts that errors do occur. So correction is
needed!
For the Sandeford - Start pick, don't we have the same values?
Only difference i see is the 3.53 in the MIN/MAX avg, i suppose this has
more to do with rounding the digits than entering the wrong values.
Something else, do you already have a working excell sheet ? Otherwise i

could easily send you mine.
For today picks, it's all, nothing more to add, no other 5/5 and 10+
games. Perhaps i'll add some tomorrows games ... i still have to check the
lower English and French leagues, which play tomorrow.
I'll keep in touch ;)
yuvalfra
01-10-07, 16:13
I don't understand why there should be any mistakes? Except for a print
typo every now and then we should all conclude the same calculation.
If anyone is missing an Excel file please contact me and I will hook

everyone up.
I use http://www.soccerway.com for the stats.
Still waiting for the major leagues to become playable, however sic6sic's
success with the lower leagues is quite impressive. Keep on winning!
EmrahGS
01-10-07, 16:33
In my view this strategy proved it´s working. I will not post my bets
anymore, as sic6sic is already doing that. My todays bets were the same
as his.
After 19 matches:
14 wons
5 losses
and a bank of +51% is enough for me to say that this is working :D
Thanks again yuvalfra
sic6sic
01-10-07, 16:35
I don't understand why there should be any mistakes? Except for a print
typo every now and then we should all conclude the same calculation.

everyone up.
I use http://www.soccerway.com for the stats.
Still waiting for the major leagues to become playable, however sic6sic's
success with the lower leagues is quite impressive. Keep on winning!
I think that is what we both meant yuvalfra, typo mistakes. But it would
be stupid to lose a bet due to a typing mistakes. So it's good that we
correct eachother.
Thanks for the complements yuvalfra, i hope i can continue it long
enough.
Azure
01-10-07, 17:51
No, it's simply another kind of sequence. I had to look twice, too, but the
numbers are absolutely identical....
It depends if you post "min - max - home - away" or "home - away - min
- max" :)
sic6sic
01-10-07, 21:11
No, it's simply another kind of sequence. I had to look twice, too, but the
numbers are absolutely identical....
It depends if you post "min - max - home - away" or "home - away - min
- max" :)
Ahhhh, it was that that you meant.

I'm sorry for the different notation :oops: i just made my excel file up like
that and now it's too mush work to turn it all around again.
Anyway, today matches were PERFECT :D i love this little nifty system :)
32% profit in less then a week (5 days in fact), it's not bad at all !!!
yuvalfra
01-10-07, 21:11
New picks:
FC Lahti - TPS Turku (Over 2,5) @ 1.69

2,80 - 3,70 - 3,70 - 2,80 - 3,25
Sandeford - Start (Over 2,5) @ 1.60

3,12 - 3,93 - 3,55 - 3,50 - 3,52
Orgryte IS - Landskrona (Under 2,5) @ 1.87

1,83 - 2,17 - 2,08 - 1,92 - 2,00
Status:
Current picks: 0W - 0L - 3O (00.00 % Accuracy)
Total: 21W - 10L - 3O (67.74 % Accuracy)

First two bets are OK. But for some reason I can't find the third match
anywhere?
yuvalfra
01-10-07, 21:14
i love this little nifty system :)
Well when I tried the system 3 years ago after just a few days my bank
has doubled! But I was staking 10% of my bank PER BET. Which is not
very responsible but the profit was damn nice :)
sic6sic
01-10-07, 21:14
First two bets are OK. But for some reason I can't find the third match
anywhere?
This game will be played tomorrow. I added it already, if other people

would like to take the bet, they could do it soon enough to get higher
odds. Anyway, if the internet connection is back ok, i will check some
more games, i'll let you guys know.
sic6sic
01-10-07, 21:20
In my view this strategy proved it´s working. I will not post my bets
anymore, as sic6sic is already doing that. My todays bets were the same
as his.
After 19 matches:
14 wons
5 losses
and a bank of +51% is enough for me to say that this is working :D
Thanks again yuvalfra
Very nice record indeed, 74% accuracy.

Keep up the good work!
sic6sic
01-10-07, 21:27
i love this little nifty system :)
Well when I tried the system 3 years ago after just a few days my bank
has doubled! But I was staking 10% of my bank PER BET. Which is not
very responsible but the profit was damn nice :)
That is, indeed, very very nice :)

But in time, i'm planning to increase the stake a bit, but not as much as
you :o
I think i'm about 50-60 EUR away from withdrawing my bonus. When i
can do this (i suppose this will be after the weekend), i withdraw
everything, and start all over on betfair. Finally better odds :)
I'm planning to do a linear increase of my stakes along with the profit i
got. I'm not completely sure how and when, but something like that it will
be. So, my "new round" will be started after the weekend. Now hoping for
some good picks to get an accuracy above 80%, LOL :D , no, just kiddin'
interbastian
01-10-07, 22:18
Congratulations on another successful betting day sic6sic!
yuvalfra

everyone up.
sic6sic

Yes please, to both of you, I appreciate it!
Is it possible to attach it to a massage sent through this site message

service. Or do you need my email address?
yuvalfra
01-10-07, 22:36
I need an email address.
sic6sic
01-10-07, 22:42
Congratulations on another successful betting day sic6sic!
yuvalfra

everyone up.
sic6sic

Yes please, to both of you, I appreciate it!

Thank you interbastian!

If you still need the excell file, pm me your e-mail adress.
interbastian
01-10-07, 22:48
Here are some picks from the Argentina Apertura. 2-4 October
All odds are from interwetten but if you wait a little you will probably get
better odds at betfair.
I post them now just to get ahead of sic6sic for once. ;)
Independiente vs. Gimnasia Jujuy over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.7

3.99 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 3.99 - 3.5
Argentinos Juniors vs. River Plate over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.7
2.66 - 2.83 - 2.66 - 2.83 - 2.75
San Martín de San Juan vs. Arsenal under 2.5 goals. Odds 1.6
2.4 - 2.0 - 2.0 - 2.4 - 2.2
Tigre vs. Racing over 2.4 goals. Odds 1.9

3.0 - 3.0 - 2.93 - 3.07 - 3.0
sic6sic
01-10-07, 22:57
Here are some picks from the Argentina Apertura. 2-4 October
All odds are from interwetten but if you wait a little you will probably get
better odds at betfair.
I post them now just to get ahead of sic6sic for once. ;)
Independiente vs. Gimnasia Jujuy over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.7

3.99 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 3.99 - 3.5
Argentinos Juniors vs. River Plate over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.7
2.66 - 2.83 - 2.66 - 2.83 - 2.75
San Martín de San Juan vs. Arsenal under 2.5 goals. Odds 1.6
2.4 - 2.0 - 2.0 - 2.4 - 2.2
Tigre vs. Racing over 2.4 goals. Odds 1.9

3.0 - 3.0 - 2.93 - 3.07 - 3.0
Thanks a lot. I'm not checking these values as i'm on low-speed internet
connection and it takes me ages to do that.
Sadly, i don't find these games at expekt (yet).
interbastian
01-10-07, 23:19
Don't worry mate, you have done heaps already. Good on ya!
I'm quite certain that somebody else reading this in the spirit of
cooperation will alert us if there is something to correct or add or
withdraw.
Cheers!
MNC
01-10-07, 23:43
Don't worry mate, you have done heaps already. Good on ya!
I'm quite certain that somebody else reading this in the spirit of
cooperation will alert us if there is something to correct or add or
withdraw.
Cheers!
Just one thing : be carefull with Argentinos - River.

Both had hard games yesterday (River had another long battle last
Thursday) and could feel tired. The game is played in Argentinos stadium,
a very small field, and Argentinos defenders are very tall so it won't be
that easy to River to score. It could be OVER, but be carefull.
BTW, great system :) , i followed today's picks. :D
sic6sic
02-10-07, 00:22
I did some research, i've found 2 more games for tomorrow.
I skip the French 2nd, English One, Two and Conference due to the fact
that these are not 10+ games plus all the games have odds between 1.60
and 1.65, so there's not that much value in it.
@ interbastian: i got the same values for those 4 games. Shitty i can't bet
on the games, expekt is only offering them as 1X2, what a bookie :(
All in all, the total list for tomorrow is (i put the one i picked yesterday in
it too):
Orgryte IS - Landskrona (Under 2,5) @ 1.87 :(

1,83 - 2,17 - 2,08 - 1,92 - 2,00
Aldershot Town - Exeter City (Over 2,5) @ 1.75 :(

3,00 -
Bettingadvice forum > Betting aid / strategy > Betting strategy records > My Under/Over
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bad boy
02-10-07, 15:35
1000 REPLIES
:D :D :D
cmf
02-10-07, 16:27
For today I found these to be interesting:
Chateauroux v Ajaccio 2.5 2 2.5 1 1.75

Le Havre v Chamois Niortais 2 1.5 2.25 1.5 1.875
Reims v Guingamp 2 2 2 1.75 1.875
Sedan v Angers 2 1.75 2 1.75 1.875
Burnley v Ipswich Town 3 3.83 3.83 2.16 3

Hull v Charlton 3.5 2.75 3.5 2.5 3
Plymouth v Crystal Palace 2 2 2.25 2 2.125
Watford v Sheffield Wed 2.5 2.75 3 2.5 2.75
Bristol Rovers v Southend 3.5 4.25 4.25 2.75 3.5

Doncaster v Walsall 1.75 1.5 2.25 1.5 1.875
Millwall v Northampton 2.5 3.25 3.25 2.5 2.875
Swansea v Swindon 1.5 1.75 2.25 1.5 1.875
Tranmere v Crewe 3 3 3 2.75 2.875
Bradford City v Accrington Stanley 1.75 2.25 2.25 1.5 1.875

Mansfield v Milton Keynes Dons 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Wrexham v Chesterfield 1.75 2 2.5 1.75 2.125
yuvalfra
02-10-07, 16:39
cmf, your picks aren't valid. We are using stats of leagues that have a minimum of 10 games
played already.
In 2-3 weeks we'll be able to apply the system on most major leagues. Please be patient ;)
cmf
02-10-07, 16:48
You're probably right. Still, I'd like to try this out. Given the fact that in their respective
championships these teams already played 8 games I might not be off by too much in my
assumptions.
I checked H2h for all these games and now I'm left with these:

Sedan v Angers 2 1.75 2 1.75 1.875
I figure they are worth a shot...
Azure
02-10-07, 18:00
played already.
Besides, I think there's sth not ok with your numbers again, cmf.
What's your sequence of posting? ("home-away-min-max-overall" or "min-max-home-away-
overall" or sth else?)
Watford-SheffieldWed additionally doesn't fit because it's a borderline case (2,50 twice).
sic6sic
02-10-07, 18:30
You're probably right. Still, I'd like to try this out. Given the fact that in their respective
championships these teams already played 8 games I might not be off by too much in my
assumptions.
I checked H2h for all these games and now I'm left with these:

Sedan v Angers 2 1.75 2 1.75 1.875
I figure they are worth a shot...
they are 8+ games so they can be played, but i only play the 10+ ones, so i don't touch these
one (as i said in previous posts). For the whole english games today, only the conference league
fits in the strategy.
cmf
02-10-07, 20:28
played already.
It's home-away-min-max-overall, if I remember correctly. I wrote a script to do the math,

actually :)
yuvalfra
02-10-07, 20:55
played already.
It's home-away-min-max-overall, if I remember correctly. I wrote a script to do the math,

actually :)
What sort of script?
sic6sic
02-10-07, 22:48
booohaaaa, what a bad day :o
for those who picked the french league, what a day :D

4 times 0-0, 2 times 1-1, only 2 overs.
When i move my money to betfair after the weekend, i would like to start all over, with different
stakes:
I start, again, with a starting bank of 200 Units, the initial stake is 11 Units. After every
bankraise of 50 Units (or a profit-change of + or - 25%) i raise/lower my stake with 3 units. So
first 11, then 14, 17, 20, and so on.
It's not that aggresive, but i hope to get some more money out of it by sligthly increasing the
stakes. But when things go very bad (3-4-5 losses after eachother) i still will have enough of my
bank left, and uses the appropiate (and lower) stake again.
I hope this is not against yuvalfra's rules. I didn't found anything specific about stakes in this
strategy, so if he allows me to do this, i'll start with it after the weekend.
Whatever, this is just on paper, i'll see how things work out ...
New picks:
LKS Lomza - Wisla Plock (Over 2.5) @ 1,8

3,17 - 3,43 - 3,17 - 3,43 - 3,30
Atlantis FC Helsinki - PK 35 Helsinki (Over 2.5) @ 1,8

2,58 - 3,05 - 2,64 - 3,00 - 2,82
Status:
Current picks: 0W - 0L - 2O (00.00 % Accuracy)
Total: 23W - 13L - 3O (63.89 % Accuracy)

interbastian
02-10-07, 22:55
word!
What an awful day! 4/4 lost!
sic6sic
02-10-07, 23:03
word!
What an awful day! 4/4 lost!
no big deal, we'll beat those bookies anyway
interbastian
03-10-07, 00:14
sic6sic wrote:
no big deal, we'll beat those bookies anyway
Yes I believe we can make a profit out of this in the long run too. We have just started.
I have a pick for tomorrow

Warta Poznan vs. Znicz Pruszkow Under odds 1.8
2.42 - 2.28 - 2.42 - 2.28 - 2.35
zidane10
03-10-07, 00:23
my belief is that this will just get better as they go along with their games. more games should
mean increase in stats and percentage, right? so if this strategy is working and we believe in it,
we should not ever get 4/4 loss by, lets say november. I believe in this, and im gonna invest a
whole lot more in 4-5 weeks when all the big leages get more "stats secure" as i like to call it
:oops: LOL.
Lets get those books!!
and thanks Sic6Sic for the help mate!
yuvalfra
03-10-07, 11:53
Bad days will always come....
That's why I said all that matters is hit-percentage. If we have a positive percentag overall -->
PROFIT!
P.S. sic6sic, you can use whatever staking plan you wish. I didn't determine a specific method.
Personally I prefer flat stakes. I intend to punt around 3% of my bank per bet when I begin.
Good luck.
sic6sic
03-10-07, 12:32
my belief is that this will just get better as they go along with their games. more games should
mean increase in stats and percentage, right? so if this strategy is working and we believe in it,
we should not ever get 4/4 loss by, lets say november. I believe in this, and im gonna invest a
whole lot more in 4-5 weeks when all the big leages get more "stats secure" as i like to call it
:oops: LOL.
Lets get those books!!
and thanks Sic6Sic for the help mate!
indeed, that is totally true, the more games, the "finer" the stats. But we should never forget it
is still sport, nothing is certain, suprises alwys happen. But we can, in the next weeks, lower our
losses i think.
Is the excell file working fine ?
skatalites
03-10-07, 14:02
Can anybody tell me what is the percent of winnings for the specific system?
If the win ratio is 60% then only games o/u above 1.67 are worth of playing.
For example at 10 games for 1,67 odds and stake 100
we wil won 6 and lose 4
so we have 6x67=402 minus 400=2 points gain.
Of course if you play at betfair you must take the 5% of your winnings
so the correct odds that we must play the system is around 1,71-1,72.
Also i think that their are certain leagues that this system works nicely.
for example at confernce and austria max is not wise to play it
cause the stats from 4 years back show that o/u is 50-50,
so i think that its better to apply it at leagues with different o/u stats (4 years stats i think is
ok),cause this system takes in considiration the curent form of the teams but not what
happened to the leagues from 4 years back.
In different o/u stats say 60% under and 40% over to the last 4 years
you get very good bankers and also you have a deadly combination of
current form and league behavior.
sic6sic
03-10-07, 17:20
I added some more games for today (and tonight), couldn't post it sooner as the BA-server was
down several times.
Thanks interbastian for that game, it slipped thru (or perhaps typo mistake) so i didn't see it.
Here is the full list:
LKS Lomza - Wisla Plock (Over 2.5) @ 1.8 :D

3,17 - 3,43 - 3,17 - 3,43 - 3,30
Atlantis FC Helsinki - PK 35 Helsinki (Over 2.5) @ 1.8 :(

2,58 - 3,05 - 2,64 - 3,00 - 2,82
Tigre - Racing Club (Over 2.5) @ 1.9 :D

2,93 - 3,07 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00
Argentinos Jrs - River Plate (Over 2.5) @ 1.7 :D

2,67 - 2,83 - 2,67 - 2,83 - 2,75
Palmeiras - Nautico (Over 2.5) @ 1.6 :D

2,62 - 3,71 - 2,62 - 3,71 - 3,16
Sport - Goias (Over 2.5) @ 1.7 :D

2,64 - 3,64 - 3,64 - 2,64 - 3,14
Vasco - Juventude (Over 2.5) @ 1.6 :(

3,15 - 3,54 - 3,15 - 3,54 - 3,35
Atletico-PR - Botafogo (Over2.5) 1.65 :(

2,62 - 3,14 - 2,62 - 3,14 - 2,88
Club America - Pachuca (Over 2.5) @ 1.7 :(

2,80 - 4,80 - 4,20 - 3,40 - 3,80
Primorje Ajdovscina - ND Gorica (Under 2.5) @ 1.85 :(

2,00 - 2,40 - 2,20 - 2,20 - 2,20
Status:

EDIT: Club America - Pachuca is a cup-match, so i shouldn't have taken it. I am very sorry
:oops:
yuvalfra
03-10-07, 17:56
Can anybody tell me what is the percent of winnings for the specific system?
If the win ratio is 60% then only games o/u above 1.67 are worth of playing.
For example at 10 games for 1,67 odds and stake 100
we wil won 6 and lose 4
so we have 6x67=402 minus 400=2 points gain.

Of course if you play at betfair you must take the 5% of your winnings
so the correct odds that we must play the system is around 1,71-1,72.
Also i think that their are certain leagues that this system works nicely.
for example at confernce and austria max is not wise to play it
cause the stats from 4 years back show that o/u is 50-50,
so i think that its better to apply it at leagues with different o/u stats (4 years stats i think is
ok),cause this system takes in considiration the curent form of the teams but not what
happened to the leagues from 4 years back.
In different o/u stats say 60% under and 40% over to the last 4 years
you get very good bankers and also you have a deadly combination of
current form and league behavior.
I believe 60% is a good pecentage overall. If you consider the average odd to be around 1.80
(using Betfair). You need to remember you might win once 1.60 and once 2.00, the average will
remain 1.80. Even an average of 1.70-1.75 is OK.
Azure
03-10-07, 18:37
It's home-away-min-max-overall, if I remember correctly. Can't be - there's definitely sth wrong
- look at the numbers you posted: if the sequence is the one you mentioned, min would be
larger than max.... and the rest is not logical, too.
skatalites
03-10-07, 22:30
remain 1.80. Even an average of 1.70-1.75 is OK.[/quote]d
ok lets say the league stats are 50% over and 50% under
we win 5 games and lose 5 games hypothetically
we play at odds 1,95
we win 5x1,95x1000 points=4750 and lose 5x1000=1000 points
so we are -250 points but if the league behaviour is 60 over and 40 under
we have 6x1,95x 1000=5700-4000=1700 profit.
and if we win 4 and lose 6 we lose -6000+5400=-600
CAUSE probably the 4 we win will be at 2,35
so the stats told us that we win more that we lose instaed of sure losing
yeah.
why?because the league behaviour in our lifetime will be 60-40 if they play forever (but we cant
never live for ever) it will come back to 50-50 so the league percent is the definition of stat .
why the system is a failure to austrian max bundesliga,and english campionship,and blue square
premiere (conference) and many more leagues?
cause the league stats are 50-50 IN LONG TERM.
yuvalfra
03-10-07, 23:24
Sorry skatalites, you're wrong.
It's not 50-50 and I think the success of the system on the long run proves that.
sic6sic
03-10-07, 23:35
Sorry skatalites, you're wrong.
It's not 50-50 and I think the success of the system on the long run proves that.
indeed, got the same feeling over this system.

