Republic of Zambia

Ministry of Transport and Communications

Zambia Meteorological Department

Rainfall Performance
October, November, December (OND) 2017

Seasonal Forecast Update

January, February, March and April (JFM) 2018

Rainfall Performance: October, November and December (OND) 2017

Performance of rainfall for the period from 1st October to 31st December 2017 has generally
been normal to above normal for most parts of the country except areas around Lusaka,
Muchinga, Southern and Western provinces which have recorded below average rainfall
(see figure 1). The projection given at the start of the season for this period was normal
rainfall.

Figure 1: Total Rainfall Received (right panel) & Rainfall Departure from Normal (left panel)
Period: 1st October to 31st December, 2017

The dry and hot conditions that have been observed over Lusaka, Southern, Western and
southern parts of Central and Eastern Provinces have been largely due to two (2) major
atmospheric systems – (1) the consecutive occurrence of deep Low-Pressure systems and
tropical cyclones over the Mozambique channel and the Indian ocean, (2) the High-
Pressure system (in the middle-levels of the atmosphere) centered over Botswana and
Zimbabwe (see figure 2).

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 Figure 2: Location and extent of High-Pressure and Low-Pressure systems & Cyclones
Period: 1st to 15th January 2018

The deep Low-Pressure systems and tropical cyclones by their position and path have
tended to redirect the flow of the rain bearing Congo air-mass, confining it to the northern
half of the country thereby denying the southern half the moisture needed for rainfall.
On the other hand, the atmospheric High-Pressure system over Botswana and Zimbabwe
has induced dry and stable south-easterly air-flow leading to suppression of cloud
development resulting in less rainfall activities, clear skies and warm to hot temperatures
over much of the southern parts of the country. In addition, the High-Pressure system has
pushed the position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the north thereby
confining rainfall activities over the northern potions of the country.

Rainfall Forecast Update: January, February and March (JFM) 2018

Forecast Update for January 2018
The high-pressure system over Botswana and Zimbabwe has continued to persist and
expand northwards and its effect is expected to continue to the month-end of January
2018. This will result in significant reduction of rainfall activities and increased moisture
deficits over much of Zambia (see figure 3).

Figure 3: Rainfall Forecast

Period: 20th to 31st January 2018
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Forecast for January 2018
During the month of January 2018, there is an increased chance for normal to above-normal rainfall
over the northern half of Zambia. In contrast, there is increased chance for below-normal rainfall
over southern Zambia (see figure 4).

Figure 4: Rainfall Forecast Maps

Period: January 2018

Forecast for February 2018

During the month of February 2018, there is increased chance for normal-above-normal rainfall over
the northern half of Zambia while areas around Lusaka, Southern and southern parts of Western
provinces are likely to receive below-normal rainfall (see figure 5).

Figure 5: Rainfall Forecast Maps

Period: February 2018

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Forecast for March 2018
During the month of March 2018, Muchinga and Northern Provinces have a high chance of
receiving normal to above-normal rainfall. However, there is increased chance for below-normal
rainfall over the southern half of Zambia (see figure 6).

Figure 6: Rainfall Forecast Maps

Period: March 2018

Note:
1. Continued suppression of rainfall accompanied by anomalously high temperatures
throughout many parts of Zambia especially over the southern half has led to
substantial moisture deficits and an increased likelihood for adverse crop impacts.
The abnormal dryness has strengthened and expanded and is likely to continue for
the rest of January placing additional moisture stress on crops.
2. The spatial and temporal rainfall distribution has been poor to support maize crop
especially at critical stages over the southern half of the country.
3. Even though the southern half of the country is expected to receive below normal
rainfall, flash floods may still occur due to the likelihood of high intensity rainfall
events.
4. The 2017/2018 Rainfall Forecast issued in September 2017 was based on the SADC
Climate Services Centre through the Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum
(SACORF) process. The statistical methods used under the SARCOF do not account
for climate dynamics such as tropical cyclones and depressions including climate
variability and climate change.
5. In this update and analysis, meteorological observations and gridded data from the
Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) and model data acquired from global
climate prediction centres namely, European Centre for Medium Range Weather
Forecast (ECMWF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA, International Research
Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), and UK Met Office as well as the University of
Reading were used.

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