Statistics & Probability | cris naz

DETERMINING PROBABILITIES

Applying the Normal Curve Concepts in Problem Solving

1. The results of a nationwide aptitude test in mathematics are normally distributed with m = 80 and s = 15. Find the
raw score such that 70% of the cases are below it.

ANALYSIS:
a. What are the given?
ANS: m = 80; s = 15; required area = 70%
b. What are you going to find?
ANS: raw score
c. What is suggested by the given to help you solve the problems?
ANS: Find the raw score by determining first corresponding z – score from the Table of Areas under the Normal
Curve. If 70% of the cases lie below the raw score, then 30% of the cases are above it.
d. Will the application of the normal curve concepts be useful?
ANS: The problem involves a normal distribution. Therefore, we can apply the normal curve concepts to solve the
problem.

SOLUTION

STEPS SOLUTION
1. Draw a normal curve

2. Selecting 30%, express this as area. This is the area 30% is the same as 0.3000
to the right of the x – value we want to locate.
3. Find the area between z = 0 and 0.3000 0.5000 – 0.3000 = 0.2000
4. Find the area 0.2000 or the value nearest to it in The area is 0.1985
the Table of Areas Under the Normal Curve
5. Find the z – value that corresponds to 0.1985. z = 0.52 ↔ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 0.1985
6. Find a computing formula for determining raw 𝑋−𝜇
scores 𝑧=
𝜎
7. Modify the formula to solve for X 𝑋 = 𝜇 + 𝑧𝜎
8. Substitute the given values in the modified formula 𝑋 = 𝜇 + 𝑧𝜎
to solve for X.
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 Statistics & Probability | cris naz

𝑋 = 80 + (0.52)(15)
𝑋 = 87.8 ≈ 88
9. Make a concluding statement In the distribution, 70% of the scores are below the score
88.

Example #2: In the same problem, what is the score that divides the distribution such that 99% of the cases is below it?

ANALYSIS: The score is to the right of the mean. Using 1% seems more convenient than using 99%.

STEPS SOLUTION
1. Draw a normal curve

2. Selecting 1%, express this as area. This is the area 1% is the same as 0.1000
to the right of the z – value we want to locate
3. Find the area between z = 0 and 0.0100 0.5000 – 0.0100 = 0.4900
4. Find the area 0.4900 or the value nearest to it in The nearest area is 0.4901
the Table of Areas Under the Normal Curve

5. Find the z – score that corresponds to 0.4901 z = 2.33 ↔ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 0.4901
6. Find a computing formula for determining raw 𝑋−𝜇
scores 𝑧 =
𝜎
7. Modify the formula to solve for X 𝑋 = 𝜇 + 𝑧𝜎
8. Substitute the given values in the modified formula 𝑋 = 𝜇 + 𝑧𝜎
to solve for X.
𝑋 = 80 + (2.33)(15)
𝑋 = 114.95 ≈ 115
9. Make a concluding statement In the distribution, 99% of the scores are below the score
115.

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 Statistics & Probability | cris naz

USING PROBABILITIES TO DETERMINE FREQUENCIES

Example #1:
Given 10,000 scores in Biology. The distribution of scores is normally shaped with 𝜇 = 100 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎 = 15. The raw
scores that correspond to each z – score value are obtained by using the formula:

1. Draw the normal curve as shown below.

2. At the right of the mean, the raw score that correspond to 𝑧 = 1 is 𝜇 + 1𝑠.
That is, 𝑋 = 100 + (1)(14) = 114.

3. The raw score that corresponds to z = 2s is 𝜇 + 2𝑠.

That is, 𝑋 = 100 + (2)(14) = 128.

4. Finally, the raw score that corresponds to 𝑧 = 3 𝑖𝑠 𝜇 + 3𝑠

That is, 𝑋 = 100 + (3)(14) = 142

5. In a similar manner, the raw score that corresponds to 𝑧 = −1 𝑖𝑠

𝑋 = 100 − (1)(14) = 86

6. The raw score that corresponds to z = -2s is

𝑋 = 100 − (2)(14) = 72
7. For the raw score z = – 3, the raw score
𝑋 = 100 − (3)(14) = 58
The normal curve that follows shows the z-scores as well as the corresponding raw scores.

z-scores
Raw Scores

Population Mean

Normal Curve with z – scores and Raw Scores

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 Statistics & Probability | cris naz

8. Multiply the area by 10,000 (the total number of scores in Biology) rounding up to the nearest whole number and
make a concluding statement.

 34.13% of the scores lies between a score of 100 and 114. If we multiply this area by 10 000, then we get
the number of scores in the section of the distribution that corresponds to the scores of 100 and 114.
0.3413 × 10 000 = 3 413
This means that there are 3 413 scores between the two given scores.

 Proceeding in a similar manner:

0.1359 × 10 000 = 1 359 : scores between 114 and 128
0.0215 × 10 000 = 215 : scores between 128 and 142
 For the other half of the distribution,
3 413 scores are between 86 and 100;
1 359 scores are between 72 and 86;
215 scores are between 58 and 72; and
13 scores are below 58

Activity #1:
The weights of 1 000 children average 50 kg and the standard deviation is 5 kg. How many children weigh between
40 kg and 55 kg?

Assignment:
1. Explain the difference between sample and population.
2. What is sampling distribution of sample means?
3. Try to do what is instructed on the following:
 Samples of three cards are drawn at random from a population of eight cards numbered from 1 to 8.
a. How many possible samples can be drawn?
b. Construct the sampling distribution of sample means
c. Construct a histogram of the sampling distribution of the means.

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