It's all very relative ... what you say about english conference is not true, i'm having good picks
on it last weeks. But who says it's gonna last forever ? No one, maybe it just stops working in a
week, strange things happen, weird results, big changes in the table. It's sport, everythings
possible.
Yuvalfra just did an attempt (which was/is very succesfull) to use the stats in a good way, but
nobody will ever say this system is perfect, as statistics aren't perfect, just numbers, numbers
which are a representation of 11 players on the field, the bench, the staff, wheather,
home/away, ...
So many parameters are responsible for the outcome of a game, we use those digits to make
our picks. Sure we will lose sometimes, sure it will be 3-4-5 losses in a row, but this topic has
proven that there is a constant rate of 60% accuracy in the system. Not bad at all if you ask
me.
We could discuss about this more, make Poisson or Gauss distributions over it, but hey, i'm just
having fun, making profit, fkn up those bookies, thats what i like :)
SirTomDobby
04-10-07, 00:47
Vasco da Gama - Juventude /Brasil/ over 2,5

Universidad Catolica - Audax Italiano /Chile/ over 2,5
Stats so far:
8 Picks total
7 won (87,5%)
1 lost (12,5%)
sic6sic
04-10-07, 00:48

Stats so far:
8 Picks total
7 won (87,5%)
1 lost (12,5%)
Nice percentage you got there SirTomDobby. Still, only 8 games played, but a very nice percent
!!! Way to go !
SirTomDobby
04-10-07, 01:03

Stats so far:
8 Picks total
7 won (87,5%)
1 lost (12,5%)
Nice percentage you got there SirTomDobby. Still, only 8 games played, but a very nice percent
!!! Way to go !
Thanks mate. I´m a bit busy with the army in the moment which makes it impossible for me to
post more picks or just even figure out more games.
But anyway. ;)
insouciant
04-10-07, 04:41
remain 1.80. Even an average of 1.70-1.75 is OK.d
ok lets say the league stats are 50% over and 50% under
we win 5 games and lose 5 games hypothetically
we play at odds 1,95
we win 5x1,95x1000 points=4750 and lose 5x1000=1000 points
so we are -250 points but if the league behaviour is 60 over and 40 under
we have 6x1,95x 1000=5700-4000=1700 profit.
and if we win 4 and lose 6 we lose -6000+5400=-600
CAUSE probably the 4 we win will be at 2,35
so the stats told us that we win more that we lose instaed of sure losing
yeah.
why?because the league behaviour in our lifetime will be 60-40 if they play forever (but we cant
never live for ever) it will come back to 50-50 so the league percent is the definition of stat .
why the system is a failure to austrian max bundesliga,and english campionship,and blue square
premiere (conference) and many more leagues?
cause the league stats are 50-50 IN LONG TERM.[/quote]
Hi there.
I see that you've only recently started to post, so welcome to the boards :D
Now, simply out of curiosity, have you actually read the first page of this thread ?
If you have, you will have noticed that this is not about 'blindly' backing u/o at average odds of
1.67 !
In Yuvalfra's system, a number of criterion need to be met before a slection is considered to be

a bet.
In the example that you have posted above, you are assuming an average odd of 1.95, you also
state that we need to be looking at leagues which have a history of ... say a 60/40 over/under
ratio, now without wishing to appear 'funny', do you know of any leagues which perform
regularly at 60/40 which bookies are happy to offer odds of 1.95 upon ?
If you do... I'd like to hear of them. ;)

yuvalfra
04-10-07, 05:27
sic6sic, results today were OK, if I'm not mistaken 5/9 however your bet on CF America -
Pachuca isn't valid - it's a cup game mate!
yuvalfra
04-10-07, 05:33

Stats so far:
8 Picks total
7 won (87,5%)
1 lost (12,5%)
How come you use selective picks? And if you do how do you decide which matches to pick?
Certain margines?
ax13
04-10-07, 09:18
Hi, I'm also one of the beneficiaries of this system.
Today I'm taking
China league: Tianjin v Shandong Under 2.5

French 2: Nantes v Geougnon Over 2.5 (haven't reach requirements of at least 10 games)
Brazil 1: Figueriense v Internacional Over 2.5
Busy at work thus no time to copy down the exact statistics. But it fits the requirement if i'm not
wrong. Goodluck to all!
skatalites
04-10-07, 10:14
you dont get my meaning.
the system takes in consideration the current form of teams
according to the goals scored and goals against home and away.
This is very good indeed.
So one factor is form according to stats.
the stats are generated from this year team behaviour on goal scoring
and thats ok.
But in the long-long run say 4-5 years played the sucsess ratio will fall.
In the begining you double your bank in no time but after that
you had a bad run and the wininigs get more stable.
Lets say you have a 60% under and 40% over league
that means that we have more unders in the league and less over
so the mainly picks you will got by the system will be under cause its an under league
correct?wrong
the bookies are generating odds by 3- 4 years stats to find the starting odds so in this situation
they will offer under 1,6 over 2,4.
Now according to the system we have our team at an avg 3,05

we play it over but we get 2,4 (banker)
what i try to say is that no 50-50 leagues are better to apply this sytem
cause you get better and better odds that are definetely deserved it
because i am tired writing down my thoughts i will start sending picks

according to league behavior over the last 1200 games
and the i will apply on that leagues the system to see if i can increase the succses rate .
main rules
NO ODDS LESS THAN 1,71 OR THE AVERAGE OF GAMES PLAYED PER DAY
10 GAMES MUST HAVE BEEN PLAYED
LEAGUE BEHAVIOR MUST BE 55-45 OR 60-40 OVER THE LAST 1200 GAMES
BANK 15000
4% STAKE=600
AFTER I GOT IF I DO 10 TIMES MY ORIGINAL STAKE I WILL GO FOR 6%

OF MY STARTING BANK.
SirTomDobby
04-10-07, 10:26

Stats so far:
8 Picks total
7 won (87,5%)
1 lost (12,5%)
How come you use selective picks? And if you do how do you decide which matches to pick?
Certain margines?
as i said a few pages before, i follow your 5/5 strategy. ;)
SirTomDobby
04-10-07, 10:28
Vasco da Gama - Juventude /Brasil/ over 2,5 :(

Universidad Catolica - Audax Italiano /Chile/ over 2,5 :)
Stats so far:
10 Picks total
8 won (80%)
2 lost (20%)
Azure
04-10-07, 10:41
PROFIT!
Not if odds are too low.

Today I'm taking
Hello, ax13!
Two of the three matches don't fit:
Nantes - Gueugnon 3,75 - 3,25 - 3,25 - 3,75 - 3,50 =5/5 over, but -as you said- only 4
matches played (H/A)
Tianjin - Shandong 1,50 - 2,42 - 1,08 - 2,83 - 1,96 =4/5 under
@skatalites: I don't think that bookies only use past years stats to produce their odds ignoring
the current performance of teams. If you have two "over-teams" meeting in an "under-league",
the odds will be set mainly according to their form and not the historical league-ratio.
@SirTomDobby: Didn't you limit the plays at those that are >3,0 overall?
sic6sic
04-10-07, 11:09
sic6sic, results today were OK, if I'm not mistaken 5/9 however your bet on CF America -
Pachuca isn't valid - it's a cup game mate!
I know, i just saw it last evening, too late, the bet was already placed :(
BTW: Brasilian games were a pain, only 3/7 overs, boeeeaaaa :( :o
ax13
04-10-07, 11:24
Hello, ax13!
oops my bad. add one more match.
swiss: lugano vs FC wil Over 2.5
interbastian
04-10-07, 12:35
swiss: lugano vs FC wil Over 2.5
That's right ax13! With the following values according to my calculations:

3.16 - 3.0 - 2.86 - 3.3 - 3.08
Yesterday was a far better day for me than Tuesday. Got the following results:
Independiente vs. Gimnasia Jujuy Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.7 Won
Argentinos Juniors vs. River Plate Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.7 Won
San Martín de San Juan vs. Arsenal Under 2.5 goals. Odds 1.6 Won
Tigre vs. Racing Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.9 Won
Palmeiras vs. Nautico Over 2.5 Odds 1.6 Won
Sport vs. Goias Over 2.5 Odds 1.7 Won
Vasco - Juventude Over 2.5 Odds 1.6 Lost
Atletico-PR - Botafogo Over2.5 Odds 1.65 Lost
6/8 Won!
I found a pick in Poland I couldn't play because none of my bookies didn't offer any under/over
bets on it. There were other picks posted by sic6sic that I could not bet on because of the same
reason.
I suppose no bookie offers all the over/under bets for all the leagues. Of those I know,
interwetten offers the most under/over odds for smaller leagues.
What are your experience in this matter guys?
SirTomDobby
04-10-07, 12:57
PROFIT!
Not if odds are too low.

Today I'm taking
Hello, ax13!
@skatalites: I don't think that bookies only use past years stats to produce their odds ignoring
the current performance of teams. If you have two "over-teams" meeting in an "under-league",
the odds will be set mainly according to their form and not the historical league-ratio.
@SirTomDobby: Didn't you limit the plays at those that are >3,0 overall?
At first, yes, but now i changed my strategy to the point, that i need over 3,0 in all the things
and not just the avg. ;)
SirTomDobby
04-10-07, 13:10
FC Nantes - FC Gueugnon over 2,5

AC Lugano - FC Wil over 2,5
Stats so far:
10 Picks total
8 won (80%)
2 lost (20%)
Monstervalue at nantes game. 1,9 for over 2,5 is really great and just one score can stop this...
2:0 for nantes but i believe that we ll see many goals. first against last.... ;)
skatalites
04-10-07, 13:44
FK Austria Amateurs v Schwadorf - Over
SC/ESV Parndorf v SV Bad Aussee - Over
SCS v Kelag Karnten - Over
Guingamp - Bastia - Over
Veendam v Haarlem - Over
FC Omniworld v Roosendaal - Over
ADO Den Haag v Zwolle - under
Den Bosch v FC Eindhoven - Under
AGOVV v Maastricht - Over
Go Ahead Eagles v Dordrecht - Over
Waalwijk v Emmen - Over
Telstar v Cambuur - Over * *
Banfield - Colon - Over
THIS IS FOR FRIDAY I WILL WAIT UNTIL THE ODDS GET BETER(1-2,5% MARGIN)
100 EUROS PER BET( GOOD LUCK IS FOR AMATEURS ;) )
sic6sic
04-10-07, 16:09
got the same picks for tomorrow. I will post them later.
Anyway, on to better odds, finally got that fkn 2nd bonus from expekt, now back to good old
betfair :)
So i stop the counting now. The results for my Expekt.com account:
47 Games played:
29 WON, 18 LOST = 61.70% Accuracy
Starting bank = 200 Units

Final bank = 228.70 Units (14.35% profit)
It ain't much, but it's a better % then most banks give you ;)
Lol, anyway, the money is on my betfair account already, so i can start with the bets for
tomorrow (there's nothing interesting for today). I'll post 'm later.
Azure
04-10-07, 17:06
got the same picks for tomorrow.

I don't.
The following matches are not valid:
SCS v Kelag Karnten 3,40 - 2,80 - 1,40 - 4,80 - 3,10
FC Omniworld v Roosendaal 2,80 - 2,00 - 2,00 - 2,80 - 2,40
ADO Den Haag v Zwolle 2,00 - 3,40 - 2,00 - 3,40 - 2,70
AGOVV v Maastricht 4,60 - 2,00 - 2,00 - 4,60 - 3,30
Go Ahead Eagles v Dordrecht 3,80 - 3,60 - 2,20 - 5,20 - 3,70
Telstar v Cambuur 2,20 - 4,80 - 2,20 - 4,80 - 3,50
Banfield - Colon 3,33 - 2,75 - 2,42 - 3,67 - 3,04
Azure
04-10-07, 17:24
So far, I've got these matches fitting tomorrow:
austria2, parndorf-bad aussee, OVER: 3,40 - 3,80 - 3,00 - 4,20 - 3,60
austria2, austria magna2-schwadorf, OVER: 3,40 - 3,40 - 3,40 - 3,40 - 3,40
gerRLsüd, oggersheim-ingolstadt, OVER: 3,40 - 2,80 - 2,80 - 3,40 - 3,10
swiss2, concordia-vaduz, OVER: 3,83 - 2,83 - 2,83 - 3,83 - 3,33
france2, guingamp-bastia, OVER: 2,60 - 4,20 - 2,60 - 4,20 - 3,40
netherl2, veendam-haarlem, OVER: 4,00 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 4,00 - 3,50
netherl2, waalwijk-emmen, OVER: 4,40 - 3,20 - 3,20 - 4,40 - 3,80
netherl2, denbosch-eindhoven, OVER: 3,80 - 4,00 - 3,80 - 4,00 - 3,90
ireland1, waterford-derry, UNDER: 1,93 - 1,50 - 1,46 - 1,96 - 1,71
Didn't look up the odds - possibly some are too low...
interbastian
04-10-07, 17:25
I get the same values as Azure on the dutch games.
I've checked only those games that are odds 1.6 or more as games under these odds
automatically are invalid. This independently if the values are 5/5.
I know skatalites is waiting for higher odds but for them to be valid they must rice substantially.
Unfortunately I don't see that happening though.
interbastian
04-10-07, 17:30
So far, I've got these matches fitting tomorrow:
austria2, parndorf-bad aussee, OVER: 3,40 - 3,80 - 3,00 - 4,20 - 3,60
austria2, austria magna2-schwadorf, OVER: 3,40 - 3,40 - 3,40 - 3,40 - 3,40
gerRLsüd, oggersheim-ingolstadt, OVER: 3,40 - 2,80 - 2,80 - 3,40 - 3,10
swiss2, concordia-vaduz, OVER: 3,83 - 2,83 - 2,83 - 3,83 - 3,33
france2, guingamp-bastia, OVER: 2,60 - 4,20 - 2,60 - 4,20 - 3,40
ireland1, waterford-derry, UNDER: 1,93 - 1,50 - 1,46 - 1,96 - 1,71
Didn't look up the odds - possibly some are too low...
Yes Azure these games are offered at odds below 1.6, thus are invalid for betting according to
the strategy:

Haven't checked the rest yet.
SirTomDobby
04-10-07, 17:57
Open Pick(s) :
FC Nantes - FC Gueugnon over 2,5

AC Lugano - FC Wil over 2,5
parndorf-bad aussee over 2,5
austria magna2-schwadorf over 2,5
oggersheim-ingolstadt over 2,5
veendam-haarlem over 2,5
waalwijk-emmen over 2,5
denbosch-eindhoven over 2,5
waterford-derry under 2,5
Stats so far:
10 Picks total
8 won (80%)
2 lost (20%)
I also will try a combo with the irish game + the austrian games + the dutch games with a total
odd of 11,57, but only small.
yuvalfra
04-10-07, 18:33
skatalites, your picks are way off I think...
yuvalfra
04-10-07, 18:36
47 Games played:
29 WON, 18 LOST = 61.70% Accuracy
Starting bank = 200 Units

Final bank = 228.70 Units (14.35% profit)
It ain't much, but it's a better % then most banks give you ;)
Remember you've had quite a few invalid picks. With them cancelled you'd have an even bigger
hit-percentage. Anyhow, even with the wrong picks, 61.70% is a very good percentage in my
eyes.
We can't expect 70%+ on the long run. I am expecting a success of 60%-65%. The system
gives us an EDGE, it's no winning machine with no mistakes, but like in a good investment
money is made, progressively.
alzwei
04-10-07, 20:20
I tested your system like this. I have my u/o picks due to normal reasonning and where I think
the odds have a value, then I ckecked them with your system and went for the picks with 4-5/5
with 10€ stake. Now I had 100 picks 67 won 33 lost, invested 1000€ and money back 1073€, so
net proft 73€. Not big profit but still profit and I believe the system work and could be
improved.
I will continue testing, but I think we are spending much time calculating the same games, So I
propose if we can divide the job, and everyone of us caculate a different league and share the
caculation with others. This could save us a lot of time.
GL
skatalites
04-10-07, 20:21
ok you play only odds above 1,6 but what if you get 3 at 1,5 and lose 1
you have profit again.I will try it guys since i won 25000 at kino game :D :D :D :D :D
if my bank goes below 7500 i will stop it.Bank 15000
skatalites
04-10-07, 20:27
with 10€ stake. Now I had 100 picks 67 won 33 lost, invested 1000€ and money back 1073€, so
net proft 73€. Not big profit but still profit and I believe the system work and could be
improved.
GL
TOTALLY AGREE.SOMEONE SHOULD BE THE LEADER AND GIVE EVERYONE

WHO WANTS TO GIVE IT A SHOT 2 LEAGUES.
THAT WAY WE WILL KNOW BETTER WHAT LEAGUES HAVE MOST PROFIT.
AND MOST IMPORTANT WE SAVE TIME.
sic6sic
04-10-07, 22:50
with 10***8364; stake. Now I had 100 picks 67 won 33 lost, invested 1000***8364; and
money back 1073***8364;, so net proft 73***8364;. Not big profit but still profit and I believe
the system work and could be improved.
GL
TOTALLY AGREE.SOMEONE SHOULD BE THE LEADER AND GIVE EVERYONE

WHO WANTS TO GIVE IT A SHOT 2 LEAGUES.
THAT WAY WE WILL KNOW BETTER WHAT LEAGUES HAVE MOST PROFIT.
AND MOST IMPORTANT WE SAVE TIME.
indeed, very good idea.
skatalites
05-10-07, 10:00
Banfield - Colon - Over O
Kashima - Kobe - Over O
Hiroshima v Iwata - Over O
Kashiwa - G-Osaka - Under U
FC Moscow v Rostov /Under U
Khimki v Amkar - Over/Under U
Kuban v Kryliya Sovetov - Over/Under U
Troyes v Libourne O
Olimpo v San Martin U
Racing Club - Rosario U
San Lorenzo - Gimnasia La Plata O
Waterford v Derry U
odds moving average must be above 1,75
sic6sic
05-10-07, 12:08
Troyes v Libourne O
Waterford v Derry U
Only a recalc of the argentinian games:
Banfield - Colon
2.42 - 3.67 - 3.33 - 2.75 - 3.04 (4/5)
San Lorenzo - Gimnasia La Plata

2.40 - 4.20 - 4.20 - 2.40 - 3.30 (3/5)
Racing Club - Rosario

1.60 - 2.50 - 1.60 - 2.50 - 2.05 (3/5)
None of the games you picked are 5/5 games. We shouldn't take them.
Azure
05-10-07, 12:30
Troyes v Libourne O
Waterford v Derry U

skatalites, what the heck are you doing there!? More than half of those matches don't fit to the
system again.
You are giving the other users wrong information here. If you want to post matchups according
to different rules,
you should perhaps open your own thread.....
arg1,banfield-colon 3,33 - 2,75 - 2,42 - 3,67 - 3,04

