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Roxas, Kyle Miguel E.

AB Foreign Service & FS301


International Political Economy
Jumel G. Estrañero
March 5, 2018

The love-hate relationship for colonizers


The relationship between these countries is built from camaraderie. History itself bore
witness to what great things this connection has brought to both governing bodies. What has
been described as a special relationship is now ceasing to exist. Yet as we look back it has never
been challenged – the relationship, it has been the part of life for both races to coexist and
acknowledge the unity between them. Even after learning that these Americans once treated us
as slaves before becoming our teachers, adapting us to religion and education, we accepted them
and adored them for helping us against the colonizers before them. It has never been hard to
understand that we lay below them in power, number, and economic influence making us garner
their innovations, and adorn their science breakthroughs. This was never hard because we know
we owe a lot to them, we cannot deny the need for assistance to salvage our growing economy.
Nevertheless we must keep in mind that change is the only permanent thing in the world. Thus
the coming of the end of this partnership, because on October 20, 2016, the President of the
Philippines announced a "separation" from the United States, both militarily and economically,
in favor of alliances with China and Russia.

Even after past Presidents’ efforts with the bilateral relationship it has not yet to stop his
advances to a more independent state. Former President Arroyo stressed the close friendship
between the Philippines and the U.S. and her desire to expand bilateral ties further, receiving the
support of counterpart President Bush to the Global War on Terrorism. The ten-year pact (EDCA
– Enhanced Defence Co-operation Agreement) was signed between the U.S. President, Barack
Obama and the Philippine President, Benigno Aquino III, allowing United States to increase
military presence in the Philippines. The Joint US Military Assistance Group handed over
weapons to the Philippine Marine Corps. these equipments were formally accepted by PMC
commandant Major General Emmanuel Salamat after the delivery during a transfer ceremony on
5 June amidst the Marawi Crisis moving Manila much closer to the United States, due to China’s
growing assertiveness in the South China Sea. Though there were attempts later on by the
Aquino administration to repair ties with China, but because of the filing of a South China Sea
case it had so poisoned the relationship that few in Beijing saw good prospects for better Sino-
Philippine ties until a new president took office.

So what has really been the key factor to this sudden change of comrades? It all started
when Former President Obama expressed his concern over the human right issues cascading the
current Philippine administration. Thus President Duterte’s comeback calling him “son of a
whore” that resulted to the cancellation of meetings between the two leaders, he said his anger
was also tied to a series of incidents since taking office, including misinterpretations of his
insults, criticism of his actions as president, as well as perceived threats to cut assistance. These
factors only strengthened his belief that Beijing is the better partner for Manila rather than
Washington. A few weeks later President Duterte suggested that the American special forces to
cease its operations and leave Mindanao.

As of October 2016, despite Duterte's shift of foreign policy to China from US, Filipinos still had
low approval and trust rate in China compared to the US which continued to hold high trust and
approval ratings. Duterte later said after the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election that he will stop
quarrels with the US, following President-elect Donald Trump's victory paving way to the
reconciliation of both nations. Considering that remittances are vital to
the Philippine economy, accounting for approximately 9.8% of GDP in 2015. They are an
important source of income for many Filipino families. The United States has long permitted
Filipinos to work in the U.S. as teachers and nurses. About 3.4 million do so. One of the main
sources of Philippine remittances comes from, of course, the U.S. Business process
outsourcing (BPO) is also very important to the Philippines economy, something U.S. firms have
invested heavily in the Philippines. According to CNBC, it accounts for roughly 6 percent of
GDP. The U.S. economic impact would most likely be minimal, in the short term, in comparison
to the effect on the Philippines. The changes to access to resources, tax credits and preferential
custom tariffs on U.S. controlled industries could be harmful.

