MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

DIRECTORAT GENERAL OF ELECTRICITY

DRAFT GENERAL PLAN OF ELECTRICITY (RUKN) 2012 -

2031

PRESENTED BY:
Hasril Nuzahar
Director of Electricity Program Supervision

on :
Coffee Morning Directorate General of Electricity with Stakeholders in Electricity Sector

Jakarta, 7 Februari 2013

 Legal Basis
 Law No. 30 Year 2009 on electricity:
Article 7 : RUKN is prepared based on national energy policy and set by
Government after consulting with Parliament. RUKN prepared together with
local government and further the RUKN becomes base for preparation of
General Plan for Local Government (RUKD)

 Government Regulation No. 14 Year 2012 on Power Supply Business Activity :

Article 8: power supply business for public need is carried out in line with
General Plan of Electricity and Power Supply Business Plan (RUPTL), where
RUPTL prepared by power supply business stakeholders that apply for power
supply business license (applicant) must concern on General Plan of Electricity

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

 Consideration of Changes of RUKN
 New regulation that arranges electricity sector (Law No. 30/2009 concerning
electricity, PP. No. 14/2012 on Power Supply Business Activity, PP. No. 42/
2012 on Cross Country Power Trade, and PP No. 62/2012 on Power Supporting
Business Services ).

 Progress of development achievement of 10,0000 MW Phase I. .

 Progress of the implementation of 10.000 MW Phase II.

 The implementation of Masterplan Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia

Economy Development (MP3EI).

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

 Direction for Power Supply Development
 Development of power plant capacity in term of :
− To Support MP3EI
− To finish the shortage of power supply
− To increase reserves by mostly using local energy source and also to limit the plan for
development of oil fuel power plant.

 Development of power plant for peak load by using gas and PLTA (pump storage or
ordinary type of damp), so fuel oil power plant development is minimized
.
 To support other power plants that use new renewable energy, in addition to fulfill power
need, in reducing CO2 emission level by giving interesting investment scheme and more
ocmpetitive selling price of power
Mix Primary Energy Policy for Power Generation
 Primary energy source should be used optimally in line with National Energy Policy (KEN)
to guarantee sustainable power supply, and its utilization prioritized from new renewable
energy source
 As for deduction of oil fuel dependency, Government guarantees coal supply for power
generation through DMO policy and supports domestic gas use for power plants.

 The utilization of new energy source such as nuclear energy is last option after optimizing
the use of renewbale nergy source and other new energy source potency. .

2012 2021

Gas Gas
22.60% Geotherma 18.8%
Coal Geothermal
l
51.08% 11.0%
4.75%
coal
Water Water
62.8%
6.44% 6.5%

others others
Oil fuel 0.12% 0.1%
Oil fuel
15.02% 0.8%
Rural Electricity Program Policy and Electrification
Ratio

 Handling of social mission meant to hep less fortunate society group, and electrify the
whole area of Indonesia conits of underprevilaged area, remote area, and rural electricity
development .
 National electrification ratio targets 80% by the end of 2014, it is expected to become
around 99% by the end of 2020.
100
99.92 100.00
99.20 99.26 99.33 99.40 99.47 99.54 99.61 99.69 99.76 99.84
95
95.98

92.76
90
89.56

% 85 86.37

83.18
80
80.00

75 77.65
75.30

70
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Flow Chart Projection of Power Demand dan
Supply
start

Historical Data
(Input)

Regression Analysis
(Model)

Electricity energy Need Prediction

(Output)

Additional Power Need

(MW)

stop

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

 Assumption and Projection of Draft RUKN
2012 - 2031
No. Uraian 2011 - 2014 2015 - 2031

1. Economy Growth Assumption *) 6,4% - 7,0% 8,0%

*) turun menjadi 3,0%
2. Inflation Assumption 6,5%
pada tahun 2025
Annual Population Growth
Assumption **)
3. - Jawa - Bali rata-rata 1,3 %
- Out side Jawa - Bali rata-rata 2,1 %
- Indonesia rata-rata 1,7 %
Annual Prediction of Electricity
Energy Need growth
4. - Jawa - Bali rata-rata 8,6 %
- Out side Jawa - Bali rata-rata 13,5 %
- Indonesia rata-rata 10,1 %
*) refers to MP3EI
**) In line with BPS Census 2010
Projection Result of Draft RUKN 2012 - 2031

System Description Unit 2012 2021 2031

Jawa-Bali Needs TWh 130 274 621
Peak Load GW 23 46 102
Additional Power Plants GW 5 41 119
capacity
Out side of Needs TWh 41 115 454
Jawa-Bali Peak load GW 8 23 87
Additional Power Plant GW 4 26 118
capacity
Indonesia Needs TWh 171 389 1.075
Peak Load GW 31 69 189
Additional power plant GW 9 67 237
capacity
 Projection of Jawa – Bali TWh
300 1,200

250 1,000

200 800
Additional power need (GW)
Existing capacity (GW)
On going capacity (plan) (GW) 150 600
Peak Load (GW)
Electricity energy need

