Geographic Factors Behind Sudan’s Civil War

• Northern Sudan’s climate is arid or semi-arid, while southern Sudan climate is closely related
to the tropical climates found in Central Africa (1).

• Egypt has had a historic interest in Sudan, trying to establish control over Sudan in order to
unify all or most the territories of the Nile.

• Political change occurring in Egypt has had a gradual impact on the peoples of Sudan due to
Sudan’s connection to Egypt through the Nile River.

• Southern Sudan has historically resisted changes occurring throughout the rest of Sudan on
the basis that its climate is more tropical and its geography is largely wetland (2).

• The Sudd Swamp is the predominant geographical feature of the south, and it has abundant
floating vegetation that has made river navigation very difficult, slowing down foreign
influences (3).

Map showing geographic features of Sudan (2).

 Demographic Factors Behind Sudan’s Civil War

• In the sixth century ACE, when Egypt was under Christian rule as part of the Byzantine Empire,
Christianity spread southward down the Nile throughout the northern regions (4).

• The Coptic Christian kingdoms lasted until Islam was firmly established in Egypt, which in turn
spread southward along the Nile and supplanted Christianity. This trend was resisted in the
south (1).

• When Islam spread, northern Sudan saw the migration of Arabic peoples into northern Sudan
from Egypt and Arabia, via the Red Sea.

• Islam was the predominant religion in Sudan by the 15th century.

• By the 19th century, European missionaries spread various forms of Christianity throughout the
southern regions, coming from central and southern Africa.

• Many ethnic groups in southern Sudan fused their Christian beliefs with their traditional
religious beliefs (1).

Map showing ethnic distribution of Sudan. Note there is no predominant group in the southern
regions (2).

 Historical Factors Behind Sudan’s Civil War

• Modern Sudanese history begins when the ruler of Egypt, the Ottoman Viceroy Muhammad
Ali, invaded Sudan in 1821(5).

• He established control as far as Khartoum, at the junction of the Blue and White Nile. It was
considered the defacto southern province of Egypt.

• Muhammad Ali declares independence from the Ottoman Empire by 1838, making Sudan
officially a part of Egypt.

• Muhammad Ali’s successors sustained efforts to conquer southern Sudan, then known as
Equatoria, throughout the 19th century. Their primary motive was suppression of the salve
trade. This was achieved by 1877.

• Egypt maintained garrisons throughout Sudan until Mohammed Ahmed, who believed he was
the return of the Mahdi, a reference to the first prophet of Islam, led a revolt against Egyptian
rule in 1881.

• Mohammed Ahmed drove out most of Egypt’s forces by 1883, with the major remaining
Egyptian garrison under the command of British General Charles Gordon holed up in
Khartoum.

• Despite efforts to relive him, Charles Gordon’s garrison is overrun by 1885 (5).

• The Mahdists were unable to establish real control in the southern regions, and limited their
presence to raiding southern Sudan for slaves, food, and conscripts (6).

• Much of the Mahdi’s time and resources were spent his wars with neighboring Ethiopia (7).

• It was during this raiding that ethnic and sectarian historical animosities began taking root in
modern Sudan.

• While Egyptian military forces were being driven out of Sudan, and independent revolutionary
process gained momentum under Ahmed Urabi, and Egyptian nationalist who desired to drive
out all European and residual Turkish influences from Egypt.

• He led a revolt in 1882 that almost overthrew the ruling Egyptian khedive at the time; British
and French occupied the country to protect the khedive and suppressed the revolt. Egypt
became a British protectorate.

• Once Great Britain felt that the Egyptian Khedives rule was well established inside Egypt, they
set out the help reconquer Sudan in the late 1890’s, resulting in the Mahdist’s defeat at the
Battle of Omdurman in 1898.

 Sudan’s Civil War Begins

• Egypt and Great Britain jointly ruled Sudan as a southern Egyptian province until the 1950’s.

• When the king of Egypt, Farouk I, learns of British plans to separate Sudan from Egypt, he
defies British policy and declares himself king of both Egypt and Sudan.

• He is removed in a 1952 coup lead Mohammed Naguib, who continues to implement plans
toward making Sudan independent.

• In 1953 Egypt and Great Britain jointly agreed to facilitate a transitional period, leading to
elections in 1954.

• Though initially supporting unity with Egypt, the National Unionist Party, led by Ismail al-Azhari,
decides to renege on his campaign promises for maintaining unity.

