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Foresight

New Horizons:
Data from a Delphi Survey
in Support of Future European Union
Policies in Research and Innovation
New Horizons:
Data from a Delphi Survey in Support of European Union Future Policies in Research and Innovation

European Commission
Directorate-General for Research and Innovation
Directorate A — Policy Development and Coordination
Unit A.3 — Horizon 2020 Policy and Foresight
Contact Nikolaos Kastrinos
Nikolaos.kastrinos@ec.europa.eu
RTD-PUBLICATIONS@ec.europa.eu
European Commission
B-1049 Brussels

Manuscript completed in October 2017.


This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the views only of the authors, and the
Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.

More information on the European Union is available on the internet (http://europa.eu).

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2017

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION

New Horizons
Data from a Delphi Survey
in Support of European Union Future Policies
in Research and Innovation

Contract no. PP-03021-2015

Radu Gheorghiu, Bianca Dragomir, Liviu Andreescu, Kerstin Cuhls, Aaron


Rosa, Adrian Curaj and Matthias Weber

Directorate-General for Research and Innovation


2017 Horizon 2020

1
Foreword

Defining the goals of research and innovation policy necessitates thinking about the future. Not the
abstract concept of the future itself, but the future that is associated with our purposes, the future
we want, for ourselves and for the generations that follow.

In December 2016, Commissioner Moedas appointed a High Level Group on 'Maximising the impact
of EU Research and Innovation Programmes'. The group was chaired by Pascal Lamy and aimed to
develop a vision for the future of EU research and innovation policy. The group recommended a
mission-oriented, impact-focused approach to address global challenges and mobilise researchers,
innovators and other stakeholders to realise them. According to the group, 'over time, performance
in science and innovation will determine Europe’s place in the world and its capacity to boost the
kind of growth that is exemplified by the world’s 2030 agenda for sustainable development'.

The goals set by the 2030 agenda for sustainable development require important social, political and
economic transformations, which in turn require important contributions from research and
innovation. The BOHEMIA foresight study commissioned from an independent consortium of
leading institutions in the area of foresight, explored the broad R&I policy implications of such
transformation scenarios in its report published on 1 June 2017.

Building on that work, a Delphi survey asked experts for more detailed predictions and judgements
in relation to identified trends in science and technology, in society, and in policy. This publication
presents the data from the Delphi survey.

We are publishing these data because we think that this set of predictions by 727 experts in relation
to 147 statements about the future can be very useful to all those interested in making EU research
and innovation policy count. They provide the Commission services evidence that helps taking
European research and innovation policy forward. From the scenarios and the results of the Delphi
survey, the consortium will derive further analysis and policy recommendations to support the
preparation of the research and innovation framework programme post 2020. These policy
recommendations are expected to be published in early 2018.

We make the data from the Delphi survey available to all in the spirit of openness championed by
Commissioner Moedas.

Kurt Vandenberghe,
Director
Policy Development and Coordination
Research and Innovatio

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Contents

1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 4
2. The Delphi survey in context..................................................................................................................... 4
The Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) method ................................................................................. 5
The Delphi statements and the arguments .............................................................................................. 5
Participation in the consultation............................................................................................................... 6
The population of respondents ................................................................................................................ 7
3. The user experience ................................................................................................................................ 11
4. Detailed Delphi results per statement .................................................................................................... 17
4.1 Statements on S&T developments ................................................................................................... 17
1. Agriculture and Food....................................................................................................................... 18
2. Energy ............................................................................................................................................. 47
3. Environment: Bioeconomy, Resources & Decarbonisation ............................................................ 66
4. Health: Treatments, Cures, Medical Devices .................................................................................. 85
5. Information, Communication, Brain & Media Technologies ........................................................ 113
6. Manufacturing: Production Processes, Materials & Nanotechnology.......................................... 141
7. Robotics & Autonomous Machines............................................................................................... 165
8. Transport & Mobility ..................................................................................................................... 179
9. Security.......................................................................................................................................... 189
4.2 Statements on the R&I policy environment ................................................................................... 202
10. Economy: Sharing, Growth, Sustainability .................................................................................. 203
11. Education & Skills ........................................................................................................................ 217
12. Longevity & the Health System ................................................................................................... 231
13. Natural Environment, Climate Change & Oceans ....................................................................... 249
14. Society, Culture, Digitalization & Governance ............................................................................ 267
15. R&I Practices ............................................................................................................................... 291
16. Working Conditions & Employment ........................................................................................... 323

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1. Introduction

This report presents the data of the Delphi survey of the BOHEMIA (Beyond the Horizon:
foresight in support of future EU Research and Innovation Policy) project. It positions the
survey in the structure of the project, describes the survey instrument, and provides the
demographic data of the questionnaire respondents.

2. The Delphi survey in context

The foresight study Beyond the Horizon: foresight in support of future EU Research and Innovation
Policy (BOHEMIA) aims to support the deliberations on future Commission proposals for a post-2020
Research and Innovation Framework.

The BOHEMIA study involves three phases:

Phase 1: A literature review and synthesis into a set of scenarios that aim to sketch possible future
settings and boundary conditions for the development of future R&I policy and funding.1

Phase 2: A Delphi survey to gain new insights into future technologies, societal issues, and R&I
practices. This publication presents the dataset of the Delphi survey.

Phase 3: Analysis and the deriving of policy recommendations, building on the scenarios, the results
of the Delphi and on consultation and public engagement with the findings.

The Delphi survey contained 147 statements. The statements concerned future states of affairs of
presumed relevance for Europe. Respondents were asked to estimate the time of realization and
significance.

The time of realization was estimated in 5 year intervals from 2025 to 2040. As regards significance
there were two types of statements:

a) statements for which the significance referred to the importance of R&I for the realization of the
statement; and

b) statements for which the significance referred to the importance of the statement for EU R&I
policy.

The statements were split into several ‘fields of knowledge’. Each judgement was accompanied by
arguments. The method used was the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi method.

1
See Ricci, A, C Cessa, M Weber with P Schaper-Rinkel, and S Giesecke (2017) New horizons: Future
scenarios for research & innovation policies in Europe; European Commission, OPOCE Luxembourg
https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/b2d78a84-3aae-11e7-a08e-
01aa75ed71a1/language-en

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The Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) method

Dynamic Argumentative Delphi builds on the benefits of real-time Delphi and was already
successfully tested in previous projects.2 The goal is to enable online Delphi consultations with a
large number of participants (in the hundreds or more), while retaining the interactive
‘argumentative’ (i.e., justification-based) nature of the traditional Delphi. Since the processing of
respondent arguments typically entails a lot of manual effort during several rounds (being thus the
main barrier to extending the number of participants), DAD has automated this process by
introducing a few simple rules:

 Each quantitatively evaluated Delphi statement (e.g., on probability, impact etc.) is associated in
the online questionnaire with 2-3 ‘starter’ arguments which (together with all arguments added
subsequently by respondents) are always visible to participants. The expanding set of arguments
serves, as in traditional Delphi formats, as justifications for the quantitative estimates.
 Respondents are invited to enter their quantitative estimate and justify it by selecting at least
one pre-existing argument, or providing at least one new argument, or both. The maximum
number of arguments that may be added / selected by any individual respondent is usually
limited to two or three.
 The list and frequency of arguments, updated with the newly selected / introduced ones, is
always visible to subsequent respondents. The arguments in the list are ranked by the number of
votes gathered during the exercise (usually explicit in brackets). Unlike the constantly updating
list of arguments, the quantitative estimates are visible only to the individual participant making
them.

As a result, the number of participants can be increased substantially without a proportionate


addition of manual processing effort. The benefits of the traditional Delphi format are retained.
Respondents reflect on the justifications for their quantitative estimate before introducing them.
They do so by consulting previous respondents’ arguments, hence ensuring a measure of inter-
subjectivity in the exercise. Participants may – and, indeed, are encouraged to – return to the online
questionnaire to consult the updated lists of arguments and to revise their judgements and
arguments in their light.

The Delphi statements and the arguments

The BOHEMIA Delphi statements were not meant to provide a broad overview of ‘all things to come’
but, rather, to focus the consultation on research and innovation (R&I) issues – in science and
technology, societal issues, and R&I practices – relevant for the coming Framework Programme.

2
Specifically, in three large-scale consultations in Romania: the consultations supporting the elaboration of the Vision for
Romanian Higher Education 2025 (year 2012, 1000+ respondents, www.edu2025.ro); smart specialization in Romania (year
2014, 4000+ respondents, www.cdi2020.ro); the prioritization of policies for the National Strategy for the Consolidation of
Public Administration (year 2014, 400+ respondents).

5
The statements and starting arguments were elaborated based on several sources (also see the
workflow figure above):

 scanning of internet and literature (e.g., Web of Science);


 project meta-scenarios;
 media analysis;
 internal consortium workshop (which took place in May 2016 and aimed to pre-cluster the topics
from the scanning phase and from other sources);
 interviews3 (statements proposed by ‘generalists’ and ‘experts’).

The statements were further refined, backed up with literature, and formulated as single, short
sentences. They were discussed, enhanced and reformulated in a Scoping Workshop with the
Strategic Foresight Expert Group and Foresight Correspondents’ Network.4 During this event, the
statements were grouped according to ‘field of knowledge’ to which they were associated (see
introduction to Part II for additional details on grouping). Subsequently, the statements went
through several additional waves of improvement, feedback, updating via literature and short
interviews, and interaction with the Commission.

Participation in the consultation

The identification and selection of potential participants started early on in the project. The main
criterion in participant selection was ‘expertise’, broadly defined as having a sufficient level of
knowledge about a ‘field’ in the survey, i.e., the ability to assess (almost) any specific statement in
said field. Thus, experts were identified according to the substance and structure of statements and
their clustering into fields.

It should be noted that this broad definition of expertise is common in Delphi designs, which sample
from among ‘specialists’ with niche expertise, as well as from among ‘generalists’ with an interest in
a broader area. As the statements changed during the formulation process, the selection of new
experts went on until the survey was officially launched.

The experts asked to participate in the Delphi survey were identified in various stages of the project
and added to the email database until the time the survey went live.

3
The interviews were conducted with 40 experts and stakeholders external to the European Institutions, mainly
international foresight and strategy experts (but also researchers, engineers, and scholars, as well as representatives of the
European institutions, Member States’ foresight institutions, research funding agencies, academies, and relevant European
non-governmental organizations), based on an open, semi-standardized interview guideline (for face-to-face, phone,
Skype, e-mail or written interaction). In addition, the members of the Foresight Correspondents’ Network were strongly
involved through discussions, workshops, and by providing literature and research. The aims of the interviews were to
identify the most important areas to be covered by the Delphi survey, to formulate a draft set of Delphi statements for the
questionnaire, and to establish a draft list of experts to be involved in the Delphi survey. Three types of interviews were
performed in order to: (i) define the fields and areas that need to be covered, (ii) identify new/ additional issues and
statements to be included into the Delphi survey, and (iii) verify the statements and arguments, their focus, and their
formulation. An iterative approach was used, in which respondents built on previous suggestions in order to considerably
improve the quality of the results.
4
The workshop took place on November 30, 2016, in Brussels.

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 The first groups identified consisted of experts listed in existing databases available to consortium
members (e.g., individuals who participated in previous Delphi or other surveys), whose
competences and areas of knowledge were known, and who were familiar with this survey logic.
 Secondly, we screened for existing data bases (e.g., issue- or sector-specific) based on the initial
content of each field. Experts from all over Europe were sought to the extent to which their
coordinates were publicly available, so as to comply with the data regulations of the European
Union.5
 Thirdly, we searched for conferences on specific issues and for individual experts using semantic
analysis and web mining tools. In the Web of Science, keywords were used to search through
scientific journal articles – and the authors identified were also asked to participate.
 The fourth step was a small co-nomination or snowball sampling process, asking a limited number
of identified experts if they knew others who should be involved. The members of the former
European Foresight Platform6 were also invited.

Altogether, the plan was to address about 15,000 persons from all over the world so as to ensure a
turnout of at least 500 respondents. The target threshold for experts based outside Europe, whose
input was considered necessary among others to avoid a ‘European bias, was set at 10%. In order to
include the views of ‘informed outsiders’ on the topics at hand, we also targeted directly science
journalists, writers on science blogs, as well as members of European students’ organizations,
doctoral students in broader research areas, persons from Young Researcher Programs, and a mixed
sample of students from universities.

The population of respondents

The survey went live on 5 May 2017. It closed on 18 June 2017, after the original deadline (2 June)
was extended on two occasions. Invitations were sent to approximately 15,500 persons, with
reminders dispatched to relevant subgroups (function of completion status and degree) on 18 May,
1 June, and 12 June.

Eventually, the preset figure of respondents was exceeded by a substantial margin (by almost two
thirds if one considers all those who fully completed at least one field). More than 10% of the
participants came from a country outside the EU. A comparatively larger number of participants
came from the countries in the consortium (Austria, Germany, Italy, Romania); the Netherlands and
the UK, among others, are also well represented. Below is a summary of the participation statistics:

 1488 users registered on the platform; of whom


 820 finished filling in the questionnaire for at least one field of knowledge;
 727 users went through the whole survey once, completing one or more fields of knowledge (up
to 3) as well as their profile page;
 133 of the latter category revisited the survey to consult the distribution of scores and an
updated list of arguments in their field(s) and to potentially revise their own initial input.

5
There were cases in which the expert was identified but the country of residence and, in some cases, even the gender,
were not available.

6
www.foresight-platform.eu/

7
The charts below provide some additional statistics on participation:

Fig. 2: Distribution of respondents by country

As the previous paragraph suggests, there was an interest in achieving adequate representation for
all age bands among respondents. This was complemented by an effort to have a fair gender
balance.

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Fig. 3: Distribution of respondents by gender

Fig. 4: Distribution of respondents by age

Fig. 5: Distribution of respondents by sector of activity

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Fig. 6: Distribution of respondents by field in Science and Technology Developments

Fig. 7: Distribution of respondents by field in Developments in Society and R&I Practices

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3. The user experience

The Delphi questionnaire was designed, in line with the DAD method introduced previously, to meet
the key objectives of the consultation. It was also set up to maximize users’ ease of navigation and
engagement through the filling in process.

Respondents were invited by the project team, in a letter sent via email, to participate in the
BOHEMIA consultations. Specifically, they were asked to visit the survey website (bohemia-
consultation.eu) and create a personal account (essentially, provide an email address), one purpose
of which was to allow them to enter and exit the survey at will. After the registration step was
complete, participants received an email with a personalized link to the questionnaire.

On accessing the questionnaire, the participant was asked to choose, based on her or his expertise
and interests, one among a number of fields under which the Delphi statements were clustered.
(Fields of knowledge are grouped under two large classes: S&T developments and R&I policy
statements.) They were also invited to return, at any point after completing the first field, to select
additional fields (for a maximum of three).

Fig. 8: Selecting a field of expertise (statements in the S&T Developments class)

After selecting the field(s), the user was provided with the first Delphi statement to be evaluated. A
single statement was accessible per browser page. After the tasks on the page were completed, the
respondent was able to move on to the next page/statement – and so on until all statements under
the selected field were tackled. On the upper half of the page, the statement was visible in bold
orange letters, with the option to skip it right below – if the respondent felt insufficiently

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knowledgeable to address it. (In case the participant selected this option, the rest of the page was
greyed out and the user was able proceed to the next statement immediately.)

Below the Delphi statement, the respondent was invited to estimate the statement’s ‘Time of
realization’, to which end s/he had to select any of the pre-established options from a dropdown list.
These are:

 2025
 2030
 2035
 2040
 Beyond 2040
 Never
 Don’t know

After the evaluation (selection of a value), the respondent was asked to support his or her
assessment with arguments, either picked from a list of already existing arguments (as per DAD
method detailed in the previous section), or newly added by her/himself. The arguments already on
the page could be (de)selected via a click; the new ones had to be written in a field and could be
subsequently edited and removed.

Fig. 9: Estimating the time of realization for Delphi statements

On the lower half of the page, the participant was asked to evaluate the significance of R&I for the
realization of the statement. The rating system (1 to 5 stars) was clarified briefly. Again, the
respondent is invited to provide a justification for the assessment by selecting or adding arguments.

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Note that, unless the respondent fulfilled the requests (i.e., makes the assessments and selects or
introduces the requisite number of arguments), s/he was not able to proceed further: on clicking
Next, s/he was confronted with a warning message asking her/him to finalize all items.

Fig. 10: Assessing the significance

Note: For the class of statements in the image above, the significance assessed is that of ‘R&I for the realization of the
statement’. The task is different for the second class of statements.

After finishing with an individual Delphi statement, the respondent could move through all the
statements associated to the field s/he selected. S/he was then invited to select another field, upon
which the procedure was repeated up to a maximum of three fields.

When the participant finished the field’s statements, s/he was further invited to access the
questionnaire for a second time, in order to examine previous participants’ assessments (specifically,
the distribution of scores); and, possibly, to revise theirs in light of the new information. Access to
the new section of the questionnaire was open immediately – but could be delayed at the
participant’s will – if at least 15 respondents answered previously. When this was not the case,
participants were informed that they would be invited to do so at a later date, after this critical
number is reached.

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Fig. 11: Revisiting the survey

After re-accessing the questionnaire, the greyed-out background of the page showed a message on
top, briefly explaining the contents of the new page and the new tasks.

Fig. 12: Revising the statements

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Fig. 13: The table of distributions

As in the figure above, the user consulted on the upper part of the page the statement and the
distribution of responses (orange bars and corresponding figures are the values not selected by the
user; the blue bar is used to mark out the user’s previous option). The participant was invited to keep
or revise his or her original evaluation of the time of realization, as well as previous arguments
(which may not be deleted, but may be deselected; new arguments may be added).

After completing the first or second round of the questionnaire, the respondents were taken to a
section of the questionnaire where they were asked to fill in information on their ‘profiles’. The data
concerned expertise and individual demographics. On the expertise profile page, participants could
also input short comments on the BOHEMIA consultation.

Fig. 14: Page with expertise profile

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Fig. 15. Demographic data

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4. Detailed Delphi results per statement

4.1 Statements on S&T developments

Fields

Agriculture and Food

Energy

Environment: Bioeconomy, Resources & Decarbonisation

Health: Treatments, Cures, Medical Devices

Information, Communication, Brain & Media Technologies

Manufacturing: Production Processes, Materials & Nanotechnology

Robotics & Autonomous Machines

Transport & Mobility

Security

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1. Agriculture and Food

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance of
Significance
1.1 Food from organic farming makes up 50% of 69 4.02 1.04 Uncertain
all food on the EU market.
1.2 Soilless farming has led to a 30% increase in 56 3.98 1.09 Uncertain
the EU’s food production capacity compared
to 2016.
1.3 Perennial crops (which are alive year-round 46 3.72 1.06 Uncertain
and are harvested multiple times before
dying) make up 30% of Europeans' calorie
intake from all crops (today they make up
15% at global level).
1.4 More than 50% of secondary EU food 62 3 1.56 Uncertain
production (in tons, including convenience
food) is strictly vegan.
1.5 More than 30% of all food on the EU market 60 3.05 1.98 Uncertain
is synthetic food.
1.6 Heritage or heirloom vegetables make up 49 3.11 1.52 Uncertain
20% or more of the vegetables in the EU
ecosystem.
1.7 Heritage or heirloom livestock makes up 45 3.15 1.54 Uncertain
20% or more of the livestock in the EU.
1.8 20 % of the area in EU cities with at least 50 55 3.2 1.09 Uncertain
000 inhabitants is used for urban and peri-
urban farming.
1.9 Synthetically designed bacteria are licensed 45 3.95 0.98 Uncertain
for use in food production in the EU (to
grow food in urban bioreactors or
microfermenters).
1.10 5 % or more of the production of food, 51 3.9 0.89 Uncertain
medicine and bio-energy in the EU is based
on algae.
1.11 More than 20% of all meat consumed in the 60 3.74 1.50 Uncertain
EU is 3D printed or lab-grown.
1.12 Artificial photosynthesis is applied to 45 3.79 1.75 Later
produce food for the first time.
1.13 Meat consumption in the EU has been 63 2.90 1.30 Later
reduced to half the 2016 figure.
1.14 Food waste in the EU has been reduced 62 3.79 1.53 Later
from 88 million tons (annually, data from
2013) to 10 million tons.

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1.1 Food from organic farming makes up 50% of all food on the EU market

Number of respondents: 65

Arguments for time of realization No. of votes


Organic is a temporary label, while the real issue is extensification and minimizing chemical
51
inputs to develop a sustainable supply system of food and environmental services.
Organic will be different by then. The sustainability challenges and consumer trends and
31
progress will mean its general circular and holistic idea will be more mainstream.
There are likely too many people to feed to rely solely on organic farming. 29

The rise of precision agriculture increases the efficiency of organic farming. 24


There have been too many health-related issues linked with intensive agriculture and too many
food scandals linked to long food chains, so that the majority of consumers want organic and 11
local food.
The advocacy of a type of food production on the basis of the arbitrary exclusion of certain
9
technologies is not in the long run sustainable.
Organic farming brings its own health hazards and risks that need to be addressed. 8
Organic will be part of an agroecological transition mobilizing ecological infrastructures,
6
reducing chemical inputs, and improving the mineral cycle of nutrients (relation livestock-crops).
The total organic farming area in the EU-28 increased by 21% in 2010-2015, reaching 11.1
5
million ha.
The number of organic producers increased by 23.5 % in 2010-2015, reaching 271 500. 4
Organic farming will need new monitoring tools to guarantee the quality and safety of such
3
products.
There are some negative health-related issues associated with organic food (fungi infections),
3
while the positive effects are rather related to health lifestyle of organic food consumer.
Organic and sustainable food is often more expensive than conventional food, the widening
gap between people who can afford such food and those who cannot will hinder an EU-wide 3
increase to 50%.
Organic will be part of an agroecological transition mobilizing ecological infrastructures,
3
reducing chemical inputs, and improving the mineral cycle of nutrients
It is on sustainable intensification of agricultural production and not on "organic" or
3
"conventional".

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Significance of R&I

Average: 4 Dispersion: 1.04

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I No. of votes

It needs more research on sustainable intensification 41

Regulation and control of "organic" labelling is essential. 21


The challenge is less in R&I and more in awareness of the 'side-effects' of intensive agriculture as
14
well as that it is dependent on a high level of energy input
We need to enhance the precision of genetic engineering technologies that can 'rewind' crops in a
9
way that would make organic farming more efficient.
Ecosystem engineering needs to be developed to enable greater organic self-management of
7
ecosystems that produce crops and agricultural products.
Precision, in-field smart sensor systems will be required to monitor and enable sustainability 6
It needs research on soil fertility and how to enhance it, agroforestry, coupling livestock and
5
agriculture, ecological infrastructures, on pulses and rotation of crops
Extensive bogs exist in Latvia and other N. European countries that could produce cranberries and
other products while significantly reducing CO2 emissions. Research needed to develop suitable 2
crops
Ecosystem engineering needs to be developed to enable greater organic self-management of
1
ecosystems that produce crops and agricultural products

20
1.2 Soilless farming has led to a 30% increase in the EU’s food production capacity compared to
2016

Number of respondents: 54

Arguments for time of realization No. of votes


Soilless farming is an interesting option for horticulture and protein alternatives (high-value
40
products), not for staples.
Soilless farming depends on high capital investment. Farmers (except for some high-value
16
products) are unlikely to be willing to incur such a financial risk.
Soilless farming that is not more demanding than usual farming on other scarce resources (e.g.
13
water or energy) needs time to be developed.
Urban farming will increase, and the best way to do this is by soilless farming 12
Soil salination and other soil problems will increase, and the reduction in areable land means
8
we need to develop alternatives.
'Soilless' farming does not alter the basic plant physiological challenge of capturing carbon
8
through photosynthesis, which determines the generation of the majority of food calories.
Soilless farming is no sustainable alternative, at most a small complement 8
At present, throughout the world, over 80% of the land that is suitable for raising crops is in
7
use.
"Food from laboratories" are not in high demand by consumers. They prefer food from (idyllic /
7
idealized) farms.
Vertical farming in smart buildings can provide food crops while contributing to air quality in
4
buildings and activities / work for urban dwellers.
Soilless farming is nonsense, it cannot be more efficient than soil. We must rather use soil
3
more efficiently.
With increasing desertification and competition for land (housing, infrastructure, etc.) new
1
alternatives to soil are required.

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Significance of R&I

Average: 3.91 Dispersion: 1.22

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research is needed for soilless farming that is not as demanding on scarce resources (e.g. water or
34
energy) as usual farming.
Technologies are needed to make use of any available land and agricultural area to feed the growing
22
populations - even if we in Europe cannot imagine it currently.
Research needs to search for new methods apart from traditional farming practices to maintain
15
farmers' livelihoods.
Impact of climate change, more storms, is likely to favor enclosed agriculture and soilless farming
7
that can grow crops with optimal nutrients and pest control year round.
Self-managing ecosystems that produce crops with minimal energy and pest control inputs need to
7
be explored in soilless farming as well as farming in soil.
Precision farming has a great future in soilless farming. Also pesticide control will be easier 6

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1.3 Perennial crops (which are alive year-round and are harvested multiple times before dying)
make up 30% of Europeans' calorie intake from all crops (today they make up 15% at global
level)

Number of respondents: 45

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Perennial crops require less intensive farming practices and less energy to grow than traditional
31
biofuel crops. They also reduce the probability of earth erosion.
Today, annual crops account for roughly 85% of the human population’s food calories and the vast
12
majority of planted croplands worldwide. (Landinstitute)
Europeans are becoming more health-conscious and thus reduce the calorie intake from meat. This
10
shift also affects the calorie-intake from all crops.
Perennial types of the current annual food crops such as wheat could be developed leading to a
9
dramatic increase in food production from perennials.
Crop rotation seems more relevant than perennial crops. 8
A more diverse selection of crops to grow (and grown in an area) will reduce losses due to plant
8
diseases and pests. Therefore a combination of annual and perennial crops is beneficial.
Polycultures are more sustainable, have greater CO2 uptake and can offer pest resistance and
5
multiple crops. Research is needed to develop such systems, including means to harvest.
Perennial crops are supporting a sustainable and climate change adapted food resilience. 3
Smart monitoring strategies and processing can deliver increased productivity while also minimising
3
waste within the production systems and waste out of the supply chain.
Less chemical residue ends up in the soil and less CO2 is produced. 3
Farmers would be less dependent on big companies which create dependencies by selling annual
3
plants.
Extensive production results in lower income. 2

23
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.72 Dispersion: 1.06


No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
There should be intensive research on technology allowing perennial crops to be grown and harvested.
As those perennial crops have little appeal to today's agribusiness big companies like Bayer/ 31
Monsanto, there won't be much research from this side.
Genetic development is needed for perennials to compete with the output of annual crops. 17
The agriculture market is dominated by US companies, which have no interest in diminishing their
11
returns with perennial crops. So this is primarily a policy challenge.
It would take a monetary commitment comparable to what the EU is now putting into developing biofuel
8
crops.
Advanced digital technologies encompassing nanotechnologies, smart sensors and information
6
systems will be needed to attain the aspired intensification.
The development of perennial crops are not related to any existing business: it is a novel area for
4
research, supporting future food resilience for feeding a world with a growing population.

24
1.4 More than 50% of secondary EU food production (in tons, including convenience food) is
strictly vegan

Number of respondents: 59

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Statement should rather speak of plant-based versus animal-based sources of calories and proteins.
49
Vegan and vegatarian are lifestyles.
Veganism might be on the rise, but it is still small. The share of vegetarians might well become
27
significant (but not the share of those eating strictly vegan).
The real issue is reducing the reliance on livestock-based foods at the population level. Strict
20
veganism does not effectively contribute to this. Excluding eggs and dairy is a huge constraint.
Many agricultural areas are much better suited for animal than for plant production, e.g. mountain or
6
some grassland areas. It would be a waste not to use such areas anymore.
The number of vegans in UK has risen by 360 % in the past decade, and it’s a trend driven by the
6
young: a fifth of 16 to 24 year-olds don’t eat meat.
Vegetarian and vegan products are recording notable increases in turnover: by 122 per cent in 2015
for alternatives to meat and sausages in Germany (Nielsen); by 51 per cent per year 2011-2013 for 5
alternatives to dairy, in the UK (Mintel).
There is a confusion in the statement: vegan refers to eating style and vegetal production refers to
5
what is produced. Non-vegan people also consume plant-based foods.
Food supplements that are needed to keep vegans in good health turn out to be more expensive and
4
will have bigger negative environmental impact than meat consumption. This mood will pass.
Mass keeping of animals produces about as much climate harming gases as does the transport
sector, is responsible for about half of agricultural crops and thus land use, and is therefore not 3
sustainable.
In 2017 the first fully vegan supermarket chain is shutting down some German stores. 3
Results about the intellectual, emotional and cultural achievements of animals are going to be diffused
2
widely, making it impossible to use them for human food production.
Cost will be the greatest factor in determining demand, but taste must be right for food to sell. 2
Humans are not suited to survive on plant-based food only: vegetarians and especially vegans need
1
supplements to stay healthy.

25
Significance of R&I

1.56
Average: 3 Dispersion:
No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research is needed into policies that transform diets to mainly plant-based 22
Behavioural research is needed on how entire populations can be convinced to live a vegan or
19
vegetarian lifestyle.
A taste test of a burger made of lab-raised cultured beef qualified it as close to actual meat. It's not a
12
matter of research but of convincing public opinion.
This is a case of social innovation 7
Total cost pricing that includes environmental and health risk costs can reduce demand for meat but
5
establishing cost levels requires research and monitoring.
since animal based will be too expensive, plant based will prevail anyway for consumers; research is
3
needed to keep people healthy with supplements

26
1.5 More than 30% of all food on the EU market is synthetic food

Number of respondents: 57

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Need definition of synthetic food. 43
Trust has to be built - there are many people who think that artificial (synthetic) food additives have a
22
negative effect on human health. They will not buy synthetic food.
Consumers require a notion of food being natural, and naturalness is more and more appreciated and
13
paid for (in developed countries at least).
Population growth leaves no other option (if synthetic includes, for example, "chicken wings" made
8
from cockroaches and broccoli from algae).
In 2011, a global poll of 5,000 people by consumer researcher company Nielsen found that 92%
6
worry about artificial coloring agents and 78% are willing to pay a premium for natural alternatives.
The current trend is the developement of ultra-processed foods. These food processing techniques
5
have strong negative impacts on health (obesity, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes).
Synthetic food offers a way to provide nutritionally balanced sustenance to a much larger population
5
than conventional agriculture. May be necessary with climate change.
Technologically plausible scenarios can be constructed, but compelling drivers are not present to
4
make this happen in the EU. Natural foods are relatively cheap, wholesome.
Agriculture Lobby is really strong. 1
Convenient food is often synthetic - as people have no time, are lazy or do not know how to cook,
1
they will more and more rely on synthetic food.

27
Significance of R&I

Average: 2.93 Dispersion: 2.01

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Natural and alternative health advocates have long claimed that artificial (synthetic) food additives
have a negative effect on human health, so research has to prove otherwise and communicate it 21
findings widely.
need definition 17

'Synthesising' food does not in itself change resource demands 9

Research should assess the environmental and health impacts of synthetic foods. 8
Food can in principle be manufactured to provide nutrients in a tasty form at lower cost and
4
environmental impact than conventional farming. Research is needed so 10 billion can be fed.
The EU may need to develop synthetic food technology to enable rapidly growing regions like Africa
4
to feed their people and reduce migration to Europe.
Synthetic food has the potential to address mostly low income markets, but with a huge number of
3
customers.
A mix of policy and social acceptance will be needed based on the objectives of sustainability, food
3
security and safety
Synthetic food has the potential to address mostly low income markets, not EU markets, so there is
1
little for R&I to be done here.
Potential threats like die-off of bees, or bio-warfare or climate change make it imperative to develop
1
synthetic food technologies for food security.

28
1.6 Heritage or heirloom vegetables make up 20% or more of the vegetables in the EU
ecosystem

Number of respondents: 47

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
For a category of consumers interested in healthy eating, heritage vegetables may be an interesting
33
niche market.
Heirloom varieties help strengthen small holder agriculture linked to the rediscovery of territory,
27
agritourism and promotion of local food culture & identity.
Some older plant strains are assumed to be more healthy and contain more minerals or vitamins.
20
They might be the first on the market.
Diversity-seeking behaviour increases the demand for 'different' vegetables, thus increases the
15
demand for heirloom varieties.
The question is not clear: what is 20% of the EU ecosystem? 7
Heirloom vegetables, although adapted to local environments, tend to ripen at different stages, can't
2
all be harvested at once, so are unsuitable for mass Agrifood.
Heritage and heirloom vegetables can be used as genetic resources for broadening the genetic
2
diversity of modern vegetables.
Heirloom vegetables are rather having a nostalgic and cultural connotation. Nothing to do with food
2
resilience... No sufficient yield for feeding the world. And... our taste changed!

29
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.16 Dispersion: 1.61


No.
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I of
votes
Biodiversity must be integrated into the development and implementation of other policies. 41
The exchange of seed needs to be promoted and enabled (it is currently illegal to buy or sell seed
24
of some heirloom varieties)
European Agricultural Policies need to appreciate the quality of crop production in terms of
22
contribution to crop diversification for sustainable agro-ecosystems and healthy food systems
The EU Biodiversity Strategy 2020 needs to expand to better address this issue. 12
The question is not clear 5

30
1.7 Heritage or heirloom livestock makes up 20% or more of the livestock in the EU

Number of respondents: 42

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
For a category of consumers interested in healthy eating this may be an interesting niche market. 27
Heirloom livestock can be appealing to farmers faced with environmental challenges and inbreeding
26
problems.
Heritage livestock is only compatible with extensive production systems (they do not grow as fast, do
13
not comply with market requirements regarding fat, etc.). Yet, there are fewer and fewer farms...
For consumers interested in animal welfare and "less but better" animal products this will be of
9
interest.
Heritage livestock farming has to be promoted also financially. 5
By 2020, there must be a measurable improvement, compared to the EU2010 baseline, in the
5
conservation of species and habitats.
Such livestock can be regarded as extensions to the genepool and so they do not need to account for
3
such a large proportion of the livestock population.
Precision Livestock Farming can help this trend since consumers will get all information related to the
2
animal product.
Heirloom livestock is not efficient enough to contribute feeding the world. 1

European farmers cannot get an acceptable income from heirloom livestock. 1

31
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.18 Dispersion: 1.58

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
We need policies that enable the maintenance of small-scale, extensive farming. They are those most
33
likely to keep heritage breeds.
The EU Biodiversity Strategy 2020 needs to expand to better address this issue. 19
Whether it is by genetic engineering or by breeding, research on sustainable and profitable heirloom
10
livestock farming is needed.
Heirloom breeds need to be sustained for genetic diversity requiring research and policies to enable
4
farms that raise these animals to be economically viable.
unclear why heirloom livestock farming is relevant in EU agriculture context since its role to feed the
3
population will be marginal
R&I is very important to get his realized in commercial farms in Europe 3

32
1.8 20 % of the area in EU cities with at least 50 000 inhabitants is used for urban and peri-
urban farming

Number of respondents: 53

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Urban and periurban gardening can contribute to more food security worldwide, as studies prove. 29
There are too many competing uses for space in EU cities (many of these uses will be seen as more
25
'important' than farming/gardening)
Urban and periurban gardening contribute to a sustainable, post-fossil society. 24
Horticulture and greenhouses are already typically located in peri-urban regions, and the trend may
16
be enhanced by local food movement and soilless farming.
Proper calculations are needed: even though large areas of a city are used for gardening, a very tiny
9
part of the protein and energy needs of the population can be fulfilled due to population density.
Significant formerly industrial properties will be converted to urban gardening by part-time farmers
3
leasing the land from local jurisdictions or as members of gardening associations.
The area of cities is not defined - peri-urban farming is not in the city, it is near it. 3
Urban farming could nicely be integrated within flats and skyscrapers, and even combined with
3
hydrophonics.
Farming/gardening in cities will occupy green space for private purposes that otherwise would have
2
been accessible to all citizens.
Urban farming can be used as an educational concept for citizens in order to connect them to the
1
issues of agriculture and food production.

33
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.22 Dispersion: 1.30

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Policies for the Circular Economy for using empty buildings and spaces for urban and periurban
32
gardening are needed.
part of trend is high tech and part low tech and part of socio-cultural trend 26
A more inclusive strategy for achieving sustainability is needed, going beyond a narrow focus on
19
agriculture and poverty reduction.
Smart combinations of already existing technologies needed, more development and maturation than
9
pure "R&I"
More important to channel R&I towards sustainable production systems on the countryside. 6
Research needed on how urban farming contributes to less transport and higher availability of freshly
2
harvested food in urban areas.
Gardening is a physical activity with a social component that can make a positive contribution to
2
health of communities, teach young people sustainability and local self-reliance.
Land use planning, policies to develop urban food value chains and urban food procurement (for
1
schools for ex) are needed.

34
1.9 Synthetically designed bacteria are licensed for use in food production in the EU (to grow
food in urban bioreactors or microfermenters)

Number of respondents: 42

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The use of "Designer organisms" in food production will face unprecedented opposition (for example,
30
despite definitive evidence available for a while, GMOs are still not free of such opposition).
Particularly for a specific food component, additives. 17
The state of affairs in the statement will probably be true of sewage treatment and similar uses, but
10
not of food.
Due to increased need for food, the opinions on GMO will change. 9
Synthetic biology can potentially produce fuels, nutrients for growing food, food additives,
5
pharmaceuticals and specialty chemicals, but mass production of food end products faces barriers.
So far, the only available synthetic bacterium does nothing more than live and replicate - and even
4
that only after years of trial and error attempts.
Dangers of rapid bacterial evolution creating unprecedented threats requires extensive, systemic
2
research.
Synthetic biology is likely to be required to produce the variety of foods required for long duration
2
space missions with no re-supply from Earth. Such technology may transfer to Earth use.

35
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.95 Dispersion: 0.96

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Impact on health will probably be the main field of research. 30

A lot remains unknown about the role of specific genes in bacteria. 17

Fairly dependent on societal acceptance 14

it is a niche for special foods eg to deal with allergies 11

Niche for designing special growth environments. 2

Space applications have the greatest near term demand for such technology. 1
Ecological engineering may widen use of such products but complex systems will need to be
1
modeled. Insufficient to just produce the organism that can produce then outputs.
Required for long duration space missions may transfer to Earth use to fully realize recycling. 1

36
1.10 5 % or more of the production of food, medicine and bio-energy in the EU is based on
algae

Number of respondents: 50

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Industrial-scale demonstrations of sustainable algae cultures for biofuel production are
40
available.
Algae research gives hope for renewable carbon-negative source of food and
29
medicines.
Growing algae for food and biofuel contributes to the reduction of greenhouse
22
emissions.
There are still simpler alternatives and options within the current land-based food
8
system.

37
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.86 Dispersion: 0.96

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
There is need for further research on the manufacture of bio-compounds from microalgae with
44
applications in food production.
New research may exploit the ability of algae to produce lipids using energy from photosynthesis. 31

research on algal growth conditions and on which variety to use for which purpose is still required 15

Further research on bio-refinery of algae and consumer acceptance of algal products is required. 4

38
1.11 More than 20% of all meat consumed in the EU is 3D printed or lab-grown

Number of respondents: 58

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
There is no real demand. 39
We love to see what is technically feasible, and it might be 'fun' to eat (like an exotic fruit), but for
22
everyday consumption, people prefer the diversity, nuance and complexity of 'real' food.
There are several fears associated with the use of such technology, including growth-promoting
17
anabolic agents and genetically modified organisms.
Acceptance will be an issue. 12
This will be technically feasible, soon: People can now make meat in their own homes due to a
11
conceptual prototype for a countertop 3D printer.
Dutch scientists are working on bringing the first completely lab-grown meat products to the market
7
by the year 2020.
Why use 3D printing if you can have the real stuff? 6
Fast food printers "baking" from paste tubes (made of algae and bugs and with variety of tastes and
4
textures) is quite feasible.
If the need for food is high enough because of population size, and if the supply of real meat is not
4
sufficient, and too expensive, demand will increase
Great solution for long duration space missions. Early adopters from tech oriented people thinkable
1
on Earth.
Solution to create large variety of foods with different taste, texture and appearance without reliance
1
on global sources where spoilage is huge cost.

39
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.68 Dispersion: 1.56

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Soft food with specific and sustainable nutrients for people with different diseases will require new
26
regulations.
Research needs to find a way to develop lab-grown meat at affordable cost. 19

Life-cycle analyses needs to show the advantages before large scale production can be interesting. 10

Cooperation between researchers and chefs is needed to develop tasty "printing paste" 8
Offers a pathway to food as medicine to enable consumption of specific nutrients to stay healthy
3
precisely printed in the food with no spoilage.
Great advantage for long duration space missions. 2

40
1.12 Artificial photosynthesis is applied to produce food for the first time

Number of respondents: 41

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Most of the scientific (and financial) effort in artificial photosynthesis will be directed to fuel production
30
rather than directly to food production.
A nice challenge for scientists who want to see what is possible. So yes, they will produce food for the
23
first time, in the lab. It will lead to some publications and sci-fi, but not reach markets.
Introduction of new technologies into agriculture will be subject to a lot of lobbying. 10
Artificial photosynthesis may be a better alternative than carbon sequestration for CO2 from
3
powerplants to produce inputs to food production.
Introduction of new technologies into agriculture will be subject to a lot of scare-mongering. 3

Important technology for long duration space flight. 1


Scientists with the US Department of Energy and UC Berkley made a breakthrough in 2015 by
1
creating a system that synthesizes carbon dioxide and water into acetate.

41
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.76 Dispersion: 1.76

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
It is a scientific challenge (and might be used in space missions). But we have enough natural
27
photosynthesis to produce food. So why spend scarce research money on this?
Artificial photosynthesis could turn out as a key technology with many yet unforeseen applications 20
Genetic engineering research on cyanobacteria should continue to focus on increasing their
9
photosynthetic efficiency.
We need studies on the safety of lab-to-field transfer of cyanobacteria-based technologies. 4

Necessary for long duration space missions whose development can be transferred to Earth use. 1

42
1.13 Meat consumption in the EU has been reduced to half the 2016 figure

Number of respondents: 61

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
More people are turning vegetarian (not vegan) because there are too many food scandals, and due
27
to raising awareness of the negative health impact of too high meat consumption.
A 50% reduction at the population level does not require veganism and all its constraints - it only
25
requires moderation and alignment to current public health guidelines.
The social movement for animals' rights is increasing. 20
More people are turning to a vegan diet because of contamination scandals and concerns about the
17
effect of agriculture on climate change.
Cost of meat production will reduce consumption. 16
Large studies in England and Germany have shown that vegetarians are about 40% less likely to
8
develop cancer compared to meat-eaters.
Health problems that are developed because of absence of meat in diet will become evident within
20-30 years (aging vegans and their children). Real cost and impact of food supplements is 5
calculated.
Artificial meat will become available before meat consumption reduces to this level. 5

Only in some countries is there indeed a slow decreasing trend. 4

How much of this decline is due to the decreased EU population? 1

43
Significance of R&I

Average: 2.85 Dispersion: 1.47

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
It is less an issue of R&I than of policy and awareness raising. 36
develop options to change consumer preferences for meat: decreasing meat consumption is a major
measure to create a less resource demanding food system, while people in the EU overconsume 28
animal protein
Sustainability and ethical production is to be considered for both, meat and plant based foods
21
(rethinking current intensive animal farming, and deforestation for palm oil production)
There is a market opportunity for meat substitutes, so all we need is the R&I to make them convincing
16
enough (tasty, accessible etc.) to buyers.
Long-term impact of vegetarian (and vegan) diet should be studied to show if there is "only" positive
8
effects as we think today. It is not only a question of number of calories.
The worldwide demand for animal products will unfortunately increase with 75 % by 2050 and the use
6
of animal products of European consumers has no big effect on this.
Science may find solutions to the pollution generated by manure, and render meat consumption less
4
of an issue.
social sciences, such as behavioural, social psychological studies are needed 2

More research is needed on producing in vitro meat. 2

44
1.14 Food waste in the EU has been reduced from 88 million tons (annually, data from 2013) to
10 million tons

Number of respondents: 59

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
It appeals to the average consumer and supermarkes take the lead. 32
The increasingly scarce natural resources and rising food prices will make it economically viable to
26
invest in byproduct usage and the avoidance of food waste.
Food waste in the EU costs an estimated 143 billion Euros ($153 billion) per year, which could feed
22
the 55 million people living in food poverty in Europe more than nine times over.
The production and disposal of EU food waste leads to the emission of 170 million tonnes of carbon
10
dioxide, which accelerates global climate change.
This reduction is far too ambitious, reducing food waste by 50% would already be a huge
9
achievement.
There is a definition issue here: what is food waste. In former times there was little or no food 'waste'
5
even though quite a lot of the food purchased was not eaten by the people purchasing it.
It is time to also sell the fruit and vegetables that is larger, smaller or differently shaped in
5
supermarkets, and not have the growers throw this away.
Africa and Asia have food waste in the first part of the food chain, which might give a chance to
3
added value of co- and by-products.
The cost of food waste is an argument for local production and local synthesis of food. 1

This reduction is too expensive and is not economically reasonable. 1

Plant Breeding for vegetables with longer shelf life could reduce food waste. 1

Plants with better disease resistance can reduce pre-harvest losses and with that avoid waste. 1

45
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.75 Dispersion: 1.54

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The EU target is set to halve per capita food waste at the retail and consumer level by 2030 - this
36
needs to be made possible by research though.
Cheap food means there is a reduced penalty for waste. The more it costs the less likely you are to
20
waste it.
Research into valorisation of food waste can be a key driver here 17

More research on the connection between food waste and climate change is necessary. 9
Investment in new digital technologies such as smart monitoring strategies and processing of
6
byproducts is needed to take out waste from the supply chain.
we need to develop more ways of using odd-shaped vegetables 5

We need to reassess and better understand what happens and can happen to food that is not eaten. 4

Innovative logistics to reduce food waste must be tailored to optimize the current logistics. 3
Technologies and methods to eliminate food waste are necessary in long duration space missions
1
and can be transferred to Earth use.
Investments in plant science and new technologies for plant breeding are needed 1

46
2. Energy

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance of
Significance
2.1 The EU produces 50% of its electricity for 94 4.07 0.65 Later
transport, housing and industry from
renewable sources.
2.2 80% of all building surfaces in the EU that 86 3.71 0.91 Later
are exposed to sunlight are used for power
generation.
2.3 Electric energy storage systems for trucks 68 3.97 1.22 Uncertain
(more than 10 tons) that allow transport
over distances of more than 500 km with
one charge are available in every EU
country.
2.4 Solar thermal power plant electricity 76 3.40 1.32 Never
generation is available in every EU country.
2.5 For the first time, bacteria are able to 47 3.90 1.35 Uncertain
produce carbon-free hydrogen fuel.
2.6 Energy harnessed from the human body is 49 3.60 1.92 Uncertain
used in applications such as heart
pacemakers, organ or brain implants.
2.7 Paintable solar energy cells, enabled by 62 4.05 1.00 Uncertain
nanomaterials, are used for the first time on
the roof of a large building (more than
100m2) in the EU to harvest electricity.
2.8 Solar water-splitting technology is used in 58 3.78 1.17 Uncertain
the industrial and commercial sectors across
the EU to store the energy from the sun.
2.9 A hydrogen infrastructure in Europe has 64 3.36 1.12 Uncertain
been built up and is in use.

47
2.1 The EU produces 50% of its electricity for transport, housing and industry from renewable
sources

Number of respondents: 92
No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
A strong learning curve of energy storage options and smart energy solutions helps to deal with the
78
volatility of the intermittent generation of renewables.
The price of solar per Watt has almost halved between 2010-2015, and continues to fall. 41
The need for energy security is pushing Europe in this direction. 23
Renewables have their own environmental problems. 23
Cost reduction of renewables make them competitive with other sources, with the additional
19
advantage of being carbon-free.
There is a continuous diversification of renewable energy production, which will probably result in the
15
large-scale adoption of certain technologies.
A strong push towards electric vehicles and new technology such as self-driving cars will cause a shift
14
to cleaner transportation.
The consumers prefer renewables and the prices of storage and local generation will fall lower than
12
grid power.
Role of nuclear energy is significant to reach low-carbon targets. 11
Germany already reached 40% energy production from renewables in 2016, more than doubling the
9
percentage from 2010.
Flexibilisation of demand (demand response). 8
Renewable energy is growing fast and will continue to do so. But the timing for reaching 50% will be
6
pushed back by the increase of electric vehicles, the rate of which is an unknown.
Beside all technical solutions, a mandatory requirement was a broad user acceptance of all societal
5
groups and stakeholders – achieved with tailored concepts of information and motivation.
In Bavaria, there is a community (Wildpoldsried) that already in 2016 produces 5 times the energy it
5
needs for itself. Why not learn from this and similar communities?
This trivialises the issues involved. There is more to energy than a few windmills. Integrated energy
4
systems - e.g., zinc or aluminium for air cells - will take massive effort.
Convergence of renewable energy technologies will deliver higher value to the customer (heating,
3
cooling, electricity).
Microgrids will go much of the way, but need to interlink with other microgrids and the smart grid, and
3
need ICT technologies to enable such inter-operability, self-monitoring and context awareness.
Access to the future electrical energy supply needs affordable, available and sustainable generation
3
and storage opportunities.
The definition of renewable must be updated, because it is not independent from non-renewable, and
3
therefore 50% is actually, even beyond 2040, too high a target.
It is crucial to efficiently use energy through friction and wear reduction, with decreasing of transport
2
through remote work and with change in human's high-cost energy habits.
Beside (renewable) energy (kWh) production, sufficient generation of power (kW) must be
2
guaranteed. Only the combination will lead to the desired success.
All energy generators need a level playing field within a carbon-free future electricity market. 2

This is our forecast from www.TechCastGlobal.com 2


PRIMES scenario in the context of Clean Energy for All Europeans points to such 50% penetration in
2
electricity to achieve the 27% renewables target.

48
EU public is not ready for a flexible renewable energy consumption as needs to be key factor to
2
ensure 100% succesful implementation
The use and development of microgrids enables communities with local generation and management
1
of their own energy needs, eliminating transmission losses etc.
The future challenge will be to secure the CO2-free electrical energy supply. 1
Strong efforts in energy efficiency and energy saving will allow to reduce the overall electricity
1
consumption in all sectors.

Significance of R&I

Average: 4.07 Dispersion: 0.70


No.
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I of
votes
The energy mix at national level remains dependent on the political will. 61

R&I on energy storage is key. 59


Beside the technical learning curve, we need a social learning curve. A community can take care of its
36
own needs. R&I in the social context have to be accelerated and improved.
The need for a technology learning curve to reduce costs at the level of grid parity implies still huge
27
investments in R&I, particular to develop innovative technologies like ocean energy, etc.
Human behaviour has to be subject to research in order to 're-organise' our consumption needs. 12

The development of thin-film solar cells could transform any surface into energy collection system. 11

A sustainable energy production method still needs to be found. 10


Increasing penetration of electric passenger cars market will drive the need for more power generation,
more widely distribute electrical storage particularly for home use driving R&D and innovation system 8
wide
Reducing the energy demand should be the first priority. 8
Energy storage and flexibility will be the future key issues - R&D and effective use of existing facilities
6
(e.g. storage- and pumped storage hydro power)
We need solid & sustainable business models with benefits to all stakeholders and good M2M (machine
4
to machine) & HMI (human machine interfaces) for this to happen
Research on how to convince people and enterprises to participate are needed for a succesfull
4
implementation;
A critical review of energgy production and consumption pattern throughout Europe is required to
4
develop the system perspective
For this to work, we need to build an entire new energy system on new social and economic foundations. 3
To go futher, beyond 50%, will require R&D but this share is already reached by some countries, region
3
or territories
Breakthrough development on batteries is essential for breakthrough od renewables. 2

49
2.2 80% of all building surfaces in the EU that are exposed to sunlight are used for power
generation

Number of respondents: 83

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Buildings' refurbishment and renovation cycles offer the windows of opportunity to install solar power
54
generation, but these are long-term soutions.
Individual owners and cultural conservationists will resist solar installations on some structures (ex.
38
personal homes, and historical buildings).
A strong policy on energy renovation of buildings is needed to achieve an ambitious solar target. 35
PV is probably not the most economically (and environmentally) efficient solution (especially in the
18
north of the EU), building-refurbishment is a current, efficient solution.
Retrofitting existing buildings may be problematic, and undesirable for certain types of buildings
16
(heritage).
Decreasing costs and easy deployment of energy storage will reduce the value of generating power
12
from existing buildings, largely limiting this option to new construction.
Thinking about the potential of artificial photosynthesis and its generation of chemical kinds of power
9
(e.g. using north faces of buildings) will be interesting. It does not always neet to be PV.
PV does not have to be the only option available. Other static technologies, such as thermoelectrics,
7
could contribute to meeting the target.
In 2014, Michigan State University researchers developed a completely transparent solar cell that
5
could become a perfect window replacement.
Much more has to be done with architects and owners to integrate the PV on new buildings and
4
retrofiting existing building as a first option.
80% only realistic with strong legal or commercial incentive. 3
PV does not have to be the only option available. Other static technologies, such as thermoelectrics,
could contribute to meeting the target. (4) 3
(I cannot select this option)

50
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.71 Dispersion: 0.91

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research should look into making building-applicable solar technology as unobtrusive as possible -
46
while still maintaining acceptable cost.
Social acceptance (and a change of mind of architects/builders) of these technologies will be as
37
essential as technological advances...
If the cost and functionality of a solar roof is comparable to a traditional roof the solar roof will be
21
chosen, particularly if there are government incentives. R&D to drive down costs is key.
There's a lot of promise not so much in using building surfaces, but in road / street surfaces, which,
however, raise additional concerns about long-term reliability and maintainability - and these need 10
systematic exploration.
Not a technical problem, more of a social and economic one. Besides, one wall of 4 is always pointing
6
north, and one more is facing away from the sun at any given moment.

51
2.3 Electric energy storage systems for trucks (more than 10 tons) that allow transport over
distances of more than 500 km with one charge are available in every EU country

Number of respondents: 61

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The demand for energy storage increases as a response to the larger share of renewables. 34
Progress is accelerating in the development of different types of batteries. New solutions allow for
31
large-scale storage.
What cannot be produced locally will be transported by rail (long distance) and distributed by truck
17
locally - long distance trucks will be irrelevant.
Deployment will be driven largely by costs and local environmental restrictions. Major ports with air
9
quality issues may mandate electrics but long-haul diesel trucks are likely to remain competitive.
Hybrid (battery + fuel cell as range extender) might be an interesting alternative. 8
Will truck transport over distances of more than 500 km be relevant in the future when products will
5
be produced locally by 3d-printing?
An electric truck is like a horse in winter, which uses much of its capacity to transport its own energy. 4

Advances from graphene flagship will supply the necessary technology. 4

Hydrogen cars will be more popular. 4


We should look not at substituting fuel as energy storage system for transport, but at fuel cells to
2
convert chemical energy in electric energy on board.
Batteries for long distance transport is a waste of resources. E-mobility has to play out its advantages
2
on short distances first (recuperation and 0-emissions in cities).
These are random points unrelated to an essentially unimportant assertion. 2
The efforts being made in the field of passenger cars will be translated to the freight sector as soon as
2
some cost targets are achieved. E-cars expected to reach parity with ICE cars by 2020.
Countries' policy could become a key factor, but the stronger resistance could come from truck
1
producers.

52
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.95 Dispersion: 1.24

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Beyond the development of battery storage, energy recuperation systems need further developments. 25
Cars and trucks can become important storage systems once the charging time can be reduced,
24
which requires an investment in relevant R&I.
The efficiency of energy storage solutions needs to be further developed and be made scalable. 23
Electricity storage remains a key barrier for the energy transition. Maximum efforts both from private
16
and public sector are needed.
New solutions for long distance transport (rail and electric last mile in a form of combined traffic -
14
containers on rail) are being called for.
The massive energy storage systems will require more infrastructure development (e.g. hydroelectric
10
pump storage) than new technologies.
Research on renewable sources is the limit. If the stored energy comes from fossil fuels (or
4
derivates), electrical transportation can't become a smart option.
The market for these new technologies is huge and EU countries should strive to aquire relevant IPR. 4
SkyTran type systems for package delivery could compete with the total cost and offer higher speed
2
and service than truck or rail if roadways are included in the cost structure. Need huge RD effort.
EU FCH JU might provide a solution to that problem. Efforts should be intensified. 1

53
2.4 Solar thermal power plant electricity generation is available in every EU country

Number of respondents: 71

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Nordic countries are not solar-rich enough for this technology. 41
Solar thermal plants only work for solar-rich regions where they can deliver base load energy and thus
35
overcome their relative higher costs compared to solar PV.
"Available" is an easy target or goal. 15
According to ESTIF (European Solar Thermal Industry Federation) the market size for solar thermal
energy has fallen in virtually every country in the EU in 2016, continuing a trend already manifest in 13
past years.
The competition with PV remains difficult, despite the advantage of dispatchability. 8
Solar thermal power plants imply some form of concentration through mirrors, which uses only the
8
direct and not the diffused radiation. There are hardly any suitable areas in Europe.
In 2015, only 4 EU countries had operational plants, and no other country in addition to these had
7
plants under construction (Greenpeace 2016 report).
No specific efficiency targets and/or power requirements make this question useless in terms of
5
discussion.
PV together with heat pumps is already more competitive for heating and cooling compared with solar
4
thermal.
Why should solar thermal plants be in every EU country? 2

Solar thermal plants only work during daylight even in solar-rich regions. 1

54
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.40 Dispersion: 1.32

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research is needed to bring down the costs of solar energy. 32

Evaluate the impact of current technologies on wildlife and develop ways to mitigate it. 12

This could be done now. 9


Some current solar thermal plant technologies need a lot of water - an economic issue in some
5
locations, which may however be tackled by innovative technologies.
Research for solutions with PV in combination with heat pumps are more relevant 5
No specific efficiency targets and/or power requirements make this question useless in terms of
4
discussion

55
2.5 For the first time, bacteria are able to produce carbon-free hydrogen fuel

Number of respondents: 44
No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
A lot of time is needed to produce the amount of bacteria necessary for significant effects on carbon-
21
saving.
This is likely to happen, but conversion efficiency will lag way behind other methods (e.g.
12
PV+electrolysis).
Researchers have engineered the E.coli bacteria to generate renewable propane. 12
Scaling up "synthetic biology" will make this available much sooner than we expect today (see: The
9
Economist, 2017-05-06 "primordial gloop").
In a factory or in a test tube? 7
Silly nonsense. If you want hydrogen, make it in a desert somewhere. Then go to paraffins via syngas
5
ex salt-water irrigated biomass. Better, skip hydrogen and go to reduced metals.
High likelihood, but multiple competing factors retard possible deployment. Options such as Indirectly-
5
Heated Pyrolytic Gasification for production of H2 from local biomass could offer low-cost entry.
The topic is obsolete: Already biomass which converts CO2 into hydrocarbons is CO2 neutral. No
3
need for H2 producing bacteria, which in turn create the need to set up H2 infrastructure.

56
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.87 Dispersion: 1.51

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The efficiency of the process needs further improvement. 34

The ecological impacts need further research. 25


H2 economy requires wide deployment and a robust supplier base. Distributed low cost generation of
6
H2 could accelerate the use and offer a market entry strategy.
Many other energy rich molecules can be synthesized by microbes. Electron storage in chemical
3
bonds is favourable. But rather not H2 by microbes.

57
2.6 Energy harnessed from the human body is used in applications such as heart pacemakers,
organ or brain implants

Number of respondents: 44

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Many potential sources of energy - from body movement to sweat, tears, and even blood - are being
28
explored concurrently, increasing the likelihood of success in at least some of these cases.
Companies developed power-generating systems for pavements, football fields and even school
12
corridors using kinetic tiles that harness energy.
Science fiction 10
This is not a reasonable solution for the Energy challenges in the EU, it could never be a significant
8
contribution to the energy system compared to energy efficiency and renewables.
Bio-mechanical sensors are a hot topic (cfr. 'robotic hand') and already use small electrical signals
5
produced by nerve endings. Next step to small energy production will be possible in near future.
Energy harvesting will extend battery life & sometimes eliminate battery replacement, but the power of
IoT devices needs to reduce, and harvesting & storage technologies need to improve (HW, SW, 5
system models).
Australian and Chinese researchers have recently produced the first 'smart fabric' capable of turning
4
thermal energy into electricity.
Life extension made possible by various implants becomes feasible with sources of energy internal to
2
the body that are not at risk of external damage. Cost assurance of safety will pace deployment.
A recent Swiss prototype of a skin-like filter uses solar energy to power a pacemaker. 2
People need to understand better the ambient energies available in most use cases and design
2
around this power budget for hardware and software.
More energy from humans is available in used water and waste, if you really want to adress this issue.
1
Orders of magnitude are important to keep in mind to really evaluate the potential of the human body.
There is already a prototype of a mechanically powered pacemaker. Think self-winding wristwatches... 1

58
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.60 Dispersion: 1.92

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research has to overcome a substantial efficiency barrier in using human body energy to power
27
implants or wearable devices.
A breakthrough is needed in the field of very thin and flexible batteries for the technology to spread
18
widely.
Sufficient energy is generated by bodily systems to power implants. Tapping that energy is a major
6
research challenge.
Many of the systems which could be realized are based on materials properties, so material
6
improvements are needed to achieve these targets
Better power management ICs based on real life ambient energies is needed 5
Lower power sensors and energy harvesting centric software to minimize IoT device power is critical
2
- models to simulate application behavior is also critical
Energy saving, energy efficiency and renewables combined to a less consuming life style should be
1
the ambitious goals to reduce our energy bill.
Less administration for prototyping can boost research and make the introduction in real practice
1
easy to overwin.
Energetic self-sustainability e.g. for pacemakers is a very nice property for patients' well-being, but
1
will not have significant impact to EU energy policy's goals.

59
2.7 Paintable solar energy cells, enabled by nanomaterials, are used for the first time on the
roof of a large building (more than 100m2) in the EU to harvest electricity

Number of respondents: 59
No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The production, installation & maintenance costs for photovoltaic materials such as silicon are still
39
high, so research groups are working on solar paint with increasingly better results.
The statement looks only for a demonstration project - after several years of research on the
23
technology already it should be possible to demonstrate it on a roof quite fast.
Paint is relatively cheap, but how durable is it? 10
Painting implies a gross process even if nanomaterials are involved. 3D printing is an ultra precise
8
process that can be viewed as a form of painting. Robotic 3D printing of photovoltaic surfaces.
To use non-toxic nanomaterials is difficult, but the first experiments with non-toxic salts were
7
successful.
This is an oversimplified statement. Besides the "paint" (absorber), PV will always need cables,
6
electrodes and wiring. These systems would need simplification and significant cost-down, too.

60
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.05 Dispersion: 1.00

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The challenge is to reach an efficiency level equal to or greater than silicon-based solar cells. 41

To be able to paint them on a large scale is a scientific challenge. 25

Clarification of toxicity is a research challenge that will also bring knowledge to other fields. 17
Maybe, this technology should not be used for roofs but for walls. 'conventional' silicon PV on roofs is
9
fine.
3D printing of photovoltaic surfaces may be able to achieve higher levels of efficiency. The challenge
5
is to lower the cost of 3D printing devices for this application.
We need further R&D to develop the triangle of 1) high efficiency and lifetime, 2) low cost (in module
4
and system) and 3) social acceptance (non toxic, aesthetic for use in walls).
We will need to make a choice between cheap but inefficient and expensive but efficient. 3

Long-time durability of nanomaterials will be a key issue, in particular when exposed to light and heat 3

61
2.8 Solar water-splitting technology is used in the industrial and commercial sectors across the
EU to store the energy from the sun

Number of respondents: 56

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Cheap water splitting devices that operate for a long time are still elusive, but researchers are working
32
to develop them.
The demand for hydrogen is increasing fast. 24
More than 300 water-splitting cycles are described in the literature, which makes it likely that some of
18
them will prove effective.
PV + electrolysis seem to be the winners currently, so this is part of the overall scientific challenge of
14
PV efficiency/price.
The challenge is not the splitting but in the storage of H2 from small scale decentralized systems.
13
Large scale H2 competes with electric and costs many billions. Decentralized H2 production needed.
Systemic problem, not a technical one. 5
You don't do this in the EU. You do it in N Africa. You make the H2 into something useful like a
4
paraffin to move it. H2 itself is a dreadful fuel but a good reagent.

62
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.75 Dispersion: 1.25


No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Need for developing methods to boost the longevity of high-efficiency photocathodes in photo
32
electrochemical water-splitting devices.
There is a need for R&D on decentralized H2 production, storage and use. 29
There are more than 300 water-splitting cycles described in the literature - the most effective and
18
useful ones must still be identified. Research on them is highly needed.
Systemic problem, not a technical one. 3

Not from "photosynthesis". Solar cells => electrolysis. 3

63
2.9 A hydrogen infrastructure in Europe has been built up and is in use

Number of respondents: 63

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The hydrogen infrastructure is under test in 10 countries . 25

There will be strong support from the car-maker industry. 24

Hydrogen (H2) and Methane (CH4) infrastructures will complement each other. 24
Electrically-chargeable vehicles represent a serious alternative to hydrogen. If electricity charging
17
infrastructure develops well, hydrogen investments could be stranded.
The major investment required both in the infrastructure and in the automotive fuel cells and other
10
devices will be difficult to justify in the face of rapid penetration of electrics in transportation.
There will be strong opposition from gas companies. 9
Public controversies about the aim and use of these infrastructures are likely to increase given the
6
current paucity of public information.
Decentralized, small scale H2 production particularly from local biomass, storage and use, is a
6
promising option for which infrastructure does not exist.
We will not be able to afford several new energy systems in parallel. With current political trends,
5
electricity will be entrenched by 2030 and hydrogen will remain a niche or a curiosity.
This is a misconception. Hydrogen does not need "infrastructure", and the methane grid will not cope
4
with molecular hydrogen.
In 2016, the European Union Horizon 2020 programme financed 20 extra hydrogen-refuelling stations
4
in Europe.

64
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.36 Dispersion: 1.12

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
This is rather about the political will to adopt relevant public policies. 36
New technology is needed to increase the output of hydrogen production, reduce its cost, as well as
34
reduce greenhouse gases.
Rather than technology maturity it is a matter of market choice and investment rationale. 13
Distributed, low cost small scale H2 production from local biomass and storage offers market entry for
9
communities choosing the H2 path contributing to local jobs.
Why are none of these questions about actual, real world energy? This is all high school fantasy stuff.
3
What about hydraulic fracturing? Russian dependency?
While fuel cells can be competitive if they are produced in numbers comparable to IC engines
deployment, this demands the existence of an infrastructure that will cost more than that necessary 2
for electrics.
The main question to be solved is safe large-volume H2 storage. 2
To produce H2 from biogas or other Biofuel materials is a nonsense. The CO2 emissions are not
2
avoided.

65
3. Environment: Bioeconomy, Resources & Decarbonisation

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance of
Significance
3.1 30% and more of the resources needed for 35 3.62 1.15 Later
electronic devices come from deep sea
mining.
3.2 More than half the fish for human 38 3.58 0.87 Uncertain
consumption in the world are produced by
aquaculture including offshore aquaculture.
3.3 The share of low-carbon electricity supply in 50 4.27 0.52 Later
the EU increased from 30% in 2016 to more
than 80%.
3.4 CO2 capture from the air is applied in all EU 43 3.89 1.39 Later
capitals, urban and industrial areas in the EU
(including CO2 conversion to permanently
storable substances, for example,
mineralization).
3.5 The fact that more than 80% of all materials 47 3.82 1.41 Later
across industries can be substituted ensures
an efficient utilization of resources in bio-
and fossil-based production systems.
3.6 More than 90% of all materials and waste is 51 3.85 0.98 Later
physically recycled or re-used energetically
in the circular economy.
3.7 The use of rare earth elements and metals 32 4.19 0.90 Later
in electronics (for example Scandium,
Yttrium etc.) is reduced by 80% (compared
to today) without hampering technical
progress.
3.8 Metals (for example, aluminium, iron, 38 3.72 1.05 Later
copper, silver, gold) that are recovered from
landfills meet 50% of the EU’s demand.
3.9 Biological phosphate removal (BPR) allows 35 4.13 0.61 Later
90% of the phosphorus from wastewater to
be recycled.

66
3.1 30% and more of the resources needed for electronic devices come from deep sea mining

Number of respondents: 32

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Deep sea mining is a promising future option for primary supply of raw materials. However, the legal
19
framework for exploitation is still being developed and there are only permits for exploration
Deep sea mining is a challenge for the environment, and needs a lot of energy. Therefore, it will take a
17
long time before it becomes a reality. "Conventional" mining can also develop a lot, and prevails.
Polymetallic nodules can be mined from the deep sea – small lumps of rock that contain up to 28%
metal – ranging in size from a golf ball to a potato, which contain, e.g. 26% Manganese, 6% Iron, 5% 10
Silicon, 3% Aluminum, 1.4% Nickel, 1.3% Copper etc.
Continuing improvements in recycling and reuse and improvements in recovery from existing mines is
9
likely to reduce the attractiveness of deep ocean mining.
Deep sea mining is environmentally critical and should be avoided. 4
Asteroid mining potentially can yield a greater variety of materials than deep sea mining. 16 Psyche is
3
a metallic asteroid that could potentially supply such needs.

67
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.61 Dispersion: 1.23

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Lack of knowledge of the deep-sea environment necessitates a careful approach and needs further
26
research.
Exploit the synergies in R&D with regards to exploration, extraction and processing. 11
We have a lack of knowledge on what kind of impacts tech and accelerated activities could have to
11
environment. An increase of this knowledge is necessary.
Development of alternatives to current electronics materials including graphene, carbon nanotubes,
6
etc. may warrant more research than deep sea mining.
Research is required regarding the ethics and impact of deep sea mining 6
Asteroid mining is a clear alternative to deep sea mining and may potentially have much greater total
2
returns to Europe. The Solar System contains many orders of magnitude the resources on Earth.

68
3.2 More than half the fish for human consumption in the world are produced by aquaculture
including offshore aquaculture

Number of respondents: 37

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The resources for ocean fishing are diminishing very fast. 40
According to World Bank and FAO, aquaculture will provide close to two thirds of global fish
23
consumption by 2030.
Microplastics in ocean waters lead increasingly to microplastics in fish meat, making it unfit for human
13
consumption. Fishfarming with water filtration will provide higher quality fish.
Fisheries and aquaculture assure the livelihoods of 10–12% of the world’s population (acording to The
State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture/ FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE 5
UNITED NATIONS).
Integrated ocean aquaculture with pollution-reducing plants like hyacinths in floating-island concept
5
may increase yields, clean waters up, and produce healthier fish.
Fish nutrition science is producing resource efficient solutions. Also, GMOs will provide new sources
5
of key fatty acids.
EU overall output has been more or less constant in volume since 2000 whereas global production, at
4
the same time, has been growing by nearly 7% per year.

69
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.58 Dispersion: 0.87

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Aquaculture nutrition and aquatic physiology represent important research areas. 32

Further research in this area is needed to develop and multiply the flora and fauna in the aquatic 23
environment.
Up to 30 percent of farmed salmon are unfit for consumption because of illness. Research in fish 9
health is needed.
We need GM-bred traits in oilseeds for key fatty acids. 5

Research is required on the impact of aquaplastics on suitability of aquacultured fish for human 5
consumption.
Environmental impacts of aquaculture need to be understood, up to the point that lack of adequate 5
water quality will harm production

70
3.3 The share of low-carbon electricity supply in the EU increased from 30% in 2016 to more
than 80%

Number of respondents: 48

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Solar, tide and wave energy sources are still underexploited in most European countries and
46
contributions and developments from these sources could contribute to achieving this figure.
Energy saving plays a role here, as will smart networks and energy storage. 33

The volatile financial market for energy is hampering the realisation of these technologies. 16
This is more about the collapse of the current socio-economic paradigm than simply about an
10
increase in renewables. The actual amount of renewables within the timeframe will barely double.
If all wind energy facilities are really used and switched on, we can achieve 80% very soon. 8
Solar energy has a different implementation model as it can be installed by building owners and small
6
land owners and costs are decreasing, so the percentage from solar will increase quickly.
The timing for achieving 80% will depend on the rate of electric vehicles uptake, as they will
5
contribute to increasing consumption very fast.
Low cost, widely distributed energy storage is necessary to high electrical reliability needed to meet
5
the goal.
Supply of raw materials (Li, Co, REE etc) may limit the uptake of renewable energy sources. 3

They are still heavily subsidised. 3

Timing will depend also on implementation of policies. 2


H2 derived from locally produced biomass can be an important contributor with distributed H2
1
production and improved H2 storage.

71
Significance of R&I
Average: 4.24 Dispersion: 0.63

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The supply itself is not the problem - the infrastructure for "transport" and energy storage are the
43
problems that have to be solved.
We need behavioral studies on why people, on the one hand, demand more energy-saving and
23
efficiency; but, on the other, behave contrary to that and use more energy for superficial machines.
Renewable energy needs a lot of critical materials. Proper recycling systems should be set up and
21
substitutions developed
We need to develop smart-net technologies and storage. Unfortunately, the privatisation of electricity
12
infrastructure makes addressing these public challenges politically very complex.
We need a lot of research on the "acceptance" of the different technologies and how to convince
citizens that the infrastructure can only be supplied if there are visible facilities - even if they are not 9
nice.
It depends on the definition: if you define nuclear power as low-carbon, then one should invest in the
new small nuclear power plants, too. If not, the mass and efficiency of solar cells have to contribute 9
more and require additional research.
We need research about the questions concerning how much citizens are willing and able to pay for
5
energy.
Research is needed on low cost H2 generation from local biomass with improved H2 storage and
5
deployment of fuel cell powered vehicles.
metals are needed; recycling and substitution are important but primary sources will still be needed 2
the growing importance of solar increases dependence on China: research is needed on next
2
generation of solar panels
Power-to-gas systems need to be developed, optimized and established, in order to convert electrical
2
energy to stable chemical energy
Breakthrough research on batteries is required. 2
Research is needed into social innovations - energy pricing arrangements which drive energy saving,
1
in industry, transport and buildings, in ways which are politically acceptable.

72
3.4 CO2 capture from the air is applied in all EU capitals, urban and industrial areas in the EU
(including CO2 conversion to permanently storable substances, for example, mineralization)

Number of respondents: 41

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The demand for carbon capture is huge. 27

Forests could be used to capture CO2 in wood products and subsitute fossil energy. 12
Synthetic biology and ecological engineering can be a cheap and scalable solution for earth
10
terraformation.
Multiple alternatives to carbon sequestration are available including reduced CO2 generation, artificial
9
photosynthesis, planting of forests, conversion of bogs to cranberry farming, and other options.
Petra Nova (produced by a Japanese Company) collects 90% of the CO2 emitted by a factory, up to
5
5000 tonnes per year.
Carbonclean technology (produced by an Indian company) is converting CO2 into baking soda – and
5
could lock up 60,000 tonnes of CO2 a year.
Carbon capture from flue gas will be much more efficient than from the air (as in CCS). 4

Those technologies are far beyond what has been achieved for renewable-based electricity. 4

Using more wood in the construction industry would keep carbon captured. 3

73
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.84 Dispersion: 1.36

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Europe is not at the forefront of these technologies, so it needs to scale up its relevant R&D. 28
Options that reduce energy use and reduce carbon production are more sustainable. Remaining
14
carbon can be offset through planting trees or synthetic biology approaches that use the CO2.
Research on membrane technology for CO2 capture will bring together many researchers,
14
stakeholders and private companies.
There is a promising line of research that needs to continue: US researchers have taken another step
closer to developing a scalable option to capture and store carbon dioxide (CO2) using a new 6
technique that involves injecting liquefied gas into ancient
artificial photosynthese could be an option 6
Researchers found that commonly used industrial minerals called zeolites could significantly improve
the energy efficiency of "carbon capture" technology. More research is needed to expand on this 5
promise.
Research on new ecosystems combining synthetically modified and autochthonous organisms is
4
needed.
easy-to-use and cheap materials and processes are required for this 3

no need to capture so much CO2 once renewable electricity is available 3

Research on carbon storage technologies need to focus on the robustness of storage 2

74
3.5 The fact that more than 80% of all materials across industries can be substituted ensures
an efficient utilization of resources in bio- and fossil-based production systems

Number of respondents: 44

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Transition towards smart and efficient use of resources is necessary to make it possible. 38

With some materials, this is possible, but 80% is a very high number and needs a lot of time. 26
The shift to a decentralised circular economy could reduce the demand for virgin materials in
manufacturing by 50 percent, and greatly reduce the need for long-distance transport, in addition to 16
bio.
What precisely is the question, or statement. 3

Synthetic biology is a reality and will be the key to propelling the next bioeconomic based system. 3

Substitution of one material for another whose supply is not assured is not useful. 2

75
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.82 Dispersion: 1.41

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
It's not only a question of research; networks of industries have to be built in order to make these
35
exchanges possible.
Research needs to look into the safety, security and sustainability of the substitution materials. 29
This substitution demands a rethink of the whole material extraction and supply process and
16
market.
Novel products have to be designed in the context of reuse and recycling. 11

The question is not clear 4


Systemic innovation to remove the barriers to such substitution will be essential - and this needs
1
global co-operation

76
3.6 More than 90% of all materials and waste is physically recycled or re-used energetically in
the circular economy

Number of respondents: 50

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Current recycling rates vary widely depending on the waste stream or country. A single figure of 90%
27
may be inaccurate and too ambitious in some cases.
The European Commission adopted an ambitious Circular Economy Package, which includes a
26
common EU target for recycling 65% of municipal waste by 2030.
A high level of recycling requires massive investment. 23
As consistent progress has been made in life-cycle assessment methodologies, there will be more
20
public pressure to recycle and reuse.
This figure can only be achieved if it includes the reuse and service-life extension of goods, which is
16
not subject to the second-law of thermodynamics and prevents waste rather than manage it.
Large scale utilisation of biowaste is a clear trend. 11
The main problem will be to curb the current inertia of the free market and the current consumption
7
strategies.
Technically and politically, it is not a difficult target. 3
The re-use sector within the recycling sector has the potential of creating a huge amount of jobs for
1
low-skilled people.

77
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.85 Dispersion: 0.98

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
There is need for more efficient recycling technologies, among others because this is a promising
33
market, which makes it an area that is therefore ripe for research.
Life Cyle Assessment for sustainable production needs a standardised approach in order to provide
26
consistent results to policy makers.
There is a need for more efficient and non-destructive collection of end-of-life goods as well as new
14
sorting techniques for material mixes to achieve a high purity of the materials to be recycled.
RI is needed to delink atoms instead of recycling waste, resulting in high purity resources instead of
10
secondary materials, eg depolymerisation, delaminating, decoating, devolvanisation of tyres.
There is a need for research on how to push societies into a path of less waste production 9

products conception should involve this target 3

78
3.7 The use of rare earth elements and metals in electronics (for example Scandium, Yttrium
etc.) is reduced by 80% (compared to today) without hampering technical progress

Number of respondents: 32

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The solution will change depending on the case and can come from more than one direction:
28
substitution, increased recycling, better resource efficiency or sustainable primary production of CRM.
Technical solutions need inspiration and ideas; it is difficult to estimate when they arrive. 15
There is a flood of patents in Japan for materials that replace rare metals in electronic devices. It
10
should also be possible to replace them in the EU industry.
Graphene and carbon nanotubes promise application in electronics that can reduce demand for rare
5
earths.
There is a need to avoid exploiting deep sea bed for more rare materials, so they are to be 'replaced'
4
and 'reduced'.

79
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.13 Dispersion: 0.88

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
More research is needed on technologies for the substitution of critical raw materials, processing,
27
sorting and recycling, etc.
More research on efficient and selective recycling technologies is needed 15
The industry for electronic products is not large anymore in the EU. It is the question if it is worthwhile
7
doing a lot of R&I for replacing these resources.
Graphene and CNTs hold promise of replacing rare earths in some applications. EU breakthroughs
4
could give competitive advantage to mfg in EU.
Photonics is a key enabling technology in the EU and photonics is playing an increasing role in many
4
products that were earlier primarily electronic. High priority area for research.
More research is needed on reducing and replacing rare materials in electronics. 3

80
3.8 Metals (for example, aluminum, iron, copper, silver, gold) that are recovered from landfills
meet 50% of the EU’s demand

Number of respondents: 38

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Landfills have a large potential - but it is costly to recover metals from them. 33

As we do not have enough space for landfills in the EU, this will also save a lot of space. 15
The concentration of aluminum in many landfills is higher than the concentration of aluminum in
12
bauxite from which the metal is derived.
Methods have to be put in place to avoid metals getting into landfills. 8
Why landfills? What is needed are systems to recover metals from the 'urban mine' - the stock of
2
materials at the end-of-life of appliances etc. New primary resources will still be required.

81
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.72 Dispersion: 1.05

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The new methods for material recovery need research to make them efficient - otherwise
30
recovering is too expensive.
For every metal, new and efficient methods of recovery have to be developed. 20
Products are to be developed in a way it is easy to recycle precious materials and metals before
6
they go to landfilling.
A new design paradigm with the life cycle of a product in mind shall become the norm. 4

82
3.9 Biological phosphate removal (BPR) allows 90% of the phosphorus from wastewater to be
recycled

Number of respondents: 32

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Resources need to be recycled, but to remove 90% of the phosphorus from waste water is a very
24
ambitious target.
BPR decreases water purification costs significantly. 9
Many wastewater treatment plants are required to remove phosphorous during the treatment process.
9
This is an extremely resource-intensive process.
There are too many on-off and dispersed housing developments. Planning authorities need to better
7
understand the negative implications of bad planning, for example bad planning in Ireland.
Synthetic biology combined with the traditional bioremediation strategies could be a plausible
5
solution.
BPR is of the most economical and efficient methods for phosphorus removal. 4

Floating island approach to phosphorous and other pollutant removal shows promise. 2

Algal biotechnology can aid in "closing the loop" by nutrient- & water-recycling. 2

Dilution of waste makes phosphate recovery difficult. We need alternative strategies in housing. 1

83
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.13 Dispersion: 0.61

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Implementation of EBPR to meet new or lower phosphorus limits should begin with a
15
comprehensive/coordinated plan for the collection system.
The EU should support pilot plants to demonstrate the economic feasibility of different technologies. 15
Further understanding influent data analysis requirements and the role of fermentation is necessary
13
for effective planning.
A better understanding is needed how phosphate can be avoided in products and processes. 6
EBPR operation in the field is still not well understood, although it is studied for many years.
1
Alternative strategies via e.g. synthetic biology should be considered.

