Betting Portfolio

Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

WELCOME
Welcome to this a sample edition of the member’s only Betting Portfolio service
available at www.secretbettingclub.com/Portfolio

This issue has been designed to give you a greater insight into what you actually
receive as a Betting Portfolio subscriber.

The service has been designed to significantly improve your chances to make money
betting by helping to provide information and working examples of successful Betting
Portfolios. That is a combination of profitable tipsters, who with the right staking and
approach can make you money betting.

Of course each of you is different with varying amounts of money to invest, time that
you can commit and general preferences on a betting portfolio.

That is why we offer so many examples from a lunchtime portfolio to a full-timer

portfolio, a betting exchange portfolio to a budget portfolio.

Every single angle has been catered for so whatever your circumstances, we believe
there is no better way to make money from tipsters than our sample portfolios.

2 Questions!
Two major questions that many people have are

What is the difference between the Betting Portfolio and the Secret Betting Club
and why should I join?

And

How will the Betting Portfolio service help me with my betting?

Well first of all let’s state now that the Betting Portfolio service is an additional service
and takes nothing away from your existing Secret Betting Club membership.

It was developed after our research into this area suggested many members would be
keen for further advice, analysis and information on how to run a successful
professional betting portfolio. Whereas SBC focuses a lot more on which tipsters are
profitable and genuine, the Betting Portfolio looks into the real-life practical
application of following these tipsters and the most effective methods of doing so.

The Betting Portfolio service is the perfect additional service for any Secret Betting
Club member who wishes to learn and understand the full practicalities of running a
professional portfolio.

It is operated to the same high standards as all our work and we believe it offers great
value for money.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits
As for the 2nd question on How will the Betting Portfolio service help me with my
betting?

Well the answer is very broad but we aim to provide countless amounts of professional
advice and insight, coupled with many different example portfolios for you to follow.

These example portfolio’s are outlined in the updated excel spreadsheet sent through
each month which supply 20+ example portfolio approaches for you to take.

Each portfolio is described in detail and with full stats on everything from points profit,
financial profit, membership costs, ROI & workload.

You can also follow the exact live performance of each portfolio and view at a glance,
which is the most successful and most suitable for you.

Of critical important to us when launching this service was to supply a range of

portfolios that suit the different practical needs of a diverse range of people when it
comes to betting. Everyone has their own preference as to how and when they can
place bets, be it evening or weekends or over the phone and via the Internet.

This is why we have set so many portfolio’s up from a practical viewpoint as very often
this is one of the main barriers to stopping so many people being successful. The
lunchtime portfolio will be suitable for those who have a premium on time with only
around 150 minutes per week required to follow. For the even more pushed for time,
then our 10 mins a day portfolio reduces the time needed even further. With a range of
betting bots currently in circulation we are also able to reduce workload in terms of
time, with our betting bot portfolio.

Another major aspect when compiling these portfolios was the amount of money
needed to actually subscribe to any of the tipster services, which is no doubt more
keenly felt during the current economic slowdown. Money for investment for some is at
a premium, but we know this need not preclude those with a small budget from
starting out with a betting portfolio. This is where our budget range of portfolio’s come
in, which are suitable for those with as little as £500 starting investment in terms of
subscription fees.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

WHAT YOU RECEIVE AS A MEMBER

Betting Portfolio Key Information
The Key Information Guidebook is updated each month and contains all the necessary
information and instructions on how to make the most of the Betting Portfolio service.

The Guidebook is split into three sections.

Section 1 lists a number of key betting fundamentals such as how to choose the right
portfolio, the length of time you need to apply and the importance of setting up
betting bank’s correctly. If you have never applied a betting bank or staking plan then
this section gives helpful advice on how easy it is to do this. It also helps to advise on
how to choose the best portfolio to suit your circumstances as well as a look into
applying leverage to your investments.

Section 2 helps to explain the Betting Portfolio stats spreadsheet that is included every
month and what all the stats and calculations included within this mean.

Section 3 is a listing of all the individual services currently featured in the portfolio
service. This includes details on all practical aspects of each service and will help you
to decide whether each service is suitable for your own needs.

Betting Portfolio Spreadsheet

Each member each month also receives a copy of our latest Betting Portfolio
spreadsheet, available in Excel format. This helps to clearly state the returns on offer
for each portfolio as well as the different levels of staking, cost, age of service as well
as workload.

Each portfolio is offered as a guide and you may wish to change things around to suit
your own needs. The spreadsheet is designed for you to play around with it and copy
and paste the details from each service into your own customised portfolio.

In this sample issue we have included a few screenshots from the spreadsheet to help
illustrate this fully.

Betting Portfolio Monthly Issue

As a member you can also obtain the latest issues of our Betting Portfolio service,
which is produced once a month. Each issue contains all the latest analysis, facts,
insight and research into the progress of the services in each portfolio and much more
besides.

When following a portfolio you will no doubt have many questions and thoughts over
the usage of them and the services contained within them. Through these issues we
will tackle the ongoing topics brought about by the practical application of following a
Betting Portfolio.

In each issue we also contain an up-to-date description of each Portfolio that we offer
via this service and who they are designed to suit. This looks into time involved,
betting exchange/bookmaker weighting and the level of betting experience you need
for each portfolio.

As a member you also receive all the past issues of the Betting Portfolio service.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

BETTING PORTFOLIO MONTHLY ISSUE

As mentioned each month we put together a detailed monthly Betting Portfolio specific
issue. This is packed with all the latest professional betting specific content as detailed
below…

Portfolio News
A discussion on all the latest news and activity within the sample portfolios and how
they are performing.

Your Questions Answered

A section with a full look at topical questions that are being raised up by members of
the service, on the intricacies and practical implications of betting.

Upgraded This Month

A detailed look at any services we have felt worthy of upgrading into our sample
portfolios this month and why. This looks into the full effect of following them with
real money as well as the correct staking plans to apply and who the service is suitable
for.

Bubbling Under This Month

A look at those services that are ‘bubbling under’ and close to entering into our
portfolios as well as details on what more they need to do in order to be included.

Setting The Standard This Month

Which services are setting the standard this month when it comes to betting returns
and who is really in form? Is the current run a statistical quirk and can we expect it to
continue long-term? These questions are answered each month in this section.

Cause For Concern This Month

Which services are struggling lately and setting off alarm bells lately? Should we
consider dropping them from our portfolios or are the losses in line with historical
stats? A section to help answer the perennial question of when should you stop
following a tipster!

Under The Bonnet

Each month we will be looking at a different topic that has relevance to anyone
following a Betting Portfolio. This is called our ‘Under The Bonnet’ section as we get
our hands dirty by getting underneath the facts regarding a variety of key betting
areas.

Graeme’s Corner
Graeme Dand from the Form Analyst is our monthly guest columnist who is renowned
for his staking analysis which aims to pick out the most effective methods of following
any given service. In his monthly articles he will be analysing in-depth a number of
different services to understand what makes them tick and how best to follow them.

Portfolio Rundown
A lengthy section that looks on each sample portfolio we provide and their respective
merits and claims. Each portfolio that we list has been personally designed to cater for
every possible individual circumstance. Time, cost, risk, profit, longevity, sport and
ease of use are all factors that have been taken into account when designing each
portfolio. The information found within Portfolio Rundown will help you to decide
which portfolio suits you best.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

BETTING PORTFOLIO SPREADSHEET

What matters most at the end of the day is the profit and loss in your betting account
and this is where our portfolio spreadsheet comes in very handy.

It lists the ongoing performance of all the sample portfolios that we currently advocate
with everything from cost to workload listed.

Experienced Portfolios
If you are looking to have an expansive range of services and can commit a large
amount of time then one of our experienced portfolios will assist. These include our
‘Keynote’, ‘Select 1 & 2’, ‘Sports’, ‘Racing’, ‘Quick On The Draw’ & ‘Patience’
portfolios.

Busy Life Portfolios

If time is at a premium or you can only place bets at certain times of the day then one
of our ‘busy life’ portfolios will certainly assist. These include ‘Lunchtime’, ’10 Mins A
Day’, ‘Weekend & Evening’, ‘Weekend’ & ‘Weekend Lite’

Newcomer Portfolios
If you are a relative newcomer or only have a small budget than our numerous
affordable portfolio examples for you include ‘Budget 1, 2, 3, 4 & BudgetMax’.

Betting Exchange Portfolios

If you would like to place the majority of bets at Betfair rather than with a bookmaker
then our ‘Betting Exchange’ and ‘Betting Exchange Mix’ portfolios are well suited for
you.

Betting Bot Portfolios

Betting Bots automate the placement of your bets and we have a specialist ‘Betting
Bot’ portfolio featuring services this is most applicable for!

Percentage Portfolios
Adjusting your stakes as your betting bank increases is a great way to build up a
successful approach and our ‘Percentage Portfolio’ shows you the way.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

PORTFOLIO EXAMPLE
To help illustrate how the service works, we have taken an example from our 10
Minutes Per Day portfolio and listed it below. There is both a written description on the
portfolio as well as full stats on the performance to different levels of staking. The
same documentation and detail is available for every sample portfolio in the service.

10 MINUTES PER DAY PORTFOLIO

Performance listed in the ’10 Mins’ worksheet.

Details
Services in the portfolio: 7
12 month total subscription cost: £3027
Average age of services in the portfolio: 36 months

Time/Effort
Average work-load per week: 70 minutes
Obtaining quick prices can make a small difference on occasions.

Betting Experience
It is recommended to be followed by those with at least a low to medium level of
betting experience.

Bets placement percentage

Betting Exchanges: 60%
Bookmakers: 40%

Sports Covered
Horse Racing, Football, Darts, Snooker, Tennis

Portfolio Description
The 10 Minutes A Day Portfolio has been designed especially for those members who
only have a very small amount of time to spare each day in order to place bets. If time
is at a premium for you then this portfolio offers an excellent solution.

Featuring services that can be followed quickly and easily with little hassle in terms of
obtaining quick prices or checking on the best odds. Some services allow you to simply
place bets easily at Betfair SP each day, whilst others may only advise 10 bets per
month.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

10 MINS PER DAY PORTFOLIO STATISTICS

Below are a number of example tables taken from our 10 Mins Per Day Portfolio
spreadsheet, where you can see examples of all the stats supplied. The same amount
of information is provided for each example portfolio given via the service.

EXPLANATION OF TERMS
Cost 12: Cost of the service for a 12 month membership
Age: Number of months the service has been in operation
Points Betting Bank: Suggested betting bank pt size for each service
12 M: Rolling pts profit over last 12 months

Total: Total amount of financial investment to bank suggestion

1.5X Lev: Total amount of financial investment to bank suggestion with 1.5X
leverage
2X Lev: Total amount of financial investment to bank suggestion with 2X leverage
12m return (-fees): Total amount of profit to bank suggestion over a 12 month
period after deducting subscription fees
Total So Far: Total amount of profit since service entered into Betting Portfolio

MINIMUM SETTINGS
The minimum example illustrates all aspects of the 10 mins a day portfolio to a
minimum financial bank setting. The 12 month total cost of following the services
within this portfolio is £3027 in subscription fees.

We also suggest a total minimum betting bank of £9,500 to follow this range of services
although by applying leverage this can become £7,125 or £4,750

If applying these minimum settings the 12 month profit after deducting membership
fees would be £4,414.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

Minimum Financial Bank Settings

Min Betting Bank: The lowest financial figure recommended for each service
Min Bank Per Pt: The stake per pt when working to the min bank bank size
12m return (minus fees): The profit at the min bank stakes over 12 months with
subscription fee deducted
12m ROI (minus fees): The ROI at the min bank stakes over 12 months with
subscription fee deducted
Total Since Entry: The actual overall live profit to Minimum stakes since March 2009

AVERAGE SETTINGS

As well as the minimum settings we also supply advice to an average size approach for
the lunchtime portfolio. The amount to invest increases naturally in-line with your
profit.

Take a look at the Average returns below:

 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

Average Financial Bank Settings

Ave Betting Bank: The average financial figure recommended for each service
Ave Bank Per Pt: The stake per pt when working to the average bank bank size
12m return (minus fees): The profit at the average bank stakes over 12 months
with subscription fee deducted
12m ROI (minus fees): The ROI at the average bank stakes over 12 months with
subscription fee deducted
Total Since Entry: The actual overall live profit to average stakes since March 2009

LARGE SETTINGS

Finally we also list the large settings that we also supply advice to for each service.
The amount to invest again increases, however your profit does so also.

Take a look at the large scale returns:

 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

Large Financial Bank Settings

Large Betting Bank: The large financial figure recommended for each service
Large Bank Per Pt: The stake per pt when working to the large bank bank size
12m return (minus fees): The profit at the large bank stakes over 12 months with
subscription fee deducted
12m ROI (minus fees): The ROI at the large bank stakes over 12 months with
subscription fee deducted
Total Since Entry: The actual overall live profit to large stakes since March 2009

ARTICLE SAMPLE 1

To help illustrate the level of content you can expect from each Betting Portfolio Issue,
below we have taken an example article from the ‘Graeme’s Corner’ section.

Please note this is a shortened version of this particular article, which can be read in
full in Issue 2 of the Betting Portfolio.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

GRAEME’S CORNER
Graeme Dand from the Form Analyst service will be providing insightful analysis on a
range of topics each month for the Betting Portfolio service.

Graeme runs the www.theformanalyst.co.uk tipster service and this month he has
analysed the Punter Profits National Hunt systems, which combined have produced one
of the best performing services over the past 2 years.

This article also features contributions from Dave of www.thestakingmachine.com,

who has used his excellent software to analyse the different ways of staking available
for this service.

Analysis of Punter’s Profits NH Portfolio results from 16th Nov-91 to 23rd Mar-09

This review centres on a group of different systems which are defined by Punter Profits
as their NH Portfolio. There are 6 systems in total and they look to have been chosen
as they are all profitable in their own right and like any investment strategy,
diversification is a way of spreading the exposure for the investor (e.g. reducing the
risk).

I’ve read the excellent review carried out by the SBC in March 2008 and I’m going to
try to look at areas different than those explored in that report. I’ll start by discussing
the results and explaining why it is clear that this service has a significant ‘edge’ but
I’ll then try to look at ways we can improve the profitability of the service. The three
main areas I discuss are trying to find where they have the biggest edge and exploiting
that or looking for places where they may not be too profitable.
Live performance spreadsheet download:
http://www.punterprofits.com/download/nh-portfolio-live.xls

Historical performance download:

http://www.punterprofits.com/download/nh-portfolio.xls

Analysis of Results

The starting point for any review of a tipster service should be a simple analysis of
results. Thankfully, PP are very good at sharing their results and you can download a
spreadsheet of their results at their site. Some of these workings here are straight
from their site with some added commentary and analysis by me as to what it actually
means to us punters.

Below is a quick summary of the results by system and the Profit and return on
investment for each system. Each system operates to win only for level stakes and
looks fairly easy to follow.
BreakDown By System
SP SP Plus
System Bets Winners Strike Rate Profit ROI Average Odds Break-Even SR Profit ROI Average Odds Break-Even SR
A 1248 547 43.8% 186 14.9% 2.0 33.1% 264 21.2% 2.2 31.3%
B 550 293 53.3% 81 14.7% 1.6 39.1% 109 19.8% 1.7 37.1%
C 1079 478 44.3% 135 12.6% 1.8 35.1% 200 18.5% 2.0 33.2%
D 1040 365 35.1% 123 11.9% 2.9 25.6% 195 18.8% 3.2 24.0%
E 693 160 23.1% 239 34.5% 8.2 10.9% 324 46.8% 9.2 9.8%
F 410 140 34.1% 118 28.8% 4.0 20.0% 158 38.6% 4.4 18.6%

Total 5020 1983 39.5% 883 17.6% 3.1 24.2% 1250 24.9% 3.5 22.5%
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

One of things that stands out about this service is simply the number of bets that we
can base any analysis on. We have data going back to 1991 and that incorporates over
5,000 bets in total, so any findings can be assumed to be accurate and should continue
into the future if the past performance is a true indication of the future performance
(we always have to assume this as if not, there is no point in analysing the past
results!).

I didn’t want to get too bogged down into looking at each system in isolation but by
looking at the average odds, we can see how each system operates.

Systems A-D appear to be concentrating on shorter prices with B and C having average
odds of less than 2/1 whereas system E has average odds of 8/1 and system F has
average odds of 4/1. In totality, the average odds of all systems is 3/1, so you would
be looking for a high strike rate of winners greater than 24.2% at SP to make a profit.
As you can see above, the actual strike rate of winners is 39.5%, so there is a
significant edge here.

You can see that the higher ROI is achieved with the higher average odds, which is
consistent with other tipsters in the market but importantly, the ROI achieved at SP of
34.5% for system E and 28.8% for system F to SP is phenomenal. With SP Plus, the
results are even better with ROI of 46.8% and 38.6% respectively.

Clearly, they appear to have a significant edge on every system but the greatest edge
lies with systems E and F. Therefore, punters can effectively choose a portfolio of
systems to meet their needs. If punters prefer a fewer number of bets with a higher
average odds, they could play on systems E and F only. Obviously, the more systems
you play on, the higher the profit with this service as every system generates a profit
but I know that not everyone likes frequent bets and may prefer the more selective
approach.

However, one thing to consider if you play individual strategies is the expected number
of losers. I’m not going to discuss this too much (was covered in last months SBC
Portfolio issue) but by using a simple expected losing sequence (ELS) formula, I can see
that the expected losing run for system B is only 8 whereas the expected losing run for
system E is 24. Overall, the expected losing run for PP Portfolio is only 17 and
amazingly, their worst run has been 17 losers, so it at least shows the formula works!
When deciding upon a portfolio of systems or tipsters, it is important that you consider
the ELS and how it fits in with your risk aversion.

Example of how to exploit the edge

From now on, I am going to look at the portfolio as a whole and not as independent
systems. This makes sense as the reason for having a portfolio of systems like this is to
diversify the risk and by only playing certain systems, you may be increasing your
return but you are also increasing the risk attached with those returns.

I’ve looked at a few different things but the one thing that stands out and which I’ll
discuss is the returns by the SP of each selection. I think this provides a good insight
into the sort of edge that the service has at each end of the market. I also think it
throws up some very interesting results for this service.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits
Odds Bets Winners Strike Rate Profit ROI
0.02 - 0.5 316 247 78.2% 16 4.9%
0.51 - 1 884 505 57.1% 10 1.2%
1.1 - 2 1467 631 43.0% 145 9.9%
2.1 - 3 882 296 33.6% 180 20.4%
3.33 - 4 553 139 25.1% 98 17.7%
4.5 - 5 262 71 27.1% 144 54.8%
5.5 - 6 179 36 20.1% 65 36.0%
6.5 - 7 120 18 15.0% 21 17.5%
7.5 - 8 87 12 13.8% 20 23.0%
8.5 - 9 43 9 20.9% 47 109.3%
10 + 227 19 8.4% 138 60.8%
Overall 5020 1983 39.5% 883 17.6%

One thing that stands out here is the fact that the edge that PP has at the shorter end
of the market is very small. A ROI of only 4.9% on the shortest prices and a ROI of 1.2%
on slightly longer prices isn’t the best and therefore, you could easily drop these from
the portfolio of selections. You’d be as well sticking your money in the bank instead of
backing these selections!

Looking at the fact that over 50% of the selections (2667 out of 5020) are at the end of
the market where they have the lowest edge (Overall ROI is only 6.4% on these top 3
group of odds), I would be inclined to not follow these selections.

If we take away these bets completely from the service, the returns look like this:

Odds Bets Winners Strike Rate Profit ROI

2.1 + 2353 600 25.5% 712 30.3%

In my opinion, this looks remarkable with a ROI of over 30% and a strike rate of 25%.
This would make PP one of the most profitable in the market and would rival Equine
Investments as the best service out there.

Obviously, these returns are to SP and using SP Plus, they are even better. In my
opinion, no tipster service in the market using SP or SP Plus can match these results
once you drop the shorter priced selections from this service.

As you will have noticed, the strike rate drops significantly by dropping these shorter
priced selections and therefore, what has happened to the Expected Losing Sequence?

The expected losing run increases to 26 and the maximum losing run you would have
suffered is 25, so that looks OK also.

For completeness, here is what the P&L graph would have looked like:
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits
Punters Profit NH (All selections 2/1 or bigger)
1200.0
SP Cumulative Profit (SP > 2)

1000.0 SP Plus Cumulative Profit (SP > 2)

800.0

600.0

400.0

200.0

0.0
1 111 221 331 441 551 661 771 881 991 1101 1211 1321 1431 1541 1651 1761 1871 1981 2091 2201 2311

-200.0

Conclusion

I personally think that it is a no brainer to exclude all bets at 2/1 or less from your
portfolio. The edge that is apparent of these bets is very small and therefore, it drags
down the ROI greatly. By missing these bets, it allows you to free up some of your
capital as you won’t be placing as many bets and it means the service takes even less
time to follow also, so seems to be an easy decision to reduce the number of bets.

Graeme Dand
www.theformanalyst.co.uk
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

ARTICLE SAMPLE 2

To help illustrate the level of content you can expect from each Betting Portfolio Issue,
below we have taken an example article from the Under The Bonnet section. This
particular article focuses on the truth surrounding losing sequences and how you need
to get to grips with them for each service you follow.

UNDER THE BONNET

This Month: Losing sequences and how to handle them
Losing runs are a fact of life for any gambling investor and understanding them
properly can be the difference between success and failure at times.

Those of you who utilise the SBC forum on a regular basis will be familiar with the
gnashing of teeth that goes on when any service experiences a losing run. Very often
the pain is being most acutely felt by the more inexperienced punter, or those that
have not understood the concept of losing runs.

Our attitude here is to cater for the worst possible scenario and then build from there,
and to always have a grasp on what the worst historical run has been and what we can
expect. Therefore if you join a service and it does have a losing period of distinct
length then you are fully prepared for it both mentally and financially.

As the old saying goes…fail to prepare and prepare to fail. This certainly applies to
those who begin following a service blindly and lose their nerve when a losing run hits.
Their can be no worse feeling than stopping following a tipping service in the midst of a
losing run, only for it then to suddenly pick out a few winners which you have missed
out on.

Many people attribute this to the law of sod that as soon as they stop backing advice
from a tipster in a losing run, then a winning run hits. In actual fact its not simply bad
luck but the punters fault for poor understanding of sequences and un-managed
expectations.

The best way to cope with a losing sequence is through the use of a proper Points
Betting Bank, which is designed per service to manage such losses. However many
people still struggle when losing runs hit despite this and this is where the proper
managed expectations come in.

Understand losing sequences

A great article that illustrates losing sequences perfectly can be found at

http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/dont_go_broke!.htm. You need to register for free to
read this but its worth your time.

This illustrates a table of how the strike-rate of any service is directly linked to losing
sequences and you can easily apply it to any service you follow.

We heartily recommend you spend sometime with the stats table and look at each
service you are following to better understand the potential ups and downs that you
will experience as a member.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits

To illustrate some key points though let’s use the table to pick out some fascinating
points to get us started.

Example A – Tipster service with a 50% Strike-rate

1 in 2 selections for this service win so it will be working to short odds. At a basic
average price per selection of 11/10 (2.1) than with a 50% strike-rate you make a 10%
ROI.

At 11/10 prices punters fall into the trap of thinking ‘oh I could pick that horse out’
and stop following if they see long losses. The sequence table indicates however that
there is still a 75% chance of having 7 consecutive losses. Concerningly there is also a
25% chance of a run of 11 losers in sequence.

The most important stat here though is the chance of a run of 15 loses in succession
which although has only less than a 1 in 100 chance of happening is still likely at some
point.

Example B – Tipster service with a 80% Strike-rate

Let’s take a service with a high strike rate of success at short odds, which perhaps
could be a place backing service for example. Dazzler is in our portfolios and he works
to similar principles.

With a 4 out of 5 strike rate, than if backing of odds of 3/10 (0.3), you would make a
20% ROI on average every 5 bets.

Even with such a strike rate, there is still a 75% chance of 3 losers on the bounce and
even a 25% chance of 5 in sequence. There is also a less than 1% chance of 7 losses in
sequence,

It sounds crazy to think that a service advising horses as short as 3/10 could have 7
losers on the bounce but it’s not as unlikely as you would expect. Would you be able to
stomach such a losing run? After all at 3/10 it would take 22 subsequent winning bets
just to make back such a loss.