100 400
GW

50 200

0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Kebutuhan tambahan daya (GW) **) 5 8 11 14 18 22 27 31 36 41 46 52 58 65 72 80 88 97 108 119
Kapasitas exsisting (GW) *) 25 24 23 23 22 22 21 21 20 20 19 19 18 18 17 17 16 16 16 15
Kapasitas tahun berjalan (rencana) (GW) 30 32 34 37 41 44 48 52 56 60 65 70 75 81 88 95 103 112 122 133
Beban Puncak (GW) 23 24 26 29 31 34 37 40 43 46 50 54 58 63 68 73 79 86 94 102
Kebutuhan Energi Listrik (TWh) 130 141 153 166 181 197 214 233 253 274 295 319 345 374 405 440 478 521 568 621
*) Installed capacity year 2011 experience derating)
**) Acumulation

Additional power need per year (20 years) Average 5.821 MW

Additional power need per year (10 year) Average 3.827 MW
 Projection Out of Jawa – Bali TWh
300 1,200

250 1,000

200 800

150 600

100 400
GW

50 200

0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Kebutuhan tambahan daya (GW) **) 4 6 7 9 11 13 16 19 23 26 30 35 41 47 55 63 74 86 101 118
Kapasitas exsisting (GW) *) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Kapasitas tahun berjalan (rencana) (GW) 12 13 14 16 18 20 23 25 29 32 36 40 46 52 59 68 78 90 104 121
Beban Puncak (GW) 8 9 10 11 13 14 16 18 20 23 26 29 33 37 42 48 56 64 74 87
Kebutuhan Energi Listrik (TWh) 41 45 50 56 63 71 80 91 103 115 130 147 167 190 218 250 289 335 389 454

*) Kapasitas terpasang tahun 2011 yang mengalami penurunan kemampuan (derating)

**) Akumulasi

Additional power need per year (20 years)

rata-rata 5.889 MW
(20 thn)
Additional power need per year (10 thn) rata-rata 2.619 MW
 Projection Indonesia TWh
300 1,200

250 1,000

200 800

150 600

GW 100 400

50 200

0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Kebutuhan tambahan daya (GW) **) 9 13 18 23 29 36 43 50 59 67 77 87 99 112 126 143 162 183 208 237
Kapasitas exsisting (GW) *) 32 32 31 30 29 28 28 27 26 26 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 21 20 20
Kapasitas tahun berjalan (rencana) (GW) 41 45 49 53 58 64 70 77 85 92 101 110 121 133 147 163 181 202 226 254
Beban Puncak (GW) 31 34 37 40 44 48 53 58 64 69 76 83 91 100 110 122 135 150 168 189
Kebutuhan Energi Listrik (TWh) 171 186 203 223 244 268 294 324 356 389 425 466 512 564 623 690 767 855 957 1,075
*) Kapasitas terpasang tahun 2011 yang mengalami penurunan kemampuan (derating)
**) Akumulasi

Average
Additional power need per year (20 thn)
11.710 MW
Additional power need per year (10 thn) Average 6.447 MW
 Compaarison of Projection Result
1,200

RUKN 2008-2027
1,000
Draft RUKN 2010-2029
Draft RUKN 2012-2031
Realisasi Konsumsi
800
Electricity Energy Need (TWh)

600

400

200

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
RUKN 2008-2027 140 153 166 182 198 217 237 260 285 312 342 376 413 454 499 549 605 667 736 813
Draft RUKN 2010-2029 145 157 169 183 198 215 233 253 274 298 325 353 385 419 458 500 546 597 653 716
Draft RUKN 2012-2031 171 186 203 223 244 268 294 324 356 389 425 466 512 564 623 690 767 855 957 1,075
Realisasi Konsumsi 129 134 147 158 171

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

Electricity Energy Need vs Primary Energy Potency
Year Electricity Energy
Produksi Energi Listrik
Primary Energy Potency
Potensi Energi Primer
Year
Tahun production
TWh Growth (%) Jenis Satuan Asli BOE Setara TWh
2012 195 6.9 Batubara 148,356.06 Juta Ton 454,696,488,294 741,756
2013 212 8.5 Gas Bumi 153.38 TSCF 27,547,048 45
2014 231 8.8 Minyak Bumi 7,732.28 Juta Barel 7,732,280,000 12,614
2015 253 9.6 Panas Bumi 29,215.00 Mwe 2,353,215,663 3,839 *)
2016 277 9.6 Air 12,411.20 MW 333,233,273 544 *)
2017 304 9.6 CBM 453.30 TCF 81,412,680 133
2018 333 9.7
2019 366 9.8
2020 402 9.9
2021 438 9.1 Primary Energy Potency
2022 479 9.3
batubara-coal
2023 524 9.5
Gas bumi-gas
2024 575 9.7
Panas bumi-
2025 633 10.0
geothermal
2026 698 10.3
Air- hydro
2027 773 10.7 CBM
2028 858 11.0
2029 955 11.4
2030 1,068 11.8
2031 1,198 12.2
Total 10,769 9.9 465,224,176,958 758,930

*) for 20 years and after keep producing power

*) For 20 years and after keep producing power

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

 www.djlpe.esdm.go.id

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat