Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(EAPP)
EAPP REGIONAL
POWER SYSTEM
MASTER PLAN
ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REPORT
December 2014
Published by:
Ea Energy Analyses
Frederiksholms Kanal 4, 3. th.
1220 Copenhagen K, Denmark
Energinet.dk
Tonne Kjærsvej 65
7000 Fredericia, Denmark
1 Introduction ........................................................................................4
8 References ........................................................................................ 29
Tanzania has discovered significant gas reserves and also has significantly re-
vised its coal reserves upwards. This, together with the planned coal-fired
power plants in Egypt, Kenya and Sudan, would result in an increase in carbon
and sulphur emissions. In order to assess how expansion plans for generation
capacity may influence the level of emissions, the Balmorel model (the model-
ling tool used in the EAPP Master Plan 2014 least-cost expansion planning) will
determine the amount of carbon and sulphur that might be dispelled to the
atmosphere. These will be determined on the basis of the technology and the
fuel used in each case. The result will be a development path for each pollu-
tant, which will be tracked across the scenarios evaluated in the study (more
details in Volume III: Results Report), and implications thereof will be dis-
cussed.
Scenario Description
Requirement of 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 % share of renewables to
Renewable satisfy the gross demand in 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 re-
spectively across the region
CO2 price of $10, $20, $30, $40, and $50/ton in 2020, 2025, 2030,
CO2 price
2035, and 2040 respectively across the region
Table 1: The description of the environmental scenarios modelled in the EAPP Master Plan 2014
study
The EAPP Master Plan 2011 Volume IV includes a generic assessment of the
potential environmental impacts of building major transmission lines in the
EAPP region and provides recommendations for mitigating environmental im-
pacts. This work is comprehensive and does not require updating.
Data uncertainty A number of assumptions (e.g. optimal power dispatch, investment coordina-
tion possibility regionally between generation and investments etc.) and pro-
jections regarding the development path of key parameters (e.g. power de-
mand growth, fuel prices etc.) have been made in the EAPP Master Plan 2014
study, and the accuracy of the results herein reported is subject to the materi-
alisation of the said assumptions.
Occurrences of acid rain have been reported in e.g. South Africa, in the East-
ern Transvaal Highveld, the industrial heart of the country where coal-fired
power stations and large metal working industries are concentrated. This area
has a history of producing most of the country's pollution: in 1987 it was re-
sponsible for 1.84 million tonnes of sulphuric acid and 0.84 million tonnes of
nitric acid. The acid rain that occurs in this region and can average pH 4.2 and
can fall as low as pH 3.7 (Collins, 2001).
It should be noted that Africa only contributes a minor share of the global SO2
emissions (as illustrated by Figure 1), with China, Northern America and Eu-
rope are leading the charge – and South Africa being responsible for the ma-
jority of all African emissions, as presented in Table 2. However, it is the im-
mediate local and regional health and environmental effects that should be
considered (also in East African context) when evaluating the prospective in-
crease in SO2 emissions in the EAPP member countries.
Table 2: Total SO2 emission estimates by decade (for the indicated year) and region. Source:
(Smith, et al., 2011)
Box 1: Future risks and impacts caused by a changing climate. Source: (Boko, et al., 2007)
“Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and cli-
mate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple
stresses’, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity (high confi-
dence).”
“Climate change will aggravate the water stress currently faced by some
countries, while some countries that currently do not experience water
stress will become at risk of water stress (very high confidence).”
The IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report in addition highlights that the
risks are not evenly distributed, being generally greater for “disadvantaged
people and communities at all levels of development (IPCC, 2014).
Although coal represented 29% of the world total primary energy supply in
2011, it accounted for 44% of the global CO2 emissions due to its heavy car-
bon content per unit of energy released. As compared to natural gas, coal is
nearly twice as emission-intensive on average (IEA, 2013). Similar to the SO2
Again, it should be highlighted that South Africa accounts for 38% of all CO2
emissions from fuel combustion in Africa (based on 2011 statistics), with coal
accounting for 70% of its primary energy supply and 94% of its electricity gen-
eration mix. South Africa has committed, under the Copenhagen
Accord, to reduce emissions by 34% by 2020 and by around 42% by 2025,
compared to the current emission baseline (IEA, 2013).
The level of SO2 and CO2 emissions reported in the current analysis is deter-
mined by the fuel use in the power production modelled in each time period
by the individual generation units represented1 (each characterised by capac-
ity, fuel type/technology, efficiency etc.), and the corresponding emission fac-
tors.
Table 4 provides an overview of the emission factors used in the current anal-
ysis. The emission coefficient for coal is of particular importance, given the
significant increase in coal-fired generation in the modelled results in the
Main scenario towards 2040.
SO2 emissions from coal- The SO2 emission coefficient for coal (0.07 kg/GJ) has been based on the
fired generation World Bank guidelines, 2008 edition (IFC World Bank Group, 2008) corre-
sponding to the emission limit for large (600 MW+) boiler type of plants, with
1
Please see EAPP Master Plan 2014 Volume II: Data Report for more information on the generation units
represented. Please see EAPP Master Plan 2014 Volume III: Results Report for detailed power generation
results.
The emission limit applicable to SO2 content in flue gas of 200 mg/Nm3 stated
in the World Bank guidelines has been converted to kg/GJ by using the coal
flue gas emission volume assumption2 of 350 Nm3/GJ (World Bank Group,
1998).
The 200 mg/Nm3 emission level (and the corresponding 0.07 kg/GJ, respec-
tively) represents 90% reduction in SO2 emissions relative to the average non-
desulphurised emission level of ca. 2000 mg/Nm3. This level of desulphurisa-
tion has been deemed attainable both from technological and financial stand-
points for the prospective power plant projects in the EAPP member coun-
tries.
250
Annual power production (TWh)
200
150
100
50
0
SOUTH_S
BURUNDI DJIBOUTI DRC EGYPT ETHIOPIA KENYA LIBYA RWANDA SUDAN TANZANIA UGANDA
UDAN
FUELOIL 0.67 3.86 0.19 0.02 4.94 0.43 0.50
LIGHTOIL 0.02 0.89 0.02 0.16 0.57 0.18 0.88 0.13 0.11 2.26
METHANE 0.21
COKE 0.77
WIND 4.30 0.69 0.19
WATER 0.21 10.85 13.63 8.99 3.99 0.33 7.49 2.61 3.79
GEO 0.39 0.04 5.01
SUN 0.03 0.25 0.03 0.02
PEAT 0.12
WOOD 0.46 0.15
BAGASSE 0.86 0.35 0.35
Natural gas 182.88 32.17 6.65
Figure 2: Annual power generation in TWh in the EAPP area by fuel type and country in mod-
elled year 2015 in the Main scenario (based on least-cost dispatch of the existing and commit-
ted generation units). See EAPP Master Plan 2014 Volume II: Data Report and Volume III: Re-
sults Report for more information.
As can be seen in the graph, natural gas-fired generation dominates in the re-
gion, largely because of its prevalence in Egypt and Libya. A number of coun-
tries have fuel oil in their generation mix, whilst no power is generated from
coal in 2015 (except for some coke-fired generation in Sudan).
140,000
40,000 FUELOIL
20,000 COKE
Figure 3: CO2 emission level in ‘000 tonnes in the EAPP region by fuel type in modelled year 2015
in the Main scenario (based on least-cost dispatch of the existing and committed generation
units)
The main source of SO2 emissions in modelled year 2015 in the EAPP region in
the Main scenario, on the other hand, is fuel oil, with the other sources con-
tributing only marginally as presented in Figure 4.
60,000
SO2 emissions (tonnes)
50,000 WOOD
40,000 PEAT
30,000 LIGHTOIL
20,000 FUELOIL
COKE
10,000
Figure 4: SO2 emission level in tonnes in the EAPP region by fuel type in modelled year 2015 in
the Main scenario (based on least-cost dispatch of the existing and committed generation units)
300,000
METHANE
Total generation capacity (MW)
COKE
250,000 WOOD
WIND
200,000 SUN
PEAT
MUNI_WASTE
150,000
LIGHTOIL
FUELOIL
100,000 Bagasse
WATER
50,000 NAT_GAS
GEO
- Coal
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Figure 5: Total installed generation capacity in MW by fuel type in the EAPP region over the pro-
jection period based on the modelling results of the Main scenario
FUELOIL
1,600
Figure 6: Annual power production in TWh by fuel type in the EAPP region over the projection
period based on the modelling results of the Main scenario
The increase in coal-fired generation in the medium to long term results in sig-
nificant increase in SO2 emissions 2030 onwards, as illustrated by Figure 7. The
projected emission level towards 2040 is 12 times higher than the 2015 base-
line. In the short to medium term, however, a decrease in the SO2 emission
levels could be expected if the commitment to phase out oil-based generation
succeeds towards 2020.