=4/5 over, not valid!
jap1,kashima-kobe 2,85 - 3,69 - 2,85 - 3,69 - 3,27

=5/5 over, ok.
jap1,hiroshima-iwata 2,92 - 4,00 - 2,77 - 4,15 - 3,46

=5/5 over, ok.
jap1,kashiwa-osaka 1,92 - 2,85 - 1,54 - 3,23 - 2,38

rus1,fcmoscow-rostov 2,83 - 1,77 - 1,77 - 2,83 - 2,30

=3/5 under, not valid!
rus1,khimki-amkar 1,83 - 0,92 - 0,92 - 1,83 - 1,38

=5/5 under, ok.
rus1,kuban-kryliya 2,31 - 2,42 - 1,99 - 2,74 - 2,36

fra2,troyes-libourne 3,40 - 2,50 - 2,50 - 3,40 - 2,95

arg1,olimpo-sanmartin 1,67 - 2,17 - 1,67 - 2,17 - 1,92

=5/5 under, ok.
arg1,racing-rosario 1,60 - 2,50 - 1,60 - 2,50 - 2,05

arg1,sanlorenzo-gimlaplata 4,20 - 2,40 - 2,40 - 4,20 - 3,30

ire1,waterford-derry 1,93 - 1,50 - 1,46 - 1,96 - 1,71

=5/5 under, ok.
sic6sic
05-10-07, 12:34
system again.
to different rules,
Yeah, i did a fast recalc of the other matches too, loads of wrong picks.
Only the 5/5 games are valid !!!!!!
sic6sic
05-10-07, 13:46
Here are the games for today and tomorrow. Not that much games for today (there are a lot
more of them, but i was simply too late to catch 'm at the good odds).
The games were:

FSV Oggersheim - FC Inglostadt
Ajaccio - Clermont Foot
Amiens - Sedan-Ardennes
Guingamp - Bastia
Austria II - ASK Schwadorf
SC Parndorf - SV Bad Aussee
Figueirense SC - Internacional
Waterford - Derry City
BV Veendam - Haarlem
FC Den Bosch - EVV Eindhoven
RKC Waalwijk - Emmen VV
Concardia Basel - FC Vaduz
Vorskla - Khariv
That's everything for today. I wrote them down yesterday but i checked betfair this morning and
odds were already too low. So use these games if you find any better odds, but recalculate
them first to make sure i didn't made any mistakes.
Here are the games i play for friday, saturday and sunday. Stakes are currently at 11 units.
FRIDAY
Guingamp - Bastia (Over 2,5) @ 2,36 :(

2,60 - 4,20 - 2,60 - 4,20 - 3,40
Friday picks: 0W - 1L (00.00 % Accuracy)
SATURDAY
Veracruz - Atlante (Over 2.5) @ 1,68 :(

2,97 - 3,80 - 3,60 - 3,17 - 3,38
Kashima - Kobe (Over 2,5) @ 1,62 :D

2,85 - 3,69 - 2,85 - 3,69 - 3,27
Hiroshima - Iwata (Over 2,5) @ 1,62 :(

2,77 - 4,15 - 2,92 - 4,00 - 3,46
Altringham - Rushden & Diamonds (Over 2,5) @ 1,95 :D

2,67 - 4,00 - 3,50 - 3,17 - 3,33
Cambridge - Halifax (Over 2,5) @ 1,89 :D

2,83 - 3,33 - 2,83 - 3,33 - 3,08
Ebbsfleet United - Torquay (Over 2,5) @ 1,8 :D

2,67 - 5,17 - 2,67 - 5,17 - 3,92
Exeter City - Grays Athletic (Under 2,5) @ 1,88 :D

1,50 - 2,33 - 2,33 - 1,50 - 1,92
Vifk - PK35 (Over 2.5) @ 1,75 :D

2,54 - 3,12 - 2,75 - 2,91 - 2,83
Saturday picks: 6W - 2L (75.00 % Accuracy)

SUNDAY
CSKA Moskow - Luch Vladivostok (Under 2,5) @ 1,77 :(

1,85 - 2,36 - 1,85 - 2,36 - 2,10
Lokomotiv - Zenit St Petersburg (Over 2,5) @ 1,99 :(

2,86 - 3,66 - 3,27 - 3,25 - 3,26
River Plate - Boca Juniors (Over 2.5) @ 1,9 :(

2,80 - 5,80 - 5,00 - 3,60 - 4,30
LASK Linz - SV Salzburg (Under 2.5) @ 1,92 :(

1,67 - 2,00 - 2,00 - 1,67 - 1,83
HJK Helsinki - Lahti (Under 2.5) @ 1,95 :D

1,91 - 2,36 - 2,27 - 2,00 - 2,14
Randers - FC Midtjylland (Under 2.5) @ 2,02 :(

1,60 - 2,40 - 2,00 - 2,00 - 2,00
Necaxa - M Morelia (Over 2.5) @ 1,75 :(

2,80 - 3,50 - 2,80 - 3,50 - 3,15
San Luis - Puebla (Over 2.5) @ 1,72 :D

2,80 - 3,40 - 3,00 - 3,20 - 3,10
Gefle - Djurgardens (Under 2.5) @ 1,87 :D

1,64 - 2,27 - 1,73 - 2,18 - 1,95
Trelleborgs - AIK (Over 2.5) @ 1,94 :(

2,82 - 3,36 - 3,09 - 3,09 - 3,09
Sion - Grasshoppers Zurich (Over 2.5) @ 1,76 :(

3,07 - 4,80 - 3,20 - 4,67 - 3,93
Newells - Independiente (Under 2.5) @ 1,89 :(

1,13 - 2,40 - 1,33 - 2,20 - 1,77
Sunday picks: 1
3W - 9L (25.00 % Accuracy)
Status:
Starting bank: 200.00 Units

Current bank: 145.66 Units (27.17% Loss)
Azure
05-10-07, 14:26
FSV Oggersheim - FC Inglostadt
Ajaccio - Clermont Foot
Amiens - Sedan-Ardennes
Guingamp - Bastia
Austria II - ASK Schwadorf
SC Parndorf - SV Bad Aussee
Figueirense SC - Internacional
Waterford - Derry City
BV Veendam - Haarlem
FC Den Bosch - EVV Eindhoven
RKC Waalwijk - Emmen VV
Concardia Basel - FC Vaduz
Vorskla - Khariv
sic6sic, the match figueirense-inter was played already (0-0).
@ fra2,ajaccio-clermont and fra2,amiens-sedan

I left those two out because clermont and sedan played only four awaygames so far.
skatalites
05-10-07, 15:42
system again.
to different rules,
WHAT THE FCK IS 4/5 AND 3/5 AND 5/5

MAYBE IT IS HOME GAMES FOR HOME TEAM=AWAY GAMES FOR AWAY TEAMS
NEED SOME ENLIGHTMENT HERE PLEASE?
I GOT THE SAME NUMBERS AS YOU WHY THEY ARE NOT VALID
BierBaron
05-10-07, 16:00
San Lorenzo - Gimnasia La Plata

2.40 - 4.20 - 4.20 - 2.40 - 3.30 (3/5)
3/5 means there are just 3 of the calculations OVER 2,5 and two times they just 2,40.. but for
this system you need all 5 times the calculated Over.
skatalites
05-10-07, 16:10
3/5 means there are just 3 of the calculations OVER 2,5 and two times they just 2,40.. but for
this system you need all 5 times the calculated Over.[/quote]
THANKS MATE REMIND ME TO SEND YOY A GIFT WHEN I BUST THE **** BOOKIES.
yuvalfra
05-10-07, 17:38
skatalites you're making a mess of the thread. Please stop posting picks. Thanks.
sic6sic
05-10-07, 17:52
system again.
to different rules,

Reading this topic the first 5 pages and the last 5-10 pages will help you with the "enlightment"
:)
sic6sic
05-10-07, 18:00
Anyone who's willing to do the math for some other leagues ?
I don't have any time now, maybe tonight, but that will be very late.
Any help is much appreciated !
skatalites
05-10-07, 18:22
I don't have any time now, maybe tonight, but that will be very late.
Any help is much appreciated !
OK NOW I GOT IT YOU NEED ONLY 5/5

I MADE MY EXCEL FILE AND THE VALUES I GOT IS SIMILAR TO YOURS,
SORRY FOR ANY MESS UP GUYS.
FORGET ALL MY PICKS.
I START AGAIN WITH ALL 5/5
THANKS FOR THE UNDERSTANDING I AM NEW TO THIS SYSTEM.

MY NEXT PICKS WILL SHOW YOU THAT I GOT IT NOW RIGHT
BUT I WILL NOT SEND ODDS SINCE I PLAY AT BETFAIR AND SOME LEAGUES HAVE NO ODDS
TO OFFER UNTIL 1 DAY BEFORE.
YOU SHOULD GO FOR THE ODDS>1,6 2,4 IS UNDER 2,6 IS OVER
AND ALL THE 5 VALUE MUST BE THE SAME EITHER FOR OVER>2,6 OR UNDER<2,4
whyc
05-10-07, 19:14
@skatalites
PLEASE TURN THE CAPS LOCK OFF!! Its irritating!
Azure
05-10-07, 19:48
Alright everybody, I unload the fitting matchups I found for tomorrow here - not all of them are
plays for me (I'm not betting exactly according to yuvalfra's rules.), but they fit to the system
rules - only odds will most likely be too low for some of these and I don't post the lines but you
all may have different bookies and/or exchanges anyways, so check it out for yourselves. Hope I
made no errors, so all matches should be 5/5 >2,5 or 5/5 <2,5 ; posting-sequence is "home -
away - min - max - overall"; - GL t'all. ps_ah, and the following list is chronological...
mex1,veracruz tiburones rojos-atlante de mexico

3,60 - 3,17 - 2,97 - 3,80 - 3,38
jap1,kashima-kobe
2,85 - 3,69 - 2,85 - 3,69 - 3,27
jap1,hiroshima-iwata
2,92 - 4,00 - 2,77 - 4,15 - 3,46
gerRLnord,oberhausen-dortmund2
1,80 - 1,67 - 1,50 - 1,97 - 1,73
gerRLnord,lübeck-emden
2,40 - 1,00 - 1,00 - 2,40 - 1,70
fin2,vifk-pk35
2,75 - 2,91 - 2,54 - 3,12 - 2,83
slowk1,bystrica- nitra
2,00 - 1,80 - 1,80 - 2,00 - 1,90
hung1,rakospalotai-debrecen
2,80 - 3,20 - 2,60 - 3,40 - 3,00
econf,altrincham-rushden
3,50 - 3,17 - 2,67 - 4,00 - 3,33
econf,burton-salisbury
3,17 - 2,67 - 2,67 - 3,17 - 2,92
econf,cambridge-halifax
2,83 - 3,33 - 2,83 - 3,33 - 3,08
econf,ebbsfleet- torquay
2,67 - 5,17 - 2,67 - 5,17 - 3,92
econf,exeter-grays
2,33 - 1,50 - 1,50 - 2,33 - 1,92
croat1,cakovec-sibenik
3,40 - 4,20 - 3,00 - 4,60 - 3,80
slowk1,trencin-zilina
3,20 - 3,80 - 3,20 - 3,80 - 3,50
switz2,kriens-chiasso
3,20 - 4,17 - 2,63 - 4,73 - 3,68
switz2,wohlen-bellinzona
4,20 - 4,17 - 2,83 - 5,53 - 4,18
switz1,ybb-luzern
4,00 - 3,00 - 2,60 - 4,40 - 3,50
slow1,hit gorica-inter ljubljana
3,33 - 2,67 - 2,67 - 3,33 - 3,00
nor1,start-frederikstad
2,55 - 3,18 - 2,55 - 3,18 - 2,86
arg1,olimpo bahia-san martin
1,67 - 2,17 - 1,67 - 2,17 - 1,92
bra1,botafogo-santos
3,14 - 2,57 - 2,57 - 3,14 - 2,86
bra1,nautico-juventude
3,14 - 3,36 - 2,64 - 3,86 - 3,25
interbastian
05-10-07, 20:22
Here are a the picks from Argentinian Apertura that sic6sic and Azure haven't posted (probably
because they are played on Sunday)
I will keep on looking for picks in other leagues and post them when I find them.
River Plate vs. Boca Juniors. Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.85
5 – 3.37 – 2.57 – 5.8 – 4.19
Newell's Old Boys vs. Independiente. Under 2.5 goals. Odds 1.85
1.33 – 2.2 – 1.13 – 2.4 – 1.77
Guys a few post back some of you wanted to divide the work of findings picks by assigning
particular individuals with particular leagues in that case there should be more than one person
per league.
As you have probably noted sometimes mistakes are made. Therefore it's a good thing having
several people double checking.
Great work Azure and sic6sic!
interbastian
05-10-07, 20:56
And here are the picks for the Brazilian top league for Sunday. Azure and sic6sic already posted
Saturday picks:
Goias vs. Cruzeiro. Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.65

2.86 – 3.64 – 2.86 – 3.64 – 3.25
Figueirense vs. Parana Clube. Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.6

3.0 – 3.28 – 2.93 – 3.35 – 3.14
Cheers!
interbastian
05-10-07, 21:27
Two picks for Sunday and the third for Monday in Swedish Allsvenskan. This is a very hard
league to predict. I'm very interested in finding out if yuvalfra's strategy can make it
predictable.
Gefle IF vs. Djurgårdens IF. Under 2.5 goals. Odds 1.8

1.73 – 2.18 – 1.64 – 2.27 – 1.96
Trelleborgs FF vs. AIK. Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.85

3.09 – 3.1 – 2.82 – 3.37 – 3.1
Örebro SK vs. Kalmar FF. Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.75

3-28 – 3.28 – 3.28 – 3.28 – 3.28
Well people that's it for today I'll continue my search for 5/5 games for Sunday tomorrow.
alzwei
05-10-07, 21:30
Here are caculation for the Finnish next veikkausliiga roun on Sunday
http://i151.photobucket.com/albums/s128/alzwei/Untitled-2.jpg
HJK-Lahti & Mypa- Viikingit 5/5 you can get odds @ 2, really good value
MikeBurt
05-10-07, 21:48
Hi there,
I'm new here.. Is there anyone who could send me the Excel sheet you use here?
Thanks.
bad boy
05-10-07, 22:41
yuvalfra when you started to betting?
Betmaster
05-10-07, 22:52
Sorry for my ignorance, please could someone help me by explaining this system, i looked on
page 1 but am still confused.
skatalites
05-10-07, 23:28
Well,it is a little confusing.
RULES ARE:1) odds must be from 1,6 and above

2) 10 games must have been played at least on each league
and the main formula is
you take the home team and you divine the goals scored at home with the games played at
home you find a value say 1,6
then you divine the goals against at home say 1,8 then you add those two
values=3,4 thats the first value we need
you do the same and for the away team on away games
say you find 1,9 and 2 you add them=3,9 that is the second value
now you find the highest value between 1,6(goals scored at home)
with 2(goals the away team conceived away) which is 2
then you find the highest value between 1,8(goals conceived at home )and
1,9(goals the away team scored) which is 1,9
you add the two highest values 2+1,9=3,9 thats the third value
you do the same for the lowest values 1,6+1,8=3,4 thats the fourth value
now you find the average of the third and fourth value 3,9+3,4/2=3,65 thats the fifth value
now if all five values are above 2,6 you play it over
if all five values are below 2,4 you play it under.
if all these confused you i can send you my excel file
you just put the games and goals scored
and get the 5 values in no time ;)
just tell me your e-mail.
i will send it only if you promised that you will send any picks you find on the forum to help us
all save some time.
interbastian
05-10-07, 23:34
The sheet posted by alzwei a couple of post back is the easiest way to see how the calculations
are made. If that is your question, Betmaster?
You can look up the fixtures and other data such as goals scored and conceded in almost any
sports page. (Yuvalfra uses soccerway.com)
You do the calc, or the sheet does it for you, if you have one. As you see in the calculations by
alzwei above there are 2 games that comply with the 5 out of 5 criteria that appears in red for
each fixture under the headings of "Tot sco/con", "max/min" and "Average". In the sheet this 2
games finally are summed up furthermost to the right as under 5 over 0.
Hope you have found this note at least a little informative.
Betmaster
06-10-07, 01:32
Cheers guys, i think i understand. What was confusing me was the figures in the spreadsheet
which is posted above by alzwei. I think there is a mistake in the match TPS v Oulo.
Shouldn't the max be 4.2 and min 1.39?
sic6sic
06-10-07, 01:35
And here are the picks for the Brazilian top league for Sunday. Azure and sic6sic already posted
Saturday picks:
Goias vs. Cruzeiro. Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.65

2.86 ***8211; 3.64 ***8211; 2.86 ***8211; 3.64 ***8211; 3.25
Figueirense vs. Parana Clube. Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.6

3.0 ***8211; 3.28 ***8211; 2.93 ***8211; 3.35 ***8211; 3.14
Cheers!
tnx mate. Just finished calculating the last games, i've put some more in my previous post.
Now, i need a bed :)
interbastian
06-10-07, 12:30
Sic6sic, I'm curious.
On your picks for Sunday why did you bet on River Plate vs. Boca Juniors (I got the same
prediction) and not on Newell's Old Boys vs. Independiente. Under 2.5 goals. Odds 1.85
1.33 – 2.2 – 1.13 – 2.4 – 1.77 in the same league?
And why no bet on Mypa vs. Vinkinit, under when you decided to bet on HJK Helsinki - Lahti
(Under 2.5) (Correct) in the same league?
Did you just miss alzwei's and my posts or did you perhaps not come to the same 5/5 values as
us?
interbastian
06-10-07, 12:39
Cheers guys, i think i understand. What was confusing me was the figures in the spreadsheet
which is posted above by alzwei. I think there is a mistake in the match TPS v Oulo.
Shouldn't the max be 4.2 and min 1.39?
No, I got the same result as alzwei in his spreadsheet.

