Econometric Course of Professor Sul @ UTD: first session

Meisam Hejazinia

1/14/2013

Try to attend the tutor sessions, on friday 9-10. If two samples is took x1 , x2 and x3 , x4 is took
and we take the average, or you increase the size for
x ,x ,x
Dreive limiting distribution, and mathematical re- example take three 1 32 3 this is called statisitc, if
lations. Econometrics self study would be impossible the size of sample is increased, the statistic would be
if you do not learn to how to read in this class. in the form of normal distribution.

You need to study yourself to avoid forgetting In many cases the distribuion is not normal.
that is quite an epidemy. Income distribution is in the form of free scale, log
normal distribution, as an example.
We will talk about theoritical econometric, which
would be pure mathematic. You need to understand If you take integral, it would be cumulative form.
which test is used for what situation.
if x ∼ N (µ, σ 2 ) then if you add a number to it,
In econometric II you will learn about the applied then only the mean will change so we will have
econometrics. x + 100 ∼ N (µ + 100, σ 2 ).

Only 45 minutes from 9:00 am you will have the Do not ask average since one could be 10 million
first test. Test format would be the same. You and change everything. Centeral tendency is median
need to memorize until page 33 for test one, some and you need to ask that, rather than average.
is covered and some of them not, and you need to
memorize very notations. For central tendancy median is better than aver-
age.
Econometricians have their own commonalities,
and language. You need to memorize this language, Things that already happened is non-random,
and these are alphabets that you need to memorize. but to find evidance as a researcher it will become
random.
Study hard for test.
If you multiply a number to a random variable
Memorize all the matrix algebra formulas. when it is random then we will have 2x ∼ N (2µ, 4σ 2 )

”Normal” distribution: Check wikipedia for studying the distriutions.

About 95% of statistics when size of sample Beta(α, β) distribution has lots of shapes.
increases will be the normal distribution.
You may not think about total size, but think

1
about share that you got, or portion of it, and it xt is time series variable
would be in the form of Beta distribtuion.
xit is a panel variable
Beta distribution can not create the periodical
form, but truncate normal can. Cross sectional variable and time series ar totally
different and each could lead to different result.
In normal distribution mean and variance are
independant. In other distribution than normal xn stands for i = 1, . . . , n
when you change mean, variance will change. xT stands for t = 1, , T
xn T
If distribution is normal estimate of mean and PN
variance would be independent. xn = n1 i=1 xi
For a dice the average would be E(x) =
Weibull distribution is used for growth models. 1. 16 + 2. 61 + 3. 16 + . . . + 6. 61 = 3.5

Logistic distribution OM and Marketing students If you through a dice and you take the average it
should know. is not 3.5.

Cauchy distribution does not have mean. It could If we through a dice four times the average would
be in the form of undefined fraction of number divide be x4 .
by zero.
If you increase the sample size x100 would become
First moment is mean, and second moment is closre to 3.5.
variance.
When n is increases for throughing this dice xn
Variance V (X) = E((X − E(X))2 ] variantion mean the sample mean would converge to 3.5.
toward the mean.
How fast this estimate is converaged dependes on
The moment generating function helps to define the method you use for estimation.
distribution function based on Tailor extension.
For this we will put xn →p 3.5 mean it converges
When you have cumulant function you would probability to 3.5, and it may not actually be equal
be able to use Tailor extension to create the main to it.
function.
First one shows that distant will go to zero, but
Large Sample Distribution Theory second one which says prob(limn→∞ xn = c) = 1 is
stronger saying that a.s. c mean almost sure it will go
Notation is very important in econometric, and to c with probability of one.
you must use the same notation.
Part three and four will tak about distribution of
xn is totally different from x. sample mean.

→p is also important notation. When you increase the mean the variance will go
to zero, and eventually the probability will be equal
xi is cross sectional variable to one.

2
 1
Pn
(xi − c)2 → 0 as n → ∞. E( n1 xi )2 = E n12 ( xi )2 = 1
P P
n n2 E(x1 + x2 + . . . +
xn ) 2
Consistent estimator
xi ∼ d(0, σ 2 )
There are many different definitions.
E( n1 xi ) 2 = E n12 (x1 + . . . + xn )2
P
=
plimn→∞ xn = c is called consistent estimator. 1 2 2
n2 E[x1 + . . . + xn + x1 (x2 + . . . + xn ) + x2 (x1 + x3 +
+xn ) + . . . + xn (x1 + x2 + . . . + xn−1 )]
Example: xn = c + /n
E(Xn ) = c + E n E(x21 ) = E(X22 ) = σ 2 identical
if E  6= 0
E = 0.1 E(x1 x2 ) =? if not independent
E(Xn ) = c + 0.1
n 6= c
xn →p c For couple of weeks we assume the correlation
plimxn = c would not exist mean E(x1 x2 ) = 0

EXn = c and plimxn = c ⇒ plimxn = c Therefore we got:

Exn = c xn is unbiased estimator (method of = 1 2 1 2

n2 n.σ = nσ
estimation )
E( n1 xi )2 = E(xn − c)2
P
estimate: number you got.
xn →p 0
i.i.d: identical independent distributed.
xi ∼ i.i.d(µ, σ 2 )
No matter how many courses you take, you may
usually forgot these econometrics, if you don’t use 1
xi = xn →p µ
P
them. It took professor one year after 11 courses to n

review and recall econometrics for his paper.

limn→∞E[ 1 P(xi −µ)]2 =0
n

Median
P can be writtne in the form of weighted xi ∼ d(mu, σ 2 )
mean wi xi

1
P
xi →p µ xi − µ ∼ d(0, σ 2 )
n
Pn
to calculate variance E[ n1 i=1 (xi −P c)]2 = zi ∼ d(0, σ 2 )
1 1
+ . . . + xn − c − . . . c) ] = n2 E(( xi )2 +
E[ n2 (x1 P 2
2
c .n − 2 xi c) xi ∼ i.i.d.(µi , σ 2 )

1 12 identical assumption could be released, yet inde-

c)]2 = [ n1 ( Pxi −P c)]2 =
P P P P
P[ n 2 (x1i − P 2
P n (
2
xi −
pendance assumption is still required.
c) = n2 [( xi ) − 2( xi )( c) + ( c) ]

xi ∼ i.i.d(0, σ 2 ) plim xynn = plimxn

plimyn

1
P
n P xi
if c = 0 plim 1 y
n i

3
 1
P
Sample mean and any statisitcs if sample size goes xnt = n xit
to infinity will converge to normal distribution. √
n(xnt − θt ) →d N (0, σ 2 )
Sample mean is central tendency, and if that
central tendency is estimated will comply normal
distribution.

Mean median and Mode are central tendency, yet

when distribution is not symmetric, median is better.

In econometrics notation is the key. xn and x have

totally different meaning.

xi ∼ i.i.d(0, σ 2 )

1
P
n i

E n1 1 1
P
xi = n E(x1 + . . . + xn ) = n =0

E( n1 xi ) 2 = 1 2
P
nσ

1
xi → N (0, n1 σ 2 )
P
n
√
nxn →d N (0, σ 2 )
√ √
n n1 σxi →d N (0, ( n) n1 σ 2 )
√
nxn →d N (0, σ 2 )
√
nxn
σ2 →d N (0, 1) : t-statistic

xi ∼ i.i.d.(µ, σ 2 )

xi −µ
zi ∼ i.i.d.(0, σ 2 )

xi ∼ i.i.d.(µ, σ 2 )

yi = xi + c

x i t = i + θ t

i ∼ i.i.d.(0, σ 2 )

θt ∼ i.i.d.(0, σθ2 )

4
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