ABSTRACT

THE ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCING FACTORS ON SELECTING

ROUTE OF BALI MANDARA TOLL ROAD

The Bali Mandara toll road is intended to improve the accessibility and
to reduce traffic congestion existed on the arterial road of bypass Ngurah Rai.
In addition, the neighbour society may benefit from the construction of the toll
road. This toll road connects among three main locations of southern Bali
Island (i.e. Nusa Dua), South Denpasar District (i.e. Benoa) and Ngurah Rai
International Airport.
The primary data is obtained from the survey by distributing
questionnaires to motorists in these three main locations (i.e. Nusa Dua, Benoa
and Ngurah Rai Airport). The questionnaire consists of several items including
socio-economic variables and road user's perception towards the use of Bali
Mandara toll road.
This study employs a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to analyse
the influencing factors on selecting route of Bali Mandara toll road. In addition,
a logistic regression model is constructed to investigate the proportion of route
selection on either Bali Mandara toll road or the aterial road of bypass Ngurah
Rai. The model are constructed in accordance to these three surveyed locations
as follows:
a. To/from Benoa:
p
ln [(1−p)] = 3.136 -0.548.X1(1) +0.016.X2(1) +0.561. X2(2)-0.817. X3(1)-2.012. X4(1)
-1.048. X4(2)+2.873. X12(1)+2.145. X12(2)-5.500. X13(1)-4.207. X13(2)
b. To/from Ngurah Rai Airport:
p
ln [(1−p)] = 0.678 -0.302X2(1) -0.163.X2(2) -0.070. X2(3)-1.217. X3(1)-1.486. X4(1)-0.760.X4(2)
+1.047. X12(1)+1.188. X12(2)-0.927. X13(1)-1.132. X13(2)-0.795. X13(3)
c. To/from Nusa Dua:
p
ln [(1−p)] = 2.607 -0.206.X1(1) -0.649.X2(1) -0.330. X2(2)-0.628. X2(3)-0.778. X3(1)-1.290.X4(1)
+0.184. X10(1)-0.107. X10(2)-4.352. X11(1)-1.680. X11(2) )-1.086. X11(3)

The study found that the influencing factors of motorists to select route of
Bali Mandara toll road to and from Benoa are convenience in using the toll road
(neutral/ X12(1)), the security of using the toll road (neutral/ X13(1)) and the
security of using the toll road (satisfied/ X13(2)). For motorists to and from
Ngurah Rai Airport, the contributing factors consist of the monthly income is
less than IDR 4 million (X3(1)), the average daily of travel distance is less than
10 kilometres (X4(1)) and the average daily of travel distance is between 10-20
km (X4(2)). For motorists to and from Nusa Dua, the influencing factors are the
average daily of travel distance is less than or equal to 20 km (X4(1)) and safety
in using the toll roads (not satisfied/ X11(1)).

Keywords: Toll road, Route selection, Logistic regression