CHAPTER I

LOAD FORECASTING

System Load Variation

Load on a power system varies with respect to time. The various loads on power systems are:
 Domestic load
 Commercial Load
 Industrial Load
 Municipal Load
 Irrigation load
 Traction load
Domestic:
Lights, fans, domestic appliances like heaters, refrigerators, air conditioners,mixers, ovens, small
motors etc.
Demand factor = 0.7 to 1.0; Diversity factor = 1.2 to 1.3; Load factor = 0.1 to 0.15
Commercial:
Lightings for shops, advertising hoardings, fans, AC etc.
Demand factor = 0.9 to 1.0; Diversity factor = 1.1 to 1.2; Load factor = 0.25 to 0.3
Industrial:
Small scale industries: 0-20kW
Medium scale industries: 20-100kW
Large scale industries: above 100kW
Industrial loads need power over a longer period which remains fairly uniform throughout the day
For heavy industries:
Demand factor = 0.85 to 0.9; Load factor = 0.7 to 0.8
Agriculture:
Supplying water for irrigation using pumps driven by motors
Demand factor = 0.9 to 1; Diversity factor = 1.0 to 1.5; Load factor = 0.15 to 0.25
Other Loads:
Bulk supplies, street lights, traction, government loads which have their own peculiar
characteristics
Load Curves
The load on the power station is seldom constant; it varies from time to time.
It can be plotted on a graph taking load on Y-axis and time on X-axis

Daily Load Curve:

The load variation during the whole day are recorded hourly or half hourly and plotted against the
time to get daily load curve.
Monthly load curve :
 Obtained by calculating the average value of power at a particular time of the day from daily load
curve.
Annual load curve:
Obtained from monthly load curve of a particular year by calculating average value of power at a
particular time of the day.

Inferences from load curve

•It shows variation of load on the power station during different hours of the day.
• Area under the curve represents the total number of units generated in a day
• Peak of the curve represents the maximum demand on the station on that particular day.
• It helps in selecting the size and the number of generating units in particular station.
• It helps in preparing the operation schedule of the station.
• The area under the load curve divided by the number of hours represents the average load on the power
station.

Load Duration Curve…

• When the load elements of a load curve are arranged in the order of descending magnitudes, the
curve thus obtained is called load duration curve.
• The curve shows the number of hours during which the given load has prevailed.
• Area under this curve is same as that of the daily load curve
• It can be extended to include any period of time
 (i) Load Curve (ii) Load Duration Curve

BASE LOAD:
The unvarying load which occurs almost the whole day on the station
PEAKLOAD:
The various peak demands of load of the station

LOAD CHARACTERISTICS
 Connected load
 Maximum demand
 Average load
 Load factor
 Diversity factor
 Plant capacity factor
 Plant use factor

Connected Load: It is the sum of continuous ratings of all the equipment connected to supply system.

Maximum Demand: It is the greatest demand of load on the power station during a given period. (Also
called system peak)

Demand Factor: It is the ratio of actual maximum demand on the system to the total rated load connected
to the system.

Maximum Demand
Demand Factor = ----------------------------
Connected Load

Average Load :

The average of loads occurring on the power station in a given period (day or month or year)
LOAD FACTOR
The ratio of average load to the maximum demand during a given period .
Average Load
load factor = -------------------
Maximum load
Average Load = load factor * Maximum load
Units generated per annum = Average Load(kW) * hours in a year
Units generated per annum = Maximum load * load factor *8760

Diversity Factor
The ratio of the sum of individual maximum demand to the maximum demand on power station.
Sum of the Individual Maximum Demand
Diversity Factor = --------------------------------------------------------
Maximum Demand on the Power station

Capacity Factor (Plant Factor):

It is the ratio of actual energy produced to the maximum possible energy that could nave been
produced during a given period.
Average demand (in kW)*Time
Capacity factor = ------------------------------------------
Maximum demand *Time
Utilization Factor:
It is the measure of the utility of the power plant capacity and is the ratio of maximum demand to
the rated capacity of the power plant.
It is (always < 1).
Maximum demand on power system
Utilization factor = ------------------------------------------
Rated capacity of power station
Plant Use Factor:
It is the ratio of energy generated during a given period to the product of capacity of the plant and the
number of hours for which the plant was in operation.
Total kWh generated
Plant use factor = ------------------------------------
Plant capacity*hours of use

• Higher the values of load factor and diversity factor, lower will be the overall cost per unit
generated.
• Higher the diversity factor of the loads, the fixed charges due to capital investment will be
reduced.

Load forecasting:
The load on their systems should be estimated in advance. This estimation in advance is known as load
forecasting. Load forecasting based on the previous experience without any historical data.
 Load forecasting is vitally important for the electric industry in the deregulated economy.
 It helps an electric utility to make important decisions including decisions on purchasing and
generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development.
Classification of load forecasting:

Need for load forecasting:

To meet out the future demand.
Long term forecasting is required for preparing maintenance schedule of the generating units, planning
future expansion of the system.
For day-to-day operation, short term load forecasting demand and for maintaining the required
spinning reserve.
Very short term load forecasting is used for generation and distribution. That is, economic generation
scheduling and load dispatching.
Medium term load forecasting is needed for predicted monsoon acting and hydro availability and
allocating.
Reserve Requirements
In any area, the kind of fuel available, cost, availability of suitable sites for hydro station, the nature of load
to be supplied, are considered by choosing the type of generation. The minimum capacity of the generating
station must be such as to meet the maximum demand.
 Installed Reserve
 Spinning reserve
 Cold Reserve
 Hot reserve
Installed reserves: Installed reserve is that generating capacity which is the power intended to be always
available. Installed reserve can be kept low by the achievement of good diversity factor.
Spinning reserves: spinning reserve is that generating capacity which is connected to the bus and is ready
to take load.
Cold reserves: Cold reserve is that reserve generating capacity which is available for service but is not in
operation.
Hot reserves: Hot reserve is that reserve generation capacity which is in operation bus is not in service.