2.0+0.3= 2.3 min
2.2+1.090909=3.29 max
alzwei
06-10-07, 15:55
Finnish Ykkönen sunday 7/10
three playable games, with nice odds
http://i151.photobucket.com/albums/s128/alzwei/Ykknencopy.jpg
GL
sic6sic
06-10-07, 18:30
i love the conference league :D all those picks were right, last weekend only 1 wrong, awesome
:)
sockeye
06-10-07, 18:42
wow ! excellent result.
I think VIFK-PK35 game is not for sunday.
It is today, result 4-2 :)
unfortunately I missed it...
alzwei
06-10-07, 19:08
wow ! excellent result.
I think VIFK-PK35 game is not for sunday.
It is today, result 4-2 :)
unfortunately I missed it...
Sorry.. you are right.. I corrected it
BierBaron
06-10-07, 19:31
Sunday.
LASK - Salzburg tot. 2,00 - 1,67, min./max. 1,71 - 1,95 aver. 1,83
http://oddsoddsodds.com/goto/odds/s1/g367764/m2/d0/result_5/
River Plate - Boca tot. 5,00 - 3,60, min./max. 2,80 - 5,80 aver. 4,30
http://oddsoddsodds.com/goto/odds/s1/g367697/m2/d0/result_4/
Azure
06-10-07, 20:06
Here come tomorrow's valid matches. A lot have already been posted. Odds for all the
norwegian games are very low.
(sequence of posting: "home - away - min - max - overall"; list is chronological)
mex1, real san luis-puebla

3,00 - 3,20 - 2,80 - 3,40 - 3,10
mex1, cruz azul-monterrey
3,00 - 2,60 - 2,60 - 3,00 - 2,80
mex1, necaxa-atl monarcas morelia
2,80 - 3,50 - 2,80 - 3,50 - 3,15
rus1, lok moscow-zenit
3,27 - 3,25 - 2,86 - 3,66 - 3,26
rus1, cska-vladivostok
1,85 - 2,36 - 1,85 - 2,36 - 2,10
den1, randers-midtjylland
2,00 - 2,00 - 1,60 - 2,40 - 2,00
fin2, hämeenlinna-atlantis
2,27 - 2,18 - 2,00 - 2,45 - 2,23
fin2, kpv kokkola-tp47
3,27 - 2,58 - 2,58 - 3,27 - 2,93
ger3süd, ksc2-pfullendorf
1,40 - 2,00 - 1,00 - 2,40 - 1,70
nor2, bryne-tromsdalen
3,17 - 3,50 - 3,17 - 3,50 - 3,33
nor2, lovham-kongsvinger
3,33 - 3,42 - 2,83 - 3,92 - 3,38
nor2, raufoss-bodo
3,25 - 3,17 - 2,83 - 3,58 - 3,21
nor2, sparta-mandalskam
3,83 - 4,85 - 2,98 - 5,70 - 4,34
swe1, gefle-djurgarden
1,73 - 2,18 - 1,64 - 2,27 - 1,95
swe1, trelleborg-aik
3,09 - 3,09 - 2,82 - 3,36 - 3,09
ire2, monaghan-finn harps
2,47 - 2,07 - 2,07 - 2,47 - 2,27
switz1, sion-grass
3,20 - 4,67 - 3,07 - 4,80 - 3,93
fin1, hjk-lahti
2,27 - 2,00 - 1,91 - 2,36 - 2,14
fin1, myllykoski-viikingit
1,82 - 2,27 - 1,64 - 2,45 - 2,05
fin2, kups-tpv tampere
3,00 - 2,75 - 2,75 - 3,00 - 2,88
au1, lask-rb salzburg
2,00 - 1,67 - 1,67 - 2,00 - 1,83
nor1, rbk-odd
3,55 - 3,00 - 2,91 - 3,64 - 3,27
nor1, stabaek-aalesund
2,91 - 3,18 - 2,73 - 3,36 - 3,05
nor1, tromso-viking
2,90 - 3,73 - 2,90 - 3,73 - 3,31
nor2, sogndal-skeid
3,50 - 3,25 - 2,83 - 3,92 - 3,38
arg1, river plate-boca juniors
5,00 - 3,60 - 2,80 - 5,80 - 4,30
usa, houston dyn-la galaxy
2,14 - 2,46 - 2,14 - 2,46 - 2,31
arg1, newell-ca indepediente
1,33 - 2,20 - 1,13 - 2,40 - 1,77
bra1, goias-cruzeiro
2,86 - 3,64 - 2,86 - 3,64 - 3,25
bra1, figueirense-parana
3,23 - 3,15 - 3,00 - 3,38 - 3,19
sic6sic
06-10-07, 23:26
Here come tomorrow's valid matches. A lot have already been posted. Odds for all the
norwegian games are very low.
(sequence of posting: "home - away - min - max - overall"; list is chronological)
mex1, real san luis-puebla

3,00 - 3,20 - 2,80 - 3,40 - 3,10
mex1, cruz azul-monterrey
3,00 - 2,60 - 2,60 - 3,00 - 2,80
mex1, necaxa-atl monarcas morelia
2,80 - 3,50 - 2,80 - 3,50 - 3,15
rus1, lok moscow-zenit
3,27 - 3,25 - 2,86 - 3,66 - 3,26
rus1, cska-vladivostok
1,85 - 2,36 - 1,85 - 2,36 - 2,10
den1, randers-midtjylland
2,00 - 2,00 - 1,60 - 2,40 - 2,00
fin2, hämeenlinna-atlantis
2,27 - 2,18 - 2,00 - 2,45 - 2,23
fin2, kpv kokkola-tp47
3,27 - 2,58 - 2,58 - 3,27 - 2,93
ger3süd, ksc2-pfullendorf
1,40 - 2,00 - 1,00 - 2,40 - 1,70
nor2, bryne-tromsdalen
3,17 - 3,50 - 3,17 - 3,50 - 3,33
nor2, lovham-kongsvinger
3,33 - 3,42 - 2,83 - 3,92 - 3,38
nor2, raufoss-bodo
3,25 - 3,17 - 2,83 - 3,58 - 3,21
nor2, sparta-mandalskam
3,83 - 4,85 - 2,98 - 5,70 - 4,34
swe1, gefle-djurgarden
1,73 - 2,18 - 1,64 - 2,27 - 1,95
swe1, trelleborg-aik
3,09 - 3,09 - 2,82 - 3,36 - 3,09
ire2, monaghan-finn harps
2,47 - 2,07 - 2,07 - 2,47 - 2,27
switz1, sion-grass
3,20 - 4,67 - 3,07 - 4,80 - 3,93
fin1, hjk-lahti
2,27 - 2,00 - 1,91 - 2,36 - 2,14
fin1, myllykoski-viikingit
1,82 - 2,27 - 1,64 - 2,45 - 2,05
fin2, kups-tpv tampere
3,00 - 2,75 - 2,75 - 3,00 - 2,88
au1, lask-rb salzburg
2,00 - 1,67 - 1,67 - 2,00 - 1,83
nor1, rbk-odd
3,55 - 3,00 - 2,91 - 3,64 - 3,27
nor1, stabaek-aalesund
2,91 - 3,18 - 2,73 - 3,36 - 3,05
nor1, tromso-viking
2,90 - 3,73 - 2,90 - 3,73 - 3,31
nor2, sogndal-skeid
3,50 - 3,25 - 2,83 - 3,92 - 3,38
arg1, river plate-boca juniors
5,00 - 3,60 - 2,80 - 5,80 - 4,30
usa, houston dyn-la galaxy
2,14 - 2,46 - 2,14 - 2,46 - 2,31
arg1, newell-ca indepediente
1,33 - 2,20 - 1,13 - 2,40 - 1,77
bra1, goias-cruzeiro
2,86 - 3,64 - 2,86 - 3,64 - 3,25
bra1, figueirense-parana
3,23 - 3,15 - 3,00 - 3,38 - 3,19
tnx for all the work mate! Very much appreciated :D
Betmaster
07-10-07, 01:19
GL
Maybe I am being stupid but your numbers in the max/min column dont add up all the time
eg kpv v tp47. Shouldn't max be 3.51 (2.09+1.42) and min be 2.37 (1.18+1.17)?
alzwei
07-10-07, 01:45
GL
Maybe I am being stupid but your numbers in the max/min column dont add up all the time
eg kpv v tp47. Shouldn't max be 3.51 (2.09+1.42) and min be 2.37 (1.18+1.17)?
Ok.. KPV-TP 47
To calculate the max...

Goals concieved by KPV is 2.09090 and goals scored by TP 47 is 1.416667 so you take the
bigger 2.09090
Goals concieved by TP 47 is 1.166667 and goals scored by KPV is 1.181818 so you take the
bigger 1.181818
Now you add the two biger numbers to get the max 2.09090+1.181818=3.27
For the min.

You do the same but use the smaller values
Ps. If you read carefully the firsy post by the system inventor yuvalfra
you will find a better explanations
GL
weboy
07-10-07, 09:11
It seems Yuvalfra's Under/Over strategy works very well in some league,such as English
Conference (The most predictable one!)***12289; Brazilian 1st Campeonato ***12289;Finnish
2nd league,and in the past two seasons,we also know the strategy make profits in all English
leagues and German Bundesliga .
But also there are some leagues need betting aids.German north and south(i think perhaps
cause there are too many 2nd or youth teams of the Bundesliga clubs).Others like Dutch 2nd
Gouden Gids Divisie and Norwegian 2nd league ,the odds are always too low, such leagues
hardly have bet value on. And i don't clear how it runs in Swiss League ,Mexican Apertura ,MLS
and Argentina league .
So this is the point at which real problems occur- the match (league) chose strategy .The major
conclusion that i've drawn by using the Under/Over strategy in betting is there is no need for
desperately in finding more "suitable" matches ,be patient in waiting the proper match in the
proper league, we will take more profit :D
Feel free to take any discuss on the reply.
sic6sic
07-10-07, 10:15
I agree, if i (and we) would have more patience, we would have better rates, that's for sure. I
must confess, i have problem with it, it's in my nature :D . More holding on to that leagues that
are succesfull would be the same as making more profit. But i think we are trying too discover
"new leagues" too. Leagues in which the system works too.
I'm making my own "stats-library" now, to find out which leagues were succesful, i'll see what
that brings up.
What you said about the odds in the Dutch, Norwegian and others, i must say that when you
are fast enough (1 or 1.5 day in advance) you can have pretty good odds, somethimes though.
interbastian
07-10-07, 13:29
Many of the arguments you make seams to be right according to my first impressions and what
other members who have tried this out for a longer period of time can testify of.
About the odds, it's a problem really easy to solve. You just stick to the yuvalfra strategy 1.6
odds or over, otherwise no bet. independently of what league you bet on.
Personally I'm really interested in finding out how the formula works on Swedish Allsvenskan as
it is considered to be one of the most unpredictable in the world. I got to know this strategy at
the end of the season which is soon coming to a close in Sweden so I don't expect to be able to
evaluate it properly for another year at least.
Then I'm very interested in knowing how the strategy works in short leagues such as
Argentinian and Uruguayan. They play two short tournaments per season and not as in Europe
where there is one long tournament with home and away games with all teams in the league.
This means that the strategy can be used in a shorter period of time in Uru & Arg as you need
to wait 10 games at the start of the tournament before using it.
I wonder if this will increase the accuracy of the formula as statistics are extra fresh.
Again I don't expect to be able to truly be able to evaluate this for a long time.
Azure
07-10-07, 14:40
weboy, how long do you follow the strategy? I mean, what's your pool of data on which you rely
your statements? As long as you didn't back-test the system in the leagues and just refer to the
action of the last couple of weeks, that is not enough yet to make final conclusions. Where did
you get the data of " the past two seasons for all english leagues + ger1"? Afaik nobody around
here has tested this over a longer period of time (like a whole season) and documented the
results. Impressions are fine but not the real deal, you have to do the maths to be able to find
the "proper leagues". I am not as enthusiastic as some of the others here - after all, what have
we got so far? A promising start, that's nice and motivating but nothing more! Let's stick to the
daily work and not jump to conclusions too early. I'm running the system on certain leagues in
the past right now and some of the results are far from positive. When I come up with hard
facts I'll post them here - it could take some more days because it's such a boring and
timeconsuming thing to do ;) ...
ps: if anybody "likes" to help, speak up - but be warned: it really sucks!
alzwei
07-10-07, 15:12
Waiting your findings.. I agree on that, all what we have is just a positive start, but very
promising. After 1000 picks, if we can achieve 4-5% return on investment, it will be a very
successfull system. I agree it is boring also and that is one reason, I proposed divession of the
job bettween us.
weboy
07-10-07, 15:19
About two years ago. Yes,you are right.I :oops: make conclusion too simply. In the past, also I
got some results unpositivem , I guess not only you and me got the similar results.I didn't get
the total data or run a date system for recording the results in the past , campare with my other
bets,the under/over on English leagues and German Bundesliga are relatively positive, yes ,but
we must use the data for a conclusion,not use the feeling.Anyway,I'd like to do the work with
you . :D
interbastian
07-10-07, 18:22
When I come up with hard facts I'll post them here - it could take some more days because it's
such a boring and timeconsuming thing to do ;) ...
Yes, I would like to help out.

I know it's not fun but anything that might give us knowledge about how the strategy performs
is of great value, I think.
sic6sic
08-10-07, 00:32
If i can help, i would like to do it too. Let us know what we need to do.
Last weekend was a complete disaster, 12 losses. ooooo my :o

Anyway, up to better results, i did some calcs for the next days (monday, tuesday, wednesday)
and i found:
Orebro SK - Kalmar FF
Landskrona - Jonkopings Sodra
Forest Green - Northwich
Kidderminster - Halifax
So, my picks for tomorrow, all at 11 Units staked.
Orebro SK - Kalmar FF (Over 2.5) @ 1,91 :D

3,27 - 3,27 - 3,27 - 3,27 - 3,27
Landskrona - Jonkopings Sodra (Over 2.5) @ 1,79 :(

2,69 - 3,15 - 3,15 - 2,69 - 2,92
Status:
Current picks: 1W - 1L (50.00% Accuracy)

Azure
08-10-07, 12:16
The valid matches I posted for Sat+Sun finished 31-22. Saturday had exactly the necessary
hitting percentage (15-8), but Sunday was really awful and it gets much worse if you leave the
norwegian games out.
alzwei, weboy, interbastian, sic6sic: so far I'm working at England, Spain and Switzerland. I
think we should ignore leagues that come to an end soon (like some of the scandinavian ones).
I have the intention to go at least three seasons back to get a solid amount of data. Any
suggestion or idea of improvement (like, how to make this shxt more easy :) ) is welcome. If
you want to cover a league, make sure you have the necessary time left and definitely (!)
understand the calculation! Otherwise it's of no use...Note that it is absolutely possible that all
the work does NOT produce helpful results, it could just be a waste of time! I guess, most
helpful would be french L1, german BL1 and italian SA, so we see how all the big leagues have
performed. First come - first served ;)
sic6sic
08-10-07, 13:42
The valid matches I posted for Sat+Sun finished 31-22. Saturday had exactly the necessary
hitting percentage (15-8), but Sunday was really awful and it gets much worse if you leave the
norwegian games out.
alzwei, weboy, interbastian, sic6sic: so far I'm working at England, Spain and Switzerland. I
think we should ignore leagues that come to an end soon (like some of the scandinavian ones).
I have the intention to go at least three seasons back to get a solid amount of data. Any
suggestion or idea of improvement (like, how to make this shxt more easy :) ) is welcome. If
you want to cover a league, make sure you have the necessary time left and definitely (!)
understand the calculation! Otherwise it's of no use...Note that it is absolutely possible that all
the work does NOT produce helpful results, it could just be a waste of time! I guess, most
helpful would be french L1, german BL1 and italian SA, so we see how all the big leagues have
performed. First come - first served ;)
So we go 3 seasons back and calculate all of the games ... hell :D :) but if we can make a big
data system which will help us (hopefully) then it's worth the time.
I'll cover the German leagues (not only 1st, also 2nd and perhaps regional S&N too). Are you
doing the conference league too ? Otherwise i'd like to do that one too. Just let me know !
Azure
08-10-07, 14:31
Are you doing the conference league too ? Otherwise i'd like to do that one too. Just let me
know !
Till now I cover EPL and Championship, so Conference is all yours - I'm happy to get rid of one
of those 24-team-leagues, hehehe. About the procedure: I started with the 11th round (using
the 10th round table) and left those games out that didn't finish five home-/away-games. A
problem that arises from time to time: there are matches that were postponed, so the numbers
to use are actually not the ones of the previous round. I decided to ignore that and continue as
if the matches are fitting in the normal schedule - if we start taking care of the exact date when
those postponed matches were played, we will never get to an end. When I recall the past
years, I think that you will stumble upon this very often in german third leagues.
....and another advice: make regular breaks - you'll definitely need them ;)
yuvalfra
08-10-07, 16:42
You guys are going back 3 seasons for the stats? That is not necessery nor relevant IMO.
Azure
08-10-07, 16:46
You guys are going back 3 seasons for the stats? That is not necessery nor relevant IMO.Why
not?
yuvalfra
08-10-07, 18:05
not?
Squads change. Coaches change. Mentallity changes. Opposition changes.
interbastian
08-10-07, 18:15
I see what you mean now Azure. At first I thought you had a lot of data, games you had bet on
with the formula going back some time that you wanted help in analyzing.
But know I see that what you want to do is more comprehensive, that is excellent. Although a
lot more work, probably.
I will do the Spanish top league to start with, then if I find the time I will do others too. If that is
ok.
I can only see that this kind of knowledge is of great value to us as it helps us understand how
the strategy performs.
Where it is worthwhile using it and where it is not.
I'm very interested in knowing why the man himself, yuvalfra doesn't think so.
Therefore I'm waiting with great interest to his response.
sic6sic
08-10-07, 18:27
I see what you mean now Azure. At first I thought you had a lot of data, games you had bet on
with the formula going back some time that you wanted help in analyzing.
But know I see that what you want to do is more comprehensive, that is excellent. Although a
lot more work, probably.
I will do the Spanish top league to start with, then if I find the time I will do others too. If that is
ok.
I can only see that this kind of knowledge is of great value to us as it helps us understand how
the strategy performs.
Where it is worthwhile using it and where it is not.
I'm very interested in knowing why the man himself, yuvalfra doesn't think so.
Therefore I'm waiting with great interest to his response.
as he already said; squads change, teams in competition change, ... mmm, i agree, i don't know
anymore if it is relevant. I mean, if everything would stay the same, we could even analysis one
single season to gather enough data. But i don't know now.
I was thinking about it today, and i must say, i have serious doubts if it will be smart to do. Not
about a smart thing (it is smart, we would get stats), but it will take up loads of time, and as
yuvalfra said, everything changes, we can't rely on the past (the way it was) to make
calculations of the present. So many factors will be changed. That is why we wait until 10
matches are played in a league. We wait until the teams get fully rotated and see the scoring
and conceiving potential of a team. Otherwise we could simply look at the past season to get an
idea, but we all know that players leave and players come.
Azure
08-10-07, 18:32
:D Yes, that's all correct and it's the reason why I said in a previous post, that this back-testing
could turn out to be useless. Still, as yourself stated more than once, it seems that the system
produces better results with certain leagues. But take for instance the EPL (correct me if I'm
wrong but I think that was one of the leagues you want to bet on) - it looks like a big minus
according to the stats I have calculated so far (not finished yet). At least we could come up with
an information if this would've generated any profit at all over a longer period in the past. In
case of a negative result that could safe a lot of money, nerves and time.
interbastian
08-10-07, 19:36
not?
And the response came while I was writing my previous post.

I knew this answer, I have read it before. I didn't remember it probably because it beaks with
the logic of the strategy in my view.
I say this with great respect as you are my betting guru yuvalfra.
The arguments you make can just as easily apply to the question:
Why follow the formula/strategy strictly in all cases? Why not ignore it when common sense
says otherwise?
For example:
If the formula says that the result will be over 2.5 goals in a particular match and we all know
this is not probable because of injuries among the teams best goal scorers, recent low moral in
the teams and so on.
Still we do not second guess the numbers.
Why?
Because this is a strictly mathematical calculation.
It doesn't allow to take into account what is otherwise considered to be common sense
arguments.
At first this seems to be a weakness. But as we all know common sense reasoning does not
alway result in logical outcomes.
Actually more often than not it results in unforseen outcomes.
The strict mathematical approach of the strategy breaks with all that and what seems to be a
weakness becomes actually a strength. The numbers seem to be able to predict outcomes
better than common sense arguments.
And as you see in my example above, common sense arguments like change of tactic, change of
coach injuries to key players, change of moral and so on do not only appear in between season
but also during seasons.
So if the strategy has worked fine taking into account numbers only (and should work fine in the
future as well) in each and every season, why wouldn't we be able to sum up past results in
order to see how it will perform in the future, generally and in particular leagues?
yuvalfra
08-10-07, 19:55
not?
And the response came while I was writing my previous post.

I knew this answer, I have read it before. I didn't remember it probably because it beaks with
the logic of the strategy in my view.
I say this with great respect as you are my betting guru yuvalfra.
The arguments you make can just as easily apply to the question:
Why follow the formula/strategy strictly in all cases? Why not ignore it when common sense
says otherwise?
For example:
If the formula says that the result will be over 2.5 goals in a particular match and we all know
this is not probable because of injuries among the teams best goal scorers, recent low moral in
the teams and so on.
Still we do not second guess the numbers.
Why?
Because this is a strictly mathematical calculation.
It doesn't allow to take into account what is otherwise considered to be common sense
arguments.
At first this seems to be a weakness. But as we all know common sense reasoning does not
alway result in logical outcomes.
Actually more often than not it results in unforseen outcomes.
The strict mathematical approach of the strategy breaks with all that and what seems to be a
weakness becomes actually a strength. The numbers seem to be able to predict outcomes
better than common sense arguments.
And as you see in my example above, common sense arguments like change of tactic, change of
coach injuries to key players, change of moral and so on do not only appear in between season
but also during seasons.
So if the strategy has worked fine taking into account numbers only (and should work fine in the
future as well) in each and every season, why wouldn't we be able to sum up past results in
order to see how it will perform in the future, generally and in particular leagues?
You make a good case, yet my stance remains. I'll elaborate:
It is true that the system's strength is in its simplicity and success through mathematics alone.
However, I do agree that different criterias such as injuries, different changes or even weather
can affect the outcome and an UNDER will easily become OVER and vice-versa. I am not
denying these criterias' affect on the outcome however I claim that by ignoring the different
crtierias and going by math only we "ignore" the extra stats to avoid over-picking. I doubt you
can find out so much information about teams in lower leagues such as scandinavian leagues,
south-american or even lower english leagues and such. My point is - I would rather hit 57%
instead of 59% whilst keeping it simple.
In addition to the above, I claim that rollbacking 3 years of stats is useless. Teams change.
Take for example Deportivo in spain. Once a leading club, these days? Whole different situation.
Again, the simplicity of the system comes from the fact that it relies on math only, but
eventhough it's math alone we need it to be RELEVANT math. Why don't we check Chelsea's
home goals scored when they are playing away? Because it's irrelevant. In the same manner
checking last year's stats - irrelevant. So many factors change it becomes roulett-betting based
on math - that's not the system's intention.
I agree changes come in-season as well as between seasons, but not as much and not as
drastic.
Anyway, I find it great that you guys are trying to tweak the system, but don't forget - the
simplicity and easiness of the betting is what makes it special (and ofcourse the fact it works).
Lets keep doing that!
Good luck team :)
Azure
08-10-07, 20:18
yufalvra, till now we only guess but don't know. I'd prefer to know what the system would have
produced in the past. If you have the possibility to prove a thesis right or wrong in advance,
especially before you invest money in it, you do it, don't you!? I completely understand your
point, be sure that I thought about those seasonal changes, too - and it's clear that a knowledge
"in advance" will only be vague because of the circumstances you mentioned, but I am sure if
the back-testing shows a long line of losing seasons you and me would begin to get serious
doubts...Besides, if you really think that the past is of no relevance here, why do you wait for
certain leagues to get playable? It should be of no interest to you which league you bet on,
because they all start at zero at the beginning of a new season!?
sic6sic
09-10-07, 01:05
Something for the present, tomorrows picks :
Forest Green - Northwich (Over 2.5) @ 1,61 :D

3,00 - 4,57 - 4,43 - 3,14 - 3,79
Kidderminster - Halifax (Over 2.5) @ 1,87 :(

3,43 - 3,57 - 3,57 - 3,43 - 3,50
Status:

alzwei
09-10-07, 02:00
I think it is a good idea to check if the system have worked by caculating the last three seasons.
I can take one of the leagues, but the problem, I will have only one hour a day, and I can not
gues how long it will take.
sic6sic
10-10-07, 02:13
I calculated some, and found the following games for the next days.
Take your advantage of it, as it is still early, so go out and bet :D
Thursday
Oxford - Torquay (Over 2.5) @ 1,89 :D

2,86 - 4,86 - 2,86 - 4,86 - 3,86
Status:

Friday
Bohemians - Galway Utd (Under 2.5) :D

1,43 - 2,35 - 1,86 - 1,92 - 1,89
Derry City - UCD Dublin (Under 2.5) :D

1,99 - 2,16 - 2,00 - 2,15 - 2,08
Sligo Rovers - St Patricks Athletic (Under 2.5) :(

1,86 - 2,46 - 2,46 - 1,86 - 2,16
Cambuur Leeuwarden - Go Ahead Eagles (Over 2.5) :(

3,20 - 4,00 - 3,20 - 4,00 - 3,60
FC Eindhoven - RKC Waalwijk (Over 2.5) :D

3,00 - 4,00 - 4,00 - 3,00 - 3,50
FC Volendam - FC Den Bosch (Over 2.5) :D

2,60 - 3,60 - 3,60 - 2,60 - 3,10
FC Zwolle - AGOVV Apeldoorn (Over 2.5) :D

3,20 - 5,20 - 3,20 - 5,20 - 4,20
Saturday
Port Vale - Brighton (Under 2.5) :D

1,60 - 2,40 - 2,40 - 1,60 - 2,00
Southend - Crewe (Over 2.5) :D

2,60 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 2,60 - 2,80
Ebbsfleet United - Droylsden (Over 2.5) :(

2,71 - 4,29 - 2,71 - 4,29 - 3,50
Burton Albion - Aldershot (Over 2.5) :(

3,00 - 4,29 - 3,71 - 3,57 - 3,64
Northwich - Exeter (Over 2.5) :(

2,71 - 4,00 - 3,29 - 3,43 - 3,36
Cruzeiro - Nautico (Over 2.5) :D

3,67 - 4,00 - 4,00 - 3,67 - 3,83
Sport Recife - Figueirense (Over 2.5) :(

3,20 - 3,67 - 3,67 - 3,20 - 3,43
JJK Jyvaskyla - Klubi 04 Helsinki (Over 2.5) :(

2,83 - 3,00 - 2,83 - 3,00 - 2,92
TPV Tampere - VIFK Vaasa (Under 2.5) :D
1,91 - 2,27 - 2,27 - 1,91 - 2,09
Tecos - Santos (Over 2.5) :(

3,20 - 3,80 - 3,80 - 3,20 - 3,50
Atvidabergs FF - Osters IF (Under 2.5) :D

1,85 - 2,31 - 2,15 - 2,00 - 2,08
Sunday
Peterborough - Wycombe (Over 2.5) :D

2,60 - 3,20 - 3,20 - 2,60 - 2,90
Farsley Celtic - Oxford (Under 2.5) :D

2,14 - 2,33 - 2,33 - 2,14 - 2,24
Histon - Kidderminster (Over 2.5) :D

3,57 - 3,71 - 3,71 - 3,57 - 3,64
Vasco Da Gama - Botafogo (Over 2.5) :D

2,59 - 3,48 - 3,00 - 3,07 - 3,03
AB Kopenhavn - Hvidovre IF (Over 2.5) :D

2,60 - 3,60 - 3,40 - 2,80 - 3,10
Sonderjyske - Frem Copenhagen (Over 2.5) :D

2,80 - 3,60 - 3,60 - 2,80 - 3,20
GBK Kokkola - FC Hameenlinna (Over 2.5) :(

2,58 - 2,67 - 2,67 - 2,58 - 2,63
America Mexico - Veracruz (Over 2.5) :(

2,80 - 4,20 - 4,20 - 2,80 - 3,50
Atlante - Pachucha (Over 2.5) :D

2,85 - 4,05 - 3,50 - 3,40 - 3,45
Haugesund - Bryne (Over 2.5) :D

3,08 - 3,54 - 3,54 - 3,08 - 3,31
Kongsvinger IL - Sogndal (Over 2.5) :D

2,62 - 2,85 - 2,77 - 2,69 - 2,73
Tromsdalen - Raufoss (Over 2.5) :(

2,54 - 3,85 - 2,85 - 3,54 - 3,19
Skeid - Moss (Over 2.5) :D

2,69 - 3,38 - 2,85 - 3,23 - 3,04
Sirius - Bunkeflo IF (Over 2.5) :D

3,08 - 3,85 - 3,77 - 3,15 - 3,46
DC United - Chicago (Over 2.5) :(

2,57 - 4,15 - 4,15 - 2,57 - 3,36
NE Revolution - Columbus (Over 2.5) :D

3,07 - 3,67 - 3,67 - 3,07 - 3,37
New York - Kansas City (Over 2.5) :D

2,99 - 3,54 - 3,07 - 3,46 - 3,27
Monday
Luton - Northampton (Over 2.5) :D
3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00
Bray Wanderers - Derry City (Under 2.5) :D

1,62 - 2,25 - 2,25 - 1,62 - 1,93
TOTAL
26W - 12L
68.42 % Accuracy
interbastian
10-10-07, 16:48
Great job as always sic6sic!
I will stay mainly stay away from the over/under game this week to focus national sides
qualifying games. But I'll be at it again next week.
GL to all!
Betmaster
10-10-07, 17:08
I would love to help out, could somebody please send me the spreadsheet. If you PM me, I will
give you my email address.
Thanks
sic6sic
10-10-07, 17:58
i also got the resuls for this sunday, post them within an hour
l8erz!
Mau_rino
11-10-07, 19:55
Hi boys, I’m a new user of this forum that follows gives approximately two months your strategy
and has a 66% of prono exact on a total of approximately 200 left. I have brought some
modifications to my excel file with respect to the calculation of the Under/Over having
previewed one threshold >3,20 (therefore advanced to usuals 2,50) for the over and <1>3,2
(comparison home/away + head to head/2) then the parameters that can be enough become 5.
Finally, taking in consideration always it samples to you with number of played games > = 8
and odds >1,50, the odd offered from mine book with that one deriving from eventual stakes in
my possession controls also the convenience of the quota confronting. I hope of to have been
clear and being able to make part of this work group. See you soon!
P.s. Excuse for my english!
cmf
12-10-07, 07:34
Guys, just some thoughts after following the last couple of posts:
1. I think that it might be a very good idea to seek more info on a game than just pure math.
I'm asure that we can all agree that the more info one has the better (in any given situation in
general, and in betting in particular). This being said, it might be worth looking into any info
available for a match that one decides to bet on. With the right amount of info one should be
able to make even more money. Thus, the calculations that yuvalfra taught us should be used
to select events to bet on, but should not be the only criteria for betting on a match.
2. I love the idea that people want to test the system on past encounters. But while listening to
your arguments I was thinking to myself: hey why not make a script that does the calculations
by itself. Simply input the results and let it tell you for every week, what the picks would have
been, whether they were correct and so on. I'll be thinking about such a script in the next days.
3. If you go back to test the theory you can also check for better thresholds for picks. For
example, you might find out that for over, instead of taking all the games that were over 3 on
average, if you took the ones that were over say 3.25 you might end up with more money.
Mau_rino
12-10-07, 09:03
Hi to everybody, for this week-end:
- Sirius - Bunkeflo Over

- New York - Kansas C. Over
- Cambur - Ga Eagles Over
- Cruzeiro - Nautico Over
pryda
12-10-07, 10:46
I've a question about the requirements of at least 10 played games: 10 games - 5 home/5 away
or 10 home and 10 away games (that makes 20). Thanks in advance.
sic6sic
12-10-07, 11:08
I was thinking that too. There should be a way to gather the stats from the sites to use it in a
program. It would save us a lot of time.
Anyone who has the abilities and interest to make such a script ?
sic6sic
12-10-07, 11:19
I've a question about the requirements of at least 10 played games: 10 games - 5 home/5 away
or 10 home and 10 away games (that makes 20). Thanks in advance.
At least 5 games should be played in total. This means we can start in week 11 of a particular
league.
For your previous post, i get the following results:
Weymouth - home games:

Scored: 11
Conceived: 10
Games played: 7
Crawley Town - away games:

Scored: 5
Conceived: 11
Games Played: 7
So we get:
MIN: 2.29
MAX: 3.00
Home AVG: 3.00
Away AVG: 2.29
MIn/MAX: 2.64
What means a 3/5 over, so a NO BET
pryda
12-10-07, 11:27
Yes, i found my mistake later and re-edit my post ;) Thank you for the explanation.
sic6sic
12-10-07, 11:39
Because of the low odds on the dutch games, these are my games for today:
Friday
Bohemians - Galway Utd (Under 2.5) @ 1.71 :D

1,43 - 2,35 - 1,86 - 1,92 - 1,89
Derry City - UCD Dublin (Under 2.5) @ 1.68 :D

1,99 - 2,16 - 2,00 - 2,15 - 2,08
Sligo Rovers - St Patricks Athletic (Under 2.5) @ 1.67 :(

1,86 - 2,46 - 2,46 - 1,86 - 2,16
Status:

pryda
12-10-07, 11:57
Just for the record:
FC Eindhoven vs. RKC Waalwijk
4 - 3 - 4 - 3 - 3.5 => OVER, BUT the ODD sucks a lot :) 1.35 @ Sportingbet. I wont bet on that
but im training with the stats. I'll be glad if someone check them and say if im right/wrong.
pryda
12-10-07, 12:08
Sorry for the flood but i think i've found a suitable game:
Volendam vs. Den Bosch
3.6 - 2.6 - 3.6 - 2.6 - 3.1 => Over
ODD: 1.6 @ Sportingbet
pryda
12-10-07, 14:39
I want to share a "program" i've made. You only need to enter the number of goals and games
and the program calculate everything for you and give you a prediction ;)
* You must have Excel to use it.

* If you have problems with downloading write your email's or tell me other upload server (im
using local server)
Here is the link: http://share.bol.bg/download/RUb0gxauSM
It's nothing special but it's a great assistent and saves you many calculations :) Enjoy.
sic6sic
12-10-07, 14:58
Sorry for the flood but i think i've found a suitable game:
Volendam vs. Den Bosch
3.6 - 2.6 - 3.6 - 2.6 - 3.1 => Over

ODD: 1.6 @ Sportingbet
i've post 'm a few posts back (look up) if you want to check the numbers.
indeed, odds are way too low, but that's the dutch league ...
Mau_rino
12-10-07, 15:31
- Sirius - Bunkeflo Over

- New York - Kansas C. Over
- Cambur - Ga Eagles Over -------------- odds < 1,50 - NO
- Cruzeiro - Nautico Over
pryda
12-10-07, 22:00
Volendam vs. Den Bosch - OVER 2.5 (4-1) :D
Thats a good start.
interbastian
12-10-07, 22:17
Very interesting, Mau_rino. I think yuvalfra will be against modifying the strategy as he wants
to keep it simple.
If I remember correctly other people have made this kind of modifications to his formula before
and ha has dismissed them.
Me, personally I'm for anything that can improve the success, performance of the formula as
long as the effort is worth the increased accuracy of the formula.
So I think as long as the strategy continues to be a strictly mathematical formula I think that
any change that improves the results is welcome.
Mau_rino, did you get 66% success with the original yuvalfra formula or after you improved it?
Guys, just some thoughts after following the last couple of posts:
1. I think that it might be a very good idea to seek more info on a game than just pure math.
I'm asure that we can all agree that the more info one has the better (in any given situation in
general, and in betting in particular). This being said, it might be worth looking into any info
available for a match that one decides to bet on. With the right amount of info one should be
able to make even more money. Thus, the calculations that yuvalfra taught us should be used
to select events to bet on, but should not be the only criteria for betting on a match.
3. If you go back to test the theory you can also check for better thresholds for picks. For
example, you might find out that for over, instead of taking all the games that were over 3 on
average, if you took the ones that were over say 3.25 you might end up with more money.
Hi cmf, leaving the strict mathematical formula and taking in common sense arguments will
increase the accuracy of the formula a little but not enough to be worth the extra effort that
goes in to weighing common sense arguments against each other, in this I agree with yuvalfra.
Of course I agree with you on going back to look how the formula performs. Good luck on your
script. In the meanwhile I'll be checking the Spanish leagues past seasons by hand.
The threshold idea can be a good one as well, the accuracy will go up substantially but we run
the risk of not finding enough picks or finding picks with very low odds, so low that it is not
worth betting.
sic6sic
12-10-07, 23:17
Picks for today:
Saturday
Port Vale - Brighton (Under 2.5) @ 1.74 :D

1,60 - 2,40 - 2,40 - 1,60 - 2,00
Southend - Crewe (Over 2.5) @ 1.85 :D

2,60 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 2,60 - 2,80
Ebbsfleet United - Droylsden (Over 2.5) @ 1.78 :(

2,71 - 4,29 - 2,71 - 4,29 - 3,50
Burton Albion - Aldershot (Over 2.5) @ 1.78 :(

3,00 - 4,29 - 3,71 - 3,57 - 3,64
Northwich - Exeter (Over 2.5) @ 1.81 :(

2,71 - 4,00 - 3,29 - 3,43 - 3,36
TPV Tampere - VIFK Vaasa (Under 2.5) @ 1.97 :D

1,91 - 2,27 - 2,27 - 1,91 - 2,09
Sport Recife - Figueirense (Over 2.5) @ 1.64 :(

3,20 - 3,67 - 3,67 - 3,20 - 3,43
Tecos - Santos (Over 2.5) @ 1.72 :D

3,20 - 3,80 - 3,80 - 3,20 - 3,50
Atvidabergs FF - Osters IF (Under 2.5) @ 1.78 :D

1,85 - 2,31 - 2,15 - 2,00 - 2,08
Status:

Mau_rino
13-10-07, 02:27
Very interesting, Mau_rino. I think yuvalfra will be against modifying the strategy as he wants
to keep it simple.
If I remember correctly other people have made this kind of modifications to his formula before
and ha has dismissed them.
Me, personally I'm for anything that can improve the success, performance of the formula as
long as the effort is worth the increased accuracy of the formula.
So I think as long as the strategy continues to be a strictly mathematical formula I think that
any change that improves the results is welcome.
Mau_rino, did you get 66% success with the original yuvalfra formula or after you improved it?
Thank's Interbastian...............................66% is with my formula but I, actually, don't know if

use Head/Head or not....................this is the problem. What do you think?
alzwei
13-10-07, 15:29
Interbastian, you are calculating the Spanish leagues manually but I think Azure is caculating
the Spanish,English and Swiss. So may be it is worth to calculate some other league.
For me I started calculating the German but it is really time consuming, I hope somebody can
wright a program as CMF propsed.
sic6sic
14-10-07, 00:18
Sunday
Peterborough - Wycombe (Over 2.5) @ 1.85 :D

2,60 - 3,20 - 3,20 - 2,60 - 2,90
Farsley Celtic - Oxford (Under 2.5) @ 1.9 :D

2,14 - 2,33 - 2,33 - 2,14 - 2,24
Vasco Da Gama - Botafogo (Over 2.5) @ 1.73 :D

2,59 - 3,48 - 3,00 - 3,07 - 3,03
AB Kopenhavn - Hvidovre IF (Over 2.5) @ 1.61 :D

2,60 - 3,60 - 3,40 - 2,80 - 3,10
GBK Kokkola - FC Hameenlinna (Over 2.5) @ 1.75 :(

2,58 - 2,67 - 2,67 - 2,58 - 2,63
Atlante - Pachucha (Over 2.5) @ 1.71 :D

2,85 - 4,05 - 3,50 - 3,40 - 3,45
Sirius - Bunkeflo IF (Over 2.5) @ 1.62 :D

3,08 - 3,85 - 3,77 - 3,15 - 3,46
America Mexico - Veracruz (Over 2.5) @ 1.72 :(

2,80 - 4,20 - 4,20 - 2,80 - 3,50
DC United - Chicago (Over 2.5) @ 1.75 :(

2,57 - 4,15 - 4,15 - 2,57 - 3,36
NE Revolution - Columbus (Over 2.5) @ 1.68 :D

3,07 - 3,67 - 3,67 - 3,07 - 3,37
New York - Kansas City (Over 2.5) @ 1.77 :D

2,99 - 3,54 - 3,07 - 3,46 - 3,27
Status:

Azure
14-10-07, 02:10
Interbastian, you are calculating the Spanish leagues manually but I think Azure is caculating
the Spanish,English and Swiss. So may be it is worth to calculate some other league.
For me I started calculating the German but it is really time consuming, I hope somebody can
wright a program as CMF propsed.
Hey, mates!
Couple of days back, my computer decided to have some kind of nervous breakdown or
something else of a fatal nature. In the course of those events the whole data got f*cked up and
disappeared into nirvana, so I had to restart the process....after I finished screaming, that is;
and doing some sports to get rid of the steaming aggression which was violently demanding to
be let out. Damn, bloody crap! I was almost throwing that dumbsh*t electronic waste outta the
window! Now I see that it had at least one positive effect: interbastian's spanish calculations (I
have to admit I somehow missed your initial announcement about that, else I'd have spoken up
earlier) are no doubled work cuz I restarted with England....
sic6sic, nice daily work - sadly the results are somewhat unfitting right now.
pryda
14-10-07, 16:04
sic6sic, which source do you use to find out games? Im using sfstats, but they offered me just
the half of your games. For example they didn't offer these matches so i couldn't know they've
existed:
Atlante - Pachucha
DC United - Chicago
NE Revolution - Columbus
New York - Kansas City
Mau_rino
14-10-07, 16:11
- Sirius - Bunkeflo Over ............................ :D

- New York - Kansas C. Over ......................... :D
- Cruzeiro - Nautico Over................................ :D
3/3 ------ 100%
sic6sic
14-10-07, 16:35
sic6sic, which source do you use to find out games? Im using sfstats, but they offered me just
the half of your games. For example they didn't offer these matches so i couldn't know they've
existed:
Atlante - Pachucha
DC United - Chicago
NE Revolution - Columbus
New York - Kansas City
www.goal.com
They have the most complete list of all soccer matches over the whole world.
pryda
14-10-07, 16:49
Yes, i've noticed, nice. Am i blind or there aren't any stats in that site? So my next question -
can you suggest me any site with fixtures + stats?
sic6sic
14-10-07, 16:52
Yes, i've noticed, nice. Am i blind or there aren't any stats in that site? So my next question -
can you suggest me any site with fixtures + stats?
www.soccerway.com
CasE
14-10-07, 19:22
Well, nice picks for today sic6sic! :D
Keep it good work!
pryda
14-10-07, 22:46
My picks this weekend:
Friday:
Volendam v Den Bosch [OVER] ;)
Saturday:
Ebbsfleet v Droylsden [OVER] :oops:
Burton v Aldershot [OVER] :oops:
Nortwich v Exetar [OVER] :oops:
Southend Utd v Crewe Alexandre [OVER] ;)
Port Vale v Brighton [UNDER] ;)
Atvidabergs v Osters [UNDER] ;)
Sunday:
Sirius v Bunkenflo [OVER] ;)
Mjallby v Hacken [OVER] :oops:
Peterborough v Wycombe [OVER] ;)
Farsley v Oxford [UNDER] ;)
Histon v Kidderminster [OVER] ;)
Vasco RJ v Botafogo RJ [OVER] ;)
sic6sic
15-10-07, 02:04
What a weekend. 66.67 hit rate on 36 games (see previous page). Not that bad.
Thanks for all the complements guyz! :D
Monday
Luton - Northampton (Over 2.5) @ 1.91 :D

3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00
Bray Wanderers - Derry City (Under 2.5) @ 1.73 :D

1,62 - 2,25 - 2,25 - 1,62 - 1,93
Status:

kranone
15-10-07, 13:55
What a weekend. 66.67 hit rate on 36 games (see previous page). Not that bad.
Thanks for all the complements guyz! :D
Monday
Luton - Northampton (Over 2.5) @ 1.91

3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00
WTF ????
Luton home: scored 1.8, conceded 1.2

Northampton away: scored 1.2, conceded 1.8
min 1.2, max 1.8

avg = 1.5
so UNDER<2.5
????
sic6sic
15-10-07, 13:57
nope. Did a recalc and got the same values.
karnobat1
15-10-07, 14:35
nope. Did a recalc and got the same values.
so finaly
Luton - Northampton under or over...?
kranone
15-10-07, 14:45
so write your calculation here,
for me UNDER 100%
sic6sic
15-10-07, 14:49
so write your calculation here,
for me UNDER 100%
Home Team
Scored: 9
Conceived: 6
Played: 5
Away Team
Scored: 6
Conceived: 9
Played: 5
AVG Home: 3.00

AVG Away: 3.00
MIN: 3.00
MAX: 3.00
AVG MIN/MAX: 3.00
kranone
15-10-07, 14:57
you can't add the number of goals scored and lost by teamt which play at home.
if they scored 9 goals in 5 matches home so the AVG is 1.8
if they lost 6 goals in 5 matches home so the AVG is 1.2
you can't count the AVG of (9+6)/5=3.0
why ? cause this avg depense of other teams which played with that MAIN HOME team.
the AVG 3.0 depenses on teams A, B, C , D , E which played matches with LUTON that time
when the Luton played home.
so in my opinion there is AVG 1.8 and 1.2 not 3.0
kranone
15-10-07, 14:57
and write how you counted AVG min AVG max, cause i don't understand the way in which you
are thinking ;p
yuvalfra
15-10-07, 15:22
kranone, do me a favour and read the first post of the thread (and UNDERSTAND it) before you
start critisizing and judging someone experienced with the system whose doing a great job
looking for picks.
sic6sic
15-10-07, 15:22
and write how you counted AVG min AVG max, cause i don't understand the way in which you
are thinking ;p
read the first pages of this topic please. Yuvalfra explains there how you need to calculate a
game.
Azure
15-10-07, 16:31
Very nice Sunday, just when I wrote the results are not fitting :)
I am sorry, but I have bad news - first back-testing results: EPL, seasons 04/05 + 05/06 +
06/07
208 valid predictions were calculated, that's 24,76% of all games played (starting with 11th
round). Hitting rate of those predictions: 49,04%! Well, that's awfully low (like tossing a coin) -
my worst expectations come true. I was hoping for sth around 60-66%, but this really sucks.
Note that the statistics contains a certain error because of postponed games that I treated like
normal ones, but as far as I checked the date, that's only a small percentage in EPL.
ax13
15-10-07, 17:29
you can't add the number of goals scored and lost by teamt which play at home.
if they scored 9 goals in 5 matches home so the AVG is 1.8

if they lost 6 goals in 5 matches home so the AVG is 1.2
you can't count the AVG of (9+6)/5=3.0
why ? cause this avg depense of other teams which played with that MAIN HOME team.
the AVG 3.0 depenses on teams A, B, C , D , E which played matches with LUTON that time
when the Luton played home.
so in my opinion there is AVG 1.8 and 1.2 not 3.0
lol. if you calculate this way, you'll just be taking under 2.5 most of the matches.
anyway sic6sic, keep up the good work!
sic6sic
15-10-07, 17:57
lol. if you calculate this way, you'll just be taking under 2.5 most of the matches.
anyway sic6sic, keep up the good work!
Thanks man, hoping to get two more wins this evening :) we'll see.
Finally, the bad results of the weekend before are somewhat gone, now back to profit !
Very nice Sunday, just when I wrote the results are not fitting
06/07
That is, indeed, bad news.

If it is that low, we should leave the EPL for what it is, and don't touch it. I think this is a very
valuable lesson. Thanks a lot Azure for the loads of work. Are you going to do the other english
leagues too ?
yuvalfra
15-10-07, 19:15
06/07
First of all, thanks Azure for taking the time to back-track in your research. More info can never
be harmful. However, I am unsure of how exactly you calculated these stats?
Did you check only 5/5's that are over 1.60 in odd? Did you check only games that are after the
10-game mark? Did you check each time and back-track from that specific game? For example
if you had a match Newcastle-Southhampton in the 15th fixture did you check the stats of ALL
league data or only 14 past matches?
karnobat1
15-10-07, 21:12
looking for picks.
I think kranone say the true
yuvalfra
15-10-07, 23:00
looking for picks.
Uhhh...no.
sic6sic
15-10-07, 23:11
looking for picks.
hope you didn't listen to the 'truth' :) cuz it was a big OVERRRR
You should read the first pages more carefully!
2/2 today, nice :)

For tomorrow: no games that fit the system. So a bit of rest ;)
ricadao
15-10-07, 23:30
This is the very first time I try this and after reading a lot of what people said, here's the
over/under stats for today's MLS game:
Real Salt Lake - Houston Dynamo
Home Team:
14 Games / 18-21 Goals
Away Team:
STATS:
MIN - 2.42
MAX - 2.82
HOME AVG - 2.79
AWAY AVG - 2.46
MIN/MAX AVG - 2.62
5/5 on under (considering 3.0 the line)

Odds on under @ 10bet.com - 2.05
Now let's hope its correct
lOZ
16-10-07, 03:01
keep up the good work guys!!!
zidane10
16-10-07, 08:33
06/07
WOW! Great work... bad news though. but as yuvalfra asked, did you take like Newcastle-
United fixture 15 and check with the stats that were after fixture 14 for both teams or did you
count by tanking the ending stats of all teams and go with the same stats for all fixtures?
again, great work!

ricadao
16-10-07, 11:04
Not a bad start!
I use 10bet.com for the odds
All Stakes 100 EUR
INITIAL STATUS: 1.000 EUR
1) (15.10.2007) Real Salt Lake - Houston Dynamo PICK UNDER 2.5 @ 2.05 :D
FINAL STATUS: 1.105 EUR
This is the very first time I try this and after reading a lot of what people said, here's the
over/under stats for today's MLS game:
Real Salt Lake - Houston Dynamo
Home Team:
Away Team:
STATS:
MIN - 2.42
MAX - 2.82
HOME AVG - 2.79
AWAY AVG - 2.46
MIN/MAX AVG - 2.62

Odds on under @ 10bet.com - 2.05
Now let's hope its correct
salfordblues
16-10-07, 11:40
its supposed to be 5/5 on under/over 2.5 you didnt have that you considered the 3 goal line but
bet on under 2.5
Azure
16-10-07, 12:03
First of all, thanks Azure for taking the time to back-track in your research. More info can never
be harmful. However, I am unsure of how exactly you calculated these stats?
Did you check only 5/5's that are over 1.60 in odd? Did you check only games that are after the
10-game mark? Did you check each time and back-track from that specific game? For example
if you had a match Newcastle-Southhampton in the 15th fixture did you check the stats of ALL
league data or only 14 past matches?
The statistics includes every matchup that was a 5/5 regardless of the odds - which I don't have
anyway...BTW, is there a site where I can get them? If anyone knows, checking the odds of the
valid matches would be a relatively simple task now.
Rounds 1-10 are left out for the hitting% I posted, but I calculated them as well and strangely
there are even more correct predictions in that period!
About the data I used: it would have been very easy and especially fast ;) to use just the
complete season data, but I handled every match as a single event with the team data up to
that point of the season (for 15th round, I used the H/A-tables of the 14th round and so on). An
exception are the postponed matches I mentioned before - that's not only a problem for the one
match itself: f.ex. if a match of the 16th round is suspended till after 23d round, the goal
difference of the postponed match was not in the data "in reality" but I used it in the calculation
for rounds 17-23. So, as I said before, there is some error in the stats, but the number of such
matches in EPL is rather small.
That is, indeed, bad news.
If it is that low, we should leave the EPL for what it is, and don't touch it. I think this is a very
valuable lesson. Thanks a lot Azure for the loads of work. Are you going to do the other english
leagues too ?
I'm willing to do another league (with some routine, things get faster), but have not decided yet
which one to calculate. Checked the past few pages of the thread: sic6sic (engl.Conf,Germany)
and interbastian (Spain PD), are you calculating or did you skip it?
Some more details:

Hitting% per season (rd 11-38):
EPL 04/05: 47,62%
EPL 05/06: 53,13%
EPL 06/07: 46,91%
Slightly better for UNDERs than for OVERs: 51,09% - 45,07%
ricadao
16-10-07, 12:11
Maybe you're right. As a 3/5 I pick under as a value bet.
bet on under 2.5
sic6sic
16-10-07, 12:47
I'm willing to do another league (with some routine, things get faster), but have not decided yet
which one to calculate. Checked the past few pages of the thread: sic6sic (engl.Conf,Germany)
and interbastian (Spain PD), are you calculating or did you skip it?
I didn't skip it, i just don't have the time atm.

But i have some questions about the back-track?
1. How do you find out those games which were > 1.60 in the odds ?
2. How do you start with it ? Do you make up you own away/home - scored/conceived table,
based on the fixtures that were played ?
ricadao
16-10-07, 12:56
2) CHERBOURG - NIMES
Home Team:
6 Games / 5-3 Goals
Away Team:
6 Games / 3-9 Goals
STATS:
MIN - 1.33
MAX - 2.00
HOME AVG - 1.33
AWAY AVG - 1.33
MIN/MAX AVG - 1.67

Odds on under 2.25 @ 10bet.com - 1.82
salfordblues
16-10-07, 13:34
bet on under 2.5
correct me if i'm wrong but one of the requirements for this under/over stratergy is that you
need 5/5 for it to be a valid pick.
ricadao
16-10-07, 13:43
Unless you see some value on tendency...
But, ok, this was the first time, I had some luck. I made an Application to ease the analysis and
for now it returned the Div.3 French game as the only 5/5 today.
remember you should go for 3 or 4/5 IF odds really high (like 2.2 and above)
I wasn't the guy with the idea, I'm trying to use it :)
And, please, stop trying to analyse previous years, that won't prove a thing. You use it at your
own risk! The wheel had been invented thousands of years before... We are just trying to turn
math against bookies ;)
bet on under 2.5
correct me if i'm wrong but one of the requirements for this under/over stratergy is that you
need 5/5 for it to be a valid pick.
Azure
16-10-07, 14:21
???
Not sure that I catch what you mean by this.
Surely looking up past seasons can prove sth - why would you want to use a system when you
know because of the back-testing that the hitting percentage is similar to cointossing!? At odds
below even, that will produce no profit at all....
And since the first bet placed -be it based on a system or teamanalysis - every punter is acting
at own risk. What do you want to tell us?
You can turn maths against the bookies only if your calculations give you a definite edge. So far,
I don't see it here! But perhaps you have a prove that the system is producing positive results
in the long run - if that is the case, I'm sure everyone here would be glad if you'd be so kind to
share your knowledge!
btw: if I remember correctly, yuvalfra skipped the idea of the 3/5- and 4/5-value bets because
he came to the conclusion that they are not successful enough and he stated more than once
that he wants to rely only on 5/5 matches...
Azure
16-10-07, 14:27
1. I don't have the odds. It would be great if we could get them somewhere, but I don't have a
clue so far.
2. No, till now I didn't produce my own H/A-tables, but you got something there! That would
make things much more easy - I will try to include that in future calculations.
ricadao
16-10-07, 15:20
I read your post and in fact I'm not against you.
I admited already I had luck betting on first game but I'm glad I was right!
I only resume this way: I looked into so many different ways to "discover" the right bet and no
one until now proved me huge profit.
This is the very first method I simulate (and watch other people simulations) and collect profit.
personally, I truly believe in odd-variation method because there you can control better all the
people ideas and knowledge. You should check hot-odds.com if you haven't... The main problem
is with overs/unders you have two possibilities, a game have three...
???
sic6sic
16-10-07, 15:48
1. I don't have the odds. It would be great if we could get them somewhere, but I don't have a
clue so far.
2. No, till now I didn't produce my own H/A-tables, but you got something there! That would
make things much more easy - I will try to include that in future calculations.
How can you make the right calculations if you don't make up an HA - table ? I thought it was
neccessary for calculating old games in a right way. Or am i wrong ? What is your method Azure
?
yuvalfra
16-10-07, 16:15
???

The calculations don't give us a definite edge? So how do you explain the fact I trippled my
bank in just weeks. And how do you explain since around 3-4 weeks ago when the bet-picking
began (mainly by sic6sic) we have a hit-percentage of over 60%? Also my hit-percentage in
2004 was around 60% after over 100 matches. Luck? maybe. Chance? maybe. But nothing so
far has disproven the efficiency of this system, and I think we do have an edge. I don't know
why EPL produced only 50% hitting. Maybe there were errors? Maybe the average odd was 2?
Lower? Higher? It's all speculation. Without the odd, and without precise stats you can't
calculate anything.
Ricardo, I no longer support picking "value" bets. They aren't worth it on the long run.
sic6sic
16-10-07, 16:25
Here are the stats of my picks so far (51 picks).
I'll post them every 50 picks from now on:
http://www.rolus.be/stats.JPG
yuvalfra
16-10-07, 16:27
That's pretty damn impressive, sic6sic. Good work!
sic6sic
16-10-07, 16:43
That's pretty damn impressive, sic6sic. Good work!
lol, thanks for all the praise :D

i'll check tomorrows game within an hour, l8erz all !
ricadao
16-10-07, 17:28
I read from other guys that Value Bets have to be dropped :)
Many people trying to prove you're wrong, yuvalfra... But facts are facts and you trebled your
account as you said.
I will continue sharing my analysis of the games I bet.

I will believe this formula until it works. I spent two hours developing an application to import
directly results from copy-paste of overall tables to help me... That shows how do I believe in
this.
???
calculate anything.
Ricardo, I no longer support picking "value" bets. They aren't worth it on the long run.
sic6sic
16-10-07, 17:34
I spent two hours developing an application to import directly results from copy-paste of overall
tables to help me... That shows how do I believe in this.
Sounds interesting :idea: :D
Tomorrow
No games for the system (fkn european chamionships :o )
Thursday
Los Angeles - New York (Over 2.5)

2,86 - 3,71 - 3,43 - 3,14 - 3,29
Status:
Current picks: 0W - 0L - 1O (00.00% Accuracy)
Total: 29W - 22L - 1O (56.86% Accuracy)

ricadao
16-10-07, 18:04
Here's another one for today
3) BRASILIENSE - BARUERI
min 2,80
max 3,33
home avg 2,80
away avg 2,80
min/max 3,07
5/5 on over (considering 2.75 the line)
Odds on over 2.75 @ 10bet.com - 1.73
Azure
16-10-07, 18:23
@yuvalfra
Before we continue with the discussion, let me make this clear: I am posting calculations and
arguments in this thread because I like your idea and I hope that it will provide steady success,
otherwise I wouldn't have done all the work with the stats. But I am no blind follower, especially
not based on only a couple of positive weeks. I am not offending you, I am questioning the
performance of the system and I do that because of the best reason any punter can have:
profit! It should be in your own interest to gather as much information as possible, even if it
speaks against your system! I would have been very happy with a better result in the past EPL-
seasons, too. I cannot understand why you are so vehemently insisting that the back-testing is
of no use. Last week I asked you: "...Besides, if you really think that the past is of no relevance
here, why do you wait for certain leagues to get playable? It should be of no interest to you
which league you bet on, because they all start at zero at the beginning of a new season!?"
Sadly, you didn't answer to that...
calculate anything.First, you said that the back-testing is of no use due to seasonal changes, an
argument that is of some importance, but goes directly against your own pure mathematical
approach. Then you wanted to know the calculation-method I used for EPL (I stated all that
before). And now it's the odds. I can very well calculate sth, even w/o the odds. I said on
several occasions that the back-testing contains a certain amount of error and I don't get the
exact results, but I think it's quite near to it.
How do you decide if a system is good or bad? -You test it for some period of time and then
take a look at the results. And in betting that period of time should definitely be longer than our
documented experience so far. I can only repeat: we don't know, we assume that it works!
Two/three months of success is nice but doesn't necessarily indicate a longterm profit. That
remains to be seen - or to be tracked down in past seasons in order to speed things up and get
a glimpse of what is to be expected, especially w/o any financial risk.
...and everyone can triple up a bankroll in weeks when you have a winning streak. I am talking
about longterm profit - there's no prove of that so far.
That's pretty damn impressive, sic6sic. Good work!No it's not. The calculating and daily work
which sic6sic is contributing is indeed impressive, but not the results of the system: 51 picks
and overall a loss.
I say all this with a big SO FAR! Two very important words around here! :D
Cheers.
ps_@ricadao: there are not many people trying to prove yuvalfra wrong. In fact nobody is trying
to prove yuvalfra wrong - you should read correctly what is posted.
ricadao
16-10-07, 18:46
Azure, every opinion counts here, no matter if you're optimistic or pessimistic. That's why this
topic have 48 pages so far.
I admire your research but I'll keep trying it until I discover it's not working.
I read so many different methods so far (even I tried once to get one) and, I repeat, this is the
best so far.
There's another thing that changes time to time... The way bookers calculate the odds. We're
not talking about it. How do they manage to find out the magic number?
Azure
16-10-07, 18:48
? I didn't need to make my own HA-table, I just checked it in the net...
yuvalfra
16-10-07, 19:00
Azure, I don't understand why you took such a defensive approach. I was not attacking, but
merely trying to understand how you did your research. If it's all legit and correct then ofcourse
it's of much use to us and as I said beofre more information is never harmful. In other words,
(and as I said before), THANKS for your effort. I think it's very useful and relevant.
By the way, when I said back-tracking is of no relevance it was when you presented the idea to
back-track a year in the past in orfer to place bets on PRESENT encounters. That's why I said
it's not relevant. Back-tracking as you did now with the EPL is VERY relevant and VERY useful.
Honestly my friend, I don't think it is possible that after 300-400 picks the percentage remains
positive and it is a coincidence. I think it was a person named Bell that found that in statistics, a
success rate is matched after 30 tries/events. I honestly think it's almost certain that on the
long-term you will make profit using the system. The question is how much? Is it worth it on the
long run? I mean, if you calculate games every day and a month later your bank is +50 USD
then ofcourse it's useless. However, I think that with a bank of a few thousand USD, if you bet
consistantly and on all games at the end of the month you could make a salary of your
winnings. Call me blind, and eventhough I'm as skeptic as anyone, there's something in the
system that just screams success. The simplicity, the accuracy, the plain idea is all on the
positive side.
Good luck!
alzwei
16-10-07, 19:14
? I didn't need to make my own HA-table, I just checked it in the net...
Can you explain, how did you do it. I started to make the German I. But first I am
reconstructing the tables week by week and it is really time consuming. I spent more than 10
hours reconstructing the season 2004/2005 and I am only half way.
Ps. ricadao nobody try to proof yuvalfra wrong, just the opposite we try to do hard work and
check if it had worked by checking the previous seasons because we have hope it works
Azure
16-10-07, 20:16
Ugh, oh god no, alzwei! Why are you reconstructing it and not only check the H/A-tables in the
net? I used www.weltfussball.de . Tons of leagues and seasons there with all the data. And I
bet, there are more sites like that out there - it was just the first one I stumbled upon....And for
the matchups of the rounds, I use www.soccerstats.com . Go to "Historical stats" - Germany
"2005" - scroll down to League menu and click on Matches "All". Now you should see the
complete season results. Mark round 1-34 and copy/paste it in EXCEL (probably with some
"cosmetic" changes (tabs) in WORD before, so it fits in the right columns - depends what your
sheet looks like....). Now you have the complete schedule and can begin to roam through the
H/A-tables round by round - with some routine that goes more or less quickly. Wow, man -
calculating every single table!! F*ck, you must be hating footie by now! Now I see what the
problem is - sic6sic, was that your question, too? Then I didn't understand you correctly before,
sorry....
ricadao
16-10-07, 20:51
Bet failed at end of first half.
2 Picks, 1 Win, 1 Lost ( +5 EUR)
2) CHERBOURG - NIMES
Home Team:
6 Games / 5-3 Goals
Away Team:
6 Games / 3-9 Goals
STATS:
MIN - 1.33
MAX - 2.00
HOME AVG - 1.33
AWAY AVG - 1.33
MIN/MAX AVG - 1.67

Odds on under 2.25 @ 10bet.com - 1.82
Azure
16-10-07, 21:04
Azure, every opinion counts here, no matter if you're optimistic or pessimistic. That's why this
topic have 48 pages so far.
I am not pessimistic - I am here because I am (still) optimistic, but unfortunately the EPL-test
was bad; so what should I do? Not post it? :)
I admire your research but I'll keep trying it until I discover it's not working.
Me too, perhaps with some modifications...
I read so many different methods so far (even I tried once to get one) and, I repeat, this is the
best so far.
Agreed, almost...
There's another thing that changes time to time... The way bookers calculate the odds. We're
not talking about it. How do they manage to find out the magic number?
Yeah, probably the same way we calculate here....;)
edit: what's your source of data, ricadao?
@yuvalfra: I am defensive minded in this, because after you've been around for a while in
bettingforums, some day you think you've seen it all, systems come and go and the ones that
produce profit in the long run (several seasons!) are very rare. The longer a testing period is,
the fewer are the succcessful systems. So, a good phase of some weeks or so is nothing that
convinces me anymore, it's no proof. You had good experiences with this and you are right:
there is something that screams success....that's the reason why we are here: there is a
positive start and the idea sounds reasonable. I hope that it's not only a start but a steady
process to win. I have no intention to prove you wrong. Actually, I hope to participate in proving
you right in the end. But when I come up with arguments that don't fit to the expectations, I
just can't help it....
alzwei
16-10-07, 21:38
Ugh, oh god no, alzwei! Why are you reconstructing it and not only check the H/A-tables in the
net? I used www.weltfussball.de . Tons of leagues and seasons there with all the data. And I
bet, there are more sites like that out there - it was just the first one I stumbled upon....And for
the matchups of the rounds, I use www.soccerstats.com . Go to "Historical stats" - Germany
"2005" - scroll down to League menu and click on Matches "All". Now you should see the
complete season results. Mark round 1-34 and copy/paste it in EXCEL (probably with some
"cosmetic" changes (tabs) in WORD before, so it fits in the right columns - depends what your
sheet looks like....). Now you have the complete schedule and can begin to roam through the
H/A-tables round by round - with some routine that goes more or less quickly. Wow, man -
calculating every single table!! F*ck, you must be hating footie by now! Now I see what the
problem is - sic6sic, was that your question, too? Then I didn't understand you correctly before,
sorry....
Yes I am using the soccerway and you can get the same list with all games played and results.
But still I must calculate at each match, how much every team scored and concieved before that
speciefic match, and that is really the time consuming part.
Azure
16-10-07, 21:44
alzwei, check www.weltfussball.de , there are H/A-tables for every single round. You don't have
to construct that by yourself.
alzwei
16-10-07, 22:07
alzwei, check www.weltfussball.de , there are H/A-tables for every single round. You don't have
to construct that by yourself.
But it is only german language, can you advise a little how to find the round by round infos. it
will be great help.
Azure
16-10-07, 22:23
here you go:
click on "Bundesliga" -
"Ergebnisse & Tabelle" (=results & table) -
select correct season in dropdown-menu, then "GO" -
select correct Spieltag (=round) in dropdown-menu, then "GO" -
"Heimtabelle" (=home table) or "Auswärtstabelle"(=away table)
alzwei
16-10-07, 22:57
here you go:
This is great.. thanks alot, reconstructing was a folish boring idea
interbastian
17-10-07, 00:33
Hi all! I've been real busy with my studies lately and analyzing world cup and European
Championship qualifiers but I'm glad there has been lot of activity on the thread.
It is very useful to know that the strategy has not worked well on the English Premiership the
last three seasons this allow us to assume it will probably not do very well in the future either.
Great work Azure!
I am also happy to find out that the opposition of yuvalfra to back-tracking was due to the
misunderstanding that the back-tracking results were to find 5/5 games in current season.
This was never my idea, and I think it is safe to say not Azure's either.
Now your reasoning makes sense to me, yuvalfra.
Azure, I have not done the back tracking on La Liga yet, have been lazy. Feel with you on your
computer crash. Do you use Microsoft operating system? They are quite unreliable soon I am
going to switch completely to Ubuntu a Linux based operating system.
sic6sic you do a excellent job in finding picks, good on ya! I have not bet on all picks yet as I
have not a big enough bank. But soon I will have a go at this seriously.
Thank's Interbastian...............................66% is with my formula but I, actually, don't know if
use Head/Head or not....................this is the problem. What do you think?
Mau_rino I have not understood your modification completely yet. Thought that one of few thing
i did understand was that you use head to head, but now you say that you are not sure?
Please explain your modifications to the strategy again to me.
Mau_rino
17-10-07, 09:14
I have introduced only two changes to the excellent Yuvalfra method:
- The average are fixed in -1,80 (Under)/+ 3,20 (Over)
- Head to head in the last years between the two teams but, on this second point have some
doubt because, really, how Yuvalfra says, for a year to the other many things have changed:
trainers, game tacticses etc. etc..
ricadao
17-10-07, 11:03
Bet failed.
3 Picks, 1 Win, 2 Lost ( -95 EUR)
Here's another one for today
3) BRASILIENSE - BARUERI
min 2,80
max 3,33
home avg 2,80
away avg 2,80
min/max 3,07
5/5 on over (considering 2.75 the line)

Odds on over 2.75 @ 10bet.com - 1.73
sic6sic
18-10-07, 01:55
Friday
Los Angeles - New York (Over 2.5) @ 1.7 :(

2,86 - 3,71 - 3,43 - 3,14 - 3,29
Stade Brestois - AC Ajaccio (Under 2.5) @ 1.63 :D

0,80 - 1,80 1,80 0,80 - 1,30
Chateauroux - Sedan-Ardennes (Under 2.5) @1.65 :D

1,80 - 2,20 - 2,00 - 2,00 - 2,00
Clermont Foot - Angers (Under 2.5) @ 1.62 :D

1,50 - 2,20 - 1,50 - 2,20 - 1,85
Bray - Galway United (Under 2.5) @ 1.7 :D

1,93 - 2,21 - 2,21 - 1,93 - 2,07
MVV Maastricht - HFC Haarlem (Over 2.5) @ 1.67 :(

2,67 - 3,00 - 2,83 - 2,83 - 2,83
Groclin - Lech Posnan (Over 2.5) @ 1.94 :(

2,75 - 3,00 - 2,75 - 3,00 - 2,88
Status:

Current bank: 189.5. Units (5.25% Loss)
alzwei
18-10-07, 13:40
06/07
I got the German I 2004/2005 ready
I used only games when both teams played at least 5 matches and only those fit the criteria 5/5
and the results are:
under 4 matches 1 hit 25%

over 81 matches 47 hits 58%
total 85 matches 48 hits 56.47%
ricadao
18-10-07, 16:30
58% not good :(
I'm trying to use two different lines, now: 5/5 1,90 for under, 5/5 3,10 for over...
With this I only selected 5 games from sic6sic list...
06/07

Azure
18-10-07, 16:57
Hey, alzwei!
Good work, I hope the calculating goes quick, now that you don't do the HA-tables manually
anymore.
Looks like Ger1 was an "over"-league in that season.
I bump up two questions:

sic6sic, did I answer your HA-table question or is still sth unclear?
ricadao, what's your source of data for the calculation?
alzwei
18-10-07, 17:26
Hey, alzwei!
anymore.

Yes.. much easier and faster altough they have some problems because they have the postpond
match calculated in the round in which originally were supposed to be played, but still usefull
and I do not think it did effect much, I was getting crazy reconstructing tables :)
58% not good :(
I'm trying to use two different lines, now: 5/5 1,90 for under, 5/5 3,10 for over...
With this I only selected 5 games from sic6sic list...
06/07

I do not think it is bad, it depends mainly on the odds. if the odds are 2 or more as usual with
overs, then there was a nice profit there. the picture will be clearer when caculating the other
seasons, I hope the result will be at least as positive, otherwise it will be lost good time.
sic6sic
18-10-07, 18:40
Hey, alzwei!
anymore.

still unclear ... you only get the full table (at the end of the season) on the internet. Or not ?
Azure
18-10-07, 18:57
?
Like I told alzwei a couple of posts back: check www.weltfussball.de
You get HA-tables for every single round there....
alzwei
18-10-07, 19:44
Hey, alzwei!
anymore.

You get the tables round by round, by going to this site www.weltfussball.de and just following
these steps:
Mau_rino
18-10-07, 23:06
Tonight:
- New York - Los Angeles Over
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Next week-end:
-Colchester - West B. Over
-Sheffield - Preston Over
-Barnsley - Burnley Over
-Messina - Ascoli Under
-Hearth - Dundee Over
-Ried - Lask Linz Over
-Aston V. - Manchester Utd Under
-Westerlo - Roeselare Under
-Olimpo - Banfield Under
-Dc United - Columbus Over
-Frem - Lolland Over
-Southampton - Cardiff Over
-Raufoss - Haugesund Over
-Sirius - Orgryte Over

-Crotone -Sangiovannese Under (Italy C1)
-Hannover - Wolfsburg Over
-Independiente - San Lorenzo Over
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total: W3-L0.
sic6sic
19-10-07, 16:54
Tonight:
- New York - Los Angeles Over
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Next week-end:
-Colchester - West B. Over
-Sheffield - Preston Over
-Barnsley - Burnley Over
-Messina - Ascoli Under
-Hearth - Dundee Over
-Ried - Lask Linz Over
-Aston V. - Manchester Utd Under
-Westerlo - Roeselare Under
-Olimpo - Banfield Under
-Dc United - Columbus Over
-Frem - Lolland Over
-Southampton - Cardiff Over
-Raufoss - Haugesund Over
-Sirius - Orgryte Over
-Crotone -Sangiovannese Under (Italy C1)
-Hannover - Wolfsburg Over
-Independiente - San Lorenzo Over
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total: W3-L0.
italy leagues are still under 10 games played, so no bets for the system !
pryda
19-10-07, 17:55
Friday
Los Angeles - New York (Over 2.5) @ 1.7

2,86 - 3,71 - 3,43 - 3,14 - 3,29
Stade Brestois - AC Ajaccio (Under 2.5)

0,80 - 1,80 1,80 0,80 - 1,30
Chateauroux - Sedan-Ardennes (Under 2.5)

1,80 - 2,20 - 2,00 - 2,00 - 2,00
Clermont Foot - Angers (Under 2.5)

1,50 - 2,20 - 1,50 - 2,20 - 1,85
ASK Schwadorf - SC Parndorf (Over 2.5)

3,50 - 4,33 - 4,17 - 3,67 - 3,92
Schwanenstadt - Red Bull Salzburg II (Over 2.5)

3,50 - 4,00 - 4,00 - 3,50 - 3,75
Bray - Galway United (Under 2.5)

1,93 - 2,21 - 2,21 - 1,93 - 2,07
Derry City - Bohemians Dublin (Under 2.5)

1,29 - 1,87 - 1,87 - 1,29 - 1,58
AGOVV Apeldoorn - FC Eindhoven (Over 2.5)

3,67 - 4,67 - 4,67 - 3,67 - 4,17
FC Emmen - FC Zwolle (Over 2.5)

2,67 - 3,00 - 2,67 - 3,00 - 2,83
Go Ahead Eagles Deventer - FC Omniworld Almere (Over 2.5)

2,83 - 4,00 - 3,67 - 3,17 - 3,42
MVV Maastricht - HFC Haarlem (Over 2.5)

2,67 - 3,00 - 2,83 - 2,83 - 2,83
RKC Waalwijk - BV Veendam (Over 2.5)

3,00 - 4,33 - 4,33 - 3,00 - 3,67
Groclin - Lech Posnan (Over 2.5)

2,75 - 3,00 - 2,75 - 3,00 - 2,88
Status:

My only pick is Groclin - Lech for tonight. I couldn't find any other suitable because of the odds.
Especially in Holand's Gids. More of the games are over but the odds aren't higher than ~1.4
(checked in 5+ bookies). Where did you find odds higher than 1.6?
Mau_rino
19-10-07, 20:57
For Sic6sic
I consider 8 games played not 10..............................................
sic6sic
20-10-07, 00:43
Saturday
Barnsley - Burnley (Over 2.5) @ 2.04 :(

3,00 - 3,60 - 3,40 - 3,20 - 3,30
Colchester - West Bromwich (Over 2.5) @ 1.76 :D

3,20 - 4,00 - 4,00 - 3,20 - 3,60
Norwich - Bristol City (Under 2.5) @ 1,74 :(

1,60 - 1,80 - 1,60 - 1,80 - 1,70
Sheffield United - Preston North End (Over 2.5) @ 1.87 :(

3,00 - 3,60 - 3,60 - 3,00 - 3,30
Olimpo Bahia Blanca - CA Banfield (Under 2.5) :D

1,52 - 2,00 - 1,86 - 1,67 - 1,76
RB Salzburg - Sturm Graz (Over 2.5) :D

2,55 - 4,29 - 3,00 - 3,83 - 3,42
SV Ried - LASK Linz (Over 2.5) :D

3,14 - 3,50 - 3,14 - 3,50 - 3,32
Jubilo Iwata - Kashima Antlers (Over 2.5) @ 1.63 :D

2,57 - 3,00 - 2,93 - 2,64 - 2,79
Walsall - Southend (Over 2.5) @ 2,04 :(

2,60 - 3,20 - 2,60 - 3,20 - 2,90
Bradford - Darlington (Under 2.5) @ 1.84 :D

1,40 - 2,40 - 2,00 - 1,80 - 1,90
Aldershot Town - Halifax (Over 2.5) @ 1.78 :(

2,88 - 3,50 - 3,25 - 3,13 - 3,19
Cambridge - Salisbury (Over 2.5) @ 1.75 :(

2,75 - 3,63 - 2,75 - 3,63 - 3,19
Forest Green - Farsley Celtic (Over 2.5) @ 1,7 :D

3,38 - 4,50 - 4,50 - 3,38 - 3,94
Kidderminster - Weymouth (Over 2.5) @ 1.86 :(

3,00 - 3,38 - 3,25 - 3,13 - 3,19
Oxford - Woking (Over 2.5) @ 2,02 :(

2,88 - 3,25 - 3,25 - 2,88 - 3,06
Botafogo - Sport Recife (Over 2.5) :D

2,60 - 3,13 - 3,13 - 2,60 - 2,87
Palmeiras - Parana (Over 2.5) :D

2,53 - 3,40 - 2,60 - 3,33 - 2,97
Auxerre - Lorient (Under 2.5) @ 1.68 :(

1,80 - 2,00 - 1,80 - 2,00 - 1,90
Caen - Lille (Over 2.5) @ 2,48 :(
2,60 - 2,80 - 2,80 - 2,60 - 2,70
Nice - Metz (Under 2.5) @ 1.66 :(

1,60 - 1,80 - 1,80 - 1,60 - 1,70
Strasbourg - Bordeaux (Under 2.5) @ 1.61 :D

0,60 - 2,20 - 1,40 - 1,40 - 1,40
IFK Mariehamn - HJK Helsinki (Under 2.5) @ 1.9 :D

2,00 - 2,27 - 2,00 - 2,27 - 2,14
FC Honka - FC Kooteepee (Under 2.5) @ 2.03 :D

1,91 - 2,36 - 1,91 - 2,36 - 2,14
TP 47 - Atlantis FC (Under 2.5) @ 1.9 :D

2,08 - 2,33 - 2,17 - 2,25 - 2,21
Status:

alzwei
20-10-07, 14:49
06/07

and now I got the German I 2005/2006 calculated.