Example C – Tipster service with a 16% Strike-rate

The reason I have chosen a service with a 16% strike rate is to effectively emulate the
Tipping legends service which currently has a rate of 15.8%. The average price of
selection is just over 9/1.

There has been a whole lot of misunderstanding about Tipping Legends and what to
expect and they appear to bear the brunt of this as they are a high profile racing
service that lots of people follow.

They key figure here is the 16% strike-rate which quite scarily indicates that long losing
runs are very likely to happen…and regularly.

There is a 75% chance of a run of 24 losers in sequence, a 50% chance of 29, a 25%
chance of 34 and less than 1% of a run of 53!!!

If you are following a service with a strike rate of 16%, are you prepared to have a
losing run of 53 bets? What’s more is your betting bank large enough to cover this?
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits
Example D – Tipster service with a 8% Strike-rate

To finalise these examples lets look at a high odds low strike rate kind of service such
as Double The Odds, who have a 8.25% long-term strike-rate.

In our own experience, we have found that the lower the strike-rate that any given
service has, then the more abuse they will get during losing runs, and the less likely
punters are to stick with.

Often with a 8% strike rate you can also go weeks, even months without winners so it’s
a real test of your betting patience as the stats will reveal.

There is a 75% chance of a run of 42 losers, a 50% chance of 51, a 25% chance of 61 and
even a less than 1% chance of a sequence of 101 or more!

A quick glance at the DTO spreadsheet shows losing sequences of 41, 36, 38, 45, 32, 37
and 39 which indicate how often these runs have kicked in. Despite this fact they still
show a profit of 28.06% ROI!

If ever there was any doubt as to why we recommend at least a 250 Points Betting Bank
for this service, then there is your reasoning!

Work to the less than 1% chance margin

Now you may be prepared to ignore the sequences listed in the less than 1% range as
highly unlikely to happen but that is foolish.

Most services we follow have hundreds, sometimes thousands of bets in their history
and although the chance of these losing sequences is less then 1% it still will happen at
some point effectively every 100+ bets you have.

Sometimes even the highly unlikely losing sequence will happen twice in quick
succession as well.

Don’t see it as being overly risk-averse but being sensible and remember the mantra –
If it can happen, it will happen (even if it’s less than 1% likely to).

Lack of stats means lopsided returns.

One mistake that so many people make is trying to weigh up these facts for a service
when they have only a small range of results to go from.

To be as accurate as possible you really need a large range of stats to work from,
otherwise you are working in the dark.

To illustrate this flip a coin 10 times and you might get 7 heads and 3 tails, but flip if
500 times and you will get closer to 250 heads and 250 tails.

Therefore a service without proper stats can be lopsided both positively or negatively.
The real danger here is that if you wade in with big stakes on a service that has
massively over performed over a short period you will be in for a nasty shock.
 Betting Portfolio
Step by step guide to achieving long-term betting profits
This is why so often at SBC we recommend waiting to see more results for so many
potentially interesting services. They may show promise but to get overly excited about
them and wade in without due diligence is foolhardy.

Let stats guide your perspective

Finally the best advice we can give you is to let statistics guide your perspective. It can
help a great deal during losing runs to check out something simple like losing runs and
likely sequences based upon a strike-rate.

Perspective for far too many gamblers goes out the window when a losing run hits and
we all too often can hear comments like ‘No tipster should ever have losing months’,
and ‘dreadful tipping recently’ which are sadly often misguided. Ultimately this
frustration can be a barrier to success for so many punters, who stop when the going
gets tough and lose out in the long run.

Our recommendation is to make a note of the sequences for every service in your
portfolio and understand what it is you can expect. It will be of comfort during losing
runs!

When dealing with issues of finance such as when betting, the temptation and the
pressure can be great, and this also links into why any money you use when betting
should be money you are prepared to lose. If gambling with money needed to pay the
bills then you most likely need to stop altogether and seriously re-evaluate.

THANKS FOR READING

We hope you have enjoyed reading this sample edition and explanation of the
Betting Portfolio service.

Membership of the service can be obtained via this link:

www.secretbettingclub.com/Portfolio

If you have any questions on the service, please do not hesitate to contact Mike via
portfolio@secretbettingclub.com