A realignment of ties with China is a insult to the U.S., as Washington had established the
Philippines as their pillar of foreign policy ambitions to acquire a firm position in the Pacific
Century. The Duterte administration has yet to officially send a notification of termination of
relations to Washington, which signals to some that it could be nothing more than a PR stunt in
an attempt to make new friends meaning that it is only for show, because as an effect of this
“separation” China has invested approximately 590 million pesos towards the rehabilitation and
betterment of the Philippines. With this, President Rodrigo Duterte still ensures that he balances
his relationship with mentioned countries, because after this investment and upgrade of
connection with China, he came back and renewed a more understanding and respecting
relationship with the U.S.

This relationship has been considered “Asia’s Most Toxic Relationship” due to the fact
that even though they strive to outwit each other they still continue to acclaim a healthy
interconnection for other countries to witness. I also believe this relationship is toxic but it is
utmost necessary for the Philippines because it is in a dilemma. Fortunately as we look into
recent events, we are in a considerable good spot right now because of President Duterte, we are
receiving investments from China to rehabilitate Marawi, whilst still having our age-old
connection with USA. Having the odds in our favor, China’s predominant principle is
Confucianism always for amicable and ethical resolutions than raging an all out war, although
they seem to radiate a more dominant side of them, peering into something our country is not
ready for if ever our President “idiotically” chooses to wage war against them. It is also with
sympathy to admit that the loss of our complete reign over the disputed territory is due to the fact
that we have failed to establish a formidable society and order within our government. Whilst we
were confronting corruption cases against our own governing officials other countries were
expanding their territories and garnering adequate resources for their own. Thus other non-
claimants became increasingly vocal about their concern regarding the rising maritime dispute
which led to their security ties with the United States.
The Philippines is the first country to take China to court over these maritime disputes
which clearly defined the overall texture of their relationship. It was not a battle of lawyers, but
astute strategists. Luckily we have who I consider the most lionhearted president in the history of
the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte. He salvaged what’s left of our reputation. He opted to
becoming allies with the Chinese governing body than facing them head-on knowing it will be
an absolute loss for the Philippines, it also opened better economic opportunities for us,
politically too. It established the joint forces of China and PH in exploration of the Scarborough
Shoal. With what happened here it is high time for the Philippines to focus on fortifying its
position on the ground, enhancing its own defensive prowess, and recalibrate its national security
strategy towards a more concrete and tangible way of defending its territorial integrity. President
Duterte renewed the Philippines’ commitment to pursue stronger relations with China and noted
the steady deepening of the bilateral ties since he assumed office in 2016. The Chinese leaders,
on the other hand, responded positively to their counterpart desiring more cooperation between
the Philippines and China and expressed their willingness to support the Philippines’ various
socio-economic and security programs, including the campaigns against illicit drugs, terrorism,
poverty, and others.

China has been very vocal about not wanting to have a trade war with the U.S.
nevertheless they will still defend their nation’s interests. Trade tensions between the world's two
largest economies have risen since Trump took office in 2017 following the announcement of
President Donald Trump’s decision to put on tariffs on Chinese products. He believed that
enforcing these tariffs will safeguard American jobs, backing his America First policy.
Negotiations and mutual opening of markets were the best ways to resolve these trade frictions.
His administration has said the United States mistakenly supported China's membership in the
World Trade Organization in 2001 on terms that have failed to force Beijing to open its
economy. It has become one of the most obvious clichés in international politics; the United
States and China have the most important bilateral relationship in the world. What is not so
obvious is the nature of that relationship, that the countries are neither friends nor foes.
Diplomatic and U.S. business sources say the United States has all but halted any formal
mechanism for talks on commercial disputes with China because it is not satisfied Beijing has
met its promises to ease market restrictions. Adding to the differences is that they do not share
any overriding security interests or political values, and their conceptions of world order
fundamentally clash. Numerous issues in East Asia are causing U.S. and Chinese interests to
collide more directly. Yet the two countries are not really adversaries, either. They do not see
each other as implacable ideological or security threats. And the fact that their economies are so
deeply intertwined makes both countries hell-bent on avoiding conflict.
The remarkable expansion of Chinese power and the global financial crisis that ravaged
the economies of the United States and Europe have accentuated the sense that the West is
declining and the rest are rising. The gap between U.S. and Chinese power, which was already
narrowing before the financial crisis, has since closed further. In 2007, the United States’
economy was four times as large as that of China; by 2012, it was only twice. China also urged
the United States to drop its “Cold War mentality” and not misread its military build-up. Its came
as Trump weighs a series of trade actions against Beijing, including a decision in a “Section 301”
investigation into China’s alleged theft of intellectual property, expected in the next few weeks.
Making China portray itself as a champion of global trade in the face of Trump’s “America
First” policies, despite criticism from foreign businesses, and their governments, that many parts
of its market are protected from foreign competition it did not help that critics also say Chinese
industrial policies seek to assimilate and supplant foreign technology. The comeback of the
Chinese heads started when they accused the United States of “presumptuous speculation” about
China’s intentions, and said it has always adopted a restrained attitude towards the development
of nuclear weapons and kept its nuclear forces to a minimum.

