AT AHL ada oer arart ale RASH Sea AISA GOVERNMENT OF INDIA CENTRAL WATER COMMISSION HYDROLOGY STUDIES ORGANISATION aiteed ag stipe Prearactt MANUAL ON ~ ESTIMATION OF DESIGN FLOOD ow WReaHeaeeaeaesSe | tr | op eee 8 © 3 6 9 42 15 18 21 TIME (hr) ae feet NEW DELHI art , 2001 MARCH, 2001aftrrct ae stinert Pract MANUAL ON ESTIMATION OF DESIGN FLOOD Sret PIS SAT WTS HYDROLOGY STUDIES ORGANISATION trsfla oret are CENTRAL WATER COMMSSION ag fect NEW DELHI He, 2009 MARCH, 2001FOREWORD ‘The importance of Hydrology and its fundamental role in Planning, Development and rational utilisation of Water Resources have been increasingly recognised in India with the advent of planned development under the Five Years Plans. The determination of the flood magnitude, especially ts maximum peak tobe adopted in the design of major dams is an important study in Hydrology. Similarly design flood to be adopted for fixing water ways of hydraulic structures and bridges on ungauged streams has been associated with uncertainties and consequential risks. For the benefit of the designifield engineers, a Manual viz; ‘Estimation of Design Flood - Recommended Procedures’ was brought out in the year 1972 by the Central Water Commission (erstwhile Central Water & Power Commission). Before that empirical methods were in vogue. With the advent of higher standards of hydrometeorolgy and better knowledge of hydrometeorological phenomenon, itis now possible to make reliable estimate of design flood for different kinds of hydraulic structures and bridges. Regional studies for determination of storm rain-fall or specific rotuen perigd and estimating the design flood values for small caichments have been carried out jointly by the India Meteorology Department (IMD), Research Design and Standard Organization (ROSO), Ministry of Railways, Ministry of Transport (MOT) and Central Water Commission. Based on these scientific studies, formulae for estimation of flood have been developed for different return period. This will help the designers in estimating design flood, reasonable accurate for un-gauged catchments: The need to update the manual has been felt for quite sometime. ‘In the revised manual, various approaches such as Hydro-meteorological, probabilly, regional studies etc. have been discussed in detail with case historids and the approach to be adopted to evaluate a reasonable design flood. It is put on record the strenuous work done by Shri V.V. Badareenarayana, Chief Engineer (HSO) (Retd,) and his team to prepare the first draft of this manual and they deserve ‘appreciation for their dedicated and excellent efforts put in to bring out this Publication, itis hoped that design enginoers will ind the "Manual" very useful Dr. B-K.Mittal Member (D&R), CWC New Delhi ‘ March, 2001 ULPREFACE Estimation of design flood for the design of differenttypes of hydraulic structures is a very significant component of hydrological studies. Proper selection of design flood value is of great importance. While a higher value results in increase in the-cost of hydraulic structu res, an under, estimated value is likely to place the structure and population involved, at risk. Since absolute flood protection is unrealistic, a rational design of hydraulic structures must take into account the risk of flooding and consequent damages. ‘The then Central Water & Power Commission published a manual ‘Estimation of Design Flood ~ Recommended Procedure’, in 1972. The criteria recommended in the manual have undergone some changes since then. Important developments are in respect of estimation of design storm. The other changes ate in respect of criteria for selecting a design flood to be adopted for various hydraulic structures. Therefore, the need for revision of the above Manual has been increasingly felt. The present publication is the revision of the publication of 1972 incorporating all the changes in criteria and practice being followed and adopted now. ‘The revised MANUAL is divided into 9 chapters bringing out various aspects and procedures for estimation of design flood. Attempt has been made to incorporate actual studies done, as an illustrative example in relevant chapters. Chapter 1 is in the nature of general introduction to familiarise the planners/enginoers with definitions etc. Chapter 2 deals with the design criteria for design floods to be adopted for various hydraulic structures under different field conditions. Chapter 3 deals with the various approaches and methods of design flood estimation. Chapter 4 gives a brief account of various flood formulae developed through regional flood studies fulfiling the long fell need of eliminating the use of age old empirical formulae. Chapter 5 contains various aspects of requency analysis. Some case studies have also been discussed to estimate the frequency flood. Chapter 6 on design storms studies forms an important input to the design flood estimation. The atmospheric phenomena in general have also been discussed. The important changes that have taken place since the publication of 1972 manual is with respect to estimation of SPS or PMP have been added to this chapter. This chapter explains the procedures with ilustrative examples. Chapter 7 (on unit hydrograph contains various methods deriving unit hydrograph with worked out examples. In the case of very large basins as the storm distribution cannot be expected to be uniform, the design flood hydrograph has to be synthesised from individual hydrographs of the sub-basins. In such case flood routing procedure become necessary. Hence chapter 8 is included to deal with ‘more commonly used methods of stream flow routing. The design flood synthesis procedure has been brought out in Chapter 9. | acknowledge the efforts put in by officers and staff of Hydrology Study Organisation, especially those of Hydrology (DSR) Director.ate and strenuous work done by Shri M.E. Haque, the then Director and now Secretary, Central Water Commission in reviewing all the chapters and incorporating recent ideas on the subject. The various publications referred in the preparation of each chapter have been listed at the end of the chapter. New Dothi hyp — March, 2001 (G.c. VYAS) Chief Engineer Hydrology Study Organisation Central Water CommissionDPNRRONNYONNNON GRGSE” Soasaes pouguopeesoooseoonaee BABARA wowwoowe SR8°SR ses CONTENTS Introduction 4 General 1 Design Flood —Definition 4 Design Flood Assessments 2 Design Flood Manual 4 References 5 Design Criteria 742 General 7 Flood Parameters, 7 Storage Dams 8 Inflow Design Flood For The Safety Of The Dam 8 Inflow Design Flood For Efficient Operation Of Eneray 9 Design Flood For Upstream Submergence Consideration 9 Design Flood For Downstream Submeraence Consideration 9 Other Aspects To Be Considered 10 Barrages And Weirs, 10 Diversion Works-Coffer Dams 40 Cross Drainage Works 40 Road and Railway Bridges 12 References 2 Flood Estimation Approach 13.23 General B Formulae Approach B Regional Approach 4 Statistical Approach 14 Hydrometeoroloaical Approach 15 Selection Of Method 18 References 7 Flood Formulae And Envelope Curves 26-28 Early Approaches 25 Empirical Formulae 25 Regional Flood Formulae 25 Envelope Curves 26 References, 26 Flood Frequency Analysis 29-410 General 29 The Concept 29 Some Basic Statistical Terms 30 Hydrological Data 33 Data Processing 34 Data Checking 34 Probability Distributions 38 Commonly Used Probability Distributions 38 Parameter Estimation a2 Use of Probability Papers 43 Plotting Positions 4a ‘Test For Goodness Of Fit 45 Chi-Square Test 45 Kolmoaorov-Simimov Test 45 Confidence Intervals, 46 Regional Flood Frequency Analysis a7 Need For Regional Frequency Analysis ar Construction Of Regional Frequency Curve 48 ‘Application To Ungauged Basins 49 References 49 VuORONS S205 Baaaosaaasoseunnen eo SaSane BOSARR DOO DDOUNNRRS GRoowwoue 2908900000 ©920992E9@ VNANANANNNANNNANNNN 99099 dana99n099900909990 Nooanseons Design Storm 113-142 General 113 Some Basic Meteorological Terms 113 Atmospheric Pressure 113 Lapse Retes And Atmospheric Stability 114 Moisture In Air And Precipitable Water 114 Convergence 115 Precipitation, Storms And Depressions 115 Causes Of Heavy Rainfall In India Ww Data For Storm Studies 118 Design Storm Duration 119 Estimating Probable Maximum Storm 119 General 119 Storm Transposition 119 Selection Of Major Storms 121 Depth-Area-Duration Analysis, 42 Desian Storm Depth For Small Catchment 123 Maximization Of Selected Storms 123 Ilustrative Example 125 Envelopment Of Transposed Adjusted Storms 126, Probable Maximum Storm For Mountainous Regions 127 Estimation Of Standard Project Storm 128 ‘Time Adjustment Of Desian Rainfall 128 Generalised PMP Aliases 129 Unit Hydrograph 143-208 General 143 Principles And Application 143 Definition 143 Features 143 ‘Assumptions: 145 Limitations 147 Derivation Of Unit Hydrograph 147 Unit Hydrograph From A Hydroaraph With Isolated Peak 147 Unit Hydrograph From Complex Flood Hydrograph 148, Unit Hydronraphs Of Various Unit Duration’ 154 S-Curve Or Hydrograph 152 Averaging The Unit Hydroaraph 152 ‘Synthetic Unit Hydrograph, 154 ‘Snyder's Method 154 ‘Time Area Concentration Curves 158 ‘Transposition Of Unit Hydroaraph 159 Flood Estimation Reports Of CWC 159 Reference 163 Flood Routing 209-224 General 209 Reservoir Routing: Storade-Indication Method 210 Stream-Flow Routing 211 Determination Of Channel Storage 21 ‘Muskingum Method 212 ‘Successive Averages Laa Method 215 Flood Routing By Graphical Method 215 Hydrodynamic Methods 215 Reference 216 Design Flood Synthesis 225-238 General 225 Desian Storm Hyetoaraph 225 Loss Rate 226 Convolution 226 Baseflow 227 Mustrative Example 227 Critical Arrangement Of Rainfall Ordinates 227 Conyoiution 231 Reference 231 vullLIST OF FIGURES Fig. 3.1 Solection of Method 20 Fig 32 Hydrometeorological Subzones a Fig.3.3 Flow Chart on Flood Frequency Analysis, 22, Fig. 34 Hydrometeorological Approach 23 Fig. 4.1 Envelope Curves for PMF Developed By CWC 28 Fig 54 Probability Distribution Function a4 Fig.52 Cumulative Probability Distribution Functions at Fig.A5.1.1 Auto Correlation Coefficient 60 Fig.A5.1.2. Annual Flood Peaks 6 Fig. A513 Characteristics of Flood Peaks 62 Fig.A5.1.4 Moving Mean Using All Data 63 Fig.A5.1.5 Moving Standard Deviation Using All Data 64 Fig.A5.1.6 Moving Skewness Using All Data 6 Fig A517 Moving Coef. of Variation Using All Data 66. Fig. A.5.1.8 Comparison of Moving Means 67 Fig. A.5.1.9 Comparison of Moving Standard Deviation 68 Fig.A5.1.10. Plot on Normal Probability Paper 69 Fig. A5.1.11 Plot on Log-Normal Probability Paper 70 Fig.A5.1.12_Plot on Gumbel Probability Paper n Fig.AS.1.13 Flood of Different Return Period 72 Fig.A5.2.1 Auto Correlation Coefficient 82 Fig. A522 Time Series Plot 93 Fig.A5.2.3. Time Series Plot Neglecting 1971 data 84 Fig.A5.2.4 Moving Average (15 years) 85 Fig.A5.2.5 Moving Average (15 years) neglecting 1971 data 86 Fig A526 Cumulative Deviation of Mean 87 FigA$.2.7 Log Normal Probability Paper ee Fig.A5.5.1 Betwa Sub Zone 1(c) 105 Fig.A5.5.2 Relationship Between Mean Annual Peak Flood And Cate rentarca 107 Fig A553. Regional Pooled Peak 108 Fig.A5.51 Regional Frequency Curve By USGS Method 109 Fig.A5.5.5 Regional Frequency Curve Using Gumbet's Frequency Factors 440 Fig.A5.5.6 Regional Frequency Curve By Least Squares Method, 1 Fig 61 Pseudo-Adiabatic Diagram For Dew Point Reductions To 1000hPaAt 136 Height Zero Fig.62A _ Storm Isohyetal Chart Maximum one-Day Sept.21,1926 137 Fig.62B Storm Isohyctal Chart Maximum Two Day Sept.20-21m1926 138 Fig62C Storm Isohyetal Chart Maximum Three Day 19-21,1926 139 Fig.6.3 Depth Area Duration Curves For Storm of Sept 19.21,1926 140 Fig.64 Determination of Representative Highest Dew Point of Storm (August 141 15-17,1948) Fig.65 Storm Isohetal Map For Sept. 19, 1938 Kopli River Upto Project Site 142 Fig.7.1 Parameter of Unit Hydrograph 144Fig 7.2 Fig 7.3 Fig.7.4 Fig.7.5 Fig.7.6 Fig. 7.7 Fig. 7.8 Fig7.9 Effective Rainfall Effective Rainfall 1 hour Unit Hydrograph 1 hour Unit Hydrograph ‘Complete Storm } bevation of unit Hydrograph from IU Fig.7.10a,b Effective Rainfall Fig. 7.11 Fig. 7.12 Fig 7.13 Fig.7.14 Fig A7.1.1 Fig A742 FigA7.2.1 Fig A722 FigA7.2.3 FigA73.4 FigA7.32 FigA75.4 FigA7.52 Fig A764 FigA77.4 FigA7.72 FigA7.8.4 Fig.8.1 Fig 8.2 Fig 8.3 Fig 94 Fig 92 Fig 9.3 ‘Averaging of UG (a)\socrone in a catchment (b)Time-Area Hystogram (6) Time Cumulative Area Curve Catchment Characteristics, Parameters of UG Observed flood Hydrograph 6 hours Unit Hydrograph at Anandpur Flood Hydrograph at Anandpur Direct Run-off Hydrograph at Anandpur 1WH & 4 hr UG at Anandpur COrdinates of ERH & DRH -hour Unit Hydrograph at Anandpur S-Hydrograph due to effective Rainfall Unit Hydrograph of 3 hour Unit duration Catchment Map of Bridge No.7 Dimension less UG at bridge site Unit Hydrograph UG by SUG approach of Sub-Zone Report ‘A- Inflow And Outflow Hydrographs For Reservoir B. Inflow And Outflow Hydrograph For A Reach of River C- Relation Between Outfiow And Storage For A Reach of River D- Profile of A Flood Wave Reservoir Routing By Modified Puls Method ‘Stream Flow Routing By Muskingum Method Convolution Process Excess Hyetograph (Adopted) Design Flood Hydrograph 145 145, 146 146 150 151 151 151 153, 155 157 161 162 164 168 169 169 174 176 181 187 187 190 202 203 207 221 221 221 221 222 223 233 234 235a4 5A 52 53 5A 55 ABSA A552 A553 ASSA A555 A556 AA AT2 ATS ATA ATS AIS AIT ATS Aro LIST OF ANNEXURES List of Hydrometeorologically Homogeneous subzones 18-19 Flood Frequency Analysis for River Sutlej at Bhakra Flood Frequency Analysis for River Sone at Chopan “K’ values for Outlier Test CHI —Square Distribution 50-59 73.91 89 90 Regional Flood Frequency Analysis for Betwa subzone 91-110 List of Selected Railway Bridge Catchments and Availability of Crest Gauge Data ‘Annual Flood Peak Series (cumecs) Statistical Parameters of Annual Flood Peak Series Mean Values of Qi/1 and Reduced Variate ‘Y" Median Values of @-T/Q. ‘Comparison of Q50 Estimates by SUG and Other Methods Unit Hydrograph from an Isolated Flood Hydrograph Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (Nash Model) Unit Hydrograph by Collin’s method ‘Example of Conversion of Unit Hydrograph of tt HR. Example on S - Hydrograph Derivation of Unit Hydrograph by Clark Method Example on Derivation of Unit Hydrograph Using Dimensionless UG Approach, 99 100 101 102 103 104 164-167 168-174 175-184 182-184 185-187 188-195 196-203 ‘Example on Derivation of Unit Hydrograph Using Flood 204-207 Estimation Reports of Central Water Commission, ‘Synthetic UG Relations XI 208ABBREVIATIONS USED ‘Area, catchment area,coefficient ] ‘Ante Meridian ‘Acre-foot Atmosphere coefficient Barrier Adjustment Factor Bureau of Indian Standard coefficient Cal ie = Cubie feet per second Centimeter (10°) Degree Celcius ‘Synthetic-unit-hydrograph coefficient of peak: Coefficient of skewness Synthetic-unit-hydrograph coefficient of lag ~ | Central Water and Power Commission Coefficient of variati Central Water Commission Depth; drainage density | Diameter; coefficient | "| Depth Area Duration Degree | ‘Dam Safety Assurance and Rehabilitation Project ‘base of napierian logarithms Expected value of () Exponential Foot Gauge height acceleration of gravity, gram ‘Gauge and Discharge Static Head Height, head hecta Pascal ‘Hour Inflow; antecedent-precipitation index Rainfall intensity; index number Inflow Design Flood _ India Daily Weather Report _ Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology India Meteorological Department Inch | Logarithm to the base € | deg DSARP e EO) exp ft le G&D H h Hg Mercury hPa br I i IDF IDWR. HTM IMD in In Is. Indian Standard | XIIn jandard Time Instantaneous unit Indian Weather Review ‘Muskingum storage constant = x Coeflicient; number; exponent Knot Lengt Tocation Adjustment factor Tatitude Distance from outlet to’center of basin Log normal Log Normal I (pn Log Normal IL 1g Normal IT i Log Pearson Type HL 1 | Coeflicient or exponent; rank oF event Meter Moisture Adjustment Factor I Millibar Mile Minute Millimeter (10"m) Million metre cube “Moisture Ma Fa Method Mean sea level Monthly Weather Review Number Sample absolute frequency in i® class interval Expected value of the absolute frequency in i" class interval Sutflow Ordinary Rain Gauge _ — Precipitation: pollutant; probability of event in any year | Computed probability Pa Pas mr PDE Probl PMP Probable Maximum Plood PMS Probable Maximum Storm 3 Pru Pearson Type HI é q Discharge rate Q Volume or rate of discharge or runolt Q Peak Discharge of Unit Hydrograph (cumees) i Peak of Unit hydrograph for unit area (cumecs XrTper sq.km.) [rT Adjusted correlation coefficient: ratio |RDSO___| Research Design and Standards Ores storage ir. Equivalent Slope International System of Units oe Standard Project Flood "Standard Project Storm —[Bevoineemperature = 1 a i iP Time from the center of rainfall excess duration to peak oF sto duration to peak LoruG ey duration for shot hydrograph US | Upstream [UG Unit Hydrograph ma | Ws idth of the UG in hours measured at 5 discharge [Wee Width of the UG in hours measured at 75% WMO World Meteorological Organi ban | Wpmax Weso oninate me zi Wars Width of UG measured at 75% of peak discharge ordinate x Mean of X x Dis ‘onstant or exponent, weighting fctor in Muskingham routing Upper confidence limit = Fstimated value of T-year return period Nod Tower confidence limit Low outlier threshold Mode of X | Variable: aquifer thickness = sy xIVMean of Y ‘Vertical distance Standard deviation Ment Se Shape parameter ‘Gamma function Location parameter =e SI Prefixes Factor Prefix Symbol 10° giga G 10° mega M 10° kilo k 10° hecto h 10? centi_¢ 10° milli m 10° micro xvCHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.4 GENERAL 4.1.4. Hydrological inputs play a very vital role in planning, execution and operation of any water resources development project. Hydrological studies are carried out at all the stages of project development starting from the pre-feasibility stage and are continued even during the operation of the project. 1.1.2. Hydrological studies usually cover the following aspects. * Resource availability i.e., the assessment of quantities of available water and its time variation; + Safety of project in the event of extremal flood i.e., estimation of design flood; and ‘Life of the project ie., the assessment of the incoming silt load trapped and its distribution in the reservoir for estimating the effect on the live storage and the useful life of the project, 4.1.3. Estimation of design flood for the design of different types of structures is a very significant component of hydrological studies. Proper selection of design flood value is of great importance. While a higher value results in increase in the’ cost of hydraulic structures, an under estimated value is likely to place the structure and population involved, at risk. 1.2 DESIGN FLOOD - DEFINITIONS 4.2.1. Since absolute flood protection is unrealistic, a rational design of hydraulic structures must take into account the risk of flooding and consequent damages. For design purposes, it is necessary to define a flood corresponding to the maximum tolerable risk. This flood, called the design flood, is defined as the flood hydrograph or the instantaneous peak discharge adopted for the design of a river head work or control structure, after accounting the economic and hydrological factor. It is a flood that the project can sustain without any substantial damage, either to the objects which it protects of to its own structures, The risk of damage is equivalent to the probability of ‘occurrence of flood larger than the design flood (WMO, 1994)1.2.2. The design flood, also known as Inflow Design Flood (IDF) is the flood that is selected for design or safety evaluation of the structure. The value of the design flood should increase with increasing consequences of the failure of the structure. Therefore, in the simplest way, design flood may be defined as the “flood adopted for design purposes”. It may be the probable maximum flood or the standard project flood or a flood corresponding to some desired frequency of occurrence depending upon the standard of security that should be provided against possible failure of the structure (BIS,1971). 1.2.3 Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is the flood resulting from the most severe combination of critical meteorological _and hydrological conditions that are reasonably Possible in the region, and is computed by using the maximum probable storm which is an estimate of the physical upper limit to storm rainfall over the basin. This is obtained by studying all the storms that have.occurred over the region and maximizing them for the most critical atmospheric conditions (BIS 1971). 1.2.4 Standard Project Flood (SPF) is the flood resulting from the most severe combination of meteorological and hydrological conditions considered reasonably characteristic of the region. The SPF is computed from the standard project rainfall over the basin in question and may be taken as the largest storm observed in the region of the basin. It is not maximised for the most critical atmospheric condition but it may be transposed from an adjacent region to the watershed uhder consideration (BIS. 1971) 1.3. DESIGN FLOOD ASSESSMENTS 1.3.1 The various methods tor estimation of design flood are as follows. * Flood formulae and Enveloping curves * Flood frequency analysis * Hydro-meteorological approach 1.8.2 The choice of the method of design flood estimation depends upon the specific requirement and the data availability. For example, for the purpose of design of embankment, the basic requirement is to estimate the water level corresponding to a flood of specific return period and the volume of the flood is not very significant. In such a situation, flood frequency analysis for estimation of flood of a particular return period is generally carried out. On the other hand, for the design of a dam with considerable storage capacity, both the peak discharge as well as the volume of the flood are quite significant. This objective can be achieved only by the estimating the design flood hydrograph by hydro-meteorological approach. Enveloping curves are effectively used for the purpose of checks and comparison with the earlier estimates of design flood for other projects. 1.3.3 The availability of data also restricts the adoption of a particular method of estimation of design flood. Flood frequency analysis can be cunsidered for e: 2of floods of different return periods only if sufficiently long records of flood peaks are available. Further, the data series should also be checked for homogeneity and consistency. In case the discharge data are not available at the site proper but the same are available at various other sites in the region, the regional flood frequency analysis can be adopted after development of appropriate relations. The application of hydro-meteorological approach for design flood estimation requires short interval discharge and rainfall data for derivation of unit hydrograph & for assessing the time distribution curves for the rainfall. Historical record of rainfall data from various stations in and around the basin as also from the region are required for storm analysis and for establishing the storm characteristics. Even for deriving a synthetic unit hydrograph, detailed physiographic features of the basin are required. The data requirements and application of specific approach under a given data condition are discussed in details under respective Chapters. 1.3.4 Availability of sufficiently long record of reliable data in respect of various hydrometeorological and hydrological variables is the key to a dependable estimation of the design flood. In particular, the rainfall and the discharge data observed at specified interval for sufficiently’ long duration from desired number of observation sites are essentially required. The analysis of rainfall data is to be carried out primarily for: a) assessment of probable maximum precipitation (PMP), standard project storm (SPS) or the storm of specified return period; b) time distribution of the design storm; and c) estimation of rainfall hyetograph corresponding to various flood events to be used in derivation of unit hydrograph 4.3.5 The observed discharge data at various locations are analysed to arrive at the response function (generally unit hydrographs of specified unit duration of the river or its tributaries at identified locations) and the rating curves (gauge ~ discharge curves). Short interval gauge.and discharge data observed during high flood are very much desirable to “ensure that the response function appropriately reflects the extreme conditions under which the design floods are required to be estimated. 1.3.6 For estimating the flood of specific return period, probability analysis is carried out. Important steps involved in the process include: (a) consistency checks; (b) checks for randomness; (c) checks for outliers; (d) identification of appropriate frequency distributions; (e) selection of frequency distribution providing the best fit; and (f estimation of floods of specific return period. 4.3.7 Hydrological problems in general and the analysis of flood & design flood estimation in particular requires a multi-disciplinary approach. A proper understanding of (a) various meteorological and hydrological processes involved in formation and propagation of floods and (b) different computational techniques required for analysis is necessary. Apart from the knowledge of various aspects of hydrology and meteorology, understanding of relevant principles and theories of statistics and mathematics is essentially required.1.4 DESIGN FLOOD MANUAL. 1.4.1 With a view to provide an overview of the subject and help the practicing engineers in understanding the various process involved, the then Central Water and Power Commission compiled and published a guideline entitled “DESIGN FLOOD — Recommended Procedures” in the year 1972. The criteria of design flood for different structures, as well as the flood estimating procedures have undergone a number of significant changes subsequent to this publication. Some of the important changes are summarized below. * Criteria for adopting inflow design flood for various hydraulic structures as recommended in the relevant BIS Codes (IS: 11223, IS: 6966 and IS: 7784 etc.) are different than those indicated in the 1972 publication. * Some of the Empirical Formulae recommended earlier aro no more used for estimation of design flood. The use of enveloping curves etc. is also restricted to limited purpose of comparison. * With the availability of better computing facilities, it has become possible to carryout a more rigorous exercise in frequency analysis. Frequency Distributions other than » the Gumbel are also used and the one providing the best fit is ‘selected for estimation of flood of specific return period. * The procedures for selecting design storm, application of clock hour corections, mo‘eture maximization, temporal distribution etc. have undergorre considerable charyes in view of the recommendations of the workshop on “Rationalization of Design Storm Parameters for Design Flood Estimation” held in’ Decernber 1993 (CWC, 1998). * Because of availability of computer, it is now possible to carry out a very detailed analysis of short interval data and adopt a rational approach for derivation of unit hydrograph. Similarly, for synthesis of the flood hydrograph, a relatively larger catchment is divided into appropriate number of sub-basins. 1.4.2. In view of the above changes and the need felt for a more detailed guicance to the designers/planners, the Hydrological Studies Organisation of the Central Water Commission has decided to bring out this “Manual on Estimation of Design Flood”. The Manual covers the procedures at present in vogue and states the design criteria recommended by Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) codes, World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) guidelines and Cential Water Commission publications for adoption in hydrological studies for the preparation -of water resources development projects. Fundamentals of the subjects and mathematical treatment of the concepts has been avoided. Illustrative examples have been included with a view to explain the various steps involved in the analysis.1.5 REFERENCES 1, “IS: 5542 — 1969, Guide for Storm Analysis’, Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi. (1969). 2. “IS: 5477 (Part IV) -1971, Methods for Fixing the Capacities of Reservoirs — Flood Storage”, Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi. (1971) 3, “Estimation of Design Flood - Recommended Procedure", Central Water & Power Commission, Ministry of Irrigation & Power, New Delhi (1972). 4, “Recommendations of Workshop on Rationalization of Design Storm Parameters for Design Flood Estimation’, Hydrology Studies Organization, Central Water Commission, New Delhi, (1993) 5.“WMO No. 168 — Guide to Hydrological Practices’, World Meteorological Organization (1994).BLANKCHAPTER 2 DESIGN CRITERIA 2.1 GENERAL Rational design of hydraulic structures must take into account the risk of flooding and consequent damages. Even though it is desirable to design évery hydraulic structure to withstand the respective largest possible loads /load combinations, normally, attempt is made to economise the design by selecting loads equal or below the maximum levels. However, in case of water storage structures such as dams, the additional considerations of risk to life and property in the settlements downstream of structure, become significant. 2.2 FLOOD PARAMETERS: The decisive factor in the determination of a design flood is that feature or parameter of the flood that can be identified as the major cause of potential damage. The decision as to which is the most relevant flood parameter for a particular case rests with the planner and the designer and should be based on engineering analysis of the given situation. The decisive parameters (WMO 1994) as given in table 2.1 may be used for guidance. Table 2.1 Decisive Parameters For Various Purposes SI. | Structure and /or objectives zs "| Relevant Flood i) No. Parameter 1, | Culverts, Bridges, woirs barrages and surplussing | Peak discharge “I ements for small dams. | ince under bridges /culverts, flood emba road /rail embankments | formatio 3. | Design of flood control reservoirs, and generally for ali | Flood volume and cases where the effect of flood storage on flood | flood hydrograph moderation can be significant, e.g., for design of _| spillway capacities and freeboards on dams. 4. | Cases where superimposition of several floods must be | Flood hydrograph | considered, e.g., flood protection downstream from the | shape. mouth of large tributaries or for reservoir operation during floods, Pe |However, itis to be noted that the decisive parameter for design of dams is decided not by the absolute magnitude of the storage involved or by the catchment size, but by the order of the effect of storage on the flood moderation when routed through the reservoir. 2.3 STORAGE DAMS The criteria for fixing spillway capacity of storage dams, as prevalent in India are covered in IS: 11223 ~ 1985, “Guidelines for fixing spillway capacity’., According to these guidelines, different inflow desigrt floods to be considered for different requirements 01 a) _ Inflow design flood for the safety of the dam b) Inflow design flood for efficient operation of energy dissipation system. ) _ Inflow design flood for checking extent of upstream submergence d) Inflow design flood for checking extent of downstream damage in the valley. 2.3.1. Inflow design flood for the safety of the dam Itis the flood for which, when used with standard specificatior of the dam should be safe against overtopping, structural failure, and tne spillway and its energy dissipation arrangements, if provided for a lower flood, should function reasonably well. The dams are classified according to their size by using the static head (H, measured from minimum tail water level to the full reservoir level) and the gross storage (S) behind the dam as given below. Classification Gross Storage (S) Hydraulic Head (H) (Mm*) (m) he. ‘Small Between 0.5 and 10 Between 7.5 and 12 Intermediate Between 10 and 60 Between 12 and30 Large Greater than 60 Greaier than 30. The classification adopted would be the greater of that indicated by «i two parameters. The inflow design flood for safety of the dam would be select basis of the classification of the dam as follows: above on theSmall 100 year flood Intermediate SPF Large PMF Floods of larger or smaller magnitude may be used if the hazard involved in the eventuality of a failure is particularly high or low. The relevant parameters to be considered in judging the hazard in addition to the size would be : i) distance to and location of the human habitations on the downstream after considering the likely future developments; and ii) maximum hydraulic capacity of the downstream channel at a level at which catastrophic damage is not expected. For more important projects, dam break studies may be done as an aid to the judgement in deciding whether PMF needs to be used or not. Where the studies or judgement indicate an imminent danger to present or future human settlements, the PMF should be used. Any departure from the general criteria as above on account of larger or smaller hazard should be clearly brought out and recorded. 2.3.2. Inflow design flood for efficient operation of energy dissipation system It is a flood, which may be lower than the inflow design flood for the safety of the dam. When this flood is used with standard specifications or other factors affecting the performance, the energy dissipation arrangements are expected to work most efficiently. No damage /breaches in the breaching section, fuse plug, etc., are contemplated during this flood. 2.3.3 Design Flood for Upstream Submergence Consideration This depends on local conditions, type of property and effects of its submergence. For very important structures upstream like power houses, mines, ete. levels corresponding to SPF or PMF may be used; for other structures consideration of smaller design floods and corresponding levels attained may suffice. in general a 25- year flood for land acquisition and 50-year flood for built up property acquisition may be adopted. 2.3.4 Design Flood for Downstream Submergence Consideration This depends on local conditions, the type of property and effects of its submergence. For very important facilities like powerhouses, outflows corresponding to the inflow design flood for safety of the dam, with all spillway gates operative or of that order may be relevant. Normally damage due to physical flooding may not be allowed under this condition, but disruption of operation may be allowed.2.3.5 Other aspects to be considered When a return period flood is used, it is customary to assign limits between Which the estimated value can be said to lie with a certain confidence. A suitable flood value lying between the estimated value and the upper 95 percent confidence value, may be chosen, depending upon the importance of the structure, reliability of the data used, etc. 2.4 BARRAGES AND WEIRS Weirs and barrages, which are diversion structures basically, nave usually small storage capacities, and the risk of loss of lifé and property down stream would rarely be enhanced by failure of the structure. Apart from the damage /loss of structure the failure would cause disruption of irrigation and communications that are dependent on the barrage. Existing practice for design of barrages and weirs are based on BIS Code, IS: 6966 (Part |) - 1989, "Hydraulic Design of Barrages and Weirs — Guidelines Alluvial reaches". For purposes of design of items other than free board, a design flood of 50- year frequency may normally suffice. In such cases where risks and hazards are involved, a review of this criteria based on site conditions may be necessary. For deciding the free board, a minimum of §00-year frequency flood or the standard project flood, may be desirable. 2.5 DIVERSION WORKS - COFFER DAMS The existing practice for design of waterways and canal aqueducts is based on 1S-10084 (Part |) — 1982, "Criteria for design of Diversion Works-Part | Coffer Dams". The relevant paras are reproduced below: “The coffer dam being a temporary structure is normally designed for a flood with frequency less than that for the design of the main structure. The choice of particular frequency shall be made on practical judgement keeping in view the construction period and the stage of construction of the main structure and its importance. Accordingly, the design flood is chosen, For seasonal coffer dams and the initial construction stages of the main struoture, a flood frequency of 20 years or more can be adopted. For coffer dams to be retained for more than one season and for the advanced construction stage of the main structure, a flood of 100 years frequency may be adopted”. 2.6 CROSS DRAINAGE WORKS The existing practice for design of waterways and canal aqueducts is based on 18-7784 (Part |) — 1993, "Code of Practice for design of Cross-Drainage Works". The relevant paras are reproduced below: 10“Design flood for drainage channel to be adopted for cross drainage works should depend upon the size of the canal, size of the drainage channel and location of the cross drainage. A very long canal, crossing a drainage channel in the initial reach, damage to which is likely to affect the canal supplies over a large area and for a long period, should be given proper weightage Cross drainage struct:ires are divided into fear categories depending updn the canal discharge and drainage discharge. Design flood to be adopted for these four categories of cross drainage structures is given in Table 1. Table 1 Design Flood Values Category of Canal Discharge *Estimated Drainage Frequency of structure in m3/sec Discharge in m3/sec Design Flood A 0-05 all discharges 1 in 25 years B 0.5:15 0-150 1 in 50 years Above 150 1 in, 100 years c 15-30 0-100 1 in 50 years Above 100 1 in 100 years D ‘Above 30 0-150 1 in 100 years Above 150 As per Note 2 Notes: 1. The design flood to be adopted as mentioned in this table should in no case, be less than the observed flood. 2. In case of vory large cross drainage structures where estimated drainage discharge is above 150 cumecs and canal design discharge is more than 30 cumecs, the hydrology should be examined in detail and appropriate design flood adopted, which should in no case be less than 1 in 100 ears flood. “This refers to the discharge estimated on the basis of river parameters corresponding to maximum observed flood level. Where possible, the discharges determined by different methods mentioned in 1S:5477 (Part 4): 1971 should be compared to see if any large variations are exhibited and the most reasonable value, giving weightage to the one based on observed data, should be-adopted. Where there are cross drainage works already existing on the same drainage channel, full data regarding the observed flood should be obtained and the new cross drainage works designed, with such modifications in the design flood as may be considered necessary. To safeguard against unforeseen nature of flood intensities the foundation of the cross drainage structure should be checked for a check flood discharge of value twenty percent higher than the design flood given in Table 1.”27 2.8 1 ROAD AND RAILWAY BRIDGES For road bridges, the Indian Road Congress IRC-5: 1998, Section | applies. As per this the design discharge for which the waterway of a bridge is to be designed shall be not less than 50 year return period peak; “shall be discharge from any other recognised method applicable for that area; shall be the discharge found by the area velocity method; by unit hydrograph method; and the maximum discharge fixed by the judgement of the engineers rosonsible for the design with comparison of above mentioned methods is to be adopted”. For railway bridges a 50-yr flood is to be used for smaller bridges carrying railways of lesser importance like minor lines and branch lines. In the case of larger bridges i.e. those carrying main lines and very important rail ines a 100-yr flood is to be adopted as per the railway codes (Indian Railway Standards 1963). REFERENCES Embankment Manual, CW&PC, No. 73, Flood Wing, Central Water & Power Commission, Ministry of Irrigation & Power, New Delhi. (Nov.'1960) Report of Rashtriya Barh Ayog (National Commission on Floods), Govt. of India, Ministry of Energy and Irrigation (Deptt. of Irigation), New Delhi. (1990) Design Criteria for Flood Protection Embankment Sections, Ganga Flood Control Commission, Patna. (1978) 18:11223-1985 "Guidelines for fixing spillway capacity", Indian Standards Institution, Manak Bhawan, New Delhi, 1985) 18:5477 (Part |-IV)-1969 "Methods for Fixing _ the: Capacities of Reservoirs", Indian Standards. Institution, Manak Bhawan, New Delhi. (1971) 1S:7784 (Part !)-1993, IS Code of Practice for Design of Cross drainage works, Indian Standards. Institution, Manak Bhawan, New Delhi. (1993) IS: 6966 (Part |)-1989, Hydraulic Design of Barrages and Weirs—Guidelines, Part | Alluvial reaches, (First revision), Bureau of Indian Standards, Manak Bhawan, New Delhi. (1989).CHAPTER 3 FLOOD ESTIMATION APPROACH 3.1 GENERAL The criteria for design flood to be adopted for different types of hydraulic structures have been prescribed in chapter 2. The design criteria specifies estimation of either or both of the following mentioned floods for consideration. i) Flood of a selected return period il) Standard project flood (SPF) or Probable maximum flood (PMF) The designer is mainly concerned with the peak value of the flood for many structures like bridges, barrages/weirs, cross drainage structures and small storage structures. On the other hand the volume of flood as well as the shape of the flood hydrograph are also needed while designing major/intermediate storage structures. The following two approaches are very commonly adopted for estimating design flood. * Statistical approach, commonly known as Flood Frequency Approach + Hydrometeorological approach, commonly known as the Unit Hydrograph Approach In both these approaches, adequate data inputs are required for processing and ing the design flood outputs. The inputs are generally the long term and short term rainfall and runoff records, annual flood peaks series, catchment or physiographic characteristics etc. The detailed methodology to be adopted in a particular case depends upon the data availability. The procedures are indicated in the flow chart given in fig. 3.1. 3.2 FORMULAE APPROACH When no such data is available, the designer may have have to take the help of flood formulae, developed for different regions. The flood formulae are given in chapter 4. It should be noted that the flood values obtained from these formulae are good only for preliminary estimates, and will have to be firmed up by any other suitable methods after collecting the minimum necessary data. 133.3. REGIONAL APPROACH Generalised studies for determining storm rainfall for specified return period (say 25, 50 & 100 years) and thereupon estimating the design flood of the corresponding frequency render great assistance in quickly arriving at the design flood values of Project where detailed studies are not warranted or can not be taken up due to paucity of data, Such regional studies have been carried out jointly by India Meteorological Department (IMD), Research Design and Standards Organisation (RDSO) Ministry of Railways, Ministry of Transport (MOT) and Central Water Commission (CWC). For this purpose, the country has been divided into 7 zones and 26 hydrometeorologically homogeneous subzones, shown in Fig. 3.2. Detailed rainfall studies for each of the regions hane been carried out, covering the depth duration frequency analysis, and the design storm components such as conversion factors from point to areal rainfall short duration ratios and time distribution factors are derived. Flood Estimation reports, already published for various subzones, by the Directorate of Hydrology (Regional Studies), Central Water Commission, provide the method of the ready to use charts and formulae for computing floods of 25, 50 & 100 years return period of ungauged catchments in the respective regions. As the method and procedure recommended in the subzonal reports are self-explanatory, these are not covered in this manual. A list of these reports is given at Annexure-3.1 3.4 STATISTICAL APPROACH Frequency analysis may be performed on the annual flood peak series either directly observed at the site of study or estimated by the suitable method. Alternatively frequency analysis can be carried out on the available annual storms record of the project area or for the region. Flow chart indicating the various steps involved in the method is given in Fig, 3.3. The technique and procedures of conducting the frequency analysis, including processing of the raw data are described in Chapter 5. The method would be common whether annual flood peaks or annual storm values are dealt with. The judgement of a professional experienced in hydrologic analysis will enhance the usefulness of a flood frequency analysis. The use of this approach is confined to stations where available records are adequate and warrants statistical analysis. The advantages of statistical approach are: ) specialised services of trained hydrometeorologists are not required, il) the method can be computerised to a great extent, iil) associated probability estimates are available. However, the method has certain limitations as: )) _ityields only the peak, not volume or shape of the hydrograph ii) correct inference about the distribution which fits the sample data for a site is crucial as different distributions fitted to same data results in 4different estimated values especially in the extrapolated range and poses problems for the planners for economic appraisal of the project. ili) difficulties in having homogenous data due to developments like construction of new storage structures, u/s. etc. iv) sufficiently long data length to allow reliable estimation of population parameters from the sample data is available only at select locations in the country. v) elements of risk and uncertainty are inherent in any flood frequency analysis. Extension of the results of the frequency analysis of a station (or point) data to an area requires regional analysis. The procedure for cairying out regional flood frequency analysis is also described in Chapter 5. For the purpose of this analysis a statistical homogenous region is defined. This is done by carrying out a homogeneity test involving all the stations in the region. Within such a region the results of point data analysis can be averaged to represent the frequency characteristics of the whole region. The regional frequency curve thus obtained can be used in estimating floods for ungauged basins. Though this approach has been tried here and there, it is not advocated for adoption, in view of the procedure desoribed in 3.3, which is considered more rational and complete (as it provides the peak values as well as the hydrograph shape). 3.5 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL APPROACH In the hydrometeorological method, attempt is made to analyse the causative factors responsible for production of severe floods. Even though many of the components elude precise physical definition, the method is found to be very convenient and sufficiently accurate for practical purposés. The design flood computation mainly involves estimation of a design storm hyetograph, and derivation of catchment response function. The various steps involved in the method are indicated by flow chart given in Fig. 3.4. The catchment response function used can be either a lumped system model or a distributed lumped system model. In the former, a unit hydrograph is assumed to represent the entire catchment area, In the distributed model, the catchment is divided into smaller sub-regions, and the unit hydrographs of each sub-regions applied with channel and/or reservoir routing will define the catchment response. The main advantage of the hydrometeorological approach is that it gives a complete flood hydrograph and this allows making a realistic determination of its moderating effect while passing through a reservoir or a river reach. This approach however is subjected to certain limitations such as: () requirement of long term hydrometeorological data for estimation of design storm parameters ; (i) the knowledge of rainfall process as available today has severe limitations and therefore, physical modelling of rainfall to compute PMP is still not attempted. (ii) maximisation of historical storms for possible maximum favourable conditions is presently done on the basis of surface dew point data. 15,Surface dew point data may not strictly represent moisture availabilty in the upper atmosphere. (iv) availability of SRRG data for historical storms is too poor. (V) many of the assumptions in the UG theory are not satisfied in practice. (vi) many times, data of good quality and adequate quantity is not available for derivation of UG. Nevertheless, the hydrometeorological approach has been found to be a useful tool in design flood studies. Hydrometeorological approach preferably based on site specific information is suggested for the estimation of design flood of intermediate and large dams, especially when the storage has a significant effect on modifying the design flood hydrograph as it flows through the reservoir. 3.6 SELECTION OF METHOD Even though, several factors are relevant when deciding about the method to be used for design flood estimation, data availability and the purpose of study are the most important factors. Since, in general, water resources development cannot wait till hydrological data of adequate quality and in quantity becomes available, flood estimation has to be done using whatever data is available. Depending on data availabilty, the following situations may arise: There is a G&D site at or near the project site and the quality of data observation is good, observation of stage is done in short intervals, observation has been going on for sufficiently for long period that several flood events have been completely observed and rating curves have been well established. ii) There are enough SRRG stations within the catchment to fully represent the catchment short interval rainfall and records for the period for which G&D data has been observed, is available. ii)long term data of rainfall, at least ORG data, of all stations within the meteorologically homogeneous region surrounding the catchment is available for developing design storm estimates, In case, ‘all the three are satisfied, hydrometeorological approach will be feasible. Even if, data described in (iii) is not available, information on historical storms could be obtained from the various publications of IMD, IITM, CWC etc. (iv)Long term data of peak discharges is available and the adjustments that are required for effect of upstream storage structures, are not significant. In this case, frequency approach is implied. (v)No data on short interval runoff is available, but data / information on design storm is available. In this case, hydrometeorological approach, with synthetic UG can be used 16(vi)None of the above mentioned data is available. In this caso, use of flood formulae may be resorted to. 3.7 REFERENCES 1, "WMO No. 168", Guide to Hydrometeorological Practices, World Meteorological Organisation. (1994) 2. Chow, V.T., ‘Handbook of Applied Hydrology”, Mc Graw Hill Inc. (1964). ew York.Annexure 3.1 List of Hydrometeorologically Homogeneous subzones"” ‘Sub- | Name of Subzone Name of sob-zone River Basinsincludedinthe | zone_| (designated earlier) (designated now) subzone pea ia 1 2 3 4 (a) | Luni Basin and thar (Luni | Luni Luni river. Thar (Luni & other rivers and other rivers of Rajasthan and Kutch & Banas ‘Rajasthan and Kutch I oe ve! 4(b)_| Chainbal Ba: ‘Chambal Chamba river 1() | Betwa Basin and other | Betwa Sind, Betwa and Ken rivers at tributaries other South Tributaries of Yamuna 1(@)_| Sone Basin and Right ‘Sone Sono & Tons rivers and other Bank Tributaries eae South Bank Tributaries of Ganga. _| T(e) | Punjab Piains including | Upperindo Ganga Plains | Lower Portion of indus Ghaggar parts of Indus, Yamuna, Sahibi Yamuna, Ganga and Upper Ganga and Ramganga portion of Sirsa, Ramganga, Gomti Basins and Sai rivers. 1) | Ganga Plains including Middle portion of Ganga, Lower Gomti, Ghaghra, Gandak, portion of Gomti, Kosi and middle Kosi and other portion of Mahanadi. T(@)_ | Lower Ganga Piai Lower portion of Ganga, Hoogii including Subarnarekha river system and Subarnarekha and other east flowing rivers between Ganga and baitarani ee a 2(@)_| North Brahmaputra Basin | North Brahamputra North bank Tributaries of Brahamaputta river and Balason z iver setae eS 2(b) | South Brahamputra Basin [2 (0)_| Barak and others Barak _______| Barak, Kalden and Manipur rivers (a) | Mahi including the Mahi and Sabarmati | Mahi and Sabarmati including | dhadhar, Sabarmati and Rupen & Mechhia Bander, Orat rivers of Saurashtra ‘Shetaranij rivers of Kathivad | - « Peninsula. | cm 2 Bie oar oe ‘3(6) | Lower Narmada and Tapi | Lower Narmada and Tapi_ | Lower portion of narmada, Tapi | Basin 3(e) | Upper Narmada and Tapi | Upper Narm (@)_| Mahanadi Basin including | Mahanadi Brahamani and Baitarani __| tivers pean e '3(e)_| Upper Godavari Upper Godavari_____| Upper portion of Godavari basin —_| 3() | Lower Gadavari Basin | Lower Godavari Lower portion of Godavari basin except coastal region i Sh pa 18‘3(q) "| indravati Basin [Indravati Indravati river Sel 3(h) | Krishna subzone including | Krishna hna & Benner rivers except penner Basin except coastal region Coastal region — : 3()_ | Kaveri & East flowing Kaveri Kaveri, Palae and Ponnalyar rivers rivers except coastal (except coastal region) fa) Upper Eastern Coast East flowing coastal rivers betwe flowing rivers between deltas of Mahanadi and Godavari |__| Mahanadi and Godavari | _ rivers a(b) | Coromandal Coast Tower Eastern Coast East flowing coastal rivers, including east flowing ‘manimukta, South penner, rivers between Godavari Cheyyar, paiar, North Penner, and Kaveri Munneru, Paileru, Cundalakama =n — and Krishna Delta 4(c) | Sandy Coroman Belt (east | South Eastern Coast East flowing coastal rivers > flowing rivers between manimuthar, Vaigani, Arjuna, ___| Cauveri and kanyakumari ‘Tamraparni il 5(a)__| Konkan Coast (west Konkan Coast ‘West flowing coastal rivers flowing rivers between between Tapi and maudayal rivers Tapi and Panaji) Kl iiie®) bes! (6) | Malabar Coast (west Malabar Coast ‘West flowing coastal rivers ] flowing rivers between between Mandayal and kanyakumari and pani) n Kanyakurnati inet f 6 ___| Andaman & Nicobar ‘Andaman & Nicobar == a a 7 | J&K Kumaon Hills (indus | Western Himalayas ‘Jhelum, Upper portion of Indus, | Basin) i Ravi and Beas rivers J * Note: The basin are decided on the basis of hydrometeorologic characteristics, basin boundaries etc. and not on the basis of statistical homogeneity etc. 19‘Type and size of structure ! ‘Study design criteria Detailed study not inalise the type of Detailed study BEA 4] Mood required — [>| required a Specifie eatehment : ‘Annual flood peaks at site |_NO,| Use formulae given in ecifc catches yates available 3 Table 41 hydronet data oe s available ae ves} : Yes ¥ ‘Adopt flood frequency Use approach hydrometeorological approach Fig. 3 SELECTION OF METHOD. 20MYANMAR (BURMA) BOM BAY BAY ARABIAN Ij SEA ‘hora wr of ned tsa dae of wahenavce mins mse Kon th ppepi as ne ASscUty etme eo mate st en ep © owen tn et 10 ‘it. sane yn a Ten pa Madu 8) Phe we fo * nein tons toe oes ‘thane ne be tad wen eign is too Fig. 32 HYDROMETEOROLOGICALLY HOMG OUS SURZONES 2| Consistency chesks on the data Data not good for analysis [ Caliee anneal fod peak] jaata | ea ee [Check for the correctness of | [Adjust the |e “observed data data ‘Tret Remove | | Jump Correct trend data oe aes ‘Compute the station statistics ‘Compare the fitness parameter Fig, 3.3 FLOOD FREQUENCY APPROACH 22 Confirm necessary__| HISTORICAL RECORD O} | PHYSIOGRAPHIC AND RAINFALL DATA METEOROLOGICAL FOR RP = ‘ATURES OF REGION| ,FLOOD y F OF SPECIFI CANDIDATE STORMS RET.PERIOD| = |__ —— fog elceece | ms STORM ia ps ‘TRANSPOSITION AREAL EST, FROM POINT] |FOR [$$ RAINFALL | {SPF y STORM MAXIMISATION PMP TIME DIST. & CRITICAL SEQUENCING DESIGN RF HYETOGRAPH y__DEDUCTION FOR LOSSES DESIGN ERH [ CONVOLUTION WITH UG y ADD BASEFLOW } DESIGN FLOOD HYDROGRAPH FIG. 3.4 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL APPROACH 23BLANKCHAPTER 4 FLOOD FORMULAE AND ENVELOPE CURVES 4.1 EARLY APPROACHES Hydrology in its initial period of development was largely based on empirical approaches. The earlier method used for estimating the design flood for any river valley project was perhaps by application of a factor of safety to the maximum observed flood or maximum historical flood. The magnitude of maximum flood experienced in the river was estimated from flood marks ascertained from memory of local inhabitants with reference to ancient trees, temples or other structures. Such estimates could at best be considered an aid to judgement, and not as a definite figure of design flood. This method apart from the uncertainties of the basic data, had a draw back due to the element of personal judgement of the user in selection of the factor of safety. 4.2. EMPIRICAL FORMULAE In the absence of rational methods of design flood estimation, the design engineers had been applying the age old techniques of empirical formulae like Dickens, Ryves, Inglis, etc. These methods are inherently deficient. These formulae do not take into account the varying physiographic, meteorologic and hydrologic characteristics from catchment to catchment. Moreover, the empirical formulae do not provide the frequency estimate which is necessary for ascertaining the risk involved. ‘An urgent need was, therefore, felt in the country to fill up this gap and evolve a rational, scientific and sound hydrologic design for estimation of frequency flood for the design of culverts, bridges, cross drainage structures like acqueducts, etc., minor dams and tanks on streams with small and medium catchments. 4.3 REGIONAL FLOOD FORMULAE The limitations in the empiical /rational formulae have been taken care of in the Design Flood Estimation reports published by the Central Water Commission. The regional flood formulae have been developed to estimate 25, 50 and 100 year return period flood values. For this purpose country has been divided into 26 hydrometeorological homogenous subzones. Data on small streams have been used to make it applicable to small and medium catchments where the economic constraints do not justify collection of hydrometeorologic data at all sites where any hydraulic structure is proposed. The meteorologic variability from region to region has been 25accounted in these formulae. Other factors such as shape of the catchment, slope of the stream etc., which have influence on the flood peak, have also been included in the formulae thereby improving over most of the limitations of the earlier formulae. The regional flood formulae are given in Table 4.1 4.4 ENVELOPE CURVES Further thought and subsequent studies towards the development of a more rational method by utilizing the data available for a number of basins led to the theory that the maximum floods per unit area experience in one basin is quite likely to be experienced in nearby basin in the same region having same climatological and physiographic characteristics. Based on this theory observed maximum discharges for a number of catchments in homogeneous hydrometeorological regions were used to develop envelope curves. In early fifties, Kanwar Sain and Karpov collected data of various Indian rivers and drew two envelope curves one to suit basins of southern India and the other for those of northern and central India The PMF figures for a number of projects estimated by Central Water Commission and other organisations during the period 1980-91 have been utilised for developing envelope curves for PMF peaks. The upper envelope, drawn corresponding to the envelope of World Record Floods, and average line and lower envelope, which were drawn are shown in Fig. 4.1. These curves correspond to following equations: Upper envelopes Qu = 1585 A°?> Average line, Qav = 398 Aes Wis Ve Lower envelope, Q, = 100 A”® where Q is PMF in cumecs and A is catchment area in sq. km These curves have been recommended to be used for prioritising the existing large dams for further detailed hydrological investigations for dam safety assurance 4.5 REFERENCES . Chow, V.T., “Handbook of Applied Hydrology”, Mc Graw Hill Inc., New York, 1964. K.N. Mutreja, “Applied Hydrology”, Tata Mc Graw Hill Publising Co. Ltd., New Delhi, 1990. CW&PC, “Estimation of Design Flood-Recommended Procedures”, CW&PC, New Delhi, Sept. 1972. CWC, “DSARP-Guidelines for Assigning Priorities for Phase | Inspection of Existing - Dams in India", CWC, New Delhi, 1992. (Circulated for Official Use). 5. CWC, Flood Estimation Reports for various subzones, published in different years. - © Ne 26yas Weed pools (ae 2vezens og 150) ease weUNI Tin's'y 2°p°3"9-e 108M surg 9998 20015 oe) ~ Se poe BpBLLN mo} a4 orro zis0 alco caro Zio evo sso eo80 ero asco 90c0 so S90 18209 mgerew pub ue 120 921 9600 coBD LeBL seco wo veri fssro ico oocv eogo sea 3200 883 sie0 ooo vero stce seo eszo veo froze zo sei cao sero swwO ews ess0 1920 6960 Bt eso ovo zo meso cael 90 1260 SO uenepeg 200 000 sro e190 case ooo uso uice foooo ovo ono sro s3e0 1962 uenepog sed] sooo v200 e200 erao eazo fiero oo wri ss00 g60 zico seg peveven cero oso ceo, nde pur epewzon sodcn| eso wo sso 60 ths g190 ost 05¢0 seureges oH ory ssoo ezs0 ais zero sero svi |eoro 100 auto 600 vero s16t voreg Panducusg snes] S860 cleo 4050 080 sie0 reso sero |ecro seco sivi rico siso oe90 areuoyee won| ‘geyene won| oyers on ‘aygeyene on sues 20ve5 sone] vero feo Gros LAZO sora soot e550 oyacrne on 299 wed - sues e6veD arppM| 960 sero rizo_ isco sora S60 sivo ‘acre on aohang — weg e6ve9 cout de] 0000 seco e290 zovob ooo toro vies oo erro sero sor0- cigs ues} oso wee oo 2960 oat lego 1980 esi caso eco eev0 ergo ema} 1960 Weco 1160 oz owt ais siz 0x60 ziv0 waco soso ossz qunuo] r a aera se al OOTOTOTSURDIBOS DEO TOT SUSOD 0H sac aueu auszans| seinuuo, pools jeuoiBay Ye een PiPME PEAK (Cumees) ENVELOPE OF WORLD RECORD FLOODS ery 5 @ 1585 A PMP PEAKS ASSESSED DURING 19801991 0 FOR CATCHMENTS IN INDIA BY VARIOUS FLOOD INVESTIGATORS AVERAGE LINE: @ 2398 4°07? a LOWER ENVELOPE *Ryn 100 A 7 = pee 3 Tce r 0 0 a0 10 1 1 18 CATCHMENT AREA (26K) ENVELOPE CURVES FOR PM F DEVELOPED BY:CWC. FIG 4-1 28CHAPTER 5 FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS 5.1 GENERAL ‘As can be seen from design flood criteria described in Chapter ~ 2, apart from the probable maximum flood (PMF) and standard project flood (SPF) adopted for large and medium storage dams, floods of different return periods (viz., 25-year, 50-year, 00-year etc.) are also used in the design of barrages, weirs, small storage works, cross drainage works, flaod protection works, bridges etc. and for river diversion during construction of a project. The return period floods are estimated by statistical analysis using the availabie hydrological data at or around the site of the project / structure. The general practice is to perform the statistical analysis on the values of the peak flood discharges. As such, the method yields only the peak value of the design flood and does not offer any information about the volume of the flood or the variation of flow with respect to time. Frequency analysis could also be carried out on storm rainfall values or on flood volume values, wherever considered necessary. Frequency studies interpret.a past record of events to predict the future probabilities of occurrence and estimate the magnitude of an event corresponding to a specific return period. If the streamflow records are of sufficient length and reliability, they may yield satisfactory estimates. In many cases, however, records are of short periods, and contain relatively afew events. Such records, when analysed, are likely to lead to inconsistent results as they may not represent the characteristics of the long term record: Furthermore, for the estimation of flood flows of large return periods, it is often necessary to extrapolate the magnitude outside the observed range. The accuracy of the estimate obviously reduces with the degree of extrapolation. Though a limited extrapolation. to about twice the length of the-record is expected to yield reasonable accuracy, we are generally required to extrapolate streamflow record of say 40 — 50 years, to estimate 1,000 or even 10,000 year return period floods The basic concepts of flood frequency analysis and the methods currently in use are described in this chapter in a manner suited to engineers. The procedures of processing the data as inputs to the analysis are also described. The flow chart indicating the various steps to be followed in flood frequency analysis is given at Fig.- 3.3. lilustrative examples (caso studies) are also included at the end of the chapter for an easy understanding of the methodology and the steps of determining the return period flood. 5.2 THE CONCEPT Basic to alll flood frequency analysis is the concept that there is a population value that may become flood values. This population includes all the values that could 29take place, and is the set of all possible results. For flood flows, this population is made up of continuous values, generally considered to be bounded on the low end with zero flows and unbounded at the upper end. These values follow a frequency distribution. Both past and future events are assumed to come from this distribution and that the process (distribution) is unchanging with time (stationary). The order of the events is random, therefore the events are independent. One cannot, in most instances, analytically determine which probability distribution should be used. Certain limit theorem such as the central limit theorem and Extreme value theorems might provide guidance. One should also evaluate the experience that has been accumulated with the various distributions and how well they describe the phenomena of interest. Certain properties of the distribution can be used in screening distributions for possible applications in a particular situation. For example the range of distribution, the general shape of the distribution and the skewness of the distribution many times indicate that a particular distribution may or may not be applicable in a given situation. When two or more distributions appear to describe a give data set equally well, the distribution that has been traditionally used should be selected unless there is contrary overriding reasons for selecting another distribution. However, if a traditionally used distribution is inferior, its use should not be continued just because “ that is the way it's always been done”. The fundamental assumptions in flood frequency are: a. Sample is representative of population; b. Peak flow are independent; and ©. Allthe peak flows in a given sample belong to a homogeneous population. 5.3 SOME BASIC STATISTICAL TERMS Before going into the methodologies adopted in the frequency analysis, some relevant statistical terms used herein are defined / explained below: Population- A finite or infinite collection of objects under consideration is called a population. Sample- A sub-population drawn from a larger population constitutes a sample, the size of which is the number of units it contains. If a sample is representative of a population, important conclusions about the population can often be inferred from analysis of the sample. Array- An array is an arrangement of raw numerical data in ascending or descending order of magnitude. The difference between the largest and ‘smallest number is called the range of the data. Variable- It represents one or more characteristics of a segment of a population. It has at least one property which can be measured and numerically defined. In hydrology for example the variable, usually designated by X may be depth of rainfall, annual flood peak, minimum flow etc. An individual observation of the 30value x of any variable X is known as a variate. Thus the set of all the “annual floods” recorded at a station for 100 years is often regarded in practice a population of 100 units (observations); the set of flood observed for the first ten years Is a sample of this population; the size of this sample is 10 years. If we characterise each annual flood by its maximum daily discharge this constitutes a statistical variable X. Each annual flood could also have been characterised by other variables such as maximum stage or 1-day volume etc. Frequency distribution- It is a pattern of distribution that is obtained by plotting the number of occurrences or the frequency against the variate as the abscissa. Probability- It is the number of occurrences of a variate divided by the total number of ‘occurrences. It is usually designated as p. The total probability for all variates should be equal to unity or 3p = 1. Distribution of probabilities of all variates is called probability distribution. Fig. 5.1 shows the frequency or probability distribution curve. The ordi-nates of the frequency distribution and its corresponding probability distribution are proportional to each order. The cumulative probability curve is shown in Fig.5.2. This curve represents the probability that the random variable has a value equal to or less than certain assigned value say x. The cumulative probability is designated as P(X < x). Thus the probability of X being equal to or greater than x is equal to 1 — P(X 0 is said to be skewed to the right (with a long tail on the right side), while a distribution with <0 is said to be skewed to the lef. 32Return period- Return period (or recurrence interval) is the average interval, in year, between events which equal or exceed a given magnitude. It is usually designated as T. ‘The event which can be expected to occur, on an average, once every n years is "the n-year event — the 50-years flood say. It should be noted that the concepts of retum period and n-year event contain no implication that an event of any given magnitude will occur at constant, or even approximately constant intervals of n years. Both terms refer to the expected average frequency of occurrence of an event over a long period of years. For instance, in a long period of say 1000 years, there will be 1000/N floods equal to or larger than n-year flood. There is No indication that these floods will occur at more or less regular intervals of n- years. Indeed, it is entitely possible, although improbable, for all such floods to occur in consecutive years. Probability paper- A probability paper is a specially ruled paper, on which the ordinate usually represents the magnitude of the flood and the abscissa represents the probability P, or the return period 7, The ordinate and abscissa scales are so designed that the distribution plots more nearly on a straight line, permitting better definition of the upper and lower parts of the frequency curve. The probability paper is used to linearize the distribution so that data to be filled appear close to the straight line. The extreme value and the log- normal probability papers are used for linearization of the extreme value and log- normal distribution. 5.4 HYDROLOGICAL DATA Hydrological data are mostly available as samples of limited size. Using statistical principles, the needed information (such as mean, standard deviation, skewness co-efficient, kurtosis co-efficient etc.) are extracted from the available sample data and are assumed to be the characteristics of the population. Whatever, be the length of the sample, it cannot exhaust alll possible events of a variable. Therefore, the sample is assumed to be representative of the population. In the application of the statistical analysis methods, it is assumed that the occurrences are individual events independent of each other i.e., they are assumed to be evolved from a purely random process, A time series of events is said to be homogeneous if it does not exhibit systematic variations in time (@.g,, cyclic variation, an increasing or a decreasing trend or a jump). The factors which affect the homogeneity of peak flows are the developments in the catchment over time such as deforestation, urbanisation, flood control works, earthquake etc. It may be difficult to find data which conform to all the requirements. As a preliminary step, the basic data should be properly processed, screened and adjusted to remove, as far as possible, any non-conformities that may exist. Two types of sample data namely (i) annual peak flood series and (ji) partial duration series may be used for flood frequency analysis. The annual peak flood series 33which is commonly used, is a selection of the maximum peak flood value from each year. Such a selection excludes the second maximum value of flood peak of a particular year even though this may be higher than the maximum of some other years. ‘Annual peak flood series, however, may be considered to be purely random. In partial duration series, all the events above a certain threshold are included in the analysis. However, care must be taken not to include those peaks which are dependent as the assumption of randomness would be violated. In the case of annua’ peak flood series, a good theoretical basis exists for extrapolation but not in the case of partial duration series. Use of partial duration series is, therefore, restricted to estimate frequencies within the range of observations. 5.4.1 Data Processing Discharge at a site is generally observed once daily. The water levels are recorded three times a day during the non-monsoon period and on hourly basis during the monsoon period. The data year book or such record of historical data generally contain the daily observed discharges which may not include the instantaneous value of the peak discharges. Therefore, it must be ascertained before adopting the series of the peak floods that the values of the peak discharges correspond to the maximum observed water level on the basis of the hourly record or as derived from the automatic water level recorder. Wherever the water level observations are not made at short intervals, the information in respect of highest water marks of each year should be collected and the same should be appropriately used to estimate the peak flood. In addition, the following points should also be looked into: a) Any changes in the location of the discharge observation sites or changes in the ‘zero of the gauge’ etc. b) Changes in the discharge measurement techniques c) > Changes in the stage discharge relations The above aspects alongwith the effects of man-made changes in the regime of flow should be investigated and adjustments made as required. 5.4.2, Data Checking The processed data are to be analysed to ensure that: the fundamental assumptions of frequency analysis are satisfied. The data series is to be checked for randomness and presence of trends, jump and outliers. 5.4.2.1 Randomness For probabilistic process, the sequence of occurrence of the variable involved is ignored and chance of their occurrence is assumed to follow a definite probability distribution in which the variables are considered to be purely random. In a random process, the value of the variate does not depend on previous or next value i.., all the 34values are occurring purely by chance. Some of the tests for checking the randomness of the data are: a) Turning point test, b), The Difference sign test, c) Run test, d) Rank correlation test, and e) _ Serial correlation test. The ‘Turing Point Test’ and the ‘Serial Correlation Test’ are very commonly used. The details of the above mentioned test are available in most of the text books on Slatistics. Further, the ‘Serial Correlation Test is illustrated in the case study given in Annexure — 5.1 and 5.2 at Fig. A5.1.1 and Fig. A5.2.1. 