• This immediately set off a cycle of fear throughout southern Sudan. Arabic Muslim minorities
are fearful of their status in the Christian and Animist dominated south, while the Sudanese
Christians and Animists are fearful of being dominated by the Muslims in the north.

• Southern Sudanese ethnic groups initiate civil war by 1955 (5).

 Sudan’s Civil War: Phase I

• Northern Sudan’s ability to resist the southern rebels is hindered by a struggle in the north
between Socialists and Islamists.

• There was a period of military rule in the north from 1958 to 1964. This was followed by
elections in 1965, in which the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood won.

• The Sudanese Socialist Party was banned, but the Socialists responded by initiating a coup in
1969, which placed a left wing military strong man in power, Gaafar Mohamed el-Nimeri.

• By 1972 Mohamed el Nimeri ends fighting by signing the Addis Ababa agreement, recognizing
autonomy for southern Sudan (5).

 Sudan’s Civil War: Phase II

• Mohamed el-Nimeri soon realizes that Addis Ababa agreement is not popular with the
Islamists, who used Mahdist historical nationalism to push for continued conflict.

• He responds to the growing political influence of the Muslim Brotherhood by reforming

Sudanese law so it is more synchronized with Islamic sharia law.

• He also decided to no longer recognize the Addis Ababa Agreement, and places southern
Sudan back under direct central government control.

• His attempts to implement sharia law during the 1980’s led to renewed rebellion in south
Sudan.

• By 1985, Mohamed el-Nimeri is removed from power, and a period of successive weak
governments follows after several elections in northern Sudan.

• During this period of chaos in northern Sudan, the southern Sudanese organize themselves as
the Southern People’s Liberation Army (SPLA).

• el-Nimeri’s successor was Sadiq al Mahdi, who primarily fought the war by focusing on
forming Baggara Arab militias, whose territories straddled the border of northern and southern
Sudan. These militias carried out relentless raids against populations supporting the SPLA (16)

• In 1989 another coup is staged, bringing the Islamic fundamentalists into power. They are led
by Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir. He leads through a military government that is closely
supported by the Muslim Brotherhood.

• In 1996, elections are held, where al-Bashir’s party, the NIF (National Islamic Front),
conveniently secures all 400 seats in Sudan’s National Assembly.

• al-Bashir sought to internationalize his war by making it appear as a holy war between pious
Islamists against African pagans and infidels (5).

Second Sudanese Civil War: Government and Rebel Strategies

• By 1989 SPLA controlled the majority of the southern regions of Sudan, as well as southern
portions of Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile provinces

• Government forces were besieged in several cities in southern Sudan.

• An informal ceasefire broke down in October 1989

• Northern Sudan continued recruiting militias from population areas along the border of north
and south Sudan, to be used a proxies fighting on behalf of northern Sudan against the SPLA.

• The SPLA also suffered internal rivalries, resulting in clashes between factions of the SPLA.
• Taking advantage of the internal strife, northern Sudan mounted an offensive in July 1992,
which managed to capture the SPLA’s headquarters in the southern city of Torit.

• The SPLA quickly decided to reorganize and refit as a united coalition again by April 1993.
• The SPLA gained support from Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Uganda. Uganda provided some troops to
southern Sudan.

• Eritrean and Ethiopian support ended when the two nations had a major border clash in 1998,
and Uganda scaled back military aid once it became involved in the Democratic Republic of
Congo’s civil war in 1997.
• However, the SPLA regained its footing, and formed an alliance with northern opposition
rebel groups in a coalition called the National Democratic Alliance.

• Northern Sudan responded by drafting ceasefires with various rebel factions along the border
of northern and southern Sudan in 1997.

• The groups who signed peace treaties with Khartoum were organized into the South Sudan
Defense Forces.

• Leaders within this body were offered marginal government positions in return for putting
military pressure on the remaining rebel factions (9).
 Final Peace ?
• The fact that the border regions of north and south Sudan are rich in oil slowed peace
efforts.

• Both sides attempted to sustain fighting to gain as much oil rich territory it could in lieu of a
peace settlement.

Map showing oil fields of Sudan (10)

• Fighting continued until 2004 and sporadically until 2012.
• By 2005, a Comprehensive Peace Settlement was signed, which called for a period of
southern Sudanese lasting six years, with a referendum on independence afterwards.

• Both factions merged portions of their armed forces into a symbolic 39,000 member joint
force that would be present should the southern Sudanese independence referendum vote
goes against succession.

• Oil revenues were evenly split between north and south Sudan during the six year period.

• Control of public agencies were distributed at varying ratios amongst the provinces along the
border regions between the central government and the SPLA.

• Islamic Sharia Law was applied in the north, while in the south, Sharia Law was locally
applied after a vote from an elected assembly (9).
 Post 2011 Referendum Violence
• By January 2011, the referendum was held, with the southern regions voting overwhelmingly
for independence (10).

• The status of the oil rich, border province of Abyei did not see a peaceful transition.
• Violence broke out in March 2011, and both north and south Sudan quickly mobilized their
forces in the disputed border province.

• In April 2011, Bashir threatened to withhold recognition of southern Sudan if it claimed Abyei.

• By May 2011, northern Sudan occupied all of Abyei, while the President of southern Sudan
says he will not continue to pursue the war.

• By May 31st 2011, the two Sudans agreed to set up a Common border zone between the two
regions, which was to be demilitarized and monitored by the African Union (11).

• Another clash broke in April 2012 along the border town of Heglig, which is also a rich oil
producing region.

• South Sudan mounted an offensive in the area in retaliation for what is claimed were aerial
bombardments from the north.

• Though south Sudan took 75% of Sudan’s oil production, the oil pipeline infrastructure is
routed through the north.
• Both sides did not formally agree on transit fees prior to the 2011 referendum.
• South Sudan stopped oil production after it accused northern Sudan of “stealing” oil, leading
to the aerial bombardments from the north.

• Southern Sudanese forces withdrew under international pressure in the same month.

• Throughout the crisis, both sides accused the other of backing rebel movements within their
territories (12).

• In September 2012 Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and the South Sudanese President
signed various agreements that de-escalated the conflict.

• It was agreed to resume oil exports and establish a 10 kilometer demilitarized zone along
their border.

• This DMZ plan would later break down in some sectors when fighting with the Nuba ethnic
group began within Nuba Mountain in Blue Nile and Khordofan provinces (17).

• After the Heglig crisis ended, 350,000 barrels of South Sudanese oil was released to the world
market after being with held by Sudan (13).
 South Sudanese Civil War
• By December 2013 political rivalries between the former Vice President of South Sudan,
Mr. Machar, and the President, Mr. Miir, erupted into civil war (14).

• The conflict was the result of ethnic rivalries within South Sudan. Mr. Machar’s dissident
faction was known as the SPLA-IO.

• Neighboring  Uganda publicly backed the President, Mr. Kiir, and intervened on his behalf.
• In the meantime, factions within the SPLA that rejected the 2011 referendum ceasefire
continued to fight in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan provincial border regions.

• Mr. Kiir stated that he would not support the SPLA-N remnants.

• This is probably a good will measure to encourage Sudan to cease supporting potential future
proxies in South Sudan (15).
 Conflict With the SPLA-N
• The movement originated after the 2011 south Sudanese referendum, which established
independence for South Sudan, but did not include the the final status of the provinces of
South Kordofan and the Blue Nile.

• Fighting began immediately and is continuing now. They initially fought to join South Sudan,
which was torn by internal conflict.

• They later decided to focus on overthrowing the Bashir regime instead, in hopes of creating a
more tolerant, democratic Sudan that no longer institutionalizes discrimination against
southern Sudanese. (17)

Graphic depicting areas of

combat between SPLA-N and
Government of Northern
Sudan (18). If Ethiopia
supports separatists in Blue
Nile State, it will give it
further strategic advantage
over controlling Nile River
sources.
• However, some leaders in the SPLA-N have advocated the idea of yet another separatist
movement.

• The Sudanese Army is limited to attacking SPLA-N forces in their mountainous sanctuaries in
during the dry season (November to May), as heavy participation in the wet season makes the
ground unsuitable for mechanized warfare.

• The Sudanese Army heavily relied on using locally recruited militia forces, known as Popular
Defense Forces, to engage SPLA-N rebels.

• It has also been reported that the Sudanese government provided sanctuary to Southern
Sudanese opposition SPLA-IO fighters in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan states, but has not
used them to fight SPLA-N rebels (19).

• Northern Sudan is also using the tactics of cutting off all relief efforts to the two provinces.
This is an effort to starve the rebels and any supporting populations they may be using for
sanctuary and support.

• Government has also seized all farmland in the provinces that could be used to support the
rebels (17).

• Those leaders within the SPLA-N who do support keeping the remainder of Sudan unified have
formed an alliance with Western Darfur based rebel groups to establish the Sudanese
Revolutionary Front (SRF) (21).

