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Energy Policy. Vol. 26, No. 13, pp.

1001 — 1016, 1998


 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved
Printed in Great Britain
0301-4215/98 $ — see front matter
PII: S0301-4215(98)00045—7

Automotive energy use and emissions


control: a simulation model to analyse
transport strategies for Indian
metropolises

Ranjan Kumar Bose*


Tata Energy Research Institute, Habitat Place, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110003, India

A transport simulation model is formulated to analyse energy use and emissions in meeting the travel
requirements of the residents of four Indian metropolises, namely Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai and
Bangalore, during the period 1990–2011. The model includes the following variables: travel demand,
modal split, penetration of technologies, vehicle space per passenger, energy intensity and emission
factors of CO, HC, NOx, SO2, TSP and Pb. The model illustrates the effect of two strategies, namely
strengthening public transport and promoting cleaner and alternative fuels with improved technologies,
on energy use and emissions. If both the strategies are implemented, energy worth 0.82 million tonnes of
oil equivalent (mtoe) could be saved in 2010/2011, the breakdown of which is as follows: over 22% in
Delhi (0.36 mtoe), 55% in Calcutta (0.19 mtoe), 15% in Mumbai (0.11 mtoe) and 24% in Bangalore
(0.16 mtoe). The strategies could also reduce the emissions of CO, HC, TSP and Pb in these cities as
follows: 28–75% for CO, 28–80% HC, 21–59% TSP and 31–83% Pb in 2010/2011. Reduction potential
of SO2 emissions in Delhi, Calcutta and Mumbai would be 24%, 46% and 27%, respectively, while in
Bangalore this would increase by 5%. Reduction potential of NOx is 15% and 22% in Delhi and
Mumbai, while in Calcutta and Bangalore this would increase by 12% and 16%, respectively.
 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Transport policy; Energy demand; Emissions

Introduction fuels have all led to traffic congestion resulting in longer


travel time, greater fuel consumption, growing air pollu-
Rising incomes combined with a demand for greater tion, discomfort to road users and degradation of the
personal mobility and inadequate public transport are urban environment.
likely to result in a pronounced increase in automobile Three mutually reinforcing policies need to be used to
(scooters, motorcycles, mopeds and cars) ownership and try to reduce the growing energy demand and emissions
use, particularly in the metropolitan cities of India, each from the transport sector: improve the efficiency of fuel
comprising over 1 million people. Growing motorization pricing; reduce urban congestion; and promote cleaner
coupled with limited road space, inadequate separation fuel and improved engine technologies (World Bank,
of the working space from the living space and the space 1992). Though many studies on the implications of some
for movement, an ageing and ill-maintained vehicle of these strategies on energy demand and emissions have
stock, a sizeable share of two-stroke engine technologies, been undertaken in India, each of them presents only
absence of efficient public transport and lower quality of a broad overview of the problem (IIP, 1985; GOI, 1987;
TERI, 1989; TERI, 1992; Bose and Chary, 1993; Bose
—————
and Mackenzie, 1993; IIP, 1994; Bose, 1996; Dass and
* Tel.: 00 91 11 4622246 / 4601550; Fax: 00 91 11 4621770/4632609; Bose, 1997; Bose and Chary, 1997; World Bank, 1997). It
E-mail: rbose@teri.res.in. is therefore of the utmost importance to develop

1001
1002 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

a methodological framework flexible enough for analys- hicles including two-wheeled vehicles (scooters, motor-
ing the nature and magnitude of air pollution in cities cycles and mopeds), cars and jeeps and their increasing
relating to energy demand under alternative strategies utilization, particularly that of the two-wheeled vehicles.
before appropriate measures to check the pollution are The number of two-wheeled vehicles in Delhi, Calcutta,
implemented. Such a framework for a rapidly developing Mumbai and Bangalore grew by an average of 10.8%,
economy like India will also be relevant to many large 11.1%, 7.4% and 12.1%, respectively, every year from
cities in much of Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe 1984/1985 to 1994/1995. Their share remained around
and parts of Africa. 67—69% in Delhi but increased from 30% to 44% in
Given this background, an urban passenger transport Calcutta, 32% to 42% in Mumbai and 68% to 75% in
model is formulated for India using a computer-based Bangalore during the same period. The annual growth
accounting and simulation tool called long-range energy rate of cars and jeeps together was 13.8% in Delhi, 4.4%
alternatives planning (LEAP) and its associated environ- in Calcutta, 2.7% in Mumbai and 7.9% in Bangalore.
mental database (EDB) to analyse energy demand and Their combined share increased from 19% to 14% in
tailpipe emissions under alternative transport strategies Delhi but went down from 47% to 37% in Calcutta, 42%
(SEI-B, 1993). The model is implemented in the four to 35% in Mumbai and 19% to 14% in Bangalore
metropolises — Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore between 1984/1985 and 1994/1995. However, number of
— to illustrate the effect of two much-discussed transport buses grew very slowly by 6.8% in Delhi, 9.2% in Cal-
policies on energy use and emissions. The two strategies cutta, 6.7% in Mumbai, and 5.6% in Bangalore. The
are: (a) strengthening public transport to reduce urban share of buses, which is currently less than 2.5% in each
congestion and (b) promoting cleaner and alternative fuels of the four cities, declined from 1.6% in 1984/1985 to
and improved engine technologies. 1.1% in 1994/1995 in Delhi and from 2.2% to 1.3% in
Bangalore, but increased from 2% to 2.4% in Calcutta
and from 1.4% to 1.8% in Mumbai. This is due to
Growth and composition of motor vehicles inadequate attention to the public-based bus transport
system, which occupies less road space and is cheaper,
The growth of vehicles in each of the four cities has out more energy efficient and less polluting than private,
paced their respective population (Table 1). Delhi has individually owned transport (TERI, 1996). In view of
the largest number of registered vehicles in the country these considerations, the Eighth Five Year Plan of the
(2.43 million in 1994/1995), even though its population country has strongly recommended the strengthening of
is smaller than that of Calcutta or Mumbai. It is interest- public transport system and promoting energy efficient
ing to note that the number of vehicles in Calcutta transport modes as the two major road transport strat-
(0.56 million), Mumbai (0.67 million) and Bangalore (0.80 egies (GOI, 1992).
million) taken together is only 2.03 million, which is less Among the categories of vehicles that form the inter-
than that in Delhi alone. Perhaps this is due to the mediate public transport (IPT) modes, the number of
absence of suburban rail services in Delhi, which meet a autorickshaws grew very rapidly between 1984/1985 and
large proportion of travel demand in Mumbai and 1994/1995 though its share in the total fleet size remained
Calcutta. between 3% and 7% in each city. The annual growth rate
The annual growth rate in the total number of regis- autorickshaws was 9.6% in Delhi, 5% in Calcutta, 4% in
tered vehicles went up by 11.2% in Delhi, 7% in Cal- Mumbai and 11.8% in Bangalore. Taxis accounted for
cutta, 4.5% in Mumbai and 11.1% in Bangalore between about 4% of the vehicles in Calcutta and 6% in Mumbai
1984/1985 and 1994/1995. One important feature about whereas in the other two cities, the figure was less than
this growth is the large share of personally owned ve- 0.5% during this period. The annual growth rate of taxis

