Moffat Centre Provan Hall New Build Business Case

Feasibility Analysis
for a New Build Visitor Centre

at Provan Hall and Auchinlea Park

CONTENTS
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 4
1.1. Aims and Objectives ................................................................................................................................. 4
1.2. Business Model ........................................................................................................................................ 4
2. Market Analysis ........................................................................................................... 5

2.1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 5
2.2. The Visitor Attraction Sector ...................................................................................................................... 5
2.2.1 Actual Demand ................................................................................................................................ 5
2.3. Profile of Visitors to Attractions ................................................................................................................. 11
2.3.1 Importance of Children in Visit Decisions .......................................................................................... 12
2.4. Educational Market ................................................................................................................................. 14
2.5. Glasgow Fort as a Market ........................................................................................................................ 15
2.6. Clydebuilt at Breahead, Renfrewshire ....................................................................................................... 16
2.7. STEAM (Museum of the Great Western Railway) at the McArthur Glen Designer Outlet Village, Swindon ....... 17
2.7.1 Catering ........................................................................................................................................ 18
2.7.2 Retail ............................................................................................................................................ 18
2.7.3 Visitor Types ................................................................................................................................. 18
2.7.4 Revenue Sources .......................................................................................................................... 18
2.7.5 Marketing ...................................................................................................................................... 18
2.8. Lowry Centre and the Lowry Designer Outlet Mall at Salford Quays ............................................................. 19
2.9. Seasonality of Demand ........................................................................................................................... 20
2.10. Revenue............................................................................................................................................ 21
2.10.1 Average Spend .............................................................................................................................. 21
2.10.2 Dwell Time and Its Impact on Spending ............................................................................................ 22
2.11. The Wedding Market .......................................................................................................................... 24
2.11.1 Demand ........................................................................................................................................ 24
2.11.2 Supply .......................................................................................................................................... 24
2.11.3 Timing and Access ......................................................................................................................... 24
3. Garden Centre Feasibility ........................................................................................... 27

3.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 27
3.1.1 Weather Issues .............................................................................................................................. 27
3.1.2 Garden Centre Demand ................................................................................................................. 27
3.1.3 Competition in the Garden Centre Market ......................................................................................... 29
3.1.4 Operating Margins of Garden Centres .............................................................................................. 30
3.1.5 Where People Buy Garden Products ................................................................................................ 30
3.1.6 Space Required for Garden Sales ................................................................................................... 31
3.1.7 Security Issues with Outdoor Sales .................................................................................................. 31
3.1.8 Feasibility ...................................................................................................................................... 31
4. Catering and Retail Benchmarks ................................................................................. 32

4.1. Inn The Park, St James’ Park ................................................................................................................... 32
4.1.1 Catering Management .................................................................................................................... 33
i

4.1.2 Signage and Information Provision .................................................................................................. 33

4.1.3 Catering Offer ................................................................................................................................ 33
4.1.4 Information and Signage ................................................................................................................. 35
4.2. Wakehurst Place, National Trust, East Sussex .......................................................................................... 36
4.2.1 Location ........................................................................................................................................ 36
4.2.2 Visitor Centre ................................................................................................................................ 36
4.2.3 Catering Offer ................................................................................................................................ 36
4.2.4 Catering Management .................................................................................................................... 37
4.2.5 Retail Offer .................................................................................................................................... 37
4.2.6 Retail Management ........................................................................................................................ 37
5. Visitor Centre Facilities .............................................................................................. 39

5.1. Facilities and Services ............................................................................................................................. 39
5.1.1 Volunteer and Community Input ...................................................................................................... 39
5.1.2 From Local Amenity to Day Visitor Destination .................................................................................. 40
5.1.3 Embedded Flexibility ...................................................................................................................... 40
5.1.4 Converting Visitor to Spenders ........................................................................................................ 40
5.1.5 Attracting Glasgow Fort Users ......................................................................................................... 40
6. Business Model Viability ............................................................................................ 42

6.1. Visitor Number Projections ...................................................................................................................... 42
6.2. Revenue Sources ................................................................................................................................... 42
6.2.1 Admissions Revenue/Donations ...................................................................................................... 43
6.2.2 Day Catering Revenue ................................................................................................................... 44
6.2.3 Evening Catering Revenue ............................................................................................................. 44
6.2.4 Mainstream Retail and Plant Sales Revenue .................................................................................... 44
6.2.5 Schools Revenue ........................................................................................................................... 44
6.2.6 Meetings, Exhibitions and Events Revenue ...................................................................................... 44
6.2.7 Wedding Revenue ......................................................................................................................... 45
6.2.8 Community Use ............................................................................................................................. 45
6.3. Operating Costs ................................................................................................................................... 46
6.3.1 Staffing ......................................................................................................................................... 46
6.3.2 Building Maintenance ..................................................................................................................... 46
6.3.3 Change and Renewal of Foyer and Exhibition Displays...................................................................... 46
6.3.4 Catering essentials and repairs ....................................................................................................... 47
6.3.5 Utilities (Heat, light and power, etc.) ................................................................................................. 47
6.3.6 Rates ............................................................................................................................................ 47
6.3.7 Insurance ...................................................................................................................................... 47
6.3.8 Cleaning ....................................................................................................................................... 47
6.3.9 Administration ................................................................................................................................ 47
6.3.10 Marketing ...................................................................................................................................... 47
6.4. Revenue Projections ............................................................................................................................... 48
6.5. Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 49
6.6. Operational Governance ......................................................................................................................... 50
6.6.1 Fee Structure ................................................................................................................................ 50
6.6.2 Business Unit Access ..................................................................................................................... 50
ii

6.7. Procurement of Contractor ....................................................................................................................... 50

6.7.1 Commencement of contract, contract period and termination requirements .......................................... 50
6.7.2 Contribution to Fit-out and Maintenance Responsibilities.................................................................... 50
6.7.3 Finance ......................................................................................................................................... 50
6.7.4 Financial Audit ............................................................................................................................... 51
6.7.5 Service Provision ........................................................................................................................... 51
6.7.6 Maintenance and Management of Equipment Servicing and Guarantees ............................................. 51
6.7.7 Staffing ......................................................................................................................................... 51
6.7.8 Cleaning and Refuse Disposal ........................................................................................................ 52
6.7.9 Music/Ambience ............................................................................................................................ 52
6.7.10 Information Provision ...................................................................................................................... 52
6.7.11 Systems Provision ......................................................................................................................... 52
6.7.12 Compliance with Legislation ............................................................................................................ 53
6.7.13 Insurance ...................................................................................................................................... 53
6.7.14 Financial Check ............................................................................................................................. 53
6.7.15 Security ........................................................................................................................................ 53
6.7.16 Licenses ....................................................................................................................................... 53
6.7.17 Deliveries ...................................................................................................................................... 53
6.7.18 GCC Responsibilities ..................................................................................................................... 53
7. Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................... 54

7.1. Entry to a Competitive Market .................................................................................................................. 54
7.2. Visitor Numbers and Financial Projections are conservative estimates ......................................................... 54
7.3. Selling a Park Offer ................................................................................................................................. 54
7.4. Flexible Space ........................................................................................................................................ 54
7.5. Use Dominated by Local Population ......................................................................................................... 55
7.6. Need for Visitor Count Survey .................................................................................................................. 55
7.7. Fort visitors will be crucial to business ...................................................................................................... 55
7.8. Branding the Attraction ............................................................................................................................ 55
7.9. Friends of Provan Hall time remains crucial ........................................................................................ 56
7.10. Type of Operation .............................................................................................................................. 56
7.11. Value to Prospective Contractor ........................................................................................................... 56
iii
7. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS FOR PREFERRED BUSINESS MODEL
1. Introduction
1.1. Aims and Objectives
The key aim of Phase 2 of the study is to determine the viability of a new build visitor centre located in Auchinlea
Park and linked to the heritage offer of Provan Hall.
The objectives of the feasibility exercise are to:

• Identify likely demand for a new build visitor centre
• Provide a financial analysis of the new build operation
• Include social and community use of the facility
• Utilise relevant benchmark case studies that would inform the successful operation of the new facilities
• a stakeholder consultation, to gain insight and support for the project and its future through interviews
and workshops (this was undertaken in Phase 1 of the project)
1.2. Business Model
The business model that was explored included the following suite of services:
• Interpretation that complements that present in the historic buildings

• Catering facility with outlook to Pond, including indoor and outdoor seating
• Flexible retail facility integrated with catering
• Outdoor plant sales areas integrated with indoor retail
• Meetings, Events and Exhibition space
• Educational use (schools, FE, adult education)
• Community usage
• Wedding ceremonies and receptions
• WC and baby-changing facilities
• Back-of-house areas (kitchen, kitchen storage, retail storage, staff room, rubbish area, etc.)
It should be highlighted that these services would be provided in addition to the likely improvements that will be
undertaken in Auchinlea Park and at Provan Hall regardless of whether a new build facility goes ahead:
• conservation and upgrade of historic buildings and courtyard

• development of gardens
• woodland interpretation and trail
• integrate renovation of pond
• signage and interpretation throughout the Park that directs visitor to facilities
• refurbish access and improve signage around site periphery
4
2. Market Analysis
2.1. Introduction
This section of the report looks at the demand and supply issues in the broad leisure visits sector and specific
visitor attraction sector.
2.2. The Visitor Attraction Sector
This analysis reviews trends in four visitor attractions categories that activity within Provan Hall could fit, namely:
• historic properties
• heritage/visitor centres
• parks
• gardens
Finally, we will explore visitation patterns to the Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley area to gain understanding of
visits to the attractions in the area.
2.2.1 Actual Demand

There have been mainly modest movements in visitation to relevant attraction categories between 2003 and
2007, illustrating that demand has been stagnating in recent years.
Table 2.1 – Visits to Selected Attractions by Category, 2003-2007

Category Sample %07/06 %06/05 %05/04 %04/03
Country/Forest Park 18 +0.5 -1.2 +13.8 -0.8
Garden 33 -0.6 +1.5 -2.0 -0.9
Heritage/Visitor Centre 86 +0.4 +2.2 -3.1 +0.4
Historic House/Palace 41 +1.7 +1.7 -4.0 +1.9
Nature Reserve/Wetlands/Wildlife Trips 16 +9.9 +6.3 +0.1 +0.5
Greater Glasgow & Clyde Valley 49 +1.1 -0.4 +12.2 +0.3
Scotland 522 +0.6 +1.0 +3.0 +0.8
It should also be borne in mind that in terms of overall visits, Country/Forest Parks attract a much larger numbers
of visits on average than other attraction categories, as shown in the Table 2.2 below.
This will have an implication for the type of services that should be offered in order to tap into the spend of
visitors, as well access to these services. For example, a narrowly themed stand-alone visitor centre that
charges entry is unlikely to achieve any significant expenditure from visitors, whereas a free entry visitor centre
linked to park activities and hosting catering and/or retail services will have a greater scope for attracting
expenditure. Any development should therefore seek to maximise the physical and cultural linkages between
casual park use and access to buildings, services and other activities.
5
Table 2.2 – Visits to Selected Attractions by Category, 2007

Category Average visits 2007
Country/Forest Park 409,543
Garden 52,072
Heritage/Visitor Centre 57,696
Historic House/Palace 28,092
Nature Reserve/Wetlands/Wildlife Trips 31,258
Greater Glasgow & Clyde Valley 214,426
Scotland 66,902
The Scottish visitor attraction sector is mostly composed of attractions welcoming well under 50,000 visits per
annum, as shown below.
Figure 2.1 – Visits to Selected Attractions by Category, 2007
As shown in Table 2.3, visits to designated visitor attractions in Greater Glasgow vary enormously from over 6
million to 150. More pertinently, the median (2nd quartile) visitor figure of 33,259 better reflects demand for most
attractions in the Greater Glasgow area. This begins to inform us of a visitor number estimate for the heritage
centre/historic house offer at Provan Hall. As a simply stand alone heritage centre/historic house operation, we
would perhaps envisage a figure below the median figure. This is mainly because the heritage centre/historic
house experience is already well provided for in Glasgow from properties that have significantly more
distinguished histories and profiles.
However, as already mentioned, parks and gardens evidently attract a much larger number of visits – be it that
this will include a significant number repeat visits by residents using the facility for incidental activities such as
walking the dog or getting a breath of fresh air. If the new build attraction and other improvements to the
wider park are implemented, we would reasonably expect a figure in the region of 50,000 visitors.
The higher visitation within parks will provide greater opportunities for visitor spend, such as:
• impulse buys or casual purchases such as hot & cold drinks, snacks, news vending
• seasonal and one-off events
• targeted social and leisure provision – e.g. farmers markets, children’s parties, etc.
• targeted educational provision
6
Effectively, any development that needs to work on a profit-making or at least break-even basis will require the
integration of park activity with the content and services provided in either renovated or new build facilities.
Another key aspect of the Glasgow visitor attraction sector is the high number of free attractions. Roughly two-
thirds of attractions have no charge for entry, so that for Provan Hall it is likely that there would be no revenue
source from admissions. It would therefore be imperative that attractive opportunities are developed to
encourage visitors to spend their leisure money during a visit.
7
Table 2.3 – Visit to Visitor Attractions in Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley, 2006 and 2007
Owner Attraction 2007 2006 %07/06 F S Cat.
LA Strathclyde Country Park, Motherwell 6,254,706 6,245,533 +0.1 F CP
LA Kelvingrove Art Gallery & MuseumError! Bookmark not defined., Glasgow 2,232,475 1,880,956 +18.7 F MAG
LA Drumpellier Country Park, Motherwell 999,023 962,747 +3.8 F CP
LA Palacerigg Country Park, Cumbernauld 648,123 638,407 +1.5 F CP
LA Chatelherault Country Park, Hamilton 642,507 E 492,797 E +30.4 F CP
LA Gallery of Modern Art, Glasgow 580,148 554,152 +4.7 F MAG
LA Museum of Transport, Glasgow 535,845 506,339 +5.8 F MAG
G Falkirk WheelError! Bookmark not defined., Falkirk 513,907 437,388 +17.5 F VC
LA Mugdock Country Park, Milngavie 513,520 E 543,055 -5.4 F CP
CT Glasgow Science Centre, Glasgow 480,864 410,513 +17.1 MAG
LA Glasgow Botanic Gardens, Glasgow 400,000 E 375,000 +6.7 F G
LA Calderglen Country Park, East Kilbride 398,761 E 428,565 E -7.0 F CP
LA Gleniffer Braes Country Park, Paisley 355,219 E 378,120 -6.1 F CP
CT New Lanark Village and Visitor CentreError! Bookmark not defined., Lanark 333,620 E 354,425 -5.9 F VC
LA People's Palace, Glasgow 277,536 339,976 -18.4 F MAG
LA The Burrell Collection, Glasgow 192,551 203,903 -5.6 F MAG
LA St Mungo Museum, Glasgow 187,624 178,558 +5.1 F MAG
HS Glasgow Cathedral, Glasgow 159,177 E 156,221 +1.9 F WS
LA Provand's Lordship, Glasgow 123,768 124,241 -0.4 F MAG
O University of Glasgow Visitor Centre, Glasgow 118,000 E 125,000 -5.6 F VC
LA James Hamilton Heritage Park, East Kilbride 112,715 E 107,800 E +4.6 F S CP
P The Willow Tea Rooms, Glasgow 93,684 E 97,354 -3.8 OHP
CT House for an Art Lover, Glasgow 88,750 89,165 -0.5 VC
LA Clyde Muirshiel Regional Park, Castle Semple Centre, Lochwinnoch 80,755 E 81,190 -0.5 F VC
NTS Pollok House, Glasgow 79,658 90,062 -11.6 HH
O Hunterian Art Gallery, Glasgow 67,587 E 77,252 E -12.5 F MAG
G National Museum of Rural Life, East Kilbride 57,803 60,264 -4.1 MAG
LA Scotland Street School Museum, Glasgow 55,652 56,734 -1.9 F MAG
O Hunterian Museum, Glasgow 52,023 E 39,005 +33.4 F S MAG
P SFA Football Museum, Glasgow 51,421 48,232 +6.6 MAG
CT Waverley Excursions Ltd, Glasgow 50,910 E 49,866 +2.1 S O
R Paisley Abbey, Paisley 50,000 E 50,000 0.0 F WS
O Collins Gallery, Glasgow 43,000 E 48,000 -10.4 F MAG
LA McLean Museum and Art Gallery, Greenock 42,728 23,598 +81.1 F MAG
CT Tall Ship at Glasgow Harbour, Glasgow 35,000 E 35,697 -2.0 MAG
R Carfin Grotto, Motherwell 35,000 E 32,850 E +6.5 F S WS
CT RSPB Nature Reserve, Lochwinnoch 31,517 35,302 -10.7 N
NTS Greenbank Gardens, Glasgow 31,258 29,145 +7.2 G
LA Motherwell Heritage Centre, Motherwell 31,022 DK F VC
PLC Celtic Museum Trust, Glasgow 22,000 E 20,748 +6.0 VC
O Glasgow School of Art Enterprises Ltd, Glasgow 20,388 21,172 -3.7 MAG
NTS David Livingstone Centre, Glasgow 18,241 19,150 -4.7 VC
NTS Tenement House, Glasgow 18,155 15,067 +20.5 S HH
LA Auld Kirk Museum, Kirkintilloch 15,049 13,259 +13.5 F MAG
CT Clydebuilt Maritime Museum, Glasgow 14,995 13,000 +15.3 VC
LA Clyde Muirshiel Regional Park, Muirshiel Centre, nr Lochwinnoch 14,227 E 14,892 -4.5 F VC
LA Clyde Muirshiel Regional Park Cornalees Centre, Greenock 13,328 E 17,706 -24.7 F CP
CT Falls of Clyde Wildlife Reserve and Visitor Centre, New Lanark 12,516 12,907 -3.0 N
HS Bothwell Castle, Uddingston 9,075 6,535 +38.9 C
LA Lillie Art Gallery, Glasgow 9,066 9,002 +0.7 F MAG
8
Owner Attraction 2007 2006 %07/06 F S Cat.

LA Glasgow Museums Resource Centre, Glasgow 8,555 10,147 -15.7 F MAG
CT Glasgow Police Museum, Glasgow 8,439 8,568 -1.5 F MAG
HS Craignethan Castle, Lesmahagow 5,606 5,550 +1.0 C
LA Fossil GroveError! Bookmark not defined., Glasgow 5,427 12,438 -56.4 F S MAG
NTS Holmwood House, Glasgow 4,445 4,487 -0.9 HH
HS Newark Castle, Port Glasgow 4,235 3,947 +7.3 S C
P Royal Highland Fusiliers Museum, Glasgow 4,086 E 4,994 -18.2 F MAG
LA Clydebank Museum, Clydebank 3,963 3,305 +19.9 F MAG
LA John Hastie Museum, Strathaven 3,415 E 3,000 E +13.8 F S MAG
LA Cumbernauld Museum, Cumbernauld 2,415 4,518 -46.5 F MAG
LA Hunter House Museum, East Kilbride 1,775 E 1,600 E +10.9 F S MAG
LA Martyr's School, Glasgow 1,652 2,235 -26.1 F MAG
G Customs and Excise Museum, Greenock 1,454 1,357 +7.1 F MAG
CT Moat Park Heritage Centre, Biggar 1,421 643 +121.0 S MAG
NTS Weaver's Cottage, Kilbarchan 1,414 1,208 +17.1 S MAG
CT Biggar Gas Works, Biggar 1,153 DK S MAG
R Friends of Govan Old Parish Church, Glasgow 1,138 1,247 -8.7 F S WS
LA Shotts Heritage Centre, Shotts 600 E 540 E +11.1 F VC
NTS Hutcheson's Hall, Glasgow 574 971 -40.9 F HH
CT Greenhill Covenanters Farmhouse, Biggar 368 225 +63.6 S HM
CT Leadhills Miners Library, Leadhills 237 E 158 +50.0 S MAG
CT Crawfordjohn Heritage Venture, Strathaven 150 99 +51.5 S VC
9
The most up to date information on visitor attraction performance (i.e. for 2008) is drawn from the Visitor
Attraction Barometer. The latest report collated visits from 500 attractions in Scotland (circa half the total
attraction population in Scotland), and noted a decrease in visits overall of -4.1%, which operators reported was
due to the current economic circumstances, a downturn in American visitors, the high costs of petrol reached
during the year, as well as the poor exchange rate.
The following table shows the breakdown of visits to the 500 attractions that provided monthly visits data during
the periods January-October 2008 and January-October 2007. It clearly identifies monthly changes in visitation
(with visits peaking during July and August) as well as calculating the % change.
Table 2.4 – Sample Visits to Attractions 2008

Attractions Months Visits Months Visits %Change
500 Jan-08 1,424,766 Jan-07 1,515,928 -6.0
Feb-08 1,750,554 Feb-07 1,741,215 0.5
Mar-08 2,264,824 Mar-07 1,896,614 19.4
Apr-08 2,780,266 Apr-07 3,250,532 -14.5
May-08 3,252,133 May-07 3,266,639 -0.4
Jun-08 3,347,835 Jun-07 3,288,254 1.8
Jul-08 4,097,366 Jul-07 4,481,853 -8.6
Aug-08 4,301,654 Aug-07 4,628,120 -7.1
Sep-08 2,998,427 Sep-07 3,056,668 -1.9
Oct-08 2,339,944 Oct-07 2,668,106 -12.3
Source: Moffat Centre, 2008
Downturns in visits were experienced throughout the sector, regardless of admission or size of attraction. This
clearly highlights the impact of the current economic situation on the visitor attraction sector. For Greater
Glasgow and Clyde Valley, the downturn was -6.8% (64 attractions), while for the Glasgow metropolitan area the
decline was much more pronounced (-20.4, 26 attractions).
Attraction categories relating to Provan Hall are highlighted in green in the table below, presenting a mixed
picture with Historic Houses/Palaces and Gardens presenting downturns in visits; Country/Forest Parks and
Heritage/Visitor Centres presenting similar levels of visitation.
Table 2.5 – Comparison of Visits to Attractions, 2007 and 2008

Category Oct-08 Oct-07 % Change Jan-Oct-08 Jan-Oct-07 % Change
Country Park / Forest Park (14) 695,353 884,664 -21.4 9,264,272 9,291,901 -0.3
Garden (29) 60,624 68,105 -11.0 801,702 825,427 -2.9
Heritage/ Visitor Centre (82) 301,366 326,152 -7.6 3,399,649 3,389,038 0.3
Historic House/ Palace (40) 57,272 58,053 -1.3 659,077 697,852 -5.6
Wildlife/ Zoo/ Farm/ Nature Reserve (20) 96,843 101,433 -4.5 1,159,656 1,132,439 2.4
Castle/ Fort (58) 238,931 263,489 -9.3 3,178,650 3,532,335 -10.0
Church/ Abbey/ Cathedral (18) 74,025 81,896 -9.6 1,086,540 1,023,570 6.2
Distillery (20) 30,229 34,680 -12.8 403,234 438,959 -8.1
Historic Heritage Site (40) 36,737 37,799 -2.8 614,203 669,248 -8.2
Industrial/ Craft Premises (10) 3,478 3,336 4.3 43,213 42,775 1.0
Museum/ Art Gallery (160) 676,172 734,183 -7.9 7,110,877 7,958,837 -10.7
Transport Related (9) 68,914 74,316 -7.3 836,696 791,548 5.7
SCOTLAND (500) 2,339,944 2,668,106 -12.3 28,557,769 29,793,929 -4.1
10
2.3. Profile of Visitors to Attractions
Most visitor attractions rely heavily on Local Resident and Day Tripper markets, particularly where the attraction
has a low profile or the offer is centred on local or narrow themes. Provan Hall at present provides such a narrow
theme, but has the potential to have a mixture of themes including its location within a park, its historic house
status, gardens and potentially a visitor centre. Regardless of any reasonable level of redevelopment, we would
still expect local demand from social, leisure and education sources to be critical to the success of the venture.
Table 2.6 – Origin of Visitors to Attractions, 2007

% Locals/
Attraction Category Sample % Overseas Day Trippers % Domestic
Country/Forest Park 13 3.2 87.5 9.3
Garden 16 10.3 48.8 40.9
Heritage/Visitor Centre 74 20.7 48.8 30.5
Historic House/Palace 21 30.2 43.3 26.5
Nature Reserve/Wetlands/Wildlife Trips 12 14.2 48.5 37.3
Castle/Fort 43 45.3 39.3 15.4
Distillery/Vineyard/Brewery 24 51.6 20.2 28.2
Historic Monument/Archaeological Site 26 38.7 48.3 13.0
Industrial/Craft Workplace 7 19.3 34.3 46.4
Museum/Art Gallery 113 19.4 52.3 28.3
Other Historic Property 10 36.8 48.0 15.2
Place of Worship 14 39.9 45.6 14.5
Safari Park/Zoo/Aquarium/Aviary/Farm 14 5.6 64.6 29.8
Steam/Heritage Railway 2 7.5 35.0 57.5
Other 6 26.2 48.0 25.8
Total 395 25.9 48.0 26.1
Source: Moffat Centre, 2008.
The Scottish Recreation Survey1 estimates that the Glasgow City Council area receives some 16.1 million day
visitor per year, with 41% of these coming from residents and 59% from visitors outwith the City Council
boundary. As shown in Table 2.7, the average round trip distance travelled by day visitors to urban destinations
is 17.6 miles, or 28 kilometres. Within a radius of the location this equates to 9 miles or 14.5 kilometres. This
would generally cover the area shown in Figure 2.2, and take in a catchment population of 1.7 million people or
around one-third of Scotland’s population (this is somewhat an overestimation at present, as it includes all
residents within the council areas, rather than only those wards where the circle overlaps.
Table 2.7 - Distance Travelled by Day Visitors to Town Destinations in Scotland

Distance Travelled % Leisure Day visitors (up to 3
hours)
Up to 1 mile 20
Over 1, up to 2 miles 12
Over 2, up 5 miles 22
Over 100 miles 3
Average 17.6 miles round trip
Source: Leisure Day Visits Survey 2002/03, Office for National Statistics (2004)

1
TNS (2008). Scottish Recreation Survey: annual summary report 2006. Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report
No.295 (ROAME No. F02AA614/5).
11
Figure 2.2 – Average 17.6 mile Day Visitor Catchment Area
The Scottish recreation Survey also indicated that local parks and open spaces was the most popular destination
for outdoor activity; which again illustrates the need to include Auchinlea Park (and perhaps the wider Bishop’s
Estate) as central to the profile of the development:
Most
• Local park or open space – 33%
• Water-related – 29%
• Woodland/forest – 15%
• Mountain, hill or moorland – 7%
• Village – 5%
• Farmland – 4%
• Wildlife area – 2%.
2.3.1 Importance of Children in Visit Decisions

The proportion of adults to children among relevant attraction types ranges between 4:1 and 3:1. However, a
significant proportion of these adults will be accompanied by children. As such, the influence of children is much
more pronounced than it may at first appear.
12
Table 2.8 – Visits by Adults and Children

Category Sample % Adults % Children
Country/Forest Park 10 72.3 27.7
Garden 22 85.3 14.7
Heritage/Visitor Centre 77 77.7 22.3
Historic House/Palace 19 87.3 12.7
Nature Reserve/Wetlands/Wildlife Trips 13 74.4 25.6
Total 141 79.4 20.6
Greater Glasgow & Clyde Valley 45 72.4 27.6
As shown in Table 2.9, around 2% of day visitors to town destinations visit an attraction or place of interest; with
the same proportion visiting parks and gardens. What is perhaps more important is the proportion of people
visiting friends, eating and drinking and shopping. For Provan Hall, achieving a self-sustaining position will
depend on how successfully these visitor needs can be serviced on site.
Table 2.9 – Day Visit Activities in Town Destinations

Main Activity %
Visit friends, relatives at home 21
To eat or drink out 18
To go shopping (not food and not regular) 13
For entertainment (cinema, theatre, club) 9
Walking, hillwalking, rambling 6
Hobby or special interest 8
Take part in sports – indoor, outdoor, field, water 3
Watching live sport (not on TV) 4
To take part in informal sports, games, relaxation and 3
wellbeing
Swimming 3
Visit park or garden 2
Visit Leisure attraction, place of interest, special 2
event/exhibition
Drive, sightseeing, picnic, boating 1
Cycling, mountain biking -
Visit beach, sunbathe, paddle in sea -
Source: Leisure Day Visits Survey 2002/03, Office for National Statistics (2004)
13
2.4. Educational Market
It has been indicated that the schools market will be an important segment for Provan Hall. However, setting
targets for this market should be developed in the context of what proportion school visits typically account for at
an attraction. In 2007, 397 attractions reported having welcomed some 686,738 school visits, representing 3.2%
of total visits. Although this seems small, it is a narrowly defined market compared to the more general ‘day
visitor’ or ‘tourist’ markets. Additionally, the schools market is part of that larger children’s market which has a
significant influence over the leisure choices of many adults. As such, much of the content of any overall
interpretation strategy can be developed for educational materials.
Safari Park/Zoo/Aquarium/Aviary/Farm, Museums/Art Galleries and Nature Reserves welcomed the highest
proportion of children who were part of a school group.
The proportion of visits that are made up by educational visits varies between attraction categories. Most of the
categories related to Provan Hall achieved a proportion slightly below the average. For Heritage/Visitor Centres,
the average number of school children per year is 1,725; which given that children are in school for roughly 30
weeks of the year, equates to 60 children per week (or around two to three school groups per week).
Table 2.10 – School Visits to Attractions

Total School Total % School
Attraction Category Sample Visits 2007 Visits 2007 Visits
Country/Forest Park 11 24,631 1,863,640 1.3
Garden 14 6,541 1,068,239 0.6
Heritage/Visitor Centre 71 122,470 4,410,787 2.8
Historic House/Palace 20 16,895 804,093 2.1
Nature Reserve/Wetlands/Wildlife Trips 14 19,873 493,963 4.0
Castle/Fort 43 61,826 2,776,672 2.2
Distillery/Vineyard/Brewery 23 10,877 702,898 1.5
Historic Monument/Archaeological Site 28 20,360 567,188 3.6
Industrial/Craft Workplace 4 180 16,321 1.1
Museum/Art Gallery 121 243,075 5,605,621 4.3
Other Historic Property 10 2,165 202,608 1.1
Place of Worship 17 9,620 1,093,376 0.9
Safari Park/Zoo/Aquarium/Aviary/Farm 13 107,603 1,204,415 8.9
Steam/Heritage Railway 1 436 65,690 0.7
Other 7 40,186 825,721 4.9
Total 397 686,738 21,701,232 3.2
14
2.5. Glasgow Fort as a Market
Glasgow Fort attracts around 12 million visitors a year and, although many are repeat visits, it is a potentially
significant source of demand for Provan Hall. The actual number of unique visitors to Glasgow Fort is difficult to
estimate, given the likely high number of repeat visits. The table below suggests that the number of unique
visitors will be a fraction of the 12 million total.
Table 2.11 - Frequency of use of major shopping centres, December 1999
%
Once in last 12 months 12
Twice in last 12 months 10
Three to five times in last 12 months 15
Six to ten times in last 12 months 11
More than ten times in last 12 months 27
Have not visited in last 12 months 8

Have never visited and never would 7
Have never visited but might in future 10
Don't know *
* less than 0.5%

Source: Mintel (2000), Shopping Centres
Even attracting one in one thousand would equate to 12,000 visitors for Provan Hall. However, the extent to
which some of shoppers can be persuaded to visit Provan Hall is difficult to estimate. Experience of other visitor
attractions that are adjacent to large retail centres suggests that there is a very small crossover indeed – probably
less than one in one thousand. To some extent, this is unsurprising given that the primary role of the companies
who own and manage these centres is to attract and keep shoppers as much as possible at the outlets within the
centres. Nonetheless, Glasgow Fort Management have enthusiastically welcomed the potential development at
Provan Hall such that they see it as complimentary to their offer.
For the purposes of the business plan, we have assumed that around one from every two thousand visitors would
visit the attraction. This equates to around 6,000 visits.
15
2.6. Clydebuilt at Breahead, Renfrewshire
Clydebuilt is a heritage attraction exploring the legacy of shipbuilding on the River Clyde. It was built in
conjunction with the Braehead shopping centre development and is managed by the Scottish Maritime Trust. As
shown below, from initial visitor projections of around 65,000, it attracts less than 15,000.
Braehead itself receives around 17 million visitors per year. Even if all visitors to Clydebuilt were Braehead
shoppers, this would still only represent less than one in one thousand. Thus, it is likely that the cross over is
closer to one in 10,000.
2007 2006 %07/06

Clydebuilt Maritime Museum, Glasgow 14,995 13,000 +15.3
The relationship between Clydebuilt and Braehead is a formal one, with planning permission for the shopping
centre being given on the proviso that a heritage centre (Clydebuilt) be built as part of the development. As
shown below, Braehead actually promotes Clydebuilt through its web site, describing Clydebuilt as “Braehead’s
very own maritime heritage centre”. However, there is little or no promotion of the operation within the shopping
centre itself.
16
2.7. STEAM (Museum of the Great Western Railway) at the McArthur Glen
Designer Outlet Village, Swindon
STEAM (Museum of the Great Western Railway) is located at the McArthur Glen Great Western Outlet Village
near Swindon and is housed in a Grade II listed building which was part of Brunel's locomotive works. It
celebrates the achievements not only of Isambard Kingdom Brunel and tells the story of the men and women who
built, operated and travelled on the Great Western Railway.
STEAM moved to the outlet village in 1999 and was developed at a cost of £13 million. The move appears to
have had a significant impact on visitor numbers as shown in Table X.X.
Table 4.3 – Visitors to the Museum of the Great Western Railway

1998 1999 2000
29,603 20,199 69,000
Source: English Tourism Council
At 6,500 square metres (70,000 square feet), STEAM is more than five times the size of the GWR Museum which
it replaced. The development was jointly funded by:
• The Heritage Lottery Fund

• Swindon Borough Council
• Carillion Development Management
• McArthurGlen
As at 2007, STEAM has attracted around 680,000 visitors over 8 years (roughly 80,000 per year). This
includes:
• Over 1200 visits from school groups (or around 5 groups per week)
• Over 200 companies and organisations have made use of the corporate hospitality facilities.
17
The shopping centre attracts around 3 million visitors a year, compared to the estimated 12 million visitors at
Glasgow Fort and 17 million at Braehead. Thus, on the face of it would appear that STEAM does attract a higher
proportion of shoppers to its premises than Clydebuilt does at Braehead. Indeed, management at STEAM has
acknowledged that many visitors are derived from the Designer Outlet’s passing trade.
2.7.1 Catering
The museum’s ‘Station Café’ can be accessed by both visitors and non-visitors and provides mainly snack type
food; which is reflected in a relatively low average spend per person (under £1).
2.7.2 Retail
The shop sells a range of railway related books, videos and souvenirs. It also includes relatively expensive items
such as model locomotives (from around £180), miniature steam engines (c. £80) and model engine kits (c.
£130), although an average spend of just over £1 illustrates that it is the smaller items that are the mainstay of the
operation. The shop has a mail order operation that is available on-line through email order.
2.7.3 Visitor Types

The fact that the museum benefits from passing trade from the Designer Outlet is illustrated by the significant Day
Visitor market, as shown below.
Days Visitors UK Tourists Overseas Visitors

80% 19% 1%
2.7.4 Revenue Sources

STEAM achieves a revenue breakdown similar to that of admission charging museums in general
Admission Catering Retail

57% 14% 27%
2.7.5 Marketing
Although location may have been one aspect in
generating this improvement, another key
factor has been the integration of the Museum
into the marketing of the outlet village as a
whole. The shopping development is on the
premises of an old railway workshop and this
theme has been carried through in its design,
therefore there is an immediate link with the
Museum. With STEAM being adjacent to the
shopping development, some events include
the services of both parties.
Like Braehead, information on the Designer

