The role of natural gas in energy

transition
Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić

Power Engineering and Energy Management Chair

Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture
University of Zagreb, Croatia
26th FORUM: Energy Day in Croatia, Zagreb

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

LCOE – various technologies
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
 Power sector developments
Global installed generation capacity net change, 2016 [GW]
Source: Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
http://fs-unep-centre.org/sites/default/files/publications/globaltrendsinrenewableenergyinvestment2017.pdf

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Wind share in electricity demand 2015/16
Denmark – 42%
Ireland16 – 27% Curaçao, Portugal16 – 25%

hard easy
Uruguay16 – 23% C. Verde, Cy.16, Spain – 20%
Nicaragua – 19% Aruba, Germany16 – 16%
Costa Rica, Romania – 13% Sweden, UK16 – 12%
Lithuania16 – 11% Austria16, EU16 – 10%
Estonia, India16, Netherlands16 – 9%
Brazil16, Greece16, Poland16, Turkey16 – 7%
Austria, Belgium16, Canada16, Italy16, Morocco, US16 – 6%
Australia16, Croatia, Honduras, N. Zealand – 5%
Bulgaria16, China16, Finland16, France16, Mex.16, Tunis., World – 4%
Chile16, Jamaica14 – 3%
Dominican R, Hungary, Latvia, Lux., Macedonia, Norway16 – 2%
Czechia, Egypt, Japan, Ukraine – 1%
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
 PV revolution
Solar share in electricity demand 2016
Honduras – 10%
Italy – 9%
Germany, Greece – 7%
Cyprus, EU, Belgium, Bulgaria – 4%
Australia, Czech Rep., Japan, Romania, Spain, UK
– 3%
World, Denmark, France, Slovakia, Slovenia – 2%
Austria, China, Malta, Netherlands, Pakistan,
Portugal, US – 1%
Croatia, Hungary, India, Lux. – 0.5%
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
 Wind and solar: Coal vs. gas?

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Electricity generation by fuel EU28

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 How to increase penetration of
renewables in energy system?
• More grid capacity
• Cycling of thermal power plants
• Power exchanges
• Demand response and integration of power,
heating, cooling, transport and water
systems – smart energy systems
• Energy storage

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Cycling of thermal power plants

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Electricity production in Germany in week 18 2016

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Markets and RES
 Consequences of market liberalisation:
 Demission of base load
 The importance of balancing power (gas,
hydro)
 Cycling of old coal power plants (4000 hours by
2020)
 Market arbitrage and demand response
(power-to-heat, power-to-water, e-mobility,
power-to-efuels)

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Power to heat

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Demand management
 Electromobility
 Only personal cars and short distance light
utility vehicles, 774000 PHEV and BEV sold
in 2016 (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)
 If RESe 80% reduction of primary energy
 Fast charging 70 kW – huge problem if left
uncontrolled, ex AT, 4 mln cars arrives home,
plugs in – 280 GW (14 GW installed cap)
 Smart charging – market based, smoothing
the demand

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 CEEP

not viable
viable

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Fuel switch?

UK vs NL coal vs CCGT switching boundaries

https://www.timera-energy.com/gas-vs-coal-switching-in-europe-key-markets/
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
 Fuel switch
 EU ETS CO2 pricing will go nowhere
before 2025
 CO2 tax coming in non-coal
countries, but hard to do in DE, PL
 Gas should go under 3 USD/MMBTU
(9 EUR/MWh)
 Is that possible? Better say what has
to be done to make it happen
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
 How to reduce the gas price?

LNG
LNG

LNG?

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 How to reduce the gas price?
 SEE gas hub?
 Market coupling?
 More exploration?

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Any other market for gas?
 Heating goes electric or district
heating, so gas has transitional future
only through cogeneration

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Any other market for gas?
 Heating goes electric or district
heating, so gas has transitional future
only through cogeneration
 Combined cycle 100 fuel
 45 units excess heat +
 55 units electricity -> HPCOP=6 2DHC = 330
units heat
 430 units heat * losses …
 Gas heating 100 fuel -> 100 units heat *
losses
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
 Any other market for gas?
 Transport (of personal cars and light
duty vehicles) goes electric
 Planes go biofuels
 Ships go LNG?
 Heavy duty vehicles? Maybe …

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

 Conclusions
 Wind and solar are coming, but difficult to
integrate
 Demission of base load. Natural gas and
hydro critical for transition. Gas transition
mainly in cogeneration
 Gas price has to go down … or carbon up
 Integration of power, heating, cooling,
water and transport system necessary
 Smart energy systems – cheap and
simple
 Great time for engineers!
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

Neven.Duic@fsb.hr
www.het.hr

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT