Week Our price Comp pric Display?

Sales
1 1.04 0.81 1 986
2 1.09 1.17 1 788
3 1.16 1.04 1 580
4 1.07 1.02 0 660
5 0.9 0.94 0 1263
6 0.8 0.89 0 1972
7 0.84 0.83 0 1522
8 1.06 1.02 0 755
9 1.06 0.96 1 904
10 0.86 1.14 1 1751
11 0.97 1.14 1 1104
12 1.09 1.13 0 739
13 1.16 0.88 1 707
14 1.17 1.17 0 540
15 0.96 1.03 1 1108
16 0.82 0.83 1 1596
17 0.81 1.09 1 2050
18 0.95 1.2 1 1361
19 1.08 1.06 1 862
20 0.93 0.81 1 1254
21 1.03 1.05 0 816
22 1.01 0.84 1 879
23 1.12 0.83 1 648
24 0.86 1.2 1 2294
25 1.1 0.94 1 857
26 0.95 1.18 0 1090
27 0.99 1.02 0 854
28 0.84 1.11 0 1475
29 0.84 0.92 1 2120
30 1.11 0.81 0 566
31 0.82 1.03 1 1921
32 0.85 0.96 1 1488
33 1.09 1.01 0 644
34 0.98 0.87 0 842
35 1.13 0.91 0 549
36 1 0.84 1 1160
37 1.07 0.8 0 708
38 1.03 0.83 0 742
39 1.05 0.98 1 940
40 1.09 1.09 1 1011
41 0.86 0.96 1 1864
42 0.89 0.8 0 1129
 Constant Ownelas Compelas Displayeffect
Max 5000 -1 2 2
Min 0 -10 0 1
 a b c d
47.47889 152.9135 2.263126 532898.8

Sales
calls Sales
(1000s) level Forecast Error Error Sq
0 47 47.47889 -0.47889 0.229336
175 68 66.75178 1.248223 1.558061
350 100 102.0709 -2.07088 4.288549
525 126 124.3244 1.675627 2.807725
3500 152 152.3804 -0.38043 0.144727

9.028398
 Max Min
a 50 0
b 250 0
c 5 0
d 1000000 0
 a b
1 1

Ads Sales Forecast Error Error Sq

1 1.1 1 0.1 0.01
2 1.4 2 -0.6 0.36
3 1.8 3 -1.2 1.44
4 2.1 4 -1.9 3.61
5 2.3 5 -2.7 7.29
6 2.45 6 -3.55 12.6025
7 2.65 7 -4.35 18.9225

44.235
Total Shelf Space 2000 a1 b1 a2
Allocate minimum 400 Sq f 16001.77316 0.49998333 119999.9

Non- Profit Profit Non-

Seasonal Seasonal Seasonal Seasonal Error Sq Error Sq Non
Space Profit Profit Forecast Forecast Seasonal Seasonal
500 357771 1056381 357773.5 1056378.5 6.051516822 6.246469473
750 438178 1217454 438178.2 1217450.84 0.061798977 9.991610537
1000 505964 1346422 505962.2 1346418.12 3.121654914 15.05518316
1250 565685 1455793 565680.9 1455788.95 17.06072478 16.40448764
1500 619667 1551719 619670.5 1551714.53 11.98448046 19.97195893
38.28017596 67.66970974

Seasonal Non Seasonal

Shelf space 491.6971241 1508.302876
Profit 354790.5749 1554715.331 1909506
b2
0.35
Base Scenario

Efforts
and
outcome Direct
TV ads Print ads Radio ads Internet
s/ marketing
Segment
s

Advertisin
g dollars 1000 250 100 1500 300
($000)

Revenue
3500 800 250 4000 400
s ($000)

