MKT6v99.

0U1 Special Topics:

Bayesian Dynamic Models in Marketing

Summer 2013
Instructor: Dr. Norris Bruce, phD
Meeting Time: Tuesday 1 0:30AM-2:30pm
Class Room: SOM 1.117
Office Hours: Tuesday 4:00pm*6:00pm, by appointment
Office: SOM 3.220
Phone: 972-883-6293
Email: norris.bruce@utdaiias.edu
TA: Abhishek Rishabh

Course Description

This is an advanced PhD seminar that introduces you to Bayesian dynamic models. Its
objective
is to help you learn how to develop, estimate, and assess these dynamidEodels; and how
to add
to the marketing dynamics literature.

Recommended Textbooks

General Bqtesian Statistics ;

Bayesian Statistics and Marketing (2005). Peter E. Rossi, Greg M. Allenby, Rob
McCulloch.

D)tnamic Linear Models ;

Petris, Petrone and campagnoli (2009). Dynamic Linear Models witht. Springer.
West and Han'ison (1999). Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models. 2nd Edition,
Springer.

D.ynamic N o n- Line ar Mo de I s :

Branko Ristic, Sanjeev Arulampalam Neil Gordon(2004). Beyond. the Kalman Filter: particle
Filters for Tracking Applications. Artech House Radar Library.

Other readings including joumal articles andlor book chapters are referenced in the ,,Class
Schedule, Topics and Readings" section below.

Course Requirements:

Course Proiect: For this project students are encouraged to work in pairs. The purpose of the
project is to have you appiy some of the techniques covered in the course to a substantive
marketing problem. My hope is that some of your ideas will eventually be publishable. please
submit a two page repqrl by June 25th containing detailed explanation of the potential problem
you want to work on, the plans for collecting the data, and the modeling approach you hope to

Page 1 of4
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take. The project consists of two deliverables: 1) a copy of your code (properly documented and
preferably wdtten in Matlab); and2) a 30-minutes presentation which should include a
description of your problem, data, model, estimation and results.

Week]y Schedule. Topics and Readings

Readings with asterisks are recommended, not required.

Meeting 1, June 4: Course overview; introduction to Bayesian Dynamic Models

Richard J. Meinhold and Nozer D. Singpurwalia (1983). Understanding the Kalman Filter.
The American Statistician, Vol. 37, No. 2,pp.123-127.

Meeting 2, June 11: Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model (DLM)

West and Harrison (1999), "Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models", 2nd Edition, Springer
(ch.4).
*Carter, C., R. Kohr. 1994. On Gibbs sampling for state space models. Biometrika 81 541-553.

Frank M. Bass, Noris Bruce, Sumit Majumdar, and B. P. S. Murthi (2007). Wearout Effects of
Different Adverlising Themes: A Dynamic Bayesian Model of the Advertising-Sales
Reiationship. Marketing Science, vol.26, issue 2, pages 179-195.

Non'is i. Bruce, Natasha Zhang Foutz, Ceren KplSarrci (2012). Dynamic Effectiveness of
aaGrtising and Word of Mouth in Sequential Distribution of New Products. Journal of
Marketing Research: Vol. 49, No. 4, pp.469-486.

Meeting 3, June 18: Dynamic Factor Models

Lopes, H.F. and West, M. (2004). Bayesian Model assessment in factor analysis. Statistica
Sinica, 74,41-67 .

Lopes, Hedibert F., Esther Salazar, and Dani Gamerman (2008), "Spatial Dynamic Factor
Analysis," Bayesian Anaiysis, 3 (4),759-92.

;i.,f.;. I
,\'-- O Ngn"ULftuce, Kay Peters, Prasad A. Naik (2012). Discovering How Advertising Grows Sales
-. and Builds Brands. Journal of Marketing Research: Vol. 49, No. 6, pp.793-806.

Meeting 4, June 25: Hierarchical DLM and its applications

Gamerman and Migon (1993). Dynamic Hierarchical Models. Journal of the Royal Statistical
Society; Series B, 55, 629-642.

Neelamegham and C.lhtagunta(200$. Modeling and Forecasting the Sales of Technology

Products. Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 2, 19 5 -232.

Page 2 of 4
 Meeting 5, July 2: Dynamic GLMS and Conditional Linear Models
+Fen'eira and Gamerman (2000). Dynamic Generalized Linear Models: in GeneralizedLinear
Models: A Bayesian Perspective, CRC.

*Claudia Cargnoni, Peter Mriller & Mike West (1997). Bayesian Forecasting of Multinomial
Time Series through Conditionally Gaussian Dynamic Models. Journal of the American
Statistical Association. Volume 92, Issue 438, pages 640-647.

Teixeira, Wedel and Pieters (2010). Moment-to-Moment Optimal Branding in TV-commercials:

Preventing Avoidance by Pulsing. Marketing Science, Yol.29, No. 5, pp. 783-804

Oliver J.; Sonnier, Garrett P. (2011). The Evolution of Internal Market Structure.
- 7, Rutz,
L' Marketing Science. MarlAprZ}l 1, Vol. 30 Issue 2, p274.

Gamerman (1998). Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Dynamic Generalized Linear Models.
Biometrika, 85, 275-227 .

Meeting 6: July 9: No Class - Marketing Science Conference,Istanbul Turkey

Meeting 7, July 16: L*ent Variable Approach to Measurement Error in DLMs

Bayesian instrumental variables pp183-1 87: Bayesian Statistics and Markeflng, Rossi et al.

Ngik, Prasad A.; Tsai, Chih-Ling (2000). Controlling Measurement Errors in Models of
Advertising Competition. Joumal of Marketing Research (JMR);Feb2000, Vo1. 37 Issue 1, p113.

, .. : Garrett P Sjpntsl, Leigh McAlister, and Oiiver J. Rutz (201 1). A Dynamic Model of the Effect
(",-::1" of Oniine Communications on Firm Sales. Marketing Science. Vol. 30, No. 4, 702-716.

Meeting 8, July 23: Nonlinear Filters

Understanding the Extended and Unscented Kalman Filters: in Beyond the Kalman Filter, Ristic
et a|(2004).

Jinhong Xie, X. Michael Song, Marvin Sirbu, Qiong Wang (1997). Kalman Filter Estimation of
New Product Diffusion Models. Joumal of Marketing Research, Vol. 34, No. 3 (Aug., 1997),pp.
318-393.

Prasad a
ryuih arhutosh Prasad, Suresh P. Sethi (2208). Building Brand Awareness in
Dynamic Oligopoly Markets. Management Science, Vol. 54, No. 1, pp.129-138.

Page 3 of 4
Meeting 9, July 30: The Ensemble Kalman Filter

Jonathan R. Strouda, Michael L. Steina, Burry M. Leshta, David J. Schwaba & Dmitry Beletskya
(2010). An Ensemble Kalman Filter and Smoother for Satellite Data Assimilation. Joumal of the
American Statistical Association. Volume 105, Issue 49I,2010.

C@g-Gao, Han Wang, Ensheng Weng, S. Lakshmivarahan, Yanfen Zhang,and Yiqi Luo (2011).
Assimilation of multiple data sets with the ensemble Kalman filter to improve forecasts of forest
barbon dynamics. Ecologicai Applications. Volume 21, Issue 5.

Meeting 10, Aug. 6: Project Presentations:

Research Question; Data Coilection and Analysis; Model Development and Estimation; Results.

Page 4 of 4
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