total 61 matches 32 hits 52%
The results started to look like the ELP, very disappointing.
:(
Azure
20-10-07, 15:53
Good & bad news, mates! Update of the testrun:
France, L1
03/04 - 55,00 %
04/05 - 62,42 %
05/06 - 65,75 %
06/07 - 61,74 %
Ahh, that's much better! At least the last three years would have been profitable. I will have a
look at 02/03, to see if 03/04 was just one bad year.
England, Conference
06/07 - 44,21 %
Ouch! Just when things started to improve, there comes the next hit in the stomach - less than
45% ...,and for Conference, which seemed so good!? Will dig some seasons deeper here....
Testing-summary:
I eliminated the "postponed"-error by running the test chronologically instead of round by
round. That way, we have exact data now, except the missing odds. Hitting% is based on all
matches in which home-and awayteam played >=5 matches (H/A). I did a recalc of the EPL
with the optimized method and added one more season, so the numbers differ a bit from the
earlier post.
ecf - 06/07 - 44,21 %

epl - 03/04 - 45,00 %
epl - 04/05 - 46,88 %
epl - 05/06 - 50,00 %
epl - 06/07 - 46,84 %
fra1 - 03/04 - 55,00 %
fra1 - 04/05 - 62,42 %
fra1 - 05/06 - 65,75 %
fra1 - 06/07 - 61,74 %
ger1 - 04/05 - 56,47 % (pp-error)
ger1 - 05/06 - 52,00 % (pp-error)
Thx, alzwei!
...back to work. Cheers!
sic6sic
20-10-07, 16:09
06/07

and now I got the German I 2005/2006 calculated.
total 61 matches 32 hits 52%
The results started to look like the ELP, very disappointing.
:(
that is, indeed, again, very disappointing news :(
sic6sic
21-10-07, 00:56
Again, a very bad saturday, hopefully a better day tomorrow ...
Sunday
Southampton - Cardiff (Over 2.5) @ 1,71

3,40 - 4,40 - 4,40 - 3,40 - 3,90
York - Torquay (Over 2.5) @ 1.63

3,50 - 5,00 - 3,50 - 5,00 - 4,25
Independiente - San Lorenzo (Over 2.5) @ 1,92

2,86 - 4,00 - 3,86 - 3,00 - 3,43
Nautico - Corinthians (Over 2.5) @ 1,7

3,00 - 3,27 - 3,27 - 3,00 - 3,13
Sao Paulo - Cruzeiro (Over 2.5) @ 1,86

2,60 - 3,40 - 2,60 - 3,40 - 3,00
Figueirense - Santos (Over 2.5) @ 1,85

2,60 - 3,07 - 3,07 - 2,60 - 2,83
Brondby - AGF Aarhus (Under 2.5) @ 1,95

1,83 - 2,33 - 2,17 - 2,00 - 2,08
Cruz Azul - Jaguares (Over 2.5) @ 1,88

2,83 - 3,17 - 3,00 - 3,00 - 3,00
Grampus Eight - FC Tokyo (Over 2.5) @ 1,73

3,14 - 3,64 - 3,14 - 3,64 - 3,39
FC Viikingit - FC Inter (Over 2.5) @ 2,04

2,70 - 3,33 - 3,27 - 2,75 - 3,01
DC United - Columbus (Over 2.5) @ 1,69

3,16 - 3,90 - 3,86 - 3,20 - 3,53
Lyn - Valerenga (Over 2.5) @ 1,7

2,55 - 3,45 - 3,45 - 2,55 - 3,00
Amkar Perm - Spartak Nalchik (Over 2.5) @ 2,34

2,54 - 2,77 - 2,54 - 2,77 - 2,65
Dinamo Moscow - Kuban Krasnodar (Under 2.5) @ 1,82

1,58 - 2,23 - 2,23 - 1,58 - 1,91
Status:

whyc
21-10-07, 11:28
Saturday
2,08 - 2,33 - 2,17 - 2,25 - 2,21
This one is a losing bet, it finished 2-2!
sic6sic
21-10-07, 12:09
Saturday
2,08 - 2,33 - 2,17 - 2,25 - 2,21
This one is a losing bet, it finished 2-2!
no it didn't.
Flashscore says a 1-1, and i got it already credited on my account.
Azure
21-10-07, 13:38
Hey, sic6sic. Did you play only the matches where you posted odds or all of them (Sat)?
With the current hitting%, we need avg odds of around 1,8 to break even - problem is: if we
raise the min odds limit, the hitting% might drop even more.
New update of test results soon. c ya.
sic6sic
21-10-07, 14:31
Hey, sic6sic. Did you play only the matches where you posted odds or all of them (Sat)?
With the current hitting%, we need avg odds of around 1,8 to break even - problem is: if we
raise the min odds limit, the hitting% might drop even more.
New update of test results soon. c ya.
i only played those where i posted the odds. Those i didn't post the odds (most of the time i
posted them the first time), it is because of the low odds, so non applicable for the system. I
agree, current percentage is fkn low :(
whyc
21-10-07, 14:52
no it didn't.
Yes it did ;)
http://www.miestenykkonen.fi/taustasivut/artikkeliarkisto/?num=13576
I hope your bookie won't see this! Unfortunately, my bookie has the correct result :(
sic6sic
21-10-07, 15:51
no it didn't.
Yes it did ;)
http://www.miestenykkonen.fi/taustasivut/artikkeliarkisto/?num=13576
I hope your bookie won't see this! Unfortunately, my bookie has the correct result :(
lol, lucky me :D
Azure
21-10-07, 17:24
Update. Adding fra02/03, ecf05/06 and Brazil.
Nice that french 02/03 was better again. England seems to be one big nobet, but still CS, L1
and L2 to check. Brazil better, especially the current season (yesterday two hits - today three
possible plays).
Brazil
Serie A
04 - 65,00 %
05 - 59,01 %
06 - 55,43 %
07 - 62,50 % (in progress, 31 of 38 rounds played)
England
EPL
03/04 - 45,00 %
04/05 - 46,88 %
05/06 - 50,00 %
06/07 - 46,84 %
Conference
05/06 - 44,74 %
06/07 - 44,21 %
France
Ligue1
02/03 - 59,84 %
03/04 - 55,00 %
04/05 - 62,42 %
05/06 - 65,75 %
06/07 - 61,74 %
Germany
BL1
04/05 - 56,47 % (pp-error)
05/06 - 52,00 % (pp-error)
yuvalfra
21-10-07, 19:45
Nice, french league 1 was always very generous with me...
I assume your calculations conclude (as I thought in the beggining) that not all leagues are fond
of our strategy...However I still believe a good hit-percentage can be reached without any
selection of leagues. We will see....
Good work Azure.
Azure
21-10-07, 21:23
Good work Azure.
thx, yuvalfra. If you would like to know the stats of a certain league you have special interest in,
I'll do it. I did Brazil because I had the impression that the system is performing quite well there
(an impression I had with Conf, too :D....). I think, you once mentioned, that Denmark was
pretty good...?
sic6sic
22-10-07, 00:10
bad bad bad bad weekend :(
i'll post results after a long sleep :oops:
yuvalfra
22-10-07, 00:10
Good work Azure.
thx, yuvalfra. If you would like to know the stats of a certain league you have special interest in,
I'll do it. I did Brazil because I had the impression that the system is performing quite well there
(an impression I had with Conf, too :D....). I think, you once mentioned, that Denmark was
pretty good...?
I had good success with the danish league, however didn't bet many games there.
Mau_rino
22-10-07, 09:11
Tonight:
- New York - Los Angeles Over..................... :(
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Next week-end:
-Colchester - West B. Over...................... :D
-Sheffield - Preston Over...................................... :(
-Barnsley - Burnley Over...................................... :(
-Messina - Ascoli Under..................................... :D
-Hearth - Dundee Over....................................... :D
-Ried - Lask Linz Over....................................... :D
-Aston V. - Manchester Utd Under..................... :(
-Westerlo - Roeselare Under..................................... :(
-Olimpo - Banfield Under..................................... :D
-Dc United - Columbus Over...................... :D
-Frem - Lolland Over...................................... :(
-Southampton - Cardiff Over...................... :(
-Raufoss - Haugesund Over...................................... :D
-Sirius - Orgryte Over...................................... :D
-Crotone -Sangiovannese Under (Italy C1)..... :(
-Hannover - Wolfsburg Over...................... :D
-Independiente - San Lorenzo Over................ :D

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current picks: 10W-8L (55,55%)

Total picks: 13W-8L (61,90%)
pryda
22-10-07, 14:48
Monday:
Midtjylland FC - : - Esbjerg FB [OVER] ;)
Nitra - : - Senec [UNDER] ;)
Le Havre - : - Amiens [UNDER] :oops:
Bohemians Dublin - : - UCD Dublin [UNDER] ;)
Cork City - : - St. Patrick's Athletic [UNDER] ;)
Hull - : - Barnsley [OVER] ;)
-------
Nice evening. I shouldn't play any matches in weekends :( The five-day week is more generous
to me.
My Status: 19W - 13L (59,375%)
sic6sic
23-10-07, 00:14
Today i played only 2 games, didn't had the time to place bets/calculate more ...
Cork - St Patricks (Under 2.5) @ 1.68

1,64 - 2,42 - 2,00 - 2,07 - 2,03
Bohemians Dublin - UCD Dublin (Under 2.5) @ 1,88

1,61 - 2,25 - 1,87 - 2,00 - 1,93
Status:


sic6sic
23-10-07, 00:21
Indeed pryda, the weekends are no good lately.
Friday is always very good, saturday shitty and sunday somewhat even.
Anyway, we just go on, try to get things right :D.
102 picks played, and as i said before, i'll post stats ever +- 50 picks played, so ...
http://www.rolus.be/stats.JPG
Last weekend just demolished the good result i got on the conference league, only a 47.06%
left of it, also the Championship League is a big disaster :( :oops:
Two of my favorites already are the Sweden Superettan and the Ireland Premier League, very
very correct predictions over there.
sic6sic
23-10-07, 00:54
Tuesday
Austria Wien Am - DSV Leoben (Over 2.5) @ 1.64 :D

3,33 - 4,33 - 3,33 - 4,33 - 3,83
Coventry City - Watford FC (Over 2.5) @ 2.02 :D

2,80 - 3,40 - 2,80 - 3,40 - 3,10
Wednesday
Cardiff City - Wolverhampton Wanderers (Under 2.5) @ 1,8 :(

2,00 - 2,40 - 2,40 - 2,00 - 2,20
Bristol City - Southampton FC (Over 2.5) @ 1,86 :D

3,00 - 4,00 - 3,00 - 4,00 - 3,50
VPS Vaasa - Viikingit Helsinki (Under 2.5) @ 1.72 :D

1,75 - 2,25 - 1,75 - 2,25 - 2,00
TPS Turku - FF Jaro Pietarsaari (Over 2.5) @ 1.72 :(

3,17 - 3,83 - 3,17 - 3,83 - 3,50
KooTeePee Kotka - Tampere United (Over 2.5) @ 1.83 :D

2,67 - 3,00 - 2,92 - 2,75 - 2,83
FC Honka Espoo - Inter Turku (Under 2.5) @ 1.78 :(

1,75 - 2,00 - 1,75 - 2,00 - 1,88
Status:


pryda
23-10-07, 11:37
Same picks for these two days except Kotka TP vs. Tampere United. I got these stats:
Kotka: 18-17-12
Tampere: 15-12-11
Home Overall: 2,916666667
Away Overall: 2,454545455
MAX: 2,916666667
MIN: 2,454545455
AVG: 2,685606061
So my calculations are saying "dont play it dude" :)
sic6sic
23-10-07, 13:42
Same picks for these two days except Kotka TP vs. Tampere United. I got these stats:
Kotka: 18-17-12
Tampere: 15-12-11
Home Overall: 2,916666667
Away Overall: 2,454545455
MAX: 2,916666667
MIN: 2,454545455
AVG: 2,685606061
So my calculations are saying "dont play it dude" :)
strange, i did a recalc and get the same values as before. Anyway, i already picked it now and
putted on my stake :o we'll see
Azure
23-10-07, 14:16
Tampere United is 18-15-12 away, not 15-12-11. Match is valid.
pryda
23-10-07, 16:37
My mistake. Or more sfstats mistake ;) However. I checked it in two different sources and the
match is valid. You're both right.
pryda
25-10-07, 10:33
Home United - Young Lions, this should be over but my bookie does not offer U/O :o If you find
odd's for over higher than 1.6 then go for it.
Update: Result: 1-2 ;)
pryda
26-10-07, 15:53
Friday 26.10:
St. Pauli - : - Wehen SV [OVER] :oops:

Mainz - : - FC Augsburg [OVER] :oops:
Belchatow - : - Lodz LKS [UNDER] ;)
Amiens - : - Chateauroux [UNDER] :oops:
Ajaccio - : - Bastia [OVER] ;)
Rapid Wien - : - LASK Linz [OVER] ;)
Gent - : - Mons [OVER] :oops:
----------------------------------------
My status: 26W - 20L [56,52% accuracy]
pryda
29-10-07, 12:03
Monday 29.10:
Aalborg BK - : - Esbjerg FB [OVER]

Crystal Palace - : - Watford [OVER]
Azure
30-10-07, 13:29
Well, it sure got quite in here!
Right now this is not working and the past doesn't indicate much better overall hitting%. Back
tracking and sic6sic's+pryda's current records all show disappointing results. Assuming an avg
hitting% of 55 -which seems realistic atm-, the avg odds have to be 1,82 to break even. Looks
problematic. Even the rather high percentage of France won't help much coz lines are too bad
there...
I will continue building my database and try some modifications, but don't have much time left
atm.
yuvalfra, are you starting to bet now in the big leagues?
sic6sic
30-10-07, 13:55
i'm back, after a small vacation and some internet problems over here, i'm hoping for better
days, cuz thing have gone very bad lately :(
i've started to check todays games, nothing ...
For the other days i got the following results:
Wednesday
Atletico PR - Gremio Porto Alegre (Under 2.5)

2,00 - 2,44 - 2,44 - 2,00 - 2,22
Atletico Mineiro - Parana Curtiba (Over 2.5)

3,00 - 3,63 - 3,31 - 3,31 - 3,31
Grasshoppers Zurich - FC Luzern - (Over 2.5)

2,67 - 3,67 - 2,67 - 3,67 - 3,17
FC Sion - FC Basel (Over 2.5)

2,83 - 3,86 - 2,83 - 3,86 - 3,35
FC St Gallen - FC Zurich (Over 2.5)

2,67 - 3,43 - 3,43 - 2,67 - 3,05
Status:


pryda
31-10-07, 13:03
Yesterday (30.10):
Lecce 1 : 1 Grosseto [UNDER] ;)

Treviso 2 : 1 Frosinone [UNDER] :oops:
Bologna - Ascoli [UNDER] P-P
Mantova 4 : 1 Cesena [UNDER] :oops:
Today (31.10):
In addition to sic6sic post:
HNK Sibenik - : - Zadar [OVER] :oops:

Flamengo -:- Corinthians [OVER] ;)
------------
Im using this strategy since round 3 weeks. Im not charmed by now. But here's what i saw:
My UNDER status: 11W - 7L (61,1% accuracy)

And till yesterday the percentage was higher. I'll keep and eye on under games. May be this
strategy uncovers more under games than over. Good luck everybody!
pryda
05-11-07, 09:39
Monday 05.11:
Boulogne - : - Nantes [UNDER] :oops:

Barnsley - : - Blackpool [OVER] ;)
--------
My UNDER status: 12W - 8L (60% accuracy)
pryda
05-11-07, 23:57
Tuesday 06.11:
Colchester - : - Plymouth [OVER] :oops:

Southampton - : - Wolves [OVER] :oops:
Preston - : - Leicester [UNDER] ;)
Montrose - : - Stranraer [OVER] ;)
Rotherham - : - Bury [OVER] ;)
Rochdale - : - Stockport [OVER] ;)
Milton Keynes - : - Grimsby [OVER] :oops:
Bradford - : - Chester [UNDER] :oops:
Tranmere - : - Oldham [UNDER] ;)
Gillingham - : - Doncaster [OVER] :oops:
Cheltenham - : - Yeovil [UNDER] ;)
------------------
pryda
07-11-07, 11:14
Wednesday 07.11:
Juventude - : - Sao Paulo [UNDER] ;)

---------------
My UNDER status: 16W - 9L (64% accuracy)
pryda
09-11-07, 10:29
Friday 09.11:
Parndorf - : - Leoben DSV [OVER] ;)

FC Köln - : - Erzgebirge Aue [OVER] ;)
Denizlispor - : - Trabzonspor [UNDER] ;)
Bastia - : - Sedan FC [UNDER] :oops:
Legia Warsaw - : - Jagiellonia Bialystok [OVER] :oops:
Maastricht - : - Deventer [OVER] :oops:
FC Zwolle - : - Cambuur Leeuwarden [OVER] ;)
Longford Town - : - Derry City [UNDER] :oops:
Cork City - : - Bohemians Dublin [UNDER] ;)
------------
pryda
12-11-07, 10:25
Monday 12.11:
Sparta Prague - : - Bohemians 1905 [UNDER] :oops:

1860 München - : - Mönchengladbach [OVER] :oops:
Roeselare - : - Mons [OVER] ;)
Coventry - : - West Bromwich [OVER] ;)
pryda
16-11-07, 12:39
Friday 16.11:
Arbroath - : - Stranraer [OVER] ;)
pryda
30-11-07, 22:23
FT Hansa Rostock 0-3 Hannover
83' Fahrenhorst
86' Hanke
87' Stajner
I've played it UNDER. I'm shocked.

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Bettingadvice forum > Betting aid / strategy > Betting strategy records >

My Under/Over strategy [COMEBACK]

View Full Version : My Under/Over strategy [COMEBACK]

[Let's assume my bank is 1000 USD]

OVER 2.5 @ 2.06 :D

UNDER 2.5 @ 2.46 [value] :D

OVER 2.5 @ 2.43 [value] :(

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.78 :D

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.79 :D

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.78 :D

UNDER 2.5 @ 1.86 :D

Overall 8 bets, 7 bets won, 1 bet lost

Good luck to all U/O bettors.

However, do you see any profitable pick today? I am going to place my

About the match you specified:

minimum goals (statistically) = 3.2

So, a definite OVER according to the stats.

Pick: OB Odense-Herfolge OVER 2.5 goals, 100 USD @ 1.59

Pick: OVER 2.5 goals, 100 USD @ 1.63

Esbjerg at home: 2.8, 1.5, overall 4.3

Pick: OVER 2.5 goals, 100 USD @ 1.88

Midtjylland at home: 1.8, 0.8, overall 2.6

Pick: OVER 2.5 goals, 100 USD @ 1.73

Nordsjaelland at home: 1.8, 2.3, overall 4.1

Pick: OVER 2.5 goals, 100 USD @ 1.65

Viborg at home: 1.3, 0.8, overall 2.1

Pick: UNDER 2.5 goals, 100 USD @ 2.34

Here are the bets so far (all flat stake of 100):

Nottm Forest v Rotherham

5 won bets, 1 lost bet

12 won bets, 2 lost bets

Theses stats can work for "last 5 match home" ???

And For Basketball and NFL ??

Where do you take stats please ??

Thnak you and good luck :wink:

What I do is go to http://soccerway.com/ to one of the league and then

Hopefully this good run will continue :)

Nottm Forest v Rotherham

2 won bets, 2 lost bets

14 won bets, 4 lost bets

Personally I went for over 2.5 on OB Odense vs Herfolge and

1 won bet, 0 lost bets

15 won bets, 4 lost bets

FT RBC Roosendaal 3 : 0 De Graafschap

As for Newcastle-Fullham, indeed according to the stats it is sure to go

Aston Villa v Portsmouth

Another won bet... 8)

Here are some more bets for today:

Southampton v West Brom

I'm going to start placing my money where my mouth is next week I

Aston Villa v Portsmouth

Southampton v West Brom

5 won bets, 2 lost bet

20 won bets, 6 lost bets

Aston Villa v Portsmouth

Southampton v West Brom

5 won bets, 1 lost bet

20 won bets, 5 lost bets

I'll be following your selections with cash, keep em coming.

I'll be following your selections with cash, keep em coming.

I'll be following your selections with cash, keep em coming.

I'll be following your selections with cash, keep em coming.

I'll be following your selections with cash, keep em coming.

Umm I've been posting like 20 games already :D