Budget Revenue
Effort Budget Revenue
Budget Revenue Budget Revenue for s from
levels / for s from
for TV s from for Print s from Direct Direct
Segment Radio Radio
ads TV ads ads Print ads marketin marketin
s ads ads
g g
Lowest 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
None None None None
effort
Low effort 0.50 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.50 0.20 0.50 0.50
Current Current Current Current Current
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
effort effort effort effort effort
Higher 1.20 1.60 1.25 2.10
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
effort
Highest Saturatio 1.40 Saturatio 2.00 Saturatio 1.40 Saturatio 2.80
effort n n n n

a1 b1 a2 b2
1 1.00 74.06 1 1.00
x y Forecast Error Sq x y
0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00
0.5 0.6 0.5 0.01 0.50 0.40
1 1 1 0 1.00 1.00
1.5 1.2 1.5 0.09 1.50 1.60
10 1.4 10 73.96 10.00 2.00
Budget Revenue
for s from
Internet Internet

None 0.00

0.50 0.20
Current
1.00
effort
1.50 1.80
Saturatio 2.10
n

a3 b3 a4 b4
64.02 1 1.00 74.1125 1 1.00
Forecast Error sq Forecast Error sq
0 0 0.00 0.00 0 0 0.00 0.00
0.5 0.01 0.50 0.20 0.5 0.09 0.50 0.50
1 0 1.00 1.00 1 0 1.00 1.00
1.5 0.01 1.50 1.25 1.5 0.0625 1.50 2.10
10 64 10.00 1.40 10 73.96 10.00 2.80
 52.2
Forecast Error sq
0 0
0.5 0
1 0
1.5 0.36
10 51.84
 Initial Ad 31.09202

(initail Adstock*lamda+current ad)

Quarter
of Year Quarter# Ads Price actual Adstock Ad effect Price effecSeasonalitTrend
1 1 44 44.000 2.639 68.20124 0.0 1.55943 0.784486 1.0625
2 2 78 42.000 3.486 55430.36 0.0 1.55943 0.696991 1.0625
3 3 59 35.000 6.156 83.39127 0.0 1.55943 0.824572 1.0625
4 4 72 40.000 12.561 93.67086 0.0 1.55943 1.693951 1.0625
1 5 47 37.000 7.263 72.6376 0.0 1.55943 0.784486 1.0625
2 6 45 37.000 6.354 97.66834 0.0 1.55943 0.696991 1.0625
3 7 34 37.000 8.030 34 0.0 1.55943 0.824572 1.0625
4 8 31 43.000 13.892 62.09202 0.0 1.55943 1.693951 1.0625
1 9 80 43.000 7.566 80 0.0 1.55943 0.784486 1.0625
2 10 49 44.000 6.761 49 0.0 1.55943 0.696991 1.0625
3 11 57 39.000 9.074 57 0.0 1.55943 0.824572 1.0625
4 12 65 45.000 16.655 65 0.0 1.55943 1.693951 1.0625
1 13 54 40.000 10.517 54 0.0 1.55943 0.784486 1.0625
2 14 40 43.000 8.647 40 0.0 1.55943 0.696991 1.0625
3 15 58 42.000 11.271 58 0.0 1.55943 0.824572 1.0625
4 16 23 36.000 29.031 23 0.0 1.55943 1.693951 1.0625
1 17 25 43.000 10.929 25 0.0 1.55943 0.784486 1.0625
2 18 40 43.000 9.856 40 0.0 1.55943 0.696991 1.0625
3 19 26 43.000 12.661 26 0.0 1.55943 0.824572 1.0625
4 20 30 43.000 26.056 30 0.0 1.55943 1.693951 1.0625
1 21 69 43.000 13.730 69 0.0 1.55943 0.784486 1.0625
2 22 28 43.000 13.513 28 0.0 1.55943 0.696991 1.0625
3 23 55 43.000 17.161 55 0.0 1.55943 0.824572 1.0625
4 24 54 39.000 43.227 54 0.0 1.55943 1.693951 1.0625
 adeffect 0.000 Max Min
elasticity 1.559 Adeffect 0 10
Avg trend 1.063 Elasticity 0 10
0.561191 lambda 0.778 Trend 1 2

Constant Forecaast MAE const 1780.276 Lamda 0 1

1780.276 4.060238 1.421055 1 0.784 Constant 0 10000
1780.276 4.121273 0.635531 2 0.697 Seasonalit 0 5
1780.276 6.884031 0.727573 3 0.825 Mean 1 1
1780.276 12.20149 0.359285 4 1.694 initail Ad 0 100
1780.276 6.779998 0.482945
1780.276 6.400348 0.046093 mean 1.000
1780.276 8.045208 0.015352
1780.276 13.89194 5.02E-05
1780.276 6.83565 0.730309
1780.276 6.225641 0.535769
1780.276 9.445249 0.371627
1780.276 16.49311 0.161499
1780.276 9.751883 0.765392
1780.276 8.224 0.42304
1780.276 10.7239 0.546879
1780.276 29.76847 0.737893
1780.276 11.10295 0.173953
1780.276 10.48123 0.625503
1780.276 13.17486 0.514272
1780.276 28.75747 2.701074
1780.276 14.15037 0.420255
1780.276 13.35801 0.154901
1780.276 16.79095 0.369739
1780.276 42.67818 0.548598
 a 5
b 5 SSE
c 5 RSQ
Lamda 0.4 St Dev

Month Sales AdvertisinLagged SaDelta At Forecast Errors^2 Error

1 12 15
2 20.5 16 12
3 21 18 20.5
4 15.5 27 21
5 15.3 21 15.5
6 23.5 49 15.3
7 24.5 21 23.5
8 21.3 22 24.5
9 23.5 28 21.3
10 28 36 23.5
11 24 40 28
12 15.5 3 24
13 17.3 21 15.5
14 25.3 29 17.3
15 25 62 25.3
16 36.5 65 25
17 36.5 46 36.5
18 29.6 44 36.5
19 30.5 33 29.6
20 28 62 30.5
21 26 22 28
22 21.5 12 26
23 19.7 24 21.5
24 19 3 19.7
25 16 5 19
26 20.7 14 16
27 26.5 36 20.7
28 30.6 40 26.5
29 32.3 49 30.6
30 29.5 7 32.3
31 28.3 52 29.5
32 31.3 65 28.3
33 32.2 17 31.3
34 26.4 5 32.2
35 23.4 17 26.4
36 16.4 1 23.4
 Max Min
a -10 10
b -10 10
c -10 10
Lamda 0 1
Media Data

Total (mill 20 23 22 40 20 23
Show Ads Cost/ 30 W 18-30 W 31-40 W 41-50 W>50 M 18-30 M 31-40
Oprah 6 $ 32.63 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.01
Jeopardy! 0 $ 33.00 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.04
Letterman 0 $ 47.50 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04
ND Footba 0 $ 27.50 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.04
SNL 0 $ 31.50 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.02
Simpsons 0 $ 56.00 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09
Seinfield 0 $ 233.75 0.27 0.25 0.26 0.22 0.2 0.18
ER 14 $ 199.00 0.28 0.35 0.29 0.27 0.22 0.19
MNF 12 $ 85.00 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.15 0.14
Exposure 0 0 0 0 0 0
>= >= >= >= >= >=
Goals 100 90 80 70 100 90
Cost
4001.75
 21 36
M 41-50 M >50
0.01 0.02
0.04 0.03
0.04 0.04
0.04 0.05
0.03 0.04
0.09 0.09
0.19 0.3
0.19 0.2
0.15 0.14
0 0
>= >=
80 70
 Actual
Quality Bid*Quali Payment
Bidder Bid Score ty Score per click Slot won pi*qi/
1 4 8 32 3 1 3
2 4 6 24 2 2 2
Minimum
3 4 3 12 Bid 3

Actual
Quality Bid*Quali Payment
Bidder Bid Score ty Score per click Slot won
1 4 1 4 No Paymen 0
2 3 3 9 2.666667 2 8/3
3 2 6 12 1.5 1 9/6
4 1 8 8 0.5 3 4/8

Max Bid Quality

1 2 2
2 1.5 4
3 1 5