Table 1 Growth in population and motor vehicles (million)

City Variables 1980/1981 1990/1991 1994/1995 Percentage


increase (1980—1995)

Delhi Population 6.22 9.42 10.40 67


Vehicles 0.56 1.80 2.43 334
Calcutta Population 10.11 11.86 12.64 25
Vehicles 0.17 0.48 0.56 229
Mumbai Population 8.24 9.93 10.66 29
Vehicles 0.31 0.63 0.67 116
Bangalore Population 2.92 4.09 4.67 60
Vehicles 0.17 0.58 0.80 371

Estimated.

Sources: GOI (1991), GOI (1996) and Reddy (1995).


Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1003

in Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore was 3.9%, where D is the total passenger travel demand expressed
7.8%, 1.6% and 7.1%, respectively. in billion passenger kilometres (bpkm), » is the number
of registered motorized passenger vehicles and »* is the
number of registered motorized passenger vehicles ad-
The model justed with appropriate attrition factor. In other words,
»* is the number of vehicles in use. º and O denote,
respectively, the average vehicle utilization and occu-
¸EAP framework
pancy, expressed in km/vehicle and passenger/vehicle.
Index k denotes the major passenger modes and t is the
LEAP has been developed by the Stockholm Environ-
time period, with t"(n#1) — base year and n, the
ment Institute — Boston and is used in evaluating en-
reference year. The coefficients in Equation (2) are ob-
ergy—environment policies. The central concept of LEAP
tained by the ordinary least square method.
is an end-use driven scenario analysis. First, the current
energy situation and estimated future changes based on
expected or likely plans and growth trajectories are de- Subsector. Modal split, the share of total passenger
veloped. This business-as-usual (BAU) scenario is referred travel demand catered by different modes, estimated us-
to as the base case. Then, one or more policy scenarios ing Equation (1).
with alternative assumptions about future developments
are developed. For any scenario, any number of what if End-use. Share of technologies and alternative fuels un-
questions can be answered. For instance, what if more der each mode. Each mode is further disaggregated into
efficient technologies are introduced? ¼hat if cleaner and technologies and alternative fuels which are either in use
alternate fuels are introduced? ¼hat if mass transport (obtained from the sales records) or are likely to be
facilities are strengthened? introduced in near future.
The LEAP framework is a disaggregate hierarchical
format based on four levels: sector, subsector, end-use Device. »ehicle space per passenger, which is the inverse
and device. It contains two programme modules: the of the average occupancy levels for passenger modes.
energy scenarios and the environment database (EDB).
Within the energy scenarios, energy intensity values
along with the type of fuel used for each device are Energy demand
required for estimating the energy requirements at the
sectoral/subsectoral/end-use levels. In the EDB, emis- The average energy intensity for each technology con-
sion factors of different pollutants are required for sidered under device is compiled within the LEAP frame-
each device to analyse the environmental impacts of work. The complete mathematical structure of the
energy use over a time horizon. Five reference years, Energy Scenarios module is given in Equation (3).
with first year as the base year, are chosen under each
F "D ;S ;S* ;O\;E (3)
of the four levels. LEAP requires data for at least the IGR R IR IGR IR IG
base year and any of the future reference years. Then where F is the annual fuel demand expressed in kilo-
using either the interpolation/extrapolation or the grams of oil equivalent (kgoe) and S and S* denote the
growth rate method, energy demand scenarios and their percentage share of total passenger travel demand by
resultant emissions are estimated for the other reference different modes and their respective technologies. E de-
years. notes the average energy intensity expressed in kgoe/km.
A link is then built into the model at the device level in Index i denotes the type of technology under a given
both Energy Scenarios and EDB modules. The model is mode k. Total energy demand is obtained by aggregating
then run to analyse the current energy scene and simulate fuel demand across different modes and technologies.
alternative energy futures along with emissions under
a range of user-defined assumptions and to arrive at
strategies that best-address environmental and energy Emissions
problems.
Emission factors for different technologies under a typi-
cal Indian urban driving cycle are required in EDB.
¹he passenger transport model Annual emissions of each pollutant, denoted by j, is
estimated in LEAP by using Equation (4).
Sector: ¹otal passenger travel demand, estimated using
Equations (1) and (2). P "F ;½ (4)
HIGR IGR HIGR
where P denotes emissions expressed in tonnes and
D " »* ;º ;O (1)
R IR I I ½ the emission factors expressed in mass of pollutants
I emitted per unit of fuel burnt (g/kg). Total annual emis-
» "a#b ;t (2) sions of a pollutant can be obtained by aggregating the
IR I
1004 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

emission values across different modes and their tech- vehicle is 15 years; for a three-wheeled vehicle, 20 years;
nologies. for car/jeep and taxi, 25 year each; and for a bus, 10 years.
For instance, the number of two-wheeled vehicles on
Implementation of the model in four cities road in 2000/2001 would be equal to the difference be-
tween the extrapolated number of two-wheeled vehicles
Figure 1 shows the schematic structure of the transport in 2000/2001 obtained from Equation (1) and the total
model in the LEAP framework for a typical Indian city. number of registered two-wheeled vehicles in 1985/1986.
Such a model structure is implemented in the four cities, Thus, the number of registered vehicles adjusted with the
with total passenger travel demand under sector, five assumed attrition values provides the number of vehicles
types of passenger modes under subsector, seventeen hicles in use for a given mode.
types of technologies for a given mode under end-use,
seven types of alternative fuels under energy intensity, Growth in the number of vehicles in use and their modal
and six types of pollutants under EDB as given in Figure 1. share
The model considers five reference years: 1990/1991,
1995/1996, 2000/2001, 2005/2006 and 2010/2011. Table 3 gives the estimated number of vehicles, adjusted
with appropriate attrition values, for the past, present
Vehicle projections with attrition factor and future in the four cities. Between 1995/1996 and
2010/2011, the total number of vehicles in Delhi is ex-
Table 2 gives the estimated regression coefficients of the pected to increase by almost 40%, that in Calcutta by
time trend Equation (2) for different motorized modes in 19%, that in Mumbai by 77%, and that in Bangalore by
Delhi, Calcutta and Bangalore. These equations are used 49%. Privately owned vehicles for personal transport
for extrapolating the future growth in the number of would continue to claim the major share but is expected
registered vehicles in these cities. However, in Mumbai, to decline marginally in future, as given in Table 3. In
extrapolation of vehicles are on the basis of their average view of the paucity of data for Mumbai, it is assumed that
annual growth rate between the period 1992/1993 and the composition of different modes would remain con-
1994/1995 (Table 2), as the motor registration office in stant during this period.
Mumbai was split into two in 1992/1993. One for Mum-
bai and another for the outer cordon of Mumbai, with
vehicles registered in Mumbai prior to 1992/1993 were Growth in passenger travel demand and
shifted to the outer cordon. modal split
Next, the estimated number of vehicles for the refer-
ence years is adjusted with appropriate attrition factors. In the absence of any city-specific data on the average
It is assumed that the attrition factor for a two-wheeled occupancy and utilization of personal and intermediate