As I have mentioned the rising conflict amongst the South East Asian countries has made
China and US clash more often than everyone would have liked. The Philippines is not an
exemption, more so adding to the boiling relations of the two. With our shift of allies it has made
US a lot restless as they saw us as their emissary in their pavement towards the south east
territories. Nevertheless, other Asian countries are shifting allies too, but not towards China.
They chose to build ties with the US after China’s claim of other maritime territories.

A trade war between the US and China seems about to erupt. India may find trade and
non-trade barriers rising in both superpowers and will need to steer its way carefully through the
two-way gunfire. America’s main trade target is China, with whom they had a trade deficit of
$375 billion in 2017. China has so far tried warning Trump about possible retaliation while
trying to talk its way out. Now that Trump seems intent on trade war, China can meekly
surrender or retaliate. It will very likely retaliate, since its leadership hates to lose face. It is now
economically strong enough to seriously hurt the US. China is a big importer of US soybeans,
maize and meat. If it shifts these purchases to other countries, US farm producers— a powerful
lobby— will suffer. China has warned India to slash its trade surplus with the US. In
Washington, Indian and US officials have agreed to trim the trade surplus based on comparative
advantage. India has agreed to step up its imports of all three. But Trump has warned he will
demand much more. India is too weak to stand up and retaliate. It should smile, try to pacify
Trump, and limit the damage. What should India do in such circumstances? It certainly must not
take the lead in forging an anti-US front with China. Its strategic relationship with the US needs
to be nurtured, even if that is painful.

I feel like all these bilateral and multilateral relationships are always based on mutualism,
each one benefits from the other. The Philippines shall retain its relationship with the US, the
age-old connection gave us solidarity and a confident that is powerful enough to heed our need if
we ever get into war. As for Philippines and China, the ever so charming President Duterte
should balance this relationship, neither independent nor dependent. He should maintain this
stance where he ensures the national interest is pursued amidst the connection with the US. As
for US and China, I believe they should come to terms before a lot of lower ranked countries
suffer more because of their trade war. India is considered a maritime powerhouse thus the
reason why US regarded them as allies but they should be more careful towards these two
superpowers because they might get into a war their country will not benefit from.

If the relationship of all these countries stay as they are I think it will be a more disastrous
future for all South East Asian countries. Why? China will never stop pursuing territory and
resources albeit the court decisions against it. It will be a more toxic international platform for
the Philippines, nurturing and saturating the RP-PRC relationship will never really compensate
for the hunger of China for power against the US. I believe we should establish deeper ties with
other countries that are against China.
I wish for the Philippine Government to continue the balancing of relations they are
performing now. It will be the best strategy to a more prospered future for our country. Although
they should cleanse the government of officials that pursue their own interest more rather than
the betterment of the country. They should establish a better president, even better than President
Duterte. Whilst ensuring that they provide an acknowledgeable education; acknowledged by the
international stage so the Filipinos will be able to establish a more credible status as
professionals and skilled workers and improving the maritime and aerial defenses to avoid the
instigation of further complications with neighboring countries that might claim Philippine
territory again. We should instill the diplomatic stance we need to avoid warfare against other
countries whilst showing fangs to those who belittle our jurisdiction and capability as a country –
mixture of hard and soft approach.

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