Outlet web site regarding STEAM is confined to
a section in the ‘tourist information’ page, as
shown below.
18
2.8. Lowry Centre and the Lowry Designer Outlet Mall at Salford Quays
The Lowry Outlet Mall opened in 2001 and is situated at the heart of Salford Quays, next to attractions such as a
Lowry Centre, the Imperial War Museum North (IWMN) and Old
Trafford stadium.
The Lowry Centre and Outlet Mall share the same courtyard, while
there access to the Imperial War Museum North via a footbridge.
The shopping centre receives around 3.6 million visitors per year,
while the Lowry Centre and IWMN achieve numbers of 850,000
and 220,000 respectively.
As shown below, the Lowry Centre and IWMN are incorporated

into the shopping centre map guide, illustrating that there must be
sufficient crossover of activity to justify their inclusion. Indeed,
there is awareness among management that the attractions help
the profile of the Designer Outlet operation and extend their
product offer.
19
2.9. Seasonality of Demand
The graph below illustrates quarterly visitation curves to visitor attractions to the Greater Glasgow and Clyde
Valley (VisitScotland) Area and to Gardens, Country/Forest Parks, Heritage/Visitor Centres, Gardens, Historic
Houses/Palaces and Nature Reserves/Wetlands/Wildlife Trips in Scotland. The sample of responding attraction in
each category is noted in brackets next to each category.
Figure 2.3 – Seasonality of Visits to Attractions
This graph clearly demonstrates the fluctuation in visits patterns depending on the time of year, with Historic
Houses/Palaces demonstrating the highest seasonality patterns, with barely any visits during the winter months,
and almost half of visits achieved during the summer. This is driven is part by figures provide by the National
Trust for Scotland; most of whose properties close during winter. Nonetheless, this instils an expectation within
the market that such attractions are not visited year round.
Heritage/Visitor Centres showed the second most variation in visits with only 12% of visits occurring during the
first quarter, 31% during the second quarter, 39% during the third quarter and 18% during the final quarter of
2007.
On the other hand, visits to Country/Forest Parks and to the Greater Glasgow & Clyde Valley area show less
seasonal fluctuations, with visits spread fairly evenly throughout the year.
20
2.10. Revenue
2.10.1 Average Spend

The national average spend per visitor was £4.72 for free admission attractions and £6.79 for paid admission
attractions. However, if one takes out the admission charge, then it is evident that free entry attractions achieve a
higher average spend in catering retail.
Given that the nature of the Provan Hall offer is likely to be one of free entry to the visitor centre (either new build,
existing buildings or combination), then this indicates that there is scope to generate income from other activities
– both within the buildings and outdoor areas.
Table 2.11 – Average Spend at Selected Visitor Attractions

Average spend per person in the various attraction
elements
Attraction Category Admission Sample Admission Donations Catering Retail
Free 4+ £0.63 £0.01 £0.94 £2.45
Country/Forest Park
Paid -
Free 5 £0.00 £0.01 £1.61 £1.67
Garden
Paid 7 £2.78 £0.14 £1.13 £1.26
Free 26 £0.55 £0.19 £0.96 £3.83
Heritage/Visitor Centre
Paid 23 £2.32 £0.12 £0.93 £2.44
Free *
Historic House/Palace
Paid 17 £3.85 £0.01 £0.82 £1.47
Free *
Nature Reserve/Wetlands/Wildlife Trips
Paid 6 £4.50 £0.26 £1.21 £4.98
Greater Glasgow & Clyde Valley All 34 £2.34 £0.25 £1.15 £1.99
Free 107 £0.24 £0.44 £0.75 £2.87
National Average Revenue
Paid 204 £3.09 £0.07 £0.65 £2.82
Total 311 £2.11 £0.20 £0.68 £2.84
Notes *: sample size too small to be included (see page 1 for explanation)
+: Caution should be taken when interpreting results due to low sample size.
It should be noted that the average used is for all visitors and not just those visitors spending money on
admission, catering and retail. The Business Plan will be working on the basis of a defined estimate of total
number of visitors, therefore this is how the figures will be used.
As noted below, in Table 2.12, food and drink is by far the main category of expenditure made by day visitors
during their visit. It should also be noted that over half (56%) of day visitors spend nothing at all, so that any
prudent business projections should work on the basis of discounting at least half the day visitor market as a
revenue source.
21
Table 2.12 – Expenditure on a Day Out, 2004-2006

2006 2005 2004
Food & drink 37 42 45
Fuel 15 16 26
Gifts/souvenirs 7 9 8
Car parking 5 5 5
Public transport 4 3 4
Hire of equipment 2 2 1
Maps/leaflets 2 1 2
Purchase of equipment 1 1 1
Other 2 4 2
Any money spent 44 49 56
No money spent at all 56 51 44
2.10.2 Dwell Time and Its Impact on Spending

Revenue generation potential is correlated to dwell times, i.e. the higher the dwell time – particularly in catering
and retail areas – the higher the average spend per visitor. Dwell time can be influenced by the surroundings,
activities and information provision in the dining area, type of food available and location of the gardens and
location of operation within gardens.
In 2007, operators reported that on average visitors spent 10 minutes in the catering operations and 9 minutes in
the retail operations, with Historic Houses/Palaces and Heritage/Visitor Centres identifying the highest average
dwell time in Catering operations, and Heritage/Visitor Centres and Nature Reserves/Wetlands/Wildlife Trips the
highest in Retail.
Table 2.13 – Average Dwell Time at Selected Visitor Attractions

Average time spent (in minutes)
in the various attraction elements:
Category Sample Attraction Catering Retail Other Total
Country/Forest Park 15 89 12 5 2 108
Garden 17 64 11 9 6 90
Heritage/Visitor Centre 68 49 16 12 2 79
Historic House/Palace 21 61 18 7 14 100
Nature Reserve/Wetlands/Wildlife Trips 15 96 8 10 1 114
Greater Glasgow & Clyde Valley 46 59 9 7 2 75
Scotland 421 57 10 9 3 80
It should be noted that the figures presented above are calculated for the whole of Scotland or attraction
category. For example, if an attraction has no retail operation, then visitors spend 0 minutes in the retail area.
When considering those attractions that have retail and/or catering operations, average dwell times rise to around
half an hour in Catering operations and around quarter of an hour in Retail areas, as shown in the following
section, highlighting the importance of these areas within the visitor experience.
22
Table 2.14 – Average Dwell Time at Retail and Catering

Average time spent (in minutes)
Category Sample Catering Sample Retail
Country/Forest Park 5 36 6 13
Garden 8 23 9 16
Heritage/Visitor Centre 33 33 57 14
Historic House/Palace 12 31 14 11
Nature Reserve/Wetlands/Wildlife Trips 4 30 10 15
Greater Glasgow & Clyde Valley 14 28 29 11
Scotland 146 29 323 12
Note: caution should be taken when considering some categories with low number of respondents.
A key point to note is that average spend tends to increase with an increase in average dwell time. This is of
critical importance in designing interpretation and other activities that can hold the visitor for as long as possible.
23
2.11. The Wedding Market
2.11.1 Demand
There were 29,866 marriages in Scotland in 2007, with some 7,959 from people not resident in Scotland. In
Glasgow there were 2,279 marriages in 2007. Added to this are 152 civil partnerships, making a total of 2,431
ceremonies in the City Council area.
According to the annual survey conducted by You & Your Wedding magazine the average cost of a UK wedding
(including honeymoon and rings) in 2008 is £20,273, increasing from £15,243 in 2003. The National Cost of a
Wedding Survey 2008 revealed that the average wedding in the UK costs £20,273, while the average honeymoon
costs £3,220.
2.11.2 Supply
Civil marriages account for just over half (52%) of all marriages. The Marriage (Scotland) Act 2002, allows for
marriage ceremonies to be held at approved places other than registration offices. There are some 800
approved venues now in Scotland. These approved places accounted for half (52%) of all civil marriages in 2007
and is gaining market share every year. In Glasgow itself, there 46 locations registered as approved, as listed
below.
Arta Menzies Glasgow Hotel The Bothy

Arthouse Hotel Oran Mor The Corinthian
Barony Hall Pollok House The Ferry
Celtic Football Club Pollokshields Burgh Hall The Glasgow Art Club
City Halls and Old Fruitmarket St Mungo Museum The Lighthouse
City Inn Hotel Kelvingrove Art Gallery The Millenium Hotel
Crowne Plaza Hotel Winter Gardens Tollcross Park The National Piping Centre
Glasgow Pond Hotel Polo Lounge The Tall Ship at Glasgow Harbour
Glasgow Royal Concert Hall Quality Hotel Central Glasgow The Ubiquitous Chip
Glasgow University Union Radisson SAS Hotel Trades Hall of Glasgow Trust
Hilton Glasgow Grosvenor Ramada Glasgow City Tusk
Hilton Glasgow Hotel Sherbrooke Castle Hotel University of Glasgow
Hotel Du Vin at 1 Devonshire Gardens St. Andrews in the Square West Brewing Company
House for An Art Lover St. Mungo Museum Winter Gardens
Malmaison Hotel, Swallow Hotel Burrell Collection
McCormick Court Building
Many of these locations are offering a high end offer, with a relatively expensive overall cost. Provan Hall could
perhaps enter the market as a local, low cost, community alternative targeted at the East End of Glasgow
population. Targeting a narrower market will also help balance the demands on the site by different visitor
groups.
2.11.3 Timing and Access

The majority of weddings are held on Saturdays, although Friday and Sundays are becoming more popular.
According to VisitScotland commissioned research, the venue is the first decision made. For Provan Hall, a
balance would need to be struck between access to the facilities for general visitors at the weekend and a
wedding party’s guests. This would be particularly important in not displacing mainstream revenue generating
activity during the day – particularly at the weekend. In general, the timeframe for any ceremony and reception
may be as follows:
24
• Earliest ceremonies - late afternoon

• Earliest Receptions - early evening or late afternoon
In the summer, where there may be an expectation from the local population that the visitor centre and catering
facilities should be open later, there is potential for some conflict.
Additionally, there would be a need to cordon off the area for the exclusive use of the wedding party and, for the
wedding guests too, not go beyond these boundaries.
The options open to Provan Hall in terms of facilities are:
1. Ceremony only
2. Reception only
3. Ceremony and Reception
1. Ceremony Only
• Ceremony held in rooms of Provan Hall 1 building
• Ceremony held in courtyard
o Hire of marquee or similar overhead covering
o Inception of retractable overhead covering attached to buildings
• Ceremony held in grounds adjacent to buildings and pond
• Ceremony in new build visitor centre
2. Reception Only
• Hire of marquee for reception
• Reception within new-build visitor centre
3. Ceremony and Reception

• Ceremony held in rooms of Provan Hall 1 building
• Ceremony held in courtyard
o Hire of marquee or similar overhead covering
o Inception of retractable overhead covering attached to buildings
• Ceremony held in grounds adjacent to buildings and pond

• Hire of marquee for reception
• Reception within new-build visitor centre
In order to tap in to the romantic aspect of the wedding venue choice, it is likely that the character of the historic
buildings would be the biggest draw for couples in terms of the ceremony. These buildings and courtyard
however would not be suited to holding receptions, particularly in relation to power sources, toilets facilities and
storage. As such, it would be more practical to host receptions within the new build facility.
25
Glasgow City Council operates its own wedding arrangement service

through the vehicle Wedding Days in Glasgow. Encore Catering, the
commercial catering arm of GCC, delivers much of the on-site services.
Provan Hall could potentially become one of GCC’s wedding locations
and tap into the expertise and economies of scale afforded through these
channels.
26
3. Garden Centre Feasibility
3.1. Introduction
The viability of a small garden centre was to be explored and evaluation of this is provided below. We have
explored the feasibility of such an operation on the basis of four considerations:
• Weather issues
• Demand trends in the garden centre market
• Competition in the garden centre market
• Operating margins of garden centres
3.1.1 Weather Issues

The nature of gardening as a household and leisure activity is such that the weather is crucial to the success or
otherwise of an operation during the year. The unpredictability of the Scottish weather makes it difficult to
forecast stock requirements. For example, the persistently poor weather in 2007 meant that many consumers
did not have the incentive to spruce up their gardens as they were spending less time there. The weather has
both an emotional and practical impact on consumer behaviour, and consequently it is difficult to offset.
Given the short shelf life of many plants, fluctuations in demand can lead to high wastage levels and low margins
on products whose prices need to be discounted in order boost sales. The larger multiples are able deal with
this to some extent through widening their product range to offset the seasonal effects, but it is much more
difficult for small independent retailers to do so.
The difficulties experienced in retailing garden products due to their seasonal nature and the unpredictability of
the weather have led many specialist operators to develop product ranges with which to supplement their income.
Initially this included balancing out the seasonal element with Christmas goods and the introduction of
concessions, but there is now a growing confidence in a wide range of non-core product areas from outdoor and
indoor living accessories to gifts, food, housewares and clothing.
3.1.2 Garden Centre Demand

As shown in Table 3.1, visiting and buying from garden centres has declined marginally from an industry peak in
2003. Roughly two-thirds of adults visit such premises during the year. There is also a relatively high conversion
rate among those who visit a garden centre, with almost 9 out of 10 of visitors going on to purchase something.
This suggests a high level of shopping commitment to the visit, as opposed to simply browsing.
Table 3.1 - Consumers visiting and buying from garden centres in the last 12 months, 2003-07
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % point change
% % % % % 2003-07
Have visited a garden centre in the 68.5 68.5 66.9 65.6 67.6 -0.9
last 12 months
Have bought from a garden centre 59.4 59.6 58.5 57.6 58.4 -1.0
in the last 12 months
Conversion rate – visitors who 86.7 87.0 87.4 87.8 86.4 -0.3
purchased
SOURCE: BMRB Q1 2008
27
The relatively stagnant nature of visitation is reflected in a more defined decline in spending, as shown in Table
3.2. This compares to increases over the same period for other key leisure expenditure categories such as
eating out, DIY and holidays.
Table 3.2 - Expenditure on Garden Products – 2003-2007

£bn Index
2002 5.65 100
2003 5.89 104
2004 5.41 96
2005 5.18 92
2006 5.15 91
2007 5.14 91
Source: Mintel
Table 3.3: Top ten expenditure priorities, 2007 and 2008

2007 2008 % point change
2007-08
% %
Taking a major foreign holiday 23 23 -
Taking more short breaks 22 22 -
Doing small repair, maintenance or improvement 19 18 -1
(RMI) tasks around the home
Eating and drinking out 20 17 -3
Buying new clothes and shoes 20 15 -5
Improving the garden 17 14 -3
Paying off credit card debt 14 13 -1
Paying off mortgage debt 10 12 +2
Increase savings and investments 12 11 -1
Buying a new or second-hand car 12 10 -2
SOURCE: GfK NOP/Mintel
28
3.1.3 Competition in the Garden Centre Market

Some 26 garden centre businesses within a 10 mile range of Provan Hall have been identified, ranging from
small independent nurseries to national multiples such as B&Q and Dobbies (Tesco). This covers those
operations where information is readily available for consumers to be aware of the offers and locate the
businesses. This does not include the gardening offers that are now becoming a feature of supermarkets, or
indeed those of operations where garden supplies are a small part of their business (visitor attractions, country
park concessions, community group activities, etc.).
Figure 3.1 – Garden Centres in Proximity to Glasgow
11
9
6
10 14 25
1 2
4 19
17
13 23 12
24
18 3
5
26
21
16
7
8 22
20
15
Issues such as the weather and competition from other expenditure alternatives have led to many operators
broadening their appeal to become retail emporiums and visitor attractions rather than simply plant sales
businesses. As mentioned, the entry of supermarkets into the sector - both through direct ownership of garden
centre chains (Tesco/Dobbies) or expanded provision in their stores - will significantly intensify competition. It
will also almost certainly drive down margins in the sector, thus exposing smaller operations further to fluctuations
in demand.
29
3.1.4 Operating Margins of Garden Centres

With increased competition from supermarkets and consolidation in the industry (e.g. Tesco’s purchase of
Dobbies), added to the credit crunch effect on discretionary spend, there is s significant squeeze on the sales and
margins of smaller operators. As shown in Table 3.4 below, small firms work to very tight operating margins
which, in a poor weather year such as 2008, can easily become an operating loss. As an individual, stand alone
retail business within Provan Hall, a small garden centre would almost certainly need to be subsidised by
profitable activity elsewhere within operations.
Table 3.4 - Typical Operating Profit for Main Garden Centre Firms
Business Most Recent Operating Profit
Wyevale 6.9%
Dobbies 10.7%
Klondyke 6.9%
Blue Diamond 4.6%
Country Homes & Gardens 3.4%
Hillier Nurseries 5.3%
Notcutts 1.5%
Squires 9.8%
The Garden & Leisure Group -2.0%
Source: Company Accounts
3.1.5 Where People Buy Garden Products

As shown in Table 3.5, the great majority of people source garden products from DIY chains, supermarkets or
garden centre chains. The specialist garden centre attracts around a quarter of the garden products customer
base.
Table 3.5 Outlets Used for Garden Products in the Last 12 Months – 2006 and 2008
2006 2008
% %
B&Q 40 39
Other specialist garden centre or nursery 25 24
Homebase 20 20
Any supermarket 14 18
Focus DIY 12 11
Wyevale 10 10
Mail order/direct/internet 5 6
Other DIY store 5 5
Dobbies - 5
Other source 6 8
Have not bought any garden products in last 12 months 21 20
Don't know 1 0
None of these 8 6
Source: Mintel, Garden Products Retailing - UK - September 2008
30
3.1.6 Space Required for Garden Sales

Discussions with Colin Barrie of Calders Garden Centres, which have three outlets in the Greater Glasgow area
were very instructive of the spacial needs of a viable operation. It was indicated that 1,000 m2 would needed for
a covered areas plus an additional 1,000m2 for a completely outdoor area. This 2,000m2 would be in addition to
the estimated 1,000m2 required for the visitor centre itself. A footprint of 3,000m2 would not be countenanced,
given that Auchinlea Park has already lost the majority of its original size to the Glasgow Fort development.
It is also the case that such a facility would become more garden centre than visitor centre, thus greatly diverting
from the original intentions of the development.

3.1.7 Security Issues with Outdoor Sales
A key obstacle to outdoor plants sales is the problem of security. Stakeholder discussions and an exploration of
the issues with Colin Barrie of Caulders Garden Centres indicated that it would be difficult to police an outdoors
area.
One solution would be to have the whole plants sales area covered, however given the space needed for a viable
plant sales operation, this would at least double the footprint of the built facilities. As such, this would significantly
impact on both the visual and physical aspects of the park and historic buildings.

3.1.8 Feasibility
It is our view that a dedicated garden centre facility would not be a feasible option, due to a range of issues
including:
• the exposure such operations have to the vagaries of the Scottish weather
• increased competition from large multiples
• a continued squeeze on small operating margins
• spacial needs of a viable operation
• security issues related to outdoor facilities
A scaled down, low maintenance indoor plants sales area that was designed to both fit with the surrounding park
environment and integrate with any indoor retail activity, might be a more realistic prospect.
In addition, Provan Hall could develop some form of garden scheme - for example that allowed the community or
educational groups to participate - that produced some plants and/or vegetables that could sold through a small
concession within the visitor centre. This sort of approach would require a relatively small front end cost
combined with voluntary labour, that would provide a vehicle for renovation and the maintenance of parts of the
grounds; as well a potential income stream through plant/vegetable sales. The garden concession could help
with impulse purchases from those visiting the visitor centre or catering operation. This could be housed within
part of any new build centre that would sit alongside other retail and catering services. This would also help with
the environmental message that is likely to be very much part of underwriting the Provan Hall brand.
There are examples such as guerrilla gardening (www.guerrillagardening.org) of where residents have taken over
neglected patches land and transformed them for the benefit of all.
This approach would also help with animating the garden areas of the sites, as well linking the garden activity
with other facilities in the grounds.
31
4. Catering and Retail Benchmarks
4.1. Inn The Park, St James’ Park
St James Park is part of the wider Royal Parks, an executive agency of the Department for Culture, Media and
Sport (DCMA). Other London parks are The Green Park , Hyde Park, Kensington Gardens, The Regent’s Park
(with Primrose Hill), Greenwich Park, Richmond Park and Bushy Park. Several of these have also undertaken
significant catering projects, including:
o The Pavilion Tea House in Greenwich Park has been fully refurbished and upgraded.
o A new ‘Honest Sausage’ unit was opened in the Regent’s Park Broad Walk.
o The ‘Cow & Coffee Bean’ opened in Regent’s Park.
o A new style outdoor catering unit was created for the Diana, Princess of Wales Memorial Fountain in Hyde
Park.
o The Dell Café in Hyde Park was refurbished.
St James Park itself attracts more than 5 million visitors per year and the demand for catering facilities is
considerable.
Inn the Park opened in 2004, replacing The Cakehouse operation which had been operating since 1970.
Construction took just over one year to complete at an estimated cost of £3.6 million. It is a dedicated catering
facility with no visitor information or major retailing beyond some small magazine sales.
The roof of the building is covered in a 700m2 Bauder Intensive Green Roof System with a grass finish. The
purpose of this was for the building to blend into its surroundings as much as possible, while the design is also
more efficient, with temperature stabilisation and no rainwater guttering and drainage. On aesthetic level, the
concept is that visitors can still experience the park atmosphere while dining or taking refreshments.
The building takes up roughly 500m2 while the seating capacity is 200 – 120 people inside and 80 spaces
outside. The kitchen area and other back of house space takes roughly 40% of the building’s capacity.
The situation of the building is similar to where any new build for Provan Hall might be located; that is, adjacent to
the pond and among some of the park’s trees. Some of the images overleaf, illustrate the outlook onto the pond
from operation’s raised seating area.
32
4.1.1 Catering Management

The management contract is operated by the restaurant group Gruppo, owned by the high profile restaurateur
Oliver Peyton, who recently was part of the panel of judges on the BBC’s Great British Menu.
As part of the contract, the fit out of the interior was undertaken by the caterer at a cost of around £900,000 with a
lease agreement of 15 years. It is thought essential that the caterer is involved in the design of the fit out,
whether or not they are responsible for its cost. In addition, Inn the Park has implemented a high specification for
its toilets.
The Royal Parks receive a proportion of the operation’s turnover, set at 19%. Although turnover figures are not
available, the operation has increased sales by 40% on the previous year. Staffing requirements vary depending
on the time of the year and time of the day, although it has also been acknowledged that the weather has a
significant influence of demand. In general, staffing can vary from around 25-90 people. Around two thirds of
demand is generated in the six Spring/Summer months (generally April to September).
4.1.2 Signage and Information Provision

Signage is provided throughout the park using the Inn the Park logo to distinguish it from other park facilities. The
operation also has its own web site linked to that of the Royal Gardens that provides information on news and
events, a full range of menus, online booking and restaurant gallery.
4.1.3 Catering Offer

There is an extensive range of menus from full a la carte dinner through to a ‘Grab and Go’ option, although they
generally revolve around a core lunch and dinner menu offering similar dishes. The full range of menus are:
Breakfast, Lunch, Saturday Lunch Set Menu, Sunday Lunch Set Menu, High Summer Picnic Hampers Menus,
Summer Set Menu, Terrace Menu, Afternoon Tea, Bar Menu, Dinner Menu, Drinks Menu, Dessert Menu and
Grab and Go. What is on offer changes throughout the day, illustrating that it is possible to change the nature of
such operations. It is open generally all day Mondays to Fridays (8am to 11pm), and on Saturdays and Sundays
9am to 10pm.
33
Some operational issues that require to be overcome relate to

the dual service delivery model, which provides both self-
service and table service. It is sometimes confusing for
customers, especially tourist and first-time visitors, where the
different service areas begin and end.

Magazines available at sales point
34
4.1.4 Information and Signage

Visitor information could be located both in the foyer and in the catering area, similar to that at Wakehurst
Place. Here, there are widescreen monitors providing garden information, news, events, updates, etc. This
would have the added benefit of increasing average length of stay in the catering area, which may impact
positively on sales (particularly in off‐peak times) provide information on the Gardens, wider West End
opportunities for visitors and Glasgow as a whole. The screens could be switched off during peak periods, or
only show limited information so as not to impact on throughput. They could be used in an evening operation
to display creative images that fit with restaurant operation or function theme.

Information screens at Wakehurst Place

Information screens at Kew Gardens, Victoria Gate Cafe
35
4.2. Wakehurst Place, National Trust, East Sussex
Wakehurst Place has been chosen as a benchmark operation as its relatively new visitor centre combines
interpretation, catering and retail facilities (including a garden centre).
The estate is administered and maintained by the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, although the land and historic
buildings are owned by the National Trust. Wakehurst Place receives visitor numbers of around 400,000 per
year.
4.2.1 Location
Wakehurst Place is a 500-acre estate located in a relatively rural part of East Sussex, although it is only 12 miles
from Gatwick Airport and 10 miles from the commuter town of Crawley.
4.2.2 Visitor Centre

The facility covers around 920 square metres of ground space and was built as a result of several considerations:
o To provide high quality support facilities in line with the multi-million pound investment in state-of-the-art
horticultural facilities and internationally important scientific projects
o To meet the expected demand generated from these new attractions
o To meet the need to improve and expand catering, general retail and plant sales to service this
expanded demand.
The building and fit-out cost amounted to just over £2 million and incorporates:
o Admissions
o Interpretation and orientation area
o Seed Café operation (98 seats inside and 48 outside)
o Shop area
o Plant sales area
o Toilets
In addition, the running costs of the building are thought to be around £70,000 per year with £29,000 of that spent
on cleaning.
4.2.3 Catering Offer

Seed Café
The Seed Café takes up roughly one-sixth of the new visitor centre area that also includes the main shop, plant
sales, interpretation and toilets.
The range of food is relatively simple but of a high quality, comprising:
o ‘Fair Trade’ Tea & Coffee (£1.60 - £2.50)

o Fresh juices and other cold drinks (£1.00 - £2.00)
o Soup with bread & butter (price £3.50)
o Sandwiches (with local village baked bread) and wraps (prices around £3.50)
o Hot snacks (£3.00 - £4.00)
36
o Cakes (£1.00 - £2.50)

o Meal packages (soup, bread, cheese & fruit, £6.00)
Their food on offer is proactively sold as using locally produced ingredients and to supporting organic products,
as well using Fair Trade suppliers where possible.
A wide screen television is located within the seating area providing information on the developments at the
estate. This may encourage greater dwell times among visitors, as well providing a positive message on the work
of the Estate.
4.2.4 Catering Management

The catering contract, which runs for five years, is managed by The Company of Cooks, a private contract caterer
based in London. They also manage the catering at several other attractions including Kenwood House in
London, Audley End in Suffolk, and Marble Hill House in Twickenham. The management contract provides
Wakehurst with 17% of the turnover achieved by caterers.
4.2.5 Retail Offer

The new gift shop has a large retail space, taking up the bulk of the visitor centre.
Within this large space, there is the capacity to offer a relatively varied range of retail lines, including:
o Plants, seeds and flowers

o Gardening tools, bird-related items, etc.
o Books – gardening, cookery, home interest, general interest
o Postcards, birthday cards and cards for other occasions
o Children’s item – from pencils & rubbers, through to clothing and novelty garden items
o Clothing
o Perfumery, soaps and pot-pourri
o Quality packaged foods, including local confectionery, preserves and mustards
o Home goods and gift items
There are various National Trust, Kew Gardens and Wakehurst Place branded goods, alongside other brands.
It is thought that plants sales, although contributing 19% to turnover, are a burden on the bottom line as there is
significant wastage. The most profitable and saleable items are small gifts and cards, etc.
4.2.6 Retail Management

The retail outlet is managed by the National Trust which pays a proportion of its turnover to Kew, at around 20%.
37
Entrance and Exit (to grounds)
Child‐themed garden gifts
Outdoor Plants Sales Area
Flexible/Moveable Retail
Open plan catering, CCTV Feed of wildlife
38
5. Visitor Centre Facilities
5.1. Facilities and Services
This section should be read in conjunction with the BDG McColl report. The visitor centre will require multi-
functional capability to meet the needs of a diverse range of users throughout the day, including evening use.
This will be central to the operation being economically viable. However, it also needs to be recognised that the
facility cannot be all things to all people, so that exploration of business model viability has been restricted to the
following suite of services:
• Interpretation that complements that present in the historic buildings

• Catering facility with outlook to Pond, including indoor and outdoor seating
• Flexible retail facility integrated with catering
• Outdoor plant sales areas integrated with indoor retail
• Meetings, Events and Exhibition space
• Educational use (schools, FE, adult education)
• Community usage
• Wedding ceremonies and receptions
• WC and baby-changing facilities
• Back-of-house areas (kitchen, kitchen storage, retail storage, staff room, rubbish area, etc.)
These would be provided in addition to the likely improvements throughout Auchinlea Park, which include:
• conservation and upgrade of historic buildings and courtyard

• development of gardens
• woodland interpretation and trail
• integrate renovation of pond
• signage and interpretation throughout the Park that directs visitor to facilities
• refurbish access and improve signage around site periphery
5.1.1 Volunteer and Community Input

Consultations to date have included a wide variety of interest groups, but perhaps most importantly the Friends of
Provan Hall. In a highly competitive visitor attractions sector and wider competition for leisure time, the Friends
of Provan Hall will be crucial in helping the facility operate as a viable concern.
• Inclusion in the design, scope and content of interpretation

• Key facilitators in the provision of interpretation and community services
• Complement (but not compensate for) the work of salaried staff in catering, retail and functions/events
• Access where appropriate to visitor centre facilities for use by Friends of Provan Hall in their voluntary
work
39
5.1.2 From Local Amenity to Day Visitor Destination

The introduction of services that will aim to provide visitors with a more complete range of ‘day out’ components
at Auchinlea Park and Provan Hall. These should encompass the following experiences:
o Things to do – walking, nature experiences, cultural experiences, etc.

o Somewhere to meet
o Somewhere to rest/shelter
o Somewhere to eat/replenish oneself
o Somewhere to shop
This will transform Provan Hall and Auchinlea Park from the profile of local amenities to a day visitor destination.
It can potentially convert park users from the traditional 20-minute ‘walking the dog’ or ‘breath of fresh air’
mentality to utilising the facilities for meeting people, reading, taking lunch and so on.
5.1.3 Embedded Flexibility

Crucial to any development will be to provide significant scope in the longer term for Provan Hall to add to or
diversify its services, so that it can continually renew its offer. Unlike the other alternatives explored, the new
build option allows for this to be embedded in the business model. The development of a visitor centre with this
flexibility embedded in its design will help sustain the visitor number projection estimated above.
5.1.4 Converting Visitor to Spenders

Although entry would remain free, the new build business model has at its core revenue streams that are both
related to the historical proposition of Provan Hall but can also target wider audiences.
The restrictions imposed on retail, café, plant sales and groups sales in the alternative options is somewhat lifted
in respect of this new build model. Indeed, the visitor centre would allow for expanded range of revenue streams
that could include celebratory receptions (weddings, birthdays, etc.) and events hosting. This would begin to
seriously address the issue of achieving a non-subsidy position.
5.1.5 Attracting Glasgow Fort Users

The visibility of Provan Hall and the park will be central to the viability of the visitor centre, no more so than to
Glasgow Fort users. The provision of dedicated signage and car parking close to the Fort’s entry points – as
indicated in BDG McColl designs - will be essential developments.
In addition, the visibility of the visitor centre itself will be very important, particularly the bright open aspect of the
café looking onto the loch. In fact, there may be a case for including the café’s name in the signage. For
example, Auchinlea Park and Pond Café or Loch Café would provide an immediate indication of the offer. If this
is combined with clear views of the facility, then a good proportion of Fort visitors will have their interest peaked.
It could act as an antidote to the high street shopping and catering experience on offer in the shopping complex.
We have estimated that around one in two thousand of the 12 million visitors to the Fort might make a visit. This
equates to some 6,000 visits per year. We feel this is a conservative estimate and, with the support of Glasgow
Fort management in marketing Provan Hall to its customers, there is the potential to greatly increase the number
of visitors from this source.
40
What is important within this estimation is that most visitors to the Fort are repeat customers, therefore the
Provan Hall operation must provide an offer that makes visitors want to regularly combine a visit to the Fort with a
visit to the attraction. If this is not achieved, then visits from this source will tail off in the medium to long term.
The areas of the attraction that are most likely to encourage Fort customers to combine a visit are in catering,
retail and events. The heritage interpretation offer is more likely to be a one-off proposition to most people using
the Fort, whereas these other services have a stronger connection with the primary purpose of the Fort
customer’s visit; shopping and eating out.
41
6. Business Model Viability
6.1. Visitor Number Projections
Market analysis in Section 2.0 indicated that the new build facility, as part of an urban park offer, could
reasonably attract around 50,000 visitors per year. As shown in Figure 6.1 below, this would consist mainly of
local residents and day visitors. Indeed, much of the meetings, exhibitions and events market, weddings and
community use would also mainly come from the local population.
Figure 6.1 – Distribution of Visitor Markets

Business projections have been calculated on the basis of this 50,000 visitor figure. As mentioned earlier, visitor
numbers estimates have erred on the conservative side; with potential for greater numbers from the Glasgow Fort
customers and general users of Auchinlea Park. In the latter case, it should be reiterated that a proper visitor
survey of park use would provide a more accurate indication of the number of people using the park.
6.2. Revenue Sources
The opportunities to generate income would be:
o Donations
o Catering
o Retail and plants sales
o Educational market
o Corporate and events use
o Wedding ceremonies
o Wedding Receptions
o Venue Hire
42
The main revenue sources are shown in Table 6.1 below based on a visitor figure estimate of 50,000.
Table 6.1 – Value of Revenue Streams

Revenue Cost of Sales Gross Profit
Admission/Donation £9,000 £450 £8,550
Day Catering £69,000 £24,150 £44,850
Evening Catering £10,350 £3,623 £6,728
Retail £98,000 £49,000 £49,000
Education (Schools) £6,250 £3,750 £2,500
Meetings, Events & Exhibitions £75,000 £18,750 £56,250
Wedding ceremonies £7,000 £1,750 £5,250
Wedding receptions £12,500 £5,000 £7,500
Community Use £20,000 £4,000 £16,000
Total £307,100 £110,473 £196,628
Figure 6.2 – Distribution of Revenue Streams
6.2.1 Admissions Revenue/Donations

Although we have indicated that the market context is such that the operation ought to be free to enter, there is
some scope to ask for donations from visitors to help with the ongoing maintenance and conservation of the
historic buildings and grounds. We have taken the average donation per visitor figure for Greater Glasgow
(£0.18) as an indication of what income could be achieved; at 50,000 visitors this equates to £9,000. Some
events and campaign activity would incur costs, which we have estimated at 5%. Thus, the overall gross income
from donations would be £8,550.
43
6.2.2 Day Catering Revenue

The average spend on catering in the Greater Glasgow area is £1.15. This is a per visitor spend figure that
applies a spend value to all visitors to an attraction, when in reality less than 50% of visitors will use these
facilities. At 50,000 visitors this would generate revenue of £57,500. We feel this is a conservative estimate as
we are using a standard measure for Glasgow attractions (i.e. Visitor Attraction Monitor figures) across all
revenue streams. If the visitor centre can become a true community destination for locals and the café becomes
an iconic place to meet, then there will likely be significantly more visitor numbers attributable to the café alone
(rather than visitors attracted by the heritage of Provan Hall). We have therefore assumed an additional 20% to
catering revenue from day operations, which equates to a total of £69,000. If one used the average spend for
relevant attraction categories such as visitor centres (£1.48) or parks (£2.70), then this would perhaps provide a
more accurate reflection than using the all encompassing Greater Glasgow figure.
6.2.3 Evening Catering Revenue

During the summer months, there may be the potential to extend the opening hours of the café to take advantage
of longer daylight time. A reduced menu of hot and cold drinks and snacks would allow for minimal staffing, while
still offering a service into the evening. An additional two to three hours per day over the period June-September
could perhaps contribute a further 15% to day catering revenue, or up to £10,350. This figure would perhaps
only cover costs, but it would add to the offer and contribute to fixed costs.

6.2.4 Mainstream Retail and Plant Sales Revenue
From visitor numbers of 50,000 and average spend for the Greater Glasgow area of £1.96, this would produce a
maximum revenue of £98,000. Assuming a 50% costs of sales, gross income would be £49,000.
Input from Glasgow Fort would invaluable in designing the retail offer, so that it compliments rather compotes with
what is available in shopping complex. For example, a plants sales area has been given positive feedback from
Glasgow Fort management, but it has been agreed that this would need to be scaled back for reasons related to
security, conservation and space constraints. Other merchandising could relate to stakeholder organisations
such as National Trust for Scotland, Glasgow City Council (e.g. Glasgow Flowers), community groups and
individuals (e.g. honey products).
6.2.5 Schools Revenue

We have estimated that the education market would account for around 5% of all visitors; at the 50,000 visitor
total this equates to 2,500 children.
We feel that additional services to those within the historic buildings would allow Provan Hall to offer a more
bespoke and varied product to the educational market, so that a fee of £2.50 per child could reasonably be
charged. This would bring Provan Hall in at the market mid-point. This would generate revenue of £6,250. We
estimate that it costs around £1.50 per child to run the education service, so cost of sales would be £3,750. This
produces a gross profit of around £2,500.
6.2.6 Meetings, Exhibitions and Events Revenue

Provan Hall could become a venue fixture in the cultural events programme of both the East End and wider
Glasgow area. If managed properly, this will complement existing provision in Easterhouse as well as allow
Provan Hall to become a venue that can be incorporated into the event programme of the city of Glasgow as a
whole. The access to significant parking at Glasgow Fort, allied to the pond outlook and wider park greenspace
would make for an attractive venue for event organisers.
44
If this were to be realised, demand from this source would reasonably account for around 20% of all visitors; or
10,000 people. We have assumed a relatively small day delegate rate/ticket fee of £7.50 (net of any catering or
retail spend), which produces revenue of some £75,000. We feel this figure could easily be boosted through the
activity of a pro-active Commercial Manager and co-ordination of other staff and volunteer groups. We have
applied a cost of sales of 25% to take account of provision of materials and equipment hire, thus gross profit
would be in the region of £56,250.
There is likely to be a significant staffing cost on these activities as they would occur throughout the day and
evening, as well as in some cases requiring additional staff for activities such as ticket collection, ushering, WC
checking and security.
6.2.7 Wedding Revenue

If the new build facilities incorporate the ability to service wedding receptions as well as wedding ceremonies, an
additional income stream will be created from this market. Of the 20 or so ceremonies/photo sessions that
Provan Hall attracts each year, we have assumed that half of these would include a reception. Thus there will be
income from 20 ceremonies/photo sessions (at £350 per event) and 10 receptions (at £25 per person).
Average party size: 50 guests

Wedding Ceremony Revenue: £350 per ceremony at 20 ceremonies = £7,000
Food and drink with meal: £25 per guests at 50 guests at 10 receptions = £12,500
Therefore, total wedding revenue is estimated to be in the region of £19,500. (This does not include income
from sale of alcohol beyond those drinks provided with the reception meal).
6.2.8 Community Use

Flexibility in design will also provide the opportunity for the visitor centre to become an evening venue for
community groups and social events. Although such a service may be provided at a discount or even free to
some groups, this will have to be subsidised by the local public sector. It is difficult to see how the operation
could provide such a community service without this being recognised by the appropriate public organisations
that have responsibility in this area.
We have put a conservative figure of £20,000 in revenue for venue hire,
45
6.3. Operating Costs
6.3.1 Staffing
Employee costs to service this range of activities would account for most of the gross profit margin, as the
operation would need to create a range of full time positions, including:
Payroll
1 x Commercial Manager (1FTE) £30,000
1 x Chef/cook (1 FTE) £25,000
1 x Kitchen assistant (1 FTE) £16,500
4 x Part-time Catering/Shop assistants staff (2 FTE) £30,000
1 x Cleaning Staff (0.5 FTE) £7,500
£109,000
We have included a further £40,000 to staff costs to take account of servicing weddings, meetings, events and
other functions business. This produces an overall staff cost of £149,000.
Staff costs are typically one-quarter to one-third of turnover depending on the type of operation and level of
service provided. At present, staff cost estimates represent 48% of turnover, therefore either revenue would
need to be boosted significantly (to circa £450-500,000) or staff costs would need to be cut by around £50,000.
As we have indicated costs based on a minimum staff compliment, the latter option is not possible unless a
significant amount of work is undertaken by volunteer staff from the Friends of Provan Hall. Although we believe
that the volunteers will provide enthusiastic support of operations, they cannot be asked to undertake a level of
work that would be on a par with paid employees.
As mentioned, our revenue figures are based on conservative projections therefore there is potential to achieve a
higher sales target. Again, without accurate information on park use and the unknown quantity that is Glasgow
Fort, it is difficult to ascertain what level of revenue could reasonably be achieved beyond our cautious estimates.
6.3.2 Building Maintenance

We have assumed a charge of 2% of sales, which we feel reflects the significant use that will be made of the
building throughout the day and evening. £6,000.
We have assumed that most external building maintenance of the new build facility would be the responsibility of
Glasgow City Council. Indoor areas that may come under management by the contracted business are catering
and retail areas, while function and exhibition spaces may be better maintained by the City Council.
6.3.3 Change and Renewal of Foyer and Exhibition Displays

Our recommendation is that the visitor centre should not be overly reliant on interactive interpretation. Less
interactive attractions incur renewal costs below that of high IT led operations, which can have a per square
metre cost of £15 per annum and above. We have assumed a cost of around £5 per square metre (that is,
between £4-6 normally spent by the average museum) and taking up roughly half of the 400m2 of the space
attributable to exhibition areas. This will generate annual costs of around £1,000.
46
6.3.4 Catering essentials and repairs

Maintenance and renewal of catering equipment and service items (china, glassware, utensils, table covering,
etc.), as well payment of licenses and staff uniforms have been included in this cost. These are generally semi-
variable costs that will rise or fall at slower rate relative to demand changes. We have assumed a cost of 4% of
catering and wedding reception sales (c. £92,000); therefore £3,700.
6.3.5 Utilities (Heat, light and power, etc.)

Heat, light and fuel costs will be determined by the level of demand, as well as the design of the building and
interpretation. The predominant use of glass frontage may add to heating costs, although these may be offset to
some extent by lower lighting costs due to natural light sources. We have charged 2.5% of sales to this cost
category, which equates to around £7,500.
6.3.6 Rates
It is unclear at this stage how rates would be charged on this new building.
6.3.7 Insurance
Insurance costs would be subject to many variables such as the nature of the building (age, condition, etc.) and
the type and value of displays. We have provided an indicative figure of £10,000 at present.
6.3.8 Cleaning
Typical cleaning costs for an attraction can range from £5 - £7 per square metre for visitor areas depending on
the demand, design and nature of use of the building and displays. However, a higher than normal use is likely to
be made of the building as it will be used day and night. Also, the large use of glass in the building design will
require the external glass walls to be cleaned on a regular basis. Cleaning costs are semi-variable in nature, with
a minim cleaning requirement no matter the level of demand. Around 80% of the building’s 1,000m2 footprint will
be accessible, therefore we have assumed a cost of £7,000 x 80%, which equates to £5,600.
6.3.9 Administration
Administration costs (office supplies, telephone/fax, postage, etc.) are assumed as almost fixed in relation to
demand and have been set at £2,000.
6.3.10 Marketing
As a mainly local facility, marketing activity should be derived primarily from word of mouth selling. However,
areas such as garden sales and promoting new activities and events in the park and buildings throughout the
year will require wider marketing. Therefore, we have assumed that a charge of 1% of turnover will be applied to
take account of this. (£3,000)
There has been some discussion as to what the new range of facilities should be called. This would be a good
marketing opportunity to raise the profile among the local population, by orchestrating a campaign to name the
new facilities. Prior to opening, the Friends of Provan Hall could be tasked with this campaign; something that
would generate a good level of debate among locals and thus create a lot of free press and PR coverage.
47
6.4. Revenue Projections

Consideration of the revenue and cost projections indicated above provides an overall operating profit of £6,828.
We must stress that we have erred on the side of caution regarding the likely visitor numbers; if the facilities are
sold as a park offer and are part of a co-ordinated effort with the Glasgow Fort and local community
organisations, then visitor numbers could be somewhat greater.
Table 6.2 – Financial Projections at 50,000 Visitors

Revenue:
Donations 9,000
Catering 69,000
Evening Catering 10,350
Retail 98,000
Education 6,250
Meetings & Events 75,000
Wedding 7,000
Wedding reception 12,500
Community Use 20,000
Total sales 307,100
Cost of Sales 110,473
Gross Profit 196,628
Other Costs:
Staff Costs 149,000
Maintenance Costs 6,000
Interpretation renewal 1,000
Catering essentials 3,700
Utilities 7,500
Insurance 10,000
Cleaning 5,600
Administration 2,000
Marketing 5,000
Total Costs 189,800
Operating Profit/Loss 6,828
48

6.5. Sensitivity Analysis
Table 6.3 shows the sensitivity of revenue and costs to a change in visitor numbers. In general, this shows that
the operation would break-even at around 45-46,000 visitors. It should be noted that the figures are only
indicative of likely movements in sales and costs, and may not necessarily move exactly as illustrated. We have
treated some costs such as marketing expenditure as remaining fixed, while some are shown as variable (e.g.
some catering supplies) others as semi-variable (e.g. staff costs).
It also highlights that an accurate estimate is required of visitor numbers in order to fully make the business case
for the visitor centre. At 50,000 visitors the operation would not achieve the return expected by prospective
contractors.
Table 6.3 – Sensitivity Analysis at Selected Visitors Numbers

at 50,000 at 45,000 at 40,000 at 60,000
Revenue:
Donations 9,000 8,100 7,200 10,800
Catering 69,000 62,100 55,200 82,800
Evening Catering 10,350 9,315 8,280 12,420
Retail 98,000 88,200 78,400 117,600
Education 6,250 5,625 5,000 7,500
Meetings & Events 75,000 67,500 60,000 90,000
Wedding 7,000 7,000 7,000 8,400
Wedding reception 12,500 12,500 12,500 15,000
Community Use 20,000 18,000 16,000 24,000
Total sales 307,100 276,390 245,680 368,520
Cost of Sales 110,473 99,425 88,378 132,567
Gross Profit 196,628 176,965 157,302 235,953
Other Costs:
Staff Costs 149,000 141,550 138,570 151,980
Maintenance Costs 6,000 5,760 5,640 6,300
Interpretation renewal 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Catering essentials 3,700 3,330 3,256 3,885
Utilities 7,500 7,125 6,975 7,875
Insurance 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Cleaning 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600
Administration 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Marketing 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Total Costs
189,800 181,365 178,041 193,640
Operating Profit/Loss 6,828 -4,400 -20,739 42,313
49
6.6. Operational Governance
6.6.1 Fee Structure

At present, the financial projections indicate that the operation would barely break-even at the visitor number
estimate of 50,000. At 60,000 visitors, the operation is closer to an operating profit (£42,313 or nearly 12% of
revenue) that may be attractive to a prospective entrepreneur. Generally, a figure of around12%-14% operating
profit would be expected on the likes of catering operations.
Under a fixed payment agreement, Provan Hall could take a flat fee from the operator each year that would go
towards the upkeep of the historic buildings. However, at the present estimate of 50,000 visitors per year, the
business projections indicate that any reasonable fee paid by the operator would perhaps put them in a loss
making position. As such, it is imperative that accurate visitor numbers for Auchinlea Park are generated.
6.6.2 Business Unit Access

It will be essential to attract an operator who is willing to provide the services envisaged throughout the day and
evening periods. It was decided that providing different operators for separate aspect of the business would lead
to significant problems across responsibilities such as staffing, cleaning, health & safety, maintenance and
security.
As such, the preferred operator would for example need to be willing to combine day café and shop operations
with evening events and weddings receptions.
6.7. Procurement of Contractor
The brief used to attract and evaluate the best contractor should cover at least the following areas:
6.7.1 Commencement of contract, contract period and termination requirements
Stipulating that contract may be terminated at any time by either party on the giving and receiving of an agreed
period of notice (e.g. three months notice in writing). Contract will also be extended at the option of GCC at the
expiry of the original contract period.
6.7.2 Contribution to Fit-out and Maintenance Responsibilities

The selected operator will be given full access to internal design and fit out of the facilities. Additionally, they will
provide some investment into the fit out of facilities.
Details of any investment and design proposals will be subject to approval by GCC.
6.7.3 Finance
Identification of contractor responsibilities regarding revenue generation and cost management associated with
the operation’s profit centres: catering, retail, weddings, functions, meetings, etc.
Details regarding return to GCC for reinvestment in Provan Hall, likely to be based on a proportion of contractor’s
income or a specified fixed fee and proportion of income.
50
In support of renegotiation of contracts, the contractor will be required to provide accurate reporting statements
related to:
• numbers of visitors served;

• average spend per person
• special functions;
• sales per day/ week.
• trading accounts to be submitted monthly/quarterly
6.7.4 Financial Audit

A full audit of the operations should be conducted on an annual basis and conducted by a nominated auditor
appointed by GCC.
6.7.5 Service Provision

Minimum service provisional the outlets listed above:
• Hot and cold foods available throughout opening times

• Contemporary food offers and quality beverages
• All meals produced should incorporate healthy options, vegetarian and organic, children portions/
options and use fresh, local produce keeping frozen items to a minimum
• Retail and catering provision should attempt to accommodate the wide variety of customer base
anticipated
• All designs of menus, facilities, suggestions and promotional materials to be agreed by GCC prior to roll
out
• GCC reserve the right to monitor and where necessary veto any elements of design
• Contractor will be expected to work with GCC and Friends of Provan Hall on planned marketing and
promotional events which form a major part of the operational calendar.
The following services will be required outwith normal opening hours:
• Weddings, other functions and corporate hospitality services

• Pre-booked evening catering
• Special alcoholic beverage license for functions, exhibitions and events.
• Artists/Performers hospitality in exhibition/changing areas.
6.7.6 Maintenance and Management of Equipment Servicing and Guarantees

