Professional Documents
Culture Documents
3 (1972) 309-326
Geza GY clLAll
Technical University, Budapest
Summary: For the planning of ever-intensifying urban rtransport,the use of up-to-date mathe-
matical tools and the formulation of economic efficiency aspects of decisions between
alternatives becomes imperative. This study presents a selection of mathematical and econo-
metric tools for every step of the planning, demonstrating the convenience of stochastic
models, in view of the random character oi urban pubric transport. Extended modeis of
network theory, based on graph theory, are applied, the synthesis of partial optima being
reached via dynamic programming. Examples are given, related to the planning of a new
residential estate.
the f’s being indices, with stretch L: population, H: length, 7’1 real
(relative) fare, and B: relative real wages.
Numerical values of coefficient. c (in fact, a:) integration constant)
and of the elasticities, according to vehicle types, based CM 1956 stand-
ards can be seen in table 1, which is self-explanatory.
Using expression ( 1) to calculate travel trends yields a logistic curve
closely approximable by a logarithmic trend for the Budapest situation.
From detailed sociological survey data on new residentiai estates, the
expected daily passenger numbers along the traffic route of a new
housrag estate could be constructed acccrding to a micro-economic
approach; it averaged 1.23 buses per resident, The figure is I.7 in indus-
trial distri&s and almost 6 in administrative districts. To determine the
number of journeys in a district, and predict the interflows that may be
Tab!e 1
C El F2 e3 p4
that most passengers take the most convenient rouf.e, taking all aspects
into consideration, including financial charges to the us%. Advantages
and disadvantages of the two route alternatives can be seen in table 2.
(I) Along the route of shortest travel time t2 and of greater length
h,, there is a lower charge per passenger for vehicle amortization and
Table 2
-- --
k!orlte 1 Route 2
---
h length shorter longer
t travel time Longer shorter
s speed lower higher
wages, because vehicles return faster ( 1), but (2) there are h.igher amor-
tizat;or. a:id maintenance costs for the greater track Lengths. Power
costs (3) show two opposite trends: a priori they seem higher for the
longer route, but the short route is affected by many starts and stops
and slow driving. Viewed from a national economy level (4), money
equivaJents of passenger time savings calls for route k, I and in fact, it is
more economical to select the longer route if the sum of cost differ-
ences (2) and (3) does not exceed differential savings (rows 1 + 4). This
is the economic optimum criterion of route selection, a route being
optimum in the strict sense of the word, since pure time savings are
considered together with other factors.
housug
estole
lh. cl
633
Y= 133+0.82x. i3)
av= ~pi
ax
COs~i =O and
aV
SF’ zp, sir. ,bi = 0. (5)
3KIo:zY~:~-sin~,:sh+~
Table 3
(6)
G. Gyulai, l’kansport planning in Hungary 325
Footnote
’ Nonius effect is encountered in urban mass transport where vehicles of two different
relations travel over a common road section. Headways between consecutive vehicles of two
different relations are not equal, even if the schedule is exactly observed. [For instance, let cars of
relation A start each 7 min and those. of relation B each 5 min; a given point of the common section
will be crossed at 00 mln (A and 8). OS min (B), 07 min (A), 10 min (B), 14 min (A) 15 min
(B) etc., thus, subsequent headways will be 0,5,2,3,4 and 1 min.%
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