• Despite South Sudan’s denials, Khartoum has claimed that the SRF receives support from
them (22).
 Prospects for Peace
It is unlikely that South Sudan or
Northern Sudan would be interested in a
wider war. Southern Sudan needs to sell
its oil by using Northern Sudan’s oil
pipeline network, and Northern Sudan
needs to revive its economy by
collecting oil transit fees. This would
restrain both Sudan’s from doing
something that would provoke an all out
response from the other side. If it is
perceived by either side that growing oil
wealth is being used to initiate more
violence, we could see resumption of
wider conflicts (23). This may change,
however, if South Sudan goes head with
the planned Juba-Lamu pipeline through Kenya, breaking off its reliance on North Sudanese oil
pipeline infrastructure (24). North Sudan may retaliate in some form, either diplomatically,
economically, or by covert or overt military means. This will likely prompt some sort of
Ugandan intervention on South Sudan’s behalf.
 Notes

(1) Malwal Leek Deng, Andrew. “Sudan: Confluence of Arab and African Worlds.” Centers for African Studies
and Middle East Studies, University of California, Berkeley. 1995.

(2) Unknown author. “South Sudan Risks Independence -results.” BBC News. 7 February 2011.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-1237943

(3) Unknown author, “African Bird Club: Working for Birds and Conservation in Africa.” Last updated: 28
August 2014. Last viewed: 12 February 2017.

https://www.africanbirdclub.org/countries/South-Sudan/geography

(4) Unknown author, “Christianity in South Sudan”. Wikipedia. Last Updated 25 September 2017. Last viewed

2 February2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_Sudan

(5) Unknown author, “History of the Sudan”. historyworld.com. Last updated: unknown. Last viewed: 12 Feb
2018.

(6) Anders Breidlid, editor. A concise history of South Sudan. Kampala, Uganda : Fountain Publishers, 2014.

(7) Unknown author, “Muhammad Ahmad”. Wikipedia. Last updated: 7 February 2018. Last viewed:

12 February 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Ahmad

(8) Di-Capua, Yoav, Assistant Professor, PHD. Histories of the Modern Middle East: “Urabi Revolution”.

The University of Texas at Austin. Last updated: unknown. Last viewed: 12 February 2017.

http://laits.utexas.edu/modern_me/egypt/2/urabi

(9) Unknown author, “Second Sudanese Civil War”. Wikipedia. Last updated: 15 January 2018.

Last viewed: 13 February 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sudanese_Civil_War

(10) Unknown author. “South Sudan Referendum: 99% Vote for Independence.” BBC News. 30 January 2011.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12317927

(11) Unknown author. “Timeline: Sudan's disputed Abyei region,” Reuters. 31 May 2011.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sudan-borders-abyei-timeline/timeline-sudans-disputed-abyei-
region-idUSTRE74U3KL20110531

(12) Unknown author. “Sudan mobilizes army over seizure of oilfield by South Sudan,” The Guardian.

11 April 2012. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/apr/11/sudan-south-border-war-crisis

(13) Unknown author, “Heglig Crisis”. Wikipedia. Last updated: 4 December 2017. Last viewed: 13 February
2018.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heglig_Crisis

(14) Unknown author. “Uganda threatens intervention in South Sudan,” The Economist. 31 December 2013.

(15) Opalo, Ken. “Why is Uganda in South Sudan?,” The Christian Science Monitor. 3 February 2014.

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2014/0203/Why-is-Uganda-s-Army-in-South-
Sudan

(16) De Waal, Alex. The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, War, and the Business of Power. Polity Press,
Malden, MA, 2015. Page 76.

(17) Callum, Macrae, The War the World Forgot, Al jazeera.com, 25 August 2016. 8:19-9:09.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2016/08/war-world-
forgot-160824134809716.html

(18) Unknown author. Sudan: SPLA-N front lines and combat zones in the Two Areas, January 2016. Relief Web.
Published: 17 February 2016. Last viewed: 19 February 2016.

https://reliefweb.int/map/sudan/sudan-spla-n-front-lines-and-combat-zones-two-areas-january-201619)
(19) Unknown author. Conflict in the Two Areas. Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South
Sudan. Updated: 9 February 2016. Last viewed: 19 February 2017.

http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures/sudan/the-two-areas.html

(20) Unknown author. Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North. Wikipedia. Updated: 1 November 2017.

Last viewed: 19 February 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudan_People%27s_Liberation_Movement-

North

(21) Unknown author. “Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army - North (SPLM-N/SPLA-N)” Sudan Tribune.

