TOPIC: Climate Change

RESEARCH FROM NASA

(National Aeronautics and Space Administration )

What is Climate Change?

“Climate change” encompasses global warming, but refers to the broader range of changes
that are happening to our planet. These include rising sea levels, shrinking mountain glaciers,
accelerating ice melt in Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic, and shifts in flower/plant
blooming times. These are all consequences of the warming, which is caused mainly by
people burning fossil fuels and putting out heat-trapping gases into the air. The terms “global
warming” and “climate change” are sometimes used interchangeably, but strictly they refer to
slightly different things.

How do we know that it exists?

(image from https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/)

The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have
been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age
about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human
civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s
orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely
(greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20 th
century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.1

Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the
big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on
a global scale. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals of a changing
climate.

The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-
19th century.2Their ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is
the scientific basis of many instruments flown by NASA. There is no question that increased
levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response.

Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the
Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be
found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This
ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly ten times
faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming.3

What is the evidence of Climate Change?

1. Global Temperature Rise

The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2.0 degrees
Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change
driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made

1IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers

B.D. Santer et.al., “A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere,” Nature vol 382, 4 July 1996,
39-46
Gabriele C. Hegerl, “Detecting Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change with an Optimal Fingerprint Method,” Journal of
Climate, v. 9, October 1996, 2281-2306
V. Ramaswamy et.al., “Anthropogenic and Natural Influences in the Evolution of Lower Stratospheric Cooling,” Science
311 (24 February 2006), 1138-1141
B.D. Santer et.al., “Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes,” Science
vol. 301 (25 July 2003), 479-483.
2In the 1860s, physicist John Tyndall recognized the Earth's natural greenhouse effect and suggested that slight changes in
the atmospheric composition could bring about climatic variations. In 1896, a seminal paper by Swedish scientist Svante
Arrhenius first predicted that changes in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could substantially alter the surface
temperature through the greenhouse effect.
3National Research Council (NRC), 2006. Surface Temperature Reconstructions For the Last 2,000 Years. National
Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php
emissions into the atmosphere.4 Most of the warming occurred in the past
35 years, with 16 of the 17 warmest years on record occurring since 2001.
Not only was 2016 the warmest year on record, but eight of the 12 months
that make up the year — from January through September, with the
exception of June — were the warmest on record for those respective
months.5

2. Warming Oceans
The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700
meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees
Fahrenheit since 1969.6

3. Shrinking Ice Sheets

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from
NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150
to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002
and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles)
of ice between 2002 and 2005.

4. Glacial Retreat
Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the
Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. 7

5. Decreased Snow Cover

Satellite observations reveal that the amount of spring snow cover in the
Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades and that
the snow is melting earlier.8

6. Sea level Rise

4 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

5 https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20170118/)
6 Levitus, et al, "Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems," Geophys.
Res. Lett. 36, L07608 (2009).
7National Snow and Ice Data Center
World Glacier Monitoring Service
8National Snow and Ice Data Center
C. Derksen and R. Brown, "Spring snow cover extent reductions in the 2008-2012 period exceeding climate model
projections," GRL, 39:L19504
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/snow_extent.html
Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, Data History Accessed August 29, 2011.
Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last
two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century.9

7. Declining Arctic Sea Ice

Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over
the last several decades.10

8. Extreme Events
The number of record high temperature events in the United States has
been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has
been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed increasing
numbers of intense rainfall events.11

9. Ocean Acidification
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface
ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent.12 13 This increase is the
result of humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and
hence more being absorbed into the oceans. The amount of carbon dioxide
absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion
tons per year.14 15

9https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
Church, J. A. and N.J. White (2006), A 20th century acceleration in global sea level rise, Geophysical Research Letters, 33,
L01602, doi:10.1029/2005GL024826.
The global sea level estimate described in this work can be downloaded from the CSIRO website.
10 L. Polyak, et.al., “History of Sea Ice in the Arctic,” in Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at
High Latitudes, U.S. Geological Survey, Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.2,
January 2009, chapter 7
R. Kwok and D. A. Rothrock, “Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESAT records: 1958-2008,”
Geophysical Research Letters, v. 36, paper no. L15501, 2009
http://nsidc.org/sotc/sea_ice.html

11"Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change," National Academies Press, 2016
https://www.nap.edu/read/21852/chapter/1

Kunkel, K. et al, "Probable maximum precipitation and climate change," Geophysical Research Letters, (12 April
2013) DOI: 10.1002/grl.50334

Kunkel, K. et al, "Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of the Knowledge," Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society, 2012.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/
12 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F
13 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification
14C. L. Sabine et.al., “The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2,” Science vol. 305 (16
July 2004), 367-371
15 Copenhagen Diagnosis, p. 36.
Do scientists agree on climate change?

Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – agree that
humans are causing global warming and climate change. Most of the leading science
organizations around the world have issued public statements expressing this, including
international and U.S. science academies, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change and a whole host of reputable scientific bodies around the world.

What is the cause climate change?

A layer of greenhouse gases – primarily water vapor, and including much smaller
amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – acts as a thermal blanket
for the Earth, absorbing heat and warming the surface to a life-supporting average
of 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius).

Most climate scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming
trend is human expansion of the "greenhouse effect" 16— warming that
results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space.

16 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014

United States Global Change Research Program, "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States," Cambridge
University Press, 2009
Naomi Oreskes, "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change," Science 3 December 2004: Vol. 306 no. 5702 p. 1686 DOI:
10.1126/science.1103618
Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. Long-lived
gases that remain semi-permanently in the atmosphere and do not respond
physically or chemically to changes in temperature are described as
"forcing" climate change. Gases, such as water vapor, which respond
physically or chemically to changes in temperature are seen as
"feedbacks."

On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse. Over the
last century the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the
concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This happens because
the coal or oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to
make CO2. To a lesser extent, the clearing of land for agriculture, industry,
and other human activities has increased concentrations of greenhouse
gases.

What are the consequences of Climate Change?

1. Temperatures will continue to rise

2. Frost-free season (and growing season) will lengthen
3. Changes in precipitation patterns
4. More drought and heat waves
5. Hurricanes will become stronger and more intense
6. Sea level will rise 1-4 feet by 2100
7. Arctic is likely to become ice-free

Is it too late to stop Climate Change?

Humans have caused major climate changes to happen already, and have
set in motion more changes still. Even if humans stopped emitting
greenhouse gases today, global warming would continue to happen for at
least several more decades if not centuries. That’s because it takes a while
for the planet (for example, the oceans) to respond, and because carbon
dioxide – the predominant heat-trapping gas – lingers in the atmosphere for
hundreds of years. There is a time lag between what humans do and when
they feel it.

In the absence of major action to reduce emissions, global temperature is

on track to rise by an average of 6°C (10.8°F), according to the latest
estimates. Some scientists argue a “global disaster” is already unfolding at
the poles of the planet; the Arctic, for example, may be ice-free at the end
of the summer melt season within just a few years. Yet other experts are
concerned about Earth passing one or more “tipping points” – abrupt,
perhaps irreversible changes that tip our climate into a new state.
But it may not be too late to avoid or limit some of the worst effects of
climate change. Responding to climate change will involve a two-tier
approach: 1) “mitigation” – reducing the flow of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere; and 2) “adaptation” – learning to live with, and adapt to, the
climate change that has already been set in motion.

The key question is: what emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants
be in the years to come? Recycling and driving more fuel-efficient cars are
examples of important behavioral change that will help, but they will not be
enough. Because climate change is a truly global, complex problem with
economic, social, political and moral ramifications, the solution will require
both a globally-coordinated response (such as international policies and
agreements between countries, a push to cleaner forms of energy) and
local efforts on the city- and regional-level (for example, public transport
upgrades, energy efficiency improvements, sustainable city planning, etc.).

How to stop climate change?

1. Mitigation – reducing climate change – involves reducing the flow of heat-trapping

greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
2. Adaptation – adapting to life in a changing climate – involves adjusting to actual or
expected future climate.

AL GORE (An Inconvenient Truth)

A 2006 American documentary film directed by Davis Guggenheim about former United
States Vice President Al Gore's campaign to educate citizens about global warming.

An Inconvenient Truth presents in film form an illustrated talk on climate by Al Gore, aimed at
alerting the public to an increasing "planetary emergency" due to global warming

Al Gore stressed that global warming "is really not a political issue, so much as a moral one"
describing the consequences he believes global warming will produce if the amount of
human-generated greenhouse gases is not significantly reduced in the very near future. Gore
also presents Antarctic ice coring data showing CO2 levels higher now than in the past
650,000 years.

The film includes segments intended to refute critics who say that global warming is
unproven or that warming will be insignificant. For example, Gore discusses the possibility of
the collapse of a major ice sheet in Greenland or in West Antartica, either of which could
raise global sea levels by approximately 20 feet (6m), flooding coastal areas and producing
100 million refugees. Melt water from Greenland, because of its lower salinity, could then halt
the currents that keep northern Europe warm and quickly trigger dramatic local cooling there.
It also contains various short animated projections of what could happen to different animals
more vulnerable to global warming.

The documentary ends with Gore arguing that if appropriate actions are taken soon, the
effects of global warming can be successfully reversed by releasing less CO2 and planting
more vegetation to consume existing CO2. Gore calls upon his viewers to learn how they can
help him in these efforts. Gore concludes the film by saying:
Each one of us is a cause of global warming, but each one of us can make choices
to change that with the things we buy, the electricity we use, the cars we drive;
we can make choices to bring our individual carbon emissions to zero. The
solutions are in our hands, we just have to have the determination to make it
happen. We have everything that we need to reduce carbon emissions, everything
but political will. But in America, the will to act is a renewable resource.

Scientific bases for the film:

• The Keeling curve, measuring CO2 from the Mauna Loa Observatory.
• The retreat of numerous glaciers is shown in before-and-after photographs.
• A study by researchers at the Physics Institute at the University of Bern and the
European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica(EPICA) presenting data from Antarctic ice
core showing carbon dioxide concentrations higher than at any time during the past
650,000 years.
• Instrumental temperature record showing that the ten hottest years ever measured in this
atmospheric record had all occurred in the previous fourteen years.
• A 2004 survey, by Naomi Oreskes of 928 peer-reviewed scientific articles on global
climate change published between 1993 and 2003. The survey, published as an
editorial in the journal Science, found that every article either supported the human-
caused global warming consensus or did not comment on it. Gore also presented a
2004 study by Max and Jules Boykofshowing 53% of articles that appeared in major US
newspapers over a fourteen-year period gave roughly equal attention to scientists who
expressed views that global warming was caused by humans as they did to global
warming "skeptics" (many of them funded by carbon-based industry interests),
creating a false balance.