Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Global Level
Maximo Torero
m.torero@cgiar.org
IFA International Fertilizer Conference 2015
Restoring Competition to the EU Fertilizer Market
April 30th, The Heritage, Killenard
Growing
Human Pressure
Climate change Ecosystem
decline
Surprise
Source: Johan Rockstrom: Let the environment guide our
development
Growing
Growing Income
Population
Increase
Demand
for Food
Sustainable Agricultural
Intensification (SAI)
Growing Demand
• Increase in yield
• Increase in area
• Extension of
Increased cropland
production
• Reduction of other
crops
Additional Food Demand
New Reduced
Additional Bioenergy Demand • Hunger?
Demand for supply for
Additional industrial food final
• Substitution effects
Biomass Demand consumers
• Feed
Reduced
supply for • Other sectors
intermediate (agrifood,
consumers cosmetics)
• Substitution effects
Page 4
The Fertilizer market
LITTLE Highly concentrated;
Global Producers Market power exertion?
ATTENTION
• High prices may not only be the result of several supply‐ and demand‐side
constraints at the regional and local level.
• Low‐income regions are highly dependent on imported fertilizer and import
(international) prices still represent a large fraction of the final price paid by
farmers.
Real Monthly Ammonia, Urea and Crude Oil prices
480 2.5
420
2.0
360
300
240
180 1.0
120
0.5
60
0 0.0
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Note: Prices deflated by CPI, 1982-84=100. The prices correspond to Ammonia US Gulf barge and Urea US Gulf prill
import from Green Markets, No. 2 yellow corn FOB US Gulf from FAOSTAT Online database, and Oklahoma crude oil
FOB spot price from the Energy Information Administration.
High Dependence of Developing Regions on Imported
Fertilizer (as a percentage of consumption)
Note: Data on fertilizer nutrient consumption and imports obtained from the FAOSTAT Online database. 7
Fertilizer Consumption from the Main Consuming
Regions
EU Main Importers by Fertilizer Type
• Urea: Yara and Helm importing from Algeria and Egypt
• Potash: Israel Chemicals Ltd. (mines in Dead Sea and U.K.).
• DAP: FertIberia importing from OCP in Morocco. OCP also conducts
its own imports for sale in small lots
• UAN: KeyTrade on behalf of CF Industries
• NPK: BUNN Inc., a subsidiary of Koch Industries, handles their
distribution in the U.K.
Source: Argus Media
Distribution of the global production of fertilizers
50%
by macronutrient and region since 2002
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
East and North East Europe South Asia West and West Asia Latin America Non Sub‐ Oceania Sub‐Saharan
Southeast America and Central Central (Middle East) Saharan Africa
Asia Asia Europe Africa
Note: Based on capacity of operative plants in 2008‐09 according to IFDC Worldwide Fertilizer Capacity Listings by Plant.
Market Structure of the Fertilizer Industry
Top‐5 Top‐5
Fertilizer Top‐5 countries Capacity Share
(% of World in parenthesis) (000 MT) (% of World)
Ammonia China (22.8), India (8.9), Russia (8.5), 84,183 50.6
United States (6.5), and Indonesia (3.9)
Urea China (33.1), India (13.1), Indonesia (5.4) 95,802 59.9
Russia (4.2), and United States (4.1)
DAP/MAP China (23.3), United States (21.2), India (11.4), 22,896 65.9
Russia (6), and Morocco (4)
United States (20.9), China (19.3), Morocco
Phosphoric Acid (9.6), 28,274 61.3
Russia (6.2), and India (5.3)
Potash Canada (37.6), Russia (13.2), Belarus (9.9), 39,687 76.7
Germany (8.2), and China (7.7)
NPK China (29.3), India (8.2), Russia (6), 47,186 50.4
France (4), and Turkey (3).
Note: MT=metric ton. Based on capacity of operative plants in 2008-09 according to IFDC Worldwide Fertilizer Capacity
Listings by Plant.
Top‐4 FIRMS generally control more than half of EACH
Major COUNTRY production capacity
Note: Based on capacity of operative plants in 2008‐09 according to IFDC Worldwide
Fertilizer Capacity Listings by Plant.
Empirical model
• We estimate the following dynamic price model.
ln pijt ln pijt 1 mktstructu reijt X ijt ijt
ijt ci uijt
where pijt is the price of urea in country i from region j at year t; mktstructureijt is
a measure of market concentration; Xijt is a vector of controls; ci is a country
specific effect and uijt is an idiosyncratic shock.
• We use annual data on urea for 38 countries during1970‐2002.
• The panel nature of our data permits us to exploit differences in market structure
across countries and time.
• Estimate model following Arellano & Bond (1991) GMM procedure to account for the
potential correlation of ci with some of the Xijt, and the potential endogeneity of
market structure and the lag of price.
Effect of Market Concentration on Urea Prices
Concentration measure Arellano‐Bond
difference GMM
Top‐4 ratio on production capacity
Model 1 Model 2 • Positive correlation
Measure 1 0.032 0.316 between concentration
Measure 2 0.718 0.817*
Top‐4 ratio on number of plants and prices (when
Measure 1 ‐1.013 ‐0.858
Measure 2 0.976** 1.155** significant).
HHI on production capacity
Measure 1 0.979 1.058
Measure 2 0.672 0.558
HHI on number of plants
Measure 1 1.642* 1.654*
Measure 2 0.998** 0.921** Note: * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; ***
significant at 1%. Measure 1 corresponds to the
Main producer & share
weighted average of the measure of market
imports/consumption Yes No concentration at the country and regional levels;
Among top‐4 producers & share No Yes Measure 2 is the measure of market concentration at
imports/consumption either the country or regional level, depending on
Regional fixed effects Yes Yes whether most of the urea consumed is from local
Year fixed effects Yes Yes production or imports.
Simulating Effects of Increasing Competition
• We conduct a basic simulation analysis.
‐ First simulate the general impact of increased competition on prices, fertilizer intake,
crop production and rural income.
(use elasticities derived above and from other related studies)
‐ Then perform a cost‐benefit analysis for selected countries.
(Ghana, Kenya, Senegal and Tanzania in SSA; Bangladesh and India in SA)
• Based on the top‐4 concentration ratio results, a10% increase in competition leads to:
‐ Conservative scenario: 8.2% decrease in prices.
‐ Optimistic scenario: 11.6% decrease in prices.
Impact on fertilizer intake, crop production and rural
income of a 10 percent decrease in concentration
Conservative Optimistic
Variable Scenario Scenario
Global prices
Elasticity of prices to concentration 0.82 1.16
Change in prices ‐8.2% ‐11.6%
Fertilizer use
Average elasticity of fertilizer use to prices ‐1.62 ‐1.62
Increase in fertilizer use 13.3% 18.8%
Crop production
Elasticity of production to fertilizer use 0.25 0.25
Increase in crop production 3.3% 4.7%
Rural income
Share of crop sales to rural income 0.30 0.40
Increase in rural income 1.0% 1.9%
Impact on fertilizer intake, crop production and rural
income of a 10% decrease in concentration
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
US$ million US$ million
• NPV in 4 countries in SSA: US$1 billion (3% discount rate); US$561 million (5% discount rate).
• NPV in 2 countries in SA: US$21.4 billion (3% discount rate); US$15.6 billion (5% discount rate).
Input Interaction and Potential Yields
(Average Across SSA)
Long Maturity Period Varieties Medium Maturity Period Varieties
6 6
5 5
4 4
yield yield
(t/ha)
3 (t/ha)
3
2 2
1 1
0 0
10 8 100 10 8 100
80 80
irrigation rate 6 60 irrigation rate 6 60
4 40 fertilization rate 4 40 fertilization rate
(mm/ha/week) 2 20 (mm/ha/week) 2 20
0 (kg[N]/ha) 0 (kg[N]/ha)
Short Maturity Period Varieties Very Short Maturity Period Varieties
6 6
5 5
4 4
yield yield
(t/ha)
3 (t/ha)
3
2 2
1 1
0 0
10 8 100 10 100
80 8 80
irrigation rate 6 60 irrigation rate 6 60
4 40 fertilization rate 4 40 fertilization rate
(mm/ha/week) 2 20 (mm/ha/week) 2 20
0 (kg[N]/ha) 0 (kg[N]/ha)
Final Comments
• There are significant benefits of increased competition in the fertilizer
industry at the global / regional level
• Increasing competition in the global fertilizer industry could be given
by:
• Investment through foreign investment , PPP, or multilateral
platforms to create new plants in priority regions
• Coordination between the various competition agencies to avoid
trade restrictions and promoting competition in the fertilizer
industry
• It is necessary to promote the sustainable use of fertilizers and that it
responds to a soil maps for a sustainable intensification agricultural
strategy