84
4. Health: Treatments, Cures, Medical Devices

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance of
significance
4.1 It is possible to replace any human organ. 78 4.43 0.72 Uncertain

4.2 All of the vital organs and parts of the 68 4.38 0.76 Later
human body can be reproduced.
4.3 Precision medicines are prescribed in more 74 4.21 0.71 Uncertain
than 50% of all prescriptions in the EU.
4.4 New immunizations against viruses lead to a 49 3.93 0.62 Uncertain
reduction in the number of viral infections in
the EU by 50% (compared to 2016).
4.5 Breakthroughs in science stop the threat of 68 4.33 0.62 Uncertain
antibiotic resistance.
4.6 Stopping sepsis has resulted in a 30% or 49 3.87 0.89 Uncertain
more reduction in mortality worldwide
(share of global death rate due to sepsis was
33.3 % in 2016).
4.7 Breakthrough innovations have led to cures 69 4.44 0.67 Later
for major age-related diseases (e.g.
dementia, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s) in the
EU.
4.8 Epigenetic-based technologies are used in 52 3.92 1.02 Later
the first non-medical human applications
(for example to stay slim, lifestyle).
4.9 In the EU, non-communicable diseases 54 4.04 0.84 Later
(NCDs) that were incurable in 2016 can be
cured by genome editing.
4.10 Tissue engineering/ regenerative medicine is 60 4.43 0.51 Uncertain
used routinely in the EU to repair tissues and
organs.
4.11 Cancer treatment is so successful in the EU 64 4.51 0.57 Later
that all cancers are categorized as "chronic
disease“ or are cured.
4.12 Precision medicine and customized 61 4.08 1.05 Uncertain
healthcare that targets a patient’s specific
genetic makeup (adaptation of DNA and
RNA according to specific wishes) is offered
in European healthcare systems.
4.13 Data on interactions between patients and 60 3.86 1.24 Uncertain
their personal environment (including
abiotic and biotic factors) are routinely and
systematically collected for diagnosis and
the creation of personalized therapy plans.

85
4.1 It is possible to replace any human organ

Number of respondents: 76

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
“Any human organ” is too ambitious, but some of them may be replaced by synthetic/ artificial organs
88
in the near future.
Some of the human organs have been transplanted for a long time now, but to replace them all with
47
artificial organs or to transplant intestine or brain will remain impossible.
We will make great progress in stopping and reversing the deterioration of organs with regenerative
45
medicine, replacement instead will be much harder to achieve.
Is this an ambition humanity want to aim at, clear ethical questions must be answered now. 31
The possibility of replacing an organ does not indicate that such replacement would be practiced.
7
Replacement may seem possible, but serious flaws may be undetectable for years.
Bio 3D printing is very promising for replacements of organs by own-stemcell-grown organs. 4
Yes, with the growth and innovation of growing cells from human blood. All organs consist of a
3
skeleton and cells growing on it.

86
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.42 Dispersion: 0.67

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
R&I is fundamental, as major investment is needed in a range of 'auxillary' fields to realise the
50
ambition.
Ethical issues are still highly problematic if stem cells are to be used. 40
Growing human organs in host animals still needs consistent research - for now, the resulting
34
human-animal chimeras don’t grow well, and few human cells survive.
Artificial organs are a realistic option using sensing and actuating systems or by engineering
29
advanced materials eg. the artificial pancreas.
Due to the enormous risk and the limited know-how protection I do not yet see industry as the driver
4
in this field.

87
4.2 All of the vital organs and parts of the human body can be reproduced

Number of respondents: 66

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Even if certain functions of the human brain might be possible to achieve by reproducing this vital
54
organ, other essential function will not be possible to restore in this way.
Regenerating organs will require a much deeper basic understanding of developmental biology and
53
its application to re-development.
New technologies are required that combine cell biology with advanced material in biohybrid systems. 38

The 3D printing of some organs has already been achieved 18


Regenerating organs will require a much deeper understanding of developmental biology and
13
synthetic biology to be able to re-develop a functional new organ.
Europe must know if it wants to invest into human cloning for therapeutic purposes, it might not be the
9
priority, other options should be explored.
Reproducing the brain is unlikely to enable reproduction of mind which may be subject to quantum
decoherence. The intestinal tract may have analogous limits including harmonization of the 7
microbiome.
All organs will not be possible - too complex, e.g., liver. 5
A clear decision has to be made on which technologies (e.g. therapeutic cloning) might be used to
4
achieve that goal.
Research into human cloning for therapeutic purposes has come to a halt in the United States. 3

88
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.38 Dispersion: 0.76

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
More support of the biology of organ development is needed 49
3D printing of organs is still an evolving technology, and needs a substantial investment of
37
research to succeed.
Further ethical research is necessary. 26

Approaches should look beyond what is already known today 14

Due to ethical reasons such research shall be funded and thereby transparent for the legislators 2

89
4.3 Precision medicines are prescribed in more than 50% of all prescriptions in the EU

Number of respondents: 71

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Mobile medicine (use of sensors, apps etc.) will enable much better monitoring of patients and their
57
response to drugs.
With the help of big data approaches, individual characteristics of the patients will be taken into
45
account to prescribe the most suitable treatment option.
Regulatory measures will take a while to develop and to be adopted consistently across the EU. 35
Rigorously scientific approaches (e.g. biomarkers) are needed to stratify patient groups, draw the
28
right conclusions and then apply or develop appropriate therapies.
Pharmaceutical companies are not incentivized to invest in developing drugs that are tailored to a few
27
people.
Attention to avoid potential misuse of personal data should be given; maybe the principle of
12
precaution should be applied, ethical frame and regulatory measures are needed.
Targeted therapies have already been approved by the FDA. 8
Organ-on-chip technologies will strongly advance the development of precision and personalized
6
medicine.
In addition to individual DNA sequencing, for precision medicine to succeed it is likely to require
5
systematic understanding of the microbiome of the individual, which is presently not available.
Free access to the clinical trials data, use of AI and a deeper knowledge about causes of diseases
4
will help to develop new strategies of action in precision medicine.
Precision medicine requires precise knowledge of the effects of treatments as close to real-time as
3
possible. Patients wanting the benefits will have to agree to provide the data.
Precision medicine will help future health outcomes only if it is capable of addressing gaps in access
2
to treatment and health inequalities.
Targeted therapies have already been approved by EMA and national authorities. 1

Currently, a lot of funding in the US goes to precision medicine (source: sciencemag). 1

90
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.21 Dispersion: 0.71

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
More complex patient profiles that better match individuals will need to be established to enhance
62
predictability of response to treatment.
Need for new experimental research for tailored drugs. 32

The current system for classifying diseases will have to be substantially modified in the future. 29
The pharmaceutical industry needs to get research incentives outside the traditional patent system for
24
conditions and diseases that affect few people, and people in poor markets.
Improved method for measuring biochemistries in vivo and in real time are required to support better
16
targeting of drugs and improved management of health.
Combination of drugs, behavioral changes, digital assistants etc. will personalize health care, with
13
emphasis on prevented, health maintaining part. More responsibilities fall to people themselves.
The traditional patent system will need to evolve and adapt to new developments. Pharmaceutical
9
companies will need to find a new business model, public incentives are the solution.
Our knowledge of individual patient response & reaction to a given therapy, the impact of lifestyle
5
management and continuous monitoring is too limited. More clinical research is needed.
Systematic understanding of the microbiomes of individuals and interaction of same with bodily
4
functions and impact on disease is needed.
R&I efforts should consider as early as possible challenges concerning the market access and the
3
healthcare implementation of innovative approaches.
Improvement in real time monitoring of precision medication is essential combined with management
3
of the knowledge asset across all individuals with similar diagnosis for continual process improvement
Not on individual level - but precision medicine on group level. Big data used for identifying groups of
3
risks

91
4.4 New immunizations against viruses lead to a reduction in the number of viral infections in
the EU by 50% (compared to 2016)

Number of respondents: 48

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The global burden of respiratory infections is very high. Mainly seasonal influenza is examined (WHO,
many surveys), but the numbers are very high and can only be estimated (see NCBI). Calculating a 34
reduction on the time frame is therefore very difficult.
Too many factors are influencing the rate of infections. Making a projection is not possible. 24
Seasonal influenza is responsible for the majority of viral infections and due to the genetical variance
11
of the causing agent over time, 50% reduction is too ambitious.
Research into the natural immunity of individuals against a range of infections is likely to lead to
11
treatments and public health measures that can reduce the incidence of infections.
AI for better surveillance and identification and knowledge of infectious diseases. 4
Broad availability of individual DNA plus systematic understanding of the physiology of the individuals
3
including their microbiome is likely to lead to more rapid development of vaccines.

92
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.93 Dispersion: 0.67

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Real data about virus infections and their spread is needed. The current data consists of limited
40
estimations (see WHO; NCBI).
New methods for rapid detection are required. 26
Research on the genetic variance of influenza viruses and development of effective vaccines are
20
needed.
More research is needed into natural immunity to viral infections across large populations to identify
15
potential treatments and prevention measures.

93
4.5 Breakthroughs in science stop the threat of antibiotic resistance

Number of respondents: 68

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The breakthrough in science also needs to be affordable for developing countries and their public
43
health systems should be radically upgraded. Otherwise, new viruses will appear or re-appear.
New approaches to controlling antibiotic resistant diseases are required. 41
The search for new classes of antibiotics is important for the society and profitable for pharmaceutical
33
industry.
Bacteria will always develop resistance mechanisms to new drugs. 31
Antibiotics should be considered as scarce resource and their usage should be regulated strongly,
13
similarly to other scarce resources on the planet.
Natural resistance to infection is often present in some individuals against some infections. Availability
9
of information on people who do not get sick can lead to understanding and better treatment.
Companies are not interested in investing is the needed research: they prefer treatments for chronic
6
diseases, not acute ones; the customers stick around longer.
Important to look at One Health. The holistic perspective. Antibiotic resistance comes from many
4
sources, e.g. animals, food, etc.
Teixobactin, discovered in 2017, the first new antibiotic in the last 30 years, paves the way for a new
4
generation of antibiotics.
A strain-specific tailored combination of various approaches (e.g., antibiotics, bacteriophage, and
3
small molecules) might make it possible to deal with resistance.
Antibiotics resistance has been caused by animal breeding. Strong rules for limiting the use of
2
antibiotics in meat industry could help avoiding human antibiotics resistance.
Vaccination and use of antibiotics? Which is the solution and which is the problem? 1

AI (artificial intelligence) would be a point-of-care test identifying between viruses and bacteria. 1

94
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.33 Dispersion: 0.62

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
New science and technologies wherever they emerge need to be supported, traditional pathways may
40
not bring the expected outcomes.
There is a clear urgency: a woman in the USA died in 2017 of a superbug resistant to every available
25
antibiotic.
Emerging nanoscale technologies promise rapid evaluation of antibiotic resistance for different bugs. 15

R&I efforts have to be accompanied by an effective and global hygiene strategy. 12


A better understanding of resistance mechanisms, as well as research into new types of antibiotics, is
11
required.
Why some people stay well can now be studied across large populations with individual DNA and
5
systemic analysis available on those identified. Is the source of their wellness transferable?
The use of nanotechnologies will improve the efficacy of antibiotics. 3
AI - to be developed in alignment with better tools for diagnostic (with cheaper point of care test for
3
third countries)

95
4.6 Stopping sepsis has resulted in a 30% or more reduction in mortality worldwide (share of
global death rate due to sepsis was 33.3 % in 2016)

Number of respondents: 47

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Improved methods for the early diagnosis of sepsis are urgently required. 38
Presently, there are no estimates of the burden of sepsis and septicemia at the global level; and it was
21
not included in the initial Global Burden of Disease study (see NCBI).
Development of new antibiotics and methods to improve the immune system by means of synthetic
15
biology is needed.
Even in the EU countries, cases of sepsis show high figures but the statistics are often unreliable. In
10
England, the incidence is 232 cases per 100,000 population.
Using death certificate data for the period 1999–2014, the US Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) found that a total of 2,470,666 deceased (6% of all deaths) had sepsis listed among 5
the causes of death (sepsis-related deaths).
Sepsis will not be stopped. Diagnostics and therapies can improve but the incidence of sepsis will not
4
decrease.
Ultra-fast diagnostic innovation/technology to identify the cause of sepsis for each individual is
1
required to use precision treatments.

96
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.87 Dispersion: 0.93


No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
To stop sepsis and bacterial infections in general still requires a lot of research: to develop new
42
antibiotics on the one hand, but also to achieve speedy diagnosis.
Research on the treatment and cure of sepsis has to be fostered and coordinated internationally. 29

Empirical studies on the number of sepsis cases worldwide are needed. 12

R&I efforts have to be accompanied by an effective and global hygiene strategy. 8

The US example above is a pragmatic way to get reliable figures. 1

97
4.7 Breakthrough innovations have led to cures for major age-related diseases (e.g. dementia,
Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s) in the EU

Number of respondents: 69

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Better understanding of the biology of neurodegenerative diseases and their functional impact will be
50
the basis of successful therapy.
Prevention should be the focus: Native Okinawans and other human groups showing very low rates of
40
such diseases may give indications of efficient prevention strategies.
New tools for early diagnosis (by periodical screening) and treatment are needed. 24
Breakthroughs and game-changers are being announced all the time, but therapeutic solutions are
22
either flops or a long way from market.
Availability of health data along with individual DNA for large populations could lead to identification of
6
why some people are spared neurodegenerative disease and means to transfer the success factors.
At least 700,000 people in Europe have multiple sclerosis (MS), we rarely see this disease mentioned
in research programmes. Something seems to go wrong in how neurodegenerative diseases are 4
studied.
Causality research is important for predictions - in order to detect groups of risk and set in with
4
prevention or detect citizens at risk at an early stage (e.g., for municipalities).
Efforts to provide a breakthrough solution have continously failed in the past and little promise is seen
4
today.
Goals in countering ageing will be achieved only by improving universal access to primary health care,
3
fostering policies tackling social and economic problems having strong impact on patients' lives.
There will not be significant advances in the fight against ageing until genetic engineering of embryos
2
is allowed.
A 2016 article in Nature reports promising results in trials for a new drug for Alzheimer's. 1

98
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.44 Dispersion: 0.67

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The understanding of what causes some of the age-related diseases (e.g., Parkinson's) is
61
incomplete, with theories still being developed and tested.
Strategies for prevention should be the focus of research. 40

R&I investments in new and emergent research methods are highly significant. 38

Causality studies for detection of high risk patient groups 5

99
4.8 Epigenetic-based technologies are used in the first non-medical human applications (for
example to stay slim, lifestyle)

Number of respondents: 51

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
It takes time to turn current knowledge into applications. Research is currently only starting to
understand the complex regulatory networks in the human body (genetics in general, DNA, RNA, 41
signals etc.). A lot of basic research is still needed.
Epigenetics-based technologies are already tested in first medical cases, especially the treatment of
cancer (USA), but not yet in non-medical human applications. It is likely that these will follow with 24
some years of delay.
Tight regulation of research and innovation is likely, given the possibility to imagine extreme, even
12
terrifying applications.
The tools for gene editing are improving rapidly and first applications are being tested. Furthermore,
experimentation with gene editing produces knowledge about other functions of the regulatory network 11
of the human body.
Public debate must be organised to allow citizens to become informed on something as important as
7
their own health.
The public debate about the pros and cons of interfering with the human body's regulatory networks
7
will be fierce and difficult.
There will be significant demand for non-medical applications from the time the first trials are positive. 3

Epigenetics-based diagnostics will probably be used for e.g. lifestyle advice in the near future. 1

100
Significance of R&I

1.02
Average: 3.92 Dispersion:
No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The complex regulatory network of genes is not yet understood. This is necessary not only for
developing applications but also for the related risk assessments and for resolving ethical debates. A 49
lot of basic research is still needed.
An International Summit on Human Gene Editing: A Global Discussion (Olson 2016) sums up that
Gene Editing is only a part of the R&I picture. Epigenetic questions have to be understood and 15
examined if gene editing is to be applied in the right way.
Proponents argue that, if somatic therapies are developed, in theory nearly every disease can be
cured. These claims need to be monitored and investigated carefully. The public debate needs to be 14
supported with scientific data.
Most importantly is life style prevention. Healthy living, active aging and more actuate tools for early
5
diagnostic with the implementation of biomarkers (finding the hormone and blockers)
As in DNA sequencing, commercial applications will be offered long before we will have a sufficient
1
understanding to provide solid advice e.g. regarding lifestyle.

101
4.9 In the EU, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) that were incurable in 2016 can be cured by
genome editing

Number of respondents: 52

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Technically possible very soon, but the off-target effects are still unknown. To use it for routine cures,
39
many safety questions have to be answered.
The genetic make-up of an individual is not the only factor influencing the manifestation of a disease. 36
The major ethical question that might hamper early applications are the inherited diseases - is it
21
ethically permissible to cure them with unknown effects on the next generations?
Genome editing assumes that therapy can be introduced early in the natural history of NCDs which is
11
likely to be harder than currently envisaged.
Gene editing as treatment needs to follow much greater understanding conditions that affect gene
7
expression including the role of the intestinal microbiome in health and disease.
Non-communicable diseases are often due to lifestyle, and hence genome editing will not be able to
6
change lifestyle habits (tobacco, obesity, physical inactivity), which will still exist.

102
Significance of R&I

Average: 4 Dispersion: 0.84

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Genomic inheritance is not the only factor driving the development of a disease, so other research is
47
needed to reach the state of affairs in the statement.
Genome-editing opens up other paths which risks need to be addressed asap with appropriate
22
investments.
Genome-editing will completely change the definition of what can be cured via pharmaceuticals
14
because it opens up possible R&I for completely deleting inherited diseases.
Influence of the intestinal microbiome needs research before consideration of gene editing Tang et al.
6
Endothelial TLR4 and the microbiome drive cerebral cavernous malformations. Nature.

103
4.10 Tissue engineering/ regenerative medicine is used routinely in the EU to repair tissues and
organs

Number of respondents: 60

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
It will take a long time until the processes need to create complex organs are understood. 38
There is a lot of tissue engineering available, e.g. biofabrication of human tissue (see the Tissue
36
Engineering journal series), so the field appears to be spreading quickly.
Stem cells have proven hard to control, but more specialised cells will be used routinely soon in
15
modulating a range of cell-mediated processes, including tissue repair.
Not many regenerative medicines have proven successful, whether medically or commercially. 15
3D human tissue culture models of disease allow testing of regenerative medicine approaches
14
instead of animal models currently used in preclinical studies.
Decades of tissue engineering experience plus increasing accuracy of disease models improve the
10
efficacy of regenerative medicine strategies.
As, in many countries, stem cells are not allowed to be used for medical purposes, this will never be
4
routine.
Maybe this invention could be a 'non medical drug' applied in creams and lotions - meaning shorter
1
time to market, as it helps patients with eczema, psoriasis or even burned tissue etc.
Standardization of processes and procedures will be needed to safe-guard quality and safety. A
1
challenge for the regulatory process.

104
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.43 Dispersion: 0.51

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
A lot of basic research is necessary to understand and reproduce the different sorts of cells. 44

Multidisciplinary input is needed especially in respect of new materials and signalling. 34


Because co-cultures may cure defective organs or allow implants with different cells, they hold a lot of
22
scientific promise in the future.
Many ethical problems have to be solved, especially if stem cells are to be used. 17
Only major public investments will deliver strong proof-of-concept studies that will then attract
10
substantial, necessary private investment.
Appropriate technology has to be developed to ensure safety and quality of cell-based treatments. 9

Large engineered replacement tissues will require technologies that enable fully vascularized grafts 5
Research needed on creation of microenvironments modeled on stem cell niches that provide specific
5
cues and physical properties, or have the capacity to genetically manipulate target cells
If tissue engineering is sucessfully applied, long term effects should be considered. 4
Research needed how age, disease state, and the microbiome of the patient affect regeneration and
4
technologies that promote a desirable immune response.

105
4.11 Cancer treatment is so successful in the EU that all cancers are categorized as "chronic
disease" or are cured

Number of respondents: 64

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The variety of cancers is enormous and until common and viable targets in treatment are identified,
51
there is little chance to achieve this.
Prevention strategies need to be reinforced with the same determination as treatment; and funding
46
needs to be used to develop strategies to cure cancer.
New solutions for early detection of cancers have emerged in the recent years. 21
Cancer is also caused by cumulative genetic degeneration. Even if one life could be prolonged by
19
curing several cancer events, in time, the final outcome would be cancer anyway.
Technologies and public support systems for continued monitoring post cancer treatment is key to
4
achieve this goal.
Cancers with very bad prognoses, such as stomach cancer and pancreas cancer, still need a serious
2
focus on treatment: these are not chronic diseases!
Over 1.5 billion USD has been invested in cancer vaccines in the last 5 years. 1

106
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.51 Dispersion: 0.57

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Understanding the reasons why the cancer diseases develop should guide prevention strategies 47

Understanding this disease needs additional research. 32

The early detection solutions need further validation. 20


Research is needed to identify biomarkers to enable effective post treatment monitoring, particularly
10
non-invasive, inexpensive methods.
The aim can only be to make cancer a chronic disease + increase quality of life. 5
Research is needed why some people stay well while others get cancer to enable better treatment
5
and more effective prevention.
Technologies for self-monitoring combined with patient education need to be developed to enable
4
patients to better manage their continued care.
Combination therapies should be a major aim for R&D to avoid resistance. 4

Research needs to be focused on those cancers which are difficult to treat today. 2

107
4.12 Precision medicine and customized healthcare that targets a patient’s specific genetic
makeup (adaptation of DNA and RNA according to specific wishes) is offered in European
healthcare systems

Number of respondents: 59

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The genetic make-up of an individual is not the only factor influencing the manifestation of a disease,
40
therefore adaptation of DNA and RNA will not be offered by healthcare systems.
Sensors and apps will soon be widely used in medicine, making it possible to monitor patients under
27
patient-specific medicine.
Needs more research and more cost-cutting. 17
We are more than genes. Genetic make-up has to come together with a deeper understanding of
11
DNA and cellular self-organization on a concrete environment.
European public opinion will be generally reticent with respect to drugs targeting an individual's
10
genetic makeup.
Manifestation of disease is a function of how genes are expressed which can vary due to multiple
factors, including the microbiome, all of which needs to be understood for effective precision 7
medicine.
Organ-on-chip technologies will enable the development of precision medicines in an efficient and
5
cost-effective way.
As mentalities evolve, medicine will have carried out a paradigm shift that will encompass the
4
targeting of specific genetic makeup and human enhancement in general.
The US Food and Drug Administration has recently approved targeted drugs. 3

Precision medicine will not be individual but based on identifying high risk groups using Big Data. 1

108
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.08 Dispersion: 1.05

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
New experimental research procedures for precision medicine have to be developed and adopted
43
widely.
Programs will have to be developed and then scaled up to train clinicians in individualized medicine. 27
Drugs targeting an individual's genetic makeup could be a Pandora box. Hence very strict framework
21
of applications should be available and tightly controlled.
Close monitoring of all patients that participate in personalized medicine will be required creating
7
massive data flows, security, privacy and related ethical concerns.
Medicine continues to be practiced rather than being a science. Huge research is needed at the
5
cellular level, tissue, systems and epidemiologically for precision medicine to come into common use.
Better understanding of the human microbiome is important to understand its effect on (and possible
3
utilization for) personalized medicine,
Personalized medicine is likely to require greater patient involvement in treatment including
3
technologies for self-monitoring and related patient education.

109
110
4.13 Data on interactions between patients and their personal environment (including abiotic
and biotic factors) are routinely and systematically collected for diagnosis and the creation of
personalized therapy plans

Number of respondents: 59

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Combining structured data (genotype, phenotype, genomics) with semi- or unstructured data
48
(lifestyle, environmental, health economics data) still poses multiple challenges.
There is a huge step between the identification and collection of data, on the one hand, and the
40
creation of therapy plans as a common practice, on the other.
This asks for a holistic human perspective that is much broader than the medical perspective on
13
health.
Deep learning will help in the analysis of the data, structured data and unstructured data are quite
9
helpful, if pattern can be found.
This is inevitable provided the ethical use of data can be properly managed. 8
The combination of structured and unstructured data will be extremely useful in the quest for patterns
7
by means of AI strategies.
The US government's Precision Medicine Initiative (PMI) supports research looking beyond genetics
5
and biology, at behavioral and environmental factors.
A clear legal and ethical framework is needed to prevent misuse and misinterpretation of such
5
complex data sets, including IT security measures.
Just because data collection is uninformative does not mean it will not be done. 3

111
Significance of R&I

1.24
Average: 3.86 Dispersion:
No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The correlations between the different factors still have to be identified and analyzed on a scientific
49
basis.
Scientific databases have to be build up and filled with data. 33
The EU needs something analogous to the U.S. Precision Medicine Initiative involving 1 million
12
volunteers providing genetic, environmental and other data to succeed.
Self-learning systems such as IBM Watson will drive this development. 10
Sharing of data between countries is difficult and a barrier for innovation in this field. Data on register
8
level and easier collaboration between EU countries id needed and discussed ethically.

112
5. Information, Communication, Brain & Media Technologies
Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category
no. resp. Significance of
Significance
5.1 More than 80% of the population older than 92 4.08 0.82 Uncertain
12 years has an avatar as a personal
assistant.
5.2 Functional brain-to-machine interfaces are 87 4.26 0.93 Later
used by 50% of the EU population for work
or entertainment.
5.3 Brain-to-machine communication via 78 4.23 0.76 Uncertain
brainwaves is possible (e.g. controlling
machines with brainwaves).
5.4 More than 20% of the EU population has 79 4.13 0.90 Later
coupled sensors to their brains to enhance
their sense spectrum (infrared, ultraviolet,
vibration, magnetic fields etc.).
5.5 More than 20% of the EU population has a 75 4.05 1.40 Later
brain implant for telecommunication which
is activated just by thinking.
5.6 Quantum computers are available on the 78 4.41 0.70 Uncertain
European market.
5.7 DNA computing allows a new era of 46 4.36 0.63 Later
environmental scanning.
5.8 Computers with graphene micro-processors 63 4.28 0.99 Uncertain
are sold for the first time on the European
market.
5.9 More than 70% of all distributed systems 69 3.63 0.90 Soon
use blockchain technology to build trust,
e.g. in person-to-person interactions, for all
direct business transactions and the
traceability of supply chains.
5.10 Quantum cryptography is used by three- 58 4.31 0.79 Uncertain
quarters of EU corporations for secure
digital communication.
5.11 All mobile and remote electronic devices 85 4.14 0.82 Uncertain
use technologies that are energy-self-
sufficient and completely wireless.
5.12 Half of the formerly passive materials and 85 3.81 1.15 Later
things (walls, streets, furniture, signs)
become interactive and react to their
surroundings via sensors, adaptive materials
and ubiquitous electronics.
5.13 Implants (small chips under the skin) or 78 3.29 1.83 Later
smart-ink tattos for access control,
replacement of keys, or the control of
therapies are used by the majority of the EU
population.

113
5.1 More than 80% of the population older than 12 years has an avatar as a personal assistant

Number of respondents: 89

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The progress in AI emotion recognition and communication increases chances of avatar adoption in
54
the next decade.
Technology facilitates communication but doesn’t replace real human interaction. 47

The personal assistant responds to the shifting demands of an aging society. 38

There are large categories of people reluctant to virtual reality. 32


"Personal assistance" is too broad a concept that an avatar can capture, they will only serve for very
31
limited purposes - but for those purposes they will be a real help.
Robots provide social and medical care for the elderly. 23

Human-machine interfaces will be intuitive and multimodal. 23

Semantic and knowledge model-based search engines will be able to give relevant answers. 16
People get used to avatars to replace them in games more and more, they will soon want to have one
16
in real life.
Avatars will not work as a substitute for personal interaction and will not see a huge uptake because
12
they will be seen as too cumbersome, apart from niche scenarios.
Interaction with concrete or abstract objects will be facilitated by AI and speech recognition, but will
11
not take the form of a "personal assistant" persona.
It will take substantial time to prove that the data gained by the avatar will not be misused by third
8
parties, as well as substantial long-term benefits, in order to establish trust in the technology.
In another generation having an "on-line" persona will be taken for granted. 8
Real-life experiences are increasingly valued over and above virtual existences. Read E.M. Forster's
4
short story 'The Machine Stops'.
Elderly people lacking sufficient human interaction may prefer avatars but social pressure is unlikely
3
to broaden acceptance beyond defined communities such as techs, military, etc.
The main statement is not considering the prevailing market-economic philosophy and policy needing
1
a large part of the world population to work for others at varying salary scales, participation, etc.
The concept of an avatar is to represent a person, not to assist a person. 1

114
Significance of R&I

Average: 4 Dispersion: 0.92

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research needs to address questions on how virtual assistants can correctly understand human
77
goals and intentions.
Progress in natural language processing needs to be made. 41

There is need to assess the psychological impact of virtual assistants. 35


At least as big as the technological challenge will be the societal challenge to make people
23
comfortable and accepting of avatars.
AI competences and technologies are important for Europe to be able to address these needs from
17
multi cultural European perspective
As soon as a rudimentary market for personal assistent avatars is functional, the development is
11
greatly accelerated.
Research to redefine the meaning of 'humanity' is necessary. 9
Artificial intelligence will require more and faster computation capabilities. Particularly, etherogeneous
9
integration at hardware-level is required to support server clusters advancements.
Real needs (and/or European challenges) driven research will be recognized 7

Existing European research results have to be known and explored 5


PAs are likely to first have large penetration in schools to improve education and in professions where
2
multiple details and people need to be tracked.
Helping assistance offer a means of social control - take your meds, don't smoke-so may be favored
1
by authoritarian societies - big brother is with you!

115
5.2 Functional brain-to-machine interfaces are used by 50% of the EU population for work or
entertainment

Number of respondents: 83

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The design and implementation of an effective general-purpose brain-to-machine interfaces still
75
requires significant research efforts.
Brain-to-machine interfaces have enormous potential for individuals with disabilities, but are unlikely
55
to find wide-spread application in the general population in the near future.
Employees will resist the introduction of such interfaces due to fears of mind-control and violations of
33
privacy.
These technologies will be much more popular, and therefore more readily adopted, for
25
entertainment rather than work purposes.
The design and implementation of effective general-purpose brain-to-machine interfaces still requires
21
multidisciplinary research.
Human thinking and social interaction is embodied in human bodies. This substantially limits the
13
range of applications of brain-machine-interfaces.
Biological, ethical, and socio/cultural barriers will have to be addressed to enable broad use of brain-
11
to-machine technologies.
Brain machine interface is likely to be used in surgery and other activities requiring rapid interaction
4
of teams of people using various automated devices.
Pilots, large process managers, political campaign managers, SWAT teams, others will all gain
1
significant advantage from effective B-M links. A condition of employment.

116
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.27 Dispersion: 0.97

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
It will be necessary to devise non invasive and easy-to-use technologies to encourage people to use
64
brain-computer interfaces in general settings.
It is essential to understand the challenge to privacy within a work-environment with pervasive brain-
51
to-machine interaction through such interfaces.
Research needs to develop commercially feasible alternatives to the EEG technology. 26
Inter and multidisciplinary R&I in neuro-ergonomics (neuro-feedback for divided attention) for new
23
disruptive Brain-Machine-Interfaces devices, or evolutioned devices (mobiles, etc.) will be crucial.
Legal issues will take longer to resolve than practical realisation issues, especially for work use of
14
BM-interfaces
Collaboration with people with disability or serious disease (ex Alzheimer) is essential for progress
13
and human-oriented innovation
New forms of psychoneural disorders are likely to emerge requiring research and creating new forms
1
of therapy, insurance coverage, etc.

117
5.3 Brain-to-machine communication via brainwaves is possible (e.g. controlling machines with
brainwaves)

Number of respondents: 70

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The current interface technology is very crude at this point, but will see tremendous advances. 53
If achieving this is at all possible, it will help many disabled people to control the machines that assist
51
them.
It is already possible to steer implants with signals from brain/ nerves, but this needs a lot of training
45
and learning. Therefore, it will take a long time until brainwaves can be used directly.
Combination of existing sensing technologies with cognitive and situational awareness technologies
11
will drive usability and adoption of such technology.
As already pointed out, some early prototypes already exist. The question does not specify how
8
broadly such devices should be available to justify positive answer.
This is not an argument: what exactly do you mean by brain waves? EEG, Local Field Potentials,
5
etc.?
Some prototypes are about to enter the market already, as other need some more detailed research. 3

118
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.25 Dispersion: 0.73

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Advances are needed in brain-to-machine communication beyond information exchange for
55
communication of other mental states (feelings etc.).
Research on the ethical implications of such technology (mind hacking, mind-control etc.) is important. 50
Science should clarify how brainwaves are evoked actively and why people are able to use alpha
waves, e.g. for meditation. Then one might go one step further to use waves actively for machines but 23
also for relaxation techniques.
Brainwaves is rather broad word. It would be useful to have few more detailed options, like sensing the
18
nerve signals to e.g. speech muscles
Neuro-engineering, even neuro-nanotechnology, could be new promising R&I disciplines for new
15
talented people and disruptive technologies/devices.
Neurological (bio) research, sensor technology, plus modeling, complex situational awareness (IT) are
8
key investment domains to enable the realization of such vision.
Reliable and highly resolved brain-machine interaction requires very controlled, disturbance-free
4
environments, which limits the widespread use.
Training of pilots, teleoperators, large equipment operators would benefit from direct B-M links to
2
speed up learning to operate complex equipment, particularly under threatening circumstances.
Piloting aircraft and control of drones or other teleoperation could significantly benefit and will drive
1
research with military applications and those for disabled in lead with entertainment.

119
5.4 More than 20% of the EU population has coupled sensors to their brains to enhance their
sense spectrum (infrared, ultraviolet, vibration, magnetic fields etc.)

Number of respondents: 78

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Most implants aiming at the expansion of the sensory abilities will be limited to individuals with health
problems (such as restoring lost abilities), while sensory- or mood-enhancers will be generally 63
banned.
A vast majority of Europeans will remain reticent, fearing interference with other nervous functions. 47
Ethical debates will plague attempts to use or make available commercially, on a large scale, any but
26
the most basic technologies of this type.
Neuro-feedback experiments show that the brain can quickly adapt to accommodate new flows of
17
information.
New applications will emerge parallel to enhancements in sensor technologies. First "new" senses
13
may be similar to those that some animals have, magnetism, odor detection, wider visibility etc.
This will largely depend on whether data transmission is practical without implantation / surgical
9
procedures.
If communications is one type of sensing, then new applications in "making sense" in social networks
4
may enhance the capabilities of groups, not only individuals.
Sensory enhancements such as glasses and hearing aids will continue to improve and will enable the
elderly to maintain functions. A GPS sensor, or an instant readout clock, or similar tech, may find 3
acceptance.
Neuro-feedback experiments do not show that the brain can adapt to other types of sensory input, as
3
the sensory modality is still a "standard modality".
Enhanced sensing is likely to be in tandem with improvements in B-M interfacing and include
2
computer augmentation for enhanced situation awareness.
The sensory enhancements will go through enhancements of peripheral senses (e.g., haptic,
2
interfaces to peripheral nerves), that are easier to interact with.
Enhanced situation awareness may be useful for miners, crowd control, other applications such as
1
weather prediction may have occupational advantages.

120
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.13 Dispersion: 0.93

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research will have to demonstrate the complete safety of any sensors / implants altering perception. 55
Current science (mostly) understands how 'typical' human perception works, but still has a long way
38
to go to adequately grasp how the brain might process UV or magnetic fields.
Neuro-engineering, even neuro-nanotechnology, could be new promising R&I disciplines for new
11
talented people and disruptive technologies/devices.
Sensors alone will not be enough but a significant "artificial distributed pre-processing" is needed,
10
including part of the processing takes place in cloud.
This requires us to combine multidisciplinary knowledge and holistic & system thinking to evaluate all
10
possible impacts.
Magnetics, ultraviolet and other sensing can become critically important in extreme environments
4
including long duration space missions.
This topic will pick up pace quickly beyond EU R&I efforts once any even so simple prototypes are
4
available. When that happens depends on fundamental research.

121
5.5 More than 20% of the EU population has a brain implant for telecommunication which is
activated just by thinking

Number of respondents: 75

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
There will be great resistance to implants, both for ethical reasons and due to fear of unpredictable
71
social impact.
A comprehensive regulatory framework for implants will have to be developed, with medical implants
52
probably being the first on the list.
As hearing aid implants are already in use, the proof of concept is close. Any technology needs pilot
17
users and therefore implants will be used initially for specific needs.
Military, police, other hazardous occupations offer distinct advantages to use of implants and are likely
7
initial markets.
Telecommunication requires direct external input to a person's brain, which will not be accepted
4
unless there is a great benefit to the user. Otherwise users feel remote controlled.
The figure may be achieved if one takes into account the black market for implants. 3
Surgical implants are a health risk and problematic non-invasive approaches will be more widely used;
research should focus on such technologies and not on invasive procedures that entail long-term 2
health risk.
Discussion on ethical issues will severely slow down the market readiness and legal status of such
1
implants, likely because of remote control fears.
With recent papers on "smartphone brain scanner", this achievement can be much faster than we
1
think.

122
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.09 Dispersion: 1.36

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Both the respective infrastructure and data protection regulations need to be developed. 46

Powering implants in unobtrusive ways is not yet a trivial problem and still needs substantial research. 37
The problem may be solved gradually in three areas. Receiving and transmitting the signals and
separately controlling the communications. Any of the areas may proceed independently from each 12
other.
Inter and multidisciplinary R&I in neuro-ergonomics
(neuro-feedback for divided attention) for new disruptive
10
Brain-Machine-Interfaces devices, or evolutioned devices
(mobiles, etc.) will be crucial.
Acceptance of this will be driven more by the perceived safety of implants than by improvements in
5
safety or documentation thereof.

123
5.6 Quantum computers are available on the European market

Number of respondents: 76

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Breakthroughs are slow but steady in quantum computers (according to Michio Kaku). 61

Google open sourced its quantum computing software. 22


Quantum computers will be taken in use in very/rather narrow niche applications, possibly as special
22
extra devices to traditional computers.
Quantum computers are commercially available today, limited to a small number of qubits and
18
specialised hardware (e.g., DWave). The scale and generality will keep steadily improving.
Experts from Maryland University have created a five qubits trapped ion device that can be expanded
15
up to 100 qubits.
Quantum algorithms must be developed before Quantum computers can surpass traditional ones in
14
general-purpose applications.
Unless solid state portable solutions become available, quantum computers will be used in niche
10
applications.
Cost and size of a general purpose quantum computer with known technologies a barrier - $10 billion
5
plus size equal to a football field (https://www.osa-opn.org/home/articles/volume_27/october_2016/f).
Quantum simulators by 2035, general purpose quantum computers cannot be forecast at this time with
3
high confidence. 2 decades? 5?

124
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.39 Dispersion: 0.77

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
There is need for basic research to understand quantum logic. 56

There needs to be further development before general purpose quantum computers are scalable. 37
Quantum computing requires a radically new way of thinking about algorithms development and
29
programming.
The decoherence problem still awaits new technical solutions. 27

Computing with mixed quantum states need to be understood. 6

Error correction is a major factor in scaling quantum computers. 4

125
5.7 DNA computing allows a new era of environmental scanning

Number of respondents: 45
No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Silicon-based computing and its applications are not an adequate reference for what DNA computing
34
could achieve.
Most of the hype around DNA computing is based on the theoretical potential of the underlying
30
physical resource.
Before we use DNA computers "in the wild" there are huge societal issues that need to be
11
understood and solved.
A few years ago already, Israeli researchers inserted DNA 'nanobots' in living cockroaches and used
6
them to accomplish a basic pre-programmed task.
DNA computers can potentially identify biotoxins or dangerous infectious diseases and potentially
4
counter the toxic agent replicating copies as required.
DNA computers appear to have applications to detect and potentially destroy cancerous cells. 3

126
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.36 Dispersion: 0.72

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research on DNA computers capable of detecting several antibodies in the blood and performing
subsequent calculations based on this input needs to advance. 32

The current technologies used for DNA nanobots leave them exposed (and unworkable) to the biology
15
of animal (including human) bodies - so solutions to this problem should be explored first.
Research on DNA computers may improve early detection of serious diseases 10
DNA/RNA mechanisms may be used for many promising applications, using biological mechanisms
9
for sensing/controlling/actuating synthetic bio-logical systems that interact with ICT.
DNA computing is far beyond quantum computing. It will require totally new computation paradigms,
1
training of people to understand how to build such computer physically, materials, etc.

127
5.8 Computers with graphene micro-processors are sold for the first time on the European
market

Number of respondents: 61
No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Graphene is still at the stage of basic research, and its use in a computer is still just theory. 42

There are other, better possibilities than graphene for the building of micro-processors. 27
There will be graphene elements in the processors but they will still largely be based on silicon
25
technology.
The past teaches that technological revolutions are generally faster than expected. 18
Graphene processors hold the promise of higher clock speed, improved temperature management,
5
lower power consumption and potentially lower cost of production with 2D materials.
Graphene processors are at least 10 000 faster than traditional, and will create new fields. 3

Lower heat opens promise for more compact packing and applications such smart sensors. 1

128
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.30 Dispersion: 1.00

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Given the basic state of achievements, future R&I will play a crucial role. 40

If such a computer really works, it is very fast and offers new possibilities in research. 24

With the speed of graphene-based processors, new technial applications of the material will boom. 21

Given that it is still in basic research and quite theoretical, practical applications are highly unlikely. 13
Research efforts on graphene should aim high speed signals transport rather than computation itself
8
(Graphene-based transistors). Even more interesting are 2D materials beyond Graphene.
Graphene-based transistors due to low heat may be able to yield multiple smart devices and
incorporation into graphene based supercapacitors to improve power management / optimization of 5
smart grids
Given that only a single transistor has been shown working, we are still very early in the chain. 2

Much R&I will be needed to build microprocessors from transistors. And then to manufacture them. 1

129
5.9 More than 70% of all distributed systems use blockchain technology to build trust, e.g. in
person-to-person interactions, for all direct business transactions and the traceability of supply
chains

Number of respondents: 66

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Blockchain technologies are currently undergong rapid development. 59
Blockchain technology will be a standard feature of many distributed systems, but will actually be
35
used only in selected cases of transactions.
The potential of blockchain technologies is overrated due to media hype. 27
Blockchain is the carrier tech that introduces digital identities for people, legal entities, and objects,
10
and therefore enables trust on the internet (trusted digital twins), leading to trusted apps.
Blockchain technologies sometimes lead to mistrust - the assumption that people try to hide
4
something.
Blockchain does not build trust between the interacting parties. It provides a ledger solution only. In
4
interactions where trust is already available, the ledger is not needed.
Blockchain is essential to the functioning of smart cities that incorporate autonomous systems with
3
human agents to enable traceability.
Blockchain can contribute to food safety through source traceability and certification of sources. 3
Blockchain can contribute to more effective response to disasters enabling more precise identification
1
of damage and loss and lower cost claims processing with improved fraud control.
It is currently unclear how blockchain can be used in most distributed systems. The required
1
processing capacity to achieve all properties will impair its wide use on distributed systems.
Blockchain technology will be used to keep record of all the learning instances a person has
1
participated in during their lifetime (universal academic record).

130
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.66 Dispersion: 0.85

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Blockchain is promising but still vulnerable to malicious attacks, so it needs a lot a research to
41
make it more reliable.
Potential Blockchain applications are widespread but need to be validated in real implementations
19
to validate market acceptance and regulative issues.
Blockchain technology has great practical potential but is surrounded by mistrust about its uses,
16
which will impede its widespread application. After a spike in research, interest will die out.
Blockchain is the combination of crypto and distributed systems (BFT) technologies creating a
15
new unexplored field that will require another 10 years before it settles
Blockchain technology can be important in environments where human agents interact with
6
autonomous agents owned or operating under control of competing service providers.
File systems such as Interplanetary File System that embed a blockchain identifier can enable
more rapid internet search and download particularly where time lags can be significant. 1
www.ipfs.io.

131
5.10 Quantum cryptography is used by three-quarters of EU corporations for secure digital
communication

Number of respondents: 55

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
So far, 'quantum speed-up' has not been unambiguously achieved with any prototype
29
quantum computer.
Timing is difficult to predict but it is quite likely that quantum computing will one day
25
ignite the major and fast transition in cryptography.
Quantum computing endangers the current public-key cryptographic systems, which
20
raises issues about wide-scale adoption.
Post-quantum mathematical cryptography will persist for less-demanding applications.
Quantum cryptography will co-exist with it, will improve, become cheap and ubiquitous, 11
but slowly.
Quantum cryptography is just a beginning for other quantum applications. 9
Quantum cryptography exists for key distribution. Post-quantum crypto will address key
9
management and keep systems secure.
Basic quantum computing security technologies exist today, so it should not take too
2
long.

132
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.31 Dispersion: 1.00


No.
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I of
votes
Develop quantum-resistant cryptography to deal with the advent of quantum computers. 43
Increase the efficiency of information exchange in quantum key distribution. 34
Investing in R&I is important. Limited availability of these new capabilities create a major
14
imbalance in global market.
Critical and groundbreaking advances in strong cryptography usually happen in
13
academia. Investment in research is therefore important.
China, U.S., S. Korea, Japan, UK, EU as well as Google, Microsoft, IBM and others are
making major investments in quantum computing. Accelerating research results with 6
industry academia partnerships
In parallel work on possible impacts should be done 5

133
5.11 All mobile and remote electronic devices use technologies that are energy-self-sufficient
and completely wireless

Number of respondents: 84

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The number of compact, energy-self-sufficient, remote terminal units is increasing. 67
A large spectrum of energy-harnessing solutions from different sources are
59
emerging.
Full replacement of existing technologies in this domain (all devices, 100%) will only
31
happen if they are ruled out by regulatory measures.
Wireless charging is already on the market 20
Intelligence in combining all available energies in nature will accelerate the progress. 8
I don't consider wireless charging as "energy self-sufficiency", but large-scale
7
availability of wireless power will make it feel as if it was.
Disconnected products are useless and therefore any self sufficiency is low value.
Wireless solutions are obvious as well as energy harvesting but these do not imply 6
self sufficiency.
Short- to medium-range wireless power transfer will charge mobile devices. Such a
transfer will be mainly directed on the device itself rather than spread within the 6
environment.
Devices become so small/thin/foils that they have no room for connectors, only radio
3
waves (from light to wireless) interfaces with them.
Energy self-sufficiency rules out any form of energy made available with the purpose
2
of using it in the device.
Very defiicult to predict if or when ALL mobile and remote devices will be energy self-
1
sufficient and wireless...

134
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.13 Dispersion: 0.81

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research is needed for energy harvesting of various types: solar, indoor lighting,
76
vibrational, thermal, biological, chemical, electromagnetic.
Wireless Energy Transmission and Battery Management are promising research and
48
innovation fields.
Promising research: self-sustainability and virtually perpetual operation of wireless
19
networks.
Research is needed on solid-state high-energy and high-power density of micro-energy
12
storage devices (batteries and supercapacitors)
One to three main harvesting mechanisms will dominate when mass market adoption
11
takes place. Solar being one of the most likely winners.
Energy consumption of devices has to be driven to minimum: research in this area is as
9
important as harvesting.
Processing power is further reduces by better chip technologies and integration 4
In case of wireless power transfer, the effects to organic tissues must be understood and
regulated. Research should focus on highly directional beams from transmitters to 2
receiver devices.
To allow AI to work with mobile devices, the facial, acoustic, etc. recognition algorithms
1
need to work with compression artefacts
Graphene-based processors and graphene supercapacitors are a promising pathway to
1
achieve this goal.

135
5.12 Half of the formerly passive materials and things (walls, streets, furniture, signs) become
interactive and react to their surroundings via sensors, adaptive materials and ubiquitous
electronics

Number of respondents: 84

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Tiny sensors that can be attached to any object about which they can provide
66
wirelessly different types of data are already on the market.
To reach "half of" (50%) the materials and things is very ambitious and will take a long
55
time.
Value of sensors requires also automated data processing, information management
and artificial intelligence. And a similar set of actuators. Evidently our physical 28
environment becomes active.
Privacy and security concerns will limit diffusion to specific applications and
24
environments.
Researchers already managed to combine photo-responsive fibers with thermo-
responsive gels, modelling a new hybrid material that can reconfigure itself multiple 10
times into different shapes when exposed to light and heat.
A large-scale use of "active material" is economic nonsense. 8
It is technologically easier and cheaper to build robots to maintain passive things, than
to make the things themselves active. Over 50% active maintenance will happen, but 4
50% active things may never.
Natural ecosystems already include many such features and may provide models for
2
achievement.
This will only happen because stock-keeping labels (a la NFC) count here; apart from
1
that, most things won't profit from such interaction.

136
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.84 Dispersion: 1.17

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
A lot of specific research on individual materials is needed to clarify where sensors can
66
be placed or how the material can be used directly as an active one.
Social implications and individual acceptance/rejection factors need to be investigated. 34
Research is needed on autonomous data processing and knowledge creation. 24
There is no need for all equipment and furniture to be active - no more R&I needed. 14
Sensors will be connected which means that each piece of material may not need its
own sensor or actuator. Example: Video camera over the table is a sensor for table 12
even if it is not embedded.
Research is needed in heterogeneous integration of smart sensors into materials as
well as heterogeneous integration of such systems to provide useful functions (e.g., 9
resource & energy optimisation)
Research should focus on multi-modal (gesture recogn., speech, etc.) human-machine
7
interfaces.
Citizens will pose limits to selfish economy-driven market push that just serves to
3
collect data about them.
Research on development of our brain capacity is more important 2

137
5.13 Implants (small chips under the skin) or smart-ink tattoos for access control, replacement
of keys, or the control of therapies are used by the majority of the EU population

Number of respondents: 76

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The majority of population will reject such implants, fearing reduced privacy. 50
Issues relating to long-term use of such devices are largely unknown, such as biological
47
impact, device life time, security updates and maintenance.
There will never be a single solution that fits all needs, is accepted by everybody (unless
34
imposed) and lasts forever.
The endless diversity of identification systems: magnetic strips, passwords, PIN
numbers, security questions, and dongles will be replaced by a single machine readable 19
chip.
Fixed solutions may not be needed. Wearable, detachable solutions (rings, pendants...)
are useful in case of multiple different identities. One identity only for a human being is 10
too restrictive.
Biometrics are such a "chip". 10
A Swedish company already uses microchips for its staff, allowing them to use the
6
photocopier and pay in the canteen.
For identification only, machine reading facial recognition may be enough and no added
4
digital technology is needed or they complement each other.
Long-term health risk of implants will favor non-invasive technologies. 2
Some of these things can already be done today. It is likely that the technologies take off
2
if privacy issues are solved.
QC code is cheaper and is widely used in Asia -
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2095576/rise-qr-code-and-how-it-has- 1
forever-changed-chinas-social-habits

138
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.31 Dispersion: 1.83

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
It is more a problem of acceptance and regulation than of technology. 54
Security of these implants is a promising research field. 31
There is interest in this area of research from big tech players (e.g., Google is exploring
18
the idea of electronics in the eye, held on a contact lens, to monitor health).
Research on biometrics controlled devices 8
The integration of such implants with human-machine interfaces could be considered 5
Non of the above 1

139
140
6. Manufacturing: Production Processes, Materials & Nanotechnology

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance of
Significance
6.1 With the introduction of new technologies 118 4.07 0.67 Uncertain
such as 3D printing, a significant proportion
of manufacturing is decentralised and
carried out either by consumers or local
businesses. As a result, industrial floor-space
in Europe shrinks by 50% (compared to
2016)
6.2 The “wetware revolution“ has resulted in 55 4.04 0.68 Uncertain
cell factories responsible for more than 50%
of all novel chemical and bio-molecular
production.
6.3 New synthetic molecules and organisms 76 4.25 0.67 Later
with functional properties that did not yet
exist in 2016 are used in more than 70 % of
heavy industrial production processes (i.e.,
fuel production, waste stream management,
etc.).
6.4 More than 80% of the CO2 from European 94 3.99 1.10 Later
industrial production is re-used.
6.5 More than 80% of critical rare materials are 105 4.03 0.89 Later
recycled in the EU.
6.6 Annual production of plastic in the EU is 92 4.11 0.69 Uncertain
reduced to less than 20 million tons (from
55 million tons in 2009).
6.7 Adaptive materials and surfaces that are 102 4.18 0.88 Soon
able to change their characteristics
according to user requirements appear in
consumer applications.
6.8 Self-healing, shape-shifting materials 86 3.89 1.25 Uncertain
reacting to light and heat are applied for the
first time in large-scale construction in the
EU.
6.9 Building materials strengthened by carbon 82 3.76 1.74 Uncertain
nanotubes can be found in more than 50%
of new constructions in the EU.
6.10 Nanotechnology is commercially deployed 85 4.01 1.35 Uncertain
to address bacterial infections.
6.11 Nano-rods (polymeric nanoparticles) are 67 4.03 1.41 Uncertain
routinely used to deliver medicine on a cell-
specific scale.

141
6.1 With the introduction of new technologies such as 3D printing, a significant proportion of
manufacturing is decentralised and carried out either by consumers or local businesses. As a
result, industrial floor-space in Europe shrinks by 50% (compared to 2016)

Number of respondents: 113


No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Current 3D printers have limited capabilities and can only print with a limited number of molecules.
61
To improve the range of outputs will require a lot of time.
Producers have already begun printing spare parts and small parts - this is a challenge for suppliers
51
in the very near future and will decrease their floor-space.
3D printing is used for component production only. Large parts of the floor space in Europe is used
36
for assembly and process industries which will never be replaced by 3D printing.
It will be used for special applications, e.g., medical (tailor-made) or prototypes. However, it will be
35
difficult for it to compete with large-scale production.
In every city, 3D printers can already be found - the Maker Movement supports the application of
21
this technology. Therefore, these changes will be very rapid.
Industrialization of 3D printing requires a seamless integration of 3D printing within the shopfloor,
19
shopfloor systems and post-processing.
New technology requires much longer time than 30 years to catch up with traditional technologies -
16
in 2040, Tech Bussiness will use 3D-printing but in narrow, specialized fields.
3D printing has advantages for a selected range of products with complex shapes. For mass
11
production 3D is unsuitable and too costly.
3D printing will be used within the manufacturing steps rather than substitute existing production
11
processes. This will allow achieving new features, mechanical and functional, on existing products.
3D printing will become the new industrial floor-space. 10
The main issue for additive processes: seamless integration with subtractive processes based on
an interoperable numerical control program and metallic material, currently proposed by hybrid 8
machines.
Large floor space for storage will shrink but the amount of decentralized floor space is likely to
increase as business looks to optimize overall operations. May have greater impact on 4
warehousing.
3D printing enables very rapid product change and adaptation to local conditions significantly
3
reducing packaging and shipping costs.
The roles will change. Suppliers will be seen more and more as a developer for the OEMs, and will
3
therefore be responsible for the 3D printing at the OEMs' assembly.
Industrial floor-space in Europe is needed also for locally 3D-manufactured products targeted for
2
European markets. Decentralisation of manufacturing will happen also in US and Asia.
3D printing allows manufacturing of components with higher mechanical properties and lower
2
weight replacing very soon the present spare parts and rethinking structures (plane, cars, etc.).
True. But changing technologies will also change the concept of industrial floor space, which will
2
remain fundamental in Europe, as it is vital for maintaining the world leadership of our community
3D printing has lot of limitations like the support for cantilever structures and compatibility to use
1
multiple extruder noses.
In many areas 3D printing will reduce process chains and floor-space significantly, but not by 50%,
1
because floor space is a function of product dimensions, too.

142
Floor space reduction has another cause and for disassembly we need the floor space that is made
1
free due to integrated flexible hybrid (additive/substractive) multiprinter-multimaterial flowlines.

Significance of R&I

Average: 4.06 Dispersion: 0.67

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research is still necessary regarding the possibilities for the use of different and more complex
94
molecules, modules, as well as the creation of larger parts.
Research should focus on both new, small-scale production processes and on their implications for
32
the workers.
Rethink the design process: take additive manufacturing into account and the product as a whole,
26
rather than assembling parts
3D printing research must go beyond aspects related to the 3D printing process and machine to
25
encompass a full production chain.
For large volume markets, create components as a replacement of normal production, might not be
the most sustainable way. Placing material only to add value to lower cost preforms shall be 16
considered
A lot of research is still needed to prevent people from printing with toxic materials, or from over-
13
exposure to toxic emissions when printing.
The integration of 3D printing within existing manufacturing processes should be easy, flexible and
8
automized. This is needed particularly for powder-based methods for metal printing.
To capture the added value of 3D printing - integration of novel functions and complexity at no cost -
6
engineering systems must enable a cost-effective design of one-off products for applications
It requires lot-size-1 for mass production costprice, zero-defect manufacturing, and Blockchain type
4
of automated quotation/ording/shipping/billing processes, all to be developed at higher levels
3D printing is already dealing with a great variety of materials: metals, polymers, concrete, food,
2
etc...creating a wide range of all new businesses.
Total cost of ownership and cost with hybrid process to compete with only CNC and injection-
2
molding manufacturing.

143
6.2 The “wetware revolution“ has resulted in cell factories responsible for more than 50% of all
novel chemical and bio-molecular production

Number of respondents: 53

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Cell factories could be an important factor in the production process of bio-based plastics. 38

Industrial-scale production at cell factories will still take a long time to develop. 28
Market introduction will be driven by the distinctive advantages of bioengineering initially favoring
15
small volume, specialty production.
Bioengineering linked with 3D printing can enable smart medical devices and implants adapted to
7
the physiology of specific patients.
The matter of bioethics will be a profound obstacle in this statement's realization. 7

144
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.02 Dispersion: 0.70

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
There is the need for standardizing the design, documentation and assembly of synthetic-biology
36
parts across academic institutions and industry.
Genetic parts must perform consistently if the goal is to set up industrial processes - researchers have
24
to overcome the challenge related to lack of reproducibility.
Having a technology is just a one part of a job - second is the matter of bioethics and law regulations. 17
For synthetic biology to scale, it must be cheaper than petroleum-based chemistry. This requires
9
research and requires switching health regulations to hazard-based, not risk-based.
Biorefineries with cell factories, enzymatic processes and chemical processes in combination will
8
need to undergo a long process of continuous improvements and developments (like oil refineries).
Bioengineering can result in products with unique features not possible with conventional technology
4
such as bioengineered wearable electronics or temperature adapting clothing.
Bioengineering may enable food additives to be concocted to suit the metabolic requirements of
2
specific segments of the population.
Bioengineering reactors may become as common as 3D printers deployed to hospitals with unique
2
chemicals and unique devices produced on site based on patient characteristics.

145
6.3 New synthetic molecules and organisms with functional properties that did not yet exist in
2016 are used in more than 70 % of heavy industrial production processes (i.e., fuel production,
waste stream management, etc.)

Number of respondents: 74

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
To be able to produce the right organisms at such a large scale will take time. 46
The use of synthetic molecules and organisms becomes widespread in industrial processes due to
29
the need to establish more sustainable processes.
To enable large-scale industrial production, the cost of novel functional molecules/materials needs to
24
be significantly lower.
One needs to understand better these processes and their side-reactions and secondary effects in
19
order to convince the public of their safety.
Specialty chemicals are a mature industry. Change is likely to be gradual due to extensive product
9
test. Drivers are feature advantages and total cost.
Industrial culture needs to change to favour innovation over established practices. 9

It is good rule of a thumb to say that it takes at least 50 years for innovation to kill old technology. 6
It may be that the "right" molecules or organisms were already in place in 2016, and just needed
6
proper implementation/testing.
It will depend strongly on the economic models, the cost of energy, and the possible incentives put in
5
place by public bodies.
If you call solar fuels (H2O + electra surplus/peak + CO2 => CH4, CH3OH, etc.) new functional
4
materials, then we need them on a massive scale after 2030.
We should be aware that biomolecules can be in certain cases manufactured with non sustainable
3
processes. Their selection should take this feature into account.
What looks today as an opportunity could become very soon a necessity, generating strong pressure
2
on research.

146
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.24 Dispersion: 0.63

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Physicists have just started understanding the early stages of synthetic fuel production. Research is
44
still needed to unravel the entire, complex reaction mechanism.
Synthetic life, and the research and development that supports it, requires a lot of regulation and
34
standardization.
It's more chemists, biochemists and engineers driving the process, but not the physicists 28
For synthetic biology to scale, it must be cheaper than petroleum-based chemistry. This requires
15
research and requires switching health regulations to hazard-based, not risk-based.
Reproducibility of new discoveries needs to be carefully assessed 12
The market is specialty chemicals that play a role in end products such as fuels as additives,
3
catalysts, lubricants, cleaners, etc, rather than the end products that result from large-scale processes
We will not be able to create the complexity of chorophyl molecule, but we need something as a
2
synthetic simpler way to turn electrons into chemicals. Sabatier at 300 C and 60 bar is too costly.

147
6.4 More than 80% of the CO2 from European industrial production is re-used

Number of respondents: 92

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
As long as there is no CO2 capture on a large scale, this will take a lot of time. 64
There need to be significant additional incentives (economic and otherwise) for industry to implement
52
carbon capture measures.
Circular economy and logistics are the key issues to reduce CO2. 28

Identify major sources for CO2 and start reduction from there. 18
An industrial plant in India has become the first in the world to generate almost zero emissions by
11
capturing its own carbon dioxide (CO2) to produce valuable chemicals.
The decrease of CO2 production as industrial byproduct comes in favor of the re-use of the remaining
10
CO2 captured.
It is impossible to reuse 80% of CO2 in the economy. The viable solution is to replace the CO2
9
source.
Many of the European companies operate in an global context. A global playing field is required for
8
large scale implementation of CO2 re-use (=costly).
We are still missing a way to assess the true volumes of CO2 released in the atmosphere all along its
4
life cycle, because it crosses a lot of industrial sectors and value chains.
If we only put a CO2 tax on the CO2 pollutor, it will happen. 2
There is not large enough demand for CO2 itself and if brought back to carbon the energy
2
expenditure is too large to be economically feasible.
The change to microbilogical processes will support CCS and CCU since microbes will produce a
2
CO2 stream not in need of purification and they can accept CO2 streams of less purity.
While benefits of CO2 reuse have been identified and some applications exist such as enhanced oil
1
recovery, other than the H2020 prize the EU offers no incentives for R&D.

148
Significance of R&I

Average: 4 Dispersion: 1.12

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Research is needed for CO2 capture and transport. New applications have to be researched and
68
tested.
Policy and enforcement remain critical in this area. 54
Even more R&D&I is needed for carbon re-use. CO2 is a very stable molecule and requires lots of
22
energy to transform it into other products. That energy is not readily available yet.
CO2 Capture and Reuse will become highly attractive, when a low-energy, low-cost conversion
16
method becomes industrially viable. Dedicated R&I actions must aim towards this goal.
Research money spent on non-fossil-fuel-based power generation generates better environmental
8
return on investment, so carbon capture will be low-priority.
There has to come more positive arguments to have EU's citizens behind the idea 8

Integrated photonics will reduce the output of CO2 significantly as a Key Enabling Technology 5
The EU needs to direct R&D to address CO2 reuse in promising areas such as urea production,
3
horticulture, water treatment, fire suppresion, refrigerant, etc.
CO2 reuse issue has to be dealed with on a global scale : reduction of generation, increase of
2
recovery, R&D&I for process of conversion into valuable compounds, reforestation program, etc...
Synthetic biology may offer new approaches to CO2 reuse that need to be investigated. 2

149
6.5 More than 80% of critical rare materials are recycled in the EU

Number of respondents: 102

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Demand is high in electronics and so, since these materials are really rare, the demand for recycling
91
will also increase.
Many Critical Raw Materials, particularly high-tech metals essential for EU high-tech industries, still
51
have global recycling rates below 1% after decades of use, so the 80% rate is too ambitious.
There is no system to collect old devices - therefore 80% is much too high. 37

New and alternative materials will reduce the primary use of CRM. 17
It depends on the prices of CRM how much effort will be put into alternative materials and/or
12
recycling.
Depends on regulation and enforcement of a circular economy approach. 5
Coke and phosphate rock form 69% and 27% respectively of the global production in mass. For coke
2
there is no recycling option so 80% recycling is not possible.
Assuming that recovery processes exist, it is a matter of difference of prices between recycling
2
industry and raw material extraction and purification.
For every CRM there is a different life cycle, in which the CRM returns as discarded product for reuse.
2
Some of these cycles are very long.
many materials may be scarce in Europe but less scarce worldwide (e.g. China), hence proper deals
1
have to be made with such countries
Coke should be replaced in the long term for steel making and be removed from the CRM list. 1

150
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.02 Dispersion: 0.89

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The solution is not simple and will come from an ad-hoc combination of improved recycling
technologies, more sustainable production of primary raw materials and substitution of critical raw 93
materials
Instead of recycling, one should bet on new technologies producing the same electronic devices
52
without rare materials.
The recycling might need a lot of energy, is dangerous and has damaging emissions - research on
27
how to avoid emissions and dangers is needed.
Paired to the development of new technologies both for recycling and for avoiding the rare material
17
use, a policy supporting an informed usage has to be applied.
Design of equipment will be needed using the cradle-to-cradle principles 16
Automation has to be improved in order to dismount electronic devices of different kind, focusing on
8
the high-tech ones first.
Design of products for life cycle and reuse needs to be developed and enforced by legal measures. 5

151
6.6 Annual production of plastic in the EU is reduced to less than 20 million tons (from 55
million tons in 2009)

Number of respondents: 91

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
So far, plastic production is still increasing. 54
There is still a need in specialized plastics (functional, biodegradable etc.), plus in collecting and
53
recycling.
New materials to replace plastic are needed. 36
Plastic will remain in use a lot, mainly to protect food and prevent food waste. The point is to develop
21
consumer packaging that is fully recyclable, so that a minimum of virgin plastic is needed.
There is more plastic in the sea than fish. 15
Alternatives to plastic are not yet as inexpensive and high-performance, and will remain so without
11
focused research & development.
Plastics use only a few percent of global oil production; remaining going to energy & transport.
5
Replacing polymers should take into account whole life cycle, from cradle to cradle.
No need to reduce plastics use so radically. Better to put in place re-use, reticulation and production
5
of bio-based plastics.
EU puts tight regulations on plastic production, so it moves to China and later Africa. 3

More efficient sorting units need to be set up. 2


Improvement of collection and sorting systems aimed at re-use/recycling of plastic still requires a lot
1
of effort.
The reduction in plastic production will be due to the improvement and development of recycling
1
technologies and to the invention of biodegradable alternative materials.

152
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.09 Dispersion: 0.73

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
New technologies have to be developed, in order to increase the recycling rate or to decrease the
69
overall quantity on plastic products.
Alternatives for the current plastics have to be developed. 54
To reduce plastic production, use policies need to forbid specific plastic applications or make it very
26
expensive.
R&I should focus on compostable biomaterials. The wide variety of plastic formulations means
14
recycling will never be economical; compostables need no sorting, so they can be economical.
It's far from being only question of R&D. It is also societal question: educating/helping (poorer?)
people not to throw waste anywhere but rather re-use, check how plastic come into water streams, 10
etc

153
6.7 Adaptive materials and surfaces that are able to change their characteristics according to
user requirements appear in consumer applications

Number of respondents: 101

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
There is already a lot of research going on, e.g. the development of interactive functional materials
92
and smart surfaces, as well as embedded micro systems and functional films for adaptive plastics.
Applications of nano materials are still quite niche. 24

Adhesive materials and surfaces are still a big challenge. 24


Smart materials can be designed for military advantage as well as competitive advantage in
11
consumer products, e.g., smart windows that adapt to changing light intensity.
Insights will tell us how smart product functionalities can be realized through specific characteristics
10
integrated in the surface (at micro or nano scale, by different production technologies).
Smart surfaces will be produced for personalized medicine approaches for medical devices. 6
Strong incentives to deploy smart materials that offer competitive advantage will drive rapid market
6
introduction.

154
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.16 Dispersion: 0.89

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Development of interactive functional materials and smart surfaces as well as of embedded micro
systems and functional films for adaptive plastics is needed for a significant contribution to 87
biomimetics, self-regulating reinforcement, and self-repairing.
This also depends on the degree to which the consumer is prepared or willing to deal with such
27
materials (hence, market-dependent and not only R&I-dependent)
The understanding of the user and his/her requirements is very difficult and needs very specific
18
research.
More in-depth understanding is required between the functionalities requested in consumer
15
applications and the characteristics of adaptive materials and surfaces that enable to realise them
Smart materials will be developed where they give competitive advantage to products with features
14
that better meet consumer needs than non-adaptive.
Deeper knowledge of surface interaction with human tissue will be required to design personalized
6
medical devices.
The important applications for adaptive surfaces are primarily architectural (for passive heating,
5
cooling, and lighting), not consumer products.
Adaptive materials can include functionality addressing systemic needs not just features, e.g. enable
5
more effective recycling with self-destructing drink bottle caps for empty bottles.

155
6.8 Self-healing, shape-shifting materials reacting to light and heat are applied for the first time
in large-scale construction in the EU

Number of respondents: 83

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The cost factor will prevent large-scale adoption for the short- and medium-term future. 55

Even the latest advances remain mostly laboratory stuff with few proven commercial prototypes. 38
The construction area is highly scattered and conservative market. All players (architects, builders,
17
building owners, ...) need to be informed about the advantages of new building materials.
University of California and University of Colorado scientists developed in 2016 a transparent rubbery
material that can be stretched up to 50 times its original size, is conductive, and self-heals mechanical 12
damage.
Thermochromic windows (darkening when warm) have been commercially available for over a decade
12
already.
Chinese construction product innovation may drive change as Chinese construction firms enter EU
4
markets with use of adaptive materials enabling market entry against entrenched competition.
There is already a self-healing concrete, light reacting paints and other materials following. 4

Such materials need to respond to real customer/consumer needs 1


Chinese construction market, the largest in the world, facing increasing costs and competitive
1
pressure driving innovation.

156
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.89 Dispersion: 1.25

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Develop close-to-market prototypes based on self-healing properties of materials. 58

Improve the cost-efficiency of self-healing materials. 55

There is a need for demonstrator buildings to show the advantages of new construction materials. 26
R&I of adaptive materials is important, but the most important adaptations are not shape, they are
9
transmission / reflection of heat and light.
Bridges and similar high use construction that requires adaptation to expansion, heat and cold can
3
benefit from self-healing adaptive materials.
Building systems that can enable vertical agriculture, lower cost energy and air conditioning more
1
effective water use will have competitive advantage

157
6.9 Building materials strengthened by carbon nanotubes can be found in more than 50% of
new constructions in the EU

Number of respondents: 79

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Will not happen. 43
Some research shows that carbon nanotubes may exhibit similar behaviour to Asbestos fibers, which
30
have been linked to various forms of cancer in humans.
Carbon nanotubes could be added to concrete or asphalt in a way similar to the use of
25
re(enforcing)bars in modern construction.
The production of long carbon nanotubes will make great progress in future. 14
The real challenge is to bring the macro & nano world closer. To succeed, we should develop
construction materials which exhibit a high level of order in their microstructure, similar to 8
nanomaterials.
The effect of nanotechnology is overrated. Current reinforcement materials are cheaper and better. 8
3D printing of structural elements potentially including CNT may be able to achieve superior strength
5
with less weight and material.
Scaling up of this technology is needed to make it a large application. 4
Basalt fiber is a highly promising material superior to rebar without disadvantages of CNT that include
1
cost, toxicity and complex manufacturing.

158
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.76 Dispersion: 1.74

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I No. of votes

There is need for further research on the health and ecological impact. 43

Mass production technologies need to be developed. 27

There is need for further research on safe uses of carbon and similar (boronitride) nanotubes. 23

End-user costs driven R&I has to be considered involving companies in the process 7

Incorporation of CNT in 3D printing of construction needs research. 5

An opening to a market opposing significant changes has to be set 1

159
6.10 Nanotechnology is commercially deployed to address bacterial infections

Number of respondents: 83
No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The targeted application of nanoparticles and heat can already be used to remove antibiotics-
49
resistant bacteria from hospitals.
Nanotechnology solutions will take a lot of time for security reasons. 41

Environmental impact of nanomaterials is largely unknown and requires considerable research. 17


Nanotechnology is a vague and unuseful term. I wish it wasn't mentioned as a separate field or as a
17
separate priority. It is the functionality that matters, not the unit of measure.
We need to reason case by case on technology-readiness-level (TRL) 4 prototypes to gauge the
13
future.
New nanodrugs will be available for new therapies to treat bacterial infections. 13
Public perception of "nano" (nanophobia), and consequently the emerging regulations on
1
nanomaterials hinder commercialization of nanotechnology.

160
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.01 Dispersion: 1.35

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Public support is needed because this will solve the problem of new pharmaceutical antibiotics that
41
industry does not want to develop.
It is entirely up to R&I to truly identify and demonstrate feasible technical solutions. It is a mistake,
34
though, to brand them as special just because they are nano.
Currently,R&I policy is focused rather on the creation of new antibiotics. 15
There are already many research works around this argument, higher TRLs and long term stability
15
should be investigated
Systemic analysis is needed and systemic solutions that include new technology, improved infection
9
control in healthcare with training of personnel and monitoring of practice.
Keep funding only ideas of proven TRL4, system level 8
Infections, particularly in healthcare, are a critical problem not well addressed, first new antibiotic in
5
27 years shows promise, but all tools needed to reduce cost and mortality.
Every possible means to control, what could be a slowly increasing antibiotic resistant bacteria
3
pandemy, have to be adressed and nanomaterials are one of them.

161
6.11 Nano-rods (polymeric nanoparticles) are routinely used to deliver medicine on a cell-
specific scale

Number of respondents: 64

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
There are a lot of tests necessary before nano-rods can be used in medical applications. This takes
49
time.
Gold nanorods (GNRs) already work as delivery vehicles for some diseases (e.g., mycobacterium
24
tuberculosis) and hold a lot of promise for many others.
Clinical trials should be conducted within research projects to finally assess this. 23
With a wide range of nanoparticles available, specific nanoparticles should be selected for different
10
applications based on safe-by-design approach.
Hyperthermia is a possibility. 5
Cancer, neurodegenerative disorders, and cardiovascular diseases are fields impacted by NP
technologies that push scientific boundaries to the leading edge of transformative advances for 4
nanomedicine.
I find it wrong if not outrageous that such specialized and marketing-laden topics (e.g., nanosciences,
4
nanorods) have fared so far-up in EU's scientific institutional priorities.
Targeted delivery should not be categorized on a specific technology, but rather on its efficacy. 1

162
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.03 Dispersion: 1.41

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
A lot of time is needed to move from research scale to clinical applications 33

research on ligands is still an issue for cell level selective delivery 31


Swinburne University researchers have reported that gold nanorods can be used to inhibit cancer cell
12
growth in cervical cancer.
A new pulsed-magnetic method which uses nanorods to deliver drugs deeply in the body can offer
7
new pathways for research.
Focus on functionality of technologies, don't label it as "nano" for the sake of being a buzz word 6
Utilizations of polymeric NPs include drug delivery techniques such as conjugation and entrapment of
5
drugs, prodrugs, stimuli-responsive systems, imaging modalities, and theranostics.
Polymer-based nanoparticles (not exclusively nanorods) are the more promising approaches for
5
nanomedicine applications.
For more effective and distinctly targeted delivery of therapeutic applications, particle size,
5
morphology, material choice, and processing techniques are all research areas of interest.

163
164
7. Robotics & Autonomous Machines

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance
Significance
7.1 The majority of the EU population use 52 4.33 0.77 Soon
integrated Artificial Intelligence devices and
machines in their daily lives.
7.2 Robot insects are deployed for 70% of 36 3.75 1.40 Uncertain
pollination to secure the EU’s agricultural
production.
7.3 Artificial Intelligence is used in systems that 46 4.09 0.87 Soon
support policy-makers’ decisions across the
EU.
7.4 Autonomous, nano-scale machines are able 32 4.12 1.37 Later
to self-replicate under environmental
conditions rich in the necessary chemical
elements.
7.5 Autonomous robots are in daily use in 50 4.18 1.04 Uncertain
hospitals and home healthcare across the
EU.
7.6 Nanobots for diagnosing health problems 33 4.5 0.54 Uncertain
are licensed for use by medical doctors in
the EU.

165
7.1 The majority of the EU population use integrated Artificial Intelligence devices and
machines in their daily lives

Number of respondents: 52

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
AI technologies will be used to improve analysis and prediction in devices used daily, without being
48
recognised as such by the users (e.g. navigation devices, smart home controllers, smart cars etc.).
Online services (e.g. Google Translate) already employ self-learning AI. 34
AI (or "synthetic intelligence") will be utilized by most of the pervasive large-scale services (finance,
media, social networks, e-commerce), so that people interact with it, for the most part unknowingly, all 31
the time.
Self-driving cars, trucks and busses will be prevalent by 2030 implying daily contact for almost the
entire population. 14
Fraud protection in financial systems based on blockchain will be pervasive.
In practice, there are no real AI machines in our daily lives. Service robots like vacuum cleaner robots
7
are not intelligent.
AI has been in development for a long time and we still have problems with language recognition. 6
It will take time until real AI will be in our housesholds, but if this happens, they might be treated like
3
family members (see Aibo and other pets).
We do it already today. When my TomTom with HDtraffic sees a traffic jam, I follow its advice for a
1
detour.
People will use AI Technology quite frequently if it comes to data related services, e.g. via Internet,
1
but there will be no intelligent machines (robots) in their daily life.

166
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.31 Dispersion: 0.77

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
To make the machines around us really "intelligent" requires a lot more research. 40

Research in ethics and regulation is needed to address issues of responsibility and agency. 33

Research on how humans can learn and interact further with AI is needed 15
When a diffused presence of AI will become apparent the main problems will become social
10
acceptance linked to privacy and security concerns
Liability, accountability and other security considerations need to be carefully and thoroughly
8
examined.
Use it or lose it. Pervasive AI raises the need for research in retention of human capabilities as
5
thinking and other skills may be less needed to get through the day.
Deep learning has already turned a corner technologically. It's not genuine AI, but it's good enough,
5
so more budget is needed for understanding social and societal impact.
Also in future AI will need large computing power, therefore an efficient information transmission
4
without loosing discriminative characteristics is needed. Still an open research field
Some data needs to be processed in server farms, requiring heavy software and hardware
3
improvements. EU should strengthen both.

167
7.2 Robot insects are deployed for 70% of pollination to secure the EU’s agricultural production

Number of respondents: 35

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Robots for pollination are - to say the least - a questionable application with respect to large-scale
24
application, effectiveness and, most importantly, security.
The current interest in insect-robots for military purposes may support acceleration of technical
14
progress in the field.
There is a lack of bees for pollination as many bees died from still unknown illnesses during 2015 and
13
2016. This development fosters the demand for alternatives to natural pollination.
Too expensive. It's easier to solve pollination either by fixing bees or fixing plants (self- or wind
10
pollination).
Bees and other insects, altogether 40% of food-pollinating wildlife, risk extinction (source from 2016). 8

Some first robot insect technologies are now technically feasible and can be bought (Robobees). 5

168
Significance of R&I

1.40
Average: 3.75 Dispersion:
No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Instead of creating robots, the preservation of insects and solving environmental issues are more
20
significant challenges, and should be the first priority for research.
Robots in agriculture can greatly improve effciency in irrigation and perform targeted operations, but
13
cannot be a substitute to nature.
The development of robots for use in agriculture is going to be a forerunner in robotics in general, and
12
part of the wider trend towards precision agriculture.
The precision agriculture market is dominated by the US; if the EU is to maintain a competitive edge,
10
it must invest heavily in R&I.

169
7.3 Artificial Intelligence is used in systems that support policy-makers’ decisions across the EU

Number of respondents: 46

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Artificial intelligence is already used and will be used to support decisions, but not as a substitute for
38
human decision-makers.
Artificial Intelligence - sophisticated models, or models developed by learning machines - are already
33
used on a routine basis in all sorts of decisions.
Any policy decision can be supported by AI if fed with carefully selected data and criteria. 19
AI is used in elections and that use will grow and poses dangers for democratic governance as
10
information bubbles are created to manipulate decision-making.
Siri, Google Assistant, Alexa, Cortana: individuals will naturally move from personal assistants to
7
assistants in public decision-making.
Decision-makers will never defer to robots (especially when they don't like the latter's decisions). 4

170
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.09 Dispersion: 0.87

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
We need to understand the blindspots of algorithmic decision-making in specific decisional contexts. 38
Research is needed to identify the elements of the decision process under the control of AI so that
21
humans have the potential to review decisions on demand and understand drivers influencing the AI.
Scientists have only now begun to look into whether, how, and when humans trust robots' advice;
18
more research is needed.
Also the basic R&I is needed. The algorithms and practices are developing fast and these
10
competences are critical in global competition.
Security concerns over data abuse/misuse and other aspects of adversarial machine learning and AI
8
need to be researched.
Decision making process will become to require AI tools, because they will become to be not able to
2
decide without them.

171
7.4 Autonomous, nano-scale machines are able to self-replicate under environmental
conditions rich in the necessary chemical elements

Number of respondents: 31

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
This is an old dream - self-replications are only possible under very specific conditions, so this will
26
take a long long time or it will never be realized.
The greatest demand for replication of autonomous machines will be in space and other hostile
10
environments where such capacity may be necessary. Terrestrial needs are less demanding.
Self-replication of machines is a threat to the future of humanity. 3
At Zyvex, they are trying exponential assembly, and this might bring the field forward. Other
3
molecular assemblers are also being developed, but it will take a long time to completion.
It is a very interesting problem for the sake of science but it might turn out to be threat to humanity.
2
We can accomplish it with enough research but do we want to?

172
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.12 Dispersion: 1.37

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Regulation for the self-replication and research for it is needed. 22
Self-replicating nanomachines that can reproduce in the human bloodstream will have significant
11
ramifications for healthcare, but should have externally imposable on/off conditions for safety reasons.
Such technology may be key to use of space materials where almost all production will be robotic and
7
a premium will exist for processes that can function at small scale, but also be scalable.
While the ability to make a few very small, very precise molecular machines very expensively would
clearly be a major scientific achievement, it would not fundamentally change how we make most 7
products.
Self-replications are only possible under very specific conditions, so this will take a long long time or it
3
will never be realized.

173
7.5 Autonomous robots are in daily use in hospitals and home healthcare across the EU

Number of respondents: 49

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Demand for assisted living increases due to the aging of the population. 46
Autonomous robots in healthcare will handle practical matters before they will handle medical
33
matters.
AI based diagnostic systems will be considered necessary for cost as well as patient safety. 16
Substantial progress has been made in natural language processing, which dramatically improves
14
communication with machines in such environments.
Autonomous vacuum cleaners, cognitive AI assistants, cooking assistants, etc. for aiding in home
13
care will be very common.

174
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.16 Dispersion: 1.02

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
More care is needed, as we have more elderly and chronically ill people in Europe, and robots for
35
care support are one of the solutions. More R&I is needed for problem-solving in view of practical use.
Robotics for healthcare is part of the answer to the aging of population, but it cannot be the only
27
approach. More R&I is required, but is not sufficient.
Human-machine interaction is a promising research field. 24
Attention to the social impact of this approaches needs to be promoted from the beginning with a truly
11
interdisciplinary approach
AI systems need to be developed to systematically exercise human capacities, particularly for the
10
aging population, that otherwise wither due to disuse.
More research is needed on how to construct flexible, and real AI, systems. 7
There is a need to better understand the dimension of autononmy that is needed in such Robot
5
Systems. Maybe they are more just a tool with less autonomy but high practical use.

175
7.6 Nanobots for diagnosing health problems are licensed for use by medical doctors in the EU

29
Number of respondents:
No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Many diseases, including HIV can already be detected by low-cost DNA nanobots. 15
Relevant regulation will play an essential role and a general agreement on the subject is not
11
straightforward.
Israel's Bar-Ilan University began the human trials of their quest to utilize nanobots in cancer
10
treatment.
Personalized healthcare demands knowledge of individual DNA, microbiome makeup, medical and
7
dietary history, and other factors demand AI. Research will drive the widening of the role of AI.
Again, this is an old dream but currently it seems unlikely to be fulfilled in the near future. 5
Nanobots are likely to be a footnote in personalized medicine. There are more promising ways to
4
improve health outcomes.
Ethical issues might hinder uptake: what if the data are getting in hands of other people than the
3
patient and the treating doctor?
The international and inter-university nano-research centre IMEC (Leuven, Belgium) already has a
prototype for very early detection of cancer in blood samples via nano: about 100% correct 3
diagnosis.
Scaling up may be a problem. 2

176
Significance of R&I

0.54
Average: 4.5 Dispersion:
No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
This is an emerging technology and it is important for the EU to be a player. 19

The safety of using nanonbots needs further exploration. 18


Diagnostic and sensor systems need to be integrated with nanobots to assure patient safety and
11
effective treatment. Such systems largely do not exist.
It's essential to consider the ethical issues related and to integrate ethics within R&I processes 6

It's essential to consider equal accessibility of this technology for the inclusive society. 2

177
178
8. Transport & Mobility

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance
Significance
8.1 50% of passenger transport is fully 69 4.32 0.58 Later
automated.
8.2 The first Hyperloop connects two capital 60 3.73 1.44 Uncertain
cities in the EU.
8.3 Drone traffic logistics has emerged as an 61 3.63 1.15 Uncertain
important economic sector employing 1.5%
of the total EU workforce (including
maintenance experts, service, “drivers”,
packaging etc.).
8.4 Electric mobility (fuel cells, solar cars etc.) 69 4.01 1.15 Soon
has replaced 20% of the internal combustion
engine vehicles on EU roads.

179
8.1 50% of passenger transport is fully automated

Number of respondents: 67

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
By 2030 the safety level of driverless cars will be higher than that of 'regular cars' (operated by human
46
drivers).
Driverless vehicles will be restricted to certain lanes for a long period of time. 26

Challenges in establishing agency and responsibility in driverless cars causes delays in adoption. 25
Owning a car is old-fashioned. The future belongs to small, fully automated, electric mobility cells. By
2030, a few cities could already have reserved their inner centre for this kind of shared mobility 24
systems.
Vehicles for passenger transport will be dual mode, automatic in some environments and manual
20
elsewhere. Still, most of the kilometers may be driven by AI driver.
Car-to-car connectivity needs to be adopted first on a large scale. 14
Passenger transport conceptually includes all types of machines, planes, trains, metro, trams, ships
9
and boats and 1 to N wheel vehicles... 50% of that capacity will be fully automated rather soon.
Open Data will provide real-time data to enhance decisions about car mobility. 7
Cars need to be fault-tolerant and meet SIL-4 requirements; plus there is a need for an independent
7
regulating body (like in aviation).
Depends whether we look at inner city transport or longer distance. Inner city transport will be
(electric-)bicycle based. No need to automate (see Copenhagen). There is no need for cars 5
whatsoever.
Definition-dependent. Most passenger air miles are probably flown by autopilots already: is it
5
disqualified because there is a pilot in the cockpit?
Uber already started a field trial of automated cars. 4
It will depend from the adoption of mobility services: if we accept not to own our car, it will be easier
3
(in economic terms) to develop automated vehicles with shared vehicles.
Automation of passenger transport by railways will take longer and will only provide a cost advantage
2
where automation of road transport provides also other benefits for the user.
Long periods to renew vehicle fleets. 2
Already today, a lot of passenger transport operations are automated, e.g., trains, trams, etc. Next
1
step is in cars and truck transport.

180
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.30 Dispersion: 0.61

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
A better integration of these systems in the evolution of the cities requires interdisciplinary research
46
and social innovation.
Europe is an important car producer and driverless technologies are key to the competitiveness of
40
this industry.
The security of driverless systems (ie vulnerability to hacking/misuse) is a key issue. 32

Risk management in AI decisions needs better ethical foundations. 16


Developing vehicle technology that can cope with the unpredictable behaviour of non-automated road
15
users and stray objects (litter, birds, dogs) is crucial.
Citizens' engagement in R&I is a must in order to progress both from a technical and from a social
13
perspective.
Automated vehicles, smart infrastructure and cloud are key topics in smart mobility. Research should
12
support all three.
The driverless technologies are still in a close-to-market stage. 6

Impact on (un)employment needs further assessment. 4


Investments should be provided to Startups devoted to Software as a Service (SaaS), as they
3
represent the highest potential in Smart Mobility.
Developing ways of solving deliberate or non-deliberate human-induced gridlock is critical. 3
Publicly funded research needs to focus on those aspects that are not financed by the private sector
2
anyway: security, System Integration/Standards, ethical aspects of AI, responsible R&I

181
8.2 The first Hyperloop connects two capital cities in the EU

Number of respondents: 56

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The cost of such transportation means is so high that they will not provide sufficient return on
32
investment.
Due to population density and existing networks it will be difficult to find a meaningful pilot connection
22
in Europe. Less populated parts of the world will demonstrate the technology first.
The cost of actually developing a working public transportation route is still hard to evaluate 20
Travel in the future will be reduced - hyperloop is too expensive to be working economically. Business
13
will be conducted electronically. Travel is for leasure and for enjoyment.
Europe has excellent rail transport with improvement potential. The added value in EU will be less
12
than in less developed areas with large populations that benefit from a fresh start.
Europe lacks the political and societal capability to develop long-term goals. 8
Many routes have already been proposed across the world, with several of them between European
6
capitals, a few of which are preparing for impact studies.
There is a first memorandum of understanding in Europe for the construction of a Hyperloop. 6

The return on investment will be acceptable when all direct and indirect cost is counted. 4
Hyperloop offers advantages for regions like Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei with large populations needing to
4
move significant distances but there is no analogous conurbation in Europe.
Study of the option is important because future technologies could point to cost reductions, improved
4
performance and better integration into smart city concepts.
Europe is a densely populated continent. Hyperloop offers only point-to-point connections skipping
4
everything in between. This is not meaningful in surface transport.
Construction costs of Hyperloop infrastructure might be close to construction costs for a new regular
3
Railway connection. Energy costs for operation will be around 10%.
Hyperloop One's goals: cargo by 2020 and people by 2021. 3
Consultation and impact assessment procedures will take many years before a hyperloop Project can
1
be realised.

182
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.72 Dispersion: 1.49

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
This is a completely new kind of infrastructure, which needs political will and research into how to
38
tunnel long ways.
There are still many practical issues to be resolved, including intervention in cases of emergency in
24
public transport.
Many variables (weaknesses in materials, alignment errors, reliability of power supply etc.) may in
theory impact the operation of the transportation system, and all of these potential issues need to be 21
sorted out.
The safety assesment is difficult (must be SIL-4) and needs research. 10
Do we need to direct European R&I into this? This is something where a fast-follower-strategy might
7
be more appropriate.
The technology and equipment is today available to develop such links within 5-10 years. 5
Assessment of new way of organising long distance transportation and implications for modal
4
competition.
Do we really an infrastructure between two metropolitain areas or a network ? If we are not able to
4
build a global network, usefulness is low
Assessment of required regulation is needed and can be made independent from existing rail
2
regulation.
While a highly promising technology there is the whiff of being something that will remain 15 to 20
2
years out into the foreseeable future due to the many technical challenges and large-scale.
Being led by the private sector, public R&D should focus on systemic security and impact assessment
1
issues , rather than on technical research.

183
8.3 Drone traffic logistics has emerged as an important economic sector employing 1.5% of the
total EU workforce (including maintenance experts, service, “drivers”, packaging etc.)

Number of respondents: 58

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Personal security will be important to manage for drone use in populated areas. 30

There is currently no drone traffic infrastructure in the EU. 28


Drones' promise of improving transportation services in critical services, especially in the crowded
17
European cities, has no real match or alternative at this point.
I doubt that drones have a major role and provide a significant return on investment unless for very
16
specific issues.
There are about 220mn employed persons in the EU, 1.5% of which is 3.3mn. The total number of
employees in air-traffic and support activities (inside and outside airports) is currently below 2mn 12
across the EU28.
Drones and their impact on last mile logistics may be important, but the impacts on workforce may be
12
rather negative. One main aim of automation is to reduce all transaction costs.
Drones can serve several niche markets such as locations that are hard to reach, urgent deliveries of
9
parcells in congested areas, movements from automated (parcel delivery) vehicle to the door, etc.
Drone-based freight transport and delivery, between cities but also including rural areas, will be a
6
major driver.
If the security-related work force is included, then 1.5% of the work force is plausible due to the broad
4
range of possible security threats that would come with intensive use of drones for logistics.
Drones can add significant value in ports speeding container unloading and eliminating reshipment
2
and storage, however, autonomous operation lessening the need for drivers is likely.

184
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.58 Dispersion: 1.18

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
A working traffic management system has (yet) to be developed for the crowded modern cities. 36
Current mangement systems are not suitable for supporting intermixed drone/airplane traffic. A
23
complete conceptual rethinking and new technologies are needed.
Drone transportation in public spaces may very well be a false good idea (but could work in private
14
places). Trans-disciplinary research is urgently needed not to waste too much money.
There is too much hype in this field. Other domains have a much high importance. 12
Extraordinary range of security and safety concerns to address many of which must be addressed if
8
smart cities with autonomous robotics are to be realized.

185
8.4 Electric mobility (fuel cells, solar cars etc.) has replaced 20% of the internal combustion
engine vehicles on EU roads

Number of respondents: 67

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
The autonomy of electric vehicles is increasing. 47

Air quality in the cities will become a major attraction factor in the competition for the best brains. 40
Consumers have a preference for electric vehicles due to ease of use, comfort, lower maintenance
18
costs etc.
Production costs for electric vehicles (batteries and other components) are expected to fall drastically
18
over the next decade.
New developments in the solar industry will continue to drive down the costs of solar energy. 16

There is a major issue with building the required energy distribution system. 12
Electric cars are only an alternative to fuel propelled cars, hidrogen and other alternatives will be in
10
place in the future.
In Germany, it has been proposed to ban petrol-powered cars in favour of electric vehicles by 2030. 8

Such penetration is a minimum requirement to achieve the 2030 renewable targets. 8

Norway will ban new sales of fuel cars by 2025. 6

Batteries' energy density is too low. 4


Battery-operated electrical vehicles will dominate. Generating electricity in the vehicle brings in
significant burden of cost, weight and complexity. Recharging technologies and infrastructure are 4
important.
Production cost for such vehicles and the lack of recharging infrastructure are the major obstacles for
4
a fast development.
Batteries are rapidly improving and will in a few years be able to charge within a few minutes, will be
4
light, cheap and will provide a range of about 800 km.
The problem with the electric car industry is the lobbies that push for petrol-based propulsion engines. 3
Electric cars are already faster than combustion engine cars in rallycross; and the technology is
2
transferable to regular automobiles.
Drivetrain electrification and vehicle automation are converging and mutually reinforcing technology
2
paths. Ultimately, automated vehicles will only be meaningful if electrified.

186
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.07 Dispersion: 1.06

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Electric mobility needs to be integrated in the broader context of smart cities. 45

To compete against combustion engines, a breakthrough in battery efficiency is still necessary. 41


Integration of electric vehicles as power storage devices in smart grid systems allows improving
26
(peak) load management.
Given the reliance on expensive materials (e.g. rare earths), the costs of which are likely to rise with
21
growing demand, alternative material options are needed.
E-Vehicles need to be economically accessible for everybody and high-density recharging
16
infrastructure needs to expand faster
Smart cities will necessarily have to rely on alternative sources of energy to succeed. 10
Improved battery technology will also make it possible to store energy at charging stations and reduce
7
peaks in demand. Also options to collect energy at charging stations (and Solar-Road) to be used.
Research in fast charging is required in order to meet customer demand. 6
Convenient user interface for charging is needed. Current manually plugged cables are not
5
acceptable.
Without real leaps in energy production and storage, our entire way of life is not viable. 3
First we need excess current from renewable sources, before e-mobility is a "green" technology.
3
Therefore, focus must be on electricity generation.
The potential will be limited because of the inherent chemistry of batteries unless nuclear energy is
3
used to compensate for the stochastic nature of alternative energy sources
Fuel cells and H2 economy need to remain in the picture to diversify energy sources including H2
2
derived from local biomass for circular economy.
Super capacitors offering extremely rapid energy storage and far greater number of charge-discharge
2
cycles can address multiple problems. Graphene, CNTs could reduce demand for rare earths.

187
188
9. Security

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance
Significance
9.1 Autonomous weapons and robots are 27 3.88 0.91 Uncertain
deployed to monitor and secure at least
50% of the EU’s land, sea, and air borders,
sensitive places and infrastructures.
9.2 A successful physical or digital attack on low 21 3.71 1.95 Soon
orbital space satellites causes one major
system (global positioning systems, telecom,
security) to fail completely for an extended
period of time.
9.3 A large EU city (population greater than 500 27 4.22 1.08 Soon
000) sees a major, prolonged disruption of
services (longer than 48 hours) due to
cyberattacks on critical infrastructures.
9.4 Quantum computing encryption 21 4.64 0.40 Uncertain
technologies make it impossible for anybody
to access EU state and corporate secrets.
9.5 Anticipatory crime units with predictive data 27 3.88 1.15 Uncertain
analysis exist in every EU capital.
9.6 Invisibility inducing metamaterials are 16 4 1.08 Uncertain
deployed for the protection of vulnerable
infrastructures for the first time.

189
9.1 Autonomous weapons and robots are deployed to monitor and secure at least 50% of the
EU’s land, sea, and air borders, sensitive places and infrastructures

Number of respondents: 27

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
As many as 40 nations are currently developing military robotics. Some weapons already in use may
16
be considered “autonomous”.
Autonomous machines will be available earlier; however, development of weapon systems takes a
13
long time (usually 10-15 years).
The United Nations Convention on Conventional Weapons has been already debating a possible ban
9
on Autonomous Weapons.
EU bureaucracy and national uneveness will hold up deployment of systems that will be perceived as
7
reducing sovereignty (especially of small-geography EU states).
Autonomous defensive systems are needed to secure critical infrastructure that must be protected
24/7/365 particularly from swarm attacks by autonomous drones where human action may be too 7
slow.
The prospect of "autonomous" weapons and systems could revive interest in Confidence and
4
Security-Building Measures in Europe (CSBM) and thus dampen and regulate diffusion.
Robotic and automatic weapon systems and platforms will profilerate, first by augmenting humans
3
and then becoming autonomous in practice. Cheaper lifetime costs and better performance.
Autonomous systems are under development for maritime surveillance where autonomous operation
2
augmented by AI is necessary to identify potential threats 24/7/365.

190
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.88 Dispersion: 0.91

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Ethical research needs to address the issues of agency and responsibility of authonomous weapons. 21
We need to have research in parallel for the related legal, ethical and socio-economical issues
14
concerning this technology
The key question is what is meant by "autonomous". In mapping and exploring the implications we will
12
need technology foresight (scenarios, etc.) as much as research.
It should be assessed how drones and other technologies could be used beneficially for search and
10
rescue mission support.
Human - robotic / AI interface is growing in importance as autonomous systems play an increasing
5
role in more activities with a growing concern for security implications of autonomous vehicles, etc.
Autonomous technologies are key to industrial activities in space and are necessary for asteroid
3
mining and lunar development. The space economy will be largely autonomous machinery.
The key limiting factor is likely to be lack of political & social willingness to adopt the technology,
2
rather than the technology itself.
Terrorism will continue as a threat and will employ chemical and biological weapons requiring
continual monitoring of water and atmosphere for hazardous agents only possible through 2
autonomous systems
((Assuming R&I = Research and Innovation. If I = Investment, position would shift))A/A key factor:
positions and activities of the US and, therefore, NATO Nuclear Weapon States may not be keen on 2
this

191
9.2 A successful physical or digital attack on low orbital space satellites causes one major
system (global positioning systems, telecom, security) to fail completely for an extended period
of time

Number of respondents: 22

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Digital attacks have already taken place, but the failures of these systems have not been made public. 10
Open or subtle threats to space satellites and major IT systems - rather than direct attacks - may well
9
become a part of the security repertoire of hostile states.
Physical attacks are not very feasible, as there are only a few states with the capabilities to attack in
7
low orbital space now. But, in the future, there might be private actors with these capabilities, too.
Space related infrastructure is a vital part of the Critical Infrastructures in the EU. They are a primary
6
target for digital attacks.
Killer CubeSats are thinkable that can disable other satellites and become increasingly likely as
5
launch costs decrease and fall within reach of non-state actors.
A rogue state or non-state actor or a crime cartel in command of $billions could blackmail major states
4
with demands that can be readily met if anti-sat technologies have been deployed, demonstrated.
A 'Ransomware' scenario is highly probable. 3
The most damaging North Korean threat would be the capacity to destroy key satellites that could not
2
be rapidly replaced.

192
Significance of R&I

Average: 3.67 Dispersion: 1.82

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The EU needs coherent and integrated risk identification, analysis and assessment tools and
20
procedures in order to monitor evolving threats.
Experiments on response to such an event have to be performed and international reactions have to
11
be tested in order to be prepared. Political coordination is necessary.
RI policy in this area must be guided by an understanding of the fundamental uncertainty, both
8
political and technological, that we face. Mitigating evident risks is only a part of the picture.
The prospect of very large constellations of small satellites multiplies the threat level dramatically.
3
Precise tracking of these objects and knowing that threats may exist among them requires R&D.
AND risk definition. A risk for some is an opportunity for others (good and bad) 1

193
9.3 A large EU city (population greater than 500 000) sees a major, prolonged disruption of
services (longer than 48 hours) due to cyberattacks on critical infrastructures

Number of respondents: 28
No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Cyber crime is on the rise. Power supply is a major single point of failure in modern societies and will
23
thus be the primary target in hybrid warfare.
US National Security Agency chief said in 2016 that cyberattacks on critical infrastructures are a
18
matter of when, not if.
In December 2015, a presumed Russian cyber-attacker left an important city in Ukraine without power
8
for 6 hours, but the attack could have rendered the system permanently inoperable.
Sleeper threats need to be addressed that can be autonomously initiated at specified times or
5
conditions.
In May 2017, the NHS of the UK was hobbled.
Too many people w/power to do MUCH more to prevent and respond effectively to attacks continue 5
to exercise 'willfull blindness' of their vulnerabilities
There are lots of cyberattacks, but most of them do not cause that much harm. 2

194
Significance of R&I

Average: 4.22 Dispersion: 1.08

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
Cyber security and infrastructure security need joint (policy) approaches and a lot of knowledge. 24

There must be experiments, scenarios and risk management on EU and on city level to be prepared. 19
We need more research and foresight on the changing nature of power relations in the world
10
(nations, networks, criminal groups, new great powers, international structures, etc.).
A "security" culture should be introduced in the workplace, in addition to safety. 9
Research into resilience at various levels (e.g. critical infrastructure, social) is needed to deal with
2
cyber attacks, as a successful attack is inevitable.

195
9.4. Quantum computing encryption technologies make it impossible for anybody to access EU
state and corporate secrets

Number of respondents: 22

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Deciphering is neither the only nor the main way for accessing and compromising data. 13
Quantum encryption, even if virtually ubreakable, is not a solution to e.g. social engineering
12
techniques, so it is not a sufficient condition to "make it impossible for anybody to access data".
Researchers estimate a one-in-seven chance that some fundamental public-key crypto will be broken
8
by quantum by 2026, and a one-in-two chance of the same by 2031.
Things may be impossible in principle, but quite possible under different principles under different
4
paradigms.
So far, 'quantum speed-up' has not been unambiguously achieved with any prototype quantum
2
computer.
Google, IBM and Microsoft are all working on commercializing the technology. The Canadian
2
company D-Wave is already selling quantum computers.
Until or unless there are only 'quantum computers', other computers/computing will complicate the
1
state of 'encryption'.
There's a huge potential in quantum computing encryption technologies. More research is crucial to
1
ensure that this technology is used for the purpose of securing institutions.

196
Significance of R&I

0.40
Average: 4.64 Dispersion:

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
If quantum technology will be successful post-quantum encryption methods will be needed. Since
11
innovation in the digital world runs on the fast track, research has to be started right now.
There's a huge potential in quantum computing encryption technologies. More research is crucial to
8
ensure that this technology is used for the purpose of securing institutions.
City-wide networks of quantum key distribution have already been demonstrated in the US, Europe
and Japan. But low bandwiths and other factors question the wide adoption of quantum encryption 5
technologies.
Quantum computing R&I are between little and none in most of the states of the world. 3
There's a huge potential in quantum computing encryption technologies. More research is crucial to
2
ensure that this technology is used for the purpose of securing institutions.

197
9.5 Anticipatory crime units with predictive data analysis exist in every EU capital

Number of respondents: 26
No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Big Data can enhance knowledge of what is actually going on but is of little use in predicting new
12
developments and discontinuities.
Predictive policing is already used in the States, Poland, Israel, Switzerland, and the UK. 12
Since the program is fed only data from offenses that the police registers, it only looks for
10
corresponding patterns and so narrows the view.
Predictive policing has not been demonstrated to be effective yet, independent studies do not exist. 8

Privacy concerns need to be addressed prior to reaching this goal. 6


Predictive policing will be attempted to avert terrorism and mass killings. Danger in profiling and
6
misidentification.
Smart policing exists in the US with police and probation officers trained to act on identified risk
2
factors. Inaccurate data can result in injustice. Improved data can better identify risk factors.
To the term predictive font, it is better to take the anticipation of actions. 1
Predicting what: Crime location? Criminals? Area? Time? "Minority report" is still science fiction in
1
2040.

198
Significance of R&I

1.15
Average: 3.88 Dispersion:
No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
The advantages and disadvantages of combining predictive analytics with crime control should be
18
explored very thoroughly, as this might have an impact on many societal developments.
Standardization of data across the EU is needed. 12

Pattern recognition still has to be improved. 9


We must not lose sight of the big picture. Research on population, demography and migration needs
8
to be strengthened, as well as comparative analyses across Europe.
Data is very easy to misuse and abuse. Presence of risk factors does not guarantee crime but can be
6
used in crime prevention. Research is needed to prevent abuse and improve effectiveness.
Training of police officers and an adjustment in policing doctrines are required 5
We need to make an effort on an operational research mode. This would make it possible to bring
2
research closer to the actors of security.

199
9.6 Invisibility inducing metamaterials are deployed for the protection of vulnerable
infrastructures for the first time

Number of respondents: 17

No. of
Arguments regarding the time of realization
votes
Since critical infrastructures are immobile in most cases, invisibility is not an efficient concept in the
9
presence of high precision GNSS services.
The demand for invisibility increases in response to improved satellite visual monitoring. 6
Presently metamaterial cloaking operates across a limited range of frequencies making such
technology unsuitable to cloak critical infrastructure. Spies could simply use a frequency outside of 3
range.
The current technology relies on 3D printing, which promises low cost solutions. 2
In 2016 scientists from Queen Mary University of London have made an object disappear by using a
2
material with nano-size particles.
Invisibility of critical infrastructure is a novel kind of "security by obscurity", and unsuitable for civil
2
infrastructure that needs long-term protection.
The risk of camouflage is to push the criminal into a spiral of invisibility. Dematerialisation must be
2
measured.

200
Significance of R&I

Average: 4 Dispersion: 1.08

No. of
Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I
votes
This technology is still in the demonstration phase. 10

Further research is needed regarding its possible use by terrorists. 7


Research is needed to expand range of operable frequencies and object size. Limited value so
4
far.

201
4.2 Statements on the R&I policy environment

Fields

Economy: Sharing, Growth, Sustainability

Education & Skills

Longevity & the Health System

Natural Environment, Climate Change & Oceans

Society, Culture, Digitalization & Governance

R&I Practices

Working Conditions & Employment

202
10. Economy: Sharing, Growth, Sustainability

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance Significance
10.1 The environmental footprint is appropriately 71 3.95 1.03 Uncertain
incorporated in the prices of all economic
activities and products.
10.2 A universal basic income exists in the 69 3.47 1.57 Uncertain
majority of EU states.

10.3 More than 50% of adults licensed to drive in 66 3.45 1.27 Uncertain
the EU do not own a car.

10.4 Regions in the Euro zone converge in terms 67 3.54 1.89 Uncertain
of income, employment and
competitiveness over the course of a five-
year economic growth period.
10.5 Prices for electrical energy are close to zero 66 4.10 1.04 Uncertain
(almost free).

10.6 Food prices have in real terms doubled 58 3.83 1.37 Uncertain
(average per year, compared to 2016).

203
10.1 The environmental footprint is appropriately incorporated in the prices of all economic
activities and products

Number of respondents: 70

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
In "all activities and products" is too ambitious, maybe in 80% of all activities and products. 39
Globalisation will make it hard for a fair price increase to compensate the burden on the
33
environmental footprint.
What other choice do we have on a finite planet? Let's to it sooner than later and take care for the
27
next generations as well as biodiversity! EU must take the lead!
This initiative meets with the considerable opposition of businesses and remains unreliable. Useful
19
progress is made too late while the footprint is enormous.
As long as the rules are set by those who benefit from them, this will never happen. 16

Denial of environmental problems will increase due to a changing political landscape. 15


Digitalization of society for other reasons will bring in a possibility to track the environmental footprint
14
aspects also.
Lack of policy agreement/coordination between governments leads to a competitive race to the
9
bottom.
The Pigovian tax would lead to an understanding by the consumer of the real costs of their behaviour. 6

Environmental Responsible behaviour must be driven through the household budgets of consumers. 6

Extrinsic motivations deny the proper environmental care. 6


This question carries a whole freight of smuggled assumptions. Don't ask high school questions.
5
Oh god's sake, limits to text input.
The question is highly relevant but the possible underlying assumptions are too many. My greatest
4
fear is to apply this scheme as a make believe and continue exploiting the poor and powerless!
This question ignores alternative modes of provisioning, such as commons, that do not necessarily
3
require (direct) market exchange. The price-system presumes certain social relationships.

204
No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The calculation of the footprint needs to be clearly defined for legal purposes. 39
A change in the economic structure and system is needed to accomplish the desired outcomes, not
31
more regulations.
The footprint entails intense political debate which in turns trigger intense research influenced by
29
political interests. It all depends on how the EU compromises between environment and business.
If the footprint was fully priced in this would require radically new approaches in several fields (e.g.
23
manufacturing, ICT, energy, transport) with substantial R&I requirement as a consequence
If the footprint is priced-in in all activities, a discussion on the need for further environmental research
21
could be triggered.
Research at European level will be crucial to build public consensus 12
For topics like these there needs to be communication about the role of the EU: In which areas it is
12
necessary to intervene and steer the citizen's behaviour?
Why don't we replace footprint with 'LCA' (Life Cycle Assessment)? The scientific bases are available
10
and findings can be implemented quickly.

205
10.2 A universal basic income exists in the majority of EU states

Number of respondents: 68

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The increase in inequalities and poverty obliges governments to adopt this measure but
42
with different patterns and scopes.
Political unrest and/or political apathy among the most vulnerable populations create the
30
conditions for a renewed social pact or improved social policies.
This is a disruption to the major paradigm of economic drivers of nation states that are
27
focused on gainful employment and social policies to enable participation in employment.
Employment for money might be a fading concept in a future economy where creativity and
13
social care are central (and robots as well as 3D-Printers are producing goods).
UBI will cause more to choose entrepreneurship over traditional employment because of
13
financial security.
Universal flat rate models have no incentives to contribute. The base level of UBI has to be
low. It shall include a mechanism to gain more even with low value contributions. 10
Monotonous curve!
Finland is the world's first country to test unconditionally basic income at the national level.
6
In Ireland, the government "thinks about it".
UBI is a total nonsense. EU countries already spend 25-35 of gross product on social
6
transfers. These need deeper focusing given demographics. UBI is the opposite of focus.
As people have an income, they can dedicate their (already paid) time to work in science.
6
This can result in the doubling of the total EU scientific workforce.
Mobility leads to individuals choosing best universal basic income within EU. 6
Once the UBI is given, the inflation will rise and the UBI will be useless.
We shouldn't give income but goods and services. If the people want money they go to 5
work.
We cannot only look at a sum of money that everyone gets. Without a pact on sharing jobs
4
and taxing financial capital the feedback loops of increased inequality will not be broken.
UBI is an important issue and a lot of its feasibility will depend on the conditions that
embrace it. It has to be involved in a wider consideration about the organisation of our 3
economic system.
The most economic way to implement social care. 3
The UBI might lead to a higher population growth rate. 1

206
Average: 3.47 Dispersion: 1.57

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The distribution of wealth and income become a key figure of our democracies with wealthy people
48
lobbying governments for status quo. Research on equality-inequality becomes crucial.
The idea touches the core of our society in the digital age. It means the end of work out of sheer
31
necessity.
Well-being has to include multiple dimensions, not money only. Stiglitz lists about 8 key dimensions.
22
"UBI" shall consist elements from all of those. (.. health, education, social... )
A universal basic income would have a massive impact on the research workforce - in one way or the
16
other.
This is a political decision coupled with power play. 11

UBI is to be financed by social budgets such as unemployment, social security, medicare etc... 4

R&I in social sciences will remain low 3

Due to a rise of inflation, it will be not significant at all. 1


UBI is motivated by a couple of emerging dynamic: stagnating and limited growth, jobless growth, and
1
cheaper more efficient automation.
Automation historically has led to increase in GDP and welfare, this could turn into having a negative
1
impact. In that case applying automation leads to external costs to be internalised by taxation.

207
10.3 More than 50% of adults licensed to drive in the EU do not own a car

Number of respondents: 65

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The challenge will be to move from a business model of selling cars to individuals towards a model of
45
selling services.
As access to products becomes more important than ownership of things, this trend will continue to
43
grow.
In urban agglomerations, there is no space for personal automobiles. Local traffic is expanded to
30
enable fast locomotion for everybody.
If public transport or car sharing in rural areas do not massively improve, people need their cars. 24

Only a generation mindset change from "mine" to "ours" will support this development. 7

With level 4 autonomous cars available from ca. 2021, fewer will choose to get a driver's license. 5

The concepts of "driving" and "licensed to drive" will change too, when robotic cars are in general use. 5
Ambitious public transport policies, and the rethinking of our relation to space and time, will be
4
needed to reduce car traffic and ownership.
This implies a massive cultural change which is impossible to predict. 3
Just for clarification: We have about 250 million passenger cars in the EU today. How many people
3
are there who have a license to drive?
Remote driving is a possible concept to help the AI. And also to clarify the responsibilities. Multiple
3
simultaneous remote driving should be possible.
Since alternative activities can be performed while driving, personalisation of the interior fitting
1
personal interest might become an influential factor. So a private car for those who can afford it.
You've been reading Reddit futurology, haven't you? This doesn't fit into a few tick the box answers.
1
Urban responses of maybe self-nav are totally different from other modalities. Needs essay.

208
Average: 3.45 Dispersion: 1.27

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Mobility solutions need to be developed and politically backed up that allow to plan seamless journey
51
without huge investments.
Research on transport will have to become less technological and concentrate rather on key political
32
issues on transport policies at various levels. If not, transport problems will increase anyway.
Car sharing for private persons needs to be supported. 26
Transport is not an issue of ownership. Low cost, ubiquitous, environmentally sustainable
13
transportation is needed. It is irrelevant who owns the vehicles.
The focus of EU research should be to reduce the number of cars, and not just the CO2 emissions,
11
through better mobility solutions
Disruptive innovations including this one will lead to changes in mobility organsiation and demand and
10
requires also changes in assessment methods for infrastructure investment decisions.
Currently, the EU concentrates on reducing CO2 in cars and not on cutting car fleets in themselves:
By 2021, phased in from 2020, the fleet average to be achieved by all new cars is 95 grams of CO2 4
per kilometer.
Mobility and transport have to be considered as major issues of public policies (organisation of urban
4
and rural areas, consumption, distance home-work, lifestyles, etc.).
Owning a car or not does not have any influence on R&I policy. 4

Only a generation mindset change from "mine" to "ours" will support this development 3

Nothing much to do with EU. National issue, or more micro than that. 1
Unfortunately EU always arrives late to important changes. USA will lead this change also, despite the
1
automobile industry in Germany, France, Italy or even Spain

209
10.4 Regions in the Euro zone converge in terms of income, employment and competitiveness
over the course of a five-year economic growth period

Number of respondents: 67

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
We will likely see growing polarisation in income, employment, and competitiveness between a few
46
metropolitan hubs and the rest of the Euro zone.
Current convergence trends continue and reinforce the trend towards a two-speed/multi-speed
32
Europe.
More EU efforts concerning the mentioned factors are necessary to reconcile economic disparities. 26

Eurozone countries sign a fiscal union agreement 15


Convergence needs to be centred around distribution of wealth, which will face a lot of political
15
resistance.
After a long period of EU skepticism and bashing, most countries and especially regions realise the
10
benefit of cooperation rather than competition.
We either build a solid federation or go back to loose collaboration. In between, there is no possibility
8
to survive.
This is set by the external world, not by anything in the gift from the EU. Emerging economies will
3
have more graduates than EU has workers by 2040.
Prosperity and contextualised degrowth rather than growth, and the reduction of inequalities between
3
European member states (more federation) should be determining factors for European policies.
More disparity between poor and rich areas will increase even further political instability and reduce
2
social cohesion in Europe.
In a world hit by a great economic crisis (due to many underlying factors, some of them already
present), relatively slight differences in development among European countries won't matter 1
anymore.
The convergence would be viable unless it is within the ecological footprints of countries. This will
1
necessarily require contextualized degrowth within global similar and/or complementary dynamics!

210
Average: 3.54 Dispersion: 1.89

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Redistribution is needed. 30

More EU efforts concerning the mentioned factors are necessary to reconcile economic disparities. 20
Since being an island of (relative) prosperity in the Eurozone is an illusion, research is needed on how
neighboring EU and non EU economies perform and how the spills-overs of Eurozone economies 16
work.
Only through convergence can we hope to fulfill the research potential of currently underdeveloped
10
regions of the EU.
Development of ways to utilize endogenous economic potentials are needed for regions with poor
8
resource basis as well as the covering of local to regional consumption needs.
Only few European countries are able alone to be the decision makers in global market. Without
7
rather strong EU all less capable European countries will drop out. Together we could succeed.
Convergence means richer countries from the periphery, thus more resources to invest in R&I. 6
Research is not the issue as plenty of study and research is already produced while no action is
5
taken. Political courage is key.
More research on alternative/ multimodal mobility is necessary, as cities grow and with them the need
4
for local mobility solutions.
Equality and economic convergence are not useful guides to policy in a world that denies both and will
3
be dominated by unfunded old age.
Convergence within the countries' ecological footprints will require a vast spectrum of R&I in hard and
2
soft sciences as well as new technologies and of course appropriate innovations!
I don't know what R&I stands for. 1

R&I policy is a part of the cooperation, it either exist or not 1

None of the above. 1

211
10.5 Prices for electrical energy are close to zero (almost free)

Number of respondents: 65

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Every service has a cost, so it won't ever be zero; i.e., maintenance will be needed, like in water
50
distribution, which is free for the citizen, not for the country. We need collective services.
Even with very low resource prices for renewable energies, the fix infrastructure costs are driving the
27
price levels. Politically, there will not be a signal for wasting energy.
A growing number of households will become net producers of electrical energy through a variety of
24
technologies.
Like in telecommunications, the marginal costs for electrical energy can be zero. Once the
20
infrastructure exists, the production does not cost anything, anymore.
In order to have a well behaving demand it would be best to retain some pricing. 11
The large energy providers need money for their investments and for deconstructing their nuclear
7
power plants, they will not decrease their prices as long as they still depend on incoming money.
A flat rate model for households becomes more common. 6
Renewables are driving the costs down, but price incentives for energy savings are also needed with
6
renewables.
The shift to a circular or performance economy will greatly reduce the amount of energy and electricity
5
consumed in manufacturing, increasing the present situation of an oversupply of electricity.
As long as Natural Resources are needed and circular economy is not in place for these required
resources, this will not happen. There is little movement on real circular production development at the 4
moment.
kWh-dependent share of energy cost is reduced, while total cost of electricity is mainly determined by
3
infrastructure costs (including for storage and conversion).
We need a more united European leadership with a common EU government able to take decisions
and coordinate electrical energy policies and allow new, more efficient inventions (like TESLA in the 3
USA).
This is utterly unrealistic. Gas has next to no marginal cost (if you don't buy it from Russia). Nobody
1
pretends that CCGT is free. Renewables are vastly expensive, horrible sources of energy.
Norway is 100 percent hydroelectric, Switzerland 100 percent carbonless power production. If these
non-EU countries use power intelligently, e.g., hydrogen fuel cell mobility, they change energy 1
markets.
Policy should fight energy precariousness and poverty so that people are able to pay their energy
1
bills, and create incentives for the industry and households to save energy.

212
1.04
Average: 4.10 Dispersion:
No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
There has to be support for investments in long-term energy generation, including regenerative
27
energies or energy from "waste".
Smart use of renewable energy is central to a sustainable EU. Therefore, this is a core duty for R&I. 24
Individual house and facilities renewal energies have to be promoted by EU policies, and dismantle
13
old oligopolies
It will raise the amount of freedom and care for the citizens. 7

Policy-makers have to force the industry to provide prices that are real market-prices. 6
Energy generation and Energy transport are different businesses. Grid neutrality (ref to net neutrality)
5
is needed to make all energy sources applicable.
Energy saving, energy efficiency and renewables are the three core factors for ambitious energy
4
policies. R&I should support these three pillars.
Energy subsidies of any kind should be avoided. Better regulation, more R&I should be studied. 3
Research on clean energy could be scraped. Policies for supporting clean energy might need new
3
argumentations and new approaches.
There currently are several promising fusion projects that may be commercialised before 2030. 2

213
10.6 Food prices have in real terms doubled (average per year, compared to 2016)

Number of respondents: 57

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Technological advancements will help make food production ever more efficient, thus avoiding a
29
sharp price increase.
The number of people on earth to be fed is growing - even if we in Europe have "shrinking societies" -
25
as long as food distribution remains a problem, prices for food are a matter of speculation.
Climate change will have an increasing influence on food prices. 19
In the long run, one can imagine that prices will increase for energy, raw materials, agricultural
18
products, etc. Other sectors will also face price increases.
The deforestation implied by active agriculture across the earth increases the climate change process
16
and affects negatively agricultural activity.
Food prices will become increasingly influenced by the cost of their environmental footprint, thus
12
driving the economy towards more locally produced goods.
Higher food prices are needed to guarantee/ provide living wages for people who are working in
7
agriculture. In 2016, the Food prices fell again (see FAO Index).
Will definitely increase due to climate changes, overpopulation, probable oligopolisation of agriculture
5
and possibly - speculation.
The real food price could increase if agricultural systems improve their pratices, especially their
impact on the environment. But current sustainable agricultural systems do not suggest a doubling of 5
prices.
Food price is directly linked to energy costs. If EU shifts renewal energies to almost marginal cost,
4
food prices will be lower.
Real food prices have been relatively stable over the last 70 years. 3

Middle men raise the food price. Multi-localization is needed, not multinationalism. 2

214
Average: 3.83 Dispersion: 1.37

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
There must be a policy and R&I considering not only the quantity of food but also the quality. 36

This would help boost R&I in food production technologies - changes in policies might be necessary. 25
Adequate distribution of food products needs to be scrutinised. The EU should take steps to ensure a
19
reduction of waste in the food industry
There must be campaigns - supported by scientific data on the link between high quality food and
17
good nutrition - it has to be emphasized that the quality of food suffers if consumers just "buy cheap".
The EU, being wealthy, will always buy what it needs. Global food prices will be set by global supply
8
and demand. Biotech will help, water availability limit this. But 9 bn need to be fed.
Techniques to make food production less dependent on Climate Change impacts are needed. 7

It will raise the inflation and the anger amongst people living in the cities. 3

This would trigger R&I in synthetic foods and with it new policies. 3

More R&I that support local and organic food production, and fair supply chains is needed. 1

215
216
11. Education & Skills

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance
Significance
11.1 More than 50% of all publicly funded 91 3.94 1.07 Uncertain
schools in the EU have replaced the
conventional disciplinary teaching methods
with a problem-solving pedagogy and
curricula.
11.2 Educational systems in the EU give equal 86 3.94 1.11 Uncertain
weight to competitive and collaborative
learning practices.
11.3 Women in emerging and developing 79 3.75 1.52 Uncertain
countries are pioneering state reform.

11.4 Discrimination of gender, age and ethnicity 93 4.08 1.60 Uncertain


in the EU has disappeared: Principles of
diversity, of gender, age and ethnicity are
universally and fully recognized and
implemented across all areas of business,
education, and government.
11.5 Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality 90 3.49 1.39 Uncertain
techniques are standard practice in 95% of
all educational settings.
11.6 More than 50% of European universities 101 3.67 1.33 Soon
offer open online learning platforms free of
charge.

217
11.1 More than 50% of all publicly funded schools in the EU have replaced the conventional
disciplinary teaching methods with a problem-solving pedagogy and curricula

Number of respondents: 88

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
More pilots are needed in various EU regions to test the usefulness of this approach. 49
We will more likely face an increased interdisciplinarity, but not necessarily in a problem-solving
47
approach.
Inertia in the pubic educational system will delay such a radical change. 38

A much better integration between research and education is needed. 30


It is not proven that a problem-solving pedagogy will automatically lead to better solving of societal
25
problems.
For real problem-based education, infrastructure also needs to be adjusted. 18

School systems display very high inertia, in particular in Eastern and Southern Europe. 15

The challenge of evaluation will restrain the expansion of problem-solving pedagogy. 12


Such a radical change needs wider consensus and major investment in education at all lelvels
10
including teachers education.
Problem-solving pedagogy and curricula need to be complemented by experience (3G learning),
9
knowledge discovery, and talent detection.
How about: more than 50% of schools will have a more individually oriented curriculum, taking into
8
account pre-existing student knowledge?
Each individual starts his life from zero. He has to get a chance to learn what already is known, before
3
learning how to produce new knowledge. For this, inertia in the educational system is essential.
Computer programming at the early stage and use of serious games are among the elements needed
3
for attractive and effective learning.
Problem-solving skills and skills relating to information seaching and source critisism are more
2
essential in today's and future world than formal knowledge.
Teachers in (higher) education should prepare for problem-solving teaching and learning. Gradual
1
replacement of old-fashioned teachers by problem-solving teachers will delay the change.
The change starts from the Nordic counties and gradually other countries will follow. 1

218
Average: 3.94 Dispersion: 1.06

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Future researchers need to learn problem-solving early in their lives - education policies and R&I
59
policies overlap here.
Problem-solving is a core competence of the future researcher. Policies for better framework
57
conditions in building up this competence are essential.
Co-creation between professional practice, education and research is needed 32
Research careers would rank higher among graduates options. In times of different options and a
27
shrinking workforce there is a need to keep the system attractive for researchers.
Problem-based learning, taking into account transdisciplinarity is key to an open, curious and solid
25
research mind.
R&I should provide easier access to the results of research in response to the increasing demand of
20
the learners.
It is hard, and even vain, to teach problem solving to someone who does not know what a problem is,
10
because he lacks the background domain knowledge.

219
11.2 Educational systems in the EU give equal weight to competitive and collaborative learning
practices

Number of respondents: 84

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The ability to work in teams, deal with conflicts, and solve them - it is becoming more and more
important. Social intelligence and emotional security are crucial dimensions. In future, we will learn 78
more from each other and with each other.
Social intelligence will become crucial in the world of self-learning systems. 42

As of today, we have more competitive learning practices than collaborative ones. 33


Living systems are competitive by nature. Collaboration and interdisciplinarity are useful tools, which
24
should not be understood as opposed to competitiveness.
It is crucial to detect talents and create the right environments for developing them. 15

Collaborative learning is already a frequent practice in EU educational systems. 10

Entrepreneurship should be added at the early stage. 9


Research teams and networks empowered with increasingly sophisticated collaborative tools are the
7
driving force for knowledge creation and innovation.
How much balance is needed varies from field to field and even within fields over time. 7
This would require not only a paradigm shift but also very strong investment from MS in education,
3
which is unlikely to happen under the current political trends.
It is necessary to involve much more the political decision-makers in all the countries. 1
There is probably more differences across the EU, and less willingness to adjust to common
1
standards, in the area of education than in any other area.
Complex systems learning, and vertical leadership or multi-scale approach, will also be crucial for new
1
talented people.

220
1.11
Average: 3.94 Dispersion:
No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Policies for collaborative research can only be successful if the education system prepares the
researchers, who until now often work in competition or even alone, to be able to work collaboratively.
57
The researcher of the future needs to be very collaborative as more and more research is performed
in teams - R&I policies have to back up education and training policies for high quality.
52
Education policies need to be changed from selective forms to more collaboration-fostering
approaches.
27
Teachers and students need to get support about the process of collaborative working, coaching,
training, learning and how they can optimally prepare for it. Guidance in the roles they'll take
21
R&I policies should include co-creation between public and private partners, but also between
education, research and innovation
19
Education should focus on creating competent individuals, with technical knowledge as well as with
social abilities. Excessive networking provides for bureaucracy and inefficiency.
17
The school/university evaluation and ranking systems need to consider these criteria. 12
EU policy is designed to support national action and help address common challenges, such as
ageing societies, skills deficits in the workforce, technological developments and global competition. 8
Collaborative aspects should be added to this list, too.
There is no significant link between the mode of education and R&I policy. 5

221
11.3 Women in emerging and developing countries are pioneering state reform

Number of respondents: 77

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Women's level of education and skills are expected to improve above men's also in developing
countries quite soon. However, earlier evidence suggests that this is not enough to guarantee pioneer 62
status.
As the World Development Report 2012 has already shown, women from emerging and developing
42
countries have benefited above-average from technological change.
In developing countries today 38% of all small business entrepreneurs are women. 33

Empowering women in social entrepreneurship in developing countries is key. 13


BMBF Foresight Zyklus II (Germany) has already indicated that women from emerging countries are
12
the pioneers of global transformation.
Women in these countries still are constrained (to make developments in many domains), by the
8
mentality of societies that pay tribute to the traditional role models in patriarchal families.
Setting "reform" as a goal, as opposed to "progress" or "efficiency", sounds like a policy designed for
5
fostering anarchy instead of progress - at the expense of the tax payer not in their interest.
Military service was a key factor in early introduction of men to technology and modernity; as armies
2
become a less central institution, roles are being increasingly filled by women.
True, but I don't see a connection to EU R&D policy. 1

Women are already leading change and progress in developing countries and other countries as well. 1

222
Average: 3.73 Dispersion: 1.54

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Education policies play a large role. With good education, there are less children, more possibilities
51
and better health for women and thus more participation and even influence.
Different reports show that women from emerging countries should be supported by initiating new
39
funds/programs as they could be important drivers of new state reforms in their home countries.
Funds could focus on supporting technological change in emerging countries from which women
33
would also benefit.
Policies in R&I gain a different dynamic if women are in the lead and establish these policies instead
20
of being influenced by men's policies only.
EU Education must highlight the critical role of women in society, both as pioneers and as mothers,
12
while allowing them to achieve either or both
This would be an example of blatant gender discrimination. 4
In the US white males show increasing mortality as less clear roles for men. This points to emerging
1
problems in developing countries as well.

223
11.4 Discrimination of gender, age and ethnicity in the EU has disappeared: Principles of
diversity, of gender, age and ethnicity are universally and fully recognized and implemented
across all areas of business, education, and government

Number of respondents: 91

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
There are very long-standing cultural and structural obstacles that must be overcome in order to
87
achieve these conditions. Progress will continue to be slow, but the goal is of utmost importance.
The rise of extremist parties might counteract more equality. 40

Further refugee crises might enhance the problem. 29


Discrimination is a frequent reaction of human beings (groups) to major (economic, sociocultural,
25
political) crises. Only mastering future crises will enable further reduction in discrimination.
Young people growing up in diverse communities may show the way. 19
To reach this goal, a lot of work concerning regulation for companies and other institutions will be
18
necessary - otherwise many businesses won't take much of a notice.
Improved mobility of citizens can lead to better cultural interaction and reduce discrimination. 6

Discrimination of ethnicity just increased dramatically. 5


For Europe to maintain its diversity and identity, It is more critical than ever to learn to love oneself
5
and others. This should be a clear goal, if we wish to ever make discrimination disappear.
Currently discrimination is on the rise. 4

Better primary and secondary education on equality is needed to deal with discrimination. 3
Leading minds present a future where humans become obsolete. Many seek salvation through
1
identity with a glorious past and reject the claims of experts. A human capable future is needed.

224
Average: 4.10 Dispersion: 1.56

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
A strong EC is necessary that integrates instead of divide. 54

Regulations should be considered for institutions and business. 30


Equality will be an even greater issue in R&I policy and funding. There will be strict scrutiny from all
23
kinds of stakeholders.
Discriminatory practices should be sanctioned rather than tolerated. R&I on current practices is
20
needed to develop the legal framework.
Equality in R&I policy-making will change policies. 14
Principles of diversity and equality are at the core of EU values and should be promoted as such -
10
something that EU is proud of and strives to improve even more in all areas.
Both education and workplace, more social cohesion and less fear (for future crises): what a talent
8
and synergy we would have!
Leading EU politicians and officers should show the way and be actively involved in awareness
raising about the added value of diversity and gendered innovations and showcase existing good 6
examples.
Science and innovation need to point to path towards human fulfillment not human obsolescence by
6
robots and smart systems.
Excessive, dishonest or incompetent use of "equality" by policy makers/authorities has to be curtailed.
5
It is such abusive/dishonest authorities that hamper progress towards equality.
This is about development of societies in member states. Leading by example will be useful but
1
regulatory intervention by EU authorities will only fule populist and nationalist campaigns.

225
11.5 Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality techniques are standard practice in 95% of all
educational settings

Number of respondents: 88

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
VR & AR will enhance rather than replace the currently available techniques. 77
VR & AR have to be researched very carefully. We do not want a "one size fits all educational needs".
35
Where appropriate, VR & AR are welcome.
Even in developed countries, the basic educational technologies have changed remarkably little over
35
the past hundred years.
As VR becomes more mainstream and anecdotes of secondary effects (increased isolation, anxiety,
ill-health etc.) proliferate, there will be widespread resistance against the generalized use of these 18
techniques in education.
Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality techniques raise privacy concerns. 14
If mixed realities are just an add-on then it will be the same story as with school television, internet,
12
etc. We need to start from instructional design and the functionalities of this technology.
Oculus warns users to keep the VR gadgets out of the reach of children (and pets). 7

Question is how log will VR and AR be around. 5


New VR and AR technologies under development will address many issues regarding nausea,
5
dizziness, etc.
This would required a very strong investment in education from all EU MS, which will not happen. 2
VR is good for teaching that includes empathy. However, more potential lies in Augmented Reality
2
(AR).
VR/AR firstly need to prove their usefulness in that context in pilots, which may well be funded also
2
e.g. via cohesion instruments if schools apply.

226
Average: 3.51 Dispersion: 1.37

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Using Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality techniques in educational settings (eg schools) will
55
require greater attention in R&I in terms of security, privacy and ethics.
Social and individual impacts (cognitive, behavioral, emotional) of such proliferation of AR/VR tech
39
will alter norms (including research & scientific culture) and practices = new policy conditions.
The long-term neurological impact of frequent use of VR will need to be consistently monitored and
38
studied - and may need regulation.
Technology assessment and social impact of all AR & VR approaches have to be carfully
22
investigated.
All impacts (cognitive, emotional, educational..) of VR and AR should be studied. 13
Research on the impact of extensive VR use on individual personality will be controversial among
9
various interest groups. This will soon become a political question.
Even policies in the EU and elsewhere can be tested by VR in the long run. 8

227
11.6 More than 50% of European universities offer open online learning platforms free of
charge

Number of respondents: 98

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
To learn free of charge would be a great opportunity for people who cannot afford university fees (in
69
some countries) and allows them to have free access to (e.g. higher) education.
Online learning will be used more to supplement competencies as needed than to get formal degrees. 58
The question will arise what kind of value a degree from an "online university" represents: Is it
comparable to a "normal" university degree? Will it be accepted by public and private sector 42
employers?
An inflation of degrees can be expected, unless a thorough and internationally recognised
accreditation system is established. Alternatively, universities maintain the monopoly on granting 23
recognised degrees.
In 2015, there were 35 million students worldwide who registered for online MOOC (Massive Open
20
Online Course) courses. The trend continues; further growth is expected for the years to come.
Due to "network effects" only a few early adopters will "clear the market". There is no need for every
14
university to develop a MOOC-platform.
MOOCs should stick to online learning, without providing "online degrees". Universities could
12
implement exam procedures (not online!) for MOOC graduates, in order to grant a recognized degree.
Online courses will be a central marketing instrument for universities which few can afford to miss. 5
MOOCs will only survive if employers attach value to them. And this will only be the case if there is
5
co-creation, if MOOCs are based on instructional design principles.
Lists for subscribing in MOOCs are available online. Google and other large players are already
5
entering the market of MOOCs.
Having serious competition among universities at worldwide level, offering free-of-charge MOOCs is
4
not the best strategy for an institution to manage its financial sustainability.
But the number of universities will decline as market-based funding and competition for students
3
forces mergers, acquisitions and closures.
Perhaps, but what's the quality of those platforms? The university education system has bigger
1
problems to deal with.

228
Average: 3.68 Dispersion: 1.35
No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
There are a lot more possibilities for life-long-learning and free access to education than we can
78
currently imagine. Policy makers should be aware of the new developments.
Public universities and research and education facilities will be forced to go online, too, to be
59
competitive and acquire students.
Experiences with decentralised MOOCs exist and demonstrate that there are huge new possibilities for
37
different forms of learning, experimenting and being creative.
Truly innovative/useful research will still require personal training and specialized facilities (hence,
22
traditional settings such as universities/institutes) in the foreseeable future, MOOCs or not.
Online education and MOOCs can be very useful for students that already have a degree from a
14
traditional university. It is hard to convey the universitatmosphere and the value of university seminars
MOOCS will make many universities and education facilities obsolete, especially if they have
11
concentrated mainly on teaching.
Some measure of regulation on the EU level might be required in terms of consumer protection. 5
Europe is much more involved in MOOCs compared to the US, policy strategies differ. Until now a
centralised and industrial scenario is used to provide MOOC platforms to HEIs and society. This poses 4
challenges in offering MOOCs.
The balance between number of universities/MOOCs and "market" needs will help to reduce
1
unemployment.

229
230
12. Longevity & the Health System

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance Significance
12.1 EU citizens have a life expectancy of 120 29 3.96 1.11 Later
years on average.

12.2 Health and longevity benefits are priced into 21 3.00 1.70 Uncertain
the property markets across the EU.

12.3 The EU is home to the world’s first tobacco- 28 3.32 1.34 Later
free generation.

12.4 The number of EU citizens who identify 30 3.52 0.99 Soon


walking or cycling as their primary mode of
transportation has doubled (compared to
2016).
12.5 The market for healthcare services that 32 3.75 0.94 Uncertain
promote autonomous living for those
suffering from cognitive ailments (like
dementia, Alzheimer's, etc.) has tripled
(compared to 2016).
12.6 The obesity trend in the EU has been 30 4.07 1.01 Uncertain
inverted, and cases of obesity are now
declining.
12.7 Compared to 2016, 60% of all European 30 4.09 0.73 Uncertain
hospitals have closed down.

12.8 Agreeing to a quantified-self scheme 30 3.88 1.37 Uncertain


(measuring and transmitting personal health
data in real-time) is mandatory for
participation in the health insurance system.

231
12.1 EU citizens have a life expectancy of 120 years on average

Number of respondents: 29

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Experts assume a limit of human life around 120 to 140 years, therefore 120 years is rather long. 17
Life expectancy is still increasing in an average of 3 months per year. Without any additional effects,
14
120 years is possible, but long-term.
To become true, this requires a dramatic shift of lifestyle for all members of a population (no smoking,
12
way less sugar and fat), regular exercise.
To become true, this requires a paradigm shift on medical research (rejuvenation, nanomedicine...).
10
Stakeholders must realize that it is now thinkable to considerably delay aging through biotechs.
Because of the unhealthy lifestyle in the industrialized countries, this will not be possible. In
10
developed countries, the increase of life expectancy seems to already be slowing (i.e. UK).
The fiscal crisis in public healthcare will create an age limit for patients to get life-extension
2
treatments.

232
Average: 3.96 Dispersion: 1.11

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Policies in R&I also need to support the quality of life for all ages - particularly in elderly populations.
26
This is as important as prolonging life.
It will be necessary to reconsider completely the distinction between working life and retirement,
11
between working time and training time.
There need to be policy ideas for funding retirement. The official retirement age has to increase, too. 10
There needs to be policies considering political participation - the elderly people will have much more
6
political power if they are so numerous.
If average lifespans are 120 active working life for most people would be 100 or more. Increasing
2
opportunities for career renewal increasingly important.
Funding for training or retirement must be considered within the broader framework of a Universal
1
Income.
Increasingly functions will be amplified through prosthetics to the degree where age no longer
1
matters for most functions.

233
12.2 Health and longevity benefits are priced into the property markets across the EU

Number of respondents: 20

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
As long as it is impossible to calculate or evaluate the health and longevity benefits of certain living
11
spaces, this remains impossible.
Smart cities are offering more and more sophisticated diagnostic and data services. This makes them
10
attractive for citizens as locations to live - people are willing to pay the price for this comfort.
Property markets are not well regulated, the time frame will depend on market forces. 8
People are attracted to live in locations that are safe and healthy. Homes on busy roadways are
5
priced less than secluded neighborhoods.
Property assets will need to become more liquid to support increasing age and maintain
3
intergenerational equity.
Maybe we will soon see a price on 'clean air' compared to the current property pricing of having a 'sea
3
view'.

234
Average: 3 Dispersion: 1.7

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
This can be a good incentive for prevention and keeping oneself healthy. Prevention research will
12
profit. It needs policy support.
A scientific calculation mechanism has to be developed and politically accepted to define the prices
10
based on health and long life.
As more precise measurement of health benefits of locations become available people will chose and
4
pay accordingly.
People do not allways make rational decisions about property. Many are attached to the place
2
regardless its price, costs of maintaining, or its significance for health or social benefits.

235
12.3 The EU is home to the world’s first tobacco-free generation

Number of respondents: 28

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
As there are a lot of tobacco-addicted people, giving up smoking is not an easy task - this will take a
19
long time.
Tobacco is becoming more and more "uncool". This might lead to a tobacco-free generation. 12

Finland aims to be tobacco-free in 2040 (news from Jan. 2017) 7


In most countries of the Southern EU, tobacco farming is associated with poverty, indebtedness, the
economic dependency of the smallholders of plantation owners and large groups, as well as child 5
labour and environmental pollution.
Smoking addiction is increasingly better understood and increasingly effective countermeasures are
4
becoming available.
Smoking and sugar are deadlier than any gun or war, leading to the most common chronic diseases
3
and causes of death all over the world.
It would be possible only if no economic benefit would be linked to selling tobacco products. 3

236
Average: 3.32 Dispersion: 1.34

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Healthcare costs can be reduced by 10% due to the reduction of tobacco use across all EU member
19
states. Health policies with nudging approaches might be helpful.
This can lead to an increase of two years life expectancy on average. A clear policy goal for it would
19
help.
In some of the poorer countries of the world, the tobacco industry is a difficult economic factor to
8
replace. Policy making has to act on this.
domestic fireplaces are just as bad for peoples health (lungs) as tobacco. Regulations on this could
1
be enforced.
Mentally ill consume disproportionate amount of tobacco reflecting link between nicotine and mental
1
illness. To address tobacco addiction must address mental illness.
Lower healthcare insurance for those living in these areas 1

237
12.4 The number of EU citizens who identify walking or cycling as their primary mode of
transportation has doubled (compared to 2016)

Number of respondents: 30

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
People already know that this is a more healthy mode of transportation - they just need reminders
18
sometimes.
There should be investments in an infrastructure for safe journeys during rush hours. 18
Millennials and other socio-demographic groups looking for a close work-living environment might
12
not need a car and therefore the shift can happen.
People are lazy - and as long as the prices for driving a car are affordable, walking and cycling will
6
not be their first option.
A financial incentive to walk or cycle will help. 6
Walking and cycling reduce healthcare needs with measureable benefits. Basic income could be
3
increased depending on distance walked.
This will not happen because the air quality in many of the cities is getting worse so that it is
3
healthier to travel by car or public transport.
Public transportation, car sharing and other schemes will reduce dependence on cars. 2
Investment in safe bike lanes for municipalities should be encouraged with a prestigious award for
2
cities - like with the climate cities.

238
Average: 3.52 Dispersion: 0.99

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Infrastructure for cycling needs to be supported. 27
Incentives are needed. Policies can provide tax reductions or R&I support if the citizens change to
16
walking or cycling (not including electric cycling).
A movement in health policy supported by R&I figures can help to convince people. 10

Nuding (the friendly push) - a drivers license for all kids in biking and more friendly bike lanes 1

239
12.5 The market for healthcare services that promote autonomous living for those suffering
from cognitive ailments (like dementia, Alzheimer's, etc.) has tripled (compared to 2016)

Number of respondents: 32
No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
As the number of dement people is increasing drastically, the markets will be developed soon. 25
The needs of individuals with dementia still have to be identified, then adequate services and
14
markets can be developed.
Neuroscience is young but attracts funds. Continuous better understanding of neurodegeneration will
10
increase the supply of patient healthcare services.
A comprehensive approach aimed at slowing down (even interrupting) the aging process could
8
provide answers to the vast majority of neurodegenerative diseases.
Prevention of neurodegenerative diseases will gain increasing attention due to the generally
5
irreversible nature of such diseases.
New ways of activating the brain in home care - VR, dancing, social homes etc. 2
Family carers and their needs should be taken into account; as well as financial mechanisms for
2
ensuring that care services are affordable.

240
Average: 3.75 Dispersion: 0.94

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Completely new services and approaches have to be developed and regulated. 23
The growing number of dementia patients leads to a new market for care offers focusing on
18
participation - this has to be regulated.
Early identification of the potential for neurodegenerative disease could lead to genetic modifications
5
or other intervention to prevent onset.
More focus on active aging and healthy living - sleep disorder is major causality related to dementia
5
and Alzheimer as the most frequent form or dementia
If the market for health services develops in favor of cures that attack aging, neurodegenerative
4
diseases could be overcome and the demographic crisis curbed.
Stephen Hawking points to the effectiveness of prosthetics with neurodegenerative disease. Growth
4
of technology to assist those afflicted will expand.
Family carers need to be educated and supported in order to allow ageing in place for their
2
dependent family members. Early diagostic is nessesary.

241
12.6 The obesity trend in the EU has been inverted, and cases of obesity are now declining

Number of respondents: 28

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
There is no sign of change in lifestyle. As long as our nutrition is not adapted, there is no way of
18
stopping or even inverting the obesity trend in the EU.
People are getting more and more aware of food and exercise relating to a reduction in life
14
expectancy and life quality.
The food industries should be motivated through agreements to lower portions and improve nutrition. 12

Obesity is still on the rise. The trend does not seem to be changing. 10

Access to junk food needs to be eliminated in schools and other public places. 7
Education in good food habits in school. Training in cooking healthy food should be on the curricula in
6
all public schools. Basic knowledge about nutrition is a must in educational programmes.
Training on healthy living as of childhood (kindergarten, school...). 3

Healthy food should be cheaper than unhealthy. 1

242
1.01
Average: 4.07 Dispersion:

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Behavioural studies and education are necessary. Most people know about their obesity-supporting
26
lifestyle but it is very difficult for them to change their behaviour (e.g. by more exercise) and diets.
It would have a tremendous impact on health related costs and the incidence of diseases that we
11
have.
R&I on the different causes for obesity at the molecular level is necessary. Then it might be possible to
8
change the trend.
healthy food should become subsidized in EU 1

243
12.7 Compared to 2016, 60% of all European hospitals have closed down

Number of respondents: 30

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
More and more diagnosis, advice and treatments take place online. 15
Due to the costs of hospitalization, the health care system will try to diminish the number of patients
10
hospitalized, replacing this by more cost-effective solutions.
Especially smaller cities and local communities can't afford the costs anymore. 8

Hospitals are replaced by home care. 8


EU population will live longer. Even if we will live healthier and use smart health solutions, closure of
7
60% of European hospitals seems to be ambitious.
Some hospitals will specialize and some will be smaller, not offering full range of service. But not
7
completely close.
Hospitals are cost-intensive and personnel is rare - a lot of hospitals have already been closed. 3
Home monitoring innovations for patients with chronic diseases will help raise the cost of an aging
3
population and trigger changes in geography,
Understanding the processes of aging will enable us to transform the diseases that 90% of Europeans
3
die into chronic diseases. Personal preventive medicine will reduce the need to go to the hospital.

244
0.73
Average: 4.09 Dispersion:

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
People want and need to achieve a longer independent life, the integration of technologies they might
21
need (including technical care) into homes has to be fostered and accompanied by regulation.
To have a hospital in close distance to everybody for cases of emergency is still important and has to
13
be maintained (public task).
Mobile hospitals are proposed as a solution. Such a system needs to be researched, designed, built
9
up, tested, and re-developed.
Healthcare originated disease is best controlled by lessening the concentration of ill people. Home
4
care, outpatient clinics, offer solutions.
Hospitals have a problem with accumulation of bacteria and keeping hygienic standards. Therefore, it is
often better not to accumulate too many people at one place/ hospital. A CDC evaluation found 7 in 10 3
patients with sepsis had recently used health car

245
12.8 Agreeing to a quantified-self scheme (measuring and transmitting personal health data in
real-time) is mandatory for participation in the health insurance system

Number of respondents: 29

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
This would be a big step into the age of post-privacy and would violate various (current) EU rights. 19
People will get used to it. And big data capacities will allow real time transmitting and evaluating of
14
data.
Insurance authorized devices such as CPAP included automated reporting. If you want the care
5
you accept to give data.
People will own their data and decide who gets access to it. 4

60% of US adults are currently tracking their weight, diet and exercise routine. 4

246
Average: 3.88 Dispersion: 1.37

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The EU needs to strengthen citizens’ rights, giving them better control of their data and ensuring that
20
their privacy continues to be protected in the digital age.
The challenge for policy makers is to balance personal rights with the pending changes of the digital
15
revolution.
How is legal ownership determined when a dataset is created and curated by the user himself/ by
6
the employer?
Personalized medicine to be effective has to be measured real time. Those that want the benefits will
6
need to agree to provide the data.
real time availability of data in exchanges between different health care providers is essential 5

247
248
13. Natural Environment, Climate Change & Oceans

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance Significance
13.1 Climate change has displaced more than 1 52 4.14 0.84 Later
billion people worldwide.

13.2 Rising sea levels have reduced the available 48 4.05 1.26 Later
arable land in the EU by 20% (compared to
2016).
13.3 Ocean waters are 50% more acidic (or even 36 3.97 0.86 Later
more, compared to before the Industrial
Revolution).
13.4 Healthy and sustainably managed oceans 39 3.94 1.14 Later
provide 30% of the animal protein
worldwide (16% in 2016).
13.5 Oceans provide 20% of the EU’s energy 45 3.91 0.98 Later
supply.

13.6 Recovered plastic from the sea (including 43 3.86 1.07 Uncertain
micro plastic) covers more than 10% of the
global demand for plastic.
13.7 All EU cities with more than 200 000 51 3.37 1.52 Uncertain
inhabitants have established large zones
where gasoline-fuelled vehicles are
forbidden.
13.8 The Arctic is a protected global nature 48 3.20 1.71 Uncertain
reserve.

249
13.1 Climate change has displaced more than 1 billion people worldwide

Number of respondents: 46

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Global refugees (fleeing conflict and climate change) number over 250 million peoples. (OECD) 35

Effects of climate change will still take some time but they will come! 28

Some of the effects of climate change are happening earlier than many experts predicted. 22

Governments are taking too little effective action as damaging effects grow faster than mitigation. 19

currently: 21.3 million refugees, 10 mio stateless, 65.3 mio forcibly displaced (source: UNHCR) 17

Adaptation technologies will help keep the number lower. 9


Sea level rise (2-7m) will push coastal cities up inland in the 22nd century, and will create smarter
7
infrastructures and jobs.
Adapatation and changes in birth rates will keep the number lower. 5
Plausible under multiple scenarios - ocean currents slow, thaw of permafrost, Trump policies are
4
followed.
But people will move mainly in their own country or regional area. 2

250
Average: 4.15 Dispersion: 0.80

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
A joint policy is needed to reduce conflicts on earth. 42
We need to make both net-emigration and net-immigration countries more resilient in all aspects -
29
environmental, societal, financial - to reduce migration push factors and manage pull factors.
Europe has a great responsibility for finding better solutions for climate change resilient countries and
20
regions and to bring forward more and new sustainable zero CO2 innovations
With the number of displaced people environmental problems rise. R&I policy will pay more attention
14
to that.
Europe needs to cooperate intensively with Africa to address both population and economic threats
12
one continent projects smaller population while Africa growing population.
The core strength of the EU is the capacity for international cooperation which is key to addressing
8
climate change. The EU has the opportunity to provide global leadership.
In some of the countries, the population is shrinking without incoming people - controlled migration
4
policy might be a possibility to stabilize the population and the economy.
Climate change research will dive into a deep crisis questioning its usefulness. 4

The world is going to burn and its too late to do anything about it. 4
CO2 is not the only "climate gas". Science and politics have to focus on methane, CFC and other,
4
too.
There is need for research not only on CC mitigation but also CC adaptation 4
Changing the energy system to renewables has created a crisis in the EU energy system with high
2
costs as coal is phased out and new systems are not yet at scale.

251
13.2 Rising sea levels have reduced the available arable land in the EU by 20% (compared to
2016)

Number of respondents: 45

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
A real challenge for the 21st century. 21

EU wealth will allow improvements in coast protection over time. 17

Sea level rise may provoke changes in sweet water circles by influencing river systems as well. 16

One day perhaps but not before 2040. 12


Rising levels that claim 20% arable land will come with other adverse effects including more
11
damaging storms that further reduce agricultural capacity and increased social costs.
The major problem is not flooding, but saltification of land as sea level rise is combined with less
7
freshwater supply in rivers, notably in big deltas.
Predicted rises are not expected to impact on arable land to this extent. 7
The problem of more acidic waters is rather increasing than decreasing. This will turn arable land into
7
sea or make it impossible to use it for agriculture.
Sea levels will not rise as quickly as expected. 7
It is expected that the climate change will suddenly evoke a rise in the sea levels and thus in a very
5
short time reduce the arable land.
Geological record points to rapid onset of climate change effects post tipping point. Plausible
4
scenario. Intensive research is needed for early detection and counter strategies.

252
Average: 4.08 Dispersion: 1.28

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Policies for early coastal protection are necessary. 30

A boost of adaptation technologies is likely, which creates huge market opportunities for Europe. 26
A key issue is whether highly intensive agriculture (and less extensive) or less-intensive (but more
11
extensive) agricultural practices are more desirable by society and industry.
Urban / vertical farming and closed ecosystem agriculture needs to be developed. 10

New land use policies will be needed on the basis of the reduced amount of arable land 10

The loss of Arctic ice is extremely serious and happening fast 9


There is a need for more research on adaptation, and particularly the new governance regimes that
6
will incorporate adaptation strategies
Regulation for this arable land is necessary. 6
Ocean current shifts are likely with rising seas creating positive feedback speeding up change with
5
onset of weather extremes. More research needed to understand.
Migration to inland zones with fresh water will impact land values lowering coastal prices and
4
increasing inland with dramatic change to ecosystems of both with social and economic impacts.
Research towards living on floating 'communities', resilient with energy, fresh water, farming floats
1
and Wi-Fi is needed, complementary to research regarding fighting climate change

253
13.3 Ocean waters are 50% more acidic (or even more, compared to before the Industrial
Revolution)

Number of respondents: 32

Arguments for time of realization No. of votes


To change the current trend will be a global, long-lasting and costly challenge. Therefore, the
23
timing is difficult to estimate.
Impact of increased ocean acidity and warming waters may destabilize huge methane hydrate
11
deposits in oceans potentially releasing methane accelerating climate change.
Oceans absorbed around 93% of the excess heat due to global warming during the period
10
1971-2010 and 26% of anthropogenic CO2 since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
Oceans are 30% more acidic than prior to indust. rev. Increase to >50% earlier than 2100
plausible. Impact would be end coral reefs, destroy ocean ecosystems. Dynamics must be 9
better understood.
Ocean surface acidity has already increased by 50% due to a CO2 increase by 50% (270 to
5
400 ppmv).
Ocean pH decreased by about 0.05 units since 1990. A 50% increase of acidity represents 0.2
2
pH units.

254
0.75
Average: 4 Dispersion:

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The development will change the whole ecosystem and has huge effects. 26
Policies to stop this have to touched upon different sectors, but there is need for research and a
21
long-term global plan.
Research needed on areas of greatest threat including ocean currents and impact of ocean acidity
13
and warming on methane hydrate stability.
The EU's focus on ocean research could come under strain as its effectiveness will be questioned. 5
EU has an important responsibility in the R&D&I about this issue of acidity increase and also
4
territories in all oceans which give good observation platforms

255
13.4 Healthy and sustainably managed oceans provide 30% of the animal protein worldwide
(16% in 2016)

37
Number of respondents:

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
We are far from healthy and sustainably managed oceans - this will take time. 33

Oceans, if protected and well managed, have tremendous potential to feed humanity. 23
The erosion of coastal areas because of more storms and higher sea level will rather lead to a
9
decrease in food supply from the oceans and coastal areas.
As fishing is in decline, this needs a lot of effort for providing enough food especially in small island
9
states.
Systematic ocean-based farming required to achieve such goals. Surface area exposed to sunlight
7
exists with ample nutrients. Technology needs to be developed for ocean farming.
30% will not be sufficient. We will have to become almost vegetarian. 2

256
Average: 3.94 Dispersion: 1.19

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Global diplomacy and also science diplomacy are needed for the protection of the oceans. 28

Boost for ocean research and mapping must be part of the R&I policy. 18
The potential of a sustainable aquaculture, notably offshore and in coastal brackishwater, is high but
8
needs more R&D&I to improve food security
Need to seriously address the problem of micro plastic in the oceans. More research is needed on
6
that (including on strategies that lead less plastic waste)
Technologies need to be developed for ocean farming with floating farms combining plants such as
6
water hyacinths with fish and other water life forms in self-sustaining systems.
Protecting the oceans is the only way. 4
Ocean preserves need to be developed analogous to preserves on land to maintain biodiversity.
Ocean preserves may require protection measures/technologies not only against poaching and 2
pollution.
Research is needed to identify and breed lifeforms that can adapt to more acidic oceans and that can
1
utilize carbonic acid.

257
13.5 Oceans provide 20% of the EU’s energy supply

Number of respondents: 43

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Wind energy is a major contributor 32

Wave energy from the oceans is not explored, yet. 32

The infrastructure to distribute the energy is too expensive. 12


Methane hydrates in the oceans are the largest untapped energy source. China, Japan developing
7
technologies to use.
Biomass farmed from ocean surfaces can be processed to produce H2. 4

Implementation beyond 2040 due to availability of land-based alternatives. 4


Seven technologies are possible for marine renewable energies MREs but R&D&I is 1% of the budget
4
given to Oil&Gas and Nuclear research; EU has to be proactive in MREs to take the lead.
Biomass from the sea can be used also to provide huge sources of proteins and lipids for aquaculture
3
and human food, which reduce the pressure on fisheries.
Biomass from the sea is a great opportunity for small islands and remote territories for energy supply
1
for and food as well.

258
Average: 3.95 Dispersion: 0.97

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Large EU projects can support this. 32
Energy from the oceans can mean very different things and touch upon different policy sectors:
25
biomass, wind, waves, temperature…
Smart electricity grids and smart metering etc. with storage (for example using a fleet of electric
15
vehicles) is required.
Integrated ocean based farming and energy production are plausible technologies requiring
9
considerable research.
Geopolitics is a major issue in the exploitation of ocean 7

This could trigger a further reduction or even stop of fusion and fission research. 2
Describing tidal stream generation as 'wind turbines working underwater' is wrong for channels
1
which already have high flow losses.

259
13.6 Recovered plastic from the sea (including micro plastic) covers more than 10% of the
global demand for plastic

Number of respondents: 39

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Before making a business out of this kind of plastic recycling, the plastic has to be removed and
20
measures to protect the sea from plastic waste must be developed.
Currently just around 5% of ocean plastics are being recycled. 16

Processing methods and uses for ocean plastics need to be developed. 12


The 'micro-plastic' and ocean plastic problem is due to a relatively small amount of plastic that is
9
widely dispersed.
Microplactics is not a problem only in the ocean but in all ecosystems; the solution would be more
9
R&D in biodegradable new materials to replace plastics.
In 2050, there will be more plastic than fish in the sea – says a report of the World Economic Forum. 8
Plastic in industrial manufacturing needs to be of a specific type and grade, which cannot be replaced
8
in volumes by microplastics recovered from sea.
Low oil prices negatively affect the plastics recycling industry, stemming its growth. 5
Floating integrated ocean-based agricultural systems that absorb waste, including plastics, with plants
2
that absorb various pollutants, "floating islands" that incorporate fish farming and recycling.
It can become a major economic activity for costal populations all over the world. But once it has
become a business, people live on it and decrease in plastics (which is the major aim) would stop the 2
business.
Experiments in Hawaii exist to heat homes with plastic waste. 1

260
Average: 3.88 Dispersion: 1.13

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Policies to prevent dumping plastic in the sea would be necessary. 32

Policies on the reduction of plastic production and use are also necessary. 22
The ability to recover large parts of plastic from the sea could reduce the willingness for supporting
8
research into more sustainable materials.
Preventing a large business to be developed on plastic recovery must be part of the EU policies. 7
Integrated solutions that recycle plastic and other waste while generating energy and useful products
5
need to be examined.
Being able to recover plastic from the sea can be an incentive to dump plastic into the sea instead of
5
reducing its mass or directly recycling it. Regulation has to counter this.
R&D&I on the replacement of plastics make more sense than fishing it 4
Much research is needed to understand the dynamics of plastics in the ocean before a targeted effort
4
to solve this problem; indeed 50% of the plastic waste is missing if theoritical fluxes
There are designs of plants which can use energy from waves to concentrate floating plastic. 2

261
13.7 All EU cities with more than 200 000 inhabitants have established large zones where
gasoline-fuelled vehicles are forbidden

Number of respondents: 48

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The current trend to ban diesel cars and the increasing awareness of health and lives saved will
39
speed up this trend, if electrified (public) transportation gets adequate (climate) policy support.
The speed of introduction is highly dependent on the uptake of electric vehicles. 26

In some cities, there are already areas like this (Amsterdam, London). 14

Many European countries lack the political will to implement such reforms. 12
This trend is huge and will speed up in cities of high cultural value, as it will reduce the pollution in city
10
centres (and related diseases) and facilitate tourism.
Accelerated development of hydrogen-powered vehicles is called for to assure energy security.
4
Electric supply reliability cannot be assured under all scenarios e.g. solar coronal mass ejection.
Finland and Germany are discussing to ban gasoline-fuelled vehicles. 3

262
Average: 3.32 Dispersion: 1.53

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
This is less a question of R&I and more an issue of political will (together with support from citizens
33
and industry).
A ban could boost R&I policies to support alternative engines. 26

On the EU level, there can be some programmes for forerunners. 19

This is communal policy. 11


Hydrogen power addresses climate change like electric, but barriers to market entry are lack of
6
infrastructure and inadequate technical solutions for H2 storage where RD&I is needed.
The only solution will be to go for 100% electric cars, with electricity 100% renewable and new clean
1
batteries: a competition for clean and efficient batteries to be launched!

263
13.8 The Arctic is a protected global nature reserve

Number of respondents: 46
No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Current climate impacts on the Arctic and the associated global risk for the climate will become 31
imminent within a decade.
The race for the resources in the Arctic is on. 27

There are so many countries interested in the Arctic that protection is not in the forefront of thoughts. 16

Political will to protect the Arctic is needed and should be developed within upcoming Arctic 14
conferences.
More research on Arctic evolution is needed to influence public opinion and governments in order to 8
negociate a sustainable balance between exploitation and protection.
There are too many competing interests seeking to develop resource extraction in the near future, 6
and too much already invested.
Making Arctic a reserve will not be enough. Climate change cannot be tackled by making reserves of 3
vulnerable areas.
The race for the resources in the Arctic has been almost resolved in favour of one country. 2

Political will to protect the Arctic is a subset of the will to protect the Earth, which is inadequate. 2
Resource extraction in the Arctic may not be feasible with runaway climate change.
Do not forget Antarctica, which will face soon the same issues. 2

Marine cloud brightening could prevent the loss of Arctic ice. 1

264
Average: 3.13 Dispersion: 1.70

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The EU can support it but it needs an international effort - and a lot of science diplomacy. 32

This is more a question of political will than R&I development. 21


Rules have to be developed on how such a global natural reserve can be preserved or used without
21
harming it.
It is more a matter of R&I dissemination and communication to make clear what is to be protected
11
and how
Arctic research is already strong. 4
We need to also consider global level impacts on the Arctic. Creation of the reserve will not protect it
2
against all pressures (e.g. climate change)

265
266
14. Society, Culture, Digitalization & Governance

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance of
Significance
14.1 The number of people residing in the EU 69 3.75 1.09 Soon
whose original nationality is not from their
country of residence exceeds 80 million (EU
population 2016: 508 million).
14.2 More than 50% of the EU’s population 71 3.45 1.05 Uncertain
desires a rural lifestyle.

14.3 The right to disconnect from work e-mail in 67 3.14 1.39 Soon
free time is incorporated into the labour
regulations of all EU countries.
14.4 Everyone everywhere has free and fast 72 3.71 1.13 Uncertain
(more than 50 gigabit) access to the
internet.
14.5 60% and more of the young adults between 64 3.89 1.06 Uncertain
15 and 25 in the EU are internet-addicted
(internet addiction is an “official” disease).
14.6 The world enters the post-privacy era, in 71 4.27 0.84 Uncertain
which individualized data gathered from a
person’s daily actions and behaviour is fully
accessible.
14.7 Data literacy (personal privacy, handling 70 3.85 0.94 Soon
data etc.) is taught in all primary schools in
the EU.
14.8 European courts accept that persons or 42 3.30 1.38 Uncertain
entities can be held responsible for damages
caused to the genetic code.
14.9 At least one country in the world grants 58 3.34 2.01 Later
selected rights to robots and autonomous
machines.
14.10 On average, only 20% of the population in 67 4.15 1.30 Uncertain
EU countries trust their respective
government.
14.11 A global governance system ensuring 72 3.75 2.01 Uncertain
worldwide peace and stability is in place.

267
14.1 The number of people residing in the EU whose original nationality is not from their
country of residence exceeds 80 million (EU population 2016: 508 million)

Number of respondents: 66

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The free movement of people in the EU together with immigration from around the Union will make it
60
so.
The time of realization depends a lot on the immigration and refugee policies in the EU but it is
47
possible.
The continuation of conflicts around Europe and loose agreement with neighbour countries mean that
35
refugees continue to flow towards European countries.
Free flow of people supports open, integrative societies. 32

Globalization drives the exchange of skilled workers within EU and beyond. 19


The "Millennial generation" will anyway be less attached to physical spaces and traditional institutions
11
(family, etc.).
European involvement in economies and conflicts around the world is a determinant for migration,
8
and the nature and effects of such involvement should be studied.
Only if the immigrants have better countries not exploited by Europe will they will remain in their
7
places.
Since immigrants are NOT limited to Middle East/African nations (typically, the largest percentage of
6
immigrants in a EU country is from a another EU country), then 80 million will easily be reached.
Wealth gaps within Europe, as well as between European and other countries (including sub-saharan
5
Africa), will continue to make key locations in Europe attractive destinations for migration.
If the EU survives, it will increasingly have people living in different locations than their place of birth.
4
If the EU does not survive, even greater mixing of people may be possible, due to wars.
Xenophobia, resource battles and the collapse of the EU will prevent this from happening. 3
At the present time, the heterogeneity of life standards among European countries helps this to
2
happen by raising the attractiveness of the most efficient economic areas.

268
Average: 3.75 Dispersion: 1.09

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
For policy responses to be sound, a substantiated understanding of the phenomena surrounding
migration is needed. Socio-economic research on migration contributes to the evidence base on which 61
such policies are developed.
People from non-EU countries make up an important part of the EU economy. This has a lot of policy
28
implications.
Policies for social cohesion need to be based on studies of the complexity of cultural, socio-economic,
26
and political factors.
The flow of people in the EU is important to increase the competitiveness of many different areas.
23
People from outside are very important for this.
Political populism using social inequality and cultural diversity to create conflict is a democratic
18
challenge that R&I should address explicitly.
There are demands for immigration policies as part of economic and R&I policies - the need for more
17
qualified personnel is articulated by industry.
Africa is the fastest growing continental economy likely to exceed over 2 billion people by 2050 and
15
dwarf the EU. How to accommodate this challenge demands R&I.
Children and young people are increasingly growing up in diverse communities and societies, and
7
knowledge on implications for social equality is needed.
Maintaining EU quality of life requires a moderately growing population creating a demand for
6
immigration, particularly of skilled people.
EU R&I policy may shift from supporting movement of people and knowledge, to supporting specific
5
cities, regions or institutions.
Promoting the movement of people and ideas across the Union has been a core function of EU R&I
4
policies. This function may be seen as no longer necessary.

269
14.2 More than 50% of the EU’s population desires a rural lifestyle

Number of respondents: 68
No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Urbanization is still considered to be gaining momentum, and will take a long time to slow and
reverse. There will be a difference between the experience (vacation) and living a rural life (full-time 60
residence).
Cities offer much in terms of social and emotional infrastructure - "places," services, securities - that
36
rural communities cannot often afford. Peace and pace are as much self-regulated as contingent.
People like the service of cities but also a different quality of life. 34

The living space in the cities is getting even scarcer and more expensive in the future. 25
Even though people might desire a better quality of life, the signs we have point towards even more
16
urbanisation.
A lot of people already desire an idealized rural lifestyle (that does not really exist in rural Europe). 9
The technology dependence of lifestyles is likely to increase, making idealized rural lifestyles even
9
more desirable.
Smart systems, VR and other technology are enabling many of the city's traditional advantages to be
9
realized ruraly, making rural areas increasingly popular.
Living in cities is much more energy efficient. Public transportation, housing governance, and climate-
6
smart solutions are needed to deal with the current problems for city dwellers.
Creating "city-like" facilities (work, entertainment, transportation) in rural areas will reverse the trend. 6
Desires will continue to be manipulated and climate change will destroy the productive capacity of
4
rural Europe.
By 2040, technology will have changed the very nature of work (if there is work at all) and will
3
discourage city-life.
Smart systems make some (but not all!) urban services available in rural areas, and the specific
2
advantages of rural lifestyles outweigh, for many people, the advantages of an urban lifestyle.
Tourism and gentrification are making cities unlivable for full-time residents. 2

270
Average: 3.45 Dispersion: 1.05

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Villages will become more important in the future for sustainable, self-organized living. To
33
keep them vivid is also a political question.
A science and technology based "rural experiences" industry is likely to be one of the
23
growth sectors of the near future.
Locating R&I facilities in rural settings may become part of planning the European
23
Research Area.
There must be policies concentrating on the quality of life instead of mass consumption in
22
cities.
It is impossible to grow the amount of population in rural areas without damaging nature. 11
Rural living is likely to be more intentional communities than traditional rural and as such
see greater change of population as people driving product development to meet this 8
need.
Suitable de-growth and shrinkage policies should be at least discussed, even though it
7
seems its a political no-go discourse
Research could help to enhance innovation in rural areas, such as by the provision of
4
broadband connection and all kinds of services (e.g. drone based)
Reducing the push-factors of city living is crucial to address urban attractiveness. 4

271
14.3 The right to disconnect from work e-mail in free time is incorporated into the labour
regulations of all EU countries

Number of respondents: 66

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Individual rights such as disconnecting from work e-mail will be granted but will not be easy to
40
implement
In conncection with movements like downshifting values, ethical consumerism, and simple living, the
30
slow-life-model is preferred by more and more people and accepted by more and more institutions.
France just gave workers the 'Right to Disconnect' from work e-mail (as of January 3rd, 2017). 30

More and more people are internet and e-mail addicted. They need to be protected. 21
Common regulations on employment conditions face a lot of opposition from national governments.
20
Some countries will want to keep a flexible work force as an argument to attract investments.
The interest of large companies in having thier employees working all the time will eventually create a
15
lot of mental illnesses related to work.
A "Right to Disconnect" just means fighting the symptoms. We need a change in the way we work
13
together and communicate.
This regulation will need to foresee exceptions as not all jobs have the same needs-requirements. 11
Boundaries between work and free time will blur and people don't mind it, because they want work to
7
be completely flexible.
The Right to Disconnect will be promoted as a Human Rights issue. 6
Many administrative tasks being automatable will be managed eventually by computer robots and iot.
1
Messages corresponding to these tasks will be between machines.

272
1.39
Average: 3.14 Dispersion:

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The beginnings of a looming "right to unplug" are already recognizable. The topic is important to all
questions concerning work, work-life-balance and health. As life styles within the EU undergo changes, 43
the frame needs to change, too.
Unplugging and personal health are increasingly related. More than the right to unplug but training in
30
how to unplug and stay healthy needs attention in company health programs.
The development of these individual rights impacts policies in so far as working conditions (and
27
expectations) would change the understanding of productive systems that policies currently address.
Developing a right for employees would be a first step. 20
It will make the pursuit of simplification of existing procedures a bit more difficult to achieve, creating
6
more pressure for a radical rethink of the EU R&I policy delivery mechanism.
Rethink organization of work in function of necessity of controlling machines' work by human, instead of
3
making basic tasks.
Anti-technology movements might require work without 'being connected' at all... 2

273
14.4 Everyone everywhere has free and fast (more than 50 gigabit) access to the internet

69
Number of respondents:

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Even in industrialized countries, there are still areas with low access rates. 45
While it is an important technical, economic and policy challenge, it is likely that eventually all people
37
will be able to access a fast network with minimal effort.
The decisive factor for success is the overcoming of the digital gap, which is also present within
Europe, and the income and age gap, which makes access to the digital world substantially more 29
difficult.
The lust for economic development means that we shall be saturated with internet free access while
protection of data will remain unclear and a very much contested issue donwplayed by economic 22
actors
Very simply, statements including "everyone" or "nobody" are good for politicians, not for serious
18
research.
Internet access is a factor in location decisions by companies and will be considered by states and
12
localities to press for high speed internet.
Elon Musk already announced his intention to activate satellite-based wifi for the full globe. 4
With 1000 times more information available in 10 years at 500-1000 greater speed, this will approach
3
a zero-cost solution and happen quickly.

274
Average: 3.71 Dispersion: 1.13

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Internet access should be a fundamental right as care, water and energy. 38
The issue is not access to internet, even poor people will have free access to internet, the issue is
37
freedom and the refusal of surveillance societies.
It will facilitate scientific openness and "citizen science" at a global scale. It can support the expansion
24
of EU R&I policy to new hights of global reach.
The access to free internet will limit the intellectual growth of society. Children are now adicts, internet
11
will become the alcohol/cigarrette/drug of the very near future.
Investments in areas with low rates are necessary - and sometimes this is a political question.
November 2017 has shown what happens when the German Telekom is attacked - even if it is able to 10
defend its infrastructure.
A major factor limiting the use of the internet is household income. More research is needed the
8
connection between poverty and digital divide.
The internet destroys a significant share of local retail stores and no doubt has other adverse effects.
6
These need to be understood.
Hardware is not the issue. Citizens will have to learn how legitimate decisions are made in an
6
"algorithmic society".
There are technical challenges to be overcome, but the political will should be there. 5
Internet access over FTTH is cheap and for the masses. It is vested interests such as DT that slow
5
rollout
Better primary and secondary education is needed on the dangers of internet and social media
4
overuse and addiction
a fair correlation has to be found between IOT, big data, property of data, investments by huge
companies and unawareness of data flow by citizens to allow capacity development respectfull of 3
people.
More and more service and domestic operation is by internet, streaming, gaming etc. high speed is
2
needed
The significance for EU R&I policy is rather limited, because research on higher and cheaper
1
bandwidth will be conducted anyway by the private sector.
be in place in less than 10 years (starting with the Blockchain) 1

275
14.5 60% and more of the young adults between 15 and 25 in the EU are internet-addicted
(internet addiction is an “official” disease)

Number of respondents: 63

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Being addictive (on the internet) and used by many illiterates, a large amount of false data will
35
become truth, damaging the intellectual growth of our society.
Studies show correlation of high Internet use with depression and anxiety symptoms, problems with
30
planning and time management.
Access to infrastructure cannot be a disease, even if it has harmful effects on the health of individuals
12
(think of addiction to roads, airports etc.).
The numbers of addicted people who cannot work anymore are increasing drastically. 11

Only a minority of people is susceptible to addictive behaviors in the clinical sense. 11


Screen interfaces (e.g. smartphones) will be replaced by augmented reality and communication in
9
natural language, with less health risks.
Next generation IT will dramatically change the way we connect - young adult as well as adults will
9
become more "mature" uses, reducing the addiction issue.
Social networks should move into social-acting-networks that coordinate outdoor activities. 9
Better primary and secondary education is needed concerning internet and social media overuse and
7
addiction.
VR and associated AI with gaming systems may pose a greater danger than traditional opioids which
6
are a dumb technology not geared to engage targeted brain centers.
Screen addiction leads to serious mental and physical health damage, as well as problems in societal
3
contacts. In addition screen-addicts might live in their 'individual news-bubble' and get isolated.
Artificial lights cause damage to the eyes and the addiction to the use of internet, screens, ipads
1
enhances myopia.

276
1.06
Average: 3.89 Dispersion:

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Policy support for new research is needed for understanding and counteracting internet addiction. 35
In a time of "post-truth", the relationship to reality becomes more complex and will require huge
research work from social sciences and humanities going much beyond the superficiality of 32
"behaviours".
This will mean that the incentives to participate live in our society are lower than the marketed ones we
17
find online. Research on how to invert the trend is needed.
Advances in media technologies are broadening the range of people that can be manipulated eroding
13
voting and democracy. Research is needed to preserve human choice.
Researchers are largely exposed to the risk of this addiction. Policy measures are needed to reduce
8
the risk or provide help for internet addicted people.
Addiction and false data are completely separate issues with two different sets of solutions. Addiction
6
will always be part of how we connect.

277
14.6 The world enters the post-privacy era, in which individualized data gathered from a
person’s daily actions and behaviour is fully accessible

Number of respondents: 71

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
There will be major societal movements fighting to maintain a reasonable level of privacy. 63
Individual data is already collected by companies such as Facebook and Google. Trading in these
41
data is a billion-dollar business.
The question is: accessible by whom and under what conditions. A psychiatrist that you choose may
19
potentially have greater access than the cop who flags you for speeding.
Facebook shows that people are willingly reducing their privacy. 17

The right to personal data privacy should become a basic human right in the digital era. 13
It will partly be a question of personal choice. Some, such as a part of those on facebook now, will be
12
more exhibitionist, but many others will be more discreet and choose more privacy.
Government agencies already use individualized data for monitoring. 7
In a valid and honourable democracy, full transparency is not a problem. The social system should
6
support the acceptance of truth.
Perceptions of public, private and intimate space are changing and this leads to serious
6
anthropological implications.
There is strong ideological/populist opposition to this. 5

A sentence including the word "fully" can only be false. 3


Meta data and details data needed will be treated differently. Blockchain based technology will offer
3
new ways of securing correct data.
Distributed ledger technologies may enable masses of data micro-transactions in which individuals
2
benefit from the access of others to their data.
Data hacking in personal healthcare is increasing in frequency. 1
The progress in combination of distributed anonymized data is making a lot of progress, allowing the
1
identification of persons and correlating them to their behavior.

278
Average: 4.27 Dispersion: 0.84

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
As research on privacy progresses, so does the very concept of 'privacy', which is undergoing rapid
44
change. Political debates are necessary.
Research will focus on how individuals change their behaviour in response to decreasing control over
personal information shared with third parties such as companies or close friends. This needs R&I 29
policy support.
There is a need for research into privacy literacy and how to insert it in general education. This needs
23
policy support.
The EU R&I policy may be the spearhead of public access to all data. This may become a huge
12
political risk for the EU. Privacy vs access will be a rising debate for future Framework Programmes.
Full transparency will help research in the field of social science, medicine, ecology and many, many
10
others if not controlled by multinationals.
In the post-privacy society there will be a huge market for privacy tools, which have to be regulated. 8
Everyone being part of the worldwide network unconsciously generating data used by thousand of
1
companies may be beneficial for the rules of democracy...or not.

279
14.7 Data literacy (personal privacy, handling data etc.) is taught in all primary schools in the EU

Number of respondents: 69

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The nature of "facts", "data", and "sources of knowledge" is becoming very quickly an item
of fundamental public debate that needs to be addressed in education as part of teaching 64
critical thinking.
The mission of schools is not per se the teaching of data privacy but how data privacy links
40
up to a life in civil society, freedom and democracy.
The fact that most adults have no clear idea of it will hamper its teaching in schools. 14
There are already training courses in data literacy targeting educators specifically. 11
The educational system is very resistant to change, so this will take (too) long. 9
As people get more and more immersed in electronic and virtual media, individual concern
9
for data privacy will be seen as a thing of the past.
As generations as well as learning and work environments change, data literacy will be
acquired naturally by most individuals - almost everybody will be data literate at a basic 7
level - with no need for formal education.

280
Average: 3.85 Dispersion: 0.94

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Data literacy will become crucial as we get surrounded by sensors - education and training
56
programmes are essential.
Data literacy will facilitate the uptake of citizen-science at a large scale. 36
Understanding the usages of data is key to governing societies. Data privacy and willingness to
31
share specific data is part of the process.
All researchers will be quite adept at handling data. Education policy has to change. 12
This is a matter of education policy more than of R&I policy, even if "usability" will have to be part of
4
Technology design.

281
14.8 European courts accept that persons or entities can be held responsible for damages
caused to the genetic code

Number of respondents: 40

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Rising awareness of impacts of things on health and progress in genetic science may bring cases to
27
courts. It is unlikely that EU courts will accept to map damaged and undamaged genetic code.
The world enters again into a classical debate about "the human", which is defined exclusively neither
14
by genes, nor by culture. The "post-human" debate grows.
As this is not a trivial offense, strategies to punish damages done to the genetic code should be
11
made.
Courts often wait for precedences. 9

Question is unclear. 5
Question unintelligible. Does "the genetic code" mean an individual gene sequence, or the code by
4
which nucleotide triplets are translated into amino acids?
A lot of research work still has to be done to connect human actions and every possible change in
4
gene modification: aging, viruses, natural radiation exposures, chemicals actions, etc.
Damage to the genetic code is more often than not a matter of epigenetics - an area that is
2
impossible to assign responsibility for.
Damage to the genetic code can preclude reproduction, a very serious offense. 2

282
Average: 3.30 Dispersion: 1.38

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Several kinds of ethical-philosophical-political-sociological research are strongly developed in order
25
to avoid or limit commercial misuse of these technical possibilities.
With the new technical possibilities new regulation is needed. 22
There will be incredible demand for science across the EU, to map our relative health and genetics
16
and to support relevant regulations and court decisions.
The role of citizens is enhanced in order to define adapted public policies to limit misuse of
7
technological progress
A better sound social system based on values and not on money is mandatory. 5

Insurance can be possible. 4


Unless maliciously done, damaging the genetic code is not a commercial issue. Accidents happen,
2
but we already have legislation for dealing with that
Question is unclear 1

283
14.9 At least one country in the world grants selected rights to robots and autonomous
machines

58
Number of respondents:

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The development of robots and their emerging rights is a compelling issue with significant and
dramatic impact not only the judicial and criminal justice system, but also the philosophical and 36
political ideas that govern our societal institutions.
The expansion of rights to robots may promote a new appreciation of the interrelated rights and
18
responsibilities of humans, machines and nature.
The singularity is nonsense. We have no model of consciousness as yet, and therefore conscious
13
machines rather than data processors are an impossibility.
The concept of rights does not apply to tools. 13
A legal framework with electronic persons - that's something that could happen in 50 years but not in
9
10 years, says a leading managing director of an industrial association.
This will begin with rights that humans will want to delegate to their AI agents. 7
As deep learning AI (robots programming themselves) will come upon us before 2030, the moral
5
issues associated with their rights will blur. There will be countries that will deal with this soon.
Questions of liability and accountability need to be solved/addressed prior to reaching this goal. 5
Self-awareness is a product of billions of years of evolution within an environment that is both hostile
4
and friendly. A self-aware artificial entity is not implausible. It may be hostile or friendly.
I wonder if that right will be used in order to have more power for private individuals and their legions
3
rather than for true respect and care for robots.
Autonomous AI machines may have responsibilities and the right to be protected from other machines
and humans. Other rights raised mankind out of slavery, while machines have been for so long 2
someone's property.

284
Average: 3.34 Dispersion: 2.01

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
There is much need for research and clarification, as many ethical and legal questions arise
32
concerning the human-robot-relationship. Regulation will be crucial.
Autonomous machines could give rise to networks of cooperative autonomous entities. The
implications of such systems are an autonomous infrastructure that moves beyond the limits of human 28
modulation or control and needs therefore be examined and regulated
The EU will need to deal with new questions concerning the relation between robots and humans.
23
Therefore also legal issues like rules and obligations should be addressed.
This is an issue for legal policies, not so much for R&I policies (but, of course, for legal and policy
8
research).
Autonomous systems may have more logic for recognition of personhood than corporations which
4
presently enjoy free speech rights that become rights to manipulate people and elections without limit.
This is a philosophical issue that will require only very loose legislation - or it may stifle innovation 3
If robots would gain too much rights their owners could use them as armies or economic and social
2
pressure. Robots should be a collective good.

285
14.10 On average, only 20% of the population in EU countries trust their respective government

Number of respondents: 67

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Traditional political response to citizens' concerns is weak, new populist governments fail the tests of
30
reality, and strange multiparty coalitions emerge, but with weak programmes and capacities.
The failure of trust in the political system is the failure of a social system based on economic power
24
and money-making.
New institutional practices will appear due to pressure from below. 23

We already see a massive withdrawal of civil participation (voting, paying taxes). 18

Surveys show that mistrust in EU governments is growing. 14


Some or even many people will distrust government, but the average percentage of people who trust
14
it will not go down below 20 per cent, at least in democratic societies.
Trust in government is a function of civic engagement. If the society does not encourage engagement
11
trust will be low.
A major overhaul of the political system is needed, with more democratic representation. 7
Social uprisings and conflicts may be expected without a transition to a new (fairer and more
7
sustainable) economic system.
Trust is earned. Today's governments have failed to connect with their constituency. That will change
7
- but the slowness of the process depends on more equal societies.
Generalized trust will increase, as an effect of postmodernization. Confidence in institutions will regain
6
momentum, after the current wave of conservative reactions will pass.
Generalized trust is not something governments deserve and is not something they should seek.
5
Governments should be asking to be trusted to do what they are meant to do.
Depends on what you mean by "trust". People will trust some people within the government, but how
3
could you trust an institution?
The governance system has to change before average trust rate drops below 20%. 1

286
Average: 4.15 Dispersion: 1.30

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
New social system models are needed, more space for democratic experimental zones. 29
The research necessary to assess democracy and democratic societies should combine all social
21
sciences and humanities, including arts and literature with strong interdisciplinarity.
Behavioural sciences should be included in policy-making for better understanding of trust and
18
mistrust.
Democracy is in danger, if the citizens do not trust the government, anymore. Policy research is
16
necessary to understand the connections.
Researchers need to start thinking outside the box of capitalism, it's now the time to explore radical
16
alternatives
Civic engagement needs to be systematically encouraged. "How" is a research question. 9
The EU could show the way on how to ensure that it is trusted to perform well in R&I policy. It is a
3
challenge and an opportunity.
This is not an R&I issue, but the legitimacy and effectiveness of R&I policy is of course a sub-
3
category of the legitimacy and effectiveness of politics tout court.
New tools related to direct democracy need to be created. People must be more involved within the
2
decisional process. At the same time, a proper information level must be provided.
Research has to tackle fundamental issues. Is efficient authoritarianism better than weak missionless
2
democracies? Is intergovernmentalism better than a more elaborate like the EU?
The right person, at the right place, at the good time chosen, for a given period, by the citizens and
1
not by a powerful minority. Is this possible ?

287
14.11 A global governance system ensuring worldwide peace and stability is in place

Number of respondents: 71

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The UN will need to change. Countries will need to change. The amount of change required is huge.
48
And so is the need.
Interests will never converge on a global scale. 30
The climate change debate and the SDGs are pushing the government towards a global system of
25
governance that works. This is yet to be found - but it needs to be.
For that we need to find a social system that transcends capitalism. 19

We need a new social system to accomplish this change. 17


The interest of the few is too powerful to allow the creation of a real and trustworthy global
13
governance. This global governance will be undercover and held by lobbies.
Increasingly we have the knowledge to understand and respond to global challenges. This drives
global decision-making. Failure to respond well is seen worldwide, encouraging more effective 9
response.
You are kidding? 3
Benevolence between nations is possible as between humans. Nations must master their will to
dominate by controlling their fear and seek positive interactions with their neighbors. How to build this 3
path?
We would need to understand "Post-Capitalism" (as defined by Paul Mason) before that happens. 2
There will be less than 500 million people on our partially destroyed planet. Governance will be very
2
light.
Global Governance´s cradle will be a solid/complex network instead of a single government like UN.
1
And it will come sooner than later to preserve the current model from uprising radical Islamism.

288
Average: 3.75 Dispersion: 2.01

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The EU has the potential to be a forerunner in many things, why not in being a player in
34
peacekeeping and stability?
The global scientific community may be a key player is bringing about global governance that works.
26
The EU can be a forerunner in supporting this.
A Framework Programme "open to the world" could be the start of a substantial global science
23
movement for good global governance .
A global foreign policy is needed - a foreign policy in the EU is already difficult. 12
Many new innovative governance models, like democracyOS, loomio or cooperacy.org will be
11
needed to have a more interconnected and represented worldwide community.
EU R&I policies need to start supporting research based on critical theory 9

289
290
15. R&I Practices

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time


no. resp. Significance Significance Category
15.1 Systematic scanning of biodiversity to identify 65 3.52 1.17 Soon
substitutes for drugs has become a global research
endeavour.
15.2 In the EU, the number of full-time equivalent research 106 3.86 1.28 Uncertain
personnel increased by 50%.

15.3 The European Research Council has become the largest 105 3.78 1.36 Uncertain
funder for basic science in Europe.

15.4 Science is completely open - communication of results 112 3.83 1.13 Uncertain
is instant, not delayed by patenting procedures or
restricted by copyrights on publications.
15.5 Half of the “top 500” companies in the EU let their 101 2.85 1.60 Uncertain
personnel spend 10% of their paid working time on the
pursuit of personal projects (creative works,
community service, etc).
15.6 A computer-generated scientific research proposal 100 3.40 1.73 Uncertain
(including the hypothesis and research design method)
is accepted for full funding by a science funding agency
in the EU.
15.7 10% of the EU’s R&I budget is allocated by 110 3.29 1.77 Uncertain
participatory budgeting, in which all EU citizens can
shape the research agenda and allocation of funds.
15.8 Citizen Science: 20% of public R&D funds at national 102 3.22 1.32 Uncertain
and EU level go to non-professional (amateur or
occasional) scientists.
15.9 80% of research is performed by autonomous 113 3.35 1.93 Never
(independent, single, freelance) researchers.

15.10 Value and ethical conflicts relating to science and 86 3.62 1.20 Soon
technology multiply to the extent that formal
processes of ethical approval are established for every
new EU research funded project.
15.11 Co-creation (companies and customers jointly 102 3.26 1.04 Uncertain
developing a product) has become the most prevalent
form of innovation by manufacturers.
15.12 Independent citizen innovation accounts for at least 100 3.29 1.33 Never
50% of all innovations (number of novelties) in the EU.

15.13 50% of all universities in Europe have radically 109 3.43 1.45 Uncertain
reformed their organizational structures for research
and teaching with problem-orientation replacing
disciplines as the major organisational principle.
15.14 More than half of the private sector research takes 93 3.99 1.17 Uncertain
place in the emerging economies of 2016.

15.15 Anti-technology movements play a decisive role in 99 3.74 1.33 Uncertain


shaping research agendas in the EU.

291
15.1 Systematic scanning of biodiversity to identify substitutes for drugs has become a global
research endeavor

Number of respondents: 60

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Different conditions around the planet offer a much greater diversity to search in than any individual
58
country could.
Citizen science around the world could help considerably but the political will and digital infrastructures
41
will take some time to build up.
Understanding mechanisms and laws for the interactions of drugs and organisms is very far from
realization. Non-equilibrium states, multiscale approaches in machine learning and context dependent 22
modeling are needed.
A nation state and the EU alone do not have the capacities. 16
Being aware of the side effects of drug therapy, modern solutions should be directed towards selective
and personalized therapies, which can be achieved, e.g., by increased systematic scanning of 13
biodiversity.
Scientific inertia ('labs and hard science' vs. 'softer science and the real world'), scientific arrogance
11
(inventions vs. harnessing what already exists) and patentability reduce R&I efficiencies.
It is easier to find synthetic drugs instead of exploiting the last resources on earth. 10

This knowledge is available, but a global knowledge base is needed. 6


Economic interests being dominant in the medical field of research, no significant change could occur
2
for now without evolution of the scientific democracy.

292
Average: 3.51 Dispersion: 1.16

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
This requires a more open scientific endeavour, shorter patent times, the opening of the laboratory to
44
the world, the breaking down of scientific silos, the opening up of the 'scientific method'.
Global challenges need global answers. But there is so much disagreement in the political world that
37
a lot of science diplomacy is required.
Citizen scientists could very well decide to go faster than policy-makers in establishing the needed
35
digital infrastructure to progress around health related matters (e.g. to food/lifestyle).
The teaming up of scientists and global diplomats is necessary for this to be achieved. 23
This requires also competencies in how to link up different innovation actors with different types of
7
economic interest.
The main role of European policy is in regulating biodiversity. The role for EU R&I policy is more
1
limited.
Research funding should end with the growth finality: drugs development generates cash when
1
biodiversity solution doesn't.
There is a lack of evidence that such replacements will be effective. 1

293
15.2 In the EU, the number of full-time equivalent research personnel increased by 50%

105
Number of respondents:
No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
As long as the funds for research do not increase, a 50% increase in research personnel is Utopian. 78
It's not only about the money - career paths and work/life balance in early science and research
43
settings must become more attractive too.
The main barriers are the lack of a recognized role of research in society, and political priorities plus
41
the unpredictability of future socio-economic dynamics (wars, migration, financial crisis etc.).
Barriers (e.g. insufficient investments in research, unattractive precarious career paths) will slow down
27
the increase, but with the shift towards a knowledge-based economy the trend is inevitable.
The current state of affairs, influenced by global demographic shifts, incentives, and the definition of
25
research personnel, does not seemingly create the conditions for this statement to be achieved.
Increase of investments according to the 3% Barcelona goal, would result in a 50% increase of
19
research staff and personnel.
It is not only about having more research staff, it is about having more stable careers. 19
Money do not raise researchers but researchers do raise money. An increase in numbers of people
16
engaged in R&I will increase R&I budget.
Researchers need to change to innovators that demonstrate value from the activities. 14
Artificial intelligence will increase the efficiency of researchers. Each researcher will simply have to
6
spend less time on rutine data work. Therefore the demand for research personnel will stall.
Half of the research force should be social scientists, looking into the ethics and impacts of the
5
outcomes by the 'hard scientists / researchers'.
Digitalisation and robotisation of science have to be considered, so costs of research will rise, but not
5
necessarily also the number of research personnel.
It's not about more researchers, but their means to provide new knowledge and their availability to
4
share it.
More efforts are needed in both the private and the public sector. 4

The "Barcelona Target" (EU GERD = 3% GDP) may be "third-time-lucky". 4


As the ERA develops further and the regional disparities within it become less stark, the increase in
number of research personnel in currently less developed regions (Eastern and Southern parts) 4
would achieve the goal.
The expenditures for R&D of the university sector and the economy within the EU are likely to grow
2
only slowly within the next decades.
Attitudes towards researchers/ experts vary greatly between EU countries. This influences the level of
2
investment in R&I and the proportion of researchers in the population.
Public funding isn't enough: private one lags in EU http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/
index.php/File:Gross_domestic_expenditure_on_R_%26_D_by_sector,_2015_(%25_of_GDP)_YB17. 1
png

294
Average: 3.87 Dispersion: 1.28

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The increased number is a component, but the priorities, the cross-links with other "pillars" (industry,
58
administration, authorities...) of the society are a mandate to make this number impacting.
The 3% goal already exists. It has to be filled with life. 39
Changes in EU R&D policies should be followed or even preceded by adaptation of existing policies in
27
other sectors: higher education, employment, finances and etc. at EU level
Full-time equivalent research has to be paid - only money can solve the problem. 26
The number of fixed positions should not necessarily rise, the system needs more flexibilty to recruite
16
temporarily the best talents. Carrier pathways between different sectors are needed.
Assuming that the funding is there, delivering on the policy declarations will be a substantially bigger
12
challenge than the one of today.
The effect would be significant but only if there is a balance of research then being conducted along
12
the spectrum of research from fundamental to applied
It is not just about increasing the number of researchers. There needs to be more effective research
8
and research programme management in order that research yields insight and solutions needed.
When all students will have been at least once citizen scientists, the rest will follow. 6
People are at the core of the research endeavour, so having more researchers should translate into
6
more and better science
The capacity of the ERA would increase enormously. This would bring massive opportunities for EU
6
R&I policies,, including some challenges how to seize them best.
I completely do not understand how any of the previous answers support the evaluation of the above
5
statements' relevance.
More social scientists to be involved in research to focus in the impact of innovation on society. 3
How to control research to be conducted in a 'responsible' way when doubling the researchers
3
workforce?
In case the body of researchers would increase by 50% this is just to be considered as a significant
3
change in the context of R&I policy making...?
This statement will not be significant if R&I policies is still conducted in the same way, on the same
2
topics
Increasing efficiency and reducing bureaucracy may be a more cost effective way of improving
2
research capacity in the EU.
50% researchers doesn't mean 50% innovations and 50% (in)direct jobs more. How do EU policies
tackle the 3 aspects? how are they articulated? Research & innovation are dramatically different 1
things
Increasing researcher numbers will have the largest impact on research in regions with low research
1
capacity.

295
15.3 The European Research Council has become the largest funder for basic science in Europe

Number of respondents: 101


No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
ERC will be the major EU player only if they promote basic collaborative research, thus moving
46
beyond the individual team.
The constitutional foundation of EU support for basic science is much weaker than the German
43
support for basic science.
The balance between basic and applied funding is important, as well the total amount of budget for
41
research.
Brexit weakens substantially the support for a strong ERC. 23

As there are not many funders for basic science in Europe, anymore, this might be easily achieved. 19
Not sure if that means that the budget share of ERC will increase (desirable) or if other schemes will
18
stop funding basic science (highly undersirable).
The European Research Council funds more and more applied basic research, less pure basic
15
science, so they spend less money on pure basic science.
The Excellence in basic science, which is already a global enterprise, will be recognized more on the
15
European level and thus the funding for basic science will shift more towards the ERC.
Investing in 'basic' or 'free' science should be done at all levels (universities, institutions, member
10
states, regions, EU).
The ERC has placed Europe on the global stage funding frontier research, but member states should
8
also be investing considerably in such research at a national level.
Funding basic science, in particular for single beneficiaries, is a job for member states which need to
build capacity. Unless EU integrates further, this is not an aspiring statement for impactful 6
collaboration.
There is no political space in the EU for a significant increase in the EU budget. 4

ERC is not transparent in the evaluation process; it should fund good science, not basic or applied. 4

The European Research Council no longer has disposable funds. 2

ERC needs a different approach. 2

Is it the will of European citizens to have a large fund for basic science? 1
The aim of the ERC is to foster competition at the top end of research in Europe. Becoming the
1
largest funder is not necessary to achieve this.

296
Average: 3.78 Dispersion: 1.35

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Basic funding is essential for future scientific progress - policy needs to sustain basic research, not
69
only applications or developments
Basic science funding is needed, but there is room for an ecosystem of funders for all kinds of
38
scientific work. It is undesirable to see undue dominance of any one funder.
The funds must definitely increase to keep a high share of funding for the ERC. 35
The entire Research and Innovation chain needs to be supported. All TRLs need to be covered, e.g.
31
by collaborative Research Projects of PPPs.
Basic research should be linked better to innovation programmes and education 24
There must be a clear division between the basic science funds and more applied research funds -
maybe one represented in the European Research Council and the other in the European Innovation 23
Council.
ERC funds essentially an elite of scientists; there should be other person-based funding schemes to
11
ensure effective distribution of funds.
In some countries national support to basic science is likely to increase - fueled by the desire to draw
9
ERC grants. In other countries support may disappear altogether as scientists are sent to ERC
The debate about how much basic science Europe needs is likely to be dominated by the existance of
8
the ERC.
ERC should be the model for research funding in Europe and include collaborative research funding
6
as well as more proof of concept investment
Collaborative research in low TRLs is squeezed in H2020, while ERC Budget is increased. This is not
5
a healthy balance for better cooperation between EU member states.
Assuming this fund concerns science with no clearly identified applications, not funded by ERC
mechanisms, their higher allocation will thus deeply change EU R&I policies. 1

297
15.4 Science is completely open - communication of results is instant, not delayed by patenting
procedures or restricted by copyrights on publications

Number of respondents: 110


No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
For publications it will be very soon, maybe 2025/30 - pushed by EU level policy. Looking at patents,
there are different incentives in place and there is not yet a policy how to alter the scheme of 75
incentives.
Scientific research funded by private actors will not be open until said actors can be fully
62
compensated for their upfront investment (which must also failed initiatives and projects).
Contrary to open research, open innovation is an illusion in a competitive world market. 38
Open innovation does not mean IP is free. Instead, IP is packaged piece-wise, so that it can be
traded. Hence you do not need to invent everything in-house, which greatly boosts innovation 33
efficiency.
It will become increasingly clear that open science is better science. It requires a cohort of younger
25
scientists and others who experience open science and are trained in it to become established.
Open science does not mean universally, instantly and freely available science to everyone. 20
Scholarly communication will change to take advantage of new media and possibilities. It is unlikely
12
that this will be un-mediated, because mediation is a key function of the scientific community.
Terrorists and other potential abusers would have access to information with harming potential. 11

All publicly funded science has to be open. Simple as that. 9

There are important players (e.g. NASA, Space X) that have made their science open access. 8
Open science needs to be enhanced and made possible by all actors: goverments, research funding
6
and performing organisations, researchers, citizens.
There always will be some agents (companies, universities, states) which have an interest in and
4
depend on monetary benefits from R&D findings and therefore defend IPR.
Interrelations are more important than 'opening' science. 4
A balance needs to be struck between the possibility to generate economic returns from science and
2
the benefits of sharing scientific knowledge openly.
The SDGs and the like, such as sustainability, will happen only if open science is a normal practice.
2
But it will take time and further global crises for such practices to happen!

298
1.12
Average: 3.87 Dispersion:
No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Current policy actually pushes towards open science. For the future, new incentive schemes have to
53
be in place that might generate an alternative to patenting.
Open public science is essential for EU cohesion, excellence and innovation, but open innovation with
34
private funds is limited when going to the market
This will create major disincentives for private investment in innovation. 27
The impact of such a development would radical change the way that policy is crafted - who it
18
addresses, and how it function in regards to a multiplicity of new actors, standards, and motivations.
It will disincentivize many researchers from pursuing practical applications of their research. 13

Open methods have to be considered, too. 13


Industry and private research are also opening up. They are realizing the limits of 'closed' research
12
and the exponential potential of opening up and sharing knowledge on an early stage.
Publicly-funded science should be open, but then researchers should not be assessed on how their
11
scientific results are applied.
Looking at patents, there are different incentives in place and there is not yet a policy how to alter the
10
scheme of incentives.
Removal of all barriers and filters is a recipe for anarchy not for efficiency 4

Lack of multi-perspective multi-disciplinary research. 1

299
15.5 Half of the “top 500” companies in the EU let their personnel spend 10% of their paid
working time on the pursuit of personal projects (creative works, community service, etc)

Number of respondents: 96

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
If the 10% time is proven to be a value added for companies (in terms of innovation, public relations, or
74
market penetration or maintenance), then such practices can become more widespread.
It might be just as advantageous to reduce working hours or increase high-quality training/work-
45
experience placements if the idea is to improve productivity/creativity and R&I outcomes.
In economically bad times, companies acquire idea generating companies and their intellectual
18
property, and do not spend much money on R&I.
This is impossible to control. 16
This is empty rhetoric. To some extent, many employees have had these opportunities for a good
16
while - though not packaged in this rhetorical and political fashion.
10% is too much. First, companies have to understand that they need to foster the creativity of their
13
personnel in R&I, and lessen the focus on hours worked.
This kind of practices will be a competitive edge for companies hiring the best personnel. And anyway,
8
free time and work time have already blurred in many places.
A “20% time” policy has been introduced by Google, after observing that many creative ideas
happened in this matter; in 2013, Google representative declared "20% time" to be "as good as dead" 7
because it became too difficult for employees to take time off.
This will be significant rather due to automatization in all sectors. Probably 30-50% will be better for an
4
enterprise to prosper sustainably.
This is a bit too arbitrary. 4 hours a week is not much time to make progress with creative ideas! There
4
are other ways to achieve the goal.
This statement doesn't concern the future EU public policy in R&I. The personal projects of the
3
personnel should remain personal, that means they should remain out of the working time.
Sharing staff with R&I performing organisations may lead to more impulses and ideas shared, (public)
2
higher education organisations may also organise similar ear-marked time for teachers to keep up!

300
Average: 2.83 Dispersion: 1.54

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
There is a time lag between the creative outputs and the innovation or performance in R&I. There
53
must be an incentive to prepare and perform creative R&I.
Companies will not move into this direction if it is not necessary or seen as fruitful. Political support is
33
essential.
Notions of full time employment may need adapting in Framework Programme contracts. 25
It could significantly increase the effectiveness of EU funded efforts to promote firm interaction with
16
University. This 10% reserve could be used by firm employees to engage in collaboration
This "permitted bootlegging" needs research and experiments. 13
Research is not necessary. Innovation comes out of ideas and that is not a matter of working time to
12
be fostered by policy. People can do this in their free time if they like.
Government policy should not interfere with company policy. 8
Companies should surely be able to support the development of creative thinking (linked to better
6
R&I) within the workplace without setting a 10% time out rule
Hopefully not. Research should be left alone and safe from such empty political rhetorics 4
Research and creative thinking does not per se be linked to innovation: impact on society often is
4
forgotten in research.
This can have benefits both for companies AND for Society as a whole. Policy could incentivise this in
3
order to enhance societal benefits of private sector knwoledge.
If EU is searching for better creativity coming from personnel activities, then EU policy should favor
2
working-time reduction.
If significant amount of the working hours will be spent on individual interests and the EU want to
1
support this, then a fundamental change of project administration will be needed.

301
15.6 A computer-generated scientific research proposal (including the hypothesis and research
design method) is accepted for full funding by a science funding agency in the EU

Number of respondents: 97

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Big data and AI are to become mature technologies in the next decade. 49

This cannot be generated, and proofed, in a fully autonomous process. 44


Scientific papers generated by software have already been (accidentally) published in peer-review
31
journals. It shows a failure of the peer-review publication process and ivory tower mentality.
AI may soon be able to create such a proposal. However, if funding agencies do not take precautions
19
to avoid the scenario, those responsible deserve to be replaced by AI themselves.
We will probably have strong predictive analytics for complex systems, but their models will be too
14
complex to be translated into scientifically debatable hypotheses.
The writing of the proposal, even if it's a burden for researchers, helps academics design their
13
research.
Modelling of complex systems (e.g. environment) will require such an approach. 12
All proposals today are computer-generated to a considerable degree. If the statement is about the
10
motivation, what would a computer do with a grant?
This question suggests a deeper reflection on the difference between AI and human consciousness: I
10
see a risk in mixing human behavior and efficiency/performance in activities.
Given the overburdened Review systems, this may already have happened. 6
Almost all proposals are co-authored. The contributions from AI will soon be substantial enough to
5
merit acknowledgement.
Awards of research grants is pretty much random anyway, so why not? 4
As AI mainly is based on input of the 'creators', their ideas are the bases for AI generated proposals,
3
so all will be strongly biased.
If the funding system pursues a very formalistic, systemic approach this is likely to happen. There is a
3
lot of generic recycling of proposals anyway!
If this happens, we have created a funding system that recycles ideas and fills in gaps instead of
3
developing new concepts.

302
Average: 3.4 Dispersion: 1.73

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The question itself tells us that we should be rethinking how research funding is allocated -
38
fund people not projects.
We need considerable progress in open data and data security – and the acceptance
37
procedure needs a political will.
There might be a value in this regarding building new networks: the computer can help to
26
"objectivize" the search for research/ co-creation partners.
A significant debate is needed on the rise of AI, the human-machine interface and
23
humanity in the 21st century.
A repository of hypotheses and studies about them would be needed to increase the
14
efficiency and transparency of this type of science.
There is a need for cloud services for accessing big simulation models. 11
The major innovations we have today came from human generated ideas (perhaps utilising
computing). Citizen science needs humans to be at the core of future innovation - enabled 8
by not generated by AI
AI systems are not objective. You still get as an output the basic elements of the input. 2
This fully hypothetical question does not raise interesting debates 1

303
15.7 10% of the EU’s R&I budget is allocated by participatory budgeting, in which all EU citizens
can shape the research agenda and allocation of funds

Number of respondents: 107

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Needs careful consideration to avoid turning research into a popularity contest. 63
There are no models for the distribution of the funds based on citizen voting. To develop and test
52
them takes time and a political will.
This would be very democratic and is necessary as citizens pay funding with their taxes. 32
We have a representative democracy. Direct citizen involvement may not be a good general idea, as
has recently been proven. Better to involve citizens in the idea generation and the implementation 29
phases.
There are Research and Innovation topics for which specialized knowledge is necessary (e.g. for
safety- and security-related issues) in the preparation of research agendas. This cannot be done by 23
citizens alone.
A great idea for the next Framemwork Programme. 22

Cloud funding of research, which already exists, may be a precursor to such an approach. 17
Participatory budgeting experiments (i.e. Porto Alegre, Brazil) can serve as a foundational model for
11
such a system.
A fixed share does not make sense. 10

It is a power game - the European Commission will not give away this power. 7
There is no reason only 10% of the R&I budget will be decided by citizens, when democratic tools
3
should be in place for the entire EU's R&I budget.
This could be a good way to engage younger people by having a young persons/schools vote. 3
Who influences public opinion? Currently that seems to be the media and populist opinions. - Not a
2
great basis for allocating research budgets.
Public acceptance of certain developments will already be taken into account in new research. 2
There are first examples of involving citizens more strongly in R&I priority-setting and funding (e.g. in
1
the Netherlands).
It is a power game, indeed - but the EC is not the only player. Further, we cannot know how the
Parliament, the European Council, and the EC would play this game, strongly influenced by many 1
factors.

304
Average: 3.27 Dispersion: 1.77
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy No. of votes
It is necessary to involve citizens in actually doing R&I as well. Scientists receive public funding, and
50
they should collaborate openly with society.
It is necessary to distinguish citizen participation in research (highly desirable) from popularity-based
42
funding allocation (undesirable).
It is necessary to include the citizens in the decision-making processes in a democratic way. 41
This is a matter of efficiency. R&I engaging citizens from the start are more likely to produce more divers
26
and better adapted solutions.
Do we really want research directions to be dictated by (necessarily short-term) popularity? 17
Already now strategic funding decisions are informed by participatory processes. Hard to tell how much
15
involvement brings what benefit.
The political will to give away the power on a part of the funding is necessary. 14
New methods for counting the votes and modeling these results into a distribution of the funding are
5
needed. They have to be accepted by policy-makers.
It would be much more effective to increase participation on a regional or national level. 5
If cautiously designed, misled "democratic" priority-setting can be avoided and balanced with science-
1
based expertise
Wishes and needs of the citizens are covered by the research. 1

It would show the EU R&I policies in a bold light 1

305
15.8 Citizen Science: 20% of public R&D funds at national and EU level go to non-professional
(amateur or occasional) scientists

Number of respondents: 100

Arguments for time of realization No. of votes


20% is likely to be too high. Big expenditures go on infrastructures and technologies - not
salaries of what are currently mostly volunteers. Even a smaller contribution would make a big 54
difference.
Quality and scrutiny remain important, laymen science is not a model for the future. In
39
experimentation or development, it might be different.
Professionalism is a guarantee of quality. If occasional scientists receive funding for their
28
activities, this would first need validation processes proving they are qualified.
The open innovation model is more efficient than citizen science, using the same pool of non-
25
professionals.
Ideas from non-professionals can be disrupting, but the capability to implement/perform is
another story. I suggest a "lump sum" contribution for ideas from non-professionals in the next 24
FP, as a crowd funding process.
We should first try to adequately support professional scientists and only then reserve part of
13
the budget for volunteers.
The definition of amateurs and non-professional scientists includes those who are not paid.
12
However, 20% of funds could go to projects that involve unpaid citizen-scientists.
There is political interest at EU level, but the subject is not on the agenda of the EU countries. 9
20% of public R&D funds at national and EU level go to participatory research projects,
4
involving academic and non-academic scientists.
If R&D investment ever grows to be more than 3%... 3

This opens the way for a lot of lobby work... 2

Could be of interest when it comes to jobless growth and UBI! 1


The statement puts together EU and national level, but not as a "total"; it cannot be assessed
1
without confusion.
(Basic) Research and Innovation are two different processes. Mixing both creates confusion in
1
the answers to be given!
With more and more jobs being highly knowledge-intensive and research-oriented, the share of
1
non-professional scientists doing research is likely to rise very quickly.

306
Average: 3.19 Dispersion: 1.27
No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
We need systems/ procedures for checking data reliability and quality when produced by very diverse
34
contributors.
Science-Society interfaces and interactions have to be constantly negotiated and improved. 22

There is need for massive promotion of this culture of citizens science. 20

Engaging Europeans in European R&I will support the co-creation of a desirable future for Europe. 16

It is important to not allow amateur citizen-science to undermine the importance of scientific carreers. 13

Engaging students in European R&I as citizen scientists will strengthen the European project. 10

New reputation mechanisms are required for the contributors. 6

How to ensure RRI? 4


As in the case of "open science", removal of barriers and criteria is a recipe for anarchy not for
4
efficiency. This would be yet another way to suffocate an already-struggling research environment.
Significant increase in R&D investment as well as in education will be required before involving highly-
3
qualified citizens in the process.
CItizen science may produce complex knowledge linked to complex environmental problematics for
3
example, while identifying orphan subjects.

307
15.9 80% of research is performed by autonomous (independent, single, freelance) researchers

Number of respondents: 112

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Long-term research will still require strong research organizations. 92
A lot of research relies on infrastructure - what infrastructure would these freelance researchers be
62
using?
Complexity mandates collaboration between various teams, individuals, disciplines and organsiations. 49

Discoveries will increasingly be made by socio-epistemic networks, not by individuals. 28

Irrelevant. 13
The statement does not describe a stable market situation. The underlying problem that leads to the
described situation is very relevant: uncertainty of jobs, an in particular fixed-term work contracts. A 12
more probable reaction is that researchers leave.
Big companies are reluctant to work with independent researchers. 11

The open innovation model is on the rise in the business sector. 9

Where would they get the facilities and equipment? 5


This is the only model of sustainable development. Institution-driven research is bound to fail due to
4
bureaucracy and rigidity.
The influence of big industry or interest groups will not be controllable. 2
How would these researchers cope with ever-changing compliance and regulation issues in an
1
international research arena?
Autonomous researchers will play a more significant role once research infrastructures are more
1
openly accessible, and international research agendas are coordinated increasingly bottom-up.

308
Average: 3.35 Dispersion: 1.93

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
We need credible reputation mechanisms to guarantee the quality of research. 27
This will mean that reputation of researchers is really important. But teamwork is also important and
critical mass as well. Individual researchers will work together on a project basis, but soon (more) 19
small companies doing contract research will emerge.
We need solutions to compensate for the loss of organizational memory. 10

This approach works only within agile social networks - this can be a policy question. 8

Relevant will be a quality control of proposals and results. 7


It is important to reduce exploitation of flexible researchers by corporate entities (public or private).
7
Systems like "money follows researcher" help in this respect.
Well-defined research groups and well-defined research projects can be assessed more efficiently and
3
are more flexible than diffuse networks, regardless of which institutions they work in.
Credible mechanisms are required to see if the research outcomes are biased by interest groups. 2
Independance of researchers can only be guaranteed by their employement by an independant
2
research organization, with whistleblowers protections.

309
15.10 Value and ethical conflicts relating to science and technology multiply to the extent that
formal processes of ethical approval are established for every new EU research funded project

Number of respondents: 83

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Formal processes of ethical approval are already in place for every single project. Public
56
policy debates will concentrate on the extent of grey areas and the positioning of red lines.
Ethical approval processes will not be sufficient for addressing ethical conflicts relating to
39
science and technology, which can be much broader than individual research projects.
Ethical approval might become important, however, what is ethical will become more and
25
more contested with AI and synbiochem on the rise.
Formal ethical processes already exist at project level. The key issue for the future is
whether they are monitored and whether there are consequences from their (insufficient) 17
implementation.
Isn't this already the case today? No doubt this can be built upon incrementally with political
14
will.
Examples of today's socially relevant problem areas of research ethics are the areas of
animal experiments or human experiments with subjects, stem cell research, genetic 14
engineering, research on armament purposes, resource consumption.
Never, otherwise research in areas with strong conflicts about values and ethics (AI or
7
Synthetic Biology) will take place outside Europe.
There will always be research areas which do not raise ethical issues, and freedom of
4
research just means that the default position is no formal approval required.

310
Average: 3.60 Dispersion: 1.19

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Ethical consideration and discussions concerning ethical implications of emerging technologies should
be broadened, as how we approach the regulation of emerging technologies will inevitably have wide 53
implications on our societies.
Will be very much needed in some areas such as biology or health and is impossible without policies. 46
Formal EU processes need to set in place the right conditions for the public debates in Europe and
19
invite the other parts of the World to take part to these debates.
This is based on the hope that you (policy-making) can control everything in research, but you can't. 13

Formal EU processes need to regulate these conflicts. 11


The debate on RRI is polluted by the mixing of two different processes, basic research (free or
5
oriented) & innovation. Without distinguishing both processes, it is impossible to answer this question.

311
15.11 Co-creation (companies and customers jointly developing a product) has become the
most prevalent form of innovation by manufacturers

Number of respondents: 98

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Co-creation between companies and customers is already the case in many domains but co-creation
57
between companies and citizens is not. Non-customers influencing companies will take time.
This idea is old but the methods to bring them together and make them work for a longer time are still
47
underdeveloped.
Co-creation is also about collaboration between businessess, governements, individuals and
41
education.
If we broaden the co-creation process to include user-data gathering and analysis by businesses,
34
then this statement seems not so far off.
It is still a long way until it is the most prevalent form of innovating, there have been a lot of attempts,
12
but it is difficult to keep customers interested in participation.
A user-driven approach to innovation becomes more prevalent, with customisation of needs as the
11
driver.
Co-creation will become a reality in manufacturing, and decentralization in any sector is clearly
8
needed (health, food etc.).
Why should citizens or the customers be motivated to take part in co-creation? They just want to buy
7
a product.
It takes much too long to agree on the desired design parameters as coupled with the necessary
4
technology and production methods.
The business model for co-creation (i.e. revenue generation to justify the customers' conscious
4
contribution) is not robust, hence, it will be only apply narrowly in niche markets.
For many SMEs, innovation is customer-driven anyway. Manufacturing innovation in the B2B sector
3
thus is already relying widely on some kind of co-creation.
Without any change of our society's organization, that means that customers will pay twice for their
2
product, first by their work to develop it and then by buying it.
This would put the customer in a very committed position, limiting their individual liberties on the
1
market, and driving society towards an excessively feudal-like structure

312
Average: 3.24 Dispersion: 1.01

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Co-Creation is much more than that - it means all stakeholders. 54
Policy needs to raise the awareness for more customer-centric developments according to the needs
50
of the people and society as such, and lessen the influence of the technicians.
An atmosphere for "joining forces" can be supported - by programmes and by political will. 33
Platforms for bringing citizens/ consumers and producers together need to be installed and funded to
25
activate the Prosumer movements.
The maker movement needs support and publicity. 8
Citizens, customers and manufacturers do know their needs and business opportunities. If there is
5
real value in co-creation policy-makers better trust people to make best use of it without intervention.
Co-creation needs new monitoring system to control the process. 3

313
15.12 Independent citizen innovation accounts for at least 50% of all innovations (number of
novelties) in the EU

Number of respondents: 97
No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Citizens have ideas but not the money for innovation, and often, their ideas are just developments
62
instead of "innovation".
The large companies will buy the ideas and patents before they are counted as citizen innovations. 38
It is unclear to me why citizens should have an interest in spending their time with technical
26
innovation.
Technologies that facilitate citizens' innovation (ICT, 3D printing, CRISPR, etc.) are increasingly
24
available.
Counting innovations is very tricky. Von Hippel (Free Innovation) found that "24.4 million people had
15
developed or modified products for their own use" in US, UK, FI, CAN, KOR, JP.
Significant innovation by non-trained non-specialist people is particularly unlikely. Successful cases
15
may entail specialists working individually, even if self-trained (never true amateurs).
Innovation is not only technological. Most of the innovations will be created in social, administrative,
14
cultural... fields with the support of existing new technologies.
There was always private time innovation but now, working hours are decreasing, hours of private
12
time are increasing and there are a lot of new possibilities.
Citizen innovation (especially in non technological fields) will not be registred by any countable EU
6
system.

314
Average: 3.29 Dispersion: 1.33

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Citizens often do not know how to bring their ideas to the market - they need "schools" and
28
an infrastructure for it. That has to be supported by policies and institutions.
Citizens need support to become entrepreneurs and realize their innovations on the
28
market.
Citizens involvement can be very important in societal innovation (rather than technological
14
innovation). Research should not be economically driven, but also value driven.
The rising importance of citizen' innovation makes a case for a radical shift of EU policy
12
towards ensuring that citizens have world class skills and access to world class equipment.
Intellectual Property Rights questions have to be answered. 12
Policies would have to adapt towards how to engage with individuals, and if participating in
3
funding programmes, how to reimburse costs
Independent citizen Innovation is likely to become more important, but it will not outpace
1
Innovation in a professional Environment (possibly with citizens' Inputs; co-creation).

315
15.13 50% of all universities in Europe have radically reformed their organizational structures
for research and teaching with problem-orientation replacing disciplines as the major
organisational principle

Number of respondents: 106

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The importance of the problem-based approach will increase, but both aspects will always
be needed. And the disciplines represent the timeless aspects, rather than the problems of 60
today.
Today's universities are remarkably like their ancestors hundreds of years ago: change will
40
only happen at the margins of the system.
Many universities, like universities of applied sciences, have already put co-creation,
35
problem-oriented teaching and research in place.
Not every (type of) problem can be foreseen, thus problem-solving is a short-sighted
17
education model. Disciplines are toolboxes to solve (even unidentified) problems.
It is difference between problem-orientation, which often requires that engineers interact
15
with other disciplines, and multi-disciplinarity, that would apply also to basic sciences.
Addressing complexity is a matter of approach and competences. It needs time for
15
educating and training: a "class" of experts will require economic support for talents.
Problem-orientation as organisational principle would require an extremely flexible HEI
governance and administration and is a challenge for all HR involved. Whereas discipline- 13
orientation provides stability.
Bombastic toxic empty rhetoric. One needs mathematical, chemical etc. training and
12
knowledge to solve problems. Disciplines and problem-solving are not mutually exclusive.
Forthcoming leaders have to learn how to deal with complex issues. Redesigning academic
10
programs is therefore needed.
The League of European Research Universities (LERU) and similar consortia will be
6
pushing inter- and transdiscplinarity in increasingly stronger terms.
Problem orientation can be focused on societal issues rather than innovative products. 5

316
1.45
Average: 3.41 Dispersion:

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
With a critical mass of cases, it will be easier to understand what has worked in the organizations or the
units which have switched to a problem-oriented approach, and mainstream solutions at lower levels of 42
education. This needs policy support.
Research will focus on the impact of a problem-oriented or interdisciplinarity-oriented organization of
35
higher education and research on global societal challenges if demanded by policies.
The R&I policies of the European Union should not depend on the organization of some universities. 30
The shortening time-frame of academic programs (e.g., BAs, PhDs) is not easy to reconcile with
27
interdisciplinarity, leading to persistent tensions among professional values and practices.
Start the process by bi-disciplinarity and by promoting science curiosity and reflectiveness 22
While the shift towards a problem-based approach is important, it is mainly an issue for national and
1
regional policies (beware of formal competencies!)

317
15.14 More than half of the private sector research takes place in the emerging economies of
2016

Number of respondents: 91

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Look at the demographic patterns. As emerging economies grow and invest more in R&I they will have
66
a massive pool of people ready to get involved in R&I.
Emerging countries like South Korea, China or India currently invest heavily in R&I - and when they
60
earn enough money, the companies invest in research to secure the future
As the emerging countries South Korea, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Malaysia etc. have good
41
education systems and very good scientists, they have more capacities.
Developing and "emerging" countries need a long time span to shift from just copying, OEM or basic
economic considerations to R&I industries and economies. Initial investments are typically spent on 14
projects that generate immediate returns.
Changes that involve educating new generations of people always take longer than expected. 11
Scientist wages increase with time but remain low in emerging economies when compared to their
8
peers in industrialized countries - therefore it is cheaper to hire them in their home nation.
Depends on EU framework conditions. Companies are off-shoring R&D capacities to get closer to
1
resources or markets but there is no drive to move out of EU just because.
Sorry, hardly any of the comments above is relevant for this statement. 1

318
Average: 4 Dispersion: 1.18

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The EU also needs high funding for research in the future - and funding needs to be sufficient to
63
attract R&I companies.
If more and more excellent research is done outside of Europe, it becomes more and more important
57
for Europe to cooperate with the rest of the world.
The framework conditions for R&I in the EU need to be kept supportive, and investors need to be
52
attracted and invited.
It is almost unavoidable given demographics. The question is whether the EU can stay a leader with
25
its proportionally much smaller resources at hand.
It will become challenging for Europe to be home to leading companies. The EU will face choices:
18
dependence or autonomy; R&I to be enable to choices or as a traditional cultural pursuit et al.
With the development of the education system and the markets in emerging countries companies of
4
developed countries are going to increase their investment in R&D in these locations.
EU research is still of high quality. Innovation is the problem: it is inhibited by fragmented legislation
1
and risk reluctant investors. Appropriate incentives for industrial EU policy is priority

319
15.15 Anti-technology movements play a decisive role in shaping research agendas in the EU

Number of respondents: 96

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Anti-technology movements are fueled by the rise of populism. 47
In democratic societies all kinds of movements could play a role, but ideally science itself plays a
42
more decisive role in policy making in general.
If we consider climate change scepticism as part of this, then we can already see this taking place in
27
other advanced economies.
There is already considerable influence of anti-technology movements on the EU R&I research
21
agenda.
Anti-technology movements will fuel non-technological innovation (e.g. in transport or energy) and
13
boost growth and jobs as well.
Let's hope not! 12
Anti-technology movements are and remain focussed on limited issues. As a general political
11
movement, they are well past their prime.
Anti-technology movements are rather focused on ICT, as a reaction to Internet addiction. 6

The anti-technology movements accentuate the emergence of the new industrial revolution. 6
Anti-technology movements are to be taken seriously: they can make researchers look through other
6
lenses at societal worries and needs.
There are no organized anti-technology movements. 2
Anti-tech movements will be a key force in any new breakthrough where the benefit of technology
2
cannot easily be explained to the citizien (genomics, nuclear etc.).
Information is often filtered (indipendently from the media) and seeking at the source directly it is
2
possible for high educated people, hard/extremely hard for medium- and low-educated people.

320
Average: 3.74 Dispersion: 1.32

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
A more transparent communication of scientific research results is required. 43

This is rather a matter of education - education policies have to be adapted. 28


There is a confusion between anti-technology and citizen engagement. Anti-technology poses risks
17
for the relevance of EU policy.
More citizen participation for the definition of research priorities. 15
Transparency is essential and at the same level of importance is the choice of a proper
communication in order that all can understand the topic. More panel discussions with the people are 11
needed.
The EU framework programme should become the basis for a pro-technology movement. 10
A significant debate is needed on how the digital industrial revolution will change the role and rights of
9
citizens in the 21st citizens as well as its impact on what it means to be human
One needs to see less politics, less bias, and higher efficiency in funding relevant research, in
9
management authorities across the EU. Public trust has to be earned, not bought or coerced.
Each technological choices should be democratically chosen 1

321
322
16. Working Conditions & Employment

Statement Statement No. Average Dispersion Time Category


no. resp. Significance Significance
16.1 In developed countries, the average working 32 4.04 0.89 Uncertain
time (time spent at paid labour) is 40%
shorter than in 2016 due to increased
productivity (ratio of output to inputs used
in the production process).
16.2 The use of artificial intelligence and robots 32 4.10 0.82 Uncertain
causes 30% of current jobs to disappear
(jobs that existed in 2016).
16.3 25% of the EU workforce is unemployed. 30 3.76 1.43 Uncertain

16.4 The retirement age is 75 in all EU countries. 32 3.81 1.37 Uncertain

16.5 More than 40% of the European workforce 28 3.58 1.35 Uncertain
are freelancers (by choice or need).

16.6 Globally and professionally managed human 26 3.20 1.26 Uncertain


work clouds make up 40% or more of all
teams in science and business.
16.7 The work of consumers (original designs, 27 3.41 1.63 Uncertain
customization), along with the emergence
of 3D printing redefines manufacturing
industries.
16.8 Affordable systems using artificial 26 3.60 1.36 Later
intelligence provide legal and financial
advice so that they replace the services of
more than 50% of the bankers, lawyers and
other employees working in legal and
financial advice organizations (compared to
2016).

323
16.1 In developed countries, the average working time (time spent at paid labour) is 40%
shorter than in 2016 due to increased productivity (ratio of output to inputs used in the
production process)

Number of respondents: 31

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
In fact at least dual systems develop with privileged workers working few hours and being paid well
17
and a new proletariat being overworked and paid below decent pay.
There is a trend to mix working time and leisure time (e.g. citizen innovation). This results in longer
16
working times.
Productivity gains will not be reflected in shorter working time, but rather in increased consumption. 12

Several studies show that in fact shorter time leads to productivity gains. 12
Key dimensions of "work" will change. Paid labour may be reduced but entrepreneurship will grow as
11
many voluntary ways of working with indirect benefits.
Political change is necessary to increasingly value off-work activities (e.g., volunteer or community
9
service, parenting, etc.)
The effective working hours may decrease but time at work may increase to include the need of
7
supervising intelligent systems.
Productivity gains will not result in shorter working time as a smaller work force will have to provide for
7
a greater number of inactive people due to demographic change.
This is desirable but value systems and inertia will collude to make this impossible. 6
Less available work will be thinly distributed across larger populations, resulting in shorter working
1
times.
The overall "working hours" are increasing due to long commuting time, as some people enjoy living
1
in the coutryside, while their place of work is in town.
In some fields of work, productivity is not (and cannot be) increasing. Due to unplanned immigration in
1
recent years, there is a loud call for so-called "simple jobs" to accomodate unskilled work force.

324
Average: 4.09 Dispersion: 0.84

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Research on the social acceptance of inequalities in pay, lifestyles, working conditions, access to
20
leisure and culture becomes fundamental..
Research on quantity and quality of jobs is essential for policymaking on social inclusion in our
17
democracies.
Research on work values is needed 9
The adoption of less working hours in R&I is important because research is already a stressful
7
profession.
The research activity is hard to measure in hours. Policies should support different ways of
6
measuring and comparisons.
Indirect benefits of work, such as pensions, health insurances etc. has to be re-planned due to
5
changes in the paid labour working model.
Hyper-competitive environment in research needs to change 3

325
16.2 The use of artificial intelligence and robots causes 30% of current jobs to disappear (jobs
that existed in 2016)

Number of respondents: 30

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Other jobs might be created. 24
New jobs will be created. What we need is more creativity about what people's jobs will mean in the
18
future.
Job titles change very fast already. 30% in 10 years is not unlikely. 11

Less people in the EU countries means less workpower - robots are a long-term solution. 8
The problem is not AI or robots, but the marketisation of healthcare, social care and other types of
6
work.
This is the assumption of a well-known study by a consultancy. 5
What AI can/cannot do can be discussed at length. Usually the future reality is rather different from
3
the images created now.
When AI (bots) and also physical robots take more and more tasks and responsibilities, they will not
2
need public healthcare, education etc. All job markets will be privatized, well, automatically.

326
Average: 4.10 Dispersion: 0.88

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Research on the evolution of labour, reytraing and lifelong learning is required because of the
22
potential explosive aspects of having a large population in situations of social exclusion.
The impact on the welfare state should be researched. 16
The use of artificial intelligence by industries may lead to abuses and this requires adapted
15
regulation.
Job creation is a task of industry, but policies have to pave the way. 8
R&I policies should be linked to education policies, because this means our education system should
8
change dramatically
R&I programmes may need to address new professional categories than "researchers". 6

Research on tasks to machines has to be leveraged to redistribute wealth 3

327
16.3 25% of the EU workforce is unemployed

Number of respondents: 29

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Many people will still go to work when receiving a basic income, as latest tests have shown - it is just
more likely they will choose a job they are interested in instead of being forced to earn money 12
somewhere.
There are many controversies about how unemployment is counted and although the rate of 25% will
12
not be reached in official statistics it may actually be reached in reality.
We need to find a new definition for 'employment'. Today, volunteers (home care by relatives, trainers
11
in local sports clubs) do not count for the work statistics, but still contribute to society.
New Zealand currently discusses the introduction of a citizens benefit wage - Ireland is starting the
discussion too, Finland tested it, and Kenya has a project on it. With a basic income, the definition of 9
"unemployed" will change.
Maybe we need to find an alternative system to capitalism. 7
Technologies will replace many jobs, half of all citizens will only survive by a „citizens benefit wage“, a
6
kind of universal basic income
I'm convinced that Europe cannot afford a 25% unemployment rate. Therefore I assume that if
unemployment increased beyond a given threshold, EU would take containment actions to avoid risky 5
levels.
Shorter working hours will replace both "employment" and "unemployment".
4
There will be a larger share of renters, but lower than 25%.
The share of working age population not in employment is already higher than 25% if the inactive are
3
also considered.
Citizens on social benefits is no solution at all! 3
Would be very bad times indeed. If this points at losing jobs due to digitisation, I think many new jobs
1
will be created replacing lost ones.
Maybe the percentage of active work force, or just the active segment of the society is the more
1
important number. Participation of any kind in society is the crucial number to monitor.
If this includes the idea of paying unemployment benefits to 25% of the people, this figure may not be
1
sustainable for multiple reasons..

328
Average: 3.76 Dispersion: 1.43

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
A new definition of "unemployment" is needed. 14

New forms of welfare model have to be tested (social experimentation). 14

Policies have to be researched and developed to avoid unemployment by providing new solutions. 12
Research on "unemployed people outside statistics" and "working poors" becomes important as these
6
are 2 categories of citizens disappearing from the classical radar of market and democracy.
Research on a basic citizen income needs to test how unemployment can be moderated. 5

329
16.4 The retirement age is 75 in all EU countries

Number of respondents: 31

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
The demographic change is a great challenge. Our Western societies are ageing, the younger
22
generations who are supposed to pay the rent are getting smaller and smaller.
We should shift from the concept of "retirement age" to an assessment of a person's ability to do their
16
job (which should vary according to job type).
Retirement age will have to be flexible, depending on health, the willingness to contribute to a 'GDP'-
14
based economy, and other factors.
This will create a lot of problems for working class people in jobs where physical exhaustion, damage
10
to health etc. is a reality; not everyone is a university professor!
Old people become a very strong voting force in most EU countries and determine greatly the
8
outcome of elections. Their influence is contested, although not effectively, by younger generations.
Pension reforms are usually adopted with long transition periods, therefore an increase of the
4
pensionable age for approximately 10 years will take a long time to materialize.
Flexible retirement becomes a trend. Finland recently introduced the early partial retirement concept,
3
which will enable people to retire smoothly. Final retirement age may easily go up.
A new study says the same - because of the increasing student loan debt, rising rents and millennials’
3
approach to money management.

330
Average: 3.88 Dispersion: 1.29

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
The EU retirement system should also ensure the continuance of social integration among older
17
people and their families.
EU programmes should aim to engage retired scientists and engineers in creative communities of
12
citizens innovators.
The main issue is the extent to which the rapid changes in the age structure of populations can be
11
managed in ways that maintain the relatively high levels of intergenerational solidarity in EU countries.
If people are to retire at a personalized age, then a set of incentives has to be offered to attract those
8
being willing and able to continue working and really do so.
We need to define what retirement age is. Usually, the chronological age is used as a benchmark.
6
However, it is not aligned with the retiree's biological and cognitive age.
How can we keep the pension system affordable? 4
EU R&I policies should work towards identifying how changes to the retirement age will affect
3
disproportionately more working class people, women etc
More real time health checking would be needed, boosting IoT solutions development 2
Well-designed social science research projects would be needed to underpin several, related domains
1
of policy-making and analyse socio-economic impacts.

331
16.5 More than 40% of the European workforce are freelancers (by choice or need)

Number of respondents: 26

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
Engaging with freelancers or self-employed is cheaper for traditional employers and service users. 15

Technology and infrastructure increasingly permit such organization of work. 13


Businesses are turning to the web to scout and hire talent because it’s faster and cheaper to hire
7
freelancers than go through the traditional hiring process.
In the States, over 53 million Americans freelance, accounting for a third of the U.S. workforce alone.
7
By 2020, this number is expected to increase to 50% of the labour force.
Yes, as the risk is increasingly individualized. 4
SME's are probably more attractive - the administrative chores of being a freelancer are a hindrance.
4
Cutting 'red tape' might be worthwhile.
Freelancing also comes with the benefit of flexible working hours. 3
National borderlines are part of the traditional model to control work, including power of governments
2
and unions. Borderless Europe and globalization will drive freelancing.
Unless the private employers change their mind, often a person aged 50+ laid off for different
2
reasons can find his/her self-employment the only solution while waiting for retirement.
Europe has a unique social protection system for employees, so we need more SMEs and large
2
companies. Freelancers are unprotected.
Freelancing is usually just another euphemism for insecure work. 2

332
Average: 3.61 Dispersion: 1.36

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
It will turn around the way we work today - there must be policies around the social aspects of
21
freelancing. There is the danger that freelancers become a new kind of impoverished class.
Research should be conducted to develop a novel model for ensuring appropriate working conditions,
17
taxation arrangements and social security in a society that is based on self-employed / freelancing.
Regulation for an adequate payment even for freelancers is needed. Otherwise, there will be no effort
9
in research and innovation because a large part of the workforce is busy with trying to survive.
The EU R&I policy delivery mechanism would need to change: e.g. "money follows researcher" may
7
need to be expanded; rules of participation may need to facilitate freelancers etc.
There has to be an implementation of a "social salary" 2

333
16.6 Globally and professionally managed human work clouds make up 40% or more of all
teams in science and business

Number of respondents: 23

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
We do not want human work-clouds, we need safety, security and a stable life - to establish a family
16
is impossible with this lifestyle. Hopefully, the 40% will never happen.
Human work-clouds are easier and more flexible to organize and to handle for the employers. 9

This is just a catchphrase to define precarious lives. 8

Properly used, human work-clouds allow for a better work-life balance. 8


Workclouds provide a suitable way to mix competencies with higher efficiency and to fulfill
6
employees' needs for personal development
We already know from observations that some of these catchy concepts are extremely short-lived. 4
The share of 40% is too high as there will be ever more tasks that can't be done "in the cloud".
3
Standardized work will be automated anyway.

334
Average: 3.21 Dispersion: 1.33

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Legal questions arise from this topic: when should an independent worker actually be classed as an
14
employee?
Research upon work-life balance in case of human workclouds is key to understand how such
9
working-lifestyle can be managed in a such a way that increasing quality of life is not hampered.
Regulation is needed: Who is allowed to manage human work clouds? 7

Problems need to be address when they arise. Anticipated problems are endless. 4

335
16.7 The work of consumers (original designs, customization), along with the emergence of 3D
printing redefines manufacturing industries

Number of respondents: 27

No. of
Arguments for time of realization
votes
3D printing allows consumers to print (produce) their own products. 16
3D printing is already beginning to redefine the after-sales "servicing" sector. 14
3D printing counters globalisation as production on the spot becomes cheaper than
12
traditional production, in addition to being more personalised.
Co-creation is becoming the dominating paradigm, this means that users and producers
12
are more and more the same persons and jointly produce something.
It is unlikely that 3D printers would do away with the advantages of large assemblies of
7
industrial robots any time soon.
3D printers will redefine the way design functions, and may lead to the emergence of a
4
strong design sector.
Co-creation and 3D-printing do not re-define anything. They just complement and
3
augment what has been the status quo for some time now.

336
Average: 3.41 Dispersion: 1.63

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
R&I policy can foster the new industries of 3D printing. 17

Ownership of open innovation needs clarifications also in case of 3D printing. 10

Citizen and consumer policy gives the power back to the citizens. 6
EU R&I policy will become more efficient as links between Research and Innovation are likely to be
5
strengthened by a wide spread of 3D printing.
Research into developing the educational system to deliver the needed MINT, engineering and
5
design skills on a broad basis is needed.
EU R&I policy should focus on the understanding of 3D printing within population. A 3D knowledge
5
divide would lead to increasing inequalities, reflected in income inequalities and social unrest.
Considering the limitations of 3D-priinting in terms of materials used, the logisitic and marketing
3
should precede learned guesses about the fantastic possibilities that it eill/might open.

337
16.8 Affordable systems using artificial intelligence provide legal and financial advice so that
they replace the services of more than 50% of the bankers, lawyers and other employees
working in legal and financial advice organizations (compared to 2016)

Number of respondents: 25

Arguments for time of realization No. of votes


Self-learning systems are able to conduct professional service tasks alone in areas
like law, science, and financial services; and they are cheaper, more reliable, free of 15
biases … etc.
Such artificial intelligence systems are already giving advice in financial services. 14
Artificial intelligence develops strongly but commercial abuses and greed also lead to
12
disasters like the 2008 crisis. Regulation is needed.
The digital disruption has come closer for these professions: For the future it means
7
that the qualifications for these jobs need to be adapted to the new digital challenges.
It will also impact in other industries, like drivers and transportation etc. 5
"Human advice" will not vanish. It will be of better quality once machines do
4
standardized, repetitive part of the work.
Systems like IBM's 'Watson' are improving very fast. They might soon be trusted
3
more than 'human advice'.
In 2016 the first robot-lawyer has been hired in the States by one of the country’s
2
biggest law firms. The robot will assist with bankruptcy cases.

338
Average: 3.62 Dispersion: 1.44

No. of
Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy
votes
Research work on the social, cultural, political and economic limits of artificial
20
intelligence is very much needed.
The challenge for tomorrow's workplace is an increase in inequality in employment and
pay chances and the question of how to ensure adequate training and qualification for 11
the most affected workers.
Regulation is needed to define the limits of the systems - what are they allowed to
10
provide, e.g. advice only or decisions, signatures, send out official letters…
Multi-discipline research is needed. Isolated technology, economics, sociological etc.
8
research cannot solve the issues.
"Artificial intelligence" is already gradually superseded by "Augmented Intelligence",
5
indicating the role of people is needed but a lot of routine work will be automated.
As these systems will replace lawyers, scientists, bankers etc., policies are needed that
3
support the creation of new jobs to avoid unemployment.
It is necessary to realize that artificial systems can be of great help, but they never can
replace the human expert. The simple reason is that they cannot think in the proper 2
meaning of the word
Public-private partnerships between the EU and the resented “tech elite” companies
1
could be one solution.

339
340
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OPEN DATA FROM THE EU


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non-commercial purposes.
The foresight study Beyond the Horizon: foresight in support of
future EU Research and Innovation Policy (BOHEMIA), aims to
support the deliberations on future Commission proposals for a
post-2020 Research and Innovation Framework.
The BOHEMIA Delphi statements are not meant to provide a broad
overview of ‘all things to come’. Taking a cue from the scenarios
developed in the report "New Horizons: Future Scenarios for
Research and Innovation Policies in Europe", they were meant to
peer deeper into relevant science and technology, societal issues,
and R&I practices.
This document presents the data from the Delphi survey. The
survey took place on line in May-June 2017.

Studies and reports

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