5.4.2.2 Trend Due to a number of natural causes’ or human interference etc. there may be changes in the flow characteristics. There may be gradual changes in flow characteristics due to deforestation or afforestation or land management processes. The gradual aggradation or degradation of the river regime may cause changes in the rating curves and hence the water level estimates. Such systematic and continuous change over an entire sample in any parameter of a series is called trend which may be rising or falling in nature. The data series has to be analysed to check for the presence of trend and appropriately corrected: if the trend is signifipant before using the same for flood frequency analysis. Trend can be obtained either by regression analysis or by moving averages. An essential part of the concept of trend is that the movement over a fairly long period is smooth. It means that for all practical purposes, the trend component can be represented by a polynomial. Some of the tests for checking the significance of the presence of the trend are: a) The difference sign test, ; b) Kendall rank correlation test; and c) Regression test. 54.23 Jump Certain natural mishap such as forest fire, earthquake or major landslide etc. may cause a sudden change in the flow characteristics. Similarly, the implementation of a major water resources development scheme results in certain changes in the characteristics of flow in the downstream reaches. Such phenomenon is called “Jump”. The presence of jump in a data series may be examined by visual inspection of the plot of the data. Further, the data series may be divided into two or more sub-sets and the characteristics of each of the various sub-sets may be compared to check for the presence of jump. The significance of the presence of jump in mean of the flows, if any, is generally checked with the help of test. 355.4.2.4 Outliers, Outliers are data points, which depart significantly. from the trend of the remaining data of the sample. The retention, modification, deletion of these outliers can significantly affect the statistical parameters ‘computed from data, especially from small samples. All procedures for treating outliers ultimately require judgement involving both mathematical and hydrological considerations. The detection and treatment of high and low outliers are described below. If the station skew is gréater than + 0.4, tests for high outliers are considered first. {f the station skew is less than -0.4, tests for low outliers are considered first. Where the station skew is between + 0.4, tests for both high and low outliers should be applied before eliminating any outliers from the data set. ‘The following equation is used to detect high outliers Xyak+KyS ==high outlier threshold in log: ‘units % =mean logarithm of systematic peaks (x's) excluding zero flood events, peaks below gauge base, and outliers previously detected. S _=standard deviation of x's Ky, =K value from the Table (Annexure 5.3)of K values for sample size'N if the logarithm of peak in a sample is greater than Xq_ then they are considered high outliers. If a flood peak of the sample is found to be greater than Xj, the sample should be compared with historic flood data and flood information at nearby sites to check whether the data detected as high outlier is, in fact, a historical data before 0 5.5.1.6 Gumbel Distribution Gumbel distribution is a member of family of Extreme Value distributions with the value of parameter k = 0. It also known as EV | distribution, It is a two parameter distribution and is widely used in hydrology. ‘The POF is given as 1 eal Eta] and CDF is given as Feaon- oof E(X) =u+0.S77Za wa? 6 when, Cy =1.139 Where u and a are location and shape parameters respectively. Var(X) 5.5.1.7 Summary of Characteristics of Various Distribution The basic characteristics of the commonly used probability distributions in india are summarised below, which may help in choice of appropriate probability distribution. Computer programmes are available for detailed analysis in respect of these probability distributions. 41BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF COMMONLY USED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS Distribution Parametertobe — Characteristics of the Distribution estimated” Normal wand o T. Skew should be close to zero 2. Kurtosis should be close to 3 Log normal jy and oy 1. Skew of original data must be positive with 2- 2. Skew of logs should be close to zero parameters 3. Kurtosis of logs should be close to 3 Log normal Xo, ply and oy 1. Skew of original data must be positive with 3- 2. Skew of logs of (x ~ xo) should be close to zero parameters 3. Kurtosis of logs of (xi ~ x0) should be close to 3 Pearson Xo, Band y type-lll Log Yo, B and y Pearson type Ill Gamma Bandy Gumbel Vanda Skew should preferably be around 1.139 Kurtosis should be close to 5.400 5.6 PARAMETER ESTIMATION There are many ways for estimating population parameters from samples of data (Haan, 1977). Some of them are: a. Graphical Procedures; b. Matching Selected Points; c. Method of Moments; and d. Maximum Likelihood In the graphical procedure, a line is drawn through the plotted points and then the parameters are calculated by using certain points on the line. The procedure is arbitrary and depends upon the individual carrying out the analysis. However, the method can be used with advantage by an experienced individual when very few observations are available. The method of matching point is not a commonly used method but can produce reasonable first approximation to the parameters. The procedure can be valuable in 2getting initial estimates for the parameters to be employed in iterative solutions that can arise when the method of moments or maximum likelihood are used. Method of moments is most commonly used for estimating the parameters of a probability distribution. For a distribution with m parametrs, the procedure is to equate the first m moment of the distribution to the first m sample moments. This results in m equations which can be solved for the m unknown parameters. Moments about the origin, the mean or about any ottier point can be used. Maximum Likelihood : For n random observations xX;, x2)... Xa » their joint probability distribution is fy (Xp X2yo--0 Xn i Of) @ ---»Om)- Since for a random sample the x’s are independent, their joint probability distribution can be written ffxi; O1, O vena On) 482. Oa, 1202 Onde fo ty O2, «= On). This expressional is proportional to the probability that the particular random sample would be obtained form the population and is known as the likelihood function. The m parameters are unknown, The values of these m parameters that maximise the likelihood that the particular sample is the one that would be obtained ifn random observations were selected from f,(x; 61, 02, -..... An) are known as maximum likelihood estimators. The parameter estimation procedure becomes one of finding the values of 6), @ ......0m that maximise the likelihood function. This can be done by taking the partial derivative of L(0,, 0, ...... Aq) with respect of each of ’s and setting the resulting expression equal to zero. ‘These m equations in m unknowns are then solved for the m unknown parameters. Parameter estimation by maximum likelihood (ML) has optimal properties when the sample(s) on which it is used actually are drawn from the distribution assumed in the procedure. If the sample is from a different distribution the optimal properties are by no means guaranteed. Since it is distribution specific it may not be robust. Parameter estimation by ordinary moments, while very popular among hydrologists, is known to be biased and inefficient especially with three-parameter distributions. ‘The exact corrections for bias are not easy to summarise in simple formula. Parameter estimation by probability weighted moments (PWM), which is relatively new, it is easy to apply as ordinary moments, is usually unbiased and is almost as efficient as ML. Indeed in small samples PWM may be as efficient as ML. With a suitable choice of distribution PWM estimation also contributes to robustness and is attractive from that point of view. Another attraction of PWM method is that it can be easily used in regional estimation schemes. 5.7 USE OF PROBABILITY PAPERS ‘A primary purpose in plotting a set of ordered observations on probability paper is to simplify the inspection of their distribution. Probability paper for a given cumulative distribution F(x) of a random variable X ( The annual flood peak series) is so designed Bthat a plot of F(x) against X is a straight line. If a set of data follows a straight line on Probability paper then the data is said to follow the distribution for which the probability Paper has,been developed and flood corresponding to any probability can be estimated very easily by extrapolating the straight line. Probability papers can be prepared for any distribution based only on two parameters. Any additional parameter such as coefficient of skewness must be constant. Therefore, probability paper for normal, log normal and Gumble distributions are readily available & are shown in Figs 5.3, 5.4 and 5.5 respectively. For other distributions, say Pearson type Ill or Log Pearson type Ill, a unique probability paper corresponding to each value of skewness can be prepared. 5.7.1 Plotting Positions Determining the probability to be assigned to a data point is commonly referred to as determining the plotting position. Various plotting position formulae have been recommended for assigning probability to a given set of flood peak data by different investigators from time to time. Some of the plotting position formulae are listed in Table 5.1. The table 5.1 also gives the cumulative probability probability F(X2x) where the rank of the event X is m (out of the total WV events) when arranged in descending order. Weibull formula is most commonly used to determine the probability to be assigned to a data point. With availability of ready made software for frequency analysis, the probability plot appears to be redundant but these plots are very useful: a. in assessing the suitability of the distributions selected for fitting the data; and b. in identifying the outliers. : However, the choice of plotting position formulae and the subjectivity dnvolved in drawing the population line through the plotted points may affect the estimatés. Table : 5.1. PLOTTING POSITION FORMULAE S.No | Formula Px) 1. California miN 2. Hazen (m-0.5)/N 3. Weibull m/(N+1) 4. Beard (m-0.31)/(N+0.38) 5. Chegodajew —_(m-0.3)/(N+0.4) 6. Gringorton (m-0.44)/(N+0.12) 7. Blom (tm-0.3/8)/(N+-1/4) 8 Tukey (rm-1/3)/(N¥-1/3) 9. Benard (m-0.3)/(N+0.2) 10. Cunnane (m-0.4)/(N+0.2) 11. Adamowski___(m-0.25)/(N+0.5) 445.8 TEST FOR GOODNESS OF FIT The judgement whether or not a particular probability distribution adequately describes the probability distribution of a given sample can be arrived at with the help of following commonly used tests. 1) Chi Square Test 2) Kolomogorov-Smirnov Test Some text books also describe thie use of D-index test for the purpose but this is not very commonly used in practice. 5.8.1 Chi Square Test : The chi-square fest is bne of the most commonly used test for goodness of fit of observed data to specified theoretical frequency distribution. This test makes a comparison between the actual number of observations and the expected number of observations (expected according to the distribution under test) that fall in the class intervals. The test statistic is calculated as : 4s (N= N/A) ar (w-w,,} N, where k= number of class intervals for sample size N, N; = sample absolute frequency in i" class interval, and Nps = expected value of the absolute frequency in the i" class interval. The statistic 7. has a chi-square distribution with k-2 degrees of freedom and is obtained form chi-square table for o: level of significance (Annexure 5.5). The x? test prescribes the critical value of x”: for a given a so that for 2 < x%c , the null hypothesis of a good fit is accepted, otherwise for = xc . itis rejected. There is no hard and fast rule regarding this test in general. The number of class intervals should be k = and the expected values of absolute frequencies should be Nu =5. The length of class interval may be equal or unequal. 5.8.2 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test This test is distribution-free test widely used in hydrology. This test is conducted as follows; 451. Let Fp(x) be the completely specified theoritical cumulative probability distribution function under the null hypothesis. 2. Let F,(x) be the sample cumulative density function based on n observations. For any observed x , Fs(x) = k/n where k is the number of observations less than or equal to x. 3. Determine the maximum deviation D, defined as D = max | F(x) - Fa(X) | 4. If, for the chosen significance level athe observed value of D is greater than or equal to the critical value of the ‘Kolmogorov-Smimov statistic, D.(n) tabulated in table 5.2, the hypothesis is rejected. This test can be conducted by calculating the quantities Fp(x) and F(x) at each observed point. The data should not be grouped for this test. The Fp(x) in this test is a completely specified, cumulative probability distribution and so no parameter for the distribution must be estimated form the observed data. Table : 5.2 KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV TEST STATISTIC D.(n) Sample Size, n 0.01 5 0.67 10 0.49 15 0.40 20 0.35 25 0.32 30 0.29 35 0.27 40 0.25 45, 0.24 50 0.23 Large N 4.63/ VN 5.8.3 Confidence Intervals A parameter x is estimated by x. The statistic x is a random variable having a probability distribution. If x can take on any value in some continuous range, then Probability(x = x) is zero. Rather than a point estimate for x, it may be more desirable to get an interval estimate such that, the probability that this interval contains x can be specified. Such an interval is known as a confidence interval. This statement can be written as Prob(L Yuet and a trough as a value y; such that Yer > Vis Your ‘the test of randomnéss can be adopted as follows. The total “score” i.e., the total number of peaks and troughs in the data series works out to be 61 (Table — A5.1.1). The-total number of data is 84. Therefore the mean and the variance are calculated as follows. Mean = Zw -2) Where N is the total number of the data. For N=84, Mean value -204 =2)=54.67 (16N - 29) 19x84-29 90 Variance = =14.61 The normal deviate is less than 1.96 i.e., the value corresponding to 5% probability. Therefore, there is no real reason to suggest that the 84 annual peak Normat Variate = 21=54-51 _ 9,433 14.61 flow values form other than a random series. 50Table-AS.1.1 Estimation of Peaks and Troughs in the Data SI.No. Peak flowin cumecs Score SI. No. Peak flow in Score cumecs tT 3,653 = 43. 9,203 7 2: 5,635 1 44, 5,239 0 3 3,653 1 45. 4,814 1 4. 6,683 1 46. 5,635 1 5. 5,635 1 47. 5,352 0 6. 7,079 1 48. 2,704 1 Zi 4,332 0 49. 3,285 0 8. 3,766 1 50. 3,931 1 9. 5,125 1 51. 3,191 1 10. 1,982 1 52. 5,221 1 11. 5,182 1 53: 4,698 1 12, 4,248 1 54. 5,407 1 13. 4,587 1 55. 5,224 1 14, 4,446 0 56. 6,716 1 15. 3,398 1 57. 3,189 1 16. 6,711 1 58. 3,990 0 17. 5,412 0 59. 5,701 1 18. 3,455 1 60. 4,803 1 19. 4,000 1 61. 6,308 1 20. 2,398 1 62. 3,643 1 21. 588 0 63. 17,227 1 22. 6,938 1 64. » 2,125 1 23. 2,033 1 65. 7,697 1 24. 5,040 1 66 2,567 1 25. -- 3,299 1 67. 6,516 1 26. 332 0 68. 5,432 0 27. 5,182 1 69. 4,244 1 28. 3,993 0 70. 10,726 1 29. 3,138 1 71 2,842 1 30. 5,805 1 72. 4,246 0 31. 3,093 0 73. 7,593 1 32. 1,723 1 74. 4,056 1 33. 3,656 0 7. 4,172 1 34, 6,598 1 76, 2,474 1 35. 5,274 0 7. 6,960 1 36. 2,294 1 78. 5,182 0 37. 2,384 0 79. 2,461 1 38. 3,819 0 80. 9,010 1 39. 7,808 1 81 4,192 1 40. 4,531 0 82. 7,166 1 41. 3,256 1 83. 2,649 200 42. 4,984 0 84, 6,629 : 51A5.1.2Dependence Structure of the Data Series For quantifying the dependence structure of the data series, the auto- correlation method has been used. Using a simple computer programme, the values of the auto-correlation co-efficient for different lag has been computed and is given in Table — A5.1 Table-A5.1.2 Computation of Auto—Correlation Coefficients SNo_ Lag tk SNo lag tk 1 1 0.256 9. 9 0.040 2 2 0.134 10. 10 0.125 3. 3 0,060 11. 11 0.056 4. 4 0.110 12. 12 0.031 5. 5 0.092 13, 13 -0.044 6 6 -0.252 14, 140.015 7 7» 0,282 15. -15 0.053 8 8 049 It may be seen that the values of the auto-correlation coefficient for the different lags are very low. For testing the significance of the correlation coefficient for different lags, the range has been computed. For n=84, the range works out to be (40.2005 to -0.2245). The correlogram is given in Fig. AS.1.1. In view of above, r« may be assumed to be insignificant. ‘AS.1.3Consistency of the Data The plot of the annual peak flood data is shown in Fig. A5.1.2. The visual inspection of the data indicates a certain degree of variation in the average value of the peak flood in the later years of observation. The plot exhibits, in general, a slightly rising trend. However, with a view to examine the possibility of variations in the characteristics of the data in the pre-construction and the post-construction periods, the data series has been bifurcated in two parts — one for the period from 1909 to 1959 and the other for the period from 1960 to 1992. The salient features of ‘the two data series are illustrated in Fig. AS5.1:3. AS5.1.4Analysis for Checking the Presence of Jump and Trends With a view to evaluate the presence of the features like the trend or the jump in the series, analysis has been carried out by using the moving average method. The results of three analysis indicate clearly the presence of jump in the data series. Similarly a slight trend is also exhibited. Figs. A5.1.4—A5.1,7 illustrate the results of one such analysis. 52The results of the analysis do not suggest any specific change in the daia characteristics in the post-construction stage. However the changes in the characteristics of the data over the time are clearly depicted. The test for-the presence of the trend in the data suggests a value of t-0.921 for the Spearman trend analysis (which is based on the rank correlation analysis of the given data series) rejecting the hypothesis of the data series having the presence of trend. Therefore, it can be concluded that for the purpose of the flood frequency analysis, the data series can be considered to be free from trend. The test for the Presence of jump indicates that the jump is present in the data series and that the same has to be accounted for in further analysis for the flood frequency analysis, However, a close scrutiny of the data indicate that the jump as illustrated in Figs, A5.1.8-A5.1.11 are mainly because of specific peak flood value of the order of 17,227 cumecs. Once the specific annual peak flood data is removed from the series, the presence of the jump js not exhibited as may be seen in Figs, A5.1.8- AS.1.9. In order to examine the possibility of the specific annual flood peak data of 17,227 cumecs being erroneous, the corresponding values of the rainfall record were scanned. The peak value has been reported to be observed on August 6, 1971. The flood hydrograph for the period from 0300 Hrs of 6.8.71 to 2400 Hrs‘of 7.8.71 indicates a total volume of 99.93 mm of runoff against the average value of 250.00 mm of the rainfall recorded at the various stations in the basin. Thus the runoff Guring the specific extraordinary flood event is only about 40% of the rainfall falling over the basin suggesting that reporied value of the annual peak flood of 17,227 cumecs can not be considered to be erroneous. A5.1.5Test for Outliers In order to check whether some of the data of flood events in the given series aré outliers, the following analysis is carried out. The statistics of the log transformed annual peak discharge series are computed, Mean Logarithm 8.407 Standard Deviation of Logs 0.410 Skewness Co-efficient of Logs 0.144 Number of years 84 Since the value of the skewness co-efficient lies between -0.40 and +0.40, the test for both the low outliers as well as high outliers are to be carried out. AS.1.5.1 Check for Low Outliers The low outlier threshold (X.) is computed by 5 X,=X-K,S 533where,X. = — Lowoutlier threshold X= Mean of the log transformed series S = __ Standard deviation of the log transformed series Ky = Outliers test K values for 10 percent significance level for a Normal distribution X= :8.407-2.957 x 0.410 = 7.195 Q. = antilog (7.195)= 1,332 cumec There are no value below this threshold value. Therefore, the low outliers are not present. AS1.5.2 Check for High Outliers The high outlier threshold (X})) is computed by X,=X+KyS where, Xi High outlier threshold x Mean of the log transformed series s Standard deviation of the log transformed series Ky Outliers test K values for 10 percent significance level for a normal distribution Xe 8.407+2.957 x 0.410 = 9.619 Qu = antilog (9.619) = 1,051 cumec The 1971 flood peak value of 17,227 cumecs exceeds this value. However, as discussed earlier, the meteorological conditions at the time of occurrence of the 1971 peak flood value suggest the possibility of occurrence of such an event. Further, the historical records do not indicate any observed or estimated flood value of a higher magnitude than that of the year. 1971.The possibility of any change in the flow pattern after the construction of the dam is not supported by any statistical analysis of the data. In view of above, the whole data series of 84 years has been considered for the purpose of the flood frequency analysis. A5.1.6Statistical Characteristics of the Flow Series ‘The statistical parameters of the flow sample of 84 annual maxima have been computed and the same are as follows. a. Mean = 4,876.00 cumec b. Maximum observed peak = — 17,227.00 cumec c. Minimum observed peak = 1728.00 cumec d. Variance = 0.4991 x 10” e. Standard deviation = 2234.09 f. Co-efficient of variance = 0.458 542.381 13.727, g. Skewness h. Kurtosis As the flow data series has a relatively high value of skewness (+2.381), the normal distribution which is symmetrical in nature will not be applicable. It is, necessary to consider some of the extremal distributions. A5.1.7 Probability Distribution Three commonly used formula for estimating the probability of the different values of the annual flood peaks to be used for the plotting positions are: 1. Hazen formula 2. Weibull formula 3. Gringorten formula All the above three formulae have been used to compute the probability of exceedence of the various observed flood peaks as given in Table — A5.1.3. Attempt has been made to plot the values of the different annual peak flood and the respective probability of exceedence on the probability paper. The following probability papers are used. 1. Normal probability paper 2. Log normal probability paper, and 3. Extremal value Type-| Distribution (with coefficient of skewness .199) probability paper. The plot on the above probability papers are shown in Fig A5.1.10 to AS.1.12. In all the three cases the probability of exceedence as computed by the Hazen formula has been used. Fig A5.1.10 and AS.1.12 suggest that the data do not provide good fit to the normal and the Gumbel's Extremal Value Type-! (with coefficient of skewness=1.139) distribution. On the other hand, the plot on the Log normal probability paper suggests a reasonably good fit. However, attempt has been made to apply some of the commonly used probability distributions. ‘A5.1.8 Choice of Frequency Distribution The following frequency distributions which are generally used for the flood frequency analysis have been considered. a. Log Normal Distribution with 2-parameters (LNII), b. Log Normal Distribution with 3parameters (LLNIII) c. Extremal value type-! (EV1) Distribution (with coefficient of skewness=1.139), and d. Pearson Type Ill Distribution (Pill. 55Table - A5.1.3 Ranking of the Data & Plotting Position Value of Plotting position (%) Si. Value Plotting position (%) x according to No. of x accordingto _| he Hazen Weibull Gringorton Hazen Weibull Gringorten p 17227 0.595 «1.177 (0.666 43 4531 50.595 50.588 50.594) in 7 i10 lit 10726 1.786 2.953 1.855 44 4446 51.786 51.762 51.789 9203 2976 3529 3.043 45 4333 52.976 52.911 52.972) 9010 4.167 4.706 4.282 46 4333 54.167 54.118 54.161 7809 5.357 5.882 5.421 47 4248 55.357 55.201 55.12 7697 6.548 7.059 6.610 48 4246 56.548 56.471 56.53 7593 7.738 8.235 7.798 49 4244 57.738 “57.647 57.72; 7166 8.929 9.412 8.987 50 4192 58.929 58.824 58.91 7079 10.119 10.589 10.176 51 4172 60.119 60.000 60.10: 6960 11.310 11.765 11.365 52 4056 61.310 61.177 61.29 6938 12.500 12.941 12.554 53 4000 62.500 62.353 62.48: H2 6716 13.691 14.118 13.742 54 3993 63.691 63.529 63.674 3 6711 14.881 15.294 14.931 55 3990 64.881 64.706 64.86 4 6683. 16.071 16.471 16.120 56 3931 66.071 65.882 66.04: HS 6629 17.262 17.647 17.309 57 3819 67.262 67.059 67.23: 16 6598 18.452 18.624 18.197 58 3766 68.452 68.235 68.42 '7 6516 19.643 20.000 19.686 59 3656 69.643 69.412 69.61 18 6308 20.833 21.177 20.875 60 3653 70.833 70.588 70.80. 9 5805 22,024 22.953 22.064 61 3653 72.024 71.765 71.99: 20 5701 23.214 23.529 23.253 62 3643 73.214 72.941 73.181] 1 6635 24.405 24.706 24.441 63 3455 74.405 74.118 74.37 2 «8635 25.595 25.882 25.630 64 3398 75.595 75.294 75.55) 3 5635 26.786 27.059 26.819 65 3299 76.786 76.471 76.71 4 «532 27.976 28.235 28.008 66 3285 77.976 77.647 77.9; 5 5412 29.167 29.412 29.196 67 3256 79.166 78.824 79.12: 6 B7 5407 30.357 30.588 30.385 68 3191 80.357 80.000 80.31 5352 31.548 31.765 31.574 69 3189 81.548 81.177 81.50: 8 $274 32.738 32.941 32.763 70 3138 82.738 82.353 82.691 bs 5239 33.929 34.118 93.952 71 3093 83.929 83.529 83.881 30 5224 35.119 35.294 35.140 72 2842 85.119 84.706 85.06: B1 $221 36.310 36.471 36.329 73 2704 86.310 85.882 86.251 2 5182 37.500 37.647 37.518 74 2649 87.500 87.059 87.44: 5182 38.691 38.824 38.707 75 2567 88.691 88.235 88.63! 5182 39.881 40.000 39.895 76 2474 89.881 89.412 89.82. 5125 41.071 41.176 41.084 77 2461 91.071 90.588 91.01 5040 ° 42.262 42.353 42.273 78 2398 92.262 91.765 92.20: 4984 43.452 43.529 43.162 79 2384 93.452 92.941 93.391 4814 44.643 44.706 44.651 80 2294 94.643 94.118 94.575 4803 45.833 45.883 45.839 61 2125 95.833 95.294 95.76! 4698 47.024 47.059 47.028 82 2033 97.024 96.471, 96.95: 4589 48.214 48.335 48.217 83 1982 98.214 97.647 98.14 4587 49.405 49.412 49.106 84 1723 99.405 98.824 99.33 B2SSEISEThe following methods have been used for the estimation of the parameters. 1. Method of Moments (MOM), and 2. Method of Maximum Likelihood (MML). Although. the analysis for the trend do not exhibit the presence of any such phenomenon, and do not strongly call for the bifurcation of the series, an attempt has also been made to examine suitability of the various distribution to the data series corresponding to the pre-construction and post-construction stage for the limited purpose of academic interest as ihe data series for both the pre-construction and post-construction periods are sufficiently long. For evaluating the suitability of the ¢ifferent distribution to the data series and for making the choice of the most suitable probability distribution for the estimation of the design flood of different return periods, the CHI — square test has been used. The results of the analysis are summarised in Table-AS.1.4. TABLE-A5.1.4 : COMPARISON OF THE VARIOUS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS “Chi-Square MoM = MML Distribution Mean SD — Skewne Kurtosi ss. s 1909-92 (64 Years) 8.407 0.410 0.144 3.762 11.000 11.000 7. LN2 2. LNB 8407 0.410 0.144 3.762 8.143 - 3. EVI 4876 2234 2.339 13.403 12.905 6.952 4, Pill 4876 2234 «2.339 13.403 29.983 1909-59 (51 ] Years) 8.363 0.365 0.385 3.226 3.000 3.000 1. LN2 2.LNS 8363 0.365 0385 3226 3471 - 3.EVI 4481 1571 0.608 «3.648 «5.118 3.000 4. Pll 4481 1571 0.608 3.648 A a 1960-92 (33 Years) 8474 0.461 0.336 3.902 5.727 5.727 1. LN2 2. LNB 8474 0461 0.996 3.902 3909 - 3.EVl 5487 2907 2.228 10503 5.727 1.727 4, lll 5487 2907 2.228 10503 5363 - 57Keeping in view the CHI-square values for the various distributions vis-a-vis the basic features of such distributions, and the comparison of the probabilities of computed values as per the different distributions & that of the observed data, it is fecommended to use the 2-parameter Log Normal distribution for the purpose of the estimation of the design flood of different return periods. AS.1.9Floods For Different Return Period Floods corresponding to the return period of 1,000 year and 10,000 year have been computed by using all the distribution and the same are given in the Table — A515. Table-A5.1.5 : Estimated Design Flood by various Frequency Distributions 1000-Yr RP Flood 10000-Yr RP Flood Distribution ___MOM MML MOM. MML. 4. LN2 17084 17084 22480 22480 2. LN3 19916 *. 28649 = 3. EVI 15902 14610 19914 18162 4. Pll 20220 . 27514 - 1909-59 1, LN2 12114 12114 15007 15007 2. LN3 10880 > 12797 - 3. EVI 12236 12915 15058 18973 4. Pll . . * - 960-92 1.LN2 22557 22557 30840 30840 2. LN3 24887 id 36022 A 3. EVI 19836, 17256 25057 21566 4. Plll 26317 * 36614 i In view of the fact that a peak flood of about 17,227 cumecs has already been observed in the year 1971 and constitutes a part of the sample of 84 annual maxima, the estimated value of 17,084 cumecs as 1,000 year return period and that of 22,480 cumecs as 10,000 year return period appears to be on lower side on its face value. However, the analysis for the outliers suggests the 1971 flood peak value to be an higher outlier which in general means that it may be equivalent to a flood of a return period of more than 100 years. Further, Fig. A5.1.12 very clearly indicates that except for the 1971 flood peak, almost all the peaks are either on the straight line or are very close to it. Therefore, the estimate on the basis of the Log Normal Distribution may be accepted. However, it would be desirable to carry out further analysis with the availability of more and more data. 58In view of the above discussions, the following values of the design flood are recommended on the basis of the 2-parameter Log Normal Probability Distribution with the 84 years of data furnished by the project authorities. a. 1000 year return period flood = 17,084 cumecs b. 10,000 year return period flood = 22480 cumecs The estimated flood of different return period (as per 2 — parameter Log normal distribution) alongwith upper & lower confidence intervals is shown in Fig AS.AA3. 59GOPRELATION COEFFIGIENTR’ FIG. — A.5.1.1. AUTO CORRELATION COEFFICIENT. 60MEAN= 4076, ST. DEV= 2234, SKEWNE SS= 2339. KURTOSIS=I3403 18000 16000 MEAN= 4481 NEAN= 5487 ST. DEV= 1571 ST. DEV= 2907 ] SKEWNESS=0.608 SKEWNESS = 2228 ta0o0] — KURTOSIS.= 3648 KURTOSIS = 10503 12000 tao00 | IN GUMEGS. 8000 FLOOD 6000 PEAK 4000 2000 TIME IN YEARS FIG. = A. 5.1.3, CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOOD PEAKS 6120000 18000 16000 140004 12000 10000 2 S$ 8 ° 2 8 8 2 PEAK FLOOD IN GUMECS. é 8 3 r 2000 ol____,______—__,___,—,, 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Yo 60 90 TIME IN YEARS FIG. — A. 5.1.2 ANNUAL FLOOD PEAKS 626009} sae 7 | 4500] g 3 8 ° 20.YEAR MOVING MEAN OF PEAKS 3 3 g 3000 $$ $$ o to 20 3% 40 580 60 70 TIME IN YEARS FIG. — A.5.1.4 MOVING MEAN USING ALL DATA 63'20- YEAR MOVING STD. DEV.OF PEAKS. 4009 30004 2000} 1000} Ot ee oo Pe 20 30 40 TIME IN YEARS 64 ‘30 60 70 ATA= ~ w 20-YEAR MOVING SKEWNESS OF PEAKS ° 2 Neen eee aaa a ° lo 20 30 40 50 60 70 TIME IN YEARS FIG. A.5.1.6. .MOVIN. EWNESS USING ALL DAT,0.70 0.65] 0.60] 0.55.) 0.50 0.45. 0.40. 0.35.) 20-YEAR MOVING GOEF.OF VAR. OF PEAKS 0.30 0.28 Ly o 10 2 30 48 50 60 70 TIME IN YEARS FIG. — A.5-1.7 MOVING GOEF, OF VAR, USING ALL DATA 666000 4 ———.—_______ = =i ssco] MOVING AVERAGE wiTH HIGHEST PEAK 2 sooo | x Ey 6 z 4500 a & z MOVING AVERAGE wiTHOUT © HIGHEST PEAK 2 3 4000 4 = « g uw oe ' 3500 ~ ° 3000 demain = te 1 oto #@ 30 “© 80°60 ‘to TIME IN YEARS. G. = A518 COMPARISON OF MOVING MEANS 6720— YEAR MOVING STD. DEW.OF PEAKS. 4000. 39007 3000" 2500 2000} 1500 4 1000. 500. ° MOVING AVG. WITH MUGHEST PEAK 20 io 3040 TIME J MOVING AVG. wiTHoUT 7X MOHEST PEAK ¥ 50 6070 IN YEARS FIG — A.5..9 COMPARISON OF MOVING STD. DEV. 68@ 18000 & ¥ 16000 3 a 2 14000 X 12000 - 8 10000 8 i 8000 si 6000 os a 4000 ° § geedes 8 88 888888888 Fo 8 & Seite S ESERIES > So 8 - PROBABILITY CP (XxX) F. IN% FIG. = ASIIOPLOT ON NORMAL PROBABILITY PAPER 69IN cUMECS PEAK FLOOD (x 308 50s 9 goge8Ss 2 8 gscssess eal & B RRERBOS 8 8 BOOP FO eae g goseaee 2 Seessanoe Be 85 o PROBABILITY IP (X> X)) IN % = sl PLOT ON LOG“NORMAL PROBABILITY PAPER 020000 18000, 16000 14000 12000 10 000 YEAK FLOOD (x) IN CUMECS. ° ° 8 PROBABILITY C P(X>X)J IN % PLOT ON M PAPER m PROBABILITY, 00.E DISCHARG.IN CUMECS ' 10 loo 1000 le'o0o, RETURN PERIOD FIG —.A.S.WI3FLOOD OF DIFFERENT RETURN PERIOD mAnnexure .5.2 FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR RIVER SONE AT CHOPAN The observed annual flood peak data of 39 years (from 1959 to 1998) at the Chopan dam site on the river Sone are available. The flood frequency analysis has been carried out with a view: a. to evaluate the statistical characteristics of the given data series to examine the consistency etc.; b. {0 identify the most suitable frequency distribution to be adopted for the estimation of the design flocd of different return periods; and ©. to estimate the design flood corresponding to the return period of 1,000 year. AS.2.1Check for Randomness of the Data Series The commonly used method to check the randomness of the given series of the peak annual flow data is based on the observation of the number of peaks and troughs. Defining a peak as the occurrence of a value y such that Yur e Ye> Yer and a trough asa value y such that Yur > Yn < Yor the test of randomness can be adopted as follows. The total “score” i.e, the total number of peaks and troughs in the data series work out to be 61 (Table — A5.2.1). The total number of data is 84. Therefore the mean and the variance are calculated as follows. Mean = 2 (N -2) Where N is the total number of the data. For N=39, Mean value = 269 = 2) = 24.66 Variance = (IGN ~ 29) 19x39 -29 ——— 6.611 0 6.61 ‘The normal deviate is less than 1.96 ie., the value corresponding to 5% probability. Therefore, there is no real reason to suggest that the 39 annual peak flow values form other than a random series. 29 ~ 24.66 2.571 688 Normal Variat 2BTable-A5.2.1 Estimation of Peaks and Troughs in the Data S.No. Peakflowin Score ___“‘cumecs. 12243 16082 11390 5993 4632 15964 12123, 4212 6097 12654 10050 13571 38393 12401 10477 9895 26981 7766 12416 9032 5781 19039, 4962 6432 5432 6825 5492 3013 7498 6083 3836 5082 8112 7357 5778 25184 2650 3028 21804 dy 2. 3. 4 d. 6. 7 8. 9. ii Se S Sut pte oe eo aoe aoe oom Sat 4AS.2.2Dependence Structure of the Data Series For quantifying the dependence structure of the data series, the auto- correlation method has been used. Using a simple computer programme, the values of the auto-correlation co-efficient for different lag have been computed and are given in Table — A5.2.2. Table-A5.2.2 Computation of Auto—Correlation Coefficients SN Lag Tk -0.073 -0.055 0.027 0.047 0.042 -0.075 -0.042 -0.067 0.101 CANAASONS ©oveTnrsen It may be seen that the values of the auto-correlation coefficient for the different lags are very low. For testing the significance of the correlation coefficient for different lags, the range has been computed. For n=39, the range works out to be (+0.288 to -0.335) The correlogram is given in Fig. A5.2.1. In view of above, rx may be assumed to be insignificant. A5.2.3Consistency of the Data The plot of the annual peak flood data is shown in Fig. A5.2.2. The visual inspection of the data indicates a certain degree of variation in the average value of the peak flood in the later years of observation. The plot exhibits, in general, a slightly falling trend. However, with a view to examine the possibility of variations in the characteristics of the data with respect to the peak value of 38393, the data series has been bifurcated in two parts — one for the period from 1959 to 1971 and the other for the period from 1972 to 1998. F and t-tests were carried out on the two subsets and the results are as follows. The plot of annual peak flood excluding 1971 is shown at Fig. A.5.2.3. 8Table — A.5.2.3 F-test Two sample for variance Parameters Series 1959-71 | Series 1972- 98 Mean 12568 _[9321 Variance 76501936 44661258 Standard Deviation | 8746 Observations 13 Degrees of | 12 freedom = jae 1.7129 P(Feqf) one tail | 0.1239 [F Critical one tail__| 2.16488 TableA.5.2.4 t-Test: Two Sample assuming unequal variance [ Parameter Series 1959-71 Series 1972-98 [Mean 12568 9321 Standard Deviation 8746 6683 Variance 76501937 44661258 ¥Stat 1.17747 P9T<=1) One tail 0.1267 ‘Critical one tail 1.7291 | P(T<=1) Two tail 0.2535 Critical two tail 2.0930 The results of F and t-test indicate that the two subseries is not statistically different. A5.2.4Analysis for Checking the Presence of Jump and Trends With a view to evaluate the presence of the features like the trend or the jump in the series, analysis has been carried out by using the moving average method. The plot of the 15-year moving average for the entire series and neglecting 1971 flood peak value is appended at Fig. A 5.2.4 and A 5.2.5 respectively. The plot of the cumulative deviation of the mean is shown at Fig. A.5.2.6. The test for the presence of the trend in the data suggests a value of t= -2.145 for the Spearman trend analysis (which is based on the rank correlation analysis of the given data series) supporting the hypothesis of the data series having the presence of trend. The apparent reason for the falling trend is the lower flood peaks for a continuos period of about 12 years. But 12 year is not the sufficient period to indicate the change in the hydrological / meteorological characteristics of the region. 16Also after these low flood years the flood peaks are again started matching to the higher values, These low floods is not a persistent phenomena and as such this trend is a temporary phenomena. More details on the meteorological data could not be collected to study the other possible reasons for these low values. In the absence of all details, for the purpose of the flood frequency analysis, the data series can be considered to be free from trend. AS5.2.5Test for Outliers In order to check whether some of the data of flood events in the given series are outliers, the following analysis is carried out. The statistics of the log transformed annual peak discharge series are computed, Mean Logarithm 9.048 Standard Deviation of Logs 0.6281 Skewness Co-efficient of Logs 0.3378 Number of years 39 Since the value of the skewness co-efficient lies between -0.40 and +0.40, the test for both the low outliers as well as high outliers are to be carried out. AS.2.5.1 Check for Low Outliers The low outlier threshold (X,) is computed by Ke K, 8 where,X, = Low outlier threshold X= Mean of the log transformed series S = _ Standard deviation of the fog transformed series Ky * Outliers test K values for 10 percent significance level for a Normal distribution X= 9,048-2.671 x 0.6281 = 7.37 Q = anti log (7.37)= 1,587 cumec There is no value below this threshold value. Therefore, the low outliers are not present, A8.2.5.2 Check for High Outliers The high outlier threshold (Xx) is computed by 1Xy ok + Kyd where, XH = High outlier threshold x = Mean of the log transformed series Ss = Standard deviation of the log transformed series Ky = Outliers test K values for 10 percent significance level for a Normal distribution Xt o# 9.048 + 2.671 x 0.6281 = 10.7256 Qu = anti log (10.7256) = 45508 cumec There is no value above this threshold value. Therefore, the high outliers are not present. In view of above, the’whole data series of 39 years has been considered for the purpose of the flood frequency analysis. AS.2.6Statistical Characteristics of the Flow Serles The statistical parameters of the flow sample of 39 annual maxima have been computed and the same is as follows. Sr.No_| Descriptor. x-stat Tnx-stat 1 Mean 10403.59 cumec | 9.0482 2 Variance 0.5594E+08 0.3945 3 Standard Deviation 7479,632 0.6281 4 Bias Coeff. of Skew 1.8532 2.6491 5 Bias kurtosis 6.7405 2.6491 6 ‘Skew 2.0048 0.3378 7, Kurtosis 7.8994 3.1046 8 Minimum Observed 2650 cumac peak 9 Maximum Observed 38393 cumec peak The coefficient of skewness and Kurtosis of the log transformed series are close to 0.1 and 3 the log normal distribution can be considered to be applicable to the data series. A5.2.7Probability Distribution Three commonly used formulas for estimating the probability of the different values of the annual flood peaks to be used for the plotting positions are: 81. Hazen formula 2. Weibull formula 3. Gringorten formula The details of these three plotting position formulae has been explained in ‘Annexure 5.1 In the present study only one Weibull formulae has been used for plotting positions. The plotting position are given in Table 5.2.5 Attempt has been made to plot the values of the different annual peak flood and the respective probability of exceedance on the Log normal probability paper. The plot on the above probability papers are shown in Fig A5.2.7. A5.2.8Choice of Frequency Distribution It is observed that the kurtosis for the transformed series is very close to 3 and the skewnewss is only about 0.33. Therefore, a log normal distribution may be considered. Accordingly, the following frequency distributions have been considered keeping in view the basic statistics of the data at Chopan. Table ~ A5.2.5 Ranking of the Data & Plotting Position Si Value Value Plotting Si. Value of Value of — Plotting No fx of In(x) position No. ae) position Weibull) (Weibull) 1 2650 7.8823 2.5000 21 8112 9.0011 52.5000 2 3013 8.0107 5.000 22 9032 9.1085 55.0000 3 3028 8.0157 7.500028 9895 9.1998 57.5000 4 3836 8.2522 10.0000 24 10050 9.2153 60.0000 5 4212 ~ 8.3457 12.5000 25 10477 9.2569 62.5000 6 4632 8.4407 15.0000 26. 11390 9.3405 65,0000 7 4962 85096 17.5000 27 12123 9.4029 67.5000 8 5082 85335 20.0000 28 12243 9.4127 70.0000 9 5432 86000 225000 29 12401 9.4255 72.5000 10 5492 86110 25.0000 30 12416 9.4267 75,0000 W 5778 8.6118 27.5000 31 12654 9.4457 77.5000 12 5781 8.6623 30.0000 32 13571 9.5157 80.0000 13 5993 8.6983 32.5000 33 15964 9.6780 82.5000 14 6077 8.7122 35,0000 34 16082 9.6854 85,0000 15 6083 87132 37.5000 35 19039 9.8542 87.5000 16 6432 8.7690 40.0000 36 21804 9.9898 90,0000 17 6825 8.8288 42.5000 37 25184 10.1840 92,5000 18 7357 8.9034 45,0000 38 26981 10.2090 95,0000 19 7498 8.9224 47.5000 39 38393 10.556 97.5000 20 7766 8.9575 50.0000 i 19Log Normal Distribution with 2-parameters (LNIl), Log Norma! Distribution with 3-parameters (LNII!) c. Pearson Type Ill Distribution (PII). sp The following methods have been used for the estimation of the parameters. 4. Method of Moments (MOM), and 2. Method of Maximum Likelihood (MML). For evaluating the suitability of the different distribution to the data series and for making the choice of the most suitable probability distribution for the estimation of the design flood of different return periods, the CHI — square test has been used. The results of the analysis are summarised in Table-A5.2.6. Table—A5.2.6 Comparison Of The Various Frequency Distributions ‘Standard Error Chi-Square Distibu Mean sD Skew = Kurtosis. |: MOM =MML MOM = MML tion ness 1.LN2 9.0482 0.6281 0.3378 3.1)45 2.6744 2.710 2.4102 2.4102 2.LN3 9.0482 0.6281 0.3378 6114 7.4854 - 1.8974 3. Pill 10403. 7479.6 2.0048 . = 2.1538 * ‘The best fit criteria of CHI-squar test "i, tests that lognormal 3 parameter is the best fit distribution. The stande‘d amu’ «stimates is minimum in LN-2 parameter distribution. The other parameters suc... a3 mean, standard deviation etc. remain the same both for LN-2 and LN-3 distritutions. The plot of LN-2 and LN-3 distributions are examined and comparing all these aspocts, it is recommended that LN-3 parameter distribution is adopted. Floods corresponding to the return period of 1,000 year and 10,000 year have been computed by using alll the distribution and the same are given in the Table — AS.2.7. Table-A5.2.7 Estimated Design Flood by various Frequency Distributions Distribution 1000-Yr RP Flood 10000-Yr RP Flood MOM, MML MOM MMU 2-Par Log Normal 62098 62098 93184 93184 3-Par Log Normal 57120 7 81696 - Pearson III 59475, * 81838 80In view of the above discussiéns, the following values of the design flood are recommended on the basis of the 2-parameter Log Normal Probability Distribution with the 39 years of data furnished by the project authorities. a, 1000 year return period flood = 62,100 cumecs b. 10,000 year return period flood == 93,200 cumecs The estimated ‘flood of different return period (as ‘per 2 — parameter Log normal distribution) along with upper & lower confidence intervals is shown in Fig. A5.2.7 81uch Lee Lag FIG: A.5.2.1 AUTO CORRELATION COEFFICIENT. 820.5: 0.0 esd +1sd. MEAN 1 10 26 MEAN = 10403.59. SdeU— 7479.63. COEFF—Ua'e0.72 HURST~COEFF.—=0.70. : FIG-A. 5.2.2. TIME SERIES PLOTS 83— +2sd. +isd. ls ~ mean =18d. oo i A MEAN= 9667.03 Sdeu.= 5977.17. COEFF—areo.62. nurst—coeff = 0.72 FIG. A.5.2.3 TIME SERIES PLOT ( Neglectmg 1971) 84“ee ve (SUV3A~SI1) JOVESAV ONIAON — pes Vv Old —— suvan é ez sz 2 6 of fc: of 2 » 1 ‘0005 e000! ooosi 10002 ooosz OOO O0ose 00 oosy a39uNVHOSIO 85DISCHARGE 30000. 25000 20000. 15000 tocoo 5000 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 YEARS —_~ FIU..A.5.2.5. MOVING AVERAGE (15-YEARS } NEGLECTING 37 i971. 86doo odb (le I LD an [tdi mal” LL 5.2.6. CUMULATIVE DEVIATION OF MEANDISCHARGE 190000 ; o T ae | eta | 10000 as aT | = ae Ses ee oe Seo t ar T 3 | 1000 — 1 7 f J L 100 L | i I oor of os! 2 5 10 20 30.7090 259 00 PROBABILITY CP(X<¢ «IJ IN %— a FIG. 5.2.7 LOG NORMAL PROBABILITY PAPER, 88‘K VALUES FOR OUTLIER TEST (10 percent significance level) Annexur $2 Sample Kvalue “Sample Sample Kvalue “Sample K value size size size size 10 2.036 er 80 2.940 15 3.004 in 2.084 46 BL 2.945, 116 3.067 12 2.134 47 82 2.949 7 3.070 13 2.175 48 83 2.953 8 14 2.213 49 84 2.957 119 15 2.247 50 85 2.961 120 16 2.279 51 86 2.966 121 7 2.309 52 87 2.970 122 18 2.335 33 88 2.973 123. 3.086 19 2.361 S34 89 2.977 3.089 20 2.385, 55 90, 2.081 3.092 21 2.408, 56 v1 2.984 3.095, 22 2.429 57 92 2.989 3.097 23 2.448, SB 93 2.993 3.100, m4 2.467 os) 94, 2.996 3.102 25 2.486 oo 95, 3.000 3.104 26 2.502 61 96 3.003 3.107 27 2.519 62 97 3.006 3.109 28 2.534 63 98 3.001 3.112 29 2.549 64 99 3.014 3.14 30 2.563 65 100 (3.017 3.116 31 2577 66 lol 3.021 3.119 32 2.591 67 102-3024 3.122 33 2.604 68 103 3.027 3.124 34 2.616 69 104 3.030 3.126 35 2.628 70 105 3.033 3.129 36 2.639 1 106 3.037 3.131 37 2.650 nD 107 3.040 3.133 38 2.661 B 108 3.043 3.135 39 2.671 4 109 3.046 3.138 40 2.682 5 io 3.049 3.140 41 2.692 16 ul 3.052 3.142 a2 2.700 1 112 3.144 43 2.710 8 113 3.146 44 2.719 ” 14 3.148 89Annexure 5.4 CHIL-SQUARE DISTRIBUTION qe 00s 900 950975 990__—89S 1 0.0439 0.0315 0.0308 0.0239 0.0158 2.71 384 5.02 6637.88 2 0.010 0.0201 0.0506 0.103 0.211 461 5.99 7.38 9.21 10.60 3 0.072 «O15 0.216 0.352 0584 6.25) 7819.35 N34 12.84 4 0207 «0297 0.484-«O711 1.064 7.78 9.49 ALI 13,28 14.86 5 Od12 0554 (O831 45.61 9.24 H1.0712.83_ 15.09 16.75 6 0676 «0872 «(1.24 1642.20 10.64 12.59 14.45 16.81 IRS 7 0989 124 1692.17 283 12.02 14.07 16.01 18.48 20.28 8 134 165 218 273 349 13.36 15.51 17.53 20.09 21.96 Oo 17 209 270 «3.33 417 14.68 16.92 19.02, 21.67 23.59 10 216 256 3.25 «3.94 «4.87 15.99 183E 20.48 23.21 25.19 HL 260 305 «3.82457 S58 «17.28 19.68 21.92 24.72 26.76 12 307 357 «4.40 «5.23630 «18.55 21.03 23.34 26.22 28.30 13° 357 41t 5.01. S.89— 7.04 19.81 22.36 24.74 27.69 29.82 14 407 4665.63 6.57 7.79 21.06 23.68 © 26.12 29.14 31.32 15 460-523. 6.26 = 7.26 «= RSS 22.31 25.00 2749 305K 32.80 165.14 691 796 931 23:54 2630 28.85 32.00 34.27 17 570 641 «756 = «867 10.09 24.77 2759 30.19 3341 35.72 18 626 7.01 «8.23939 10.86 25.99 2887 31.53 348T 37.16 19 684 7.63, 8.9L 10.12, 16S 27.20 BUI 32.85 36.19 38.58 20 743-826 = 859 10.85 12.4d RAL 314 BHAT 37.57 40.00 218.038.900.289 13.24 29.62 32.67 35.48 38.93 4140 22 864 9.54 —(10.98.-12.34 14.04 30.81 33.92 36,78 40.29 42.80 23 9.26 10.20 11.69 13.09 14.85 32.01 35.17 380K ANGE Ad IB 249.89 10.86. «12.40 13.85 15,66 33.20 36.42 39.36 42.98 45.56 25 10521152 13.12, 14.61.1647 34.38 37.65 40.65 44.31 46.93 26 1116 12.20 13.84 15,38 17.29 35.56 3889 41.92 AS.64 48.29 27 118112881457 1G.1S IRI 36.74 40.11 43.19 46.96 49.64 28 12.46 13.56 15.31 16.93 18.94 37.92 41.34 HAG 48.28 50.09 29° 13.21 1426 16.05 17.71 19.77 39.09 42.56 45.72 49.59 52.34 3013.79 14.95 16.79 18.49 20.60 40.26 43.77 46.98 50.89 67 40-2071 «22.16 2443-2651 29.05 51.80 55.76 59.34 63.69 66.77 50-2799 20.71 32.36 34.76 37.69 63.17 67.50 7142 76.18 79.49 60-3553 3748 AOAR 43.19 46.46 7440 79.08 83.30 88.38 OLS 70 43.28 4544 48.76 S174 55.33 85,53 90.53 95,02 100.4 1042 80 SLIT 53.54 57.15. 60.39 64.28 9H58 101.9 106.6 112.3 116.3 9059.20 6175 65.65 69.13 73.29 107.6 HIF. URL 124. 128.3 1006733 70.06 74.22_—-'7.93_-82.36 IRS 124.3 129.6 135.R 102 90Annexure -5.5 REGIONAL FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR BETWA SUBZONE A5.5.1 BETWA SUBZONE Betwa subzone 1 (c) lies approximately between 77° to 82° longitudes (East) and 23° to 27° longitudes (North). Betwa river is the biggest river in the subzone, Besides, there are other sizable rivers like Sind, Ken and all of them ultimately join Yamuna. The drainage area of the river system in Betwa subzone is 1,06,500 sq.km. The normal annual rainfall varies from 700 mm to 1100 mm in the subzone. About 50% of the subzone area is covered by forest with patches of arable land in between which forms about 25% of the subzone area. About 20% of the area are grassland and shrubs. The remaining 5% of the area is wasteland. AS.5.2 DATA AVAILABILITY The crest gauge data have been observed al 10 representative sites in the subzone. Location of these sites is shown in the subzonal map at Fig. — A5.5.1. The list of selected catchments and the availability of crest gauge data is given in Annex sre — ‘5.5.1. Discharges at different sites were computed from observed stage values using rating curves developed for these sites during the regular gauging period. The innual peak values for different sites for the period for which data is available is furis hed in ‘Annexure — A5.5.2. The statistical parameters such as mean, Standard Deviation, Co- efficient of Skewness & Co-efficient of Kurtosis are estimated and are given ir Annexure — A553. A553 METHODS ADOPTED FOR ANALYSIS The study comprises of establishment of regional dimensionless frequency curves, growth factors (Qr/ Qee) and an equation correlating mean annual flocd (Qs) and catchment area. A regression relation correlating mean annual flood @ (which has a return period of 2.83 years) and the catchment area (A) in km? was developed for estimating Q or Qos, for an ungauged catchment. = 4.661 (A)? ros 0.858 A plot of this relation is shown in fig. 95.5.2. 1Flood for any return period can be estimated by reading the growth factor for that return period from the regional frequency curve and multiplying this growth factor by @ estimated using equation (1). Following methods have been adopted for finding the Growth factors and developing regional frequency curves. 1. Pooled Curve Method 2. US. Geological Survey Method 3. Analytical Method (A) Pooled Curve Method The available annual flood peak values (Qi) were made dimensionless by dividing each peak flood value with the sample average( Q) of that site. These values were then assigned plotting position by using Gringorten's formula as given below. PONE Cs ee ee eens op ene he ey M-044 where, Tis the retumn period Nis number of years of data M is merit order of array consisting of Qi/ Q The reduced variate Yi was estimated for each annual peak flood value using the following relation Y, =-In-In(-1/7) = =e -0 +0450) ered 3) where o = Standard Deviation of the annual flood peak series The values of réduced variate Yi and Qi/ Q for all the sites were pooled together and arranged in classified ranges of Yi of width 0.5 units ie., (-) 1.5 to () 1.0, (-)_ 1.0 to () 0.5, (-) 0.5 to 0.0, 0.0 to 0.5, 0.5 to 1.0, 1.0 to 1.5, 1.5 to 2.0, 2.0 to 2.5, 2.5 to 3.0, 3.0 to 3.5, 3.6 to 4.0, 4.0 to 4.5 and 4.5 to 5.0. The mean value of Qi / Q and Yi for every range was worked out. These are shown in Annexure-A5.5.4. Regional frequency curve was drawn by plotting the mean reduced variate Yi for each range (interval) as abscissa and mean of Qi / Q as ordinate and the best fit line was drawn (Fig. A5.5.3). Values of Qy / Q (growth factors) for different value of T were tead from this regional curve. The growth factors are given at Annexure AS.5.5 and are also tabulated below tabulated as below : 92TABLE AS.5.1 (GROWTH FACTORS BY POOLED CURVE METHOD) [Return Period 5 io [25 [50 Reduced Variate 15 (225 [32 [39 Y =-1n-1in (1-1/1) Growth Factors 137 [2.00 [2.60 [3.10 (8) US Geological Survey Method Q\/Q__ values for each individual site as computed in the pooled curve method were plotted on Gumbel's probability paper against their corresponding return period (T) values based on Gringotton's plotting position formulae. From the curves for each site Qr / @ values for T=5,10,25,50 years were read. The median value of these Qr / values from all the sites were worked out and are appended at Annexure A.A5.5.5 Regional frequency curve is then plotted by plotting these median values against ‘T' on Gumble's probability paper as shown in Figure A.A5.5.4. Growth factors are tabulated in Table A5.5.2. Table A5.5.2 Growth Factors by USGS Method Retum Period 5 70 25 0 Growth Factor | 1.54 | 2.14 3.11 3.72 (C) Analytical Method It is known that there is reasonable mathematical basis for the annual flood series to follow the Gumbel’s extreme valve distribution. In the analytical approach EV-1 distribution is fitted to the data. Two methods of analysis based on this distribution are 1. Method using frequency factors 2. Mathematical curve fitting method fs Method using frequency factors This method employs the general equation for frequency analysis, which may be expressed asQr = p+ o *Kr Where, u mean of the annual peak series ° standard deviation of the annual peak series Kr = frequency factor for any distribution Table-A5.5.3 shows theoretically derived values of factor Kr for Gumbel's distribution for selected return periods. Where the sample size is not known the values of Kr can - be estimated using the following relation Kr = v6/x (0.5772 + 1n 1n T/(T-1)) (5) Table - A5.5.3 Ky values for different return periods (EV 4 Distribution) Return Period Sample Size [5 50 [100 16 0.967__ [1.703 3.921 [4.005 20 0.919 [1.625 3.179 [3.836 25 0.888 [1.575 3.088 [3.729 30 0.666 [1.541 3.026 [3.653 35 0.851__[ 1.516 2.979 [3.598 40 0.838 [7.495 2.943 [2.554 45 0.829 [1.478 2.913 [2.520 50 0.820 [1.466 2.889 [9.491 Using the statistical properties and Kr, flood magnitudes for 10, 25 and 50 year return periods were estimated for each site adopting equation -4. Homogeneity test has been carried out based on estimates of Qio on Darlymple homogeneity test paper. Qio values of all the stations qualify the homogeneity test. Growth factors (Qr/Qo,3) for the subzone were worked out as a mean from Qr /Qo.33 ot all the sites and are given in Table-A5.5.4, Table — A5.5.4 (Growth Factors by Gumbel's Frequency Factors) Return Period 10 25 50 Growth Factor (Qr/ Q) 2.16 2.83 3.32 ofThese values are plotted on extreme value probability paper and joined with a straight line to obtain the required regional frequency curve as shown at Fig — AS.5.5. & Mathematical Curve fitting method In this method, the best ii cu. ve 1s fitted to the observed data at determined plotting positions on Gumbel's probability paper. To avoid subjective errors in graphical fitting, curve fitting is done mathematically. Of the three methods possible, viz., method of moments, method of maximum likelihood and the method of least squares, the last method was adopted as it gives better overall fit than the method of moments and involves relatively less computations. Gumbel's law (as adopted by Ven Te Chow) is expressed as Qr= A+ BX Where, Qy is the flood with a return period T X= logio logio™™ A& Bare Regression Constants Equation (6) is id to the observed data as per the following procedure. i) Rank the observed floods (Y) of the annual series in descending order il) Compute T values for each ¥ value using T = (N+1)/M iii) Compute X value véhere X= logig logio”" for all the items iv) Compute the produce XY and X’ for all the items v) __ Find the summations 2X, ZY, ¥ X?, 2XY and substitute these values in the formal equations to obtain parameters A and B of the least square line. vi) Plot the fitted equation of line on extreme value probability paper after ‘computing a few values of Y for selected T values. This is the required frequency curve (Fig-A5.5.6). Growth factors Qr/ Qz2s3) worked out using this method are tabulated below. Table - A5.5.5 Growth factors by least square fitting method [Return Period [25 50, Growth Factors 280 | 3.27A55.4 HOMOGENEITY TEST Homogeneity Test is carried out as described below : a) The ratio of 10 year flood to mean annual flood (which has a return period of 2.33 years) is determined from the frequency curve of each station. These ratios are averaged to obtain the mean 10-year ratio for the area. b) The return period corresponding to the mean annual flood times the mean 10-year ratio is determined irom the frequency curve of each station and plotted against the number of years of record for that station on Darlymple test graph. If the points for all of the stations lie between the 95% confidence limits shown on the graph, they are considered homogeneous. AS.5.5 CONFIDENCE BANDS ‘Apart from errors in the observed data there are two main sources of errors in the estimates made by frequency analysis. Firstly the wrong type of theoretical distribution may have been used. The guide to this is the fit of the observed data. Secondly there may be errors due to sampling. It is therefore necessary 20 assign limits between which the estimated value can be said to lie with a certain probability of confidence. The curves joining the equal confidence limits are drawn to show the confidence bands on both sides of the fitted curve. The reliability of any plotted point lying within the confidence band is thus indicated by the probability on which the confidence is based. ‘A simple procedure to compute confidence limits for the Gumbel frequency curve is as follows: i) Compute SVN ii) For the given return period T and N compute x (a factor derived from Gumbels L factors) using K K factors) using relation t= 141.4K+1.11 The values of t are given in Table-A5.5.6 for x = 141.4K+1.1I°, for appropriate values of N and T. iii) | Compute the factor o,=tS,/VN iv) Select the desired confidence limit and the corresponding value of t from Table — 5.5.7. v) Compute the produce tow vi) Compute values for x-toy and x+toy, These values represent the upper and lower limits of the x- values for the selected confidence limit at a 96given return period T. Plot the results on the frequency curve for the appropriate T. vil) Repeat the operation for one or more other values of T. A straight line joining the plotted limiting points will provide the required bands for selected confidence limits. Table-A5.5.6 Values of « for use in computing confidence limits for Gumbel curve Sample Return Period T Size 10 [20 30 | 50 | 75 | 100 75 | 2.476 | 3233 | 9.604 | 4.113 | 4.525 | 4.816 20 2.4 | 3075 | 3.468 | 3.968 | 4.362 | 4.643, 25 2.35 | 3.007 | 3.391 | 3.874 | 4.259,| 4.533 30 2.137 | 2.96 3.336 | 3.811 | 4.187 | 4.455 40 2.272 | 2.808 | 3.264 | 3.725 | 4.093 | 4.353 50 2.244 | 2.857 | 3.217 | 3.671 | 4.031 | 4.288 60 2.224 |. 2.83 3.185 | 3.633 | 3.989 | 4.242 75 2.201 28 3.15 9.592 | 3.943 | 4.194 100 2.181 | 2.769 | 3.114 | 3.549 | 3.896 | 4.142 Table — A5.5.7 Values of standard normal variate for various probabilities Prob. 0.5 | 0.683 | 0.8 09 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.99 t [0.674 [7 7.282 | 1.645 | 1.96 | 2.326 | 2.576 To compute’ confidence band limits for the regional curve, the width of the confidence band at a selected return period is read off from each of the individual curves. The widths are then divided by the respective mean annual floods to produce a set of ratios, which may be called errors in individual curves. The errors are combined by computing the root of the sum of their squares and then dividing by the number of stations. The resulting ratio is taken as the error in the regional curve i.e., the width of the confidence band for the regional curve at the selected return period. The values corresponding to two retu periods are plotted on the regional curve and the required control curves on either side of it are drawn by joining the two points by a straight line (refer regional frequency curves at Fig. A5.4 to A5.6) 975.5.6 CONCLUSIONS The relationship between Q or Qr.sy Vs catchment area appears reasonable since the values of exponent is within the normal variation of 0.5 to 0.8. The comparison of estimates of Qso by Pooled Curve method, US Geological Survey method and Analytical approach, are given at Annexure 5.6. 4.5.5.7 LIMITATIONS ‘This study is based on only 10 sites in the subzone and that too for a flood series of about 14-30 years. This cin be further improved with more data points and longer duration series. Also the study has been carried out assuming that the Gumbel distribution fits the available data. No detailed analysis has been carried out to test which particular distribution is the best fit. The tests and procedure shown in Annexure 5.5.1 and 5.5.2 should be followed to find the best fit distribution before proceeding for the development of the regional flood frequency curve, 98LIST OF SELECTED RAILWAY BRIDGE CATCHMENTS AND AVAILABILITY OF CREST ‘GAUGE DATA, TT Rime oF | Wane — of Seaton [Hip : Sueam | where "Bridge 1s | ridge caren located with Hay | 0. MINT ZoweHoud Seton | Stee AREA, G4 bm | ; eR FE cm] a Ss mass tem, SRO PROTA} wep ET a wer | savant oases — Hew i banat RIAA Neis| aap — Fo Taner ” GRIT Ea oKe fC [ee awa | | i AAT nef tama | | SAR] Hora ex ne i i GOHAN [Anat 0 PTH favor | [2 i TART ER fo TT | ape pu RATAN! pa 9fea oF ba oe ee as Te stom en or ote 019 099 oct 008 cei cB ODm ose CcIZ Is Doe oly OKs eo om con ov om Z¥B su ° loos os ose oz ors ovo om le lov: come os:e or9 00% oom oat. om lo lors oose 0H coe oze oon. oes carr ose ls lazst oraas S101 ost Dore con cee BEC 9101 € loosse cose oct oor aoe 2 cer —2ssh Tia aie: see ier eer or OE Fe Far TEE On Oe Dr oz on on 0 Is e506 os sa ase 19 se ls om coe ose ooze le ls vse vuee 5 is Osi 00% ool oz oo co oo oN oss 90 em ean iz 0% os on vex owe © ie ELST as) 106 0181 epee ei gost SASL ORT oN (couns) ga1u3s 4v3d GOOTs TwnNNY / 100Annexure -A.5.5.3 STATISTICAL PARAME RS OF ANNUAL FLOOD PEAK SERIES Sl Br.No, Mean Standard Skewness—_Kurtosis No. Value Deviation Coeff Coott 1. 966/600 2406.1 19186 168 2 2/1075 1954 288 3. S231: 181 4, 761/225 246.0 137 5. 145 161.7 10s 6 1222 1478 091 7. 971/603 B71 0.08 8 1239770 79.2 1.98 9, 60/1046 115.6 1.85 10. 1374 as Ls2 101Annexure AS.SA MEAN VALUES OF Q/@ AND REDUCED VARIATE “Y" STNo, ¥ inte No, interval 1 20100) 15 Z 2 (S106) LU 3 3. (L010) 05 32 4. ()051000 69 5, 0.01005 40. 6. 015 to 10 33 1, 101015 2 8 151020 18 9, 2.01025 9 10. 251030 8 iL 3.01035 5 12, 351040 2 1B. 401045 : ci : 14, 451050 7 4.08 3.18 102,annexure A.5.5.5 MEDIAN VALUES OF Qy/0 SN] Brage | O70 Values | — Og Values | —Gw/0 Values [Gis Values] ao | Ne Descen- Descan- “[Desean ing ‘ing “sing | onder order order [7 | seare00 | 7587.73, Bae [Bas [3.40 2 [aano7s [1.38 [7.70 35__[2.38 [3.12 3 fanart [173 [165 230[s.12 [301 ba} rerriaes [1.40 | 1.65 2.20 3.00 S_[ims [aa [158 220 6} iat [470 [750 2.09 79 Piss [8 2.00 “Taa077O 1.65 1.40 “180 50_—_| 150. +80. 1374 [1.65 165 Median value of QQ = —(1.8841.50/2 = 1.94 Median value of QQ (2202092 = 214 ‘Median value of Qa) (azeeo5y2 = att Median value of Oxo! (a9sas0y2 = 372 103Annexure A5.5.6 COMPARISON OF Qs» ESTIMATES BY SUG AND OTHER METHODS (cumec) SN] Bridge r - (Gp ESTIMATES: ©. | No. Estimated | __ = nas a USGS | Poored Analytical Curve s Teast | Freq. ia __| square _| Factor Growth Factors a.72 3.18 327 3.33 1] 9667600) 1976.60 [2] eenors 1034.20 | eeoriaat 286.50 | ear 257.10 | 5 | reri2a5 178.40 6) 1145 166.90 | 7 | veer 5120 | 603 116.20 oO] Ti) 98.50 10 | 1239770 3450 TT | 65071046 71.60 | 104105BLANKY3¥v INSWHDLV ONY GOOTs ¥V3d TWANNY NVZW N33ML3@ dIHSNOILYIS'2'S'S' VOLS (gen) ov yaa ANaWHOLYD 00001 000s 0002 0001 00s c0e 0108 OF OF OF oz os lool 7 ooz ~aoo1s vad TYANNY NaN loos 40 001 oseo +4 ry (s20un-D szzo!" 0s 107GROWTH FACTOR- 10 Lact so © 05 410 48 20 25 30 53 «0 48 80 REDUCED VARIATE-y —__ HIGASS3. 8 JONAL POOLED CURVE 108@2.33 GnowTH FACTOR -(9L_)——— [eee Roe [REGIOWAL GROWTH i FACTOR CURY 25% CONFIDENCE ae a . Me CONFIDENCE 11 ut 152 3 45 10 20 30 50 100 200 S00 1000 RETURN PERIOD (T) IN YEAR COXTREWE vaLuE PROB: FIGASS.4. REGIONAL FREQUENCY CURVE BY U.S.G.S METHOD 1097 eis als ti ois UPPER LIMIT OF = 95% CONFIDENCE « ° oN, 2 - ‘LOWER LIMIT OF =z o3 95% CONFIDENCE = = = ° o 2 , = ' 1 2 3 5 10 203050 100 200 500 RETURN PERIOD(T) IN YEARS ——— ‘exrnewe vaive Pro! FIG A5.5.5. REGIONAL FREQUENCY CURVE USING GUMBEU’S FREQUENCY FACTORS GrowTn FACTOR CURVE 1000 HLT PAPERS! 1102.33 ar a; GROWTH FACTOR- 8 5 jEGIONAL FREQUENCY CURVE UPPER LIMIT OF 95% CONFIDENCE 4 3 LOWER LINIT OF 95% CONFIDENCE 2 ' ° ' Ma 2 3 5 10 2030 50 100 200 500 10¢0 RETURN PERIOD (T) YEAR F1G.A.5.5.6. REGIONAL FREQUENCY CURVE BY LEAST SQUARES METHOD aBLANKCHAPTER 6 DESIGN STORM 6.1 GENERAL The design storm for a project or at a location in the river basin can be defined as an estimate of the amount of rainfall and its temporal distribution over the catchment under considerations used in determining the design flood. This could be a Probable Maximum Storm (PMS), Standard Project Storm (SPS) or a storm of a specified ratum period, which are respectively used in derhifa Be Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), ‘Standard Project Flood (SPF) or a retum period flood. The Probable Maximum Storm is an estimate of the physical upper limit to storm rainfall over the catchment, and is obtained by studying all the storms that have occurred over the region and maximising them for the most critical conditions. The Standard Project Storm is the one, which is reasonably capable of occurring over the basin under consideration, and is generally the heaviest rainstorm, which has occurred in the region of the basin during the period of rainfall records. It is not maximised for the most critical atmospheric conditions but it may be transposed from an adjacent region to the catchment under consideration. 6.2 SOME BASIC METEOROLOGICAL TERMS Almost all weather phenomena are related to the motion of large or small bcdies of air (air masses). Moisture and heat are readily transferred to and from air, which tehds to adopt the thermal and moisture conditions of the surfaces with which it is in contact. Close relation exists between wind motion and atmospheric pressure. Before going into the details some relevant meteorological terms are explained below. 6.2.1 Atmospheric pressure The force per unit area exerted by the air at a specific level is the atmospheric pressure at that level. The unit generally used in meteorology to express pressure is a unit called the millibar (abbreviated mb) which is defined as a force of 1000 dynes per ‘square centimetre. The present unit is hecta Pascal (abbreviated hPa). One hPa is equal to 1 mb. In order to portray a visual representation of the pressure differences at the time of observation the meteorologist draws lines joining points of equal pressure called as ‘isobars'. At sea level they are drawn at two (or four) hPa intervals above and below the value 1000 hPa. 113The sea level pressure is about 1013 hPa equivalent to pressure of about 76-cm high column of mercury. Station level pressure is the actual atmospheric pressure at the elevation of the observing station. In order to compare the pressures at stations of different elevations it is necessary to reduce the station pressures to a common level. The level taken as standard is ‘mean soa level’ (abbreviated MSL) The reduction to MSL consists in adding to the station pressure the weight of an imaginary column of air ‘extending from station level down to MSL. On an average a height change of 10m is ‘equivalent to a pressure change of one hPa. Therefore if the MSL pressure were 1000 hPa. the height of the 850 hPa pressure level would be 1500 m above MSL. The rate ‘of decrease of pressure with height is more marked in the lower levels and is comparatively more in cold air than in warm air. 6.2.2 Lapse rates and atmospheric stability The lapse rate, or vertical temperature gradient, is the rate of change of temperature with height in the free atmosphere. The mean lapse rate is a decrease of about 0.65 °C per 100m increase in height. The greatest variations in lapse rate are found in the layer of air just above the land. The dry-adiabatic lapse rate (approx. 1 °C per 100m) is the rate of temperature change of unsaturated air resulting from expansion ‘or compression as the air rises (lowering pressure) or descends (increasing pressure) without heat being added or removed. If a parcel of saturated air is lifted adiabatically, its temperature will decrease and its water vapour will condense, releasing latent heat of vapourisation. This heat reduces the cooling rate of the ascending air. Hence the saturated-adiabatic lapse rate is less than the dry-adiabatic, being about 0.54 °C per 100 m in the lower laygrs. At very low temperatures or at high altitudes there is litte difference between the two lapse rates because af the very small amounts of water vapaur in the air. IF the moisture in the rising air is immediately precipitated as it is condensed; the temperature of the air will decrease at the pseudo-adiabatic lapse rate, which differs very little from the saturated-adiabatic. Actually, the process is not strictly adiabatic as heat is carried away by the falling precipitation. A layer of saturated air having a saturated or pseudo-adiabatic lapse rate is said to be in neutral equilibrium, if its lapse rate is less than the saturated or pseudo-adiabatic, the air is stable; if yreater, unstable. The unstable lapse rate of the saturated air causes precipitation. 6.2.3 Moisture in air and precipitable wator ‘The term moisture content of the air means the amount of water vapour in the air. The temperature at which the air would become saturated if cooled at a_constant atmospheric pressure is the ‘dew temperature’. For example, if the air temperature near the ground were 25 °C and the dew point temperature were 20 °C, it ‘would be necessary to cool the air to 20 °C in order to cause saturation. Therefore, the depression of the dew point temperature from the air temperature is an indication of the .degree of saturation, and the lesser the depression, the nearer the air is to saturation. 114The-degree of saturation is often expressed by the term ‘relative humiaity’ which is the percentage ratio between the amount of water vapour actually in the air at any temperature and the maximum amount of water vapour in saturated air at that temperature and pressure. The moisture content, in air is expressed in terms of the ‘precipitable water’ which refers to the amount of liquid water that would form in an air column of unit cross- section if all water vapour in it were condensed. The overwhelming part of the vapour content of the atmosphere is present in the lower layers and unless great accuracy is required it is satisfactory to ignore the amounts present above 10-km level. IF the dew point and the pressure in a given volume of air are known, the amount ‘of water vapour in the volume can be exactly determined from thermodynamic considerations. In the case of an atmospheric column, however, the dew point is known ordinarily only at the surface. In determining the total precipitable water, the approximating assumption is made (with physical justification under storm conditions) that the dew point in the atmospheric column varies with altitude as indicated by the pseudo-adiabats, that is, that the column has a pseudoadiabtic lapse rate of dew point. With this assumption the precipitable water in a column of air may be determined by summation from sea level to any elevation. Tables 6-1A and 6-18 give precipitable water up to various elevations corresponding to dew point temperature at the sea level. For conversion of dew point observed at a station to corresponding sea level dew point temperature, pseudo adiabatic charts (Figure 6-1) is used. These charts are drawn to show the temperature gradient or lapse rate, which applies under the assumed atmospheric conditions i.e., the pseudo-adiabatic lapse rate. Thus by reference to Figure 6-1 it will be seen that a dew point of 11 °C at 1500 metre is equivalent to a dew point of 18 C at sea level. And Table 6-18 shows that the depths of 48mm precipitable water in the column of air up to 10km elevation. 6.2.4 Convergence ‘As already stated wind (which is air in motion) is a very influential factor in several hydro-meteorological processes. It is also important in the production of precipitation since it is only through sustained inflow of moist air into a storm that precipitation can be maintained. The net horizontal influx of air per unit area is convergence; itis usually associated with low-pressure centres. 6.2.5 Precipitation, storms and depressions To the hydrologist, precipitation is the general term for all forms of moisture emanating from the clouds and falling to the ground. Depending on the meteorological conditions it can fal as dew, drizzle, rain, glaze, sleet, hail etc. Water drops in rain are usually greater than 0.5mm diameter. In this Chapter the word precipitation is used in the ‘rainfall’ sense. While water vapour in atmosphere is a necessary factor in the formation of precipitation, it is by no means the only requirement. Moisture is always 115present in the atmosphere, even on cloudless days. For precipitation to occur, some mechanism is required to cool the air sufficiently to cause condensation and droplet growth. Condensation nuclei are also necessary, but they are usually present in the atmosphere in adequate quantities. The large scale cooling needed for significant amount of precipitation is achieved by lifting of the air. Precipitation is often classified according to the factor responsible for the lifting of the air mass. Thus, cyclonic precipitation results from the lifting of air converging into a low-pressure area, or cyclone. Convective precipitation is caused by the natural rising of warmer, lighter air in cooler, denser surroundings due to ground heating. The difference in temperature may result from unequal heating at the surface, unequal cooling at the top of the air layer, or mechanical lifting when the air is forced to pass ‘over a denser, cooler air mass or over a mountain barrier, Convectice precipitation is spotty, and its intensity varies widely. Orographic precipitation results from mechanical lifting of clouds over mountain barriers. In rugged terrain the orographic influence is so marked that storm precipitation pattems tend to resemble that of mean annual precipitation. In nature, the effects of these various types of cooling are often inter- related, and the resulting precipitation cannot aways be identified as being of any one type. The main source of moisture for rainfall is evaporation from the surface of large bodies of water and therefore rainfall tends to be heavier near coastlines. Since lifting of air masses accounts for rainfall, generally the windward side of mountain barriers yets heavy rain. After shedding moisture, when the air descends on the lee sides of banier it is warmer and drier and hence the area experiences relatively light rainfall. However the continued rise of air immediately downwind from the ridge and the stanting fall of the rainfall produce heavy amounts on the lee slopes near the crest or the ridge line. The hydrologists and hydrometeorologists to denote a period of heavy rainfall usually use the word ‘storm’; the synoptic meteorologist however means by it an area of low pressure with nearly circular whid of rapidly moving air currents. Several deep low- pressure systems with associated cyclonic winds may pass over the basin during the Period covered by the storm in the hydrometeorolgoical sense. ‘Depressions’ are those cyclonic circulations in which the maximum wind speed near the centre is less than 34 knots (1 knot = 2 km per hour approximately). It is a region of relatively low pressure with the lowest pressure at the centre. The depressions are either oval or circular and have mean diameters ranging from 80 to 5,000 km. A pressure disturbance or a low-pressure system initially forms over the sea or land, and intensifies into a depression in the course of its movement. Some of the depressions deepen further into * Cyclonic storm’. The wind speed near the centre associated with different stages of a disturbance is as follows. In general, storms weaken into depressions on entering land. 116‘System Wind Speed ' (knots) Low pressures area Zire 2 | Depression iene Deep Depression 2 | Cyclonic Storm_ [4-47 ‘Severe cyclonic storm 48-63 ‘Severe cyclonic storm with >64 hurricane winds _ 6.3 CAUSES OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN INDIA ‘The weather of India is affected by tropical as well as extra-tropical disturbances, because the country stretches from the equatorial to the northem temperate latitudes. While the extra-tropical disturbances normally affect the northern parts of the country during the period from December to April, the influence of the tropical disturbances is felt all over the country including the northernmost parts, during the period June through November. The extratropical disturbances, otherwise known as ‘Westem disturbances’ originate near the Mediterranean Sea and travel eastwards; their tracks being north of latitude 45° N but shifting to southern latitudes near 30° N during the winter period, They generally cause light rain of the order of 25 to 50 mm per month (some place 75 to 100 mm) over mountains. Most of the precipitation in the Himalayas is in the form of snow. ‘The monsoons are the seasonal trade winds, which originate in the southem hemisphere and move across the equator northward to the Tropic of Cancer. This wind stream influences Pakistan, India, Burma, Singapore, Nepal and Thailand lying in this belt. India comes under their influence from June to October. The Westem Ghats along the West Coast of India are the first to intercept these monsoons in the last week of May or beginning of June. The monsoon then divides itself into two branches: the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal branch. The Arabian Sea branch moves as a weak current along the Westem Ghats northwards towards the Gujarat coast. The Bay of Bengal branch continues to move over the Indian peninsula and the Bay in Southwest direction. The latter strikes the north-eastem spurs of the Himalayas viz.; the Naga and Patkoi Bum ranges including the Garo, the Khasi and the Jaintia hills of Meghalaya. Itis then tumed eastwardly along the Himalayas. Both the Westem Ghats and the northeastem hills accordingly receive heavy rainfall owing to orographic lifting. The heaviest rainfalls in rest of the country are the result of westward or northwestward movements of depressions that form in the Bay of Bengal. ‘When the depressions form and move across India, heavy rain commences over the coastal areas and the rain belt shifls westwards along with the depressions, Generally the Southwest quadrants of these depressions are the zones of heaviest 7