700,000
600,000 WOOD
SO2 emissions (tonnes)
500,000 PEAT
400,000 MUNI_WASTE
LIGHTOIL
300,000
FUELOIL
200,000
COKE
100,000
COAL
-
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Figure 7: Annual SO2 emission level in tonnes in the EAPP region over the projection period
based on the modelling results of the Main scenario
1,000,000
900,000 PEAT
CO2 emissions ('000 tonnes) 800,000
NAT_GAS
700,000
MUNI_WASTE
600,000
500,000 METHANE
400,000 LIGHTOIL
300,000 FUELOIL
200,000
COKE
100,000
0 COAL
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Figure 8: Annual CO2 emission level in ‘000 tonnes in the EAPP region over the projection period
based on the modelling results of the Main scenario
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
8% rate
8% rate
8% rate
8% rate
8% rate
Only G
Only G
Only G
Only G
Main
Only G
NG price
NG price
NG price
NG price
NG price
Main
Main
Main
Main
Benchmark
Benchmark
Benchmark
Benchmark
Benchmark
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Figure 9: Total installed generation capacity in MW by fuel type in the EAPP region over the pro-
jection period based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios
1,600
Annual power production (TWh)
Nuclear
1,400
FUELOIL
1,200 LIGHTOIL
1,000 METHANE
COKE
800 BAGASSE
600 WOOD
SUN
400
PEAT
200 MUNI_WASTE
WIND
-
WATER
8% rate
8% rate
8% rate
8% rate
8% rate
Only G
Only G
Only G
Only G
Only G
Main
NG price
Benchmark
Main
NG price
Main
NG price
Main
Nuclear
NG price
Main
NG price
Benchmark
Nuclear
Nuclear
Benchmark
Nuclear
Benchmark
Benchmark
Nuclear
Natural gas
GEO
Coal
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Figure 10: Annual power production in TWh by fuel type in the EAPP region over the projection
period based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios
Predictably, the SO2 emission levels mirror the coal-fired power generation
dynamics, as presented in Figure 11. Relaxation of national security of supply
requirements (Benchmark), as well implementation of the nuclear-based
power development plans in Egypt and Kenya (Nuclear) result in lower overall
SO2 emission levels compared to the Main scenario. Higher natural gas prices
(NG price) and limited regional transmission capability (Only G), in turn, yield
higher projected SO2 emission levels.
The case with more favourable financing terms (8% rate) is less straight –for-
ward, however. It results in more coal-based investments (and generation, as
well as SO2 emissions) earlier in the projection period as compared to the
Main scenario; whilst in the long term, it makes additional nuclear, hydro and
wind power investment (and generation) possible, thereby reducing the SO2
emission level in 2040 vis-à-vis the Main scenario.
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
8% rate
8% rate
8% rate
8% rate
8% rate
Only G
Only G
Main
Only G
Only G
Only G
NG price
NG price
NG price
NG price
NG price
Main
Main
Main
Main
Benchmark
Benchmark
Benchmark
Benchmark
Benchmark
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
The projected CO2 emission levels follow the same pattern, largely driven by
the coal-fired generation, as shown in Figure 12. Coal-based generation over-
takes natural gas as the main source of CO2 emissions by 2030 across all sce-
narios, except the case with higher natural gas price (NG price) and more fa-
vourable financing terms (8% rate) where this transition takes place already
by 2020, and 2025, respectively.
1,000,000
CO2 emissions ('000 tonnes)
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Only G
8% rate
Only G
8% rate
Only G
8% rate
Only G
8% rate
Only G
8% rate
NG price
NG price
Benchmark
NG price
NG price
NG price
Main
Main
Main
Main
Main
Benchmark
Nuclear
Benchmark
Nuclear
Nuclear
Benchmark
Nuclear
Benchmark
Nuclear
Figure 12: Annual CO2 emission level in ‘000 tonnes in the EAPP region over the projection pe-
riod based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios
The 2 ‘environmental’ scenarios modelled in the EAPP Master Plan 2014 study
are presented in Table 5.
