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The Bass Model Unscrambling Regression Coefficients for P&Q

Nbar= 9361 <==== Total Cumulative Sales
p= 0.047261
q= 0.738441

-------------------Regression ----------------------------- ------test---------------------

Non Cum Non Cum
Dep. var Cumul. Independent Variables Calc Cumul. Cum.
Actuals Actuals X1 X2 Fitted Fitted Fitted (t-1)
Year 1 150 150 0 0 442.41 442.41 0
Year 2 400 550 150 22,500 544.33 986.74 442.41147
Year 3 1,225 1,775 550 302,500 798.91 1785.65 1175.1687
Year 4 1,675 3,450 1,775 3,150,625 1422.91 3208.56 2320.8909
Year 5 1,700 5,150 3,450 11,902,500 1896.33 5104.88 3942.5387
Year 6 1,710 6,860 5,150 26,522,500 1928.20 7033.08 5883.7971
Year 7 1,650 8,510 6,860 47,059,600 1504.32 8537.40 7662.0499
Year 8 800 9,310 8,510 72,420,100 661.83 9199.23 8769.2223
Year 9 50 9,360 9,310 86,676,100 100.10 9299.33 9206.5575
Year 10 1 9,361 9,360 87,609,600 61.67 9361.00 9326.0216
Lifetime: 9,361

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics 2,500 NonCumula

Multiple R 0.9493711988
R Square 0.9013056732 2,000
Adjusted R 0.8731072941
Standard Er 262.9767883 1,500
Observatio 10
1,000
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F 500
Regression 2 4420921 2210461 31.963031 0.000302
Residual 7 484097.5 69156.79 0
Total 9 4905019 1 2 3 4
Years Since

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Intercept 442.41146912 158.131 2.797753 0.02661 68.4914 816.33153 68.491404
X Variable 0.6911793832 0.09641 7.16913 0.0001823 0.463205 0.9191538 0.463205
X Variable -7.818984E-05 1E-05 -7.804326 0.0001067 -0.000102 -5.45E-05 -0.0001019

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Predicted Actuals
442 150
733 400
1,146 1,225
1,622 1,675
1,941 1,700
1,778 1,710
1,107 1,650
437 800
119 50
27 1

00 NonCumulative Unit Sales

Predic
00 ted

00

00

00

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Years Since Product Launch

Upper 95.0%
816.3315
0.919154
-5.45E-05

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2,000 NonCumulative Unit Sales

Actuals
1,500

1,000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Years Since Introduction

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nit Sales

Actuals

8 9 10

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