Figure 1 Passenger Transport model in LEAP framework for India


Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1005

modes of passenger transport, common data is used in


Mumbai

28.49%

11.53%
7.92%

20.64%
7.50%
Annual
growth
each of the four cities (ENCON, 1987). Table 4 gives the
average occupancy figures for different modes and their
utilization, which are used in Equation (1) for estimating
the travel demand in each of the cities (Table 5). The total

0.66
0.99

0.94

0.81
0.96
R2

passenger travel demand catered by road in Delhi is


expected to grow over 300%, from 47 billion passenger
kilometre (bpkm) in 1990/1991 to 143 bpkm in
(11.93)
2010/2011. The corresponding figures for other cities are

(4.20)

(6.18)
0.06
0.12

0.05
c ln t

Calcutta 130% (from 12 to 16 bpkm); Mumbai 210%


(from 31 to 67 bpkm); and Bangalore 390% (from 14 to


54 bpkm). The estimated travel demand by road in Delhi
Bangalore

and Bangalore are much higher compared to the other


two cities as large proportion of the total travel demand
(40.9)

(15.4)
40509.7

5385.1

in Calcutta and Mumbai is catered by railways. How-


bt


ever, travel demand in Delhi and Bangalore are totally


catered by road.
(21.2)

(19.5)
(133.2)

(150.8)
(81.6)
7.4
142587.3

9.1

46335.7

8.6

Modal split
a

Table 5 also gives the distribution of total passenger


Table 2 Estimated regression coefficientsa for Delhi, Calcutta and Bangalore and compound annual growth rateb for Mumbai

travel demand by different mode (modal split) and their


respective technologies. Such detailed disaggregation
0.94
0.92

0.99
0.98

0.93
R2

of passenger travel demand by technologies till 2010/


2011 captures the penetration of different technologies
in meeting the growing demand for personal mobility in
(9.3)
(23.6)

(10.1)

(27.3)

(11.8)
1055.1
2568.9

7151.6
15268.7

267.5

the four cities. In spite of a very large fleet of private


Calcutta

bt

vehicles in each city, currently buses meet a very high


volume of travel demand. Nearly, 53% of the total
passenger travel demand in Delhi was met by buses
during 1995/96, and this share would increase steadily to
(!0.24)
!416.6

10785.8
(50.2)
(19.5)

(74.4)

(17.9)
10880.5
85602.5

66% in 2010/11 (Table 5). In Calcutta and Bangalore, on


132203
a

the other hand, the demand for buses is expected to


decline-B from 32% in 1995/96 to 26% in 2010/11 in
Calcutta and from 67% to 59% in Bangalore. In Mum-
bai, buses would continue to meet 80% of the travel
Figures in parentheses are t-values, significant at 95% level of confidence.
0.96
0.99
0.99

0.96


R2

demand.
The percentage of travel demand met by privately
owned vehicles for personal transport is expected to
decline marginally between 1995/1996 and 2010/2011 in
c ln t

0.04

0.07
(24.7)
(14.9)

Delhi, Calcutta and Bangalore. In Mumbai, it would


remain at the same level (Table 5). However, cleaner
Data is used for the period 1992/1993 to 1994/1995.
Data is used for the period 1984/1985 to 1994/1995.

Data is used for the period 1985/1986 to 1994/1995.

technologies like four-stroke engines and cars with cata-


Delhi

(72.76)

(14.04)

lytic convertors would claim a greater share in the total


(30.5)
43071.8
104396.5

4988.6

fleet. A shift from gasoline to diesel driven cars, jeeps and



bt

Insignificant at 95% level of confidence.

taxis is expected in the near future, mostly because diesel


is cheaper than gasoline by more than 50%.
The role of three-wheeled autorickshaws in meeting
(48.4)

passenger travel demand in Bangalore would increase by


(503.1)
(10.3)

(9.3)

(495.3)
88573.7

9.0

9.4
470776.9

24739.1

about 3.5 times in 2010/2011 from its current share of 7%


a

and in Calcutta its rise would be about 1.3 times from its
present share of 15%. However, in Delhi, the share of
autorickshaws would decline from 8% to 5%. In Mum-
bai, autorickshaws would meet a little over 7% of the
total travel demand in the next decade. Taxis are ex-
Car/jeep
Mode

pected to meet between 1% and 7% of the travel demand


2-wh

3-wh

Taxi

Bus

in the four cities in near future.


1006 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

Table 3 Vehicles projection and composition with attrition factor

City Year Composition (%) Total vehicles

2-wh 3-wh Car/jeep Taxi Bus

Delhi 1990/91 68.01 3.61 26.99 0.70 0.68 1444765


1995/96 68.13 3.45 27.32 0.43 0.67 1991036
2000/01 65.12 3.65 29.99 0.44 0.81 2427011
2005/06 59.70 3.57 35.19 0.51 1.03 2591019
2010/11 56.21 3.46 38.47 0.51 1.35 2786016
Calcutta 1990/91 42.25 5.14 47.20 4.87 0.54 394731
1995/96 50.50 6.85 38.10 3.95 0.60 444232
2000/01 47.39 8.94 38.60 4.51 0.55 483794
2005/06 45.01 9.13 40.59 4.74 0.53 503224
2010/11 43.25 9.19 42.18 4.88 0.51 529594
Mumbai 1990/91 45.26 10.53 36.84 5.26 2.11 343946
1995/96 45.26 10.53 36.84 5.26 2.11 415788
2000/01 45.26 10.53 36.84 5.26 2.11 502636
2005/06 45.26 10.53 36.84 5.26 2.11 607625
2010/11 45.26 10.53 36.84 5.26 2.11 734544
Bangalore 1990/91 78.76 2.42 17.84 0.51 0.46 474316
1995/96 79.40 4.51 15.02 0.37 0.69 651047
2000/01 77.16 7.42 14.26 0.46 0.71 797115
2005/06 69.70 13.63 15.26 0.64 0.77 848604
2010/11 62.73 21.84 13.80 0.76 0.88 968677

. not change; (b) the share of cars and jeeps together will
Table 4 Occupancy and utilization of different vehicles reduce by half in Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore and by
a quarter in Calcutta; and (c) the rest is split in the ratio
City Average occupancy (persons/vehicle) 2 : 1 between two-wheeled vehicles and intermediate pub-
lic transport modes (i.e. autorickshaws and taxis to-
2-wh 3-wh Car/jeep Taxi Bus gether). Table 6 quantifies these assumptions.
Delhi 1.5 1.76 2.68 1.57 37.28
(13.5) (120) (27) (85) (186) Scenario 2 (S2): Promoting cleaner fuel and improved
Calcutta 1.5 1.76 2.59 1.57 33.76
(13.5) (100) (27) (85) (126) engine technologies
Mumbai 1.5 1.76 1.57 1.57 38.62
(13.5) (100) (27) (85) (245) This scenario examines the impact of improved technolo-
Bangalore 1.5 1.76 2.67 1.57 39.46 gies and cleaner and alternative fuels on energy demand
(13.5) (100) (27) (85) (262)
and emissions in a phased manner. To illustrate this,
Figure in parentheses are average daily vehicle utilization expressed in scenario 2, compared to BAU scenario in 2010/2011,
km/day. assumes the following: (a) the share of four-stroke engines
Sources: GOI (1996), and ENCON (1987). in Delhi, Calcutta and Mumbai would increase from
11%—12% to 50%, while that in Bangalore would in-
crease from 20% to 25% with a view to phase out
Scenario construction and assumptions two-stroke technologies; (b) 15% of autorickshaws
would run on propane and 10% would run on electricity
Business-as-usual (bau) scenario (battery operated vehicles); (c) the share of cars fitted with
three-way catalytic convertors using unleaded gasoline,
This scenario assumes that the present trends of growth
battery operated electric cars, and cars that use com-
in the registration of vehicles in each city will continue
pressed natural gas (CNG) cars would increase whereas,
and the present fuel efficiency norms, occupancy levels
the share of old model gasoline and diesel cars would
and vehicle utilization pattern for different modes will
decrease; (d) the share of CNG-powered taxis would
remain unchanged in future.
increase whereas, that of diesel-powered ones would de-
crease, and all taxis using gasoline would be fitted with
Scenario 1 (S1): strengthening of public buses three-way catalytic convertors; (e) the share of CNG-
powered and battery operated buses would increase; (f )
This scenario examines the impact of strengthening of the no CNG-based vehicles would be introduced in the next
network of public buses on energy use and emissions. To decade in Calcutta and Bangalore; (g) three-way catalytic
illustrate this, scenario 1, compared to BAU scenario in convertors (and therefore unleaded gasoline) would not
2010/2011 assumes the following: (a) buses would meet be introduced in Bangalore; and (f) sulphur content in
80% of the travel demand in Delhi, Calcutta and gasoline and diesel would reduce to 0.05% and 0.25%,
Bangalore whereas the share of buses in Mumbai would respectively. Table 7 quantifies these assumptions.
Table 5 Travel demand and its distribution by different modes and their technologies

City Year Share of travel demand by different types of technology in each mode (%) Total annual
passenger travel
2-wh 3-wh Car/jeep Taxi Bus demand (109 pkm)

2-st. 4-st. pre-1984 post-1984 catalytic diesel petrol diesel diesel


convertor

Delhi 1990/91 14.85 0.59 8.55 4.50 15.88 0.00 1.68 0.63 0.42 52.90 47.05
1995/96 14.88 0.78 8.27 3.39 16.96 0.45 1.81 0.20 0.46 52.80 64.00
2000/01 12.34 0.93 7.75 1.76 13.20 3.74 3.30 0.12 0.47 56.40 88.05
2005/06 9.37 0.93 6.42 0.44 10.27 6.56 4.59 0.06 0.52 60.83 110.98
2010/11 7.20 0.89 5.20 0.20 6.98 7.97 4.78 0.02 0.46 66.30 143.08
Calcutta 1990/91 9.91 0.61 11.11 16.42 12.89 0.00 12.97 4.80 3.20 28.10 11.72
1995/96 11.62 1.01 14.89 10.98 13.04 0.69 9.61 1.96 4.56 31.65 13.12
2000/01 10.52 1.04 18.96 8.14 8.47 5.76 11.53 1.45 5.80 28.33 14.66
2005/06 9.69 1.20 19.20 6.01 7.07 9.54 12.73 0.75 6.79 27.01 15.38
2010/11 9.21 1.26 19.33 4.41 5.88 12.86 13.60 0.39 7.39 25.68 16.17
Mumbai 1990/91 3.43 0.24 7.42 2.86 2.05 0.00 1.36 1.69 1.13 79.83 31.33
1995/96 3.16 0.51 7.42 1.88 2.50 0.13 1.75 0.84 1.97 79.83 37.87
2000/01 3.09 0.59 7.42 1.50 1.94 0.94 1.88 0.56 2.25 79.83 45.78
2005/06 3.01 0.66 7.42 1.25 1.25 1.56 2.19 0.28 2.53 79.83 55.34
2010/11 2.94 0.73 7.42 0.75 1.13 2.00 2.38 0.14 2.67 79.83 66.90
Bangalore 1990/91 18.32 1.25 5.23 5.34 6.66 0.00 3.96 0.50 0.33 58.40 14.11
1995/96 12.60 2.40 7.41 2.04 5.21 0.00 2.96 0.14 0.32 66.92 25.48
2000/01 10.60 3.17 11.50 1.47 4.76 0.00 2.93 0.11 0.43 65.04 33.02
2005/06 7.38 3.47 18.45 1.20 4.28 0.00 3.08 0.07 0.59 61.49 40.28
2010/11 5.15 3.16 25.13 0.72 3.22 0.00 2.63 0.03 0.63 59.33 54.07
Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose
1007
1008 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

Table 6 Changes in share of travel demand by different modes in 2010/2011 (%)

City BAU scenario Scenario 1 with more share of buses

2-wh 3-wh Car/jeep Taxi Bus 2-wh 3-wh Car/jeep Taxi Bus

Delhi 8 5 20 1 66 7 2 10 1 80
Calcutta 10 19 37 8 26 7 2 9 2 80
Mumbai 3 7 6 4 80 11 3 3 3 80
Bangalore 8 25 7 1 59 11 3 3 3 80

Table 7 Changes in technology and fuel type in 2010/2011(%)

Mode Technology/ BAU scenario Scenario 2


Fuel type
Delhi Calcutta Mumbai Bangalore Delhi Calcutta Mumbai Bangalore

2-wh 2-stroke 89 88 88 80 50 50 50 75
4-stroke 11 12 12 20 50 50 50 25
3-wh 2-stroke 100 100 100 100 75 75 75 75
Propane 0 0 0 0 15 15 15 15
BOV 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
Car/Jeep Pre-1984 model 1 12 12 11 0.5 6 6 5.5
Post-1984 model 35 16 18 49 17.5 8 9 25
Catalytic conv. 40 35 32 0 54 68 57 51.5
Diesel 24 37 38 40 15 15 15 15
CNG 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 0
BOV 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3
Taxi Petrol 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Diesel 95 95 95 95 70 95 70 95
CNG 0 0 0 0 25 0 25 0
Bus Bus 100 100 100 100 80 95 80 95
CNG 0 0 0 0 15 0 15 0
BOV 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5

Scenario 3 (S3): Strengthening of the public bus network, of which would vary under different urban driving condi-
cleaner fuel and improved technologies tions. The other possible reason could be that the ve-
hicles going outside city limits probably buy gasoline
This scenario integrates the result of scenarios 1 and 2. from the neighbouring region.
The diesel consumption in 1995/1 four cities was 0.28,
0.11, 0.27 and 0.14 mtoe in Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai and
BAU results: 1990—2011 Bangalore, respectively (Table 8). These figures account
for 77%, 58%, 98% and 88%, respectively, of the total
¹otal energy demand diesel sold in the four cities during 1995/1996 (GOI,
1994).
Table 8 summarizes the energy demand estimates ob-
tained using equation (3) for passenger transportation in
Modal share of energy demand
the four cities. Total energy demand is expected to in-
crease by nearly 2.7 times in the city of Delhi between
Table 9 gives the percent share of total transport energy
1990/1991 and 2010/2011 (from 0.6 million tonnes of oil
demand by different modes in the four cities for the
equivalent (mtoe) to 1.61 mtoe) as shown in Figure 2.
period 1990/1991—2010/2011.
During the same period, the increase in energy demand in
Calcutta would be from 0.25 to 0.34 mtoe; Mumbai, 0.33
to 0.71 mtoe; and Bangalore, 0.17 to 0.66 mtoe. Emissions
In 1995/1996, gasoline consumption in Delhi, Cal-
cutta, Mumbai and Bangalore was estimated to be 0.52, Table 10 gives the average fuel efficiency norms and
0.15, 0.13 and 0.13 mtoe, respectively, as given in Table 8. emission factors for a range of technologies which are
Whereas gasoline sales in these four cities were 0.48, 0.15, either in use or are expected to be introduced in the
0.23 and 0.12 mtoe, respectively (GOI, 1994). Such devi- coming years. All new vehicles are assumed to have
ations in estimated and actual gasoline consumption three-way catalytic convertors to check the emissions of
could be due to the use of normative values of fuel CO, HC and NO . These emission factors are imple-
V
efficiency, occupancy and vehicle utilization levels, each mented in equation (4) to estimate the emissions loading
Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1009

Table 8 Annual energy demand under alternate scenarios

Fueltype City BAU scenario Alternative scenarios: 2010/2011

1990/1991 1995/1996 2000/2001 2005/2006 2010/2011 S1 S2 S3

Gasoline Delhi 399 524 629 670 721 393 637 349
Calcutta 160 154 167 166 170 40 169 41
Mumbai 130 133 151 170 194 155 170 138
Bangalore 93 127 178 255 383 121 322 121
Diesel Delhi 203 280 450 649 893 956 673 740
Calcutta 94 106 135 156 173 122 129 108
Mumbai 202 269 335 420 517 499 386 381
Bangalore 76 143 183 219 280 401 241 376
Natural gas Delhi 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 150
Calcutta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mumbai 0 0 0 0 0 0 78 76
Bangalore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Propane Delhi 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 7
Calcutta 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0.8
Mumbai 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 5
Bangalore 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 4
Electricity Delhi 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 13
Calcutta 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1.5
Mumbai 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6
Bangalore 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 5
Total Delhi 602 804 1079 1319 1614 1349 1489 1259
Calcutta 254 260 302 322 343 162 309 151
Mumbai 332 402 486 590 711 654 654 606
Bangalore 169 270 361 474 663 525 606 506

Figure 2 Energy demand under alternate scenarios


1010 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

Table 9 Percent share of energy demand by modes in each city

City Modes 1990/1991 1995/1996 2000/2001 2005/2006 2010/2011

Delhi Scooters/motorcycles 13.79 14.20 12.25 9.74 8.01


Autorickshaws 14.24 14.04 13.50 11.52 9.83
Car/jeep 39.96 40.81 40.77 41.78 40.47
Taxi 4.58 3.05 2.90 2.98 2.67
Bus 27.43 27.90 30.58 33.98 39.02
Calcutta Scooters/motorcycles 5.51 7.21 6.30 5.81 5.49
Autorickshaws 10.93 16.07 19.62 19.55 19.43
Car/jeep 54.37 46.62 43.82 44.05 44.43
Taxi 20.59 19.47 21.13 22.03 22.61
Bus 8.60 10.63 9.13 8.56 8.04
Mumbai Scooters/motorcycles 3.93 3.82 3.79 3.76 3.74
Autorickshaws 14.94 14.91 14.91 14.86 14.89
Car/jeep 16.24 15.70 15.44 15.47 15.20
Taxi 14.83 15.63 15.91 16.12 16.29
Bus 50.06 49.94 49.95 49.79 49.88
Bangalore Scooters/motorcycles 18.61 15.57 13.50 9.57 6.87
Autorickshaws 9.35 14.95 22.45 33.44 43.67
Car/jeep 35.63 24.89 21.56 18.91 14.04
Taxi 3.89 2.56 2.97 3.38 3.32
Bus 32.52 42.03 39.52 34.70 32.10

Table 10 Average fuel efficiency and emission factors under a typical Indian urban driving cycle

Technology Fuel type Fuel efficiency Emission factors (gm/l)

km/l km/GJ CO HC NO TSP SO Pb


V 
2-wh: 2-stroke Gasoline 44.44 1233.38 368.85 230.20 4.44 22.22 2.1024 0.15
2-wh: 4-stroke Gasoline 65 1804.00 539.50 46.80 25.35 5.20 2.1024 0.15
2-wh: 4-stroke (catalytic convertor) Unleaded gasoline 65 1804.00 156.14 46.80 5.07 5.20 2.1024 neg
3-wh: 2-stroke Gasoline 20.41 566.46 250.02 156.14 2.04 10.21 2.1024 0.15
Car/jeep: pre-1984 model Gasoline 9.43 261.72 272.53 58.47 25.46 3.11 2.1024 0.15
Car/jeep: post-1984 model Gasoline 14.18 393.55 134.71 21.27 26.94 3.55 2.1024 0.15
Car/jeep (catalytic convertor) Unleaded gasoline 14.8 410.76 38.48 4.44 8.88 1.18 2.1024 neg
Taxi Gasoline 9.43 261.72 272.53 58.47 25.46 3.11 2.1024 0.15
Car/jeep Diesel 8.86 232.42 9.75 2.48 12.40 5.32 8.2630 0
Taxi Diese l 8.86 232.42 9.75 2.48 12.40 5.32 8.2630 0
Bus Diesel 3.3 86.57 41.91 6.93 69.30 6.60 8.2630 0
3-wh (catalytic convertor) Propane — 833.33 (0.156) (4.68) (2.465) 0 0 0
Car/jeep CNG — 579.71 (0.224) 0 (3.52) 0 0 0
Taxi CNG — 385.36 (0.224) 0 (3.52) 0 0 0
Bus CNG — 89.53 (0.224) 0 (3.52) 0 0 0
3-wh BOV — 2785.52 0 0 0 0 0 0
Car/jeep BOV — 1739.13 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bus BOV — 358.17 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sulphur content in gasoline is assumed to be 0.15% (w/w) in 1995/96 and would reduce to 0.05% (w/w) in 2011/12; specific gravity of gasoline is
taken as 0.7008.
 Sulphur content in diesel is assumed to be 0.5% (w/w) in 1995/96 and would reduce to 0.25% (w/w) in 2011/12; specific gravity of diesel is taken as
0.8263.
 0.75 m of CNG or Propane"1 l of gasoline; 1 m of CNG"1 l of diesel; specific gravity of natural gas is taken as 0.80, while that of Propane as
0.5602.
 Figures in parentheses are also emission factors but expressed in 10\ kg/m.
 Reactive HC.

Sources: IIP (1985), IIP (1994), World Bank (1997), WHO (1993), SEI-B (1993) and Schlesinger et al (1980), Personal communications with
Mr. I.V.Rao, R & D, Maruti Factory, Gurgaon.

of different pollutants in the four cities (Table 11). Annual emissions in Delhi. The corresponding figures for
emissions of each pollutant is significantly higher in Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore are 44%, 50% and
Delhi compared to the other three cities. 67%, respectively. In 2010/2011, it is estimated that CO
emission contribution from two- and three-wheeled ve-
Carbon monoxide. Gasoline driven vehicles contribute hicles would further go up to 58% in Delhi, 64% in
the bulk of CO emissions. Scooters/ motorcycles and Calcutta, 62% in Mumbai and 85% in Bangalore, if the
autorickshaws, which are mostly two-stroke technolo- present trends continue. With the introduction of cata-
gies, currently contribute nearly 55% of the total CO lytic convertor cars in April 1995 in the large metros,
Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1011

Table 11 Total annual emissions under BAU (thousand tonnes)

Pollutant City 1990/1991 1995/1996 2000/2001 2005/2006 2010/2011

CO Delhi 132.31 169.47 193.76 191.91 200.62


Calcutta 54.55 51.73 53.59 50.28 48.61
Mumbai 52.88 54.92 61.70 69.35 78.55
Bangalore 36.32 51.39 70.79 96.74 141.83
HC Delhi 53.79 70.20 81.96 80.63 82.48
Calcutta 17.70 19.69 22.51 22.14 22.24
Mumbai 19.88 21.77 25.23 29.31 34.15
Bangalore 15.38 22.81 32.68 47.11 73.63
NO Delhi 22.49 30.00 40.16 50.42 65.56
V
Calcutta 6.95 6.71 6.70 6.60 6.59
Mumbai 16.28 19.26 22.93 27.34 32.71
Bangalore 6.49 11.48 14.36 16.67 21.05
SO Delhi 3.03 4.11 6.01 8.03 10.49

Calcutta 1.34 1.43 1.75 1.94 2.12
Mumbai 2.28 2.92 3.60 4.46 5.46
Bangalore 0.98 1.71 2.23 2.79 3.72
TSP Delhi 6.03 8.11 10.30 11.59 13.39
Calcutta 1.88 2.16 2.52 2.64 2.76
Mumbai 2.79 3.40 4.10 4.97 5.99
Bangalore 1.83 2.89 3.86 5.01 7.15
Pb Delhi 0.078 0.102 0.111 0.104 0.098
Calcutta 0.031 0.030 0.030 0.027 0.025
Mumbai 0.026 0.026 0.028 0.030 0.033
Bangalore 0.018 0.025 0.035 0.050 0.075

which include Delhi, Calcutta and Mumbai, contribution in Delhi, 85% in Calcutta, 84% in Mumbai and 95% in
of CO emission would decline in future. Currently, in Bangalore, respectively.
Calcutta, over half the CO loading is from passenger
cars/jeeps and taxis taken together. This is because the Oxides of nitrogen. The emission rate of NO is higher
V
average mass emission factor for a typical car fitted with in diesel driven heavy duty vehicles (like, buses and
catalytic convertor is considerably less than that of old commercial goods vehicles) because of lower combustion
model cars without the catalytic convertors (Table 10). In temperatures as compared to gasoline vehicles. Buses
Bangalore the emissions of CO from cars would increase contribute nearly 65% of the total NO emission in
V
because cars fitted with catalytic convertors have not Delhi, 33% in Calcutta, 83% in Mumbai and 79% in
been introduced there. The share of buses in CO emis- Bangalore during 1995/1996. These shares would further
sions would continue to rise in Delhi, Calcutta and increase in each city by 2010/2011. Cars/jeeps and taxis
Mumbai in the coming years, but would decline in which are mainly diesel driven also contribute significant
Bangalore. NO emission. In Calcutta, their share of emission is 63%
V
in 1995/1996, while the corresponding figures in Delhi,
Hydrocarbons. HC emission rates are higher in gaso- Mumbai and Bangalore are 37%, 15% and 17%, respec-
line than diesel vehicles due to lower combustion efficien- tively. Contribution of NO emission from car/jeep and
V
cy in gasoline engines. Among the gasoline driven two taxis however would decline by 2010/2011. NO emission
V
and three-wheelers, two-stroke engines are highly ineffic- share in the four cities would remain below 4% over the
ient as compared to the ones with four-stroke engines. next 15 years.
Typically, a four-stroke motorcycle can provide upto
45% more fuel efficiency than a two-stroke. The HC Sulphur dioxide. Emission rate of SO is higher in

emissions (largely unburned gasoline) is a factor of diesel than in gasoline vehicles. For calculation of SO

7 higher for two-stroke engines when compared with emissions sulphur concentration in gasoline is taken as
four-stroke engines (Table 10). In 1995/1996 over 80% 0.15% w/w in 1995/1996 and 0.05% w/w in 2010/2011.
HC emissions is contributed by scooters, motorcycles Similarly, in diesel, sulphur concentration is assumed to
and autorickshaws in Delhi. The corresponding figures in be 0.5% w/w in 1995/1996 and 0.25% w/w in 2010/2011.
Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore are 71%, 76% and Further, it is assumed that all the sulphur gets converted
86%, respectively. Very little efforts have been made for to SO and is exhausted through the tail pipe. In

introducing four-stroke engines in cities. As a result if 1995/1996, between 50% and 65% of the total SO

two- and three-wheeled vehicles mainly with two-stroke emission is contributed by buses in Delhi, Mumbai and
technology continue to grow at its present pace, it is Bangalore, while in Calcutta, car/jeep and taxi together
estimated that by 2010/2011, HC emission contribution contribute nearly 70% emission. Two and three-wheeled
from these vehicles would increase dramatically to 84% vehicles contributed relatively less SO emission.

1012 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

¹otal suspended particulate. Diesel vehicles emit signifi- together. But its share would decline in 2010/2011. With
cant TSP as compared to the gasoline vehicles. In present trend in growth and composition of autorick-
1995/1996, about 40% of the total TSP emission in Delhi shaws in Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore, Pb emission
was from scooters and motor cycles which is expected to share would increase considerably to 51%, 63% and
decline to 26% in 2010/2011. The corresponding figures 76%, respectively, by 2010/2011.
in the other three cities are from 24% to 19% in Calcutta,
12% to 11% in Mumbai and from 38% to 14% in
Bangalore. Emission share from three wheelers would
increase in Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore from Scenario results in comparison to BAU
1995/1996 to 2010/2011, except in Delhi. In the case of
cars/jeeps and taxis, emission of TSP would increase in ¹otal energy
Delhi, Calcutta and Mumbai but, in Bangalore its share
would decrease. TSP emission contribution from buses in Figure 2 shows the trend in total energy demand from
Delhi would increase from 21% in 1995/1996 to 36% in 1990/1991 to 2010/2011 under the alternative scenarios
2010/2011 whereas, in Calcutta and Bangalore it would compared to BAU in the four cities. Total reduction in
decrease. In Mumbai, buses currently contribute around energy demand would be substantial in Delhi, Calcutta
45% of the total TSP emission and would remain around and Bangalore with more buses on road than with
the same level till 2010/2011. a gradual introduction of cleaner fuel and improved
technologies. However, in Mumbai, since buses are as-
¸ead. At present, majority of Pb emission in Delhi and sumed to meet the same level of travel demand in scen-
Calcutta are contributed by cars/jeeps and taxis taken ario 1 as compared to BAU and since the share of

Figure 3 Trends in emissions under alternate scenarios in Delhi


Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1013

cars/jeeps is expected to decline, the extent of energy the BAU scenario. The energy savings potential in Cal-
savings would be almost equal in both scenarios 1 and 2. cutta, Bangalore and Mumbai is 191,850, 157,900 and
The potential for energy savings is over 55% in Cal- 105,020 toe, respectively. On an annual per capita basis,
cutta during 2010/2011, if the recommendations of scen- scenario 3 in 2010/2011 would result in 25 kgoe of energy
ario 3 are implemented (Table 8), whereas in Bangalore, savings in Delhi, 12 kgoe in Calcutta, 8 kgoe in Mumbai
Delhi and Mumbai, the energy savings potential under and 21 kgoe in Bangalore.
scenario 3 is 24%, 22% and 15%, respectively. Substan-
tial energy savings potential is observed in Calcutta due
Changes in fuel mix
to the assumption that travel demand by bus would
increase from 26% in BAU to 80% in scenario 1 in
Table 8 also gives the estimated energy demand by type
2010/2011, but such quantum increase is implausible.
of fuels in 2010/2011 under alternative scenarios. Each
With transport energy requirement in Delhi during
city would follow a different fuel mix composition, with
2010/2011 under BAU over 2.3 times that in Mumbai
increasing share of diesel and alternate fuels like CNG,
and Bangalore and nearly 5 times that in Calcutta,
propane and electricity and decreasing share of gasoline
strengthening of mass transport with a view to reduce
in the coming years.
traffic congestion and promoting cleaner fuel and im-
proved technology would result in maximum benefit in
terms of energy savings in Delhi. Total energy savings Emissions reduction potential w.r.t. BAº
potential in Delhi during 2010/2011 with more buses and
clean technology is 355,540 toe which is equivalent to Figures 3—6 also show the results of emissions trend
what Bangalore would require during 2000/2001 under of CO, HC, NO , SO , TSP and Pb under alternate
V 

Figure 4 Trends in emissions under alternate scenarios in Calcutta


1014 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

Figure 5 Trends in emissions under alternate scenarios in Mumbai

scenarios compared to that of BAU in Delhi, Calcutta, mendations of scenario 3 would lead to higher NO
V
Mumbai and Bangalore. Table 12 summarizes the per- reduction compared to more buses. Scenario 3 compared
centage reduction or addition of emissions in alternative to BAU in 2010/2011 would reduce NO emissions by
V
scenarios compared to the BAU in 2010/2011 in all the 15% in Delhi and 22% in Mumbai. While in Calcutta
four cities. and Bangalore, NO emissions level would increase by
V
Assumptions under more buses scenario on city roads 12% and 16%, respectively. Introduction of cleaner fuel
of Delhi, Calcutta and Bangalore would bring down CO and improved technology would lead to 20—25% reduc-
and HC emissions at a much greater level than the tion in TSP emissions in all the four cities in 2010/2011
cleaner fuel and improved technology scenario. In compared to BAU. Introduction of more buses would
2010/2011, more buses along with the introduction of reduce TSP emissions by over 50% in Calcutta, 32% in
cleaner fuel and improved technology would lead into Bangalore and 14% in Delhi, but would increase by 5%
a maximum reduction of CO in Calcutta by 74% and in Mumbai. Adopting recommendations of the two strat-
least in Mumbai by 28% compared to BAU. Similarly, egies would lead to a reduction potential of TSP of 59%
HC reduction potential is highest in Calcutta 80% and in Calcutta, 37% Delhi, 34% Bangalore and 21% in
the least in Mumbai 28%. Reduction potential of SO in Mumbai. In Delhi, Calcutta and Bangalore, potential for

2010/2011 is highest in Calcutta 46%, Mumbai 27% and reduction of Pb emissions is higher with more buses, but
Delhi 24%, if both the strategies are adopted, while it in Mumbai, promoting cleaner fuel and improved tech-
would increase by 5% in Bangalore. Adopting the recom- nology would lead to a higher reduction of Pb compared
Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1015

Figure 6 Trends in emissions under alternate scenarios in Bangalore

to BAU in 2010/2011. Reduction potential of Pb with the ment option) and promoting cleaner fuel and improved
two strategies is considerable in 2010/11 in all the four technology (supply side intervention) — on potential en-
cities: Delhi 60%, Calcutta 83%, Mumbai 31% and ergy demand and emissions as compared to the BAU
Bangalore 73%. scenario for the period 1990/1991 to 2010/2011.
Many cities in developing countries are experiencing
the high costs of motorization.The state-of-the-art tech-
nological solutions to deal with manifested environ-
Conclusions mental problems are expensive and difficult to afford
given the limited financial and economic resources avail-
This paper has formulated a passenger transport model able in developing countries. Policy makers in these
which can help in analysing current energy consumption countries need to be selective and emphasize cost-effec-
and simulate energy futures along with environmental tive solutions. In particular, they need to complement
emissions under a range of user-defined assumptions. supply side interventions with demand management
The model can simulate the effect of alternative transport measures, if the ultimate objective is to conserve energy
strategies on the energy—environment scene. Through the and improve air quality levels in developing country
use of a comprehensive secondary transport database cities. The analytical framework discussed in this paper is
compiled for four metropolitan cities, namely Delhi, Cal- useful and can be applied to any city in evaluating and
cutta, Mumbai and Bangalore, the paper has illustrated prioritizing strategies to formulate an integrated policy
the effect of two much-discussed policy strategies package to achieve the desired level of emission targets in
— strengthening of public transport (a demand manage- a specified time frame.
1016 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

Table 12 Annual emissions in alternative scenarios and reduction potential in 2010/2011

Pollutant City Total emissions (thousand tonnes) Percentage reduction (!)/ addition (#) w.r.t. BAU

S1 S2 S3 S1 S2 S3

CO Delhi 141.25 142.00 100.52 !29.59 !29.22 !49.90


Calcutta 16.67 35.58 12.63 !65.71 !26.81 !74.02
Mumbai 80.28 57.87 56.76 2.20 !26.33 !27.74
Bangalore 65.94 105.01 54.93 !53.51 !25.96 !61.27
HC Delhi 54.81 56.82 37.19 !33.55 !31.11 !54.91
Calcutta 6.40 15.89 4.47 !71.22 !28.55 !79.90
Mumbai 34.47 25.10 24.62 0.94 !26.50 !27.91
Bangalore 24.83 56.31 24.91 !66.28 !23.52 !66.17
NO Delhi 69.70 51.53 55.54 6.31 !21.40 !15.28

Calcutta 7.99 5.52 7.40 21.24 !16.24 12.29
Mumbai 32.15 26.04 25.63 !1.71 !20.39 !21.64
Bangalore 26.43 18.84 24.44 25.56 !10.50 16.10
SO Delhi 10.18 8.16 8.01 !2.96 !22.21 !23.64

Calcutta 1.28 1.70 1.14 !39.62 !19.81 !46.23
Mumbai 5.17 4.14 4.01 !5.31 !24.18 !26.56
Bangalore 4.18 3.18 3.92 12.37 !14.52 5.38
TSP Delhi 11.53 9.67 8.49 !13.89 !27.78 !36.59
Calcutta 1.37 2.05 1.13 !50.36 !25.72 !59.06
Mumbai 6.32 4.48 4.71 5.51 !25.21 !21.37
Bangalore 4.84 5.72 4.73 !32.31 !20.00 !33.85
Pb Delhi 0.055 0.066 0.039 !43.59 !32.35 !60.12
Calcutta 0.006 0.018 0.004 !76.60 !30.47 !83.04
Mumbai 0.028 0.024 0.023 !15.22 !26.50 !30.90
Bangalore 0.024 0.056 0.021 !68.54 !25.48 !72.80

Acknowledgements ENCON (Engineering Consultants Private Ltd.) (1987) Estimation of


¹otal Road ¹ransport Freight and Passenger Movement in India.
January, New Delhi
The paper is prepared from a draft final research report GOI (Government of India) (1987) Report of the Study Group on
entitled ‘Environmental Aspects of Energy ºse in ¸arge Alternative Systems of ºrban ¹ransport. February, New Delhi
Indian Metropolises’, completed in December 1997, by GOI (Government of India) (1991) Final Population ¹otals: Ru-
ral—ºrban Distribution. Registrar General and Census Commis-
the author on behalf of the Tata Energy Research Insti- sioner, New Delhi
tute, New Delhi, under the project number 94EM53. The GOI (Government of India) (1992) Eighth Five ½ear Plan (1992—97):
financial support provided by the Swedish International Vol. II. Planning Commission, New Delhi, pp 222
GOI (Government of India) (1994) Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas
Development Cooperation Agency, Stockholm, to Statistics. Economics and Statistics Division, Ministry of Petroleum,
complete the study is gratefully acknowledged. The New Delhi
author is grateful to Mr Yateen Joshi for several editorial GOI (Government of India) (1996) Motor ¹ransport Statistics of India.
Transport Research Division, Ministry of Surface Transport,
suggestions. Government of India
IIP (Indian Institute of Petroleum) (1985) State of the Art Report on
»ehicle Emissions. Engines Laboratory, Dehradun
IIP (Indian Institute of Petroleum) (1994) »ehicle Emissions and Control
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