Scenario Description
Requirement of 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 % share of renewables3 to
Renewable satisfy the gross demand in 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 re-
spectively across the region
CO2 price of $10, $20, $30, $40, and $50/ton in 2020, 2025, 2030,
CO2 price
2035, and 2040 respectively across the region
Table 5: The description of the environmental scenarios modelled in the EAPP Master Plan 2014
study
3
‘Renewables’ are defined as follows: generation based on hydro (also large hydro), wind, solar, geother-
mal, biomass (bagasse and wood), municipal waste and methane (only relevant for Rwanda, and consid-
ered renewable because of its origin of Lake Kivu deposits)
Main
Renewable
CO2 price
Main
Renewable
CO2 price
Main
Renewable
CO2 price
Main
Renewable
CO2 price
Main
Renewable
CO2 price
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Figure 13: Total installed generation capacity in MW by fuel type in the EAPP region over the
projection period based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios
The power generation in the EAPP area over the projection period is pre-
sented in Figure 14. As it can be seen, coal-fired generation is being activated
in excess of its relative capacity share in each scenario, whilst wind power
generation (alike natural gas-fired generation) are exhibiting significantly
lower average full-load hours of production.
1,600
Annual power production (TWh)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
CO2 price
CO2 price
CO2 price
CO2 price
CO2 price
Main
Main
Main
Main
Main
Renewable
Renewable
Renewable
Renewable
Renewable
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Figure 14: Annual power production in TWh by fuel type in the EAPP region over the projection
period based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios
The emission levels of sulphur dioxide in the EAPP region over the projection
period are presented in Figure 15. The CO2 price scenario results in the lowest
SO2 emission level, in line with its very low share of coal-fired generation. The
emission levels in the Renewable scenario match those in the Main scenario
until 2030, but decrease significantly compared to the Main scenario in the
long term.
Renewable
Renewable
Renewable
Renewable
Renewable
Main
CO2 price
CO2 price
Main
CO2 price
Main
CO2 price
Main
Main
CO2 price
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Figure 15: Annual SO2 emission level in tonnes in the EAPP region over the projection period
based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios
The CO2 emission levels exhibit a similar pattern, with the CO2 price scenario
yielding the most significant decrease relative to the Main scenario, as illus-
trated by Figure 16.
1,000,000
900,000
CO2 emissions ('000 tonnes)
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Main
Renewable
CO2 price
Main
Renewable
CO2 price
Main
Renewable
CO2 price
Main
Renewable
CO2 price
Main
Renewable
CO2 price
Figure 16: Annual CO2 emission level in ‘000 tonnes in the EAPP region over the projection pe-
riod based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios
Investments in Elec- Investments in Electric- Annual Annual Annual Fuel Annual Total
Year /
tricity Generation an- ity Transmission annu- Fixed O&M Variable Cost System Cost
Scenario
nualised (M$) alised (M$) (M$) O&M (M$) (M$) (M$)
2020
Main 4,088 90 3,567 1,292 23,927 32,964
Renewable 4,633 140 3,646 1,302 23,346 33,067
CO2 price 4,517 133 3,632 1,301 23,452 33,036
2025
Main 10,266 178 4,671 1,769 33,738 50,622
Renewable 11,494 349 4,812 1,787 32,295 50,738
CO2 price 11,601 277 4,812 1,765 32,455 50,910
2030
Main 21,473 405 6,464 2,724 43,358 74,425
Renewable 27,049 737 7,153 2,832 37,545 75,316
CO2 price 37,854 667 8,579 2,485 29,216 78,801
2035
Main 32,610 596 8,303 3,783 53,666 98,960
Renewable 45,379 1,121 9,859 3,924 40,441 100,725
CO2 price 55,217 1,047 11,128 3,159 35,734 106,285
2040
Main 44,260 853 10,145 4,822 61,242 121,322
Renewable 62,933 1,545 12,310 4,742 44,148 125,678
CO2 price 70,853 1,433 13,390 3,743 43,111 132,531
Table 7: Annual total system costs by cost component in million USD (2013 real value) in the
EAPP region over the projection period based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios
The cost data indicates that both Renewable and CO2 price scenarios result in
additional investments both in generation and transmission, whilst reducing
the reliance on fossil fuels, as expressed by the annual fuel costs. The total an-
nual system costs are, however, higher than those of the Main scenario, the
4
20 year loan repayment assumed for all technologies except hydro and nuclear (50 years). 10% interest
rate in real terms assumed, corresponding to an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 10% or more for all model-
based investments. The year of the investment is assumed to represent a typical year of operation over the
lifetime of the project. See Volume I: Main Report and Volume II: Data Report for more information.