Emphasise responsibility of contractor to maintain all equipment in good condition and to manage all servicing
and guarantee elements. On expiration of initial guarantee/service agreements for kitchen equipment, further
service, maintenance and repairs become the responsibility of the successful contractor.
6.7.7 Staffing
The successful catering company will ensure that there are appropriate levels of staff in employment to provide
full and appropriate levels of service throughout the year All tenders submitted should contain a proposed
staffing structure / organisational chart showing numbers and indicating skill/competence levels.
51
Terms and Conditions
All tenders submitted should contain the following information:
Proposals for covering holiday (s)

Proposals for covering sickness and holidays
Basic scales of payment on offer for grades of staff envisaged in the operation
A copy of normal contractual terms and conditions of employment.
Health, Safety and Fire

Contractor will carry out all duties and services in accordance with appropriate health and safety legislation
pertaining to such catering services.
Training
It is anticipated that the successful catering company will comply with all appropriate legislation in respect of the
training and development of catering staff. Accordingly suitable provision of appropriately trained first aid staff
should be present throughout periods of operation in accordance with relevant legislation.
Uniforms and Appearance

All catering staff must be supplied with the correct protective clothing to meet relevant legislative requirements,
including Health and Safety at Work Act 1974, the Food Safety Act 1990, and the Food Safety (general food
hygiene) Regulations 1995. This clothing must be maintained in a whole and clean condition at all times. Such
uniforms to be supplied by the contractor and to be agreed with GCC.
6.7.8 Cleaning and Refuse Disposal

Refuse must be removed by the contractor from the catering facility to the refuse collection area. It is stressed
that all refuse must be suitably packed and the caterer must ensure that an efficient and hygienic system is in
operation at all times.
6.7.9 Music/Ambience
The music policy, quality and variety will be determined by contractor and agreed with GCC.
6.7.10 Information Provision

All information and interpretation displayed in visitor areas to be at the discretion of GCC/NTS. The caterer would
be responsible in consultation with GCC for the provision of all license requirements related to
music/entertainments in catering areas.
6.7.11 Systems Provision

The tender must include information on the following system areas:
• Purchasing
• Stock control
• Accounting
• Forward budgeting
• Pricing
52
6.7.12 Compliance with Legislation
The tender should stipulate requirement to comply with all relevant equal opportunities legislation including the
Sex Discrimination Act 1974, Disability Discrimination Act 1995, the Race Relations Act 1996, together with any
other relevant legal requirement relating to employment and the provision of catering services.
6.7.13 Insurance
Tender should stipulate production of written evidence at the time of tendering that they hold adequate
insurances in respect of:
• Employers liability
• Public liability
6.7.14 Financial Check

A financial check should be carried out on the successful contractor prior to commencement of the contract.
6.7.15 Security
Stipulate necessary steps to maintain the security of the premises, stocks, cash, and tills, etc.
6.7.16 Licenses
Appropriate trading and environmental licences/appraisals to be acquired and copies deposited with GCC.
6.7.17 Deliveries
Appropriate arrangements should be stipulated for catering and retail deliveries, based on outcome of design and
access discussions.
6.7.18 GCC Responsibilities

GCC responsibilities regarding the building and its operation should be stipulated. An audit of facilities and
furnishings prior to commencement of contract should be undertaken. This should be conducted by both parties
and will be signed off prior to commencement of contract. A similar audit should be conducted prior to cessation
of the contract.
53
7. Conclusions and Recommendations

7.1. Entry to a Competitive Market
The market analysis indicated that any new visitor centre would be entering a highly competitive market that has
exhibited a relatively static movement in visitor numbers over the last five years. Moving forward, we expect
visitor numbers in the medium term to be dampened by the poor economic outlook for the country.
Glasgow has a significant number of historically important houses, museums and galleries, so that it will be
difficult for Provan Hall to enter the market simply on the basis of it historical significance.
7.2. Visitor Numbers and Financial Projections are conservative estimates
Business projections have been calculated on the basis of a 50,000 visitor figure. As mentioned earlier, visitor
numbers estimates have erred on the conservative side; with potential for greater numbers from the Glasgow Fort
customers and general users of Auchinlea Park. In the latter case, it should be reiterated that a proper visitor
survey of park use would provide a more accurate indication of the number of people using the park.
7.3. Selling a Park Offer
It has been highlighted that in order to attract sufficient numbers to the operation to make it financially self-
sustaining, we feel that the facilities need to be sold through an urban park offer with well serviced facilities rather
than a stand-alone heritage/historic house offer. Any development should therefore seek to maximise the
physical and cultural linkages between casual park use and access to buildings, services and other activities.
The higher visitation within parks will provide greater opportunities for visitor spend, such as:
• impulse buys or casual purchases such as hot & cold drinks, snacks, newspaper vending
• seasonal and one-off events
• targeted social and leisure provision – e.g. farmers markets, children’s parties, etc.
• targeted educational provision

7.4. Flexible Space
The visitor centre as a multi-functional will be the key to its viability. The different users indicated for the visitor
centre and their estimated expenditure highlight that all these markets will be required to make the operation a
financial success.
Complimentary to this is the design of the building that will allow the same space to be used for different
purposes, as well some areas having the ability to be expanded. In particular, the café area’s capacity of 50 may
need to be expanded into the retail area or function area for group events , or if the operation was a significant
success beyond the 50,000 visitor numbers estimate.
54
7.5. Use Dominated by Local Population
Most visitor attractions rely heavily on Local Resident and Day Tripper markets, particularly where the attraction
has a low profile or the offer is centred on local or narrow themes. Provan Hall at present provides such a narrow
theme, but has the potential to have a mixture of themes including its location within a park, its historic house
status, gardens and potentially a visitor centre. Regardless of any reasonable level of redevelopment, we would
still expect local demand from social, leisure and education sources to be critical to the success of the venture.

7.6. Need for Visitor Count Survey
It has been reiterated several time throughout this document that an accurate estimate of visitor numbers to
Auchinlea Park is essential to determining the latent demand for the services at the visitor centre. This should be
undertaken by an independent body, so that there is sufficient objectivity in the data gathering and analysis. This
should be undertaken before any final decision is taken on the funding of the visitor centre.
7.7. Fort visitors will be crucial to business
In addition to the survey of park use, it may be advisable to undertake some market research targeted at Glasgow
Fort customers. This could be done in co-ordination with Glasgow Fort or indeed could be part of the Fort’s own
research of its customers. Management of the Fort has shown a willingness to co-operate with Provan Hall and
GCC, therefore it is likely that this is something that can be easily developed.
We have indicated a very conservative projection of visitors from Glasgow Fort. Better visibility of Provan Hall,
the visitor centre and wider park will add significantly to the viability of the operation as a profit making entity.
That is why dedicated signage and car parking close to the Fort’s entry points – as indicated in BDG McColl
designs - will be essential developments.
What is also important within is that most visitors to the Fort are repeat customers, therefore the Provan Hall
operation must provide an offer that makes visitors want to regularly combine a visit to the Fort with a visit to the
attraction. The areas of the attraction that are most likely to encourage Fort customers to combine a visit are in
catering, retail and events. The heritage interpretation offer is more likely to be a one-off proposition to most
people using the Fort, whereas these other services have a stronger connection with the primary purpose of the
Fort customer’s visit; shopping and eating out.
7.8. Branding the Attraction
Inclusion of the community in the renaming of the visitor facilities that may exist upon redevelopment and
renovation will significantly raise the profile of the new attraction. Friends of Provan Hall would be the ideal
vehicle through which to conduct this campaign, so that a good natured debate among locals can be created and
ownership of the brand is within the community.
There should also be some directing of responses to such a campaign, so that some of the revenue generating
facilities are included in the final name of the attraction. For example, Auchinlea Park and Pond Café or Loch
Café would provide an immediate indication of the offer to Glasgow Fort users or people driving past on the M8.
If this is combined with clear views of the facility, then a good proportion of such potential visitors will have their
interest peaked.
55
7.9. Friends of Provan Hall time remains crucial
Business projections to date indicate that the voluntary human resource that is provided by the Friends of Provan
Hall will be essential to the viability of the proposed business model. They will continue to have prime
responsibility for interpretation and storytelling; therefore they will have significant interaction with many of the
attraction’s visitors. As such, there will need to be effective communication between the commercial operator and
the Friends. It will need to be stipulated in any contract that the contractor will be expected to work with GCC
and Friends of Provan Hall in planning operations and marketing.
7.10. Type of Operation
We believe that main operations within the visitor centre should incorporate an informal café/retail experience and
signposting of the heritage offer of Provan Hall. In the first instance, the café menu should have a limited choice
that includes high quality coffee/tea, sandwiches, pastries/desserts and one or two freshly prepared hot food
items. We feel the café should be an antidote to the high street, pre-packaged food that is available in the
Glasgow Fort and wider Easterhouse area. Staffing levels have also determined that it would be difficult to offer
anything other than a limited menu.
7.11. Value to Prospective Contractor
We have identified eight main income streams for the caterer:
o Donations
o Catering
o Retail and plants sales
o Educational market
o Corporate and events use
o Wedding ceremonies
o Wedding Receptions
o Venue Hire
We have estimated that this would generate £307,100 based on a conservative estimate of 50,000 visitors.
Donations would most likely go directly to Friends of Provan Hall, therefore the value to the contractor would be
just under £300,000.
We feel that this would not achieve the return expected by prospective contractors, which is why it is essential to
generate a more accurate picture of visitor numbers to Auchinlea Park.
56

Moffat Centre Provan Hall New Build Business Case

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Moffat Centre Provan Hall New Build Business Case

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Feasibility Analysis

for a New Build Visitor Centre

2. Market Analysis ........................................................................................................... 5

3. Garden Centre Feasibility ........................................................................................... 27

4. Catering and Retail Benchmarks ................................................................................. 32

4.1.2 Signage and Information Provision .................................................................................................. 33

5. Visitor Centre Facilities .............................................................................................. 39

6. Business Model Viability ............................................................................................ 42

6.7. Procurement of Contractor ....................................................................................................................... 50

7. Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................... 54

1.1. Aims and Objectives

The objectives of the feasibility exercise are to:

1.2. Business Model

• Interpretation that complements that present in the historic buildings

• conservation and upgrade of historic buildings and courtyard

2.2. The Visitor Attraction Sector

2.2.1 Actual Demand

Table 2.1 – Visits to Selected Attractions by Category, 2003-2007

Table 2.2 – Visits to Selected Attractions by Category, 2007

Figure 2.1 – Visits to Selected Attractions by Category, 2007

Owner Attraction 2007 2006 %07/06 F S Cat.

Table 2.4 – Sample Visits to Attractions 2008

Table 2.5 – Comparison of Visits to Attractions, 2007 and 2008

2.3. Profile of Visitors to Attractions

Table 2.6 – Origin of Visitors to Attractions, 2007

Table 2.7 - Distance Travelled by Day Visitors to Town Destinations in Scotland

Figure 2.2 – Average 17.6 mile Day Visitor Catchment Area

2.3.1 Importance of Children in Visit Decisions

Table 2.8 – Visits by Adults and Children

Table 2.9 – Day Visit Activities in Town Destinations

2.4. Educational Market

Table 2.10 – School Visits to Attractions

2.5. Glasgow Fort as a Market

Table 2.11 - Frequency of use of major shopping centres, December 1999

Have not visited in last 12 months 8

* less than 0.5%

2.6. Clydebuilt at Breahead, Renfrewshire

2007 2006 %07/06

Table 4.3 – Visitors to the Museum of the Great Western Railway

• The Heritage Lottery Fund

2.7.3 Visitor Types

Days Visitors UK Tourists Overseas Visitors

2.7.4 Revenue Sources

Admission Catering Retail

Like Braehead, information on the Designer

As shown below, the Lowry Centre and IWMN are incorporated

2.9. Seasonality of Demand

Figure 2.3 – Seasonality of Visits to Attractions

2.10.1 Average Spend

Table 2.11 – Average Spend at Selected Visitor Attractions

Table 2.12 – Expenditure on a Day Out, 2004-2006

2.10.2 Dwell Time and Its Impact on Spending

Table 2.13 – Average Dwell Time at Selected Visitor Attractions

Table 2.14 – Average Dwell Time at Retail and Catering

2.11. The Wedding Market

Arta Menzies Glasgow Hotel The Bothy

2.11.3 Timing and Access

• Earliest ceremonies - late afternoon

The options open to Provan Hall in terms of facilities are:

3. Ceremony and Reception

• Ceremony held in grounds adjacent to buildings and pond

Glasgow City Council operates its own wedding arrangement service

3. Garden Centre Feasibility