Undated. Last viewed: 19 February 2018. http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?mot147

(22)Unknown author. Sudan Revolutionary Front. Wikipedia. Updated: 18 2017. Last viewed: 19 February 2018.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudan_Revolutionary_Front

(23) Copnall, James. A Poisonous Thorn in Our Hearts: Sudan and South Sudan's Bitter and Incomplete
Divorce. C. Hurst & Co (Publishers) Ltd. London, UK, 2014.

(24) Editorial Staff. “Uganda, Kenya To Build World’s Longest Heated Oil Pipeline.” “Africa Globe”.

afrciaglobe.net, 9 April 2014. Last viewed: 25 February 2017.https://www.africanglobe.net/business/

uganda-kenya-build-worlds-longest-heated-oil-pipeline/

 Sources
Anders Breidlid, editor. A concise history of South Sudan. Kampala, Uganda : Fountain Publishers, 2014.

Callum, Macrae, The War the World Forgot, Al jazeera.com, 25 August 2016.

Copnall, James. A Poisonous Thorn in Our Hearts: Sudan and South Sudan's Bitter and Incomplete Divorce.
C. Hurst & Co (Publishers) Ltd. London, UK, 2014

De Waal, Alex. The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, War, and the Business of Power. Polity Press,
Malden, MA, 2015.

Di-Capua, Yoav, Assistant Professor, PHD. Histories of the Modern Middle East: “Urabi Revolution”.

The University of Texas at Austin. Last updated: unknown. Last viewed: 12 February 2017.

http://laits.utexas.edu/modern_me/egypt/2/urabi

Malwal Leek Deng, Andrew. “Sudan: Confluence of Arab and African Worlds.” Centers for African Studies
and Middle East Studies, University of California, Berkeley. 1995.

Opalo, Ken. “Why is Uganda in South Sudan?,” The Christian Science Monitor. 3 February 2014.

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2014/0203/Why-is-Uganda-s-Army-in-South-
Sudan.

Unknown author. “South Sudan Referendum: 99% Vote for Independence.” BBC News. 30 January 2011.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12317927

Unknown author. “South Sudan Risks Independence -results.” BBC News. 7 February 2011.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-1237943

Unknown author. “Timeline: Sudan's disputed Abyei region,” Reuters. 31 May 2011.

 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sudan-borders-abyei-timeline/timeline-sudans-disputed-abyei-
region-idUSTRE74U3KL20110531

Unknown author. “Sudan mobilizes army over seizure of oilfield by South Sudan,” The Guardian.

11 April 2012. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/apr/11/sudan-south-border-war-crisis

Unknown author. “Uganda threatens intervention in South Sudan,” The Economist. 31 December 2013.

Unknown author. Conflict in the Two Areas. Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South
Sudan. Last updated: 9 February 2016. Last viewed: 19 February 2017.

http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures/sudan/the-two-areas.html

Unknown author, “African Bird Club: Working for Birds and Conservation in Africa.” Last updated: 28
August 2014. Last viewed: 12 February 2017.

https://www.africanbirdclub.org/countries/South-Sudan/geography

Unknown author, “Christianity in South Sudan”. Wikipedia. Last Updated 25 September 2017. Last viewed

2 February 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_Sudan

Unknown author. Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North. Wikipedia. Updated: 1 November 2017.

Last viewed: 19 February 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudan_People%27s_Liberation_Movement-

North

Unknown author. Sudan Revolutionary Front. Wikipedia. Updated: 18 2017. Last viewed: 19 February 2018.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudan_Revolutionary_Front

Unknown author, “Heglig Crisis”. Wikipedia. Last updated: 4 December 2017. Last viewed: 13 February
2018.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heglig_Crisis

Unknown author, “Second Sudanese Civil War”. Wikipedia. Last updated: 15 January 2018.

Last viewed: 13 February 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sudanese_Civil_War

Unknown author, “Muhammad Ahmad”. Wikipedia. Last updated: 7 February 2018. Last viewed:

12 February 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Ahmad

Unknown author, “History of the Sudan”. historyworld.com. Last updated: unknown. Last viewed: 12 Feb
2018.

Unknown author. “Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army - North (SPLM-N/SPLA-N)” Sudan Tribune.

Undated. Last viewed: 19 February 2018. http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?mot147

Editorial Staff. “Uganda, Kenya To Build World’s Longest Heated Oil Pipeline.” “Africa Globe”.

afrciaglobe.net, 9 April 2014. Last viewed: 25 February 2017.https://www.africanglobe.net/business/

uganda-kenya-build-worlds-longest-heated-oil-pipeline/