The authors of this report contend that environmental considerations and ex-
ternalities should also be accounted for in the generation and transmission
planning process both nationally and regionally. No relevant regional agree-
ments on the treatment of externalities arising from fossil-fired power gener-
ation exist at the time of writing this report. In order to illustrate examples of
environmental policies that might assist in avoiding the significant increase of
coal-fired generation and the resulting emissions (and the projected environ-
mental and economic impacts thereof), two scenarios have been specifically
developed as a part of the EAPP Master Plan 2014 study: the Renewable sce-
nario, and the CO2 price scenario.
Table 8 shows the absolute SO2 and CO2 emission level development path-
ways in the 3 scenarios in the EAPP region over the projection period in mil-
lion tonnes, put in perspective relative to the historic baseline levels for entire
Africa in 2005 and 2011, respectively.
Table 8: Annual SO2 and CO2 emission levels in million tonnes in the EAPP region over the projec-
tion period based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios compared to the baseline
levels of 2005 and 2011, respectively
The Renewable scenario would result in the mitigation of 1/3 of the projected
SO2 and CO2 emissions relatively to the Main scenario, whereas the CO2 price
scenario would nearly eliminate all SO2 emissions, and mitigate 80% of the
CO2 emissions, respectively. Table 9 summarizes the emission abatement in
the 2 scenarios relative to the Main scenario.
Table 9: Annual SO2 and CO2 emission abatement of Renewable and CO2 price scenarios vis-à-vis
the Main scenario (Main as the base) in million tonnes in the EAPP region over the projection
period based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios
Table 10 summarizes the additional annual system costs of the two scenarios
relative to the Main scenario. The additional expenditure to achieve higher
share of RES in generation, as well as low-carbon generation, increases over
time in line with the increasing required RES targets and CO2 prices, respec-
tively, as well as rapidly growing demand (and need for additional power gen-
eration) combined with a limited pool of cost-competitive RES projects.
Total additional annual system costs vis-à-vis the Main scenario (M USD)
Renewable 102 116 891 1,765 4,357
CO2 price 72 289 4,376 7,325 11,209
Table 10: Annual total system cost difference of Renewable and CO2 price scenarios vis-à-vis the
Main scenario (Main as the base) in million USD (2013 real value) in the EAPP region over the
projection period based on the modelling results of the selected scenarios
Additional parameters that can influence the future projected emission levels
include the natural gas price (higher price results in more coal-fired genera-
tion and higher emission levels), as well as limited regional power system inte-
gration, i.e. no further cross-border transmission projects in the EAPP region
(resulting in e.g. limited possibilities of additional hydro power integration and
higher reliance on fossil-fired generation). More regional collaboration, e.g.
through removing national security of supply requirements, could, in turn,
yield more investment in cost-competitive RESs in resource-abundant areas,
and thereby reduce the emissions. Finally, the implementation of the nuclear
power development plans in Egypt and Kenya would reduce the SO2 and CO2
emission levels in the region, whilst more favourable financing terms would
lead to more investment in capital-intensive (yet cheaper-fuel) coal-fired tech-
nologies in the short to medium term, and more investment in wind, hydro
and nuclear technologies towards 2040.
IFC World Bank Group. (2008). Environmental Health and Safety Guidelines –
Thermal Power Plants. Washington DC: International FInance
Corporation.
Smith, S. J., Aardenne, J. v., Klimont, Z., Andres, R. J., Volke, A., & Arias, S. D.
(2011). Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850–2005.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
Smith, S. J., Andres, R., Conception, E., & Lurz, J. (2011). Historical Sulfur
Dioxide Emissions 1850-2000: Methods and Results. College Park:
Joint Global Change Research Institute.